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Norway's 2020 Population Projections

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Astri Syse, Michael Thomas and Rebecca Gleditsch RAPPORTER / REPORTS 2020 / 25 National level results, methods and assumptions projections Norway’s 2020 population Norway’s Statistisk sentralbyrå 2020/25 Norway’s 2020 population projections Reports 2020/25 Astri Syse, Michael Thomas and Rebecca Gleditsch Norway’s 2020 population projections National level results, methods and assumptions Statistisk sentralbyrå • Statistics Norway Oslo–Kongsvinger In the series Reports, analyses and annotated statistical results are published from various surveys. Surveys include sample surveys, censuses and register-based surveys. © Statistics Norway When using material from this publication, Statistics Norway shall be quoted as the source. Published 3 June 2020 Print: Statistics Norway ISBN 978-82-587-1148-0 (printed) ISBN 978-82-587-1149-7 (electronic) ISSN 0806-2056 Symbols in tables Symbol Category not applicable . Data not available .. Data not yet available … Not for publication : Nil - Less than 0.5 of unit employed 0 Less than 0.05 of unit employed 0.0 Provisional or preliminary figure * Break in the homogeneity of a vertical series — Break in the homogeneity of a horizontal series | Decimal punctuation mark . Reports 2020/25 Norway’s 2020 national population projections Preface This report presents results from the 2020 national population projections, along with a detailed account of the underlying assumptions. It also describes how Statistics Norway produces the Norwegian national population projections, using the BEFINN model. The national population projections are published biennially. More information about the population projections is available at https://www.ssb.no/en/folkfram. Statistics Norway, 19 May 2020 Linda Nøstbakken Statistics Norway 3 Norway’s 2020 national population projections Reports 2020/25 Abstract The 2020 national population projections show lower population growth and stronger ageing than in the previous projection produced in 2018. Nevertheless, the main alternative suggests that Norway will experience population growth throughout this century, from around 5.4 million today to 6.1 million in 2060, and around 6.3 million in 2100. This is mainly due to positive net migration. We expect more births than deaths until 2050, after which the situation reverses. We also expect more elderly people in the population, with the population aged 65 years or above doubling by 2075 (from today’s 940 000) and reaching almost 2 million by 2100. The number of the very old, persons aged 90 or over, will also increase, from 45 000 to 210 000 by 2060, which corresponds to an almost fivefold increase. Within 10 years, and for the first time, there will be more elderly (65+ years) than children and teenagers (0-19 years), with the trend towards an ever-older population set to continue throughout the century. Our main assumption (low and high in parentheses) is that the total fertility rate will remain stable at the current level (1.5) until 2025, before rising again and stabilising at around 1.7 (1.3-1.9). Life expectancy at birth is also expected to rise, from around 81.2 years for men and 84.7 years for women today, to 89 (86-91) and 91 (88-93) years in 2060, and 93 (90-97) and 95 (91-98) years in 2100. Immigration is expected to decline somewhat: In 2019, there were just over 50 000 immigrations to Norway. Due to travel restrictions and other circumstances related to the COVID-19 pandemic, we expect particularly low immigration in 2020 and 2021. From 2022 onwards, we project that annual immigration will decline from around 45 000 (39 000-52 000) to around 37 000 (18 000-84 000) in 2100. The projected emigrations depend partly on the immigrations. In the main alternative, annual net migration remains stable at around 10 000-12 000 up to 2100. The report also documents how the national population projections are produced, using the BEFINN model. The population is projected by age and sex to the year 2100. Immigrants from three country groups, Norwegian-born children with two immigrant parents and the rest of the population are projected as separate groups. We use the cohort-component method, with two types of input: • Updated figures for the population by sex and one-year age groups • Assumptions about future developments in the demographic components (fertility, life expectancy and international migration) The results of a population projection largely depend on the assumptions used for the three demographic components. We therefore apply different assumptions for future developments in fertility, life expectancy, and immigration: Medium (M); high (H); low (L); constant (C); zero net migration (E); and no migration (0). Taken together, Statistics Norway projects the population in 15 combinations of these assumptions. Each projection alternative is described using three letters in the following order: Fertility, life expectancy, and immigration. The term ‘main alternative' is used to refer to the MMM alternative, which indicates that the medium level assumption has been used for all three components. We also produce a stochastic projection, with probability intervals around the deterministic medium assumptions, to provide users with a formal assessment of the uncertainty. Population projections are inherently uncertain. The uncertainty usually increases the further into the future we look. However, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, it has been especially challenging to formulate assumptions this year – even for the short term. Users must bear this in mind when they employ the different alternatives of the 2020 national population projections in their work. 4 Statistics Norway Reports 2020/25 Norway’s 2020 national population projections Sammendrag Resultatene fra de nasjonale befolkningsframskrivingene 2020 gir en lavere befolkningsvekst enn tidligere år, kombinert med en sterkere aldring. Likevel er det fortsatt befolkningsvekst i Norge gjennom hele århundret i vårt hovedalternativ, fra dagens rundt 5,4 millioner innbyggere til 6,1 millioner i 2060 og 6,3 millioner i 2100. Dette skyldes hovedsakelig positiv nettoinnvandring. Det vil fødes flere enn det dør fram mot 2050 før det snur og det vil dø flere enn det fødes. Likevel blir det stadig flere eldre og antallet som er 65 år eller eldre vil mer enn dobles fra dagens 940 000 fram mot 2075 og nå nær 2 millioner i 2100. Antallet 80 år og eldre vil mer enn tredobles innen 2060 (fra 230 000 til 720 000), mens antallet i 90- og 100- årene vil øke dramatisk og nær femdobles (fra 45 000 til 210 000) før 2060. Innen bare 10 år blir det for første gang flere eldre (65+ år) enn barn og unge (0-19 år) i Norge dersom hovedalternativet slår til, og i 2060 vil det være mer enn 500 000 flere eldre over 65 år enn barn og unge. I våre hovedforutsetninger (lav- og høy- alternativer i parentes) antar vi at fruktbarheten vil ligge stabilt på dagens nivå (1,5) fram til 2025, før den igjen stiger og stabiliserer seg på rundt 1,7 (1,3-1,9). Levealderen forutsettes også å stige, fra dagens 81,2 år for menn og 84,7 år for kvinner, til henholdsvis 89 (86-91) og 91 (88-93) år i 2060, og 93 (90-97) og 95 (91-98) år i 2100. Innvandringen forutsettes å gå noe ned: I 2019 var det i overkant av 50 000 innvandringer til Norge. På grunn av reiserestriksjoner og andre forhold knyttet til COVID-19 pandemien forventer vi spesielt lav innvandring i 2020 og 2021. Etter dette forutsetter vi at den årlige innvandringen vil gå ned fra 45 000 (39 000-52 000) i 2022 til rundt 37 000 (18 000-84 000) i 2100. Det framskrevne antallet utvand- ringer avhenger dels av antallet innvandringer, og i hovedalternativet vil den årlige nettoinnvandringen ligge stabilt på rundt 10 000-12 000 fram mot 2100. Rapporten dokumenterer hvordan befolkningsframskrivingene utarbeides, ved bruk av modellen BEFINN. Modellen framskriver folketallet etter alder og kjønn på nasjonalt nivå til og med år 2100. Innvandrere fra tre landgrupper, norskfødte med to innvandrerforeldre og den øvrige befolkningen framskrives som egne grupper. Vi bruker kohort-komponentmetoden med to typer input: • Oppdaterte tall for befolkningen etter kjønn og ettårig alder • Forutsetninger om framtidig utvikling i de demografiske komponentene fruktbarhet, levealder, inn- og utvandring. Resultatene av en befolkningsframskriving avhenger i stor grad av hvilke forutsetninger som gjøres. Forutsetningene om framtidig fruktbarhet, levealder og innvandring lages derfor i ulike alternativer: Medium eller mellom (M); høy (H); lav (L); konstant (C); null nettoinnvandring (E); og null inn- og utvandring (0). Til sammen framskriver Statistisk sentralbyrå befolkningen i 15 kombinasjoner av disse M-, L-, H-, C-, E- og 0-alternativene. Et beregningsalternativ beskrives ved tre bokstaver i denne rekkefølgen: fruktbarhet, levealder og innvandring. Betegn- elsen ‘hovedalternativ’ brukes om MMM-alternativet, som angir at mellomnivået er brukt for alle komponentene. Nytt i år er at vi også har laget en stokastisk framskriving, som gir en mer formalisert beskrivelse av usikkerheten. Befolkningsframskrivinger er i utgangspunktet usikre, og vanligvis øker usikker- heten jo lenger inn i framtiden vi ser. På grunn av COVID-19-pandemien har det imidlertid vært ekstremt utfordrende å lage forutsetninger i år – også i nær framtid. Brukere må huske på dette når de bruker de ulike alternativene fra 2020-framskriv- ingene i arbeidet sitt, både på kort og lang sikt. Statistics Norway 5 Norway’s 2020 national population projections Reports 2020/25 Contents Preface .................................................................................................................................
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