P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y

The Countdown to the 2015 Elections: SERIES 5: Candidacy Viability Report

© October 2014

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y Disclaimer

This report has been produced by NOIPolls Limited to provide information on all issues which form the subject matter of the document. NOIPolls hereby certifies that all the views expressed in this document accurately reflect its views of respondents surveyed for the poll, and background information is based on information from various sources that it believes are reliable; however, no representation is made that it is accurate or complete. Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors or fact or for any views expressed herein by NOIPolls for actions taken as a result of information provided in this report. Any ratings, forecasts, estimates, opinions or views herein constitute a judgment as at the date of this document. If the date of this document is not current, the views and content may not reflect NOIPolls’ current findings and/or thinking.

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 5 2.0 SURVEY BACKGROUND ...... 5 3.0 DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION ...... 6 4.0 NATIONWIDE RESULTS ...... 7 4.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores of Potential Candidates ...... 7 5.0 THE NORTH-CENTRAL ZONE ...... 10 5.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the North-Central ...... 10 6.0 THE NORTH-EAST ZONE ...... 12 6.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the North-East ...... 12 7.0 THE NORTH-WEST ZONE ...... 14 7.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the North-West ...... 14 8.0 THE SOUTH-EAST ZONE ...... 16 8.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the South-East ...... 16 9.0 THE SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE ...... 18 9.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the South-South ...... 18 10.0 THE SOUTH-WEST ZONE ...... 20 10.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the South-West ...... 20 11.0 KEY CONCLUSIONS ...... 22 APPENDIX ...... 23 Appendix 1 – Survey Methodology ...... 24 Appendix 2 - Survey Instrument ...... Error! Bookmark not defined.

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Demographic Distribution ...... 7 Figure 2: Favourability and Familiarity Scores of Potential Candidates (Nationwide) ...... 8 Figure 3: Favourability and Familiarity Sores (North-Central) ...... 10 Figure 4: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (North East) ...... 12 Figure 5: Favourability and Familiarity Scores North-West ...... 14 Figure 6: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (South-East) ...... 16 Figure 7: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (South-South) ...... 18 Figure 8: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (South-West) ...... 20

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 1.0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The fifth in the series of the Countdown to the 2015 Elections Polls conducted by NOIPolls looked at the viability of potential candidates for the Presidency in the 2015 elections. Candidate viability is based on two key factors:

a) Familiarity: This measures how well known the potential candidate is to the general public. b) Net Favourability Position: This measures the overall public perception/opinion of the candidate and must be positive.

The candidate viability of each potential candidate was measured by cross analysing their familiarity with their net public perception (Positive opinions minus Negative opinions). Key top line results revealed the following three potential candidates are considered to be the most viable:

 President Jonathan has the best overall familiarity rating at 99% and net positive favourability at +25,  Governor of comes in second with a familiarity of 94% and net favourability of +8. He also comes tops among other potential APC candidates and  Governor of comes in third with a familiarity rating of 88% and net favourability of 0.

The results also indicated that an effective Public Relations plan is needed to push borderline candidates to positive net favourability positions to enhance their candidate viability. These potential candidates are former military Head of State; Retired Major General Muhammed Buhari, survey results show that though he is well known (96%) he suffers a setback with a slightly negative favourability rating (-2). Others are Governor Adams Oshiomole of Edo with slightly negative favourability of (-5) in spite of his high familiarity (92%) and, Governor of State (-7) with a familiarity of 85%.

2.0 SURVEY BACKGROUND In the build-up to the 2015 elections, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has adopted President as its sole consensus candidate for the Presidency though the President has not formally declared his intent at present1. In addition, several notable APC candidates such as Alhaji and Retired Major General Muhammed Buhari have declared their intent to run for Presidency while there are on-going moves within the party to broker a compromise2 in the build up towards the party’s primaries scheduled for December 2nd, 2014. As political parties conduct primaries to select their candidates for the various levels of government for the 2015 elections, it is important to select viable candidates that have the best potential to subsequently win.

The viability of a candidate during an election is mostly based on two (2) factors; 1) Voters must be familiar with the candidate and; 2) Have an overall positive impression of the candidate.

1 Jonathan thanks PDP for adopting him Presidential candidate – Premium Times, September 21st 2014 2 APC moves to broker compromise on Presidential Primary – Newspaper, 7th October 2014 The Countdown to the 2015 Election Snap Poll Report 5 |P a g e

P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y Candidates might become better known during their campaigns but those who are better known prior to campaigns clearly do not have to work as hard as candidates who are not well known. Conversely, some candidates may be well known but not well liked by the public; they might find it harder to improve their image during a campaign compared to those that are not well known.

NOIPolls conducted its latest Countdown to the 2015 Elections Poll with a focus on potential candidates in the 2015 Presidential Elections; the candidate viability of each potential candidate was measured by cross analysing their familiarity among members of the general public with their net positive perception. The Countdown to the 2015 Elections Polls are conducted bi-Monthly by NOIPolls and the current result release is 5th in the 2014 series.

For this survey, Seventeen (17) candidates were used and belong to the various political parties. The figure below shows the viability of the 17 candidates in a 4 X 4 matrix that shows the net favourability i.e. the net of positive and negative opinions about them versus their familiarity. The four quadrants are interpreted as follows:

1. The top right quadrant: Candidates that fall in this quadrant have a positive net favourability which implies they are well liked. In addition, they are also high in terms of familiarity and therefore well known. These are the most viable candidates for the election 2. The top left quadrant: Candidates in this quadrant have a positive net favourability but are not well known. They are only known by a few people but those few have very high opinions of them. 3. The bottom left quadrant: Candidates that fall in this quadrant are not well known and have a negative net favourability implying a negative public perception. Their key challenge is to improve their visibility and public opinion so they can be considered viable candidates. 4. The bottom right quadrant: Candidates that fall here are high in terms of familiarity indicating they are well known. However, they also have a negative net favourability showing the public has a net negative opinion about them. For these candidates, the key is to work on their public perception through a strong and effective reputation management team.

3.0 DEMOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION Figure 1 below presents the demographic distribution of the 1,000 respondents that participated in this poll. There was a fairly even distribution among males (51%) and females (49%). Most respondents were aged between 30 – 45 years (55%) followed by 31% that were aged between 22 – 29 years.

In addition, the larger share of respondents reside in the North-West (24%) followed by 20% in the South-West and 15% in each of the North-Central and South-South zones. Also, the greater proportion are Self-employed traders (28%) followed by Government workers (20%) and Students (14%).

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y

Figure 1: Demographic Distribution

4.0 NATIONWIDE RESULTS This section presents nationwide results covering the 6 geo-political zones; key findings are:  Governor Babatunde Fashola of has the best candidate viability among potential candidates that could contest for the Presidency on the All Progressives Congress (APC) platform in the 2015 elections due to his high familiarity (94%) and positive net favourability (+8).  President Goodluck Jonathan has the best candidate viability overall among all potential candidates irrespective of party affiliations based on his 99% familiarity and highly positive net favourability (+25).

4.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores of Potential Candidates

President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP currently has the best candidate viability among all potential candidates for the 2015 Presidential Elections because of his high familiarity score (99%) and high net favourability (+25). Furthermore, Governor Babatunde Fashola of Lagos State currently has the best candidate viability among potential APC candidates for the 2015 Presidential elections due to his high familiarity score (94%) and positive net favorability (+8). The only other candidate that falls in the right upper quadrant with the two aforementioned is Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State and similarly of the APC with a familiarity score of 88% and net favourability of 0.

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y

Figure 2: Favourability and Familiarity Scores of Potential Candidates (Nationwide)

Another potential APC flag bearer is former military Head of State; Retired Major General Muhammed Buhari. Survey results show that though he is well known (96%) he has a slightly negative favourability rating (-2). Other APC members with slightly negative favourability in spite of their high familiarity include Governor Adams Oshiomole of (-5) and Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of (-7). Their slightly negative rating simply implies that a slightly larger proportion of Nigerians have a negative impression about these candidates compared to those that have a positive impression. To become viable candidates, the key is to address this by improving their public image before the elections and address potentially negative notions about their candidacy that might be influencing Nigerians’ perception about them. Strategic planning and a well-orchestrated public relations campaign should be sufficient to move these candidates into net positive favourability among Nigerians.

Potential candidates that have the lowest favourability rating while being highly popular are Vice President of the PDP with a net favourability rating of -34 and former Vice President Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the APC with a net rating of -30. This very negative rating for the current Vice President Sambo needs to improve to compliment the President’s net positive favourability rating. Results also indicate that Alhaji Atiku Abubakar is as popular as President Goodluck Jonathan (98% familiarity versus 99% familiarity) however suffers a setback of a net negative favourability of -30 as a result of a poor public perception.

The candidate with the least familiarity score is Sam Nda-Isaiah of the APC (51%). However, it’s interesting to note that though the proportion of those that have a positive opinion of him is the lowest (8%) among all these potential candidates Sam Nda-Isaiah also has the lowest proportion of people that have a negative opinion about him (31%) therefore he does not have the lowest net favorability score overall. The Countdown to the 2015 Election Snap Poll Report 8 |P a g e

P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y In addition, some of the candidates at the bottom of the table have previously contested for the Presidency under different parties. These candidates such as Dele Momodu, Patrick Utomi and Chris Okotie have a high percentage of people that do not have an opinion of them i.e. they neither had a positive or negative opinion about them even though they were familiar with them.

The net favorability and familiarity scores of the potential candidates are shown in the table below.

Nationwide % With % With Potential Presidential % Familiar Favourable Unfavourable Net Candidate (Positive) (Negative) Favourability Opinion Opinion Goodluck Jonathan 99 58 33 +25 Babatunde Fashola 94 44 36 +8 Rochas Okorocha 88 36 36 0 96 39 41 -2 Adams Oshiomole 92 35 40 -5 Rabiu Kwankwaso 85 30 37 -7 89 23 45 -22 86 24 46 -22 Sam Nda-Isaiah 51 8 31 -23 78 16 40 -24 Nasir El-Rufai 91 26 50 -24 Chris Okotie 74 13 41 -28 Patrick Utomi 70 12 40 -28 Atiku Abubakar 98 27 57 -30 Tunde Bakare 78 13 47 -34 Namadi Sambo 95 21 55 -34 Dele Momodu 72 8 43 -35

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 5.0 THE NORTH-CENTRAL ZONE This section presents results from the North-Central zone comprising the following states; Benue, Kogi, Kwara, Nasarawa, , Plateau and the FCT.

Key findings from this section are:  Governor Babatunde Fashola has the best candidate viability among all potential candidates based on the responses of North-central residents; he leads in terms of familiarity (100%) and net favourability (+32).  President Goodluck Jonathan has the second best candidate viability based on his 100% familiarity and highly positive net favourability (+21).  Governor Rochas Okorocha is also well liked (net favourability of +17) and well known (familiarity of 98%) coming third overall within the North-Central zone.

5.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the North-Central Governor Fashola had the best viability among all potential candidates based on responses from North-central residents, superseding President Jonathan in terms of his net favourability (+32 versus +21) though both were known to all residents surveyed and have a familiarity score of 100%. Governor Okorocha follows with a familiarity score of (98%) and a net favourability score of +17 showing his popularity within this region.

Figure 3: Favourability and Familiarity Sores (North-Central)

Once again, Retired Major General Buhari had a slightly negative net favourability score (-4) though he is known to all residents of the state. Governor Adams Oshiomole also had a slightly negative net favourability score (-5) and familiarity of 99%.

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Vice President Namadi Sambo has the lowest net favourability score of -52 in spite of his high familiarity in this region (98%). Much work has to be done by the ruling party to change the negative perception of North-Central residents about him. In addition, Sam Nda-Isaiah is the least known of all potential candidates (47%) in the North- central region.

North Central

ity

l

Net

%Familiar Favorabi Babatunde Fashola 100 +32 Goodluck Jonathan 100 +21 Rochas Okorocha 98 +17 Muhammadu Buhari 100 -4 Adams Oshiomole 99 -5 Aminu Tambuwal 91 -13 Rabiu Kwankwaso 93 -17 Atiku Abubakar 100 -22 Bukola Saraki 89 -28 Rotimi Amaechi 96 -29 Sam Nda-Isaiah 47 -31 Nasir El-Rufai 97 -33 Chris Okotie 80 -39 Patrick Utomi 80 -46 Tunde Bakare 83 -46 Dele Momodu 74 -49 Namadi Sambo 98 -52

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 6.0 THE NORTH-EAST ZONE This section presents results from the North-East zone comprising the following states; Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba and Yobe.

Key findings from this section are:  Four candidates have positive net favourability scores in the North-East and they all belong to the All Progressives Congress (APC)  Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State has the best candidate viability among all potential candidates due to his high familiarity (84%) and positive net favourability (+28).  Retired General Muhammadu Buhari is more well-known than Governor Okorocha (93%) in the North East but he trails in terms of net favourability (+16).  Governors Babatunde Fashola and Rabiu Kwankwaso are also well known and well liked in the North-East region.

6.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the North-East Governor Okorocha has the best candidate viability overall among all potential candidates irrespective of party affiliations with the highest net favourability (+28). Retired General Muhammadu Buhari is more well-known than Governor Okorocha in the North East (93% versus 84%) but he trails in terms of net favourability (+16). In addition, Governor Fashola is popular within this region with a net favourability of +7 and familiarity score of 84% followed by Governor Kwankwaso with a net favourability of +2 and familiarity of 90%.

Figure 4: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (North East)

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y Governor Adams Oshiomole of Edo State has a slightly negative net favourability (-1) followed by President Goodluck Jonathan (-5) and Aminu Tambuwal (current Speaker of the House of Representatives) follows with -9. The candidate with the lowest favourability overall is former Presidential Aspirant in 2011; Dele Momodu (-37).

North East

Net

%Familiar Favorability Rochas Okorocha 84 +28 Muhammadu Buhari 93 +16 Babatunde Fashola 84 +7 Rabiu Kwankwaso 90 +2 Adams Oshiomole 81 -1 Goodluck Jonathan 99 -5 Aminu Tambuwal 82 -9 Sam Nda-Isaiah 43 -13 Rotimi Amaechi 82 -14 Atiku Abubakar 95 -15 Nasir El-Rufai 87 -17 Bukola Saraki 69 -18 Chris Okotie 58 -18 Namadi Sambo 95 -31 Tunde Bakare 70 -34 Patrick Utomi 60 -36 Dele Momodu 66 -37

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 7.0 THE NORTH-WEST ZONE This section presents results from the North-West zone comprising the following states; Jigawa, , Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto and Zamfara.

Key findings from this section are:  Four candidates have positive net favourability scores in the North-West and similar to results from the North-East these candidates are members of the All Progressives Congress (APC)  Retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari leads overall with the highest familiarity (97%) and net favourability (+42) in the North-West.  Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State follows in terms of familiarity (93%) and positive net favourability (+39).  Governor Babatunde Fashola is also well known (93%) and well liked (+9) while Nasir El-Rufai also recorded a net positive favourability of +1 and familiarity of 94%.

7.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the North-West Retired Major General Muhammadu Buhari is the most viable of all candidates in the North-West region with the highest score in terms of net favourability (+42). In addition, he is very well known within this region second only to President Goodluck Jonathan with a familiarity of 97% versus 98% for the President. Rabiu Kwanskwaso is also well liked by residents of the North-West with a familiarity of 93% and net favourability of +39. Other APC contenders with a positive net favourability are Governor Fashola and Nasir El-Rufai.

Figure 5: Favourability and Familiarity Scores North-West

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y Candidates with a slightly negative net favourability in the North-West are: Aminu Tambuwal (-1) followed by Governors Rochas Okorocha (-3) and Adams Oshiomole (-7). The North-West presents the largest challenge to President Jonathan because he has the third lowest net favourability score (-26) despite having the highest familiarity (98%). Once again, Vice President Sambo trails all other potential candidates in terms of his net favourability (-34) indicating he is not well liked in this region.

North West

lity

Net

%Familiar Favorabi Muhammadu Buhari 97 +42 Rabiu Kwankwaso 93 +39 Babatunde Fashola 93 +9 Nasir El-Rufai 94 +1 Aminu Tambuwal 91 -1 Rochas Okorocha 80 -3 Adams Oshiomole 88 -7 Chris Okotie 54 -13 Atiku Abubakar 97 -13 Sam Nda-Isaiah 48 -14 Bukola Saraki 78 -16 Rotimi Amaechi 77 -17 Patrick Utomi 59 -19 Dele Momodu 55 -23 Goodluck Jonathan 98 -26 Tunde Bakare 73 -32 Namadi Sambo 96 -34

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 8.0 THE SOUTH-EAST ZONE This section presents results from the South-East zone comprising the following states; Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo.

Key findings from this section are:  President Goodluck Jonathan has the best image in the South-East leading other candidates with a considerable margin in terms of his net favourability (+86) and familiarity of 100%.  Governor Rochas Okorocha is second in terms of his net favourability with a score of 0 and familiarity of 97%.

8.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the South-East The South-East can be regarded as one of the strong holds of President Jonathan since his net favourability of +86 and familiarity of 100% demonstrates overwhelming support within this region. The only other viable candidate in South-East is Governor Rochas Okorocha of Imo State with a net favourability of 0 and familiarity of 97%.

Figure 6: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (South-East)

Other potential APC flag bearers do not fare very well in the South-East: Governor Oshiomole had a negative net favourability -17 and familiarity of 96% while Governor Fashola had a negative net favourability of -18 and familiarity of 99%. In addition, Muhammadu Buhari had a negative favourability of -42 and familiarity of 98%. These candidates have considerable work to do within this region if they are selected to run for the APC in order to improve public perception about them.

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y

South East

Net

%Familiar Favorability Goodluck Jonathan 100 +86 Rochas Okorocha 97 0 Adams Oshiomole 96 -17 Babatunde Fashola 99 -18 Rotimi Amaechi 95 -23 Namadi Sambo 96 -23 Bukola Saraki 65 -30 Rabiu Kwankwaso 80 -31 Sam Nda-Isaiah 60 -33 Nasir El-Rufai 81 -33 Atiku Abubakar 99 -34 Patrick Utomi 78 -35 Tunde Bakare 76 -35 Dele Momodu 78 -38 Aminu Tambuwal 88 -39 Muhammadu Buhari 98 -42 Chris Okotie 88 -47

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 9.0 THE SOUTH-SOUTH ZONE This section presents results from the South-South zone comprising the following states; Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo and Rivers.

Key findings from this section are:  President Goodluck Jonathan is the only potential candidate with a positive net favourability rating in the South-South leading the closest possible candidate by 85 points. All other candidates have negative net favourability scores in the South-South.  President Jonathan has the best overall image with a net favourability (+75) and familiarity of 100%.

9.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the South-South President Jonathan dominates other potential candidates in the South-South with a highly positive net favourability of +75 and familiarity of 100%. All other candidates have a net negative favourability in the South-South with the Governor Adams Oshiomole being the closest to President Jonathan in terms of net favourability with -10 and familiarity of 97%.

Figure 7: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (South-South)

Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has the poorest image overall in the South-South with a net favourability of -61 despite the fact that he has the second highest familiarity of 98%.

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y South South

lity

Net

%Familiar Favorabi

Goodluck Jonathan 100 +75 Adams Oshiomole 97 -10 Babatunde Fashola 94 -14 Bukola Saraki 76 -21 Sam Nda-Isaiah 60 -29 Patrick Utomi 73 -29 Tunde Bakare 79 -32 Rochas Okorocha 92 -35 Rotimi Amaechi 92 -35 Namadi Sambo 95 -35 Chris Okotie 83 -37 Dele Momodu 82 -41 Rabiu Kwankwaso 79 -43 Muhammadu Buhari 92 -52 Nasir El-Rufai 90 -53 Aminu Tambuwal 88 -54 Atiku Abubakar 98 -61

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 10.0 THE SOUTH-WEST ZONE This section presents results from the South-West zone comprising the following states; Ekiti, Lagos, Ogun, Ondo, Osun and Oyo.

Key findings from this section are:  President Goodluck Jonathan leads other potential candidates in terms his net favourability (+38) and familiarity of 100%.  Governor Babatunde Fashola has second best image in the South-West with a net favourability of +29 and familiarity of 97%.  Governor Adams Oshiomole is the third best in the South-West with a net favourability of +9 and familiarity of 94%

10.1 Favourability and Familiarity Scores in the South-West President Jonathan is once again the most viable candidate in the South-West with a net favourability (+38) and familiarity of 100%. Governor Fashola is also well liked in the region with a positive net favourability (+29) and very well known (97%). Both men are trailed by Governor Oshiomole with a net favourability of +9 and familiarity of 94% in the South-West.

Figure 8: Favourability and Familiarity Scores (South-West)

Governor Rochas Okorocha has a slightly negative net favourability (-4) and familiarity of 86%. He is followed by Governor Rotimi Amaechi and Professor Patrick Utomi both with a net favourability of -14 and familiarity of 82% and

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 80% respectively. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar once again has the poorest image overall with a net favourability of -52 despite the fact that he is very well known in this region (99%) in terms familiarity he only trails President Jonathan.

South West

lity

miliar

Net

%Fa Favorabi Goodluck Jonathan 100 38 Babatunde Fashola 97 29 Adams Oshiomole 94 9 Rochas Okorocha 86 -4 Rotimi Amaechi 82 -14 Patrick Utomi 80 -14 Muhammadu Buhari 98 -17 Rabiu Kwankwaso 74 -20 Sam Nda-Isaiah 51 -23 Tunde Bakare 85 -24 Chris Okotie 93 -27 Aminu Tambuwal 88 -29 Nasir El-Rufai 93 -30 Namadi Sambo 92 -31 Bukola Saraki 85 -34 Dele Momodu 85 -36 Atiku Abubakar 99 -42

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y 11.0 KEY CONCLUSIONS The net favourability of potential candidates is determined by the positive and negative opinions about that candidate; therefore a positive rating shows a larger proportion have a positive opinion than those with a negative opinion. Based on the nationwide results, only 2 candidates had positive net favourability scores; President Goodluck Jonathan of the PDP (+25) and Governor Babatunde Fashola of the APC (+8). In addition, Governor Rochas Okorocha also of the APC had a net score of 0 indicating an equal proportion had positive and negative views about him. The other candidates had negative net favourability scores and have to work hard to improve their public image bearing in mind that traditionally Nigerians tend to forgive easily especially in politics.

There were key variances when results were analysed by political zones with a summary presented in the table below:

Viable Candidates Location 1st 2nd 3rd Nationwide GEJ BRF ORO North-Central BRF GEJ ORO North-West GMB RMK BRF North-East ORO GMB BRF South-East GEJ ORO - South-South GEJ - - South-West GEJ BRF CAO

KEY GEJ: Goodluck Ebele Jonathan GMB: General Muhammed Buhari BRF: Babatunde Raji Fashola RMK: Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso ORO: Owelle Rochas Okorocha CAO: Comrade Adams Oshiomole

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y

APPENDIX

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P O LL I N G A N A LY TI C S D ATA BA N K S TR ATE G Y Appendix 1 – Survey Methodology The survey was administered over the telephone and it involved a sample size of 1,000 Nigerians who were randomly selected from a database of telephone owning Nigerians. The survey was administered using a well-structured questionnaire, and delivered in the 5 major Nigerian languages: English, Pidgin English, Igbo, Hausa, and Yoruba. The sample population was proportionately stratified by gender, age- group, and geo-political zone (including states and senatorial districts) to represent the actual population distribution. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties associated with conducting telephone surveys (particularly in ) can introduce error or bias in the findings of opinion polls. This methodology gives us a 95% Confidence level and an error margin of ± 3.

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