Strategic Foresight Primer Angela Wilkinson
November 2017 Foreword by Ricardo Borges de Castro Adviser on Strategic Foresight to the European Political Strategy Centre
The idea for this Strategic Foresight Primer was born out of necessity. The European Political Strategy Centre has a mandate to engage in anticipatory governance and identify potential future challenges and opportunities for the European Union. Yet, we soon realised that there was no readily accessible and 'easy- to-use' guide on strategic foresight — a ‘foresight for dummies’ — explaining the nuts and bolts of the process. What is strategic foresight and what is it not? When and how to use it? What are the advantages and limitations of the different methodologies?
Angela Wilkinson was most definitely the right person to help answer these questions. Angela has an international career spanning more than 30 years in strategy, forward assessment and public policy. Her work in the private, public and non-for- profit sectors has helped policy- and decision-makers, business leaders, civil society organisations, and individuals to be more prepared for the future and to shape better decisions.
This Primer is a substitute neither to the existing (and emerging) literature in the field of strategic foresight nor to the relevant work being done by so many practitioners around the globe. Also, it does not replace the foresight interventions and the conversations that Angela so eloquently explains in the next pages.
This brief guide can be used as a first port of call for those navigating today’s ‘TUNA’ conditions – Turbulence, unpredictable Uncertainty, Novelty and Ambiguity. It is also a contribution to make strategic foresight more accessible to a larger community of policy-makers and to make anticipation a new literacy so that everyone – from public institutions to citizens – can be better prepared for the future.
As the European Union finds fresh wind to sail after almost a decade of ‘polycrisis’, this Primer can help us to continue fulfilling the 'shared vision' and the 'common goals' of the European project with an eye on the horizon. 2 We are living in an era of faster and fundamental changes, with uneven impacts on geographies and generations. The pace of social change and technology innovation is accelerating and outpacing governance systems: capitalism 5.0, a fourth Industrial revolution – and diplomacy 2.0 and Bretton Woods 1.0!
How can institutional innovation keep pace with technological advances and enable whole societies to flourish in an era of inevitable surprise and increasing social complexity?
Rather than relying on experts to forecast the numbers and predict what will happen next, the interaction of inertia and innovation creates the perfect cocktail for using an approach called strategic foresight.
DIDN’T ANYONE SEE IT These situations also show that, while COMING?1 data-rich, model-based forecasting, is the foundation of evidence-based Ten years ago, the world had yet to policy, it cannot be relied on for decision- experience the 2008 Great Financial making in situations characterised Crisis. Yet, even before disaster struck, by ‘TUNA’ conditions – Turbulence, an increasing number of people were unpredictable Uncertainty, Novelty and aware of the unprecedented rate of Ambiguity2. default of mortgage repayments in parts of the USA. Similarly, in the following Yet societies across the world are facing years, anyone who would have predicted a growing list of globally connected that there would be a migration crisis in ‘TUNA’ challenges. Many are optimistic Europe, or the possibility of a return to about the prospect of a so-called nuclear war, would have been ignored. ‘fourth industrial revolution’ – and The implications of these potential crises hope for a new era of digital and other were so uncomfortable and unfamiliar abundances. Others are also anxious that they were overlooked until it was about cyber security and the potential too late. misuse of the new power of humans to re-engineer the building blocks of life. Our world is increasingly global
1 and ultra-local. Climate change is the A shift in stance – from knowing poster child of the Anthropocene: The to learning cumulative activity of all humans over centuries is now having a detectable We can either slow down the pace of and faster impact than geological change or speed up our ability to learn processes on the Earth’s natural life our way into the future together, by support systems (air, weather, oceans, using more than one, but not too many, water, land, biodiversity). There is an plausible alternative stories of the increase in social complexity which future. We can use strategic foresight reflects an unevenness of experiences to exercise good judgement about across geographies and generations the future and to start an empathy of globalisation. The rise of social revolution. media has enabled individuals to tailor feedback about fast shifting realities (personalised 'news') to fit their beliefs and preferences. "We can either slow down the pace of change or speed up our Human beings have always grappled ability to learn our way into with the fundamental tension between the future" our inability to know and control, and our capacity to anticipate, imagine and create the future. This tension is key to the evolutionary success of our entire species and to better policies!
2 THE BASICS the purpose in hand. It is also important to avoid the psychological trap of telling all The future is always a story – good vs. all bad stories about the future and there is always more than – no one learns anything in Heaven and one story nobody wants to visit Hell! Furthermore, rather than telling stories of the future as An important place to start in developing victims or winners, it is more effective to and using strategic foresight to learn add a third perspective and tell the story our way into the future is to accept from the stance of the learner. the assumptions that: (1) a story and new stories of the future are always Deeper and shared insights are developed emerging, and not only for children; and, by iterating between different ways (2) there are no facts about the future. of knowing the future – drawing on creative, critical and analytical thinking "there are no Facts, by definition, are ‘of and developing narratives (a story map facts about the past’. The future has not of events linked in time) and a state the future" yet happened and cannot description – i.e. a time-independent, be empirically observed or system map, or causal loop diagram, measured. But it can be experienced that enables the discovery of feedback through imaginative storytelling, loops. The clarity of the 'whole system' immersive learning and using collaborative logic enables framing and reframing approaches to group model building and assumptions to be made explicit, testable whole systems thinking. and contestable. Reframing, in turn, opens up a space for new ideas – enabling new What is strategic foresight? solution spaces to be discovered, and Strategic foresight offers a way of more and different policy options to be making use of our inherent storytelling designed, tested and considered (re- abilities in order to engage tactic perception of agency). Futures learning is knowledge, make assumptions explicit, enabled by completing several cycles of forge new shared understanding (i.e. the reframing-re-perception loop. meaning making), and anticipate and prepare for what has yet to happen. Prospective leadership judgement pivots on the quality of the strategic conversation In a strategic foresight process, a which opens up a safe space for manageable and memorable number disagreement, and provides a platform for of plausible stories of the future are immersive learning and learning by doing. developed and contrasted. There is always The aim is to reveal and respect different more than one. But four or more stories perspectives and forge the new common can be overwhelming. The rule of thumb ground required to catalyse and sustain is to build the least number needed for new collaborations.
3 Box 1: Discussion vs conversation Discussion – to examine, to Conversation – to turn, to bend, investigate, to dash to pieces, to the act of living 'with' agitate When people are engaged in a When people discuss a report they do strategic conversation they actively not talk with each other but at one listen to each other, build on each another trying to reach consensus on other's ideas and develop a new who is right and what is wrong. meaning and shared understanding.
An infographic is not a substitute What strategic foresight is not? for a good quality conversation. The Not a report - a carefully designed and discussion about a report does not have purposeful intervention the same impact on our perception and Strategic foresight is a learning process learning as a conversation in which that offers a decision-maker new and we talk with each another and turn refreshing perspectives on the present ideas over together to create shared situation – which is often puzzling, understanding and new common ground. socially messy and uncertain. It engages with uncertainty as a friend rather than "Prospective leadership judgement as a foe. pivots on the quality of the strategic conversation " It is not a report but a means to some other end. The carefully designed and purposeful intervention focusses the By developing, analysing, contrasting social learning process on the needs of a and using plausible, alternative stories specific set of users and their needs (i.e. of the future through a process of their uses foresight). strategic conversation, it is possible to reveal, test and challenge deeply held There is no single, right or best method: assumptions about the future. Strategic each approach has its strengths and foresight enables leaders to ask better limitations. Good practice involves questions about the future, make purposeful design, a careful choice of strategic choices explicit and support the methods, iterating between different discovery, design and consideration of steps in the conventional policy process more and better options for action. (or ‘cycle’) and developing a culture of use i.e. designing with the ‘so what’ in mind, rather than relying on disseminating a report.
4 There is a diversity of strategic foresight • Window cleaner – helping people to methodologies - including megatrends think ‘outside the box’ and see beyond analysis, scenario planning, and the usual policy timeframe in decision normative approaches – design futures making. and visioning and back-casting. There is • Map maker – enabling the bigger also diversity within each method – for picture to be seen and forging shared example, the choice between expert- understanding and new meaning. led Delphi surveys, open search or multi-lingual meta-scanning in horizon • Psychoanalyst – as uncertainty scanning, and, the many different creates anxiety in the expert, methods for building plausibility-based, promoting positive thinking, exploratory scenarios e.g. inductive, cultivating empathy, reflecting deeply deductive, abductive, normative, on the role of the self in perceiving incremental, alternative, critical and reality, and making change happen. perspectives-based methods.3 • Learning facilitator –engaging user- learners as reflective practitioners. What is the role of the strategic foresight practitioner? – A The strategic foresight practitioner does futures midwife not claim to know the future but aims to support and enable groups, leaders and A strategic foresight practitioner is not their organisations to prepare, shape and an armchair optimist or pessimist, nor create their future through the process an expert forecaster. of learning with futures. "The role of the strategic foresight practitioner is akin to that of a What can strategic foresight futures midwife" offer? Decision-making would be much easier The role is akin to that of a futures if small things had small effects, if midwife, helping anxious parents to big changes had big effects, and if breathe in and out whilst learning to what worked in the past continued to cope with new and surprising future work in the future. Yet our world is, possibilities encountered in bringing and has always been, full of surprises. forth new life – i.e. new ideas that would Our realistic hope for a better future otherwise not be considered or given any is realised through the reality of room to grow. Other ways to think about team-based decision-making and the the roles and skills involved include: development of collaborative and • Storytelling coach – using the power anticipatory strategies. of stories as a motive for change.
5 Many people, including leaders, struggle There is some good news: Modern to find the time for big picture never societies are not looking for leaders mind think more deeply about the who know what the future holds, but future. Human brains are ‘hard wired’ to for leaders who can help them realise avoid or ignore information that we find a better future for themselves, their threatening or makes us uncomfortable. families and communities. We care about the present and cognitively discount the future. Foremost The limited space for ‘open’ futures in our mind is a sense of future thinking in policy settings is not conducive based on an extrapolation of what to learning the way into the future we experienced recently. The limits of Even with gazillions more bytes of human cognition are real and cognitive data, there is less clarity and more time biases help us stay focussed and keep needed for mindful interpretation. The us sane and happy. most significant choices and decisions facing individuals and societies involve In policy settings, leadership incentives aspects of emotion and aesthetic are often biased towards stepping up judgement, which are not easily reduced in a crisis, rather than acting early to to noughts, ones or any other numbers. prevent crises from happening. Those Making tough decisions, more quickly willing to stick their heads above the and under unpredictable uncertainty, parapet, must also find the courage benefits from a good conversation. to confront unfamiliar and often uncomfortable realities and grapple with The art of "Many people, including leaders, the complexity and uncertainty of the diplomacy struggle to find the time for big situation. is to push picture never mind think more difficult deeply about the future" There is also intense competition problems for attention: dealing with pressing into the future and to hold them there and urgent issues is rewarding and until such time as there are new options satisfying. It gives us a sense of to resolve them. This constrains the clear purpose and can provide instant innovation space for good quality strategic gratification. There is also a presentism conversation in the diplomatic and highly bias and a culture of short-termism, ritualistic proceedings of regional and few incentives, no thanks and limited international organisations. One the other appetite to think beyond the next week, hand, there is a proliferation of ad-hoc election, decision point, etc. The default global partnership initiatives that operate response mode in policymaking is as de facto temporary institutions, each reactive rather than proactive. focussing on the specific challenge they perceive to be most significant to the common, human future in a more
6 "Good leadership involves globally connected world. National and individuals making tough decisions regional governments need to enhance in uncertain times. Great leadership their capabilities for strategic foresight to involves creating the future" enable a new era of global governance. Strategic foresight can support Redirecting leadership attention and the process of vision-into-action– enabling prospective judgement recognising that strategy is a storytelling Strategic foresight redirects leadership process of implementing leadership attention from knowing about the past imagination! This state-of-the-art to exercising prospective judgement practice is to combine conventional about things that have not yet policy assessments with participatory happened, in effect, by learning with a visioning, to clarify strategic choices and manageable and memorable number agree a set of clear and measurable of alternative futures. As such, it offers goals and supporting indicators. Then, a social learning journey that can avoid to maintain vigilance in implementing the trap of ‘if only’ by asking ‘what action to signals of contextual change if’. It is the solution to the eternal that might invalidate the plan. firefighting that becomes established in organisations that project retrospective What can obstruct it? analysis to look forward. Achieving the shift from producing a report of forecasting-based, policy analysis to Good leadership involves individuals using strategic foresight is a culture change, making tough decisions in uncertain rather than a substitution and upgrade in times. Great leadership involves creating tools. Leadership attention and champions the future – bringing different people are key to creating the space and time for and organisations together to make effective development and use of foresight real what exists in the imagination. and in encouraging and incentivising the The difference between ‘gut feel’ and accompanying change in behaviours. strategic foresight pivots on the quality of strategic conversation. It is important to be attentive to multiple barriers in the authorising environment. "Strategic foresight offers a These include: social learning journey that can avoid the trap of ‘if only’ by • Emotional barriers: fear of the asking ‘what if’" future, anxiety about uncertainty, which can be overcome by being Exercising good judgement about positive and realistic. things that have not happened is the • Culture barriers: an organisational fundamental evolutionary advantage of bias towards the short-term, a lack of healthy society and human flourishing. behavioural incentives, e.g. with zero
7 tolerance of failure or rewards only 1. We cannot rely even on the best for those who step up in a crisis. These experts to predict the future – all can be overcome by building a political facts are ‘of the past’ culture that rewards farsightedness Experts are getting better at forecasting, and commitment devices of various but the future is not the same a kinds to ensure that governments give long range analysis and it cannot adequate attention to future risks, be predicted. Despite an increasing threats, vulnerabilities, etc. abundance of information (Big Data) the future is empty of facts. The future is an • Institutional barriers: lack of culture of conversation, strong silos, entanglement of intuition, imagination, limited capacity for joined-up thinking and emotions - hypothesis and hunches. and action planning, leadership power Assumptions about the future are critical contests, and time delays between to thinking, analysis and decision-making thinking-action processes. and they are always in operation in any decision situation, often at an implicit/ Authorising environment tacit basis. There is value in revealing, Are you working with an testing and resetting deeply held Who has power? existing user or a fluid, assumptions and intuitions. Making the How are manufactured user group? decisions made? Is the user = producer? future explicit, testable and contestable provides a way to refresh the present. Po itics Peo e rga isatio Unexamined future assumptions are a Po er Setti g major source if surprise and uncertainty. t re i set 2. The future cannot be directly experienced; it can already be Are leaders rewarded for creating new ideas and realising new opportunities? perceived and experienced through Is there a dominant culture of decision storytelling making forecasting or conversation based? The future is always a story – the Source: A. Wilkinson & K. van der Eslt story is imagined, communicated and shared through the different processes STRATEGIC FORESIGHT IN of storytelling – including interactive PRACTICE: HOW TO DO IT? theatre, role play, group model building and gaming. Stories of new and different Why and when to use strategic futures are always emerging. These foresight stories are rendered and shared in In the new and still emerging reality it is different forms – narratives, numbers more important than ever to think about and images. Our depth of perception the future and equally important to of reality can be enhanced through evolve our approach different ways of knowing – scientific, to futures thinking: "The future is artistic, mindfulness. We can simulate always a story" 8 "Conventional wisdom is out of touch with fast moving and socially diverse 4. Organisations can better prepare new realities" and shape the future by learning with plausible alternative futures to future experiences through storytelling develop new collaborative strategies and the design and prototyping of new Many of the significant challenges artefacts. A good story motivated new facing societies across the world today action. Storytelling also reflects our are not simple problems that can be capability to be creative. Storytelling easily solved by breaking them down harnesses imagination and, as such, can into smaller and smaller parts i.e. be used to support, make explicit and using specialist and disciplinary-based test judgements about things that have knowledge of each part and identifying not yet happened. the optimal solution in separate domains of policy. Instead, societies 3. Global new reality is socially are facing connected challenges and complex: strategic knowledge exchange so-called ‘wicked problems’. Addressing is key to new shared understanding these requires developing a shared It is important to engage on a regular understanding of the bigger picture or ongoing, rather than one-off, basis and working with more than one, but with different perspectives of the future not too many futures to reframe and and to forge new shared sense through reperceive existing and new options. the exchange of perspectives and By maintaining the future as an the process of strategic conversation. open perspective that refreshes our Building new common ground is key to understanding of the present, we can flexible cooperation and the future can enable flexible cooperation and support be used as a safe space for constructive new collaborative strategies. conflict, to reveal and respect different perspectives and enable disagreement Principles for effective to be used as a learning asset. It is important to keep refreshing the new practitioners common sense enabled using strategic There is no single or best approach, but foresight processes. Conventional there are four basic principles to guide wisdom is out of touch with fast moving effective practice: and socially diverse new realities. Any 1. Purposeful design. A foresight form of futures thinking is transitory intervention process is initiated in and has a ‘shelf life’: it can be very response to a common concern. entertaining to read what past societies It is designed for use. It is thought about the future. phenomenological and not undertaken for the sake of studying the future but aimed at supporting a change
9 in behaviour and new action. It is 4. Be open and humble. Avoid the trap essential to clarify the purpose of of hubris – strategic foresight does the intervention and what success not claim to get the future right. All looks like from the outset. There is knowledge of the future is transitory: no audience in a foresight process. any strategic foresight ‘product’ has a The value of strategic foresight does shelf life. not come from reading a report but from engaging with the relevant The emphasis in designing an effective users from the start and, if necessary, foresight intervention is on choosing the manufacturing a core ‘user’ group. appropriate method for the task in hand. Learners need to be engaged to • What is the purpose of developing achieve the fullest benefits. foresight? E.g. setting directions, 2. Craftsmanship. Like riding a clarifying strategic choices, policy bicycle – you will learn by falling review, designing new policy options, off. Working with the future involves engaging diverse policy shapers? craftsmanship. It takes practice • Who is the intended user(s) and how/ to master a diverse toolkit; skilful when will they use the foresight? application is honed through continuous improvement. It requires • What does success look like to the being attentive to the authorising user? environment and the barriers to • What resources are available? success this can present. Sharing success and learning with failures will Once you have answers to these help to avoid repeating mistakes. The questions, then and only then, is appropriate choice and sequencing of it possible to design an effective methods depends on the purpose and intervention. The process is facilitated user(s). and draws on interdisciplinary and 3. Collaborate and create empathy multi-disciplinary expertise rather than – appreciating diversity and being expert-driven. The facilitator is embracing differences leads to not the source of futures knowledge but deeper understanding of the whole operates as a 'Futures Midwife'. system and to better solutions. Transformation is not the same as incremental improvement: inclusiveness and empathy are key to large scale creativity, social learning and collaborative innovation processes.
10 Common traps and pitfalls in strategic foresight interventions
Success factors Sources of failure Purpose Clarity about who will use the Failure to manufacture a foresight, how and when. coherent user and align on a specific purpose. Lack of agreement about who will use the foresight, when and to do what. User(s) Identified and engaged from the Selling an analytical report to start. Sometimes it is necessary prospective users who have not to manufacture a ‘single client’ been engaged in the foresight from a diverse group of users in process. different organisations. Authorising Secure a high-level champion. Lack of incentives for forward environment Start with a modest piloting acting leadership, a culture of initiative. blame and no tolerance for Share examples of how others learning with failure. ‘we’ admire are doing it. Governance Engage users from the start – Lack of clarity about who by proxy if not in person. decides and how and on what Clarify and agree a participation basis which futures need to be mode e.g. who decides which considered and why. futures are important to consider and how (core team, consultation with X, coproduction with XYZ, etc.). If 3rd party funders are involved, ensure they can guide the process but not dictate/influence the choice of plausible futures. Quality of Careful design of the whole Inexperienced facilitator. strategic process by an experienced Absence of a culture of conversation facilitator. conversation. Misunderstanding of the role of Space and time for generative narrative in meaning making by dialogue and constructive quantitative cultures. disagreement.
11 Success factors Sources of failure Immersive Use of storytelling and Failure to overcome the learning experiential learning techniques narrative barrier of the front which enable new memories neo-cortex of the brain. of the future to penetrate the cognitive barriers that keep us sane, happy and focussed. Timing Embed the foresight process, Initiating a foresight linking with and across all intervention without attention phases of the policy cycle. to the different phases of the Develop mechanisms to policy cycle. sustain intervention across political cycles and changes in Failing to link/embed into wider leadership. decision processes from the Clarify when new insights start of the intervention. developed in the foresight can be used in decision-making and to support new action planning. Choice of There is no single, best method Sticking to the way we do methods but a choice of methods and things around here! the selection and sequencing of methods should reflect the purpose in hand and the authorising environment. Evaluation of Design of an intervention Emphasis on inputs and impact and use of a developmental outputs e.g. number of experts, evaluation framework. Clarifying reports, citations (without measurable success before evidence of use). starting the intervention.
Source: A. Wilkinson
12 THE FORESIGHT METHODS • Plausible futures – including megatrends analysis and exploratory Foresight is a purposefully designed, scenario planning intervention process. It does not claim predictive power but maintains that the • Preferable or normative futures – future is open to human influence and including visioning (and backcasting) creativity. and design futures
There is a diverse toolkit of strategic A helpful place to start is to appreciate foresight methodologies which fall into the general differences between three main types – possible, plausible, forecasting and foresight. The next and preferable futures thinking: step is to be able to appreciate the differences, strengths and contingencies • Possible and still emerging futures – of the diversity of and within strategic horizon scanning foresight methods.
Common methods used in policy-relevant foresight Methodology Future as… Characteristics Horizon scanning Events and trends – open Systematic scan and collection and still emerging of events and trends
Output: a future-scape/visual mapping of new signals of change Megatrends Pattern shifts – interacting Analytical-discursive process analysis trends Output: THE story of the future (singular) and a plan of action Visioning A preferred direction – a A preferred direction – (and backcasting) description of a preferred a description of a preferred future state used to guide future state used to guide pathways for progress pathways for progress
Output: A shared understanding and explicit description of THE preferred future and a medium term roadmap detailing specific actions for making progress towards the vision
13 Methodology Future as… Characteristics Scenario planning A set of plausible stories Interactive and iterative, of the future content, not intellectual and social learning the self, that are coming process which involves at us from the future interviews and strategic whether we want them to conversation and is supported or not with analysis and modelling
Output: a set of 2,3 or more stories of plausibility-based/ exploratory futures (multiple) and how these might come about Policy gaming A ‘serious’ game – An immersive learning process behavioural insights that simulates and test the about the interaction of preparedness of a group/ key actors in response organisation to deal with an to a novel event or unfamiliar future event/situation hypothesised future situation Design futures Better – an interactive and Creative-immersive learning iterative process of goal- process involving the design orientated incrementalism of new and better future possibilities/products
Output: a viable prototype Source: A. Wilkinson
"Experts are getting better at forecasting, but the future is not the same a long range analysis and it cannot be predicted"
14 Forecasting Forecasting can be undertaken as an act of probabilistic prediction, an Forecasting is a data-rich activity. In assessment of the most likely future. Or forecasting we extrapolate the past. if can offer a conditional, evidence-based There are no breaks in logic allowed. projection – a baseline that assuming The future is assumed to be fully all other things remain equal, identifies contained in the statistically significant the cone of possible outcomes: the evidence base. The emphasis is on the singular future in terms of a high-, best-, predictability - accuracy, reliability and medium-, low-, worst-case ‘scenario’. precision - of outcomes. Forecasts can be used by anyone for anything.
Forecasting Foresight GDP growth in Ukraine next year Implications of continued Russian incursion into Ukraine Occurrence of extreme droughts in in New waves of regional migration into Sub-Saharan Africa in coming years Europe A company’s share price next week How the company’s share price will evolve over the next year EU consumer spending over the next two How consumer preferences and behaviours years will change in the next five years Projection of job losses due to increasing The productivity paradox: will/when will uptake of industrial robots the creation of new digital economy jobs exceed the loss of industrial economy jobs Source: A. Wilkinson
Horizon scanning environmental scanning and can take the form of an open search, a focussed Horizon scanning is an ongoing scan, a Delphi scan or even a multi- systematic process aimed at detecting lingual, data-mining meta-scan! early signs of new and different futures and disruptive developments: It seeks to Outputs can be presented as determine what is constant, what may quantitative trends, a visual ‘future- change, and what is constantly changing scape’ mapping of qualitative themes, in the time period under analysis. or a discourse analysis. Inputs can be Horizon scanning restricted to expert opinion and official "If you see a fork in is also known as sources or unrestricted and involve the road, take it" - contextual and Yogi Bear crowdsourcing and/or be collated 15 through a demi-structured interview There are four key stages in the process. The most common aim in scanning process: (1) scan and identify horizon scanning is to open up thinking - discover; (2) track and monitor - and strategic conversation to new future evaluate; (3) research and analyse; - possibilities and avoid ‘blind spots’. understand; (4) socialise and strategise Scanning can also be used to close down - take action. the future by identifying consensus about business-as-usual expectations (expert-led, Delphi scan).
Horizon scanning Benefits Methods Tools Examples Challenges Systematically Open Scan Desk top OECD Next Ongoing (low scan and Targeted research using a Production intensity) collect events Search variety of tools: Revolution process that and trends Data mining Meta-Scan requires active from diverse Sentiment 2015 management and information analysis Policy Horizons cannot be fully sources to Bibliometrics Canada outsourced enabling a Regression Technology Redirecting broader base analysis Scan 201x attention to new of futures developments knowledge to Trade off: be legitimised comprehensive vs. than the comprehensible statistically significant evidence base of the past
16 Benefits Methods Tools Examples Challenges Anticipate, Delphi An iterative More resource detect and Scan assessment and time prepare for of future intensive – time early signals of developments for effective disruption involving a engagement of pre-qualified experts panel of experts. Drive to Conducted in consensus several rounds can overlook of interview- or- important online surveys ‘outliers’ (weak and aimed signals) at clarifying consensus. Multi- An analytical- New Contours Resource lingual discursive of Conflict, intensive – time meta process involving Hague Centre and capacity scanning different for Strategic to collate and disciplines Studies interpret signals and enabling in different strategic languages knowledge sharing across different linguistic traditions Source: A. Wilkinson
Megatrends analysis A megatrend is not a single trend in history but represents the slow build-up A trend is a quantitative or qualitative of new momentum from a combination description of a change of an observable of many different trends. phenomenon that is expected to continue to move in a known direction, along a continuous line of change (linear, volatile, “A megatrend is defined as a major shift exponential) over a specified period of time. in environmental, social or economic Trend impact analysis involves identifying conditions that will substantially change the impacts of trends and the implications the way people live” - Our Future World, of these impacts for decision making. CSIRO 2012
17 Megatrends are deep-set trajectories the inevitable changes that will impact of change – pattern shifts – often with multiple domains of policy and strategy? decadal timeframes. They occur at the intersection of multiple trends which A megatrends analysis provides a relate to more tightly defined topics, conceptual framework to help leaders geographies and time periods. By and their organisations to think about working with megatrends, policymakers and prepare for inevitable pattern shifts can consider the questions: what has that will occur in a decadal timeframe. already happened but has yet to fully It redirects attention to inevitable, manifest and will catch up with us in underlying pattern shifts where causal future? How can we better prepare for logics are complex and cannot be fully known ahead of time.
Box 2: Megatrends methodologies Based on an exchange of national a mandate that prescribes the megatrend experiences by members use of foresight in policy, but can of the OECD Governmental Foresight be achieved bottom-up by an Community in 2014, the key steps authoritative independent study in the megatrends methodology which clarifies implications for are: (1) list and develop a typology policy; of megatrends; (2) decompose 2. Making it nationally relevant: to operationalise; (3) translate the translation of global forces into into national trends; (4) explore a national strategic agenda is a dynamics and timing of impacts; critical step; (5) match megatrends to sectoral priorities; (6) identify new threats and 3. Understanding the dynamic of opportunities; (7) explore impacts impact, in terms of when threats on markets and implications for and impacts materialise; technology. 4. Encouraging policymakers to consider reactive vs pro-active Principles of good practice emerging policy options; from this initial exchange on megatrend case studies are: 5. Adopting an inclusive policymaking approach, 1. Linking action to agenda from engaging key stakeholders in the , i.e. identify users and the start process e.g. involving the private their uses before developing the sector in the process to source analysis: This is made easier with investment in new solutions.
18 Megatrends process hat i So hat
e ti m act i F t re Timeframe?
Options hoice o ter e tio Po ic m icatio s
ctio So hat o Source: R. Warner
Megatrends Benefits Approaches Methods Examples Common traps Agile and No standard Brainstorming OECD Ad-hoc futures – flexible methodology: Storytelling no logical frame approach to a multistep Cross impact for clarifying appreciating process using matrix which futures the a combination Trend impact need to be interactions of of analysis, analysis considered and trends discussion and why creative thinking. Anticipate same as above Can be misused to shifts in support attention patterns e.g. to comfortable rapid ageing of developments societies rather than used to challenge business-as-usual thinking Develop shared sense of future outcomes and use to test existing policies and design new policy options Source: A. Wilkinson
19 Scenario planning Plausibility-based, scenarios planning (the term exploratory scenario Plausibility-based or exploratory planning can also be included) starts scenario planning involves building and with a qualitative inquiry which using a set of plausible, alternative maps assumptions, agreements and stories that can be used to reframe the disagreements of what might, or could present situation. happen from the perspectives of specific users and their needs. "The fish is the Scenario planning involves engaging and last to know it A set of two, three or more scenarios is respecting different swims in water" - then created using the coproduction of perspectives to develop Chinese proverb plausibility as the guide to attention to deeper and more shared the future. The scenarios are developed understanding of global causal logics, through a social learning process of using this to forge new common ground storytelling and systems thinking, and an and through a process of strategic iteration between strategic conversation conversation develop and sustain and analysis. The output is a set of story flexible, cooperative interventions. A set maps (events in time), or systems maps of scenarios comprises two, three or (interaction of drivers of change, time- more stories that reflect the causal logic independent system). Quantification can and behaviour of the wider, underlying be used to check internal consistency (socio-technological-ecological) system, of each scenario and to illustrate each, which is relevant to a specific decision but plausibility-based scenarios are not making, strategic planning and/ derived from a quantitative model – or understanding a new situation of they are not the same as the sensitivity concern. Scenario planning comprises analysis of model-based conditional an iterative and interactive intellectual projections. A set of scenarios does and social learning process that uses a not describe the uncertainties within a combination of storytelling and systems model, but rather the conditions under thinking to map out the interaction of which the existing/default model might actors and factors and interplay of be invalidated. events, interests and contexts and via a process of strategic conversation enable strategic reframing and re-perception (see Box 3).
20 Scenario planning Tools & Common Benefits Methods Examples Techniques traps Reframing and Many different Storytelling World Energy Confusion: reperceiving – plausibility Systems Scenarios 2016 not same as ability to consider based/exploratory thinking - The Grand quantitative model more and better scenarios Transition based conditional options building methods, UNAIDS: Three projection and including: Scenarios for forecasting with 2025 sensitivity analysis Reveal and test - Indictive; US NIC Paradox deeply held deductive; of Progress: assumptions abductive; Three Global critical futures; Scenarios 2017 perspectives-based. Engage In common: Group model World Energy Failure to use/ constrictively • Using plausibility building e.g. Scenarios 2016 use effectively: with uncertainty as a guide to rich pictures, - The Grand lack of and ambiguity the future lego modelling Transition engagement – reveal and • Working with Quant with users/ respect different 2,3 or more modelling did not clarify perspectives, alternative (illustrative purpose and create a safe stories of the purposes, use at start; space and future consistency not linked/ enabling conflict • Stories check) imbedded with to be managed describing the decision process; as a learning wider context focussing on assets (strategic marketing a landscape, not report rather the self) and than designing a how it came new service. about • plausibility as a guide to the future • plausibility as a guide to the future Forge deeper Lack of and shared leadership understanding capabilities - new common – open ground in mindfulness, developing strategic shared visions conversation Source: A. Wilkinson 21 Comparing methods ‘The Present’ ‘The Path’ ‘The Future’ Forecasting – probability Si g e F t re model Visioning – preference
Diverse Multiple Alternative perspectives pathways futures Megatrends analysis model ti e F t res model Plausibility-based stories Scenario Planning
Source: adapted from OSP/A. Wilkinson
Plausibility-based scenarios are not This whole social learning process is assigned probabilities – individually or only completed after several iterations as a set. Nor are they designed as all of the reframing and re-perceiving loop good vs. all bad future outcomes. Rather enabled by building and using scenarios than trying to identify the most likely, or – see Box 3. choose the best/preferred scenario, the aim is to keep the whole set in use.
22 Box 3: Strategic planning and decision-making in a ‘TUNA’ world Ramirez and Wilkinson (2016) clarify 5. A social learning culture the premises that underpin the supported by scenario planning effectiveness of plausibility-based can avoid the extremes of scenario planning: groupthink and fragmentation, 1. Many organisations are which are pathologies preventing facing unprecedented ‘TUNA’ learning in organisational settings. conditions – Turbulence, 6. A reframing strategy is Unpredictable uncertainty, Novelty, a distinctive capability that and Ambiguity enables learners to identify new 2. ‘TUNA’ conditions require opportunities, and more and better new approaches to strategic options. and policy planning that seek 7. Scenario planning can help to balance competitive and develop new social capital to renew collaborative opportunities the licence to operate. 3. An explicit, shared, and flexible 8. The future should be positioned sense of future is called for as an active sense, already in in ‘TUNA’ conditions. It can be the present, not still to come, and a enabled by contrasting plausible, domain of assumptions, not facts alternative future contexts through (which are always of the past). an iterative process of reframing These authors described seven and re-perception. plausibility-based scenario-building 4. The ‘aha’ moment of impact is methods and provide six case only realised once the reframing- studies demonstrating the return re-perception cycle has been of investment in scenarios in terms completed. This can require several of the different purposes, intended iterations. outcomes and impacts in each case.
The principles of good practice of 3. Ensuring the producers of the building and using scenarios in policy scenarios are regarded as legitimate settings include: and authoritative; 4. Ensuring consumers – policymakers – 1. Embedding the scenario work in wider understand the role of scenarios; policy processes; 5. Providing policymakers with the 2. Using a combination of stories and opportunity to learn with scenarios at modelling for impact; relevant points throughout the process.
23 BOX 4: Scenarios example: a new world order? In 2014, the OECD developed global In 2016, the US National Intelligence scenarios to support strategic dialogue Council published a report, entitled on the future of investment and jobs at Global Trends: Paradox of Progress, its annual Ministerial-level assembly. The as part of its mandate to prepare a scenario framework comprised three briefing for each incoming President. story archetypes, which were inducted The analysis presented in the report from a review of 50 sets of global suggests that there will be an scenarios published by reliable sources increase in tensions between states since 2010. In the process two other in the medium term next. The Report archetypes were rejected: heaven/all good outlines three alternative world orders vs hell/all bad storylines. An international that might emerge in the longer term: group of OECD national experts in • Islands: There has been strong governmental foresight developed push back against globalisation, the storylines and the scenarios were and governments are challenged presented in the form of a six-minute in meeting society’s needs for video as a scene setter to the strategic economic and social security in dialogue. The three scenarios were called: the context of slow growth and • Quick fixes: a reformed disruptive technologies transforming multilateral order (China led/ work and trade; some gov-ernments included, with digitally em-powered are more successful than others. citizens enabling faster bottom-up • Orbits: A fragmented world order feedback loops, and an uneven where competing powers seek own digital productivity boom). spheres of in-fluence in the context • Multipolar: a new world order, of rising nationalism, disruptive reordering pluralism, regionalism- technologies, decreasing global enables-globalisation, smaller but cooperation, and interstate conflict. more effective global agenda, different • Communities: Rising expectations pathways in digital productivity boom. and diminished capacity of • City power: a more bottom-up governments open space for local order emerges and realigns top governments and private actors order; alignment of na-tional- to provide some of the services urban policy frameworks to avoid typi-cally provided by government; risk of growing divide of urban vs. some governments resist, but rural in push to localised, circular others cede some power to the economies enabled in an era of emerging networks. digital globalisation.
24 Policy gaming using scenarios new financial crisis.) that reflects an unprecedented situation that might A serious game is designed for a primary happen in a plausible, relevant and purpose other than pure entertainment. challenging scenario. The computer- The 'serious' adjective is generally based modelling and simulation can prepended to refer to products used be performed in real time, or multiple by industries like defence, education, simulation runs can be recorded in scientific exploration, health care, advance. emergency management, city planning, engineering, and politics. For example, In each round the participants are war games are used in military settings provided with an update of the situation to rehearse battle plans. The entire and required to discuss and indicate how process often takes only a few days but they will react. The combined responses involves considerable preparation and are synthesised and used to recalibrate post-play analysis. the situation and set the scene for the next round of discussion, reaction and Policy gaming is a versatile method for interaction. eliciting a shared vision in confusing, exceptional and urgent situations, where At the end of the game, discussion precedent is of little value. The game focused on learnings and new takes the form of a carefully designed behavioural insights. Policy gaming can process that provides opportunities be scenario-based i.e. exploring reactions for an improvisational rehearsal of to a novel situation for which there are responses to a simulated real-life no existing or known solutions in the situation, to generate new insights about history of human experience. human behaviours.
A policy game takes the form of a simulated interaction that combines "A painful and conflict-ridden interactive dialogue with computer- collective thought experiment based simulation. It is usually designed is much more desirable than around a specific event (a tipping point or crisis of some kind, e.g. a a conflict-ridden and stalled implementation process." (Geurts et al., 2007, pp. 535–559)4
25 Box 5: Example of event-based policy gaming design Introduction and scene setter Presentation of the specific situation – for example tipping point situation/crisis trigger event
Round 1: initial positions and Round 2: in same role play groups responses in role-play teams/ Based on learning about the table group interaction of reactions–each role play Discuss the situation specific actor/ actor adjusts their strategy. A further organisation of actors seen from a update on the situation is provided – number of different actor-role play this reflects a real-time simulation of perspectives. the impact of aggregated actions. • What policy action is needed to Repeat as necessary. effectively respond to the situation and deal with it effectively? Closing reflections Each individual/organisational Reflection by facilitator on voting perspective group shares their response. patterns. Invitation for closing An update on the situation is provided reflections: What have we learned? – this reflects a real-time simulation of the impact of the actions.
26 “To assess hope we have to measure the future” - Translating Normative futures - Visioning António Vieira and design futures a vision into actionable policies can be achieved through A vision is a normative description of a process of back-casting from future an imaginable future (preferred or to be to present to identify strategic priorities, avoided) which reflects shared values and goals and indicators that are relevant to motivates a change in action. Positive designing a robust policy pathway and visions are developed to help clarify and tracking and measurement of progress. reduce the gap between the expected Exploring how the goals are linked/interact 'business-as-usual' outlook and an with each other can be useful for discovery agreed, 'better' outcome. Imaginative and of new cross-cutting, horizontal solutions inspirational visions are needed to realign spaces that cannot be seen or populated by values, help forge new common ground working from within any one policy domain. and provide strategic direction that is Designing new policies (experiments) within essential to shared agenda setting, inclusive each new solution space followed by fast, prioritisation and cooperative action safe-fail iterative learning (prototyping) planning. To avoid unrealistic dreaming, it is enables agile strategies to emerge and necessary to tether a vision to reality. adapt as progress to the vision is achieved.
Normative and design futures Benefits Approach Methods Examples Common traps Implement an Visioning and Visioning WBCSD Vision Failure to translate imaginable and backcasting Backcasting 2050 vision into preferred future Road Slovenia Vision actionable and Create and Mappping 2050 measurable goals shape new and Failure to consider better future and pilot new policy possibilities solution spaces and instead focus on available tried and tested options Support Design 'Provotyping' Redesigning Assumption of iterative and Futures & public services idealistic society interactive Protoyping Single futures bottom up thinking can limit strategy or ability to engage goal-orientated effectively with incrementalism uncertainty Source: A. Wilkinson
27 Normative futures ‘my/ our preferred future’ ormati e F t re Visioning & Backcasting The Roadmap esig F t res Goal-orientated rre t sit atio incrementalism t s o s co e etter Provotyping & Prototyping Source: A. Wilkinson
Vision-into-action process isio Strateg ctio here o e o to get there From or s i e to e i to ee s Strategic oa s icators Priorities Picture or Areas of Milestones that Measurements Action plan description of a development we need to reach that show how Concrete projects country/ society/ until 2030 on to implement successful we individual in 2050 which we need strategic priorities are in reaching Structural reforms to build to bring Concrete, our goals Budget the Vision 2050 Measurable and to life Timeframed
Source: A. Wilkinson & K. van der Elst
Design futures A prototype can be thought of as a We are all familiar with the way in physical embodiment of a 'What if…?' which companies bring new products to card. It is an untested hypothesis about the market. They develop a prototype the future that can be accepted, rejected a new product/devices/service. Using a or reimagined by those that engage process of interactive design the test with it. A prototype is introduced in and refine the original design through the early exploratory phases of the simulated and real-world use, making design development process to cause improvements and learning through a reaction — to provoke and engage failure, as well as what works. people to imagine possible futures. Prototypes are designed artifacts that
28 are informed and inspired by emerging SUGGESTED technologies, user interviews, and co- FURTHER READING creative engagement with end-users and organisational stakeholders. They Global Megatrends – Seven Patterns can be used as a quick and effective of Change Shaping Our Future Stefan means to explore a problem/solution Hajkowicz. May 2015. CSIRO. Australia. space by providing tangible ideas to See also https://publications.csiro.au/rpr/ spark discussions. Here the goal is not download?pid=csiro:EP126135&dsid= to evaluate the artifact but to pick it DS2 apart, manipulate it and explore new directions. In doing so, the artifact Learning with futures to realise progress ignites discussions around deeper unmet toward sustainability: The WBCSD needs or ideas for possible futures. Vision 2050 Initiative. Wilkinson, A. & D. Mangalagiu, 2012. Futures, 44(4), 372-384. Design-orientated and vision-based preferred futures are reflexive in that Living in Futures, Harvard Business they aim to create reality through Review, May 2013 https://hbr. a process of bottom-up, goal based org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures incrementalism rather than top-down, Global Trends - Paradox of Progress, USA grand strategies and detailed blueprints. national Intelligence Council, January 2017. https://www.dni.gov/index.php/ "A prototype can be a global-trends/the-future-summarized physical embodiment of Strategic Reframing, The Oxford a 'What if…?'" Scenario Planning Approach, Rafael Ramirez and Angela Wilkinson, March 2016, OUP, Oxford.
Working with Wicked Problems, Philippe Vandenbroeck, shiftN http://www. issuelab.org/resource/working_with_ wicked_problems
29 Illustrative examples of policy-relevant strategic foresight Initiatives Scale and Main Methods Mode Purpose MetaScan 3: Emerging Organisational, Forward Horizon Scanning Technologies, Policy Horizons expert-led Technology Canada, 2014 assessment Assessment http://www.horizons.gc.ca/ eng/content/metascan-3- emerging-technologies-0 UK Government Office for Inter- National Megatrends & Science, Future of Cities organisational, policymaking Scenarios project, 2014-2016 https:// expert-led www.gov.uk/government/ assessment collections/future-of-cities AIDS in Africa: Three System, Regional Scenarios and scenarios to 2025, UNAIDS, participatory Governance modelling 2005 (multi- http://data.unaids.org/ stakeholder Publications/IRC-pub07/ coproduction) jc1058-aidsinafrica_en.pdf Resource scarcity The Future Inter- Collaborative Forecasting, Availability of Natural organisational, strategy Scenarios & Resources multi- Interactive http://www3.weforum.org/ stakeholder futures design docs/WEF_FutureAvaila consultation bilityNaturalResources_ Report_2014.pdf World Business Council for Business Collaborative Trends analysis, Sustainable Development consortia- innovation visioning and (WBCSD) Vision 2050 - The led , multi- back casting new agenda for business stakeholder http://www.wbcsd.org/ consultation Overview/About-us/ Vision2050/Resources/Vision- 2050-The-new-agenda-for- business
30 Initiatives Scale and Main Methods Mode Purpose UNEP Inquiry: The Financial Inter- Global Case studies and System We Need - Aligning organisational, Governance scenario planning the Financial Systems with multi- Sustainable stakeholder Development: UNEP (2015) consultation http://web.unep.org/inquiry/ publications Slovenia Vision 2050 - System, National Conventional National Development societal Governance policy analysis Strategy coproduction combined http://www.vlada.si/en/ with strategic media_room/newsletter/ foresight slovenia_weekly/news/ (megatrends, article/a_vision_for_slovenia_ visioning & in_2050_59337/ backcasting, disruptors analysis)
31 Further details on two of the above examples of using strategic foresight on global policy challenges
Case Study/ Why/ For who/ How So what Intervention purpose users and (method) (impact/ uses outcomes) WBCSD Vision Securing Inter- Participatory Forge new 2050 voice - a organisational visioning common seat for Global Gap analysis ground (World progressive business and back- Translated Business business at leadership casting new into action via Council for the global consortia pathways local WBCSD Sustainable negotiating supplemented supported by chapters Development) tables with wider quantitative No feedback engagement modelling loop to with multiple Development capture stakeholders of an bottom up in different integrated learning world regions roadmap Stress testing using scenarios Identification of new solution spaces
32 Case Study/ Why/ For who/ How So what Intervention purpose users and (method) (impact/ uses outcomes) OECD Global Sense International Meta scan of Re-directing Archetype making organisation existing global leadership Scenarios - scene OECD scenarios, attention to setter for member and global emerging negotiations key partner trends and global on common countries megatrends developments agenda literature to and disruptive Open space identify set changes for informal of common discussion scenario Building about the frameworks shared impact of and develop strategic alternative new storylines vocabulary global policy to support and contexts policy understanding on current dialogue of the globally investment shifting and jobs landscape policies
33 POST SCRIPT: started to emerge. Centuries later IMPLEMENTING we are still in awe at this bottom-up innovation! IMAGINATION THROUGH SHARED VISIONS AND Moving forward centuries to a state- COLLABORATIVE STRATEGY of-the art of scientific endeavour in The Chartres Cathedral, also known as the 20th century, the existence of the the Cathedral of Our Lady of Chartres Higgs-Boson particle was proposed was built in the Middle Ages at a site by a team of six particle physicists in of pilgrimage, 1964. No-one at the time knew how – or "Imagining the future 80km southwest even if – it could be detected. Followed is exciting – creating it of Paris. It was decades of design prototyping and trial- requires hard work" completed in and-error experimental the particle was 1220 AD and eventually detected through a process of its construction took over a hundred theory-inspired, collaborative innovation. years. It was built in a time when there From the outset, no-one was sure how were no multi-story buildings. It is World to detect the particle or even if it really Heritage Site and provides as inspiring existed. example of how people worked together to learn their way into the future and Looking at these examples which are in the process achieved unimagined distant from each other in time and possibilities. Those involved in its purpose, we start to discover some construction were clearly motivated common characteristics about how to by a sense of common purpose (i.e. to learn the way into the future. There were celebrate the glory of God on Earth), no detailed blueprints; the design was different communities of craftsmen emergent. There was a shared vision set to work. There were no detailed and a common goal which sustained architectural blueprints. No one knew the endeavour over decades. Multiple what the finished building would look communities of practice, with different like. Everyone who started working on tools and vocabularies, related to each the project knew they would not live to other through a process of strategic see it completed. Even so, everyone conversation. There was a culture of who worked on the project performed deep craftsmanship, an ability to learn to the very best standard of personal with and through failures, and the craftsmanship. Through a process of emphasis on shared successes. People, interactive and iterative design, build, methods and practices changed along trail-and-error, the magnificent edifice the way.
34 Endnotes 1. Question asked by HM Queen Elisabeth II on her visit to the London School of Economics. 2. See Strategic Reframing – The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, by Rafael Ramirez and Angela Wilkinson. OUP, March 2016. 3. See above book, pages 116-119 for a description of each scenario-building method 4. Geurts, J.L.A., Duke, R.D., Vermeulen, P.A.M., 2007. Policy Gaming for Strategy and Change. Long Range Planning. 40, 535–558.
35 PDF/Volume_01: Numéro de catalogue: ES-06-17-272-EN-N • ISBN: 978-92-79-75373-2 • DOI: 10.2872/71492 Site/Volume_01 HTML: Numéro de catalogue: ES-06-17-272-EN-Q • ISBN: 978-92-79-75372-5 • DOI: 10.2872/826793
36 Angela Wilkinson
Senior Director, Scenarios and Business Insights, World Energy Council (WEC)
Angela is currently working with WEC members, global partners and patrons to anticipate prepare and shape the global energy transition for the benefit of all.
She brings 30+ years’ experience in strategic advisory support to high-level leaders in government, business, and civil society, honed from working in public and private organisations in 20+ countries. She is a world class foresight and scenario planning expert: Angela has conducted over 100 futures projects, including the direction of large, international, and multi-stakeholder initiatives. Previous roles include Strategic Foresight Counsellor at the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD); Director, Scenarios and Futures Research, University of Oxford; Head of Special Projects, Shell scenarios. Board-level and International Advisory Board experience. Associate Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford. Fellow of the World Academy of Arts and Science. She has written two books on and published many articles on strategic foresight, scenario planning and global risk management. She is also CEO, Oxford Futures Limited – an independent consultancy specialising in helping leaders and their organisations to learn their way into the future. Angela has a PhD in Physics.
37 Disclaimer This publication was prepared by the European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC) in the context of the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) 2017 Annual Conference Global Trends to 2030: The Making of a New Geopolitical Order? The views expressed in this publication represent only the views of the authors. This publication does not bind, nor may be attributed to, any of the European Union institutions and bodies participating in ESPAS, namely the European Commission, the European Parliament (EP), the General Secretariat of the Council of the EU (GSC) and the European External Action Service (EEAS), as well as the Committee of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee.