Biodiversity Conservation in Arid Environments Under Climate Change Cândida Maria Gomes do Vale Biodiversidade, Genética e Evolução Departamento de Biologia 2016 D Orientador José Carlos Alcobia Rogado de Brito, Investigador Principal, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade do Porto Coorientador Stuart L. Pimm, Professor , Duke University NOTA PRÉVIA Na elaboração desta tese, e nos termos do número 2 do Artigo 4o do Regulamento Geral dos Terceiros Ciclos de Estudos da Universidade do Porto e do Artigo 31º do D.L. 74/2006, de 24 de Março, com a nova redação introduzida pelo D.L. 230/2009, de 14 de Setembro, foi efetuado o aproveitamento total de um conjunto coerente de trabalhos de investigação já publicados ou submetidos para publicação em revistas internacionais indexadas e com arbitragem científica, os quais integram alguns dos capítulos da presente tese. Tendo em conta que os referidos trabalhos foram realizados com a colaboração de outros autores, o candidato esclarece que, em todos eles, participou ativamente na sua conceção, na obtenção, análise e discussão de resultados, bem como na elaboração da sua forma publicada. Este trabalho foi apoiado pela Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT) através da atribuição da bolsa de doutoramento (SFRH/BD/72522/2010). To the memory of my father. To my mother and grandmother. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The accomplished of this thesis would have been impossible without the help and support of many people and institutions. During the course of this work, I had the opportunity to work and learn from several people, who gave me suggestions and technical support. They helped me growth as a scientist, contributing to improve the quality of this thesis. Many other people supported me in many different ways, either by giving suggestions or by just being present… To all the people who made this journey possible, I express my sincere gratitude. First of all, I would like to express my thanks and appreciations to my supervisors, José Carlos Brito and Stuart L. Pimm, without them this thesis would not have been accomplished. I am extremely grateful for the opportunity to be under their guidance, for all their inspiration and scientific support at all times. José C. Brito was the person who designed the first ideas of this project and believed in my ability to develop them. I am deeply thankful for his ideas, commitment and effort deposited in this work. He is an enthusiastic and excellent scientist, who showed me the beautiful and importance of biodiversity in arid environments and changed my views of biodiversity conservation in so many ways. I am grateful for having been mentored by him, for all the inspiration, guidance, support, motivation and patience, and most of all, for his friendship all along. I am certain that my future as a researcher will be influenced by what I have learned with him. Stuart L. Pimm generously welcomed me in his lab during almost half of a year. He is a brilliant scientist and a proactive conservationist, who inspired me in many ways. He showed me how to communicate and apply biodiversity conservation. I am thankful for having been supervised by him and for the guidance and patience in all of these years. I also want to express my appreciation to the institutions that made this work possible. I would like to thank to FCT, Foundation for Science and Technology, for providing financial support with a PhD grant (SFRH/BD/72522/2010). For the financial support in fieldwork and data collection for my thesis, my sincere thanks go to the Mohammed bin Zayed Species Conservation Fund (Projects 11052707: Conservation Status of Papio papio, Crocodylus niloticus, and Agama boulengeri in Mauritania; and 13257467: Conservation Status of Addax nasomaculatus in Mauritania) and to FCT through the projects METALAND: Inferring metapopulation dynamics with landscape genetics for vertebrates of Mauritanian mountains (PTDC/BIA-BEC/099934/2008) and DESERTFLOW – Assessing gene flow and contact zone dynamics in desert lizards under climate change scenarios (PTDC/BIA-BIC/2903/2012), and by FEDER funds through the Operational Programme for Competitiveness Factors - COMPETE (FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-008917/028276). I would also like to express my appreciation for to the institutions that gave the support for the fieldwork: the Parc National du Banc d’Arguin (Mauritania), the Fondation Internationale du Banc d'Arguin, the Faculty of Sciences and Technology of the University of Science, Technology and Medicine in Nouakchott, and the Ministère de l’Environnement et du Développement durable of Mauritania. I would also thank to logistic support for fieldwork given by Pedro Santos Lda (Trimble GPS) and Off Road Power Shop. I also express my gratitude to the institutions that made this work possible. To CIBIO, for the opportunity of developing this study in this excellent research center. And to the Duke University, for welcoming me during my stays. I thank all the field team: José Carlos Brito, Teresa L. Silva, Duarte V. Gonçalves; Xavier Santos A.S. Sow, Fernando Martinez-Freiria, João C. Campos; Zbyszek Boratynski; Juan M. Pleguezuelos and Monica Feriche, for the amazing days spent in Mauritania, for sharing the fun of catching awesome reptiles, amphibians and mammals and watching birds; and experiencing the Mauritanian way of life. A special thanks to all people who went to field during these years. Without them, I would not have the essential data included in this thesis. I am also deeply grateful to Pedro Tarroso, who co-authored two of the manuscripts of this thesis. He is a great colleague, from whom I have learned so much. I am thankful for the time he dedicated to solve technical problems and discuss theoretical issues with me. This entire thesis benefited in great extent from his help and skills. I also want to thank to Francisco Álvares and Xavier Santos with whom I have shared thoughtful scientific discussions. I am thankful by their support. A big word of gratitude goes to colleagues and friends, Teresa L. Silva, Sónia Ferreira, Raquel Xavier and Mafalda Barata. I don’t have enough words to express my gratitude for their support, motivation and friendship. I also thank: Duarte V. Gonçalves, Sílvia Carvalho and Maria Joana Ferreira da Silva for their support and thoughtful scientific discussions. My gratitude also extends to all of the remaining Cibio’s colleagues, with whom I have shared so many nice moments throughout these 4 years, as well as thoughtful scientific discussions. My special thanks to Biodesert’s colleagues. I could not forget to thank to Miguel Pais Vieira and Carla Pais Vieira. They were my family during my stays in USA. Many thanks for helping me to adapt and for all the support at all levels. A special thank to Carla, who become a very close friend and family. Many thanks for being always there and for listening me. Also, I could not forget to thank my beloved friends, Verónica Gomes and Marisa Silva, who were always there for me, listening, cheering and encouraging. I am very lucky to have them in my life… I would not have been able to accomplish this thesis without the unconditional love and support of my family. I am sincerely grateful to my mother, godmother and especially to my grandmother. They are the cornerstones of my life and co-responsible of everything else that I have accomplished so far… My thanks for supporting and loving me unconditionally… Paulo is my companion and also my cornerstone. There are no words to thank for all his support, encouragement, patience and love… Thank you! RESUMO Os efeitos sinergéticos das actividades humanas e das alterações climáticas culminaram na actual crise de biodiversidade. O maior objectivo da Conservação da Biodiversidade é travar a perda de biodiversidade, através da definição de áreas prioritárias para a conservação que maximizem a representação das espécies e permitam a sua persistência. Os ambientes áridos são áreas negligenciadas mas importantes para a conservação onde os objectivos de representatividade e persistência podem ser atingidos enquanto o uso sustentável dos recursos é promovido. Esta tese contribui para a conservação da biodiversidade sugerindo medidas para identificar áreas adequadas e melhorando o conhecimento actual sobre os padrões de biodiversidade em ambientes áridos, particularmente no Saara- Sahel. O principal objectivo da tese é abordar a conservação da biodiversidade em ambientes áridos, focando-se no Saara- Sahel, uma região onde a biodiversidade está sob forte controle climático e é vulnerável às alterações. Foram definidos quatro objectivos específicos: 1) comparar o desempenho de modelos de nicho ecológico construídos a diferentes escalas para prever a distribuição das espécies em áreas marginais e a distribuição de espécies ecologicamente plásticas; 2) avaliar o estatuto de conservação de espécies restritas às montanhas; 3) identificar hotspots locais de biodiversidade; e 4) identificar grupos funcionais vulneráveis às alterações climáticas futuras. Foram analisadas as implicações associadas à selecção da extensão da área de estudo, da resolução e do valor de corte no desempenho de modelos de nicho ecológico para prever a distribuição de espécies em áreas marginais de ocorrência. Adicionalmente, os efeitos relacionados com a escala foram avaliados para espécies ecologicamente plásticas. Para planeamentos locais de conservação, sob as condições actuais, os modelos regionais com elevada resolução devem ser usados, uma vez que foram mais precisos em prever a actual distribuição de espécies em áreas marginais localizadas em zonas de transição abrupta, e na definição de áreas adequadas para a ocorrência de espécies plásticas. Valores de corte conservadores aplicados a modelos regionais melhoram a definição de áreas adequadas, o que permite identificar áreas a proteger no limite da distribuição das espécies. Para avaliar estatutos de conservação, modelos de nicho ecológico foram aplicados na identificação de factores ambientais relacionados com a distribuição e de áreas ii Resumo adequadas para espécies endémicas do Saara- Sahel (Felovia vae e Agama boulengeri).