Magnitude Distribution of Linear Morphogenic Earthquakes in the Mediterranean Region: Insights from Palaeoseismological and Historical Data

Geophys. J. Int. (2008) 174, 930–940 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03834.x

Magnitude distribution of linear morphogenic earthquakes in the Mediterranean region: insights from palaeoseismological and historical data

R. Caputo,1 M. Mucciarelli2 and S. Pavlides3 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ferrara, Ferrara, Italy. E-mail: [email protected] 2DiSGG, University of Basilicata, Potenza, Italy 3Department of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/174/3/930/605009 by guest on 29 September 2021 Accepted 2008 April 28. Received 2008 April 28; in original form 2007 November 16

ABSTRACT We analyse the earthquake magnitude distribution of ‘linear morphogenic earthquakes’ that reactivated dip-slip normal faults within the Mediterranean region. Information on past events is obtained following two distinct methodological approaches: the geological one (morphotectonic investigations and palaeoseismological excavations) and the historical one (contemporaneous descriptions and surveys of coseismic ruptures). In order to homogenize the different data sets, and, therefore, enabling a comparison, we calculate moment magnitudes (M w) start- ing from seismic moments (M 0) estimates. The cumulative distributions thus obtained for the two data sets show differences that a series of non-parametric tests suggests to be statistically significant. Coseismic displacements are systematically overestimated for strong (M w > 6.5) historically based earthquakes and for moderate (5.0–6.0) palaeoseismologically observed events. Also concerning the rupture length, the geological information generally provides larger values for moderate earthquakes. The possible causes of this discrepancy and the consequences in using the two data sets for seismic hazard assessment analyses are also discussed. Key words: Probability distributions; Geomorphology; Earthquake source observations; Palaeoseismology; Statistical seismology; Continental tectonics: extensional. GJI Seismology The methodological approach is typically ‘historical’ and, for the INTRODUCTION sake of simplicity, in the following we will label the corresponding An essential attribute of seismic catalogues is represented by the data with H. Conversely, the second data set is based on quantita- cumulative distribution of magnitudes and this is a crucial statis- tive information obtained from palaeoseismological excavations and tical characteristic in many seismological investigations and seis- morphotectonic investigations of active faults. The methodological mic hazard assessment (SHA) analyses. In the last decade(s), the approach is purely ‘geological’ and in the following we will label historical catalogues have been largely and almost exclusively ex- the corresponding data with G. ploited during the preparation of seismic hazard maps. However, Among the different ways used to infer the size of pre- quantitative geological information concerning the principal seis- instrumental earthquakes, probably the more effective one is that motectonic parameters of active faults is rapidly increasing, and based on the estimate of the seismic moment (M 0), provided the prin- Earthquake Geology approaches and investigations are rapidly dif- cipal seismotectonic parameters are known. Indeed, it is also pos- fusing worldwide (Crone & Omdahl 1987; Mörner & Adams 1989; sible to straightforwardly obtain a magnitude value from M 0 (M w; Hancock et al. 1991; Vittori et al. 1991; Bucknam & Hancock 1992; Aki 1966) that could be compared with other magnitude scales. In Serva & Slemmons 1995; Michetti & Hancock 1997; Pavlides et al. order to calculate seismic moments, four parameters are necessary, 1999; Dunne et al. 2001; Mörner et al. 2004; Caputo et al. 2005; namely the shear modulus (μ), the rupture length (L), the rupture Caputo & Pavlides 2008). The growing importance of geological width (W) and the coseismic displacement (D), according with the data for SHA analyses is nowadays a matter of fact. This paper is formula devoted to analysing, and particularly to comparing, two distinct M = μLWD. earthquake data sets, which are basically obtained from two differ- 0 ent methodological approaches. The first one is based on the critical Although the choice of analysing seismotectonically homoge- analysis of documents and reports (including scientific papers for the neous data strongly affects the final size of the catalogues (i.e. most recent events) provided by observers contemporaneous with number of listed events), we exclusively consider seismic events the earthquake, describing the coseismic surface rupture and giving capable of generating, or modifying, the surface morphology in- quantitative estimates of both maximum displacement and length. stantaneously and permanently as a consequence of the upward

930 C 2008 The Authors Journal compilation C 2008 RAS Magnitude distribution of linear morphogenic earthquakes in the Mediterranean region 931 propagation of a coseismic displacement and its resulting ground & Caputo 2004). In our catalogues, we did not predetermine any rupture that occurred along normal faults, 10–40 km long, com- magnitude boundary, but de facto the above mentioned value rep- monly active since Middle–Late Pleistocene, characterized by mod- resents a low-magnitude cut-off for the type of earthquakes here erate to strong earthquakes (M max ≈ 7), associated with maximum considered. vertical displacements from few tens of centimetres to about 2 m From a seismological point of view, the 5.0–5.5 magnitude also and return periods from several hundreds to some thousands years. represents another very important threshold because the seismic In the following, this kind of events will be referred to as ‘linear energy and the consequent peak ground accelerations generated by morphogenic earthquakes’ (as defined in Caputo 2005), while the earthquakes with magnitudes below this value are generally not activated faults correspond to those defined by Hancock & Barka capable of producing damage to engineered structures. Accordingly, (1987) and Stewart & Hancock (1991) as ‘Aegean-type faults’. In- the range of magnitudes included in our catalogues is particularly deed, this kind of events and fault is responsible for the most damag- of interest for seismic hazard analyses. ing earthquakes within the investigated area (Southern Italy, Balkan Peninsula and Western Anatolia). We did not perform any preselec- tion on the available data considering all the earthquakes fulfilling SEISMIC CATALOGUES Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/174/3/930/605009 by guest on 29 September 2021 the above criteria. For past events occurred before the recent instrumental period, say We did not consider past events that were not associated with the last 10–20 yr, information on the seismotectonic parameters nec- coseismic surface ruptures because they could not provide quanti- essary to calculate the seismic moment could be obtained following tative information about the seismotectonic parameters needed to the two different methodological approaches previously described, calculate the seismic moment. thus providing information for the H- and G-data set. It has been suggested that linear morphogenic earthquakes along Aegean-type faults are characterized by a lower threshold magnitude of 5.0–5.5 (Pavlides & Caputo 2004). The threshold may be H-rupture length and H-displacement interpreted in terms of probability that a surface rupture is produced as a function of magnitude (Pezzopane & Dawson 1996), being neg- The first considered catalogue is essentially an extension of that ligible below this value, or, alternatively, this limit could be referred compiled by Pavlides & Caputo (2004). From that catalogue, we se- to the probability that these surface features can be geologically rec- lected those seismic events where both the ‘surface rupture length’ ognized and measured in the field after dedicated surveys (Pavlides (SRL in Table 1) and the ‘maximum vertical displacement’ (MVD

Table 1. The H-catalogue of past earthquakes.

# Fault Date Earthquake SRL dip SLT W MVD M w(min–max) M w Refs. 1∗ Cittanova 1783.02.05 Calabria 25 60 15–20 20.2 2.50 6.96–7.05 7.01 Bo00 2∗ Helice 1861.12.26 Valimitika 15 45 10–12 15.6 1.00 6.49–6.54 6.52 AJ98, Ko01, PP97,Ri96, Sh67 3 Delphi 1870.08.01 Fokis 20 50 12–13 16.3 1.00 6.60–6.63 6.62 AJ98, AP89 4∗ Atalanti 1894.04.27 Atalanti 30 55 12–16 17.1 1.50 6.82–6.90 6.86 AJ90, Sk94 5 Buyuk Menderes 1899.09.20 Aydin 35 50 13–18 20.2 1.00 6.79–6.88 6.84 AJ98, PP97 6 Krupnik 1904.04.04 Kresna 25 45 15 21.2 2.00 6.96–6.96 6.96 AJ98, DA00, Me02 7∗ S.Benedetto-Gioia dei Marsi 1915.01.13 Avezzano 30 63 10–13 12.9 1.00 6.62–6.70 6.67 Al15, GG00, WV89 & Parasano-Cerchio 8∗ Chirpan 1928.04.14 E Plovdiv 38 70 15 16.0 0.50 6.59–6.59 6.59 AJ98, Ja45, PP97, Ri58, Sh97 9 Popovitsa 1928.04.18 W Plovdiv 50 60 15 17.3 3.00 7.22–7.22 7.22 AJ98, Ja45, PP97, Ri58, Sh97 10 Stratoni 1932.09.26 Ierissos 20 60 8–12 11.5 1.80 6.62–6.74 6.69 AJ98, Fl33, GG53, PT91 11 Domokos 1954.04.30 Sophades 28 50 12–15 17.6 0.90 6.67–6.74 6.71 AJ90, Ca90, Ca95, PM86, PM87 12 Righeo 1957.03.08 Velestino 8 60 10–12 12.7 0.20 5.78–5.84 5.81 AJ90, Ca90, Ca95, Ke96 13 Manyas 1964.10.06 Manyas 40 60 15–20 20.2 0.10 6.17–6.25 6.21 AJ98, Sa92 14 Ala¸sehir 1969.03.28 Ala¸sehir 38 35 10–15 21.8 0.80 6.76–6.87 6.82 Am88, AJ98, EJ85, KA69 15 Muratdaˇg 1970.03.28 Gediz 35 45 10–15 17.7 2.20 6.96–7.08 7.03 AT72, EJ85, PP97, Ta71 16 Burdur 1971.05.12 Burdur 4 50 20–25 29.4 0.30 5.94–6.00 5.97 AJ98, Am88, PP97 17∗ Mygdonia 1978.06.20 Thessaloniki 15 45 8–12 14.1 0.25 6.03–6.14 6.09 Me79, Mo92, Pa80, Pa96, SD00 18 NeaAnchialos 1980.07.09 Volos 8 45 10–12 15.6 0.10 5.64–5.70 5.67 AJ90, Ca90, Ca96, Ke96, Pa83 19∗ Monte Marzano 1980.11.23 Irpinia 38 65 15–18 18.2 1.20 6.86–6.91 6.89 AS93, Va89 20∗ Perachora-Pisia 1981.02.24 Alkyonides 15 45 10–13 16.3 0.80 6.43–6.50 6.47 Ja82, Ki85, Pa82, Pa84 21∗ Kaparelli 1981.03.04 Alkyonides 12 50 10–13 15.0 0.70 6.30–6.38 6.34 Ja82, Ki85 22 Kalamata 1986.09.13 Kalamata 10 60 10 11.5 0.10 5.65–5.65 5.65 Ma89, Pa88, PP97 23∗ Palaeochori-Sarakina 1995.05.13 Kozani-Grevena 27 45 15 21.2 0.20 6.31–6.31 6.31 Ha97, Mo98, Pa95, Ch98 24 Aegion 1995.06.15 Aegion 7 60 10–12 12.7 0.07 5.44–5.49 5.47 KD96 25 Dinar 1995.10.01 Dinar 10 55 20–25 27.5 0.60 6.38–6.45 6.42 EB96, Ko00 26 Cesi-Preci 1997.09.26 Umbria-Marche 1 60 6–7 7.5 0.07 4.73–4.78 4.75 BL00, Bo04, Vi00 27 Colﬁorito North 1997.09.26 Umbria-Marche 5.5 60 8–9 9.8 0.04 5.15–5.18 5.16 BL00, Bo04, Ce98, Vi00 28 Sultandaˇg 2002.02.03 Afyon 21 40 20–25 35.0 0.15 6.27–6.33 6.30 Nu02 Notes: An asterisk (∗) marks the past events also listed in Table 2. fault: name of the seismogenic fault; date: year, month, day; earthquake: locality of epicentre; SRL: surface rupture length (in kilometres); W: fault width (in kilometres) calculated from the dip-angle (dip) of the fault and the seismogenic layer thickness (SLT); MVD: maximum vertical displacement observed along the coseismic rupture (in meters); M w(min. – max.): minimum/maximum moment magnitudes calculated from the seismic moment ( = μ·SRL·W·MVD) using the minimum/maximum values of the parameters; M w: mean moment magnitude; refs: references (the complete list of references is reported in Table 2).

C 2008 The Authors, GJI, 174, 930–940 Journal compilation C 2008 RAS 932 R. Caputo, M. Mucciarelli and S. Pavlides Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/174/3/930/605009 by guest on 29 September 2021

Figure 1. Location map of the investigated Aegean-type faults and associated linear morphogenic earthquakes. Numbers in italics plus bold refer to H-catalogue (Table 1), while numbers underlined to G-catalogue (Table 2). in Table 1) are known (Fig. 1). Following the same methodological acterized by a Mediterranean climate, where the superficial evi- approach described and discussed by the authors, we expanded the dences of an earthquake rapidly disappear, being eroded or masked historical catalogue by adding some linear morphogenic earthquakes by colluvial and alluvial processes as well as anthropogenic ones. for which both parameters could be estimated with confidence. In Notwithstanding this difficulty, but following the principle that mul- so doing, the H-catalogue includes events from Greece, Italy, west- tiple morphogenic earthquakes on the same fault have certainly ern Turkey and Bulgaria (Fig. 1) and consists of 28 listed events produced a recognisable trace, we followed a typical morphotec- (Table 1). tonic approach and measured the length of the faults showing clear geological, structural and morphological evidence of recent, say Holocene–latest Pleistocene, reactivations. In the G-catalogue, this G-rupture length and G-displacement parameter is referred to as the ‘Neotectonic fault length’ (NFL in More than two decades of palaeoseismological investigations car- Table 2). It is likely that the NFL represents the maximum pos- ried out in extensional provinces of the Mediterranean realm enable sible rupture length for the past events observed and measured us to compile a sizeable G-catalogue of past events. As mentioned in the corresponding palaeoseimological trenches. For a subset of above, we did not consider several compressional and transcurrent data, the statistical distribution of the ratio between SRL and NFL events, like those occurred along the North Anatolian Fault, although has been discussed by Pavlides & Caputo (2004) showing that the > they were linear morphogenic earthquakes too. large majority of the events have ruptured 80 per cent of the As concerns the coseismic displacement of past events, the results NFL, though fault segmentation likely plays an important role dur- of palaeoseismological investigations documenting the occurrence ing coseismic propagation of Aegean-type faults. The G-catalogue of linear morphogenic earthquakes have been considered. Accord- includes data from Greece, Italy and Bulgaria (Fig. 1) and con- ingly, we critically analysed all the available literature on the topic sists of 88 listed events (Table 2). Also in this case, if the pa- dealing with Aegean-type faults of the Mediterranean region. We rameter could be not univocally determined, a range of values is also included some unpublished data from trenches that we recently provided. excavated. In the G-catalogue, this parameter is referred to as the ‘palaeoseismological displacement’ (PSD in Table 2). In some case, Other parameters if the parameter could be not univocally determined, a range of values is provided. The degree of uncertainty of this parameter is further Concerning the other two parameters, as a first approximation we commented in Section ‘Discussion’. assumed that the shear modulus (μ) was uniform for all the re- With the exception of extremely recent morphogenic earthquakes, activated faults and equal to 3.2 × 1010 Pa. This value is obviously the length of the associated coseismic surface rupture cannot be eas- the same in the two catalogues and it is consistent with values com- ily measured in the field. This is particularly true in regions char- monly proposed in the literature.

C 2008 The Authors, GJI, 174, 930–940 Journal compilation C 2008 RAS Magnitude distribution of linear morphogenic earthquakes in the Mediterranean region 933

Table 2. The G-catalogue of past earthquakes.

# Fault NFL dip SLT W Historical earthquake PSD M w(min–max) M w Refs. 1∗ Chirpan 43 70 15 16.0 1928.04.14 0.45 6.60–6.60 6.60 Va04, Va06 2 0.35–0.45 6.53–6.60 6.57 3 0.55–0.70 6.66–6.73 6.70 4 0.50–0.70 6.63–6.73 6.68 5∗ Mygdonia 17 45 8–12 14.1 1978.06.20 0.10–0.25 5.80–6.05 6.18 Ch04, Ch05, SD00 6 0.15 5.91–5.97 5.97 7 0.15 5.91–5.97 5.97 8 0.25 6.06–6.18 6.13 9 0.10 5.80–5.91 5.86 10∗ Palaeochori-Sarakina 34 45 15 21.2 1995.05.13 0.10–0.20 6.18–6.38 6.30 Ch98, Ri04 11 0.85 6.80–6.80 6.80 12 0.35 6.54–6.54 6.54 13 Rodia 15 60 10–12 12.7 0.25–0.30 6.03–6.14 6.09 CH05, Ca92 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/174/3/930/605009 by guest on 29 September 2021 14 Tyrnavos 12–20 60 10–12 12.7 0.20–0.30 5.90–6.22 6.10 Ca04, Ca93, UD 15 0.25 5.97–6.17 6.08 16 0.30 6.02–6.22 6.14 17 0.30 6.02–6.22 6.14 18 0.40 6.10–6.30 6.22 19 0.40 6.10–6.30 6.22 20 0.30–0.40 6.02–6.30 6.19 21 0.30–0.40 6.02–6.30 6.19 22 0.20–0.40 5.90–6.30 6.17 23 0.20–0.40 5.90–6.30 6.17 24 0.45 6.14–6.34 6.25 25 0.45 6.14–6.34 6.25 26 0.45 6.14–6.34 6.25 27 Souli-Petoussi 20 70 15–18 17.6 0.40 6.34–6.40 6.37 Bo97, UD 28 0.50–0.60 6.41–6.51 6.47 29∗ Atalanti 35 55 12–16 17.1 1894.04.27 0.20–0.90 6.28–6.80 6.64 Pt04 30 0.20–1.65 6.28–6.97 6.80 31 0.20–0.80 6.28–6.77 6.61 32∗ Kaparelli 22–23 50 10–13 15.0 1981.03.04 0.50–0.70 6.38–6.56 6.49 Ch05, Ki85, Pe86, UD 33∗ Perachora-Pisia 33 40 10–12 17.1 1981.02.24 0.50–0.70 6.55–6.70 6.63 Co98, Ki85, Pa84 34 0.50 6.55–6.60 6.57 35 1.20 6.80–6.85 6.83 36∗ Helice 26 45 10–11 14.8 1861.12.26 0.90 6.62–6.65 6.63 Ko01, Pa04, Ri96 37 1.40 6.75–6.78 6.76 38 0.45 6.42–6.45 6.43 39 Aegion 12–14 45 10–12 15.6 0.40–1.00 6.16–6.52 6.40 Pt05, Ri96 40 0.60–1.00 6.28–6.52 6.43 41 0.40–1.00 6.16–6.52 6.40 42 Sparta 20–22 45 12–15 19.1 464 B.C. (?) 1.80 6.80–6.89 6.85 Pa02, Pa05, UD 43 Monte Vettore 18–20 60 12–15 15.6 0.45–0.70 6.31–6.53 6.44 Bo04, Ca98, GG03 44 Monti della Laga 20–30 60 12–15 15.6 0.90–1.00 6.54–6.75 6.66 Bo04, GG03 45 Campo Imperatore 20–30 65 13–15 15.4 0.70–1.00 6.48–6.74 6.64 Bo04, GF95, Ga02, GG00 46 0.90–1.10 6.55–6.76 6.68 47 1.10 6.61–6.76 6.70 48 Ovindoli-Pezza 15–20 50 10–13 15.0 2.00–3.40 6.67–6.98 6.87 Bo04, Pt96 49 1.20–2.50 6.52–6.89 6.76 50 2.00 6.67–6.83 6.76 51 Parasano-Cerchio 17 65 11–13 13.2 0.40–0.55 6.22–6.36 6.30 Bo04, Ga95 52 0.30–1.45 6.13–6.64 6.49 53 0.25–0.50 6.08–6.33 6.23 54∗ San Benedetto-Gioia dei Marsi 35–40 63 11–13 13.5 1915.01.13 (?) 0.70–0.90 6.38–6.55 6.48 Bo04, Mi96, 55 0.50–0.80 6.29–6.52 6.43 56 1.40–1.50 6.59–6.70 6.65 57 0.30–0.90 6.14–6.55 6.41 Ga95, Ga97 58 0.20–0.40 6.02–6.32 6.21 59 0.50–0.80 6.29–6.52 6.43 60 0.50–1.50 6.29–6.70 6.56 61 0.50–0.70 6.29–6.48 6.40 62 0.40.0.80 6.22–6.52 6.41 63 Trasacco 10–12 55 11–13 14.6 0.15–0.70 5.81–6.36 6.20 GG96, Ga97 64 0.25–1.00 5.96–6.46 6.31

C 2008 The Authors, GJI, 174, 930–940 Journal compilation C 2008 RAS 934 R. Caputo, M. Mucciarelli and S. Pavlides

Table 2. (Continued.)

# Fault NFL dip SLT W Historical earthquake PSD M w(min–max) M w Refs. 65 0.10–1.00 5.69–6.46 6.28 66 0.05–1.00 5.49–6.46 6.27 67 0.05–1.00 5.49–6.46 6.27 68 0.05–0.15 5.49–5.91 5.77 69 0.05–0.15 5.49–5.91 5.77 70 Aremogna-Cinque Miglia 16 60 13–15 16.2 0.30–1.00 6.18–6.57 6.43 Bo04, DA01, FG89 71 0.30–1.00 6.18–6.57 6.43 72 0.50–1.00 6.33–6.57 6.47 73 North Matese 28–29 60 13–15 16.2 1805.07.02 (?) 0.45–0.50 6.46–6.55 6.50 GG04, Mi99 74 0.70–0.75 6.59–6.66 6.62 75∗ Monte Marzano 38–40 65 15–18 18.2 1980.11.23 0.42–0.58 6.55–6.72 6.65 AS93, Pt93, Pt94, PV90 76 0.47–0.83 6.59–6.82 6.73 77 0.47–0.66 6.59–6.75 6.68 Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/174/3/930/605009 by guest on 29 September 2021 78 0.73–0.81 6.71–6.81 6.77 79 0.42–0.66 6.55–6.75 6.67 80 0.64–0.98 6.68–6.87 6.79 81 Pollino 15–22 65 15–20 19.3 0.50–0.90 6.34–6.70 6.57 Mi97 82 0.30–0.50 6.19–6.53 6.41 83 Castrovillari 8–10 60 15–20 20.2 1.20–1.60 6.42–6.65 6.56 Ci97, Ci02 84 0.80 6.30–6.45 6.39 85 0.90 6.34–6.49 6.42 86 Caggiano 17 60 15–16 17.9 1561 (?) 0.40–0.50 6.32–6.40 6.37 Ga06 87 0.70 6.48–6.50 6.49 Notes: An asterisk (∗) marks the past events also listed in Table 1. fault: name of the seismogenic fault; NFL: Neotectonic fault length (in kilometres); W: fault width (in kilometres) calculated from the dip-angle (dip) of the fault and the seismogenic layer thickness (SLT); PSD: palaeoseismologically measured displacement associated with past morphogenic earthquakes (in meters); M w(min.–max.): minimum/maximum moment magnitudes calculated from the seismic moment ( = μ·NFL·W·PSD) using the minimum/maximum values of the parameters; M w: mean moment magnitude; Refs: references [AJ90: Ambraseys and Jackson (1990); AJ98: Ambraseys and Jackson (1998); Al15: Alfani (1915); Am88: Ambraseys (1988); AP89: Ambraseys and Pantelopoulos (1989); AS93: Amato and Selvaggi (1993); AT72: Ambraseys and Tchalenko (1972); BL00: Boncio and Lavecchia (2000); Bo00: Boschi et al. (2000); Bo04: Boncio et al. (2004); Bo97: Boccaletti et al. (1997); Ca04: Caputo et al. (2004); Ca90: Caputo (1990); Ca92: Caputo (1993a); Ca93: Caputo (1993b); Ca95: Caputo (1995); Ca96: Caputo (1996); Ca98: Calamita et al. (1998); Ce98: Cello et al. (1998); Ch04: Chatzipetros et al. (2004); Ch05: Chatzipetros et al. (2005); CH95: Caputo and Helly (2005); Ch98: Chatzipetros et al. (1998); Ci97: Cinti et al. (1997); Ci02: Cinti et al. (2002); Co98: Collier et al. (1998); DA00: Dobrev and Avramova-Tacheva (2000); DA01: D’Addezio et al. (2001); EB96: Eyido˘gan and Barka (1996); EJ85: Eyido˘gan and Jackson (1985); FG89: Frezzotti and Giraudi (1989); Fl33: Floras (1933); Ga02: Galli et al. (2002); Ga06: Galli et al. (2006); Ga95: Galadini et al. (1995); Ga97: Galadini et al. (1997); GB02: Galli and Bosi (2002); GF95: Giraudi and Frezzotti (1995); GG00: Galadini and Galli (2000); GG03: Galadini and Galli (2003); GG04: Galli and Galadini (2003); GG53: Georgalas and Galanopoulos (1953); GG96: Galadini and Galli (1996); Ha97: Hatzfeld et al. (1997); Ja45: Jankof (1945); Ja82: Jackson et al. (1982); KA69: Ketin and Abd¨usselamoglu (1969); KD96: Koukouvelas and Doutsos (1996); Ke96: Kementzetzidou (1996); Ki85: King et al. (1985); Ko00: Koral (2000); Ko01: Koukouvelas et al. (2001); Ma89: Mariolakos et al. (1989); Me02: Meyer et al. (2002); Me79: Mercier et al. (1979); Mi96: Michetti et al. (1996); Mi97: Michetti et al. (1997); Mi99: Milano et al. (1999); Mo92: Mountrakis et al. (1992); Mo98: Mountrakis et al. (1998); Nu02: Nurlu et al. (2002); Pa02: Papanastassiou et al. (2002); Pa04: Pavlides et al. (2004); Pa05: Papanastassiou et al. (2005): Pa80: Papazachos et al. (1980); Pa82: Papazachos et al. (1982); Pa83: Papazachos et al. (1983); Pa84: Papazachos et al. (1984); Pa88: Papazachos et al. (1988); Pa95: Pavlides et al. (1995); Pa96: Pavlides (1996); Pe96: Perissoratis et al. (1986); Pi98: Pinar (1998); PM86: Papastamatiou and Mouyaris (1986a); PM87: Papastamatiou and Mouyaris (1986b); PP97: Papazachos and Papazachou (1997); Pt04: Pantosti et al. (2004a); Pt05: Pantosti et al. (2004b); PT91: Pavlides and Tranos (1991); Pt93: Pantosti et al. (1993); Pt96: Pantosti et al. (1996); PV90: Pantosti and Valensise (1990); Ri58: Richter (1958); Ri96: Rigo et al. (1996); Sa92: S¸aro˘glu et al. (1992); SD00: Stiros and Drakos (2000); Sh67: Schmidt (1867); Sh97 : Shanov (1997); Sk94: Skufos (1894); Ta71: Ta¸sdemiro˘glou (1971); UD: unpublished data; Va04: Vanneste et al. (2004); Va06: Vanneste et al. (2006); Va89: Valensise et al. (1989); Vi00: Vittori et al. (2000); WV89: Ward and Valensise (1989)].

The rupture width is a more subtle problem and certainly needs layer thickness’ (SLT in Tables 1 and 2), while in other cases, this a more careful approach. It is worth mentioning that most of the information is obtained from regional or local microseismic inves- considered palaeoseimological investigations included in the G- tigations, inversion of geodetic data and numerical modelling. Only catalogue have been carried out on faults that have been reactivated in few cases, this was roughly estimated from the value of the crustal by recent and historical events. Indeed, researchers have commonly thickness. From the SLT,it is thus possible to calculate the maximum excavated palaeoseismological trenches across fault traces where rupture width (W in Tables 1 and 2) by considering the dip-angle (dip coseismic surface ruptures have been historically reported. This ap- in Tables 1 and 2) of the seismogenic faults, which in turn is obtained parent bias in the data set has the advantage that many of the faults from independent seismological, seismic, geological, geodetic and considered in the present research are included in both catalogues structural data. and thus information on the rupture width could be shared between Although the assumption of a constant value for the shear mod- the two lists. Additionally, many events included in the H-catalogue ulus common to the two data sets and the application of a common occurred in recent times and, therefore, they have been also instru- method to estimate the width of the seismogenic faults could possi- mentally recorded. In this case, the hypocentral depth and/or the bly affect the real estimate of the moment magnitudes, this approach distribution of the aftershocks commonly provide the ‘seismogenic does not introduce any systematic bias between the two catalogues.

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Figure 2. Cumulative distribution of the moment magnitude as obtained Figure 3. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) of the two from the two independent data sets. Continuous (blue) and dashed (red) catalogues. Continuous (blue) and dashed (red) lines represent the H- and lines represent the H- and G-data sets, respectively. G-data sets, respectively.

Since the moment magnitude depends on both displacement and MAGNITUDE DISTRIBUTION fault area (and thus fault length), we tested separately the influence OF REAL DATA of the two factors. The K–S test performed on the displacements sug- The distribution of the estimated moment magnitudes for the two gests to reject the hypothesis of equal distribution at 95 per cent CL, catalogues is represented in Fig. 2. As above mentioned, due to the while the difference between H-length and G-length is significant uncertainty of some of the parameters, for many events a range at just 75 per cent CL The larger difference between displacements of values has been assumed. Accordingly, for both data sets three rather than lengths is also evident from the comparison of EDCFs curves have been obtained by using the minimum, the mean and (Figs 4a and b). the maximum values for each of the estimated seismic moment and Finally, in order to understand if we are observing a real difference the corresponding moment magnitude. The curves based on the or we are simply looking at a bias due to undersampling of one minimum and maximum magnitudes are represented as thin lines population, it would be necessary to have an equal number of events in Fig. 2, while those based on the mean magnitude are represented in both catalogues. Based on the empirical frequency distribution as thick lines. of the collected PSD, MVD, NFL and SRL, we generated random As expected, the curves look similar to a truncated Gutenberg– sequences of events reproducing the observed distributions of both Richter distribution with clear evidence of incompleteness of the catalogues. The synthetic curves reproduce the behaviour of the real catalogues. This incompleteness can be explained, as discussed be- data confirming that the observed differences between H-data and fore, with the diminishing probability of the surface rupture for de- G-data are not due to undersampling of the population, but rather to creasing magnitudes (Pavlides & Caputo 2004). However, it appears an actual difference in the distribution of the parameters obtained that the completeness threshold, the curve slope and the truncation with the historical versus geological collecting approach. magnitude are different for the two data sets. We performed a statistical test to discuss the hypothesis that the DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS H-magnitudes are coming from a different population versus the null hypothesis of being the same population of the G-magnitudes. The potential period of occurrence for the G-data spans the last In order to avoid a possible bias due to the unknown parent distri- 10–20 ka, while that of the H-data is ca. 200 yr. From a theoretical bution, we used a robust, non-parametric test. The Kolmogorov– point of view, being equal the other parameters, the longer the inves- Smirnov (K–S) test was applied to the two empirical cumulative tigated period, the more complete the sampled catalogue should be, distribution functions (ECDFs, Fig. 3), obtaining the confidence especially in terms of maximum (and more rare) events. In spite of limit under which one can reject the hypothesis that the two dis- the much shorter investigated period, the H-events show statistically tributions are the same. The test performed on the whole data significant larger maximum magnitudes than the G-earthquakes. It set returns a 99.99 per cent confidence limit (CL). Following is likely that this difference is epistemic, being intrinsically related a conservative approach, it could be possible that this strong to the distinct methodological approaches used for the different data result is due to the incompleteness at lower magnitudes and, there- sets and particularly for quantifying the coseismic displacement and fore, we performed a second test in the completeness interval. It is length. reasonable to assume that incompleteness arises when the slope For displacement, it is expected that MVD (H-data) is systemati- falls below a straight line for decreasing magnitudes. We thus cally larger than the corresponding PSD (G-data) value. This is due took M w = 6.1 as the completeness threshold, obtaining again a to the fact that in the historical approach, the entire rupture length 99.99 per cent confidence limit for rejecting the equal distribution (or most of it) is inspected by researchers or was observed and de- hypothesis. scribed in older reports, while in palaeoseismological trenches, the

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Figure 4. Empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) of coseismic displacements (a) and rupture lengths (b) included in the two catalogues. Continuous (blue) and dashed (red) lines represent the H- and G-data, respectively. Figure 5. Present-day examples of linear seismogenetic features associated with a non-planar geometry of the coseismic rupture in its uppermost metres. observation is limited to only one or few excavation sites. From a An observer would likely focus on (and consequently report) the maximum statistical point of view, it is obvious that the larger sampling size on displacement, which in turn does not correspond to the real amount of co- which MVD is based makes its value (H-data) theoretically more re- seismic displacement. Such morphological features are relatively common alistic. This is conﬁrmed by the MVD and PSD values for ten events in nature and could have caused important overestimates of the MVD value, included in both tables (marked by an asterisk). The K–S test, per- especially for older events whose record is provided by non-specialists com- formed under the one-tailed assumption of single sided-inequality, pletely unaware of these structural complexities. returns a 94 per cent CL for rejecting the hypotesis PSD > MVD versus the alternative MVD > PSD. However, it should be noted that the gravitationally induced com- Moreover, because such gravitational phenomena are triggered by ponent of the vertical displacement inducing, for example, landslid- the ground shaking, which is a function of the magnitude, the prob- ing or differential compaction could not be straightforwardly rec- ability that these secondary effects may occur along the surface ognized and separated in the ﬁeld. Although in the H-catalogue a rupture strongly increases with the size of the earthquake. particular care was spent in neglecting questionable data (see discus- Also an articulated geometry of the coseismic rupture close to sion in Pavlides & Caputo 2004), if secondary gravitational effects the surface could easily create the conditions for an overestimate of occur in concomitance with the maximum (tectonically induced) the displacement. In Fig. 5, are represented two examples from re- displacement, the recorded MVD value could be erroneously larger. cent linear morphogenic events. In similar situations, the amount of

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Figure 6. (a) Example of palaeoseismological trench (modiﬁed from Caputo & Helly 2005) showing a complex coseismic rupture geometry. (b) The palinspastic restoration immediately after the linear morphogenic event allows to recognize the occurrence of local effects (viz. small graben structure) and thus to measure the real coseismic displacement.

displacement that would have been ‘historically’ reported, especially ingly, the G-length (NFL) is systematically longer than the H-length in the older texts commonly provided by non-specialists, likely cor- (SRL). Other parameters being equal, when a fault is reactivated by responds to the maximum observed value (70 and 40 cm in Figs 5a a relatively small seismic event this difference is emphasized as a and b, respectively), but this would be not indicative of the real consequence of the increase of the NFL/SRL ratio. amount of coseismic displacement (30 and 15 cm in Figs 5a and In summary, in the calculation of the seismic moment for the b, respectively). Conversely, based on modern palaeoseismolog- two data sets, the contribution given by the coseismic displacement ical investigations (Fig. 6a) and careful palinspastic restorations and the length show opposing trends and the bias introduced in the (Fig. 6b) a similar structural and geometrical disturbance would two independent approaches is partly counterbalanced. However, be easily recognized and properly taken into account in order to at magnitudes lower than 6.5, the NFL versus SRL contribution provide a more realistic value of the coseismic displacement. Ac- prevails, giving a larger number of moderate (M w = 5.0–6.5) G- cordingly, it is likely that some (or many?) MVD values included in inferred events. In contrast, for strong earthquakes (M w > 6.5) the the H-catalogue overestimate the real coseismic displacement. bias possibly introduced in the H-events by the ‘gravitational’ and For the length of the seismogenic fault used in the calculation other local effects seems to prevail, giving unlikely high magni- of the seismic moment and following the above deﬁnitions of the tudes for normal faults worldwide and particularly for Aegean-type two parameters (NFL and SRL), it is likely that the length of any faults. The comparison of moment magnitudes calculated for 10 surface rupture produced by a historical event (SRL) is included linear morphogenic events included in both catalogues conﬁrm this within the NFL, the latter being the result of the cumulative effect of pattern showing that H-magnitudes are systematically larger than many partly overlapping linear morphogenic earthquakes. Accord- G-magnitudes above ca. 6.5 (Fig. 7).

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mogenic sources for Seismic Hazard Assessment applications: the case Downloaded from https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/174/3/930/605009 by guest on 29 September 2021 of central Apennines (Italy), J. Seismol., 8, 407–425. Boschi, E., Guidoboni, E., Ferrari, G., Mariotti, D., Valensise, G. & Gasperini, P. (eds), 2000. Catalogue of strong Italian earthquakes from 461 B.C. to 1997, Ann. Geofisica, 43(4), 609–868. Bucknam, R.C. & Hancock, P.L.(eds), 1992. Major active faults of the world. Results of IGCP Project 206, Ann. Tectonicae, Suppl. VI, 3–284. Calamita, F., Caputo, R., Pizzi, A. & Scisciani, V., 1998. Caratterizzazione cinematica ed evoluzione deformativa delle faglie quaternarie con attività Figure 7. Comparison of the M calculated for 10 linear morphogenic w olocenica: esempi dall’ Appennino centrale, Il Quaternario., 10(2), 615– events included in both H-catalogue and G-catalogue (Tables 1 and 2, 620. respectively). Caputo, R., 1990. 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