The future of Murmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels
YRJÖ MYLLYLÄ
Myllylä, Yrjö (2006). The future of Murmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels. Fennia 184: 1, pp. 59–73. Helsinki. ISSN 0015-0010.
This paper evaluates the development of the socio-spatial structures and geo- economic position of Murmansk Oblast up the year 2025. The study applies strong prospective trends and industrial cluster approaches in analysis and inter- pretation and it interprets the results in the context of regional development theories. The Delphi method is applied for analysing the potential development paths of Murmansk Oblast. Two Delphi panels were set up in 2005. The panel data in this article consist of the answers of 77 persons including pilot interview. The experts in the Murmansk panel are from Murmansk Oblast, the ones in the Mos- cow panel are from Moscow and St. Petersburg, and those in the international panel come from Finland, Norway and Great Britain. The clusters of transportation and energy will be the most probable growth sectors in Murmansk Oblast during 2005–25. According to the expert panels the three most important strong prospective main trends influencing socio-econom- ic development in Murmansk Oblast constitute the potential of logistics and transport, the impacts of new technology and globalisation. From the viewpoint of development theories the development of Murmansk Oblast seems to rely very much on the argumentation of the resources and physical environment and supply-side theories.
Yrjö Myllylä, c/o Oy Aluekehitys RD,Meriusva 5, FI-02320 Espoo, Finland. E- mail: [email protected].
Background 2005) (Fig. 1). There are several military bases in the area. During recent years the economical After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the eco- growth has been slower than in the rest of Russia. nomic integration of Murmansk Oblast to the glo- Mining and the metal refining are the biggest bal market has created new opportunities not only branches of production. There has been fairly little in relation to the utilisation of natural resources in new production in the area. However there has the region, but also regarding the development of been an increase in services and lately also in the knowledge-based industries, such as information construction sector (Didyk et al. 2005). The opin- technology, environmental business, tourism and ions concerning the future of Murmansk Oblast logistical services. Developing of Murmansk Ob- have varied over the years. Very different opinions last for instance the transport and logistics infra- have been presented concerning the development structure system in a rational manner requires an of Murmansk Oblast seen either as regressing pe- assessment of the future population development riphery, or as a junction of traffic and industry, as and economic conditions of the region. The futures well as an export channel of the Northwest Rus- studies approach provides methods to develop this sian oil to the world market (Kauppala 1998; Lau- assessment. sala & Valkonen 1999; Oldberg 2000; Filippov et Murmansk Oblast belongs to the Northwest al. 2003; Brunstad et al. 2004). Russian governmental region. It is also a part of the Murmansk Oblast has to be examined not only Barents Euro-Arctic co-operation area. The popu- as a part of the Barents region and Northern Eu- lation is concentrated to Murmansk as well as to rope, but also as a part of a global system. Russia some resource communities (Rautio & Andreev is integrated in global trade especially through the 60 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
Fig. 1. Population of Mur- mansk Oblast is concentrat- ed in Murmansk, mining and industrial localities and lo- calities nearby military bases. Data source of urban popu- lation: Murmansk region in figures 2004. export of energy over recent years and this fact specialists’ panel consisting of the actors in Mos- strengthens the role of the Barents Sea and Mur- cow and St. Petersburg and the international panel, mansk Oblast (Tykkyläinen 2003b: 172; Brunstad mainly consisting of Finns. The article gives an et al. 2004). overall picture of the opinions of these three Del- phi panels concerning the future development of Objectives – evaluation of the needs of Murmansk Oblast and creates starting points to build more exact scenarios for further investiga- development of socio-economic tions. development and logistics Taking these premises as starting points this re- search aims at evaluating the economic structure The objective of this article is based on specialists’ of the region, particularly in relation to the indus- interviews to analyse the development of the Mur- trial structure, population, and logistics infrastruc- mansk Oblast and factors that have an impact on ture. The point of the analysis is that appropriate the development during a period extending until planning for future infrastructure in regard to logis- the year 2025. The research is based on the utilisa- tical needs is impossible without a well-grounded tion of the methods used in futures studies as well assessment of the region’s future population struc- as geographical theory. The aim is to create prob- ture and economic conditions. able pictures of the future taking into considera- tion the changing factors possibly that make an impact on the development. Theory framework – strong prospective In this article the economical, social and logisti- trends and clusters approach cal development of the future in Murmansk Oblast is outlined as part of the Russian geoeconomy and The trend approach of the strong prospective is based on the interview material of the special- trends (SPT) belonging to futures studies forms the ists’ panel consisting of actors in Murmansk Oblast most important theoretical viewpoint. Central to and the previous analysis of the development of the concept of futures studies is that it is not pos- the area as well as on the interview material of the sible to predict the future only on the basis of past FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 61
The most important objective aimed for is to recognise the key SPT trends in Murmansk Oblast because based on these it is possible to later on make other evaluations concerning the develop- ment in the area. The trends influence the development of the clusters in the area. The word cluster normally means bunch. In this context it stands for a co-op- eration network consisting of companies and other actors such as research institutes and schools. There are companies in a cluster who produce their products for the market (e.g., Porter 1990). These “locomotive companies” commanding the market are normally big companies – but there may be significant differences between the lines of business activities. In particular the research and educational sector form an important group of ac- tors because the success of the clusters depends more and more on know-how. The finance sector forms an important group of actors in the cluster. Clustering in the form described above is called Fig. 2. Model of a strong prospective trend (Original source: Toivonen 2004: 10). Published with the permission of Marja vertical clustering. In horizontal clustering learn- Toivonen. ing and creating of innovations form an important reason for enterprises and other activities to find their ways closer to each other (Malmberg & Maskell 2002: 438). Especially the vertical clusters manifest them- developments. A strong prospective trend is a fu- selves and materialise in geographical spaces, ture trend or way of development which is based which require the analysis of transport infrastruc- on the fact that there is (e.g. statistical time series) ture. In this research nine clusters have been se- showing the existence of a trend and that the ex- lected to be more closely examined (Table 1). The perts who evaluate this trend agree that the trend objective has been to examine existing strong clus- will continue in the future. In practice, the SPT ters and so called rising clusters. Data on the struc- concept means the same as the commonly used ture of the economics of the area as well as pilot mega trend concept, but is a more grounded sci- interviews have been used as instruments. entific argumentation (Slaughter 1996; Toivonen It has been intentional to collect the clusters in 2004: 6–10). sufficiently big groups of industry in order to make Strong prospective trends may lead to different data handling and using the method of specialist kind of futures (Fig. 2). Prospective trends can re- interviews possible. Mining and metal refining, late to phenomena that have a long history or they food stuffs, transportation and logistical services could be phenomena in which a certain direction form the existing clusters most clearly. Particularly of development has been detected only lately. Pro- tourism, ICT clusters, environmental clusters, wel- spective trends can continue in the future along fare clusters and partly also security clusters can their current direction or the trend may break off all be considered as rising clusters. In the energy and lead to a different kind of future from how it cluster there are existing activities (as electrical could be deduced from today’s development production) as well as rising activities (possibly (Toivonen 2004: 10). There are weak signals whose e.g. gas production). current appearances may be the reason for the dis- Finding key actors, who have a strong influence continuation of the trend. Weak signals may with on the above-mentioned development of Mur- time become stronger, turn out to be significant mansk Oblast, are the most important challenge. phenomena and develop into even strong trends. The interview data and a cluster-based approach A strong trend can also emerge when several weak are used to identify those actors with the greatest signals combine with one another. influence over the region’s development. 62 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
Fig. 3. Causality connec- tions. Driving force actors have an impact on the crea- tion of the SPT trends. The SPT trends may be grouped in main trends. SPT trends have an impact on the devel- opment of the clusters. The cluster appears in geographi- cal space and the logistics play an important role in its development. The actors make the decisions in the de- velopment of the clusters and logistics on which the trends also make an impact.
Thecausality between economic and social fu- with an expert panel. Typical features for the meth- tures as well as anticipating of the logistical devel- od is that there are two or more interview rounds, opment needs in Murmansk Oblast are outlined in and in between them a feedback summary direct- Fig. 3. Behind the strong prospective trends (SPT ed at the participators in the panel, as well as, ano- sub trends and SPT main trends) there are driving nymity (e.g., Sackman 1975: 9; Kuusi 1999: 74). forces, i.e. factors, whichare making an impact on By using this method opinions can be expressed the development of Murmansk Oblast; for example without others being able to identify whose opin- the growth of the world economy, the growth of the ions they are. In this case the arguments in the an- world population, the unstable situation in the Mid- swers will play a central role as the participators dle East (especially the impact on the oil price), the assess other participators’ answers. This has proven transition process in Russia among others. Strong to be the strength of the method. The structure of prospective trends have an impact on the clusters. the material presented in this paper as well as the Forexample the oil price givesaboost to arising research is shown in Table 1. energy cluster based on oil in the area. Theclusters TheDelphi method is rather aform of adevel- on the other hand are geographical phenomena oped theme interview than an opinion survey and hence logistical development actions are need- (see e.g., Kuusi 1999: 77, 80). Therefore, the cri- ed in order to have afavourable development of teria concerning the amount of samples and sta- these. Both the development of the clusters and the tistical tests whichare assumed for opinion re- development of their logistics require decision- search should not be required for this material making on different levels. and handling of it as assumed by Sackman (1975: 26). When analysing the material in the future the so called policyDelphi (Tyroff 1975) tradition Methodology and data should be emphasised, where the interest groups and the differences between their opinions and The policy Delphi method causes are recognised instead of trying to reach some common view for the whole panel or the The Delphi-method is the most well-known meth- panels in the conventional Delphi-application od used in future research based on interviews way. FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 63
Table 1. The grouping of specialists participating in the material of the article based on their competence and interest. Here ‘competence’ refers to special experience in clustering and ‘interest’ actors in clusters. Panels interview rounds and number of respondents: Murmansk panel consists of pilot interview (10 persons), Delphi-panel’s 1st round (25 persons), Delphi- panel’s 2nd round (19 respondents); Moscow-panel consists of Delphi-panel 2nd round interview (6 respondents) and inter- national panel consists of Delphi-panel 2nd round interview (17 respondents).
INTEREST Companies Finance and Research and Administration Other / Sum /Actors in cluster other support training Independent service w w w w w w
COMPETENCE Murmansk Mosco International Murmansk Mosco International Murmansk Mosco International Murmansk Mosco International Murmansk Mosco International Murmansk Mosco International
Energy/Cluster 3 12 232823 Mining and metal 3 11 11 5102 processing Transportation and 3111 11 11514 logistical services Food 51161 Tourism 21 12 33 ICT 3122273 Environment 22141 Welfare 2111 261 Safety 11 Others 42 42 Sum 23 56 64 212496 54 617
The interviewees – the interest and suggest participants from above interests of com- competence of the participants of the panel petence. have an impact on the opinions In choosing the participants of the panel the com- Scenarios petence and interest of the participants in the theme of the research must be recognised. For ex- Strong prospective trends (SPT) ample Osmo Kuusi has stated that the opinions of the participants are bound to these two dimen- Based on pilot interviews in the 1st round of the sions (Kuusi 1999: 193–205). In the research nine Delphi-panel there were 75 different deductively different clusters formed the competence alterna- derived strong future trends created as proto trends tives of the participants of the panel (Table 1). En- there. To the 2nd interview round 27 sub trends terprise, financing and related supporting services, with strongest for support from the specialists were research, education and administration are points selected. Evaluated sub trends and their grouping of interest. The so called group of independent into main trends I–V and a tentative driving forces forms an important group of their own. For exam- analysis in the Delphi-panels 2nd interview round ple the representatives of the civic organisation are shown in Table 2. belong to this group. The international group is in In this paper the results are handled on the main its entity independent of its interest because at this trend level. The respondents are grouped in differ- moment the income of the participants could not ent panels according to their viewpoint. There are be considered depending on Murmansk Oblast. In three panels: the Murmansk panel, the Moscow the pilot interview the participants were asked to panel, and the International panel. The Murmansk 64 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
Table 2. Evaluated sub trends and their grouping into main trends I–V and a tentative driving forces analysis in the Delphi panels 2nd interview round.
DRIVING FORCES SPT SUB TRENDS SPT MAIN TRENDS
Connections of the Murmansk Area 1Development of transportation technology 2Development of information and communication technology I Technological Development Deepening of co-operation with rest 3Development of energy technology of Europe 4Increase in number of small enterprises Degree of corruption and economic risks 5Increase of information and communication flow 6Increase of transportation in mining and metal industry Development of energy prices 7Increase of oil transit II Logistical flows 8Increase of gas transit Growth of world economy9Increase of coal transit 10 Increase of container traffic Historical factors / traditions of the 11 Increase of capital and financing flows Soviet Union and Transit process in 12 The expansion of EU and deepening of the integra- Russia tion Natural resources of Murmansk and 13 Increase of traffic and trafficability in the north-west Barents Area Passage 14 Increase of domestic electricity price (liberation of energy markets) III Globalisation Old fashioned education / anticipation 15 Increase of the international oil market price 16 Increase of domestic price on oil and oil products Policy of small enterprises 17 Increase of Russian economy 18 Increase of political and economical co-operation Power politics in Russia (e.g. Oligarchs 19 Increase and westernisation of individual values in Kremlin) 20 Increase in openness Role of various forms of energy and 21 Strengthening of environmental values IV Value based EU’s energy policy 22 Increase of personal welfare development Situation in the Middle East 23 Increased risk of environmental disaster (oil, nuclear) 24 Decrease of the population Time / corrosion / nuclear waste 25 Continuation of migration to economical centres V Development of 26 Change in the structure of population (ageing socio-economy of population) the population Threat of terrorism 27 Increase in income level 28 A positive development of world market price on metals and apatite VI Other, what? Word politics of USA and Russia and 29 Increase of importance of the geopolitical position USA-Russia relations in the Murmansk area
panel is divided into three councils that represent The most important SPT trends influencing in existing, rising, and independent clusters. The ba- the beginning of the 21th century sic assumption is that the information given by the participators of the panel depends on their inter- Today the trends that make an impact on the eco- ests (Kuusi 1999: 79, 193). Based on the panels nomic development in Murmansk Oblast are and the councils different opinions about main somewhat varying between the respondent group factors influencing development can be created as (Table 3). The Murmansk panel as a whole empha- they are presented in Table 3. sises in the first place the technological develop- FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 65
Table 3. The impact of the main trends on the economical development in the Murmansk Area in the beginning of 2000 and the strengthening of the trends until 2025. The numbers are the mean values of the scores given by the panel members.
Questions Q 1.2 What is your opinion on the significance of the following trends especially in the economic development of Murmansk Oblast?1 Q 1.3 How do you expect the trend to change by the year 2025?2
SCENARIO SCEN 1SCEN 1 ASCEN 1 BSCEN 1 CSCEN 2SCEN 3
PANEL Murmansk Murmansk Murmansk Murmansk Moscow panel International /Council panel: all panel, council panel, council panel, council panel respondents 1., representa- 2., representa- 3., representa- tives of the tives of the tives of the existing rising clusters independent clusters clusters
MAIN TREND average3 average average average average average Q 1.2 Q 1.3 Q 1.2 Q 1.3 Q 1.2 Q 1.3 Q 1.2 Q 1.3 Q 1.2 Q 1.3 Q 1.2 Q 1.3 2005 2025 2005 2025 2005 2025 2005 2025 2005 2025 2005 2025
I Technological 3.61 3.97 3.45 4.00 3.71 4.04 2.75 4.00 4.01 4.17 3.41 4.38 development II Logistical flows 3.61 4.06 3.29 4.00 4.01 3.96 2.07 4.50 3.70 3.69 3.13 4.04
III Globalisation 3.47 4.36 3.19 5.00 3.73 4.28 3.21 4.14 3.79 3.85 3.27 4.16
IV Value based trends 3.03 3.35 3.13 3.00 2.96 3.25 3.20 3.80 2.90 3.00 3.09 4.00
V Socio-economical 3.39 3.34 3.48 3.75 3.39 3.60 3.13 2.50 3.44 3.42 3.42 3.61 development of the population
1 Scale for the questions 1.2: Impact value of trends 1 = very small, 2 = small, 3 = moderate, 4 = strong, 5 = very strong. 2 Scale for the questions 1.3: 1 = decreases significantly, 2 = decreases slightly, 3 = remains unchanged, 4 = increases slightly, 5 = increases significantly. 3 Note that average values should be considered with certain reservations as they are based on the answers of only a few sporadically chosen persons especially concerning the council of the Murmansk panel.
ment, then the logistical flows, and finally globali- trends the distribution is also seen in the so called sation as the acting main trends. The international sub trends of the main trends when comparing the panel, which in this respect can be considered responses from the various respondent groups. representing also an independent view, emphasis- When interpreting these results one should bear in es the socio-economic development of the popu- mind that the number of respondents in the vari- lation together with the technological develop- ous groups is small. ment and the globalisation trend in the third place. There is a sub trend that belongs to the main trend The development of SPT trends up to the year of globalisation and that is the increase of the in- 2025 ternational oil market price, which has a big im- pact on economic development in the Murmansk region. According to the Murmansk Delphi panel The panels and their councils share the same view- this trend will continue and be strengthened in the point concerning those three trends that are most future. likely to strengthen by the year 2025: globalisa- From the answers we can draw the conclusion tion, logistical flows and technological develop- that the different groups at this moment agree on ment are the most strengthening trends. However, the importance of the value-based trends and so- there are some differences in how they rank the cio-economic development trends. However con- order of relative importance between these trends cerning the other trends the distribution is more (Table 3). The average values should be considered widerly dispersed (Fig. 4). Similarly in the main with a certain reservation as the amount of re- 66 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
5
4 Scen 1 Scen 1 A 3 Scen 1 B Scen 1 C Scen 2 Scen 3 2 Fig. 4. Impact of the main Impact of trend, value 1–5 1 trends on the development of the Murmansk Area as sur- veyed in 2005 per respond- ent groups / scenarios. (Scale I Technolocal II Logistical flows III Globalisation IV Value based V Development of 1 = very small, 2 = small, 3 = Development development socio-economy of the population moderate, 4 = strong, 5 = Trend very strong.)
spondents is very small. Most attention should be the future of the value-based trends clearly seems paid to the reasons given for the opinions. to have the widest variation. In examining the strengthening of the trends by The deviation of the sub trends mainly follows the year 2025 on the main trend level, it seems the distribution of the main trends (Fig. 5). The de- that the main trend of the technological develop- viation can most clearly be seen in the responses ment has the smallest distribution. Concerning by the representatives of the existing clusters in the globalisation, the opinions are very near to each Murmansk panel and in the responses of the inde- other among the various respondent groups. The pendents in the Murmansk panel. However, the globalisation trend of scenario 1 A (representatives above mentioned responses are based on a single for the existing clusters in the Murmansk panel) is one or the responses of a very few which explains emphasised the most, but the response is based on the distribution. In spite of this fact, in the analysis a single response at this point. Concerning the that will follow special attention will be paid to the main trend of socio-economic development the argumentation of the responses from these distribution also is narrow, the responses of the so groups. called independent respondent group make an ex- The rise of the international oil market price is a ception but for the aforementioned group the re- central sub trend of the globalisation main trend sponse is based on a single opinion. The impact on which has an impact on the economical develop-
5
4 ue 1–5 Scen 1 Scen 1 A Scen 1 B 3 Scen 1 C Scen 2 Scen 3 Fig. 5. Strengthening of the 2 main trends that make an im- pact on the development of the Murmansk Area by the 1 year 2025 per respondent
Strengthening of the main trends,val group/scenario. (Scale 1 = decreases significantly, 2 = decreases slightly, 3 = re- I Technolocal II Logistical flows III Globalisation IV Value based V Development of mains unchanged, 4 = in- Development development socio-economy of the population creases slightly, 5 = increases Trend significantly.) FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 67
Fig. 6. The impact of SPT trends on the development of the cluster.
ment of Murmansk Oblast. The oil price has been (sub trend e.g. rise of oil price). Globalisation and rising steeply from the beginning of 2000 (British development of value-based trends (SPT IV) or the Petroleum 2005). Specialists explain that the rea- socio-economic development of the population son is the growth in the world economy, in which (SPT V) can have an decreasing effect on some China plays a central role, and the unstable situa- other cluster or part of it. In practise there are tion in the Middle East. trends which are supporting and counteracting the development of the same cluster. The total impact of the trends on the development of the clusters The impact of trends on the development of can vary between the groups of respondents. The clusters differences could in this case be explained by the interest of the groups of respondents to emphasise The trends or actually the driving forces behind certain driving force actors laying behind the them make an impact on the development of the trends. clusters according to the schematic model shown In Table 4the views of the participators in each in Fig. 6. Certain trends have an impact on certain panel are presented in order to describe howthe clusters. The impact of the trends can facilitate the various trends are making an impact on the differ- development of the cluster, measured with the ent clusters. Theanalysis is based on the answers turnover of an enterprise or with employment. The from the panelists. There the participators were development of some trends could be obstructing asked to choose, as far as the main trends were con- the development of certain clusters (e.g. the age- cerned, whichare the three most important clusters ing of the population). whose development the trends facilitate most. The figure is schematic and the SPT trends illus- Which clusters were then emphasised? When trate the acting SPT main trends. For example if we looking at this moment at the acting three main think that the transportation and logistical cluster trends by respondent groups, one can make the forms a growing cluster, following main trends following statement. According to the Murmansk could be picked out which most clearly support panel the trends have the biggest impact on the the growth of the cluster: STP I = the development clusters of transportation and logistical services as of technology (sub trend e.g. development of trans- well as mining and metal processing. portation technology). SPT II = logistical flows (e.g. According to the Moscow panel the trends act- the growth of oil transit), SPT III = globalisation ing at this moment give most support to the devel- 68 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
Table 4. The impact of the main trends on clusters per scenario or respondent group. The clusters which got most, second most and third most mentions are divided with semicolon (;) from each other. If the logistical development object has got only one mention it has been placed within brackets. Explanations: En = Energy, Min = Mining and metal processing, Log = Transportation and logistical services, Food = Food, Tou = Tourism, ICT = Information and communication technology, Wel = Welfare, Env = Environment, Saf = Safety.
Question 2.4 Which cluster development in Murmansk Oblast area is facilitated by the SPT trends the most? Choose for each trend the three most important clusters, the development of which are supported by the trend. SCENARIO SCEN 1SCEN 1 ASCEN 1 BSCEN 1 CSCEN 2SCEN 3 PANEL / Council Murmansk Murmansk Murmansk Murmansk Moscow panel International panel, all panel, panel, panel, panel respondents council 1, council 2, council 3, MAIN TREND representatives representatives independent /Sub trends of the existing of the rising respondents clusters clusters
clusters clusters clusters clusters clusters clusters
I Technological Log;En,ICT; En,Min,Log;ICT;. Log;ICT;En. Log;.;. En,Log;Min;. En;Min,Log;ICT. Development Min. II Logistical flows Log;Min;Wel. (Min,Log,Env;.;.) Log;Wel; (Min, (En,Min,Log;.;.) En,Min,Log; En,Log;Min;. ICT.) (Wel;.) III Globalisation Tou;Min;Log. Min;(En,Log, Tou;Min;. (Log,ICT;.;.) Tou, Log;. En;Log;Min. Tou;.) IV Value based Env;Tou;ICT, (Tou,ICT,Wel;.;.) Env;Tou;. (Tou,ICT,Wel, Food,Env,Saf;.;. ICT,Wel.;Env;. trends Wel. Env;.;.) V The socio- En;Log,Wel; Wel;(En,Log, Tou;.;. En;(Min,Log, En,Min,Log,Wel, Wel;Food;Min, economical Min,Tou,Env, Saf;.) Env;.) Env,Saf;.;. Log. development of Saf. the population The decision- Federal, Regional Federal, Regional, Federal, making in the Regional and and Federal. Regional, Local, Regional, Local, clusters International. Local. Federal. International.
opment of the clusters of transportation and logis- Murmansk panel. The impact of the trends on the tical services, then energy, and mining and metal energy clusters comes up, according to this analy- processing. In the future the strengthening trends sis, most clearly in council 1 of the Murmansk will also support the above clusters most clearly. panel, i.e., according to the opinion by representa- According to the international panel the trends tives of the existing clusters, as well as, according that are making the biggest impact at this moment to the opinion of the international panel and the support the clusters of transportation and logistical Moscow panel. The representatives of the rising services mining and metal processing as well as and independent clusters emphasise most clearly the development of the energy cluster. In the future the impact on the ITC as being the object of the the trends also support the same clusters most trends. clearly. As a conclusion, it can be stated that all panels Level of decision making in the clusters and councils share the opinion that the existing and future trends will have the biggest impact on Themembers in the panels evaluated the impor- the clusters of transportation and logistical servic- tance of the various decision-making levels in the es. Also mining and the industry related to metal development of the clusters. Thelevels of decision processing seem to form an important target for making were the local level, the regional level, the the impact of the trends with the exception of the federal level, and the international level. On each council 3, i.e., the group of independents of the level there could be decision makers as well from FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 69 the public as the enterprise level, of whichthe most In developing of the mining and metal process- important ones were tried also to be recognised. ing clusters, as a summary of the most important After all respondent groups and all nine clusters logistical development projects in the various pan- in the study were examined and compared, one els, the railway connections and harbours are the could draw the conclusion that decision-making most emphasised ones and are among the two on the federal and regional level is emphasised in most important objects of logistical development the development of the clusters. However, council in all respondent groups. 3 of the Murmansk panel (independent respond- The most important oil and gas fields in North- ents) and the Moscow panel emphasise the impor- west Russia, present and planned oil and gas pipes tance of the local level to some extent in addition as well as harbours are shown in the map (Fig. 7). to these. If the comparison is made cluster by clus- In the map the role of Murmansk Oblast is seen in ter it appears that on the federal level the decision- the energy transportation and export of the whole making is emphasised more strongly in energy Northwest Russia. Murmansk being a not frozen than in any of the other levels compared. On the Atlantic harbour which can be reached globally local level the development of especially the wel- from the rest of Europe and USA will play a central fare cluster as well as the food cluster and security role in the supply. seem to make a big impact. Allpanels emphasise an oil pipeline for the de- velopment of the energy cluster as belonging to Logistical development needs the twomost important projects and twopanels out of three chose the construction of an electricity Members in the panels evaluate the most impor- transfer net. According to the Murmansk panel the tant logistical development objects in each cluster. development of the electricity transfer network There were all together ten logistical development and the oil pipeline are the twomost important objects: railway connection and traffic, harbours projects for the development of the energy cluster. and harbour activities, roads and road transporta- The Moscow panel as well emphasises the elec- tion, oil pipe and maintenance services, gas pipe tricity transfer network followed by railway con- and maintenance services, electricity transfer lines, nections and traffic and oil pipeline as the most ICT networks and services, air traffic and services, important objects to be developed. The interna- and passenger traffic on road as well as border tional panel considers the oil pipeline for the first, crossing services (Table 5). and then the harbours and gas pipe as the most When those main trends that also make the important objects to be developed. strongest impact are taken into consideration and When it comes to the level of decision-making the clusters supported by the main trends, i.e. in logistics, the panels seem to share the same transportation and logistical services cluster, min- opinion about the development of the three cho- ing and metal processing cluster, and the energy sen clusters supported by the main trends. They cluster, as a summary for the transportation and consider the federal level and the regional level to logistical services cluster, that the answers from be the two most important levels of decision-mak- various groups as a whole railway connections ing. The importance of the local and international and traffic as well as the harbours got most of the level of decision-making in transportation and lo- mentions followed by road connections to devel- gistics is also stated in the Murmansk and the inter- op. national panels’ views. In developing the transportation and logistical services clusters the Murmansk panel is of the opinion that the most important object will be rail- Testing of explanatory theories way connections and harbours, roads and the pas- senger traffic on the roads coming next. According The material produced and analysed in the re- to the Moscow panel the railway connections and search can be contextualized with geographical ICT networks are the most important ones after the theories according to Fig. 8 and at the same time harbours. The international panel considers for the evaluate how well the theories function in the light first the harbours and the railway connections and of the material. According to the figure the driving traffic, and for the second the roads and ICT net- forces impact on the formation of the strong pro- works as the most important objects of develop- spective trends, so called SPT trends (e.g. the ment. growth of the world economy and the unstable 70 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
Table 5. Logistical development measures per cluster and per scenario and respondent group. The logistical objects of de- velopment which got most and second most mentions are divided with semicolon (;) from each other. If the logistical devel- opment object has got only one mention it has been placed within brackets.
Question 4.1 Which are the most important logistical development items in developing the clusters? Choose from each cluster the two most important logistical development items in order to create the cluster in such a way that you would prefer and consider possible.
SCENARIO SCEN 1SCEN 1 ASCEN 1 BSCEN 1 CSCEN 2SCEN 3
PANEL Murmansk- Murmansk panel Murmansk panel Murmansk Moscow panel International /council panel, all council1, council 2, panel panel answers representatives representatives council 3, of the existing of the rising independent clusters clusters respondents
CLUSTER Logistical Logistical Logistical Logistical Logistical Logistical development development development development development development item1 item item item item item
1 Energy Electr.;Oil pipe; Oil pipe; Electr.;Railway, (Oil pipe,Gas Electr.;Railway, Oil pipe; Railway,Ports, (Roads,Electr.). Ports;Gas pipe. pipe,Electr.;.) Oil pipe. Ports,Gas pipe. Gas pipe. 2 Mining and Railway,Ports;. Railway;(Ports,Oil Ports;Railway.(Railway, Railway;Ports, Railway;Ports, metal pipe,Gas pipe). Ports;.) Electr.. Roads. 3 Transportation Railway,Ports; Ports;(Railway). Railway,Roads, (Railway, Railway,ICT Ports;Railway; and logistical Roads,Pass traff.. Pass traff.;Ports. Ports;.) netw.;Ports. Roads, ICT services netw.. 4 Food (Railway,Ports, (ICT netw.). Railway,Ports, –(Pass traff., Ports,Roads; Roads,ICT netw., Roads,Border;. Border;.) Railway. Border:.) 5 ICT ICT netw.;Electr. (ICT ICT netw.;Ports. (ICT netw., ICT netw.;Electr.. ICT Border. netw.,Border;.) Border,.) netw.;Border; Electr.. 6 Tourism Air traffic; (Roads;.) Air traffic;Pass –Ports,Pass traff.; Pass traff.,Border; Roads,Pass traff.. traff.;Roads. Railway,Air traffic. Air traffic. 7 Welfare Oil pipe;Ports. (Railway;.) Oil pipe;Ports. (Ports,Oil Railway,Ports, Pass traff.;ICT pipe;.) Roads;Oil pipe, netw.. Gas pipe, Air traffic, Pass traff.. 8 Environment Oil pipe;Gas (Border;.) Oil pipe;Gas (Oil pipe;.) Oil pipe,Gas Oil pipe;Gas pipe. pipe. pipe; Railway, pipe. Ports,ICT netw.. 9 Safety Roads,Oil pipe, (Border;.) Roads;(Oil pipe, (Oil pipe;.) Railway;Ports, Pass traff.,Oil Border;. Gas pipe,Air Pass traff.. pipe; ICT netw.; traffic,Pass Ports,Gas pipe. traff.,Border)
1 Logistical developments items: Alternative measures (10 pcs): Railway connection and traffic, Harbours and harbours ac- tivities, Roads and road transportation, Oil pipe and maintenance services, Gas pipe and maintenance service, Electricity transfer lines, ICT networks and services, Air traffic and services, Passenger traffic on road, Border crossing services.
situation in the Middle East increase the oil price). Neil 1995; Hyttinen et al. 2002: 20–21; Rautio On the other hand strong trends create demand 2003: 60–61). Here I preliminarily discuss the ap- conditions and by reacting on these it is possible plicability of the theories on the development of on various acting levels to create the most suitable the Murmansk Oblast during 1992–2005. The ob- conditions for the development of the clusters. jective is to find the most explanatory theories for The most central regional theories have been a closer analyse. I make in my applicability evalu- collected by Hyttinen and Rautio (Tykkyläinen & ation special use of the Delphi panel evaluation of FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 71
Fig. 7. The main oil and gas pipe in the North West Rus- sia and plans brought up dur- ing the last years showing extension of the main pipe and development of the har- bour network. Reprinted from Tykkyläinen (2003a) with permission.
which SPT trends at this moment have the strong- ronment and the supply policy theory may explain est impact on the development of Murmansk Ob- development best, which is only getting an ”ex- last. plains much” index. Equilibrium seeking, technol- As a conclusion of my tentative analysis and in- ogy and innovation, global capitalism and transi- terpretation it can be stated that the following the- tion, globalisation and product cycles also reach ories give support to the development of Mur- almost to the same explanatory level. mansk Oblast during the last years moderately or The number of the theories can change in the much except the following theories: innovative future. Based on the interview material of the Del- milieu, regulationism, institutionalism and Keyne- phi panel it can be anticipated that the weight of sian application. The resources and physical envi- the globalisation trend would rise the most. There- 72 Yrjö Myllylä FENNIA 184: 1(2006)
Fig. 8. The research material in the article has been mod- elled according to the above figure. Later on the explana- tion of various theories of area development should be tested on the modelled mate- rial.
fore those theories, where the explanatory element Federal and regional levels are both important was based on the globalisation trend could explain decision-making levels for the development of the the future development still better. clusters and logistics. Naturally it depends on the development objects of the clusters and logistics on which level the particular emphasis is placed Conclusions on the decision-making. Based on the results the importance of the co-operation between the re- Strong prospective trends prepare the ground for gional and the federal level, and to some extent the economic environment in Murmansk Oblast. also international co-operation, is emphasised. The most important main trends prevailing at this The analysis gives some hints, how the trends moment are, according to the majority of the re- are felt to be acting depends on the interest group spondents, technological development, logistical that the respondent represents (Kuusi 1999: 193– flows, and globalisation. The respondents of the 206). In the future, the analysis scenarios should independent group of the Murmansk panel em- be created per respondent group by choosing phasise the globalisation trend, the value-based those trends which each respondent group empha- trends and trends of the socio-economical devel- sises as their choice for starting point and evalu- opment of the population. The international panel ates the causal relations acting on the trends and again considers the trends of technological devel- on the development of the clusters in the context opment, of globalisation, of the socio-economical of regional development theory. development of the population as the most impor- The explanation of the regional theories was tant trends at this moment. evaluated based on the implemented development These three most important trends seem accord- specially impacting the assessment of the special- ing to the panels to most clearly support the need ists. The resources and physical environment and of the development of transportation and logistical supply policy theories seems to be the most ex- services clusters. The mining and metal processing planatory ones. cluster seems to be the second in importance on the basis of the main trends according to all re- spondent groups except the group called the three ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS independent persons. The energy cluster is empha- sised in particular by the representatives of the ex- isting clusters in the Murmansk panel, the Interna- The author specialises in Delphi research and appli- cations and area foresight. This research work is part tional panel, and the Moscow panel. The inde- of the research project ”Does the Geography of Rus- pendent respondents of the international panel sian Northern Peripheries Really Change?”. This and Murmansk panel also emphasise the develop- project is administrated by the University of Joensuu ment of ICT and tourism clusters. and funded by the Academy of Finland (contact FENNIA 184: 1(2006) The futureofMurmansk Oblast assessed by three Delphi panels 73 number 208149). In this project there are researchers Malmberg A & P Maskell (2002). The elusive concept from Finland, Russia, Germany and Australia. The of localisation economies: towards a knowledge- project and this particular part of the project is being based theory of spatial clustering. Environment done in co-operation with the Barents Centre for So- and Planning A 34, 429–449. cial Research and Dr. Oleg Andreev, who is also pro- Murmansk region in figures (2004). State Committee fessor of the Baltic Institute for Ecology, Politics and of the Russian Federation on Statistics. Murmansk Law. The implementation of the research work is part Region Committee of the State Statistics. of the preparation of my doctoral thesis in human ge- Oldberg I (2000). Russia’s Western Border Regions ography, which is supervised by Professor Markku and Moscow: the roots of regionalism. In Oldberg Tykkyläinen. It is anticipated that the research project I & J Hedenskog (eds.). In dire straits: Russia’s will be completed within four years. The completion Western Regions between Moscow and the West, of the subproject is planned for 2007 when the doc- 11–53. Defence Research Establishment, Stock- toral dissertation will be defined. holm. Porter EM (1990). The competitive advantage of na- tions. 875 p. Free Press, New York. Rautio V (2003). The potential for community restruc- REFERENCES turing – mining towns in Pechenga. Kikimora Pub- lications A :9. 168 p. British Petroleum (2005). Statistical review of world Rautio V & O Andreev (2005). Social restructurisation energy 2005.