Asia Observatory

ASIA OBSERVATORY

BAO-05/2019(09)

January 28 – February 03, 2019

Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies

Ankara 2019

2019 © All Rights Reserved. No part of this piece may be reproduced, copied or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or printed, without the permission of BAAM. The views expressed in this piece are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect our stance or policy.

2019 © Tüm Hakları Saklıdır. BAAM’ın izni alınmadan kısmen veya tamamen elektronik veya basılı olarak çoğaltılamaz, dağıtılamaz ve yayınlanamaz. Yazıda belirtilen görüşler yazara aittir ve BAAM’ın görüşlerini yansıtmak zorunda değildir.

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Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies

Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies (BAAM), founded in April 2018 in Ankara, is an independent think tank operating as an initiative of the Bosphorus Association for Social Research (BOSAR). In addition to Ankara and Istanbul, there are a total of 20 researchers who make contributions from different countries. BAAM is conducting research on the Asian region, mainly the Far East. Major areas of our studies include Asian Politics, Belt and Road Initiative, Great Power Competition, Foreign Policy of China, Political Economy of Asia Pacific Region, and the Turkey- Asia relations.

The reports, briefings, opinions, translations and special news prepared by BAAM researchers are published on bogaziciasya.com and the weekly Asian Observatory bulletin which is shared with related individuals and organizations via Internet.

Among the languages that the researchers in the team are able to read and write are French, Italian, Japanese and Amharic as well as English and Chinese. In this way, local resources can be used in research and a wide perspective is provided. The multi-lingual and heterogeneous structure brings together rich perspectives through in-team exchanges.

Our studies are also published by SETAV, Bosphorus Migration Studies, The New Turkey E- Magazine, Journal of Dunya, Yildirim Beyazit University Center for Migration Research and Theory in Turkey, and by the Istituto Affari Internazionali in Italy.

From Director

Greetings from the fifth bulletin of 2019,

Established 10 months ago, the Bosphorus Center for Asian Studies fills an important gap in the Asia-Pacific area with its Asian Observatory and other activities. Our first internship program will start in mid-February. We will make progress in all our projects together with our new friends.

So far we have held 9 coordination meetings in Ankara. Our Istanbul branch has made significant progress so far. The number of our freelance researchers from different cities of Turkey and the world is increasing. 2019 will be the breakthrough year for BAAM. We continue with our excitement on the first day.

This week there was also a development that was a source of pride for the entire team. Our Academic Coordinator Dr. Haşim Türker's new book was published. This week, we will publish a comprehensive review of the book.

I greet our readers on behalf my esteemed team.

I wish you pleasant readings.

Kind regards

Mehmet Enes Beşer Chairman @BOSAR & Director @BAAM

From the Editor

China's global impact is undoubtedly based on the economic growth it has achieved in the last 20 years. Economic growth has inevitably played a leading role in the development of other elements of its national power. However, with Trump’s coming to power in the United States and the global recession, China's growth has seen a remarkable slowdown.

If China does not achieve the projected growth rates, many projects, especially the Belt and Road Initiative, may be disrupted. In addition, the boundaries of the area of its influence that China is trying to create will also have to shrink.

In view of the trade wars between the US and China, it would also be possible to see some slowdown in the ambitious Chinese foreign policy that started with Xi Jinping coming to power. Trump and Xi are expected to hold a meeting in the coming weeks as the 90-day ceasefire between the US and China is approaching its end. The news on the negotiations indicate that the negotiations between the two countries have reached a certain level. Achieving a viable outcome in trade wars will have a positive impact on the global economy as well as on relations between the two states.

Asia-Pacific region will celebrate lunar new year on February 5. It will be celebrated in China, as well as in other countries with Confucianist population. New year is also called in China as 'the Spring Festival'. In this calendar, the name of one of the 12 zodiac animals is rotationally given to the years. This year's name is the pig year. We wish a happy New Year and Spring Festival to all Confucianism believers.

Haşim TÜRKER, Ph.D. Academic Coordinator @BAAM

Editorial Board

Mehmet Enes Beşer (Director)

Haşim Türker, Ph.D. (Academic Coordinator, Senior Researcher)

Rukiye Ünal (Senior Researcher)

Nazmul İslam (Senior Researcher)

İrem Songül Alagöz (Researcher)

Kübranur Korkmaz (Researcher)

Esra Eymen Cansu (Researcher)

Mustafa Aydoğan (Researcher)

Pınar Erçetin (Researcher)

Murat Can Yazılı (Researcher)

Abdullah Dumangöz (Researcher)

Mert Karakadılar (Researcher)

Nesibe Gül Kılıç (Researcher)

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Belt and Road Initiative ...... 9 As questions are raised about ‘belt and road’, projects slow in Southeast Asia ...... 9 The 21st century maritime Silk Road ...... 9 Reports of Belt and Road’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated ...... 10 China hosts Monday media forum on "Belt and Road" initiative ...... 10 Great Power Competition ...... 11 Here Are Three Scenarios for U.S.-China Trade Talks This Week ...... 11 On U.S.-China Trade, Will Xi Jinping Keep His Promises to Trump? ...... 11 U.S. Charges Huawei and Top Executive With Breaking American Laws ...... 11 Beijing Criticizes U.S. Criminal Charges Against Huawei ...... 12 Blunting China’s Illiberal Order: The Vital Role of Congress in U.S. Strategic Competition with China ...... 12 U.S. Navy Nightmare: The Chinese Fleet Doesn't Have 300 Ships, It Has 650...... 13 French Navy displays commitment to balance China in Indian Ocean through port call in Mumbai ...... 13 The Growing Russia-China Threat to America ...... 14 Spite Won’t Beat China in Africa ...... 14 What messages does the latest Sino-U.S. trade talk convey? ...... 14 Trump meets with Chinese vice premier to discuss ties ...... 15 Challenges in South Asia to grow due to elections in Afghanistan, India: US report ...... 15 Cannot allow trade deficit with China to continue: Trump ...... 15 Xi Jinping and Donald Trump ‘may meet in Da Nang, Vietnam’ at the end of February ...... 16 US and China may seek to extend trade war truce before Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet to finalise deal ...... 16

Chinese Politics ...... 17 China-Laos Tourism Year started with events...... 17 Corruption in China: the charm of villas and the smell of coal in Shaanxi ...... 17 What makes lunar Chinese New Year distinct from Christmas? ...... 17 Inside China's audacious global propaganda campaign ...... 18 Artificial Intelligence: China’s High-Tech Ambitions ...... 18 Xi Jinping shows his friendship with the Emir of Qatar ...... 18 Cambodia’s Government Denies Reports it Will Amend Constitution to Allow Chinese Naval Base ...... 19

Political Economy ...... 20 8 top stories from Davos 2019 ...... 20 What Soybean Politics Tell Us About Argentina and China ...... 21 Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere Into the Center of the World Economy? ...... 22 Latest on China-US Trade Talks ...... 23 Asian Agenda ...... 24 ISIS Bombing of Cathedral in Philippines Shows Group’s Reach Into Asia ...... 24 Taliban Talks Raise Question of What U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan Could Mean ...... 24 North of 26° south and the security of Australia ...... 25 Will There be Peace for Women in Afghanistan? ...... 25 Korean Problem ...... 26 Sanctions, peace deal on cards for new US-NKorea summit ...... 26 What 2018 Taught Us About North Korea ...... 26 The EU’s role in stabilising the Korean Peninsula ...... 26

South China Sea ...... 27 Implications of Indonesia’s New Military Base in the South China Sea ...... 27

Belt and Road Initiative

As questions are raised about ‘belt and road’, projects slow in Southeast Asia

China is reshaping the approach of its flagship “Belt and Road Initiative” in Southeast Asia, as Chinese projects in the region plunged last year amid growing global scrutiny of Beijing’s development strategy. The value of newly announced big-ticket deals in the region – investment commitments and construction contracts worth more than US$100 million – dropped 49.7 per cent in 2018 to US$19.2 billion, its lowest in four years, according to analysis by Citi Economics, using data amassed by the US think tank American Enterprise Institute.

(South China Morning Post: Analysis)

The 21st century maritime Silk Road

Bilateral trade growth between China and the Middle East reportedly hit $85bn in 2018 – having doubled over the past decade – and significant further growth is expected. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a stand-out example of how that growth can take shape. Introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2013, it consists of the Silk Road Economic ‘Belt’ and the 21st Century Maritime Silk ‘Road’. The ‘Belt’ runs from China through Central Asia to Europe, while the ‘Road’ is sea-based, running through Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East to Europe.

(MEED: Commentary)

Reports of Belt and Road’s Death Are Greatly Exaggerated

It would be premature, however, to write off BRI. The project remains the core of China’s foreign policy strategy. Since the 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress in October 2017, BRI has been enshrined in the party’s charter, and its corollary, the “community of shared future for mankind,” has been included in the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China since March 2018. Beijing is due to host its second Belt and Road Forum, an international planning and brainstorming event for heads of state, in April 2019.

(Foreign Affairs: Analysis)

China hosts Monday media forum on "Belt and Road" initiative

The Chinese embassy in Gabon and China africa media are co-organizing this Monday in Libreville the first national forum of media and journalists on the “Belt and Road” initiative.

(Gabonactu: News)

Great Power Competition

Here Are Three Scenarios for U.S.-China Trade Talks This Week

While the announcement of a final deal isn’t expected this week, there’s a good chance negotiators will come up with a package of proposals to present to both presidents, said William Reinsch, a former Commerce official during the Clinton administration.

(Bloomberg: Commentary)

On U.S.-China Trade, Will Xi Jinping Keep His Promises to Trump?

During the 2018 G20 Summit in Buenos Aires, U.S. President Donald Trump held a much-anticipated, high-stakes meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The leaders agreed to suspend the mutually destabilizing U.S.-China tariff and trade war for 90 days. The arrangement was made after Xi agreed in principle to purchase a “not yet agreed upon, but very substantial” amount of U.S. agricultural, energy, and manufacturing products and to negotiate within 90 days “structural changes” in forced technology transfer, intellectual property rights, non-tariff barriers, and cyber security.

(War on the Rocks: Commentary)

U.S. Charges Huawei and Top Executive With Breaking American Laws

The Justice Department unveiled sweeping charges on Monday against the Chinese telecom firm Huawei and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, outlining a decade- long attempt by the company to steal trade secrets, obstruct a criminal investigation and evade economic sanctions on Iran.

(New York Times: News)

Beijing Criticizes U.S. Criminal Charges Against Huawei

China's Industry and Information Technology Ministry has criticized the U.S. Justice Department's decision to file criminal charges against Huawei, calling the indictment politically motivated, CNBC reported Jan. 28. The U.S. Justice Department issued criminal charges against the company on Jan. 28 for allegedly stealing trade secrets from U.S. telecommunications firm T-Mobile and against its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, for violating U.S. sanctions on Iran.

(Stratfor: Situation Report)

Blunting China’s Illiberal Order: The Vital Role of Congress in U.S. Strategic Competition with China

1) The United States and China are now locked in a geopolitical competition that will endure for at least the next decade. 2) The United States, on balance, is currently losing this competition in ways that increase the likelihood not just of the erosion of U.S. power, but also the rise of an illiberal Chinese sphere of influence in Asia and beyond. 3) To avoid these outcomes, the central aim of U.S. strategy in the near term should be preventing China from consolidating an illiberal sphere of influence in vital regions and key functional domains. 4) The U.S. government is not approaching this competition with anything approximating its importance for the country’s future. 5) Despite current trends, the United States can still prevent the growth of an illiberal order in Asia and internationally.

(CNAS: Analysis)

U.S. Navy Nightmare: The Chinese Fleet Doesn't Have 300 Ships, It Has 650

You have to count the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia. The Chinese fleet is much bigger than most people think. And that should compel the United States to reconsider its Pacific maritime strategy, one expert argued. The People's Liberation Army Navy by 2020 will possess between 313 and 342 warships, the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimated. By comparison, in mid-2018 the U.S. Navy possessed 285 warships.

(National Interest: Commentary)

French Navy displays commitment to balance China in Indian Ocean through port call in Mumbai

The French Navy anti-aircraft destroyer FNS Cassard has docked at the military port of Mumbai in the first implementation of the agreement for the provision of reciprocal logistics support, which was concluded during the State visit of President Emmanuel Macron to India in March 2018 and came in effect a few weeks ago. It illustrates, in more ways than one, the continuous deepening of France and India’s partnership in the Indian Ocean, guided by the Joint Strategic Vision adopted by both countries last year, and the excellent cooperation between their navies.

(Economic Times: News)

The Growing Russia-China Threat to America

Appearing before the Senate Intelligence Committee yesterday, Daniel Coats, the Director of National Intelligence, stated that China and Russia “are more aligned than at any point since the mid-1950s.” His warning confirms the importance of the cover story by Graham Allison and Dimitri K. Simes in the January-February issue of the National Interest titled “New Best Friends?” that contains essays by each author carefully examining the growing ties between Beijing and Moscow.

(National Interest: News)

Spite Won’t Beat China in Africa

When Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi touched down in Ethiopia, Burkina Faso, Gambia, and Senegal in January, he was not there to cut the ribbon on the new roads and bridges that have been at the center of U.S. attention toward Chinese efforts in Africa. Wang’s trip, like many others made by Chinese leaders in the last three decades, was intended to reinforce the layers of networks and relationships that have been spun between Chinese and African diplomats, military officers, party officials, journalists, and civil servants.

(Foreign Policy: Analysis)

What messages does the latest Sino-U.S. trade talk convey?

On January 31, after two days of arduous negotiations, the new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States was concluded. How to evaluate the outcome of the latest negotiation? Li Yong, a current affairs commentator and senior fellow at the China Association of International Trade, shared his views with CGTN.

(CGTN: News)

Trump meets with Chinese vice premier to discuss ties

U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday met with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He to discuss bilateral ties at the White House. China and the U.S. have made "important progress" in its current stage of negotiations and will keep close communication to work on a trade deal that benefits both sides, Liu He was quoted as saying by Xinhua. Trump said he is looking forward to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.

(ECNS: News)

Challenges in South Asia to grow due to elections in Afghanistan, India: US report

The United States National Intelligence Director, Daniel Coats, outlined the global security threats facing the United States on the threat assessment report last Tuesday. The highlights of the report are; the elections in Afghanistan and India in 2019, large- scale Taliban attacks and "Pakistan’s recalcitrance in dealing with militant groups". Coats also included Pakistan-India tension associated with Pakistan's growing nuclear arsenal, and China-Indian border tension.

(Dawn: News)

Cannot allow trade deficit with China to continue: Trump

Trump on February 1 threatened to go ahead with his planned slapping of additional tariffs on Chinese imports if the deal is not reached by March 1. President Donald Trump has said US' massive trade deficit with China cannot be allowed to continue, a day after the officials from both countries concluded their latest round of negotiations on trade issues.

(Moneycontrol.com: News)

Xi Jinping and Donald Trump ‘may meet in Da Nang, Vietnam’ at the end of February

Source familiar with discussions says the two sides are considering a meeting in the coastal city on February 27 and 28. The presidents are expected to continue pushing to resolve the trade dispute between the two nations.

(South China Morning Post: News)

US and China may seek to extend trade war truce before Donald Trump and Xi Jinping meet to finalise deal

The upbeat tone after the latest round of talks in Washington has raised hopes of an agreement to cut tariffs. US president has talked up prospects of meeting his Chinese counterpart to strike a final deal. The latest trade talks between China and the US have raised expectations that the two sides will try to extend their tariff truce or even start reducing tariffs. On Thursday, US President Donald Trump suggested he may meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for talks to finalise a deal. In early December, Trump and Xi agreed to suspend further tariff increases before March 1, but if they cannot reach a deal by that date the US has threatened to raise duties on US$200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 per cent to 25 per cent. But they did not discuss the US charges against Chinese telecoms giant Huawei and its chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou, who has been accused of fraud relating to breaches of US sanctions against Iran. When he welcomed the Chinese delegation to the White House on Thursday, Trump said he hoped to meet Xi once or twice to conclude the deal. Trump said he had no plan to extend the March 1 deadline, but was confident the two sides could settle their differences.

(South China Morning Post: Makale)

Chinese Politics

China-Laos Tourism Year started with events.

2019 China-Laos Tourism Year opened with events in Laos. Chinese President Xi Jingping sent congralutory letter that mentions the developing relations between the two countries. In his letter, Xi underlined the fact that the two countries are old friends, and called for a joint effort on the future of relations between the two countries. The decision of China-Laos Tourism Yea was made after Xi's visit to Laos in May 2018.

(CGTN: News)

Corruption in China: the charm of villas and the smell of coal in Shaanxi

If there is one province in China that the "fight against corruption" could not miss, it is the Shaanxi, ancestral land of Xi Jinping, in the northeast of the country. But it took a more sensitive turn than expected. Two corruption cases, one on a park of villas and the other on the juicy exploration rights of coal, involve key figures of the current regime, related to Xi himself. Will the huge purge launched against Jiang Zemin's networks turn against its initiator?

(Asialyst: Analysis)

What makes lunar Chinese New Year distinct from Christmas?

The lunar New Year, more commonly known as Spring Festival or the Chinese New Year, will be celebrated on February 5 this year. It is the biggest festival and holiday in China. It is celebrated not only in China but also in few Asia countries that Confucianism used to be historically influential, such as Singapore, the Republic of Korea (ROK), Japan and Vietnam. Every year the Chinese people welcome the lunar New Year with a new zodiac animal, which rotates in a 12-year cycle, and 2019 will be the year of the pig.

(CGTN: Commentary)

Inside China's audacious global propaganda campaign

For decades, Beijing’s approach to shaping its image has been defensive, reactive and largely aimed at a domestic audience. But over the past decade or so, China has rolled out a more sophisticated and assertive strategy, which is increasingly aimed at international audiences. Figures are hard to come by, but according to one report, the Daily Telegraph is paid £750,000 annually to carry the China Watch insert once a month.

(Guardian: News)

Artificial Intelligence: China’s High-Tech Ambitions

China aims to become the world’s premier Artificial Intelligence (AI) innovation center by 2030. But does Beijing have the innovation capacity and strategy in place to achieve this goal? In this article, Sophie-Charlotte Fischer responds. She contends that while the US is still the global leader in AI, China’s ambitions should not be underestimated. Further, this is not just because of the state support behind Beijing’s plans but as Washington lacks an AI strategy of its own.

(CSS-ETHZ: Article)

Xi Jinping shows his friendship with the Emir of Qatar

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the return of "unity" and "harmony" in the Gulf countries on Thursday during a visit to Beijing by the Emir of Qatar. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt broke their diplomatic, trade and logistical ties with Qatar in June 2017, accusing them of supporting terrorism and rapprochement with Iran. The dispute does not seem to be resolved, despite the mediation efforts of Kuwait and the United States. Qatar has moved closer to other countries like Turkey.

(L’Orient LE JOUR: News)

Cambodia’s Government Denies Reports it Will Amend Constitution to Allow Chinese Naval Base

Cambodia’s government on Friday denied reports that the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) plans to amend the constitution to allow China to build a naval base in the country, amid growing influence from Beijing in the Southeast Asian nation.

(RFA: News)

Political Economy

8 top stories from Davos 2019

1. Climate change and the loss of biodiversity 2. A new path for Venezuela? 3. Trade tensions 4. New Zealand’s budget 5. Women’s role in the workforce 6. Africa's digital vision 7. Refugee camps 8. The future of Europe

(WEF: News)

What Soybean Politics Tell Us About Argentina and China

It was located in a small part of soybean cultivated areas in Argentina's agriculture- dependent economy. In the last thirty years, soybean has begun to account for about 50 percent of these cultivated areas. If we look at it statistically; Argentina exported more than a quarter of all export items to soy products and exported $ 17 billion to China last year. However, it is not only Argentina; the other sountries such as Brazil and Paraguay have also expanded the soy in Asian export items against soybean demand. In addition, beans are just the beginning. China over the past decade; it has became the largest trading partner in the region by increasing its total trade with Latin America and the Caribbean to $ 244 billion in 2017. With this position, China has seen a striking development, leaving behind America in the backyard of America. China exported in line with their needs; oil from Venezuela and Ecuador; copper and iron from Peru and Chile, soybeans from Brazil and Argentina. Thusi China's influence has spread and deepened, especially in left-leaning governments with financial difficulties and seeking an alternative to American influence.In December, Xi and Macri signed more than 30 new agricultural and investment deals, covering $ 8.6 billion in December. Argentina, which has become increasingly dependent on China, is now trying to strike a balance between China and America.

(NY Times: News)

Can China Turn the Middle of Nowhere Into the Center of the World Economy?

The Eurasian Point of Inaccessibility where is located at the farthest point of any ocean or sea on earth; it is taken part the east of China's border with Kazakhstan. Being faraway from areas where there is water is synonymous with poverty. However, the biggest infrastructure project in world history is being carried out between the two branches on the Tian Shan - Kazakhstan border, where white steppes and blue-beige mountains are located. This region has only 908 of the official population. But it is as part of China's OBOR project, it has hundreds of new facilities have become a place to build infrastructures such as the pipeline and the overseas transport route network. When the necessary infrastructure is completed, this will create a cage system all over the world by land and sea routes, and the factories in China's coastal areas and the rising consumer class are in with Central, Southeast and South Asia; with Gulf States and the Middle East; with Africa; with Russia and Europe will be able to move freely in the global world where mutual dependence is increasing; it is planned to be a cross- border place that completely covers the logic of globalization. However, as in other projects shaped around China OBOR project, this project does not provide any number of participating countries or a guiding principle. In this context, the role played by China can be understood as a vague visible hand that directs all connected developments in infrastructure, energy and trade.

(NY Times : Commentary)

Latest on China-US Trade Talks

China - US officials have come together in Washington to solve for the ongoing trade tension between the two countries for months. Both sides were in favor of reconciliation. Before March 1, the two countries are expected to reach a concrete agreement on disputes. News Agency Xinhua announced on Friday that Chinese and US officials ‘’have conducted intimate, detailed and constructive negotiations and made significant progress for the current phase.’’. The other hand White House commented that; ‘’ featured productive and technical discussions on how to resolve our differences.”. Interviews; trade balance, technology transfer, protection of intellectual property rights, implementation mechanisms and other common interest issues were reported. In mid-February, top US officials are expected to go to China for details of the agreement. After the talks, Mei Xinyu, a researcher at the China International Trade and Economic Cooperation Academy, said that undoubtedly the struggle will continue between the two countries , but the important thing is to continue talks and avoid losing control.

(CGTN America: News)

Asian Agenda

ISIS Bombing of Cathedral in Philippines Shows Group’s Reach Into Asia

A deadly bombing of a cathedral in the Philippines has brought fresh attention to the Islamic State’s ability to metastasize across the world, even as the militant group has been reduced to a sliver of turf in Syria. The attack, consisting of two detonations, struck the Cathedral of Our Lady of Mount Carmel on the island of Jolo at the southern end of the Philippines, a region where Muslim insurgents have for decades battled the Catholic-majority state. At least 20 people were confirmed dead in the assault, which took place just as worshipers gathered for Mass on Sunday.

(NY Times: News)

Taliban Talks Raise Question of What U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan Could Mean

President Trump’s headway in Afghan peace negotiations with the Taliban raises the same question that has bedeviled other presidents who extracted American troops from foreign wars: Will the departing Americans end up handing over the country to the same ruthless militants that the United States went to war to dislodge?

(NY Times: News Analysis)

North of 26° south and the security of Australia

In 1986, Australia was a long way from the global conflicts of the day. Of course, Russia made efforts to bring superpower competition to our region—with its presence in the Pacific and Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam—but failed. The Cold War between Russia and the US also fostered a comforting alliance of necessity between China and the West that lasted until the fall of the Berlin Wall. Australia now finds competition and potentially conflict far closer to home, especially in the South China Sea.

(Australian Strategic Policy Institute: Yorum)

Will There be Peace for Women in Afghanistan?

Under Taliban administration, Afghan women and girls suffered right violation of many issues, including freedom of movement and education. Although it has not been on the agenda for a long time, there is a possibility of peace on the horizon. So, to what extent can Afghan women participate in a possible peace negotiation? In which direction will women's rights be a bargaining in an agreement planned with the Taliban?

(Human Rights Watch / HRW: Opinion)

Korean Problem

Sanctions, peace deal on cards for new US-NKorea summit

As Donald Trump seeks progress with North Korea at a second summit, the United States has a series of cards it can play including easing sanctions, signing a peace declaration or even pulling troops from South Korea.

(AFP: Commentary)

What 2018 Taught Us About North Korea

The Singapore summit declaration includes an aspirational claim of Northern denuclearization, but only contingent on undescribed U.S. policy changes, and with no firm deadline or timeline. In the interim, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has tried to no avail on several occasions to pull specifics out of the North. Moon has continued to hype this year’s process as progress, but on the core strategic issues of nuclear weapons and missiles, there has been almost no progress we on the outside can verify.

(National Interest: Analysis)

The EU’s role in stabilising the Korean Peninsula

The diplomatic situation in the Korean Peninsula is changing at enormous speed due to the conjunction of three factors: the rapid development of the North Korean nuclear programme under the leadership of Kim Jong-un, the election of Donald Trump as US President and that of Moon Jae-in as President of South Korea. In this context, this working paper analyses the position of the EU and its member states towards the current situation and the role they can play in the stabilisation of the Korean Peninsula.

(CSS-ETHZ: Article)

South China Sea

Implications of Indonesia’s New Military Base in the South China Sea

The island of Natuna, which is the largest in the southern peripheral of the South China Sea and there are various rights and interests of Indonesia and China on this island. So far there have been some conflicts in this island between Jakarta and Beijing about the fishing boats; but Indonesia has not claimed any rights over the South China Sea. Indonesia has always been sensitive about the sovereignty claims and rights. The Jokowi government began to focus on the waters around the Natuna region after the repetition of illegal fishing events involving Chinese fishing boats. Indonesia created a new map in 2017 that renames a controversial part of the sea, which is located in the North Natuna Sea (Laut Natuna Uttara). Subsequently, a military base was inaugurated in Natuna Besar in Indonesia on 18 December 2018. However; When the Indonesian President visited Japan, he said; ‘’China's territorial claims in the South China Sea have no legal basis under international law.’’. Indonesia stated that with the base established in Natuna’sta, China aims to be a deterrent to the illegal policies of the region. But the logic behind this new step of Indonesia needs to be analyzed in a broader context in the context of the emerging dynamics of the Indo-Pacific concept. For illegal fishing has always been a source of concern for Indonesia, but such strict measures have never been implemented.

(Observer Research Foundation: Commentary)