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Because of Population Growth (Figure 2) 34854 WORLD BANK WORKING PAPER NO. 69 Climate Variability and Water Public Disclosure Authorized Resources Degradation in Kenya Improving Water Resources Development and Management Hezron Mogaka Samuel Gichere Richard Davis Rafik Hirji Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized THE WORLD BANK WORLD BANK WORKING PAPER NO. 69 Climate Variability and Water Resources Degradation in Kenya Improving Water Resources Development and Management Hezron Mogaka Samuel Gichere Richard Davis Rafik Hirji THE WORLD BANK Washington, D.C. Copyright © 2006 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.A All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First Printing: December 2005 printed on recycled paper 1 2 3 4 5 07 06 05 World Bank Working Papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank’s work to the devel- opment community with the least possible delay. The manuscript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formally-edited texts. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the gov- ernments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank of the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant per- mission promptly to reproduce portions of the work. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, Tel: 978-750-8400, Fax: 978-750-4470, www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, Fax: 202-522-2422, email: [email protected]. ISBN-10: 0-8213-6517-7 ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6517-5 eISBN: 0-8213-6518-5 ISSN: 1726-5878 DOI: 10.1596/978-0-8213-6517-5 Cover photo: “Water Well, northern Kenya” by Curt Carnemark, World Bank. Hezron Mogaka, Samuel Gichere, and Richard Davis are Consultants to the Environment Department of the World Bank. Rafik Hirji is Senior Water Resources Specialist in the Environment Department of the World Bank. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Climate variability and water resources degradation in Kenya: improving water resources development and management/Hezron Mogaka ...[et al.]. p. cm.—(World Bank working paper; no. 69) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13: 978-0-8213-6517-5 ISBN-10: 0-8213-6517-7 1. Water resources development—Kenya. 2. Water-supply—Kenya—Management. 3. Climate changes—Economic aspects—Kenya. I. Mogaka, H. (Hezron) II. Series. HD1699.K4C65 2006 333.910096762—dc22 2005058108 Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations and Acronyms xi Executive Summary xiii 1 Introduction 1 2 Kenya’s Economy and Water Resources 7 3 The Physical Impacts of Rainfall Variability: Floods and Droughts 27 4 The Physical Impacts of Water Resources Degradation 43 5 Economic Impacts of Rainfall Variability and Water Resources Degradation 65 6 Conclusions and Recommendations 77 APPENDIXES A List of People Consulted 87 B Hydrologic Effects of Forest Clearance 91 C Methods and Data for Valuing Economic Losses 95 References 101 Map endplate LIST OF TABLES 2.1 Safe Yield from Water Resources by Major Drainage Basins in Kenya 9 2.2 Infrastructure Cost Estimates for Water Sector 13 2.3 Condition of Gauges for Measuring Flow into Lake Nakuru 15 2.4 Estimated Water Demand, 1990–2010 16 2.5 Estimates of Livestock Populations in Kenya 19 2.6 Major Crop Production in 1990 and Projected Production in 2010 20 iii iv Contents 2.7 Estimated Economic Loss from Livestock Deaths Due to 1999–2000 Drought Stress 21 2.8 Quantity and Value of Fish Landed, 1995–2001 23 3.1 Distribution of Rainfall in Kenya 28 3.2 Drought Incidence in Kenya, 1883–2001 29 3.3 Existing Water Dams/Pans and Boreholes and Deficit in Most-Affected Districts 31 3.4 Major Rehabilitation Projects in Response to El Niño Floods in Most-affected Areas 34 3.5 Flood Damage Costs to the Water Sector 35 3.6 The Physical Impacts of Floods and Droughts 41 4.1 Growth in Absolute Number of Abstraction Points in Three Rivers, Ewaso Nyiro North Basin, 1997–2002 46 4.2 Percentage of Unauthorized Abstractions for River Basins in the Northern Ewaso Nyiro Catchment, 1994–95 47 4.3 Depth of Lake Baringo 48 4.4 Economic Opportunities Lost Due to Water Overabstraction, 1999–2000 49 4.5 Main Economic Uses of the Water Hyacinth 62 4.6 Summary of Physical Impacts of Water Resources Degradation 63 5.1 Costs Arising from El Niño-induced Floods 68 5.2 Costs Arising from 1998–2000 La Niña Drought 70 5.3 Costs from Water Resource Degradation 73 LIST OF FIGURES 1 Trend of GDP and Population Growth Rates (1999–2000) xiv 2 Decreasing Storage for Domestic Water Supply in Kenya (1969–1999) xv 2.1 Actual Withdrawal and Safe Yield of Water 10 2.2 Estimated Water Demand 11 2.3 Decreasing Storage for Domestic Water Supply in Kenya (1969–1999) 12 2.4 Development Expenditure on Water Supplies and Related Services, 1994/5–2001/2 14 2.5 Principal Economic Sectors 16 2.6 Sources of Electric Power Used in Kenya 18 2.7 Sources of Electricity Generation, 1996–2000 18 3.1 Water Abstraction Rate in Upper Ewaso Nyiro North River 32 3.2 Changes in the Price of Maize in Kenyan Regions 37 3.3 Freshwater Natural Fish Production, 1994–2000 39 4.1 Trends in Analytical Services at Central Water Testing Laboratory, Nairobi 45 Contents v 4.2 Observed and Modeled Levels of Lake Naivasha Showing a Steady Decline in the Potential Water Level after 1984 46 4.3 Trends in Borehole Drilling in Ewaso Nyiro North Basin, 1930–2003 47 4.4 Expenditure in Forest Sector, Kenya 50 4.5 Extent of Forest Removal in Lake Nakuru Catchment endplate 4.6 Trends in Bed Occupancy in Coastal Beaches and Niarobi Area 55 4.7 Bed Occupancy for Eight Hotels along Malindi Beach 55 4.8 Drawdown of Water Table in a Private Well in Nairobi Area 56 4.9 Reduction in Water Hyacinth Density after Release of Bio-agent at Three Sites in Tanzanian Part of Lake Victoria 62 6.1 Percentage Change from Long-term Mean Rainfall Illustrating a Sequence of Floods and Droughts 78 LIST OF BOXES 1.1 Country Strategy on Integrated Water Resources Management: Key Issues 4 2.1 Major Programs for Groundwater Development 13 2.2 Declining Per Capita Commercial Energy Consumption 17 2.3 Consequences of Underpricing Water Supply 24 3.1 The Impact of Floods 36 4.1 Social Implications of Water Scarcity 48 4.2 Effects of Increased Sedimentation of the Sabaki River 54 6.1 International Costs of Water Resource Degradation and Climate Variability 79 Foreword his report—a flagship product of the Africa Water Resources Management Initiative T(AWRMI) prepared with the support of the Kenya Country Team, Mainstreaming Fund for the Environment, the Bank Netherlands Water Partnership Program,World Bank Institute and Environment Department, and Sida—is a critical step in the World Bank’s policy dialogue on water resources management reforms and investment planning being promoted by the Government of Kenya through the Ministry of Water and Irrigation (formerly the Ministry of Water Resources Management and Development). It represents a pioneering attempt by the AWRMI to focus on the economic implica- tions of water resource management in Kenya (and indeed in Africa), looking specifically at two of the most important water-related issues that make the economy and people of Kenya highly vulnerable—the effects of climate variability and the steady degradation of the nation’s water resources. In both areas, the report finds significant economic impacts. The El Niño-La Niña episode that occurred from 1997 to 2000 cost the country Ksh 290 billion, about 14 percent of GDP during the three year period. Given their regularity, over the long term, floods and droughts are estimated to cost the economy about Ksh 16 billion per annum (2.4 percent of GDP). This is a very serious drag on the country’s economic performance. Water resources degradation costs the country at least Ksh 3.3 billion (0.5 percent GDP) annually. The long term annual impact of nearly 2.9 percent of GDP from these two factors has been estimated con- servatively; the true cost is likely to be much greater. While it is not economically efficient to avoid all costs, many of them can be minimized by increased investment in water resource management and infrastructure and more effi- cient, accountable, and participatory management and operation of the water resource sector. The report thus provides a clear economic rationale for investing in improved water resources development and management in Kenya.
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