Six N.B. ridings that could win or lose the general election Telegraph-Journal (Print Edition)·Adam Huras CA|August 18, 2020·08:00am Section: A·Page: A5 They are the ridings that the experts believe will decide a New Brunswick provincial election.

Even without a full slate of candidates in place to analyze, seats currently held by all four parties inside the legislature appear poised to switch hands.

Whether they do, could decide the election.

Miramichi

It’s likely the riding where Liberal Leader will run.

People Alliance MLA handily beat incumbent veteran Liberal Bill Fraser in 2018, even though he had a key role in the Gallant cabinet.

“It’s actually a tough one to call,” Mount Allison University political scientist Mario Levesque said. “If you add in the Progressove Conservative vote to the People’s Alliance vote (in 2018), the margin of victory is two to one.

“Much may depend on how local people see him - (is he) one of their own or a CFAer?”

Shippagan-Lamèque-Miscou

Any chance of the Liberals forming government begins with stealing the only northern seat the Tories won in 2018.

Making things easier, the Progressive Conservatives lost it earlier this year.

Robert Gauvin resigned from cabinet and caucus, to sit as an independent. He’s also now considering a run under the Liberal banner, although not in that riding.

“What candidates run here will matter,” Roger Ouellette, political science professor at l’Université de Moncton. “But the Liberals have a huge head start.”

Memramcook-Tantramar

Green MLA won this riding by 11 votes in 2018.

It’s another riding that must turn Liberal if Team Vickers has any shot at government. Voting in a pandemic might help the Liberals here, as Mitton’s support from university students might not be there this time with the Mount Allison University campus running at a lower capacity.

“COVID will take a bite out of the Green vote,” Levesque said, referencing university town wins in both Sackville and . “As will the fact the Greens tend to abstain a lot from votes in the assembly, which I have heard people on the ground do not like.”

Moncton East

It’s hard to picture a Higgs majority government without at least one steal in the Moncton area.

The most likely candidate? The Tories came within 855 votes of winning Moncton East.

Monique LeBlanc is the two-time incumbent.

Ouellette points to the latest Narrative Research polling numbers that suggest nearly one- half of decided New Brunswick voters currently support the Progressive Conservatives, up from 39 per cent three months ago.

The Liberal percentage of decided voter support is consistent with last quarter, 30 per cent.

Ouellette said that voter support is concentrated among anglophones, meaning ridings with higher proportions of anglophone speakers have a greater percentage chance of voting for the Progressive Conservatives.

“The math says the Progressive Conservatives have a chance to win a few seats in Moncton,” Ouellette said.

Saint John Harbour

The Higgs Tories hold every seat in southern New Brunswick, except one.

That belongs to Liberal Gerry Lowe, who won it by 10 votes in 2018.

It’s also not exactly clear if Lowe will reoffer, after musing for months about a return to municipal politics.

“This is no problem. It’s going Conservative,” Ouellette said.

Fredericton North

Stephen Horsman holds the only Liberal seat in the capital region. He held onto it in 2018 by 261 votes.

“We have seen in the past how vote splits give us unlikely results,” said Tom Bateman, St. Thomas University political science professor.

“A vote split may produce a Tory victory in this coming round, as I’m hearing that the Greens are trying to target that riding.

“A Green candidate would probably subtract votes from the Liberals.”

The Greens first made inroads in New Brunswick across the bridge in Fredericton South, where leader is the incumbent.

Honourable mention: Southwest Miramichi-Bay du Vin

Progressive Conservative incumbent won the riding in 2018 by 35 votes.

It was People Alliance candidate Art O’Donnell who was the runner-up.

It’s one of the province’s largest geographical ridings, stretching from the outskirts of Fredericton all the way east to Escuminac.

“What is campaigning going to look like?” Bateman said. “This is going to be imponderable.”

Bateman questions whether candidates who were pushed over the top last time due to a strong ground game will be able to wage the same fight this time around.

Additionally, a pandemic is likely to impact voter turnout to some degree, with Bateman questioning who will stay at home and who would those voters typically back.

“Doesn’t the older demographic vote Conservative typically?” Bateman said.