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Nuclear - - - on Based     Outline The Future of the Nuclear Cycle. An Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2010. Study, MIT An Cycle.Interdisciplinary Fuel Nuclear the of Future The 2009 update. 2003 and its Study, MIT . An Interdisciplinary Nuclear of Future The 981 ISBN Publishing. Scientific World Das Economics Reactors Nuclear Supplyand Chain nucleus Unstable Reactions: Nuclear See , A. and T. and A. , http://web.mit.edu/nuclearpower/ . 2004. Introduction to Nuclear and Physics. Second edition by edition Second Physics. Particle and Nuclear to Introduction 2004. .Ferbel - 238- 744- 7. 7. → Stable nucleus

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metin /~   of Uraniumof with 144neutrons). of It does not split equallyweight. by The nucleus of U When U Followingpossible reactionsU for are . . U -235 -235, theyunstableresult in U upon a collusion; they sort ofoff. bouncethey collusion; 236 upona Fast reactors. nuclear can potentiallyyieldU moving . Fasterneutrons (moreenergy) kinetic U Even when U a slow A - U 236 Fission (Splitting) Reaction(Splitting)A U-236Fission 𝑈𝑈 238 is more stable and is not often disturbed by slow - -236 𝛼𝛼 92 235 moving neutrons moving arenot by caught the nucleus of decay -moving + 𝑈𝑈 92 23 -236 has 92protons and 144neutrons. - 238 is in the same environment with U with environmentsame the in 238 is 6 neutron ⟹ 𝑛𝑛 0 1 - -4 239 but they are not used not in are they239 but ⟹ β 𝐻𝐻 Lanthanum is caught by thecaught nucleus byis 𝐻𝐻 2 4 β U Praseodymium -236 Cerium -236 -144 Neodymium β 𝑈𝑈 β -235: (another 𝐵𝐵 -144 92 23 -144 Cerium 5 14 6 6 4 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 -144 -144 57 144 58 + 144 -140 - 235, 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 U 𝑁𝑁 Krypton-89 - 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 59 β 144 60 144 Rubidium 58 140 β β A fissionexample. Yttrium 𝐾𝐾 -89 36 89 -89 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 -89 37 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 89 + 38 89 𝑌𝑌 3 neutron 39 89 Source: http://hyperphysics.phySource: Barium 𝑛𝑛 1 0 Neutron Neutronproton becomesby 𝐾𝐾 36 releasing an an releasing 89 Krypton ⇒ - astr.gsu.edu + electron Proton 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 37 89 + 𝑒𝑒

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metin /~ E.g., for E.g., for from are reactions Decay Other U C B U U 𝐵𝐵𝐵𝐵 𝐾𝐾 -236 -236 𝑟𝑟 36 5 144 89 6 and 𝑈𝑈 𝑈𝑈 decay with pictures go to pictures with decay 92 92 23 23 𝐾𝐾 Helium 6 6 𝑟𝑟 36 90 𝛼𝛼 ⟹ ⟹ decays go decay http://periodictable.com/isotopes/P.M -4 4β 236 Fission Reactions: B and C -236 FissionReactions:B and Xenon-140 Barium β 𝐻𝐻 Caesiums-140 𝐻𝐻 2 4 β to to Barium http:// -144 Lanthanum β http:// previous page Details on the 𝑋𝑋 periodictable.com/Isotopes/036.89 β 𝐵𝐵 𝑒𝑒 Cerium -140 Cerium 54 140 periodictable.com/Isotopes/056.144/index.p.full.html 5 14 6 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 4 𝐵𝐵 55 140 -140 + -140 -140 + 56 140 Strontium 𝐿𝐿𝐿𝐿 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 β Krypton-90 𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 57 140 β 58 , 140 58 Yttrium Rubidium P is the number of and M is the ( 140 β β Strontium -94 β 2β Yttrium β -94 𝐾𝐾 𝑆𝑆 Zirconium -90 𝑟𝑟 38 36 94 𝑌𝑌 90 and 39 -90 -94 94 𝑅𝑅𝑅𝑅 -90 http:// + 37 𝑆𝑆𝑆𝑆 𝑍𝑍 90 𝑍𝑍 + 38 40 𝑌𝑌 90 2 94 -90 39 90 2 periodictable.com/Isotopes/036.90 neutron neutron -94 𝑍𝑍 𝑍𝑍 40 90 𝑀𝑀𝑀𝑀 𝑛𝑛 42 94 . 1 0 𝑛𝑛 1 0 protons+neutrons . ) of a nucleus.

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metin /~       Observations from 3 Fission Reactions A, B, C If the fission reaction releases 2neutrons always,the number of neutronsgrow exponentially over time(): The numberof neutrons released in Ex: If reactions arehappeningB,CA, with equal probability, manyhow neutrons arereleased onaverage? Reaction releasesA neutrons, 3 reaction releasesB 2neutronsand reaction releasesC 2neutrons. number of neutrons. Except for 1final product fissionin the 3 reactions all finalB,C,A, productshave even numberprotons of and even Not – – all of U 235 Neu tron Average of 2.33. 2,3is Average Only - Yttrium 0,1 is hit by an electronan. hit byis 𝑌𝑌 39 89 1,2 1,1 has odd number of protons and yet it has a stable nucleusodd numberhasa. protons of it has yetand U -236 Spent fuel still has 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,1 fission is found experimentallyfission2.4.about is be to U 235 3,1 3,4 3,3 3,2 3,1 3,4 3,3 3,2 but at a lower concentration.a but at a reaction is 8,…., is reaction Number of the 1 neutrons after topic covered in Probability.in coveredtopic neutrons can be as studied aProcess, Branching a random. general The number of neutronsby releasedis a reaction in fter the 2 the fter nd stage reaction is 4, after the third stage stage third the after 4, is reaction stage …., after the …., after Then the growth of number ofof numberthe growth Then 𝑛𝑛 th st stage reaction is is reaction stage stage reaction is is reaction stage 2, 2 𝑛𝑛 .

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metin /~       What causes a fission can be that nuclear forces in U capture neutronof an which disturbsthe shape of the nucleus, sayfrom spherical ellipsoidal.to an atomsand fission is applicable to large ; theaffects size the (binding) nuclear energy. Stable atomsbecan fused toobtain energy,this fusion processthe oppositeis of fission.Fusion applicableis to small 240,Pu242, 241, 243 U has much moreU neutronU hits a When 238 goes throughgoes nuclear-238 reactions (PlutoniumBreeding)P becomes and U -238 𝑈𝑈 92 Breeding Process 238 + neutron -238, it sometimesbecan captured bythe nucleus of U are unstable isotopesare 𝑛𝑛 0 1 + ⟹ -238 than U β U -239 β 𝑈𝑈 -235. Plutonium 92 23 cannuclearused as be fuel. ⟹ 9 Plutonium -239 Plutonium Plutonium Plutonium 236 and U -236 and 𝑁𝑁𝑁𝑁 -239 93 239 -239 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 -240 -241 -242 94 239 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 239 are overwhelmed-239 are electricalby forcesafter the 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 94 239 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 94 240 94 241 94 242 + neutron + neutron + neutron fromone end of the ellipsoidalto the other. ineffective are Short -rangedforces nuclear + neutron -239, Pu-240, Pu-241, Pu-242, Pu-243. -238, whichthen becomes U 𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛 0 1 𝑛𝑛 0 1 𝑛𝑛 0 1 ⟹ 0 1 ⟹ ⟹ ⟹ Plutonium Plutonium Plutonium Plutonium -240 -241 -242 -243 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 -239. 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 94 2 𝑃𝑃𝑃𝑃 40 94 2 94 2 41 42 94 2 43

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metin /~           Uranium is 5,000,000 times moreefficient than . 1 gramU A 1 gramof Uranium T If nuclearA reactor has 1,200 MWpower and gives 438,000 235 gram of U 235 gramof Single U single Uraniumof a Fission      he reactor uses 20kilograms enrichedof fuel to generate 1,200   – – typicalhousehold US U -235 Energy from U Energy 1 gram gram 1 U of gram1 1000 1 MWd j = 1 Watt 1 It requires 20 or of 0.438 tons U 438,000 gramsburning Itrequires 1 mega electron volt 1 volt mega electron 1volt. to (ground)from 0volts 1 electron bymovinggained energy the is volt 1 electron 235 yields-235 atom3.44*10 -235/day suffices727 (=1000/1.375) for is onlyis 6%nuclear of fuel, the reactor needs U kWh / -235 of of = coal releases 20*10 releases coal 10 -235 has 1 mole of atoms, that is 6.02*10 oules per second - 𝑈𝑈 235 gives 6 (=7,300/365) month33 kWh = /day= 1.375 92 235 ∗ -235 releases 24 + ∗ neutron 1.6*10 spends 60 10 ∗ 11 11 -235 atomyieldsabout 215mega electron volts. 60 . kilograms of nuclear fuelkilogramsof per nuclear day. - 13 3 joules joules ≈ 𝑛𝑛 joules. joules so it is a very small amount of energy.of amount asmall is very it so joules ≈ 0 1 1000 kilo -11 10 ⟹ = joules. 11 0 𝑈𝑈 . joules 864 92 23 -235 6 Watt ∗ 10 ⟹ (=2,070* 11 kWd hour households. - 𝐵𝐵 1 kilogram joules. joules. 235 in a year. a235 in 𝑎𝑎 5,000,000= 7.3 56 144 / + (kWh) per month1.375/1000 or day = 1.375/1000= day 23 10 (=0.438/0.06) + atoms.235 gram releases 2,070*10 (=1200*365) (=1200*365) 𝑛𝑛 10 10 𝐾𝐾 /235) 𝑟𝑟 of enrichedU fuel of 1 0 36 89 MWd 10 1 gramU + 3 + 3 or Watt 1Mega day( 11 Fission /( 20*10 . neutrons tons MWd 1 gramU 1 gramU MWd -235 of of 3 ). ). over an entire entire year. an over fuel (U fuel 235 and U 238 U-235 and 𝑛𝑛 / ⟹ 0 1 day. day. -235 -235 + 727 US houses for a day a houses for US727 -235 2,070*10 ≈ ⟹ …. MWd MWd 500,000coal gram and 10 10 per per ). U 10 10 … joules. = -238) joules/mole day day . 60 + 1 MWd per per MWd year

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metin /~ Uranium MiningUranium and Supply Cycle

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metin /~ last? supplies uranium world's the will long According toHow Total Total usage Current Reserves will last 15,900,000/68,000=233 years. Reserves will last 5,400,000/68,000=80 years. by S. Fetter,byS. Scientific Jan 26,2009. American, reserves to be discovered discovered be to reserves known Kazakhstan12%; has9%; 9%; Russia Australia has 31% of known reserves; reserves; known of 31% has Australia reserves reserves of of Uraniumore is 68,000 ton/year. Namibia5%; Brazil 5%; Niger 5%. UraniumPlenty Reservesare is 5,400,000is ton. is 10,500,000 ton.is Source: www.world cost. cost. US more requires reserves investment. at alow are recoverable reserves Australian - nuclear.org/info/inf75.html.

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metin /~ Underground Uranium Mine, Australia Mine, Uranium Underground Uranium Mines Open Pit Uranium Mine, Namibia Mine, Uranium Pit Open Uranium Oxides: UO Oxides: Uranium Uranium 2 or UO or 3 UraniumYellowcake (powder)

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metin /~ Uranium SupplyCycle ChainUranium and

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metin /~    U- so properties chemical the same have Isotopes stable contains ore Uranium 7 -   is affected less by centrifugal forces in a centrifuge. in a centrifuge. forces by centrifugal less affected is through an appropriatemembrane,fastermovesand they 8% Enriching: Increasing theIncreasingEnriching: Concentration 235 Eunice,Mexico. New Centrifugal Separation Paducah, Kentucky.

Caskets used in reactor. nuclear a in use to cannot be separated by chemicalby separated be cannot U- centrifugal separation is 238. U lighter and smallerand lighter - 235 concentration needs to be increased to to increased be to needs concentration 235 of Uranium 235 Isotope of Uranium , e.g., US Enrichment Cooperation plant in 0.7205% U , e.g., Louisiana, e.g., Energy Services plant in than than - U- 235 238; isotope reactions. reactions. U- 235 and the rest is is rest the and goes

Centrifugal Separation U-235 is collected from the center; U-238 from periphery of the centrifuge. Centrifugal separation consumes less energy. Gaseous Diffusion

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metin /~    Fabrication: From Enriched Gas to Fuel Rods toFabrication:From EnrichedFuelGas Enriched UF in solid form solid in Example: Weapongrade uranium musthave 90% U 0.007205 – In4 passes: 0.007205turn U Example: Assumesinglethat a pass of the centrifuge doubles the U Fabricationin facilities Lynchburg, Virginia; Erwin,Tennessee;Columbia,Carolina; S. Wilmington, Carolina N. In 3 more passes: 0.11528 – In3 more   Shipping in uranium rods areshippedto nuclear reactors; spent fuel is stored at reactor sites inUSA. chain,supplyenrichedshipped the from enrichment UraniumInis to facilities fabrication facilities; Packaged into the environment.into the 6  gas gas If is suspectedis at temperature -235 intoU zircaloy 0.01441 – 023056 – (95% rises -235 enriched 0.08more? orby Fukushima 0.02882 – too much(beyond 100 Zirconium+other 0.46112 – 0.05764 – and silicon carbideis and UF Chemical: 0.92224. 6 to UO to 0.11528. 2 metals) isrelatively safe; it stops radioactive from escaping -235,passes?many how o ), C), pellets to rodspellets to Caution: Every pass may not double the concentration.double the not Caution:may pass Every powder to zircaloy Physical: considered as -235 concentration,requiredmany howpasses to can react with and degrade. Such degradation zircaloy an alternativean packaging material. Package: Package: Rods in Rods tubes Each rod12 feet long Up 64- to in a rod assembly. ain as packaged rods. packaged as 5- 9 inch square.9 inch 264 rods .

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metin /~ Fresh and Used FuelTransport Fresh FuelFresh

Shock Absorbing Cap Fuel rods

Shock Absorbing Cap Used Fuel Transport

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metin /~ Nuclear Reactors

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metin /~ Fuel rods All of operational Reactor Cycle 1 Cycle Water Inside Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) Reactor Water Pressurized Reactor US reactors are either PWR or BWR. or PWReither are reactors US Vessel (BWR) Reactor Water Boiling (speed brake)cooledare bywater. and in closed Distilled H Distilled Control Rods - loops 2 O Cycle 2 Cycle Trans. Water They are being decommissioned.areThey high pressure 5 high Built in 1960s and 1970s. and 1960s Built in at high temperatureVapor high at - 300 They are both light water reactors (LWR)using regular water as - - (50 Pascal Mega 10 500 100 o C BWR is older technology.is BWR atm and ) vs likely with 2 cycles 2 with likely moreis Contamination Cycle 3 Cycle Cooling Water

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metin /~ 10 miles radius around a reactor pathwayzone. Take I south westto go Glen Rose. Comanche Peaks are 100 100 are Peaks Comanche 50 milesradius is ingestion In case of a contamination:In caseof a is plume (smoke) exposure miles south west of UTof west south miles zone. zone. ingestion pathwayingestion zone. 35 E south and US 67 to south and US-35 E Dallas campusDallas Reactors Close to Dallas are in Glen Rose Do not breath in plume in Do breath not Comanche Peak 1and Comanche Peak 2 exposure zone. Do not eat/drink in in Do eat/drink not . Comanche Peaks are owned by owned are Peaks Comanche Peakcommissioned 1 in1990 generates 1209 megawatt (MW) of power. Peakcommissioned 2 in 1993 generates 1158 MW. They are both pressurized water reactors. water reactors. They are both pressurized Ft. WorthFt. Dallas and Luminant , Energy, Future Holdings. for coolingwater for Squaw Creek Reservoir

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metin /~  Enrichment factor    Burn uprate 20 kilograms per dayof enriched fuel fuel containing radioactive5% Uranium.That 10 kg of is, ore is needed to obtain kg of1 fuel. For example,enrichment factor becan 10 for converting ore containing 0.7% radioactive Uranium toUranium cubicmeter (Uranium) per year.Uranium densityhas of 19tons per cubicmetre ComanchePeakhas 1200 and 1 40 MW In Theoretically relatedpercentagethe to atomsofhaving nuclearthe reaction.reactor. measurehardBut, to in a    practice, it ismeasuredin terms of MWd of enriched fuel per year suffice. suffice. year per fuel enriched of hasTaurus 20.1 cubicfeet 2014 Ford 60 achieve can reactors advanced More For     is the amount of of amount the is example,Burn up rateabout is =500 Operatingplant with60 1200 MWrate of burn up a yearIn360 a ofdays, weburn 10,800 kg of enriched fuel. obtain 1,200To O Burn uprate and Enrichmentfactor   . perating is the unit of natural ore needed to manufacture 1 unit of enriched fuel. 1 enriched unit of manufactureto needed ore of natural unit the is See Table 7A.2 7A.2 Table See litre urn 7,200 kg of enrichedBurnof 7,200 kg fuel 20 kgof enriched fuel day.Burn ina 10,800=30*360 30=1,200/40 1,200=1,200*1 =113 (dry)gallons=17.6 a 1,200 MW (=power)1,200 MWa generatesday plant for 1,200 a MWd Recall the previous examples: 1kilogram MWd energy on p.176of “ with a obtained from ⇒ of trunk . You cannot ship rods in a Sedan’s trunk but perhaps1 - but Sedan’s rods atrunk in ship You volume. cannotof trunk MWd Burn up rate of 60 50 ” Cycle Fuel Nuclear of the Future The 40 /kg MWd MWd cubicfeet MWd /kg, it (=GWd in a year a in /kg /kg /kg. requires about 10 tons requiresabout 10 for once 1 ton enriched of fuel /ton). reactor, weburn 30 kgof enriched fuelday. in a . MWd Previousexample 1,200reactor had MW consuming -throughfuel cycle. MWd /kg. , so 10 tons of Uranium10 tonsof fitsso into half,a of of enriched fuel U /kg. . (=365*30 kg) . (=energy). 235 and U 238 U-235 and of enrichedof fuel truck delivery = 60 MWd

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metin /~ Assumingburn uprate 40MWd of Plutonium ismoredangerous than Uranium. The latter is found in nature but the formeris produced artificially in the lab and through cycle. Storage/repository cost can be less in Plutonium cycle, but how much less is hard quantify. hard is to how less but muchcycle, Plutonium be in can less cost Storage/repository cycle. through - once the of times4 is recycle Plutonium with producing of Cost recycles. Plutonium are Below has notbeen foundon earth yet.Unlike Uranium, Plutonium emitsrays/particles that cannot go through the skin but are Fuel Cycles Fuel Reserves in millions of tons millions Reservesin Witha target of 1000 GW (= 833 * 1200 MW)globally by the midcenturywith 60 Comanche Peak 1: 1: Peak Comanche for Currently muchmore harmful within the body.Its higher energycausecan mutations and more Uranium - once are Above 55,500 tons/year Uranium Conversion, Enrichment, Fabrication : through cycles common in the USA. Plutonium can also be used as fuel. fuel. as used be can also the in USA. Plutoniumcommon cycles through 100 tons/year - Once Conversion, Uranium Enrichment, Fabrication Fresh UraniumFuel /kg and enrichment factor of 10,of factorenrichmentand /kg through Mixed FreshUranium Mixed fuel fabrication Conversion, Enrichment, Fabrication Plutonium Fuel 5,550 tons/year Fuel 10 tons/year and Separated Plutonium # 3 in Fukushima# 3in Fuel Reactor, Light Water Daiichi plant Light Water 1000 GW Plutonium Recycle Reactors e.g., Light Water 1200 MW in view of computationson previous page Reactor 5550=833*(40/60)*10 More active 5,550 tons/year Spent fuel Reprocessing Spent fuel Less active 10 tons/year Spent fuel Spent fuel choromosom MWd Repository Repository anomalies. /kg plants. plants. /kg Repository

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metin /~ 375 GWpowers 7.5 billion such lamps. incandescentconsumesAn lamp50 Watt. the most . nuclear mostthe building also countries three These mostthe China, Russia and India India and Russia China, power. nuclear mostthe generate also countries three These the Japan and US, France 375*10 375 about GWwas capacity = nuclear On Dec 31, global 2010, the Nuclear most number of reactors of number most 9 Watt. number of reactors. of number Reactors have have are . building

IAEA is International Agency .

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Source: IAEA Annual Report 2010. Page

metin /~ Economics of Nuclear Power

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metin /~   The price of Uranium Oxide (U Oxide Uranium of price The There is plenty of Uranium in the earth. see www.cmegroup.com/trading/metals/other/uranium_quotes_globex.html Source: www.uxc.com Economics: Cost ofUraniumEconomics: Ore Cost of Uranium ore is not too critical; less than 1 cent/kWh in all scenarios. in all 1 than cent/kWhless ore too not critical; is of Cost Uranium

Table A-5.E.2 Source: The Future of nuclear Power $52.15 per pound is close to $130 per kg. Ore price in $/kg 200 130 60 3 O 8 ) is $52.15 per pound in Mar 2012; 2012; Mar poundin per $52.15 is ) Electricity in cents/kWh Electricity Cost of Uranium in Uraniumof Cost 0.737 0.479 0.221 Feb19, 2014 $35/pound $35/pound 13 $47/pound $47/pound Nov ,2014 14 Feb10, 2016 15 $34/pound $34/pound 16

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metin /~ 7 - Once Combined Combined 8 5 2 throughUranium Cycle 1 4 3 C ycle ycle G as as Cost Comparison ContextCost Comparison T urbine More equity More return on equity Comanche Peak 1 1 Peak Comanche costs 2.4Billion

Source: The Future of Nuclear Power study later in transformation module. slightlyassumedhereis 9000 betterBtu/kWh thanshall ~ we reciprocalefficiency=output/input. of 6400-7200 BTU/kWh rates:Input (BTU)/OutputHeat 8. (kWh).the is This expensiveless thanis fuel lowscenarioGas cost 2012. 7. in details. Coal6. ismore expensive now; coalsee slides for more of return on equity. Nuclear5. plants need moreequity financing and higher rate 4. Capacity factor is utilization. Nuclear3. plants take longer to construct. O&M2.cost isfor operating and maintaining. 1. Overnight cost is cost of building/equipment. 6

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metin /~ 8. 6-78. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. Due to higher risks and uncertainties, financing cannot be done by relying relying by done be cannot financing reactor nuclear uncertainties, and risks higher to Due Utilization plants Nuclear cost O&M The same Billion. is $3.4 MWcapacity 1700 with plant power nuclear a building Cost of have evolved. evolved. have on debt. muchtoo consumption drops. down when shut be to have may and lot a is used energy cents/kWh. 0.2 say is little, O&M on effect the down, and goup prices Uranium Billion. $0.85 only plant is gas while Billion $2.21 costs plant coal capacity The uncertainty surrounding the licensing/regulations of nuclear plants inflate the costs. costs. the inflate plants nuclear of licensing/regulations the surrounding uncertainty The the Smallerplant. nuclear of of cost 1/13 is the This $0.25 Billion. around 500 NGCC MWcosts as such MW.500 sizes smaller in be can built NGCC plants power plants. power nuclear for capacity high not extraordinarily is 1700 MW Price and heat rates for the analysis come from early 2000s. Markets and technology technology and Markets 2000s. early fromcome analysis the rates for heat and Price initial investmentinitial This explains the international growth of nuclear energy. nuclear of growth international the explains This plants. power nuclear into for investing capital of cost the reduce to companies want help to may Governments reactors. nuclear building for companies over advantage an have authority regulatory having the and capital moreto access having Governments for nuclear plants is 1.5 cents per kWh including the fuel cost. Although Although cost. fuel the including kWh per cents is 1.5 plants nuclear for of nuclear power plants are generally high, except for France where nuclear nuclear where for France except high, generally are plants power nuclear of Discussion oftheDiscussion Context is longer but can perhaps be reduced by 1 year. year. by 1 reduced be perhaps can but is longer time construction ⇒ the smaller the risk & risk the smallerthe larger the set of investors. investors. of set the larger

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metin /~ Source: The Future of nuclear Power Cents per kWh per Cents Levelized Nuclear, Coal or Gas Cost ofElectricity:      cheapscenario. gas -to head is and options dioxide, carbon is a If there now. happening is which scenario, gas the cheap for except gas, and coal with competes nuclear others, the to equalized If happen. to unlikely is which scenario gas expensive the in gas a with competes nuclear If recentthe years. in prices gas by cheaper reinforced been has leastgenerate risky way to electricity. This seems to be the cheapest expensive years, 40 25 and For – and and reduced is nuclear for capital of cost costsor construction enough. not but considered; is of lifetimeyears the gap when closes Nuclear slightly 40 . carbon tax of $50 per ton of ton $50 per tax of carbon nuclear beats every other other every beats nuclear nuclear mostis the nuclear head with gas gas with -head time can be reduced, in the the in and the the and

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metin /~    The titled New of report Power Nuclear EconomicsFrom(2005): WNA Association) Nuclear (World Further Discussion on Nuclear ReactorCosts Further onNuclear Discussion Nuclear Nuclear O plant power M& costs account for 20% of LCOE. fuel. as gas or coal burning through produced electricity the that of than nuclear through produced electricity of cost ofthe portion smaller fora accounts cost Fuel CCGTs. 20% for is percentage corresponding The plant. nuclear new of a (LCOE) electricity levelizedof the 60% foraround accounts interest) accrued (including capital Cost of If loan interest rates drop, rates interest loan If » 20% of the LCOE whereas for CCGTs, it is typically 75%.” 75%.” typically is it CCGTs, for LCOE whereas the of 20% around only for account management) fuel spent (including plants new nuclear for costs “Fuel 100% 50% If gas cost of capital drops and Nuclear plants are cheaper than Gas plants. Gas than cheaper are plants drops and Nuclear capital of cost Nuclear LCOE (fuel) prices drop, Gas plants are cheaper. cheaper. are plants Gas drop, prices (fuel) Both of these are happening now!! happening are these of Both Cost of capital of Cost (Overnight) Cost fuel of Cost of O&M of Cost CCGT LCOE cost of cost

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metin /~ Commissioning and contingency costs are high in USA. This includes cost of commissioning labor, labor, of cost commissioning high USA. in are This costs includes and contingency Commissioning Source: Reduction of Capital Costs of Nuclear Plants by OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (2000) Costs Further onOvernight Discussion reassembling, reinstallation, and and reinstallation, reassembling, other reworks. repair, of cost includes cost Contingency operation. commercial the until utilities and other gas fuel, energy, of cost electrical costs), bydirect covered (not and equipment tools materials, Cz Mex UK Fr USA Ge France? partstaxes/ repairing /insurance/ in of sparecosts or cost no indirect Why accounting and contracting. breakdowndependsCost on PWR 1200 MW PWR PWR 1380 MW PWR Ge 1300 MW PWR American : USA ALWR 1450 MW PWR Fr: UK: BWR 650MW Mex 1000 MW VVER Cz : Czech Temelin : French N4 French Germany KONVOI Germany : United Kingdom Sizewell KingdomUnited Mexico Laguna Verde Mexico Laguna - B

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metin /~ Reducing CapitalCost Elimination of Overnight Cost Overnight CANDU 6 ( 6 CANDU ACR-700 Modularization; ScheduleReduction Standardization ComponentSimplification, Elimination, Optimization Turbine GeneratorBalanceand Reactor Size Reduction MIT study has $2000 per kWh of overnight (capital) cost and 60 months construction time. construction months 60 and cost overnight (capital) of kWh per $2000 has MIT study To reduce these: – – – – – – Qinshan Improvedproject management Open (reactor liner Prefabrication and shield walls) parts/equipment of Standardization/Modularization rods) fuel the of size core, on the limitations (technical reactors larger Build site single a in reactors multipleBuild » » Computerizedproject managementscheduling: / Reductionpaperwork/documentation in Workin parallel and 3shifts dayper - top (roof)constructioncoupled with heavy Phase III) Phase (D in CANDU) in (D Cost $/kWh Cost 1,640 1000 -120 -190 -190 -50 -90 & Construction Time Open Civil constructionreactorbuilding of 6 CANDU Advanced technology Modularization ACR-700 Construction TimeConstruction Source: Source: The (ACR) CANDU Reactor Advanced - lift cranes lift Presented at http://www.anes2002.org/Presented -top installation tools Months

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metin /~      Storage: Proliferation: Safety: semi the (recycling) passing than beneficial morepass is first atthe fuel the burning of efficiency Increasing construction. plant nuclear new for program Incentive – – – – – – – - Yuccaprojectshelved 2009 startedDOE in and is another initiative toidentifystorageconsensus.of sitea application to Nuclear Regulatory Commission butNevada vetoed this; Congress overwrote the veto. Yucca Mountain, Nevada wasidentified in 2008 as a potential waste storage area. DOEsubmitted a license fromgeneratorswastepromisedcould startingtake not. DOE 1999but to MillionNuclear FundWaste year.per accumulated by$24 Billion 2014; but partiallyotherspent projects. on chargedgeneratorsDOE $1/MWh 1983 Congress’s NuclearPolicy:Waste DOEhandles waste,Generators paythis service.for (melt in the failure Insurance of case operational of risk High plants. new perceived nuclear building spent fuel multiple times in the light water reactors. water light the in times multiplefuel spent Basedon“Funding UBSUtilitiesCallConference Electric titledfor withoutWaste Nuclearhostingplan” a Jay » » » » » Recommendations for Fuel CycleRecommendationsfor Fuel Avoid recycling fuel for now. now. for fuel recycling Avoid Somebody/somewhere must accept storage facility. storage accept must Somebody/somewhere law firm Pillsbury, Shaw Winthrop, Feband Pittman, 10, 2014. acceptance of nuclear power plants in those towns. French presidententhusiastwhoGaullean was allegedlyde tagged government servicesto thetownssome in Germangovernment decidesdecommission to nuclear plants 2022. by FukushimaDaiichi nuclear plant meltand -down in March2011 and afterwards. Long termpower purchase contracts to ensure stable and sizable demand. Highinvestment. fixedof cost  Better distinction between reactor between Better distinction Loan guaranteesLoan fromgovernments? since the 1980s. For ComanchePeak1, that $1,200is, per hour and about $10 - grade and weapon and grade - down). - grade . grade Silberg , from the ,

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utdallas edu 28 Page

metin /~ . . reactor.inserted intothe arerods still solid arerods Used 1 Every Dry storage: Used fuel is stored in a steel cylindricalsteel page.nextconcrete; containerthicka stored see housed in in is fuelstorage: Dry Used Wetstorage: A water pool is maintained above the stored used fuels; see below. - 2 years,used fuel rods (the oldest, ~1/3 inthe reactor) arecooled & compact termsbut decayedweight.in of & transferred while in the assembly.New

Source: Safe and Secure: Managing Used Nuclear Fuel. Published by NEI (Nuclear Energy Institute). .

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metin /~ Enrchmnt Urenco in NM in   Plant Two companies currently storing low level radioactive level low storing currently Two companies and universities laboratories by hospitals, created is waste radioactive Low level – – – – Specialists)in TX (WasteWSC Control WSC appliedWSC Nuclearto Regulatory Commission a 40,000build in 2016 to ton spent fuel storage facility EnergySolutions EnergySolutions Waste » » Dry Radioactive Waste Storage RadioactiveWasteDry For For Justice competition Departmentpost-acquisition points lack of to Control Specialists details watch watch details http:// wanted to acquirewantedto $367 for WCS millionJustice Departmentby in2016butsued https:// www.energysolutions.com http:// www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxK7BIhbZpI www.wcstexas.com , Three Three Lincoln Centre, 5430 LBJ Freeway,5430 LBJCentre, Lincoln 1700Dallas,Ste. TX 75240 UrencoEnrichment Plant inNM 360 miles west of UTDcampus. NextMexico toNew border & WSC’sStorageDry facilityis

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metin /~        project the about Uncertainty residents to some risks someto residents the exposing despite society the benefit can projects The projects these with associated high risk perceive Residents landfills storage, fuel nuclear plant, power nuclear as such projects oppose Residents In Not NIMBY:     NIMBY NIMBY problem for Nuclear Facilities Non them evaluate or cannot details the trust not does or details, project the not observe Host does permitting before facilities of type design, exact have not does Proposer      WestTexas lowly radioactive waste storage MountainYuccaradioactive highly storage waste Swissnuclear storage waste Sinop, northern Turkey,nuclearplantpower - Non location project atthe Residents Host: of the project Builder/owner Proposer: r uncertaintyforcing commitmentsand through contracts struggles to develop mechanismsto overcome the trust issue between the proposer and the host removingby host    esorts to monetaryincentives proposer,host by rebates,giventax to as direct such paymentsresidentsto - Is the Is project beneficial to mycommunity in particular? I donot want tobear the risks and drawbacks. the Is project really beneficial for the societyat large? Attemptingdesirable,beneficial,projectsafe,residentsis convince the that the job -creator host: government State, federal host: M y BackYard https . :// www.nagra.ch/en “Nuclear f rom the roof of a stadium during a gameduring astadium of the roof rom -less ” banner hungbyprotesters Türkiye ”

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metin /~  1993 Swiss survey questions in verbatim for a nuclear waste repository project project repository waste for a nuclear in verbatim questions survey 1993 Swiss – – – exploratory proposition proposition or doyoureject this proposition community even repositoryyourcommunity. in In hometownFederal. experts examineproposition,this and The The community with repositoryyourcommunity. in hometownFederal. experts examinethis proposition, and exploratory drilling for your decision: 3: There 2: 1 : Suppose » » Suppose compensation is (b) If somuchmoneyis offered, the repository mustbe very dangerous . (a) I demand a higher compensation. are manyarereasons why that the Nationalthat the ? that the Nationalthat the drilling,repository proposesbuild the to 5,000 francs per yearandperson. per Your family will though compensation , proposes tobuild repositorythe for low financed allby taxpayers inSwitzerland. In Host Surveys Host Cooperative for Cooperative for Moreover, the one does a townhall is offered.is Pleaseindicate if not support the constructionsupportnot ? meeting, the Storage of Nuclear the Storage of Nuclear parliament decides to for low do youaccept this the federalthe parliament decides the federalthe parliament decides - - and midradioactive-level in waste and midradioactive-level in waste a townhall compensate the following Wasteafter completing), (NAGRA the Waste (NAGRA), after of a of thus receivefrancs xxx year. per proposition or repository in meeting, all residents reasons wereimportant do youaccept do you reject this one's own to build to build completing of the host of your your the the this

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metin /~ empirical analysis Source: StatisticalAnalysis ofSurvey Results Frey,B. S. and F. of motivation crowding of motivation Oberholzer - Gee (1997). GeeThe cost ofincentives: price An - out. out. Amer. Econ. Rev. 87 (4), 746- 755.     Whatother leversdo proposers have? either. help not does compensation proponents.Increasing the not turnopponents theprojectof to does compensation monetaryOffering Non factors: Significant            - ….? ….? Risk evaluation and reduction Project uncertainty (High)Compensation signals (high) risk insignificant,is level too. Compensationineffective, is income Age, sex, income, political orientation quality of supportnucleartechnology, for home ownership, economic impact, i significant factors: significant ndividualestimate risk citing procedure.

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metin /~ Summary     Economics Reactors Nuclear Supplyand Chain Unstable Reactions: Nuclear nucleus → Stable nucleus

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metin /~     The shale gas boom makes it hard for new reactors to compete.to new reactors for it hard makes gas boom shale The Luminant Scana years. 35 last the in permitsuch first The (NRC) to issued license an expansion Commission Regulatory Nuclear falling behind : as behind falling – – – – – – – Expansion/Contraction The permit is still being considered by NRC; byNRC; check considered being still is permitThe page. next the on is Reactor) Water Pressurized Advanced US on the APWR of More (US version by Mitsubishi. PWR designed have advanced will Reactors capacity. have 1700 MW to is reactor Each for asked permitthe After ( project expansion The by owned is Plant Vogtle is to build 2 more AP 1000 reactors in its Summer Plant, South Carolina. South Plant, Summer its in reactors AP 1000 more2 build to is » » » » » » www.expandcomanchepeak.com Consideringdown: shut Shut down: Duke Energy These numbersare muchhigher than CANDUnumbers.ACR Westinghousereactors1000 designs.Both are AP To cost $14billion and Mitsubishi applied (in 2007) for a permit for two more reactors in Glen Rose. Glen in reactors moretwo for permit a for 2007) (in applied Mitsubishi and Plant on the border of Georgia & South Carolina; 30 miles Southeast of Georgia. of Augusta, Southeast 30 miles Carolina; South & Georgia of border on the Plant Southern Company . But increasedBut .$730 million by 2014. inJan, Vogtle Dominion Resources’ Kewauneein Wisconsin; $8.33 B loan guarantee from the Department of Energy of Departmentthe from guarantee loan B $8.33 ’s Crystal River in Florida; Nuclear Power 3 and 4) couldbegin in 2016 andestimated is is removed bytheendof2015 . in 15 of 2014-15 USAas Edison InternationalSan ’s www.expandcomanchepeak.com I n n 2015, some arereactors existing Vogtle Entergy Plant on Feb 9, 2012.9, on FebPlant ’s VermontYankee Onofre in California. but got $6.5 B. .

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metin /~ Nuclear Reactor Expansion Source: http://www.mnesSource: - us.com/htm/usapwrdesign.htm

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metin /~ Installation of structural support (CA05 forModule) of structural Installation  The moduleis hassteel and weighsreinforced 180,000 pounds. Southern reactors 3 & 4are built byWestinghouse – – – 2017 Update on Southern2017 Updateon and Some delays & costs due to design changes designto costs due& delaysSome AP1000 is prefab submodule-moduleis prefab AP1000 system Reactors are AP1000designs Toshiba is owned byWestinghouse » » » Company’s reactors currently built in China reactors currently& UK. at Vogtle tightlynot fit Modules do tightly fit Modules must saves cost manufacturing Modular Construction Construction behind schedule and over budget Vogtle > 3 yrs Plant expansion Vogtle & other Reactor 3. Reactor

Source: Crooks, E., K. Inagaki. 2017. Toshiba brought to its knees by two US nuclear plants. FT Feb 16 issue. for(CA04 Module) vessel cavityof reactor Installation The moduleis 27 Scana Buys constructor Stone &Stone Buys Websterconstructor ft 3: Toshiba3: tall, 21 tall, expedite constructionexpedite ft wide and weighs 64,000 pounds. eeds to control & controlto needs Reactors Vogtle Reactor 4. Reactor There are rumors of Toshiba shutting down Southern and

Scana expansions by declaring bankruptcy in USA. .

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Modular construction to save costs, unfitting parts, buying Page

metin suppliers to exert control on quality and delivery time is a /~ familiar story from Boeing 787 Dreamliner manufacturing.