Friday, June 26, 2020 | daily publication Morning Comments Equity Market, Poland Research Department: Michał Marczak +48 22 438 24 01 Kamil Kliszcz +48 22 438 24 02 Jakub Szkopek +48 22 438 24 03 Aleksandra Szklarczyk +48 22 438 24 04 Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05 Paweł Szpigiel +48 22 438 24 06 Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 Piotr Bogusz +48 22 438 24 08 Piotr Poniatowski +48 22 438 24 09
DJIA 25,745.6 +1.18% FTSE 100 6,147.1 +0.38% Copper (LME) 5,893.0 +0.48% S&P 500 3,083.8 +1.10% WIG20 1,793.4 +0.51% Crude Oil (Brent) 40.39 +2.36% NASDAQ 10,017.0 +1.09% BUX 37,001.9 -0.53% USD/PLN 3.9702 +0.26% DAX 12,177.9 +0.69% PX 917.8 -0.17% EUR/PLN 4.4515 -0.12% CAC 40 4,918.6 +0.97% PLBonds10 1.389 -0.006 EUR/USD 1.1218 -0.29%
Company & Sector News Banks ECB will provide liquidity for non-eurozone central banks ECB communicated that it introduced repo facility for central banks outside the eurozone. New tool’s goal is to address eventual liquidity EUR liquidity problems by allowing to borrow against EUR denominated debt issued by eurozone central governments or supranational institutions. New repo facility will be available until the end of June 2021. (M. Konarski, M. Lemańczyk)
Oil&Gas Urals crude loadings from Baltic in July to fall to 8-year low Urals loadings from Primorsk and Ust-Luga ports have been set at 2.5 million tonnes for July, down from 4.4 million tonnes planned for June, according to the preliminary loading plan seen by Reuters on Thursday. Russia’s primary offline refining capacity is expected to decrease to 1.6 million tonnes from 3 million tonnes in June and it means oil companies will have roughly 1.4 million tonnes less oil for export, traders said. Lower supplies of Urals crude are the main reason behind current negative Bren/Ural spread and it seems that the situation won’t be reversed quickly. Meanwhile expected throughput increase in Russian refineries may add pressure on already weak refining margins. (K. Kliszcz)
PGNiG Gas delivery deal with PKN Orlen Buy – 2020-06-03 PGNiG and PKN entered into an annex to the individual contract for gas fuel supplies to the Orlen Target price: PLN 4.91 Group (dated Sep2016), extending co-operation until Dec 2022 (with an option to further extension until Dec 2023). The value of the 3Y contract is estimated at PLN 5.5bn. The applied pricing formula is based on gas market price indices. Neutral. (K. Kliszcz)
Copper Codelco suspends Chuquicamata smelter on COVID cases Chile’s Codelco, the world’s biggest copper miner, said on Thursday it was suspending refinery and foundry operations at its sprawling Chuquicamata division to prevent further spread of the new coronavirus. That suggests Chile’s copper production losses could be greater than the government’s estimate of 200,000 tonnes, equivalent to 3.5% of total output, analysts at ANZ said in a note. Yesterday the Chile government said that only 1% of all miners are currently affected by COVID. The Chuquicamata trade unions demanded yesterday 2 ▲ weeks suspension after third miner in the group died on COVID. For more information please visit link. (J. Szkopek) ► Precious metals Gold on track for third weekly gain as virus cases surge Gold edged higher on Friday and was set for its third consecutive weekly gain, as coronavirus ▼ cases around the world surged and jittery investors opted for safe-haven assets. For more information please visit link. (J. Szkopek)
CCC Update of the Sustainable Development Strategy GO.22 Suspended – 2020-03-19 The Management Board of the company has upheld the objectives of the GO.22 strategy assuming a net margin of 7-8% in 2022. As part of the sustainable development strategy GO.22, the company assumes an improvement of the ESG MSCI rating by 2022 (current BBB level). The company will strive, among other things, to reduce the use of plastic, to equalize the salaries of women and men, and to introduce ecological leather products to its offer. At the same time, the company announced that the sponsorship will be limited to PLN 4-5m from PLN 70-80m a year. (P. Bogusz)
CD Projekt The majority of journalists' previews give a positive assessment of Cyberpunk Hold – 2020-06-03 2077 Target price: PLN 388.10 Gaming journalists and youtoubers have given mostly positive feedback in their preview, pointing out the huge potential of the production. At the same time, attention is drawn to a large number of potential bugs that need to be corrected. Many reviews indicate that CD Projekt's recent decision to postpone the release is correct. Below are some opinions from industry media:
▪ Andy Kelly from PC Gamer wrote that after four hours of exciting gameplay he has a great desire for more. ▪ Mateusz Zdanowicz from Eurogamer said that CD Projekt once again charms players with its production. ▪ Ian Walker from Kotaku says that Cyberpunk 2077 is "complex and overwhelming, but it
works". ▪ Łukasz Gołąbiowski from Komputer Świat believes that Cyberpunk 2077 is the most ambitious RPG of the recent years, but it requires a lot of grinding. ▪ Piotr Grabiec from Spider's Web portal thinks that although the game is very impressive, it's not without flaws. ▪ Roger Żochowski from PPE.pl assesses Cyberpunk 2077 as a diamond that still needs to be polished. ▪ Patryk "Rojo" Rojewski comments that Cyberpunk 2077 will provide the players with new gameplay mechanics that they have not had to deal with so far and did not even know that they would like such mechanics. Positive opinions of industry specialists may support performance of the CD Projekt share price. (P. Bogusz)
CD Projekt Anime Cyberpunk: Edgerunners announced Hold – 2020-06-03 CD Projekt Red, Studio Trigger and Netflix announced anime Cyberpunk: Edgerunners, a 10- Target price: PLN 388.10 episode series set in the world of Cyberpunk 2077. The best specialists in the industry will be employed to create the series and the music will be created by Akira Yamaoka (Silent Hill). The premiere of the series is planned for 2022. The creation of the anime set in the world of Cyberpunk 2077 on the Netflix platform should support the popularization of the game world. (P. Bogusz)
LPP Highlights from FY2020 Q1 Earnings Conference Call Hold – 2020-06-03 ▪ LPP expects online sales in the quarters ahead to continue growing at a triple-digit rate, the Target price: PLN 6,900.00 Company said at today's first-quarter earnings call, with total sales for the year generated by the Web stores likely to top PLN 2 billion. ▪ The e-commerce segment achieved monthly operating margins of approximately 15% in May and June after an improvement compared to year-ago levels observed in previous months. ▪ LPP is in the process of re-negotiating rental rates with retail property owners, and it hopes to finalize the talks by the end of July. The majority of brick and mortar stores should re-open for business in a matter of weeks. ▪ There are no plans for a massive "fire sale" on spring-summer collections at the shops; rather,
LPP's main focus in the coming months will be on rebuilding sales margins through smart clearance strategies and better price management. Sales margins generated in May and June were lower than in the corresponding year-ago periods. The zloty's low exchange rate vis-à-vis the dollar is adding to the downward pressure. ▪ LPP sees this year's sales declines compared to 2019 at no more than 20%. ▪ Profits in the second quarter might be weighed down by costs of German store closures of up to PLN 200m (LPP is currently negotiating rent relief with German landlords). ▪ At the same time, LPP expects to be able to recognize about PLN 50m in coronavirus relief in the period, alongside positive rent adjustments. As a reminder, LPP's financial results for the three months ended 30 April 2020 came ▪ out weak due to the coronavirus. Looking ahead, the Retailer sees continued growth in online sales combined with increasing sales profits, driven by scale and logistics cost savings. As brick-and-mortar shops slowly recover from lockdown, their performance in the periods ahead depends largely on successful rent reductions. (P. Bogusz)
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More News Aplisens Aplisens will allocate PLN 2.98 mln from the 2019 profit to dividend payout at PLN 0.25 per share, the company said in a market filing of its shareholders' decision.
Atende Atende will allocate PLN 8 mln from the 2019 profit to dividend payouts at PLN 0.22 per share, the company said in a market filing of shareholders' decision.
Banking Poland wants to facilitate issuance of debt instruments qualifying for bank, insurer and broker regulatory capital requirements and is crafting a bill to expand the list of qualifying instruments, the government's legislative published online agenda shows.
Polish banks may suffer an up to 20% income decline in 2020 and consequently shut down ca. 15% of existing branches in a move to cut costs, consultancy Kearney rep Krystian Kamyk predicts in a comment for PAP.
Cd Projekt CD Projekt recommends putting the entire 2019 profit of PLN 172.8 mln to retained earnings, the management said in a market filing.
Eurocash Eurocash bought a 56% stake in online grocer Frisco from three funds of the MCI Group for PLN 132.5 mln, the company said in a press release.
Factoring Polish factoring firms are expected to suffer a y/y decline in turnover in H1, sector lobby PZF said of its predictions.
Feerum Feerum had the value of its deal for the delivery of grain silos to Ukrainian firm Epicentr K reduced to PLN 81.9 mln from PLN 115.8 mln previously as Epicentr decided to reduce investments, the company said in a market filing. Epicentr K also backed off from another, ca. PLN 40 mln deal with Feerum, the company noted.
Getin Holding Getin Holding failed to sell the Ukrainian branch of troubled lender Idea Bank and debt collector New Finance Service as the conditional deal inked with Cyprus-based Dragon Capital in December 2019 expired, Getin said in a market filing.
Hospitality Most Polish hotels based in cities (77%) and 45% of hotels located outside cities now have their expected occupancy rates for July and August capped at 20%, hotels lobby IGHP said of its data.
Inpro Inpro will allocate PLN 6 mln from 2019 profit to dividend payout at PLN 0.15 per share, the company said in a market filing of GM's decision.
Nike Q4 2020 revenue come in USD 6.31bn vs. USD 7.38bn expected, Q4 net loss per share was at USD 0.51 vs. USD 0.10 EPS expected. The Gross Margin was at 37.3% in Q4 2020 vs. 43.5% expected. Digital sales increased 75% y/y in Q4 2020. The company suspended share buybacks in March to maximize liquidity. CFO expects sales in FY 2021 to be “plat to slightly up”.
OFE Polish OFE pension funds gained 80 bps of equity allocation in May, data from the market regulator KNF indicated.
Poland's Social Insurance Board (ZUS) transferred PLN 139.8 mln to open pension funds OFE this week, ZUS said in a statement.
PLL LOT PLL LOT will launch 130 connections to 36 most popular holiday destinations in Europe this summer, LOT announced on Wednesday.
Stalprofil Stalprofil will pay a dividend of PLN 0.07 per share, the company said in a market filing on GM's decision.
Corporate Action Calendar
Date Time Company Event 26-Jun Pozbud Q1'20 earnings announcement 29-Jun Boryszew Q1'20 earnings announcement 30-Jun 10:00 Boryszew Q1'20 earnings conference (Pałac Przeździeckich, Foksal, Warsaw) 30-Jun 11:00 11 bit studios Annual Investor Conference (https://event.webcaster.pl/live/11bit-konferencja-pl/)
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Economic Calendar
Friday, 26 June 2020 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 01:30 Japan Tokyo Area Core CPI June 0.50% y/y 01:30 Japan Tokyo Area CPI June 0.40% y/y 08:45 France Consumer Confidence Index June 93 10:00 EU M3 Money Supply May 8.30% y/y 14:30 USA Core PCE Deflator May 0% m/m; 0.90% y/y -0.40% m/m; 1.00% y/y 14:30 USA Personal Income May -7.00% m/m 10.50% m/m 14:30 USA Personal Spending May 10.50% m/m -13.60% m/m 16:00 USA University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index June 82.00 72.30 Monday, 29 June 2020 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 01:50 Japan Retail Trade May -13.70% y/y 08:00 UK Nationwide House Prices June -1.70% m/m 10:30 UK M4 Money Supply May 1.50% m/m; 9.50% y/y 10:30 UK Mortgage Approvals May 15,800 11:00 EU Consumer Confidence Index June -18.80 13:50 Japan Industrial Production (P) May -9.80% m/m; -15.00% y/y 14:00 Germany CPI Harmonized (P) June 0.00% m/m; 0.50% y/y 14:00 Germany CPI (P) June -0.10% m/m; 0.60% y/y Tuesday, 30 June 2020 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 08:00 UK Business Investment April 0.00% q/q; 1.80% y/y 08:00 UK Capital Account Balance Q1 -296m 08:00 UK Current Account Balance Q1 -5.55bn 08:00 UK GDP Q1 0.00% q/q; 1.10% y/y 08:45 France Consumer Spending May -20.20% m/m; -34.10% y/y 08:45 France PPI May -1.60% m/m; -4.70% y/y 15:00 USA S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20 April 3.90% y/y 16:00 USA Conference Board Index June 86.60 Wednesday, 1 July 2020 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 09:00 Poland PMI Manufacturing June 40.60 09:50 Germany PMI Manufacturing (F) June 36.60 09:50 France PMI Manufacturing (F) June 40.60 10:00 EU PMI Manufacturing (F) June 39.50 10:30 UK PMI Manufacturing (F) June 40.70 14:15 USA ADP Employment Change June -2.760m 16:00 USA Construction Spending May -4.50% 16:00 USA ISM Manufacturing June 43.10 Thursday, 2 July 2020 Time Region Data Period Forecast Previous 11:00 EU PPI May -2.00% m/m; -4.50% y/y 11:00 EU Unemployment Rate May 7.30% 14:30 USA Average Hourly Earnings June 29.75 14:30 USA Average Workweek Hours June 34.70 14:30 USA Exports May 151.28bn 14:30 USA Imports May 200.69bn 14:30 USA Manufacturing Payrolls Change June 225,000 m/m 14:30 USA Nonfarm Payrolls Change June 2,509,000 m/m 14:30 Japan PMI Services (F) June 26.50 14:30 USA Trade Balance May -49.41bn 14:30 USA Unemployment Rate June 13.30% 16:00 USA Factory Goods Orders May -13.50% m/m Source: Stooq
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Current Recommendations by mBank
Price At Target Current Upside/ P/E EV/EBITDA Company Recommendation Issued On Reco. Price Price Downside 2020 2021 2020 2021 Financials +37.3% 9.8 9.4 Alior Bank hold 2020-06-03 15.19 14.98 16.85 -11.1% - 10.7 Handlowy hold 2020-06-03 38.00 37.64 38.75 -2.9% 22.4 17.1 ING BSK sell 2020-06-03 145.20 117.78 146.00 -19.3% 20.8 17.7 Millennium buy 2020-06-03 2.64 3.72 3.22 +15.5% 24.7 15.1 Pekao buy 2020-06-03 52.40 68.90 54.20 +27.1% 10.8 9.9 PKO BP hold 2020-06-03 22.06 22.58 22.82 -1.1% 15.6 11.6 Santander Bank Polska accumulate 2020-06-03 163.60 179.37 184.00 -2.5% 21.0 15.1 Komercni Banka buy 2019-12-05 792.00 928.20 CZK 554.00 +67.5% 7.3 7.0 Moneta Money Bank buy 2019-08-28 75.95 94.33 CZK 54.60 +72.8% 6.8 6.7 Erste Group buy 2020-03-04 29.44 36.61 EUR 20.86 +75.5% 5.6 5.5 RBI accumulate 2019-12-05 21.24 23.05 EUR 16.40 +40.5% 4.4 4.4 OTP Bank hold 2019-12-05 14,870 14,681 HUF 11,430 +28.4% 7.2 7.0 PZU buy 2020-04-28 29.92 35.93 29.13 +23.3% 9.8 8.8 Kruk buy 2019-12-05 150.90 210.31 108.20 +94.4% 6.1 5.8 Skarbiec Holding accumulate 2020-06-03 19.05 21.20 21.40 -0.9% 8.2 8.9 GPW hold 2020-05-20 40.00 41.56 41.50 +0.1% 15.8 14.3 Chemicals +4.6% 12.6 7.5 5.9 6.8 Ciech hold 2020-05-29 39.25 38.94 31.00 +25.6% 10.4 7.5 5.6 4.4 Grupa Azoty hold 2020-04-17 28.00 28.42 31.80 -10.6% 14.9 - 6.2 9.1 Mining -31.6% 11.6 23.0 5.2 4.9 JSW sell 2020-03-27 12.85 9.78 19.19 -49.0% - - 5.1 3.2 KGHM sell 2020-06-03 88.10 62.94 89.86 -30.0% 11.6 23.0 5.4 6.7 Oil & Gas +7.1% 14.2 9.7 8.0 4.6 Lotos hold 2020-06-03 60.52 60.39 59.22 +2.0% - 8.4 26.0 4.7 MOL hold 2020-06-03 1,916 2,072 HUF 1,903 +8.9% - 11.4 7.5 5.3 PGNiG buy 2020-06-03 4.31 4.91 4.40 +11.7% 14.2 9.9 5.0 4.2 PKN Orlen hold 2020-06-03 67.80 66.85 64.62 +3.5% - 9.5 8.5 4.5 Power Utilities +5.1% 10.0 4.8 5.2 4.5 CEZ accumulate 2020-06-03 489.00 514.80 CZK 490.00 +5.1% 12.1 17.0 6.7 7.5 Enea suspended 2020-06-23 7.90 - 7.56 - 3.1 2.4 3.1 2.8 Energa suspended 2020-06-03 8.19 - 8.14 - 10.6 8.2 5.2 4.5 PGE suspended 2020-04-27 4.05 - 7.36 - 10.0 4.8 4.1 3.0 Tauron suspended 2020-05-05 1.14 - 2.59 - 6.9 3.8 5.5 4.8 Telecoms +3.5% 14.4 17.0 5.5 5.1 Cyfrowy Polsat hold 2020-04-01 23.82 24.10 27.48 -12.3% 14.4 11.8 7.5 6.9 Netia accumulate 2020-05-05 3.91 4.40 3.81 +15.5% 24.5 22.2 4.1 3.8 Orange Polska accumulate 2020-06-03 6.49 6.90 6.24 +10.6% - 31.1 5.3 4.9 Play buy 2020-05-15 31.02 35.70 29.40 +21.4% 8.0 7.9 5.7 5.4 Media -7.8% 36.2 20.9 17.5 9.3 Agora hold 2020-06-03 8.36 8.60 8.00 +7.5% - - 20.7 7.7 Wirtualna Polska reduce 2020-04-20 67.80 63.10 71.00 -11.1% 36.2 20.9 14.3 10.9 IT +4.7% 18.3 15.7 7.8 6.3 Ailleron neutral 2020-05-05 6.26 - 6.70 - 13.3 10.4 4.1 3.2 Asseco BS neutral 2020-05-05 35.80 - 33.80 - 16.8 16.1 10.8 10.2 Asseco Poland hold 2020-06-03 72.60 68.39 66.00 +3.6% 17.2 15.3 5.4 5.0 Asseco SEE overweight 2020-05-05 31.40 - 38.40 - 20.9 18.3 9.9 8.6 Atende neutral 2020-05-05 2.94 - 3.52 - 19.4 11.8 8.2 6.0 Comarch hold 2020-05-13 210.00 220.30 204.00 +8.0% 22.5 16.1 7.4 6.7 Gaming -5.4% 23.6 24.1 20.1 20.2 11 bit studios hold 2020-06-03 475.00 476.00 596.00 -20.1% 49.2 89.9 33.1 51.9 CD Projekt hold 2020-06-03 388.20 388.10 412.60 -5.9% 14.3 24.1 12.0 20.2 Ten Square Games buy 2020-06-03 505.00 592.00 570.00 +3.9% 23.6 18.2 20.1 15.1 Industrials +1.1% 13.9 11.4 6.9 6.5 AC neutral 2020-05-21 36.50 - 38.80 - 13.2 13.1 8.4 8.3 Alumetal neutral 2020-05-21 37.00 - 40.00 - 21.3 14.1 9.1 7.5 Amica neutral 2020-04-01 84.30 - 124.00 - 15.2 11.4 8.0 7.0 Apator neutral 2020-04-01 16.20 - 20.80 - 13.9 12.5 7.4 7.0 Astarta overweight 2020-05-11 11.75 - 16.40 - - 2.8 4.3 2.7 Boryszew underweight 2020-06-08 3.59 - 3.57 - 66.0 12.7 9.0 7.0 Cognor hold 2020-04-22 0.95 0.94 1.06 -11.3% 87.0 - 6.4 6.5 Famur hold 2020-04-30 2.08 2.20 2.20 +0.0% 9.2 11.8 4.1 4.2 Forte neutral 2020-05-21 17.60 - 21.00 - 15.4 11.6 8.2 7.2 Grupa Kęty hold 2020-06-25 432.00 453.70 462.00 -1.8% 17.0 16.2 10.9 10.5 Kernel hold 2020-06-03 43.80 44.58 41.40 +7.7% 9.0 6.1 5.9 5.7 Kruszwica overweight 2020-05-21 59.00 - 59.80 - 12.2 11.3 6.9 6.5 Mangata neutral 2020-04-01 50.00 - 51.00 - 13.3 9.1 7.0 5.8 PKP Cargo hold 2020-05-05 11.46 12.37 14.64 -15.5% - - 5.4 4.7 Pozbud neutral 2020-04-01 0.81 - 1.68 - 6.8 7.1 5.7 5.6 Stelmet buy 2020-04-01 6.75 9.04 8.65 +4.5% 31.5 7.1 5.2 3.4 TIM overweight 2020-04-01 9.20 - 10.90 - 12.6 10.9 6.4 5.8 Retail +3.0% 29.9 24.2 9.5 9.4 AmRest hold 2020-03-04 39.55 40.00 23.60 +69.5% 21.7 17.4 7.5 6.4 CCC suspended 2020-03-19 24.98 - 63.46 - - - - - Dino reduce 2020-06-03 185.70 155.60 198.00 -21.4% 35.0 26.2 20.7 16.2 Eurocash accumulate 2020-06-03 18.50 19.90 18.10 +9.9% - - 6.2 5.9 Jeronimo Martins hold 2020-06-03 15.46 15.30 EUR 15.78 -3.0% 29.9 24.2 9.5 8.1 LPP hold 2020-06-03 6,980.00 6,900.00 6,540.00 +5.5% - 23.7 26.3 10.7 VRG hold 2020-06-03 2.40 2.43 2.42 +0.4% - 52.2 - 11.8
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CEE bank valuations
P/E ROE P/BV DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Polish banks Alior Bank 16.85 - 10.7 5.7 -1% 3% 5% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Handlowy 38.75 22.4 17.1 12.1 3% 4% 6% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0% 6.6% 9.2% ING BSK 146.00 20.8 17.7 13.3 6% 7% 8% 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.0% 2.4% 2.8% Millennium 3.22 24.7 15.1 12.9 2% 3% 3% 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pekao 54.20 10.8 9.9 6.8 5% 6% 9% 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0% 18.4% 7.6% PKO BP 22.82 15.6 11.6 9.2 4% 6% 7% 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.0% 9.1% 9.7% Santander BP 184.00 21.0 15.1 10.9 3% 5% 6% 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0% 8.8% 9.4% Median 20.9 15.1 10.9 3% 5% 6% 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.0% 6.6% 7.6% Investors in Polish banks BCP 0.110 6.1 4.8 3.7 5% 7% 7% 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.7% 5.5% 6.4% Citigroup 52.680 16.6 8.3 6.4 3% 7% 9% 0.6 0.6 0.5 3.9% 4.1% 4.6% Commerzbank 3.960 208.4 19.8 6.9 0% 1% 3% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.9% 2.0% 3.1% ING 6.243 7.7 7.0 5.9 6% 6% 7% 0.4 0.4 0.4 5.7% 7.6% 8.3% UCI 8.053 22.5 8.8 5.5 1% 3% 5% 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.9% 4.2% 6.1% Median 16.6 8.3 5.9 3% 6% 7% 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.7% 4.2% 6.1% Foreign banks Erste Group 20.86 5.6 5.5 - 11% 10% - 0.6 0.6 - 7.2% 7.5% - Komercni Banka 554.00 7.3 7.0 - 13% 13% - 1.0 0.9 - 9.2% 9.2% - Moneta Money 54.60 6.8 6.7 - 16% 16% - 1.1 1.0 - 10.2% 11.0% - OTP Bank 11,430 7.2 7.0 - 18% 17% - 1.2 1.1 - 2.1% 4.8% - RBI 16.40 4.4 4.4 - 9% 9% - 0.4 0.4 - 6.5% 6.8% - Akbank 5.90 4.3 3.4 2.7 12% 14% 14% 0.5 0.4 0.4 4.2% 8.0% 9.3% Alpha Bank 0.68 31.0 12.8 4.5 1% 1% 4% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Banco Santander 2.19 10.6 7.1 6.1 4% 5% 5% 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.6% 6.3% 6.9% Deutsche Bank 8.51 - 47.3 11.5 -3% 0% 3% 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% National Bank of Greece 1.33 7.6 12.1 4.7 4% 2% 5% 0.2 0.2 0.2 - - - Piraeus Bank 1.62 8.8 5.3 4.1 2% 2% 4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0% 0.0% - Sberbank 206.92 7.4 5.7 4.7 15% 18% 19% 1.0 0.9 0.8 7.3% 9.5% 10.9% Turkiye Garanti Bank 8.22 4.8 3.8 3.1 15% 17% 15% 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0% 3.1% 13.5% Turkiye Halk Bank 6.29 3.7 3.0 1.5 2% 8% 14% 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3% 1.7% 5.8% Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi 5.09 3.3 2.4 1.8 12% 12% 14% 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.1% 0.6% 8.3% VTB Bank 0.04 4.0 3.2 2.7 11% 11% 11% 0.3 0.3 0.2 8.4% 8.4% 8.4% Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi 2.37 4.8 3.2 2.5 8% 10% 13% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% Median 6.2 5.5 3.6 11% 10% 12% 0.4 0.4 0.3 1.9% 5.6% 7.6%
Insurance company valuations P/E ROE P/BV DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Insurers PZU 29.13 9.8 8.8 8.1 15% 15% 15% 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.0% 8.1% 9.1% Aegon 2.70 5.2 4.5 4.1 4% 5% 5% 0.2 0.2 0.2 9.8% 10.3% 11.0% Allianz 182.48 11.6 9.2 8.4 9% 11% 11% 1.0 1.0 0.9 5.3% 5.6% 6.0% Assicurazioni Generali 13.30 9.6 8.0 7.4 7% 9% 9% 0.7 0.7 0.7 7.4% 7.8% 8.2% Aviva 2.69 5.1 4.8 4.4 11% 12% 12% 0.6 0.6 0.6 11.8% 12.2% 12.6% AXA 18.57 7.7 6.6 6.3 9% 10% 10% 0.7 0.6 0.6 7.9% 8.1% 8.4% Baloise 140.60 11.8 10.4 10.2 8% 9% 9% 1.0 0.9 0.9 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% Helvetia 86.00 10.1 8.6 8.1 7% 8% 8% 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.0% 6.3% 6.5% Mapfre 1.59 7.0 6.5 6.1 7% 7% 9% 0.6 0.5 0.5 8.9% 9.5% 9.2% RSA Insurance 4.16 9.8 8.9 8.4 11% 12% 11% 1.1 1.0 1.0 6.1% 6.9% 7.2% Uniqa 5.88 13.7 6.8 5.9 4% 8% 8% 0.6 0.6 0.5 4.8% 9.8% 9.9% Vienna Insurance G. 19.36 8.0 7.4 7.4 6% 7% 7% 0.5 0.5 0.5 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% Zurich Financial 330.60 13.2 10.8 10.5 11% 13% 13% 1.4 1.4 1.4 6.4% 6.7% 7.1% Median 9.8 8.0 7.4 8% 9% 9% 0.7 0.7 0.6 6.1% 7.8% 8.2% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
6
Gas & Oil valuations
EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Oil companies Lotos 59.22 26.0 4.7 4.1 0.8 0.7 0.6 - 8.4 7.5 3% 15% 14% 1.7% 5.1% 5.1% MOL 1903.00 7.5 5.3 4.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 - 11.4 7.1 14% 17% 18% 0.0% 3.7% 3.8% PKN Orlen 64.62 8.5 4.5 4.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 - 9.5 9.8 7% 12% 10% 1.5% 4.6% 4.8% Hellenic Petroleum 6.18 7.7 5.5 4.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 9.1 6.2 6.6 8% 9% 10% 7.6% 7.6% 8.6% HollyFrontier 29.64 10.1 6.3 4.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 - 13.8 8.8 7% 9% 9% 4.7% 4.8% 5.1% Marathon Petroleum 36.69 12.1 7.1 6.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 - 13.9 8.3 5% 8% 8% 6.3% 6.7% 7.1% Motor Oil 13.15 6.1 4.2 3.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 13.4 7.0 5.8 5% 6% 7% 7.6% 8.8% 9.4% Neste Oil 35.29 14.4 12.3 10.1 2.5 2.1 1.8 22.3 19.8 15.4 17% 17% 18% 2.6% 2.9% 3.5% OMV 29.96 5.4 4.0 3.3 1.2 1.0 0.8 16.8 7.9 5.9 21% 24% 25% 6.5% 6.8% 7.3% Phillips 66 70.07 12.4 7.1 6.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 28.5 10.6 8.4 5% 7% 6% 5.2% 5.5% 5.9% Saras SpA 0.72 2.5 2.4 2.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 15.6 9.7 9.3 4% 4% 3% 6.6% 5.9% 5.3% Tupras 88.75 8.5 5.2 4.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 42.5 7.4 5.7 6% 7% 7% 11.3% 12.3% 14.4% Valero Energy 57.28 16.3 6.6 5.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 - 14.1 8.8 3% 6% 6% 6.9% 7.0% 7.3% Median 8.5 5.3 4.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 16.8 9.7 8.3 6% 9% 9% 6.3% 5.9% 5.9% Gas companies PGNiG 4.40 5.0 4.2 3.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 14.2 9.9 8.8 16% 20% 20% 2.2% 2.8% 5.1% A2A SpA 1.25 6.6 6.3 6.0 1.2 1.1 1.0 13.5 12.8 11.7 17% 17% 17% 6.4% 6.6% 7.0% BP 308.60 6.3 4.9 3.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 - 11.5 6.3 11% 12% 13% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Centrica 38.69 3.6 3.7 3.7 0.3 0.3 0.3 7.9 5.9 5.3 7% 7% 7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Enagas 21.90 10.2 10.6 11.1 8.7 9.4 9.9 13.1 13.0 13.5 85% 89% 89% 7.7% 7.7% 7.8% Endesa 22.44 8.0 7.8 7.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 14.4 14.0 14.8 20% 20% 21% 6.9% 5.7% 4.9% Engie 10.96 6.2 5.7 5.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 12.7 10.2 9.2 16% 17% 17% 6.0% 7.3% 7.8% Eni 8.48 5.0 3.7 3.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 - 16.4 9.2 19% 22% 21% 9.1% 9.4% 9.6% Equinor 141.20 5.2 3.6 2.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 - 16.8 10.3 31% 37% 39% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Gas Natural SDG 16.15 8.0 7.6 7.7 1.5 1.5 1.4 12.4 11.2 11.4 19% 19% 19% 8.9% 9.3% 9.8% Gazprom 192.25 6.0 4.8 3.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 8.4 4.6 3.8 21% 23% 26% 5.9% 9.8% 14.3% Hera SpA 3.31 7.4 7.2 7.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 16.4 15.8 14.4 15% 15% 14% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% NovaTek 1064.00 14.9 11.6 9.7 4.6 3.9 3.6 24.2 12.3 9.6 31% 34% 37% 2.5% 3.4% 4.5% ROMGAZ 31.60 4.6 4.8 4.5 2.4 2.3 2.1 8.3 9.0 9.1 51% 48% 47% 11.1% 10.2% 9.9% Shell 14.92 4.5 3.5 2.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 32.4 12.1 7.9 14% 15% 16% 6.6% 7.9% 8.6% Snam SpA 4.22 12.2 11.9 11.4 9.9 9.7 9.4 13.0 12.4 12.2 81% 82% 83% 6.0% 6.2% 6.7% Total 35.21 7.4 5.5 4.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 29.2 15.0 9.9 15% 17% 19% 8.7% 8.9% 9.0% Median 6.3 5.5 4.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 13.3 12.3 9.6 19% 20% 20% 6.0% 6.6% 7.0%
Power generation company valuations EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Power generation CEZ 490.00 6.7 7.5 8.1 1.9 2.0 2.0 12.1 17.0 22.3 29% 27% 25% 6.9% 7.4% 5.3% Enea 7.56 3.1 2.8 - 0.6 0.6 - 3.1 2.4 - 18% 21% - 0.0% 3.2% - Energa 8.14 5.2 4.5 4.4 0.8 0.8 0.8 10.6 8.2 8.1 15% 18% 18% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% PGE 7.36 4.1 3.0 3.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 10.0 4.8 5.4 15% 21% 21% 0.0% 2.5% 5.2% Tauron 2.59 5.5 4.8 4.4 0.9 0.9 0.9 6.9 3.8 3.8 17% 19% 21% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EDF 7.92 5.0 4.7 4.5 1.1 1.1 1.1 16.8 13.8 12.0 22% 23% 24% 3.0% 3.7% 3.8% EDP 4.18 8.9 8.7 8.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 18.5 17.5 16.4 23% 23% 25% 4.6% 4.7% 5.1% Endesa 22.44 8.0 7.8 7.9 1.6 1.6 1.7 14.4 14.0 14.8 20% 20% 21% 6.9% 5.7% 4.9% Enel 7.66 7.9 7.5 7.3 1.8 1.7 1.8 15.3 14.2 13.8 22% 23% 24% 4.7% 5.0% 5.2% EON 9.79 9.4 8.9 8.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 15.5 13.7 11.3 11% 12% 12% 4.9% 5.0% 5.3% Fortum 17.08 9.8 9.4 9.9 4.2 4.3 4.5 11.7 12.4 13.0 43% 46% 45% 6.4% 6.2% 6.2% Iberdola 10.11 10.8 10.1 9.5 3.0 2.9 2.8 18.3 17.2 16.2 28% 29% 29% 4.1% 4.3% 4.6% National Grid 973.20 11.9 11.4 11.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 16.4 16.1 16.3 34% 34% 35% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Red Electrica 17.19 9.8 9.8 9.5 7.6 7.6 7.4 14.1 14.2 13.7 77% 78% 78% 6.0% 5.9% 6.0% RWE 32.19 8.3 7.4 7.2 1.6 1.5 1.4 20.1 16.6 16.5 19% 20% 20% 2.7% 2.9% 3.1% SSE 1360.50 12.2 11.7 11.5 3.0 3.1 3.1 16.4 15.0 15.2 25% 27% 26% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Verbund 38.56 7.2 7.2 7.0 2.4 2.4 2.3 24.2 25.2 23.8 33% 33% 32% 2.0% 2.0% 2.4% Median 8.0 7.5 8.0 1.8 1.7 1.9 15.3 14.2 14.3 22% 23% 24% 3.0% 3.7% 4.7%
Machine and equipment manufacturers EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Industrials Famur 2.20 4.1 4.2 4.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 9.2 11.8 11.0 28% 27% 27% 0.0% 5.4% 6.4% Caterpillar 124.71 13.3 11.4 10.2 2.0 1.9 1.7 25.5 17.9 13.7 15% 17% 17% 3.4% 3.7% 4.0% Epiroc 114.85 10.3 9.4 8.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 27.1 24.0 21.4 24% 25% 26% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% Komatsu 2136.50 6.7 7.3 6.6 1.1 1.2 1.1 11.2 12.7 11.4 17% 16% 17% 5.1% 4.6% 4.9% Sandvig AG 167.00 12.2 9.5 8.7 2.4 2.2 2.1 23.1 17.0 15.1 19% 23% 24% 2.3% 2.7% 3.0% Median 10.3 9.4 8.6 2.0 1.9 1.7 23.1 17.0 13.7 19% 23% 24% 2.3% 3.7% 4.0% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
7
Fertilizer producers and chemical companies
EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Fertilizer producers Grupa Azoty 31.80 6.2 9.1 9.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 14.9 - - 13% 9% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Acron 5490.00 7.4 6.4 6.8 2.3 2.1 2.0 13.6 8.5 9.1 32% 33% 30% 7.0% 6.5% 6.4% CF Industries 27.54 8.4 8.4 7.8 2.9 2.8 2.6 18.0 15.8 12.0 34% 33% 34% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% K+S 5.77 8.8 6.6 5.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 - 15.5 7.4 13% 16% 18% 2.1% 3.2% 5.6% Phosagro 2630.00 6.3 5.5 5.5 2.0 1.8 1.7 11.4 7.4 6.5 31% 33% 31% 5.4% 9.7% 8.7% The Mosaic Company 12.31 8.1 5.8 4.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 67.3 13.8 8.0 14% 18% 20% 1.6% 1.6% 2.1% Yara International 343.70 5.7 5.3 5.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 11.0 9.3 8.7 18% 18% 18% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ZCh Puławy 96.40 2.4 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 - - - 16% 17% 16% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Median 6.8 6.1 5.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 14.3 11.6 8.4 17% 18% 19% 2.3% 2.9% 3.5% Chemical companies Ciech 31.00 5.6 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 10.4 7.5 6.9 19% 20% 20% 0.0% 2.9% 6.6% Akzo Nobel 78.44 13.4 11.5 10.7 2.0 1.9 1.8 25.2 19.7 18.2 15% 16% 17% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% BASF 49.70 8.3 7.1 6.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 19.1 13.5 11.5 13% 14% 15% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7% Croda 5214.00 18.0 16.6 15.7 5.4 5.1 4.9 29.0 26.5 24.7 30% 31% 31% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Sisecam 5.40 4.0 3.3 2.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 6.3 5.7 5.3 20% 21% 22% 4.5% 4.9% 6.5% Soda Sanayii 6.09 5.5 4.7 - 1.3 1.2 - - - - 24% 24% - - - - Solvay 70.60 5.6 5.3 5.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 12.0 10.6 9.8 21% 21% 21% 5.3% 5.2% 5.4% Tata Chemicals 317.30 4.9 4.8 4.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 8.0 8.0 7.2 20% 19% 20% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% Tessenderlo Chemie 26.55 5.3 5.2 4.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 12.1 13.2 10.2 15% 15% 16% - - - Wacker Chemie 60.40 7.5 5.5 4.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 - 19.4 13.2 11% 14% 16% 1.1% 2.2% 3.6% Median 5.6 5.3 4.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 12.1 13.2 10.2 19% 20% 20% 2.9% 3.1% 4.5%
Mining company valuations EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Metals KGHM 89.86 5.4 6.7 5.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 11.6 23.0 12.0 20% 17% 20% 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% Anglo American 1841.80 5.3 4.6 4.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 12.6 9.6 10.2 31% 32% 31% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Antofagasta 919.60 9.1 6.2 5.9 3.6 3.0 2.9 - 24.8 21.3 40% 49% 50% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BHP Group LTD 35.05 4.0 4.5 4.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 13.4 16.3 15.5 52% 49% 49% 2.4% 2.2% 2.3% Boliden 202.80 4.9 4.6 4.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 11.9 9.9 9.3 24% 24% 25% 3.7% 5.2% 5.5% First Quantum 10.01 7.8 6.4 5.8 2.9 2.5 2.4 - 54.0 19.7 37% 40% 42% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Freeport-McMoRan 11.08 15.7 6.0 5.2 2.7 2.0 1.8 - 11.9 8.9 17% 33% 35% 0.6% 1.4% 1.8% Fresnillo 819.00 9.7 7.4 7.2 3.7 3.3 3.3 42.2 24.5 24.0 38% 44% 46% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gold Fields 15336.00 5.5 4.4 4.8 2.7 2.4 2.4 20.7 12.0 11.6 49% 55% 50% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Hudbay Min 3.97 7.7 4.1 2.9 1.5 1.2 1.2 - - 8.0 20% 30% 41% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% KAZ Minerals 477.20 6.5 5.8 4.9 3.1 2.9 2.4 9.2 7.4 5.5 48% 50% 49% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Lundin Min 6.86 7.1 4.3 3.8 2.2 1.8 1.7 - 12.2 9.5 31% 42% 44% 1.3% 1.4% 1.7% MMC Norilsk Nickel 28.44 6.0 6.3 6.5 3.7 3.7 3.7 8.4 8.7 9.5 61% 59% 57% 10.8% 11.4% 10.7% OZ Minerals 10.61 9.1 5.6 4.8 3.1 2.4 2.3 33.9 13.5 11.1 35% 43% 47% 1.3% 1.8% 2.3% Polymetal Intl 1540.00 7.9 7.5 7.2 4.2 4.0 3.7 11.6 10.9 10.0 53% 53% 51% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Polyus 11673.00 8.0 7.1 6.7 5.5 4.9 4.6 10.8 9.1 8.4 69% 70% 69% 4.4% 4.6% 5.4% Sandfire Resources 4.84 1.9 1.8 2.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 12.0 7.9 9.5 49% 51% 51% 2.7% 3.0% 2.5% Southern CC 38.32 13.4 10.2 9.2 5.4 4.8 4.5 32.7 21.0 18.0 41% 47% 49% 3.1% 3.7% 4.1% Median 7.4 5.9 5.0 2.8 2.4 2.3 12.0 12.0 10.1 39% 45% 48% 0.4% 1.4% 1.7% EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Coal JSW 19.19 5.1 3.2 3.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 - - - 8% 11% 11% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Alliance Res Partners 3.57 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 - 6.2 9.2 23% 25% 29% 11.2% 22.4% - Arch Coal 30.17 5.3 2.3 1.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 - 3.3 2.4 8% 16% 18% 1.7% 5.0% 5.0% Banpu 6.10 13.4 11.0 9.4 2.1 2.0 1.9 26.0 11.9 10.4 16% 19% 20% 5.5% 6.4% 6.4% BHP Group 49.39 4.1 4.5 4.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 13.7 16.6 15.9 52% 49% 49% 4.9% 4.5% 4.8% China Coal Energy 1.82 4.7 4.6 4.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 4.6 4.4 4.1 17% 17% 17% 5.1% 5.4% 5.3% LW Bogdanka 22.80 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.2 4.8 8.7 24.3 31% 26% 26% 6.1% 3.1% 3.1% Peabody Energy Corp 3.10 4.7 2.5 2.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 - - - 7% 11% 12% - 19.4% 12.9% PT Bukit Asam Tbk 2060.00 3.7 3.6 3.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 6.8 6.3 6.4 25% 24% 22% 11.8% 10.3% 9.8% Rio Tinto 4530.50 4.7 5.0 5.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 11.6 12.9 13.8 45% 44% 42% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Semirara Mining&Power 12.50 3.6 3.2 3.2 1.6 1.4 1.5 6.2 5.3 5.6 44% 46% 46% 9.5% 9.6% 9.7% Shanxi Xishan Coal&Ele 3.73 3.3 3.4 3.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 - - - 14% 13% 14% 2.4% 2.4% 2.6% Shougang Fushan Res 1.66 5.4 4.9 5.3 2.6 2.4 2.4 7.9 7.4 8.3 49% 49% 46% 8.6% 9.2% 7.8% Stanmore Coal 0.79 1.8 2.3 1.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 4.7 7.1 3.1 23% 19% 30% 6.7% 5.3% 9.9% Teck Resources 10.44 5.8 3.9 3.6 1.6 1.3 1.2 20.3 6.9 6.6 27% 35% 34% 2.8% 2.7% 4.5% Terracom 0.15 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 5.2 3.9 2.9 13% 19% 16% 7.3% 12.7% 12.7% Warrior Met Coal 15.51 4.3 2.9 3.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 11.2 5.2 5.8 25% 30% 29% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% Yanzhou Coal Mining 5.89 4.6 4.5 4.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 3.9 3.7 3.6 18% 18% 16% 7.6% 7.9% 8.5% Median 4.4 3.3 3.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 6.8 6.3 6.4 23% 22% 24% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
8
European telecom valuations
EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Polish companies Netia 3.81 4.1 3.8 3.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 24.5 22.2 21.3 34% 34% 34% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Orange Polska 6.24 5.3 4.9 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 - 31.1 19.4 28% 29% 30% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% Play 29.40 5.7 5.4 5.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 8.0 7.9 7.9 35% 36% 36% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6% Median 5.3 4.9 4.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 16.3 22.2 19.4 34% 34% 34% 0% 4.0% 4.0% Mid Caps Proximus 18.71 4.7 4.7 4.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 11.7 11.8 11.9 33% 34% 34% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% Telefonica CP 219.50 6.4 6.5 6.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 12.7 13.5 12.5 32% 31% 31% 9.6% 9.2% 9.1% Hellenic Telekom 11.86 4.7 4.6 4.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 14.5 12.2 11.2 36% 37% 37% 5.3% 5.8% 6.5% Matav 390.00 3.5 3.5 3.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 10.0 10.5 10.6 33% 33% 33% 6.2% 6.6% 7.2% Telecom Austria 6.13 5.0 4.9 4.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 10.5 9.8 9.0 33% 34% 34% 3.8% 4.0% 5.0% Median 4.7 4.7 4.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 11.7 11.8 11.2 33% 34% 34% 6.2% 6.4% 6.5% Big Caps BT 117.60 3.7 3.9 3.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 5.1 5.6 5.6 35% 35% 35% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DT 14.81 5.4 5.1 5.0 1.9 1.7 1.8 14.9 13.4 11.5 34% 33% 35% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% KPN 2.35 6.7 6.6 6.4 3.0 3.0 3.0 20.1 17.0 15.7 45% 46% 47% 5.7% 6.0% 6.3% Orange France 10.39 4.5 4.4 4.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 10.0 9.4 8.5 30% 31% 31% 6.6% 7.0% 7.2% Swisscom 496.80 8.0 8.0 7.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 18.2 17.8 17.3 38% 38% 39% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% Telefonica S.A. 4.30 4.8 4.8 4.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 7.8 7.5 6.7 34% 35% 35% 9.1% 9.1% 8.9% Telia Company 35.10 7.8 7.5 7.4 2.6 2.5 2.5 18.1 15.2 14.1 33% 34% 34% 5.7% 6.0% 6.1% TI 0.37 4.3 4.3 4.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 7.6 6.9 6.6 42% 43% 42% 2.5% 2.5% 37.3% Median 5.1 5.0 4.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 12.4 11.4 10.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
Media company valuations EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Polish companies Agora 8.00 20.7 7.7 6.1 1.3 1.1 1.0 - - - 6% 14% 16% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% Wirtualna Polska 71.00 14.3 10.9 9.6 4.1 3.3 2.9 36.2 20.9 17.4 28% 30% 30% 1.4% 1.4% 2.4% Median 17.5 9.3 7.8 2.7 2.2 1.9 36.2 20.9 17.4 17% 22% 23% 0.7% 0.7% 4.3% Daily Mail Arnolgo Mondadori 1.00 3.8 3.5 4.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 8.5 7.3 8.3 11% 11% 10% 6.3% 2.6% 4.2% Axel Springer 54.49 10.3 9.4 - 2.0 1.9 - 25.7 22.6 - 20% 21% - 4.1% 4.3% - Daily Mail 700.00 8.9 6.9 6.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 26.3 18.9 16.9 11% 13% 14% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Gruppo Editorial 0.46 5.8 6.2 - 0.5 0.5 - 18.4 - - 9% 9% - 3.9% 3.9% - New York Times 42.42 44.0 32.0 23.8 3.9 3.6 3.4 - 52.0 46.5 9% 11% 14% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Promotora de Inform 0.50 6.2 6.3 5.9 1.4 1.4 1.3 10.0 20.0 - 23% 22% 23% 0.0% - - Median 7.5 6.6 6.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 18.4 20.0 16.9 11% 12% 14% 2.2% 2.6% 0.7% TV Atresmedia Corp 2.31 7.7 5.6 5.2 0.8 0.8 0.8 9.8 6.4 5.9 11% 14% 15% 7.2% 12.6% 13.5% Gestevision Telecinco 3.19 6.0 5.1 5.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 7.7 6.4 6.0 21% 24% 24% 8.1% 10.0% 10.9% ITV PLC 72.48 7.2 6.0 5.6 1.3 1.2 1.2 8.2 6.8 6.4 18% 20% 21% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% M6-Metropole Tel 9.83 4.8 4.2 3.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 11.1 8.7 7.8 21% 23% 24% 6.2% 8.5% 9.3% Mediaset SPA 1.58 16.4 10.7 8.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 27.3 12.1 10.0 9% 13% 16% 0.6% 5.0% 6.5% Prosieben 10.09 6.9 5.9 5.6 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.9 6.9 6.3 18% 19% 20% 4.3% 7.0% 7.9% TF1-TV Francaise 4.76 3.3 2.7 2.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 15.4 8.8 8.6 16% 19% 19% 4.1% 7.1% 8.3% Median 6.9 5.6 5.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 9.9 6.9 6.4 18% 19% 20% 4.3% 7.1% 8.3% Pay TV Cogeco 98.68 5.5 5.4 5.3 2.6 2.6 2.5 13.1 12.9 14.7 48% 48% 47% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8% Comcast 38.57 9.2 8.2 7.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 16.4 13.3 11.2 28% 30% 31% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% Dish Network 33.87 8.8 9.2 10.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 16.7 17.8 22.3 19% 18% 16% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Liberty Global 21.83 5.1 5.2 5.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 - - - 40% 40% 40% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Shaw Communications 16.47 7.1 7.0 6.8 3.1 3.1 3.0 18.1 17.4 17.5 44% 44% 45% 9.9% 9.9% 10.3% Median 7.1 7.0 6.8 2.6 2.4 2.3 16.5 15.3 16.1 40% 40% 40% 2.1% 2.6% 2.8%
IT company valuations EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Polish companies Asseco Poland 66.00 5.4 5.0 4.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 17.2 15.3 14.1 15% 16% 16% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% Comarch 204.00 7.4 6.7 6.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 22.5 16.1 15.4 15% 15% 14% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Median 6.4 5.8 5.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 19.8 15.7 14.7 15% 15% 15% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% Foreign companies Atos Origin 74.78 5.5 5.2 4.9 0.7 0.7 0.7 10.8 9.7 8.9 13% 14% 15% 1.8% 2.1% 2.3% CapGemini 102.05 9.9 8.9 8.2 1.4 1.3 1.3 16.0 13.7 12.0 14% 15% 15% 1.7% 2.0% 2.3% IBM 119.03 9.2 8.5 9.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 10.6 9.6 9.0 23% 25% 22% 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% Indra Sistemas 6.94 5.2 4.7 4.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 9.8 8.0 7.1 10% 11% 11% 1.7% 2.7% 2.6% Microsoft 200.34 22.3 20.4 17.9 10.3 9.3 8.3 35.3 32.3 28.2 46% 46% 46% 1.0% 1.1% 1.2% Oracle 54.53 10.4 10.3 10.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 14.1 13.2 12.4 48% 48% 48% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% SAP 122.54 17.1 15.1 13.5 5.6 5.2 4.8 24.5 21.4 19.0 33% 35% 36% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% TietoEVRY 23.94 9.6 8.4 7.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 13.7 11.5 10.3 14% 16% 17% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% Median 9.8 8.7 8.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 13.9 12.3 11.1 19% 20% 19% 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
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Gaming company valuations
EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Gaming 11 bit studios 596.00 33.1 51.9 8.8 17.0 20.0 6.4 49.2 - 11.7 51% 39% 73% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% CD Projekt 412.60 12.0 20.2 34.0 10.3 16.0 24.6 14.3 24.1 40.6 86% 79% 72% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% Ten Square Games 570.00 20.1 15.1 13.2 6.8 5.0 4.4 23.6 18.2 16.3 34% 33% 33% 0.6% 3.2% 4.1% PlayWay 503.00 - - 18.6 - - 14.3 - - - - - 77% - - - Activision Blizzars 76.21 19.6 17.3 15.1 7.6 7.1 6.5 28.4 25.5 22.2 39% 41% 43% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% Capcom 4005.00 18.1 15.7 14.7 6.1 5.1 4.8 27.6 24.4 22.5 33% 32% 33% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% Take Two 140.40 20.1 22.2 15.4 4.7 5.0 3.8 29.8 32.9 23.7 23% 23% 25% - - - Ubisoft 70.26 13.2 7.9 6.9 5.8 3.5 3.3 - 23.0 20.8 44% 44% 48% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Electronic Arts 130.74 19.1 17.4 15.6 6.5 6.1 5.7 28.0 26.3 23.0 34% 35% 36% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Paradox Interactive 198.20 20.5 17.9 15.8 11.9 10.6 9.3 42.9 36.7 32.5 58% 59% 59% 0.6% 0.6% 0.7% Mediana 19.6 17.4 15.2 6.8 6.1 6.1 28.2 25.0 22.5 39% 39% 46% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
Steam Global Top Sellers D/D W/W 1-week Price D/D W/W 1-week 2020-06-26 Company Position change change average (PLN) change change average Frostpunk 11 bit studios 299 +386 - 569 44 -60% - 96.80 Frostpunk: SP 11 bit studios 1000+ - - 512 - - - 88.00 Frostpunk: GOTY 11 bit studios 476 +428 - 721 112 -37% - 156.00 Blair Witch Bloober Team 1000+ ------Cyberpunk 2077 CD Projekt 8 +57 +32 75 199 0% 0% 199.00 The Witcher 3: WH CD Projekt 146 +364 +3 315 30 -70% -70% 90.00 The Witcher 3: WH (GOTY) CD Projekt 16 +177 +95 167 45 -70% -70% 135.00 Green Hell Creepy Jar 68 -47 -1 29 72 0% -20% 72.00 House Flipper - HGTV DLC PlayWay 1000+ - - 600 - - - 36.00 Dying Light Techland 238 +175 +141 347 34 -66% -66% 90.57
Steam Wishlist D/D W/W 1-week Release 2020-06-26 Company Position change change average date Cyberpunk 2077 CD Projekt 1 - - 1 2020-11-19 Alaskan Truck Simulator Movie Games 63 -1 -3 62 2020 Bum Simulator PlayWay 53 - - 52 2020 I am Your President PlayWay 82 - - 83 TBA Junkyard Simulator PlayWay 67 -1 -4 66 2020 Builders of Egypt PlayWay 36 - +7 37 Q1 2021 Mr. Prepper PlayWay 50 - +14 54 TBA Dying Light 2 Techland 2 - - 2 2020 Source: Steam (Valve Corporation), Biuro maklerskie mBanku
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Construction company valuations
EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Construction Acciona 88.55 9.0 7.9 7.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 19.4 16.1 14.1 19% 18% 18% 3.8% 4.2% 4.4% Budimex 227.50 9.1 7.9 7.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 23.1 17.8 12.8 6% 7% 7% 2.9% 3.1% 5.7% Ferrovial 24.60 46.7 37.0 32.5 4.2 3.9 3.8 - 48.9 42.2 9% 11% 12% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% Hochtief 77.10 3.3 3.0 2.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 10.2 8.1 7.4 7% 7% 7% 5.5% 7.4% 7.6% Mota Engil 1.16 4.1 3.7 - 0.6 0.6 - 5.0 2.6 - 14% 15% - 4.3% 9.1% - NCC 145.40 5.3 5.0 4.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 11.4 10.3 9.9 5% 5% 5% 3.8% 4.6% 5.3% Skanska 181.35 7.6 7.5 6.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 12.4 12.6 11.4 5% 5% 6% 3.5% 3.9% 4.4% Strabag 23.55 2.1 2.1 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 7.9 7.7 6.9 7% 7% 7% 4.8% 5.1% 5.8% Median 6.5 6.3 6.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 7% 7% 7% 3.8% 4.4% 5.3%
Real-estate developers EV/EBITDA P/BV P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 RE Developers Develia 2.00 7.4 3.4 - 0.6 0.6 - 11.8 4.7 - 28% 30% - 20.0% 15.0% - Echo Investment 3.89 4.1 - - 0.4 0.4 - - - - 52% - - 13.1% 13.6% - GTC 7.00 12.6 11.4 15.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 31.4 7.7 9.8 85% 84% 64% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% CA Immobilien Anlagen 29.70 25.3 22.3 19.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 20.7 18.1 15.1 74% 76% - 3.6% 3.8% 4.6% Deutsche Euroshop AG 12.68 12.9 11.9 13.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 6.7 6.1 5.8 88% 88% 83% 8.9% 9.5% 9.0% Immofinanz AG 14.90 22.0 20.8 21.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 12.7 11.5 10.1 52% 53% 48% 6.3% 6.9% 7.3% Klepierre 17.52 28.5 19.5 17.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 7.5 6.6 6.4 56% 76% 83% 11.7% 11.3% 11.5% Segro 880.80 39.1 35.9 31.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 36.2 32.9 30.5 82% 85% 90% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median 17.4 19.5 18.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 12.7 7.7 9.9 65% 76% 83% 7.6% 8.2% 6.0% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
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Clothing and footwear company valuations
EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Polish companies CCC 63.46 ------LPP 6540.00 26.3 10.7 8.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 - 23.7 18.1 6% 11% 12% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% VRG 2.42 - 11.8 7.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 - 52.2 12.3 1% 5% 8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median 26.3 11.2 7.7 1.1 0.9 0.8 - 37.9 15.2 3% 8% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Foreign companies ABC Mart 6410.00 7.8 10.7 7.9 1.4 1.6 1.3 17.6 25.2 17.9 18% 15% 17% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% Adidas 238.00 24.1 13.9 12.0 2.4 2.0 1.9 63.5 26.6 21.9 10% 15% 16% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% Assoc Brit Foods 1898.00 8.7 7.0 6.2 1.0 0.9 0.9 22.6 15.4 13.4 12% 13% 15% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Caleries 7.97 3.6 5.7 3.7 0.2 0.3 0.3 3.6 8.7 3.9 7% 5% 7% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Crocs 34.50 21.9 15.2 14.9 2.3 2.0 1.9 44.4 22.9 19.3 10% 13% 13% - - - Foot Locker 29.35 2.7 4.6 3.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 6.0 14.1 7.6 11% 8% 10% 5.1% 5.5% 5.8% Geox 0.74 7.7 3.7 4.8 0.5 0.5 0.4 - - - 6% 12% 9% 0.0% 1.8% - H&M 145.05 10.2 7.1 6.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 60.1 20.2 17.2 11% 14% 14% 5.5% 5.7% 6.0% Hugo Boss 26.50 5.2 4.0 3.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 29.6 12.5 10.2 17% 20% 21% 4.7% 6.6% 7.9% Inditex 24.00 9.3 12.0 9.7 2.6 3.0 2.6 19.6 29.5 20.7 28% 25% 27% 4.5% 3.1% 4.0% Lululemon 295.13 34.9 37.2 28.6 9.0 8.8 7.3 60.3 64.5 49.1 26% 24% 26% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nike 101.40 25.4 22.3 18.4 3.2 3.0 2.7 43.5 37.7 30.3 13% 13% 15% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% Under Armour 9.60 35.1 5.5 3.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 - 57.5 25.7 1% 6% 9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median 9.3 7.1 6.7 1.1 1.0 1.0 29.6 24.0 18.6 11% 13% 15% 2.0% 2.2% 2.7%
Luxury, e-commerce, and food retail company valuations EV/EBITDA EV/S P/E EBITDA margin DY Price 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 Luxury goods Estee Lauder 186.95 15.4 13.2 11.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 41.4 35.0 30.8 20% 21% 22% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1% Hermes Internetional 736.00 30.7 24.7 22.3 11.3 9.7 8.8 58.9 46.1 41.0 37% 39% 39% 0.6% 0.9% 0.9% Kering 474.90 13.7 11.1 10.1 4.4 3.8 3.5 24.9 18.8 16.8 32% 34% 35% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% LVMH 383.85 17.5 13.8 12.8 4.3 3.7 3.5 35.1 25.7 22.7 25% 27% 27% 1.4% 1.8% 2.0% Moncler 34.39 15.7 12.5 11.2 5.5 4.7 4.3 32.8 25.3 22.1 35% 38% 38% 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% Median 15.7 13.2 11.8 4.4 3.8 3.5 35.1 25.7 22.7 32% 34% 35% 1.1% 1.5% 1.8% E-commerce Asos 3330.00 33.3 17.8 13.9 1.2 1.0 0.9 - 63.1 39.5 3% 6% 6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% boohoo.com 410.00 37.0 34.5 25.7 3.7 3.1 2.5 - 68.3 48.8 10% 9% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Zalando 63.58 44.6 29.9 24.3 2.2 1.8 1.6 - - - 5% 6% 6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Median 37.0 29.9 24.3 2.2 1.8 1.6 - 65.7 44.1 5% 6% 6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Retail Dino 198.00 20.7 16.2 13.0 2.0 1.6 1.2 35.0 26.2 21.4 10% 10% 10% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Eurocash 18.10 6.2 5.9 5.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 - - 48.2 2% 2% 2% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% Jeronimo Martins 15.78 9.5 8.1 7.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 29.9 24.2 22.8 5% 6% 6% 1.7% 2.1% 2.2% Carrefour 14.28 4.2 4.0 3.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 11.7 10.6 9.8 6% 6% 6% 3.3% 3.9% 4.4% AXFood 203.20 10.2 10.1 9.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 24.1 23.8 23.9 9% 9% 9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% Tesco 226.40 7.0 7.3 7.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 13.2 13.6 12.4 8% 8% 8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Ahold 23.91 5.9 5.8 5.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 12.9 12.6 11.8 8% 8% 8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.9% X 5 Retail 2419.00 5.3 4.8 5.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 24.1 18.0 15.1 12% 12% 11% 4.8% 5.1% 5.6% Magnit 4140.50 5.6 5.6 5.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 19.5 16.1 13.8 11% 11% 9% 7.6% 7.0% 6.7% Sonae 0.64 6.8 6.5 - 0.7 0.7 - 7.2 7.9 21.2 11% 11% - 7.7% 7.9% - Median 6.5 6.2 5.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 19.5 16.1 18.1 9% 8% 8% 3.4% 3.6% 3.6% Source: mBank (stocks marked with bold), Bloomberg
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WIG sector index performance 2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200 2020-03-30 2020-04-13 2020-04-27 2020-05-11 2020-05-25 2020-06-08 2020-06-22
WIG20 WIG Construction WIG Banks WIG Real Estate WIG Media
WIG IT vs. MSCI Europe Software & Services (USD) OTP and KOMB vs. WIG Banks (EUR) 240 2750 MSCI Eur S&S WIG IT relative 200 2250
160 1750
120 1250 WIG Banks OTP relative Komercni relative 80 750 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25
Brent price and Brent/NWE 3:2:1 crack spread (USD, rhs) Orange Polska vs. BETELES (EUR) 45 15 170 Brent (lhs; USD/Bbl) BETELES Index Margin Brent/NWE 3:2:1 Orange Polska relative 40 10 150
35 5 130
30 0 110
25 -5 90 2020-04-02 2020-04-30 2020-05-28 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25
LME copper prices KGHM vs. sector (USD) 6500 300
U SD/t
6000 250
5500 200
5000 150 Mining & Metal 3M KGHM relative 4500 100 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 Source: Bloomberg
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Global Market Overview Index Date Open Maximum Minimum Close Change DJIA 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 2 5 ,3 6 5 .2 2 2 5 ,7 6 9 .6 1 2 5 ,2 0 9 .7 9 2 5 ,7 4 5 .6 0 +1 .1 8 % S&P 5 0 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 3 ,0 4 6 .6 0 3 ,0 8 6 .2 5 3 ,0 2 4 .0 1 3 ,0 8 3 .7 6 +1 .1 0 % NASDAQ 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 9 ,8 9 9 .3 6 1 0 ,0 2 3 .2 8 9 ,8 1 0 .4 7 1 0 ,0 1 7 .0 0 +1 .0 9 % DAX 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 2 ,1 0 2 .2 5 1 2 ,2 3 6 .4 6 1 1 ,9 5 7 .3 1 1 2 ,1 7 7 .8 7 +0 .6 9 % C A C 4 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 4 ,8 6 0 .1 6 4 ,9 4 1 .9 6 4 ,7 9 5 .0 5 4 ,9 1 8 .5 8 +0 .9 7 % FT SE 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 6 ,1 2 3 .6 9 6 ,1 6 2 .4 4 6 ,0 2 9 .2 5 6 ,1 4 7 .1 4 +0 .3 8 % WI G2 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 ,7 8 1 .8 4 1 ,7 9 8 .8 0 1 ,7 5 9 .2 1 1 ,7 9 3 .3 6 +0 .5 1 % BUX 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 3 7 ,1 9 9 .4 6 3 7 ,2 1 7 .5 8 3 6 ,7 1 6 .4 8 3 7 ,0 0 1 .9 4 -0 .5 3 % PX 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 9 1 5 .5 7 9 2 1 .0 3 9 0 4 .3 8 9 1 7 .7 9 -0 .1 7 % RTS 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 ,7 1 8 .6 3 1 ,7 1 8 .6 3 1 ,6 7 4 .7 0 1 ,7 0 1 .9 4 -2 .4 5 % SOFIX 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 4 5 5 .2 4 4 5 7 .9 4 4 5 2 .7 2 4 5 6 .0 2 +0 .1 7 % BET 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 8 ,6 4 4 .0 3 8 ,6 6 0 .7 5 8 ,5 4 4 .5 1 8 ,5 5 9 .1 4 -0 .9 8 % XU 1 0 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 1 4 ,3 9 2 .0 0 1 1 4 ,9 7 5 .2 0 1 1 3 ,4 1 9 .6 0 1 1 4 ,1 3 9 .0 0 -0 .2 7 % BETELES 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 1 1 .9 9 1 1 3 .2 3 1 1 0 .8 6 1 1 3 .0 3 +0 .9 9 % NIKKEI 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 2 2 ,2 8 7 .8 7 2 2 ,4 2 3 .4 1 2 2 ,1 6 5 .1 4 2 2 ,2 5 9 .7 9 -1 .2 2 % SHCOMP 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 4 2 ,9 7 2 .9 8 2 ,9 8 2 .9 4 2 ,9 7 1 .2 2 2 ,9 7 9 .5 5 +0 .3 0 % Copper (LME) 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 5 ,8 7 3 .0 0 5 ,9 4 3 .5 0 5 ,8 5 2 .0 0 5 ,8 9 3 .0 0 +0 .4 8 % Crude O il (Brent) 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 3 9 .5 7 4 0 .5 9 3 8 .6 6 4 0 .3 9 +2 .3 6 % U SD/P LN 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 3 .9 5 9 9 3 .9 9 2 8 3 .9 5 7 1 3 .9 7 0 2 +0 .2 6 % E U R/P LN 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 4 .4 5 5 3 4 .4 7 2 5 4 .4 4 7 5 4 .4 5 1 5 -0 .1 2 % E U R/U SD 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 .1 2 5 1 1 .1 2 6 0 1 .1 1 9 1 1 .1 2 1 8 -0 .2 9 % U SBonds 1 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 0 .6 7 0 8 0 .6 8 7 2 0 .6 5 4 4 0 .6 8 5 6 +0 .0 0 6 6 GRBonds 1 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 -0 .4 4 5 0 -0 .4 4 5 0 -0 .4 7 9 0 -0 .4 6 8 0 -0 .0 2 8 0 P LBonds 1 0 2 0 2 0 -0 6 -2 5 1 .3 8 2 0 1 .3 9 4 0 1 .3 6 6 0 1 .3 8 9 0 -0 .0 0 6 0
WIG20 Index BUX Index PX Index 2400 47500 1200
2100 42500 1050
1800 37500 900
1500 32500 750
1200 27500 600 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25
S&P 500 (SPX Index) NASDAQ (CCMP Index) DOW JONES (INDU Index) 3750 10250 30000
3250 9250 27000
2750 8250 24000
2250 7250 21000
1750 6250 18000 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 DAX Index FTSE 100 (UKX Index) 14000 7750
12500 7000
11000 6250
9500 5500
8000 4750 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 Source: Bloomberg
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CAC 40 Index SOFIX Index BET Index 6500 650 11000
600 10000 5750
550 9000 5000 500 8000
4250 450 7000
3500 400 6000 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 RTS (CRTX Index) XU100 Index 2600 130k
2200 115k
1800 100k
1400 85k
1000 70k 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 NIKKEI (NKY Index) SHCOMP Index Polish 10Y Yield 25000 3500 2.6
22500 3250 2.2
20000 3000 1.8
17500 2750 1.4
15000 2500 1.0 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25
German 10Y Yield US 10Y Yield 0.00 2.25
-0.25 1.75
-0.50 1.25
-0.75 0.75
-1.00 0.25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 4.75 1.15 EUR/PLN USD/PLN 4.50 1.13
4.25 1.11 4.00
1.09 3.75 EUR/USD
3.50 1.07 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 2019-06-28 2019-10-27 2020-02-25 2020-06-25 Source: Bloomberg 15
List of abbreviations and ratios contained in the report: EV – net debt + market value (EV – economic value) EBIT – Earnings Before Interest and Taxes EBITDA – EBIT + Depreciation and Amortisation PBA – Profit on Banking Activity P/CE – price to earnings with amortisation MC/S – market capitalisation to sales EBIT/EV – operating profit to economic value P/E – (Price/Earnings) – price divided by annual net profit per share ROE – (Return on Equity) – annual net profit divided by average equity P/BV – (Price/Book Value) – price divided by book value per share Net debt – credits + debt papers + interest bearing loans – cash and cash equivalents EBITDA margin – EBITDA/Sales
OVERWEIGHT (OW) – a rating which indicates that we expect a stock to outperform the broad market NEUTRAL (N) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to perform in line with the broad market UNDERWEIGHT (UW) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to underperform the broad market
Recommendations of Biuro maklerskie mBanku: A recommendation is valid for a period of 9 months, unless a subsequent recommendation is issued within this period. Expected returns from individual recommendations are as follows: BUY – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will be at least 15% ACCUMULATE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from 5% to 15% HOLD – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from -5% to +5% REDUCE – we expect that the rate of return from an investment will range from -5% to -15% SELL – we expect that an investment will bear a loss greater than 15% Recommendations are updated at least once every nine months. mBank S.A. with its registered office in Warsaw at Senatorska 18 renders brokerage services in the form of derived organisational unit – Brokerage Office which uses name Biuro maklerskie mBanku. mBank S.A. as part of the Exchange's Analytical Coverage Support Programme (“Programme”, https://www.gpw.pl/eacsp) prepares analytical reports for the following companies: Cognor Holding, Comarch, VRG. These documents are prepared at the request of Giełda Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie S.A. (‘WSE’), which is entitled to copyrights to these materials. mBank S.A. receives remuneration from the WSE for the preparation of the reports. All documents prepared for the Programme are available at: https://www.mdm.pl/ui-pub/site/market_and_analysis/analysis_and_recommendations/analytical_coverage_support_programme
This document has been created and published by Biuro maklerskie mBanku. The present report expresses the knowledge as well as opinions of the authors on day the report was prepared. The opinions and estimates contained herein constitute our best judgment at this date and time, and are subject to change without notice. The present report was prepared with due care and attention, observing principles of methodological correctness and objectivity, on the basis of sources available to the public, which Biuro maklerskie mBanku considers reliable, including information published by issuers, shares of which are subject to recommendations. However, Biuro maklerskie mBanku, in no case, guarantees the accuracy and completeness of the report, in particular should sources on the basis of which the report was prepared prove to be inaccurate, incomplete or not fully consistent with the facts. mBank S.A. bears no responsibility for investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report or for any damages incurred as a result of investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report.
This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase any financial instruments and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. It is being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person This document does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or other advice, and mBank is not liable for damages resulting from or related to the use of data provided in the documents. This document may not be copied, duplicated and/or be directly or indirectly distributed in the United States, Canada, Australia or Japan, nor transferred to citizens or residents of a state where its distribution may be legally restricted, which does not limit the possibility of publishing materials prepared for the Programme on Cognor Holding, Comarch, VRG, mBank or WSE websites. Persons who disseminate this document should be aware of the need to comply with such restrictions.
Recommendations are based on essential data from the entire history of a company being the subject of a recommendation, with particular emphasis on the period since the previous recommendation. Investing in shares is connected with a number of risks including, but not limited to, the macroeconomic situation of the country, changes in legal regulations as well as changes on commodity markets. Full elimination of these risks is virtually impossible.
Recommendations are based on essential data from the entire history of a company being the subject of a recommendation, with particular emphasis on the period since the previous recommendation.
Investing in shares is connected with a number of risks including, but not limited to, the macroeconomic situation of the country, changes in legal regulations as well as changes on commodity markets. Full elimination of these risks is virtually impossible. mBank S.A. bears no responsibility for investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report or for any damages incurred as a result of investment decisions taken on the basis of the present report.
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This document was not transferred to the issuers prior to its publication. mBank S.A. may have received compensation from the following companies in the last 12 months: Alchemia, Alior Bank, Ambra, Amica, Bank Handlowy, Bank Millennium, Bank Pekao, BGŻ BNP Paribas, Boryszew, Capital Park, CD Projekt, Centrum Nowoczesnych Technologii, Ceramika Nowa Gala, CI Games, Echo Investment, Elemental Holding, Elzab, Enea, Energoaparatura, Erbud, Ergis, Erste Bank, Ferrum, GetBack, Getin Holding, Getin Noble Bank, Globalworth Poland, GPW, Groclin, Helio SA, i2 Development, INDATA, ING BSK, Kruk, LW Bogdanka, MCI Capital, Mennica Polska, Mostostal Warszawa, Netia, Neuca, NWAI Dom Maklerski, Oponeo.pl, OTP Bank, PA Nova, PBKM, Pfleiderer Group, PGNiG, PKO BP, Polimex-Mostostal, Polnord, Polwax, Poznańska Korporacja Budowlana PEKABEX, Primetech, Prochem, Projprzem, PZU, Raiffeisen Bank International, Rawlplug, Rubicon Partners NFI, Santander Bank Polska, Seco/Warwick, Skarbiec Holding, Solar Company, Sygnity, Tarczyński, Ten Square Games, TIM, Trakcja, Unibep, Vistal Gdynia, Wittchen, Work Service, YOLO, Zastal, ZUE.
In the last 12 months mBank S.A. has acted as dealer-manager for tender or exchange offers for the shares of: Centrum Nowoczesnych Technologii, Ceramika Nowa Gala, CI Games, Ergis, Globalworth Poland, Helio SA, MCI Capital, Mostostal Warszawa, NWAI Dom Maklerski, Pfleiderer Group, Primetech.
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Copying or publishing the present report, in full or in part, or disseminating in any way information contained in the present report requires the prior written agreement of mBank S.A. Recommendations are addressed to all Clients of Biuro maklerskie mBanku.
Recommendations are addressed to all Clients of Biuro maklerskie mBanku.
All investment recommendations and strategies issued by mBank S.A. over the last 12 months are available at: http://www.mdm.pl/ui-pub/site/market_and_analysis/analysis_and_recommendations/fundamental_analysis/recommendations?recent_filter_active=true&lang=en
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Individuals who did not participate in the preparation of recommendations, but had or could have had access to recommendations prior to their publication, are employees of Biuro maklerskie mBanku authorised to access the premises in which recommendations are prepared and/or individuals having to access to recommendations based on their corporate roles, other than the analysts mentioned as the authors of the present recommendations.
This publication constitutes investment research within the meaning of Art. 36.1 of Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2017/565.
The compensation of the research analysts responsible for preparing investment research is determined independently of and without regard to the compensation of or revenue generated by any other employee of the Bank, including but not limited to any employee whose business interests may reasonably be considered to conflict with the interests of the persons to whom the investment research prepared by the Research Department of Biuro maklerskie mBanku is disseminated. With that being said, since one of the factors taken into consideration when determining the compensation of research analysts is the degree of fulfillment of annual financial targets by customer service functions, there is a risk that the adequacy of compensation offered to persons preparing investment research will be questioned by a competent oversight body.
For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of mBank SA which is the employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the United States (U.S.) and are not associated persons of any U.S. regulated broker-dealer and therefore the analyst(s) is/are not subject to supervision by a U.S. broker-dealer, and is/are not required to satisfy the regulatory licensing requirements of FINRA or required to otherwise comply with U.S. rules or regulations regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. This report is intended for distribution by mBank SA only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934 (the Exchange Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, mBank SA has entered into an agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Cabrera Capital Markets. ("Cabrera"). Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be effected through Cabrera or another U.S. registered broker dealer.
Strong and weak points of valuation methods used in recommendations: DCF – acknowledged as the most methodologically correct method of valuation; it consists in discounting financial flows generated by a company; its weak point is the significant susceptibility to a change of forecast assumptions in the model. Relative – based on a comparison of valuation multipliers of companies from a given sector; simple in construction, reflects the current state of the market better than DCF; weak points include substantial variability (fluctuations together with market indices) as well as difficulty in the selection of the group of comparable companies. Economic profits – discounting of future economic profits; the weak point is high sensitivity to changes in the assumptions made in the valuation model. Discounted Dividends (DDM) – discounting of future dividends; the weak point is high sensitivity to changes in the assumptions as to future dividends made in the valuation model. NAV - valuation based on equity value, one of the most frequently used method in case of developing companies; the weak point of the method is that it does not factor in future changes in revenue/profits of a company.
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mBank S.A. Senatorska 18 00-950 Warszawa http://www.mbank.pl/
Research Department
Kamil Kliszcz Michał Marczak Michał Konarski director +48 22 438 24 01 +48 22 438 24 05 +48 22 438 24 02 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] strategy banks, financials energy, power generation
Jakub Szkopek Paweł Szpigiel Piotr Bogusz +48 22 438 24 03 +48 22 438 24 06 +48 22 438 24 08 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] industrials, chemicals, metals media, IT, telco retail, gaming
Aleksandra Szklarczyk Piotr Poniatowski Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 04 +48 22 438 24 09 +48 22 438 24 07 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] construction, real-estate development industrials financials
Sales and Trading
Traders
Piotr Gawron Krzysztof Bodek Tomasz Jakubiec director +48 22 697 48 89 +48 22 697 47 31 +48 22 697 48 95 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Adam Prokop Magdalena Bernacik Andrzej Sychowski +48 22 697 47 90 +48 22 697 47 35 +48 22 697 48 46 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]
Sales, Foreign Markets
Bartosz Orzechowski Jędrzej Łukomski +48 22 697 48 47 +48 22 697 49 85 [email protected] [email protected]
Private Client Sales
Kamil Szymański Jarosław Banasiak director deputy director +48 22 697 47 06 +48 22 697 48 70 [email protected] [email protected]
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