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Home , Blundell Park, Javi Gracia, John McGreal, Lynden Gooch, Michael Jolley, Neil Aspin

The returns this weekend and although it will be great to have it back on our screens for once I’m feeling a little bit of sympathy for the players at the top level. It seems only a matter of days since we were cheering on the Three Lions in that World Cup Semi Final and my legs are still aching from a Division Three Sunday League cricket encounter last Saturday. Yes, they don’t do many ‘real life’ chores but the physical rigours of professional sport at the very top-level place huge demands on players. At some point the quality has to diminish, surely? I for one would welcome another week or twos break before we see kick off at for the first EPL game of the season. That has nothing to do with Mr Cheerful in the home dugout!

The transfer window has by now closed shut in but uncertainty around the EPL still hovers over teams due to the calendar disparity in the window slamming shut across Europe. There will be a lot of nervous managers over the next few weeks hoping that their carefully assembled squads do not get ripped apart. All of my EPL work was undertaken before the end of the English window so apologies in advance if any players are suddenly plying their trade elsewhere!

Fun time Frankie Lampard began his managerial career for Derby last Friday night away to Reading. The home side played a physical brand of football that Lampard’s men were struggling to cope with and trailed before an equaliser on the hour mark. Before then the Rams had gone backwards, sideways and nowhere in typical top level style and you have to wonder if Lampard has the personnel at his disposal to play that that patient passing style. After the board was held up to indicate four minutes of stoppage time there was 93:47 on the clock when Tom Lawrence headed home to give Frank three points. Good manager or lucky manager? Only time will tell.

It is important that you don’t get carried away with what you saw last weekend as no team is as good or as bad as they may have looked on opening day. However, for some clubs it was very important that they had a positive start to the new campaign. can be used as a case in point as following two poor seasons they needed a tone setting performance and result to give the loyal fans some hope. Trailing 1-0 to Charlton live on with an hour gone was not the start they were looking for but they levelled just after the hour mark. When I checked LiveScore as I walked round the cricket boundary around 215pm I just sensed that something was going to happen at the of Light. The injury time winner for the home side was made in the America’s as international finished thanks to an assist from Costa Rican Bryan Oviedo. Such moments can prove pivotal as the explosion of noise at that winner tells you what a formidable force the red and whites can be in League One if they carry their support with them.

Last week I had a bit of a head rush and for some reason wrote in my pre-season Acca column about Carlos Carvahal being manager of Swansea. He left that post in May and was replaced by Graham Potter and I did know that. Maybe I had sun stroke the day I wrote that bit, oops! Apologies. Potter did oversee a victory for the Swans at United as the newly relegated sides had mixed fortunes as they adapted to Championship life. West Bromwich Albion and Stoke City both lost 2-1 and 3-1 at home to Bolton and away to Leeds respectively. That is a tough old division that Championship and it will be very interesting to see how it develops over the course of the season.

We did quite well last weekend from a betting perspective, but you won’t find me crowing about successes. This is a hard game to remain profitable in and rather than resting on my laurels I’ve doubled my efforts and spent the week hard at work looking for more value. Best of luck this weekend and here’s to another good week!

All the best Jimmy Kempton Editor

Last Sunday the #GoalRush selection was successful but it may have contributed to my downfall though on the cricket pitch. I had constructed a very patient 51 runs in the hot August sun and after batting for two hours I raised my head and looked at the clock located near the pavilion. It showed 645pm and after bowling ten overs earlier in the day I was starting to feel weary and my mind wandered to Norway and the Tromso v Haugesund game. I should not have concerned myself about events in Scandinavia as the away team had netted the third goal of the game by around 630pm UK time to give them all three points and land us the over 2.5 goals bet. If I had of been thinking more about the left arm inswing bowler charging at me I may not have chopped on to my own stumps and as the last recognised batsman (loose term) the game was lost!

I have the ultimate confidence in my work but I have to say it is always great to get off to a positive start at the beginning of the season. Here is to another good week and as the weeks move forward the breadth of choice will increase. This week though has seen a rather small number of games making the #GoalRush cut as the volume of games thrown out by the algorithm was one of the lowest ever. However, from doing my extra research it appears more of a case of quality over quantity, so I am happy to put forward a selection this weekend. Before we head off around the globe let us take a quick look at the current record. I always like to include goal stats across a range of goal markets as although this is an over 2 ½ goal column I know some readers do like to include the highlighted games in other goal wagers they make.

Season Long Results Over 0.5 goals 1-0 Over 1.5 goals 1-0 Over 2.5 goals 1-0 Over 3.5 goals 0-1 Yes on Both Teams To Score 1-0 Profit/Loss +0.86 from 1 bet

Seattle Sounders v FC Dallas @ 19/25, Monday 3am Kick Off UK Time Seattle currently sit in fourteenth spot overall and eighth in the Western Conference as they welcome the current leaders of their conference and fourth overall placed team FC Dallas to CenturyLink Field. It has not been a happy hunting ground for Dallas in recent years as their last three trips to the Pacific North West to take on the Sounders has seen them lose 4-0, 5-0 and 3-0. Over 2 ½ goals has gone 6-3 since March 2015 but interestingly the No on Both Teams To Score has gone 7-2 in those nine games.

In terms of household names for us English/European fans to grab a glimpse of there is Australian Brad Smith, on loan from Bournemouth, and Clint Dempsey (right) for the home side. The visitors boast no ‘famous’ names and in many ways that could explain their success as it is often the teams without the big name marquee players that do well in the MLS. Despite flying high in both the Western Conference and in the overall table Dallas have been a little leaky at the back in recent weeks. Their 5-2-3 record on their travels this season has seen them keep just three clean sheets whilst Seattle have only pitched two shut outs themselves on home soil.

Given the historical trends for Seattle finding the net in this meeting I am more than happy to take the over 2 ½ goals in this game as our #GoalRush pick for this weekend.

Arsenal v Manchester City Man City – ½ and 3 goals The defending champions start their defence away at The Emirates for what is set to be a difficult start for new Arsenal boss (pictured on the front cover). If you lined up all potential opponents in order of difficulty and asked Emery to select who he wanted to start his Arsenal reign against then I am sure City would be very low on his list. That said the level of positivity around the Arsenal camp will never be higher as the Gunners look set to start a campaign without Arsene Wenger for the first time in over twenty years. Every meeting a Guardiola led City and an Arsenal side under Arsene Wenger saw over 2.5 goals land and last season Man City netted three times in each of their three victories over the Gunners. The last fifteen total meetings of the sides stretching back to September 2012 have seen at least two goals be scored. This line opened Man City a full half a goal favourite for their trip to the capital but the line shifted to just a quarter of a goal. Was it the belief in what Emery brings to the Emirates that created thr line shift or was it more the fact that City had several players making long World Cup runs that pushed line momentum to the Gunners? That move towards Arsenal was not permanent though as the money has come again for the champions and the line looks a very steady Man City – ½ goal. Even given the fact that the City players have had a more disjointed pre-season than their Arsenal counterparts I sense all the value is with the defending champions in this spot. This is due to the certainty that we have with both the style of play and the expected performance level from the visitors. We know exactly how they will play and we know roughly the level of play that we can expect from them. For the home team literally, everything is up in the air.

FC Bournemouth v City Bournemouth – ½ and 2 ½ goals Neil Warnock takes his newly promoted Bluebirds on the road to open their second start to a Premiership campaign as Cardiff travel to the south coast. Warnock secured a record eighth promotion in English football by guiding Cardiff to second place in last years’ Championship. Previous spells in the Premier League have not gone well for the tough Yorkshireman as he was sacked at Crystal Palace, Sheffield United and QPR and historically as stated he hated managing in the top flight. So what has changed this time? Why has he not walked accepting his management style is not cut out for the very top level of the English game? Well this time is different, they all say that don’t they! Warnock has a great relationship with owner Vincent Tan and that he will not change things too much from the success of last season. There you go folks, that is why Tan likes him so much as Warnock will not spend much money. Cardiff were so bruising physically last season but that style will not work in the EPL to any great degree so it will be interesting to see how they progress. Historically the Cherries have been strong in this spot as under Howe they are 6-2-0 on home soil against newly promoted sides. Last season they overcame the challenge of both Brighton (2-1) and (4-0) as well as drawing two apiece with Newcastle where they came from two goals behind. All eight of those games saw at least two goals scored with over 2.5 goals going 7-1 and landing in the last seven matches. Howe’s men have scored in every game in this spot, found the back of the net twenty-four times and on two or more occasions in seven of the eight matches. Those strong trends suggest the Over 2 ½ goals is a good selection in this game. Eddie Howe’s men are great in this spot!

Fulham v Crystal Palace Fulham – ¼ and 2 ½ goals take his Crystal Palace side to , a club whose supporters revere him, to take on Slavisa Jokanovic’s newly promoted Fulham. From a betting perspective, to me, this is the most intriguing game of the day as both sides enter the season with just one thing on their mind, survival! The last time these two sides met in EPL action, back in the 2013-14 season, there were plenty of goals as this game ended two apiece whilst Fulham won 4-1 at . When Hodgson took over the reins at Selhurst Park last season the Eagles were a club in absolute freefall after the disastrous appointment of . Without a point or goal after four matches Hodgson was brought in to turn their fortunes around and what a job he did for the Palace faithful. Palace finished the season in eleventh spot with forty-four points, eleven points off the relegation zone, and it was their performance in these spots that had much to do with their mid-table finish. On the road at teams who finished in the bottom half of the league, assuming Fulham do, they went 3-6-0 as Hodgson’s tactical nous made them very difficult to beat in this spot. Despite the anticipation around the Cottage this weekend those stats steer you clearly towards the away team as you know Hodgson will set them up in a manner to be difficult to beat. Now do you back them on the handicap or are those draw trends strong enough for you to look to gain some extra value by taking the game to end all square. Last season Fulham went 13-8-2 on home soil so even at a lower level of the game there was a propensity for them to pick up a solitary point on home soil. I think I will side with Crystal Palace + ¼ goals on the handicap line but wouldn’t dissuade anyone from taking a Slavisa Jokanovic’s men are tough to beat at Craven Cottage piece of the outright draw.

Huddersfield Town v Chelsea Chelsea -1 and 2 ½ goals We have already seen Chelsea this season in a ‘competitive’ game when Maurizio Sarri’s men lost 2-0 at Wembley last Sunday in the Community Shield. I am not sure really what to expect from Sarri in his first role in English football at the tender age of fifty-nine years of age. It was a point at Stamford Bridge in early May that gave Huddersfield the opportunity to stay in the Premier League for a second term. Following that 1-1 draw in west Terriers boss was tossed in the air by his players as they celebrated what at the beginning of last season seemed almost impossible. That night saw a defensive masterclass from Wagner’s men as they frustrated their hosts and ensured that Chelsea will only play in the Europa League this winter. This could be a real case of the second season syndrome for Huddersfield this season as it is hard to imagine them doing as well as they did in the last campaign yet they still fell perilously close to relegation. The imbalance in the transfer window, which has just shut in England yet remains open until August 31st in the European big leagues, could give Sarri some sleepless nights between now and September. Who will they start as centre forward? Can he get the best out of Eden Hazard? There are so many more questions to ask of Chelsea than answers they can give so I am keeping well clear of them from a betting perspective until I get some semblance of who they are under the new regime. David Wagner thrown in the air by his player last season at Stamford Bridge as they celebrated safety!

Liverpool v West Ham United Liverpool – 1 ½ and 3 goals Of all the teams on show this opening weekend I have to say that when Liverpool play at their best they are my favourite team to watch. There is something great about the way Jurgen Klopp gets his men to play at pace and their direct, face probing style is a joy to watch. Last season Klopp’s men destroyed West Ham 4-1 in both meetings of the sides in EPL action. In the 2016-17 season it was a similar story in east London with the Reds running out 4-0 winners but the Hammers were at least able to gain a point from their trip to in December 2016 as the game finished two apiece. The last Jurgen the German in typical cheerful mood five total meetings of the sides have gone over 2.5 goals and it would appear West Ham, like many teams in the lower echelons of the EPL, struggle to cope with the pace and movement of this Klopp side. takes over at the and one of the tasks on his hands will be to find a way to get results in these types of games. Over the past three seasons West Ham are just 2-6-10 on the road at sides that finish in the top six. Interestingly given the fact that they have won just twice in those eighteen games they have failed to score in just four of those trips. The two victories were in at the beginning of the 2015-16 season when by mid-September they had won at both Arsenal and Man City. Under Klopp the Reds are 24-12-2 at Anfield over the past two seasons with those two defeats both being surprise losses in the 2016-17 campaign against Crystal Palace and Swansea. Will we see the same goal threat for the Hammers in these games under Pelligrini as we have in previous years? If so, then the total could be in danger even with the line set at 3 goals.

Manchester United v Leicester City Man Utd – 1 and 2 ¾ goals Despite the rise of Leicester to a somewhat established mid to top half Premiership side they have not fared well against Man United. In fact, their solitary victory against them came in their opening EPL meeting back in September 2014 when they ran out 5-3 winners in a crazy game at the King Power. Even during their EPL title winning season the Foxes only managed two 1-1 draws in what was a desperate season for United. United are 5-3-1 in the nine total meetings of the sides since that sunny day in September 2014 with four of those five victories coming by two or more goals. Every meeting of the sides has seen at least two goals with over 2.5 goals going 6-3 with four of those six seeing four or more goals. has seen a full quarter of a goal shift away from the home side. This line has trended down from its opening position of United – 1 ¼ as the success of Belgium in the World Cup has led to a movement towards the Foxes. is clearly United’s biggest goal threat and due to his involvement in the World Cup Semi Final his pre-season was severely curtailed. Will Jose protect him and limit his early season game time to preserve him for later in the season? Given the cautious way in which United play it is not difficult to see why the line has adjusted because any doubt over their most potent threat makes a narrower margin of victory even more likely. As recently as the last week there have been rumblings of discontent around the United camp as their glorified friendly against Bayern Munich saw them register just one shot on target and have less than 30% possession. With Jose Mourinho downplaying expectations following just one pre-season win who would back them -1 in this spot? Not me for sure. With Alexis Sanchez not participating in the World Cup this summer I sense we may start to see the best from him in a United shirt. One to think of for your Fantasy Football United fans will be hoping for plenty of celebrations from Red Rom Team for sure. this season

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Tottenham – ½ and 2 ½ goals This game has seen a rather large movement in the market towards Newcastle since the prices formulated early in the summer. England progressing into the World Cup Semi Final has meant a much-shortened pre-season for Spurs’ English contingent of , , Harry Kane, and Danny Rose. If you throw into the mix Spurs’ Belgian trio of Toby Alderweireld, Moussa Dembele and Jan Vertonghen plus France’s Hugo Lloris it is no wonder that the bookmakers are happy to take them on opening day. The sides met twice last season in EPL action and both games were won by Tottenham to nil including a 2-0 victory on Tyneside on the opening day of the campaign. In fact Spurs have won their three of their last four EPL trips to this ground but were humbled 5-1 on the last day in May 2016. Last season when Mauricio Pochettino’s men travelled to the north east they were priced as a – ¾ goal favourite and they delivered for punters so is this price movement a deeply exaggerated one.

Harry Kane – 2018 World Cup Golden Boot Winner, the man on the £5 note and Spurs’ talisman

There is so much apathy around St James’ Park at present it could be a difficult atmosphere for the home players should they not start the game well. The hostility that is currently being aimed at owner Mike Ashley, no matter how much the supporters say is not aimed at the playing staff, will invariably create some toxic atmospheres at St James’ his season. Unlike the issues at the Emirates in recent years the players in the black and white stripes of the home team are not good enough to overcome a negative atmosphere. On opening day though I would urge caution siding too heavily with Spurs given the shortened pre-season for many of their key players.

Southampton v Burnley Southampton – ½ and 2 ¼ goals Burnley won 1-0 at St Marys last season in early November and it was victories like that enabled ’s men to finish in seventh spot come the end of the season. It was a truly amazing performance last season from Burnley and that seventh placed finish gave the men from the opportunity to start a campaign with European football in the Europa League. Southampton start their first full season under the stewardship of and in truth a mid-table finish at best is all I expect from them. Between 2013-14 and 2016-17 the Saints finished 8th, 7th, 6th and 8th but the continual selling of their best players has taken its toll on their squad. Last season they ended the season in 17th spot just three points off of the drop zone and none of Hughes’ summer transfer moves fill me with any hope of improvement. Under 2.5 goals has gone 3-1 in the four meetings of the sides in EPL action since October 2016 and if you stretch the analysis back to when Burnley were first in the EPL, still managed by Dyche, that increases to 5-1. This game could be decided by a single goal either way, so I am happy to take a piece of the Under 2 ¼ goals.

Watford v Brighton & Hove Albion Watford – ¼ and 2 ¼ goals There was just one goal scored in the two meetings of the sides last season with Brighton winning 1-0 at the AMEX Stadium just before Christmas. When the teams met on this ground very early in the season Brighton held the Hornets to a goalless draw despite being reduced to ten men very early in the game. Last season Brighton went 2-3- 4 on the road against sides who finished in the bottom half of the table whilst Watford were just 2-4-3 when hosting bottom half placed teams. Watford are 4-2-1 at home since Javi Gracia took over at with that solitary loss against Burnley. It was the home form of Brighton last season that allowed them to maintain their EPL status as they went 2-5-12 on their travels with only victories at Swansea and West Ham giving them maximum reward for their efforts. I feel that both teams may struggle this season and come the end of May there will be a huge sigh of relief breathed at both clubs should they manage to avoid relegation. There is always huge scrutiny at the back end of the season but often the hard work by teams who escape relegation is done at the beginning of the campaign so both sides will know how important this opening game may be come May. This is a difficult game to call on this handicap line and I would pass the match market and look towards the goals market if I was looking to bet this match. I do not see this being an exciting encounter and it would not surprise me in the slightest if we saw a repeat of last season’s goalless stalemate. In view of that I am more than happy to take a piece of the under 2 ¼ goals as both sides will fear defeat this weekend far more than they will embrace the joy of an attacking performance that would bring them all three points.

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Everton Wolves and 2 ½ goals After sweeping all before them in the Championship last season it is Wolves’ time to step up to the big boys table of English football. There is huge expectation around Molineux as we enter the new season with some Wolves supporters even suggesting that they have what it takes to push towards a top six spot. Very rarely is that sort of immediate success achieved. I am not saying it’s not possible, but this is Nuno Espirito Santo’s first season in the English top flight and despite the talent at his disposal I am not convinced they are ready for such a step just yet. They have made some interesting signings this summer and none more so than Portuguese number one Rui Patricio. His signing from Sporting Lisbon was the surprise move of the summer and with Joao Moutinho also coming in from Monaco the Portuguese flavour to this squad continues to grow and grow. For new readers to my work let me explain my love for Everton boss . It is a bit of a man crush I have on him, but rather than his good looks it is more due to the money he has made me over the last few seasons. It started at Hull, continued at Watford and now he has a chance to prove himself at one of the biggest clubs in England. Everton are arguably the biggest club outside of the top six and finally he will have some financial resources at his disposal to purchase players of a higher quality. His record as a manager on home soil is exceptional and given Everton’s potential for turning into a fortress venue to visit they are a side to watch this season. If forced to make a bet in this game on opening day I would take the draw outright. If there is some form of line move even further towards Wolves, which there could be given that this is the late game on Saturday evening, then I would be tempted to take Everton + ¼ goal at any price over Even Money. If the markets remain sticky at this level with Everton around 10/11 I will just keep away from this from a betting perspective and make notes on both teams for future weeks. Rui Patricio – Wolves and Portugal’s Number One

Arsenal 03-04 are the gold standard for this column, can we follow in their football footsteps and go the season unbeaten?

This regular column is pretty self-explanatory as we shall be looking to go through the entire season unbeaten. Back in 2003-04 Arsene Wenger’s side did at least have the safety net of a draw to ensure that they remained unbeaten but just like those crazy Cirque-de-Soleil acrobats we have nothing to protect us from crashing to the floor! 26-12-0 may have been good enough for the Gunners to etch their name into football history but we are looking for something even greater. Is it possible that we can go 43-0? Well we are 1-0 so anything can happen!

I think I referred to him as a cocker spaniel on speed last week, but I always knew Ollie Palmer would fire the goals for Crawley Honest! Palmer is a man cut from a good cloth as his father was bodyguard to HRH Prince of Wales for many years, so he understands discipline and the importance of teamwork. His sixty-third-minute strike landed Crawley all three points at Cheltenham and saw us fight another week in this column. £10.63 it is and one down…forty-two to go! In terms of price last week I suggested 1/16 which equates to a 1.0625 decimal pricing. On Saturday morning with a bit of patience I was able to obtain 1.09 on the Exchanges. I will always quote the best bookmaker price for these bets, but it is worth having a look on the Exchanges to see what you can find. Obviously, there is commission to take off any winnings but although the price difference does not seem much it is an extra 27% winnings added to your bet. If you can haggle and barter for even an extra 10% on each bet on the Exchanges all of that effort will be worthwhile as your bank will grow far more than if you just settle for the market price. This does take time and not everyone has that time available to continually check and amend their bets to seek out the best value possible. If you can spare the time though your wallet will thank you in the end.

This week we head to the south coast for the opening EPL game at The Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth where the home team host Cardiff City. As I talk of in the EPL breakdown earlier in the magazine when Bournemouth are involved in these types of games there are always goals, so we will take there to be at least one to keep this bank building up towards the sky. Next stop £12!

Selection Back over ½ goal in Bournemouth v Cardiff @ 1/14

A win will take the bank to £11.34

Let’s mark some bookmaker homework to see how they did last week. Can we identify trends that could help us this weekend? As we discussed last week we almost know as much as they do about teams at this early stage of the season, but we have the benefit of not partaking in each and every game as we can pick and choose. So, by assessing their performance we can maybe gain a feel for the types of bet that they were on the right side of. As they do not tend to make knee-jerk reactions with their pricings then if they were correct last week, maybe they will be correct again this week?

Championship Teams priced at odds on went 2-2 Highest price winner Swansea @ 31/10 away at Sheffield United Home Team Record 5-5-4 11-3 to over 2 ½ goals 12-2 to Yes on Both Teams To Score

League One Teams priced at odds on went 2-0 Highest price winner Bradford @ 58/25 away at Shrewsbury Home Team Record 5-1-6 7-5 to over 2 ½ goals 6-6 to Yes on Both Teams To Score

League Two Teams priced at odds on went 4-0 Highest price winner Crawley @ 63/25 away at Cheltenham Home Team Record 6-2-4 8-4 to over 2 ½ goals 5-7 to Yes on Both Teams To Score

Overall Teams priced at odds on went 8-2 Home Team Record 16-8-14 26-12 to over 2 ½ goals 23-15 to Yes on Both Teams To Score

Often punters just scroll down the coupon looking for the short-priced teams to throw them all in one accumulator. I am impressed by their 8-2 record on the teams priced at odds on, the fact a lot of them won could have cost them money but showed that they correctly identified the most fancied teams. From a goals perspective though they should have taken a bit of a hammering. No more so than in the Championship where all of the televised games over the Friday/Monday weekend hit both an over 2.5 goals bet and the Yes on Both Teams To Score. Even the Saturday lunchtime offering from League One saw the over 2.5 goals landed in stoppage time as Sunderland picked up all three points over Charlton by virtue of a 2-1 win. Given that pummelling you could see the odds on over 2.5 goals and Yes on BTTS be kept artificially low this week in a bid to protect punters from rolling over those winnings.

This weekend, as of Wednesday evening, we see six sides opening as relatively solid odds on favourites in EFL action. In the Championship Aston Villa, and Nottingham Forest. League One has just Scunthorpe at home to Walsall priced below the Even Money mark whilst League Two sees two teams in the shape of Lincoln and MK Dons. Of those six I would probably be most interested in Scunthorpe but suggest you do some research yourself before diving in on The Iron.

Last weekend there were four bets that I liked and for the main part we did very well. As I’m writing this part of the column on Wednesday, my bin collection day, so let’s get the trash out of the way first. Morecambe plus half a goal away at Crewe was all but dead and buried after ten minutes as the Railwaymen raced into a two-goal lead. That was the scoreline going into the interval and a deluge of second half goals saw the game finish 6-0 to the home side. No side will ever be as good or as bad as their first game of the season would have you believe so I’m very interested from a betting perspective in both teams this weekend.

Matt Green giving Lincoln all three points at Sixfields on opening day

My Lincoln boys didn’t disappoint with a very solid display away at Northampton where they took all three points thanks to a 1-0 win. Northampton dominated the first half and kept Lincoln custodian Josh Vickers very busy but were unable to break the deadlock. As we spoke of last week the Imps look to take games into the break goalless and they achieved that target mainly thanks to Vickers. After the break Lincoln came more into the game and took the victory thanks to Matt Green’s 48th minute header. When Danny and Nicky Cowley sit back and watch a re-run of this game it’d be almost a template of how they want to play away from . Soak up the early pressure, quieten the home crowd down and then take hold of the game in the second half. Northampton did have two late chances spurned by Andy Williams including a fine one on one save from Vickers that earned him the Man Of The Match accolade. It was a bit of a smash and grab raid from Lincoln but there is nowhere on the league table where that is highlighted, just the points column and in that one the Imps registered three!

Paul Tisdale began his career in charge of the MK Dons with a 2-1 win at Oldham. It’s too early to take much from this game apart from the simple fact that, as we believed, the Dons will do far better over the duration of the season than Oldham. Last week I spoke of the potential at now they have a dynamic strike partnership in the shape of and . Between them they netted all three goals in Vale’s opening 3-0 win over Cambridge with Miller’s twenty-yard free kick on the stroke of half time being the game changing moment. Pope converted a penalty, following a trip on Miller, just after the break and a trademark Pope header with twenty minutes left ensured a comfortable win for the Valiants.

We go through the goalless draw at between Notts County and Colchester and the game settled by the cock a spaniel on speed at Cheltenham elsewhere this edition.

Elsewhere there were interesting home victories for Bury over Yeovil and more expectedly for Mansfield over Newport 1-0 and 3-0 respectively. Stevenage were held to a 2-2 draw by newly promoted Tranmere who came from two goals behind to take a share of the spoils on their return to the Football League. Swindon won 3-2 over Macclesfield thanks to two last minute penalties from Michael Doughty which completed the midfielder’s hat-trick.

It may sound a rather fortuitous win for the Robins but in truth they had the better possession and chances in the game. Striking the woodwork on three occasions and with Swindon’s keeper gifting newly promoted Macc a goal it was a well-deserved win for Swindon.

Is the time-bomb inside John Sheridan’s head ticking yet? Last week his new charges Carlisle were beaten 3-1 away at Exeter and that’s a long long coach journey home for his players. You know how I said last week how Sheridan likes to get at his players? Well, if you didn’t believe me then it has taken just one game for him to start…….

”The goals we conceded ... look, all goals are poor, but we shot ourselves in the foot. I can’t wait to see them and analyse them, so I can see what’s gone on, what we should have done and how we could have prevented them. We’ve made them look easy goals for Exeter to score because we had good numbers of bodies who were behind the ball, but not many of them were doing a lot. The first goal comes from people going to ground. Just stay on your feet and the goal doesn’t happen. The second one is unbelievable with how many people are stood away and marking space instead of getting touch-tight to players they should be dealing with. It’s Michael Doughty from the spot, on the double! been a difficult start and those mistakes have ended up costing us. These are lessons the boys have to learn because we have to be better.”

Some of that could be taken out of context but I think you get the sense of the “They” as opposed to the “We” philosophy that Sheridan employs. He is the gift that keeps giving!

After the game home boss Matt Taylor was waxing lyrical about experienced midfielder Nicky Law who made his debut for the Grecians. Exeter gave debuts to five players and before the season started many observers felt they would regress significantly from last season where they reached the Play Off Final. Well so far so good or Taylor’s men because as well as Taylor having a big impact each of their three goals was scored by a newcomer to St James’ Park. Rumours of their decline may be premature but who can tell after just one game.

There was some pre-season expectation surrounding Blundell Park and some observers had pencilled them in as potential surprise Play Off contenders. I was never going to go that far but the manner of their 4-1 home loss to Forest Green must cause concern for Mariners boss Michael Jolley. In last week’s edition we discussed how this could be a battle of possession and on a hot day on the east coast it was the visitors who controlled nearly 60% of the ball. had led 1-0 at the interval thanks to a Mitchell Rose penalty but Green equalised just after the break before a bizarre put them 2-1 up. Two goals from star striker Christian Doidge (pictured right) gave Mark Cooper’s men all three points and lined them up nicely for this weekend’s home game.

th League Two Fixtures 11 August

Cambridge United v Notts County Carlisle United v Northampton Town Colchester United v Port Vale Crawley Town v Stevenage Forest Green Rovers v Oldham Athletic Lincoln City v Swindon Town Macclesfield Town v Grimsby Town Milton Keynes Dons v Bury Morecambe v Exeter City Newport County v Crewe Alexandra Tranmere Rovers v Cheltenham Town Yeovil Town v Mansfield Town

The best place to start this week’s review is where there is the potential for the biggest value to be found. A one- week sample size is not enough for bookmakers or punters to make proper assessments on the potential for season long achievements. However, human nature means that people have at the forefront of their mind what they have just seen and for Crewe and Morecambe last week the perception for both clubs are polar opposites. Jim Bentley’s men sit rock bottom of the Football League following that tonking 6-0 and this week they host an Exeter side who come into the game on the back of a solid opening day win. Worryingly for Morecambe there always appears to be goals when these two sides meet as all twelve of the teams’ League Two meetings since August 2012 have seen two or more goals. Over 2.5 goals is only 6-6 during that time frame though with Exeter going 5-4-3 in those twelve meetings. Morecambe won this fixture 2-1 this season but prior to that Exeter had gone 2-1-0 at the Globe Arena in their previous three trips to the north west. For a side that the bookmakers had concerns over just a few days ago Exeter are priced at 13/10 for this long trip, 580-mile round trip to be precise, so are they a tad short? We have seen time and time again how Jim Bentley can get his men motivated to outperform but trusting them here is not a good idea. Since the beginning of the 2013-14 season Morecambe have lost by three or more goals on fifteen occasions. Only four times have they bounced back and won their next league outing, so the current market prices look, as much as I do not like to say it as I love backing Bentley’s men about fair.

Crewe travel to south Wales to take on Mike Flynn’s Newport and coming off the back of a six-goal salvo against Morecambe. I was hoping that they would be priced a little shorter than they are, so we could take them on! Sadly, the bookmakers have kept their nerve even given the fact that the Welsh team were beaten 3- 0 in Nottinghamshire against Mansfield. Who are Dave Artell’s Crewe? If they are going to be a bottom half placed side, then Newport could offer some value as they are 8-4-4 under Flynn at home to bottom half placed sides. That record is not a stand out one, but you have to factor in that they are 1-4-4 in their last nine so that meant they had won seven straight games in the spots.

Mike Flynn bringing knitwear to the Valleys!

I say you have to remember it because that epic FA Cup run of last season, coupled with their terrible pitch, really took it out of Newport and deeply affected them as the season wore on. It was hit or miss for Artell’s men last season on the road as they went 7-1-15 with their solitary draw coming at Stevenage 2-2 but there were plenty of goals! Over 2 ½ goals went 14-9 season long in Crewe away games with a 10-2 overs run to finish the campaign. The pitch at will never be in a better condition this season than it is for this opening game so given those Crewe trends towards goals I am very drawn to both the over 2 ½ goals bet at just under Even Money and the Yes on Both Teams To Score at 37/50.

Lincoln host Swindon at Sincil Bank in a game that ordinarily I would be in attendance. I am a loyal cricket man though and have commitments at my club that make me unavailable to sit in seat I06 for this game. Lincoln are priced at odds on for this match and in normal circumstances I would not want to take my boys to win a game this early in the season at such prohibitive odds. Last season Lincoln went 4-5-2 at home against sides that eventually finished in the top half of the table and I am not sure it is such a big leap of faith to think that Swindon will finish in the top twelve. So those stats don’t really suggest that the Imps at odds on are such good value, but it is last week’s events that make me lean heavily towards a home win. Lincoln had keeper Vickers to thank for their victory away at Northampton as he pulled off a serious of good saves.

At the Swindon were conceding twice to newly promoted Macclesfield before they rallied to take all three points deep into stoppage time. I do not envisage Macclesfield making much of an impact in League Two this year so that fact they found the back of the net twice in this game makes me concerned for the solidity of the Swindon backline. The Robins had to rely on two penalties to get the points so how dangerous is this Swindon forward line? I am thinking that Lincoln will win this game but am cautious in wanting to see how they set up on home soil before backing them at an odds on market price that doesn’t look overly generous.

Forest Green host Oldham Athletic and as we discussed last week they are very much a momentum team that historically go on little runs of form, both good and bad, so should we support them this week? Last season Green went an overall 4-1-3 against relegated sides with their performance on home soil being an impressive 3-0-1 with their solitary defeat coming at the hands of Swindon. The current market price of 6/4 suggests that there could be some value with the vegans to take all three points and condemn Oldham to their second defeat in as many games to start their season in the basement league.

MK Dons host Bury at the Stadium MK following opening day victories for both sides. Initially when I saw Tisdale’s men priced at odds on I was looking to find an angle to take them on. However, the fact that they earned a double last season when the sides met has put me off somewhat. Teams priced at odds on in this league used to be, well ten years ago anyway, an auto lay! Now you have to be far more selective when opposing sides as the bookmakers have wised up to how unpredictable this league is. I sense that the Dons will find a way to take all three points but at the current market price I won’t be handing over any of my hard-earned cash to support that view.

Our weekly fashion tip from MK Dons boss Paul Tisdale. Just 40 more odd pictures of Mr Suave to go!

I am not sure that either Tranmere (at home to Cheltenham) or Mansfield (away to Yeovil) deserve to be priced around the Even Money mark so early in the season. I was stood on a terrace in Accrington though when Mansfield last travelled to Yeovil back in April when the Stags registered a 3-2 victory so I won’t be opposing Flitcroft’s men in this spot. I am more likely to take on Tranmere by supporting Cheltenham to avoid defeat. Under Gary Johnson Cheltenham are 7-8-9 away to sides finishing in the bottom half of the table so obviously I am assuming one thing here, Tranmere will finish in the bottom half. At the current market prices if I am correct then we are getting roughly a bet with a 62.5% success rate at just a risk of 50%. I like those kinds of odds. Take Cheltenham + ½ goals on the handicap line or Gary Johnson is rubbing his hands ahead of Cheltenham’s trip to Tranmere lay Tranmere around that Even Money mark on the Exchanges.

The bookmakers seem to have got a little excited over Colchester after that goalless draw with Notts County last Saturday as they have been installed quite short this Saturday as they welcome Port Vale. Both games between the sides ended in draws last season as this fixture ended one apiece with the return match in Stoke ending two apiece. Given the momentum that Vale carry forward into this game I am sensing that they offer some decent risk/reward to at least avoid defeat here. Depending on how the match price moves I could be tempted to take them outright but I would need 3/1 or better to even consider that angle. That is because on the road they are just 3-7-7 under and none of those wins have come in the last twelve matches away from Vale Park. Before you dive in too big though I will just put the counter argument up as under John McGreal Colchester are 23-11-12 at home against sides who finish in the top half of the table. In conclusion if you are backing Vale here it would only seem sensible to keep the draw on Aspin had Vale out the blocks quickly last weekend. Can it continue this week in your side. deepest, orangest Essex!

I am keeping away from going against John Sheridan at home to Northampton as I need to see how the Cobblers react after that loss to Lincoln. Crawley host Stevenage and that is a game that I have no real thoughts on whilst Cambridge host Notts County. Given the outlay this summer then County should at least avoid defeat on the Draw/No Bet line but I am keen to hold fire on them as well until we see how they set up away from home.

The only other game on the card is Macclesfield v Grimsby and that game sees two teams looking to bounce back from opening day defeats. The pre-season optimism that surrounded Blundell Park was blown away in the defeat to Forest Green and suddenly that belief in the Mariners’ new total football approach has been brought into question. I sense all the value is with Macclesfield as given the nature in which Michael Jolley wants his Grimsby team to play it will take strong characters to get the ball down and play after that poor opening day loss. Not sure I want to necessarily place any money on the home side just yet but I can’t trust Grimsby in this spot.

I knew by half time on Saturday that the first bet of the season was doomed. I even thought of not making a wager last week but that was boring (sensible) so the stakes were very low. Going into the half time interval goalless the thought of losing an opening day encounter would ensure that both Notts County and Colchester operated in pragmatic second half fashion. So it came to pass that the game ended goalless and we had our first loss of the season with our very first bet ☹

We know a bit more about teams this week and with the Premiership returning to our screens we have more trusted options available so am hopeful that the opening weeks showing was just a blip. Let’s look at the stats before we see where the trust has been placed this week:

Weekly Starting Bank Balance 99.00 pts Points staked today 4.00 pts Maximum Closing Bank 99.86 pts Minimum Closing Bank 95.00 pts

For the first game of the weekend we head to Vicarage Road for the game between Watford and Brighton. Under Javi Gracia the home team Hornets are quite a defensive side and I am sure that one of his main goals each week is to challenge the ‘ball out of play’ stat as he likes the game to be bitty and broken up. Watford failed to score in eight of the games he took charge of last season but they also kept three clean sheets in the seven home fixtures with him in charge. Last season only one of their away games saw four or more goals and that was that crazy game away at Crystal Palace towards the end of the season. Before that we had seen ’s side be very difficult to break down on their travels as they kept three clean sheets in their first four trips to bottom half placed sides. I sense a similar set up here in this game and with the available price on the under 3 ½ goals showing a 25% ROI I think this is a good bet to kickstart the weekend.

Mr Boeing Javi Gracia and long may it continue this week We head to the Emirates for Mr Emery’s first game in charge against defending champions Manchester City. Historically there have been goals in this fixture and I am going to take at least two to occur again when these sides face off this Sunday afternoon. The last fifteen total meetings of the sides stretching back to September 2012 have seen at least two goals be scored. Under Guardiola nine of City’s ten away games at teams finishing in the top six two at least one goal and I see that run continuing here in this spot. With City keeping just two clean sheets in ten there is every chance that even if City hit top gear on opening day that the Gunners find a way to breach their backline. He current market price of 2/11 is short but I do like it to land and move us back towards parity.

Selections Back under 3 ½ goals Watford v Brighton @ 1 /4 for 2 points Back over 1 ½ goals Arsenal v Manchester City @ 2/11 for 2 points

Last year I went to the pub with my mate as he was going through some marital problems. He was bored of his Mrs and his attention was being drawn elsewhere especially towards this young blonde in his office. From the outside there was nothing with his marriage and it looked very stable and steady. He wanted some excitement though as life for him had become boring. Can you see where I am going with this yet? I tried to convince him that sometimes it’s the better the devil you know than taking a step out into the unknown. He didn’t take my advice though, left his Mrs and is now shacked up with the aforementioned blonde. They seem very happy, he has lost two stone in weight and he tells me (graphically) how good the sex is! Yes of course that parable could have ended horrifically with him having nothing left but memories of his former life and that is the scenario at The this season. Will Unai Emery be that sexy blonde or will he just be discarded by the Gunners in a type way? In short, what next for the Arsenal Story?

The excitement is palpable in the air as the Gunners look set to start a campaign without Arsene Wenger for the first time in over twenty years. For many seasons though I have questioned the actual strength of the Arsenal line up and wondered if the ‘Wenger Myth’ helped a pretty average squad of players overachieve. Time will tell as all of that respect for the Gunners that Wenger had in the bank will not now be there. These players will need to stand on their own two feet so we will see just how good they are.

Every meeting for a Guardiola led City and an Arsenal side under Arsene Wenger saw an over 2.5 goals bet land. During the last campaign Man City netted three times in each of their three victories over the Gunners and will be confident of doing so again here. We all know that Wenger made minimal adjustments to take account of the strength of their opposition. This line opened Man City a full half a goal favourite for their trip to the capital but then the line shifted to just a quarter of a goal. Was that a belief in what Emery brings to the Emirates or was it more the fact that City had several players making long World Cup runs that pushed line momentum to the home team. The line has moved back towards City minus a half goal and by kick off on Sunday it could be a very sticky level of City around Even Money.

The Verdict I could have written a huge long detailed preview of this game but all of that would have been gauged against the past twenty years of Arsenal under Arsene Wenger. All of that information in a way can be thrown out of the window now and we are taking a huge step into the unknown now at The Emirates. This weekend on the full 3 goal line I’d lean towards the over but would probably rather take City to bag all three points and ruin Emery’s opening day in charge.

I love the NFL. Heck I even moved to Las Vegas for six months once just so I could enter a NFL gambling competition. So, each week we will be looking in depth at the betting scene in the gridiron action across the pond. Once the season starts there will be detailed previews of certain games and brief snapshots across the whole card. In the run up to kick off in early September I will be going division by division to take a quick peek at each team. In the final week before the Regular Season starts I will post my best under/overs in the Season Win Markets which I have an excellent record in during recent years.

This week we look at the Norths, both AFC and NFC, where some of the most storied franchises in the history of the NFL ply their trade.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2017 Regular Season Record 13-3 Head Coach Mike Tomlin Homefield Heinz Field (68,400) Super Bowl Odds 10/1 Divisional Odds 2/5 Season Win Total 10 ½

This is a hugely talented team that Las Vegas seems to rate as the second best team in the entire NFL. A season win total of 10 ½ suggests that they should win this division at almost a canter but I am not so sure. Yes, they are the best team but there is something in the makeup of this Steeler team under coach Tomlin that concerns me. Tomlin’s team always finds a way to lose at least one game on the road each season in a shambolic manner. They play up or down to their level of opposition and I am convinced that on any given Sunday they could lose to my local English gridiron team, the Lincoln Bombers! Star running back Le’Veon Bell has been holding out again on his contract during this pre-season and the aspiring singer recently released his own track “My Side of Things.” At some point the Steelers franchise and fanbase will get tired of Bell’s act and even if the matter is resolved soon it has clearly not been a positive impact on the camp.

Pittsburgh start the season on the road in Cleveland for what might be the most interesting game on opening weekend. The Steelers are 10-1 in the last eleven meetings of the sides with the Brownies winning just two of the last eight meetings at Paul Brown Stadium. If there is to be a shift in this division then this could be a close game, but any comfortable Pittsburgh win could show that normal service is to be continued this year. Two mid-November road games will probably decide the season win total for Tomlin’s men as they head to Jacksonville and Denver in successive weeks. The heat of Florida and the thin air of Colorado will test big Ben as he takes on two tough defenses in those spots.

This is set to be a tougher division than ever before, and the health of big Ben Roethlisberger is never a given. If you are looking to back the Steelers in any of the major markets you should factor in a one or two game stretch where Roethlisberger does not make the start. The apparent lack of focus from the entire organisation in certain weeks coupled with the potential for this division to be a tighter affair than we’ve come to expect and makes me keep away from the over. Punters wishing to wager on them to be crowned Super Bowl Champions will hope that the Patriots regress. Any Steelers route to the Super Bowl invariably involves a clash with Belichick’s men. Historically those regular season slip ups have cost Pitsburgh dearly as instead of having homefield advantage in the post-season they are forced to stare headlong at a trip to Foxboro. They are the Liverpool of the NFL, it’s their year! Big Ben rivals Jack Wilshere in the reliability stakes

Baltimore Ravens 2017 Regular Season Record 9-7 Head Coach John Harbaugh Homefield M&T Bank Stadium (71,008) Super Bowl Odds 50/1 Divisional Odds 63/13 Season Win Total 8

This is a very solid franchise. In fact I cannot think of many professional sport teams around the world that are able to get more from their player personnel than the Baltimore Ravens obtain from their roster. They have assembled a great coaching staff and in John Harbaugh they have a man in charge who is an excellent in game coach as well as understanding what is required to succeed in this division. Joe Flacco enters his eleventh season as the Ravens quarterback and following on from a poor season last year the Ravens decided to draft in the first round Lamar Jackson from Louisville and bring in Robert Griffin III. Will this be a bounce back year for Flacco or will he be slowly ushered out of the back dar?

As always under coach Harbaugh I expect the Ravens’ defense to be a stellar outfit and they have, in Justin Tucker, by far the best kicker in football. Taking part in the Hall of Fame game in early August has meant an extra-long training camp which should only stand their rookies in good stead for the season ahead. Early reports on Flacco are good and he has put extra time in over the off-season to try and form connections with his playmakers. He needed to due to their poor offensive play last season which saw them gain just 4.6 yards per play during the last campaign.

I see another season in store for Baltimore where the defense has to win them games but last season they allowed just 18.9 points per game so if their offense can find a way to get If only the Ravens had the skills of veteran receiver Steve Smith at their disposal! to twenty points then they should win more than they lose. To improve their offensive play the Ravens have been active in the free agency market over the summer bringing in wide receivers John Brown from Arizona and Michael Crabtree from Oakland. These are interesting acquisitions to me and if they settle in Baltimore they could provide the platform for a better offensive showing. Let’s remember that with their powerful defense the Ravens don’t need to score thirty points per game, in most games they just need to find a way to get to twenty-four points.

Talk of Harbaugh being on the hot seat seems nonsense to me but if the Browns improve to make this division tougher and he sticks with Flacco then this could be a rough year. Any improvement from the Browns may decide the Ravens’ season win line as they have gone 18-2 over the Brownies since September 2008. For a team that perennially seems to go 8-8 or 9-7 a failure to register a 2-0 record against Cleveland may see them hit the under on the eight-win line.

Cincinnati Bengals 2017 Regular Season Record 7-9 Head Coach Marvin Lewis Homefield Paul Brown Stadium (65,515) Super Bowl Odds 125/1 Divisional Odds 10/1 Season Win Total 7

The Bungles are one of the least exciting of all of the NFL franchises. They play in an unglamorous city and bar wide receiver A.J. Green have few star players. What they have had though in recent years is a good work ethic and an ability to maximise the talent at their disposal. The offensive line problems that have plagued the Bengals in recent years that have seen Andy Dalton seem to have been eradicated. Cordy Glenn has been brought in from Buffalo and he should add some beef to their offensive line and allow Dalton more time before he finds himself chewing grass.

To alleviate the pressure that has built up in the local media on Dalton in recent years the Bengals have shipped AJ McCarron out to Buffalo. To replace McCarron as backup Cincinatti have brought in Matt Barkley so in effect they don’t have a backup! The Bengals are going to ride or die with Dalton. In view of that plan they will clearly have to lean on their ground game a lot so I expect more and more work for second year running back Joe Mixon. The young running back will be a good Fantasy Football pick for you FF lovers out there!

Dalton cannot manufacture plays with his legs as star wide receiver Green is often double covered and his other receivers simply aren’t good enough. They have relied on their defense in recent years to make up for the lack of an explosive offense but on the defensive side of the ball they are getting old. In 2015 they were conceding just 17.4 points per game but last season that figure had risen to 21.8 so they are effectively conceding an extra 4 ½ points each game. That level of regression, without an improvement on offense, can only mean one thing and that is the loss of more games. The loss through suspension of star linebacker, and complete lunatic, Vontaze Burfict for the first four games of the season is another blow to an already leaky looking defense.

What does the coach of this team have to do to get fired as Marvin Lewis is basically the NFL version of Arsene Wenger. He has maintained a level of competitiveness over the last decade without ever threatening to win the biggest prize of all. Yet again I am going to mention the Browns in another teams’ preview but again it is relevant as I sense the Bengals have regressed over recent years. Against Cleveland they have won seven straight games so if they split those meetings and go on 1-1 this season then that season win line of seven is in danger of going to the under. The Red Rifle – more of a water pistol than an AK47!

Cleveland Browns 2017 Regular Season Record 0-16 Head Coach Hue Jackson Homefield FirstEnergy Stadium (67,895) Super Bowl Odds 125/1 Divisional Odds 13/1 Season Win Total 5 ½

Finally, after many a mention so far this week we do in fact get to the Brownies. The season win total that the Browns have been set is in many ways incredible. For a team who have gone 1-31 over the last two years for a season win total to be set at 5 ½ is quite ridiculous. However, I have not ruled out the over and many well respected NFL observers believe that this team has the capability to push towards a Play Off spot.

Tyrod Taylor has come in from Buffalo and without being flashy or setting the box score a light Taylor is good. In fact Taylor is very good and just the kind of quarterback that the Browns need. Last season Cleveland had a -28 turnover differential and that is a horrific stat. To put this into perspective very rarely can you expect to win a game in the NFL if you lost the turnover battle by two. Cleveland were effectively doing this every single week of the season but the signing of Taylor should go a long way to address that issue. Last season in Buffalo Taylor threw just four interceptions and that ball security will aid the Browns’ defense enormously in this coming season. Cleveland have had a solid defense for many seasons now but they have been continually let down by an inept offense. Improvements on offense will enable their defensive unit to be even better.

Jarvis Landry coming in from Miam is a huge addition to the Browns’ wide receiving corps and he is just the sort of receiver that will link up well with Taylor’s low risk passing strategy. If Josh Gordon can turn up, keep fit and stay out of trouble then they have a big play man out wide to compliment Landry’s short to intermediate threat.

The major concern though is the Head Coach. Can you trust Hue Jackson to win six games to cash you your season win over 5 ½ bet? I am not sure that you can as to go 1-31 in your first two seasons as a NFL Head Coach is actually really difficult to do. Especially when four of those games have been against Andy Dalton! I am also hoping that if the season does not start well then Jackson perseveres with Taylor rather than bottling it by throwing out first round draft pick Baker Mayfield.

The schedule compilers have given them a terrible start though as they host Pittsburgh on opening day before heading to New Orleans to take on the Saints. Even if they go 0-2 in those games it is about the Browns putting in performances that give them hope moving forward. If they can hold their nerve then the 1-31 but Hue is still smiling! five weeks 3-7 see them play the Jets (H), @ Oakland, Baltimore (H), Rams (H) and @ Tampa Bay. By the start of Week 8 they could easily be 3-4 and at that point the over on the 5 ½ season win could look a very good bet!

Minnesota Vikings 2017 Regular Season Record 13-3 Head Coach Mike Zimmer Homefield U.S. Bank Stadium (66,655) Super Bowl Odds 14/1 Divisional Odds 13/8 Season Win Total 10

Momentum in the futures betting has pushed the Vikings towards the ten-win mark in the season win total market. Mike Zimmer is a great coach and in my mind he is easily the best in the Division but the impact on the team by the off season signing of Kirk Cousins is the real conundrum for bettors to unpick. How successful will Cousins be in Minnesota? Cousins has a reputation as a bit of a gun slinger who at times is less than careful with the football. At times he airs the ball out into unnecessarily dangerous situations and that is not how this team is best equipped to win games as they are a ball club built on Zimmer’s tough defense. Last season they were the best defense in football by a points per game ratio as they allowed just 15.8 points per game.

Offensively they have lost running back Jerrick McKinnon and I sense that could be a bigger loss than many may initially think it would be. McKinnon was a very effective all purpose back and with Cousins’ propensity to be careless with the ball he would have been an ideal check down option for him rather than taking a far riskier option. The return of Dalvin Cook from injury will be a big deciding factor on the potential success that this team will have. If Cook returns fully fit then their offense should be dynamic enough to score enough points. One concern for me though is the connection that both of their released quarterbacks, Sam Bradford and Case Keenum, had with wide receiver Adam Thielen. He had a fantastic season last year but is he the real deal? If Cousins is unable to link up with him then the pressure would really increase on Stefon Diggs to be the go to big play guy.

The Vikes have been handed a very tough start with their opening three road games being at the Packers, Rams and Eagles. By any stretch of the imagination that is a tough opening slate of games and they could easily be, at best, 2-3 after their first five games. With successive road games at the beginning of December in New England then in noisy Seattle I can see some tough times ahead for this well fancied team.

In a division against a playmaker such as Green Bays Aaron Rodgers and two ball clubs, in Chicago and Detroit, who have made major changes at the Head Coach positions there seems no reward in taking the over on the season win total. The line of 10 wins looks set bang on and it will be interesting to see how Cousins settles in. On a week to week perspective they may offer some excellent opportunities but from the season long angle does not make me want to pull any notes of my wallet.

Coach Zimmer bringing those Purple People Eater days back to Minneapolis

Green Bay Packers 2017 Regular Season Record 7-9 Head Coach Mike McCarthy Homefield Lambeau Field (81,435) Super Bowl Odds 12/1 Divisional Odds 16/11 Season Win Total 10

Are the Packers the very definition of a one-man team? I don’t care what anyone tries to tell me as in my mind Aaron Rodgers is the best player in football. Over the past few seasons they have had a lot of flaws in a range of areas but they have at least made attempts to address some of them this off season. On the offensive side of the ball Jimmy Graham has travelled from the Pacific north west off Seattle to join the Pack from Seattle. Graham is the type of red zone option that Rodgers has desperately needed in recent years but has not had available to him. It’s not all good news though as Rodgers’ safety blanket of Jordy Nelson has left and in recent years the ability of Rogers to play a full sixteen game season has been brought into question.

Mike Pettine has been brought in to sort out a defense that conceded the seventh most points per game in the whole NFL last season. Admittedly, due to the way the Green Bay offense explodes extra pressure can be applied to their defensive unit but at times last season they were poor. It was not just last season though as the Packers D has been a major concern for many seasons now so that appointment is a positive move in my book. At times under previous Defensive Co-ordinator Dom Capers the Packers looked a really shoddy unit and placed far too much pressure on Rodgers to carry them to victory. I sense a better scheme from Pettine that should see them be far more competitive over the course of the regular season and obviously be a much tougher proposition if they made the post-season.

However, whatever changes they make in other coaching positions they still have Mike McCarthy in overall charge. I am sure that McCarthy has been the benefactor of having two of the greatest quarterbacks, Brett Favre and Rodgers, to ever have played a game. In all honesty I am not sure he knows what he is doing.

Green Bay have a lot of flaws, but they have caught a break from the schedule makers as they have on paper a friendly looking start The ‘GOAT’ Aaron Rodgers to the season. They open up against Chicago and Minnesota before heading to Washington before returning to host the Bills. You would expect that the Pack will be 3-1 or 2-2 at worst before they head to Detroit in Week 5. If they stay in the mix then a final three games of @Chicago, @Jets and home to Detroit should help get them over the line and into the Play Offs. I also believe that if Rodgers is firing on all cylinders then they should surpass that season win line of 10.

Detroit Lions 2017 Regular Season Record 9-7 Head Coach Matt Patricia Homefield Ford Field (65,000) Super Bowl Odds 50/1 Divisional Odds 8/1 Season Win Total 8

For many seasons we have seen Matt Patricia in that big red fleece with a pencil behind his ear as he answered to Bill Belichick as Patricia was Defensive Co-ordinator at the New England Patriots. This is a tough gig that he is accepted in Detroit as even after a 9-7 season last year I sense the job he has inherited from Jim Caldwell is a massive one! Caldwell had a 36-28 record over his four seasons in charge but the window for success of this team has shut firmly shut.

The roster in Detroit looks very thin on quality to me and despite the Patriots’ success the Belichick coaching tree has not produced many successes when they move away from the great man. The addition of running back LeGarrette Blount is clearly a Patricia signing and indicates a move towards a more physical ground game to take the pressure off quarterback Matt Stafford. For too long the pressure has been placed on Stafford to do magical things from under centre and he just does not have weapons anymore to continue rescuing them.

The schedule compilers may have given them a break though as on paper it’s a potentially soft start to the season. A home game against the New York Jets to open the season is followed by a trip to san Francisco in Week Two. However, they are made to pay for this later on in the season as at the Matt Stafford in relaxed mood end of October/November/beginning of December they have been handed a torrid set of fixtures. On 28th October they travel to Seattle who may be in a re-building stage but will still be a physical challenge. The Lions then travel to divisional rivals Minnesota who are one of the toughest defenses in football. Following that they travel to Solider Field to play Chicago before then hosting the hard hitting Carolina Panthers. Just four days later on Thanksgiving Day they host the Bears before a ten day rest of their aching limbs before the monsters of the LA Rams hit town. By the completion of that game on December 2nd I sense Matthew Stafford will be sat in the largest ice bath imaginable.

With a season win total set at 8 games all of the risk to me is to the under and given the strength of the Vikings and the magic of Aaron Rodgers who in their right mind will take the over? It is strange that a team like Cleveland can go 0-16 yet have a win line set at 5 ½ whilst the Lions on the back of a 9-7 season are priced up at 8 wins. I have been through their schedule and just do not see where 7 wins come from let alone 8. Even games that I chalk up as winnable ones like the trip to Buffalo come in mid-December when the Lions’ season will be over and it will be zero degrees in upstate New York.

Chicago Bears 2017 Regular Season Record 5-11 Head Coach Matt Nagy Homefield Soldier Field (61,500) Super Bowl Odds 150/1 Divisional Odds 11/1 Season Win Total 6 ½

A new Head Coach is on show in Chicago as Matt Nagy takes the helm at Soldier Field following a successful stint in Kansas City where he was firstly the quarterbacks coach before moving to Offensive Co-ordinator. I am sure that much of Nagy’s appeal was the way in which he maximised the abilities of Alex Smith and there are similarities to be drawn between Smith and Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. In his rookie season Trubisky went 4-8 in twelve starts with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions as former coach Jon Fox was cautious in his play calling for the young man. Trubisky ran for 248 yards, very Smith-like, which was the most for a Bears quarterback in fourteen years.

The question that we must all ask ourselves as we head into a season for the Chicago Bears is whether coach Fox got a lot of production from little talent? If you look through the Bears’ roster in recent years they have been very weak, especially in the play making positions. Undoubtedly some of that can be attributed to Fox but General Manager Ryan Pace should shoulder some of that responsibility in terms of the quality of players the Bears have brought in. That 5-11 record of last season is arguably as good as the roster the Bears possessed last season could have hoped for and his defensive background helped a below average unit outperform.

Last season Chicago were the second worst offense in the NFL from a yards per game perspective and none of their off-season acquisitions fills me with any confidence that they will be an better. The one ray of hope is that when Kansas City handed over the play calling reigns to Nagy at the end of last season they went 4- 1 so the New Jersey native clearly has some interesting thoughts on offense. Can his skills on one side of the ball translate over to running an organisation as a whole? Only time will tell but the quality of personnel at his disposal makes it look a longer than one season re-building job. Solider Field – The home of the Bears

The schedule compilers may have given Nagy a break in his first role as a NFL Head Coach. Games at home against a declining Seattle and an enigmatic Tampa Bay in the first four games of the season present excellent opportunities to gain early victories. A trip to Miami in Week Five, following the Bears early Bye Week, could see Chicago move to a 3- 2 start to the season. A positive start to the campaign would stand them in good stead for a Week 8-10 set of games of home to the Jets, @ Buffalo and then home to Detroit. If they have momentum going into those games there is no reason why they can’t go at least 2-1 in those weeks. The way the schedule pans out I sense the value on the season win line is to the over but in a division with two potential Super Bowl winners in Green Bay and Minnesota there is no way I can take the over!

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