UNU/IAS Working Paper No. 96
Exploring the Sustainable Development Strategy in Lhasa District, Tibet
Lifeng Li
December 2001 CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION ...... 1
2. PRED in LHASA DISTRICT ...... 2
2.1 Physical Conditions and Natural Resources ...... 2 2.1.1 Landscape ...... 2 2.1.2 Climate ...... 3 2.1.3 Land Resources ...... 4 2.1.4 Water Resource ...... 7 2.1.5 Other Resources ...... 7 2.2 Population Change ...... 8 2.2.1 Population Growth ...... 8 2.2.2 Improvement of Population Quality ...... 10 2.3 Socioeconomic Change and Development ...... 11 2.3.1 Socioeconomic Transformation ...... 11 2.3.2 Economic Growth ...... 12 2.3.3 Evolution of Industrial Structure ...... 19 2.3.4 Social Development ...... 22 2.4 Interactions among PRED ...... 22 2.4.1 Population and Resource ...... 23 2.4.2 Population and Development ...... 23 2.4.3 Development and Resources ...... 25 2.4.4 Environment and Development ...... 27
3. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY ...... 27
3.1 Integration and Coordination of Socioeconomic Development and Environmental Management ...... 27 3.2 Shifting from Industrialization to Integrated Agricultural Industrialization ...... 28 3.3 Coordinated Development of Crop Production and Animal Husbandry ...... 29 3.4 Accelerating Development of Animal Husbandry ...... 30 3.5 Controlling Population Growth ...... 30
4. CONCLUSION ...... 31
ACKNOWLEGEMENTS ...... 31
REFERENCES ...... 32
i ii List of Tables Table 1: Land Cover and Land Use in Lhasa District…………………………………9 Table 2: Agricultural Investment Structure……………………………………………39
List of Figures Figure 1: Theoretical Framework of the Paper…………………………………………3 Figure 2: Mean Annual Precipitation and Mean Air Temperature in Lhasa District…5 Figure 3: Land Use Structure in Lhasa District (1992)………………………………7 Figure 4: Population Growth in Lhasa District (1952-78)…………………………11 Figure 5: Population Growth in Lhasa District (1979-97)…………………………11 Figure 6: Spatial Differences of Population Density in Lhasa District (1952, 1997)…13 Figure 7: Value of Industrial Output in Lhasa District (1966-96) …………………17 Figure 8: Value of Agricultural Output in Lhasa District (1952-96)………………18 Figure 9: Crop Production in Lhasa District (1952-97) ……………………………20 Figure 10: Productivity of Different Crops in Lhasa District…………………………21 Figure 11: Change of Cropping Patterns in Lhasa District…………………………22 Figure 12: Livestock Production in Lhasa District …………………………………25 Figure 13 Ratio of Agricultural Output Value to Industrial Output Value in Lhasa District……………………………………………………………………27 Figure 14: Contributions of Agriculture and Industry to GDP ……… ……… ……27 Figure 15: Evolution of Agricultural Structure in Lhasa District……………………28 Figure 16: Changes of Arable Land and its Area Per Capita in Lhasa District………31 Figure 17: Food Productivity and Availability in Lhasa District ……………………32 Figure 18: Relationships between Population and Development in Lhasa District…34 Figure 19: Government Financial Expenditure of Lhasa District……………………38
iii ABSTRACT
Sustainable Development has raised global concerns and is regarded as one of the hottest research topics in the world especially after the UNCED Congress of 1992 in Rio. It covers so many different dimensions, thus its connotation always changes in different context. This paper tries to grasp its unique connotation for Lhasa District and put forward some new ideas on regional sustainable development in the district.
Lhasa District, located in the center of south Tibet, is the most developed district in the whole Tibet. Based on the analyses on the environment conditions, natural resources, population changes, socioeconomic development, and their interaction, this paper argues that: 1) Economic development in Lhasa District, especially agriculture, is restricted heavily by the prevailing environmental conditions and climate characters, which are determined by its high elevation. Development in the future should emphasize the integration and coordination of economic development and environmental management; 2) Population will keep a high growth rate in the next 30 years, and will be doubled in the year of 2040. Population pressure in urban area is much higher than that in rural areas. To decrease population pressure in Lhasa City and promote the urbanization for local people, certain immigration policies should be carried out. Meanwhile, family planning should also be encouraged; 3) Due to marginal location, small local demands, and low education level of people, a rational industrialization strategy should stressed on the development of light industry; 4) The most advantageous resource in Lhasa District is grassland. But with sever overgrazing, as well as lack of manure and fertilizers, grassland degradation is extensive. To accelerate the development of animal husbandry, countermeasures to quicken the development of market system and transportation should be taken in the future. 1. INTRODUCTION
Sustainable development, put forward in World Conservation Strategy (IUCN, 1980), and Our Common Future (WCED, 1987), has raised global concerns and is regarded as one of the hottest research topics in the world especially after UNCED Congress of 1992 in Rio. As it covers so many different dimensions, its connotation always changes in different context. This paper, tries to grasp the connotation of sustainability in Lhasa District, and put forward some new ideas on the regional development in the district.
Tibetan Plateau is a very unique region in the world. With an average elevation of more than 4,000 meters above sea level (masl), it is the highest plateau on the earth (H.X. Yang, 1983). It is called “the Third Pole” of the earth and “the Roof of the world” for its awful height and large area (Ruddiman et al., 1989; Prell et al., 1992; H.L. Sun, 1998). Because of this, it is one of the most sensitive regions affecting the global climatic and environmental change. In this sense it is a very important region for the study on global change. Abundant in wild plant and animal resources, it is also a unique region with rich genetic resources, biodiversity and ecosystems in the world (Li, 1994). Due to the geological movements, Tibetan Plateau has also gestated abundant mineral resources. Like other regions in China, Tibetan Plateau has been undergoing dramatic changes since the start of economic reforms and the adoption of “open-door” policy. As the political, socioeconomic and cultural center of Tibet and with higher population density compared to other districts in Tibet, Lhasa District is the most developed area; meanwhile, it is confronted with great population pressure. So its development will directly affect the sustainability of Tibetan Plateau as a whole.
Physical conditions are the bases for regional development, and the regional status is the consequence of its past development. Thus the paper starts from the analysis on regional environment and natural resources, its historical changes and development, including demographic changes and socioeconomic development. This is to answer "WHAT" the region was and is. Then, an effort is made to know "WHY" these changes happened, and if the tendency is not as expected, "HOW" to change it, and "WHO", government (local or central), collectives or companies, or householders and individuals, should be responsible for the changes? This so-called knowledge-based research method (OECD, 1996) is logically rational in regional studies and adapted in this research.
Based on this idea, this paper will start the analysis from regional environmental conditions, natural resources, population change, socioeconomic change or development, to find out the advantageous resources in Lhasa District, the tendencies of these changes; then using the
1 PRED theoretical framework (Population-Resource-Environment-Development), it analyzes the interactions among population change, resource exploitation, and socioeconomic development. The unfavorable factors are identified. A sustainable development strategy is put forward which might coordinate properly the relationships among PRED.
The data used in this research are mainly official statistical data, land resource investigation data, census data and TM data (Planning Committee of Lhasa, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, 1980-1998; Bureau of Land Management, 1992; Census Office, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1982, 1990). Statistical analysis is used in the quantitative analysis and forecasting on population change, industrial development. RS & GIS software is used in the demographic and industrial spatial analysis.
Figure 1: Theoretical Framework of the Paper
WHAT Environment
WHY Population Development Resources
HOW
WHO
2. PRED IN LHASA DISTRICT
2.1 Physical Conditions and Natural Resources
Located in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region and in the center of south Tibet, Lhasa District lies between E 89º45´ to E 93º26´ in longitudes and N 29º08´ to N 31º15´ in latitudes, and covers an area of 29,518 km2. It is one of the seven districts of the Tibetan Autonomous Region. In 1998, in addition to Lhasa City, it covered seven counties including Dagze county, Lhunzhub county, Maizho K. G. county, Diolung D. Q. county, Damxung county, Quxu county, and Nyemo county.
2.1.1 Landscape
Lhasa District is a highland area on the Tibetan Plateau, and its average altitude exceeds 4,000 masl. The area below 4,000 masl covers only 9.4 per cent of the total region, and the areas with elevation of 4,000 - 5,000 masl, 5,000 - 6,000 masl, and higher than 6,000 masl, occupy 50.9, 38.5, and 1.2 per cent of the whole area respectively. Most part of the district 2 is drained by the drainage system of the Lhasa River. The elevation of the landform declines from north to south, and its south area is deeply dissected by river and streams. The Lhasa River originates in the northern border of the district (where lie the Nianqing Tanggula Mountains with several summits over 7,000 masl), flows along a geological fold-fault system and joins the Yalu Zangbu River in the south at an altitude of 3,580 masl. The landform of the upper reaches of the Lhasa River mainly consists of high peaks with glaciers, gently- sloped piedmonts, and wide-ranged basin. The landform in the middle reaches (from Lhunzhub to Maizho) of the Lhasa River is deeply dissected and most valleys are V-shaped. Several old alluvial terraces (but very narrow) remain on the steep slopes of the valley. In the lower reaches of the Lhasa River, broader valleys, both along the main river and along its tributaries, are distributed and alluvial plains, extending from six to eight kilometers in width exist. Old plateau surfaces, dispersed by dissected valleys, remain separately on the ridges of the Lhasa Valley.
2.1.2 Climate
The climate in Lhasa District is semi-arid and temperate (R.Z. Zhang et al. 1982), dominated by a highland monsoon pattern.
1) Air Temperature According to the records of several climate stations, the mean annual temperature ranges between 1.3ºC (Damxung) to 8.1ºC (Quxu), decreasing from north to south (Figure 1). The mean temperature changes between 10.7 to 15.5ºC in the hottest month (June) and -10.2 to -2.3ºC accordingly in the coldest month (January). Moreover, the isotherms parallel to the woof, with small change caused by the high mountain. Another main feature of temperature is that in the spring it rises very quick and early, but decreases very late and quickly in the autumn.
2) Precipitation The mean annual precipitation in Lhasa District varies from 348.9 to 620.8mm. Because the main water vapor comes from the east valley, the precipitation decreases gradually from east to west (Figure 2). The annual evaporation is about 660-1,268mm, and gradually decrease from southwest to northeast similar to the change of air temperature. Considering the precipitation and evaporation comprehensively, the humidity varies from 0.3 to 0.7 in this area. Damxung county and Maizho K. G. county belong to semi-humid area, and the other counties belong to semi-dry area. There are two seasons annually, the dry season and the wet season. The dry season begins in June and ends in the late September, and the wet season lasts from October to May in the next year. The differences between dry and wet 3 season are distinct clearly. In the wet season, the precipitation is about 311.5 to 346.6 mm, accounting for 80-90 per cent of annual precipitation. Especially in July and August, the precipitation can reach to 205-346mm in some years.
Except the horizontal change, the climate in this area is also characterized by vertical differences caused by the enormous variation in elevation between high ridges and valleys. According to former studies, it is recognized that the mean annual temperature decreases 0.57ºC for every increase of 100m in elevation (Y.X. Gao et al. 1984), and the mean annual precipitation increases by 15mm for every increase of 100m in elevation below 4,800 masl (Y.H. Liu et al. 1983). Figure 2: Mean Annual Precipitation and Mean Air Temperature in Lhasa District
Sources: Bureau of Agriculture of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1993.
2.1.3 Land Resources
According to the official records, in 1992 agricultural land occupied 80.89 per cent of the total land area in Lhasa District, water area, transportation, settlement & factories occupied 1.84 per cent, 0.11 per cent, and 0.42 per cent respectively. The rest is unused land, which occupied 16.74 per cent of total land area.
4 1) Agricultural Land Agricultural land is mainly used for pasture, which accounts for 73.15 per cent. The arable land occupies only 2.86 per cent of total agricultural land. Forest and garden (vegetable and fruit) occupies 4.87 per cent and 0.01 per cent respectively (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Land Use Structure in Lhasa District (1992)
Grassland73.15%Settlements &Factories0.42%Water Area1.84%Transportation0.11%Unused Land16.74%Forest4.87%Garden0.01%Arable Land2.86%
Sources: Bureau of Land Management, Tibet Autonomous Region, 1992.
Grassland The main agricultural land type is grassland, which occupied 73.15 per cent of total land area. Because of the agroclimatic differences, grassland is mainly distributed at slope-land between 4,200 and 5,400 masl, and is predominantly used as pasture. Grasses are the main valuable natural resources for animal husbandry. Traditionally, four types of grasslands are classified: alpine meadow, sub-alpine shrub-meadow, mountain shrub and coarse grasses, and wet meadow. The alpine meadow is distributed above 4,600 (4,800) masl and is used as pasture during the winter season. In this pastureland zone, a shifting land use pattern is practised: moving to higher altitude in the warm season and retreating to lower altitude in cold season.
Arable land In areas below 4,200 masl, the climatic conditions, especially the temperature, are normally suitable for crops. Therefore, lands along the river's bank, alluvial-diluvial fans, and river terraces are reclaimed for crop production. Croplands are intensively used and are of significant importance in the cropland zone even though its proportionate area is less than the rest of the land. In lower elevation and the river valley, 91.8 per cent of cropland is irrigable, and the dry land is only distributed on some high slopes.
Land use patterns distinctly differ from the valley basin - cropland, passing the slopes - shrubland and grassland, to the mountains - unused land. According to agroclimatic
5 differences and land use patterns, two vertical zones, a cropland zone and a pastureland zone, are identified. The former is below 4,200 masl, and the latter is between 4,200 and 5,400 masl. On the slopes, semi-arid temperate shrubland and coarse grass are distributed, where the shrubs are mostly used for fuelwood, and the coarse grasses are used as pastures during the cold season. The following figure illustrates the general details of the vertical distribution (Table 1).
2) Unused land The total unused land area is about 325,990.6 hm2, accounting for 16.74 per cent of total land area. However, bare rock covers 96.41 per cent of all the unused land, and the rest is occupied permanent ice and glacier. Thus there is no land for reclaiming as cropland or pasture.
Lhasa District has a lack of natural forests. The temperature below 4,000m is suitable only for certain kinds of trees provided there is appropriate irrigation and management. Based on the land resources survey in 1992, trees can grow only on an area of 4,000 hm2, accounting for 4.84 per cent of total land area. The timber production potential of these trees has not yet been exploited.
6 Table 1: Land Cover and Land Use in Lhasa District Mean Temp Annual of Vertical masl Accm. Warme Soil Vegetation Crops Animal Zones Temp. ºC st Month ºC 5500 Snow & Ice Noval 500 6 Alpine Arenaria muscifamis Yak High Alpine Desert Soil Androsace tapete Sheep&Goat 500-1000 6-10 5000 Alpine Kobresia pygmaea Alpine Kobresia littlesalei Meadow Soil Anophalis xylorrhizo
Cattle 4500 1000- 1500 10-14 Spring Barley Sub-alpine Rhododendron Oil seed raps Meadow Soil Sabina pingii Spring wheat Bean Pig 1500- 4000 Sub-alpine 2000 14-17 Winter wheat Semi-arid Salix spp. Kobresia Winter barley Sophora Shrub Soil Moorcroftiana Vegetable Spiraea Mollifolia
3500 Populas Note: The position of different crop shows the highest elevation that can be cropped. Source: Y.H. Lliu, 1992.
2.1.4 Water Resource
Although the precipitation in Lhasa District is not high, it is abundant in water resource. There are two large rivers running across this district, Yalu Zangbu River and Lhasa River. Both of them have very large annual runoffs, which are 23 billions m3 and 10.5 billions m3 respectively.
2.1.5 Other Resources
Lhasa is also abundant in tourism resources. As the heart and soul of Tibet and an object of devout pilgrimage, Lhasa is still a city of wonders. The Potala, a vast white and ochre fortress, dominates the Lhasa skyline. Once the seat of Tibetan government and the location of the tombs of previous Dalai Lamas, the Potala serves as a symbolic focus for Tibetan
7 aspirations. 2 km to the east, it is the Jokhang temple, which is another spiritual heart of the city. The medieval push and shove of crowds, the street performers, the stalls hawking everything from prayer flags to jewel-encrusted yak skulls, and the devout tapping their foreheads to the ground at every stop is an exotic brew that few newcomers can resist. Every year, there are thousands of tourists both from home and abroad.
There are also some minerals distributed in the district. But, with poor transportation and small scale, they can't be developed in the near future.
2.2 Population Change
2.2.1 Population Growth
In the recent 40 years, population in Lhasa District grew rapidly. In 1952, the total population was only 114,000 persons, but in 1997, it reached 355,000 persons. Therefore, the annual growth rate from 1959 to 1997 is 25.56‰. But the growth rate changed in different periods. Basically, it can be divided into two periods 1952-78 and 1979-97 (Figures 4 and 5). The population growth rate was 12.25‰ during the first period, and was much higher during the second period (18.84‰). But in both periods, the population growth rates showed in the figures were decreasing clearly. Figure 4: Population Growth in Lhasa District (1952-78)
170000 50 y = 1697.4x + 118261 R2 = 0.9371 40 160000
30 150000
20 140000
10
130000 Growth Rate ‰ Population (person) 0
120000 Population -10 Growth Rate Trendline of Population Growth Rate 110000 Trendline of Population Growth -20
100000 -30 1970 1975 1976 1973 1978 1964 1967 1969 1963 1966 1959 1968 1965 1961 1974 1960 1962 1958 1971 1972 1977 1952 Year
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980.
8 Figure 5: Population Growth in Lhasa District (1979-97)
380000 150
Population Growth Rate 360000 130 Trendline of Population Growth Trendline of Population Growth Rate 110 340000
y = 6639.3x + 238061 90 320000 R2 = 0.916 70 300000 50 280000 Growth Rate ‰
Population (person) 30
260000 10
240000 -10
220000 -30
200000 -50 1979 19801981 19821983 1984 1985 19861987 1988 1989 19901991 19921993 19941995 19961997 Year Sources: Census Office, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1982, 1990; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
The census data of 1992 showed that the population aged between 0 and 12, who will be only 30-42 years old in 2022, occupied 29 per cent of total population. It means that in the next 30 years, population will grow continuously and rapidly. Based on the linear model of population growth (Figure 5), the population in Lhasa District will reach to 550,000 persons in the year of 2025, and will be doubled in 2040.
Rapid population growth enlarged population density severely. The population density of Lhasa District in 1997 reached to 18.2 person/km2, which was more than three times that in 1952, 5.9 person/km2. Population growth rate in urban area is much higher than that in rural area. For example, the population density in Lhasa City was enlarged from 57 person/km2 in 1952 to 263 person/km2 in1997, but in Damxung County, it kept lower than 1 person/km2. The spatial differences have been illustrated in the following Figure 6.
The spatial differences of population density can help us to understand clearly the population pressure. From Figure 6 we can see that population in urban area grew faster than in rural area. Moreover, the cropland and pasture are owned and management by local householders after 1985. Although recently there are some immigrants from other parts of China renting arable land to run in the urban outskirts, we can see that population pressure in rural region is much less than that in urban region.
9 Population growth in urban area is mainly caused by immigration, especially from Sichuan Province, Qinghai Province, and Gansu Province, etc. Immigration has clearly influenced the urban development. Positively, the immigrants are more skillful to run barber shops, restaurants, advertising, peddling and other services. Accordingly urban service has been improved dramatically. At the same time, they acted as technology demonstrators and promoted technology transfer from east China to Tibet. Negatively, they became one of the main resistant factors for local people's immigrating to urban area, and excessive immigration resulted in the great pressure to urban infrastructure. Furthermore, urban population was also influenced by the political movement, but more detailed data are unavailable for further analysis.
Figure 6: Spatial Differences of Population Density in Lhasa District
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1998.
2.2.2 Improvement of Population Quality
With population growth, population quality has also improved impressively. According to the census data, life expectancy in 1984 was 58.37, but improved 4.62 years only in six years, and reached to 62.99 in 1990. Literacy rate has also been raised. In 1982, there were 4.24, 12.12, 36.08, and 163.3 persons out of every 1,000 persons who had college level,
10 high school level, middle school level, and primary school level education respectively. But these numbers are raised to 5.74, 21.22, 38.5, and 185.97 respectively in 1990.
In a conclusion, in the last 40 years population growth in Lhasa District mainly took place in two periods: 1952-78 and 1979-97. Although the population still keeps a relatively high growth rate compared to other areas of China, the growth rate is decreasing slowly. With the young population structure and high gender ratio, population will keep a high birth rate, a low death rate, and a high natural growth rate in the next 30 years, and will be doubled in 2040.
The main causes for population change in Lhasa District came from three aspects. Firstly, with the rapid economic development, the living conditions have been improved dramatically, which decreased the death rate of the old. So the life expectancy is increased; Secondly, under the special policy of free health services for Tibetan people, as well as the improvement of sanitation conditions, the mortality rate of infants decreased remarkably; Thirdly, as mentioned above, immigration from other regions in and out Tibet accelerated the growth, especially in Lhasa city.
2.3 Socioeconomic Change and Development
2.3.1 Socioeconomic Transformation
From the 1950s, it is widely accepted that five periods of socioeconomic transformation can be clearly identified in terms of policy, land ownership, and institutions.
Before 1959, slavery was prevalent in Lhasa District as well as in the other parts of Tibet. Serf owners controlled all production materials, including cultivated land, livestock, grassland, and production tools. Seventy per cent of the produce of serfs and slaves was handed over to latifundiums and ranchers who represented only five per cent of the total population. At that time, agriculture development was very slow.
The period from 1959 to 1965 is called period of "Democratic Reforms". The most significant change was that land ownership was reallocated, and slaves were given their own land to cultivate and became farmers. Grassland became common property. To encourage land reclamation and agricultural development, it was declared that there would be no taxes for five years on newly reclaimed land. These institutional changes greatly encouraged the development of agriculture and animal husbandry.
11 During the period of "Cultural Revolution" which was from 1966 to 1976, the administrative structure in Lhasa District was urged to change into the "people's commune" system. The ownership of land and means of production was shifted from individual to public for planned and unified management. At that time, past experiences and production were over- evaluated, grain was regarded as the only crop and 'cut off sideline production' regardless of environmental and farming conditions. Agricultural production was guided much more by administrative cadres than by farmers, which seriously damaged the enthusiasm of the farmers and blocked agricultural development.
During the period from 1976 to 1984, many new policies were put forward and carried out, to save agriculture for the damage of Cultural Revolution. In 1980, and again in 1982, new policies emphasizing a market economy were formulated. The "Production Responsibility System" restored the right of land use and decision making to the farmers. The increased price of agricultural products encouraged farmers to improve production. Farmers were exempted from agricultural taxes and the financial subsidy granted by the Central Government was increased. Under these policies, crop production patterns were gradually readjusted, the slaughter rate for livestock increased, and sideline activities became one of the important components of agriculture.
In 1985, Xizang Autonomous Region began to carry out the special policy named “Tow Invariabilities”. This policy declared that (1) the land ownership was restored to farmers forever, who could manage it freely and independently, but assumed sole responsibility for its profits or losses; (2) the pasture ownership was restored to herdsmen forever, who could manage it freely and independently, but assumed sole responsibility for its profits or losses. This policy has greatly encouraged farmers' and herdsmen's enthusiasm to agricultural production. As a result, agriculture in recent years achieved rapid development.
2.3.2 Economic Growth
Economic development is intrinsically related to these socioeconomic transformations. But it showed different growth periods, which were mainly caused by natural disaster and technological improvement. Due to non-availability of data, only industrial production and agricultural production are analyzed below.
1) Industrial Production After more than 40 years of construction and development, the production ability of daily necessities, such as flour, sugar, soy source, beer, soap, detergent, cloth, wool, and many construction materials, has greatly improved in Lhasa District. Industrial output grows rapidly 12 since the establishment of Xizang Autonomous Region in 1965, except some waves in the middle of 1980s. Total value of industrial output in 1996 was about 15 times as large as that in 1966. From 1966 to 1996, the average annual growth rate of total industrial output was 6.22 per cent (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Value of Industrial Output in Lhasa District (1966-96)
50000 50
45000 Value 40 Growth Rate 40000
35000 30
30000 20 CNY) 4 25000
Value (10 10 20000 Growth Rate (%)
15000 0
10000 -10 5000
0 -20 1970 1979 1989 1990 1967 1968 1969 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1992 1993 1994 1995 1977 1978 1981 1991 Year Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
2) Agricultural Production Agricultural output grew continuously, and the mean annual growth rate was 8.1 per cent from 1958 to 1996 (Figure 8). But due to the natural disasters, agricultural production changed annually, and in some years even had negative growth. But it began to grow rapidly from 1985, mainly caused by the "Two Invariabilities" policy.
13 Figure 8: Value of Agricultural Output in Lhasa District (1952-96)
50000 50
45000 40 40000 Value of Agricultural Output Growth Rate 35000 30 CNY) 4
30000 20 (%)
25000 Rate
10 20000 Growth
15000 0 Agricultural Output Value (10 10000 -10 5000 Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang0 Autonomous Region, 1980-1998. -20 1961 1959 1979 1977 1971 1965 1963 1952 1995 1989 1987 1983 1981 1975 1969 1973 1967 1993 1991 1985 Year As discussed above, animal husbandry and crop production are the principal agricultural sectors in Lhasa District (Cheng Hong et al. 1984). Sideline is another component of agriculture, which mainly includes six kinds of activity in Lhasa District as followings: 1) temporary employment for construction and transportation; 2) collecting fuel wood, cow dung, turf, and fodder and selling them; 3) small-scale side occupations such as charcoal- making, brick-making, and firing quicklime; 4) small-scale processing and handicrafts, e.g., extracting oil, weaving rugs, and knitting woollen goods and as employed craftsmen; 5) hunting; and 6) collecting medicinal plants. These activities used to be organized by the collectives, but are carried out by households now. Production from sideline is an important source of farmers' income, but it was restricted until the end of the "Cultural Revolution". Rapid development in this field took place after 1980. Lack of natural forests, the output from forestry consists mostly of fruit, namely apples, peaches, pears, and walnuts. The fruit trees are distributed throughout the lower reaches of the Lhasa Valley. Fruit production has great potential in the future but requires relatively high investment and meticulous management. Fishery was not the tradition in Lhasa District because the Tibetans were not used to eating fish. Because of the limited fishery resources, the contribution of the fisheries has been extremely marginal (less than one per cent). Due to data shortage, the following sections will mainly focus on crop production and animal husbandry.
Crop Production Crop production is an important sector of the district economy, but is severely limited by the climatic conditions and terrain in Lhasa District. Single yield cropping is predominant below 4,200 masl where the mean annual temperature ranges from 50C to 8.20C, and the mean annual precipitation changes from 300mm to 700mm. Dry farming crops consist mainly of
14 winter wheat, spring wheat, highland barley, pulse, buckwheat, rape, potato, and some vegetables.
From 1952 to 1997, the total yield of crop grew annually by 4.74 per cent (Figure 9). Crop production has been increased dramatically in the last 45 years in Lhasa District. The total crop production in 1997 was 8 times as large as that in 1952. Moreover, there is a very clear change that the yields of Tibetan barley in most years were higher than that of wheat, but in recent four years wheat production increased faster than Tibetan barley and its yield even exceeded Tibetan barley. That not only reflects the production change, but also means that the custom to eat barley is changing, and more and more Tibetans like to eat wheat now.
Figure 9: Crop Production in Lhasa District (1952-97)
16000
14000
12000 Crop Tibetan Barley 10000 wheat kg) 4 8000 Yeild (10 6000
4000
2000
0 1963 1961 1952 1985 1981 1979 1975 1973 1969 1959 1987 1993 1977 1991 1971 1989 1995 1997 1965 1983 1967 Year Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
The main driving forces causing the growth are largely:
Firstly, the arable land of Lhasa District increased from about 22,400 hm2 in 1952 to 38,000 hm2 in 1997, representing an increment of more than 345 hm2 per annum. Simultaneously, the sown area kept similar growth to the arable land.
Secondly, the productivity improved. As a whole, the productivity of crops has risen markedly but not uniformly (Figure 10). Among the major crops, wheat is the most productive and has had the highest increase. The yield increased 9 times from 555.51 kg/hm2 in 1952 to 5679.60 kg/hm2 in 1997. Barley and other cereals (mainly buckwheat) have lower rates of growth, but also outstandingly, from 923 kg/hm2 in 1952 to 4164
15 kg/hm2 in 1997, increased 3.5 times. Pulses and oilseeds are traditional crops in the district, and their productivity also improved respectively 1.5 and 5.2 times in the same period.
Figure 10: Productivity of Different Crops in Lhasa District
6000 2
kg/hm Tibetan Barley 5000 wheat Pulses Oilseed
4000
3000
2000
1000
0 1993 1985 1995 1987 1979 1971 1963 1973 1965 1952 1997 1989 1981 1991 1983 1975 1967 1959 1977 1969 1961
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
Thirdly, changes in cropping patterns also contributed to the increase in crop production. Figure 11 indicates the cropping patterns in terms of sown area and proportion for different crops in Lhasa District in the past 45 years. We can see that the sown area of wheat increased distinctly from 1972. With a higher productivity compared to barley, wheat is crucial to the stabile food production in the area. From 1958 to 1984 there were fluctuations in the size of areas under different crops. Production management, technological improvements, crop productivity, and people's preferences and policies influenced these changes.
16 Figure 11: Change of Cropping Patterns in Lhasa District
1800
Barley 1600 wheat Pulses 1400 Oilseed
1200
1000
1000 ha 800
600
400
200
0
1952 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Year
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
When comparing the increases in production, cultivated land, and land productivity of different crops, some features can be identified. The significant components contributing to the growth in crop production were barley and wheat, which have not only had rapid increases in production but also have occupied the major share in both cultivated land and gross output.
Barley is the staple food grain of the Tibetans and has been the traditional priority in food production. In general, the increase in barley production has been influenced more by raising productivity than by expansion of cultivated lands. In the case of wheat production, a positive change occurred after 1972, and its productivity, sown area and total yield increased dramatically. Total yield of wheat rose from 5,820 tons in 1972 to 34,920 tons in 1978. The sown area and total yield were stable gradually in the1980s, but increased rapidly again in the 1990s.
The changes in distribution pattern are also an important factor in crop production. In general, crop production is increasing rapidly throughout the lower reaches. For example, the cropland exploitation in Pengbo Farm rapidly increased the wheat yield of Lhunzhub County from 3904 tons to 22,432 tons during the period of 1985-1997. Moreover, in counties where the major cultivated lands are below 3,800 masl, the contribution of wheat to crop production is greater than that of barley.
17 Development of Animal Husbandry Animal husbandry is not merely an established tradition, but also an important factor in the district economy. Animal husbandry products in Lhasa District mainly consist of meat, milk (including dairy products), hides, and wool. Except for hides and wool, the products from animal husbandry are mainly consumed locally. Meat and milk are the traditional components of the local people's diet.
The management of animal husbandry was, and still is, characterized by semi-nomadic herding on extensive rangelands. Animal husbandry is prevalent from valley floors to highland areas. Based on the economic importance of animal husbandry to the gross agricultural output value, elevation of the area, and management practices, three types of pastoral systems are in operation.
1. Auxiliary Pastoralism. Auxiliary pastoralism is practised in valley basins with an elevation of below 3,800 masl. Crop production, accounting for more than 75 per cent of the total agricultural output value, is the dominant agricultural sector in this area. Livestock, consisting of more cattle and goats than yaks and sheep, are pastured on the fallow lands, basin grasslands, and the surrounding valley slopes close to the farmers' residences. Swine are the prevalent livestock found in this area.
2. Mixed Pastoralism. Mixed pastoralism is practised in areas between the valley basins and highlands. Crop production and animal husbandry are of same importance to agriculture. The output value of animal husbandry, less than 80 per cent of agriculture, varies depending upon the availability of arable land, elevation, etc. Seasonal range management is in practice: Farmers plant crops at the beginning of the warm season in the croplands, then drive herds to the highland areas. After staying there for three to four months, they come down (normally at the end of September) to harvest their crops.
3. Pastoralism Dominated. Pastoralism dominated animal husbandry is mainly in the highland areas (above 4,200 masl). Animal husbandry is the dominant activity in agriculture. The herdsmen have permanent settlements in relatively low and wind-sheltered places. The surroundings of their homesteads are used as pastures during winter and spring. As the weather becomes warmer (in May), nomadic pasturing begins. Livestock is sent to higher and higher area until the weather compels them to move down. The nomadic period lasts at least half a year.
18 The majority of animals are ruminants, such as cattle, yak, sheep, goats, etc. As the production pattern of animal husbandry has changed little since the 1950s, the number of livestock can be taken as a traditional indicator of the changes in production. It increased continuously from 450,000 heads in 1953 to 1,144,500 heads in 1997, with annual increment of only 2 per cent (Figure 12).
The main features of animal husbandry in Lhasa District are: (1) The number of livestock increases continuously, but very slow. Sheep-breeding is the most profitable activity; (2) Development of animal husbandry is shifted to highland areas. The number of livestock has increased much more in the high altitude areas than in the lower reaches of the Lhasa Valley, where crop production is more developed and also vegetable and swine production become more and more important to the economic development; (3) The livestock structure has changed slightly. The proportion of sheep to total livestock increased by 3 per cent, while the proportion of other types of animal decreased; (4) The density of livestock is lower in the highland area than in the lower reaches, where livestock has agriculture remains except the grass.
Figure 12: Livestock Production in Lhasa District
140
120 LargeAnimal Sheep 100 Total
80 heads 4
10 60
40
20
0 1963 1961 1959 1952 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1973 1991 1993 1995 1997 1971 1969 1967 1965 Year Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
2.3.3 Evolution of Industrial Structure
With the economic growth in Lhasa District, industrial structure evolved synchronously. This change can be interpreted well in terms of the contributions of agriculture and industry to GDP. The agricultural structure also changed distinctly.
19 Agriculture and Industry Agriculture is the most important sector in Lhasa District. In most years, its total output value was higher than that of industry (Figure 13). Before the year of 1979, the ratio of total output value of agriculture to that of industry decreased continuously. In this period, industry in Lhasa District developed faster than agriculture. After 1979, the ratio increased faster and reached to its peak in 1991. After that, it decreased again. Figure 14 gives us more details. The contribution of agriculture to total economic output was higher than that of industry during the periods of 1952-76 and 1981-94, but lower during the period of 1976-81. From this evolution, we can see that agriculture is more important sector than industry in Lhasa District. This conclusion has not only been drawn out of their output values, but also from its natural resources and environment conditions analyzed above. Up to date, Lhasa has no railway to connect to the outside. Technicians and many materials, which industrialization needs, are not available at present. Moreover, the historical development shows that agriculture has great potential in this region.
Figure13: Ratio of Agricultural Output Value to Industrial Output Value in Lhasa District
3
2.5
2
1.5 Ratio
1
0.5
0 1967 1968 1973 1974 1969 1970 1966 1978 1975 1979 1971 1980 1981 1972 1982 1984 1983 1976 1986 1985 1977 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1991 1994 1995 Year Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
20 Figure 14: Contributions of Agriculture and Industry to GDP
80
70 Agriculture
Industry 60
% 50
40
30
20 Year
196619671968196919701971197219731974197519761977197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
Agricultural Structure With regards to the main components of agriculture, namely five sectors as crop production, forestry, animal husbandry, sideline activities, and fisheries, are covered in Lhasa District. However, their development patterns and levels are different (CAS 1980).
Figure 15: Evolution of Agricultural Structure in Lhasa District
80 20
18 70 (%) 16 60 14
Husbandry 50 12
40 10
8 30 Fisheries and Sidelines (%) ¡¢ 6 Production¡¢Animal 20 4 Forestry Crop 10 2
0 0 1959 1993 1952 1989 1991 1975 1977 1961 1963 1965 1979 1981 1971 1967 1969 1973 1987 1983 1985 1995 Year
Crop Production Animal Livestock Forestry Sidelines Fishery
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
21 Figure 15 shows a very interesting and important trend of the evolution of agricultural structure of Lhasa District that the contribution of animal husbandry production to total agricultural production decreased continuously in the past decades, but the contribution of crop production and sideline increased accordingly. Mainly three periods can be identified. Before 1976, contribution of animal husbandry to total agriculture output value was higher than that of crop production. During the period from 1976 to 1989, crop production contributed more to total agricultural output value than animal husbandry. In the 1990s, contribution of crop production to total agricultural output value was much higher than that of animal husbandry. These structural changes show that crop production in Lhasa District developed much faster than that of animal husbandry as discussed above, and, it has become the most important sector in the 1990s.
Looking to the future, the development of sideline will be faster, and the fruit production also has great potential. The development of sidelines and fruit production might change the agricultural structure remarkably. Because of the limited fishing resources, the contribution of the fisheries is, and will keep extremely marginal (less than one per cent).
2.3.4 Social Development
With the continuous and rapid economic growth, Lhasa District has also achieved outstanding development in social fields, such as transportation, post service, sanitation, communication, and education. These, in some sense, are more important than economic growth. For example, the miles of blacktop road doubled in the last 20 years. Sanitation is free for Tibetan people, and the number of sickbeds in hospitals increased from 23 in 1962 to 1652 in 1996. The enrolled students in primary school increased from 730 in 1952 to 43090 in 1993. The communication and entertainment services, such as Internet, telephone and mobile phones, radio and TV, are available in Lhasa. In these fields, the gaps between Lhasa and other parts of China are quiet small. Social development is the final goal for economic development, and governmental investment was the main driving force of social development.
2.4 Interactions among PRED
A broad overview of environment and natural resources, population growth, and socioeconomic development in Lhasa District has been reviewed above. In the following part, the interactions among population, resource, environment, and development will be identified.
22 2.4.1 Population and Resource
In the last decades, the population in Lhasa District experienced a rapid growth. This has generated a great pressure to natural resources. Taking the indicator of area of arable land per capita as an example, the pressure can be illustrated clearly.
The total area of arable land of Lhasa District increased 345 hm2 annually from 1952 to 1997, but the arable land area per capita decreased very fast, from 4.2 mu* in 1952 to 2.2 mu 1997 (see Figure 16), with a decrease of 2 mu. Moreover, based on the analysis of land use above, there is no further potential for reclaiming arable land.
2.4.2 Population and Development
The population is both the producer and the consumer. An increased population can provide a bigger labour force for production, but it also needs more products for consumption.
Figure16: Changes of Arable Land and its Area Per Capita in Lhasa District
620000 4.50
520000 4.00
420000 3.50
320000 3.00 Area Area
220000 2.50 Area of Arable Land Arable Land per capita
120000 2.00
20000 1.50
1952 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 Year Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
1) Population and Crop Production Food is the basic but most important need of human being. Although the area of arable land per capita continuously decreases since 1952, the productivity of arable land increases even faster, which mainly comes from the introduction and propagation of new seeds, irrigation facilities, and improvement of management. Therefore, the grain per capita grew fast (Figure
23 17). Figure 17 also shows that grain per capita of Lhasa District is determined by the land productivity, especially after 1979. Using the data from 1952 to 1997, the relationships between productivity (grain per mu) and food availability (grain per capita) can be formulated as following: A = 0.7652 P + 159.38 R2 = 0.7334
F = 101.7784 > F0.01 (1, 43) = 7.28 A and P represent grain per capita and grain per area unit respectively. Both R2 and F-value show high significances of this equation. Figure 17 also clearly shows that the contribution of productivity after 1976 was much higher than before. Thus the increment of crop production will depend on the increment of productivity.
Figure 17: Food Productivity and Availability in Lhasa District
350 500
450 300
400
250 350
300 200
250 Grain per capita Grain/mu 150 200
150 100 Grain per mu
Grain per capita 100
50 Adjusted Grain per capita 50
0 0 1995 1997 1993 1991 1989 1971 1987 1985 1981 1983 1969 1959 1977 1967 1952 1975 1965 1979 1973 1963 1961 Year
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
Food Security Forecasting: According to the linear model of population growth, population of Lhasa District will be 520,000 persons in 2020 year, with annual growth rate of 16.7‰. This rate is higher than the proposed target of 15.0‰ set by the local government. If keeping the current food security level (430 kg per capita in 1996 and 1997), then the grain demand will be 223.6 million kg in 2020, with annual growth rate of 16.8 per cent. This rate is much lower than the average annual growth rate of 3.86 per cent in the 1990s. As mentioned above, there is no potential of reclaiming arable land. If the arable land area can
* 1 hm2 = 15 mu. 24 be kept stable, the productivity (yield of grain per area) needs to increase 1.68 per cent annually, lower than that 5.32 per cent in the 1990s. So, the food security in Lhasa District is pretty good. But in this kind of fragile and marginal environment, supplies of food for a rapid growing population will continue to dominate the agricultural strategy.
2) Population and Industry In the past decades, the development in Lhasa District once stressed on the industrialization. But the development of industry was not fast. If considering the population and industry development synthetically, the per capita output value of industrial changes much slowly than that of agriculture, especially in the 1990s (Figure 18). That means to meet the demands of industrial products, Lhasa District had to import some of them from other provinces. But, a strategy for industry development in this region should be selected carefully. With the construction of Qingzang railway, from Xining, Qinghai Province to Lhasa, the transportation condition will be greatly improved. The imported industrial products from other province via Qingzang railway will compete severely with those produced in Tibet. So, in the near future, especially after the Qingzang railway is open to traffic, Lhasa District should produce more daily necessities, but not develop heavy industry.
2.4.3 Development and Resources
Resources are one of the main sources of economic development or economic growth. But once the carrying capacity of resources is exceeded, economic growth will lose its source and also resource deterioration and environment problems will be generated. To illustrate this interaction between development and resources, we take animal husbandry development and grassland management as examples.
25 Figure 18: Relationship between Population and Development in Lhasa District
1600
1400
1200
Per Capita Agricultural Output Value 1000 Per Capita Industiral Output Value
800 CNY
600
400
200
Year 0 1979 1989 1965 1971 1981 1952 1991 1967 1973 1983 1959 1993 1969 1975 1985 1961 1995 1977 1987 1963
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
Overgrazing is the main pressure to the grassland. The theoretical carrying capacity of grassland of Lhasa District is about 2,300,000 sheep units*. But the total sheep units in Lhasa District reached 2,280,000 in 1982, and exceeded the carrying capacity after that. In 1997, it reached 3,040,000, resulting in an overgrazing rate of 32.5 per cent. The overgrazing phenomenon is extremely serious in the cold season when there are not enough grasses for livestock. Normally the overgrazing will exceed 50 per cent. This caused not only the decreasing of grass quality, but also heavy grassland deterioration and soil erosion in some area. In the pastoral area, the soil depth is only 10-20 cm, once the soil erodes, it is almost impossible to restore. Possible countermeasures should include increasing the commercial trade of livestock and encourage the slaughter before the cold season comes. Local people are not accustomed the commercial trade, so in many cases, animal husbandry is used in their traditional material-barter trade as currency. Moreover, livestock especially sheep is regarded as one of their most important wealth, even equal to wealth. Tibetan people are opposed to kill animals. To decrease the overstocking rate, ethical and traditional opinions should be changed as well as some economic measures being taken, such as improving transportation and capabilities to accommodate a reasonable scale of slaughter, expending sufficient marketing channels to stimulate the output of animal products and its commercialization.
* The equivalent factors for sheep units calculation are: 5 for cattle/yak, 3.6 for horse/mule/donkey, and 0.7 for goat. The calculation for total sheep units does not include swine. 26 2.4.4 Environment and Development
Development in Lhasa District, especially agriculture, is restricted heavily by the prevailing environmental conditions, which are determined by its high elevation.
1) Temperature. Due to the high elevation, temperature in the area, especially the highest temperature that determines the crop propagation, is relatively low. Therefore, crop farming is only possible in the limited range of the river valley below 4,200 masl.
2) Drought. Due to the fact that rainfall in the area is concentrated during the period from June to September, the drought period lasts for eight months. Drought, especially in the spring, is a severe constraint for both crop production and animal husbandry. Development of irrigation systems is costly in the area, but it is the basic requirement for sustainable agriculture and food security.
3) Fragility. The mountain area of Lhasa District is heavily dissected by rivers. The physical environment is very fragile; characterized by steep slopes, shallow soil layers, and scattered vegetation cover. In general, the soil depth is only about 10 to 15 cm. Once the soil erodes, it is hard or impossible to rehabilitate.
Moreover, environment also determined the distribution patterns of industry and population in this area as discussed above.
In conclusion, Lhasa District in the latest 45 years experienced a rapid population growth, accompanied with fast economic growth and socioeconomic development. Looking at this process, it has been noted that the impact of development has exceeded population growth. The interactions among PRED showed that some problems, such as the decrease of arable land per capita, and overgrazing, became more and more severe.
3. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Based on the discussion on the PRED system of Lhasa District, a sustainable development strategy in the future will emphasize the following aspects:
3.1 Integration and Coordination of Socioeconomic Development and Environmental Management
Economic development in Lhasa District, especially agriculture, is restricted heavily by the prevailing environmental conditions and climatic characters, which are determined by its high 27 elevation. Temperature especially the highest temperature, and drought especially in the spring are severe constraints for both crop production and animal husbandry. The fragile mountain environment determined the distribution patterns of industry and population in this area. So, development in the future should emphasize the integration and coordination of economic and environmental management.
Regarding resource potential, grassland is the most advantageous. But, with the overstocking as well as lack of manure and fertilizers, grassland degradation is extensive in Lhasa District. Both the productivity and quality of grassland is decreasing. Crop production achieved great development, both in terms of productivity and total yield. But there is no potential for arable land reclamation. Technological improvement and production management might be the main measures to achieve food security. Shrubs on the slopes are cut for firewood, and even grass roots in the meadows are uprooted for use as fuel. Wind erosion, leading to desertification, became very serious in recent years. To achieve sustainable development, measures to harmonize the environment and development, to integratedly use arable land, slope shrubs, and rangelands together to meet the needs of both food and fuel must be taken. The benign eco-cycle of resource exploitation, environment management, economic development and population growth should be established in this area.
3.2 Shifting from Industrialization to Integrated Agricultural Industrialization
Industrialization strategy was once very popular in Lhasa District. It was showed in Figure 19 that local government has invested a lot of money to build local industrial system, including heavy industry and light industry. The investment in agricultural sector in most years was the lowest compared to that in other two fields. It is sound argument that agricultural development mainly depends on the investment of farmers. But, they cannot afford the agricultural infrastructure construction, such as irrigation system. Lhasa District has not enough precipitation, and in the past it often suffered drought in spring. But it has Lhasa River and Yalu Zangbu River, and abounds of water resource. Although irrigation system has been improved, the system needs to be maintained every year. From the fact that the irrigated arable land area increased very slowly, it can be deduced that the irrigation condition in Lhasa District needs to be improved. This needs governmental investment for construction and maintenance. Some research showed that the investment in industrial sector has much lower economic efficiency than that in agricultural sector. One CNY of industrial output in Lhasa District needed 2.89 CNY of central government financial assistance (Wen, J., 1999). But industrialization strategy consumed huge amount of investment, and chances of agricultural development were lost. In the national industrial 28 distribution situation, Lhasa District has no advantages due to the marginal location, long- distance transportation, small local demand, and low education level of population. Rational economic development strategy should shift from industrialization to integrated agricultural industrialization.
Figure19: Government Financial Expenditure of Lhasa District
45
industry/infrastructure 40 agriculture 35 education, sanitation, and communication
30
25 % 20
15
10
5
0 Year 1959 1975 1965 1977 1993 1971 1983 1961 1989 1967 1979 1973 1985 1963 1991 1969 1981 1987
Sources: Planning Committee of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980; Statistical Bureau of Lhasa, Xizang Autonomous Region, 1980-1998.
3.3 Coordinated Development of Crop Production and Animal Husbandry
The agriculture has achieved great development since 1952. But agricultural structure was not rationale. The contribution of crop production continuously increased, but the contribution of animal husbandry decreased to 30 per cent in 1990s. From the government investment on these two sectors it can be seen that the investment in grassland was much lower than in arable land (Table 2). With the faster development in crop farming, the investment ability of farmers is now much higher than that of the herdsmen in pastoralism area. Increasing government investment in grassland will not only help the local herdsmen, but also conserve the environment as a whole, and to build benign eco-cycle in the agricultural system in Lhasa District.
Table 2: Agricultural Investment Structure
Historical Period Cooperatives People's Communes Family Responsibility System
Crop (%) 100 74.33 70.68
Animal Husbandry (%) 0 23.81 27.19
Forestry (%) 0 1.86 2.13 Sources: Wen, J. 1999.
29 3.4 Accelerating Development of Animal Husbandry
Grassland occupied more than 73 per cent of total land area of Lhasa District as mentioned above. Development of this resource should be considered more carefully. In the last decades, with the animal husbandry development, the number of livestock increased very fast, and even exceeded the carrying capacity of grassland. Now the grassland degradation is very extensive in this area. Main reasons behind this phenomenon are: 1) Low slaughter rate. Local Tibetan people regard livestock as their most important wealth, and they are not willing to kill animals; 2) Poor market system. In most rural areas, the traditional manner of trade (material-barter trade) is still prevalent; 3) Poor transportation blocks the development of rural market.
To accelerate the development of animal husbandry, not only economic measures should be taken, but also ethics and religion need to be changed gradually. Traditionally a huge number of livestock were kept in the cold season, and many of them died due to lack of grass or coldness in winter. Even the surviving livestock lost much weight during the winter season. More rational animal husbandry development should keep a rational number of livestock in cold season, so that there is enough forage grass for feeding. Moreover, the structure of livestock should be improved to guarantee the propagation in the next year, and a higher economic efficiency. Old livestock consume much more forage grass than young one, and they grow slower than the young. Slaughtering at the end of warm season should also be encouraged to improve the economic efficiency. But a more developed market and transportation network are the basic preconditions.
3.5 Controlling Population Growth
According to the above analysis, population in Lhasa District will continue to grow rapidly. The growth rate will be higher than 15‰ set by government, and the population will be doubled in 2040. Comparing the population pressure in rural and urban area, the latter will face more serious situation if there is no related policy. A large number of people in Lhasa City are immigrants from other parts of China. In the future, to decrease the population pressure in Lhasa City, and to promote the urbanization for local people, certain immigration policy should be carried out, such as higher tax for immigrants or lower tax for Tibetan people. In the future, the family planning also should be encouraged in local people.
30 4. CONCLUSION
Restricted to the environment and natural resources, the development strategy should shift from purely economic development to the combination of socioeconomic development and environment management. Moreover, the economic development in the near future should shift from industrialization to integration of agriculture development and environment conservation. Government investment structure should be inclined from heavy industry and crop production to light industry and animal husbandry development are necessary. Meanwhile, market system and transportation network should be improved gradually, to quicken the commercialization especially in pastoralism area, so as to increase the commercial rate of livestock and economic efficiency of animal husbandry. At the same time, pressure to grassland will be decreased. The benign eco-cycle in agricultural system should be established among crop production in the valleys and on the slopes, animal husbandry in farming, agro-pasturing and pasturing area, and sustainable utilization of arable land, grassland, and shrub land. To achieve a sustainable future, policies on population control should be carried out, especially restricting the exclusive immigration from other part of China to Lhasa City. This policy will not only help to decrease the population pressure in Lhasa City, but also will promote the urbanization of local Tibetan people. Development of Lhasa District should benefit firstly the local people, both in Lhasa District and the other areas of Tibet, for both political and economic considerations.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
I would like to express my warmest thanks Prof. Tarcisio Della Senta, Dr. Fu-chen Lo, Prof. Masahisa Fujita, Madam Toshie Honda, Mr. W Bradnee Chambers, Ms. Miho Komiyama, Dr. N S Cooray, Dr. Xianfu Lu, and other colleagues in UNU/IAS. I am very grateful to Prof. Honglie Sun for his help and support to my study and so on.
31 REFERENCES
(Please contact UNU/IAS [email protected] for hard copy of reference list as it contains Chinese names/characters which are difficult to convert within PDF documents)