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Padres Press Clips Monday, December 21, 2015

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Padres betting on Blash’s power potential UT San Diego Lin 2

Padres take advantage of goodwill trip to Japan MLB.com Brock 6

JAWS and the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot: SI.com Jaffe 8

Friar talk: ‘Pen has more questions than answers UT San Diego Sanders 16

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Padres betting on Blash’s power potential Rule 5 selection has been one of the minors’ most accomplished sluggers By Dennis Lin | 3:56 p.m. Dec. 18, 2015 So far this offseason, the Padres have moved on from two notable sources of right- handed power. Left fielder Justin Upton, who a team-leading 26 home runs, is a free agent. Second baseman Jedd Gyorko, who went deep 13 times after the All-Star break, is a St. Louis Cardinal.

Jabari Blash may be an unlikely candidate to replace much of that production, but his new club certainly plans on giving the 6-foot-5 slugger a shot.

A corner from the Virgin Islands, Blash twice switched organizations on Dec. 10.

He woke as a longtime member of the organization, which in 2010 used an eighth-round draft pick on a raw power hitter out of Miami Dade College. By mid-morning, Blash had been selected sixth overall in the by Oakland. Before lunchtime, he had been officially dealt to San Diego, revealed as the player to be named in the Padres’ Dec. 2 with the Athletics.

Blash absorbed the news from the Peoria Sports Complex in Arizona, where he was rehabbing a bruised knee. Then he gathered his belongings and walked across the complex; the Mariners and the Padres share the spring-training facility.

The jump to the majors will be considerably wider. As a Rule 5 selection, Blash must spend all of next season on the Padres’ 25-man roster or else be offered back to the Mariners.

“It was a very exciting day,” Blash said by phone from the Virgin Islands. “I’ve been waiting a very long time for this opportunity.”

Jabari Blash Positions: RF/LF Bats/throws: R/R Height: 6'5"

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Weight: 225 lb. Born: July 4, 1989 in St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands 2015 stats (AA-AAA):.271/.370/.576, 32 HR, 81 RBI Blash, who will turn 27 in July, may seem a bit old for prospect status, but the Padres were more focused on his upside. General A.J. Preller identified Brian McBurney and Wells Oliver, who help the club’s proprietary information systems, as key in the decision to acquire Blash. Publicly, it’s not hard to see why someone would gamble — the claiming fee for a Rule 5 pick is a mere $50,000 — on Blash’s power potential.

Between stints with the Mariners’ Double-A and -A affiliates last season, Blash hit .271/.370/.576 with 32 home runs. He grew stronger as the year progressed, culminating in a 14-homer August, during which he batted .290/.381/.750.

Among all players with at least 200 plate appearances in Triple-A, Blash ranked first with a .640 slugging percentage. He played half his games in Tacoma’s Cheney Stadium, one of the few -friendly ballparks in the .

“Jabari is a guy who was regarded as one of the big power threats in the draft five years ago,” Preller said. “I think that power is playing out in games. ... We were looking to replace a little right-handed power. Hopefully, he can provide that for us.”

The primary obstacle to Blash’s advancement has been a similarly eye-catching propensity for swinging and missing. Last season, Blash had a 27.6 percent rate, in line with his career rate of 29.2 percent.

Two scouts who have seen Blash play each described him as a “specimen” with big pull power and a plus arm, but both expressed concerns about Blash’s ability to make enough contact, especially against major league pitching.

The raw ability, however, is hard to ignore. Last season with Tacoma, Blash’s Isolated Power (a measure of how often a player hits for extra bases) was .376, a career-best as well as the highest of any Triple-A player.

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“It was just letting the power play out, not trying to do too much,” Blash said. “When I get into slumps, when the bunch up, it’s from trying to do too much. Last year was key, figuring out how to focus on putting the ball in play, putting together good at-bats.”

Growing up on the island of St. Thomas, Blash participated in Little League but mostly stopped playing baseball by the age of 14, choosing basketball instead. His senior year in high school, he was brought back to baseball by Darren Canton, who founded a program to teach the sport to youngsters on the island and in some cases pursue college and professional careers.

Largely owing to his physical tools, Blash was twice drafted (in the 29th round in 2007 by the , then in the ninth round in 2009 by Texas) before he went pro with Seattle. More than five years later, he is on the cusp of his first big- league shot.

“It’s great for me to have the opportunity,” said Blash, who received one of his first congratulatory phone calls from fellow Virgin Islander and former Padres Callix Crabbe (San Diego selected Crabbe in the 2007 Rule 5 draft, later returning him to Milwaukee the following May). “There’s not much for kids in the Virgin Islands to look up to. ... Just the fact that anything’s possible, no matter where you’re from or who you are.”

Padres manager Andy Green, who met with Blash at on Monday, compared Blash’s potential career trajectory to that of a former minor league teammate, Dan Uggla. In 2005, Arizona left Uggla exposed to the Rule 5 draft. The next season, the then-26-year-old second baseman debuted with 27 home runs for the and made the All-Star team.

In 2013, Green was managing the Diamondbacks’ Double-A team in Mobile when an imposing figure from the Mariners’ affiliate stepped to the plate.

“He took an Andrew Chafin and hit it up on the berm. Annihilated it,” Green recalled. “He made a big impression on me.”

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Blash primarily has played right field throughout his career, but with that spot occupied by Matt Kemp, figures to see most of his time next spring in left field, where he also has experience. He said he is looking forward to working with new Padres bench coach Mark McGwire, he of the 583 career home runs.

“That’s one of the guys I really can’t wait to meet,” Blash said. “With all he’s accomplished, what he went through, it kind of correlates to my career.”

The Padres acquired three other Rule 5 selections Dec. 10: Luis Perdomo, Josh Martin and Blake Smith. It would be a surprise if more than two of the recent additions stick on the major league roster all season. First, of course, they have to make the team out of .

“From a starting position, he probably comes in behind the veterans we have in the outfield,” Green said of Blash, “but if he shows the bat we think he has, anything is possible.”

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Padres take advantage of goodwill trip to Japan Delegation of front-office members, players made trek to baseball-rich nation in November By Corey Brock / MLB.com | @FollowThePadres | 11:26 AM ET SAN DIEGO -- It makes perfect sense, given Padres general manager A.J. Preller's background, that he wants the organization to be more active in the Pacific Rim.

"It's an area our eyes are always on from a scouting standpoint," Preller said. "What we've tried to do is build a staff little by little and start to get some presence over there. I think we've been able to do that, little by little."

It started last year when Preller hired Acey Kohrogi as an advisor to the Padres' Pacific Rim operations. Kohrogi came to the team with a vast background in the region, having spent 20 years with the Dodgers, many of which came as the team's executive director of Asian operations.

Kohrogi is responsible for establishing and maintaining relationships with the Asian Baseball Leagues, including the Japanese League (Nippon Professional Baseball) and the Japanese Amateur and Industrial Leagues.

Kohrogi's duties also include aiding with scouting and recruiting in the Pacific Rim, as well as facilitating player and roster transactions between the Padres and Asian Professional Baseball teams. Last month, Kohrogi even got to play tour guide, as he helped organize a recent Padres trip to Japan. A San Diego delegation that included Preller, Kohrogi and other front-office staffers and pitchers Brandon Maurer and , spent time in Japan.

"It was awesome. The thing that stood out to me was how smart these kids were as far as the questions they asked," Rea said. "They were 9, 10, 11 years old and they were asking questions I never would have thought at that age."

MLB Japan put on two youth clinics that the Padres participated in -- one in Tokyo and one in Kochi -- with Rea and Maurer handing out pitching tips.

"It was a goodwill trip and a scouting trip," Kohrogi said. "I think it was good for the group to learn about Japan.

"I think when you have 200 Little League players and coaches all wearing Padres caps, it makes an impression." 6

It was also in Japan where Preller and his staff scouted the Premier 12 tournament, which was held in Japan for the top 12 national teams in the world. The Padres also, reportedly, met with third baseman Nobuhiro Matsuda, who is a target.

"It's like a World Cup of baseball," Kohrogi said.

The Padres delegation was in Japan for five days, helping plant some seeds there -- not just in terms of youth baseball but establishing more of a presence.

"I think with A.J. being very international, knowing he's been to Japan with the Rangers, maybe even made 50-plus trips there, he saw that it was important to the Padres to be active there," Kohrogi said.

"This is the first step in getting ourselves more known and more entrenched in Japan."

Preller, who made a name for himself while with the Rangers for his international scouting, said it's very important for the team to have a presence in the region.

"I think it's an area where they play good baseball and people there really love the game," Preller said. "I think it's good for us to give back, share information and run programs that help grow the game.

"I think we had a great few days over there."

Could the Padres see the fruit of their work in Japan soon?

"I think we're prepared. We just want to be in a position if guys come out, that we are ready to make an informed decision," Preller said. "But it's an area our eyes are always on from a scouting standpoint."

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JAWS and the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot: Trevor Hoffman BY JAY JAFFE Posted: Fri Dec. 18, 2015

Trevor Hoffman was the antithesis of the physically intimidating, smoke-throwing . Undersized as a shortstop in high school, he attracted little notice from scouts, and while a growth spurt eventually led to his being drafted, it took a level of desperation for him even to try the mound. There he discovered the ability to throw a mid-90s fastball, but by the time he began to carve out his niche in the big leagues, his velocity was on the wane.

That doesn't sound like a recipe for long-term success, let alone a career that would draw Hall of Fame consideration. But Hoffman's mastery of the opened new doors—and then slammed them shut on opponents. “It's like it has a parachute on it," marveled the Dodgers’ Paul Lo Duca after whiffing on the signature pitch in 2002.

As the closer role evolved into an -at-a-time concern, Hoffman rode that changeup far enough to emerge as one of the game's most proficient and consistent practitioners. Backed by AC/DC's hard-rocking "Hell's Bells," his entry into games became an event unto itself, and he evolved into a franchise icon. In a role with a high turnover rate, Hoffman stuck around long enough to break 's all-time saves record of 478 and become the first pitcher to reach the 500- and 600- milestones, remaining effective well into his 40s.

The closer's job has evolved into an ever more specialized one occupying a smaller footprint of , and the debate over what, if anything, constitutes a Hall of Famer among this class has continued to rage. Only five relievers have been voted into Cooperstown, starting with in 1985. Wilhelm owned the all-time record for saves from 1964 (five years before the stat became official) until '80, when surpassed him. Fingers—whose resumé was burnished by and MVP hardware, not to mention a strong postseason track record— was voted into Cooperstown in short order, though the record he held for 12 years was surpassed in 1992, the year of his induction.

Since then, , who owned the saves record for less than a year, sank without a trace when he went up for election in 2000, and Smith, who supplanted him, has nearly exhausted his eligibility while trying to build consensus. During Smith's wait, two of the role's more revolutionary practitioners—at least in terms of usage patterns, not to mention short-term dominance—gained entry: (2004) and ('06). The former did so on his first ballot, the latter on his 13th. Archetypal smoke-thrower breezed by Smith as well in 2008, his ninth year of eligibility.

Does Hoffman fit within that pantheon? It's hardly clear, particularly as advanced statistics have debunked some of the closer mystique, illustrating the modern-day role's limitations even while attempting to account for the concepts of win expectancy and leverage, the quantitatively greater 8 impact on winning and losing that late-game or tight-spot events have relative to earlier or easier ones. The debate is ongoing, and within my own system, I've changed course more than once while evaluating the aforementioned post-Fingers relievers over the course of a baker’s dozen election cycles. While not entirely sold on Hoffman myself, I do expect that he'll be elected, if not in his first year of eligibility, then relatively soon.

PITCHER CAREER PEAK JAWS W L S ERA ERA+

Trevor 28.4 19.6 24.0 61 75 601 2.87 141 Hoffman

Avg. HOF RP 40.6 28.2 34.4

Hoffman was born in Bellflower, Calif., in 1967, the youngest of three sons of Ed Hoffman, a former Marine and professional singer who worked as an usher at theAngels' Anaheim Stadium and occasionally sang "The Star Spangled Banner" either as a scheduled guest or emergency fill-in. Older brother Glenn (born 1958) was a former second-round draft pick by the Red Sox and spent nine years (1980–87, '89) playing in the majors; he also managed the Dodgers for half of the '98 season.

Like his older brother, Trevor played shortstop at Savanna High School, but at just 5'6" and 130 pounds and with only one kidney (he lost his left one in infancy), he didn't attract much notice from scouts. He grew three inches the summer after graduation, however, and the growth spurt continued as he played at Cypress College and then the University of Arizona; ultimately, he filled out to 6'1", 200 pounds. TheReds drafted him in the 11th round in 1989, and he began his career in the Pioneer League, but neither the .249/.319/.289 he hit that year nor the .212/.311/.277 he hit in the South Atlantic League the following year suggested he had a future in the majors. Charleston manager Jim Lett was impressed enough with his arm strength to recommend he switch to pitching, however, and the move clicked. As Hoffman told 's for a May 13, 2002 cover story:

"I was tired of slumping at the plate and air-mailing throws to first base. The idea was easy to accept. For some reason I couldn't handle the daily grind. I could not take that 0 for 4 and just put it away and move on. Pitching, especially relief pitching, gives you more positive feedback. I needed that."

Able to reach 95 mph with his fastball, Hoffman began dominating hitters. He struck out 75 in 47 2/3 innings of relief at Class A and Double A in 1991, then spent most of '92 at Triple A Nashville. That winter, the Reds left him unprotected in the expansion draft, and Marlins general manager Dave Dombrowski took him with the fourth pick. Hoffman made the team out of spring training and struck out the Dodgers' Eric Davis, the only batter he faced, in his major league debut onApril 6. He made 28 appearances for the team before he was on the move again; on June 24, 1993, he and two other players were sent to the Padres in exchange for and Rich Rodriguez, part of the same fire sale that sent Fred McGriff out of town a month later. 9

Hoffman made 39 appearances for the nowhere-bound Padres, who lost 101 games, and finished the year with a 3.90 ERA (108 ERA+) in 90 innings with 79 strikeouts and five saves.

The 26-year-old Hoffman took over the closer's job the following season—not that he got many save opportunities for a team that stumbled to a 10–31 start. Still, he was successful when given the chance, converting 20 of 23 save opportunities, posting a 2.57 ERA and whiffing 10.9 per nine before the strike hit in early August. A pair of off-season mishaps in which he landed awkwardly on his right shoulder led to the beginning of his decline in velocity, but he attempted to offset that byexperimenting with his grip for his changeup, going from a "circle change" grip to a "palm ball" grip learned from teammate Donnie Elliot. Via ESPN's Buster Olney for a 2006 feature:

He likes the feel of Elliott's changeup, and decides to try it the first week of the season. Immediately, Padres Brad Ausmus sees that hitters can't pick up the ball. After two , Ausmus thinks, "This is going to be a dominating pitch."

No clues distinguish Hoffman's changeup from his fastball. The arm speed is the same, the spin is the same, even the movement doesn't give it away. "It doesn't move down, like a splitter," says Ausmus, who's now with the Astros. "It moves on a straight line, but it just doesn't get there."

It would take Hoffman a while to master the pitch, though his so-so 1995 performance (3.88 ERA, 8.8 strikeouts per nine, 31-for-38 in saves) likely owed more to his needing surgery to repair a tear in his rotator cuff after the season. Healthy, he enjoyed a breakout season in 1996, posting a 2.25 ERA with 11.4 strikeouts per nine in 88 innings. His 3.9 WAR was tops among National League relievers, and his 42 saves ranked third; he received down-ballot Cy Young and MVP consideration and helped the Padres capture their first division title since 1984. They were swept out of the playoffs, however, when Hoffman served up a two-run homer to the Cardinals' Brian Jordan in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the Division Series.

The Padres and Hoffman both regressed in 1997, though the latter still ranked second in the NL in saves (37, for a 76-win team) and WAR (3.1). He put together a career year in 1998, posting a 1.48 ERA over 73 innings, with NL highs in saves (53) and WAR (4.1); he would never improve upon any of those numbers. On July 25, 1998, Hoffman not only tied 's club record by converting his 41st consecutive save opportunity but also entered the game for the first time to “Hell's Bells," a song that became his signature tune. "The entrance was more suited to the World Wrestling Federation than the national pastime," wrote The San Diego Union-Tribune of the occasion.

Alas, Hoffman was unable to break Beck's record: Houston's Moises Alou, who had struck out to end the-record-tying game, homered on his first pitch the following night—the only save Hoffman blew all season. Regardless, his outstanding work resulted in his first All-Star berth and a close second-place finish to in the NL Cy Young voting; Hoffman received more first place votes (13–11) but less overall consideration, perhaps in part because teammate Kevin Brown (18–7, 2.38 ERA, 8.6 WAR to Hoffman's 4.1) drained some of his support. Nonetheless, both pitchers’ performances helped the Padres to their first pennant since 1984. After allowing just one in his seven Division and Championship Series outings, Hoffman served up a go-ahead three-run homer to Scott Brosius in the eighth inning of Game 3 of the against the Yankees. He was thus charged with the blown save and the loss in his lone Fall Classic appearance. 10

In the aftermath of that defeat, Hoffman signed a four-year, $32 million contract extension, making him the game's highest-paid reliever, but the deal came only after the star-studded Padres shed free agents Brown, Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley and traded away Greg Vaughn as well. Stripped of just about every player of interest this side of Hoffman and an aging (whose last season as a regular would be 1999), the team spent the next five seasons below .500, three of them in the NL West basement. Though unable to match his stellar 1998 showing, Hoffman was fairly consistent during the first four years of that stretch, making three All-Star teams and finishing second in saves three straight times; he averaged 41 saves in 65 innings per year, accompanied by a 2.81 ERA (145 ERA+), 10.1 strikeout-per-nine ratio and 1.4 WAR. The latter mark reflects the fact that scoring at Qualcomm Stadium (previously Jack Murphy Stadium) dipped to Petco Park-like levels relative to the rest of the league, so Hoffman's run prevention was not as exceptional as it had been.

On Oct. 16, 2002, shortly after the season ended, the 35-year-old Hoffman underwent surgery to repair another tear in his rotator cuff as well as frayed cartilage in the shoulder. After reporting for spring training in mid-February, he was still battling pain, which doctors soon determined owed to arthritic degeneration of his clavicle; on Feb. 28, he underwent another surgery to shave down the bone. Although the Padres hoped Hoffman could return shortly after the All-Star break, he didn't make his 2003 season debut until Sept. 2. He made just nine appearances that month, none of them in a save situation.

Fortunately, Hoffman returned to form the following season, the Padres' first in Petco. Despite a fastball that now sat in the mid-80s, he continued to vex batters with his changeup, posting a 2.30 ERA (170 ERA+) in 54 2/3 innings, notching 41 saves (sixth in the league) and 1.7 WAR, the latter his highest mark since 1998. The Padres broke .500 for the first time since that year, winning 87 games and finishing third in the NL West, and they won the division title in each of the next two seasons, albeit with paltry win totals of 82 and 88, respectively, not to mention quick exits at the hands of the Cardinals in the Division Series. Hoffman saved 43 games with a 2.97 ERA in 2005, then—after re-signing with the team as a free agent via a two-year, $13.5 million deal—recorded an NL-best 46 saves with a 2.14 ERA in '06. Via the latter performance, he again finished as runner-up in a close NL Cy Young race, though his 2.1 WAR was less than 1/3 that of winner Brandon Webb.

Along the way, Hoffman racked up the milestones. On May 6, 2005, he threw a scoreless ninth inning against the Cardinals to become the second pitcher in baseball history to reach 400 saves. On Sept. 23 and 24, 2006, he tied and then broke Lee Smith's all-time saves record with Nos. 478 and 479, both against the Pirates. On April 28, 2007, he made his 803rd appearance as a Padre, thus surpassing the Senators' and the Pirates' Roy Face for the most with one team. On June 6 of that season against the Dodgers, he banked save No. 500.

Though he saved 42 games in 2007, Hoffman's season ended on a sour note. He blew a save against the Brewers in the Padres' second-to-last scheduled game of the regular season, via which they could have clinched a wild-card berth. They lost that night and the next (without his help), setting up a Game 163 play-in against theRockies, who had won 13 out of their last 14 games to force the tiebreaker. With the score knotted at 6–6, the game went into extra innings. Manager finally called Hoffman’s number after Scott Hairston hit a two-run homer in the top of the 13th inning, but the venerable closer didn't have it. He yielded three straight extra- base hits, tying the game, and after issuing an intentional walk, he finally got his first out, albeit on a sacrifice fly by Jamey Carroll that brought home Matt Holliday with the winning run—at 11 least as home plate umpire Tim McClelland called it, though replays showed that Holliday never touched the plate.

Hoffman claimed there was no link between the unsightly end to his season and the elbow cleanup surgery that followed later that month. Ironically, his robust health in 2006–07 had already triggered a $7.5 million vesting option for '08 via a games-finished clause. He got off to a rough start that year—his age-40 season—by blowing two of his first six save chances and taking a pair of losses over the course of his first eight outings. His performance normalized from that point, but he pitched sporadically in September and finished with just 45 1/3 , a 3.77 ERA (his worst since 1995), 30 saves (his lowest total since '94, save for his lost 2003 season) and a career-worst 0.2 WAR.

With groomed as the heir apparent at closer, the Padres offered the 41-year-old Hoffman (now a free agent) just $4 million for 2009, with a $4 million club option for '10, but they soon withdrew the offer. In mid-January, the Brewers—who were fresh off their first postseason appearance in 26 years—signed him to a one-year deal worth $6 million plus incentives, outbidding the Dodgers in the process. Given the move to a less-forgiving ballpark and the loss of the first 18 games of the season to an oblique strain, Hoffman's age-defying 2009 performance (1.83 ERA, 37 saves, 2.2 WAR) was one of the season's top surprises and arguably his best since 1998. The Brewers didn't make the playoffs, but Hoffman made the All-Star team for the seventh and final time.

Unfortunately, after signing a one-year extension with the Brewers in October 2009, Hoffman looked every bit his age in '10. He finished April with more blown saves (four) than successful ones (three) and carried a double-digit ERA into the second week of June; that cost him the closer's job, mooting the celebration of his 1,000th career appearance (May 23) and slowing the chase of his 600th save to a crawl. He finally collected that milestone on Sept. 7 against the Cardinals, his only appearance in a 23-day span, and pitched just three more times, adding one more save, before season’s end. The Brewers declined their end of a mutual option for 2011, but Hoffman remained open to a return to a West Coast team until January, when he finally announced his retirement.

Mariano Rivera surpassed Hoffman's all-time saves record on Sept. 20, 2011, but the fact that Hoffman was the man to beat is what forms the cornerstone of his Hall of Fame case. He climbed into uncharted territory on the basis of a combination of good health and consistency; like Rivera, Hoffman rarely led his league in saves (twice to Mo's three times) but was among the leaders on an annual basis, with nine top-three finishes and 15 among the top seven—every season except his injury-shortened one and the bookends of his career. Only three pitchers have accumulated at least 10 seasons with at least 30 saves, and not surprisingly, they're the three atop the totem pole: Smith with 10, Hoffman with 14 and Rivera with 15. Raise the bar to 40 saves, and it's Hoffman and Rivera with nine seasons apiece, with Francisco Rodriguez's five as the next- highest total.

Hoffman's save totals and longevity no doubt owe something to his workload, which was relatively minimal compared to his game-closing predecessors—particularly the enshrined relievers—and a product of the evolution of the closer's role. Wilhelm, Fingers and Gossage were all multi-inning firemen who could be counted upon to work extended stints if need be. Sutter worked multiple innings as well, though generally only when his team had a lead narrow

12 enough to produce a save opportunity. Eckersley, who spent the first half of his career as a starter, became the model for the one-inning save machine we know today.

The difference is stark when comparing Hoffman to the enshrined quintet in terms of the length of their saves. For comparison's sake, I'll include fellow Hall of Fame candidates Smith and , plus Rivera as well:

PITCHER SAVES 1 IP <1 IP >1 IP

Wilhelm 228 45 (20%) 35 (15%) 148 (65%)

Sutter 300 82 (27%) 30 (10%) 188 (63%)

Gossage 310 70 (23%) 47 (15%) 193 (62%)

Fingers 341 81 (24%) 59 (17%) 201 (59%)

Smith 478 260 (54%) 49 (10%) 169 (35%)

Eckersley 390 231 (59%) 53 (14%) 106 (27%)

Rivera 652 491 (75%) 42 (6%) 119 (18%)

Hoffman 601 498 (83%) 48 (8%) 55 (9%)

Wagner 422 369 (87%) 17 (4%) 36 (9%)

As you can see, long saves accounted for the great majority for Wilhelm, Sutter, Gossage and Fingers, but they form increasingly smaller shares for the others, including less than 10% for both Hoffman and Wagner.

Because of that inning-at-a-time usage pattern, Hoffman's overall workload—1,035 appearances (11th all-time), and 1,089 1/3 innings—is far short of every pitcher above save for those of Wagner (903 innings) and Sutter (1,042 innings). Hoffman threw 612 fewer innings than Fingers (who pitched in 90 fewer games), 720 fewer than Gossage (who pitched in 33 fewer games) and 1,165 fewer than Wilhelm (who pitched in 35 more games). All three of those pitchers did work as starters for awhile, with Wilhelm making 52 starts and Fingers and Gossage 37 apiece, but 13 even limiting the field to relief innings, 27 pitchers have compiled more out of the bullpen than Hoffman, including Smith (1,252 1/3) and Rivera (1,233 2/3).

While Hoffman's workload was a function of the period in which he pitched, its size puts him at a significant disadvantage when those innings are converted to value via WAR, even given that his 141 ERA+ is higher than any of the enshrined relievers save for Wilhelm (147). Hoffman's 28.4 career WAR is less than half that of Eckersley (63.0) and well behind both Wilhelm (47.3) and Gossage (42.0); it's much closer to those of Fingers (26.1) and Sutter (24.6). Meanwhile, his 19.6 peak WAR trails those of that trio (Eckersley 38.1, Gossage 32.0, Wilhelm 26.9) as well as Sutter (24.6), just beating out Fingers (19.2). Hoffman's 24.0 JAWS, which is tied with Wagner for 20th among relievers, trails all of the Hall of Famers except Fingers (22.7) and is 10.4 points below the standard. Even if I exclude Eckersley from the set on the grounds that his work as a starter skews it, Hoffman is well off the mark in all three categories (35.0 career, 25.7 peak, 30.4 JAWS). There's really no way to justify his inclusion in Cooperstown via JAWS and WAR.

That said, while the version of WAR used in JAWS features an adjustment for leverage to help account for the degree of difficulty, it’s not the only way to measure reliever value. Win Probability Added (WPA) is a context-sensitive measure that accounts for the incremental increase (or decrease) in chances of winning produced in each plate appearance given the inning, score and base-out situation. For a reliever, a single-season WPA scales similarly to a single-season WAR, which is to say that it’s rare that one is worth more than three wins in a single year, by either measure. The good news for Hoffman is that his 34.1 WPAranks second all-time, miles behind Rivera (56.6) but ahead of Gossage (third at 32.5), Wilhelm (fourth at 31.1), Eckersley (sixth at 30.8), Sutter (25th at 18.2) and Fingers (27th at 16.2). The average for those five is 25.8; Hoffman is 8.3 wins above that.

Another way to look at reliever value along these lines is to adjust WPA using a pitcher’s average leverage index (aLI) for a stat variably called situational wins or context-neutral wins (referred to as WPA/LI). Here Hoffman ranks fourth all-time (note the discontinuity of rankings outside the top 10):

RANK PLAYER WPA/LI IP

1 33.7 1,283 2/3

2 Hoyt Wilhelm 27.4 2,254 1/3

14

3 Dennis Eckersley 25.8 3,285 2/3

4 Trevor Hoffman 19.5 1,089 1/3

5 Billy Wagner 18.0 903

6 15.6 917

7 Rollie Fingers 15.2 1,701 1/3

8 Rich Gossage 15.0 1,809 1/3

9 14.7 2,108

10 14.2 1,436 2/3

14 Lee Smith 12.9 1,289 1/3

17 Bruce Sutter 11.9 1,042

The average Hall of Fame reliever (including Eckersley) weighs in at 19.0, just a hair below Hoffman.

Those measures provide a stronger basis for voting for Hoffman than JAWS does, particularly when taken alongside his mountain of saves, seven All-Star appearances and role in helping the Padres to four postseason appearances. That said, since JAWS is what guides my process, I'm not sure that I'm ready to bump a deserving candidate off my (virtual) ballot when I've already got more than 10 competing for its 10 spaces, some of whom have 10- or 15-year maximums or 5.0% minimums working against them. Clear a few of those names off the top (please), allow me another year to research and evaluate whether this system is a better one for handling relievers, and I'll get back to you.

That is, if Hoffman isn't in already. While I have my reservations, the 65 ballots tracked thus far show Hoffman receiving 69.2% of the vote—short of what's needed for election but nothing that can't be made up among what could be nearly 400 more ballots to come. Even if that percentage doesn't rise, a debut above 50% makes Hoffman a lock to get there eventually, with or without my (virtual) support. When he does, his enshrinement will serve to remind that the Cooperstown door remains open to closers of all shapes and styles.

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Friar talk: 'Pen has more questions than answers Padres have yet to unearth replacements for Kimbrel, Benoit By Jeff Sanders | 10 a.m. Dec. 21, 2015 More than a month after dealing and Joaquin Benoit to boost the Padres' farm system, the back of the bullpen remains among the most glaring holes on A.J. Preller's to-do list. Not only has the Padres' second-year G.M. jettisoned the preferred eighth- and ninth-inning options, the 40-man roster lacks relievers with extensive major league experience.

In fact, it is Marcos Mateo who leads that bunch in service time even after appearing in just 26 games in the majors last year, and he is reportedly interested in pitching in Japan in 2016. The Padres would have to work out an agreement with a team.

Beyond Mateo and Drew Pomeranz (who is as much a candidate for the rotation as he is the bullpen), only Brandon Maurer and Nick Vincent have more than two years of service time and Maurer has spent much of the offseason increasing muscle mass for a potential look in the rotation this spring.

SHORT ON EXPERIENCE Service time for bullpen candidates: Marcos Mateo: 2.128 Brandon Maurer: 2.089 Nick Vincent: 2.067 Kevin Quackenbush: 1.136 Odrisamer Despaigne: 1.098 Robbie Erlin: 1.078 Jon Edwards: 0.111 Cory Mazzoni: 0.056 Leonel Campos: 0.032 Jay Jackson: 0.021 Tayron Guerrero: 0.000 Josh Martin: 0.000 16

Luis Perdomo: 0.000 Blake Smith: 0.000 Jose Torres: 0.000 Cesar Vargas: 0.000 Kevin Quackenbush has extensive minor league experience as a closer, while Jon Edwards saved 23 games in Triple-A last season. Of course, both spent more time in the minors in 2015 than in the majors, which is the case for the rest of the bullpen arm candidates outside Odrisamer Despaigne, who seems destined for a swing role of some kind.

Though a triple-digit fastball has led to speculation that Andrew Cashner could be considered for the closer's role, the feeling within the organization is the best version of the 2016 roster would have the 29-year-old right-hander posting near the top of their rotation. As discouraging as his surface numbers were in 2015 (6-16, 4.34), Cashner's strikeout numbers as a ballooned to 8.0 per nine innings, he turned in a career-high 184-plus innings and he recorded his fifth-straight sub- 4.00 FIP.

His batting average on balls in play (.330) soaring nearly 60 points above his 2014 rate (.274) and nearly 40 points above his career average (.292) is one reason to believe a rebound is in order in 2016. Improved defense – if the Padres get that shortstop – could certainly help Cashner right the ship in his walk year.

As far as external bullpen options go, the Padres have been largely quiet as the top free agent options picked new homes. They've been loosely connected to the likes of Tommy Hunter and (incentive-laden considerations), leading some to believe that the team is committed to allowing Petco Park to work in its favor as it builds a low-cost bullpen.

One possibility: Brandon Morrow, who signed a minor league contract last week. Reunited after shoulder surgery finally ended his season, Morrow's potential for greatness helped give him a leg up on Despaigne in last year's push for the fifth spot in the rotation. The fallback was always a set-up role ahead of Benoit (Kimbrel didn't

17 arrive until April) and very well could be again after injury again kept Morrow from turning in a full season. AROUND THE WATER COOLER

 Of the Padres' four Rule 5 pickups, Jabari Blash's power potential is especially intriguing after his isolated power ballooned to .376, the highest of any player in Triple-A in 2015. “It was just letting the power play out, not trying to do too much,” the 26-year-old Blash told Dennis Lin of the Union-Tribune. “When I get into slumps, when the strikeouts bunch up, it’s from trying to do too much. Last year was key, figuring out how to focus on putting the ball in play, putting together good at-bats.”  As much as Joe Padres fan is stressing just what A.J. Preller is up this offseason, new skipper Andy Green is enjoying the process. "I love the discussions," Green told MLB.com. "I love the relentless pursuit of creating the best team for the San Diego fans for 2016 and onward.  Nevertheless, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman lists the Padres among his "non- winners" thus far this offseason: "They are trying to move several veteran pieces, including even Matt Kemp, who somehow isn't creating much buzz even after garnering 100 RBI in his first season in San Diego. The goal seems to be to undo what was done the year before. And while that might be a worthy one, it isn't necessarily a good look at the moment."  Former Union-Tribune staffer Bill Center has the latest on the Padres' Hall of Fame renderings and just where you'll find the team's retired numbers in 2016 at this link on the team's website.  Oh, and in case you missed it: Matt Bush can still rev a fastball up to 95 mph, so he's back in baseball on a minor league deal with the .

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