System Science Fundamentals

ESS scope and perspectives Global Energy Balance Definition of climate change; component contributions; relative importance Greenhouse warming definition Climate Feedback Factor Challenges of Climate Change Research

Extreme weather and climate: societal impacts and predictions • Societal impacts an costs of extremes • Extreme weather types, affecting N. America • Sources, and limit of predictability • Prediction tools • Why emphasis on S2S? • Key drivers of S2S predictability: MJO, ENSO, polar vortices, roles of stratosphere, QBO… IPCC AR5

• Key findings from observations (know change magnitudes by order of estimates) Atmosphere, Ocean, Sea Level change Cryosphere, Carbon and Biogeochemical Cycles

• Future Projections Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP’s) Water Cycle, Air Quality, Ocean, Arctic Sea Ice, Sea level Climate stabilization time scales

The Coupled Ocean Atmosphere System • The TOGA program • The Walker Circulation, definition of Southern Oscillation, ENSO, definition and phenomenology SST and Teleconnections • Monsoon-ENSO connection, IOD • TAV, Atlantic SST dipole, Sahel • NAO, PDO , definition and climatic influences • Global warming Hiatus The Thermohaline Circulation

• Why does THC exist? Relationship to heat transport. • Wind vs. density (salinity and temperature) driven ocean circulations, • Climatic consequences of THC • Sources of THC variability, sources and role of fresh water fluxes, • Stability of THC • Possible scenarios of global warming induced THC changes and climatic impacts Climate Feedback, Cryospheric Processes • Basic concepts: relationship to climate feedback • Water vapor feedback • Cloud feedback basics; why large uncertainties? • The Iris hypothesis and implications • Ice- feedback; the Budyko model • Components of the Cryosphere • Current States of Artic sea-ice • Threats of by melting of Greenland ice • Current states of Greenland and Antarctic glacier The Carbon Cycle

• Units of carbon measures, Pentagram (1015 gm) Carbon (PgC, GtT) • Major sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon • The “Missing carbon”. How is it estimated? • Carbon Cycle-Climate feedback • Anthropogenic (abrupt) climate change vs. glacial-interglacier natural change . • Carbon mitigation: Stablization wedges • Proposed actions, and expected results • Carbon and economics Extreme Weather and Climate: societal impacts and predictions • Societal impacts and costs of extreme weather and climates • Types of extremes affecting N. America • Sources and limit of predictability • Prediction tools • Why S2S emphasis? • Key drivers of S2S predictability: MJO, ENSO, NAO, PDO, stratosphere, QBO…