COMMENTARY TURKEY AND THE : 2014 AND BEYOND

Turkey and the European Union: 2014 and Beyond

JOOST LAGENDIJK*

ABSTRACT It seems likely that in 2013 Turkey and the EU will restart technical negotiations on one or more chapters. A real breakthrough, however, can only be expected in 2014, after the German elections and after the EU has regained the confidence that the current euro crisis can be overcome. Turkey for its part first needs to successfully conclude the fundamental reforms it has started on the Kurdish prob- lem and in writing a new constitution. Revitalized accession negoti- ations after 2014 will be further complicated by the debate on a new EU architecture that should reflect the growing divergence between a further integrated euro zone and those member states that wish to keep their national currency. When and if the EU decides to recon- figure itself into an organization that operates with different speeds, Turkey will have a better chance of being accepted as a member.

fter two years of growing frus- cally inspired opponent of Turkish tration on the Turkish side EU membership. Besides, restarting Awith a total lack of progress the official talks between Turkish and in its EU accession negotiations and European bureaucrats on a new and the sheer lack of interest on the part quite challenging chapter will end, of key EU players, 2013 seems to at least for the foreseeable future, the be the year in which Turkey can at speculation that when faced with an least make some modest steps for- ongoing impasse it was time to stop ward again. After France announced the entire project. it was willing to unblock one of the five chapters (regional policy) that During her visit to Turkey in Feb- * Columnist were declared untouchable by then ruary, the restart got the blessing of at Zaman and President , the tech- German Chancellor Today’s Zaman nical part of the accession process who stressed, once again, that, al- and a former member of can be resumed. The French deci- though personally she is still not in the European sion is symbolically important for favor of Turkey’s full membership, Parliament two reasons: It shows that, unlike his the accession negotiations should be Insight Turkey predecessor, President Francois Hol- continued. On top of that, there are Vol. 15 / No. 2 / lande is not a committed, ideologi- indications that maybe in the course 2013, pp. 47-55

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of this year a second, previously fro- at all in the mood to make substan- zen chapter could be opened as a tial concessions. result of new French flexibility or a change in Cypriot calculations. Still, under somewhat veiled pres- sure from the EU (for instance as an For the moment, the impact of the undeclared part of the financial res- election of Nicos Anastasiades to cue operation), Anastasiades might the Cypriot presidency on Turkey’s be willing to lift the Cypriot veto on EU path is hard to determine. On the energy chapter, a crucial element the one hand, Anastasiades did sup- in future Turkey-EU relations and, port the for the reunifi- moreover, a move that could bring cation of the island in 2004 (as did some relief to the growing tensions the Turkish Cypriots and Turkey), between and Turkey about the exploitation of the recently found gas reserves off the shore of the divid- The opening of new chapters ed island. and the conciliatory speeches coming out of Paris, Berlin A Shifting Balance and maybe Nicosia are all The opening of new chapters and the indications of a shared feeling conciliatory speeches coming out of inside the EU, that it is better Paris, Berlin and maybe Nicosia are all indications of a shared feeling in- to keep the process going side the EU, even among opponents of Turkish full membership, that it is better to keep the process going and it is also true the center-right and see what happens in the future politician is a strong supporter of than to pull the plug now and break eventual Cypriot membership of off negotiations. That would be diffi- NATO, which can only happen if cult anyway on the EU side because Turkey does not use its veto. On the to do so requires unanimity among other hand, the first priority of the member states, and with ongoing new president will be to strike a deal strong support for Turkey’s accession with the EU on an aid package to in countries like the UK and Swe- prevent the island from going bank- den that is not very likely to happen. rupt. Only after that hurdle has been Turkey itself could of course decide taken would he be able to dedicate it has had enough of all the Euro- some of his time to finding a creative pean foot dragging. It is true that in way to overcome the stalemate in parts of the Turkish media and in the reunification talks. In doing so, many tea houses such a suggestion he, undoubtedly, will be aware of the has been welcomed by frustrated fact that most Greek Cypriots, in- Turks who believe that their coun- cluding his coalition partner, are not try is doing fine outside the EU and

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don’t want to be seen as beggars in both sides, will have to wait for 2014 front of a closed European door. But or after. with so many other urgent and sensi- tive issues on its agenda, it does not Such a genuine restart can only hap- seem very plausible that the Erdoğan pen after the German parliamentary government would want to rock the elections scheduled for September of EU boat any time soon. Despite the this year, and after the EU manages to occasional anti-EU rhetoric in An- outline a convincing plan that deals kara, which has been full of anger with the still unresolved effects of the and disappointment, the ruling par- euro crisis, taking into account the ty knows very well that cutting ties rise of popular resistance against the with the EU would have enormous current dominant austerity policies. and unforeseen consequences for the Turkish economy, domestic political With another six months to go, it is balances and Turkey’s standing in the hard to predict the outcome of the region. The Turkish government also German elections but it seems as realizes that the current cautious rap- if Angela Merkel will continue as prochement is a result of the aware- chancellor. The only change will be ness in European capitals that since her coalition partner: most proba- the start of the negotiations in 2005, bly the Social Democrats will replace relations between Brussels and Tur- the Liberals. That might have an ef- key have changed quite dramatically fect on Germany’s policy on Turkey’s in Turkey’s favor: the EU is in much EU membership, but the change will worse shape than it was eight years not be revolutionary and it will take ago while Turkey has done very well, time for the new foreign minister to both economically and as an indis- make his or her mark. From a Turk- pensable ally in the efforts of the US ish perspective, a new Red-Green and Europe to deal with post-Arab government in Berlin would defini- Spring North Africa and the Middle tively make a big difference, but the East. Why spoil these gains by giving current opinion polls indicate that up on EU membership now? an end to the Merkel years is not very likely. The German Elections The Euro Crisis For all these reasons, 2013 will be the year of some gradual but symboli- It is even more difficult to forecast cally important improvements in re- the outcome of the extremely com- lations between Turkey and the EU. plicated efforts inside the EU to come A real breakthrough, meaning the up with the right financial, econom- opening of all blocked chapters by ic and institutional answers to the the EU after the unambiguous decla- problems facing the euro zone. In a ration of a new commitment to full recent speech, Olli Rehn, vice-pres- membership at the end of the road by ident of the

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and responsible for economic and tioned policies (budget cuts, rising monetary affairs and the euro, pre- unemployment) and the loss of na- sented a sketch of the contours of tional sovereignty is on the rise. In the euro zone and the EU ten years addition, the EU is in danger of being on. According to the soft spoken but split into countries in the north that determined Finn, the EU will have to are afraid they will have to pay the bill meet three main challenges. The first for their mainly Southern European is to create sustainable growth and re- colleagues that need EU help to sur- verse the trend of European losses in vive economically. global competitiveness. The second is fiscal sustainability, pushing back Until there is some sort of consen- high public debts that have a negative sus, across geographical and political impact on economic dynamism. Fi- borders, about a even-handed and nally, the third and most immediate fair package for all euro-zone mem- challenge is to rebuild the Economic bers, the EU will not be in a position, neither mentally nor politically, to turn the page in its dealings with The EU is in danger of being Turkey and enthusiastically welcome Turkey in its midst. My guess is that split into countries in the it will take at least till the end of 2014 north that are afraid they will before the EU will have put togeth- er a set of plans that is effective and have to pay the bill for their has majority support. That might mainly Southern European also produce the confidence and the colleagues that need EU help political determination that is need- ed to make a substantial move in to survive economically speeding up Turkey’s EU accession process.

and Monetary Union, the framework for the euro. That includes setting up Visa Policy a banking union and other mecha- nisms that will limit taxpayers’ ex- Focusing on the possibilities and posure to future problems in the challenges of opening up new chap- banking system but will, inevitably, ters in the technical negotiations entail a further sharing of budgetary should not distract us from the sovereignty by the member states of highly political core of the accession the EU. process. Most Europeans and Turks, including their elected representa- It is an illusion to think that all these tives, do not base their opinion on reforms will be accepted and imple- Turkey’s EU membership bid on the mented smoothly. In many EU coun- details of any particular chapter. Far tries the opposition to the short-term more important are practical obsta- repercussions of the above men- cles experienced by many, such as the

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EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton (L) and Turkish Foreign Minister take their places for a press conference after the third Turkey-EU Ministerial Political Dialogue Meeting. AFP / Bülent Kılıç

current visa regime or issues related visa-free travel for people from the to democracy, rule of law, minority Western Balkans. That is, from coun- rights and other topics covered by the tries that have not even started the Copenhagen criteria. In that sense, EU accession process. much could and should be done to prepare for a revitalization of the But change might be under way. At membership talks. the end of 2012, the European Com- mission initiated a similar procedure The single most discouraging prac- for Turkey, albeit full of conditions tice that convinces Turks that, at and without a clear deadline. The the moment, the EU is not serious Brussels executive realizes that the about membership are the humiliat- Turkish accusation of double stan- ing procedures Turkish citizens who dards, although often misused to want to enter the Schengen zone or cover up Ankara’s own responsibil- the UK for a short stay have to go ity for hiccups in the accession pro- through. Instead of stimulating per- cess, does make sense in the case of son-to-person contact, academic ex- visas. Besides, pressure from Euro- changes or commercial cooperation, pean courts to change is mounting the cumbersome system discourages as well. Already in 2009, the Europe- Turks from traveling to EU member an Court in Luxembourg ruled that states. In Turkish eyes, the EU added obliging Turkish service providers to insult to injury when in recent years buy a visa is not compatible with the Brussels implemented a system of provisions of the 1963 Association

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start of the talks in 2014. In the spring The Brussels executive realizes of 2013 Turkey is right in the middle of two potentially ground breaking that the Turkish accusation of developments that could fundamen- double standards does make tally change not only the domestic sense in the case of visas architecture of the country but also its relations with the EU: the efforts to solve the Kurdish problem through direct negotiations with the impris- Agreement between Turkey and the oned leader of the PKK, Abdullah predecessor of the EU and the 1972 Öcalan, and the attempt in the Turk- Additional Protocol. Dutch and Ger- ish parliament to write a new civilian man courts have since confirmed this constitution that is in line with Euro- view. Member states’ governments pean standards and practices. are resisting the implications of these rulings but they know there are limits If Turkey could manage to complete to their obstruction and one day the both processes successfully this year, present visa regime will have to be the country would, all of a sudden, abolished. Of course Turkey should belong to those countries that have deliver on its part of the proposed shown they are capable of solving deal and ratify and implement the so- long-standing problems in demo- called Readmission Agreement with cratic and peaceful ways. Add to that the EU that forces Turkey to take the upcoming judicial reforms that back all illegal migrants to the EU will probably lead to a considerable coming from or through Turkey. decrease in the number of impris- oned journalists, academics, politi- For the moment there is deadlock cians and activists, and Turkey will be because Turkey is afraid some EU a different country in the beginning member states will always block any of 2014. It would be hard for the op- visa liberalization, even if Turkey has ponents of Turkey’s EU membership done its bit. Still, as part of the gener- to keep on arguing that the country is al improvement in relations, this lack not ready or is not willing or able to of trust could be overcome, and 2013 further reform its institutional set-up and 2014 might be the years in which or basic laws. many ordinary Turks will experience very concretely that their country is indeed getting closer to the EU. Many Uncertainties

I have been referring to some big ifs Fundamental Reforms in describing a possible scenario for the next 12 months. Nobody knows But it is not only the EU that could the outcome of the German elections, create a more positive environment the plans of Cypriot President Anas- conducive for a comprehensive re- tasiades or the flexibility of both the

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EU and Turkey on the visa issue. It currency and are willing to integrate is even harder to produce a forecast further, economically and politically, of the outcome of the breath-taking and a second tier of member states domestic initiatives on the Kurdish that wants to keep their own cur- problem and the constitution. rency and is opposed to giving up sovereignty other than what is nec- Add to all these uncertainties the essary for the proper functioning of extremely volatile situation in Syria the internal market. It seems the only where, for the moment, Turkey and way to keep the UK inside the EU, the EU are trying to cooperate close- knowing that a large majority of Brits ly despite differences on how best to does not want to give up the pound, support the anti-Assad rebels, and the and, when asked, would vote against impossibility of predicting the reper- further integration with the rest of cussions of the Turkish presidential the EU. Some sort of associative EU elections in August 2014 and the im- membership might be the best option pact of a new AKP prime minister in for the UK and all other European the likely case of Erdoğan becoming countries that want to be part of the president. The outcome of all these EU but not of the integrated core. events and developments will deter- mine whether 2014 will be like 2013, This debate will take some time and a year of modest improvement, or the nobody has found the perfect solu- year in which a fundamental restart tion yet. Many questions are still will be made because the conditions unanswered: Will there be just two on both sides are met. speeds or will there be a further dif- ferentiation or a so-called “variable geometry”, meaning member states A Two-speed EU can choose between several degrees of integration? If the euro is the ba- To make things even more unpre- sis for the core group, what do the dictable in the medium term, a fun- countries of the second tier have in damental debate has just started on common, apart from the internal how to reorganize the EU when it is market? How will the institutional faced with a growing gap between the framework (for example the Euro- majority of EU member states that pean Parliament and the European has or will join the euro zone, and a Commission) be arranged to deal minority (the UK and Denmark, at with these different speeds? Can the least for the moment) that does not EU still develop a common foreign aspire to do so. The exact outcome of and security policy when one of the that European soul searching is again leading countries in this field, the hard to predict but it looks very likely UK, is not a member of the integrat- that eventually the EU will be trans- ed core? formed into an organization that operates with two different speeds: a A new EU treaty to regulate this two- core of member states that share one speed EU seems inevitable but many

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While Turkey could governments are afraid that asking be moving closer to their citizens’ opinion on the new the EU after 2014, the arrangements, either because their constitution obliges them to do so EU itself has become or because they are under growing a moving target, pressure to open up European de- albeit one that, seems cision making to democratic scru- tiny at the national level, will pave easier to reach for a the way for increased support of the more democratic and populist opponents of the EU. It’s the main reason so many political leaders prosperous Turkey across the EU are reluctant these days to express themselves about the new EU architecture and instead try to present the necessary improvements cated that they want Turkey to copy to save the euro as only small adapta- the British example and keep the tions of existing treaties. These efforts Turkish lira. If Turkey sticks to that to reform the EU by stealth and with- position at the end of the negotia- out public debate or referenda has tions that will automatically mean it had, not surprisingly, the opposite will opt for the second, less integrat- effect because it fuels the suspicion ed tier. Like the Brits, Turkey would among many European citizens that, then also not join the Schengen once again, they will be excluded Agreement on free travel and might from important decisions in Europe look for a similar list of opt-outs from that will influence their daily life in other policy areas. the decades to come. It seems logical that such a Turkish All this matters to Turkey because choice to keep its distance from the the outcome of this debate will deter- integrated euro core would make mine which kind of EU Turkey will Turkish EU membership easier to be joining somewhere between 2020 accept for countries such as Germa- and 2023, if and when of course the ny, France and Austria that are and possible restart in 2014 is followed will remain part of that core. There by years of successful legal alignment might, however, be a problem of tim- and democratic reforms in Turkey ing. Decisions on whichever reorga- and by a gradual acceptance inside nization of the EU will not be made the EU that Turkey’s membership before 2017, taking into account that will be beneficial for both partners. an inescapable treaty revision could only happen after the establishment of a convention consisting of nation- Turkey and UK al and European politicians in 2015, and could only enter into force after Both Prime Minister Erdoğan and a positive vote in several national ref- President Gül have repeatedly indi- erenda. As a result we may be talking

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2017 or 2018. In the meantime, Tur- So while Turkey could be moving key has to prepare for full member- closer to the EU after 2014, the EU ship in the EU as we know it today, itself has become a moving target, including the obligation to accept the albeit one that, eventually, seems eas- euro as the common currency. This ier to reach for a more democratic poses all kind of transitional prob- and prosperous Turkey that wishes lems that can only be addressed with to combine the benefits of EU mem- a willingness to compromise on both bership with the flexibility it needs to sides. operate in other parts of the world.

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