Election 2015- Hume Brophy Daily Update 13 17 April 2015

The opposition leaders debate was held last night to much fanfare. A snap Survation poll put Miliband as the winner of the debate on 35% to Sturgeon’s 31%, Farage’s 27%, Wood’s 5% and Bennett’s 2%. Most of the leaders fared well last night, although Farage’s criticising the audience for being too leftish may have been the error of the night.

As mentioned previously, all main party manifestos have been published. If you would like to see Hume Brophy’s own manifesto briefings, please contact us at [email protected] or see our website www.humebrophy.com.

 Business Today  Polls  Trivia  On the campaign trail

Business Today

 Prime Minister David Cameron speaks in the West Midlands on business and jobs (10:20am) and launches the party's Welsh manifesto (2:40pm)  Labour leader speaks in Lincoln on the party's policies for young people and launches their manifesto for young people  Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg campaigns in Gordon and West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine  Shadow defence secretary Vernon Coaker speaks at the Royal United Services Institute about Labour’s defence policy (11:00am)  The UK Independence Party launches its Welsh manifesto  Scottish Labour leader launches the party's manifesto in Glasgow (10:30am)  Scottish Conservative deputy leader Jackson Carlaw launches a new campaign poster in Edinburgh (11:30am)  Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood campaigns in Rhondda (11:00am)  The Ulster Unionist Party launches its manifesto

Polls

Apart from the debate polling last night, there has been no overall change in the state of the parties since the last big poll results last weekend. If these results were reflected in the election, a Hung Parliament would be the outcome, much of which has been predicted for the past year at least.

Not much change over the overall polling the past few days;

 Labour 34% +0  Conservative 34% +0  UKIP 14% +0  Liberal Democrats 8% -1  Green 6% +1  Others 4% +1

*As of 16 April 2015, BBC poll of polls

Betfair Predicts

Likelihood of:  Hung parliament 88%  Conservative Majority 10%  Labour Majority 2%

Seats (with increases/decreases based on last parliament)  Labour 274 Seats (gain of 18)  Conservative 279 seats (a loss of 23 seats)  UKIP 3 seats (gain of 1)  Liberal Democrats 32 seats (loss of 22 seats)  SNP 43 seats (gain of 36 seats)*

*http://www.betfairpredicts.com/ as of 17 April 2015

Trivia

Are our current politicians ‘the worst behaved ever?’

According to , Labour candidate for the Welsh seat of Rhondda, in his book series Parliament: The Biography he lists some examples were MPs through the ages have proved to be just as disruptive, or even worse, as the modern intake.

1. Ralph Crepyn (, 1283) was wounded in a violent brawl with Laurence Ducket in 1285 over a woman called Alice, then had his friends murder Ducket and dress it up as suicide. Alice was burnt alive, the friends were hanged and Crepyn died in the Tower.

2. John de Haltby (Ipswich, 1339) was so hated for his brand of political thuggery, having led a violent assault that ousted the equally despised sitting bailiffs in Ipswich in 1321, that when he was murdered in 1344 the town refused to arrest the perpetrators.

3. Giles Mompesson (Great Bedwyn, 1614 and 1621) was fined, expelled from parliament and told to parade up the Strand "with his face in a horse's anus" for extortionately abusing his royal monopoly for the licensing of inns and manufacture of gold thread in 1621.

4. Sir William Paxton tried to buy the borough seat of Carmarthen in 1802 with 11,070 breakfasts, 36,901 dinners, 25,275 gallons of ale and 11,068 bottles of spirits. He lost, but was elected the following year for Carmarthenshire.

5. Beauchamp Bagenal (Enniscorthy 1761-69, Carlow 1768-83), fought countless duels, including one at the age of 60 with a neighbour whose pigs had destroyed his flowerbeds, insisting on this occasion that the challenge be held in the afternoon and that he be allowed to take aim seated on account of his advancing years. The neighbour was badly wounded and Bagenal's chair was shot to pieces.

On the Campaign Trail

Blukip Nick Clegg announced yesterday that a Conservative/UKIP coalition would be disastrous for the country, calling the deal Blukip. The Lib Dems put out this image below;

@LibDems

Twitter users, of course, developed an image of their own rather hilariously merging pictures from early 2000s boy band Blue and Nigel Farage.

@GeneralBoles

Nigel’s tactics After accusing the audience on the BBC Opposition Leader’s debate as being left-leaning, some on Twitter have taken up this message and presented Farage with a book that he may be using.

@GeneralBoles

Ghetto Pickles Communities Secretary Eric Pickles recently appeared in a Conservative video promoting Hannah David in Harrow West, wearing a hoodie. People were soon to dub Eric as ‘Ghetto Pickles’- trying to get down with the kids…

@Bonn1eGreer

Pause for thought An image for the BBC which gives us a stark reality of what has occurred with the representation of women in Parliament.

@BBCnews