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Tune Ins Holdings RHB Research PP 7767/09/2012 (030475) 01 Apr 2013 MARKET DATELINE MALAYSIA EQUITY Investment Research The Research Team 603 9207 7620 [email protected] Initiating Coverage Tune Ins Holdings Buy Target MYR1.75 Tuning In To Good Prospects Previous - Price MYR1.39 We initiate coverage on Tune Ins Holdings (TIH) with a BUY recommendation and MYR1.75 FV (+25% upside), pegged to 18x FY14 EPS. Its earnings are supported by the strong expansion of its online Insurance Tune Ins Holdings, an investment insurance business, better underwriting margins and potential tie-ups. holding company, is a provider of various These positive drivers are kept in balance by better claims and general and life insurance products in expense management. We think TIH deserves a premium due to the Asia Pacific. The company’s range of expectations of more robust earnings growth relative to its local peers. products includes online insurance products, travel and lifestyle protection, and guest personal accident insurance. We've got you covered. TIH’s long-term partnership with AirAsia enables it to ride on the low cost carrier’s aggressive network expansion into new Stock Statistics markets. The online travel insurance business remains highly profitable, Bloomberg Ticker TIH MK making up 20% of the group’s revenue but over 50% of PAT. There are Market Cap MYR1,052m significant opportunities to boost its online insurance business, such as via the USD340m opening of new markets, notable increases in take-up rates, higher passenger 52 wk H/L price 1.45 1.28 growth and stronger contributions from countries where it can fetch better 3m(MYR ADT) MYR7.50m profit margins. YTD Returns (%) Beta (x) 1.00 TIMB’s turnaround strategy. Its non-online general insurance (GI) arm Major Shareholders (%) Tune Insurance Malaysia (TIMB), acquired in 2012, is a potential turnaround Tune Money SB 55.9 story. Plagued by losses in the past, TIMB is currently making efforts to AirAsia 16.2 improve its profitability. It has discouraged its >1,000-strong agents from company, engages in the selling non-profitable products and is also striving to improve its claims ratios. provision of various general These efforts could potentially bring down TIH’s group combined ratios to and life insurance products in Share Price Performance (%) <70%, which should boost underwriting margins. the Asia Pacific. The company Month Absolute Relative offers a range of online 1m 6.9 4.8 insurance products, including Initiate coverage with BUY. Our MYR1.75 FV, pegged to 18x of FY14 EPS, 3m - - travel, lifestyle protection, and provides a 25% upside. The P/E is pegged to TIH’s 3-year CAGR of 17% vs the 6m - - guest personal accident average 1.0x P/E-growth (PEG) ratios of the insurance stocks under our insurance12m - products. - coverage. That said, we do not advocate TIH as a dividend stock given its low 6-month Share Price Performance dividend yield of 2%-3%, assuming minimum payout ratio of 40%. Price Close Relative to FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index (RHS) 1.50 109 Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F 1.45 106 Net premium revenue (MYRm) 165 211 217 222 253 1.40 103 Net income to ord equity (MYRm) 29.6 49.2 39.1 61.1 72.6 1.35 100 Net profit growth 59.2% 66.1% (20.4%) 56.3% 18.8% 1.30 97 Recurrent net profit (MYRm) 29.6 49.2 47.4 61.1 72.6 1.25 94 Consensus EPS (MYR) 0.04 0.07 0.06 0.08 0.10 1.20 91 EPS (MYR) 0.04 0.07 0.05 0.08 0.10 27-Feb-13 07-Mar-13 15-Mar-13 25-Mar-13 19-Feb-13 DPS (MYR) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.04 Source: Bloomberg EFAPChartPriceRelPerfDaily| Dividend Yield - - - 2.3% 2.8% Return on average equity - - - 17.8% 18.8% Return on average assets - - - 6.7% 6.7% P/E (x) 35.5 21.4 26.9 17.2 14.5 P/B (x) na na 9.78 2.89 2.58 Source: Company data, RHBRI estimates RHB Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 1 A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively available for download from www.rhbinvest.com Powered by Enhanced Datasystems’ EFA Platform RHB Research TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................ 2 INVESTMENT CASE ................................................................................... 3 A LEGACY OF THE TUNE GROUP ................................................................. 4 CORE BUSINESS 1: ONLINE INSURANCE ..................................................... 7 CORE BUSINESS 2: GENERAL INSURANCE ................................................ 12 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS: PLENTIFUL, PLEASANT TUNE ............................ 15 INVESTMENT RISKS: REQUIRES SOME FINE-TUNING ................................. 23 OTHER CATALYSTS ................................................................................. 30 FORECASTS ........................................................................................... 33 VALUATIONS ......................................................................................... 38 FINANCIALS .......................................................................................... 40 APPENDIX ............................................................................................. 42 RHB Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 2 A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively available for download from www.rhbinvest.com RHB Research INVESTMENT CASE We peg TIH’s FV to P/E for its strong Pegging our FV at 18x FY14 EPS. Our FV for TIH is at MYR1.75, pegged to forward earnings growth 18x of FY14 EPS. The PER is premised on TIH’s three-year CAGR of 17% against the average 1.0x PE-growth (PEG) ratios of the insurance stocks under our coverage. We have high expectations of the online What we like. The investment highlights are: insurance business and see a turnaround in TIMB’s business Increasing contribution from the highly profitable online insurance business segment, expected to grow at high double-digits of 30%-40% Plenty of opportunities for higher-than-expected online growth. While we do not think take-up rates can surge easily, there are other opportunities, such as potential new consumer base coverage (i.e. new partnerships to gain customers other than through Tune Group and AirAsia), higher passenger growth, and stronger contributions from countries where it could get better margins (i.e. Australia). TIMB’s turnaround story. New key strategies to improve the efficiency and profitability of its non-online GI segment include reducing claims occurrence and selling products with better underwriting margins. TIMB had already taken steps to improve agency efficiency by suspending unprofitable agents and encouraging sales of profitable products Improving CARs. TIMB has shown significant improvement in capital adequacy ratios (CARs). We believe CARs for the TIH group level is likely to be higher given the less capital-intensive online segment. Rebranding. TIH is rebranding itself to Tune INSURE, and is taking efforts to discover new marketing avenues through IT investments. Two key areas are enhancing sales capabilities of AirAsia’s sales personnel and improving online presence, as many people are either unaware of the importance of travel insurance or have misconceptions of TIH’s products relative to other providers. We think TIH is highly exposed to What we don’t like. The downside lies in: competition (in the GI segment), sensitivities associated with online reputation and customer service, as well as Unattractive dividend payouts. Assuming a 40% payout, the dividend volatility in loss ratios such as claims and yield is merely 2%-3%. management expenses TIMB’s tiny 1.7% share of the total GI market, and small agency force pose significant challenges in its efforts to grow its market share and strengthen its market positioning amid an increasing competitive landscape. TIH is highly dependent on the quality of service both of its own and that of AirAsia. Due to its high exposure to online marketing, a deterioration of customer service, decrease in flight punctuality, dissatisfaction in claims processing or any adverse changes in both TIH’s and AirAsia’s reputations could easily affect customer perceptions. Seasonality. 1Q and 4Q are typically stronger quarters due to higher travel demand. For TIMB’s segment, some quarters may be stronger than others depending on agents’ performance. Expenses could be volatile. Claims could surge if there are special circumstances or higher claims frequency. Management expenses surged in FY12 due to the hiring of additional human capital. RHB Research | See important disclosures at the end of this report 3 A comprehensive range of market research reports by award-winning economists and analysts are exclusively available for download from www.rhbinvest.com RHB Research A LEGACY OF THE TUNE GROUP Figure 1 Company structure AirAsia TMSB 16.2% 55.9% 100% 100% 83% 100% TIL TMGR TIMB TMLR 100% Capital OCA (Dormant) Source: TIH Prospectus Figure 2 Shareholders structure <---------- Pre-IPO --------> <--------- Post-IPO --------> Substantial Shareholder No. of shares (m) % held No. of shares (m) % held (1) Tune Money SB 486.7 80% 419.9 56% (2) Tune Group SB 486.7 80% 419.9 56% (3) Tune Air SB 121.7 20% 121.7 16% (4) AirAsia 121.7 20% 121.7 16% (5) CIMB Group Holdings 486.7 80% 419.9 56% (6) Tan Sri Dr Anthony Francis Fernandes 608.4 100% 541.5 72% (7) Dato' Kamarudin Bin Meranun 608.4 100% 541.5 72% GRAND TOTAL 608.4 100% 751.8 100% Note: The shareholding
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