May 08, 2012 16:41 BST Prime Minister Ed?

If a week is a long time in politics, the halcyon days of February 2012 must seem like a different era for David Cameron and the Coalition. Back then, Jeremy Hunt was being tipped for promotion, economists were predicting the economy would grow in Q1 and only fans of had heard of the word omnishambles. The Conservatives were still polling in the high 30s and all the pressure was on , a leader whom much of the commentariat saw as no threat to the Prime Minister and who was supposedly making a negligible impact on the electorate.

In February, I penned a blog that sought to challenge conventional wisdom on the prospects for Ed and the Labour party. I wasn’t right on all counts, but against the expectations of many, the political landscape today looks radically different to the picture back in February.

Below is a quick check-list of the predictions that I made three months ago that have come to pass. This is not to gloat(!), but to serve as a reminder of how much has changed:

- Labour duly won back Birmingham in the local elections, one of 32 councils they wrested control of on 3rd May. The party advanced in England, Scotland & Wales, and with more than 800 gains they surpassed the test that had been set for them by a number of independent election gurus. Importantly, the eight point lead in popular share of the vote backed up a series of post-Budget opinion polls that showed a widening Labour advantage.

- The economy contracted by 0.2% in Q1, meaning the UK was condemned to a double-dip recession. This ran contrary to many City forecasts and followed one of the most poorly received Budgets in years. - David Cameron’s personal ratings hit an all time low in April. There has been no equivalent surge in Ed Miliband’s scores, but few in February would have predicted that Cameron’s ratings would drop on a scale only matched by Gordon Brown in 2007.

Of course, I didn’t get everything right. The NHS Bill made the statue book and Ken Livingstone went down to a narrow defeat in . That said, it is indisputable that the media narrative will have to change. No longer can Ed & the Labour party be so quickly dismissed; they will be treated as real contenders for government and will likely be given more airtime and closer scrutiny as a result.

All of the above brings new challenges as well as opportunities for the Labour Opposition. There is a manifest difference from advancing in local elections and winning a General Election - just ask Neil Kinnock.

Without wanting to play Nostradamus again, I will sign off with a final thought. On Thursday, Labour secured 38% of the vote compared to 31% for the Conservatives. In order to win a majority of one at the next General Election (even on new boundaries), the Conservatives will need to lead Labour by seven points across the country. If you think that is likely, David Cameron should be favourite to be our next Prime Minister. If not, it is time to start taking the prospect of Prime Minister Ed Miliband much more seriously.

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