Is the Worst to Come? The Dangers of ’s Climate Inaction

Marcus Arcanjo

January 2020

Introduction

While Australia has long suffered from extreme weather events, their intensity is increasing due to the rapidly warming climate. In such a large and geographically diverse country, it would seem obvious that accounting and planning for should be at the forefront of dialogues and policymaking. However, profits and politics are currently beating both science and rationality when it comes to decision-making. Continued governmental support for environmentally detrimental activities like coal mining and over-extraction of water is compounding the multitude of ecological challenges confronting Australians today.

This paper explores the current state of climate change, leadership and politics in Australia and how each are shaping climate policy there. With the country currently battling destructive bushfires – understood to be driven in part due to climate change – it seems that now would be a suitable time for the national government to take the climate crisis seriously. That does not seem to be happening, however. This paper supports the view that the current trends in rainfall, ocean warming, extreme heat, and bushfires are exacerbated by climate change, linked to increases in CO2 emissions. It also highlights the policy failures of the Australian government, which has instead doubled down in its backing of industries that are compounding the root problem. Finally, it supports the findings of prior research that has called for fossil fuel divestment and the implementation of more ambitious climate policies.

A combustible climate

Australia’s vast size, and the diversity of its landscapes, renders the country especially vulnerable to the changing climate. The 2018 State of Climate report, authored by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and Bureau of Meteorology, illustrates this and highlights growing concerns.

First, rainfall in Australia is highly dependent on weather cycles such as El Niño, La Niña, and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In southeast and southwest Australia, rainfall between April to October has fallen.1 In in the northeast, meanwhile, not seeing rain for many months is becoming increasingly normal, with some regions remaining in states of drought for several years. In the north of Australia, by contrast, rainfall has increased across all seasons. Moreover, analysis of weather station records shows a higher proportion of total annual rainfall coming from heavy rain days, suggesting an increase in rainfall intensity. CSIRO expects total rainfall to increase on heavy rain days by around 7 per cent for every degree of warming.2

Secondly, Australia’s oceans are changing significantly. Sea surface temperatures have warmed by around 1C since 1910, with eight of the ten warmest years on record occurring since 2010.3 The increase in frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves is having catastrophic effects on Australian ecosystems. Most notably, the Great Barrier Reef is seeing extreme coral bleaching – a stress response that occurs when warm water breaks down the relationship between coral and the single-celled organisms they require to live. Mass bleaching in 2016 caused 30 per cent of all coral to be lost, with marine scientists blaming this on climate change and a strong El Niño event.4 Such occurrences have enormous implications for marine life as well as Australia’s tourism industry.

Finally, and perhaps most significantly, there have been major changes in extreme heat and fire weather. While it is true that high temperatures and bushfires are certainly not a new phenomenon, there has been a long-term increase in extreme fire weather and in the length of the fire season since the 1950s.5 In the summer of 2012-13, 123 weather related records were broken in a 90-day period. Intense heatwaves, incredibly hot individual days, and bushfires scorched the nation for several months. This period become known as the ‘angry summer’ and was then thought to be an anomaly.

In 2018, Carbon Brief carried out an extensive analysis of recent climate research to determine differences between 1.5C and 2C of warming. They concluded that, under a 2C warming scenario (considering that we are already in line for more than 1C), the frequency of warm extremes – defined as an annual daily maximum that would be a 1-in-20-year event in the current climate – is expected to rise by 406 per cent in northern Australia and 234 per cent in southern Australia.6

The summer of 2018-19 then eclipsed that of 2012-13. In a report titled The Angriest Summer, the Climate Council concluded that 206 records were broken in a 90-day period. These included: the hottest summer on record for the Australian continent, the hottest January on record for every state except , and the single hottest temperature, recorded at 49.5C (121 Fahrenheit) in Port Augusta, .7 Several towns saw staggering levels of heat for long periods throughout the summer. In Cloncurry, Queensland, the temperature was above 40C (104 Fahrenheit) for 43 consecutive days while Marble Bar experienced 32 days above 45C (113 Fahrenheit).8 Severe bushfires were experienced in every state.

Australia is now once more seeing waves of devastating fires across the country. At the time of writing, bushfires had killed at least 23 people and around 480 million animals, destroyed over 1,300 homes, and burnt an area roughly twice the size of Belgium. The navy and 3,000 reserve troops have been sent to save thousands of people living in towns where it is too late to evacuate by land. The apocalyptic scenes have seen thousands of people stranded on beaches and seeking refuge in boats, with the sky painted red with smoke. It has been estimated that the CO2 emissions from this smoke is roughly equivalent to 66 per cent of Australia’s annual emissions.9

Less obvious are the implications for human health. In recent days, air pollution in Canberra and were many times above the hazardous level. Any reading above 250 micrograms per cubic meter of the air pollutant PM 2.5 is considered hazardous if one is exposed for over 24 hours. For a period of time, Canberra’s air quality reading was above 7,000.10 Such dangerous levels can increase the chances of respiratory illness, heart attacks, strokes, and many other negative health effects.11

While the extreme heat is thought to be driven by a climate system in the Indian Ocean, it is widely accepted – including by a coalition of former fire chiefs – that these impacts have been made worse by climate change. Long periods of drought, combined with winds of over 80mph, have led the fires to spread much faster and last much longer.12 The fires started in September and are expected to end in April. Worryingly, with many weeks left of summer, people have been warned that the worst is yet to come.

Meanwhile, the response of Australia’s leadership to this growing disaster – and to climate change more generally – has been heavily criticised.

Failures of leadership

In light of its position as a rich, developed country, Australia’s climate policy is underwhelming at best and virtually non-existent at worst. In 2018, Prime Minister Scott Morrison abandoned the country’s key policy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, a move that many viewed as akin to dropping its commitment to the Paris Agreement altogether.13 The policy in question, the so- called National Energy Guarantee (NEG), was aimed at ensuring electricity companies would have to meet certain emissions targets. By dropping this, Morrison opted to focus instead on reducing the cost of energy. Morton (2018) notes that the NEG was a modest policy but one that could win political support and, indeed, had the support of the business community.14 Currently, Australia is targeting a 26-28 percent reduction in emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.15 This has been widely criticised for not being ambitious enough. Even with low targets, the latest projections show Australia is expected to miss them, with reductions of only 16 percent.16

The 2020 Climate Change Performance Index ranks the nations accounting for over 90 per cent of global emissions. Countries are analysed on greenhouse gas emissions, renewable energy, energy use, and climate policies in order to determine an overall score. Australia ranked 56th out of 61. To make matters worse, the nation finished rock bottom on climate policy, with a score of 0 out of 100. According to the report, “Australia receives the lowest rating in this year’s Climate Policy rating as experts observe that the newly elected government has continued to worsen performance at both national and international levels.”17

Such comments echo the 2018 Emissions Gap Report by the UN. This noted that “there has been no improvement in Australia’s climate policy since 2017 and emission levels for 2030 are projected to be well above the NDC [Nationally Determined Contribution] target. The latest projection published by the government shows that emissions would remain at high levels rather than reducing in line with the 2030 target.”18 Even under such critical scrutiny, Australia has continued to maintain the narrative that it will meet its target.

The country’s contributions (or lack thereof) in international climate talks have also been widely censured. Silent at COP 24 and unhelpful during the heated debates surrounding the acceptance of the IPCC report, Australia has not put its best foot forward in this arena – criticized in as well for providing “tacit support for the four oil allies: the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait.”19

At COP 25 in December 2018, the watered-down outcomes of the talks were again disappointing. Likewise, Australia stood out once more as the only country seeking to utilise a ‘loophole’ from previous climate change treaties. The Kyoto Protocol – the predecessor of the Paris Agreement – allowed countries to gain credits by beating targets. Australia plans to use these credits – unrecognised by every other nation – to tackle 90 percent of required emissions cuts, meaning that an actual reduction in current emissions is unlikely.20 Meanwhile, Australia, alongside Brazil and the US, was heavily criticised for blocking further meaningful progress at the talks.

The current bushfire crisis has highlighted the failures of leadership in the country when it comes to addressing climate change and, beyond the obvious devastation caused by the flames, is proving to be a public relations disaster for the government. For the first few weeks, Morrison failed to publicly acknowledge the fires at all. He downplayed the situation, even joking that volunteer firefighters could, at least, enjoy watching the national cricket team play over the summer. Those same volunteer firefighters then had to crowdfund the necessary money for their equipment after the prime minister rejected the idea that they should be paid, even though many have been away working for weeks.21 This perhaps unsurprisingly caused an enormous backlash, and the decision was made to provide some compensation for volunteers, albeit on a temporary basis.

Compounding matters, Morrison next decided to take a beach holiday to Hawaii in the middle of this national crisis. His team at first denied that he was on holiday, claiming that he was instead enjoying a well-earned break. When the news broke that two volunteer firefighters had tragically died tackling the fires, Morrison had to state publicly that he would be returning as soon as possible from the holiday he had spent all week denying. The result has been growing public disgust with how the broader situation has been handled. Indeed, the prime minister’s recent visits to fire ravaged towns have had to be cut short due to anger among residents regarding his perceived lack of action.22

Throughout the crisis, Australia’s government has actively sought to avoid the discussion of climate change in relation to the blazes engulfing communities up and down the country.

A heated debate: Australian climate politics

Climate change and environmental degradation have become politically heated – and at times divisive – topics. This is especially the case in Australia. The current administration there has shown no real desire to engage in meaningful climate talks and has instead hindered progress at the international level. Even now, as horrific bushfires rage across the country capturing the world’s attention, climate change appears far down the government’s agenda.

Australia’s fire chiefs, the experts with experience serving on the frontlines, all agree that climate change is making bushfires across the country deadlier and the fire season itself longer. In November 2018, a coalition of former Australian fire chiefs stated that they had been trying since April to meet with Prime Minister Morrison to discuss the devastation expected in the coming fire season, only to be shunned; the government “fundamentally doesn’t like talking about climate change”, was the explanation.23

At around the same time, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack rejected the link between climate change and bushfires, maintaining that those affected “don’t need the ravings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital city greenies at this time” – further suggesting the expression of sympathy and understanding for the victims instead.24 In December, as the fires raged on, the former chiefs announced that they would hold an emergency summit following the current bushfire season to help tackle climate change and come up with new strategies to fight fires in the 2020-21 season.25 It is expected that the Prime Minister will not attend.

Throughout this period, the government has stood firm with regard to its approach, while announcing that it would not make “reckless” cuts to the coal industry. Herein lies much of the problem. Phasing out pollution from coal is widely accepted as a necessary step to reduce emissions, meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and, ultimately, keep temperature increases as low as possible. Australia, however, is a nation heavily reliant on coal. According to the International Energy Agency, the country ranked third in the world for coal production in 2017, behind China and the US.26

The official justification for coal lies in the economic value it is supposed to bring Australia, both via exports and employment. Government figures show that around 38,000 Australians work in the industry, and as a result it continues to be heavily supported. Public opinion, however, has shifted. Each year, the Australia Institute produces a Climate of the Nation report that tracks the changing attitudes of the public to climate change. To ensure broad representation, respondents are drawn from different states and age groups. With the passing of each year, there has been an increase in levels of concern about climate change and related energy issues.

Indeed, a full 78 per cent of Australians expressed concerned that climate change will lead to water shortages in cities, up from 67 per cent in 2017 and 72 per cent in 2018.27 Water insecurity is already a major problem, with prolonged droughts and strict water usage rules in place. Despite this, and in the midst of the current crisis, a new water mining agreement was finalised at the end of December. This deal allows a Chinese company to extract 96 million litres of water per year for a staggering 94 years.28 This project in Cherrabah, Queensland – a region with already severe drought conditions and which is at extreme risk of running out of water entirely – is expected to cause long-term damage to the local groundwater and aquifer system. Some estimates suggest the annual recharge to be around 40 million litres, less than half the agreed extraction.29

Energy is another issue. The Australia Institute report found that 73 per cent of Queenslanders want coal-fired power stations phased out, either as soon as possible or gradually.30 Despite this, a controversial new coal mine was approved for Queensland in 2019. The Indian owned Adani company was given the green light to begin extraction of up to 60 million tonnes per year for 60 years.31 This is concerning for several reasons. Firstly, estimates indicate that emissions from burning the coal extracted could amount to around 77 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Secondly, coal extraction relies heavily on water. Around 250 litres of freshwater are needed per ton of coal produced.32 In a time of high water stress, this could be disastrous for the region. Finally, this is the first major project to allow extraction in this largely untapped and coal-rich area. There are fears, therefore, that this could open the floodgates to many more such mining projects.

A 2018 report by HSBC titled Our Fragile Planet, using data from the International Disaster Database and the World Bank, conducted analyses on 67 countries to establish those most vulnerable to climate change.33 Notably, Australia ranked 9th most vulnerable on energy transitions – the highest of any developed economy. However, the report found that this is not the result of a lack of adaptive capacity. Rather, it concluded that Australia, alongside Norway and New Zealand, were actually best placed to respond to a changing climate.34 This suggests that it is a lack of political will, more than anything else, that is hindering climate action in the country.

Conclusion

In terms of its climate policy, Australia is continuing down a dangerous – or at the very least highly irresponsible – path, both for itself and the planet. Whereas the IPCC’s Special report on warming of 1.5C (2018) mentions Australia 36 times,35 the country’s government has instead taken backward steps – with few signs of reconsideration.

The decision to go ‘back to black’ – i.e. to double down on coal – by increasing support for the country’s environmentally detrimental coal industry is a regressive step. Numerous studies have shown how a climate-compatible, green economy could yield both economic growth and prosperity, but the Australian government does not seem to be seriously exploring such a shift – vital if both the country and the world is to avoid the worst effects of climate change. At the same time, the argument that fossil fuel companies provide employment on a mass scale and should therefore continue to be supported is increasingly less credible.

This is particularly true when one considers that tourism and agriculture – two economically beneficial sectors that are extremely sensitive to shifts in climate – receive far less support, for example. According to 2017 figures, the Great Barrier Reef alone generates AUD 5-6 billion (around $3.5-4.3 billion) annually. However, at 2°C of warming, current projections show a greater than 99 per cent loss – and yet the government continues to do very little by way of prevention.36 Moreover, the implications of failing agriculture far exceed mere financial losses. With prolonged droughts, there is a very real possibility of massive food and water shortages in the decades ahead.

The have once again sparked intense debates around climate change, discussions in which the country’s leadership appears to want no part. This state of affairs is unsustainable, both politically and otherwise, and cannot continue for much longer. National and global condemnation of how the present crisis – and indeed Australia’s approach to climate change more broadly – is being handled is mounting. Recent events have also caused a spike in tensions between the government and much of the Australian public, with growing numbers of citizens demanding change. With a further rise in temperatures and increasing number of high fire weather danger days predicted,37 the flames currently engulfing swathes of Australia may simply be a glimpse of worse things to come should the country fail to take substantive climate action.

Marcus Arcanjo is a Research Fellow at the Climate Institute. He holds an MSc in Development and Security from the University of Bristol and a BSc (Econ) in Business Economics from Cardiff University

References

1 CSIRO & the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 2018. State of the Climate 2018. Available at: https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/state-of-the-climate

2 Ibid

3 Ibid

4 Ibid

5 Ibid

6 Carbon Brief . 2018. The impacts of climate change at 1.5C, 2C and beyond. Available at: https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/impacts-climate-change-one-point-five-degrees-two- degrees/?utm_source=web&utm_campaign=Redirect#

7 Climate Council. 2019. The Angriest Summer. Available at: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/wp- content/uploads/2019/03/Climate-council-angriest-summer-report.pdf

8 Ibid

9 Paul, Sonali. “Australia's Leaders Unmoved on Climate Action after Devastating Bushfires.” Reuters, Thomson Reuters, 7 Jan. 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-bushfires- climatechange/australias-leaders-unmoved-on-climate-action-after-devastating-bushfires-idUSKBN1Z60IB.

10 Remeikis, A. January 2nd 2020. Canberra chokes on world’s worst air quality as city all but shut down. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/03/canberra-chokes-on-worlds-worst-air-quality-as- city-all-but-shut-down

11 The New York Times. January 3rd 2020. Millions of Australians are Choking on Smoke from Wildfires. Available at: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/01/03/climate/australia-fires-air.html

12 BBC. January 4th 2020. Australia fires: Strong winds hamper efforts to control flames. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50992323

13 Morton, A. 2018. Australia has no climate change policy – again. Nature. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06675-9

14 Ibid

15 BBC. January 2nd 2020. What is Australia doing to tackle climate change? Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50869565

16 Ibid

17 Burck, J; Hagen, U; Hohne, N; Nascimento, L; Bals, C. 2019. Climate Change Performance Index – Results 2020. Climate Action Network, Germanwatch & New Climate Institute. Available at: https://newclimate.org/wp- content/uploads/2019/12/CCPI-2020-Results_Web_Version.pdf

18 UNEP. 2018. Emissions Gap Report 2018. P.12. Available at: http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?isAllowed=y &sequence=1

19 Doherty, B. December 9th 2018. Australia’s silence during climate change debate shocks COP24 delegates. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/10/australias-silence-during- climate-change-debate-shocks-cop24-delegates

20 Slezak, M. 2019. Climate talks at COP25 a ‘disappointment’ as Australia gets special mention. ABC News. Available at: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-16/australia-climate-carry-over-credits-slammed-cop25/11793818

21 Davidson, H. 10th December 2019. Scott Morrison rejects calls for more bushfire help, saying volunteer firefighters ‘want to be there’. The Guardian. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/10/scott- morrison-rejects-calls-for-more-help-saying-volunteer-firefighters-want-to-be-there

22 BBC. 2nd January 2020. Angry residents berate PM Morrison in blaze-ravaged town. Available at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-50973232

23 Zhou, N. 14th November 2019. Former Australian fire chiefs say Coalition ignored their advice because of climate change politics. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/14/former-australian-fire- chiefs-say-coalition-doesnt-like-talking-about-climate-change

24 Ibid

25 Cox, L. 16th December 2019. ‘Hugely disappointed’ emergency chiefs to hold bushfire summit with or without PM. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/dec/17/hugely-disappointed-emergency- chiefs-to-hold-bushfire-summit-with-or-without-pm

26 International Energy Agency. 2017. IEA Atlas of Energy – Coal Production Data. Available at: http://energyatlas.iea.org/#!/tellmap/2020991907

27 Merzian, R; Quicke, A; Bennett, E; Campbell, R; Swann, T. 2019. Climate of the Nation 2019. Tracking Australia’s attitudes towards climate change and energy. The Australia Institute. Available at: https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Climate%20of%20the%20Nation%202019%20%5BWEB%5D.pdf

28 Smee, B. 1st January 2020. Queensland government was warned about risks of Chinese company’s water extraction. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/02/queensland-government-was-warned- about-risks-of-chinese-companys-water-extraction

29 Ibid

30 Merzian, R; Quicke, A; Bennett, E; Campbell, R; Swann, T. 2019. Climate of the Nation 2019. Tracking Australia’s attitudes towards climate change and energy. The Australia Institute. Available at: https://www.tai.org.au/sites/default/files/Climate%20of%20the%20Nation%202019%20%5BWEB%5D.pdf

31 Slezak, M. 15th August 2017. Why Adani’s planned Carmichael coalmine matters to Australia – and the world. Available at: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/aug/16/why-adanis-planned-carmichael- coalmine-matters-to-australia-and-the-world

32 Ibid

33 Latimer, C. 2018. Australia one of the countries most exposed to climate change, bank warns. The Sydney Morning Herald. Available at: https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australia-one-of-the-countries- most-exposed-to-climate-change-bank-warns-20180322-p4z5n8.html

34 HSBC. 19th March 2018. Our Fragile Planet. Available at: https://www.hsbc.co.uk/content/dam/hsbc/gb/wealth/pdf/1807.pdf

35 IPCC. 2018. Special report on warming of 1.5C. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_High_Res.pdf

36 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2018. Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

37 CSIRO & the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology. 2018. State of the Climate 2018. Available at: https://www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/state-of-the-climate