COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | SINGAPORE | 11 SEPTEMBER 2018 Primary Author: JM Tan Senior Analyst | Research +65 6531 8533 [email protected] For further information: Tricia Song Director and Head Research | Singapore +65 6531 8536 [email protected] Duncan White Executive Director and Head Office Services | Singapore +65 6531 8684 [email protected] Jonathan Wright Director Flexible Workspace Services | Asia +852 2822 0577 [email protected] Tang Wei Leng Managing Director | Singapore +65 6531 8688 [email protected] BREAKING NEW GROUND Opportunities amidst the rapid growth of flexible workspace and emergence of flexible leasing strategies in Singapore COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | SINGAPORE | 11 SEPTEMBER 2018 Examining the Implications for the Summary & Recommendations 30% Singapore Office Market Flexible workspace stock in Singapore As of H1 2018, the flexible workspace industry is nearly tripled since 2015, with 2017 Expected YOY growth of total flexible already one of the top five occupier sectors in recording the steepest annual growth on workspace stock in Singapore over 2018 the CBD Premium and Grade A office market. record (+44% YOY). The sector looks to We are positive on the growth of the industry, be firmly on track for another 30% and view the increasing adoption of a ‘flex’ office growth in total stock over 2018, given component amongst businesses as a crucial operators’ aggressive expansion plans. catalyst for sustainable, long-term growth. months This is evidenced by a growing number of > We see an opportunity for occupiers 12-24 multinational corporations inking flexible to consider flexible leasing strategies, Average lease tenure of flexible workspace workspace membership deals to constitute a especially against the backdrop of memberships in Singapore ‘flex’ office component, which complements the landlord-favourable conditions in traditional ‘core’ leased office space. Singapore’s office market. Occupiers For the Singapore Grade A office market, flexible should exploit the current supply workspace growth should loosely support annual overhang and competitive landscape net absorption over 2018-2022, underpinned by to secure attractive commercial SGD390‒600 the sector’s generous square footage allocated terms from operators. to ancillary/amenity spaces, and the ability to Average pricing* for a hot-desk in flexible channel new occupier-types that were previously > We advise landlords and developers workspace centres across Singapore unable to lease prime office space viably without to review and reposition their assets a pooled membership model. given evolving real estate As for flexible workspace operators, the rapid requirements, and demand for growth of the industry will also likely see greater flexibility amongst occupiers. competition and further consolidation activity. SGD700‒900 Furthermore, we have observed some market > Landlords should also engage with saturation in the low- to mid-tier brackets, which the existing and potential tenant mix Average pricing* for a dedicated desk in will place pressure on flexible workspace to anticipate any product/amenity flexible workspace centres within the CBD occupancy levels and desk prices. We study the gap that can be effectively addressed sector in greater detail within this report. via a suitable partnership with an *Based on 129 flexible workspace centres with published rates (non-subsidized). Average pricing refers to the interquartile range (between the 25th and 75th external operator, or self- percentiles). Denoted in Singapore Dollar (SGD) per month.. USD1 = SGD1.368 as of JM Tan administered flexible workspace. 31 August 2018 Senior Analyst Source: Colliers International Singapore Research Research | Singapore 2 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | SINGAPORE | 11 SEPTEMBER 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Page STILL FAST: STRONG MOMENTUM INTO 2018 4 STILL FURIOUS: COMPETITION HEATS UP ON SUPPLY 10 Total flexible workspace footprint in Singapore Flexible workspace supply poses a challenge to nearly tripled since 2015 4 under-performing operators 10 Flexible workspace now ranked among top five Top seven players control more than 60% of occupier sectors in CBD prime office market 6 Singapore flexible workspace market 10 Orchard Road gaining interest, retail-to-flexible Small- to mid-sized operators facing saturation, workspace conversions picking up 7 further consolidation expected 11 Focus shifting to smaller buildings given tight Flexible workspace attractively priced amidst rising availability in Grade A market 8 office rents in Singapore 12 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 13 3 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | SINGAPORE | 11 SEPTEMBER 2018 STILL FAST: STRONG MOMENTUM Fig. 1: Total Stock, Supply and YOY Growth of Flexible Workspace NLA YOY Growth INTO 2018 (‘000 sq ft) (%) 4,000 60% Total flexible workspace footprint in Singapore nearly 3,000 44% tripled since 2015 40% 2,000 31% 30% 2017 was a whirlwind year for the flexible workspace sector, which grew 44% YOY in terms of total real estate footprint across Singapore, marking 20% 20% 1,000 the fastest annual growth in the sector’s history. This encompasses coworking spaces and serviced offices. 0 0% According to Colliers International's research, flexible workspace now 2016 2017 2018F 2019F occupy approximately 2.7 million sq ft (251,000 sq m) across Singapore, nearly tripling from about 1 million sq ft (90,000 sq m) at the end of 2015 Forecast Supply Net Supply (YTD for 2018) (Fig. 1). Cumulative Stock YOY Growth (%) Source: Colliers International Singapore Research Fig. 2. Selected Flexible Workspaces Transactions in H1 2018 Flexible Workspace Estimated Size Location Operator (sq ft) Growth was driven by the entry of operators from overseas markets, while Campfire 139 Cecil Street 85,000 being supplemented by the expansion plans of incumbent operators looking to establish new locations (Fig. 2). WeWork 8 Cross Street 60,000 Following 2017's rapid expansion, we expect total flexible workspace Spaces Paya Lebar Quarter Tower 1 52,000 footprint to grow between 30% to 35% YOY for full-year 2018, or Spaces TripleOne Somerset 35,000 approximately 670,000 sq ft (62,000 sq m). WeWork 22 Cross Street 29,000 This should closely match 2017's record-breaking net expansion of 680,000 sq ft (63,000 sq m) in total flexible workspace stock. Regus Vision Exchange 26,000 Found 100 Amoy Street 22,000 JustCo Macdonald House 16,000 The Work Project Parkview Square 15,000 Source: Colliers International Singapore Research 4 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | SINGAPORE | 11 SEPTEMBER 2018 A significant majority of the Singapore market's More recently, flexible workspaces have taken Fig. 3: Distribution of Flexible Workspace Stock total flexible workspace footprint (84%) is space in the fringe areas of the CBD in addition located within the Central Business District to the initial core clusters around Raffles Place Suburban, (CBD) (Fig. 3). As of 30 June 2018, the CBD hosts (Fig. 4). This provides a wider range of choice 7% some 2.3 million sq ft (211,000 sq m) of flexible and cost-alignment for potential flexible City Fringe, workspace, versus 2.7 million sq ft (251,000 sq workspace occupiers. 9% m) island-wide. Looking ahead, we expect the flexible 2.7 million sq ft In terms of growth, the sector's total CBD workspace footprint to grow in non-core CBD (NLA) footprint has more than doubled since 2015, locations, and decentralized submarkets. For from 969,000 sq ft (90,000 sq m) to 2.3 million instance, four flexible workspace deals were sq ft (211,000 sq m) (Fig. 4). This translates to a closed in the Orchard Road micro-market during CBD, 84% growth rate in the CBD averaging 1% of stock the first six months of 2018, as discussed in the per annum. next sections. …we expect the Source: Colliers International Singapore Research flexible workspace footprint to grow Fig. 4: Flexible Workspace Density* and Stock in Singapore Core CBD (2015 vs. H1 2018) in non-core CBD locations, and decentralized submarkets. 2015 H1 2018 969,000 sq ft 2,274,000 sq ft *Density refers to total flexible workspace (net lettable area; sq ft) per address, which may include more than one operator in some buildings. Source: Colliers International Singapore Research 5 COLLIERS RADAR OFFICE | SINGAPORE | 11 SEPTEMBER 2018 Fig. 5: Top 5 Occupier Sectors in the CBD Premium and Grade A Office Market (H1 2018) 5% Top 5 45% 10% 6% Occupier Flexible Sectors Financial Professional Energy & Tech Services Services Shipping Workspace (by % share of CBD Premium & Grade A office stock) 13% Flexible workspace Source: Colliers International Singapore Research will constitute a growing proportion of Flexible workspace now ranked Flexible workspace will constitute a growing operators is well-matched with tech companies’ proportion of office stock as more corporations high growth momentum and their need for rapid office stock as among top five occupier sectors in more corporations take up a ‘flex’ component as part of their headcount scalability. commercial leasing strategy. take up a ‘flex’ CBD prime office market Overall, we view the increasingly widespread component as part As of 30 June 2018, flexible workspace operators Notably, the banking and financial services sector adoption of a ‘flex’ office component amongst of their occupy 4.5% (Fig. 5) of CBD Premium and Grade is an early adopter of flexible leasing strategies, businesses as a key catalyst for sustainable, long- commercial A office stock, placing it among the top five despite initial concerns around privacy and term growth of the