Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy – The Lessons We’ve Learned2017 & Those We Still Have Yet To Learn Conference Meadowlands Conference Super StormSandy Sandy: Five Years Later October 2017 Gary Szatkowski Super [email protected] 609-320 -7205

National Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Personal plea

• If you are being asked to evacuate a coastal location by state and local officials, please do so. 2017 • If you are reluctant to evacuate, and you know someone who rode out the ‘62 storm on the barrier islands, ask them if they would do it again. • If you are still reluctant, think about your loved ones, think about the emergency responders who will be unable to reach youConference when you make the panicked phone call to be rescued, think about the rescue/recovery teams who will rescue you if you are injured or recover your remains if Sandyyou do not survive. • Sandy is an extremely dangerous storm. There will be major property damage, injuries are probably unavoidable, but the goal is zero fatalities. Storm • If you think the storm is over-hyped and exaggerated, please err on the side of caution. You can call me up on Friday (contact information is at the end of this briefing) and yell Superat me all you want. • I will listen to your concerns and comments, but I will tell you in advance, I will be very happy that you are alive & well, no matter how much you yell at me. • Thanks for listening. • Gary Szatkowski – National Weather Service Mount Holly

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly More Recently (mid-March), I’m This Guy

• Philly Inquirer: Snow: Former local weather service boss fires back at Christie • NJ.com: Meteorologist fires back at Christie after 'underperformer' 2017 • Fox News: Christie Trades Barbs With National Weather Service Over Blizzard Forecast • Governor Christie, displeased with theConference forecast says: “I’ve had my fill after the last seven and half years of the National Weather Service, to tell you the truth” • I replied: It's a great disappointmentSandy to hear the Governor speak that way about the National Weather Service. The Mount Holly office is a highly regarded office with theStorm NWS, and deserves better treatment than that. And considering the outstanding forecast service by the NWS during Sandy, and the disastrousSuper way NJ mishandled using that information with the NJ Transit fiasco, I'd expect a more responsible perspective from my governor.

• Conclusion: I’m pretty bad at this retirement thing. An Example of our Challenge

• A technically accurate warning 2017 may not come close to being Conference effective. Sandy

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Super Sandy - Lessons We’ve Learned

• During Sandy, we really needed storm surge maps. – We didn’t have them. We had lots of2017 other maps, but not forecast-based storm surge maps. – Some examples of the problemConference from an NWS briefing package Sandy

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Super Inland flooding threat

• Map on the left is forecast total rainfall over next 5 days. Rain is expected to move2017 from south to north starting Sun night, with the heaviest rain Monday. Conference• Flash flooding is extremely likely. Sandy • Major river flooding is likely. Storm • Record river flooding is possible in the areas of Super heaviest rain.

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Current status of

• Sandy is currently a Category I hurricane. Sandy is expected2017 to remain at or near hurricane strength for as it transitions into an extremely intense Conferencenor’easter. • Its forecast track poses a Sandy direct threat to our region. • It is forecast to still have Storm wind gusts exceeding 75 mph as it approaches our Super region. • This is a very dangerous scenario.

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly And here is our storm surge map

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Super Coastal flooding tools • Major coastal flooding is expected based on the current track forecast. Record coastal flooding is likely. • A 12 to 15 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical2017 tide) is possible in the Raritan Bay. This would produce record coastal flooding. • A 10 to 12 foot storm tide is Conferencepossible along the Atlantic Coast & the Delaware Bay. This would Sandy result in record coastal flooding in many locations. Storm • A 3 to 5 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) is possible in the Chesapeake Bay based on Super where the storm center comes ashore. This would produce moderate coastal flooding.

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Now, we have this. Much better.

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Super Another Lesson Learned

• My federal career spanned 38 years. Obviously lots of changes in the weather2017 enterprise over that time span. • Let’s discuss one topic. Conference

• Back in the good olSandy’ days, when a partner/customer was critical of a weather Storm forecast/warning, there was one thing you could almostSuper always depend on. – It actually was a pretty bad forecast/warning. Times Change

• But these days, all bets are off. Partners/customers will do surprisingly2017 inappropriate things with very accurate forecasts/warnings priorConference to and during an event, and then willSandy say extraordinary things

about the forecastStorm after an event.

• This was painfullySuper apparent with regards to Sandy. 2017

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National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly 2017

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• In extreme events,Storm experience fails. • NJ Transit put equipment valued $385 million in a location thatSuper did not flood during Hurricane Floyd & Hurricane Irene • Kearny, NJ – 9 feet above MSL vs. storm tide 12-15 feet

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly USACE map 2010

• Light gray shading 2017 floods with Category I Conference storm surge – Sandy

6 to 9 feet. Storm

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National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Storm surge forecast from NHC issued 1100 AM Sunday October 28th • Maximum surge forecast for Monday night 2017

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National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Are we learning?

• Philadelphia Inquirer 12/04/2012 - Statement by NJ Transit Director – “…projections from the NWS forecast at the time the system shutdown called for only a 10 to 20 percent chance of flooding at the [Kearny] railyards.” – If you follow @GarySzatkowski on Twitter, you saw2017 my reaction. • Statement by ex-NJ Transit chief of staff in opinion piece explaining why NJ Transit should not be criticized. • NorthJersey.com 12/04/2012 opinionConference piece – “Weather forecasting” not an “exact science” • NJ.com 12/05/2012 opinionSandy piece – Sandy “weather forecast was wrong.” • Why is this being said?Storm • NJ Transit has to testify before US Senate on 12/06/2012 on loss of rail cars • NJ Transit has toSuper testify before NJ Assembly on 12/10/2012 on loss of rail cars. – NJ Transit testimony stressed listening & use of NWS information in the run-up to Sandy. – NJ Transit railyards which flooded were considered ‘not in flood zone’.

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Coastal flooding tools • Major coastal flooding is expected based on the current track forecast. Record coastal flooding is likely. • A 12 to 15 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical2017 tide) is possible in the Raritan Bay. This would produce record coastal flooding. • A 10 to 12 foot storm tide is Conferencepossible along the Atlantic Coast & the Delaware Bay. This would Sandy result in record coastal flooding in many locations. Storm • A 3 to 5 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) is possible in the Chesapeake Bay based on Super where the storm center comes ashore. This would produce moderate coastal flooding.

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Port Authority NY/NJ • “No one believed there could be a 13-foot storm surge ever in this port and there was,” said retired Rear Admiral Rick Larrabee, director of Port Commerce for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey. “I talked to people who have worked here2017 for 30 years who said they never feared for their lives but they did that night.” • What they actually got was aboutConference an 8 to 10 foot storm surge. • Forecast surge on SaturdaySandy – 4 to 8 feet for Mon • Forecast surge onStorm Sunday – 6 to 11 feet on Mon • The price for this decision-making: Super – Larrabee said the storm surge enveloped 14,000 new cars on the docks on the New Jersey side of the Hudson, incapacitated 40 percent of the 50 gargantuan cargo cranes that stand several stories high and took out 2,500 trucks critical to moving freight off the docks. National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly USACE map 2010

• Light gray shading floods with 2017 Category I storm surge – 6 to 10 feet. Conference

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National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly Coastal flooding tools • Major coastal flooding is expected based on the current track forecast. Record coastal flooding is likely. • A 12 to 15 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical2017 tide) is possible in the Raritan Bay. This would produce record coastal flooding. • A 10 to 12 foot storm tide is Conferencepossible along the Atlantic Coast & the Delaware Bay. This would Sandy result in record coastal flooding in many locations. Storm • A 3 to 5 foot storm tide (surge + astronomical tide) is possible in the Chesapeake Bay based on Super where the storm center comes ashore. This would produce moderate coastal flooding.

National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly What’s the point?

• Weather forecasts are getting better and better. Inaccurate criticism of a high impact2017 forecast causes more credibility damage than ever before. • What do I expect of our partners?Conference It’s simple, really. If you’re goingSandy to be critical of a weather forecast, actually pick one that is of poor quality. Storm • Sandy was a very high quality forecast, setting Super some benchmarks in terms of accuracy and timing. A really bad choice to be critical of. From the Land of Social Science

• I was on one of the online weather discussion groups several months ago, and the2017 topic of ‘social science’ came up. • The theme quickly turnedConference to “We have all

these social scientistsSandy looking at what meteorologists do. When are they going to finally provideStorm some useful information?” • I refrainedSuper from critical commentary at the time (It can happen) From the Land of Social Science

• But usable information is coming out, and not being fully leveraged by the operational2017 weather community. • Let’s discuss. Conference Sandy

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Super Nurture Nature Center is a non-profit organization in Easton, PA, that has been working to educate the public about flooding. NNC has undertaken several projects with NOAA and NWS, including its “Focus on Floods” education campaign, to understand and share information about how the public perceives and acts upon flood risk.2017

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Super What Is the Issue? NWS flood forecast and warning tools offer tremendous amounts of timely, accurate data.

But: People often don’t respond the way they should to protect life and property. 2017 SO: What else is needed to deal with uncertain situations?

Conference FLOOD RISK AND UNCERTAINTY PROJECT

Sandy“ What we need now is to package and communicate Storm weather warning information so that people understand it Super and take the right action with the time they are given.”

Gary Szatkowski, Meteorologist in Charge of the NWS Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly NJ WFO Three Studies: Asking the Users

• Riverine Study: Easton, PA and Lambertville, NJ (2012) “Flood Risk and Uncertainty: Assessing and Improving NWS Flood Forecast and Warning Tools” - Office of Oceanic and 2017 Atmospheric Research, Office of Weather and Air Quality • Coastal Study: Ocean and Monmouth Counties, NJ (2014) Conference “They Had the Facts, Why Didn’t They Act?: Understanding and Improving Public Response to NWS Coastal Flood Forecasts” - NOAA Sea Grant and NJ Sea Grant Consortium Sandy • HEFS Study: JeffersonStorm County, WV and Frederick County, MDSuper (2016) “Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making NWS Ensemble Forecasts work for multiple audiences” - 2016, National Weather Service

A Scenario-Based Approach

• Focus groups 2017 • Surveys • Interviews Conference

Participants provide feedback on Sandy • Timing and Information Source Storm • Graphic clarity • How they share informationSuper • How the products motivate action

What We Learned

DESIGN MATTERS.2017

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Super River Levels Matter HYDROGRAPH is a highly preferred product

2017 • High results for visual clarity, usefulness and Conference location specificity. Sandy

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Use Color, and Use It Carefully

COLOR in graphics can help or hurt people’s understanding of risk. 2017 Participants discussed:

• Positive use of color Conference

• Confusing use of colorSandy

• Lack of color/font variations Storm

Super Location Details

GEOGRAPHIC 2017 SPECIFICITY helps understanding of risk: Use hyper-local info when possible Conference

Sandy • Lack of location detail = lack of motivationStorm to act

Super Emergency Briefings: A Tool for Community Preparedness

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Sandy Briefings: Inclusion of a “PersonalStorm Plea” was highly motivational Briefings can convey tone, and prioritize risk Briefings shouldSuper be reserved for high-impact events NOAA is the authoritative source for information, but residents expect and want to receive weather information from local municipal officials and EMS BRIEFINGS CAN HELP CONVEY UNCERTAINTY

Emergency Briefings: Clear, direct summaries Briefings: Focus on delivering most critical information right up front Use of color to emphasize important information Uncertainty in the forecast, but certainty in direction about how to take action 2017

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Super My social science takeaways

• For synoptic systems (nor’easters, hurricanes, winter , river flooding) 2017 – People are ready to start making serious decisions three days out Conference – People want to be told what actions they should be taking Sandy – People want toStorm hear it from a hyper-local perspectiveSuper – Be very thoughtful in how you use color to convey your message Final thoughts

• We’ll continue to add technical excellence to our weather forecasts. 2017 • The heavier lift lies in effective communication. Conference • Now: Great technically skilled doctors Sandy • Future?: Great technically skilled doctors with an outstandingStorm bedside manner. Super Socialscience.Focusonfloods.org

Includes :

• research bibliography on social science related to flooding

• project information2017 on first two studies

• educational materials Conference • final reports and papers on first two studies Sandy

Storm Coming Soon: Super • New page for HEFS study