Current Affairs 10 July -24 July 2017

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1. G20 hails India’s labour reforms, start-up policy

Hamburg Action Plan praisesefforts to boost innovation Acknowledging the steps being taken by India for sustainable and inclusive growth as well as support to global economy, the G20 has praised the initiatives in the country for promoting ease of doing business, start-up funding and labour reforms. In its Hamburg Action Plan, adopted at the G20 Summit, the group also noted that “in the financial sector, India is popularising a number of derivative instruments in exchanges or electronic trading platforms” as part of the measures to enhance resilience of its economy. It further said India is facilitating external commercial borrowings (ECBs) by start-ups to encourage innovation and promote ease of doing business, as part of the efforts being taken by the G20 members this year for maintaining momentum on structural reforms and sustainable growth. On steps being taken by G20 countries for promoting inclusive growth this year, the Action Plan said India is introducing labour market reforms to provide security to workers, increase female participation in the workforce and make doing business easier in the country. The acknowledgement from the G20 Summit, which was attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi among other world leaders, assumes significance in the wake of India trying hard to improve its global ranking for ease of doing business. The World Bank ranked the country at a low 130th position last year, an improvement of just one position from the previous year. The Modi government has said it wants India to be ranked in the top-50 nations in terms of ease of doing business. The next update to the ranking is expected later this year. The areas where India ranks poorly as per the World Bank ranking include starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering property, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. The country has implemented a spate of reforms in the recent months in areas like insolvency, taxation and starting a business and expects the rankings to improve substantially. The acknowledgement of various reform measures by G20, whose members include 19 countries and the European Union, has come as the latest boost to hopes for better ranking for India in terms of ease of doing business. Global institutions like the World Bank, IMF, WTO, OECD, ILO, WHO and the Financial Stability Board (FSB) are among the partners to the G20.

The G20 Hamburg Action Plan, which sets out the group’s strategy for achieving strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth, also said the closer partnership and action by G20 members will boost confidence and contribute to shared prosperity. It said the Action Plan has been developed against a backdrop of improving growth and job prospects. “The global economic recovery is progressing and gaining momentum. Investment has picked up, and trade and manufacturing are showing signs of recovery. However, the pace of this growth is still weaker than desirable, and downside risks remain. “Weak productivity growth, income inequality and ageing populations represent challenges to growth in the longer term,” the G20 Action Plan noted. It included new policy actions to tackle challenges in economies, focusing on initiatives that foster inclusive growth, enhancing resilience and further the G20 efforts to implement structural reforms. In the action plan, the G20 members resolved that they would continue to use all policy tools — monetary, fiscal and structural — individually and collectively to achieve the goal of strong, sustainable, balanced and inclusive growth, while enhancing economic and financial resilience.

2. A dangerous turn: on the violence in Basirhat

The West Bengal government should urgently restore law and order in North 24 Parganas Political violence is commonplace in West Bengal, where every level of elections is fiercely contested. Over the last three years, however, the escalating violence has entered more dangerous terrain, with a marked increase in communal tension and rioting. On July 2 in Basirhat, an inflammatory Facebook post, allegedly by a 17-year-old, provoked a round of wanton violence orchestrated by some radical Muslim outfits in the North 24 Parganas district. While the person was arrested quickly, the State government displayed a lack of resolve to immediately halt the protests that led to blocked roads, an attack on a police station, and vandalisation of shops and houses in Basirhat and nearby areas. Paramilitary forces were finally deployed by July 4, returning a degree of calm but only after the damage had been done. Soon, accusations and recriminations followed as the BJP sought to make this a case of minority-led communalism while the ruling Trinamool Congress complained that the BJP was fanning communal tensions. The politics spilled over into a needless spat between Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee and Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi, attended by allegations and name-calling. Rather than personalise and politicise a meeting between constitutional functionaries to extract political

mileage, Ms. Banerjee should have shown greater initiative to defuse the situation by tackling the violence firmly and bringing to book those responsible for the acts of arson. The incidents in Basirhat seem eerily similar to what transpired in Kaliachak in Malda district in January 2016 . Then, too, the State government had not shown alacrity in ending the violence, or acting against those responsible for it. Such communal violence is not common in West Bengal, which makes it all the more worrisome. The State had largely escaped the communal trouble that erupted in many parts of North India during the run-up to and in the wake of the Babri Masjid demolition in 1992. In terms of political discourse, the contestation between the Congress and the Left Front, and later with the TMC, was mainly on the basis of class politics or patronage. Ever since the Muslim peasantry, especially in southern Bengal, abandoned its support for the Left Front — a fallout of the anti-land acquisition agitations in Nandigram and Singur — the TMC has worked assiduously to consolidate its support among them. But it has done this by blatantly pandering to conservative and reactionary sections among Muslims, in the hope of earning the community’s support. Such an approach is exactly what the BJP, which was once electorally irrelevant in the State, feeds on in order to frame its own polarising narrative. From all accounts this has worked, as the party has grown into something of a political force in the State. Some of West Bengal’s districts have been hit particularly hard by the increasing hold of sectarian politics, which risks turning the State into a communal hot spot. Steps must be taken to urgently reverse this trend before further damage is done.

3. Divided island: on the reunification of Cyprus

The UN must quickly pick up the pieces to restart talks on the reunification of Cyprus The failure in Geneva last week of a round of talks on the reunification of Cyprus is by all measures a huge diplomatic setback. This is not the first time the United Nations-backed dialogue between the breakaway Turkish-Cypriot state in the north and the Greek-Cypriot Republic of Cyprus has been deadlocked. Even so, the current stalemate is disappointing as the prospects for a final deal had been pinned on the two interlocutors — Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades and Mustafa Akinci, his counterpart in Northern Cyprus. Both represent a generation that regards the status quo as an everyday reminder of the memories of partition of the island, whose combined population is just about one and a half million. The split took place in 1974 when Turkey invaded the north after an Athens-backed coup in Cyprus aimed at annexing the island. Among the main challenges the two leaders face is the demand for restitution of the property rights of the Greek-Cypriots who had fled the north in the 1970s. The establishment of an institutional framework to

secure the interests of both ethnic groups is another. Nicosia’s assurances of a rotating presidency between Greek and Turkish-Cypriots in a future federal union have not soothed anxieties in the north. Another challenge is Turkey’s refusal to guarantee the withdrawal of its troops stationed in the north. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan insists on an indefinite Turkish military presence on the island. The record of stalled negotiations, in fact, is almost as old as the 1974 partition. An early test of the diplomatic and political resolve to reunite the region was the 2002 Kofi Annan plan for reconciliation. Its terms were rejected by Greek-Cypriots in a 2004 referendum , which coincided with Cyprus joining the European Union. Voters had counted on the increased leverage EU membership would allow them vis-à-vis the north. On the other hand, the Turkish-Cypriots had ratified the Annan plan overwhelmingly, sensing enhanced prospects for a reunited island inside the bloc. The potential for reconciliation might also have been boosted by Turkey’s bid to join the EU, which was then high on the agenda in Brussels. More than a decade later, a reunion seems to be as elusive as ever. Yet, the economic incentives for reunification have, if anything, become more compelling. A united Cyprus would allow both parts of the island to realise their immense tourism potential. The prospect of exploitation of offshore gas reserves in the Mediterranean too is something the two sides could then realistically set their eyes on. But the imperative is not just economic — a successful settlement would allow Cyprus to be more in control of its affairs, without both the sides being so reliant on neighbouring powers.

4. Power games at the tri-junction

The current border stand-off suggests India is likely to become bolder in resisting the idea of power disparity We should by now be accustomed to Sino-Indian summits occurring with the backdrop of border trouble, and Friday’s G20 meeting between a smiling Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a less enthused Chinese President Xi Jinping was no exception. But the Doka La stand-off , at the southern tip of the Chumbi Valley where India, Bhutan, and China meet, is perhaps the most significant of all the border confrontations that have roiled the India-China relationship in recent years. This is not because of its size, dwarfed by the Sumdorong Chu crisis of 1986-87, or duration, still only a few days longer than the Daulat Beg Oldi stand-off of 2013 . Rather, the importance of the incident is threefold.

What it implies One factor is the unique position of the Chumbi Valley, which is at once a dangerous conduit into the slender Siliguri Corridor and a dangerous choke point, exposed on both sides, for Chinese forces. A second factor is that this

tussle is formally over the interests and rights of a third country, Bhutan, echoing the wider competition for influence in smaller countries — Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, and elsewhere — across the Indo-Pacific region. Third, the stand-off comes in a period when it is clear that the wheels are coming off the India-China wagon, with Indian trust in Chinese intentions collapsing steadily and Beijing taking an ever-more strident tone. At the military level, India has good reason to prevent Chinese road building near Doka La. Chinese activity has steadily increased in the area beneath Bhutan’s claim-line, pushing the area under its de facto control about 5 km southwards, towards a crucial ridge-line. This has a number of implications. It would widen the area of Chinese control in an otherwise very narrow valley, from around 8-9 km (Batang La to the Amo Chu river) to 12-13 km (Gamochen to the river), thereby easing the logistics of moving large numbers of troops. Control of the dominating ridgeline would also give China a strong position, by some accounts even domination, over Indian posts to the west, and Bhutanese ones to the south and east. India is still well short of matching the impressive infrastructure development in Tibet over the past decade, with two-thirds of sanctioned roads on the Line of Actual Control (LAC) still un-built. But Chinese forces moving through the Chumbi Valley — 90 km from top to bottom — would have long, exposed flanks. India has a formidable set of forces arrayed to the west, with mountain divisions in Gangtok (17th), Kalimpong (27th), and Binaguri (20th) further to the south, all of which are part of the Siliguri-based 33 Corps. Furthermore, the 59th division of 17 Corps, India’s first mountain strike corps, raised for the purpose of offensive operations into Tibet, is headquartered in Panagarh and will reportedly be operational this year. It’s worth noting that former National Security Advisor (NSA) Shivshankar Menon has argued, in his 2016 book Choices , that Beijing backed down in the 2013 Depsang incident “to a great extent because of India’s improved capabilities, which left the Chinese in no doubt that India could embarrass them”.

The Bhutan advantage Another of India’s military advantages is its privileged relationship with Bhutan. This allows it to bring to bear large forces from the east. A sizeable Indian Military Training Team (IMTRAT) is permanently based in western Bhutan, while other units regularly cooperate with the Royal Bhutan Army. Bhutan’s involvement highlights the way in which Sino-Indian competition is increasingly channelled through third countries, as China relentlessly expands into India’s periphery through strategic investments, trading relationships and arms sales. India’s willingness to intervene forcefully in a bilateral Bhutan- China dispute is a reflection both of India’s own vital interests in the Chumbi Valley and of its commanding position in Bhutan, which might otherwise have ceded the Doklam plateau to China in a territorial swap many years ago. The India-Bhutan Friendship Treaty, though revised in 2007 to give Thimpu more

autonomy, still notes that the two countries “shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests”. In this sense, Bhutan is a special case . But in stepping across an international border and defying Chinese expectations, India has also signalled a degree of confidence that will resonate more widely. This in part explains the especially vituperative rhetoric that has seeped out of hyper-nationalist outlets like the Global Times in recent days, such as lurid promises to “liberate” Sikkim and Bhutan, as well as subtler steps such as this week’s travel advisory for Chinese citizens in India. There is a reasonable chance that this stand-off will end within weeks, with China quietly halting road construction and Indian troops returning westward to their posts. The risk of escalation appears low. More broadly, the thicket of border agreements accumulated over the past 30 years — in 1988, 1993, 1996, 2003, and 2013 — serve as an important cushion whose value is still not fully appreciated. But the wider context is one of relentlessly hardening attitudes, on both sides. Beijing is aggrieved by the Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang in April, India’s aggressive repudiation of the Belt and Road Initiative in May, and India’s forward-leaning posture in the South China Sea — the latter underscored by Vietnam’s two-year extension of a 2006 oil concession to ONGC Videsh last week. India’s complaints are too numerous and familiar to elaborate, but they span international institutions (membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group), terrorism (Masood Azhar), sovereignty (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) and, in a more inchoate way, questions of the basic security order in Asia.

Relationship in a flux “India-China relations are undergoing a change,” wrote former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran on July 3. “China believes that India should acknowledge the power disparity between the two sides and show appropriate deference to China.” India has always repudiated this idea. But it is likely to become bolder in doing so. This is evident in last month’s U.S.-India joint statement, where China was unmentioned but all pervasive in areas from North Korea, to trade, to freedom of navigation. It is on display in the Bay of Bengal, where one of the largest-ever iterations of the Malabar exercise series is getting underway with aircraft carriers/helicopter carrier from India, the U.S., and Japan. We see it also in this weekend’s news, reported in this newspaper, that the government is conducting a national security review of Chinese investment in South Asia. Perhaps, in the coming weeks, 17 Corps will suddenly find that the purse strings have become looser too.

5. Corruption in the era of liberalisation

With its tentacles spreading to every branch of the state, corruption’s salience has never been higher In 1987-1988, without much forewarning, we at The Hindu found ourselves in the deep end, investigating grand corruption of a kind that India had not seen before,” writes N. Ram, chairman of Kasturi & Sons Ltd., and former editor-in- chief of The Hindu and Frontline , in his new book, Why Scams Are Here to Stay: Understanding Political Corruption in India . Drawing on the experience of investigating Bofors, modern India’s defining corruption scandal, he throws a spotlight on the intractability of corruption — in its pervasiveness, omnipresence, and multifariousness — under the prevailing circumstances in India, which is to say that without making deep-going and radical changes to India’s political economy it will not be possible to prevent and eliminate corruption. Yet, he argues counter-intuitively, combating corruption is decidedly a challenge of the here and now. An excerpt: Gunnar Myrdal even came up with a ‘sketch’ of a theory of corruption in South Asia by offering some ‘reasonable, though quite tentative’ questions to be explored and hypotheses to be tested. These questions and hypotheses attempted to relate corruption in South Asian countries to general socio- economic conditions, to the stage of development, and especially to institutional and attitudinal problems. But Myrdal’s sketch of a theory of corruption in South Asia was ahistorical in one critical respect: it failed to acknowledge the extent to which the colonial power had participated in and nurtured the corruption, and the conditions engendering corruption, that free India inherited. Interestingly, while Myrdal saw the presence of corruption in South Asian countries in somewhat static terms, as a legacy from pre- capitalist, traditional society, he related the increase in corruption to the processes of dynamic change in the social system, offering the insight that many of the changes that had occurred afforded ‘greater incentives as well as greater opportunities for corruption’. Most significantly, he called attention to the active role of the business world in promoting corruption among politicians and administrators. Socio-economically and politically, India is a very different country from the one Myrdal encountered during the decade he researched and wrote Asian Drama (1968). But his observation that many of the dynamic changes in the social system had enabled corruption on a bigger scale proved prophetic for the post-1991 era of economic liberalization and accelerated pursuit of neo-liberal policies. It is now well established that the facts of corruption, that is, its magnitude, spread, and effects in the polity and society, have increased exponentially over the past quarter century. While the folklore has kept in step, the anti-corruption arrangements and actions have been limping a long way behind.

The problem in India, where moralistic approaches to corruption are common and often dominate public discourse, is that the gap between what the anti- corruption campaigners, many of them ‘Gandhians’, demand and what the polity and the legal system are willing and able to do is enormous. When corruption is not conceptualized soundly, in relation to socio-economic, political, and cultural factors, but is presented in overly simplified moral terms, analysis of its causes and effects tends to go all over the place; and without accurate, theoretically sound and empirically backed analysis, prescription tends to be seriously flawed. The result is that anti-corruption institutional arrangements and actions habitually miss the mark; and mass campaigns against corruption, fuelled largely by moral outrage, make their contribution by raising the level of public awareness but are unable to sustain themselves beyond a point and fail to meet the lofty objectives they set themselves. The anti-corruption movements spearheaded by Jayaprakash Narayan in the 1970s and by Anna Hazare in 2011-2012 make the case strongly for the last point. The past decade-and-a-half has seen a spectacular outbreak of corruption scandals, big-ticket, medium-sized, and relatively small. With its tentacles spreading to virtually every branch of the Indian state and to key sectors of the economy, and to the news media, corruption’s salience in India’s political economy and public policy discourse has never been higher.

28 scams and counting For the period 2000-2013, Sandip Sukhtankar and Milan Vaishnav, researchers in political economy, have come up with a shortlist of twenty-eight scams, involving hundreds of billions of dollars, from the lists compiled by five news outlets. They calculate that for this list of early twenty-first century corruption scandals, ‘the mean scam “value” was Rs. 36,000 crore, and the median Rs. 12,000 crore. A major omission from this shortlist is Vyapam, the mega-scam in BJP-ruled Madhya Pradesh. There was a time when the stock explanation for corruption in India was the ‘permit-licence-quota raj’— virtually everything could be attributed to it. The prediction offered by a legion of neo-liberal economists and political theorists was that deregulation and liberalization would lead to the prevention, containment, and eventual elimination of corruption. Precisely the opposite has happened: liberalization has ushered in corruption in a much greater variety of forms and on an unimaginably greater scale than anything seen under the so- called licence raj. The interesting question is why and various answers have been put forward by scholars and policymakers. The essential neo-liberal answer is that many vestiges of the licence raj remain, enforcement capacity is still weak, and the reform process needs to be given more time to bring down the level of corruption. The evidence clearly and decisively goes against such ideologically led reasoning that often sounds like casuistry. The real explanation for the

exponential increase in corruption in the era of liberalization and high economic growth must necessarily be complex and nuanced and, as we will see, it is to be found deep in the heart and entrails of India’s political economy as it has evolved over the past quarter century. The short answer to the question is that with deregulation and liberalization, the state has played a different kind of role to the one it played earlier, providing access to scarce public resources as part of a process of promoting private sector-led growth at any cost and supporting without inhibition the omnipresence and play of private interests within the public sphere; and there is plenty of evidence to show that corruption tends to be greater when pro- business strategies of governments bring on or facilitate crony capitalism and ‘when there is a state-engineered redistribution of wealth in favour of a few and at the explicit or implicit expense of the many’. A political reckoning over burgeoning levels of corruption was due and it took place with a certain inevitability. Given the unprecedented levels of corruption witnessed over the previous decade, it was no surprise that the issue figured prominently in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and was responsible, in no small measure, for the rout of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance.

6. Is artificial intelligence fuelling natural stupidity?

We are at a stage where the genial news environment committed to truth and public interest is under pressure In 2012, there was an air of innocence when I took over as the Readers’ Editor of this newspaper. Terms such as ‘accuracy’, ‘fairness’, ‘authentic sources’, and ‘verification’, and C.P. Scott’s dictum “Comment is free, but facts are sacred” did possess a striking potential to keep journalism on the straight and narrow path. Algorithm was a part of mathematics and technology and it had hardly revealed its stranglehold on the information ecology. Artificial intelligence was a footnote. Albert Einstein’s wry remark, “Artificial intelligence is no match for natural stupidity,” was invoked sometimes to prove a point. However, the march of technology with its myriad participatory platforms, aided by people’s desire to believe what they want to believe, has made the task of a news ombudsman difficult. Fake news, doctored videos, unsubstantiated inflammatory news content that further divide and polarise our society are increasing by the day. I am forced to think constantly of what new skills a news ombudsman must acquire to uphold the principles of journalism. While it is relatively easy to deal with the rancour that flows from ideological positions, it is an uphill task to address anxious questions from concerned readers who struggle to distinguish social media rumours from real news. The ease of faking a news item

Two recent reports increased my apprehensions. “Slowdown in Software Central: Indian-Americans in the Silicon Valley” (Ground Zero, July 1, 2017) by Varghese K. George in this newspaper was an in-depth report on how automation threatens to alter the dynamics for all times to come. The article gave sufficient clues about the changing nature of the forces that control the information flow, and hence, the future of journalism as well. The Economist ’s report, “Fake news: you ain’t seen nothing yet”, published on the same day, was chilling. It was about how technology aids in generating fake audio and video reports that are convincing. The report was about the generative adversarial network (GAN), a type of artificial learning algorithm, which is used to create a fake clip without fiddling with editing or any other manipulations. It explained how fake audio creation has become simple already and creating a fake video is well on the way to becoming child’s play. While some experts feel that the day of fake YouTube videos is not very far, some feel it may take time. According to The Economist , it is only a question of “when”, not “if”. “We think that AI is going to change the kinds of evidence that we can trust,” was the observation of one of the researchers interviewed by the magazine. There are multiple reasons to be alarmed by this spectre. We are already witnessing party spokespersons falling prey to fake news and displaying their ignorance during prime time debates on our television channels. Dubious forwards using social networking platforms like WhatsApp are on the rise. There is an exponential increase in the number of people who believe what is forwarded from their immediate circle of friends, relatives and colleagues. There are no trustworthy mechanisms to check every fake news, false catastrophe and phantom chicanery. The Sunday Magazine story, “On the origin of specious news” (July 2), profiled the fledgling fact-checking Indian website, ‘Alt News’, and brought out the multiple difficulties in checking the authenticity of viral videos. It read: “Tracing the origins of a widely circulated hoax can often be complicated. An image or video may not have been manipulated: rather, an entirely authentic piece of footage may be circulated under false contexts.” The act of verification is central to journalism. But, what happens when that process is subverted by technology? Is journalism alone a victim of this subversion? What is the social cost? In his novel, Murther and Walking Spirits , Robertson Davies observed: “Always in history there are those who are impelled, by reasons they think sufficient, to ruin, in so far as they can, what patient, indefatigable warriors of civilization and culture have built up, because they value other things and worship other gods.” We are at a similar cusp where the genial news environment that is committed to truth and public interest is under pressure. We need to acquire both the tenacity and the competence to confront the threat from artificial intelligence to retain the space for journalism as a common good.

7. EU-Norway crab row could fuel Arctic oil tensions

Though the two are fighting over fishing rights in the Barents Sea, it is more about rights to oil exploration On the face of it, a relentless battle between the European Union and Norway in a remote part of the Arctic is about snow crabs. But the real fight may go beyond who gets to catch the modest crustaceans around Svalbard, a unique Norwegian archipelago in the Barents Sea. What is really at stake is oil, some experts say, and a coming race for the commodity of which there is a lot in the polar region. “No country wants to give up resources without receiving anything in return. That is the principle here too,” Norwegian Fisheries Minister Per Sandberg tells AFP. Norway, which is not a member of the EU, has slammed Brussels for authorising European vessels from mainly Baltic nations to fish for crabs in the Svalbard area, saying it violates its national sovereignty. A Latvian ship has already paid the price. In January, a ship called ‘The Senator’ was intercepted by Norwegian coast guards while crab fishing around Svalbard, and recently received a hefty fine. “What happened is totally new,” says Mr. Sandberg. “The EU is unabashed to make this kind of a decision without consulting us.” The EU and Norway’s conflicting interpretations of the 1920 Svalbard Treaty signed in Paris are at the heart of the problem. The treaty recognises Norway’s “full and absolute sovereignty”, but gives the signatory nations an equal right to economic activities on Svalbard and its territorial waters. The core issue is to agree on the geographical scope of the treaty and how far all signatory states benefit from an equal access to resources. With a strict interpretation of the treaty, Oslo says the agreement applies only to the 12-mile limits of the territorial waters surrounding Svalbard and not any further. But Brussels has a more loose interpretation of the treaty and says it covers 200 miles around Svalbard, in line with the concept of an economic zone that did not exist when the treaty was signed. Oil in the line of sight - The snow crab, first recorded in the Barents Sea in 1996, is an invasive, and more importantly, a sedentary species as it lives in permanent contact with the seabed. This means that the rules that apply to snow crabs are more similar to oil than to fishing. The crab dispute could create a “precedent” that “would have implications for oil and gas”, warns Harald Sakarias Brovig Hansen, a researcher at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute.

A large amount of the 17.7 billion barrels in the region could be in southeastern Svalbard, according to the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

8. Two large groups bid to supply equipment for Chabahar port

India keen to expedite work on the strategic facility in Iran’s Sistan- Baluchistan Two major Indian conglomerates have bid for supplying key equipment for the strategic Chabahar Port in Iran, while the process is on to expand financial eligibility criteria to attract more bidders, an official said. This comes against the backdrop of India being keen on expediting work on this port, located in the Sistan-Baluchistan province on the energy-rich Persian Gulf nation’s southern coast that can be easily accessed from India’s West coast, bypassing Pakistan. “Two major Indian conglomerates have bid for supplying four key mounted quay cranes at Shahid Beheshti Port, Chabahar,” an official who did not wish to be named said. “The bids are under evaluation and a final call will be taken soon.” Bids were invited on behalf of India Ports Global Limited (IPGL). The official said apart from this, work is on to expand the financial eligibility criteria to attract larger participation by players. “We will be rationalising financial eligibility criteria to ensure larger participation in bids,” the official said. Shipping, Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari had earlier said the government was hopeful of completing the work on the first phase of the project in 2018. The Cabinet has already approved funds for development of the project. Exim Bank credit For greater trade and investment flow with Iran and neighbouring countries, the Cabinet last year had cleared proposals for development of Chabahar port including through a $150 million credit from Exim Bank. It also authorised the Shipping Ministry to form a company in Iran for implementing the Chabahar Port Development Project and related activities. As per the MoU signed between the two nations in May last year, India is to equip and operate two berths in Chabahar Port Phase-I with capital investment of $85.21 million and annual revenue expenditure of $22.95 million on a 10- year lease.

Ownership of equipment will be transferred to the Iranian side on completion of 10 years or for an extended period, based on mutual agreement. The Iranian side had requested for provision of credit of $150 million in accordance with the MoU. As per the pact, operation of two berths is to commence within a period of maximum 18 months after the signing of the contract.

9. China is seen as more innovative in IT than India: Soumitra Dutta

China doesn’t have a TCS, but it has a Tencent and Alibaba which are more dominant and valuable in the future A 7% growth rate is not good enough for India and its IT industry has missed the bus on innovation by sticking to a template that worked 25 years ago, believes economist Soumitra Dutta who co-authors the World Economic Forum's annual Global Information Technology report. Layoffs and adjustments to tumult in its largest market – the U.S. — are transient factors and the real worry is that China is seen as more innovative now than India in the IT space, said Mr. Dutta, who is the dean of Cornell SC Johnson College of Business. Edited excerpts from an interview with The Hindu: Are Indian student applications falling in U.S. universities under the Donald Trump administration? Generally, foreign student applications are down this year. This is across the U.S. due to uncertainty about the visa and work situation after studies. Canada is being very aggressive to bring in foreign students and it’s also a very attractive country to go to. In the short-term, some negative impact is happening. But more worrying is the potential cuts the Donald Trump administration is making in research areas, because as grants go down, it affects output. And that’s the part that really worries me in the university much more. There is also a concern about the environment on campuses as people are much more divided in terms of political views, but I am more concerned about the possible loss of R&D funding with many key research programs losing out. A lot of the funding for climate change will disappear. If you remove the intellectual horsepower that feeds the universities, that hurts more than losing student applications. What are your views on the Indian IT industry’s current woes? I think the traditional Indian IT players will have to restructure their business model and hire more people in the U.S. The costs will go up, so they will have to think about what that means for the employee balance across countries and

the cost structures. That will of course, have a short-term effect on margins and they will have to look for new markets. A bigger issue that I see with the Indian IT sector is it was very innovative 25 years ago. There hasn’t really been another big innovation in the IT sector. They have been following the same template for too long. As a result, you don’t have an Indian Microsoft or an Indian Alibaba. And that’s the problem. The product investment is not there, nor is the consumer Internet boom. So in some sense, the Indian IT industry hasn’t innovated in the last 15 years enough. China doesn’t have a TCS, but it has a Tencent and Alibaba which are more dominant and valuable in the future. China has succeeded in skipping a generation altogether and they got leadership in the next generation. Today, if you ask the question is China more innovative in the IT industry than India, people would probably say yes. The answer wouldn’t have been the same 15 years ago. So India has lost the leadership of the IT industry in many ways. So do you see the current spate of layoffs in the sector as an outcome of redundant skill sets? The Indian IT sector layoffs are, in my view, just a temporary balancing of the workforce. All companies go through this… The basic model of the IT industry is still stable and there’s enough business. They might have lower margins and lesser people. They are not going to go out of business, they will adjust a bit. There will be healthy companies like TCS and Wipro. But they are not going to be the next generation companies and they will never be. TCS, Infosys or Wipro will never be the next Alibaba. And that’s a problem. The next generation of IT companies are coming from the U.S. and China, not India. If you look at the market capitalization of top 10 tech companies in the world, Alibaba and Tencent are No. 9 and No. 10. And the top five are big U.S. companies. So India, despite having all the lead in IT, doesn’t have an entry in that. That is not easy problem to fix. Because you miss a generation, it takes 15 years to catch up. Any attempt for India to make a bid for that will require us to think about what’s the next big leap and be able to make that generational leap. Because 20 years ago, there was no vision of Alibaba or Tencent. But some people in China made that leap and got lucky. We need someone out here to think about what will happen 15 years from now. That is a big question mark. Because what we have right now in India is essentially copies of American businesses like Amazon or eBay. There’s no real innovation happening in the internet space. What’s your view on India’s growth slipping to 6.1% in the last quarter of 2016- 17? The slight dip is not what worries me. What worries me is the overall number. I think 6% or 7% growth is not enough for India. Any country that has become an emerging global power needs to have 10-20 years of 10% growth. We are

nowhere near that. Brazil at some point had 10% growth for 15 years. China had it for 20 years. India’s never actually had that. What worries me is will we actually hit 8%, 9% or 10% and will we be able to sustain it over 10 or 15 years. I am keeping my fingers crossed that the government’s focus on building institutions will lead to long-term results. So I am not too concerned with the short-term dip which might be because of demonetisation and whatever other reasons. I am more concerned about can we move from 7% to 9%. Because at 6% or 7%, you are not really making a dent on the poverty reduction front, at least not fast enough. If you want to make it fast enough, we need to move at a different pace. We shouldn’t forget that India’s economy is still quite small with a very low per capita income. The U.S. economy is roughly 16-17 trillion dollars, China is about 10-11 trillion dollars, India is around two (trillion). And India’s nominal GDP per capita is still very low. From a foreign investors’ lens, if a government with such a majority cannot address the tough structural reforms such as in factor markets like land and labour, is there a concern that India’s potential will remain untapped? Now what the Prime Minister has really done is consolidated the BJP’s power at both the national and State level. In many ways, that was an important foundation to be laid. Hopefully, that will lead to faster and more effective action going forward. I think people and business like stability more than anything else. Emerging markets have a problem as they usually don’t have stability. That’s what people hate about emerging markets. So the fact that the same party now controls the Centre and a large part of the States gives a sense of stability to the foreign investor and businesses. That is important as once you have confidence and stability, people take the right decisions or at least more encouraged to take the hard decisions. Would now be a good time to take up land acquisition reforms, for instance? I think so. There will always be some changes that are hard to do because of politics and democratic systems. There’s always a cost of change. But I think if we can still do a lot to simplify things and focus on health, education and infrastructure, it will help. There’s a lot of low-hanging fruit in India. It’s good to have analysis and new ideas, but I think the problem in India is less about ideas and more with execution. I do believe that government’s focus on stability and a sense of calmness and focused discipline on execution is critical. It’s very hard to govern a large and diverse country like India. It’s a significant achievement just to provide a sense of stability, direction and some positive confidence. How do you see business education evolving? Will we see more consilience being weaved into what one traditionally learnt at B-schools?

I am also the chair of the AACSB, the global body for business schools’ accreditation. We went through a vision exercise recently and two themes came out strongly. The future would be about making connections between disciplines like engineering and business, health and business and so on and secondly, the connection with industry. The second theme was disruption. There was a strong feeling that the way we have done business education in the past will not be the same going forward. We will have to rethink business education for the future. There’s no clear model but the field is ready for disruption and you can see that already with the traditional MBA market stagnating to some degree. We see some of the weaker players dropping out, some schools are stopping their MBA programmes. There’s a feeling that what got us here will not get us through the next 50 years.

The government has granted tax sops and other perks for startups but bureaucrats sit and decide which Startups deserve them. Do you feel this approach could work? If you actually look at the venture capital investments into India, it’s quite good. Remember that many of the investments in China happen through Hong Kong or elsewhere. India is pretty high among most metrics in terms of investor money coming in. It is an entrepreneurial country with lots of opportunities so people want to invest in India and we expect it to continue in the future. Now the question is what is the best way to do it. What’s the role of the government in the process? That’s a very important issue as the government has an important role to play, but it shouldn’t be controlling every single element of the process in the cycle. I can give you two examples – even in a country like America, the government is extremely active in supporting R&D (research and development) through research and university grants. The government also picks a direction to invest more in, such as the human genome project that was picked some time ago. Now there’s interest in the brain… so the overarching fundamental domains the government can direct. The other example is Israel – where the government directed the VC part of it and a lot of the VC investments were started by it but then they moved into the private sector in a structured and rapid manner. Today, Israel’s VC sector is very strong in the private hands although it started under government control. So even in India, the government’s role is important – at the same time, the government also has to know when to get out. It’s like giving birth to a child. You have to take care of it but also know when to set her or him free. If you don’t get the freedom, you create a stunted adult. That’s the challenge for governments and bureaucrats. Having a market element is critical in the decisions that are made, as without that, you could run up huge losses and sometimes that happens.

The Planning Comission was replaced by the Niti Aayog. Do you feel its role has become clear yet? I think Niti Aayog is a cross between a think tank and some execution (powers). The Planning Commission didn’t have execution powers. How much it will succeed in that remains to be seen. The jury’s still out on whether the modified version will work. As a think tank it has a lot of interesting ideas, now the question is how much of execution does it directly own and how much it partners. It might actually work if they don’t try to own everything in the execution and find the right partners, else it might get bottle-necked. So far, what I have seen is they are doing it smartly and not getting stuck in doing everything themselves.

You have worked a lot on how businesses can leverage social media, but we are also seeing this becoming a new political force in the US and India. Yes, we are seeing President Trump use it in a way that is completely disruptive. No one remembers Hillary Clinton’s tweets, for example. But everyone remembers Trump’s tweets. Now you might say he can’t spell properly or his tweets are crazy, but people remember it. The question is the way he used social media was disruptive, given the way people were using it before. People are living in micro-worlds, so in the small micro-world you choose to live in, you keep reinforcing whatever bias you have and you keep listening to other people with the same biased views. Unlike what we thought would bring a wide variety of opinions, the reverse is happening and people are going to smaller cocoons and they are getting the same biased view. So this is a challenge for mainstream media as people are able to select a biased view and that is a challenge for society, governments and media. The French president Macron’s win is even more dramatic than Trump and Obama, as both of them used their party’s existing machinery to get elected. Macron didn’t use either one, which is remarkable. It will keep playing out the question is if it will be in a positive or negative way. It’s a challenge today and fake news is a good example. How do you fact check what you read online? It’s a big issue.

10. Demystifying debt funds as an investment option

What are debt funds? While equity funds invest mostly in shares of listed companies, debt funds invest in instruments like government bonds, commercial papers (CPs), certificate of deposits (CDs) and non-convertible debentures (NCDs). Debt funds invest in such securities and earn interest income that is shared among the investors after deducting the fund-management charges. By investing in such debt schemes, investors can indirectly invest in instruments like government bonds as well where direct retail investment is not possible.

What are the different types of debt funds? Debt funds can be classified on the basis of the tenure of the bonds or instruments in which they invest. Liquid funds invest in instruments that have a tenure of less than 90 days. Then come the short-term funds that invest in instruments that typically have a tenure of three to six months. There are corporate debt funds too that could have a tenure of up to three years. The long-term funds would invest in bonds that have a tenure of three to five years or even more like in the case of government bonds (G-Secs).

Do retail investors invest in debt funds? The share of real retail money in debt funds is still minuscule though the share is rising as more and more investors take to financial planning wherein a certain portion of the investment fund is allocated to debt products. Most fund houses now offer systematic investment plan (SIP) facility for debt funds as well. Interestingly, debt funds are popular among high net worth individuals (HNIs) to park their money temporarily before moving to other asset classes, mostly equity. Debt funds are generally used by banks and corporates for their treasury operations.

Are they better than bank deposits? Debt funds offer more return than bank fixed deposits and that is one reason why many HNIs and institutions use such schemes for their treasury operations. While debt schemes offer comparatively higher returns, the risk is also higher compared to the safe FDs that offer assured returns. In the case of bonds, the price could fall due to various reasons thereby impacting its price and ultimately the return. There have been cases where the securities have been downgraded that has led to the scheme taking a hit. Taurus Mutual Fund, for instance, took such a hit early this year when Ballarpur Industries failed to honour its maturity obligation and the fund house had to mark down the CPs to zero.

What about tax liability? The gains made on the investment in debt schemes are taxable. If the securities are sold within three years, it is considered short-term wherein the gains are added to the income of the investor and taxed as per the applicable tax bracket. If the securities are held for more than three years before selling, there are long-term capital gains tax. The tax rate is 20% with indexation and 10% without indexation. Indexation refers to the mechanism wherein the gains are adjusted against the rate of inflation to derive the net taxable gains from the schemes.

11. Centre may break up AI as it hastens sale

Air India has $8.5 billion debt burden and the Centre has injected $3.6 billion since 2012 India is considering selling state-owned Air India (AI) in parts to make it attractive to potential buyers, as it reviews options to divest the loss-making flagship carrier, several Government officials familiar with the situation said. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Cabinet gave the go-ahead last month for the Government to try to sell the airline, after successive Governments spent billions of dollars in recent years to keep the airline going. Air India — founded in the 1930s and known to generations of Indians for its Maharajah mascot — is saddled with a debt burden of $8.5 billion and a bloated cost structure. The Government has injected $3.6 billion since 2012 to bail out the airline. Once the nation’s largest carrier, its market share in the booming domestic market has slumped to 13% as private carriers such as InterGlobe Aviation’s IndiGo and Jet Airways have grown. Unsuccessful attempts Previous attempts to offload the airline have been unsuccessful. If Mr. Modi can pull this off, it will buttress his credentials as a reformer brave enough to wade into some of the country’s most intractable problems. His office has set a deadline of early next year to get the sale process under way, the officials said, declining to be named as they were not authorized to speak publicly about the plans. The timeline is ambitious and the process fraught, with opinion divided on the best way forward: should the Government retain a stake or exit completely, and should it risk being left with the unprofitable pieces while buyers pick off the better businesses, officials said. Already, a labour union that represents 2,500 of the airline’s 40,000 employees has opposed the idea of a sale even though it is ideologically aligned to Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party. ‘Complex exercise’ Officials who have to make it happen are grappling with the sheer scale of the exercise. Air India has six subsidiaries three of which are loss-making with assets worth about $4.6 billion. It has an estimated $1.24 billion worth of real estate, including two hotels, where ownership is split among various Government entities. No one has properly valued the company’s various businesses and assets before, two officials with direct knowledge of the process said. Earlier this

month, about $30 million worth of art, including paintings by artist M. F. Husain, went missing from its Mumbai offices, chairman Ashwani Lohani said. “The exercise is complex and there is no easy way out,” said Jitendra Bhargava, operational head of Air India in 1997-2010. “At this juncture, selling even part of Air India is far from certain.” Mr. Lohani declined to comment on the sale process. The prime minister’s office and the civil aviation ministry also declined to comment. A committee of five senior federal ministers, led by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley, is expected to meet this month and begin ironing out the finer details of the plan. Besides deciding about the size of the stake sale, the panel will set the bidding norms. It will also take a call on the carrier’s debt, de-merger and divestment of its three profit-making subsidiaries. Mr. Modi’s office has said the Government has no business being in hospitality and travel, suggesting the prime minister wants to sell as much of Air India as possible, the officials said. Back to Tata? Analysts say the Government may prefer to keep the airline in Indian hands. At least two potential Indian suitors, the Tata Sons conglomerate and IndiGo, have shown early interest. In recent weeks, officials in Mr. Modi’s office and from the Civil Aviation Ministry met Ratan Tata, the patriarch of the $100 billion-a-year Tata Sons, to gauge the company’s interest in a deal, a close aide to Mr. Modi said. Tata would be an attractive buyer for the Government. The company founded and operated Air India before it was nationalised in 1953. “Seems like Tata will come forward and make the best offer,” the aide said, adding the Centre would be keen to see that jobs are not lost. Tata’s ventures Tata, however, already has two other airline joint ventures in India, and it’s not clear what parts of Air India it would be interested in. A Tata spokeswoman declined to comment. IndiGo said on Thursday it was interested in the international operations and in Air India Express, a low-cost carrier. Mr. Modi’s office has told officials to work out exactly how much each of Air India’s subsidiaries are worth to make it easier to break up the carrier if needed, two of the officials said. The Government is expected to appoint outside consultants to help with the exercise. Anshuman Deb, aviation analyst at ICICI Securities, said splitting the airline will maximize value for the Government.

“Let us be realistic. It’s very clear that a single buyer cannot buy an entire state-owned company,” said a senior aviation ministry official involved in the process.

12. Curcumin nanoparticles found to shorten TB treatment time

Basic ingredient of turmeric, in the form studied, is understood to be five times more ‘bioavailable’ in mice than in the regular one Curcumin, the basic ingredient of turmeric, when administered in a nanoparticle formulation has several favourable properties in the treatment of tuberculosis in mice, researchers have found. Prof. Gobardhan Das from the Special Centre for Molecular Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) Delhi and his team found nanoparticle curcumin to be five times more bioavailable (which is the proportion of drug that enters circulation after introduction into the body) in mice, than regular curcumin, and was able to drastically reduce liver toxicity induced by TB drug isoniazid. More importantly, treatment of TB with isoniazid along with 200 nanometre curcumin nanoparticles led to “dramatically reduced” risk of disease reactivation and reinfection. Treatment with anti-tuberculosis drugs takes about six-nine months in the case of drug-sensitive TB and 12-24 months for drug-resistant TB. Besides improper use, the long duration to complete treatment substantially increases the risk of TB bacteria developing resistance. Host-directed therapy Because of the increased bioavailability of curcumin, the duration of treatment to achieve complete eradication of the bacteria is reduced significantly. “The treatment time required for complete eradication of bacteria was reduced by 50% in the case of mice,” says Prof. Das. The results were published in the journal Frontiers in Immunology . Quite often, patients stop taking anti-TB drugs for a few days due to liver toxicity. Since the addition of curcumin reduces liver toxicity, there can be better treatment adherence and lesser risk of drug resistance emerging. Like diabetes drug metformin and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs that limit inflammation, curcumin is a host-directed therapy, where the body’s immune system is manipulated, rather than targeting the cause of the disease directly. Besides reducing inflammation, curcumin nanoparticles were found to enhance the immune system.

Curcumin blocks the Kv1.3 potassium channel and prevents apoptosis, or cell death, of T cells that come up with an immune response. As a result, the protective, long-lasting memory cells called the central memory T cells get enhanced. ‘Faster clearance’ “This leads to faster clearance of the TB bacteria, resulting in stronger host immunity against the bacteria and therefore less chances of relapse of the disease after treatment,” said Dr. Dhiraj Kumar Singh from the Special Centre for Molecular Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru University and one of the lead authors of the study. Mice, which were treated only with isoniazid, displayed increased susceptibility to re-infection since the drug dampens the immune system. Mice treated with curcumin nanoparticles and isoniazid were able to clear the bacteria at an accelerated rate in both the lungs and spleen. “Curcumin nanoparticles are stable and can be administered both orally as well as intraperitoneally and, therefore, have greater potential for therapeutic use under different conditions,” they write.

13. Tough times: containing violence crucial for peaceful Kashmir

A coordinated security and civil response is needed to help peace return to the Valley All indications are that 2017 will turn out to be the deadliest year in Jammu and Kashmir in almost a decade, and Monday’s terrorist attack on Amarnath pilgrims is a stark reminder that a clear-eyed security response is required to deal with the challenges. The attack, in which at least seven persons died, shows the vulnerability of civilians in spite of the dense security deployment in the Kashmir Valley. The bus carrying the pilgrims had fallen behind a convoy when it came under fire. But for the alertness of the driver , the casualties could have been much higher. For a few weeks there had been intelligence warnings about terrorists possibly targeting the Amarnath Yatra, given the tone and tenor of the new phase of Kashmir militancy and the sustained tension along the India-Pakistan border, with infiltration continuing. But finger- pointing about a security lapse would be meaningless before an inquiry is conducted. The attack, significantly, comes around the first anniversary of the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen ‘commander’ Burhan Wani, the fallout of which the security forces and the State government continue to struggle to contain. While militancy in Kashmir began taking a new turn sometime in 2013, it escalated in the wake of Wani’s death. According to informed estimates, since his death, over 250 local youth have taken up arms in the Valley. In comparison, in 2013 only 31 local youth were estimated to have enrolled for militancy.

Projected estimates suggest that this year the number killed, including security forces personnel and civilians, could finally be more than 400, the highest since 2009, when 375 people were killed in Kashmir. Since then violence had steadily fallen, and in 2012, 117 lives were lost. There are other disconcerting inputs coming from the security agencies. A recent video clip, which is doing the rounds on social media and which the intelligence agencies consider authentic, indicates that the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Hizbul Mujahideen and Jaish-e- Mohammed are operating together, or at least coordinating attacks. The spike in militant activity has coincided with increased street protests, public mobilisation to help militants escape security operations, and intimidatory tactics such as burning of schools to bring normal life to a standstill. This cycle can only be broken through a coherent security strategy and outreach by the civil administration to foster confidence and reduce tensions on the street. The security establishment needs to step up its response to the new reality. The quality of intelligence-gathering needs to improve, through traditional human skills and technical capabilities. Personnel need better training to handle this phase of unrest, so that they are more alert to the seemingly blurred, but always vital, line between a security intervention and a human rights violation. Containing violence is crucial to guide Kashmir to a peaceful future.

14. Ominous retreat: on weakening bond markets

Weaning the world off easy money won’t be painless Bond markets around the globe showed signs of weakness last week, with major central banks hinting at a possible end to years of ultra-loose monetary policy. The yield on German government bonds reached their highest level in 18 months, while that on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached its highest level in eight weeks. Results of the auction of 30-year French government bonds were the immediate trigger behind the rout as it pointed to a drop in excess demand; the bid-to-cover ratio dropped to 1.5 from 1.93 in January. Notably, the minutes of the European Central Bank’s June meeting indicated that the bank might walk back on its commitment to expand its €60 billion bond purchase programme. The U.S. Federal Reserve has already hiked rates this year, and warned of the risks posed by low rates. The Bank of England and the Bank of Canada have shown signs of hawkishness. Bearish comments from investors that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds might head towards 3% did not help matters either. The Bank of Japan has been the sole exception, promising to purchase unlimited amounts of government bonds at low rates. There is thus widespread concern among investors that central banks, through these bearish signals, may be testing the reaction of markets to a possible interest rate hike. Further, they fear the possibility of a coordinated tightening of monetary policy globally.

The fact that the drop in bond prices has coincided with hawkish central bank policy is not totally surprising. The multi-year bull market in bonds has been driven mainly by central bank purchases of government bonds; in fact, sovereign bonds yielded negative rates not too long ago. A major concern right now is whether higher rates in the bond market will spell doom for equities. After all, a higher interest rate places a greater discount on future cash flows, which in turn translates into lower equity prices. What this means for banks and other financial institutions betting on these instruments will define the systemic risk that a long-feared rate hike poses. According to estimates by Goldman Sachs last year, even a 1% increase in rates by the Federal Reserve alone would lead to losses anywhere between $1 trillion and $2.4 trillion to bondholders. This is bigger than the losses incurred during any other bond collapse in history. Even more important will be the risks to the broader economy from an end to the present regime of historically low interest rates. For almost a decade now, investment decisions have been based on low interest rates and high levels of liquidity. An increase in rates, combined with lower levels of liquidity, will require a change in business decisions and a reallocation of resources. This will mean some amount of unavoidable economic pain. In such a scenario, it will not be a total surprise if central banks decide to step back from their plans to normalise rates.

15. Paint the united colours of India

The Sangh Parivar’s saffron agenda must not dictate the country’s foreign policy By deciding not to gift copies of the Bhagavad Gita to Donald Trump or Benjamin Netanyahu during his recent visits abroad, Prime Minister Narendra Modi appears to have ignored the self-congratulatory statement of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, that foreign dignitaries were now being given copies of Gita and Ramayana instead of Taj Mahal replicas (because they, according to Mr. Adityanath, do not reflect Indian culture). As a matter of fact, Mr. Modi’s gifts over the past three years have included an impressive selection, even as Hindu religious texts have become more prominent than ever in the Prime Minister’s gift bag. Even though Mr. Modi’s gifts to foreign dignitaries have comprised more than Hindu religious books, the BJP-led government in New Delhi has exhibited strong tendencies of saffronising India’s foreign policy, one step at a time, and without much resistance. Remember the strong pitch made by none other than External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj in 2014 to declare Bhagavad Gita as India’s ‘Rashtriya Granth’ (national book)? During Mr. Modi’s recent visit to Israel, some BJP leaders even referred to the underlying belief within the Sangh Parivar of the desirability of forging strong bonds between Hindutva and

Zionism. The issue of ‘saffronising’ foreign policy is serious, and deserves to be examined in greater depth. Religious symbolism Mr. Modi’s official visits abroad have often been steeped in Hindu religious symbolism. Recall his first visit to Nepal in 2014 when he visited the Hindu temple, Pashupatinath. Clad in saffron attire, wearing a rudraksh garland and sandal paste smeared on his forehead, the religious symbolism of Mr. Modi’s visit to the temple was spectacular, if not prime ministerial. It is a different matter that the development of a potential Hindu religious plank in Indo-Nepal relations, a key piece in the Sangh Parivar’s long-cherished dream, was sabotaged by events thereafter, including India’s ‘unofficial’ economic blockade of Nepal in 2015. When Mr. Modi visited Abu Dhabi in 2015, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) government announced the allocation of land for the UAE capital’s first Hindu temple. The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) tweeted on the occasion, “A long wait for the Indian community ends. On the occasion of PM’s visit, UAE Govt decides to allot land for building a temple in Abu Dhabi,” with Mr. Modi following up with another tweet: “I am very thankful to the UAE Govt for their decision to allot land in order to build a Temple in Abu Dhabi. This is a great step.” How so? While providing land to construct a temple for the Hindu community in the UAE (for Hindu migrant workers from countries such as India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, etc.) is in itself a laudable act, what does the official visit of a secular republic’s Prime Minister have to do with the allocation of land for a Hindu temple in an Islamic country? These tweets, by the MEA and the Prime Minister, were not in keeping with the secular traditions of India’s foreign policy engagements. Wasn’t ensuring that the Indian migrant workers in UAE are not mistreated, as they regularly are, more important than portraying the “land for temple” as a major foreign policy achievement? Let’s not get carried away: it was neither foreign policy, nor an achievement. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s fixation with ‘Mandir’ cannot be projected as the Indian state’s legitimate foreign policy interest. Refugee policy The BJP’s proposed refugee policy also tells the story of a deep-seated saffron agenda. Its 2014 election manifesto was unequivocal in stating that “India shall remain a natural home for persecuted Hindus and they shall be welcome to seek refuge here”. Note that the statement is not one that promises to protect all persecuted minorities in the neighbourhood, as the country has done in the past, but a pointedly Hindutva sentiment. The party followed up on its promise when it came to power by proposing a controversial Bill to amend the country’s citizenship laws. The Citizenship (Amendment) Bill, 2016, proposes that Hindus, Sikhs, Jains, Parsis and Christians entering India from Afghanistan,

Bangladesh and Pakistan not be considered as “illegal immigrants” — no word on Muslims here! By not providing any justification whatsoever for discriminating against Muslims (if there can, in fact, be any), given that Hindus and Muslims comprise most refugees turning up at India’s borders, the motivation is clear. While on the one hand this appeases the communal vote banks in mainland India, the move also could potentially enhance BJP’s electoral fortunes in the north-eastern borderlands since the proposed law could alter the voter demographics in the region to BJP’s advantage. To get a more complete picture, read this together with the recently passed ‘Enemy Property (Amendment and Validation) Bill, 2016’ which could potentially dispossess many Muslim families of their inherited property. India abroad New Delhi has traditionally viewed the Indian diaspora to be a powerful force multiplier and has both used their services and catered to their needs. The Modi government has gone way beyond the legitimate exercise of engaging the diaspora to enthusiastically promoting overseas Hindutva/Sangh outfits for ideological ends, couched in sophisticated foreign policy showbiz, of course. Clearly, the outright enlisting of Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh-affiliated organisations such as the Overseas Friends of BJP (OFBJP) and the Hindu Swayamsevak Sangh (HSS) for the government’s foreign policy pursuits and other official purposes can only be termed as attempts at saffronising our secular foreign policy. Recall how the HSS and the OFBJP-USA, along with the MEA and the Indian embassy in Washington, played a crucial role in organising Mr. Modi’s official visit to the U.S. in September 2014. Several events in the Prime Minister’s official visits abroad today are organised by HSS/RSS/OFBJP activists in collaboration with the MEA and the Indian embassy. While these activists are indeed members of the Indian diaspora, they only represent one fragment of it, and a communal one. What is even more worrying is that many of these Hindutva organisations are increasingly partnering with Indian missions abroad to organise official functions of the Indian state. Consider this: during this year’s International Day of Yoga, the official partners of the Indian Embassy in Washington included the Association of United Hindu and Jain Temples, Baba Ramdev’s Patanjali Yogpeeth, Hindu American Foundation, HSS, and several other Hindu organisations (http://bit.ly/2sLjxaA). This brings back memories of the appointment of Bhishma Agnihotri, an office- bearer of the HSS, as India’s Ambassador-at-Large in the U.S. by the Vajpayee government. Mr. Agnihotri’s ad hoc appointment had led to run-ins between him and India’s official representation in Washington. The proclivity of the Hindutva organisations, many of whose members are not Indian citizens, to grab the limelight of New Delhi’s official engagements abroad is resented by career diplomats who have often cautioned the MEA that such

organisations should be kept away from official functions. Moreover, the BJP’s tendency to promote overseas Hindu organisations through the foreign policy engagements of the country will not only undermine the official and formal nature of the practice of diplomacy but will also divide the Indian diaspora along communal lines. These organisations are also compensated by the government particularly during the ‘Pravasi Bharatiya Divas’ celebrations. The outsourcing of India’s foreign policy activities to overseas Hindu organisations should therefore be put an end to. India’s foreign policy engagement, the BJP leadership needs to remember, is the sovereign function of the Indian state, not an instrument of the Sangh Parivar’s ideological agenda. Let us hope that Mr. Adityanath’s communal rhetoric about avoiding ‘unIndian’ gifts for foreign dignitaries does not alter the standard practice.

16. Getting GST right

Why tax exemption on personal hygiene products for women is crucial I will always remember the midnight launch of Goods and Services Tax (GST) on June 30/July 1 as the moment when my government let down a girl who died in Assam’s Baksa district. Maggots had found their way into her stomach because she had used a rag during her periods. Her parents refused to treat her as they thought she was pregnant. Eventually it was too late even though she was taken to a hospital. The road to rights When I started my online petition on March 8, requesting the Union Finance Minister to make eco-friendly sanitary pads tax-free and reduce the tax bracket of other napkins from 12-14% to 5%, I found more than three lakh people joining me in my appeal. I also found support from across the political spectrum. The Union Health and the Women and Child Development Ministers also agreed that it was a proposal with merit. The Finance Minister readily accepted that it was a cause mooted by activists and non-governmental organisations, but it did not resonate with members of the GST Council that for an adolescent girl, an affordable sanitary napkin is actually essential for her well-being. Over the months, activists, writers and I have thrown pertinent facts and figures at the government trying to convince them that this tax exemption would be an important health intervention. That a woman needs all means possible to help her during menstruation can only be forcefully argued by women. I have argued in Parliament on many an occasion to deliberate on issues of women’s empowerment using data on the dismal percentage of women in the

workforce, the high percentage of school dropouts among girls, and the rise in gender crimes. These have always been received by the government with sensitivity, and have drawn assurances about the government’s commitment. While we continue to focus on and highlight the problem, the solution is complex. The right to equality is not an easy right to ensure and enforce. My empowerment has to be about saving me from damage and not saving me after I am damaged. It has to be about building my ability to seize an opportunity in education, employment or a seat in a panchayat. It has to be about minimising and containing my inherent disadvantages because of my gender, which stand in my way. The Constitution recognises this and allows women a head start in life. Yet, girls have to drop out of school because menstruation is a stigma; they have to stay away from education because they have no restroom in school; and there is female foeticide because a girl is considered to be a liability. The real empowerment of women does not need doles and handouts. It needs interventions that tackle the problem. We are a country where many women are still dependent on cloth-based products as they cannot access high quality, expensive personal hygiene products or lack sufficient information about sanitary pads. If a woman has to use hay, ash, sand, wood shavings, newspaper, dried leaves, or even plastic as a substitute for a hygiene product, despite subsidised napkins being distributed under the National Rural Health Mission (NHRM) in many States, I hope the government is compelled to think about the limitations of their prevailing interventions in this regard. Their system of distribution is failing to ensure last-mile delivery. Ensure last-mile access In India, 70% of women say that their families cannot afford to buy sanitary pads. Distribution of free or subsidised napkins in schools by States is a good step but cannot solve the problem. If the government has to push the social campaign ‘Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao’, it tells us that there are more girls out of school than in them in India. A government that champions the idea of disinvestment/privatisation of its own businesses in the name of greater business efficacy should have realised that commercial, private sector entities can deliver better in rural and remote markets if the product becomes cheaper and within the purchasing power of the economically weaker sections. The celebrations of the midnight GST launch have numbed many. The harsh truth is that ultimately, every manufacturer shifts the burden of cost to the consumer. If a huge budget of the NRHM and its network can’t ensure last-mile delivery to the women of rural India or the urban poor, it could have been achieved at a lesser cost by reducing the tax on sanitary napkins, where only 12% of women use sanitary napkins. This could have worked as an incentive for private manufacturers. It could have been a significant intervention.

Where some 11,000-plus products were discussed by the GST Council, I have no doubt the members did have women in mind — bangles and bindis have been exempted from GST. Whether they had women empowerment in mind, I don’t know.

17. The only way to deal with the Chinese is directly, says Shivshankar Menon

As the Doklam spat between Beijing and New Delhi flares, the former NSA and old China hand says the neighbours need a new strategic dialogue to recalibrate their relationship As the stand-off between Indian and Chinese troops in Bhutanese territory of the Doklam plateau enters its second month, former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon, who is an old China hand, says Beijing is changing the status quo with its actions in the area, and it is time for a new “modus vivendi” between the two countries. Excerpts from the interview:

You have been Ambassador to China, Foreign Secretary, National Security Adviser and the Special Representative on border talks. How serious is the situation in Doklam? I think it is different from previous such occasions. The last most serious one was Depsang in 2013 and we had Chumar after that (2014). But basically you could say that since the 1980s we have had a modus vivendi with the Chinese. It was formalised during Rajiv Gandhi’s visit in 1988 and then during the border peace and tranquility treaty of 1993, which contained both sides to maintaining the status quo and where they had doubts about a part of the boundary, they would actually sit down and talk their way through the problem. And that has helped keep this more or less peaceful for many, many years.

What is different this time? It is much more complicated for three reasons. One, it is happening near the western tri-junction of India, Bhutan and China. So it involves three countries. And that’s a tri-junction area where, in principle, all three countries have to agree on the posts. Two, it represents a change in the status quo, and a considerable change, because to build a road represents a permanent presence. Three, I can’t recall this kind of rhetoric for a very long time. The spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Office saying this is very serious, and so on. In the past we have handled this sort of thing with quiet diplomacy. It wasn’t always easy, but both sides were able to achieve a resolution

satisfactory to both. In most cases, it amounts to restoring the status quo and then discussing whatever issues either side might have. That’s for the immediate incident, but there is a broader context as well. India- China ties are under stress for some time, whether it is the Chinese attitude toward the membership of the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group), or Masood Azhar’s listing (as a global terrorist by the UN), or the CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), all of which have come up in the last few years. My own sense that both of us must sit down and worked out a new modus vivendi to govern the relationship. We have both since the ’80s been rubbing up against each other in the periphery we share. So we do need a new strategic dialogue to discuss how we should sort out problems. Can it be done, will it be difficult and so on? Maybe, but we must make the attempt. It is in both our interests to do so.

Isn’t it particularly worrying that the Doklam incident is taking place in an area previously considered settled, or at least not an active part of the boundary? The Sikkim tri-junction is basically the watershed between the Amo (also called the Torsa river) and the Teesta rivers in the Chumbi valley, so it is clear, and parts of it have been settled. Since 1960, when this was discussed by both sides, both sides have constantly said that this boundary is not such a problem. But the tri-junction remained to be settled, and that is a part of the issue.

It does seem as if China is not only changing the status quo, it is taking control, however temporarily, of a significant part of the Doklam plateau by setting up tents there. What is the message China is giving here? I am not aware of what is actually happening on the ground. On the message, you need to ask the Chinese. They are very clear about what they mean to say. And I think you should take what they say at face value. Certainly, what their Foreign Office spokesman says must be taken seriously.

Is there a similarity between what China is doing in Doklam and what is has done previously in the South China Sea… laying claim to certain areas, pushing the boundaries on where its armed forces are placed? I’d rather not get into historical analogies, parallels and all the rest of it. And rather than guessing at their motives, I would much rather test propositions by actually sitting at a table and talking things through. That’s a more practical way than assuming and drawing lessons from around the world. You can construct beautiful theories, and many people have. But the only way to deal with the Chinese is directly, both on the ground and through a negotiation.

You mentioned theories, so I want to list some. One is that this is a reaction to India’s new alliance with the U.S. The other is that statements made in India, for example a Chief Minister questioning whether our borders are with Tibet or China, have triggered this… There are clearly a thousand such irritants on both sides. I consider them as symptoms of stress in the relationship, a relationship that needs to be recalibrated.

Some suggest the stress point is internal for China, and President Xi Jinping is showing strength ahead of a possibly difficult Chinese Communist Party National Congress this October-November. As a general rule, I don’t think foreign policy affects domestic politics in either India or China, certainly not to the extent most foreign policy wonks [assume it does]. India and China have very complex internal politics. None of our elections, for example, hinge on foreign policy. And in China too, like before 1962 with the Sino-Soviet polemic, foreign policy can be used in domestic debates, but it’s not what drives it. We should deal with what is on the ground and what we have, rather than where it has come from. This is not a mind- reading exercise. It is clear that we are not on the same page, which is why we need to evolve a new modus vivendi .

When it comes to the rhetoric from the Chinese side, has India adopted the correct course by not responding, issuing only one statement in the face of the barrage from Beijing? I don’t want to second-guess the government, as I don’t know what they know. I presume they are doing what they are on the basis of facts that they possess. The ultimate test of what they do is the end result. Some of these situations take a long time to resolve. The situation at Sumdorong Chu (Wangdung, north of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, that saw action in 1986), for example, took eight-10 years to resolve.

Is it also significant that everyone is speaking of an India-China stand-off, when in fact the area under dispute is claimed by Bhutan, not India? It is Bhutanese territory, but we are there because of Bhutan and we have a certain relationship and certain obligations to Bhutan. In this case, China’s actions have disturbed the status quo, and that needs to be addressed.

You’re saying India came to Bhutan’s rescue… I wouldn’t use such dramatic terms; there is a relationship with them, which took us [to Bhutan]. According to our treaty, it says we will respect each other’s national interests, we don’t need more than that.

Is there a need to strengthen that treaty from 2007, as some have suggested, to include a military pact? If you feel that you need to signal anything more politically, that you need to show more resolve towards each other than you can change it at that point, that is a political choice. I don’t think the treaty requires any changing.

A Chinese scholar has suggested that if India could come to Bhutan’s aid, then a “third country” would be justified coming to “Kashmir’s aid”, referring to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Is China playing for a broader equivalence here? I have lived long enough to hear all kinds of rhetoric from China, from the Cultural Revolution onwards. I am not going to judge China’s official policy by what a scholar or someone trying to build a reputation says, or someone who seeks fame at home by riding a wave of nationalism. We have scholars like that too, and let them deal with each other. But I’d rather go by what China does officially, and what they communicate to us officially.

Has China’s decision to invest a considerable amount in terms of resources and reputation in the CPEC also changed the calculations? China has gone in different directions with Pakistan in the past. In 1996, for example, President Jiang Zemin stood in the Pakistan National Assembly and counselled them to put political problems with India aside, and work on other aspects of a normal relationship, trade, travel, etc. Pakistan never took that advice. China’s stand on Kashmir has gone from calling for self-determination to calling it a bilateral problem for India and Pakistan to sort out. Today they have a commitment to Pakistan that is explicit, in terms of the CPEC. But let’s see how this evolves… We should be worried more about our own interests with China, rather than with others.

But were CPEC and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a factor? One must note that India and Bhutan are the only countries in the region that declined to be a part of the BRI. The CPEC is a much bigger semi-permanent commitment to Chinese presence in Pakistan, and to Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, and that should be noted by us. And we should deal with our direct sovereign interest with China in our relationship.

In your recent book ‘Choices’, you have spoken of the inevitability of India and China challenging each other. Is the Doklam stand-off part of that trend? What I wrote was that China will be increasingly assertive, and so will we. It is part of our development. Our dependence on the rest of the world for our own economy has grown tremendously. In our case, when we started reforms (in

early 1990s), merchandise trade was about 18% of GDP. By 2014, it had gone up to 49.3% at its peak (it has since shrunk). But the fact is, our need for the world in terms of trade has gone up many times, and the same is true for China. So we will act abroad much more, trying to create an environment that enables us to grow, to shape the environment. We have interests abroad, we will be involved in the politics of other countries as well. This is a natural consequence, and India and China have done this faster than any other economies in history.

Is the clash inevitable then? That depends on whether we can work out a new way of dealing with each other in this changed scenario. At one stage, both our leaderships would say there is enough space for both India and China to grow. I don’t hear that so much any more, but they haven’t said the opposite either. These are man-made issues, and that means there are solutions to them, so long as we respect each other’s core interests and manage our differences.

Given your own experiences in negotiating previous stand-offs in Depsang and Chumar, what do you think are the chances of de-escalation? I don’t know enough about this situation. I think what worked in previous such occasions was the fact that neither side wanted to get into trouble or be embarrassed militarily. The simplest way forward is to restore the status quo ante, which means clearing the area of both armies and then talking about it. We have had stand-offs that have lasted a long time in the past too, so there are no timelines.

But do you think talks are the only way forward, or do you see the risk of a military escalation? What would a military conflict solve from either side’s point of view? But both India and China would have to reach that same conclusion at the same point of time to avoid it.

You’re not ruling it out? Since the Chinese Foreign Ministry has invoked 1962, our Defence Minister has responded with an equally aggressive tone… That’s an extreme, but part of any negotiation is also the threat of violence. Some of the rhetoric is often meant to make space for negotiation. So right now, we are working out the terms of engagement, but I don’t see it in either side’s interest to have a military conflict.

Since 1988, there have been incremental improvements on managing the boundary between us. Do you think the clock has been reversed? No, not yet. They are clearly signalling that the situation is a new one. But whether they have done it to reverse the clock, or other reasons, I would be very careful to jump to any conclusions. We don’t have enough knowledge yet to draw conclusions.

Does the situation require the top leadership to be involved to clear the logjam? Well, even when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping meet for the BRICS summit in September in China, there will be some sort of preparatory meetings. We are in touch, we have Special Representatives, and we have had a series of visits from both sides. Our ministers have been in Beijing this month. So I presume they will find the ways and means to talk at all levels.

18. Liberty buys Tata’s pipe mills in U.K.

Gupta’s firm has spent more than £500 million on acquisitions in Britain since the start of 2017 Liberty House, the industrial group owned by Sanjeev Gupta, is to acquire two British pipe mills owned by Tata Steel, the second deal to be reached by the company in Britain in just over a week after the group struck an agreement to buy steel producer Arrium in Australia. The two mills, the 42- and 82- inch “longitudinal submerged arc welded” pipe mills, which produce heavy-duty steel for the energy, power and construction sectors in Britain and beyond, employ around 140 people. Liberty House said that all the jobs would be saved and it anticipated further recruitment in the future. “It is anticipated that a support package will help Liberty to stabilise and grow the business through upskilling the workforce and developing new products,” the company said, referring to a regional incentive investment programme, that supports staff training, product and development research. ‘Target oil & gas’ The company plans to use steel from plate mills in Scotland acquired from Tata Steel earlier this year for the pipe mills, and that the Hartlepool and Scunthorpe mills, upgraded, could be together used to develop high- specification piping for oil and gas sector globally. “These mills can be a symbol of a new Britain, integrated with the world economy, exporting a world-class product globally once again. We aim to

engage with all customers of the business locally and internationally to regain our market share,” said Mr. Gupta, whose group also acquired merchant bar mills in Scunthorpe from Caparo on July 3. Liberty House has spent more than £500 million on acquisitions in Britain since the start of 2017, as well as others across the world, including the U.S. and Australia, as part of a strategy of acquiring struggling businesses with potential and integrating them into their end-to-end business. Tata Steel said the sales agreement was part of its strategy of focusing on its strip products supply chain linked to Port Talbot (it is not selling a neighbouring 20-inch pipe mill as it forms part of that supply chain). “As a responsible seller, we have worked long and hard to find a sustainable future for the 42- and 84-inch pipe mills,” said Bimlendra Jha, the CEO of Tata Steel U.K. The union Unite, which represents many Tata Steel workers, said it welcomed the deal after “months of uncertainty.” ‘Filling gaps’ In May, Mr. Gupta had told this newspaper in an interview that he was open to acquiring Tata Steel’s remaining U.K. assets, following the acquisition of its speciality steel operations and said they would continue to look for opportunities in Britain to fill gaps in the product supply chain. On July 5, the GFG Alliance, also owned by the Gupta family, said it had signed a binding agreement with Arrium, the Australian steel and mining business, with about 5,500 employees.

19. Banks should give more loans to SHGs

Move to generate employment: Jaitley Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Tuesday said that banks should divert loans to self-help groups in order to help generate employment in the unorganised sector in the country. “People who look for work in the unorganised sector are much more than those in the organised sector,” Mr. Jaitley said at the 36th Foundation Day of National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development. “So, if the banking system, through various schemes, diverts loans to this sector, there will be creation of more jobs.” He said that although India had grown over the last two-and-a-half decades, the distribution of this development has not been equitable. “In the last 2-2.5 decades, our growth has increased,” he said. “When the economy improves, in the development, some people are left behind. The number of people left behind is not small. More benefit is received in cities, businesses and [the] organised sector. The urban slums, tribal areas, people on the margins, they do not receive much benefit.”

It was keeping this in mind that self-help groups were devised 25 years ago, so that those in the unorganised sector could get loans, he said.

20. Startup India’s slow pace worries Govt.

Only 39 start-ups have qualified for tax sops even 18 months after its introduction The Centre is concerned about the minuscule number of start-ups becoming eligible for tax benefits under the Startup India programme, with just 39 start- ups qualifying for such concessions even 18 months after the flagship initiative was introduced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Till March (2017), only around 10 start-ups were found eligible for tax benefits,” a senior government official told The Hindu . “In the last three months, though, this number has gone up to 39, we feel this is too low given the programme’s high ambitions.” With the norms specifying that in order to obtain tax benefits, a start-up should be a private limited company or a limited liability partnership incorporated on or after April 1, 2016, few companies qualified for tax benefits in the initial period as there were not many corporate entities incorporated on or after that cut-off date. Norms relaxed The passage of time is mitigating this problem with several firms becoming eligible, said the official, who did not wish to be named. The recent relaxation in norms that include doing away with the requirement of ‘letter of recommendation’ from an incubator/industry association for recognising a company as a start-up or for tax benefits will also help increase the number of start-ups that will qualify for tax benefits. With the changes in norms, which include broadening the scope of definition of start-ups to include ‘scalability of business model with potential of employment generation or wealth creation,’ the Centre has decided to reappraise all rejected applications to give all applicants a “fair chance,” the official said. The aim is to cross 100 by end September.

21. Impact of IBC accounts on bottom line small, says SBI

Have factored in these accounts for the year: Bhattacharya Even if State Bank of India has to take a hit on its bottomline on account of the RBI’s directive on the 12 accounts referred under the insolvency code, it would be ‘bearable’, said a top official.

“We had already factored in these accounts for this year and the provisions now required will be slightly above what we had made,” chairperson Arundhati Bhattacharyya said, adding “it will not make a big difference.” On the impact of the associate banks’ merger on SBI’s recruitment plans, she said that there might be a minor impact. The bank makes entry-level recruitments of 6,000-7,000 bi-annually and this may be slightly lower, she said. She said that of the 70,000-odd workforce of associate banks, 15,000 were in excess, of whom 3,600 have taken VRS. An additional outgo of about ₹22 crore may be needed on account of retirement facilities for employees of associate banks, she said.

22. 5 States, a UT sign pact with Centre on e-Marketplace

Platform aims to ensure transparency, curb corruption In a spirit of cooperative federalism, 5 States and a Union Territory (UT) on Tuesday formally adopted the Centre’s initiative called the Government e- Marketplace (GeM) that aims to ensure that public procurement of goods and services in India worth more than Rs. 5 lakh crore annually is carried out through the online platform for transparency and to eliminate corruption. The States and the UT that signed an MoU with the Centre include Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Gujarat, Telangana, Puducherry and Arunachal Pradesh. Four more, including Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Haryana, will ink such an MoU soon. They would have done so on Tuesday but for some technical issues, and more states/UTs are likely to adopt the GeM later, Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said. This follows a call made by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to all the Chief Ministers in April to ensure that priority is accorded to transparency in public procurement of goods and services. Addressing the chief secretaries of states/UTs on Monday, Mr. Modi had talked about how the GeM can enhance transparency, efficiency and speed in public procurement. ‘Cooperative federalism’ Speaking at the ‘National Consultative Workshop on GeM’, Ms. Sitharaman said, “These states in the spirit of cooperative federalism have adopted GeM, similar to what all the states, as ‘Team India,’ did in the case of the Goods and Services Tax regime. By joining the GeM initiative, the states have supported transparency in public procurement.” Pointing out that procurement of common use goods and services required by various Government (Central and state government) departments/organizations/public sector units is estimated to be over Rs. 5

lakh crore annually, she said all efforts were being made to strengthen the GeM initiative to ensure that the tax payers’ money is spent in a transparent manner.

23. No question of backdoor entry for a promoter to take control of the bank: Rajiv Lall

As investors look for more clarity on the proposed merger of IDFC and Shriram group, Rajiv Lall, MD & CEO of IDFC Bank clears the air on many important issues including the role of Ajay Piramal and how IDFC Bank set to gain deposits in an exclusive interview with The Hindu. IDFC Bank need deposits, not assets. How will the merger help the bank to get deposits? IDFC Bank is gaining access to over 1 crore customers. There is a synergy to have a separate transport company. Today the sales person from Shriram Transport Finance Company (STFC) has a strong relationship with his customer. But he is however constraint as he can offer only lending products. It only happened recently that RBI regulation has become flexible. There was a time when RBI did not allow banks to distribute deposits through an NBFC (non-banking finance company). So, I could not have a strategic tie up with an NBFC to sell my savings accounts to NBFC customers. Now that has changed. So, I can retain STFC effectively as my banking correspondent (BC) so that they can systemically cross sell. So my deposits can go to STFC customers. So, Shriram Transport can act as an BC and get you deposits… Yes, correct. This was not possible before, even when we became a bank in 2015. This happened only later which was a big break through. This was (the decision) which allowed us to acquire Grama Vidiyal (GV) - this was the logic. We are first in the market to use this model, at scale. So we will do the same thing with Shriram City Union Finance (SCUF) and we will do the same thing with STFC. But, SCUF will be merged with the bank… It will be merged like GV. All the GV branches remains subsidiary of IDFC as a dedicated BC. All their assets and liabilities have come to the bank. The same will happen to SCUF. Most of their branches will become BC and some of their branches will become IDFC Bank branches. So, you are saying the main game plan for the merger is to get deposits? From the bank’s perspective, it is two things. One is to get retail assets so our immediate profitability improves and second is to gain the distribution reach and customers through which we can rapidly increase our deposits.

So, the strategy is grow deposits organically… Yes, you could say that. We are using our asset led model to acquire customers profitably so that we can also get liabilities rather than attacking them completely separately and incurring a huge cost of acquiring a liabilities customer just through pure distribution expenditure. You have said that only one approval will be required for the merger. Can you please elaborate? All the mergers, whether SCUF merging itself with the bank, STFC becoming 100% unlisted subsidiary of IDFC limited, the insurance companies becoming a subsidiary of IDFC Ltd, etc -- all these mergers will happen with just one approval for a composite scheme of amalgamation. So you get the approval once and then you have the authorization to do all of the things at the same time. We will require approvals from all concerned. The other issue is what will be Ajay Piramal’s role in the merged entity? He will just be a minority shareholder complying with all the requirements of RBI, in terms of governance and caps on ownership. That’s his only role. Whenever there are significant minority shareholders they contribute in different ways. But there is no question of - he himself is very clear about it - backdoor entry for a promoter to take control of the bank. RBI will just not allow it. And Mr Piramal knows that. Do you see Mr Piramal having a board seat at the IDFC Bank? You know the RBI as well as I do. I will be guided entirely by RBI. My sense is that it is unlikely. End of last month, a significant announcement was made by Shriram which is to appoint Rajesh Laddha, the CFO of Piramal Enterprises, as CEO of Shriram Capital. What will be Mr Laddha’s role in the merged entity? I think he will play an important role in helping execute this transaction. He plays a key role in that process. And we will sit down at the end of 12 months, and it is not only Mr Laddha but about all senior executives on what role they will be playing. Have you informed RBI before making the merger announcement? What we have disclosed to the market will not come as a surprise to the RBI. What will happen to branding of the bank and other companies? So all the operating companies, we will like them re-branded as IDFC-Shriram. So the bank, subject to RBI concurrent, we would like to call it IDFC Shriram. Similarly, IDFC Shriram Transport Company, IDFC Shriram AMC etc. It will be a very powerful brand.

You have said the retail loan portfolio of the bank will be 50% by 2018. Are you on course with that guidance? Yes, we are on course, because we get Rs 25,000 crore portfolio by merging SCUF, our own portfolio will grow to Rs 15,000 crore - so it about 50% of the overall book of Rs 80,000 crore. But you have to get deposits to match the assets… We are confident of mobilizing the deposits, we will get retail fixed deposits, if not savings, because that takes time. But our current accounts are growing very rapidly because our corporate relationship. We have excess SLR and CRR also. So , we don’t have to worry on that front. You are confident of getting retail fixed deposits because you have give them a higher return, is it? Correct. But then why are you not offering higher of savings bank deposits, which is at 4%? Because that becomes a long term challenge. Once you raise the savings bank rate it is difficult to lower it.

24. India-China trade talks deadlocked

Decision on market access deferred Trade talks between India and China remained deadlocked with neither side willing to offer concessions to end the impasse, official sources said. Recent bilateral talks on issues relating to farm products, which took place in the backdrop of the military standoff in the Doklam area of the India-Bhutan- China tri-junction, failed to make any headway, said the trade officials. China deferred taking a decision on grant of market access to Indian rice, pomegranate, okra and bovine meat, while India opted to stick to its ban on imports of apple, pear, milk and milk products from China, the sources said. The details of the talks will soon be shared with the Embassy of India in Beijing, they added. The discussions were held with visiting officials from the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China (AQSIQ) – the body “in charge of national quality, metrology, entry-exit commodity inspection, entry-exit health quarantine, entry-exit animal and plant quarantine, import-export food safety, certification and accreditation, standardisation, as well as administrative law-enforcement.”

“India has an alarming trade deficit that in our view emanates from obstacles to market access in China,” Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar said in a speech in Singapore on July 11. Pointing out that negotiations on the long-standing boundary dispute also still continue, Mr. Jaishankar had said, “When the leaders of the two countries met at Astana, they reached consensus on [the point that]... India and China must not allow differences to become disputes. This consensus underlines the strategic maturity with which the two countries must continue to approach each other.” India’s goods trade deficit with China, which had ballooned to $52.7 billion in 2015-16 from just $1.1 billion in 2003-04, eased marginally to $51.1 billion in 2016-17. During the discussions with the AQSIQ officials, India’s animal husbandry department is learnt to have raised the issue of lack of market access for Indian bovine meat in China. China is yet to lift the import ban on India’s bovine meat that it had first imposed in 1990 in the wake of incidence of Foot- and-Mouth Disease (FMD) in India. The Indian side, in the recent talks, had pointed out that India — through a strong FMD control programme — had ensured FMD-free regions, and that bovine meat was being exported to many countries from those areas. The Chinese side is, however, learnt to have said that since the visiting AQSIQ officials were those dealing only with plant quarantine, India ought to raise the bovine meat issues with the officials overseeing animal quarantine. Incidentally, in January, China had reportedly agreed to lift this prohibition after their officials inspected certain abattoirs in India and expressed 'satisfaction' with the conditions there. The discussions are said to have also turned awkward when the Chinese side brought up the issue of India’s ban on Chinese milk and milk products. The Indian negotiators reportedly resorted to a tit-for-tat approach by contending that milk products would fall outside the purview of the visiting AQSIQ delegation as they were only overseeing plant quarantine issues.

25. 6,000 sq.km Antarctic iceberg splits

Scientists have tracked a crack in Larsen C Ice Shelf for ten years and will monitor the breakaway berg One of the biggest icebergs ever recorded has just broken away from Antarctica. The giant block is estimated to cover an area of roughly 6,000 sq. km, a quarter the size of Wales. An U.S. satellite observed the berg on Wednesday while passing over a region known as the Larsen C Ice Shelf.

Scientists were expecting it. They had been following the development of a large crack in Larsen’s ice for over a decade. The rift’s propa-gation had accelerated since 2014, making an imminent calving ever more likely. The more than 200 metre-thick tabular berg will not move very far, very fast in the short term, but will need to be monitored. Currents and winds might eventually push it north of the Antarctic where it could become a hazard to shipping. An infrared sensor on the American space agency’s Aqua satellite spied clear water in the rift between the shelf and the berg on Wednesday. The water is warmer relative to the surrounding ice and air — both of which are sub-zero. “The rift was barely visible in these data in recent weeks, but the signature is so clear now that it must have opened considerably along its whole length,” explained Prof. Adrian Luckman, whose Project Midas at Swansea University has followed the berg’s evolution most closely. The new Larsen berg is probably in the top 10 biggest ever recorded. The largest observed in the satellite era was called B-15. It came away from the Ross Ice Shelf in 2000 and measured some 11,000 sq. km. Six years later, fragments of this super-berg still persisted and passed by New Zealand. In 1956, it was reported that a U.S. Navy icebreaker had encountered an object of roughly 32,000 sq. km. That is bigger than Belgium. But there were no satellites at the time to verify the observation. Shelf spawns icebergs It has been known also for the Larsen C Ice Shelf itself to spawn bigger bergs. An object measuring some 9,000 sq. km came away in 1986. Many of Larsen’s progeny can get wound up in a gyre in the Weddell sea or can be despatched north on currents into the Southern Ocean, and even into the South Atlantic. The Larsen C shelf is a mass of floating ice formed by glaciers that have flowed down off the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula into the ocean. Scientists think Larsen C is now at its smallest extent since the end of the last ice age some 11,700 years ago, and about 10 other shelves further to the north along the Peninsula have either collapsed or greatly retreated in recent decades. The two nearby smaller shelves, Larsen A and Larsen B, disintegrated around the turn of the century; and a warming climate very probably had a role in their demise.NYT

26. Sorrowful song: on Assam's flood situation

Even as relief is rushed for the Assam floods, longer-term measures must be taken up Assam’s Bihugeet songs celebrate the many colours of the Brahmaputra and its life-sustaining character, with stirring renditions by Bhupen Hazarika in praise of the grit of its people in their most challenging moment — when the river

turns furious during the monsoon and floods the plains. That season is once again upon the State, and the death toll has crossed 40. Lakhs have been put off their normal stride, with tens of thousands displaced from their homes. The deluge has circled vast parts of the Kaziranga National Park, dispersing its wildlife into towns. There are dramatic images of a rhinoceros walking through the streets. A return to normality must now await abatement of the rising waters, and the drafting of a comprehensive relief plan by the Assam government with help from the Centre and the specialised units of the disaster response forces. Yet, short-term measures can have no lasting impact on the Brahmaputra’s course each year, as several factors influence its tendency to overrun its banks in the June-July season. Studies done after the 2012 floods, which affected some 2.3 million people, show that the river’s course from the Himalayan ranges has been bringing lots of sediment, raising its bed above the level of the plains. The Brahmaputra has the second highest sediment transport per unit of drainage area in the world. With aberrant climate and intensive monsoonal flows, flooding poses a major challenge. Assam receives a massive amount of rain every year, and an estimated average of 230 cm is recorded in the Brahmaputra basin. Combined with the characteristics of the river — it enters the State as a single channel but has a wide, braided course later and shrinks near Guwahati before expanding again — such high precipitation produces aggressive floodwaters. Its course has been studied extensively after the 2012 floods, providing insights into how remote sensing can help identify the most vulnerable areas and where remedial measures could work most effectively. Considering that the Assam elections in 2016 were strongly centred on environmental concerns, and the BJP-led government in the State has earlier spoken against big dams, getting a scientific understanding of the flooding phenomenon to inform policy is vital. On the ground, previous attempts at finding solutions appear to suffer from lack of attention to longer-term measures, such as better river management. The focus of civil society has been confined to immediate relief and rehabilitation. The government, on its part, must go beyond the necessary restoration of infrastructure such as embankments, bridges, buildings and communications structures. Relief measures will have to sensitively handle the tensions around identity conflicts between those claiming ethnicity vis-à- vis settled Bengalis. Also, Kaziranga needs better protection . Several wild animals have died in the floods, bringing back memories of the dreadful losses of 2012, when over 500 hog deer, 19 rhinos and 22 sambar perished.

27. Game of chicken in the high Himalayas

With no thaw in sight, much will now depend on wider geopolitical factors. But the costs of conflict are high Another face-off at the Himalayan border has surprised few. Since 2010, nearly 2,500 Chinese “transgressions” have been recorded on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), the undefined border between India and China. But this is not a typical stand-off. The point, or area, of discord is unrelated to the India-China territorial dispute. The present stand-off is near the India-China-Bhutan tri- junction, and in an area where both China and Bhutan hold competing territorial claims. The significance According to the External Affairs Ministry’s June 30 press release, Indian involvement is aimed to prevent China from changing the status quo by building a road on territory claimed by Bhutan, India’s closest ally in the subcontinent. By upholding the rights of its ally, Indian actions are intended to convey the importance Delhi attaches to its special relationship with Thimphu as well as to signal that it intends to preserve its traditional military advantages in the overall Sikkim sector. Beijing’s motivations have been speculated to range from big power bullying as part of a general pattern of China’s approach to its periphery, and driving a political wedge between India and Bhutan, to more mundane operational anxieties in a sector where India has traditionally held the higher ground. What makes the crisis particularly dangerous compared to previous episodes on the border is the absence of an agreed definition of what is at stake. For China, it is about “territorial sovereignty”; for India, it is about “security implications” emanating from a potentially deeper Chinese foothold in the lower Chumbi valley. There are two broad schools of punditry. One argues that the unresolved Himalayan dispute, China’s sensitivity over Tibet and the ensuing security dilemma is the main cause of recurring friction; the other claims that wider geopolitics and threat perceptions have converted the frontier into an arena of competition to keep the other side off balance. Ideally, conflict management strategies should seek to address both these levels of the India-China dynamic. But with the level of mistrust and animosity at record highs, it seems improbable that either side is interested in reassurance gestures. The indivisibility of the object of discord — in this case China’s territorial claims and India’s conception of security in the Northeast — makes an exit ramp or de-escalation difficult. As it stands today, both sides have dug in their heels and signalled a commitment to their respective positions, the Chinese more explicitly and through a flurry of official pronouncements. Breaking the stalemate Where do we go from here? By interposing itself in close proximity to Chinese border guards, India has created a stalemate that can only be broken via one of

three ways: one side backs off, either side tries to dislodge the other by force, or quiet diplomacy allows both sides to save face. The first scenario seems improbable given the crescendo of rhetoric surrounding the crisis. Rolling back the opponent’s position is also unviable because it would produce an escalation, whether in the local Sikkim theatre or along a wider front on the 3,488 km LAC. Some commentators have been thinking in highly tactical terms where India’s local military advantages are deemed to provide the ingredients of a compellence posture. However, unlike in the eight disputed pockets of the LAC where brinksmanship can be entertained, coercing the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) in an area where Beijing is convinced of its sovereignty and India’s own territorial stakes are not even at play would almost certainly involve fierce reprisals in the form of vertical or horizontal escalation in military and other domains. So we are left with a prolonged stand-off with little prospect for a thaw. Much will now depend on wider geopolitical factors and how each side evaluates its relative position in the international environment. The Chinese seem to exude more confidence on this front. Beijing’s relationships with its main rivals, the U.S. and Japan, seem to be stabilising. While Washington is a divided entity today, the relationship with China has robust bipartisan support with little traction for a new adversarial posture. Dense economic interdependence and a renewed awareness of security interdependence in northeast Asia imply that the Sino-American equation will maintain its complex stability. More broadly, American grand strategy remains focused on the Eurasian heartland threat from Russia rather than a rimland challenge from China. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s bilateral encounter with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit was also instructive. Mr. Abe is reported to have responded positively to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Japanese officials noted that Mr. Abe held a “very friendly” meeting with Mr. Xi and Beijing had shown “goodwill from the top level” towards Japan. The calculations In sum, while China’s eastern front remains a zone of geopolitical competition, Chinese leverage in East Asia has reached a threshold where it can blunt a containment posture from the U.S.-Japan alliance. As Chinese scholar Long Xingchun confidently opines, “Though the U.S. and other Western countries have the intention to contain China through supporting India, they have a wide range of common interests with China.” The West is unlikely to “unconditionally stand on the side of India”. When combined with the strategic depth that China enjoys because of a stable strategic equation with Russia, the international environment from Beijing’s eyes seems comfortable and a far cry from the isolation China faced in the lead-up to the 1962 war or even the 1967 border crisis. Ironically, the reasons for China’s reluctance to escalate the crisis emanate from its strength and rising international profile. Outbreak of hostilities on the

Himalayan border would taint China’s image and undermine the internationalism surrounding the Belt and Road discourse. It would also fuel anti-Chinese sentiment in India, which both Washington and Tokyo would almost certainly profit from. Even on a sub-regional level, a conflict with India would steer China further towards an irredentist Pakistan as its sole partner, a suboptimal outcome for Beijing, which prefers a wider profile in the subcontinent. From Delhi’s vantage point, calculating India’s relative position is less straightforward. Too be sure, policymakers have successfully navigated the uncertainty around Indo-U.S. relations after the interlude of suspense since January this year. The bilateral relationship is stable and poised to grow. The ongoing Malabar exercises involving the Indian, Japanese and U.S. navies in the Indian Ocean also offer psychological comfort to Delhi in the backdrop of the continental stand-off in the north. Some observers, however, exaggerate the geopolitical setting and impute a wider dimension to Indo-U.S. ties that might have faded since the Obama period. Further, with the U.S. inclined to resist Iranian and Russian influence in Afghanistan and further west, a Himalayan Cold War would be a distraction from more pressing geopolitical challenges elsewhere. The situation in the subcontinent is equally complex. Given Pakistan’s unabated proxy conflict in Kashmir, an escalation with China will truly bring the two-front situation back into play after decades. On the other hand, the rest of the neighbourhood would prefer a stable India-China equation. Each of India’s neighbours has adopted a dual track foreign policy where special or friendly ties with India are supplemented by geo-economic linkages with China. A Sino-Indian conflict disrupts this triangular dynamic and impels these states to make choices they would rather not make. This sub-regional reality cannot be wished away by India, or for that matter China. It should be clear that both countries have much to lose in an armed clash and a new Cold War in the region. Hopefully, the virtues of restraint would be obvious to both Delhi and Beijing.

28. Don’t fly into the same storm

If the mistakes of the past are a guide, the purpose of the Air India sale bid should shape the rules Air India’s disinvestment, first attempted by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, is being revived. The sale bid the last time was a flop, shelved prematurely after all the bidders were either disqualified or dropped out. The many factors that were and may still be at work against the sale are not widely understood. Unless overcome, they may again endanger the sale.

In May 2000, bids were invited for a 40% stake in Air India, with a cap of 26% on foreign investment. The airline had reported losses for six straight years, had $70 million debt on its books and was fast losing traffic. More than 18,000 workers were on its rolls for a fleet of just about two dozen planes. Its employee-aircraft ratio, 750, was among the worst. Singapore Airlines, in contrast, had 91 employees per aircraft. Inefficiency, typical in a government- controlled set up, was bleeding Air India. Yet, the quantum of stake on offer made it clear that the government intended to retain a crucial stake, appoint its own directors and continue to have a say in running the business. Put off by the substantial degree of control the government wanted to retain in the airline after the disinvestment, several potential bidders stayed away from the sale, including, possibly the worthiest contender. Plus, in a sale carried out through competitive bidding, reduced interest can impact the valuation. Doomed from start The sale’s stated purpose was to bring on board a strategic partner who would turn around Air India. But the sale’s rules were loaded against candidates with a proven track record — foreign airlines. Lufthansa, Swissair, Emirates, British Airways and Air France-Delta in combination were among those to have expressed interest formally in buying the stake. However, a bidding rule that required foreign airlines to team up with a local partner forced them to opt out. Singapore Airlines, which had also expressed interest formally, roped in the Tatas to proceed with its bid. Those who remained in the fray had their expressions of interest evaluated; those ineligible were disqualified. In the end, the contest was down to two bidders — the Hinduja group and the Singapore Airlines-Tata joint venture. Both were invited to inspect Air India’s books. The Hindujas’ bid was already under fire from the Opposition over allegations related to the Bofors arms scandal. After studying Air India’s financial records, the group presented to the government a whole set of conditions on management control, threatening to withdraw if these were not met. The government barred the Hindujas from pursuing its bid, leaving a sole bidder: the Singapore Airlines-Tatas combine. Private airline owners who had so far orchestrated resistance to the sale from the background, now openly pointed out that the majority stakeholder in Singapore Airlines was a foreign government. The unmasked attack made Singapore Airlines pull out. The airline said in a statement that the intensity of opposition to the privatisation from political groups and the trade unions had surprised it and that in such an adverse climate, it was not confident it could play a useful role. The then Disinvestment Minister, Arun Shourie, clarified that the Tata group, Air India’s erstwhile owner before its nationalisation in 1953, could proceed with its bid without a partner. But the Tatas too withdrew, forcing the government to abort the disinvestment.

If the government was eager to retain its hold over Air India, the private airline owners were anxious that foreign airlines should not gain control over it. Both the motives succeeded. The back story of how the mood against foreign airlines was whipped up was retold at a public meeting by Mr. Shourie. A Delhi-based chamber of commerce wrote to the Prime Minister lobbying against foreign investors being allowed to acquire more than 25% stake in Air India, as this was the rule in the U.S., China, Thailand and Mexico. Senior parliamentarians had sent similarly-worded recommendations. The comparison sought to be drawn was unfair. Under Indian law, investors owning fewer than 26% shares cannot move special resolutions, a restriction that did not apply in the countries the letters cited. After the sale was scrapped, private airlines flourished. Although Air India’s fleet — which includes its subsidiaries — has now grown to around 150 aircraft, it has lost traffic and market leadership to competition. A level playing field If the mistakes of the past are a guide, the sale’s purpose should guide the sale’s rules. Air India’s debt, now about $8 billion, is growing unsustainably. It was bailed out with $5.8 billion of taxpayer money in 2012. The sale’s purpose should be to compensate taxpayers for shouldering the burden of keeping the national carrier afloat. Air India’s disinvestment could deliver this if it results in reduced government interference and increased competition. Remember, most taxpayers are also flyers. Competition in the air travel market will not increase if Air India gets acquired by a private airline in India. The rules should provide foreign airlines a level playing field. Sharp scrutiny of objections can expose and thwart hidden vested interests. Selling only a part of the government’s holding will not free Air India of the ills of public ownership. The government will have to exit the airline cleanly and completely. The reform demands political courage, economic wisdom and business-like shrewdness.

29. CPI inflation slows to 1.54%, IIP at 1.72%

CEA Subramanian hints at need to reboot monetary policy assumptions amid ‘deflationary trends’ Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slipped below the central bank’s lower tolerance level to 1.54% in June and industrial output growth decelerated to 1.72% in May, prompting Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) Arvind Subramanian to hint at the need to reboot monetary policy assumptions including ‘systematic inflation forecast errors’ he had red-flagged earlier.

“The number of 1.54% is historically low and reflects the firm and ongoing consolidation of macro-economic stability,” Mr. Subramanian said soon after the data was released. “The last time we saw such inflation — according to a slightly different CPI series (IW) — was in 1999 and before that in August 1978.” Retail inflation slowed for the third straight month, largely driven by a 1.17% contraction in food prices. Growth in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed for the second consecutive month, with consumer durables’ production contracting by 4.55% in May, following April’s 6.05% contraction. “This low, heartening (CPI) number is consistent with our analysis for some time now — and which will be fully elaborated in the forthcoming Survey — of a paradigm shift in the inflationary process to low levels of inflation, a shift that I think has been missed by all, reflected in the large one-sided, and systematic inflation forecast errors that have been made,” Mr. Subramanian said. “Clearly, this low number and what it implies about underlying price pressures — as well as the latest IIP data just released — is something that, I am sure, all policy makers will reflect upon very, very carefully,” he said. ‘Deflationary trends’ Sanjeev Sanyal, Principal Economic Advisor, in the Department of Economic Affairs tweeted: “I share @arvindsubraman’s concerns about deflationary trends. Policymakers should follow real data rather than error prone forecasting models.” Inflation in clothing and footwear slowed to 4.17% from 4.4% in May, while the fuel and light category witnessed a sharper slowdown, with the reading easing to 4.54% from 5.46%. “The trends in the overall consumer price index and in food prices were expected, but have been sharper than anticipated,” D.K. Srivastava, Chief Policy Advisor at EY India said. “In my view, it is the outcome of demand and supply factors. Demand is subdued and supply is buoyant. That is why there is a sharp downward trend.” In the IIP, mining and quarrying witnessed a sharp slowdown in May, contracting 0.89% from a growth of 3.23% in April. Manufacturing activity also slowed to 1.21% from 2.35%. “The subdued growth in manufacturing is worrying as some of the major sectors like capital goods, automobiles and textiles have shown degrowth,” A Didar Singh, Secretary General of FICCI said.

30. Nod for Bangladesh JIN pact

Agreement involves promotion, protection of investments In a bid to boost bilateral investments between India and Bangladesh, the Cabinet on Wednesday gave its approval for the Joint Interpretative Notes (JIN) on the Agreement between both the nations for the Promotion and Protection of Investments. The JIN would impart clarity to the interpretation of the existing Agreement between India and Bangladesh for the Promotion and Protection of Investments. The JIN includes interpretative notes to be jointly adopted for many clauses, including, the definition of investor, definition of investment, exclusion of taxation measures, Fair and Equitable Treatment, National Treatment and Most Favoured Nation treatment, expropriation, essential security interests and Settlement of Disputes between an Investor-and a Contracting Party, an official statement said. Joint Interpretative Statements, in general, play an important supplementary role in strengthening the investment treaty regime. With increasing Bilateral Investment Treaty disputes, issuance of such statements is likely to have strong persuasive value before tribunals, the statement said, adding that such pro-active approach by States can foster a more predictable and coherent reading of treaty terms by arbitration tribunals.

31. UDAN ‘unites’ rivals Air Odisha, Air Deccan

Regional airlines join hands to import aircraft spares While the government is upbeat about the prospect of bringing the hinterland closer to the mainstream with its regional connectivity scheme, few would have envisaged that UDAN would help bring rival airlines together in the quest to acquire new aircraft. Air Odisha and Air Deccan, who won the bid to operate flights on regional routes, have joined hands to get a sweeter deal on aircraft imports and informed the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) that they plan to induct the 19-seater Beechcraft 1900D aircraft for flight operations under the scheme for regional connectivity, sources said. While Air Odisha will import five aircraft, Air Deccan will get three planes to commence operations by September this year. Both the rival airlines have collaborated to import aircraft spare parts — seen as a unique arrangement in the aviation network — for the Beechcraft 1900D aircraft. “We plan to induct minimum five Beechcraft 1900D to commence operations under the UDAN scheme by September,” Air Odisha chief executive officer Sanjay Arya said. “The negotiation with the leasing firm is over.”

“We have made an arrangement [with Air Deccan] to induct aircraft spares for running smooth operations for the next three years since we have a common aircraft type. To provide uninterrupted air connectivity, we need aircraft spares on standby. You cannot afford to have planes grounded,” Mr. Arya said. Air Deccan founder G.R. Gopinath did not respond immediately to multiple calls and a text message. Aviation analysts said the collaboration of both the regional players on aircraft spares bodes well for the industry. “Air Odisha and Air Deccan synergizing core operations and maintenance makes both strategic, financial and management sense since core commonalities exist with both operators in the aircraft they operate and the routes they intend to fly,” said Mark D. Martin, founder and CEO at Martin Consulting India. Code share alliance “Consider this arrangement more as a micro version of a code share alliance between two airlines where one chooses shared services as opposed to setting up two monolith operating entities.” Mr. Martin called for a reduction in the average customs clearing time for aircraft spares and parts, which he said, has not come down as “archaic procedures” are in existence since 1990s. The Centre, in March this year, awarded flying rights on 128 routes connecting 70 airports to five airlines — SpiceJet, Alliance Air, TruJet, Air Deccan and Air Odisha Aviation — in the first round of bidding of the UDAN scheme. Fares under the scheme are capped at ₹2,500 for an hour’s flight and airlines get subsidy from the government for losses incurred as a result of lower fares. Air Odisha has won the rights to operate 50 routes and Air Deccan has bagged 34 routes through a bidding process. Both the airlines will connect the most number of unserved and underserved airports among the five airlines selected to operate flights under the UDAN scheme. The five airlines are mandated to start flight operations under the scheme by the end of September, failing which the carrier will lose their licence to start services on the selected route. Alliance Air, SpiceJet and TruJet have already started flights on various routes under the scheme.

32. Juno in closest encounter with Great Red Spot

Scientists hope the NASA exercise will help unlock mysteries as what forces are driving the mammoth cyclone A NASA spacecraft in orbit around Jupiter began transmitting data and images on Tuesday from humanity’s closest brush with the Great Red Spot, a flyby of

the colossal, crimson storm that has fascinated Earth-bound observers for hundreds of years. The Juno probe logged its close encounter with Jupiter’s most distinctive feature on Monday evening Pacific time as it passed about 9,000 km above the clouds of the mammoth cyclone. But it will take days for readings captured by Juno’s array of cameras and other instruments to be delivered to scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, and much longer still for the data to be analysed. Scientists hope the exercise will help unlock such mysteries as what forces are driving the storm, how long it has existed, how deeply it penetrates the planet’s lower atmosphere and why it appears to be gradually dissipating. Astronomers also believe a greater understanding of the Great Red Spot may yield clues to the structure, mechanics and formation of Jupiter as a whole. Bigger than Earth “This is a storm bigger than the entire Earth. It’s been there for hundreds of years. We want to know what makes it tick,” said Steve Levin, the lead project scientist for the Juno mission at JPL. What powers the storm Dr. Levin said the storm is believed to be powered by energy oozing from Jupiter’s interior combined with rotation of the planet, but the precise inner workings are unknown. Some of the most valuable data from Monday’s flyby is expected to come from an instrument designed to peer into the red spot at six different depths, Dr. Levin said. The churning cyclone ranks as the largest known storm in the solar system, measuring about 16,000 km in diameter with winds clocked at hundreds of miles (km) an hour around its outer edges. It appears as a deep, red orb surrounded by layers of pale yellow, orange and white. The red spot has been continuously monitored from Earth since about 1830, though observations believed to have been of the same feature date back more than 350 years. System shrinking Once wide enough to swallow three Earth-sized planets, the famed Jovian weather system has been shrinking for the past 100 years and may eventually disappear altogether. Still, the spot remains the most prominent characteristic of the solar system’s largest planet, a gargantuan ball of gas — mostly hydrogen and helium — 11

times the diameter of Earth with more than twice as much mass as all the other planets combined. Monday’s encounter with the Great Red Spot was the latest of 12 flyby missions currently scheduled by the NASA for Juno, which is to make its next close approach to Jupiter’s cloud tops on Sept. 1.

33. Four ways to shrink your carbon footprint

Going without cars a crucial step Researchers in Sweden have identified the top four things people can do to reduce their carbon footprint, but warned on Tuesday these steps are rarely promoted in the public sphere. The report in the journal Environmental Research Letters described a “missed opportunity” to let people know the most effective steps they can take reduce carbon dioxide emissions, a primary driver of global warming. “We found there are four actions that could result in substantial decreases in an individual’s carbon footprint: eating a plant-based diet, avoiding air travel, living car-free, and having smaller families,” said lead author Seth Wynes of Lund University in Sweden. “For example, living car-free saves about 2.4 tons of CO2 equivalent per year, while eating a plant-based diet saves 0.8 tons of CO2 equivalent a year.” No airplanes Avoiding airplane travel saves about 1.6 tons of CO2 equivalent per trip. By far the biggest action was having one less child saves an average of 58.6 tons of CO2-equivalent emission reductions per year, the report said. “A U.S. family who chooses to have one less child would provide the same level of emissions reductions as 684 teenagers who choose to adopt comprehensive recycling for the rest of their lives,” it said. These four steps were identified from an analysis of 39 peer-reviewed papers, carbon calculators, and government reports that calculate how individual lifestyle choices may reduce greenhouse gas emissions. When researchers looked to see which anti-carbon actions were promoted in Canadian textbooks and government communications in the United States, Australia, Europe and Canada, they found a general focus on “incremental changes with much smaller potential to reduce emissions.” For instance, commonly promoted government strategies included changing light bulbs and comprehensive recycling.

Researchers said these steps are respectively eight and four times less effective than a plant-based diet. None of the Canadian textbooks mentioned limiting family size as a way of reducing one’s carbon footprint. Streamlining the message from schools and from governments could make major steps toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions beneath the levels needed to keep the planet under 2 degrees Celsius of climate warming, researchers said. “There are so many factors that affect the climate impact of personal choices, but bringing all these studies side-by-side gives us confidence we’ve identified actions that make a big difference,” said Mr. Wynes.

34. Diplomacy at work to end China stand-off

MEA strikes measured note on situation at Sikkim tri-junction Diplomatic channels are still being used to resolve the stand-off between India and China despite rising rhetoric from Beijing, the Ministry of External Affairs said on Thursday, continuing to strike a measured note on the situation at the Sikkim tri-junction that has entered the second month. “We have diplomatic channels, we have embassies in both capitals that are available and they will continue to be used,” MEA spokesperson Gopal Baglay said, repeating Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar’s comments on Tuesday that India and China were a “factor of stability” in a turbulent world, and that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping had agreed not to allow “differences to become disputes.” “The Foreign Secretary’s speech underlines our approach. We are very sure of the approach we are taking on this issue,” Mr. Baglay said, refusing to be drawn out on comments from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs that have repeatedly repudiated the MEA’s comments and have denied the contention that Mr. Modi and Mr. Xi had a substantial conversation on the sidelines of the G20 and Mr. Jaishankar’s statement that the stand-off mirrors previous such encounters. “[It] is utterly different in nature from the previous frictions between the two sides at the undefined sections of the China-India boundary,” Chinese spokesperson Geng Shuang said on Wednesday, again urging India to immediately pull its troops back to the Indian side of the boundary and “properly settle this incident.” However, the MEA spokesperson didn’t confirm or deny if National Security Adviser Ajit Doval will travel to Beijing for a scheduled meeting of NSA’s of all BRICS countries on July 27-28 ahead of the BRICS summit in Xiamen in

September that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend. Despite the tensions over the Doklam situation where hundreds of Indian and Chinese troops are believed to have camped out across from each other on territory claimed by Bhutan, the government has been sending Ministers and officials for all the BRICS meetings on Agriculture, Education, Culture and Environment being held in China in June and July. Mr. Baglay also refused to respond to the state-owned China People’s Daily that published a repeat of an editorial from 1962 just before the Sino-Indian War, saying that he wouldn’t “comment on opinions or editorials in the media.” However, India dismissed the Chinese spokesperson’s reference to the Kashmir issue unequivocally. “We have seen the report that they said Kashmir is central to peace and stability in the region. Our stand is absolutely clear, at the heart of the matter is cross border terrorism perpetrated on the people of India including the people of Jammu and Kashmir.…As far as the Kashmir issue is concerned, we have been ready to have dialogue on all issues Pakistan, but in a bilateral framework,” the spokesperson said.

35. Tribunal prohibits dumping of waste near Ganga banks

Green Tribunal for ‘No Development Zone’ close to river An area of 100 metres from the edge of the Ganga between Haridwar and Unnao has been declared a ‘No Development Zone,’ with the National Green Tribunal (NGT) on Thursday prohibiting dumping of waste within 500 metres of the river. An environment compensation of Rs. 50,000 will be imposed on anyone dumping waste in the river. The NGT also directed the Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand governments to formulate guidelines for religious activities on the ghats of the Ganga and its tributaries. The order said: “Till the demarcation of floodplains and identification of permissible and non-permissible activities by the State government, we direct that 100 metres from the edge of the river would be treated as no development/construction zone between Haridwar to Unnao in Uttar Pradesh.” Order on PIL petition Giving its verdict on a 1985 PIL petition of environment activist and lawyer M.C. Mehta — which was transferred to the NGT from the Supreme Court in 2014 — a Bench headed by NGT Chairperson Justice Swatanter Kumar said the authorities concerned should complete projects, including a sewage treatment plant and cleaning of drains, within two years. “The Uttar Pradesh

government is duty-bound to shift tanneries, within six weeks, from Jajmau in Kanpur to leather parks in Unnao or any other place it considers appropriate.” Supervisory panel The court also appointed a supervisory committee, headed by the Secretary of the Water Resources Ministry and comprising IIT professors and officials of the Uttar Pradesh government, to oversee implementation of the directions passed in its verdict. The committee is to submit reports at regular intervals. The Bench further noted that all industrial units in the catchment areas of the Ganga should be stopped from indiscriminate groundwater extraction. The green court reiterated its earlier order of a ban on mechanical mining in the Ganga and said, “No in-stream mechanical mining is permitted and even the mining on the floodplain should be semi-mechanical and preferably more manual.” “Such mining should be permitted only after a detailed and comprehensive assessment of the annual replenishment of sand and gravel in the riverbed and ensuring that the connectivity of the river is not distur- bed and that only a quantity less or equal to the annual replenishment is permitted to be removed from the riverbed or the banks,” it said.

36. Inflation conundrum: on the record low retail inflation

Record low retail inflation poses a monetary policy dilemma for the RBI The latest Consumer Price Index data show headline retail inflation has decelerated to a record low of 1.54% in June . That the reading has slid below the 2% lower bound of the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target for CPI inflation has understandably led to calls for the RBI to support economic growth by cutting interest rates. Economists, including Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian, have openly questioned the assumptions made by the majority of the members of the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee with regard to prices and have urged a reboot of the policy rationale. Core inflation, which strips out the relatively volatile food and fuel prices, has also trended lower and eased below 4% for the first time in at least five years. And with the latest industrial output data from May reflecting weaknesses in key sectors like capital goods and consumer durables, the reasoning behind demands for monetary action that could help spur both investment and consumer demand is evident. Others have also flagged concerns about “deflationary trends” and the risks of relying too heavily on forecasting models. The voices exhorting the central bank to reduce interest rates are only going to grow ahead of its next bimonthly policy review at the beginning of August.

For the six members of the RBI’s rate-setting panel, including Governor Urjit Patel and his deputy overseeing monetary policy, Viral Acharya, the data pose a conundrum that is going to test their sagacity. For one, the beneficial base effect will begin to reverse after peaking in July. Also, the majority of the risks to the inflation outlook that the committee’s participants had flagged collectively and individually at the last meeting in June, when they had opted to sit pat while retaining a neutral stance, are still largely relevant and yet to play out. The impact from the July 1 introduction of the Goods and Services Tax, for instance, will begin to feed into prices only over the coming months — based on the initial anecdotal trends in the prices of various services, there could be upward pressure on core inflation. Similarly, the payment of increased allowances under the Seventh Central Pay Commission’s award, which came into effect from the beginning of this month, could also start to transmit into price gains. As Mr. Acharya had pointed out at the last meeting, fiscally expansive measures taken by several State governments to address farmers’ demands for debt relief could pose a “tail risk” by triggering generalised inflation over time. And the restoration of the health of the banking sector, a key caveat for ensuring effective transmission of monetary policy, is as yet far from being close to a fruitful outcome. Ultimately, the RBI will have to weigh whether the current trend in inflation is likely to remain durable enough for it to make a move that doesn’t end up proving to be a costly error in the long run.

37. Stellar run-getter: on Indian cricketer Mithali Raj's feat

Mithali Raj has done much more than just put her stamp on the record books Mithali Raj has been the torch-bearer for women’s cricket in India for 18 years. Ever since her international debut as a 16-year-old in a game against Ireland in 1999, she steadily grew in stature, batting with aplomb, scoring critical runs and shepherding her team. Today she is a colossus, and it is not surprising. Consistency has been her second skin and confidence a steady ally. When she scored 69 runs against Australia in the ICC Women’s World Cup game at Bristol on Wednesday, she became the first woman to scale the 6000-run peak in one-day internationals. It was a milestone that proved inevitable once she went past the previous record-holder for the highest number of runs, England’s Charlotte Edwards with 5992. Ironically, Raj was fated to succeed at the individual level and also suffer the agony of her team’s defeat. It is a trope that has shadowed her for the most part, though in recent times she has led a squad that displays vigour and has snatched some key victories. During a large chunk of her career, she remained the team’s spine, much like how Sachin Tendulkar was in his early years before Rahul Dravid and Sourav Ganguly stepped up. Now 34, she can breathe a touch easy, with the rise of Smriti Mandhana and Punam Raut giving the team punch.

The world records for highest runs and wickets are now both held by women in the current Indian squad – Raj (6028 runs) and Jhulan Goswami (189 wickets), respectively. It is a rare occurrence and it needs to be celebrated more wholesomely. In the men’s game, Sunil Gavaskar and Kapil Dev had led the Test batting and bowling charts, respectively, but at different points in time, not together. The achievements of Raj and Goswami, and the exploits of Mandhana and Raut might give the impression that Indian women cricketers have it easy. Nothing could be farther from the truth. For years, women cricketers have fought patriarchy, toiled at private academies and yearned for frequent international matches. The Board of Control for Cricket in India only belatedly, and that too under pressure from the ICC, embraced women’s cricket — and its support to the women’s game is still far from adequate. For instance, Raj, a regular in the Indian squad, has had the opportunity to play 183 ODIs — compared to Yuvraj Singh’s 304, even though he made his debut a year after her. A trained Bharatanatyam dancer, Raj has been an eloquent spokesperson for her sport, detailing the challenges and busting prejudices and stereotypes. Recently she swung a heavy bat for gender equity when she rightly snubbed a reporter, who asked about her favourite ‘male’ cricketer. Raj’s riposte was terse , but captured the arc of stereotypes a woman cricketer has to fight: “Do you ask the same question to a male cricketer? Do you ask them who their favourite female cricketer is?” Maybe we should.

38. The Islamic State after Mosul

Like al-Qaeda before it, the IS is expanding its asymmetric reach as its territorial strongholds come under attack Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi declared the end of the ‘Caliphate’ late last month after his troops captured the Grand al-Nuri Mosque in Mosul from where Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi proclaimed himself the ‘Caliph’ of the world’s Muslims three years ago . The 12th century mosque, whose famed leaning minaret had been adorned with the black flag of the Islamic State (IS) since June 2014, was a symbol of power for the jihadists, so much so that they blew it away and retreated as the Iraqi troops closed in. Within weeks, Mr. Abadi was in Mosul to formally announce the liberation of Iraq’s second largest city. It’s no small achievement for an army which fled Mosul in droves when IS fighters marched in three years ago. The IS ruled the city with an iron fist ever since and expanded its influence beyond the city limits. The Iraqi army took months to recover from the humiliation it suffered and launched a counter- terror campaign with help from Iran-trained militias and the U.S. Air Force. They liberated small cities first, such as Ramadi and Fallujah , before finally moving towards Mosul in October last year. The Kurdish Peshmerga also joined in, while the U.S. carried out a massive air campaign. In nine months the IS lost Mosul, the jewel of its Caliphate.

This is in line with the military setbacks the group has suffered in recent months. It has lost more than half of the territories it once held. Its propaganda blitzkrieg has taken a hit and even its ability to recruit new jihadists is under strain in the wake of battlefield losses. Its leader Baghdadi is either dead or on the run. But do these setbacks mean the IS is defeated? Has the 21st century ‘Caliphate’ run its course? The ground realities and a historical analysis of the evolution of the IS suggest otherwise.

Down but not out First, the IS’s proto-state is not completely destroyed yet and it will not be in the immediate future. Though it lost Mosul, the IS still controls swathes of strategic territories in Iraq. Hawijah, a city adjoining Kirkuk that has been with the IS since 2013, continues to pose challenges to the Iraqi troops. The city’s mountainous terrain makes it difficult for the counter-terror forces to move in. Besides Hawijah, the group controls Tal Afar, Salahuddin province and pockets in Anbar and Diyala. In Syria, it still controls Raqqa, its de facto capital which has been with the group since 2013, and Deir Ezzor, the largest city in the east. The battle to recapture Raqqa has just begun by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and will take time like other anti-IS battles. Second, there’s no guarantee that the IS won’t come back to the cities it lost. It had done so earlier. The geopolitical fault lines of West Asia, especially in Iraq and Syria, which helped the IS rise in the first place, remain unchanged. In Iraq, a greater challenge before the government is to win over the people in the north and west, mostly Sunnis, who distrust the Shia-dominated government. In Syria, the battle against the IS is more complicated than that in Iraq. In Iraq at least there is a consensus about what the legitimate force is against the IS. All players, from America and the Kurds to Iran and Shia militias, rallied behind the Iraqi government in the war. But in Syria, there’s no such consensus. Raqqa is being attacked by both the SDF and the government troops. The U.S. is supporting the SDF, while Russia is backing the regime. Turkey, another country that’s involved through its proxies in the civil war, is wary of the SDF because it’s led by the Kurdish rebels. So even if Raqqa is liberated, it is difficult to reach a consensus on who will eventually run the city. If chaos prevails, that would be good news for the jihadists. Third, the IS is fundamentally an insurgency that transformed itself into a proto-state. Now the proto-state is under attack, but the group can retreat to insurgency for its survival. The history of insurgent groups suggests that it is difficult to defeat them outright. Take the more recent examples of jihadist insurgencies. The Taliban regime was toppled and its fighters were driven out of Kabul in 2001 following the American invasion. Their leader, Mullah Omar, died while he was hiding. But does it mean that the Taliban were defeated? Al-Qaeda is another example. After the Taliban were toppled, al-Qaeda was also forced to flee to the mountains. Its leader, Osama bin Laden, was also killed

when he was hiding in Pakistan. Still al-Qaeda made a comeback by mobilising jihadists in Africa, Syria and Yemen. A more specific example would be al- Qaeda in Iraq, which was almost defeated once, only to be morphed into today’s IS as a more vigorous, deadly force. The IS has already given enough indications that it will move back into insurgency if its proto-state was destroyed. In May 2016, Abu Mohammad al- Adnani, who was the second-most powerful leader in the IS till his death in an air strike in August that year, said in a long audio message released on the Web: “Whoever thinks that we fight to protect some land or some authority, or that victory is measured thereby, has strayed far from the truth.”

In insurgency mode In fact, the IS has changed its strategy after the ‘Caliphate’ came under attack. Instead of expanding its territories, the group became defensive at its core and unleashed a wave of terror attacks elsewhere in the world, from Paris to Brussels and Berlin to Dhaka. It has also established franchises in other countries. Boko Haram, Africa’s most dreaded terror outfit, has declared loyalty to the IS. In eastern Afghanistan, the IS has a branch — the Islamic State of Khorasan — which is directing the group’s operations in South Asia. The recent outbreak of a war in the Philippines, where armed jihadist groups that have declared loyalty to the IS have been fighting government forces, suggests that the IS is expanding its asymmetric reach when its core is under attack. All this suggests that the threat is far from over. The IS has already transformed itself into a globalised idea and outsourced its terror mission to groups and individuals who subscribe to its world view. So even if the IS core is destroyed, the IS insurgency, or an ‘al-Qaedafied’ Islamic State, will continue to pose security challenges.

39. It’s not help, it’s work

We need a legislation to regulate domestic work Employing a help in house? Only after verification,” says the ad’s headline. Below, in capital letters, appears a warning: “An unverified domestic help can pose a serious security risk.” And then a call to action: “Contact your beat constable or local police station for domestic help verification.” The copy is set against a visual of a cop taking a picture of a young girl, presumably the domestic help, while an elderly woman, her employer, looks on. The girl picked to represent the ‘domestic help’ has the features of an adivasi, is slightly built, and dark-complexioned. She is shown standing, in one corner of the frame, while the cop and her employer are seated.

Readers of English newspapers would be familiar with this ad campaign, urging them to get their domestic helps verified by the police. Of late, these ads have become a matter of great concern for unions, domestic workers, and social activists, who say the campaign reeks of class prejudice. But what they find most objectionable is the criminalisation of people on the basis of their occupation. Copies of so-called police verification forms are doing the rounds of housing societies across Delhi. Domestic workers are being made to fill up the form and submit them to the nearest police station. The data sought by the form includes, among other things, the domestic help’s “petwords of speech”, “physical built”, “complexion” and “handwriting specimen”, besides descriptions of eyes, hair, tattoo marks, and prints of all the fingers of both hands. No such information is sought about the employer, despite there being ample evidence to suggest that the security threat works the other way too. Indeed, hardly a week goes by without some news report about a domestic help being abused by her employer. Cases of torture, beatings, sexual assault, and incarceration are common. If anything, one could argue that in this sector, it is the employer who poses a bigger security threat — to the employee. Lack of recognition For the record, no other category of workers is required to register themselves with the police. In a country where 93% of the workforce is in the unorganised sector and therefore beyond the purview of most labour laws, domestic workers represent a new low in terms of disempowerment: they are not even recognised as workers. Their work — cooking, cleaning, dish-washing, baby-sitting — is not recognised as work by the state. Criminalisation is thus the last straw. India has only two laws that, in a roundabout way, construe domestic helps as workers. The Unorganised Workers’ Social Security Act, 2008, (UWSSA) and the Sexual Harassment of Women at Workplace (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, 2013. While the former is a social welfare scheme, the latter is aims to protect working women in general. Neither of these recognises domestic helps as rights-bearing workers. Yet this recognition is a necessary pre-condition for state regulation. Strangely enough, it exists — in the form of a draft National Policy for Domestic Workers. This policy not only calls for promoting awareness of domestic work as a “legitimate labour market activity”, but also recommends amending existing labour laws to ensure that domestic workers enjoy all the labour rights that other workers do. But the government seems to be in no hurry to adopt it. Domestic work as an economic activity is too vast and employs too many to remain unregulated. Though the 2011 NSSO data put the number of domestic workers at 3.9 million, trade unions estimate the number to be around 10 million. Most of these are from vulnerable communities – Adivasis, Dalits or

landless OBCs. Nearly all of them are migrant workers. And an overwhelming number are women. The apparently endless supply of domestic workers has a lot to do with the decline of employment opportunities in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, which took a hit post-2008. At the same time, demand kept rising, as the entry of middle class and upper middle class women into the male- dominated world of work was not matched in scale by a corresponding entry of men into the (feminised) realm of unpaid housework. Poorer women from the hinterlands stepped in to fill the labour gap, for some remuneration. Today, the economic value of housework is no longer disputed. But the nexus of the state and the market has managed to keep domestic work outside the realm of economic regulation. Neither the Maternity Benefits Act nor the Minimum Wages Act or any of the scores of other labour laws apply to domestic work. Domestic workers can be hired and fired at will. The employer has no legally binding obligations. A regulatory framework Some have attempted to justify the government’s reluctance to regulate domestic work on the grounds that the workplace is a private household which should not be encroached upon by the state. But this argument does not hold since the anti-sexual harassment law recognises the private household as a workplace. Besides, we already have a draft legislation that presents a model for regulating domestic work without inviting the state into the living room, as it were. The National Platform for Domestic Workers submitted a draft bill, the Domestic Workers Regulation of Work and Social Security Bill, 2016, to the government in January. Going beyond state-centric welfare measures, it calls for the compulsory registration of the employer and the employee with the District Board for regulation of domestic workers. Unlike the UWSSA, which puts the onus on the state, it mandates the collection of cess from the employer for the maintenance of a social security fund for domestic workers, whose access would be mediated through an identity card. This framework achieves both the objectives of police verification — security, and documentation of identification data. But in a refreshing contrast, it does so not by criminalising domestic helps but by empowering them as rights- bearing workers. Thus, to view domestic workers as a security threat is but another way of denying them the status of workers. The policy mindset regarding domestic workers must shift from a law-and-order paradigm to one about workers’ rights. A good place to start would be to consider enacting a Domestic Workers Regulation of Work and Social Security Act.

40. Is CBI the handmaiden of the government?

LEFT The CBI has to be placed under an independent body to investigate cases without government interference The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) acts largely at the behest of the government of the day and this becomes quite obvious from the things done and not done. Take the cases of Mulayam Singh Yadav or Mayawati. Whenever the government wanted to put pressure on them, the CBI was used to pursue the case of disproportionate assets against them. When the politicians came around, the case went cold. If you recall, it just went back and forth. It is in this context that we need to understand Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement in February warning the Congress: Jabaan sambhaal kar rakho, warna mere paas aapki poori janam patri padi hui hai (Hold your tongue, I have your entire horoscope). What did he mean by the statement? The present government has even put pressure on the judiciary. Its master’s voice Similar questions will be asked about the current raids on Lalu Prasad — specially the timing and the manner in which the raids are being conducted. I am not saying there is no case against Mr. Prasad, it is a 10-year-old case. What I am arguing is, whether the CBI acts or not depends on the political will of its master. In this case, there is a clear indication that the Modi government wants Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar to break ranks with Mr. Prasad. There are many such instances. Take Air India, for instance. We have been arguing for the last six years about corruption in the Civil Aviation Ministry during Praful Patel’s tenure — which is also part of the book, The Descent of Air India, by the former Managing Director of Air India, Jitender Bhargava. But look what happened. Our petition dragged on for six years and only recently after the Supreme Court asked the CBI to take a view has the matter moved. The CBI has filed an FIR. But again, the circumstances under which action is now being taken raises question on the timing of the case. Why not then? And why now? Is the move linked to pressurising Mr. Patel in any manner and if so, to what end? We can go as far back as the Bofors case to understand how the CBI has been used by successive governments to work for them. I could give you more examples. Take the case of former Chief Minister of Karnataka, B.S. Yeddyurappa, who had been chargesheeted by the CBI in the case involving donations made to his trust by miners who obtained contracts. The court has let off the former CM. Why didn’t the CBI appeal against the order? The silence is deafening. Need for autonomy The movement against corruption, or the Lokpal movement, had made a plain argument when it sought the delinking of the CBI from the administrative control of the government. In that as long as the government of the day has the

power to transfer and post officials of its choice in the CBI, the investigating agency will not enjoy autonomy and will be unable to investigate cases freely. Then again, there are instances of corrupt officers in the CBI who become pliable in the hands of the government. The CBI has to be placed under an independent body. The CBI, Income Tax Department and the Enforcement Directorate are three instruments which the government has used for political purposes and the pressure they apply is always by way of inaction. RIGHT The fault is not so much of the organisation as of the people who shape its structure and define its powers Institutions are created in response to certain situations. There are times when the responses are in furtherance of a political agenda and there are times when responses reflect the genuine desire to deal with a situation. In either case, institutions need to be upgraded and modernised. A colonial creation The Police Act of 1861 was passed with a political objective — to uphold the imperial interests of the British Empire and create an agency which would be at the beck and call of the masters and carry out their orders, right or wrong, legal or otherwise. During World War II, the Government of India realised that the vast increase in expenditure because of the war effort had provided opportunities to unscrupulous elements to indulge in bribery and corruption. The police and other law enforcement agencies, it was felt, were not in a position to cope with the situation. An executive order was therefore passed in 1941, setting up the Special Police Establishment (SPE) in the then Department of War. In 1946, the government passed the Delhi Special Police Establishment Act, expanding its functions to cover all departments. With the passage of time, more and more cases came to be entrusted with the SPE. In 1963, through a resolution, the government metamorphosed the SPE into the CBI, under the Ministry of Personnel. It has since gradually evolved into a multifaceted, multidisciplinary investigating agency. Criticism and inaction The CBI has been criticised from time to time. Justice J.S. Verma in an article published in 2009 stated that “it is sad that even now the CBI continues to disappoint the people whenever it deals with cases against the powerful”. The Supreme Court [in 2013] called it a “caged parrot”. The criticism is valid, but can we hold the CBI responsible for that? Successive committees at different periods of time suggested changes in the composition and structure of the CBI. As far back as 1978, the L.P. Singh Committee recommended the “enactment of a comprehensive central legislation to remove the deficiency of not having a central investigative agency with a self-sufficient statutory charter of duties and functions”. The 19th report of the parliamentary standing committee

(2007) recommended that a separate Act should be promulgated for the CBI “in tune with the requirements of the time to ensure credibility and impartiality”. The 24th report of the parliamentary standing committee (2008) was of the unanimous opinion that “the need of the hour is to strengthen the CBI in terms of legal mandate, infrastructure and resources”. It is unfortunate that none of these recommendations were acted upon. Who is to blame then? The government or the CBI? It is unfair to blame the organisation when it is not given the required legal mandate, when it is not provided with the requisite manpower and financial resources. It is true that some of the recent Directors of the CBI brought a bad name to the organisation, but the truth of the matter is that in their cases the selection process was subverted or tweaked and protégés of influential politicians posted. The fault is not so much of the organisation as of the people who shape its structure and define its powers. It is a matter of common experience that every time there is a sensational case, the popular demand is for a CBI investigation. The CBI is a first-class investigating agency as long as the government does not interfere with or influence its functioning.

CENTRE It would not be fair to damn an organisation for its ignominious recent performance and ignore its long-term record The CBI has made its mark as an independent, objective and fair investigation agency over the years. It has won the confidence of the public, judiciary and media, resulting in a frequent demand that it investigate sensitive and complex cases, especially of corruption among the upper echelons of public service. Stellar service The high standards and fair play in investigation have been the result of time- tested internal controls laying emphasis on collection of evidence, its objective evaluation, and freedom to record an independent and honest opinion by different ranks as regards prosecutability of an accused or otherwise. The status of an accused or his affiliation to a particular organisation has not been of any importance for investigation. It has been well recognised that it is the quality, calibre and professionalism of personnel that make the CBI what it has come to signify. In order to maintain the standards, the leaders of yesteryear ensured that officers having experience of working in the CBI were inducted in senior supervisory positions. Whenever there was a deviation from the standards set or someone was accused of dishonesty, remedial action was initiated and a review made to improve the internal control mechanism.

This, of course, does not mean that the organisation and its leaders have never faltered in the discharge of their duty. The CBI’s image did suffer a setback in the last few years. The organisation faced its first major challenge when it was accused of inertia in its probe against the high dignitaries in Jain hawala diaries case [of the 1990s]. On a PIL filed in this matter, the apex court, in what is known as the Vineet Narain case, not only decided to monitor the probe but also issued guidelines for selection of officers including its Director with an assured tenure of two years. Later, these were formalised by way of amendments in the Delhi Special Police Establishment Act and modified again in respect of selection of the Director by further amendments through the Lokpal & Lokayuktas Act, 2013. The purpose was to ensure the autonomy and independence of the CBI. Unfortunately, the mechanism put in place failed to deliver. Some of the Directors in the recent past did not inspire much confidence. The organisation lost direction under their leadership and earned the dubious reputation of being a “caged parrot”. The well laid down systems were given the go-by, and decisions to prosecute or not were not taken on merit. Two of its Directors are under investigation for allegations of corruption. Back to basics However, I am of the opinion that it would not be fair to damn an organisation for its ignominious performance for a short interlude and ignore its long-term record. The trend can certainly be reversed by going back to basics, sticking to its time-tested internal procedures and compliance to the tenets of rule of law. The present leadership, no doubt, has an onerous responsibility to bring back the past glory by ensuring that the CBI remains above all influence and works as per the law. To ensure that the CBI is a robust, independent and credible investigation agency, there is an urgent need to work out a much more transparent mechanism for selection of the Director and induction of officers on deputation. The tenure of the Director needs to be enhanced, terms of officers made sacrosanct and the CBI given reasonable financial and administrative autonomy if it has to live up to its motto of ‘Industry, Impartiality and Integrity’.

41. Tale of two countries

Sri Lanka’s tea industry is in celebratory mode, while India’s struggles Sri Lanka has unfurled a series of events to mark the sesquicentennial of its tea industry. Starting with the installation of a bust of James Taylor, the man reputed to have launched commercial cultivation of tea in 1867, the island nation has lined up many programmes throughout the year to commemorate the occasion.

These include: release of a coin, outreach programmes in its seven tea-growing regions, a charity auction, an international Colombo Tea Convention, an award ceremony, and an international tea festival. The aim is to promote tea as well as tourism. The Sri Lankan tea industry, with an annual production of about 300 million kg, accounts for 5% of world output. It is also among the world’s top five exporters of the agro-commodity and contributes to 15% of the nation’s foreign exchange revenue and supports 20% of the country’s population through direct and indirect employment. The celebratory mood in Sri Lanka stands in contrast to the present state of affairs in the Indian tea industry. Big companies are exiting the industry. The remaining few are witnessing increased pressure on their bottom line in the wake of increased costs amid decreased earnings. Tea quality has become an issue and this is reflected in depressed prices. In 2016-17, India’s tea output stood at 1,250.5 million kg. Exports dropped for the second consecutive year. The organised sector’s share was 55.9%, with the balance being accounted for by the small growers. The industry employs over one million people directly and also provides housing facilities to their families, yet it is plagued by the issue of absenteeism as well as worker migration. The industry’s cup of woes has now brimmed over with the Darjeeling imbroglio, where a political shutdown has dealt a body blow to a tottering industry. The tea industry is on its way to losing its second-most valuable crop — the second flush tea. It will not only result in a foreign exchange loss to the country, but also affect the global brand equity of Darjeeling tea in the global market. It is not as if the problems being faced here are unique to the Indian tea industry. The Sri Lankan tea industry is beset with similar problems of high cost, effect of climate change and fluctuating exports. However, unlike India, the sector is in greater focus there. The government pulls out all the stops to promote an export-oriented industry. Sri Lanka also surmounts odds to hold on to its export markets in strife-torn countries like Syria where India is absent now. The current round of events is directed at keeping up its international presence. It rarely misses an opportunity to expose its industry to a world where consumption of the beverage is growing.

42. Gender empowerment

A Bill seeks to integrate transgender persons into the mainstream An effort to bring transgender persons out of the shadows is on with the Kochi Metro, followed by the Chennai Metro, hiring them in their workforce. These steps may have been spurred by the Supreme Court’s judgment on April 15, 2014 in the National Legal Services Authority vs. Union of India case, in

which it asked the government to take steps for the welfare of transgender persons and to treat them as a third gender for the purpose of safeguarding their fundamental rights. But the Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Bill, 2016 is still pending in Parliament. It attempts to bring the community into the mainstream. Decades after the Indian Constitution guaranteed the fundamental right to equality, freedom from discrimination on the basis of sex and gender and freedom of speech and expression, transgender persons face problems ranging from social exclusion to discrimination, lack of education facilities, unemployment, lack of medical facilities, to name a few. Providing recognition The Bill seeks to define and provide recognition to transgender persons, prohibit discrimination against them, ensure inclusive education, create a statutory obligation on public and private sectors to provide them with employment and recognises their right to “self-perceived gender identity”. It also seeks to issue a certificate of identity to transgender persons, provide for a grievance redressal mechanism in establishments and to establish a National Council for Transgenders. The Bill makes the government responsible for chalkingout welfare schemes and programmes which are “transgender sensitive, non-stigmatising and non- discriminatory”. Noting that it is a crime to push transgender persons into begging or bonded or forced labour, the Bill recognises the rights of transgender persons to live with their families, not to be excluded from such households and enjoy and use the facilities of those households in a non- discriminatory manner. However, the Bill does not address the issue of Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code. Further, the definition of a ‘transgender person’ is left vague. It says a transgender person is one who is “neither wholly female nor wholly male or a combination of female or male or neither female nor male and whose sense of gender does not match with the gender assigned to that person at the time of birth, and includes trans-men and trans-women, persons with intersex variations and gender-queers”. The Bill does not separately define any of these terms used, like for example, “trans-men” and “trans-women”.

43. Saraswati, a supercluster of galaxies

One of the largest superclustersto be discovered, and the furthest A group of Indian astronomers have discovered a massive supercluster of galaxies, and have named it Saraswati. The supercluster is about 4 billion light years away and spreads over a “great wall” about 600 million light years

across. This makes it one of the largest superclusters to be discovered and also the furthest. The astronomers belong to Inter-University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA) and Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research (IISER) in Pune, besides NIT, Jamshedpur and Newman College, Thodupuzha. The first supercluster of galaxies, the Shapley Supercluster, was discovered in 1989, and the second, the Sloan Great Wall in 2003. The Milky Way galaxy is part of the Laniakea Supercluster, which was discovered in 2014. “It is the first time that we have seen a supercluster that is so far away. Even the Shapley is about 8-10 times closer,” says Somak Raychaudhury, Director of IUCAA and one of the authors of the paper being published in the latest issue of The Astrophysical Journal . Prof. Raychaudhury was part of the team that discovered Shapley, named after American astronomer Harlow Shapley. “We have a habit of naming galaxies after rivers; the Milky Way is referred to as Akash Ganga. So we thought of naming this supercluster after the ancient river Saraswati,” says Prof. Raychaudhury. Along with Dr. Joydeep Bagchi, the lead author of the paper, he began studying this region 15 years ago, using data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, and found two clusters close by. He suspected they were part of a larger group. Clumpy universe The structure of the universe is not a homogeneous distribution of matter. It is clumpy with galaxies forming clusters and these in turn forming superclusters. There are thin “filaments” that connect galaxies, forming a cosmic web, and there are large voids in between. The current belief is that infant galaxies form in these filaments and then drift to the intersections of the filaments where they grow. The Saraswati supercluster could challenge this premise, because it had formed so early and building such a big structure far back might have been difficult. When sighting a supercluster of galaxies 4 billion light years away, the observer is looking back about 4 billion years. A light year is the distance travelled by light in one year. Given the belief that the universe is 13.8 billion years old, the discovery implies that such a huge structure existed even when the universe was just about ten billion years old. This raises questions about the formation of large structures and the nature of the universe, astronomers say. Dark matter and dark energy are invoked to explain the structure of the universe. Dark matter, being massive, binds together the universe while dark energy, exciting the surrounding space, drives it apart; the balance of the two effects helps in maintaining the universe in its present form.

“Theory has always been confounded by nature. It is true that the balance between dark matter and dark energy can produce large structures, but a supercluster of this size does present an enigma,” says Prof. Raychaudhury.

44. Scant respect for NHRC norms, says SC

‘Panel’s intention is to assist justice system’ In a 26-page judgment, the Supreme Court throws open how human rights and the National Human Rights Commission have suffered a slow death at the hands of the government and the State authorities. The court’s discussion of how the neglect and stagnation suffered by the NHRC has imperilled human rights in the nation is part of a 26-page judgment on the ‘fake encounter’ killings of Manipur, which did not see the light of day until the families of victims approached the Supreme Court. The NHRC, which had investigated 20 of these deaths, was stonewalled for years by the authorities. So much so that the Commission, which is actually headed by a former Chief Justice of India or judges of the Supreme Court, had declared its own failure and termed itself a “toothless tiger”. A Bench of Justices Madan B. Lokur and U.U. Lalit discusses how the NHRC’s revised guidelines of 2010 makes magisterial inquiry into every police encounter death mandatory. The NHRC has to be informed of every encounter death. However, these guidelines are given scant respect by the States. In many States, human rights commissions are obvious in their absence for years, the court said. “The intention of the NHRC is to more effectively assist the criminal justice delivery system and avoid any factual controversies while respecting human rights. It is not as if the dignity of only living persons needs to be respected. Even the dignity of the dead must be given due respect,” Justice Lokur observed The court urged the country’s executive to give the NHRC the respect and dignity due to it.

45. Unsurprising verdict: on TN's quota for medical students

Tamil Nadu’s quota for medical students was unlikely to survive judicial scrutiny anyway The Madras High Court verdict striking down the Tamil Nadu government order that had earmarked 85% of seats in undergraduate medical and dental

courses for students from the State Board is no surprise at all. Once it was laid down by law as well as by the Supreme Court that the National Eligibility-cum- Entrance Test will be the sole basis for admission to medical courses, it was unlikely that any court would have allowed a classification of students based on the stream through which they passed their higher secondary examinations. Tamil Nadu had abolished entrance tests in 2006, and since then has been admitting students based on their marks in the qualifying school examination. The only way out for the State was to get its legislation for an exemption from NEET approved by the President. In the absence of presidential assent for its Bills, it was forced to bring in reservation for State Board students through an executive order, but could not defend it in court. The State government will have to shoulder the blame for the confusion over its admission policy this year, as well as the tension it has caused to students. It ought not to have given the impression to students that presidential assent to its Bills was imminent and that NEET would not be the basis for admission this year. Last year it managed to convince the Centre to amend the law for a one-time exemption for undergraduate courses, but it did not utilise the time to prepare students to master the demanding NEET syllabus. However, the fact that the State government failed to upgrade its educational standards does not mean Tamil Nadu’s apprehensions about NEET do not merit consideration. The fear that NEET would be insurmountable for students from rural and underprivileged backgrounds and those who cannot afford coaching centres is real. So too is the concern that the government may not get committed doctors to serve in rural areas if most of the seats are cornered by CBSE students. According to the government, if a NEET-based merit list is drawn up, 72% of medical seats in government colleges and government quota seats in private colleges would go to CBSE school students. Tamil Nadu is able to run its network of hospitals efficiently mainly because of a recruitment policy that gives weightage to service candidates in post-graduate medical admissions. NEET may be an answer to rampant commercialisation of medical education, but it should not be at the cost of the government’s socio-economic goals. In a country with regional, economic and linguistic disparities, uniformity is no virtue, especially when it is thrust on unwilling States. The political leadership at the Centre as well as in the States would do well to work together to evolve a flexible admission policy that gives some leeway to the States and meets the triple goals of fairness, transparency and freedom from exploitation in admissions.

46. Adrift at sea: on the calving of Antarctica's trillion-ton iceberg

The separation of a massive iceberg shows how precarious the Antarctic ecosystem is The dramatic but inevitable calving of a trillion-ton iceberg from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica raises the question, did a warming atmosphere have a significant impact on the process? Scientists from Project MIDAS, a U.K.-based Antarctic research project that has been looking at the ice shelf for many years, have said the formation of icebergs is natural, and no link to human-induced climate change was available in this case. Yet, the impact of such a loss on the stability of the ice shelf itself may not be benign. Should it disintegrate, glaciers normally feeding into the floating shelf may have nothing to restrain them, and could then contribute to sea level rise, possibly at a slow rate. Such fears are based on the unambiguous data on the thinning of the Larsen Ice Shelf. Researchers said in 2003 that Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves retreated each year since 1980 by about 300 sq.km. This erosion has been interspersed by two previous collapses of smaller ice shelves, Larsen A in 1995 and Larsen B in 2002, the latter providing strong evidence of subsequent accelerated glacier flow into the sea. While any negative impact of the latest event will likely be felt years or decades later, it highlights the need to stop continued warming of the planet from man-made carbon emissions. Antarctica is a climate stabilising factor, and the importance of the marine West Antarctic ice sheet was highlighted by U.S. scientists over four decades ago. In the context of rising emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, a cautionary note was sounded, on warming seas hastening the melting of the shelves that hold its great mass. Indeed, the point made was that except for man-made causes, there was no anticipated factor in the natural geological cycle that would disturb Antarctica. The separation of an iceberg almost 6,000 sq. km in size from the ice shelf shows the importance of such alarms. Fortunately, newer satellite technologies, which were not available during earlier instances of iceberg calving, will help in the study of the fragile peninsular region and Antarctica as a whole. Among the stark effects of changes could be a shift in biodiversity: species like emperor penguins which depend on sea ice to complete their life cycle are at risk if ice cover declines. Any dramatic changes will only add to the worry of irreversible effects of climate change, given that the Arctic and Greenland have also been losing ice cover. Clearly, the loss of a massive portion of the Larsen C Ice Shelf marks another milestone in the evolution of this remote region. Yet, the lack of long- term data on Antarctica, as opposed to other regions, makes it difficult to arrive at sound conclusions. What is clear is that the last pristine continent should be left well alone, with a minimum of human interference, even as research efforts are intensified to study the impact of human activities in the rest of the world on this wilderness.

47. How Brexit has begun to unravel

With just 20 months to go till Britain is meant to leave the EU, it’s become potentially more of a time bomb It’s often the case that when a senior politician ridicules concerns about a policy or programme, you know it is really running into trouble. That’s certainly true of Brexit. David Davis, the “Brexit” secretary (the cabinet minister who heads the clunkily named Department for Exiting the European Union) told a House of Lords select committee earlier this week that he viewed with “amusement” press reports suggesting the government was “softening” its stance on Brexit, with some even suggesting that it might not happen at all. Nicholas Watt, a senior editor of the BBC news programme Newsnight, reported last week he had spoken to a number of senior figures, including influential supporters of Brexit, who now believed there was a “strong chance” it might not happen at all, a sentiment that has been repeated by others in one way or another since.

Electoral setback Questions about the viability of Brexit as the government had laid it out — in Prime Minister Theresa May’s crucial Lancaster House speech in January — emerged rapidly after the election and the government’s loss of its overall parliamentary majority. Ms. May had pegged the election around public support for her version of Brexit, which involved leaving the single market in order to satisfy public demand for border controls, as well as exiting the customs union in order for Britain to be able to negotiate tariff-free deals unrestrictedly with the rest of the world. With the loss of seats, and rise of Labour putting this mandate in question, many asked whether the party would be forced to soften its stance on a number of key issues, particularly given its alliance with the Democratic Unionist Party in Northern Ireland, which had made the issue of the open border between the two Irelands all the more important to solve. (The issue of how to keep an open border while ending the customs union is seen as one of the major practical challenges of Brexit.) There are a number of reasons why those questions have persisted since. Firstly, the practical issues around Brexit — and the interpretation of the “will of the people” vis-à-vis the referendum — seem to be burgeoning rapidly, highlighted by an ongoing controversy over Britain’s membership of the European nuclear industry regulator, Euratom. Britain had committed to leaving the agency when it notified Europe of its plans to leave the union, back in March. The government had suggested it had little option but to leave as it raised issues around jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice among other things, but legal opinion remains very divided, with many (even strident Brexiteers) suggesting that keeping Britain in Euratom remained completely viable and necessary. In fact, among those to criticise the government for its insistence on leaving was none other than the man who had headed the Vote Leave campaign, Dominic Cummings, who labelled those who were pushing to leave Euratom “morons”. Others have warned that by leaving the regulator,

Britain would lose out on crucial developments that had taken place, particularly around radiotherapy, which could delay the delivery of cancer drugs to patients.

No deal or bad deal? Then there’s the confusion on what the government policy on crucial areas is: for example, around the now infamous slogan of the Prime Minister that “no deal is better than a bad deal.” That negotiating position has faced widespread criticism from both within and outside Conservative Party circles, for the perception internationally that Britain’s aggressive negotiating stance was likely to be counteractive. Major questions are now being asked about whether a plan exists for the “no deal” scenario, with differing answers from senior cabinet members. “Are ministers just making it up as they go along?” asked Emily Thornberry, Britain’s shadow foreign secretary at Prime Minister’s Questions this week. Another crucial area over which confusion reigns is the issue of the transitional period that would ease Britain’s exit for it and other member states, in particular what EU precepts or bodies would continue to be relevant over that period. Some fear the scale of the practical challenges facing the government is something they have not necessarily acknowledged. In an extraordinary intervention this week, Amyas Morse, the head of the National Audit Office, told the media ahead of the publication of a report that the government’s approach to Brexit was in danger of falling apart “like a chocolate orange” with little flexibility involved in the government’s approach or willingness to accommodate a backup plan. (The government’s inflexibility on major issues became apparent with the publication of the “repeal bill”, which removes the supremacy of EU law, and which includes no concessions on issues that opposition parties had sought such as on the EU’s Charter of Fundamental Rights.) These issues arise at a time when economic conditions have toughened, factors Brexiteers say are unrelated to the exiting process, but which critics say were just some of the repercussions they had warned about all along. Inflation in May climbed to its highest rate in four years, 2.9%, with weakness of the pound persisting, as wages remain subdued. While the unemployment rate is at its lowest level since the 1970s, the Office for National Statistics said last week that real disposable incomes were falling at their highest rate since 2011, largely as a result of inflation. Anecdotal evidence has also suggested that concerns about Brexit have finally begun to hit investment into the country, while EU workers in areas such as health have begun to leave the country, creating potential skills shortages. Pessimism remains high about what will follow Brexit. On Wednesday, the ratings agency Moody’s warned that it was “unclear” whether the government would be able to deliver a “reasonably good outcome” in its negotiations with Europe, warning that the likelihood of an

abrupt exit with no agreement and reversion to WTO trading rules had increased.

Continental shift Overall, one has a sense of the upper hand lying very much with the continent. Bluff and bluster has continued in Britain. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson scoffed at the “divorce bill”, the multibillion-pound payment that Europe believes is owed to it by Britain as it exits the union, telling MPs that the EU could “go whistle.” But his remarks were calmly rejected by Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator. He warned that without a recognition of the payments owed by Britain, trust would be broken and there would be little chance of negotiations moving forward. “I am not hearing any whistling, just the clock ticking,” he said this week. With just twenty months to go till Britain is meant to leave the union, with the purported mission of “taking back control” of borders, laws, and trade, it’s potentially more of a time bomb.

48. The charge of the right brigade

The right wing’s use of rumour and fake news precedes social media and the current political resurgence I keep six honest serving-men (They taught me all I knew): Their names are What and Why and When And How and Where and Who. I send them over land and sea, I send them east and west; But after they have worked for me I give them all a rest. Rudyard Kipling’s six honest serving-men would have been a disillusioned lot now, hunting not for news but busy correcting fake news, lamenting how the sacred 5Ws and one H that ran through the veins of all news have been sacrificed at the altar of hate politics. Now, news is created without them. Its practitioners are not the professional journalists but a fast-growing tribe of politicians and peddlers of hate, mostly among the right-wing establishment who, with a fake Twitter handle, use altered news, pictures and videos to alter the truth. Rosenthal’s iconic Iwo Jima picture is photoshopped with a tricolour, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s spokesperson goes to TV studios celebrating a surgical strike and an actor and BJP MP relies on an interview in Pakistani media that writer Arundhati Roy never gave but wants her to be tied to an army jeep in Kashmir. Someone else attacks A.R. Rahman that gets retweeted

by a Central minister and later, thankfully, deleted. Pictures of the Gujarat violence are being used for the BJP’s Bengal project. The list of achievements of this regime that floods our WhatsApp is staggering. Thanks to a section of social media samaritans, the BJP’s bluff gets called these days. But this is how it has always been. The right wing’s tryst with rumour and fake news precedes social media and the current political resurgence. It is integral to the macho nationalism and their contested past. Echo from the past In their pantheon of fake news, nothing beats a pamphlet of 1946 that emanated from Bengal and soon spread through the United Provinces (now Uttar Pradesh) and even Maharashtra. The Bang Kanya Ki Marmasparshi Appeal (A Heart-Rending Appeal from a Bengali girl) was a graphic account of a Hindu lady from Noakhali allegedly raped by Muslims in front of her father, father-in-law and children. More than 71 years, later it still makes a chilling read as the lady of the pamphlet makes a fervent appeal to the Shankaracharyas and asks them what happened to their dharma and berates her Hindu brothers for not having blood hot enough to boil on the travails of their sister. The colonial administration of Bengal and the United Provinces could never find who the lady was or the source of the publication. What got discovered was the choreography among the Hindu Mahasabha, Gita Press and other organisations in publishing and disseminating the pamphlet with the goal of fomenting communal trouble. The pamphlet made an innocuous appearance in the Malaviya Ank of Kalyan (the monthly journal of Gita Press) in 1946. It was a special issue of Kalyan in honour of Madan Mohan Malaviya. Kalyan’s circulation of over two lakh a month and a charged atmosphere did the trick. The pamphlet became the talk of the province. By the time the provincial government could be alerted, thousands of pamphlets were discovered by the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) to have been published and printed at Allahabad by the secretary of the Hindu Mahasabha, Prayag. The CID told the provincial administration that the pamphlet “appeals to Hindus and specially to Hindu women to counter the Muslim tyranny with the sword.” The CID was in favour of proscribing that issue of Kalyan . F.R. Stockwell of the CID told Home Secretary Rajeshwar Dayal that “Kalyan has a very wide circulation in India and the effect of the article mentioned may be extremely bad.” Averse to taking any stern action, Dayal came up with a middle-of-the road solution. Admitting that the implications of the article could be “unfortunate”, he also said it was “profitless to take any action in respect of the October issue which is already in circulation.” The district magistrate of Gorakhpur was asked to warn the editor, Hanuman Prasad Poddar, to refrain from “future publication of such incitory matter…”

But the fake news had assumed a life of its own, throwing the police and the CID into a tizzy. Soon, 4,000 more copies of the pamphlet were discovered printed by Kailash Press under the aegis of the Hindu Mahasabha and also by Central Press, Allahabad. Stockwell renewed the demand for proscribing Kalyan and even imposing a big fine. He had the support of Allahabad Collector T.B. Crossley but Dayal was being cautious, or maybe soft. Meanwhile, Kalyan — the journal of bhakti (devotion), gyan (knowledge) and vairagya (asceticism) — continued to spew venom, listing out incidents of Muslim excesses of rape and arson in subsequent issues. In December 1946, Poddar admitted that many of the incidents of violence mentioned in his November article did not take place. But Dayal was in a forgiving mood and did not even take a note of Poddar’s admission. Fake pamphlet news had become real now. G.C. Drewe, Home Secretary of the Bombay government, found the pamphlet published in Mahratta of Poona in December 1946. He proposed to take action against Mahratta under the Indian Press (Emergency Powers) Act, 1931. But he was limited by the fact that the United Provinces government had taken no action. Dayal did not budge. But the news of the pamphlet had become real by now with many publications reporting on it. The biggest irony was yet to take place. Raghavacharya Swami of the Ramanuj Sampraday took up the cudgels on behalf of Gita Press and others and petitioned the governor of the United Provinces saying that proscribing Kalyan was nothing but “encroachment of the liberty of expression of opinion”. Four months before Independence, the pamphlet was distributed again in Gwalior. But now it was about the freedom of the Fourth Estate. Fake news had won.

49. The lowdown on divestment of Air India

What is it?How did it come about?Why does it matter?What next? The Union Cabinet on June 28 gave its ‘in-principle’ nod to divest stakes in Air India — a wholly owned government airline. The Cabinet decided to go for Air India’s strategic disinvestment, which means the government is willing to shed a substantial portion of its stake and hand over the management of the ailing airline to the private sector. The Cabinet also approved strategic disinvestment in five of Air India’s subsidiaries — its MRO unit Air India Engineering Services (AIESL), ground handling arm Air India Transport Services, Air India Charters which operates Air India Express and Airline Allied Services which operates Alliance Air and Hotel Corporation of India (which owns Centaur Hotels), along with a joint venture AISATS. Civil Aviation Secretary R.N. Choubey said at a press conference on June 29 that government think-tank NITI Aayog’s recommendation on strategic

disinvestment of Central public sector units, including Air India, was the immediate trigger for its stake sale. In its report earlier this year, the NITI Aayog recommended an outright sale of Air India. The proposal was then sent for consideration of a core group of secretaries on disinvestment, chaired by the Cabinet Secretary. The recommendations given by the Cabinet Secretary-led group were forwarded to the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which gave its ‘in-principle’ nod for the national carrier’s strategic sale. Air India’s privatisation was first proposed in 2000 when the previous National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government decided to sell 51% of equity of the erstwhile domestic airline Indian Airlines, with 26% stake to a strategic partner. It also decided to allow disinvestment of 60% of Air India, which was running international operations, with 26% foreign entity stake. The move was dropped after opposition from the then Civil Aviation Minister Sharad Yadav. The government’s efforts to turn around the finances of Air India seem to have failed with the national carrier’s eroding market share, continuous losses and a mountain of debts. Air India has not registered profit since over a decade after the merger of the erstwhile Indian Airlines (domestic operations) with Air India (international operations) in 2007. However, the primary reason for Air India’s disinvestment was the government’s inability to cope with its debt of Rs. 52,000 crore. Around Rs. 22,000 crore of the total debt accounts for aircraft acquisition loan and the rest is related to debt for meeting its daily and operational expenses. Air India Chairman and Managing Director Ashwani Lohani recently said the “mountain of debt” which the present management “acquired appears insurmountable and is at the root of all the problems.” Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in an interview earlier this year that around Rs. 50,000 crore could be invested in social welfare sectors instead of financing Air India’s debt. The Central government has already invested Rs. 23,993 crore out of Rs. 30,231 crore slated to be pumped as equity into Air India till 2020- 21 as part of the airline’s turnaround plan approved by the previous government. Air India’s market share has also eroded rapidly over the years due to competition from private players — from 19.4% in 2013 to around 13.3% in May 2017 — in the domestic sector, which made it unattractive to continue running its operations. The good news is that within hours of the government announcing its plan to divest its stake in Air India, India’s largest low-cost airline IndiGo expressed formal interest to the Civil Aviation Ministry in taking over the international operations of Air India. However, it will take some time for Air India’s disinvestment to take off. It has formed a Group of Ministers, headed by Mr. Jaitley, to decide the modalities of disinvestment and come back with a detailed proposal. The group has to take a call on the quantum of stake sale, its unsustainable debt, whether to allow foreign investors to bid for the national carrier or not, if Air India’s operations will be split into domestic and

international before sell-off and whether Air India’s subsidiaries will be divested simultaneously or separately.

50. Why did Modi stay away from Palestine ?

Why was the Israel visit historic? When Prime Minister Narendra Modi travelled to Israel this month, it was hailed as the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister there since the creation of Israel and India’s independence in 1947. It was also notable as he became the first senior Indian leader not to visit Palestinian areas or meet with Palestinian officials during the visit, or even mention Palestine publicly, overturning the primacy their cause has received from India over the past seven decades. In the only official reference to the conflict, the joint statement issued during Mr. Modi’s visit merely referred to the “Israel-Palestinian peace process,” not speaking of the two-state solution that India officially supports.

Why drop the trip to Palestine? For the Israeli side, the visit from the Indian Prime Minister was in itself a major diplomatic victory as India was one of the first countries to recognise the state of Palestine in 1988. Given India’s consistent support to the recognition of Palestine, Mr. Modi’s visit signified even more than the visit of a close ally, like the U.S., and its importance was underscored in the way Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dropped all plans for the three days Mr. Modi was in Israel. The significance of dropping Palestine from the visit wasn’t lost on the Israeli media either, which pointed out that even U.S. President Trump had visited Palestinian territory during his visit in May. When asked, Indian officials said the Prime Minister’s decision came from a desire to “de- hyphenate” relations with Israel and Palestine.

What will be the fallout? India has many areas of cooperation with Israel, which could grow much further if India drops its “political baggage” of the past, even if that involves losing some leverage on the Palestinian side. For their part, Palestinian officials have been muted, with President Mahmoud Abbas’s diplomatic adviser Majdi Elkhaldi saying they hope the visit wouldn’t come “at the expense” of the ties with Palestine.

What is the message? The Modi government is not unaware of what the shift could mean, and in a carefully coordinated campaign that began in 2015, the Prime Minister set out to woo all the countries in the region that could have looked askance at India’s shift away from traditional support to Palestine, including Iran, Israel’s chief

rival. In May this year, he invited Mr. Abbas and gave him a warm welcome in New Delhi. Finally, the government chose dates for the Israel visit when the Palestinian leadership could definitely not host Mr. Modi, given that Mr. Abbas would be away on foreign visits. Many foreign policy analysts also see Mr. Modi’s visit as the ending of India’s ‘non-aligned movement (NAM)’ stance that the NDA government has made a decided shift from, underlined by his decision not to attend the NAM summit in Venezuela last year. The decision to drop Palestine from his itinerary may have historical underpinnings for the BJP-led government as well, as the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) has long proposed closer links between Israel and India. Hindu Mahasabha president Veer Savarkar broke with Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru by supporting the right of “Jews to their homeland” in Israel, as did the then RSS chief Golwalkar.

What are the ties now? In modern times, and especially since India established full diplomatic ties with Israel in 1992, the links between the two countries have run a steadily increasing course of engagement, and Israel is now one of India’s top most defence suppliers, while India is Israel’s tenth biggest trading partner. What’s more, while most Indians would baulk at comparisons between Kashmir and Palestine, they see a role for cooperation in counter-terrorism, something Israeli forces are acclaimed for, while young Indian students increasingly seek ties with Israel on technology, start-ups and innovations. It is for all these reasons and more that Mr. Modi and the government decided to forge India’s relationship with Israel in exclusion of its previous position on the centrality of the Palestinian question.

51. Emerging infectious diseases, One Health and India

‘One Health’ promotes the realisation that the health of humans, animals and the environment are linked to each other In a landmark study in 2008, Kate Jones and colleagues at the Zoological Society of London analysed emerging infectious disease (EID) events across the globe between 1940 and 2004. They showed these to be non-randomly distributed, dominated by zoonoses (diseases which can be transmitted from animals to humans) from wildlife and dependent upon socioeconomic and environmental factors. While a majority of the 1,500 pathogens known to infect humans came from animals and an estimated 320,000 viruses can infect mammals, it is unclear which of these can jump from animals into humans and cause disease? Are we at a greater risk from apes, which share our genes, or rodents, which share our habitats? Two recent studies have addressed this.

Olival and collaborators writing recently in the journal Nature, analysed associations between 754 mammals and 586 viruses to understand what determines viral richness, diversity and zoonotic potential. Bats were found to harbour the highest numbers of zoonotic viruses and are also a major reservoir for coronaviruses. These include the SARS virus that emerged in China in 2002, spread to 27 countries and killed 774 people and the MERS coronavirus that caused 640 deaths. Anthony and others studied coronavirus diversity in thousands of bats, rodents and monkeys from 20 countries in Central Africa, Latin America and Asia, previously identified as zoonoses ‘hotspots’. Nearly 10% of bats had coronaviruses, the diversity being highest in locations with multiple bat species, such as the Amazon rainforest. India also has an incredibly diverse bat population with 117 species and 100 sub-species, but we know little about the viruses in Indian bats and their disease potential. Pathogen hotspot The Indian subcontinent is a ‘hotspot’ for zoonotic, drug-resistant and vector- borne pathogens. But we know little about the key threats. Poor domestic research and lack of international collaborations in this area, the latter driven by restrictive policies on sharing clinical and research materials, are responsible. Prof. Ian Lipkin at Columbia University, an expert on novel pathogens, has tried to work with India for many years. “Sample access is challenging,” he says. “I'm eager to help [provided] the logistics can be sorted. Let’s focus on technology transfer in emerging infectious diseases. Global public health and the people of India deserve our best efforts.” The transmission of infectious disease requires contact, the probability increasing with population density. With 1.34 billion people, 512 million livestock and 729 million poultry, the density and rates of human–animal, animal–animal and human–human contacts are high. These increase the potential for the emergence, circulation and sustenance of new pathogens. India has also lost about 14,000 sq km of forests over 30 years. Deforestation brings wildlife into direct contact with humans and domesticated animals, increasing the risk of zoonoses. It also alters weather patterns, indirectly and unpredictably affecting zoonoses. Missed opportunity India presents a poor picture of One Health. There are 460 medical colleges and 46 veterinary colleges in India, but most do little or no research. The governance structure and inter-sectorial coordination is also problematic, with human, animal and environmental health controlled by different ministries, with little cross-talk. India’s National Health Policy approved recently is also a missed opportunity. It fails to even mention “zoonoses” and “emerging infectious diseases,” let alone break the silos or enable work in key EID areas.

However, as seen during the 2006 Bird Flu outbreak, various sectors in India are capable of working together. The need is to move from being reactive to proactively understanding zoonotic pathogens before they cause human disease. This will require preparedness and policy inputs. An inter-ministerial task force should prepare a policy framework that enables preparedness by strengthening inter-sectorial research on zoonoses and health systems. Such research makes economic and political sense. Discovering the entire viral diversity is estimated to cost $6.4 billion. The cost of the 2002 SARS outbreak is pegged at $54 billion and a severe flu pandemic could cost about $3 trillion or 5% of the world economy. Further, a new disease emerging in any part of the world is a global threat. If India aspires to be a world leader, it cannot afford to ignore its responsibility towards global health. If India can pledge and successfully implement nuclear non-proliferation, can it remain a potential threat for disease proliferation?

52. Mobilising a health revolution

On how the mHealth application strengthens TB detection and referrals It is no longer in the realm of contest if mobile health technologies are beneficial to health delivery and monitoring systems across the globe. With a rapidly expanding mobile user base and the availability of affordable data packages, mobile technology, it is clear, has come to stay in the health-care segment. Health-care professionals, who do harness technology, have continued to do so simply because of the enormous benefits they confer, not only to the process and delivery of health care itself but also for patients and their relatives. From using mobile phones to facilitate retinal scans and even test one’s blood pressure — with or without accessories, from remote locations beamed on to the high-resolution screens in tertiary care centres — to using mobile phone cameras to videograph surgeries, using the mobile phone for health behaviour change communication, and the humble not-so-smart phone to merely text in vital public health information used by literally the last link in the public health pyramid, mHealth has come to stay. Aiding the TB fight More recently, researchers have tried to use mHealth as a battering ram in the hope of overcoming what is acknowledged as an intractable area of public health in India — tuberculosis case referrals. In India, statistics show that tuberculosis remains a major public health problem accounting for 23% of the global TB burden, and worse still, has a truculent hurdle in terms of reportage of cases. S. Chandha, A. Trivedi and K. Sagili of the International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease and S.B. Nagaraja say that mHealth

technology has been highly effective in trying to address these concerns and increased both public and private health-care provider accountability to patients. Despite efforts by the Revised National TB Control Programme (RNTCP), India has up to a third of the estimated three million TB cases that remain unnotified worldwide, they record in a paper in the June edition of Public Health Action . A project in Jharkhand A mobile health (mHealth) technology-based application was developed to help rural health-care providers (RHCPs) identify and refer presumptive TB patients to the nearest microscopy centre for sputum examination using mobile applications on their smartphones. The project was implemented in the tribal population of Khunti district, Jharkhand. Thirty of 171 rural health-care providers were trained to use an application to identify and refer patients with symptoms of TB. Of the 194 TB cases diagnosed, those using the app contributed 127 cases. The RHCPs installed the patient information management app, ‘ComCare’, on their phones. Any person believed to show symptoms of TB is usually referred to a microscopy centre, but seldom is there follow-up with the patient. In addition to connecting the RHCP and labs virtually, the app was also configured to send a reminder to the patient if he or she failed to visit the microscopy centre within seven days of referral, besides providing counselling messages to the patient. As a result, in addition to enhancing the number of referrals, it also reduced the time taken for diagnosis and treatment initiation. RHCPs using the technology referred nearly nine times more presumptive TB cases than other RHCPs. Diagnosis and treatment initiation via the app were eight to nine times more rapid than when it was not used, leading the authors to suggest that innovative mHealth use has the potential for replication across the country, specifically to fast-track the progress made in TB case detection and treatment.

53. No substitute for mother’s milk

As stunting and underweight children abound, India still faces the challenge of encouraging breastfeeding One of the first things a newborn baby does is latch on to the mother’s breast for milk. It’s a mammalian instinct we are born with — after all, breast milk is the best source of nutrition for a baby. In 2014, a study on monkeys by Katie Hinde, an assistant professor of human evolutionary biology at Harvard University, found that the composition of early

milk could impact the temperament of the infant: besides providing the baby with nutrients like protein, sugar, calcium, and immunity, a hormone present in milk, cortisol, profoundly effects how babies develop. In fact, marsupials such as kangaroos can even produce milk of different protein and fat composition to be had by the younger joey (baby kangaroo) and its older offspring from separate teats. Yet, the composition of human milk, or how it is both food and medicine tailor-made to meet the needs of the baby, remains a mystery.

Breastfeeding them young While scientists grapple to understand the complexity of human milk, policymakers in India are grappling with something much more elementary: the need to encourage breastfeeding among new mothers. Currently, 38% of children are stunted and 35.7% are underweight in India. Experts maintain that inappropriate complementary feeding practices are having a significant impact on the nutritional status of children. “Most people coming to us tend to have all the information about breast milk. Despite that, we still see that rates of breastfeeding are going down in higher socio-economic group. This is partly because they can afford to buy alternative feeds and partly because most people don’t understand why it is important to breastfeed… we’ve seen mothers who consider breast milk to be the same as any other type of milk!” says Dr. Raghuram Mallaiah, director, neonatology at Fortis La Femme, which runs the not-for-profit Breastmilk Foundation in New Delhi. When exclusively breastfed, healthy infants double their birth weight by six months of age and triple it by 12 months. “Nutrient requirement is much higher during 0-6 months. Infants should be exclusively breastfed for the first six months to achieve optimal growth, development and health. Thereafter, to meet their evolving nutritional requirements, infants should receive nutritionally adequate and safe complementary foods, while continuing to be breastfed for up to two years or beyond,” says Dr. Nandan Joshi, head of nutrition science and medical affairs at Danone India, that has given three human milk analysers to various neonatal care centres to facilitate research. The Rapid Survey on Children (Ministry of Women and Child Development, 2015) shows that only 45% infants are now being breastfed within an hour of birth in India and just 65% are being exclusively breastfed as per World Health Organization recommendations. Further, the NFHS 4 (National Family Health Survey) data reveal that only 42.7% of children received complementary foods at the age of 6-8 months while only 9.6% children received an adequate diet. Experts say ‘adequate diet’ for a baby of 6-8 months should involved four or more of the following food groups — grains; dairy products; meat; eggs; vitamin A-rich fruits and vegetables.

Increasing awareness “The awareness about breast milk and early nutrition is poor among new mothers. We still see patients who don’t give colostrum to the baby,” says Dr. Mallaiah. Colostrum is a thick milky fluid that comes from the breast soon after giving birth. This is extremely easy to digest, and is therefore the perfect first food for the baby. It has a high concentration of nutrition and has a laxative effect on the baby, helping him pass his early stools, which aids in the excretion of excess bilirubin and helps prevent jaundice. The India Newborn Action Plan, developed by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare in 2014, is targeting a 75% rate of initiation of breastfeeding within an hour of birth by 2017 and 90% by 2025. To achieve these rates, there is a need understand the sophistication of human milk, and enable new mothers to make an informed choice about breastfeeding. “This is why we are studying human milk. Analysing composition helps in targeted fortification of mother’s milk, and also helps give appropriate dietary advice to mothers to improve milk quality,” says Dr. Nandan Joshi.

54. A setback for public health? A recent judgment in a vaccine compensation case in Europe has set alarm bells ringing globally. The case involved a French national, known as “J.W” in court documents, who had developed multiple sclerosis (MS) a year after he had been vaccinated against hepatitis B in 1998. J.W had been vaccinated with the hepatitis B vaccine between the end of 1998 and mid-1999. According to the court documents, in August 1999, J.W developed symptoms of MS, an autoimmune disorder in which the body’s immune system attacks its own tissues. In 2006, he sued pharmaceutical company Sanofi Pasteur, which had made the vaccine, claiming that it had caused the illness. He died in 2011. Given a lack of scientific consensus over the safety profile of the vaccine, the European Union (EU) court has allowed circumstantial evidence to determine the cause. The judgment has got the global public health community worried as it may set a precedent for similar cases.

Why vaccines are crucial Vaccines are among the most effective public health interventions that save an estimated 2.5 million lives each year. However, they can have side effects, including serious ones, in a small proportion of people. Most of these are minor, from mild fever, headache or soreness which resolve quickly. The benefits far outweigh the risks. The use of the hepatitis B vaccine for example, highlighted in the EU case, has led to a significant decrease in disease levels in many countries. Within 10

years of its introduction, the U.S. reported an 80% fall in the incidence of all acute hepatitis B infections; Taiwan recorded a 50% drop in liver cancers among children. Several studies have also investigated the link between the vaccine and multiple sclerosis. While some experts are sceptical, a majority believe the vaccine to be safe. The lack of consensus does not indicate a lack of safety. All reported side effects of vaccines need to be evaluated scientifically. Besides, the onset of disease after vaccination is not sufficient to attribute the cause. Most countries have now established effective vaccine pharmacovigilance programmes. India’s adverse events following immunization (AEFI) surveillance programme, for example, has recorded a nearly 90% success rate in assessing AEFI cases using global protocols set by the World Health Organisation (WHO). It has helped India to win similar legal battles against pentavalent vaccine use in 2013, following AEFIs. Rapid investigations were carried out and the vaccine got a clean chit from the country’s highest scientific body, the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (NTAGI), which was accepted by the Indian court. This helped the country to continue using the life-saving vaccine, protecting children against childhood killers such as bacterial meningitis and pneumonia.

For the larger good Public health interventions must be guided by such scientific panels, weighing the pros and cons for the larger public good. Therefore, the EU court verdict is worrying. Although it may not be generalised, it may still sow the seeds of doubt about proven vaccines and potentially put millions of lives at risk. Hesitancy over vaccine use could cause a rise in vaccine-preventable diseases and lead to outbreaks of deadly infections such as diphtheria and whooping cough. Measles outbreaks have been reported recently in Europe and previously in the U.K. following rumours of a vaccine-autism link. The need of the hour is to ensure effective surveillance, compensation for those affected and to promote public confidence in vaccines, without which we would be foregoing the most remarkable health advances so far.

55. Wheels within wheels

Unveiling the Pakistan-U.S. betrayal that undermined Rajiv Gandhi’s bid to end the ‘unending war’ in Afghanistan This is a tragic tale of misunderstanding leading to betrayal, played against the background of a well-intentioned, highly-reputed, professional American diplomat, personally selected for the key, high-profile New Delhi posting by the then president of the United States, Ronald Reagan, being officially certified as ‘mentally deranged’ to cover up the deceit that led to a serious erosion in relations between the country the Ambassador, John Gunther Dean, represented and the country to which he was accredited. The author, Kallol

Bhattacherjee, as sutradhar, with never-before access to surviving principal participants and hitherto unclassified key diplomatic papers, seeks to unravel this tangled web. The misunderstanding begins with a wholly mistaken ‘assessment’ by the American Embassy in New Delhi of a virtually unknown young man, Rajiv Gandhi, just turned 40, becoming the prime minister of India on the very evening of the morning his mother, the previous prime minister, was assassinated, and then democratically legitimising his dynastic succession by an unprecedented victory at the polls that gave him an unassailable three- quarters majority in the Lok Sabha. The U.S. gameplan Relieved that this might spell the end of what the Americans had always regarded as the eccentrically independent but pro-Soviet line that India had followed over the previous four decades, and misled too by an interview the new prime minister’s brother, the late Sanjay Gandhi, had given indicating a dramatic break with the previous socialist and non-aligned policies of the country, the American Embassy reinforced the aching desire of the White House to see this ‘Westernised’ PM, ‘returned-from-the-U.K.’, married to an Italian, with an occasional fancy for European cuisine and fashionable brands, build a new close relationship with White House and the State Department. In particular, it was hoped the new Prime Minister’s ardent espousal of what Harold Wilson years earlier had called the ‘white heat of technology’ would enable the U.S. to leverage Rajiv Gandhi’s much-publicised emphasis on India’s need for the highest of high-end technology—available only from the U.S., much more than from its traditional enemy in the Cold War, the Soviet Union—to pursue American aims in global affairs, beginning with Afghanistan, in turmoil in India’s immediate neighbourhood. In fairness to the U.S. mission, it must quickly be added that this misreading of Rajiv Gandhi was pretty widespread within and without the country. Soon after joining the PMO, I had seen the puzzled look on Rajiv Gandhi’s face when a school friend of his, Dhruv Sawhney, serving then as chairman of CII, had welcomed him as a friend of ‘India Inc’ and his bemused expression when an interviewer from TheEconomist sought to quiz him on whether he subscribed to Reagan’s ‘supply-side economics’. Rajiv Gandhi was a reformer and an impassioned nationalist, certainly nobody’s cat’s-paw. The Russia angle By dying within weeks of Rajiv Gandhi’s electoral victory, Chernenko offered him the opportunity to strike up an initial acquaintance with Gorbachev. The world, and the Americans, noted the warmth of Gorbachev’s pull-aside conversation with Rajiv Gandhi at the funeral, contrasting pointedly with the virtual brush-off given to General Zia. There followed Rajiv Gandhi’s first official visit abroad—several days all around the Soviet Union—during which a

strong rapport was established between the two young leaders of a time-tested relationship. Reagan saw in this an opportunity—perhaps even a golden opportunity—to get Rajiv Gandhi to nudge the reformist Gorbachev into setting a definitive date for a Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan (thus giving the U.S. sweet revenge for their own humiliating withdrawal from Vietnam). Four years earlier, when Brezhnev had begged Indira Gandhi to show him the way out of Afghanistan, she had tartly ticked him off, “By the same way you went in.” Soon after, in February 1980, Brezhnev set ‘withdrawal’ as the Soviet goal, but little or no progress had been made in setting a deadline, or determining the conditions, for terminating its push into Afghanistan. Reagan thought Rajiv Gandhi might be drawn from the sidelines into pro-actively pushing Gorbachev to fix a deadline for getting the hell out (and, incidentally crowning Reagan with a huge win against the ‘Evil Empire’). While emphasising his mother’s policy of non-interference in Afghanistan’s internal affairs and the key need to allow the Afghans to settle their own differences through a government of national unity, Rajiv Gandhi agreed to play this intermediary role and immediately rushed off the then foreign secretary, Romesh Bhandari, from Washington to Moscow. Reagan sweetened the deal with a large package of hi-tech goodies. Dean found himself envoy at the start of this honeymoon. Bhattacherjee, with able assistance on the inside track from Ambassador Dean and Rajiv’s trusted foreign and intelligence aide, Ronen (‘all cloak and perhaps a dagger’) Sen, details the convening of a series of conferences in Geneva that led eventually to a solemn multilateral agreement involving the U.S., then U.S.S.R., Pakistan, and Afghan players, with India in a facilitating role, committing Gorbachev to a withdrawal schedule in exchange for a U.S. commitment to stop arms supplies through Pakistan to the Mujahideen and the forging of a government of national unity in Afghanistan under Najibullah. India also expected Reagan to terminate U.S. military aid to Pakistan given overt evidence of Pakistan’s race to the bomb, indeed, an open A.Q. Khan boast of Pakistan already having the bomb. Reagan reneged on all this in the triumphalism of his victory. Relations with Rajiv Gandhi’s India plummeted. Dean felt betrayed. He was withdrawn faster than US troops from Afghanistan. Gen Zia was killed in a mysterious air-crash. The ‘unending war’ continues. What remains is Ronen Sen’s foreword, arguably the best 2000-word dissertation on India’s foreign policy ever penned.

56. Fertilizer sector sees tremendous future

Centre, PSUs investing more than ₹₹₹50,000 crore to revive closed plants: report The Indian fertilizer sector has ‘tremendous’ growth potential in the coming years, CARE Ratings has said. Fertilizer production in India is growing at a compounded annual growth rate of 4% from FY13 onwards and the agency has estimated that production touch 460-470 LMT (Lakh Metric Tonnes) by 2020. This compares with production of 413.24 LMT in FY17.

‘Eliminating imports’ “The Make in India initiative is encouraging the production of fertilizers within the country to an extent the government wants to eliminate the imports of urea by 2021 and make India self-sufficient,” CARE Ratings research analyst Urvisha H. Jagasheth and chief economist Madan Sabnavis said in a report. Besides, the overall domestic output of fertilisers has been going up for the past three years and imports are falling. “The Government has been very proactive by introducing reforms time to time to help production pick up pace as in the case of the New Urea Policy, where the government is incentivising production beyond reassessed capacity,” the report said. CARE Ratings said the Centre, along with PSUs in the coal and oil sectors, were jointly investing more than ₹50,000 crore to revive closed fertilizer plants and setting up gas pipelines that would make India self-sufficient in urea. The Centre has cleared outstanding subsidies which were about ₹35,000 in FY16 and that has now come down to ₹20,000 crore in the last fiscal. To achieve sustained agricultural growth there would be requirement to improve productivity, diversify production towards high value agriculture, the report said. Raising productivity requires large investments in Agri-R&D, irrigation and fertilisers and therefore it throws huge opportunities to the fertiliser sector, it said. “This measure could help in promoting a balanced use of fertilizes in the coming years. This would improve sales of DAP and other Complex fertilisers,” it said. CARE Ratings said the timely outgo of the subsidy will ensure the interest coverage of the fertiliser companies to reduce considerably which will further revive their profits. DBT will also help in reducing the working capital pressures of these companies, it said. The recent farm loan waivers approved in U.P., Maharashtra, Karnataka and Punjab is expected to provide financial relief to the farmers and this could also have a positive effect on the fertiliser sector, the report said. IMD has also predicted a normal monsoon for this fiscal year hence it will be beneficial for the fertiliser sector, the report added.

57. Merger will give us the reach of a bank, says Shriram group founder R. Thyagarajan

‘Our speciality lies in using synergies among businesses to enhance value’ says the group’s patriarch Even as Chennai-based Shriram group is gearing up for a bigger play in the Indian corporate world with its proposal to merge with IDFC Bank, its founder R. Thyagarajan (known as RT, to many) gets candid on many issues in this free- wheeling interview.

Why did you embark on this merger? We are very good in deposit mobilisation. But we don’t have the reach of a bank. So, we are not able to give a whole range of products which a bank is able to provide. Even with all these constraints, we were able to create a deposit base of ₹15,000 - 20,000 crore.

All your financial services firms are doing well. Why do you wish to fix something that’s not broken? We are not fixing anything. Why did we start general insurance business with Sanlam? We were doing an excellent job of servicing both our depositors and truck operators. Where was the need to get involved with the general insurance? Our truck operators today have an advantage because we were delivering general insurance products to them. As against a one to one-and-a-half year wait for getting their claims settled, today they get them settled in 40 days. That means an enhancement of the claim amount by 30%-40% since he gets it earlier. He borrows money at 24%, and now saves interest on that. Claims processing costs him five to six thousand rupees. We have eliminated all that. We make a profit by doing insurance with them. He gains enormously by dealing with us rather than with some others.

Could you have done it without Sanlam? We could have done it with anybody. It is designed for the Indian market. The services are designed for truck operators. Sanlam did not have much of a role except appreciate and motivate.

Is that what you expect from IDFC? Rajiv Lall and others in IDFC are banking specialists. They know more about banking and RBI regulations. We [Shriram] are participating in banking. We

are not going to run a bank. We will bring our experience and perceptions of what the markets and our customers want.

Were you not opposed to converting your NBFC into banking? I was never opposed to doing anything. I always said that it would not be possible for us to conform to the RBI norms and start a bank. We are not opposed to getting into any business for that matter. How did we get into general and life insurance when we had no background? Only I had the experience, and not the whole team. We did not take people from the general insurance industry at all.

Your not being a bank - does it affect your business? Our customers will get more advantages by our being in banking. If we are not in banking, our customers will be benefiting less. If we are in banking, our customer will put his money in a savings account. He may go for a credit card. All these facilities we can offer to him. These we can’t do today. He will be the beneficiary. Since he is a beneficiary, incidentally, we will also benefit. If you look at general and life insurance, it is more and more accepted by the trucking community. Today, we have over 20,000 customers from the trucker community. People have realised the advantage of going in for life insurance. We don’t force them to go in for life insurance.

Popular perception is that ‘Shriram is RT and RT is Shriram’. What will happen now? In India, there are 20 lakh truck operators. I would say only 100 people know RT. The rest don’t know me. Similarly for depositors. About 90 to 95% of them won’t know who RT is. Today, I don’t have a single share of the Shriram group companies.

Is it not true that you grew the group? No. 60, 000 people did that. Starting with 100, it has grown to 60,000. All of them have influenced the growth of the organisation. It is not a one-man organisation.

But 60,000 people did not give direction to the group. Are you being modest? I am not a hypocrite. If modesty is practised for the sake of it, you are cheating the people around you. You should be what you are. You don’t try to be a modest person. You are what you are.

Can 60,000 people give direction to the group? Following and implementation are as vital as giving a direction. When you talk of giving direction, quite a few participated in it . It can’t be one individual

creating an enterprise. Not even a CEO. It is always a team. One man cannot create an organisation. One man may be good enough to assemble a team. Sometime, the team automatically evolves.

Bank of Madura lost its identity on merging with ICICI Bank. Will Shriram too experience t his? IDFC Bank is a very young organisation. It does not have a legacy. It has not developed a rigid culture. Shriram group has a culture. So, it is very likely that this Shriram culture will influence the growth and development of IDFC. They don’t come with a pre-conceived notion as to how to run a bank. And, they don’t have a set of people with a culture which directs how it will go in the future. Shriram has, however. So, Shriram’s influence will be there. It is not that Shriram people will be running it.

Why is it then called IDFC-Shriram and not the other way round? Alphabetically, I comes before S. It is a merger and not a takeover of one by the other. Therefore, we are equals. We treat each other with the respect each commands.

There is a charge that the Shriram group has just been gifted away to people from north? This question will be asked only by people in Tamil Nadu. It is an Indian organisation, and a human organisation.

Isn’t it like somebody giving away his beautiful daughter to someone who is yet to prove himself? If this argument is to be accepted, our beautiful bride will remain unmarried. You have to take a chance. That is all. Every decision is about taking a chance. Having been around for many years, we have acquired some amount of wisdom as we made some mistakes in the past. We have learnt from mistakes, and, therefore, we have become wiser. So, our decision going wrong will have lesser probability.

Do you think the merged entity could command the trust that Shriram has managed to elicit? When we started, there was none. We built the trust. It has been built over the last 40 years. It did not happen overnight. A similar thing will happen here. Our track record shows by and large we do things right. We will do this also the right way.

How critical is a banking licence to you? It is not as if we were dying to be a bank. We always felt that our customers will benefit more with a banking instrument. We are looking at what is good for

our customers. He can now do many things ... may do money transfer ... he can do that easily now. What more we can do with banking as an instrument? In this, we will be guided by IDFC.

IDFC has just over two years’ experience as a bank. Why do you want to ally with them? For one, you don’t have baggage while creating an organisation together. The disadvantage is that there is not too much of an expertise and experience. How do we take advantage of the strengths and keep the weaknesses away? That is what we should bring together. The way we are working with Ajay Piramal, Sanlam and earlier with Telco and Ashok Leyland ... in all our partnerships ... there were certain advantages and disadvantages. Ashok Leyland put two of their important directors on our board. They were actively involved. Tatas put two of their men on our board because they put 15% equity. We are used to partnering with organisations. We have been successful in building on the strength they brought in and avoiding their weaknesses. We have successfully managed it in four partnerships before.

Will the chit business remain independent? An enterprise belongs to the community. Shriram Transport may not belong to the Shriram team or employees. Owning a share does not mean that you are owning the company. It is owned by the community. Ownership is not our obsession.

What about the non-financial firms in the group? Ten years ago we felt that we were running our financial services business very profitably. We, at least I, felt that we have a moral responsibility to the community to support entrepreneurship of a difficult kind. We realized that creating an industry and running them successfully is much more difficult than what we have accomplished in financial services business. So, we started investing and supporting entrepreneurship in other areas. At some point of time, we decided that it should be separated from financial services because the financial services business was looking for different kinds of partners across the world and all of them were comfortable in dealing only with a pure financial services company and not with a group which has got different interests. So, Sanlam is clear that they want to be with Shriram only in insurance business. Hence, we took a decision to separate the business. Our commitment to the community in terms of supporting entrepreneurs remains. So, we transferred money. We said we would transfer about 25% of the wealth created and then remain hands off. Professionals will run it. ownership will be with those people. We have no ownership there. We came out of it totally. Our

non-financial activity cannot be considered as Shriram group in that sense. It is like partition in your family.

Doesn’t Shriram Capital have any ownership in these? Nothing at all. We don’t give any guarantees to banks. Lending money as a proposition with security we may do. There is no equity. A holding company is created subsequently to put all of them under one umbrella. Just financial services came under Shriram Capital.The chit business is outside all these. It remains independent, owned by Shriram Trust. Bharat Re was promoted by Shriram Capital to strengthen our general insurance business. Having achieved that to some extent, we are taking it out of Shriram Capital. It will not have more than 15% capital in it. It will not be a part of the Shriram group any more. The next phase of growth for Bharat Re is an independent ownership

How will the insurance business benefit from the merger? As and when we extend our customer acquisition through the banking operation, every new customer we are looking at will be able to take advantage of all the services we offer. You make the customer acquisition a faster process.

Are insurance partners comfortable with the merger idea? Very much. They are very enthusiastic about it.

What about other partners in Shriram Capital? TPG is very enthusiastic. Sanlam is happy. Ajay Piramal too is happy.

What is your responsibility in this context? I am 80 and already got out five years ago. I am a consultant and advisor pre- dominantly in the area of insurance. In the lending business, I am not. If the group does very well, I will not benefit even by a single paisa. If they do badly, I won’t lose even a paisa. In running an enterprise, I don’t believe in ownership. I run it on behalf of the community.

Is everybody on board on the merger? Every one is on board. In any case, it is only a decision to talk on the concept. A long path needs to be travelled.

Has the merger talk created confusion? Inside the organisation, there is no confusion. Nothing is going to change for the next one-and-a-half years. So, everybody is pursuing whatever they are pursuing.

Is there no dissenting voice? Nothing to dissent because we have not taken a decision.

There is a perception that the merger is happening because of the inability to bring in a succession plan. What do you have to say? We have been having a series of succession plans ... one becoming better than the other at every stage. First we had Arun Duggal coming in as chairman. We felt the better solution from a long-term perspective would be to bring in Ajay Piramal. Now we believe a merger with IDFC is still a better solution. A series of solutions to the problem of succession has taken place ... each one is better than the previous one. There was nothing wrong with the previous one. It was fine but a better option has come up.

What is the trigger of the IDFC merger? Somebody takes the initiative and make a suggestion.

Who made the suggestion? An investment banker.

Don’t you think that than an investment banker has an uncanny ability to kill the legacy? Simply saying legacy is no good. It is like the caste system. We should abolish it. For every part of the culture, you can say legacy. There is a negative part to culture also. Legacy is not great by itself. You must make it better and better.

Investment bankers derive satisfaction by disruption... His role will be disruption. Will that benefit the organisation or not? That is rather left to people who are running the organisation. If they have the wisdom, they will take the opportunity of disruption to make the organisation better.

Is this disruption good? It is extremely good. It is a new opportunity. Let us look at this merger as a synergy rather than incompatibility. We are not aiming at compatibility. We want to create an enterprise which will thrive on creating synergies. Consistency is not my virtue. As and when I see new things, I change.

What is that one thing you will regret? I don’t regret anything. I learn lessons. You can’t undo the past. All of us suffer from a feeling of nostalgia. Any thing changes, we are okay.

Is the transport business going to be a separate company? It can’t merge with IDFC. The bank is small and the transport business is very large. It has various regulatory obligations. So, why undertake [the merger] now?

You always talked about business as a means of servicing the society. Will these new set of people view it the same way? Having moved with Ajay Piramal for the last few years, I am convinced that he looks at the prosperity for his company because it is prosperity for the community. The focus is not prosperity for himself. He believes business is your way of doing social service. . There is nothing wrong in it. This philosophy is not my monopoly. I am not more socially committed than Ajay Piramal or Rajiv Lall.

Are you giving away your daughter to the right person? You are trying to create synergies between businesses. You are not handing over anything to anybody else. You are bringing a few organisations together. The best way to create more wealth to community is to create synergies.

Who will be running the bank? It is not a question of who. All of us will run it. Ajay Piramal, Sanlam, IDFC ... all of us will be running it because all of us have stakes.

Are you a democratic disruptionist? If you like change, you call it innovation. If you don’t, you call it disruption. I will call it innovation. Disruption and innovation are one at the same.

Is there a downside risk to the merger? I don’t see anything wrong. In the worst case scenario, you allow the bank to run on its own and we run our own. That is not good. You are not creating synergy then.

How have the leading lights in the group taken to the merger? We will tell them to taste the food when cooking is completed and then come to a judgement if the food is good or bad. By merely looking at the recipe, you don’t come to a conclusion.

58. The past catches up

The SC rightly rules that extra-judicial killings cannot be overlooked owing to lapse of time By ordering an investigation by the Central Bureau of Investigation into more than 80 cases of suspected extra-judicial killings in Manipur, the Supreme Court has reiterated the principle of accountability as an essential part of the rule of law. These cases involved either suspected fake encounters or the use of excessive or retaliatory force. The court has rightly rebuffed an attempt by the government to stall any probe into these deaths on the ground that they were too old to be raked up now. It has taken the view that the killing of a person who was possibly innocent cannot be overlooked owing to mere lapse of time. The state cannot take advantage of its own inaction and scuttle a probe by citing the delay as a reason. Last year, the court had ruled that the armed forces cannot escape investigation for excesses even in places where they enjoy special powers, and that the legal protection provided by the Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, or AFSPA, will have to yield to the principles of human rights. It is surprising that even after this ruling on petitions demanding an inquiry into 1,528 deaths in counter-insurgency operations in Manipur, the Attorney General had argued against the court ordering an investigation into some specific instances. In fact, he had come up with the unpalatable argument that inquiries conducted by the authorities in Manipur were biased in favour of the citizens owing to local pressure and the ground situation. The court stood firm in its assessment, deprecating the suggestion that all inquiries were biased and motivated. The court’s order is yet another reminder that AFSPA has contributed to the climate of impunity in States where it is in force, especially in Manipur, and this may trigger a fresh demand for its repeal. The situation under AFSPA is so hostile to the concept of human rights that in many of these cases there was no inquiry at all. In some instances, the First Information Report was against the victim and not against the alleged perpetrators. It will not be easy for the investigators to get to the bottom of these incidents. It is possible that the special team to be constituted by the CBI Director will find witnesses hard to come by and face difficulties in gathering evidence in many cases. However, that cannot be a reason for denying or putting off a formal criminal investigation as required in law. Justice will be served if there is successful prosecution in at least some cases. Another worrying aspect in the domain of human rights is that the National Human Rights Commission has been reduced to a “toothless tiger”. It is grossly understaffed despite its increasing workload, and many State governments show little respect for its guidelines and instructions. The court’s directive that the Centre take note of the NHRC’s concerns and remedy the situation could not have come a day too soon.

59. A looming threat: on the TB crisis

All children diagnosed with TB must get paediatric fixed-dose combination drugs About 5,500 of over 76,000 children tested in nine Indian cities have been diagnosed with tuberculosis, 9% of them with multi-drug resistant TB (MDR- TB), highlighting the silent spread of the disease. Though the actual prevalence of MDR-TB among children in India is not known, the results from a limited number of children tested in this sample, under the Revised National TB Control Programme, is worrying. According to a 2015 study, of the over 600 children who had tested positive for TB in four cities, about 10% showed resistance to Rifampicin, a first-line drug. Since the incidence of TB among children is a reflection of the prevalence of the disease in the community at large, the high prevalence of both drug-sensitive TB and drug-resistant TB in children from these nine cities is a grim reminder of the failure of the health- care system to diagnose the disease early enough in adults and start them on treatment. Very often, children who test positive for TB have been in close contact with adults with the disease in the same household. With up to a couple of months’ delay in diagnosing the disease being the norm, there is a continuing threat of TB spreading among household contacts and in the larger community. In line with World Health Organisation guidelines, the RNTCP requires all household contacts, particularly children, of a newly diagnosed pulmonary TB patient to be tested and started on treatment if needed. Children below six years of age in the household of a newly diagnosed patient are required to be given the drug Isoniazid as a prophylactic even when they do not have the disease. A proactive approach to testing helps in early and correct diagnosis of all contacts and in cutting the transmission chain. Unfortunately, as several studies have shown, the RNTCP guidelines on contact screening are heeded mostly in the breach. The results from this limited study should now compel the government to take up contact screening more urgently. In 2010, WHO had revised the dosage of certain TB drugs for children. Fixed-dose combination (FDC) drugs that take into account the revised dosages for children were finally made available in late 2015. The FDCs are meant for treating children with drug-susceptible TB and cannot be used to treat children who require second- line drugs or who have MDR-TB. After more than a year’s delay, a few months ago India finally introduced FDCs in six States. The remaining States will be covered by the end of this year. Adherence to treatment will improve, and correct dosage for children weighing less than 25 kg will become easier when child-friendly FDCs become available throughout the country. Using the Xpert molecular diagnostic test to screen children with TB is a positive step and should be welcomed, but all the diagnosed children should be guaranteed paediatric FDCs. It would be unethical to deny them this lifeline.

60. Back to the classroom

Evidence-based policing is gaining credibility by the day — India’s police force must be exposed to it In a recent article in an American newspaper, the doyen among police scholars, Prof. David Bayley, expressed his anguish over what he considered to be a crisis in U.S. law enforcement. In his view this was caused mainly by three factors: race, police training and guns. There was an undeniable need for reform, but the prospects for this happening were bleak because of a multitude of factors, including the size of police forces, lack of political and community support. The Indian police is exactly in the same situation. People are dissatisfied with the quality of service they are getting from the grass roots. They are frustrated with the same old alibi trotted out by the police: political interference. Do rudimentary courtesy to the public at a police station, registration of an FIR when a complaint is received, and acting against harassment of women in public spaces all need political direction? Not at all. The system therefore needs drastic restructuring, beyond cosmetics, in order to make policing more professional and more acceptable to the common man. Look at what other professions have done. In my view, the analogy here should be one with public health service. Despite its many faults, cost being a main drawback, our medical services have improved vastly through sheer professionalism backed by learning from experimentation.

How to professionalise Those propounding evidence-based policing, a movement launched more than a decade ago both in the U.S and the U.K., often refer to success in the area of health care to strengthen the case for experiment-based law enforcement. Their plea is unexceptionable, especially in India, where the popular image of the police is not flattering. This is despite some remarkable work done by policemen at the cutting edge level. Notwithstanding some token efforts initiated by a few dynamic IPS officers in the larger cities, there is an overall reluctance to experiment with measures that could transform the police from a traditional outfit into a sleek modern force that is constantly looking for ways to upgrade delivery of its service. A recent international conference organised by the Institute of Criminology at Cambridge University was the occasion for some serious brainstorming on the issue of how to infuse some fresh thinking into the twin problems of maintaining public order and combating conventional crime. In effect, the task was how to make the police shed their slumber and arbitrariness in reacting to field developments and make them acquire a fresh mindset to cope with the dire needs of a society under attack.

On the face of it, the subject may appear cliched. In reality, however, the task of policing the community has become far too complex to permit the smug feeling that throwing increased manpower and use of new technology in themselves would be enough to steady a deteriorating situation. If this were so, policing all over the world would be in clover. The fact is, even in countries that have a strong legacy of clinical public administration, there is increasing disenchantment with the way the police handle major crises. This again leads us to only one question: can things improve with a greater scientific approach, and not necessarily the use of gadgets, to day-to-day police operations? Simply put, policing has acquired many new connotations and a certain immediacy which cannot brook any delay. Terrorism and cyber attacks in particular are heightening the levels of fear of the community. How well have the police responded to this serious challenge to stability?

Stop muddling along Talking to friends in the police across countries and continents, I get the feeling that many police leaders have thrown in the towel and are just muddling along. I may be accused of generalising and being cynical, but the basic truth is that policing has become far too routine and mechanical at a time when there is need for a drastically different response to events. Reactive policing was adequate to a community as long as it had its fundamentals unshaken. We are now living in tumultuous times, where violent crime grips major cities across the globe. How else would you account for the increasing number of homicides in an otherwise placid State such as Tamil Nadu? Here, anyone speaking against a rival political faction or a rival caste group now faces imminent threat. This in a region where there was until recently a fear of the law and an esteem for the police’s capacity to swoop on the offenders in quick time. Now, hired goons rule the day, and the police are afraid of them. Styled as a conference on evidence-based policing (EBP), the gathering of academics and active police leaders at Cambridge endorsed the imperative to fine-tune traditional styles, which placed an emphasis solely on the mechanical use of police resources rather than an intelligent application of available skills. Known as the father of EBP, Prof. Lawrence Sherman, the leading light of the Institute of Criminology, is a relentless crusader, who holds that mindless policing to appease the polity is wasteful and misdirected. He and his fellow scholars are pushing for rigorous experiments on the field and appraising their findings against the realities of the daily fight against crime. In their view, a controlled experiment will throw up any number of facts that could help sharpen police professionalism. They draw from the remarkable progress that medical science has made in recent decades by encouraging bold experiments.

Prediction and prevention There are two areas in which EBP could deliver. These are prediction and prevention. The strategy is one of identifying ‘hot spots’ of crime and spotting problematic individuals in a community. The former task requires an analysis of events which are either crimes by themselves or border on crimes defined by law. There are certain geographic areas in each police jurisdiction which report more incidents than others. EBP goes beyond statistics and pinpoints the time and opportunities presented to a potential offender. As the seminal essay ‘Broken Windows’ carried by the Atlantic magazine several years ago pointed out, where there is public apathy and civic neglect, the prospects of crime are high. Fixing a street light that is not burning for several days, for instance, is an action that could contain crime. EBP studies phenomena such as these and highlights findings that are germane to crime prevention. Similarly, monitoring patterns of behaviour of a class of individuals who had come to the adverse notice of law enforcement is a logical way to predict whether they will again lapse into crime. Despite the unfairness in targeting those who had indulged in anti-social behaviour in the past and keeping a tab on their day-to-day activities, there is an expected benefit of being able to predict future criminal behaviour. It is not as if every convict will go back to crime once set free. Several studies have strengthened the belief that recidivism is not uncommon, and that many future crimes can be foiled by pinpointing who, more than others, could be expected to offend once more. There is a certain inexactitude in this approach that one should learn to live with. These are the fundamentals to EBP, a discipline that is gaining credibility by the day. To dismiss it as pure academic hogwash would be irrational and blind to a fast deteriorating scene marked by high crime. I strongly believe that exposing our police officers to this concept would make them more professional, something that would certainly enhance the Indian police’s image, which is currently dismal.

61. Changing contours of the Darjeeling agitation

It is important to recognise how the current stir has a dynamic different from those of the past The changing contours of the stir for a separate Gorkhaland state that has gripped the hills of Darjeeling, and what is now the fledgling district of Kalimpong, is in striking contrast to previous agitations in the region. This has impacted the very dynamics of popular support for the agitation, the strike now having entered its fifth week. So far the stir has claimed at least seven lives. Having renewed the statehood call, it is now the leadership of a political conglomerate, comprising disparate groups, spearheading the agitation which appears to be under pressure from their foot soldiers to come clean with an action plan without compromising the Gorkhaland demand.

Issue of credibility Fresh in public memory is how many leaders have played the Gorkhaland card for self-aggrandisement. And as if to allay any misgivings over their intent, a “fast-unto-death” programme has been announced by senior leaders, giving a new twist to the turn of events. At stake is their credibility even as the common refrain of the rank and file is that they should not settle for autonomous bodies as was the case in the past. The protracted agitations of 1986-88 had culminated in the setting up of the Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council (DGHC) only to be subsequently wound up and lead to the establishment, in 2012, of the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration (GTA). The GTA, which has survived agitations since its inception, is now tottering. The argument bandied about among the movement’s supporters is that neither lived up to expectations raised in the course of the respective campaigns. Though the sponsors of the agitation publicly vow that there will be no climbdown, the question is whether this is a bargaining counter. It has also been decided that the agitation will continue indefinitely. But what has added to collective anxiety is the ban on Internet services. This move by the authorities, initiated shortly after the strike in mid-June, is purportedly designed to pre-empt those spearheading the agitation from canvassing for public support. This has led to widespread resentment, which is being tapped into by the movement. In the face of such odds, what is discernible is a sense of growing exasperation among the people with the powers that be on outstanding political issues. There are distinct signs of a growing restiveness that find expression whenever processions in support of the Gorkhaland demand have been brought out, with those from surrounding “kamans” and “bastis” (villages) joining ranks with the townspeople. On at least two occasions, children too have been drawn in, and the West Bengal Commission for Protection of Child Rights has taken up issue. As in past agitations, the call for a “boycott” of those declining to participate or supporting the cause looms large. At the political level, there are the fractious relations between the major players: the Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM) and its allies sponsoring the movement, the West Bengal government and the Centre. Whether the GJM will be able to carry forward the ongoing agitation without its momentum waning, as happened in the past, only time will tell. But jettisoning the statehood demand could cost it its support base. As for the State government, a division of West Bengal is not an option as things stand, whoever may be in power. Such are the apparent irreconcilables in a region where the statehood issue seems set, at least for some time to come, to continue being the principal axis around which hill politics revolves.

Sikkim’s stand Sikkim also appears to have positioned itself in the emerging political configuration. Though it has long been clear where the sympathies of Chief Minister Pawan Kumar Chamling lie in the scheme of things, his open support to the Gorkhaland cause by making public a letter dated June 20 to Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh has created ripples, and come as a shot in the arm for the GJM and its partners. Not only has West Bengal’s ruling Trinamool Congress expressed suspicions about the hand of the Bharatiya Janata Party, an electoral ally of the GJM, in the goings-on but it has also alleged that the agitation is being backed by insurgent groups as well as some foreign influences. What makes Mr. Chamling’s announcement intriguing is its timing. His landlocked State’s lifeline to the rest of the country passes through the hills. And like the Darjeeling hills, Sikkim too has begun suffering the fallout, beginning with disruptions in essential supplies. There is also little doubting that the statehood movement enjoys considerable support among the people in Sikkim, particularly the Nepali community. This has prompted political observers to wonder whether the developments are a manifestation of a larger pan-Nepali phenomenon with its own set of dynamics in a geopolitically sensitive region. The hills of north Bengal, Sikkim and Nepal share common borders; the last two share borders with China. Amid the growing unrest and political turmoil, what is clear is that gone are the times of grandstanding by the principal players. Viewing the situation through the wrong end of the telescope, wherever they may be positioned, cannot facilitate any solution to the crisis. The need for a fresh interrogation of the unfolding reality cannot be more urgent.

62. When too much is too little

The issue of food wastage must be fully understood, so that an effective strategy can be drawn up When Prime Minister Narendra Modi brought up the issue of food wastage on his ‘Mann Ki Baat’ programme about two months ago, he endorsed a valid point when he asked people not to waste food. Though he raised an extremely critical issue of national importance, he could also have used the occasion to propose some government-led mechanism to handle it. He was right to an extent when he linked food wastage to people’s behaviour. However, there are wastages which happen in any case due to food’s perishability and the absence of an effective distribution mechanism and legal framework. Looking at the scale of problems, it is wise to frame a comprehensive strategy by combining the efforts of the government and private

sectors and civil society. The government can create a time-bound task force under Niti Aayog, with experts from different sectors, to frame a national policy to tackle this gigantic issue, which can recommend the legal framework to support initiatives to reduce food loss and waste. As a nation, we need to give priority to tackling this issue so that we can handle the social, economic and environmental ill-effects of wastage of food.

One third of food wasted According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), “One third of food produced for human consumption is lost or wasted globally , which amounts to about 1.3 billion tons per year.” It also states: “Food is lost or wasted throughout the supply chain, from initial agricultural production to final household consumption.” The losses, it says, represent “a waste of resources used in production such as land, water, energy and inputs, increasing the green gas emissions in vain”. Food wastage has multiple socio-economic and environmental impacts. In a country like India, not only is food scarce for many poor families, it is a luxury for many others. Though hunger cannot be tackled directly by preventing food wastage, a substantial amount of food that is wasted in our country can feed many hungry people. India ranked 97th among 118 countries in the Global Hunger Index for 2016. About 20 crore people go to bed hungry and 7,000 people die of hunger every day; wastage of food is not less than a social delinquency. According to one estimate, 21 million tonnes of wheat are wasted in India every year. A recent study by the Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, revealed that only 10% of food is covered by cold storage facilities in India. This, coupled with poor supply-chain management, results in significant wastage, both at pre- and post-harvest stages, of cereals, pulses, fruits and vegetables. The wastage of food entails loss of considerable amount of resources in the form of inputs used during production. For example, 25% of fresh water and nearly 300 million barrels of oil used to produce food are ultimately wasted. The increasing wastage also results in land degradation by about 45%, mainly due to deforestation, unsustainable agricultural practices, and excessive groundwater extraction. Wastage results in national economic loss. To put a monetary value to the loss in terms of wastage, India loses ₹58,000 crore every year, to quote The CSR Journal . The energy spent over wasted food results in 3.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide production every year. Decay also leads to harmful emission of other gases in the atmosphere; for instance, decaying of rice produces methane. Food waste emissions have a major impact on climate change and result in greater carbon footprint.

Laws to encourage donation Many countries have legislation providing for global best practices, such as the 1996 Bill Emerson Good Samaritan Act in the U.S., which was intended to encourage donation of food and grocery products that meet quality and labelling standards by protecting the donor and the recipient agency against liability, except in the case of gross negligence and/or intentional misconduct. France has taken a lead by becoming the first country in the world to ban supermarkets from destroying unsold food, forcing them instead to donate it to charities or food banks or send it to the farmers to be used as fertilisers in crop production. In India, there are many civil society, private sector and community initiatives aimed at distributing food among the poor. The government is also committed to securing availability of food grains for two-thirds of the 1.3 billion population, under the National Food Security Act, 2013. While securing food for all or feeding them through such initiatives is important, addressing wastage of food in all forms is equally critical to complete the cycle of food sufficiency and food sustainability. There are initiatives such as India Food Banking Network (IFBN), which is promoting the concept of collaborative consumption with support from the private sector and civil society organisations. Such initiatives, creating networks and channels of distribution between those who have surplus food and those who are in need of them, are necessary. The government needs to do more and should play a larger facilitating role. The Prime Minister’s call to the nation needs to be followed up with further interventions. There is an urgent need to understand the complexity of the problem and then to devise a national-level strategy to combat it so that surplus of food can be turned into an advantage instead of resulting in wastage. Hunger and food wastage are two sides of the coin. The cycle of hunger cannot be broken without channelising the wasted food to help the needy. Without stopping wastage of food, we cannot do justice to millions of hungry people, our economy and the planet.

63. Readers are our mirrors

We invite readers for Open House discussions so that we can look at ourselves in them Last week, a score and five senior journalists and editors from across South Asia were in Kathmandu for two different events. One was on borders and the other was on labour migration. The journalists were from different platforms: print, radio, television and online. But they were curious about the efficacy of news ombudsmen in this region. They wanted to know about The Hindu ’s decade-long experience in having an independent news ombudsman.

A journalist from Sri Lanka, a thorough professional and a friend for nearly three decades, cited my former editor Vinod Mehta’s book, Mr. Editor, How Close Are You to the PM? — which had argued for maintaining an adversarial relationship between those in power and those who are mandated to run news organisations — and posed three main questions and a supplementary one. What is the nature of the relationship between the Editor and the Readers’ Editor? Whose decision is final? Do readers gain from this institutional mechanism? If yes, what do they gain and how?

Editor-ombudsman relationship The answers for the first two questions are self-evident. The equation between the Editor and the Readers’ Editor is neither adversarial nor convivial. In this relationship, the governing code is to respect the remit and not to indulge in overreach, one where the principles of journalism are upheld without undermining the authority of the Editor. Once the perimeter is clearly drawn, the decision-making process becomes clear to all stakeholders. The Editor is the final authority in deciding what to publish. And, in post-publication, the decision of the ombudsman is final and binding. “What readers gain?” is a difficult but unavoidable question. The gains are both tangible and intangible. The obvious tangible gain is that there is a mechanism that enables a visible mending process to correct any errors that happen in this deadline-driven profession and to retain the position of this legacy newspaper as a paper of record. The intangible gains are trust and credibility. An ombudsman is an active listener. In my case, I do not rely only on the mail we receive on a daily basis or on comments that appear below the line for most of our stories to understand the readers. I realise that most readers write only when they strongly approve or disapprove of a particular story. But, the readers do engage with the newspaper as a whole. They are the raison d’être for a newspaper. Their views are nuanced and varied. Very often I receive conflicting and contending views from readers. How does one decide which reader is right? Despite the fact that my livelihood is dependent on written words, I rely on the grand old oral tradition to understand readers. I take poet and storyteller Joseph Bruchac’s words to my heart to do my work: “The image of an oral telling may be caught on paper, film or in digital format, but recordings are not the word shared live. The presence of teller and audience, and the immediacy of the moment are not fully captured by any form of technology. Unlike the insect frozen in amber, a told story is alive. It always changes from one telling to the next depending on the voice and mood of the storyteller, the place of its telling, the response of the audience. The story breathes with the teller’s breath.”

My task is not only to listen to readers but to also convey their opinions with all its textures, layers and complexities to the editorial team. The idea of an Open House between readers and the senior editorial team of this newspaper flows from this unfailing faith in oral tradition. The physical presence of readers amidst the editorial staff becomes a silo-breaker. The fifth Open House is scheduled in Delhi this weekend. The warmth in this dialogue can never be captured by any innovation of Silicon Valley. In his novel Identity , Milan Kundera talked about the need to maintain the wholeness of the self. For him to ensure that the self does not shrink, “memories have to be watered like potted flowers, and the watering calls for regular contact with the witnesses of the past, that is to say with friends.” He wrote: “They are our mirror; our memory; we ask nothing of them but that they polish the mirror from time to time so we can look at ourselves in it.” Readers are our mirrors and we invite them so that we can look at ourselves in them.

64. Cash is not trash

The all-out war on cash transactions is not wise economic policy A public sector bank is the latest to join hands in the war against cash. A report released by the State Bank of India last week states that thanks to demonetisation, India has seen a huge increase in digital payments using cards. If not for demonetisation, it says, the economy would have taken three more years to achieve the level of digitisation that it has since November. The underlying logic is that citizens are somehow irrationally obsessed with the use of cash. and, hence, the enlightened officials in government are duty- bound to wean them off it, even if it requires administering cruel shocks like demonetisation. Note that it is unanimously agreed by experts that a cashless world offers many undeniable benefits. In a world where all, or at least most, transactions are digital, the government would be able to track any transaction. This would help prevent tax evasion, thus increasing tax revenue, and also help in dealing with criminal transactions. What is ignored is the fact that when the government cracks down on a preferred method of transaction among citizens, the result is a net economic loss to the society. After all, it is not some superstition that holds back citizens from using digital cash. Instead, there are often some good economic reasons for them to choose to deal in cash over other forms of money.

Low-value transactions For one, physical cash often offers the easiest and cheapest way to deal in many low-value transactions. It might, for instance, make no economic sense for small businesses to build the infrastructure required for digital payments, or for poor households to pay the price for it. Many businesses and consumers

might automatically adopt digital technology as its costs drop. Forcing them to prematurely adopt technology will only be harmful to their interests. Two, a broad brush has been used to paint all untaxed cash-based economic activity as a crime that needs to be punished, but it should be remembered that cash actually allows several beneficial economic transactions to thrive. In the absence of cash, a lot of these useful activities would be crushed under the weight of harmful government policy. It is no coincidence that many legitimate economic activities get pushed into the underground economy only under draconian regimes. Lastly, it is worth noting that the preference for cash among citizens has traditionally worked against the plans of governments to pursue inflationary policies. In fact, American economist Kenneth Rogoff, a prominent advocate of the war against cash, has spelt out clearly that cash stands in the way of central banks pursuing a negative interest rate policy (NIRP). Simply stated, if citizens are allowed to encash their deposits to escape a situation like NIRP, it would threaten the stability of the banking system. Cash thus acts as a natural check on inflationary government policies. It is no wonder that cash has been turned into an evil zombie, which it is clearly not.

65. Release of GM mustard faces another hurdle Agricultural researchers of NAAS differ over the variety’s suitability and potential in the field Dissent has crept in among agricultural scientists of the National Academy of Agricultural Sciences (NAAS) over the possible release of genetically modified mustard. In May, NAAS President Panjab Singh wrote to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, endorsing DMH-11, a variety of mustard developed by Deepak Pental of Delhi University, a NAAS Fellow, that employs genes from soil bacterium. If approved, it would be the first transgenic edible crop to be grown in Indian fields. The plant had gone through adequate tests and was declared “safe” and passed regulatory muster. The Academy, according to Mr. Singh’s letter, was also cognisant of the “massive negative propaganda” on GM crops by “activists” that was causing “serious damage” to Indian agriculture. The letter preceded a formal resolution by the NAAS, saying Central and State governments should take steps to ensure that DMH-11 is made available in farmer fields this year. ‘Not scientifically valid’ However, P.C. Kesavan, also a Fellow of the NAAS, wrote that he disagreed with this endorsement. “I believe the resolution of the NAAS in its present form is

neither scientifically valid, nor ethical, and therefore not maintainable … I suggest that it be immediately withdrawn…It is deeply disturbing and shocking that Prime Minister Modi is being exhorted to add his weight to the approval of mustard DMH 11 based on false data,” says his letter. Conflict of interest Mr. Kesavan, a senior fellow of the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, said DMH-11 did not perform as well as several other varieties and mustard hybrids and that the Genetic Engineering Appraisal Committee (GEAC), the Environment Ministry body that cleared DMH-11, was riddled by a “conflict of interest.” DMH-11 is a hybrid variety of mustard developed by crossing a traditional variety of mustard, called Varuna, and an East European variety. Mr. Kesavan emphasised that using genetically-modified technology to produce hybrid seed varieties was a “failed experiment” as evidenced by the experience of Bt cotton. Though the latter occupied 95% of India’s acreage, its yields were on the decline since 2006, largely due to insect resistance, and that it nearly tripled the cost of producing cotton between 2006-2013, he argued in his letter, a copy of which was sent to the PM as well. The NAAS — a 625-member body of agricultural scientists — had about 200 scientists in its quorum when it passed a resolution endorsing the GEAC’s decision to clear DMH-11 for commercial field trials.

66. Highest voter turnout ever for presidential election

Modi first to vote in Delhi; polling held in 32 stations across India The presidential election on Monday recorded probably the highest ever turnout of over 99%, with all eligible voters casting their ballots in at least 10 States and one Union Territory. The election was conducted at 32 polling stations, including in Parliament and the State Assemblies. Presidential Election Returning Officer and Lok Sabha Secretary General Anoop Mishra said reports on voting percentages from Andhra Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Manipur and Tripura were yet to be added. Three Members of Parliament — Tapas Paul, Anbumani Ramadoss and Rama Chandra Hansdah — did not vote. DMK chief M. Karunanidhi and Sikkim MLA Sher Bahadur Subedi could not vote for health reasons. Chhedi Paswan, BJP MP from Sasaram in Bihar, could not vote as his election was quashed by the Patna High Court last year. Even though the order has been stayed by the Supreme Court, he does not have voting rights.

As two seats are vacant both in the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha, and one MP did not have the right to vote, a total of 771 MPs were eligible for participating in the election process. In all, 714 of them cast their votes in Parliament, while 42 MPs voted in the West Bengal Assembly. When asked, Mr. Mishra confirmed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was the first MP to reach the polling station and cast his vote in Parliament.

Ballot boxes reach Delhi While ballot boxes from nine State Assemblies reached the national capital by Monday evening, the rest were expected to be transported by air on Tuesday. The counting of votes is scheduled to start at 11 a.m. on July 20. In terms of the value of the votes, the Sikkim Assembly has the lowest of seven and Uttar Pradesh the highest of 208. The total value of the votes of the Electoral College, which comprises 776 MPs and 4,120 MLAs, is 10,98,903.

67. Eco-bridges for the movement of tigers

Vegetation will camouflage fragmentation of forests along the Pranahita barrage In a first of its kind, Telangana State will have eco-friendly bridges over a canal cutting across the tiger corridor linking the Tadoba-Andhari Tiger Reserve (TATR) in the Chandrapur district of Maharashtra with the forests in Telangana's Kumram Bheem Asifabad district. The intervention requires the laying of fertile soil to grow grass and plants over the structure, so that fragmentation of the reserve forest is camouflaged. The ‘eco-bridges’ will be constructed at key spots along the 72 km-long, and at some places over a kilometre wide, right flank canal of the Pranahita barrage in the Bejjur and Dahegaon mandals, according to Chief Engineer (Projects) K. Bhagwanth Rao. One of the locations tentatively earmarked for the eco-bridge is a spot close to Sulgupalli in the Bejjur forest range. Here, the canal is over a kilometre wide and the need to facilitate the movement of wild animals is quite necessary. The concept emerged after visits by experts from the Wildlife Board of India and the Wildlife Institute of India. They were concerned about the large-scale destruction of pristine forest along the corridor, which would result in cutting off tiger movement between TATR and Bejjur. The Telangana Irrigation Department has given its consent for the construction of the eco-bridges. Recommendations on the size and locations of the bridges are awaited from the National Board of Wildlife, Mr. Rao said.

In recent years, big cats from the TATR have ambled into the mixed and bamboo forests of the Bejjur range via the Sirpur forests. The TATR and its buffer area, which are contiguous with the Sirpur forests, boast of a speedily multiplying tiger population, the cause of the frequent migration of tigers into Sirpur and Bejjur.

68. Easing the rhetoric: on the India-China stand-off

Keeping the Opposition in the loop on the tri-junction stand-off has been a wise move The Centre’s briefing to the Opposition on the ongoing stand-off with China on the Doklam plateau was long overdue. The Defence, Home and External Affairs Ministers and senior officials, including the National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary, spent two evenings explaining the ground position and the strategy ahead to Opposition leaders representing the political spectrum and different States. This is a clear signal of the gravity with which the government views the situation at Doklam, and the bipartisan iteration of the national interest that New Delhi would like to underline at a time of heightened rhetoric from the Chinese foreign office and media. The message the government sent, beyond the facts of how the stand-off began, was threefold: that Indian troops now sit across from Chinese troops for a second month at a part of the tri- junction claimed by Bhutan; that India is upholding its commitment to Bhutan with its military presence there; and finally, that it is pursuing all diplomatic options in order to resolve differences with China on the dispute. China has so far rejected any talks until the Indian troops move back. But New Delhi’s insistence on neither asking the troops to step back nor stopping the pursuit of dialogue is a mature response. It is to be hoped that National Security Adviser Ajit Doval’s coming visit to Beijing to attend a BRICS meeting hosted by his counterpart, and other engagements in the run-up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Xiamen for the BRICS summit in September, will see this strategy bear fruit. In inviting television panellists and foreign policy analysts to a separate briefing on Doklam some weeks ago, the External Affairs Ministry also indicated a desire to control the narrative emanating from India, by restraining easily excitable commentators and TV anchors from wrapping themselves in the flag and advocating aggressive military postures. However, India will have to do much more than control the message to resolve this stand-off. China’s continued belligerence, amplified by its state-owned media outlets, on the issue suggests that the ‘Astana consensus’ between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping to not “allow differences to become disputes” is a fragile one. Despite all provocations, it should be kept in mind that Indian troops stand not on Indian territory but on territory claimed by Bhutan, and at Thimphu’s request. China’s actions at Doklam are aimed as much at putting a spotlight on the Indian presence there

as they are at compelling Bhutan to loosen the tight bonds that have historically held New Delhi and Thimphu together. Instead of highlighting the stand-off as an India-China dispute, therefore, the government must ensure that every step it takes is in consultation with Thimphu, and make it clear that any final decision it takes will not be about a “win or lose” for India, but dictated by what is in Bhutan’s best interests.

69. Forever young: on Roger Federer's longevity

At almost 36, Roger Federer is clearly still not done with the Majors Wimbledon’s greatest illusion is the sense of timelessness it evokes. Over the past fortnight on its hallowed lawns, one of its finest champions managed to pull off a similar impression. At 35 years and 342 days, Roger Federer became the oldest man to win the singles title in the Open Era — a full 14 years after he first claimed the title as a scruffy, ponytailed upstart. Sunday’s triumph continued a dominant, magical 2017 for the maestro, something no one saw coming. When he limped off Centre Court with a knee injury last year, beaten in the semi-finals by Milos Raonic, the future had looked bleak. But two far- sighted decisions have proven life-altering. Federer opted to take six months off to undergo surgery and regain his health. Then, after winning the Australian Open , he skipped Roland-Garros , a choice someone who lives for the Majors doesn’t make lightly. He reasoned that his body needed to be spared the exertions of a grinding clay-court season so he could arrive in London ready for an uncompromising tilt at a record eighth title. Once he had survived the opening week, a tricky period during which the tournament isn’t won but is often lost, the astuteness of his judgment become apparent. For, the second week witnessed the range of a rested Federer’s genius. Against Grigor Dimitrov, whose style he has influenced, he was opportunistic, secure in the knowledge that he had too much game for the Bulgarian. Federer saved his most exquisite tennis for the quarter-finals, where he neutralised Raonic’s heavy artillery with cunning finesse. The match offered a measure of his progress since the defeat 12 months back: he looked stronger and sturdier than the haggard figure he had cut at the last Championships, playing with a joie de vivre reminiscent of his younger days. He did not hit the same heights against Tomas Berdych in the semi-finals; he had to draw instead from his reserves of resilience. In the final, he was the cold-blooded closer. Here was the iron fist in a velvet glove, as an injured Marin Čilić was permitted no sympathy. Through the two weeks, Federer’s versatile serve held firm — he was broken just four times en route to a 19th Grand Slam triumph. His balletic movement stayed on point. The switch to a more powerful racquet has clearly helped, as have a recast backhand and an increased willingness to force the pace. He often landed the first strike, an ability grass privileges. And when he didn’t, he was able to make the precise adjustments in footwork and arm-flow

that grass’ sometimes quirky bounce forces on a player. His is a method that has aged well. Given that it isn’t reliant on explosive athleticism or muscular ball-striking, both vulnerable to decay, there is cause to believe that Federer will continue to enchant for a while longer. It does not appear as though he is done winning Majors.

70. After globalisation’s promise

Sluggish global growth should prompt India to look inward — at augmenting public investment to spur demand ‘Hyperglobalisation’ has been used to describe the dramatic increase in international trade witnessed for about a decade and a half from the early 1990s up to the global financial crisis of 2008. The imagery intended is one of an increasing connectedness among nations leading to a virtuous cycle of economic expansion. By a trait common to every generation, we tend to assume that ours is somehow unique, in this case with respect to globalisation. However, if we are to take the long view, we would find that this is no more than a conceit. Starting some time in the last quarter of the 19th century, for close to 50 years, the world saw an expansion in trade that was actually as great or even greater than during the recently concluded phase. Then had also occurred an unprecedented movement of capital and of people. British capital flowed into building the railways across the world, immigrants moved from Europe to the United States and Asian labour was moved to the sites of deployment of western capital.

End of a phase So, the facts are that the world has seen the waxing and waning of global traffic in goods, capital and people. To be precise, the phase of high trade starting 1870 came to an end with the First World War and was to revive, slowly, only after the Second. Then, following the collapse of East European communism in the early 1990s, there was a resurgence in global trade. Now even this phase has somewhat abruptly ended with the global financial crisis. Economists who study trade flows have gone to the extent of claiming that hyperglobalisation was a one-time event unlikely to be repeated. Though some may hold that we ought to shun economists offering predictions with as much diligence as we should beware of enemies bearing gifts, it may pay us to heed their prognosis, for were it to be true, it has implications for economic possibilities in India. Note that even if vigour were to return to the global economy 25 years from now, that would still account for a significant chunk of the working life of an Indian, for which period alternative economic opportunities would have to be found.

Role of technology What underlies the scepticism expressed regarding a revival of global trade? The view is based on the observation that especially 19th century globalisation was underpinned by technological advances that facilitated trade. The advent of the telegraph is alluded to along with the invention of the internal combustion engine. The former enabled the communications infrastructure intrinsic to trade and the latter enabled the fast, reliable and cheap transportation of goods across seas. These advances, we are told, dwarf anything since, including the Internet, in terms of their capacity to expand trade. And, none is foreseen in the immediate future. This account of how advances in technology fuelled trade is of undoubted relevance but remains partial in that it leaves out the role of the growth in demand for these technologies. It was, after all, the growing market for British goods as Indian manufacturing was dislodged following military conquest and as British capital flowed into the laying of a rail network in parts of Latin America and Africa that provided the demand for development of cheaper communication and transportation technology. Therefore, it may as well be said that trade expanded as the demand for goods grew. However, it is yet true that when global demand expands, countries can exploit the trade route to grow their economies. This was the great promise of globalisation held out to the developing countries in the 1990s. Now, what does all this have to do with us in India today? A great deal, actually.

The slowdown and India If the world economy is set to grow slowly for the foreseeable future, a premise of much of the economic policy in India since 1991 would have to be replaced. It had been assumed then that globalisation was here to stay and India had only to hitch onto its current to ride to prosperity. This India has even successfully done in phases since. Now, however, we need to recognise that the game may have changed substantially — even if not irrevocably, as the experts claim. The shift that has taken place is visible most in the IT industry. Quarterly growth only inches forward there and insecurity grips its particularly young workforce. In retrospect, we can see the hollowness of the boast that had made the rounds a decade ago that India need not bother with manufacturing when it could leapfrog into a service economy led by IT exports. Now, “bricks and mortar” is no longer something to be spurned and soiling our hands may be part of the business of earning our living for some time to come. Recognising the diminished tempo of globalisation, India’s economic policymakers must address the growth of the home market, which is the demand for goods and services emanating from within the country. The immediate points of action and the appropriate instruments can be identified without much strain on our ingenuity. In the short run or the present, when the global economy is sluggish, only domestic investment can move demand.

In India, we have been witnessing slowing or depressed private investment for close to five years by now. There is a view that this has to do with tight monetary policy. It is true that the real lending rate for firms has been rising as inflation is falling. Such a policy stance can be justified only by resorting to the claim that the Reserve Bank of India knows something about future inflation that we don’t, in particular that inflation is set to rise again soon. Barring this possibility, there is a case for cutting the repo rate now, and there is a clamour for this. But there are reasons to doubt the potency of such an action, one each from the supply and the demand sides. Given that they hold non-performing assets, the banks are extremely wary of lending. Any significant resumption of lending by banks may be hostage to their first resolving the bad loans problem. Ditto with the firms, which are themselves debt-laden. Are they likely to take on more of it, just because it is offered at a lower rate, before cleaning up their balance sheets?

On public investment Independently of the ‘twin balance sheet problem’, Keynesian economics has long recognised that lowering the rate of interest may not do much for private investment if the expected rate of return is depressed. The slowing of both global trade and domestic manufacturing may have had precisely this effect by lowering the long-term expectations held by private investors. We do, however, know how to buoy up flagging demand. You do this through public investment. In response to the argument heard at the highest level of policymaking that there are no viable projects to be had, one need only refer to a recent news report on the state of our roads and bridges. It is reported that 23 bridges and tunnels on India’s national highways are over 100 years old, of which 17 require rehabilitation or major maintenance. As many as 123 other bridges in the country require immediate attention and 6,000 are “structurally distressed”. Infrastructure is unique in that spending on it raises aggregate demand and when it actually comes on stream, it raises the productivity of investment elsewhere in the economy. ‘Roads and bridges’ are a metaphor for the public infrastructure that the Indian economy can fruitfully absorb today. For the country’s political leadership, the task is no longer to find trading partners to hug but to buckle down to the heavy lifting of expanding physical infrastructure.

71. Spaces, not embraces

For India, the impact of a closer camaraderie with the U.S. is better judged by the challenges the superpower’s receding global role presents In early 1987, U.S. President Ronald Reagan had difficult choices to make on the future of Afghanistan. As the Soviet Union planned its pull-out, the U.S. government, more notably the Central Investigation Agency, had been arming

mujahideen fighters trained by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence to hasten the process by pushing out the Soviet army. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was, given his close ties with the Soviet leadership and a growing friendship with Reagan, trying to advocate a path of conciliation that clashed with Pakistan’s plans to control Kabul: a government of national unity supporting the newly appointed President Najibullah. After months of considering the Indian case for a “non-aligned” Afghanistan, however, Reagan and the U.S. Congress chose the other course, transferring funds, arms and responsibility for the outcome to Pakistan. The rest is history. In 2001, after the 9/11 attacks, U.S. President George W. Bush had a similarly complex decision to make on the future of Afghanistan. The attacks had brought a rare moment of global unity, one which saw Russia, India, China, Pakistan and Iran pledge support to the U.S.’s plan to defeat the Taliban and its al-Qaeda guests. Within months, however, the bonhomie was banished with three words, as Mr. Bush pronounced Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as the “Axis of Evil”, choosing Pakistan as its ally to continue its war in Afghanistan.

Trump’s geopolitics and India In 2017, President Donald Trump is in the same place as his administration finalises its Af-Pak policy review to be announced in July, and New Delhi once again has its hopes up that the U.S. will take a stern view of Pakistan’s support to the Taliban and its use of terror groups that target both Afghan and Indian interests. But while the Trump administration has openly called for a cut in military aid to Islamabad , New Delhi would be missing the wood for the trees if it doesn’t see how the U.S.’s actions in other theatres besides Afghanistan — West Asia, South China Sea and multilateral organisations — is equally important to India’s future. Mr. Trump’s first foreign visit was to Saudi Arabia, where he presided over a grand show of Arab-Islamic unity. His wholehearted support to Saudi Arabia, his call for a unity of the Abrahamic faiths (Christianity, Islam and Judaism) and his open call to isolate Iran, however, came unstuck within days. Saudi Arabia and several other nations decided to blockade Qatar , calling for it to cut ties with Iran, ban the Muslim Brotherhood and shut down the Al Jazeera media network which they said targets the rest of the Gulf’s leadership. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj dismissed fears of any impact on India from the move. But the government must go beyond the obvious to assess its impact. To begin with, the move to squeeze Qatar’s ties with Iran will only serve to isolate Tehran further, a mere two years after it been brought out of sanctions, and will force New Delhi to curtail its links as well. In April this year, state- owned refiners including the Indian Oil Corporation said they would cut imports from Iran by 20% in a bid to pressure Tehran to award the Farzad-B

gas field to a consortium led by ONGC Videsh. Iran reacted angrily, slashing the credit period given to Indian refiners from 90 days to 60 days. In the weeks that followed, it announced an agreement with Russia’s Gazprom for Farzad-B, and reports indicate Iran may also diversify Chabahar port’s dealings beyond India, by inviting China to help with managing its ports. It would follow naturally that as Mr. Trump, who has already convinced Prime Minister Narendra Modi to make India’s first order for crude oil from the U.S. this month, pushes for New Delhi to deal less with Tehran, Iran will look away from its cooperation with India on Afghanistan and more towards the growing alliance between Russia, China and Pakistan instead. For Afghanistan’s government too, the move to cut Qatar out effectively constricts its cooperation on promoting talks with the Taliban based in Doha, though India has always disapproved of the reconciliation process. Finally, Mr. Trump’s plans for troop levels in Afghanistan seem modest at best, and according to a leaked memo the White House, he would like the numbers of American troops to add to the current 8,400 capped at 3,900. Given that President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge of troops to 100,000 had little impact on the war in Afghanistan, this implies that the U.S. will simply cede more space to Russian-led efforts. India thus risks becoming partner to a player whose military role in Afghanistan is in decline over a more nascent alliance. A similar relinquishing of space can be gleaned from Mr. Trump’s moves with China. While New Delhi felt justifiably happy with theIndia-U.S. joint statement ’s mention of China’s Belt and Road initiative in line with its concerns on sovereignty issues, the fact is that the Trump administration has baulked at much of the strong language the Obama administration preferred on the South China Sea. Instead of saying the two countries would “ensure” freedom of navigation, overflight and commerce through the Indo-Pacific region, the Trump-Modi statement only “reiterates the importance of respecting freedom of navigation, overflight, and commerce throughout the region”. No mention is made of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea — under which a tribunal ruled against China’s claims in the South China Sea — which was referred to the previous year. The impact of this will only serve to embolden China’s moves on its other frontiers, most notably in South Asia, with the ongoing Doklam stand-off as one indicator. In the bigger picture, Mr. Trump’s geopolitical moves thus far can be seen as empowering regional bullies in their spheres of influence: Russia, China, Saudi Arabia and so on.

Ceding space globally Meanwhile, Mr. Trump is rapidly vacating the U.S.’s space in multilateral spheres. The U.S. has reneged on the Paris accord, something that was in sharp focus at the recently held G20 in Hamburg, and India faces a slashing of the climate change fund that was meant to help keep its commitments on renewable energy as a result. On free trade agreements like the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the U.S. has already voted with its feet. And at the UN, Mr.

Trump’s obvious lack of interest in funding the world body will drastically cut resources for peacekeeping and other projects that India has an interest in. As a result, Mr. Trump’s decision on Afghanistan must be closely watched, but without unrealistic expectations. For India, the impact of Mr. Trump’s world view and international policies are better judged not by the closeness of his embraces with Mr. Modi, but the spaces that he is ceding across the globe.

72. The post-IS proxy war

The defeat of the Islamic State is inevitable. But the next conflict has already begun, with Iran in the gunsights of U.S. After the Iraqi military, with U.S. aerial support, dislodged the Islamic State (IS) from Mosul, IS fighters have dashed to the new front lines in Iraq and Syria. They stand and fight when necessary, but are equally comfortable abandoning territory for more hardened positions. In Iraq, the IS remains fortified in small towns along the river Tigris, south of the Iraqi Kurdish enclave. Iraqi forces — including the Iranian-trained militias — have begun to move to the city of Hawija, where the new self-styled caliph, Abu Haitham al-Obaidi, is in command. The battle for Hawija will not take the nine months that it took to remove the IS from Mosul. But it will be as vicious. Meanwhile, U.S. bombers continue to strike the Syrian city of Raqqa, which remains in IS hands. U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish fighters from the Syrian Democratic Forces are moving slowly to encircle the city. Their advance is entirely helped by the horrific levels of bombardment that the city has had to endure. The UN has complained of a ‘staggering loss of life’. Numbers are unavailable. The atmosphere is electric and the city could fall any day. Further south, near the border between Iraq and Syria, another war is brewing. This is perhaps the front line of the next major battle, for the future of both Iraq and Syria. The U.S. has made it clear that it would like to deny Iran any future role in either Iraq or Syria.

Iran’s great influence In Iraq, the Iranians have become indispensable. Their close allies govern in Baghdad, while their trained militias have been fighting alongside the Iraqi Army against the IS. Syria’s Bashar al-Assad would have lost Damascus without Iranian military support as well as the assistance of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah. It is impossible to imagine a scenario where Iran does not have influence in Damascus and Baghdad. Early into the Syrian war, the IS and various other rebel groups seized the border towns that link Iraq to Syria. This meant that Iran lost its crucial land bridge to resupply the Syrian government and Hezbollah. It had to rely on sending military hardware by an expensive air bridge. The U.S. pressured the

Iraqi government to prevent these flights, and to cut off Syria from Iranian support. Iraq refused and continued to allow Iranian aircraft to carry material to Syria. But the land bridge could not be re-established. Over the past six months, Syrian troops, with the support of Iran-backed militias (including the Afghan Fatemiyoun Division) and of Russian jets, have moved closer to the border town of Tanf. The U.S., eager to prevent the reopening of these roadways that link Iran to the Mediterranean Sea, built a base at Tanf. U.S. Special Forces operated from there alongside anti- government groups such as Maghawir al-Thawra and Shohada al-Qaryatayn, both trained by the CIA in Jordan. This U.S. airbase sits perilously, surrounded by Syrian and Iranian troops. When these troops move near the base, U.S. aircraft target them. Syrian government officials say that the U.S. has airlifted some of their assets from this base to one of their eight bases in north-eastern Syria, from where they are conducting ground operations against the IS. In June, Iran’s leading strategist, General Qassim Soleimani, made a visit to Tanf. It is sign of how seriously the Iranians take this sector of the war. North of this base sits Syria’s main city in the east, Deir ez-Zor. Held by the government, the city has been under siege by the IS since 2014. It is in the vicinity of Deir ez-Zor that Syria’s remaining oil reserves sit. Mr. Assad’s forces have been eager to break its siege, not only to relieve the desperate civilians, but to control the oilfields and the border. Iraqi aircraft — with Syrian permission — have been bombing IS targets around the city. The U.S. would like to prevent such coordination, but it has been unable to do so. Pressure on Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to absorb the militias into the formal Iraqi Army, which would get an infusion of U.S. cash, has not worked. Russian and Iranian forces helped Mr. Assad take back Arak, a key town on the M20 highway from Damascus to Deir ez-Zor. It is likely that the Syrian government will beat the Americans to that part of the border. The defeat of the IS is inevitable. But this is not the end of the war. The next conflict has already begun, with Iran in the gunsights of the U.S. Clashes between the U.S. and Iranian forces in Syria could spiral out of control.

73. Masking the flaws

The government’s review report on the SDGs presents an inaccurate picture The government claims to have made substantial progress in achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In its Voluntary National Review (VNR) report, to be presented at the ongoing UN High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) in New York, it portrays a picture of ‘all is well’. However, the ground reality is in contrast to these claims.

A total of 44 nations, including India, have volunteered for review on various SDGs relating to issues like poverty, hunger, health and gender inequality. India’s report, prepared by the NITI Aayog, attributes the sharp reduction of poverty from 45.3% in 1993-94 to 22% in 2011-12 to the economic growth after liberalisation. However, a shadow report on SDGs prepared by civil society organisations in India, led by the Wada Na Todo Abhiyan (WNTA), states that India’s growth story of the last two decades has accentuated inequalities, perpetuated poverty and limited the choices of historically marginalised communities. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) has lifted millions out of poverty since its inception in 2005. It created more than two billion person-days of employment in 2016-17 alone, states the VNR report. However, budgetary allocation to the scheme has slowed down in recent years, resulting in pending payments of ₹7,000 crore, according to the Centre for Policy Research. To reduce hunger and malnutrition, the National Food Security Act aims to provide foodgrains to 66% of the population, covering about 800 million people. To ensure transparency, 77% of the ration cards have been linked to Aadhaar. “But field evidence suggests that mandatory linkage with Aadhaar is excluding the most-needy in interior tribal areas,” points out Rajkishor Mishra of Right to Food Campaign.

Helping the farmers The government, through its National Mission on Sustainable Agriculture, provision of soil health cards and crop insurance, claims to have helped small and marginal farmers, who form 80% of our farmer population. However, the claim falls flat in view of nearly 3,00,000 farmers committing suicide in last two decades. The NDA government may have promised to double farmers’ income, but the increase in MSP is strikingly meagre. Further, the Shanta Kumar committee’s recommendation of replacing PDS by cash transfer which will dispense with the procurement system, if it materialises, will sound the death knell to small-scale farming. India has made significant progress over the years on basic health indicators like Infant Mortality Rate (IMR), Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR), institutional deliveries and vaccination coverage. However, 62.4% of the total health expenditure is still out of pocket, putting a huge burden on the poor and the middle class, says the civil society report. In this regard, the aim of the National Health Policy, 2017 of providing affordable health care is welcome. Inclusion of a ‘gaps and lesson learned’ section in performance reviews will go a long way towards the attainment of the SDGs.

74. Does a minimum wage kill jobs?

A flurry of studies has concluded that a minimum wage has negligible effect on employment The Union Cabinet is expected to approve a bill that, among other things, mandates a universal minimum wage. The code empowers the Centre to set a minimum wage to help poor, unskilled workers earn more. Economists, however, have warned for long that price floors prevent the available supply of goods from being fully sold. So, the minimum wage would logically hurt workers by increasing unemployment. But such logic has been questioned since a famous 1993 study by David Card and Alan B. Krueger that made the case that a rise in the minimum wage in New Jersey actually decreased unemployment. Since then, a flurry of studies has concluded that a minimum wage has either no, or very little, negative effect on employment. For instance, “Seattle’s Minimum Wage Experience 2015-16”, a 2017 study by researchers at the University of California Berkeley, found that since the city raised its minimum wage in 2015, unemployment dropped from 4.3% to 3.3%. Another paper, “Do Lower Minimum Wages for Young Workers Raise their Employment?”, by Claus Thustrup Kreiner, Daniel Reck, and Peer Ebbesen Skov, found that employment among the youth in Denmark decreased by one- third when they attained the age at which their minimum wage increases by 40%. Other economists have found similar evidence suggesting that a minimum wage increases unemployment. Given such contradictory empirical findings, some say it may be wise to trust age-old economic wisdom. The minimum wage increases unemployment, except when it is set below the market price for labour; or only marginally higher, in which case the minimum wage enhances the bargaining power of workers. But figuring out, and also periodically adjusting, the wage rate at which the worker benefits is often impractical. Consider that even when it looks like the minimum wage has no negative effect on employment, it can have other unintended effects. Companies, for example, instead of firing workers, may employ them for fewer hours, which in turn will affect the quality of their services. In fact, “Minimum Wage and Restaurant Hygiene Violation”, a 2017 paper by Subir K. Chakrabarti, Srikant Devaraj, and Pankaj C. Patel, found that hygiene violations by restaurants increased significantly after a rise in the minimum wage as the restaurants tried to cut down on cleaning-staff expenses.

75. Beyond the barbed wire

Krishnendu Bose’s National Award winning documentary, “The Tiger Who Crossed The Line”, critically examines the impact of animal-human conflict The animal-human conflict is on the rise as evident from frequent print and visual reports of tiger and leopard straying into human habitation and attacking people and livestock. Usually these predators’ end is fatal, with a lucky few being rescued by authorities to be relocated. In the mass hysteria generated by such cases, the critical why and how of the incident is crucially missed. This is what Krishnendu Bose’s 45-minute documentary The Tiger Who Crossed The Line , winner of the National Award for Best Environment Film including Best Agricultural Film 2016, brings into sharp focus. It comprehensively highlights conservation issues; steps taken to tackle them while taking the viewers across several wildlife reserves — Corbett, Ramnagar, Sunderbans, Pilibhit and Western Ghats. Moreover, the documentary draws attention to the upshot of Project Tiger’s success. While the State protection in reserves is triggering increase in numbers, it is also forcing the big cats to move to new areas, generating animal-human conflicts in the process. With most films concentrating on tigers inside sanctuaries, Bose says, “The real story is outside the protected areas. People have seen the stories on tigers living inside the forests for the last 40 years. With 40 per cent of tigers roaming outside, the story is here and not inside.” The documentary takes us on a seamless journey of these tigers while explaining the reasons for their straying and highlighting problems faced bypeople where animal-human conflicts exist or are ready to implode. Bose does well to capture the uphill task faced by forest officials and how they are coping it. Daunting task Being fiercely territorial, tiger population is decided by prey density, tree cover and water in an area. When numbers soar, it results in some moving out. When that happens as in Ramnagar forest reserve where Corbett National Park tigers are moving, it threatens villagers and livestock. Ramnagar has an average loss of 1000 cattle annually, roughly three a day. Faced with the daunting task of checking and protecting these intruders, Ramnagar’s Divisional Forest Officer, Kahkashan Naseem quips: “Our tigers are below poverty line and Corbett ones above, as they get the facilities which we are unable to offer.” She says lack of manpower and infrastructure forces one guard to take up three beats and that too without proper field gear. “Some go to the forest wearing slippers.”

In Sunderbans, full of stories of deaths due to tiger attack, there has been a concerted attempt to control and bring down the conflict which has escalated in the last 15 years. In the film, one gets to hear incidents of Robi losing an eye and Ram Narayan’s young son falling prey to tiger attacks. Yet, remarkably, a vast majority of victims and their families do not hold a grudge. Ram Narayan states that neither residents of Sunderbans nor he wants tigers to be annihilated but want their lives and stock to be secured. “Tigers protect the forests. Once they are gone there will be no more forests. Not even the Government can ensure protection,” he observes. Ramnagar resident Jaikishan, who lost his cattle, comments philosophically, “Tigers have been living in the forests before us. We also intrude into their area for fuel and food so if they take our cattle, it squares the account.” Is it a case of forced coexistence or are people genuinely concerned? “I have come across people with tolerance and reflecting a spirit of coexistence. In India, respect and fear of wild animals still runs deep. What Jaikishan and Ram Narayan said is very moving and symptomatic of people living with tigers,” says Bose On pointing out the difference in conservation discourse from ground reality, Bose agrees, “The urban contemporary debates usually don’t go beyond clean air, clean Ganga and increasing the number of tigers. In a country like India, it is an ethical and philosophical question of sharing space with beings, who have been here before humans came. India is fortunate to have this core philosophy alive in its rural and forested spaces.” Taking up the case of increasing tiger numbers in Maharashtra’s successful Tadoba Andhari tiger reserve, the documentary underlines its fallout . Happy with cubs being born regularly, its Field Director G.P. Garad expresses concern. “In two to three years when they’ll be ready to leave their mothers to find new territories, where will they go?” Realising the gravity of the situation, Chandrapur forest officials have set up cameras at strategic places to monitor the movement of the cats 24x7. “Even though outside, we try to give these tigers as much protection as inside. They can’t be left as orphans or neglected,” says Sanjay Thakre, Chief Conservator. Managing numbers Isn’t that an ironic situation for a success story? “The critical thing is to manage the numbers and not just to push it in a factory assembly line way. Tadoba, with 15 deaths already officially reported in the last six months, is heading towards being an important conflict zone.” The film underscores the necessity to create and maintain corridors between reserves to allow tiger movement and widen their gene pool, it examines some important ones. Tigers, in the celebrated corridor between Kanha and Pench,

negotiate highways, several villages, corporation forests, railway lines and busy roads. Blaming lack of political will to ensure proper passage for animals, Bose says, “Science has proved importance of corridors for the long term survival of big mammals and if we are not doing it, then clearly we are not interested in their survival.” Balaghat area, which has tremendous conservation potential, is cut off from Kanha and Pench by a narrow gauge line — proposed to be converted to broad gauge. All this is undeniably linked to choosing between development and conservation. Concurring, Bose says, the balance has always slowly titled towards development. “I feel the importance of forests and conservation, the ethical and philosophical arguments, have not been addressed effectively by communicators, environmentalists or filmmakers like me.” Besides there is a sense of alienation among the locals whose support is imperative to maintain the eco-system. “A wedge is being driven between forests and the people living in and around them. People activists fight for people while wildlife lobby for the tigers. Nobody looked at the holistic big picture of the forest with its people.” Expressing his happiness over winning the National Award, Bose is modest about its impact. “Films rarely make lasting changes. If anyone says they do, I think it is gross exaggeration,” he jokes. Continuing, he adds, “Films can at best kick start conversations and debates, catalysing a disruptive thinking process to support and fuel a social movement.”

76. Aadhaar: 9-judge Bench to consider whether privacy is a basic right

SC refers question raised by bunch of petitions against the unique ID scheme A nine-judge Bench of the Supreme Court will on Wednesday hear the question whether privacy is a fundamental human right and is part of the basic structure of the Constitution. The nine judges will be Chief Justice of India J.S. Khehar, Justices J. Chelameswar, S.A. Bobde, R.K. Agrawal, Rohinton Fali Nariman, A.M. Sapre, D.Y. Chandrachud, Sanjay Kishan Kaul and S. Abdul Nazeer. The decision taken on Tuesday by a five-judge Constitution Bench led by Chief Justice Khehar is on the basis of a bunch of petitions contending that the Aadhaar scheme, is a violation of the citizens’ right to privacy. The petitioners have argued that right to privacy is part of Article 21, the right to life, and interspersed in Article 19, though not explicitly stated in the Constitution. Two judgments of the Supreme Court — the M.P. Sharma case verdict pronounced by an eight-judge Bench in 1954 shortly after the Constitution came into force in 1950 and the Kharak Singh case verdict of 1962 by a six-

judge Bench — had dominated the judicial dialogue on privacy since Independence. Both judgments had concluded that privacy was not a fundamental or ‘guaranteed’ right. Though smaller Supreme Court Benches have, over the years, differed and held that privacy is indeed basic to our Constitution and a fundamental right, the arithmetical supremacy of the MP Sharma and Kharak Singh cases continues to hold fort. Taking a final call Now, by forming a Bench of nine judges, Chief Justice Khehar’s Supreme Court has decided to determine once and for all whether privacy is negotiable or not. The nine-judge Bench seeks to bring a quietus to the divergent judicial pronouncements of the past. “It is essential for us to determine whether there is a fundamental right to privacy or not. Determination of the question would essentially entail whether decisions in M.P. Sharma and Kharak Singh cases that there is no such fundamental right is the correct expression of the constitutional question,” Chief Justice Khehar recorded in the order. “We have to first determine whether right to privacy is a fundamental right or not before going into the issue (on the constitutionality of the Aadhaar scheme),” Chief Justice Khehar observed. “In a Republic founded on a written Constitution, it is difficult to accept there is no fundamental right to privacy... There is a battery of judgments saying privacy is a fundamental right, we cannot ignore them. We have to give serious thought to this question,” Justice Chelameswar told the government.

77. Get real on Swachh: on manual scavenging

Responsibility must be fixed on State governments to end manual scavenging Despite the most stringent penal provisions in the law against manual scavenging, it continues in parts of India. The recent order of the Madras High Court asking the Centre and the Tamil Nadu government to ensure the strict enforcement of the Prohibition of Employment as Manual Scavengers and their Rehabilitation Act, 2013, in the wake of the death of 30 people engaged in the activity in the State in recent years, points to the malaise. Evidently, the vigorous national campaign for the rehabilitation of those engaged to manually clean insanitary latrines, and urban structures into which human excreta flows without sewerage, has been unable to break governmental indifference and social prejudice. Manual scavenging persists mainly because of the continued presence of insanitary latrines, of which there are about 2.6 million that require cleaning by hand, according to the activist organisation, Safai

Karmachari Andolan. In spite of a legal obligation to do so, State governments are not keen to demolish and rebuild old facilities lacking sanitation, or conduct a full census of both the latrines and the people engaged in clearing such waste. The Central government, which directly runs the self-employment scheme for the rehabilitation of these workers, has reduced funds from ₹448 crore in the 2014-15 budget to ₹5 crore this year. High allocation in the past has not meant substantial or effective utilisation. This is incongruous, as sanitation is high on the agenda of the NDA government, and the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan is one of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s favourite programmes, to which the public was contributing a cess. A determined approach to end the scourge requires a campaign against social prejudice that impedes solutions in two ways. Many communities still regard the inclusion of a sanitary toilet as ritual and physical pollution of the house, and even the less conservative are ready to accept only large, expensive and unscientific structures much bigger than those recommended by the WHO. More pernicious is the entrenched belief in the caste system, that assumes Dalits will readily perform the stigmatised task of emptying latrines. Clearly, the law on punishment exists only on paper. Change now depends on the willingness of the courts to fix responsibility on State governments, and order an accurate survey of the practice especially in those States that claim to have no insanitary latrines or manual scavenging. Raising the confidence level among those engaged in manual cleaning is vital; even official data show their reluctance to take up self-employment. Empowerment holds the key to change, but that would depend on breaking caste barriers through education and economic uplift. Compensation sanctioned for the families of those who died in the course of the humiliating and hazardous work should be paid immediately; only a fraction of those with verified claims have received it.

78. Erdoğan’s excesses: a year on from the Turkey coup

A year after he defeated a coup, Turkey’s President continues to tighten his grip Last July, hundreds of thousands of Turkish citizens hit the streets to defend democracy when a faction of the military tried to seize power through a coup . It was a rare occasion of unity in Turkey’s otherwise fractious politics, with most parties denouncing the coup bid and Opposition politicians rushing to the government’s defence. The coup was defeated, leaving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a much stronger position. Mr. Erdoğan could have used the victory to usher in a new chapter in Turkey’s democracy. He could have introduced more reforms, expanded human rights and corrected the past wrongs of his government, which contributed to the military unrest in the first place. But what happened was exactly the opposite. Mr. Erdoğan launched a purge in the name of taking on the coup-plotters. The government blamed Fethullah Gülen,

a U.S.-based Turkish Islamic preacher, for the coup, and said the crackdown was aimed at removing Mr. Güllen’s “parallel structure” from the government. But the nature and scope of the crackdown suggested it was targeted at more than just Mr. Güllen’s supporters. The government imposed a state of emergency as soon as the coup was defeated; it is still in place. More than 50,000 people have been jailed over the year. Twelve MPs, including Selahattin Demirtaş, a Kurdish politician and former presidential candidate, and at least 120 journalists are behind bars. Around 100,000 people have been dismissed from state service. Even as the country was grappling with the post-coup purge and the emergency, Mr. Erdoğan went ahead with a referendum to change the Constitution. He won the vote, setting off a process to transform Turkey from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency. Domestically, his strongman image and a conservative agenda that appeals to the religious Turks lend support to his policies. Internationally, Mr. Erdogan’s Turkey is too important a regional power for most countries to antagonise over rights violations and authoritarian tendencies. Though there is occasional criticism, the West is keen to get along with Turkey, a crucial NATO ally. So Mr. Erdoğan may have found this an opportune time to leave his mark on Turkey. But how long can he rule by undermining its institutions? In power since 2002, his AK Party-led government has started showing signs of stress. This year’s referendum scraped through by a narrow margin. The Opposition, especially the Republican People’s Party, is trying to mobilise supporters. Its leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, recently led a ‘March for Justice’ from Ankara to Istanbul. The security situation is precarious, with a civil war raging in the Kurdish- populated southeast and jihadists targeting cities. Today, Turkey needs stability and unity most. But Mr. Erdoğan’s excesses endanger both.

79. No common ground on the Doklam plateau

China and India see the stand-off very differently — it’s important for the Special Representatives to meet The Doklam plateau has become the unlikely scene of the latest India-China imbroglio. The region falls within Bhutanese territory, but this is now questioned by China. The Chumbi valley is vital for India, and any change is fraught with dangerous possibilities. The incident stems from differences between Bhutan and India on the one hand and China on the other as to the exact location of the tri-junction between the three countries. In 2007, India and Bhutan had negotiated a Friendship Treaty to replace an earlier one. According to the revised treaty, the two countries are committed to coordinate on issues relating to their national interests. The terms of the 2007 Friendship Treaty are somewhat milder than the one it replaced, which

provided India greater latitude in determining Bhutan’s foreign relations, but there is little doubt about the import of the revised treaty.

Cartographic aggression China’s current claims over the Doklam plateau should be seen as yet another instance of cartographic aggression, which China often engages in. It is, however, China’s action of building an all-weather road on Bhutan’s territory, one capable of sustaining heavy vehicles, that has prompted Bhutan and India to coordinate their actions in their joint national interests, under the terms of the 2007 Friendship Treaty. Many of the points involved in the current stand-off are disputed or disputable. The Sikkim (India)-China border was the only settled segment of the nearly 4,000-km-long India-China border. It adheres to the Anglo-Chinese Convention of 1890, signed between Britain and China, though the exact location of the tri- junction is today in dispute. The Indian side puts it near Batang La, while China claims that it is located at Mt. Gipmochi further south. The Bhutanese are rather equivocal about China’s claims, acknowledging that Tibetan graziers had free access to the Doklam plateau and the Dorsa Nala area, but accept the fact that the tri-junction is at Batang La. China has long eyed this area. It has been keen to establish its physical presence in a region that it claims belongs to China according to the 1890 Convention. With China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) gaining momentum, and completion of infrastructure programmes such as the Lhasa-Shigatse Railway, China appears to have turned its attention to the Doklam plateau, eying an opportunity to establish a strong presence close to the Indian border. The Doklam plateau has indirectly figured in the several rounds of border talks that have been held between China and Bhutan. Reliable reports suggest that China is not unwilling to make generous concessions to Bhutan in return for a mutually acceptable border settlement. Thus, China appears willing to make concessions in the north, in return for land in the west, comprising the eastern shoulder of the Chumbi valley which incorporates the Doklam plateau. It would be a serious mistake to treat the present incident as another run-of- the-mill border incident on the pattern of incidents reported from different points on the disputed Sino-Indian border. There are substantial differences, for instance, between the current incident in the Doklam plateau and past stand-offs such as the ones in Depsang and Chumar, or even for that matter, the 1986-87 Wangdung incident near Sumdorong Chu in Arunachal Pradesh. Neither side appears to be in a mood to cede ground regarding the dispute. The rhetoric from the Chinese side has been unusually shrill with China laying down ‘conditionalities’ that “India should withdraw its troops to the Indian side of the border to uphold the peace/tranquillity of the China-India border areas as a precondition for essential peace talks”. Implicit threats of an even more

serious situation developing, leading to even more serious consequences, if India did not step back have also been made. The rhetoric seems to convey the message that these are not empty threats.

Unintended consequences China may have temporarily halted its road construction programme, but it appears determined to hold on to its position. India is equally clear that it cannot afford to back down, as of now, having gone to Bhutan’s assistance at a time of need. With both sides intent on a show of strength, the potential it has to provoke an incident with unintended consequences is quite high. China and India see the Doklam stand-off very differently. For China, the issue is one of territorial ‘sovereignty’. For India, the issue is one of national security . Both appear irreconcilable. China is generally not known to make concessions when it comes to aspects of territorial ‘sovereignty’. The entire saga of the Sino- Indian border dispute hinges on this, with China unwilling to make territorial concessions regarding areas over which it once claimed suzerainty. India, for its part cannot be seen to be compromising on its national security. This would be the case if Chinese claims to the Doklam plateau are accepted and the tri- junction is accepted to be further south at Mt. Gipmochi. It would bring China within striking distance of India’s vulnerable ‘Chicken Neck’, the Siliguri Corridor, the life-line to India’s Northeast. This has always been seen as India’s ‘Achilles heel’, and ensuring its security has figured prominently in India’s calculation from the beginning. The possibilities and consequences are both immense and serious. Diplomacy should ordinarily have been the way out, but relations between India and China are far from cordial at present. Even at the highest levels, there are few signs of a thaw. No bilateral meeting took placebetween Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit in Hamburg earlier this month. There were no consequential meetings subsequently, including during the BRICS conclave. India must read proper meanings into China’s unwillingness to hold talks at the highest level. China is categorically laying down difficult pre-conditions for talks, though India is open to the idea of discussions without pre-conditions. These are well reflected in the differences seen between the high voltage Chinese reaction and the measured response of the Indian side.

The play for Bhutan One implication could possibly be that the Chinese wish to convey the impression that this is an issue between China and Bhutan, and it does not recognise the India-Bhutan ‘special relationship’ which provides an Indian guarantee for Bhutanese sovereignty. Another is that the Chinese believe that on their own they can make peace with Bhutan and it is India’s ‘interference’

that is complicating matters. China can be expected to pursue this line vigorously from now on. The geo-political situation, meanwhile, is in a state of flux. Scope for mediation from quarters friendly to both countries is, hence, limited. If anything, China seems to be more advantageously placed than India. India’s friends are most unlikely to pressurise or persuade China to step back. This leaves India to play a lone hand. The only silver lining is that both India and China, though for different reasons, are reluctant to engage in an open conflict — one that could prove detrimental to both. The Chinese economy is slowing down at present and the main preoccupation is to regain its past momentum. China is also preparing for its 19th Party Congress, at which Xi Jinping hopes to establish full control. It is, hence, anxious to avoid any kind of major distraction. India’s reluctance again centres on the economy. Its concerns are that a conflict would stymie economic growth. Both, therefore, have valid reasons not to provoke a conflict. If the deadlock is to be broken, and if diplomacy is ruled out for the present, other measures will need to be considered. One available option is the Special Representative Meeting (SRM) that was set up primarily to deal with border issues. Over the past decade and a half, the SRM has been enlarged to some extent to deal with strategic issues. The issue of the Doklam plateau may not fall neatly into either compartment, but it does not prevent the two countries from pursuing this option. It will not be the first time that the SRM has been used in this manner to deal with knotty problems outside border matters, and I can personally vouchsafe for this. As of now, it appears to be the only viable and meaningful option to tackle the impasse. The Special Representatives should, hence, urgently establish contact and work out a modus vivendi that would ensure a solution without loss of face for either side.

80. Partners in regional security and prosperity

Australia and India can ensure that the Indo-Pacific region remains anchored to a resilient rules-based order Australia and India share converging interests and similar outlooks on the strategic changes taking place in the Indo-Pacific region and globally. Building on our historic ties, cultural links and extensive people-to-people connections, our bilateral relationship is strengthening. India is Australia’s ninth largest trading partner, with boundless potential for growth. Our Indian-origin residents are the fourth largest group of overseas-born Australians, representing close to 2% of our total population. They make a

strong contribution to our country across all fields — business, science and medicine, education, arts and culture and sports. In June, we demonstrated our strong naval ties when the Australia-India Exercise (AUSINDEX) was conducted for the second time, this time off Australia’s west coast. During my visit to India this week, I will reiterate our shared commitment to ensuring the Indo-Pacific region — the most dynamic in the world — remains peaceful and increasingly prosperous. Keeping the peace Australia is committed to working with India and other nations to ensure our region continues to be underpinned by a predictable and resilient rules-based order. The existing post-World War II order has underpinned the extraordinary economic growth we have seen in many parts of the world, and more recently in our region. It has allowed Indo-Pacific states — large and small — to pursue their national and collective interests, while also providing the mechanisms to resolve any disputes peacefully. Increasingly, however, this rules-based order is under pressure. Strategic competition is leading to unilateral action. Rising nationalism is leading to a narrower conception of national interests, and a more transactional approach to negotiations. As democracies, Australia and India have systems of government where leaders are accountable and the rights of citizens are respected. These democratic principles and practices, when translated into foreign affairs and the engagement between nations, are the essence of an international rules-based system. We need to build and strengthen international institutions that promote cooperation and manage competing interests in fair and transparent ways, in order to maintain regional and global stability. Peace and security in the region will also be consolidated if countries have an economic stake in maintaining good relations. Australia is determined to strengthen regional prosperity by maintaining our open, integrated regional economy, underpinned by liberalised trade and investment. Australia and other countries in the region have opened our economies to one another, and have integrated trade, production and investment in a dynamic regional economy, to the benefit of all. India’s growing economic weight has the potential to help lift standards of living in India as well as contribute to prosperity in the wider Indo-Pacific. A new phase of investment Australia welcomes India’s ambitious reform agenda, including the recent introduction of a Goods and Services Tax, and stands ready to lend support, drawing on our own experience. Economic growth and prosperity in the region will also require continued investment in infrastructure.

Increasingly, China is lending its enormous economic weight to a new phase of investment in the region and beyond. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank — which Australia and India joined as founding members — has a role to play in funding infrastructure. Likewise, Japan makes a significant contribution to investment, both commercially and through development banks. We endorse the concept behind these investments — of enhancing connectivity, in land, air, sea and cyber. The more connected our region, the more business opportunities there will be for the private sector, including Australian firms. To ensure these infrastructure investments are cost-effective and economically viable, competition, transparency and accountability in decision-making are of critical importance. We look forward to India liberalising its trade and investment regime further to realise its economic growth prospects and increase its influence in the region. India’s economic and strategic rise is widely welcomed by the region, and globally. India is also fully committed to supporting the role of key regional institutions and to strengthening collective leadership. While less developed than the extensive regional architecture in Southeast and East Asia, the regional architecture of the Indian Ocean is increasingly promoting coordinated approaches with South Asia, in response to shared interests and emerging challenges. India and Australia need to increase our bilateral cooperation and our collective efforts with other like-minded countries. Together we can shape a future region in which strong and effective rules and open markets deliver lasting peace and prosperity — free markets and free people.

81. K. Ullas Karanth: ‘We are slow to adopt science for conservation’

India’s leading tiger conservationist says the government should get out of the business of surveys and leave it to scientists and researchers K. Ullas Karanth, an expert on tigers, is the director of the Wildlife Conservation Society-India Programme. In the early 1990s, Mr. Karanth pioneered the technique of using camera traps as a method to get an estimate of India’s tiger population. Despite having been on the boards of several government organisations, he’s also a trenchant critic of government’s conservation policies. In an interview, he explains why India shouldn’t be complacent about the success of ‘Project Tiger’ and how several areas of wildlife conservation in the country continue to be neglected.

The National Tiger Conservation Authority (NTCA) has estimated a rise in the number of tigers killed in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year. Is it a matter of concern? As a rough estimate, there are, say, 3,000 tigers in India, 1,000 of whom are females capable of breeding. They breed on an average once in three years and

produce a litter of three. You are adding about 750-1000 tigers a year. Assuming that it’s a stable population, it should also roughly be the number (of tigers) dying. Moreover, we only detect a fraction of them (during census). Many die and you don’t even know they are dead. The real concern is whether these deaths are due to poaching and if they are being killed inside protected zones where the breeding is taking place. This has to be monitored carefully with rigorous methods, and, unfortunately, the government authorities don’t do a good job.

Right now, at least in government circles, there’s a great sense of optimism about the rise in tiger numbers. The latest government figures estimate 2,226 tigers, which translates to 60% of the world’s tiger population of about 3,890. What is the basis for this optimism? When we started ‘Project Tiger’ in the 1970s, we were supposed to have had about 2,000 tigers and after fifty years you have 3,000. Sure, it’s better than other countries but you can’t say you’ve done a great job.

What in your estimate would be a ‘great job’? Is there an ideal figure that we should have? We have roughly 3,00,000 sq. km of forest suitable for tigers and we have only about 10% of it capable of holding them naturally. This can be much higher…

Last year the government announced plans to double the tiger count by 2022… These are unrealistic statements. If we haven’t doubled them in the last 30 years, how can it be done in five years? It’s loose talk. To even begin achieving that, we have to expand the protected area network. It can’t be done by merely declaring areas where there are no tigers as tiger reserves. Several tiger reserves have no tigers. The NTCA (under the Environment Ministry) has become a bureaucracy, it seems. We have done a good job in channelling more funds and putting in sincere efforts for tiger conservation compared to other Asian countries. This was specific to the 1970s and ’80s when there was no money. Now things are actually quite easy. Rural incomes have gone up… Hardcore poachers don’t hunt as much as they used to.

As someone now outside the government system, what do you think should be done? Well, I don’t consider myself outside the system because I was on the National Wildlife Board and NTCA for many years and I have tried to change the way they function but I have failed. It’s an extremely rigid bureaucracy.

For one, we are spending too much money in too few sectors and that’s generally true of wildlife conservation in India, not only of tiger conservation. Some tiger reserves have budgets of ₹ 10 crore when the job can be done in ₹ 2 crore. This (lopsided funding) attracts the worst elements of bureaucracy to come here. Places like Bandipur, Nagarhole and Ranthambore reserves — these spectacular ones — are examples of those flush with funds and boast large tiger habitats. You need money for, say, relocation and resettling of foresters; but, beyond that, spending money on areas such as procuring water for reserves (during droughts) and mangroves. This needs to be fixed first.

Recently, the government has got the go-ahead from the National Board of Wildlife to interlink the Ken and Betwa rivers by building a dam and a canal. This will inundate a portion of the tiger reserve but the government holds that there are no tigers in that particular stretch of forest and that the water needs of the drought-prone Bundelkhand region have to be kept in mind too. We have 90% of the country for river interlinking. I’m saying: please think carefully before you undertake major projects in the remaining 10%. The fact is we have tapped out our hydropower potential and are going on developing more and more… Reserves like Panna are among our last few. We need more water- use efficiency and cannot just dam every river.

So having a dam over there is a threat to the tiger habitat? Well, it won’t wipe out the tigers there but the proposed reservoir is massive and Panna is among the few good reserves that we have. So we should have seen if there were alternative locations or if a suitable alternative site could have been established to compensate for the loss of forests.

Is poaching as big a threat to tigers — and other wildlife — as it was a few decades ago? Law enforcement has worked to an extent, else we wouldn’t have had any tigers left. However this efficiency is again uneven. In the Northeast, for instance, law enforcement is practically non-existent. This is due to a number of social and cultural factors. The attention should be over there rather than pumping more and more money into reserves where there are enough resources in place. In places such as Kaziranga, we have poachers who come in with AK-47s. In some States like Madhya Pradesh, forest officers even today don’t have a right to bear arms… this is ridiculous. What are they going to do with sticks? While the threat of poaching has dramatically reduced, in the east of India it’s still as bad as it was in the 1980s.

Is it because government has failed to step up policing in these regions? That and also due to cultural practices. A vast majority of the people hunt and also management systems don’t have adequate control… in Nagaland, as it’s well-known, government officials have to pay protection money to rebel groups. In such a social environment, how can wildlife conservation be prioritised? They have legal power but no effective power.

Do you think too much money is being spent on tiger conservation and not on other wildlife, say leopards? Leopards are smaller (than tigers) and spread over a much-wider area. I would disagree with “too much” money being spent on tigers but there is certainly a lack of attention to several other key species. These include, for instance, wolves and the bustard because they don’t share a tiger habitat. There’s some truth to it but not a black and white situation.

Is it ever possible that we would go back to less than 1000 tigers given developmental pressures in India? Are those days well past? My own sense is that we are well past those days. When I was growing up in the 1950s in the Western Ghats, tigers were gone. You wouldn’t see a track… the pressures were immense. Wage labour was ₹ 3 for a man, there was no protein in diets and people hunted because they needed meat, logging was rampant. Now the scenario has dramatically changed. The number of people dependent on land has come down, wages have improved, there are other sources of meat. You have chicken and don’t have to walk miles to hunt a civet. Today, there are developmental pressures, such as the Ken-Betwa project, but development has also served to reduce pressures on wildlife. However, that said, we are the 10th largest economy in the world, so much science… we should have at least 5,000-10,000 tigers and not pat our backs with 3,000.

What is a major obstacle to achieving this? That government is slow to adopt good science for conservation purposes. I invented the technique of using camera traps for counting tigers in 1993 and it’s only now that it has become a standard practice. It took a commission, chaired by the Prime Minister, where forest officials were ordered to stop the previous methods of estimation (such as counting pugmarks). However, it is still not being done the right way. They combine data from incomparable data sets. Basically, the government should get out of the business of surveys and leave it to scientists and researcher institutions. The other key hurdle is the lack of access to data. Organisations like the Wildlife Institute of India (an autonomous institute under the Environment Ministry and based in Dehradun) have unbelievable amount of money given to a dozen scientists. I know this as I

used to be on the Governing Board. They end up monopolising all research, from bustards to tigers... nothing substantial seems to result from it. However, researchers from non-governmental, reputable institutions such as the National Centre for Biological Sciences and the Indian Institute of Science face great difficulties to get permissions (to visit parts of forest) for research. Recently, a young scientist from IISc collected a dead skunk, or a similar animal, and he was arrested. It’s not just me alone but there is a general barrier to research.

82. Reluctant Trump recertifies Iran deal

Administration officials vows to toughen enforcement of the deal and increase pressure on Tehran U.S. President Donald Trump agreed on Monday to certify again that Iran is complying with an international nuclear agreement that he has strongly criticised, but only after hours of arguing with his top national security advisers, briefly upending a planned announcement as a legal deadline loomed. Mr. Trump has repeatedly condemned the deal brokered by President Barack Obama as a dangerous capitulation to Iran, but six months into his presidency, he has not abandoned it. The decision on Monday was the second time his administration certified Iran’s compliance, and aides said a frustrated Mr. Trump had told his security team that he would not keep doing so indefinitely. Administration officials announced the certification on Monday evening while emphasising that they intended to toughen enforcement of the deal, apply new sanctions on Iran for its “support of terrorism” and other “destabilising activities”, and negotiate with European partners to craft a broader strategy to increase pressure on Tehran.

Bad deal “The President has made very clear that he thought this was a bad deal — a bad deal for the United States,” Sean Spicer, the White House press secretary, told reporters at a briefing Monday before the decision was made. By law, the administration is required to notify Congress every 90 days whether Iran is living up to the deal, which limited its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of many international sanctions. Before the Monday deadline, the issue set off a sharp debate between the President and his own team, aides said. At an hour-long meeting on Wednesday, all the President’s major security advisers recommended he preserve the Iran deal for now. Among those who

spoke out were Secretary of State Rex Tillerson; Defense Secretary Jim Mattis; Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the National Security Adviser; and Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, according to an official who described internal discussions on the condition of anonymity. The official said Mr. Trump had spent 55 minutes of the meeting telling them he did not want to. Mr. Trump did not want to certify Iran’s compliance the first time around either, but was talked into it on the condition that his team come back with a new strategy to confront Tehran, the official said. Last week, advisers told the President they needed more time to work with allies and Congress. NYT

83. SC wonders whether privacy could be an absolute right

State cannot be prevented from imposing reasonable curbs, observes court Right to privacy is not absolute and cannot prevent the state from making laws imposing reasonable restrictions on citizens, the Supreme Court observed on Wednesday. The court said ‘right to privacy’ is in fact too ‘amorphous’ a term. To recognise privacy as a definite right, it has to first define it. But this would be nearly impossible as an element of privacy pervades all the fundamental rights enshrined in the Constitution. “How do we define privacy? What are its contents... Its contours? How can the state regulate privacy? What obligations do the state have to protect a person’s privacy?” Justice Chandrachud asked the petitioners, who have challenged the Aadhaar law on the ground that it affects the privacy of citizens. More harm The court said that an attempt to define the right to privacy may cause more harm than good. An exhaustive cataloguing by the court of what all constitutes privacy may limit the right itself, Justice Chandrachud observed. Justice Chandrachud is part of a nine-judge Constitution Bench led by Chief Justice of India J.S. Khehar examining a reference on the question whether privacy is sacred, fundamental and an inviolable right under the Constitution. ‘A common law’ Attorney-General K.K. Venugopal has already submitted in the Supreme Court that right to privacy is merely a common law right and the Constitution makers “consciously avoided” making it a part of the fundamental rights.

The decision of the nine-judge Bench on whether privacy is a fundamental right or not will be pivotal to the petitioners’ challenge that Aadhaar, which mandates citizens to part with their biometrics, is unconstitutional. In the day-long hearing before a packed courtroom, the Bench questioned the petitioners’ plea that right to privacy is non-negotiable. “If people have put themselves in the public realm using technology, is that not a surrender of their right to privacy?” Justice Chandrachud asked. The court’s questions came even as petitioners banked on Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement in Parliament that privacy is ‘probably’ a fundamental right and ‘part of individual liberty’. The statement was made on March 16, 2016 during the presentation of the Aadhaar Bill. Senior advocate Shyam Divan, for the petitioners, along with advocates Vipin Nair and P.B. Suresh, submitted that a person should have the right to ‘informational self- determination’. “In the Internet age, a person should have control on how much he should put forward and not be compelled,” Mr. Divan submitted. He said there is hardly any data protection in this digital age, leading to a compromise in privacy. But Justice Chandrachud observed that right to privacy cannot be linked to data protection. He said this is the age of ‘big data’, and instead of focussing on privacy, steps need to be taken to give statutory recognition to data protection. Senior advocate Gopal Subramanium, who opened the arguments for the petitioners, responded that the constitutional right to privacy does not mean mere protection from the state’s ingress.

84. Ministry, NITI Aayog moot privatisation of select services in district hospitals

Under proposed PPP model, private players will get 30-year leases on space in district hospitals As a part of a radical ‘privatisation project’, the Health Ministry and the NITI Aayog have developed a framework to let private hospitals run select services within district hospitals, on a 30-year lease. In a 140-page document, prepared in consultation with the World Bank, the government will be allowing “a single private partner or a single consortium of private partners” to bid for space in district level hospitals, “especially in tier 2 & 3 cities.” Under this Public Private Partnership (PPP), care for only three non- communicable diseases — cardiac disease, pulmonary disease, and cancer care — will be provided.

A model contract drawn up by NITI Aayog was sent out to State governments on June 5 by Amitabh Kant, Chief Executive Officer of NITI Aayog, giving the states a two-week window to furnish responses.

Draft document In a letter sent out last month, Mr. Kant adds that the draft document was prepared by a working group comprising representatives from the industry, Health Ministry and “representatives of a few states”. The policy document has come under sharp criticism for the Ministry’s failure to consult with key stakeholders from civil society and academia. Dr. Amit Sengupta, convener of the India chapter of the People’s Health Movement, said that the government was handing over critical public assets without gaining anything much in return. “NITI Aayog has no locus standi to make health policy, which is a state subject in India. The logic behind shutting down the Planning Commission was to ensure that policies are not centralised. NITI Aayog was to be an advisory body but here they are rushing through a policy that will essentially hand over public assets to the private sector, leading to a further dismantling of the public services available for free. If the government has to give seed money, share blood banks and other infrastructure, and still not be able to reserve beds for poor patients, it seems like we are not getting much in return,” said Dr. Sengupta. Mr. Kant, Health Minister JP Nadda and Health Secretary C.K. Mishra did not respond to emails and phone calls. According to the draft model contract, private hospitals will bid for 30-year leases over portions of district hospital buildings to set up 50- or 100-bed hospitals in smaller towns across the country. The State governments could lease up to five or six district hospitals within the State.

Viability gap funding Further, the State governments will give Viability Gap Funding (VGF), or one- time seed money, to private players to set up infrastructure within district hospitals. The private parties and State health departments will share ambulance services, blood banks, and mortuary services. A major concern about the policy is that under ‘principles’ of the financial structure, the document states that “there will be no reserved beds or no quota (sic) of beds for free services” in these facilities. “While it is clear that insured patients will receive free care, it is not at all clear what will happen to the vast majority of the population. In particular, how will these referral arrangements work? Whereas it says that states can, if they wish, refer 100% of patients for cashless care, it is a matter of concern that it

also proposes that States can set a cap on this entitlement. How would this work? What happens when the cap is reached? Would people only be able to access services for half the year, or less,” said Robert Yates, a leading expert on universal health coverage (UHC) and Project Director of the UHC Policy Forum at Chatham House, London. “What is particularly disturbing is the suggestion that only Below Poverty Line (BPL) patients and those in insurance schemes will be able to access free care. This would effectively exclude hundreds of millions of the Indian population from vital hospital services. “If implemented, these proposals could threaten to take India away from UHC, a key sustainable development goal, rather than towards it,” Mr. Yates said.

85. Target Tehran: on USA's sanctions on Iran

The Trump administration’s new sanctions on Iran threaten stability in West Asia The U.S. administration’s decision to slap sanctions on 18 Iranian individuals and entities on Tuesday, only a day after it certified to Congress that Tehran was compliant with the conditions of the nuclear deal, sums up its strategic resolve in taking on the Islamic Republic and the tactical dilemma it faces while doing so. It is no secret that President Donald Trump has been critical of the Iran nuclear deal, which ended the international sanctions on Tehran in return for curbing its nuclear programme. During the campaign, Mr. Trump had vowed to either kill or renegotiate the agreement. But as President, his options are limited with Iran remaining compliant with the terms of the agreement. More important, it is not a bilateral pact. The nuclear deal was reached among seven entities, including the U.S., Russia, Germany and Iran. Any unilateral move to withdraw from the agreement would hurt American interests as European countries are keen on expanding economic ties with Iran. This explains why a reluctant Mr. Trump has re-certified the deal twice since his inauguration in January. But on both occasions, he slapped additional sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile programme and “support for terrorism”, signalling that the Obama-era détente with Tehran was over. Administration officials are now saying Iran may be compliant with the terms but it is “unquestionably in default of the spirit” of the agreement. This is an overstretched argument, given that all international monitors say Iran remains committed to the deal. The logical next step of the nuclear agreement should have been an overall improvement in relations between the West and Tehran. Barack Obama had set the stage for such a policy overhaul and Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had responded to it, but Mr. Trump, in six months, has taken Washington’s Iran policy back to Republican neoconservatism. Besides sanctions, Mr. Trump has also endorsed the Saudi-

led Sunni bloc’s attempts to isolate Iran. His policy priorities are now clear. The administration will align with Saudi Arabia and Israel, continue to target Iran through sanctions and even try to undermine the nuclear deal in the long term. This is a dangerous turn of events since the historic moment of April 2, 2015, when the framework for the nuclear pact was announced . But this policy of containing Iran could backfire as Iran has already established itself as a rising regional power with substantial geopolitical clout. To stabilise Iraq, the U.S. needs Iran’s help. And there won’t be a long-lasting peace deal in Syria without Iran’s participation and cooperation. If the U.S. is serious about working towards peace and stability in West Asia, it should reciprocate Iran’s compliance with the nuclear deal, not punish it through additional sanctions. It should also act as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran, instead of taking sides in a destabilising cold war in West Asia.

86. The big squeeze on civil society: on the right to freedom of expression

The state must respect articulation of the politics of ‘voice’, and not just the politics of the ‘vote’ In May 2015, a host of civil society organisations wrote an open letter to the Prime Minister of India. The opening paragraph said: “We write to you, as members and as representatives of civil society organisations, and above all as Indian citizens, to express our deep concern on how civil society organisations and their donors are being labelled and targeted. Funds are frozen, intelligence reports are selectively released to paint NGOs in a poor light, and their activities are placed on a watch list. NGO projects have been shut down, donors are unable to support work, and there is an overall atmosphere of State coercion and intimidation in the space of civil society.” The letter continued: “Our work for the poor and the marginalised might involve questioning and protest decisions taken by the government, and this is our right. The government may not agree with what our policies are, from opposing nuclear power plants to campaigning to the right to food. Yet we expect the government to protect our democratic right to protest without being targeted as anti-national.” The open letter emphasised the violation of two democratic rights by the government: the right to freedom of expression including the right to protest, and the right to form associations.

Democracy beyond elections The issues raised by the letter have to be taken seriously. Civil society as the sphere of associational life forms the backbone of democracy. The right to participate in an activity we call politics is not, and cannot be, restricted to just

elections. Elections are but the starting point of the democratic project. Citizens have the right to scrutinise the work of their representatives, publicise acts of omission and commission, such as infringement of civil liberties, appropriation of tribal land for purposes of accumulation, failure of governments to provide a reasonable standard of life for the citizens, and engage with leaders on the troubled issue of political conflicts. The right to engage with, interrogate and criticise representatives is an integral part of democracy. Without this right democracy becomes farcical, an empty term, a phantom concept, an illusion. Democracy is ultimately about the rights of the people who vote representatives into power, to speak back to abuse of power. There has been too much emphasis on democracy as elections in India. The heat needs to be taken off elections. We need to be conscious of what happens between elections, given the opacity of government, given its awesome power over the lives and liberties of citizens, and given the propensity of every government to appropriate, accumulate and misuse power. This can be checked, provided we appreciate the competence of ordinary people to participate in political campaigns in civil society. The focus on civil society dates back to the 1980s, when political scientists began to speak of a ‘crisis of representation’. Citizens across the world had shifted from older and traditional forms of representation, such as political parties and trade unions, to ‘newer’ modes: social movements, informal citizen groups and non-governmental organisations.

Rise of civil society The worldwide shift to civil society was catalysed by the mobilisation of people against Stalinist states in Eastern and Central Europe in the 1970s and the 1980s. Citizens turned their back on unresponsive and authoritarian states and formed associations, such as reading clubs and soup kitchens, in a metaphorical space outside the state. This space they called civil society. The power of popular mobilisation was in full view in 1989, when some very powerful states fell like the proverbial house of cards before agitating but peaceful crowds assembled on the streets. And the term civil society came on to everyone’s lips, as a companion concept to democracy. In India, by the late 1970s, the decline of all institutions gave rise to several mass-based political movements and grassroots activism. The anti-caste movement, the struggle for gender justice, the movement for civil liberties, for a sound environment, and against mega development projects that have displaced thousands of poor tribals and hill dwellers, the movement against child labour, for the right to information, for shelter, for primary education, and for food security have mobilised in civil society. The fact that vital issues related to livelihoods, to the fulfilment of basic needs, and for justice were not taken up by political parties but by civil society organisations acted to propel

hopes in civil society as an alternative to the non-performing state and an unresponsive party system. For unlike the Scandinavian experience, in India trade unions are yoked to political parties and represent a minuscule percentage of the workforce. Unions have shown little interest either in the welfare of the unorganised sector which constitutes 94% of the working class, or in the welfare of peasants. And political parties tend to think of social rights as an electoral/populist ploy rather than a basic right of citizens. In the first decade of the 21st century, civil society organisations stepped in to represent the interests of the most deprived and the most marginalised in the country. Mobilisation proved effective, and the enactment of social rights followed a number of civil society campaigns, the filing of Public Interest Litigations in the Supreme Court, and the onset of a new phase of judicial activism.

On the back foot Today, we see the marginalisation of civil society and the sidelining of a rights- based approach to social policy. The Bharatiya Janata Party-led government at the Centre has no use for civil society activism or the politics of dissent. The government, along with the front organisations of the religious right, is determined to take over the political space as well as civil society. The perspective bodes ill for the future of democracy. From 2004 to 2014, civil society organisations came together to press upon the government the right of citizens to social goods. Once laws granting the right to information, to food, and to work had been passed, activists kept watch on acts of omission and commission, and issued citizen reports. Today, social security plans are announced without corresponding mobilisation of, consultation with or intervention of civil society organisations. On the contrary, the government has come down heavily on organisations by blocking their bank accounts, by putting a stop to funding, and by casting aspersions on their ability to represent the people of India. In many instances, non- governmental organisations such as Greenpeace have been projected as being anti-national. The government has made determined efforts to shrink the space available to civil society. The rather sharp reversal in the political fortunes of civil society compels us to recognise that civil society cannot be conceptualised independently of the state. A democratic state needs a democratic civil society. But a democratic civil society also needs a democratic state; a state that respects the politics of ‘voice’ as opposed to the politics of the ‘vote’. If the government respects the voice of citizens through the grant of the right to freedom of expression and association, it should be enabling civil society to articulate aspirations, critically engage with the state, and issue social report cards. The promises of democracy can only be realised through collective action in civil society. If the state constrains

civil society space, democracy is truncated, and citizens are seen only as voters. They are deprived of status.

87. BITs and pieces of trade with Israel

An India-Israel investment treaty would have to reconcile investment protection with the state’s right to regulate Many pundits in India continue to gaze at the India-Israel relationship through the lens of Palestine. However, some argue that it is critical to de-hyphenate India’s relations with Israel and Palestine, a process that began in 1992 when New Delhi established diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv and which has gathered steam since then. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel earlier this month made this de-hyphenation blatant and conspicuous.

Enormous trade potential Growing trade and investment relations are a strong reason to study India- Israel relations on their own merit. Bilateral merchandise trade increased from $200 million in 1992 to around $4 billion in 2016, an increase of 2,000% in 25 years. Cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from Israel, from April 2000 to March 2017, stood at $122 million. While these are low, constituting only 0.04% of total FDI inflows to India, there is enormous potential for Israeli investment in fields such as renewable energy and water management (drip irrigation and desalination). Defence production, which is at the heart of the ‘Make in India’ campaign, is another area with significant potential for Israeli investment, a move that will help India save billions of dollars it currently spends on importing weapons from Israel. Israel is the third largest supplier of arms to India after Russia and the U.S. Investment in defence production will also give a fillip to domestic manufacturing, reduce dependence on bureaucratic state-owned ordnance factories and bring in new technology — an example being the recently set up plant in Madhya Pradesh, between India’s Punj Lloyd and Israel Weapon Industries, to manufacture small arms. Boosting trade and investment ties found explicit mention in the India-Israel joint statement during Mr. Modi’s visit. To encourage bilateral investments, Mr. Modi and his Israeli counterpart, Benjamin Netanyahu, also agreed to conduct negotiations on a bilateral investment treaty (BIT).

Negotiating a BIT Is an India-Israel BIT possible? In 1996, India and Israel signed a BIT. However, this was reportedly terminated by India when it unilaterally discontinued 58 BITs recently. For a new BIT to be negotiated, both sides will have to start afresh. However, there are challenges given the many fundamental differences Israel and India have on BITs, as outlined in their

Model BITs of 2003 and 2016, respectively. The first is on the investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provision that allows foreign investors to bring claims against a host state for alleged treaty breaches at international arbitral forums. Foreign investors prefer international arbitration — which is faster and independent — over litigating in domestic courts. The Israeli model gives an investor the choice to submit any investment dispute with a state to international arbitration if not resolved within six months through negotiations. The Indian model imposes many procedural and jurisdictional restrictions on an investor’s right to bring an ISDS claim. These include a foreign investor having to litigate in domestic courts for five years before pursuing a claim under international law. These requirements make it very difficult for a foreign investor to make efficient use of the ISDS provision. Second, Israel’s model provides a broad asset-based definition of foreign investment that covers both FDI and portfolio investment. The Indian model of 2016 defines investment narrowly as an enterprise (with its assets) that has to possess certain characteristics of investment including the investment having ‘significance for the development’ — words not defined in the BIT — of the host country. Third, the Israeli model contains a broad most favoured nation (MFN) provision — a cornerstone of non-discrimination in international economic relations — which is missing in the Indian model. The absence of MFN, from Israel’s perspective, would mean that its businesses would have no remedy under international law if India were to discriminate against it, say, by offering greater incentives to another defence manufacturer over an Israeli one. Fourth, the Indian model excludes taxation altogether from the purview of the BIT. Thus, the foreign investor cannot bring an ISDS claim even if taxes imposed are confiscatory, discriminatory or unfair. However, in the Israeli model, taxation-related measures are recognised as an exception only to MFN and national treatment provisions. Foreign investors can still challenge taxation-related measures for violating other BIT provisions such as the fair and equitable treatment or expropriation. India’s recent record in administering its taxation laws has made foreign investors jittery. The World Investment Report 2017 issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development also points out that tax-related concerns are a deterrent for some foreign investors to invest in India. Thus, Israeli investors will not be comfortable if taxation is completely outside BIT’s purview.

In a nutshell In sum, the Indian position on BITs is very pro-state, offering limited rights and protection to foreign investors. The Israeli position is the opposite. An India- Israel BIT looks difficult till both sides move away from their stated positions. Both sides should work towards having a BIT that reconciles investment protection with a state’s right to regulate.

88. Think beyond loan waivers

Strengthening the repayment capacity of farmers by improving and stabilising their income is the only way to keep them out of distress Indian agriculture is characterised by low scale and low productivity. About 85% of the operational landholdings in the country are below 5 acres and 67% farm households survive on an average landholding of one acre. More than half of the area under cultivation does not have access to irrigation. Agriculture income generated at average size of landholding is not adequate to meet farmers’ needs. The problem is exacerbated by weather and market risks. According to the latest National Sample Survey on Situation Assessment Survey of Agricultural Households (NSS-SAS), 13.9% farm households experienced negative return from crop production during 2012-13. Non-farm income comprised 40% of the income of farm households, but access to non-farm sources of income is highly skewed as about 40% of farm households reported zero income from such sources.

Increasing debt burden Modern agriculture requires investment in farm machinery and use of purchased inputs like seed, fertiliser, agri-chemicals, diesel and hired labour. Most often, savings generated from unremunerative crop enterprise are inadequate for such investments. Rising expenses on health, education, social ceremonies and non-food items put additional financial demand on farm families. Consequently, majority of the farmers have to take loans from institutional or non-institutional sources or both. The share of institutional loans disbursed during a year to agriculture and allied sectors has risen from 8.9% of the value of output in 2000-01 to 31.4% in 2015-16. The amount of short-term institutional loans for agriculture exceeds the total cost of inputs including hired labour at an all-India level and in many States. This indicates that a part of crop loans is likely spent on non-agricultural purposes. A more worrisome fact out of NSS surveys on Investment and Debt (NSS-I&D) is that the loans taken by cultivators from non-institutional sources, which involve high interest rate, is rising faster than from institutional sources. These indicators point to a worrying development — much of the growth in household demand in rural India has been debt-ridden and not supported by growth in income. Recently a few States like Uttar Pradesh , Maharashtra , Punjab and Karnataka have responded to farm distress by rolling out farm loan waiver schemes as a measure of immediate relief to those farmers who qualify certain criteria. The demand for such measures is spreading to other States too.

The ultimate goal of farm loan waiver is to lessen the debt burden of distressed and vulnerable farmers and help them qualify for fresh loans. The success of the loan waiver lies on the extent to which the benefits reach the needy farmers. Loan waivers suffer from several drawbacks in this respect. First, it covers only a tiny fraction of farmers. According to 2012-13 NSS-SAS, 48% of the agricultural households did not have any outstanding loan. Further, out of the indebted agricultural households, about 39% borrowed only from non-institutional sources. The farmers investing from their own savings and those borrowing from non-institutional sources are equally vulnerable to weather and market risks. But all such households are outside the purview of loan waiver. Second, it provides only a partial relief to the indebted farmers as about half of the institutional borrowing of a cultivator is for non-farm purposes. Third, in many cases, one household has multiple loans either from different sources or in the name of different family members, which entitles it to multiple loan waiving. Fourth, loan waiving excludes agricultural labourers who are even weaker than cultivators in bearing the consequences of economic distress. Fifth, it severely erodes the credit culture, with dire long-run consequences to the banking business. Sixth, the scheme is prone to serious exclusion and inclusion errors, as evidenced by the Comptroller and Auditor General’s (CAG) findings in the Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme, 2008. According to the CAG report, 13.46% of the accounts which were actually eligible for the benefits under the scheme were not considered by the lending institutes while preparing the list of eligible farmers. On the other hand, in 8.5% of the cases, the beneficiaries were not eligible for either debt waiver or debt relief but were granted the benefits. Further, 34.28% of the beneficiaries were not issued debt relief certificates which would have entitled them to fresh loans. Beside these errors in implementation, the loan waiver as a concept excludes most of the farm households in dire need of relief and includes some who do not deserve such relief on economic grounds. Apart from above drawbacks, such schemes have serious implications for other developmental expenditure, having a much larger multiplier effect on the economy. For instance, loan waiver may cost Uttar Pradesh at least ₹36,000 crore, which is 4.4 times the State’s capital expenditure of ₹8,191 crore (Budget estimate) in agriculture, including irrigation and flood management, in 2016- 17. A similar amount spent on improvement of agriculture infrastructure and other developmental activities would create a base for future growth and development of the sector. It appears that loan waiving can provide a short-term relief to a limited section of farmers; it has a meagre chance of bringing farmers out of the vicious cycle of indebtedness. There is no concrete evidence on reduction in agrarian distress following the first spell of all-India farm loan waiver in 2008. In the

longer run, strengthening the repayment capacity of the farmers by improving and stabilising their income is the only way to keep them out of distress.

Sustainable solutions For providing immediate relief to the needy farmers, a more inclusive alternative approach is to identify the vulnerable farmers’ based on certain criteria and give an equal amount as financial relief to the vulnerable and distressed families. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh 23.2% (41.87 lakh) agricultural households (180.49 lakh) are estimated to have income below poverty line. With ₹36,000 crore, each of these households can be given ₹85,980. This looks to be a more inclusive approach and provides farmers flexibility to spend this money. In our view, the sustainable solution to indebtedness and agrarian distress is to raise income from agricultural activities and enhance access to non-farm sources of income. The low scale of farms necessitates that some cultivators move from agriculture to non-farm jobs. Improved technology, expansion of irrigation coverage, and crop diversification towards high-value crops are appropriate measures for raising productivity and farmers’ income. All these require more public funding and support and there is a danger of these getting adversely affected by resources diverted towards loan waiver. Another major source of increase in farmers’ income is remunerative prices for farm produce. This requires removal of old regulations and restrictions on agriculture to enable creation of a liberalised environment for investment, trading and marketing. Agrarian distress and farmers’ income will be addressed much better if States undertake and sincerely implement long-pending reforms in the agriculture sector with urgency.

89. Conserving water, the ancient way

Tamil Nadu’s temple inscriptions provide some handy drought- management advice Can droughts experienced centuries ago teach us ways to handle the present ones? They can if we care to look in the right place — for instance, the walls of temples in Tamil Nadu. Temples today are primarily religious monuments, occasionally visited for their art and architecture. However, in the past, their walls served as record-keepers. Inscriptions on Tamil Nadu’s temples record administrative and social decisions from a time when they were a seat of authority for the local community. Inscriptions connected to irrigation in Tamil Nadu concern two broad zones, the Cauvery delta and the Tamirabarani delta. The Cauvery delta was more fertile and larger — with more tributaries — but the number of drought-related inscriptions here are more in number than the Tamirabarani delta. About

1,000 years ago, during the zenith of the Chola power, irrigation in the Cauvery delta was through the many tributaries of the river and smaller canals. Reverence for the resource The Tamirabarani region was much more water-starved and gives us astonishing data on what we need to do. Inscriptions from 700-1,000 years ago, connected to water conservation in temples at places like Mannarkovil, Cheranmahadevi, Tirukurungudi, Kovilpatti, and Pudukkottai, attest to a few aspects. Temple inscriptions were always documents connected with the sale, transfer and maintenance of irrigated lands. Today, we consider water to be a right. However, in the older traditions, it was a representation of god that residents were duty-bound to protect and conserve. Further, the respect for water transcended the public sphere and was part of individual homes as well. As recently as the 1970s, I remember older women drawing water from the wells pouring the first pot back into them. In the Pandya empire, water conservation was a completely local affair. The entire community, through the elected temple mahasabha , managed it. This meant that there was constant supervision, ownership and responsibility. All systems and processes were sustained through an emotional connection with the resource. Water from the Tamirabarani and the Vaigai rivers was taken through channels into formations like eri s (small lakes) and per-eri s (bigger lakes). Channels created square parcels of lands called sadiram s and they were subdivided into smaller padagam s of land, all of which had numbers. There were as many as 20-24 padagam s in a sadiram . They were taxed differently based on how fertile they were — a system far more complex and farmer-friendly than today! Care for the local terrain Every tank had multiple weirs, always built in consonance with the local terrain, to drain out excess water. Using these, farmers irrigated the fields. There were complex calculations on allocation by turns ( murai ) and hours of supply ( nir naligai ). The interests of the boatmen in the lower estuaries and ports were also taken care of so that there was enough water there to permit them to bring boats up the river. The upper reaches had a higher number of large tanks which fed water into the smaller ones, tanks and ponds before it finally drained into the sea. As a result, during floods, the limits were rarely breached, and during droughts, each tank had water. Maintenance of the tanks through desilting and enlargement and building and maintaining of new canals was a continuous process. More than a hundred inscriptions across the region deal exclusively with this. Fishing rights for the lakes helped defray maintenance costs. Revenues were high enough for the

excess profits to be deployed in building larger halls in temples that could be used for public functions. In Srivilliputhur, every able-bodied man was expected to participate in such operations. Some inscriptions show that maintenance was a local responsibility and not that of the king. In fact, many capital-intensive projects were funded by the dancing women of temples. Many inscriptions also talk of reclaimed lands and tax concessions provided following natural disasters and how, after a disaster, the community quickly acted together to set the system right. True, the inscriptions don’t paint a utopian world. They talk about disputes related to water sharing and taxes; deaths that happened during desilting; and fights over excess water for more rounds of crops. However, these disputes were quickly resolved and in a way that the river or tank was respected. Today, we may have advanced in technology but we could pick some best practices from long ago.

90. Plastic realities

We need to urgently and drastically cut the use of plastics Plastics had their origin in cellulose derivatives. The first synthetic plastic was called bakelite and was derived from fossil fuels. During the Second World War, large-scale production of plastic was directed towards the war effort. However, with the declaration of peace, there was a need to do something about the installed capacity. And so, in 1946, Tupperware company came into being. At present, the use of plastic has become so ubiquitous that even birds, animals and fish have unwittingly made it part of their diet. Disposed plastic degrades slowly, its chemicals getting leached into surroundings. Further, it breaks down into smaller components over time, entering our food chain and landing up on our plates. According to a 2014 report of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), “the overall natural capital cost of plastic use in the consumer goods sector each year is $75 billion”. This will only go up with the rising consumerism and the increasing use of plastic. According to a recent article in The Guardian, a million plastic bottles are bought across the world every minute. However, plastic bottles are not the only problem. There are smaller forms of plastic, no greater in size than 5 mm, called microbeads, first patented in 1972 for use in cleansers. In the 1990s, they began to replace natural material like ground almonds, oatmeal and sea salt in the area of cosmetics. Many cosmetics and toiletry products — ranging from facewashes to toothpastes —

use it today. Their abrasive nature lends itself to use in industries such as petroleum, textiles, printing and automobile. An article in the journal Marine Pollution Bulletin states that the microbeads are used as exfoliants and that, in a 150-ml bottle, there will be anywhere between 1,37,000 and 28,00,000 microparticles. The Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS) has recently classified the non- biodegradable microbeads as unsafe for use in consumer products through a draft notification titled, “Classification for cosmetic raw materials and adjuncts, Part 2: List of raw materials generally not recognised as safe for use in cosmetics.” Countries such as the U.S., Canada and the Netherlands have already put in place regulations to stop the use of microbeads in personal-care products. The sooner India adopts such regulations, the better. The use of plastic in our daily life should be reduced even as their recycling is increased. This has to involve everyone, from the manufacturer to the user to the waste collector and the recycling authority. We as a society need to create an ecosystem that reduces the use of plastic and prevents its escape into the external environment.

91. Panel for bigger Indian role in Afghanistan

U.S. Senate committee says Indian assistance could include logistical support, planning & joint training India has a “critical role” to play in breaking the stalemate in Afghanistan, the U.S. Senate Committee on Armed Forces has said, calling for enhancing trilateral cooperation among Afghanistan, India and the U.S. In a report accompanying the National Defence Authorisation Act (NDAA) 2018, the committee also called for enhancing the overall defence cooperation between the U.S. and India, and “eventually joint naval patrol of the Indian Ocean.” The Senate Committee also pulled up the Department of Defence for not making faster progress in improving cooperation between India and the U.S. While acknowledging improvement in partnership, the report said the committee was “concerned by a growing gap between the overarching goals of the bilateral defence relationship and the Department’s implementation of these objectives.” Refined approach The committee specifically noted the delay by the Pentagon in designating an individual within the Department to “coordinate and expedite bilateral defence cooperation,” as required by last year’s NDAA. The lawmakers’ body said

“appointing such an individual would bring a refined approach to prioritising defence cooperation and aligning it with missions like maritime awareness and anti-submarine warfare, and eventually joint naval patrol of the Indian Ocean.” India has been less than enthusiastic about joint patrol and cautious while expanding cooperation with the Afghan government. India has a strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan, but its military component remains limited. “The committee is concerned by the current stalemate in Afghanistan, and believes that the United States should leverage the capabilities of allies and partners to more effectively secure regional stability and security. The committee believes that the United States needs to recommit to the fight in Afghanistan and that India, as a major defence partner of the United States and a contributor to regional security, has a critical role to play in this effort,” the report said. Targeted support It noted that John W. Nicholson, Commander of U.S. Forces in Afghanistan, has highlighted “significant short-term material and training needs within the Afghan Air Force, and has personally urged India to provide this targeted support to meet urgent gaps.” The report said the assistance could include logistical support, joint training, combined military planning, threat analysis, intelligence, materiel, and maintenance support for Afghan National Defence and Security Forces for humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, security assistance. The report noted the “positive adjustment of U.S. export controls for defence articles sold to India” after last year’s NDAA, but called for faster progress and focused approach. It said the 2012 Defence Technology and Trade Initiative has six ‘‘pathfinder’’ initiatives, which need to be more in alignment with the Joint Strategic Vision between the two countries.

92. Kovind enters Rashtrapati Bhavan with big win

Cross-voting reported in many States where many Opposition members favour NDA nomineeIndia’s 14th President gets 65.6% of votes tobeat joint Opposition candidate Meira KumarBecomes second Dalit to occupy the post afterlate K.R. Narayanan; BJP gets its first Rashtrapati Ram Nath Kovind was on Thursday declared elected as India’s 14th President polling 65.6% of the vote defeating the Opposition’s joint candidate, former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar, who secured 34% of the vote. Mr. Kovind will be the second Dalit President of India after late President K.R. Narayanan but, more significantly, the first from politically significant Uttar

Pradesh and the first person from the BJP to hold the office of President since Independence. Speaking to the press after returning officer for the poll, Anoop Mishra, declared him elected, Mr. Kovind said it was an “emotional moment” for him. “I never dreamed of this position nor was it a goal. My election to this post is a message to all those who discharge their duties with honesty and integrity,” he said, promising to uphold the Constitution of India and follow the policy of Sarve Bhavantu Sukheenaha or peace and prosperity to all. The voting for the poll had been held on Monday, and counting began in Parliament House on Thursday morning continuing up to early evening. The total number of MPs and MLAs who cast their votes was 4851, bearing a combined value of 1090300. However, with 77 votes being declared invalid — 21 from Parliament alone — the total number of valid votes was 4774, bearing a combined value of 1069358. Mr. Kovind polled 2930 of these votes — bearing a value of 702044 — and Ms. Kumar 1844 votes — with a value of 367314. Highest vote value The value of each vote of an MP was 708. Among the States, each vote in Uttar Pradesh had the highest value of 208, while each vote from Sikkim had the lowest value of seven. Mr. Kovind got the highest number of votes – 335 – from U.P. and the lowest – just 1 – from Kerala. Ms. Kumar secured the highest number of votes – 273 – from West Bengal and drew a blank in Andhra Pradesh. The polling was marked by cross-voting in various States where many Opposition members favoured Mr. Kovind. According to figures available, cross-voting took place in Gujarat, Tripura, Goa, Delhi and Maharashtra in favour of Mr. Kovind. As many as 11 Congress MLAs appeared to have voted for Mr. Kovind in Gujarat, a State which is to go for Assembly polls at the end of the year. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first to wish the President-elect, tweeting out pictures taken 20 years ago at a wedding in Mr. Kovind’s family and a more recent one with Mr. Kovind and his family at the prime ministerial residence, 7, Lok Kalyan Marg. Mr. Modi also praised the Opposition’s candidate for her campaign which was in the “spirit of democratic ethos, and values” which “we are all very proud of.” Mr. Kovind will be sworn in as President on July 25 at a ceremony in the Central Hall of Parliament.

93. What’s the problem in giving data to state: SC

‘Same info shared with private players’ If 99% of citizens are ‘unconcerned’ about sharing personal data with private players , how is it qualitatively different if the State has the same information, Supreme Court judge, Justice D.Y. Chandrachud, asked on Thursday.

“Most citizens are unconcerned about where or how their personal data is used. You say there are 35 crore Internet users and 18 crore telephone users, but 99% of people are not concerned... When you operate your iPad with your thumbprint, your data is public...” Justice Chandrachud, part of a nine-judge Bench led by CJI J.S. Khehar, orally observed. “Right to privacy does not stand on the pedestal of secrecy, it holds forth from the pedestal of dignity,” advocate Sajan Poovayya submitted.

94. Half of HIV-infected get treatment now: UNAIDS

India’s pharma sector has a major role in helping to meet global target for access to medicines, says report For the first time since the global onset of the HIV/AIDS epidemic, the scales have tipped in favour of patients. The latest UNAIDS report, released on Thursday, reveals that more than half of all People Living with HIV (PLHIV) now have access to HIV treatment. Further, globally AIDS-related deaths have almost halved since 2005. “We met the 2015 target of 15 million people on treatment, and we are on track to double that number to 30 million and meet the 2020 target,” said Michel Sidibé, Executive Director of UNAIDS. “We will continue to scale up to reach everyone in need and honour our commitment of leaving no one behind.” As of last year, 19.5 million of the 36.7 million HIV+ patients had access to treatment. Deaths caused by AIDS have fallen from 1.9 million in 2005 to 1 million in 2016. New infections in India The bad news is that the majority of the cases — nearly 95 per cent of the cases in 2016 — were concentrated in just 10 countries, India being one of them. India has 2.1 million people living with HIV, with 80,000 new infections annually, as of 2016. In 2005, the annual incidence was 1,50,000 people. “India is the country where most new HIV infections are occurring in the Asia- Pacific region. While India has made big progress with new infections dropping significantly, the emergence of HIV in some locations that were earlier considered ‘not high-burden’ areas is a cause for concern.,” said Eamonn Murphy, Director, UNAIDS Regional Support Team for Asia-Pacific. While the world seems to be on track to reach the global target of 30 million people on treatment by 2020, access to medicines remains a major barrier and India plays a special role. The report states that “although important progress has been made in improving access to medicines for people living with HIV, insufficient availability and poor affordability of essential medicines in low- and middle-income countries remain major barriers.

Averting market failures Actions focused on the intersections between intellectual property rights, innovation, and public health are vitally important for resolving market failures in medicine development and manufacture, unmet needs for research and development, and pricing. This is especially true in light of the concentration of the generic pharmaceutical industry in India, and the global AIDS response’s continued reliance on the Indian industry, which supplied nearly 90% of antiretroviral medicines in low- and middle-income countries in 2015”. The report, Ending AIDS: Progress towards the 90–90–90 target, is the annual scorecard for progress. In 2016, 1.8 million people became infected with HIV. While this is a drastic decline from the peak of the epidemic in 1997 when 3.2 million got infected, experts maintain that since 2010, the decline in new infections has only been 16%. Going by this trend, the global target of reducing the figure to 500,000 a year by 2020 — adopted as a global target by UNAIDS in 2013 — seems unattainable. The idea behind the 90-90-90 target is to diagnose 90% of people who are HIV positive; get 90% of the diagnosed HIV+ people on antiretroviral treatment, and 90% of those on antiretrovirals should be virally suppressed. This is attained when an HIV+ patient’s viral load reaches an undetectable level, curbing transmission.

95. The new President, Ram Nath Kovind

It is Ram Nath Kovind’s use of discretionary powers that will define his presidency As India’s 14th President, Ram Nath Kovind will be expected to play the important role of safeguarding the spirit of the Constitution and the foundations of our parliamentary democracy. Unlike his immediate predecessor Pranab Mukherjee, Mr. Kovind moves into Rashtrapati Bhavan after a stint in a Raj Bhavan. Arguably, it is a Raj Bhavan, and not the office of the Vice- President, that is the best preparatory ground for the non-ceremonial duties of the President, particularly those that may involve invoking the office’s discretionary power. After general elections that produced hung Lok Sabhas, former Presidents R. Venkataraman, Shankar Dayal Sharma and K.R. Narayanan adopted different procedures to decide who would have the first shot at forming the government. Venkataraman and Sharma invited the leader of the single largest party, with varying results. While Rajiv Gandhi declined

Venkataraman’s invitation in 1989, A.B. Vajpayee accepted Sharma’s invitation in 1996, only to see his government last no more than 13 days. In 1998, Narayanan ascertained the support Mr. Vajpayee had before calling him to form the government. Like these predecessors, Mr. Kovind may be involved in situations with no set precedent. Also, while the use and abuse of Article 356, and the imposition of President’s Rule, are now monitored closely by the higher courts, as President he will necessarily have to use his own discretion should the Union Cabinet send such a recommendation. On contentious pieces of legislation, he can be extremely influential when he counsels caution, using his moral authority and the weight of his public office. Mr. Kovind secured an impressive victory, receiving more than the number of votes pledged to him, signifying acceptance levels that go beyond the NDA’s political spectrum. Once the names of the candidates for the election were known, much of the interest centred on the support he would garner from Opposition parties not affiliated to the Congress. That he did win substantially more votes vindicates the faith the BJP’s leadership placed on his candidature. To the BJP’s credit, it did not choose a dyed-in-saffron member of the Sangh Parivar. Mr. Kovind’s candidature may have been a strategic political compromise. On the one hand it ensured the wider support that the BJP wanted and, on the other, it wasn’t entirely politically neutral, not enough anyway to allow the Congress or the Left parties the satisfaction of a consensus candidate. He is a Dalit, and his nomination was intended by the BJP to signal a socially inclusive agenda. But as President, Mr. Kovind will have to rise above political and social identities. He will be called upon to apply his mind and distinguish between settled conventions and questionable precedents in arriving at decisions. The office of the President was not conceived as merely a ceremonial post. The discretionary powers that he has demand a delicate balance without slipping into being either an unthinking rubber stamp or an overzealous interventionist.

96. Bigger, better? - on ONGC's purchase of HPCL

It is premature to celebrate the consolidation of ONGC and HPCL The Union Cabinet’s in-principle nod to the purchase of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited by the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation has cleared the decks for India to have its own oil giant. The decision follows the Finance Minister’s announcement in this year’s budget that the government would seek to merge public sector oil companies to create larger entities. The acquisition is expected to be consummated over the next year with ONGC buying the government’s 51% stake in HPCL. This would offer ONGC access to HPCL’s refining and retail facilities. The rationale is that a bigger, vertically integrated oil company can help India achieve the scale required to compete at the global level, and help better absorb oil price shocks. In fact, it is expected that the

Cabinet may decide to consolidate more public sector oil companies. In addition, the sale of HPCL could contribute almost Rs.30,000 crore to the exchequer and fulfil more than a third of the year’s disinvestment target. All this, of course, makes the ONGC-HPCL deal look like a boon for the government, the oil sector and the overall economy. There are questions about how ONGC will find the cash to complete the deal and how it can bypass an open offer to minority shareholders, but these may be the least of its worries. Business combinations, even those that strictly involve private players, are potentially destructive to shareholder wealth. Notably, the merger of Air India and Indian Airlines in 2007 failed to realise the expected benefits of scale and synergy from a larger enterprise. ONGC Chairman Dinesh K. Sarraf has spoken of the benefits of synergy from the deal with HPCL. But ONGC’s history of capital allocation, which has come under much criticism from analysts, gives very little reason to support such optimism. The Comptroller and Auditor General had in 2011 criticised it for the expensive acquisition of the U.K.-based Imperial Energy Corporation on unrealistic projections about returns. The CAG exposed various other inefficiencies in ONGC’s operations in subsequent years. Not surprisingly, ONGC’s profits have dropped significantly over the years, and in 2015 it lost its place as the most profitable Indian company. All this is reflected in ONGC’s lacklustre share price performance over the last few years compared to HPCL’s multi-bagger returns. Analysts have also been concerned about whether ONGC will benefit from HPCL’s efficient work culture or end up diluting it. Given that public sector consolidation has been adopted as official policy now, these are questions that merit serious consideration. The lofty goal of creating profitable international oil behemoths cannot be achieved unless they conform to the basic rules of business.

97. Gain in translation

Even as India is nearing its next Census, the language data collected in 2011 have still not been made public Among the things that make humans a distinct species, the ability to use language made of verbal icons ranks very high. The ability to speak is not nature’s gift. Human communities had to spend several millennia to acquire it through an enormous amount of experimentation and an unparalleled amount of mental work. It would be entirely appropriate to view language as a cultural production and not god-given. A given language, therefore, needs to be seen as cultural heritage, an intangible possession. A cultural possession From this perspective, the community’s right to its language becomes a non- negotiable right to cultural possession. Similarly, the state’s obligation to secure and protect this right too becomes a non-negotiable duty. UNESCO has

been promoting the idea of language as an inalienable cultural right. It has already built it into the charter of sustainable development goals. India is a formal signatory to the charter. Against this background, it appears not just strange but even shocking that the information related to language data continues to be kept away from the public gaze. The language data of the 2011 have still not been made available to the citizens who use those languages. During the colonial times, language was treated as a ‘sensitive’ subject and was seen as a cause for breakdown of law and order. In our time, the subject continues to be handled by the Home Ministry. And it does not view sharing information with citizens as any important priority. The concealment of language data by the Census office is not a new phenomenon. It dates back to the seventies. The last time a complete list of languages claimed during the Census as ‘mother tongues’ was disclosed was in 1961. The list had 1,652 names. One must remember here that every ‘label’ that turns up as ‘mother tongue’ may not actually be a ‘language’. Duplications with slight variations occur, and often spurious names crop up. Probably, about 1,100 of those labels were language names. From 1971 onwards, the Census decided, for reasons never placed in the public domain and without any informed debate about the decision, to disclose names only of those languages which had more than 10,000 speakers. The result was that the list of 1971 had only 108 language names, as against the 1,652 a decade ago. No one at all has ever said if we owe an explanation about the erased 1,544 languages. There are believed to be around 6,000 living languages in the world. This estimate is made by various international agencies and research bodies by counting 500 languages to India’s credit. A simple calculation will show that the Census decision of 1971 affected the fate of nearly one-fifth of the world’s languages. The 2001 language data have a mixed list of 22 scheduled languages and a hundred other languages. The list is mixed as several languages are lumped together to produce it. For instance, a good dozen distinct languages are lumped together under the caption ‘Bhili’. In 1991 and 2001, at least the data were disclosed. The 2011 data are not known even when we are now getting close to the next Census, of 2021. Does knowing or not knowing language data have any implication for the life of the ordinary citizen? It obviously does not if the speaker belongs to a linguistic majority. But if one belongs to the communities that are linguistically minority communities, the implications are far too serious to be ignored. When a community knows that its language has no future, it starts neglecting its language and prepares for a language migration, accelerating the demise of that language. The findings of the People’s Linguistic Survey of India indicate

that between 1961 and 2011, nearly 250 Indian languages disappeared altogether. If the neglect of our smaller languages continues, it is likely that within the next two to three decades another 300 languages will disappear. Does it really matter, one would say, if out of the existing 800-odd languages, 600 or 700 disappear? What use are they, and are they not a burden to the nation? These questions are easy to utter, but they are, it is necessary to point out, thoughtless questions. Have we not learnt anything at all from the depletion of our biodiversity and biosphere? Besides, the neglect of a community’s language and its language loss are among the most important reasons for induced migration. Out cities are already groaning under the burden of excess population and lack of a proportionate infrastructure. Linking livelihood opportunity with the language of the region should have long back been accepted by us as an element in planning our development. The number of countries in the world where a substantive part of knowledge transaction and educational processes are carried out in a language that is not one’s own is relatively small. India finds itself in that class for a variety of historical reasons. History cannot be wished away; but its rather convenient use for causing a ‘phonocide’ can certainly be. Imparting education to children through the language used in their homes or in their community is scientifically considered to aid full development of their cognitive and emotive faculties. And indeed, providing access to learning one’s mother tongue, should the parents or the child wish to do so, does not require huge funding investment. Our population stands today at 1.3 billion, with close to 15 crore children who deserve to be in school. It would be useful to know if the ones who will not be able to go to school at all, or will lag behind and drop out, are children whose mother tongues lie hidden in the concealed language data. Since we have accepted the principle of voluntary disclosure of income as the duty of citizens, can we not press for a willing disclosure of data related to this other important currency — the languages in circulation — as a primary obligation of the state? By 2050, no trace of these may be left. Such rapid and severe shrinking of diversity shall certainly amount to an increased cultural pauperisation of India. Compromising democracy By trashing the languages of the coastal communities, the nomadic communities, the hill communities, the Adivasis and the minorities in every State, we are at once violating the UNESCO charter, vandalising the future of the post-2010 generation, denying citizens their linguistic citizenship and pauperising India culturally. If we had to use a single word for this condition, it would be ‘aphasia’. A country that watches silently and unmoved the spreading aphasia invariably invites upon itself a compromised democracy.

Muhammad Iqbal described India as a “ gulistan (sacred garden)” and Indians as the chirping birds in it, “ hum bulbulay hain is ki (we are its nightingales)”. Imagine if half the birds suddenly fall silent and sing no more, what kind of garden will it be? History shows that cultural elements that a state tries to suppress as inconvenient do return in some unexpected forms that upset the momentary equilibrium. Agitations such as the current one for Gorkhaland in West Bengal can visit other States as well.

98. Decolonising the curriculum

Will the BJP government be content with just some platitudes about golden-age flying chariots? Two important essays in the right-liberal magazine Swarajya have just appeared as if to serve as a wake-up call to the Bharatiya Janata Party government on matters of education. The more recent of these is an erudite extended interview of Vishwa Adluri and Joydeep Bagchee by Srinivas Udumudi. Mr. Adluri and Mr. Bagchee’s latest book, The Nay Science , lays bare the colonial origins of several normalised assumptions in Indian historiography and politics, including, perhaps most significantly, the “Aryan” origins issue. Their work, very simply, has enormous ramifications for the future of liberal arts in and on India. The interview suggests that much of what is taken for granted in the story of India’s past needs to be shaken up and transformed: our school-level history lessons about Aryan invaders and Brahmin colonisers are perpetuations of projections about Jews and Catholics in 19th century Protestant theology blindly applied to India. And this is not a mere classroom conjecture. Mr. Adluri and Mr. Bagchee have demonstrated the arbitrariness and emptiness of the fantasy about India that was produced by the German Indologists.

A derivative discourse There is much unnecessary hatred in Indian debate today that ought to be put aside for more precise and accurate critiques of power. For too long, academic discourses (and political rhetoric) in India have relied uncritically on European Christian invective about an evil and corrupt Brahmin race (“caricatures of rabbis drawn with brown chalk”) rather than an indigenous account of social groups and relations. Some academicians have even concluded (largely among themselves but then they are such an influential lot) that the ancient Indian texts associated with devotional philosophy in India are somehow responsible for genocide in Europe during World War II. The Nazi-Sanskrit linkage, however pretty it sounds in the halls of academic showmanship, is an insult to reality and to academia. Mr. Adluri and Mr. Bagchee rightly say that comparing National Socialism with Brahminism is “pernicious” and diverts culpability from the people who actually did it to the language of ancient Indian texts.

The two scholars are presently on a speaking tour in India, and one of the questions they are engaging with is the idea of time in the Mahabharata . This is not merely an academic debate. Our politics, mobilised around identities inscribed during colonialism to serve colonial interests, cannot live up to our aspirations if we fail to decolonise our temporal assumptions, our teleologies of progress, development, and golden ages. Gandhians who believe in Hind Swaraj, and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh volunteers who venerate Integral Humanism might both find something useful in recognising the utter arbitrariness, and indeed, the violence in an ecological and epistemological sense, of Time as we have succumbed to it, in life, curriculum, and modern national destiny. One can hope that The Nay Science will spark introspection and change in academia, but there is the more practical side of things; the continuing neglect of arts and humanities. Despite frequent rhetorical references to Indian civilisational genius, the present government does not quite show that it intends to take anything more than the technocratic trades seriously, at least on the basis of how the New Education Policy team has been set up (there are no arts and humanities scholars in it). This is the criticism made by Sanskrit scholar Bharat Gupt in a sharp essay in Swarajya entitled “Is BJP Reviving Macaulay?” Mr. Gupt identifies the destruction of education in arts as one of the most crippling acts of colonialism, and one that was continued blindly not only by the ideologues of the left, but also by the “puritanism of Gandhi” and the “staunchness of Hegdewar”, among others. Without an education in the cultivation of laality a (“aesthetic softness”) and tushti (“satisfaction”), things once viewed as citizen’s prerogatives in India, Indian students have been content to pursue a curriculum of aggression and competitiveness. With its focus on “mugging”, education in independent India has perpetuated the colonial imperative to produce not citizens but mere clerks, or cogs in the coding (and consuming) machine. Ironically, considering our popular association of classicism with elitism, we find Mr Gupt saying something shocking to left and right dogmas; it is not the affluent, he says, but mainly the poor in India who still retain “some traditional aesthetic sense”. Taken together, these essays call for an honest debate on what an Indian (or Indic) liberal arts might look like minus the enforced dogmas of the Protestant- colonial era, and without the clumsy technocracy and cliché-laden approach of the other side. The government has to show whether it takes “civilisation” seriously enough to help students engage, question and discover it for themselves, or whether it is content to let it pass with some platitudes about golden-age flying chariots. It would be a fate worse than Macaulay indeed if the New Education Policy fails to seize this moment of great promise for a rich and transformative vision of Indic liberal arts.

99. Should urbanisation score over conservation? LEFT The Culture Ministry talks not of cultural heritage but of roadways, railway tracks, and private landed interests It is remarkable how those today in power, who shout daily from the housetops that they love Bharat Mata and serve her in a manner never imagined by their predecessors, by their actions daily undermine the country’s multicultural heritage. For instance, sample the latest amendments to the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains (AMASR) Act, 1958, that have been placed before Parliament, to do away with the prohibited zones around protected national monuments whenever it chooses to do so for some supposed “public” purpose. Whose Culture Ministry? To justify this, we are offered a note for the Cabinet prepared by the Ministry of Culture. Significantly, the ministry here speaks not on behalf of our cultural heritage, as it should, but pleads the cause of roadways, railway tracks, and unknown private landed interests. The note claims that lives would be endangered if an elevated highway is not allowed to pass within 100 metres of Akbar’s tomb in Agra. In the second case, it speaks of a proposed railway track that had to be shifted away from Rani ki vav in Patan, Gujarat. The third and final instance is that of an unnamed hospital (private?) which cannot supposedly expand except by intruding within 100 metres of Tipu Sultan’s palace in Bengaluru. These three instances are considered enough by the Ministry of Culture to demand the withdrawal of the constraint imposed by the AMASR Act on any new construction within 100 metres of a protected monument (with a further limit of 200 metres set for “regulated area”). In effect, the cases it cites are two only, since in Patan the matter has ended with the railway track already steering clear of the 11th century stepwell. The remaining two are interesting instances since they do not only concern “Muslim” monuments, but are associated with two men in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh’s cross hairs, namely, Akbar and Tipu Sultan. Are these two dubious cases enough to justify endangering the security and spoiling the surroundings of over 3,500 nationally protected monuments in the country? Incidentally, the statement in the note that some hypothetical projects cannot be shifted away from the monuments because of constraints of “land- ownership” in the alternative area is really strange since this nation has on its statute book a law for compulsory acquisition for public purposes. It is clear that the Ministry of Culture’s note is a piece produced at somebody’s command.

Nowhere is it stated in it that the Archaeological Survey of India (under the Ministry of Culture) has cleared the proposal or that the Central Advisory Board of Archaeology has been consulted about it. Nor does even the ministry’s note itself care to consider the probable effects of the intruding structures on the security and appearance of the protected monuments concerned, or the effect of heavy traffic on the structures of the monuments (as in Sikandra, Agra). All those interested in the defence of our heritage must do their best to oppose this proposal. Our members of Parliament, before whom the proposed amendments to the AMASR Act are being put, should be reminded of how in 1876 James Fergusson, a great Anglo-Indian student of Indian architecture, had the courage to describe such ill-treatment of Mughal monuments by the British government as “vandalism”. Behind British prejudice there was at least no avarice. Now the protected zones around our 3,500-odd monuments are to be put up for grabs by corporates and land sharks hiding behind nominal “public authorities”. This should not be allowed to happen. RIGHT We are not facilitating the exchange of ideas. Regions have to evolve their own charter and engineering codes A barbed-wire approach towards conservation can be faulted just as cookie- cutter standards on rules can become tyrannical. Yardsticks framing ground regulations must be preceded by informed discussions with experienced historians, artists, planners, conservationists, etc. A view on every single proposal that relates to the built environment requires trans-disciplinary intervention. I.M. Pei’s glass pyramid in the courtyard of the Louvre in Paris could not have been built if a view had not been taken right at the top by the President of France to see the project through. Intense public participation followed. There were heated debates. Today the luminescent hi-tech structure enhances the experience of the stone facade museum and has become iconic to Paris’s heritage value. People protested even then. But look at the Grands Projets — or officially, the Grandes Operations d’Architecture et d’Urbanisme, an architectural programme initiated by President François Mitterrand to create modern iconic monuments in the inner city of Paris — now. However provocative, it is an elegant, complementary foil to the past. The civic building projects symbolised both the revitalisation of the city and an adherence to its history City-specific planning Creativity and a vision for the built space cannot be left to bureaucracy — howsoever trained — or a political group aligned in whichever direction. An urban arts commission in each city is needed as an empowered authority to direct appropriate mapping of its tangible and intangible heritage, to be

followed by the preparation of a conservation management plan for each precinct. New buildings must come up even at the cost of old ones if absolutely needed and designed accordingly. I don’t think this can come from a one- dimensional rule. One would need to evolve a holistic strategy that can cohere and be transmitted enhancing the spirit of the city. I hope the new rules, that I am yet to examine, will not mean that one can build anything anywhere. Rules without a system in place can become abusive. Knee-jerk reactions cannot be an answer to development and this is not just about a city. This is not about a monument or a builders’ lobby. The irony is, in a so-called federal polity, we are not facilitating the exchange of ideas. Everybody seems to be doing his or her own thing or too fearful of doing anything. There is no reason why a Meerut or Jaipur cannot exchange ideas with Delhi or Nashik and Pune refer to Mumbai. Regions have to evolve their own local charter and engineering codes. Bodies buckling under The Indian National Trust for Art and Cultural Heritage (INTACH) was supposed to be the civil society’s initiative answering questions on the nature of appropriate materials, local skills and contexts, serving as a bridge between conservation and urbanisation. While it did a number of good things, it did not develop teeth to challenge the government or initiate state-of-the-art research or conduct a seminal taking of stock. A few years ago, some of us had taken the Archaeological Survey of India to the Supreme Court for undertaking major renovation work in the name of conservation at the Red Fort in the Capital, making a mockery of its heritage status. The court had intervened very positively, but as I am told, damages continue with utter disregard to the ruling. There is ample evidence to show what is being done in the name of renovation. There has to be a politics of culture represented by people who have a feel for the city, its history and cultural heritage. CENTRE No one has empowered the present generation to endanger our heritage pooled in over centuries The problem with parliamentary democracy often lies in its inscrutable legal jargon. By the time one gets to know the real purport of a Bill, it is all over and done with. We need, therefore, to act real fast to convince our lawmakers not to rush through with further amendments to the Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains (Amendments and Validation) Act, 2010.

If passed, it will shatter the much-laboured protective circle that was installed around our monuments only seven years ago, after centuries of indifference. The nation realised that it had to act tough if it was to save the part of India’s priceless built heritage that had not yet been mauled by urbanisation, greed or insensitive development projects. The law was, therefore, amended in 2010 to declare the immediate circle of 100 metres around these monuments as strict ‘prohibited zones’. For the first time, no one was permitted to build or rebuild: not even ubiquitous and omnipotent government authorities. The present Bill before Parliament seeks to restore the ‘majesty’ of government. I happened to be around as Secretary of the Culture Ministry seven years ago when this protective law was put in place and I faced the same criticism: why can’t government projects be on a different footing? Lessons and experiences We went through the lessons and experiences of advanced countries and found that more history-conscious nations too had to use very strict laws to protect their heritage that they could never rebuild without some critical loss. We realised that in India, this law has to be even more stringent or else it would be treated as just one more ‘negotiable instrument’. Our collective heritage has been pooled in by several generations over many centuries and millennia. No one has empowered the present generation to destroy or endanger this bequest. From my four decades in government, it is clear that its rusty cutting edge, the tribe of inspectors, tehsildars, thanedars and crafty clerks can pervert every well-meaning decision to make quick bucks or to misuse some megawatts of power that a new notification bestows on them. The upper echelons need to be extra sensitive and realise that every exception that they make further empowers these dreadful hyenas who are so thick with local leaders and business sharks. A recent parliamentary committee report pointed out that even with so much legal protection, 93 encroachments have actually come up in the Qutub Minar zone in the Capital. This could never have happened without the collusion of local leaders and officials. And a large number of our monuments are simply ‘missing’. It is difficult to believe that the world’s fastest-growing economy cannot spend a little more to skirt a road project around the tomb of the father of Indian secularism, Akbar, in Agra so that it passes beyond the prohibited 100-metre zone. Or is Akbar being given a message?

Will we be so tolerant if a busy flyover or a ground-shaking train line rubbed past Kashi Vishwanath or the Sri Ranganathaswamy temple and disturbed their gravitas? Rani ki vav is an outstanding architectural masterpiece of Chalukyan Gujarat. It is not only ‘Hindu’: it also nurtures the revered waters of River Saraswati. Can the proposed railway line in Patan that one hears of take a little detour so that India does not lose the World Heritage status that it earned with so much toil for Rani ki vav? Are a hundred metres too much to plead for?

100. Centre sees a thaw on H-1B

Sushma says Trump has acknowledged the contributions of Indian skilled workers External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Thursday said that during his recent visit to the United States, Prime Minister Narendra Modi succeeded in making President Donald Trump recognise the contributions of Indian skilled professionals to the American economy. Responding to a question of V. Maitreyan in the Rajya Sabha on whether the H-1B visa issue was taken up, Ms. Swaraj said though it was not mentioned specifically, Mr. Modi had an extensive discussion with President Trump on the spirit behind the visa. The External Affairs Minister cited the joint statement through which, she said, President Trump applauded “the entrepreneurship and innovation of Indians and Indian-Americans that have directly benefited both the nations”. Ms. Swaraj said if the United States took any decision adversely impacting Indian professionals, such a move would eventually hurt its own interests.

Closely engaged In a written reply on the same issue, the government said it remained closely engaged with the U.S. Congress and the U.S. Administration on issues relating to mobility of Indian skilled professionals, including through the H-1B visa programme. The response also quoted the joint statement of Mr. Modi and Mr. Trump, which noted that: “recognising that we are in an increasingly digital world, the leaders agreed to intensify the mutually beneficial partnership to fully harness their innovation capabilities to solve global development changes.” In the current U.S. Congress, six Bills relating to H-1B and L-1 visa programmes have been introduced by individual congressmen and senators. However, none of them has so far been passed and no comprehensive policy changes have been made.

101. Aboriginals landed in Australia 65,000 years ago

Study says fresh evidence pushes back arrival period up to 18,000 years The timing of the first arrival of humans in Australia has been studied and debated for decades. Now, researchers have found evidence that suggests the ancestors of aboriginal Australians landed in the northern part of Australia at least 65,000 years ago. The finding, which was published on Wednesday in the journal Nature , pushes back the timing of when people first came to the continent by about 5,000 to 18,000 years. It also suggests that humans coexisted with colossal Australian animals like giant wombats and wallabies long before the megafauna went extinct. “This is the earliest reliable date for human occupation in Australia,” Peter Hiscock, an archaeologist at the University of Sydney, who was not involved in the study, said in an email. “This is indeed a marvellous step forward in our exploration of the human past in Australia.” Previous archaeological digs and dating had suggested people migrated to Australia between 47,000 and 60,000 years ago. However, a new excavation at an aboriginal rock shelter called Madjedbebe revealed human relics that dated back 65,000 years. “We were gobsmacked by the richness of material that we were finding at the site: fireplaces intact, a ring of grind stones around it, and there were human burials in their graves,” said Chris Clarkson, an archaeologist from the University of Queensland in Australia and lead author of the study. “No one dreamed of a site so rich and so old in Australia.” Over 11,000 artefacts The Madjedbebe site had been studied in the 1970s. But during more recent visits in 2012 and 2015, Mr. Clarkson and his colleagues recovered more than 11,000 artefacts from the deepest layers of the excavation pit. In addition to uncovering leftovers of an ancient campfire and archaic mortars and pestles, they also found flaked stone tools and painting material. They also unearthed the earliest known examples of edge-ground axes, which are stone axes that would have had handles, which were 20,000 years older than those found anywhere else in the world. Mr. Clarkson said the finding provided further insight into the complex capabilities of ancient humans as well as the chronology of when they migrated from Africa and spread across the world.

He added that the findings provide evidence against a prevailing theory that people rapidly drove Australia’s largest animals to extinction shortly after arriving on the continent. “It puts to bed the whole idea that humans wiped them out,” said Mr. Clarkson. “We’re talking 20,000 to 25,000 years of coexistence.” To determine the age of the artefacts, the team had to date the sediment layer where they were buried. They first performed radiocarbon dating on sediment starting at the surface until they got to layers that were about 37,000 years old. They then shifted to a technique called optically stimulated luminescence dating for the deepest layers, which was used to measure the last time the sand in the rock shelter was exposed to sunlight. Think of a grain of sand as an empty battery that slowly collects charge once it’s buried. As long as it remains in the dark it will continue gaining energy over time. If researchers can recover the grain of sand, and keep it dark, they can then use a laser to release the “charge” within it. By measuring the amount of energy the grain of sand releases, and comparing that with the amount of radiation that the sand was exposed to while it was buried, researchers can determine when it was last in sunlight.NYT

102. Protection of personal data a right

Data is an extension of personality, says Additional Solicitor-General Narasimha Personal data is an integral part of one’s dignity and life, the Centre told the Supreme Court on Friday. Any sharing of personal data by service providers or social media platforms, which impinges on a person’s right to life under Article 21 of the Constitution, requires regulation, the government submitted before a five-judge Constitution Bench, led by Justice Dipak Misra. The Bench is hearing a petition filed by students — led by Karmanya Singh Sareen — alleging that a contract entered into between Facebook and instant messaging platform WhatsApp in 2016 was a violation of the citizens’ right to privacy. This data includes photographs, messages and pictures shared by users on WhatsApp. “Data is an extension of personality. It is a reflection of one’s footsteps in life. There cannot be an individual without personality. There would be a need for state’s intervention if any contract infringed upon the data as it affects my right to life,” Additional Solicitor-General P.S. Narasimha, for the Centre, contended. Regulatory mechanism

He added that a regulatory mechanism was in the works to protect people from personal data leaks online. However, this stand taken by the Centre in the WhatsApp case does not quite gel with its position before a nine-judge Constitution Bench, led by Chief Justice of India J.S. Khehar, currently examining whether privacy is a fundamental right with respect to Aadhaar.

103. Six private telcos shortchanged govt.

Understated revenues by Rs. 61,000 crore, reports CAG Six leading private telecom players understated their revenues by over Rs. 61,000 crore, depriving the exchequer of Rs. 7,697.62 crore, the Comptroller and Auditor General of India said in a report tabled in Parliament on Friday. The auditor also questioned the Department of Telecom (DoT) for failing to take any “proactive steps to ensure that the licencees disclosed their revenue as stipulated in the licence agreements.” Short-paid revenue The interest dues on the short-paid revenue would amount to Rs. 4,531.62 crore, the auditor noted, taking the total potential revenue at stake for the government at over Rs. 12,220 crore. This revenue loss occurred over the five-year period from 2010-11 to 2014-15 for five telcos — Bharti Airtel, Vodafone, Idea Cellular, Reliance Communications and Aircel. For Sistema Shyam Teleservices Limited (SSTL), the findings are for the 2006-07 to 2014-15 period. According to the CAG, the shortfall in licence fee (LF) and Spectrum Usage Charge (SUC) payments owing to the understatement of adjusted gross revenues by telecom players stood at Rs. 2,602.24 crore for the country’s largest telecom player Bharti Airtel. It was Rs. 2,152.95 crore for Vodafone, Rs. 1,136.29 crore for Idea, Rs. 1,072.68 crore for Reliance Communications, Rs. 670.85 crore for Aircel and Rs. 62.61 crore for SSTL. Definition challenged In its response to the audit finding, the DoT pointed out that the basic definition of gross revenue and adjusted gross revenue was challenged by the operators in 2002-03. “Since then, there has been protracted litigation and it is continuing till date.” According to the auditor, the telecom players suppressed revenues through accounting adjustments for commissions or discounts paid to distributors and promotional schemes like free talk time, as well as discounts for users of post- paid and roaming services.

The exchequer was also shortchanged by understating revenue by simply excluding forex gains, interest income, sale of investment, miscellaneous revenue and profit on sale of fixed assets and dividend income from their reported aggregated gross revenue, as per the CAG. The telecom operators share a percentage of their aggregated gross revenue with the government as annual LF. Besides, they are also required to pay SUC for using airwaves allotted to them.

104. H1N1 returns: what can be done to control the virus

The government must urgently frame a national policy for influenza immunisation So far this year, 12,500 people have been infected with the influenza A (H1N1 ) virus, of which 600 have died. According to official data, Maharashtra alone has registered 284 deaths, which by itself is much more than the total mortality figure of 265 in the country as a result of H1N1 in 2016. Even in the first three months of 2017 , the number of cases and deaths were fairly high, at over 6,000 and 160, respectively. Maharashtra could have recorded the highest number of cases and deaths caused by the H1N1 virus because of better awareness and and a relatively more robust surveillance system. But there is every possibility of a spike in the number of cases in the coming months with cooler temperatures setting in and winter still months away. Though the incidence of H1N1 is likely to be less than in 2015, when the death toll was about 3,000, the steady toll being taken by “swine flu” is a big cause for concern. The whole genome sequencing carried out at Pune’s National Institute of Virology has confirmed that the virus has not undergone any significant mutation to make it more virulent. The virus has undergone point mutations, which is normal and reflects its evolution, but this has no correlation with virulence whatsoever. For instance, the California strain had been circulating around the world since the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. But as a result of point mutations, a new strain — the Michigan strain — emerged last year. India witnessed the circulation of both the California and Michigan strains in 2016. This year, surveillance revealed that the H1N1 virus found in India is only the Michigan strain. As in the case of the California strain, the Michigan strain too is susceptible to the drug Oseltamivir. In order to make the drug widely available and easily accessible so that treatment can be started early, the drug was moved from Schedule X to Schedule H1 last month. Timely diagnosis and easy and wide availability of the drug are expected to reduce mortality. It could also potentially increase the risk of drug resistance setting in earlier. There are 42 laboratories providing diagnostic services across the country, and there is a compelling need to increase this number. The primary reason is that any delay in receiving results from reference laboratories combined with ready availability

of the drug in more pharmacies will result in more prescriptions being handed out even in the absence of a confirmed laboratory diagnosis. Since the 2009 pandemic, H1N1 has become a seasonal flu virus strain in India even during the peak of summer. The only way, then, to reduce the number of cases and deaths is by framing a national policy for influenza immunisation. The first step in that direction is to have qualitative and quantitative data on the vulnerable population. Meanwhile, vaccinating health-care workers who come in contact with high-risk patients should be a priority.

105. The Kannada flag, et cetera

The non-Hindi-speaking regions are coming up with creative ways of fighting for their cultural freedom Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah’s resolve to look into the legality of having a flag for the State has elicited enthusiasm as well as disbelief (including the utterly boring charges of it being “anti-national” and “seditious”). At bottom, the discussion is really about the cultural freedom of State-regions within India’s federated polity. The passions on this matter have been building up in recent weeks. For instance, the protests against the use of Hindi signage in Bangalore’s Metro last month. And, more recently, the incredulity towards the complaint that A.R. Rahman should have performed more songs in Hindi at a concert in London. A longer timeline Kannada writer B.M. Srikantaiah’s poem, Kannadada Bavuta (The Kannada Flag/Banner, 1938), is perhaps the earliest summoning of the idea of a Kannada flag. Most remembered for his innovative translation of over sixty English poems into Kannada in 1926, Srikantaiah’s idea of a flag aspired for the unification of the Kannada-speaking areas, which were found across the states of Mysore and Hyderabad, the Bombay and Madras Presidencies and Coorg. Securing the future of Kannada in the face of the scholarly dominance of Sanskrit and the linguistic prestige of English was another of its aspirations. Ma. Ramamurthy, the secretary of Karnataka Samyukta Ranga (Karnataka United Front), a group founded in 1966 to unite the various Kannada organisations in the State, felt a flag was necessary to symbolise its activist aspirations and mobilise Kannada speakers. Following several deliberations with Kannada groups, he designed a rectangular flag split into two horizontal halves coloured light yellow at the top and red at the bottom. The yellow connoted peace and friendship and symbolised the State as a land of gold, and the red a fighting spirit. It is possible that the red and black-coloured Dravida

Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) flag served as the model for this two-colour scheme. The Kannada-Tamil rivalry seen in Bangalore in the initial years after Independence needs careful study. Suffice it to note here that the Kannada activists appear to have been worked up by the perceived linguistic assertiveness of the newer, DMK-inspired Tamil migrants in Bangalore than the older Tamil settlers. Ramamurthy picked his flag as the party symbol of Kannada Paksha, a political party that he founded in 1966. His party wound down after his death in a farm accident the following year. His flag has come to be freely used by Kannada activists ever since. A symbolic presence The proliferation of Kannada activist groups — ranging from organisations with a Statewide presence to street-corner and neighbourhood outfits — over the last two decades has given the yellow-red colour scheme a wide symbolic presence in the State: flags, the posters and maps of Karnataka, the walls of government offices and schools, flagpoles, stickers on buses, cars and autorickshaws, film songs, TV channel logos. Whether granted official status or not, the Kannada flag is likely to endure. In activist discussions, Kannada identity has rarely been seen outside the framework of a federated India. To take a famous instance: the first line of Kuvempu’s 1928 poem, Jaya He Karnataka Maate , which officially became the State song ( nada-geethe ) in 2004, declares Karnataka as the daughter of Mother India. The anger about the imposition of Hindi makes sense only within this prior idea of Karnataka’s relation to India. While Kannada activists have been wary of the Centre’s efforts to “promote” Hindi all along, the recent pro-Hindi moves of the Central government in particular have deepened linguistic anxieties among them (and indeed among many other non-Hindi-language speakers). The External Affairs Ministry’s decision that Indian passports will record details in Hindi alongside English and the Personnel Ministry’s desire that the use of colloquial Hindi in “routine conversations in government offices” goes up continue to offer a privileged status for Hindi. The Central government of course is not the only culprit in injuring linguistic democracy in India. Prevailing cultural prejudices matter too. The remarks of an ex-Rajya Sabha MP and former editor of the RSS’s Hindi weekly, Panchjanya , denying that the attacks on African students could be racist are illustrative: “If we were racist, why would we have all the entire south… Tamil, Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra… why do we live with them? We have black people around us.” Besides presuming that north India was all of India, his remarks offered a dark glimpse of how south Indians might be seen in parts of north India. The issue is clearly more than language.

Perceptions that the new “north Indian” settlers in the State are indifferent to learning Kannada and insist that the others speak in Hindi also underlay the recent protests against the use of Hindi signs in the Bangalore Metro. Linguistic coexistence The need for a public discussion of the ethics of linguistic coexistence was never more urgent than now. At a time of large movements of Indians across the country, relations between linguistic communities cannot be expected to get sorted out somehow. Kannada writers have long argued that migrants from Karnataka ought to learn the language of the State they move to and migrants from outside the State needed to do similarly when they moved here. An imagination of linguistic fairness within a federal polity is here. An imagination of sacrifice is here as well since Indians are to commit to learning the language of the region they settle in, as a gesture of respect for that language as well as a regard for its future well-being. This ethical frame, which shows that settling amidst new communities is a moral gesture, does not ask that the migrants abandon their languages or not work for their nourishment. Be it flags, or any other symbol, the non-Hindi-speaking regions of India will come up with creative ways of fighting for their cultural freedom. Being sensitive towards their concerns is a precious obligation of a federal polity. Really, the sick project of making India a Hindi nation needs a fast burial.

106. Digital trade games

India must not succumb to global digital trade paradigms and rules that back predatory business Negotiators for the proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) treaty between ASEAN countries, China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are currently meeting in Hyderabad . E-commerce will be a key focus.

A misnomer While there are many contentious issues involved in the RCEP, countries at least know what they are negotiating about and their likely implications. However, it is not the case with e-commerce issues. In fact, e-commerce is a misnomer here. What is under discussion is placing great limitations on digital policymaking by any country in the name of promoting e-commerce. Few understand the real nature of the digital issues involved and the relevant policy requirements of the present and the future. In these circumstances, a blank cheque could possibly be made out to global digital corporations and the countries backing them.

Let’s consider the issue of the free global flow of data — something wrongly presented as being the same as the free flow of information. While data that underpins global media, or personal/social communication networks is one thing, data that today is increasingly basic to banking, retailing, the defence forces, public services, health and education services and so on is an entirely different matter. There is no one thing called “data” that countries could agree to let flow freely across borders. What we have instead are digitalised versions of banking, retail, public services, health services and so on. If something can be meaningfully negotiated at global trade talks, it is such digital services — each of which has different dynamics and implications and needs different treatment. But it may be too early to understand the real nature of these emergent digitalised services — which will eventually be their mainstream form. It was just yesterday that the technology wave of artificial intelligence (AI) — that may economically be even more transformational than the Internet as we know it — struck us.

Free flow of intelligence Therefore, there is no single thing as “data” or its global flows to negotiate about. Instead, there are different kinds of digital services. Further, almost all such services are in their infancy whereby there is scant understanding about them. It is hardly an appropriate time for countries to make trade bargains and policy curtailment promises around them. Instead of seeing it as a global flow of data — a phrase with a deliberate and positive ring about it — one must see it as a global flow of intelligence. The raw resource of data is useful only when turned into digital intelligence. Let’s then try to understand what is meant by an unhindered global flow of digital intelligence. First, digital intelligence is going to be by far the single most important economic resource. Whoever has it controls everything. Accenture recently named AI as a new factor of production, along with capital and labour. Second, digital intelligence tends to concentrate strongly around a few poles or centres. That is the very nature of intelligence, where two and two is more than twenty-two. This results in every sector getting organised around a very few centres of sectoral digital intelligence. Uber has worldwide intelligence about urban transport; Monsanto is working on a global agriculture networking and intelligence platform; for General Electric, it’s “the operating system for industrial Internet”; Baidu, the Chinese Google, is developing the “android of transportation” in partnership with Ford, Daimler, Microsoft and others. In short, global consolidation is taking place in every sector. A prominent Chinese businessman recently observed that countries “will be forced to negotiate with whichever country supplies most of their A.I. software — China or the United States — to essentially become that country’s economic dependent, taking in welfare subsidies in exchange for letting the “parent”

nation’s A.I. companies continue to profit from the dependent country’s users. Such economic arrangements would reshape today’s geopolitical alliances.”

Digital industrialisation India is still stuck in the IT realities of yesterday. It remains in denial about the major transformations in the sector that are taking place along with unprecedented job losses . No doubt there is still a lot of software code to be written and IT to be pulled together, and India retains some key advantages in core IT areas. But the issues of e-commerce or digital trade are much larger. We face a very new reality today as we stand on the threshold of a digital society, where every major economic and social activity will be underpinned by digital intelligence. The main questions for India to consider are these. How much digital intelligence is flowing into India and how much outwards? Is this trend going to change any time soon? Are there strategies in place to change this trend? India must consider a digital industrialisation strategy that ensures that the immense value arising from digitally-induced efficiencies in every sector is retained within India and not allowed to flow out uninhibitedly. If it allows such outflows, it will soon find itself on the wrong side of digital colonisation. It must put its digital house in order before thinking of getting a part of the global digital pie, as China did. Domestic digital strengths should first be developed on the back of its big domestic market. This requires an independent digital policy, including protections for India’s incipient digital industry. This will not only ensure that our economy and society are not controlled from outside but also protect existing jobs and create many more new ones. India has just begun some good policy work for a data economy and society, with its “Digital India” policies, and development of “digital public goods” like the IndiaStack of basic digital platforms and infrastructural data systems that are open to all. These can be very helpful in developing a local digital industry. However, such efforts can get nullified if India succumbs to global digital trade paradigms and rules developed by countries that back predatory global digital business, by accepting the “free global flow of data” and sacrificing its digital policymaking powers and sovereignty.

107. IFCI violated norms in sanctioning loans

NPAs amounting to ₹₹₹2,794.58 crore originated in last three years: CAG report A Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) report has found that a majority of loans given by IFCI during 2012-16 were either not in line with the General Lending Policy, or were given out without due diligence having been performed. This had led to a 78% increase in non-performing assets (NPAs) over the last three years.

The audit on IFCI was carried out due to the high level of NPAs, which amounted to ₹3,544.54 crore as of March 31, 2016, or 13.05% of total outstanding loans. “Out of above NPAs, NPAs amounting to ₹2,794.58 crore (78%) originated during the last three years,” the CAG report noted. “Further, principal amounting to ₹1,637.87 crore was written-off from the books of accounts and there was an increase of ₹40,638.98 crore in unrealised interest on account of NPAs during the audit period from 2012-13 to 2015-16.” “Audit selected 128 cases of loans sanctioned during the audit period and observed that in respect of 69 cases (54%) the loans were sanctioned in deviation from the eligibility conditions prescribed in the relevant General Lending Policy (GLP),” the report said. “Due diligence was not exercised during credit appraisal resulting in the loans being sanctioned to borrowers with poor debt servicing capabilities.” New credits For example, IFCI sanctioned new credit facilities to other group companies of the borrower for swapping the existing exposure in the borrower company when the borrower defaulted in the repayment of its loans. “There was non-compliance with the guidelines issued by the RBIon asset classification and provisioning, conversion of outstanding principal into debt or equity, restructuring norms etc.,” according to the report. The CAG recommended that the credit appraisal mechanism be strengthened and that the company strictly comply with the RBI guidelines and that the company should not deviate from the General Lending Policy “as a matter of routine”.

108. WCO lauds India’s trade facilitation plan

Customs body finds proposals surpass WTO pact’s ambit India’s National Trade Facilitation Action Plan (NTFAP), which aims to cut cargo release time for exports and imports as part of measures to boost goods trade, has been described by the World Customs Organisation (WCO) as a ‘best practice’ other nations can adopt. The WCO was impressed by the fact that as many as 51 of the 76 activities mentioned in the NTFAP (released by the Centre on Thursday) “go beyond” the implementation requirements of the World Trade Organisation’s Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). The NTFAP, which is to be implemented between 2017 and 2020, is part of India’s efforts to improve its ease of doing business ranking. While India’s

overall rank in the World Bank’s Doing Business report is 130, it ranks 144 out of 190 nations in the ‘Trading Across Borders’ category. The TFA — meant to ease Customs norms for faster flow of goods across borders — had come into effect in February 2017. ‘An inspiration’ “It is a good document. It has several activities that go beyond the TFA to help improve India’s competitiveness. It will be an inspiration to many countries,” WCO Secretary General Kunio Mikuriya said at a function organised by industry body FICCI, World Bank and the Finance Ministry. “We will adopt it as a best practice and recommend it to all the other countries.” The WCO — the international body supporting the uniform implementation of the TFA across the globe — has 182 member nations (including India) that manage more than 98% of world trade. India had ratified the TFA in April 2016. As per the WTO, “the full implementation of the TFA could ... boost global trade by up to $1 trillion per year.” The requirement to implement the TFA is directly linked to the capacity of the country to do so, the WTO had said. Justifying the large number of TFA-plus activities, the NTFAP stated: “Since infrastructure and technology augmentation are prime enablers for trade facilitation, more so for India, the action plan (NTFAP) covers many activities in these areas.” It added, “Since they go beyond the ambit of the TFA per se, they have been defined as TFA Plus category.” Global benchmarks The NTFAP further stated that “similarly, enhancement of existing compliance levels to achieve global benchmarks in crucial segments like Time Release Study, Post Clearance Audit and AEO (Authorised Economic Operator) scheme belong to the TFA Plus category as they are dynamic objectives.” Of the 51 “TFA-plus activities”, most (or 34) have a timeline of six to 18 months. These include alignment of India’s foreign trade policy with the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime and the WTO’s TFA, as well as gate automation at ports, establishment of labs at sea/air ports, and complete automation of ‘transit movement and transhipment procedures’. Six-month deadline While 12 of the “TFA-plus activities” have a deadline of up to six months (including giving information on average clearance time at gate, fixing

responsibility for delays in giving clearances), five such activities have a timeline of 18-36 months (including improving infrastructure). Of the 25 activities that are part of the TFA requirements, 17 will be implemented within 6-18 months, while eight have a timeline of up to six months.

109. A Sunderbans denizen staves off extinction

The Northern river terrapin has clung on tenaciously A critically endangered resident of the Sunderbans is set to get a new home, beginning a slow journey to recovery from a disastrous decline in the wild. It is more threatened than the Bengal tiger, but far less known. Before winter this year, three fresh water ponds in the Sunderbans Tiger Reserve will house the rare Northern river terrapin ( Batagur baska ), whose presence in the wild in West Bengal and Odisha had declined to undetectable levels a decade ago. Batagur baska , the 60-cm-long turtle that is presumed extinct in several Southeast Asian countries, is classified as critically endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature ( IUCN) in its Red List of threatened species. The tiger, by comparison, is endangered. For the past ten years, officials of the Sunderban Tiger Reserve with support from experts at Turtle Survival Alliance (TSA), have coordinated a recovery program for what is described as the world’s second most endangered turtle, through captive conservation breeding. The Yangtze giant soft shell turtle, Rafetus swinhoei , is considered the most endangered freshwater turtle.

Needs other homes While conservation breeding to save the Northern river terrapin is ranked among the best programmes, Ravi Kant Sinha, Chief Wildlife Warden and Principal Chief Conservator of Forests, West Bengal, said it would be bad management to put all eggs in one basket. Having more sites to breed is a natural extension of the ongoing effort, he said. The terrapin, which has a river estuarine habitat, has had a lucky spell in recent years. Nilanjan Mallick, the field director of the Sunderban reserve said there was not much early success in the breeding programme, but things looked up after 2012. “The number of turtles at Sajnekhali is well over 200. This year alone we got 87 hatchlings,” Mr. Mallick said. The field director of STR said the decision to get a new enclosure for the breeding programme would protect the species against natural risks, and also

facilitate genetic management. Last year, forest officials and the TSA reintroduced ten turtles into the wild, using acoustic transmitters to monitor their progress. This year more may be released with satellite transmitters to determine survival and dispersal. Shailendra Singh, the director at the TSA India program, pointed out that habitat loss and clandestine harvesting had decimated the population of the species. “In 2008 we did a survey in Odisha and West Bengal and could not locate Batagur baska in the wild. Conservation started with only 13 adults turtles at Sajnekhali,” he recalled. Of six large fresh water turtles of the genus Batagur , three are found in India. Batagur kachuga (Red-crowned roofed turtle) and Batagur dhongoka (Three-striped roofed turtle) are found in the tributaries of the Ganga, such as Chambal. The Northern river terrapin is the most endangered of the three species, and their long-term fortunes depend on an ecologically functional colony getting re- established in the wild. “Before that, we will have to reach a figure of about 1,000 individuals in captivity,” Mr. Singh said.

110. Pentagon urges direct talks on Doklam standoff

‘India, China should open dialogue’ India and China should engage in direct dialogue, free of any “coercive aspects” to reduce the tension over a military standoff in Doklam, the Pentagon has said. Chinese and Indian soldiers have been locked in a face-off in the Doklam area at the tri-junction of India, Bhutan and China in an area also claimed by Bhutan for over a month after Indian troops stopped the Chinese army from building a road in the disputed area. “We encourage India and China to engage in direct dialogue aimed at reducing tensions and free of any coercive aspects,” Gary Ross, a Defence Department spokesman, told PTI. Mr. Ross, however, refused to take sides on the issue. “We refer you to the governments of India and China for further information... We are not going to speculate on such matters,” he said when asked if the Pentagon fears the tension may escalate between India and China. The U.S. State Department too made similar statements over the past week.

Earlier this week, a senior Pentagon Commander told U.S. lawmakers that China was exploiting its economic leverage as a way to further its regional political objectives.

111. China media set much store by NSA visit

In a shift in tone, state media said both countries ‘need to enhance communication and nurture trust’ In a shift from the harsh rhetoric of the past weeks, Chinese state media on Friday hoped that next week’s visit to China by National Security Adviser Ajit Doval will help end the Doklam crisis and advance China-India ties. “Despite concerns on possible military clashes, Chinese experts reached by the Global Times on Friday said they hoped that the upcoming visit of Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval would serve as an opportunity to ease the tension,” an article in the state-run tabloid said, quoting Ma Jiali, a research fellow from a Beijing-based think tank, China Reform Forum. Mr. Ma is a veteran academic, who has been engaged in Track-2 diplomacy with India following former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to Beijing in 1988. Mr. Doval will participate in a two-day BRICS event starting on July 27.

Key visit The NSA’s visit will be key to solving the current dispute and if the two sides failed to reach some agreement on the issue, the China-India ties would be severely damaged, Mr. Ma observed. The daily prefaced the anticipation of Mr. Doval’s visit by slamming remarks by BJP leader R.K. Singh, who had reportedly opposed changing the status quo in Doklam, on grounds that it would endanger India's vital interests.

Better communication But striking a remarkably conciliatory note ahead of Mr. Doval’s visit, a commentary by state-run Xinhua news agency underscored that both countries “need to enhance communication and nurture trust between them, first by recognising that the two are not born rivals and that harbouring ill will against each other is dangerous”. The focus on enhancing communication echoes recent observations by former National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon. In a recent interview with The Hindu , Mr. Menon stressed that India and China “since the ’80s been rubbing up against each other in the periphery we share”.

Mr. Menon added: “So we do need a new strategic dialogue to discuss how we should sort out problems.” The Xinhua commentary pointed out that the recent border issue “shows a lack of strategic trust on the Indian side”.

Economic ties However, it highlighted that as “the two countries are the world's biggest potential markets, each with over a billion people, they could develop complementary industries and cooperate in protecting common security”. “Working together, China and India could build something unprecedentedly wonderful for not just themselves, but the whole region and the world.” The write-up pointed out that the Asian continent would be a big loser if the China-Indian rivalry cements. “Obviously the two would pay a heavy price first of all. Even Japan, the U.S. ally who relies heavily on the Chinese market, would suffer an economic blow, which could turn into a domestic crisis.” “Most economies, including those in the West, will find themselves negatively affected by an India-China war in a globalised and intertwined world today,” it observed. “The only beneficiaries (of a conflict), sadly, will be opportunists, short-sighted nationalist politicians who don't really have the people's interests in heart. And the dream of an Asian century would become a puff of wind.”

112. GST system is robust: Centre

Tells Rajya Sabha that the network is not directly exposed to the Internet The Goods and Services Tax (GST) system is not exposed directly to the Internet and has a dedicated round-the-clock security operations command centre in its network against cyberthreats, the government has told the Rajya Sabha. To a question, the government said on Friday that any interaction with the system was only through APIs (application programming interfaces). It had a multi-layered security architecture and had operational segregation through use of a virtual local area network.

Access privileges There was segregation of duties, least privilege access principles, Internet Protocol (IP) filtering and blocking of rogue IPs, resiliency at each layer, secure coding practices ensuring security of GST software development throughout

Software Development Lifecycle, and at-rest and in-transit data encryption, the government said. The data sharing mechanism ensures that any data transfer from the GST system is in encrypted format. The system banks on thorough security testing and full-system vulnerability assessment and penetration testing of IT infrastructure, besides the apps used licensed tools and customised scripts, said the government.

Security incidents According to the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), a total of 44,679, 49,455, 50,362 and 27,482 cybersecurity incidents were observed during 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 (till June), respectively, the government said in response to another query. The types of cybersecurity incidents include phishing, scanning/probing, website intrusions and defacements, virus/malicious code, targeted attacks, ATM malware, ransomware and denial of service attacks among other threats. The government had taken a series of measures to strengthen the cybersecurity infrastructure. All financial institutions had been advised by CERT-In, through the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to conduct an audit by empanelled auditors on a priority basis and take immediate steps accordingly.

Crisis plan All organisations providing digital payment services have been mandated to report cyber security incidents to CERT-In expeditiously. The government has also formulated a Cyber Crisis Management Plan for countering cyber attacks for implementation by all ministries and departments.

113. The lowdown on minimum support price for crops

WHAT IS IT? HOW DID IT COME ABOUT? WHY DOES IT MATTER? WHAT NEXT? Amid farmers’ unrest in many parts of the country, the demand for an increase in minimum support price (MSP) has been voiced regularly. A part of the agricultural price policy, MSP is the price at which the government offers to procure farmers’ produce during the season. While farmers are free to sell their produce to government agencies or in the open market, it is when market prices fall below the MSP that government agencies step in to buy the crop to protect the growers. Also, the aim is to safeguard the interest of the consumer by ensuring supplies at a reasonable price. The Cabinet Committee of Economic Affairs announces the MSP at the start of each sowing season, taking into account the recommendations of the

Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP). The key considerations, while recommending the MSP for crops, are demand and supply, production cost, price trends in the domestic and international market and the likely implications of the price on consumers. The CACP’s recommendations are in the form of price policy reports every year, separately for five groups of commodities: kharif crops, rabi crops, sugarcane, raw jute and copra. At present, agricultural commodities for which MSP is given include paddy, wheat, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, barley, ragi, gram, tur, moong, urad, lentil, groundnut, rapeseed-mustard, soyabean, sesamum, sunflower, safflower, nigerseed, copra, sugarcane, cotton and raw jute. Recognising the need to evolve a balanced and integrated price structure to serve the interests of both producers (farmers) and consumers, the Union government set up a committee on August 1, 1964 to advise the Agriculture Ministry to determine the prices of rice and wheat. The domain of coverage was expanded to coarse cereals. Later, the government decided to set up a permanent body, called the Agricultural Prices Commission, in 1965. This was renamed as the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices in 1985. To ensure remunerative price to farmers, the government procured 38.65 million tonnes of rice, 22.93 million tonnes of wheat and 1.3 million tonnes of pulses during 2016-17 in various States. The key purpose of the government’s price support policy is to provide a fair return to efficient farmers and to protect the interests of consumers by keeping the prices of food and other agriculture commodities at reasonable levels. Agricultural commodities are prone to price fluctuations: while a farmer may get a handsome return for his produce in a short supply scenario, the same commodity may fetch him a poor price during years of bumper production. MSP ensures that farmers get a minimum price for their produce in unfavourable market conditions. Also with MSP, farmers are incentivised to grow crops, which are short in supply. In the absence of support price, farmers may not find certain crops lucrative, which would lead to poor production, resulting in high prices. The MSP works as a tool to stabilise production and control consumer prices and sounds good, but farmers across the country have been facing problems of selling their produce at the minimum support price. Agricultural experts point out that there is hardly any dependable mechanism of government procurement for crops on the MSP in most parts of the country. Problems like delay in the setting up of procurement centres, exploitation by commission agents ( Arthiyas ), who most of the time buy the produce from farmers below MSP on one pretext or the other, defeat its purpose. Farming for a majority of small and marginal farmers has not been remunerative. Even though the long-term answer to farmers’ indebtedness and distress is a rise in their income, the government till then should either purchase all major crops at the MSP, as is done in the case of wheat and rice in Punjab and Haryana, or subsidise the input costs. The concern that a rise in MSP would push up the prices seems unfounded. Taking advantage of the complexities in the supply

chain, middlemen appear to be causing disparities in the price. There’s a gap between the price of the produce got from the farmer and the price it is sold to the consumer.

114. Phobos imaged by Hubble Space telescope

NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope has beamed back images of the tiny Martian moon Phobos in its orbital trek around the red planet. Over the course of 22 minutes, Hubble took 13 separate images, allowing astronomers to create a time-lapse video showing the diminutive moon’s orbital path. The Hubble observations were intended to photograph Mars, and the moon’s cameo appearance was a bonus, scientists said. A football-shaped object of size just 26x21x17 kilometres, Phobos is one of the smallest moons in the solar system. The moon completes an orbit in just seven hours and 39 minutes, which is faster than Mars rotates. Rising in the Martian west, it runs three laps around the Red Planet in the course of one Martian day, which is about 24 hours and 40 minutes. It is the only natural satellite in the solar system that circles its planet in a time shorter than the parent planet’s day. About two weeks after the Apollo 11 manned lunar landing on July 20, 1969, NASA’s Mariner 7 flew by the Red Planet and took the first crude close-up snapshot of Phobos.

115. Tiger reserves: Economic and environmental win-win

The headline in a recent PTI report “Saving 2 tigers gives more value than Mangalyaan”’ was intriguing, since it said that saving two tigers yields a capital benefit of ₹520 crores, while Mangalyaan cost us ₹450 crores. The headline was both exciting and hurtful. Excited by it, I contacted Professor Madhu Verma of the Indian Institute of Forest Management (IIFM), Bhopal, and she shared with me both a detailed report of 2015 titled: “Economic Evaluation of Tiger Reserves in India: A VALUE + Approach” (available free on the net as NTCA_Report 2015.pdf) and their recent research publication: “Making the Hidden Visible: Economic Valuation of Tiger Reserves in India” which appeared in the journal Ecosystem Services; 26 (2017): 236-244. Both were eye openers! Putting a price on Nature and commodifying it may hurt our sensibilities. On the other hand, the authors of the above paper point out that an economic analysis helps in determining the quantity of goods such as fuel wood, and fodder that can be allowed for extraction by local communities, based on trade- offs with other services. Such economic analysis also highlights why such “large” areas are reserved for preserving fierce animals like the tiger, when we need more land for human use.

What is the total amount of land set apart for the 18 ranges as tiger reserves? It is 68,000 square km, which is about 2% of the area of India – set apart for the nation’s pride animal. A tiger reserve is not just for the tiger. The six reserves (Corbett, Kanha, Kaziranga, Periyar, Ranthambore, Sunderbans) that the team has studied house many other animals such as the elephant, rhino, langur, barasingha, mongoose, river dolphin, olive ridley turtle, crocodile — not to speak of the millions of herbs, plants and trees.

What is the point in saving tigers? Why save this ferocious animal at all? Tigers are what conservationists call “umbrella” species. By saving them, we save everything beneath their ecological umbrella - everything connected to them - including the world's last great forests, whose carbon storage mitigates climate change. Vidya Venkat has written more about it in this newspaper of April 17, 2016. What all does a tiger reserve offer? The 2017 paper above lists the following: (1) employment generation, (2) agriculture (incidentally the famous IR-8 rice was discovered from the wild rice plants found in one such reserve), (3) fishing, (4) fuel wood, (5) fodder and grazing, (6) timber, (7) pollination of plants, (8) kendu leaves, (9) carbon storage and sequestration (vital for climate protection against global warming), (10) water and its purification by filtering organic wastes, (11) soil conservation, (12) nutrient cycling, and (13) moderation of extreme events such as cyclone storms, flash floods. Add to these cultural ones like tourism, education, research and development, and spiritual ones (like visiting temples within some of them). The approach, termed VALUE+, that the group uses has two components. The VALUE part indicates that the annual cost of putting together and maintaining the above six tiger reserves is about ₹23 crores. But then, what about the “flow benefits”? Take the Periyar Tiger Reserve as an example. VALUE estimates that this Reserve generates ₹17.6 billion (or ₹1.9 lakhs per hectare) per year. How? For example it helps provide water to Tamilnadu districts, amount to ₹4.05 billions /year. Or, take the famous Corbett Park (which is supposed to have the “maneaters of Kumaon”). Its flow benefit per year is ₹14.7 billion ( ₹1.14 lakhs per hectare). And it provides water to some parts of Uttar Pradesh (at ₹1.61 billion per year) and Delhi ( ₹530 million per year). In effect, the ratio of benefits to management costs is anywhere from 200 to 530. It is worth investing and managing reserves! And the + sign part in the study highlights benefits for which a monetary number is currently not possible (such as the “umbrella” mentioned above). Eye-openers, aren’t they? The should be made compulsory reading and analysis material for students in economics, business management, environmental sciences and biology. School children in cities should be taken to interact with children and parents near (and in) the reserve areas, and learn from (and respect) them. And we must support efforts to

increase and sustain the budget for such reserves - after all they cost but a few crores of rupees per reserve per year. Let us express our deep appreciation to the scientists and conservationist (the unsung heroes and heroines) at the IIFM and similar agencies for their outstanding work! Now, why the hurt by the PTI headline which said that saving 2 tigers gives more value than Mangalyaan? I felt that this bizarre comparison mocks at ISRO’S efforts. In this connection, I am reminded of the remark made by the famous biochemist Professor Erwin Chargaff during my PhD viva voce exam. He said: “Young man! Why are you studying protein structure when you should be back in India, making sulfuric acid from hay?” What we need in India is both protein structure and sulphuric acid —both Tiger Reserves and Mangalyaan. The latter may not directly help the reserves, but ISRO’S satellite surveys certainly do. Thank you ISRO!

116. India has taken its foot off the pedal

In AIDS fight, India has the resources and the expertise. It needs the political commitment For the first time since the global onset of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s, more than half of all People Living with HIV (PLHIV) now have access to HIV treatment. Globally, AIDS-related deaths have almost halved since 2005, according to the latest UNAIDS report released this week. In India, the last decade saw the incidence of deaths due to AIDS fall by a staggering 58%. However, India now faces a concentrated epidemic of HIV and is one of 10 countries contributing to over 95% of new HIV infections annually. The Hindu spoke to Eamonn Murphy, Director of UNAIDS Regional Support Team for Asia- Pacific, on the challenges ahead.

Is it misplaced to say this is the end of AIDS? That is a misplaced assumption. This kind of complacency is one of the challenges facing the HIV movement globally. The AIDS programme has become a victim of its own success. The truth is that in Asia and the Pacific, we are seeing slowing down in the decline in new infections. The region has taken the foot off the pedal and we now have concentrated epidemics. HIV does not take a vacation. It exploits these weaknesses and India shoulders a significant HIV burden. The government programme is not reaching all the people in need. Eastern and Southern African countries are miles ahead with countries showing 50% decline.

In the Indian context, what are the challenges that lie ahead? India is a complicated country as there are huge intra-State variances. Implementing a programme in India is not as easy as in other countries.

Emergence of infections in new areas is a challenge and as things stand, the focus on prevention is not too good. Sometimes centralised policy causes trouble in it being implemented at [the] State level. Targeting high-risk groups like injecting drug users or men who have sex with men (MSM) is difficult and we need to change to a model of self-testing. It will help reaching high-risk groups that face discrimination. However, the country is close to reaching its first target. Nearly 77% HIV+ people know their status. That shows the goal is within reach. Dealing with stigma and discrimination is critical too if we are to succeed. The science is there and we need political commitment.

How important is it that India continue to play its role as the pharmacy- of-the-world? India is a critical partner for the world in ensuring patients have access to affordable medicines. India played a central role in the global AIDS response and now with making a generic version of the Hepatitis C drug. For this reason, it is important that the Indian government protects its capacity to utilise provisions under [the] TRIPS agreement to make and export affordable generic medicines. Low- and middle-income countries depend on India to remain the pharmacy of the world.

It is ironic that while India supplies medicines to the world, our own HIV community is facing stock-outs for drugs and testing kits. The real issue in India is about the supply chain and making sure that drugs do not run out. Some areas, States have too much and other don’t have any medicines. UNAIDS has partnered with the Indian government to adopt a situation room model. We are developing a single information system for the HIV programme which will give authorities real-time information and ensure that States and provinces synchronise. The Indian government has increased its budget allocation for HIV and now funds almost 80% of the budget domestically. This makes the programme robust and sustainable. The government just needs to address the supply and distribution systems.

Do you think it is necessary for India to bring together the TB and HIV programmes? Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death for people with HIV. Simple economics dictates that these two programmes be brought together so [that] patients can be screened for both diseases at the same public health facility. It makes a lot of sense for the delivery system as well. Merging HIV and TB programmes is good public health and good economics. These two programmes cannot be

implemented in separate silos. In fact, the biggest multilateral donor, The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM), is encouraging joint funding proposals for TB-HIV because of this rationale. The tuberculosis programme can learnt a lot from the HIV response.

How important is it for India to redouble its investments in the AIDS response? We’ve seen all sorts of countries reach HIV targets. India has the resources and the expertise; it needs the political commitment. The epidemic needs to be addressed where it is happening. It is important to empower patients and communities. The government needs to focus on testing and treatment options as early as possible. Otherwise, we will annually just keep adding more people to the pool of those who need treatment.

117. Trading away health

Hyderabad, the historic ‘City of Pearls,’ well known as the hub of the Indian pharmaceuticals industry, ranks third globally in terms of its production volume, with a turnover of ₹18 billion a year. Most of the generic medicines and vaccines manufactured here are what help India become known as the ‘pharmacy of the developing world.’ What does this ‘pharmacy’ mean to the organisation, Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF)? As a treatment provider, our medical teams are often stuck without appropriate and affordable access to medicines and vaccines that we need to care for people in our programmes. For example, in the early 2000s, the price set by pharmaceutical corporations to provide one person with HIV treatment for a year was more than $10,000, limiting our ability to respond to the epidemic. At the time, each day, more than 500 people in South Africa alone were dying of AIDS-related illnesses. Fortunately, the introduction of generic competition from India drove prices down, by putting an end to the monopolies that allowed companies to charge unconscionably high prices that put treatment out of reach for people who needed it. Those same medicines are today priced at just $100 per person per year — a decrease of 99% from 2000. The availability of affordable generic medicines has allowed MSF, ministries of health and global treatment providers to scale up access to lifesaving HIV treatments, with more than 18 million people on treatment globally today. Generic competition is a proven way to promote access to low-cost generic medicines needed by millions of people worldwide, not just for HIV, but for many other diseases including TB, viral hepatitis and cancer. Yet, the benefits of robust generic medicines competition may not be available to people in need in the future.

Next week, Hyderabad will host the 19th round of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) talks– a regional trade deal between India, the 10 member states of ASEAN, and their major Asia-Pacific trading partners, Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea. The stakes are high; if certain proposed provisions vis-à-vis intellectual property (IP) monopolies are adopted at this meeting, the repercussions may be permanently damaging for people’s access to affordable medicines the world over. The RCEP negotiations have been shrouded in secrecy, with limited opportunities for meaningful inputs from health ministries and health experts. Yet, leaked drafts of the negotiating texts reveal proposals put forward by Japan and South Korea that threaten to undermine access to medicines in a number of ways. For example, Japan’s proposal for ‘patent-term extensions’ may mean that people have to wait another five years after the expiry of the mandatory 20-year patent monopoly before cheaper versions of new lifesaving medicines can be produced. This delay will necessarily affect the most vulnerable people who are in urgent need of reasonably-priced medicines. Putting up barriers Japan and South Korea are also demanding a ‘data exclusivity’ period of “no less than five years.” Data exclusivity creates a barrier to entry for generic producers, even when patents no longer apply or exist. India has purposely not adopted data exclusivity, and introducing it via RCEP would mean additional delays in approvals of low-cost generic medicines, which in turn will restrict access. Already, pharmaceutical corporations have successfully pushed for increasingly restrictive IP monopoly provisions to be adopted around the world. In the U.S. and Europe, where restrictive IP provisions are in place, high medicine prices are crippling health-care systems. For example, in the U.S., some cancer treatments are priced at more than $100,000 per person per treatment course; and a new hepatitis C medicine was introduced at $1,000 per pill. In Europe, governments are forced to ration expensive new hepatitis C treatments, which could benefit millions more people than those who currently have access. In Greece, in our efforts to protect refugee children at risk of highly-contagious pneumonia, the number one childhood killer globally, MSF had to pay about $68 per dose for the pneumonia vaccine — over 20 times more than the lowest global price available. Despite this, Japan and South Korea are aiming to boost the monopoly control of pharmaceutical corporations and are stepping up pressure on IP issues in the negotiating rounds. When the talks begin in Hyderabad, it’s crucial that RCEP negotiators from India and ASEAN countries protect existing safeguards for access to medicines. As treatment providers, we have watched too many people die because the medicines they need to stay alive or healthy are too expensive. And everyone

knows a family member, a friend or a colleague who has difficulty paying for medicines because they cost too much. We cannot allow RCEP to threaten lives and shut down the pharmacy of the developing world.

118. ‘India’s labour laws are anti-employment’

Singapore Deputy PM seeks urgent reforms to ensure demographic dividend does not turn into crisis India’s labour laws are anti-employment, Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said on Saturday Terming jobs as the country’s biggest challenge that must be addressed urgently in order to avert a demographic crisis, he suggested giving real authority to cities and states to ‘move the boundaries’ of contentious labour and land legislations. ‘Biggest challenge’ “India’s biggest challenge is jobs,” he said. The country has lost a lot of time because you have legislation that is really anti-employment, an education system that has not prepared people for the needs of the modern economy – (both at the school and tertiary levels) – and it’s now a race against technology, which we all face,” Mr. Shanmugaratnam said. He was delivering the inaugural address at Delhi Economics Conclave. Warning that the window of opportunity for labour-intensive economic activity is narrowing, he said the pace of adoption of artificial intelligence and robots in the manufacturing process will accelerate and robots are already being deployed in Indian speciality chemicals and automobile industries. “Robots may cost more capital now, but in return, you get high quality and productivity as unfortunately, robots don’t take breaks, and [there is] high certainty of future costs. And they are getting cheaper so this is a real challenge,” he said. While lauding the country’s recent efforts in skill development the Singapore Deputy Prime Minister said the link with jobs and placements is weak and the tertiary education system is divorced from market realities. “Academic training is useful, but skills give jobs. India faces this more acutely, because you have a larger discord between education and the markets,” he commented while calling for measured and concerted efforts to ensure that the country’s demographic dividend of a young workforce doesn’t become a demographic crisis in the years to come. Level playing field

“Whether it is services or manufacturing, India has a problem of far too many small scale enterprises unable to move up to a higher level,” Mr. Shanmugaratnam said and called for special efforts from the government to ensure that there is a level playing field for businesses and incumbent players aren’t protected. “The firms that already have the lead have a way of capturing regulation so that their lead is preserved and new entrants are deterred. The task of government – local and federal – has to be level the playing field,” he said, adding that this could, in fact, be the biggest benefit of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime over time as producers in different States can now compete more effectively. While lauding India’s infrastructure building efforts and macro-economic stability in recent years, the Singapore Deputy Prime Minister said there is still a long way to go and pointed out that the gap between laggard and advanced States, for instance, was becoming wider. “This is the failure of domestic and local strategies and it can be fixed,” he said, after referring to a global trend where people’s trust in domestic institutions, be it governments, Parliament or media is eroding faster than their trust in global institutions. The fact that India is now the leader among large countries in universal digital identification and providing a unified payment interface is really impressive. You have leapfrogged the rest of the world,” Mr.Shanmugaratnam said. “The intangible change in the culture and building political support for good economics is the main lesson from India in recent years. The job’s not done yet, but it’s impressive how the culture is changing, how corruption and invisible money is being tackled,” he said. Reacting to a query on reports about Singapore proposing restrictions on movement of temporary workers, he saidthe country’s deputy PM said they were the strongest proponents of liberalisation for goods and services but movement of people across boundaries was not a services trade issue per se . “Let’s take a step back and understand – we are very clear of the benefits that come to society from free trade of goods and services. There are also benefits from movement of people and capital, especially long term capital. The movement of people has to operate within some framework of constraints – this is a reality not just because of Trump in the U.S. or Brexit in the U.K., but all over the world,” he said. “When you talk of a society like Singapore, which is small geographically, with 5.5 million people of whom 3.5 million are locals and the rest are already foreigners… it would be mindless to have an open border without any policy framework to restrain the flow of people into your job market. It would be

wrong politics and wrong economics as well. Singapore will never be Dubai, let me put it this way,” he remarked.

119. The boycott ban

Maharashtra’s law criminalising social ostracism is a template for other States Maharashtra’s new law prohibiting the social boycott of individuals, families or any community by informal village councils is a step in the right direction, given the pervasive nature of the problem. The progressive legislation, which received Presidential assent recently and was gazetted earlier this month, targets the pernicious practice of informal caste panchayats or dominant sections using ostracism as a means of enforcing social conformity. The Maharashtra Protection of People from Social Boycott (Prevention, Prohibition and Redressal) Act, 2016, may serve as a template for similar legislation in other States. The Act lists over a dozen types of actions that may amount to ‘social boycott’, which has been made a criminal offence punishable with imprisonment up to three years or a fine of Rs. 1 lakh or both. The practices it prohibits range from preventing the performance of a social or religious custom, denial of the right to perform funerals or marriages, cutting off someone’s social or commercial ties to preventing access to educational or medical institutions or community halls and public facilities, or any form of social ostracism on any ground. The law recognises the human rights dimension to issues of social boycott, as well as the varied forms in which it occurs in a caste-based society. Its progressive sweep takes into account discrimination on the basis of morality, social acceptance, political inclination, sexuality, which it prohibits. It even makes it an offence to create cultural obstacles by forcing people to wear a particular type of clothing or use a particular language. This is not the first law of its type. Bombay enacted a law against excommunication in 1949, but it was struck down by the Supreme Court in 1962 after the Dawoodi Bohra community successfully argued that it violated the community’s constitutional right to manage its own religious affairs. One hopes the latest Act will not be vulnerable to legal challenge. Article 17 of the Constitution and the Protection of Civil Rights Act outlaw untouchability in all its forms, but these are legal protections intended for the Scheduled Castes. In reality, members of various castes and communities also require such protection from informal village councils and gatherings of elders who draw on their own notions of conformity, community discipline, morality and social mores to issue diktats to the village or the community to cut off ties with supposedly offending persons and families. The case of a mountaineer from Raigad is somewhat notorious. He had conquered Mt. Everest but could not escape a social boycott in his village because his wife wore jeans and did not

wear a mangalsutra. It is not a proud moment for a country when special legislation is required to prohibit social discrimination, ostracism and practices repugnant to human dignity. Yet, given the prevailing circumstances, any legislative assault on abhorrent social practices ought to be welcomed.

120. Spanish steps: On the secession vote in Catalonia

Madrid pulls out all the stops ahead of the secession vote in Catalonia Ahead of the controversial October 1 referendum on secession in Catalonia, the Spanish government’s awkward move of tightening the purse-strings could prove politically costly. There is cause for concern that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's meddling with the financial priorities of Barcelona will play into the hands of the separatists. A veteran of many a crisis, Mr. Rajoy recently issued instructions to the regional government to ensure that not a single euro earmarked for development activities is diverted to the vote. The decision requiring weekly certification follows a judicial declaration that all expenditure towards the vote were unconstitutional. Recourse to such seemingly stringent measures has predictably drawn flak from Catalan leaders, who were already embittered that the province is being denied its due share of the overall tax revenues. Madrid’s mainstream political parties are opposed to the long- standing demand of Catalonia for independent statehood. Riding on the overwhelming support in the national parliament, Mr. Rajoy’s centre-right coalition is determined to block the proposed independence referendum. The government is even contemplating the invocation of Article 155 of the constitution to exercise direct authority over the north-eastern region in the event of a worst-case scenario. The country’s constitutional court is widely expected to rule that any referendum, as well as secession from the union, is violative of the constitution. But that is where legalese ends and politics inevitably takes over. After holding several symbolic independence votes across many municipalities over the past decade, Catalan nationalists sense that what once seemed a distant dream could one day be turned into reality. The economic and social upheaval following the bursting of the Spanish housing bubble after the 2007-8 financial crisis, local problems were deflected on to the national stage. The 2015 election of the regional government, with a known pro-independence bent, might have been a reflection of this shift in perception. A perception among Catalan youth that the national government is clamping down on democratic expression could only strain the already delicate equation between Madrid and Barcelona. Recent history casts a remarkably sobering light on how much politicians can count on rational arguments to hold sway over popular sentiment. Britain’s vote to leave the European Union is just one example. Mr. Rajoy has earned a reputation for exercising caution to a fault during his premiership. His conciliatory tone, for instance, on Catalonia’s fiscal autonomy, a demand he

had rejected some years ago, may yet open a window. The call issued by the opposition socialist leader, Pedro Sánchez, for more federal powers could similarly soothe tensions. Madrid must look to expand this spirit of accommodation.

121. Taming inflationary expectations

Who’d have thought under the MPC, the first case of deviation of the inflation rate would undershoot the target? The official inflation rate dipped to 1.5% last month , the lowest in almost two decades. Inflation is a politically more sensitive challenge than joblessness for the simple reason that it affects everyone, whether you have a job or not. India’s long-term record in managing inflation has been very impressive when compared with most developing countries. We have never had the bouts of hyperinflation experienced in many Latin American economies or seen even in countries such as Israel. The relatively high double-digit inflation experienced between 2010 to 2013 was an aberration, which had a political consequence. There have been very few instances of such persistent, multi-year, high inflationary episodes in our history. The credit for this goes to the vigilance of the political system and also to effective monetary management. Inflation is after all a monetary phenomenon — more money chasing fewer goods. So, controlling money supply is part of the strategy for controlling inflation.

Food prices as indicator But inflation is also an indicator of whether there is an excess demand or supply of goods. For instance, with a bumper crop of fruits and vegetables, prices plunge, even though money supply might be unchanged. Indeed, the recent drop in the inflation rate has been caused by a steep fall in the prices of vegetables (-17%) and pulses (- 22%). Conversely, and rather ironically, unseasonal rains in the north have destroyed a large part of the tomato crop causing prices to skyrocket. Food prices, especially of perishables, are notoriously volatile. High onion prices, even if temporary, have caused the downfall of governments in past elections. Food prices are a big component in the determinant of the overall inflation rate based on the consumer price index basket. Keeping them low and stable involves policies such as public procurement and a minimum support price regime. Inflation control thus involves a combination of monetary management along with measures to increase supply of goods (in the medium term) as also anti-hoarding measures or the release of stocks from government warehouses. Even though price stability is an important goal of government policy, it is now an exclusive mandate given to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Last year, in a landmark reform of monetary management, the government officially gave an

inflation target to the RBI. Prior to this, the central bank had multiple objectives which included enhancing growth and reducing unemployment, although price stability was undoubtedly paramount. The new paradigm, called the “flexible inflation targeting” framework, aims for a numerical target given by the government. The main tool to achieve it is by setting the benchmark interest rate. This decision is now taken by thesix-member monetary policy committee (MPC) , chaired by the Governor. The current inflation target is 4% plus or minus 2%. The MPC is deemed to have failed if for three consecutive quarters the inflation rate falls outside the band.

Low inflation pointer Who would have imagined that in the new MPC regime, the first instance of deviation of the inflation rate would undershoot, not overshoot the target? Of course, technically, the MPC has not failed, for the June inflation rate of 1.5%, which is below 2%, may be transitory. However, there are strong indications and forecasts by many economists that point to low inflation in the coming months. Those numbers may be in the range of 2 to 4%. How did we get to this low inflation scenario? Partly it must be because the money supply has been kept “dear”, or tight. Thus, the benchmark rate (called the repo rate, or the rate at which the RBI gives money to banks) at 6.25% may be too high. Interest rates are the “price” of money, so if they are too high, money becomes scarce. If it is lowered, then there will be more money in circulation, more loans given out. But low inflation is also because of a steep fall in prices of fruits, vegetables and pulses, none of which was caused by high interest rates. These steep falls are highly seasonal. We have also benefited from low and stable crude oil prices, which are a crucial determinant of transport and energy costs. All eyes will now be on the MPC which meets again in less than two weeks. There is a strong feeling that high interest rates have deterred big industrial investments, or housing finance. High rates are crippling borrowers who try to come out of near-bankruptcy and are preventing a restructuring of stressed bank loans. India’s real interest rates, i.e. net of inflation, are quite high even compared to other developing countries. Much of the developed world has ultra-low rates, with some countries such as Sweden, Switzerland and Japan even having negative interest rates. India needs much lower rates for higher GDP growth. But the job of the MPC won’t be easy. This is mainly because its task is to target future inflation, not the past. The future has some troubling portents. The short run impact of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) is bound to be inflationary. That’s because a bulk of India’s GDP is in services whose tax rate has moved from 15% to 18%. Besides, while sellers wait for their refund, i.e. input tax credit under the GST, their cost of capital locked up might go up. Many State governments have introduced additional levies to counter their

apprehension of a loss of revenue under the GST. Besides the GST, there is the impact of the award of the Seventh Pay Commission to government employees. This effect will cascade to public sector organisations and State-level employees as well, and put pressure on prices. A third factor could be the loan waivers announced in some States which can cause fiscal stress. High deficit spending is not compatible with lower interest rates. A fourth factor is the uptick in commodity prices worldwide as metals and food prices are looking up. The last, and probably the most important, factor weighing on the MPC’s mind would be inflation expectations. Household surveys conducted by the RBI indicate that people are expecting inflation to be close to 10% , not the 1.5% as is reported now. You may say that these expectations are irrational, but they do affect behaviour. In this season of salary increments, try giving someone a raise of 2%, as is common in the developed world. Workers will howl. Even their official dearness allowance is much higher. The real challenge is to slay this inflation expectations monster. In much of the western world, they are fighting disinflation if not outright deflation. But in India we are still struggling with inflationary conditions and expectations. In English the verb for inflation is inflate. It refers to rising prices. But in most Indian languages, the equivalent word in usage is “mehengaai ”, which refers to affordability and cost of living. Not all inflation is unwelcome. So if stock prices go up, that is good cheer. But “ mehengaai ” is hated by all. A low and stable inflation rate is a perquisite for sustained high economic growth. Mehengaai is antithetical to it. In the medium term, the growth impact of the GST, the improving ease of doing business — and hence increasing supply of goods — and a strong domestic currency, will all help keep inflation low. But the short run challenge is to temper inflationary expectations and keep them tethered.

122. The Vice President’s mien

The contest is between two ideas of India, between the politics of vision and that of power play At this moment in India’s history, the lesser between the presidential and the vice presidential contests has become the more important one. It is not just a contest between two persons, or between two political coalitions, or even between two ideologies. It is, in effect, a battle between two ideas of what India aspired to be during its struggle for freedom and what India should be. Much indeed is at stake. If the contest for the President was mere tokenism — your Dalit candidate versus mine — the vice presidential contest, in contrast, is substantial since the choice is actually one between a politics of vision and a politics of hard-headed power play. When the Office of the Vice President has little ability to impact politics, except in the conduct of the proceedings of the Rajya Sabha or when there is a

vacancy due to death of the President, why is the ruling dispensation so fearful of making a gesture towards that other important strand of Indian politics, thedharmic path of public life? Politics, we have learnt from early Greece, is more than just the exercise of power. It is also public ethics. So why is Prime Minister Narendra Modi so scared of finding a consensus candidate who is not a party person and who, when the moment requires, will remind the government of the dharmic path from which it has strayed? Why is the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) turning its back on this important Indian cultural trope, at a moment when it is strongest, and treating the idea of dharmic path as a foreign concept? Was not the first Vice President of India, S. Radhakrishnan, a philosopher of Indian religion and culture? Is not the current Vice President a man of letters? So why choose a party loyalist?

Ethics, pragmatics, symbolism Most of us regard such political decisions as describing a political calculus, a zero-sum game where the winner takes all. This, unfortunately, is politics in its lowest form. From treatises offered in the Arthashastra , to the discourses on dharma in the Mahabharata , through the debates in the Constituent Assembly, to the leadership of the Non-Aligned Movement and the global decolonisation process where we spoke of a new world order, the Indian state has regarded politics as more than just pragmatics. India reflected on and represented a richer model of politics where ethics, pragmatics, and symbolism (form instance, in the choice of the dharma chakra as our symbol) all combined, in their best moments, to give our politics a superior quality. Mahatma Gandhi took on the might of the corrupt British Empire by combining such elements. He was the master-practitioner of the rich politics of ahimsa and satyagraha . That is why we got our swaraj . Jawaharlal Nehru, B.R. Ambedkar and the many others who dreamt of a new India also strove to practise such politics as they fought the deceptions of the British Raj. In this fight, their weapons were fashioned from the ethical, the pragmatic, and the symbolic. Take khadi. It is made up of all the three. Khadi represents the material, but also the cultural and the political. To therefore reduce politics to only one aspect, to its pragmatics alone, as the NDA regime is doing, is to reject what India has stood for across the ages. Why have we sunk so low? But then it may be too much to expect that those indoctrinated in the ideological camps of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) will be able to imagine an expansive India, one where power does not flow from the danda (stick) but from the shabd (words). Ethical options, unfortunately, are not on the menu of a pracharak . The mental training in a shakha does not prepare one to see and value the finer and softer, but more powerful, aspects of political rule. Earlier in this article, I had said that the vice presidential contest this time is the more important of the two contests even though so little at stake. Let me

elaborate. The VP cannot hold up a bill by delaying assent. Nor can he reprimand the government or dismiss Governors when they incur his displeasure. The Vice President is only a constitutional safeguard when the President dies, a twelfth man. And yet, the triumvirate of Bhagwat-Modi-Shah finds itself unable to transcend the petty mentality of party politics and choose the dharmic path to seek a candidate who enjoys bipartisan support, who can be the conscience of the polity. It is this partisanship that has led me to claim that the lesser contest is the more important one. When little is at stake, especially in such a conceptually rich civilisation as India’s, it becomes important for those at the helm to think beyond the exercise of power, beyond state capture and the imposition of a one-sided political will. Great leaders build into their rule space for intellectuals, ethicists, poets, and artists. Dissenters are regarded as a vital element of good governance, for they speak what others are loath to utter. Akbar had Birbal, a Hindu, as his adviser. Nehru laughed along with the cartoonist Shankar at the cartoons that lampooned the Prime Minister.

No consensus candidate However, today, the leaders find themselves unable to choose a consensus candidate who will embody the virtues that a polity requires, who will be seen by the people as non-partisan, who will represent the India that needs healing. Such gestures of genuflection towards a higher purpose produce in those watching a sense of that very purpose. Every polity requires such gestures and such acknowledgement, for a polity cannot survive on power alone. It will soon degenerate into tyranny and paranoia. By its decision to reject the idea of a consensus candidate, the NDA has announced that the contest for the Vice President’s office is politically important. There are three possible reasons for such obstinacy. The first concerns the habit element: use this opportunity to show the Opposition that they will be not listened to. The second is narrow-mindedness. Years of shaka training debilitate the mind. People are seen as either friends or enemies and hence the issue is not one of the nation but that of party politics. It is impossible to imagine a larger goal for which both parties will willingly accept a compromise. However, it the third reason that is the most disquieting. Is this being seen as an opportunity to, once and for all, belittle the place of the Mahatma in our national imaginary? Does this mark a second Savarkar-Gandhi face-off? Savarkar lost round one at Independence. We now have a situation where the 57 MPs from Tamil Nadu and 37 MPs from Gujarat have to decide on a candidate who is the grandson of both Rajaji and Gandhiji. From their choice we will know the present status of the face-off.

123. The importance of being earnest

The institutionalised feedback mechanism has helped to address readers’ concerns in a measured manner The irony was stark yet illuminating. On July 22, 2017, when we were having our fifth Open House, the first one in Delhi, there was a report by Jackie Spinner titled “Public editors disappear as media distrust grows” in the Columbia Journalism Review . When I shifted from being a journalist to an ombudsman, my immersive induction to the job came from the United States’s experience. A decade ago, the U.S. had about 40 news ombudsmen and today the number has dwindled to four by most estimates. U.S. publishers seem to believe that an ombudsman is redundant in this era of user-generated content that floods the digital space.

Human intervention Every Open House we held since 2013 reaffirmed our belief that there is a need for human intervention to retain trust and credibility in this age of anonymous communication. While it is easy to talk about the rules and the codes, the ethics and the laws, and the values and principles that govern journalism among the practitioners, it is difficult to explain the full import of these terms to general readers. The idea of self-regulation is to embed media literacy as an integral part of news. Readers are informed about the changing information landscape like they are informed about the polity, economy and society, a task that cannot be performed by random tweets or passionate posts in cyberspace. While cyberspace may have given an opportunity to many to express themselves, the question that remains unanswered is whether their voices are heard? What are the requisites of the institution of an independent news ombudsman? It is a four-way covenant that involves the reader, editor, management and the ombudsman, where each agrees to hand over some of powers in exchange for a fair and credible mechanism that ensures accountability. There are fine lines that should be respected and not breached, even inadvertently, for this mechanism to succeed. The toughest part of the job is to draw the line between the polyphony of multiple voices and the cacophony of concurrent monologues. Some of the frequently asked questions are: how do you process inputs from the readers? What are the responses of the editors and the journalists of The Hindu to the suggestions from the readers? How effective has this system been for the newspaper? It would be extremely presumptuous to assume that the 139-year-old newspaper began listening to its readers only over the last decade once this office came to existence. However, there is a difference between the earlier feedback mechanism and the current one. Here we try to inform readers when their suggestions could not be implemented for various reasons. For instance, one reader wanted the

newspaper to have a daily fact-check column that looks at each statement of politicians, bureaucrats and diplomats. He also wanted us to alert the general public about the trending fake news on social media on a real-time basis. It is a worthwhile suggestion but it needs enormous human and financial resources. Indian English newspapers, with a highly subsidised cover price and facing pressure from digital freebies, can move into this segment only if we have a fair pricing policy. Another issue that comes up often during the Open House is regarding the ideal content mix for a particular edition. How much of the hyper-local and local news should there be in each edition? What should be the share of national news? Is it possible for a multi-edition newspaper to produce completely different newspapers for various cities? What should be the space for “good news” amidst our daily dose of “bad news”? One of the readers said that the amount of bad news in the newspaper increased his blood pressure and wanted an equal dose of good news. The institutionalised feedback mechanism has helped to address these concerns in a measured manner. The editorial team, while retaining the core characteristics of The Hindu , has worked out the details to have regional and sub-regional variants to fulfil the requirements of a specific readership in a geographical segment. It is a process where continuity and change are in consonance with each other, where the introduction of a new segment does not subsume the importance of the existing segments. These unobtrusive shifts in emphasis in some of the sections of the newspaper are based on the feedback we have received from the readers.

124. All for one, one for all? If not designed right, well-meaning policies do not necessarily change lives “One of the great mistakes is to judge policies and programmes by their intentions rather than their results,” said legendary American economist Milton Friedman in a television interview in 1975. Friedman was pointing out to the precious fact that policies that look fair and just at first sight often end up hurting the very people they were supposed to help. Today, his words of wisdom can help Kerala in dealing with its discontented nurses. Nurses in the southern State called off their indefinite strike recently after the State government agreed to their demand for a minimum wage of at least Rs. 20,000 per month. Supporters of the higher minimum wage promised by the government believe that nurse wages are presently set too low by private hospitals arbitrarily. So, they say, it is justified that the government intervenes to protect the rights of nurses. As much as the argument of these do-gooders sounds convincing, the higher minimum wage will not benefit the nurses. If properly implemented, a

higher minimum wage can indeed force private hospitals to pay higher wages for nurses. But it will do little to prevent hospitals from reducing the number of nurses that they employ, or take other steps to adjust to the reality of higher nurse wages. This is because, contrary to what many believe, wages are not determined arbitrarily by private hospitals. Availability of labour Instead, nurse wages simply reflect the relative scarcity of labour, a fact that hospitals need to take into account when they decide to employ nurses. So, a relatively large supply of nurses causes their wages to drop and allows hospitals to employ more nurses. Conversely, when the supply of nurses is relatively small, it results in higher wages that push hospitals to employ fewer nurses. A minimum wage set by the government, in other words, will do very little to change the underlying reality of the supply of nurses in India far outstripping demand — which explains their low wages. Instead, as mentioned, the minimum wage will only prevent hospitals from fully absorbing the available supply of nurses — except in very rare, unrealistic cases. The newly proposed minimum wage of Rs. 20,000, in fact, is far above the prevailing market rate for nurses. So it is only a matter of time before hospitals retrench their nursing staff, lower their working hours, or, if possible, automate their roles. If the nurse unions resist such cost-saving measures by hospitals, hospitals will look to accommodate them under political pressure. This can, of course, prop up the wages of nurses belonging to unions by artificially restricting the supply of nursing services. But it won’t come without any cost. Non-unionised nurses willing to work for cheaper wages will be stopped from competing against the unions, and instead forced to look for other jobs that pay lower. So, while the minimum wage looks like a tool to empower all nurses, in reality, it works against the interests of the weaker ones who lack political voice.

125. MPC members to get ₹₹₹1.5 lakh per meet, must disclose assets

RBI panel will need to observe ‘silent period’ 7 days before and after rate decision The government appointees on the powerful Monetary Policy Committee will be paid ₹1.5 lakh per meeting along with air travel and other reimbursements, but will need to observe a “silent period” seven days before and after the rate decision for “utmost confidentiality”. The silent period and confidentiality requirements will also apply to the three RBI members, including the Governor, on the panel that has been deciding on policy rates since October last year, the central bank has said.

‘Conflict of interest’ The members of the RBI Governor-chaired panel, which has to hold meetings at least four times in a year, are also required to be mindful of any conflict between their personal and public interest while interacting with profit making organisations and making personal financial transactions, the Reserve Bank said in its newly notified regulations for functioning of the committee. The six-member MPC, constituted in September 2016, has three persons appointed by the central government while the rest, including the Governor, are from the RBI. The members appointed by the government would “receive a remuneration of ₹1,50,000 for devoting time and work for each meeting of the committee... which they attend and other expenses relating to air travel, local transportation and accommodation as may be decided by the central board from time to time,” as per the regulations. The panel is required to meet at least four times in a year and the RBI has been convening a bi-monthly meeting of this committee. Chetan Ghate, professor at the Indian Statistical Institute, Pami Dua, director at the Delhi School of Economics and Ravindra H Dholakia, professor at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad are the three government- appointed members. Their appointment is for a period of four years or until further orders, whichever is earlier. Apart from RBI Governor Urjit Patel, Deputy Governor Viral V Acharya and Executive Director M.D. Patra are also part of the committee. The regulations do not mention whether any separate allowance would be given to the RBI members on the committee. Earlier this year, Mr. Patel and his deputies got a big pay increase with the government more than doubling their basic salary to ₹2.5 lakh and ₹2.25 lakh per month, respectively. The “basic pay of the Governor and Deputy Governors” have been revised retrospectively with effect from January 1, 2016, and marks a huge jump from ₹90,000 basic pay so far drawn by the Governor and ₹80,000 for his deputies. According to the Monetary Policy Committee and Monetary Policy Process Regulations, 2016, MPC members should also take adequate precaution to ensure utmost confidentiality of its policy decision before that is made public and preserve confidentiality about the decision making process, These regulations were notified by the RBI earlier this month.

“While interacting with profit-making organisations or making personal financial decisions, they shall be mindful of, and weigh carefully, any scope for conflict between personal interest and public interest,” the regulations said. Each member of the MPC has one vote and in case the numbers are equal, the governor has the casting vote. The MPC, which has the responsibility of achieving a set inflation target, should submit a report to the government in case of failure to achieve the required target. In such instances, the report shall be sent to the central government “within one month from the date on which the bank has failed to meet the inflation target“. The regulations further said the schedule of the MPC meetings for the entire fiscal year needs to be announced in advance. At least 15 days of notice is required for convening a meeting ordinarily, but an emergency meeting can be called with 24 hours notice for each member and technology-enabled arrangements need to be made for even shorter notice period meetings.

Annual disclosure All members need to disclose their assets and liabilities and update this information once every year. “Members shall observe a silent or blackout period starting seven days before the voting/decision ray and ending seven days after the day policy is announced. During this period, they will avoid public comment on issues related to monetary policy other than through the MPC’s communication framework,” the RBI said. Also, members cannot reveal outside the committee any confidential information accessed during the monetary policy deliberations. After conclusion of MPC meeting, a resolution needs to be made public including on the policy repo rate and any other monetary policy measures at the discretion of the Chairperson while keeping in view the functioning and timing of financial markets.