(CUWS) Outreach Journal # 1244

USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

CWS Outreach Journal 1244 9 December 2016

Feature Item: “Options for Reducing the Deficit: 2017 to 2026.” Report authored by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO); Published by the CBO; Released December 8, 2016. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/52142 The Congress faces an array of policy choices as it confronts the challenges posed by the amount of federal debt held by the public—which has more than doubled relative to the size of the economy since 2007—and the prospect of continued growth in that debt over the coming decades if the large annual budget deficits projected under current law come to pass. To help inform lawmakers, CBO periodically issues a compendium of policy options that would help to reduce the deficit. This edition reports the estimated budgetary effects of various options and highlights some of the advantages and disadvantages of those options. This volume presents 115 options that would decrease federal spending or increase federal revenues over the next decade. The options included in this volume come from various sources. Some are based on proposed legislation or on the budget proposals of various Administrations; others come from Congressional offices or from entities in the federal government or in the private sector. The options cover many areas—ranging from defense to energy, Social Security, and provisions of the tax code. The budgetary effects identified for most of the options span the 10 years from 2017 to 2026 (the period covered by CBO’s March 2016 baseline budget projections), although many of the options would have longer-term effects as well.

Discretionary Spending Option #8 - Reduce the Size of the Nuclear Triad https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52203 Option #9 - Build Only One Type of Nuclear Weapon for Bombers https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52204 Option #10 - Defer Development of the B-21 Bomber https://www.cbo.gov/budget-options/2016/52205

U.S. Nuclear Weapons 1. The U.S. Military's 2017 Defense Budget Protects Its Most Important Weapon: Submarines 2. James Mattis Warned that Land-Based Nuclear Missiles Pose False Alarm Danger 3. Some Funds Already Approved for ICBM Upgrade Program 4. U.S. Needs to Bolster Nuclear Arsenal and Missile Defense, Experts Say

Homeland Security/The Americas 1. Russia Is ‘No. 1 Threat’ to United States, Air Force Secretary Claims

Asia/Pacific 1. China Flight-Tests 10 DF-21 Missiles 2. Top Nuke Envoys of S. Korea, U.S. and Japan to Discuss N.K. Nuke Threat Next Week 3. China's Probe into S Korea's Lotte Group Unrelated to THAAD Deployment: Expert 4. China Has Built the Biggest and Baddest Conventional Submarine in the World 5. NK, Cuba Vow to Expand Friendly Ties 6. US Nuclear Negotiator Calls for Continued Pressure on N. Korea 7. PLA Jets Circled Taiwan: Official 8. North Korean Experts Explain What Kim Jong Un Wants 9. Russian Expert Says North Korea Has Effective Means of Delivering Nuclear Weapons 10. 'Long-Time Friend' of Xi's Appointed US Ambassador to China 11. North Korea Can Launch Nuclear Weapon but Target Accuracy May Be Lacking: U.S. Brass

Europe/Russia 1. IS ‘Plotting Drone Chemical Strike’

Middle East 1. Obama to Sign Iran Sanctions Bill 2. Iran’s Velayati: US Extension of Sanctions Clear Breach of JCPOA 3. President: Iran's Response to JCPOA Violation Would Be Decisive 4. Iranian Lawmakers Condemn US Violation of N. Deal, Urge Gov't to Reciprocate 5. Salehi: Iran Will Give Strong Reaction to US Breach of JCPOA 6. IAEA Report Confirms Iran’s Shipping of Excess Heavy Water 7. White House Claims ISA Renewal Not ‘Inconsistent’ with JCPOA

Commentary 1. Why Does Russia Revive the 'Nuclear Train' Program? 2. Rear Admiral: China's Development of H-20 Bomber Just in Time 3. Reciprocity Key to Dealing with Trump’s US 4. What's Japan's Strategic Intention for Deploying THAAD? Return to Top

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. The U.S. Military's 2017 Defense Budget Protects Its Most Important Weapon: Submarines By Dave Majumdar December 3, 2016 The final version of the 2017 National Defense Authorization Act, which just passed the House of Representatives earlier today, protects the U.S. Navy’s submarine fleet and fully funds America’s new Ohio Replacement Program (ORP) ballistic missile submarines. The bill passed by a wide bipartisan margin after tough negotiations with the U.S. Senate. “As we begin transitioning to a new administration, this measure makes a solid down payment on growing the fleet and meeting our security challenges on, below, and above the seas, by sustaining our path to a 308 ship fleet by 2021,” Congressman Joe Courtney (CT-02), ranking member of the Seapower and Projection Forces Subcommittee, told The National Interest in a statement. “I hope that the Senate will now quickly pass the conference report and send it to the President for his signature.” Courtney said that he was especially pleased with the new defense bill. The new NDAA starts to address the severe shortfalls facing the U.S. Navy’s submarine fleet as it struggles to continue building two Virginia-class submarines while also building the ORP. “This report maintains two critical elements that I fought to retain from the House bill passed last May, but were not in the Senate bill: the expansion of the National Sea-based Deterrence Fund (NSBDF) to authorize continuous production of components on the Ohio-class Replacement Program, and the restoration of advanced procurement funding for future Virginia-class submarines that will keep the program on track,” Courtney said. “I have worked closely with Chairman [J. Randy] Forbes in advancing these initiatives, and I am proud that this agreement retains our hard work.” For the Virginia-class submarine program, the NDAA authorizes two new boats for 2017 while adding advanced procurement money for sustaining a two per year build rate in 2018 and 2019. The total amount of funding goes $85 million over President Barack Obama’s budget request to ensure that the submarine industrial base can support the incorporation of the Virginia Payload Module in the forthcoming Block V Virginia-class submarines. The new NDAA also fully funds the $1.9 billion the President requested for the ORP program. Indeed, Courtney led the effort to ensure that the ORP would not go unfunded due to a protracted continuing resolution. “The report fully authorizes the $1.9 billion budget request for the Ohio Replacement, and retains a provision included in the House version by Courtney and Forbes to expand the National Sea-Based Deterrence Fund to allow for the continuous production of components related to the missile compartment on the new submarines,” reads a statement from Courtney’s office. “Navy estimates have found that continuous production would save 25 percent of the cost of procuring missile tubes alone by buying them in a cost efficient and level loaded approach.” Courtney and Forbes designed the NSBDF several years ago to ensure that the Navy can produce the new fleet while also meeting its other critical shipbuilding priorities. http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/the-us-militarys-2017-defense-budget-protects-its- most-18589 Return to Top

The Guardian (U.S. Edition) – New York, NY James Mattis Warned that Land-Based Nuclear Missiles Pose False Alarm Danger Trump’s pick for next US defence secretary has questioned need for US’s ICBMs, which are ready to launch within minutes in event of an attack By Julian Borger in Washington Sunday, 4 December 2016 James Mattis, the retired general Donald Trump has chosen to be the next US defence secretary, has questioned the need for land-based nuclear missiles on the grounds they represent a higher risk than other weapons of being launched on a false alarm. Mattis raised doubts about US nuclear orthodoxy in a statement to Congress in 2015, raising the issue over whether nuclear deterrence should continue to rest on a “triad” of weapon types: land- based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched missiles and warheads carried by air force bombers. During the campaign, Trump vowed to proceed with current plans to modernise all three legs of the triad, with an estimated price tag of half a trillion dollars over 20 years. In his remarks to the Senate about US national security priorities, Mattis struck a more sceptical tone. He asked whether the US should declare that the sole purpose of its nuclear arsenal was to deter nuclear attack, a statement that would narrow its purpose and potentially lower the number of warheads required. The present US nuclear posture states that, in some circumstances, the current, 4,500-warhead arsenal has a role in deterring conventional or chemical weapon attack. “The nuclear stockpile must be tended to and fundamental questions must be asked and answered,” Mattis told the Senate armed services committee. “We must clearly establish the role of our nuclear weapons: do they serve solely to deter nuclear war? If so we should say so, and the resulting clarity will help to determine the number we need.” “Is it time to reduce the triad to a diad, removing the land‐based missiles? This would reduce the false alarm danger,” Mattis said. The US has about 400 ICBMs on a “hair-trigger alert”, ready to launch within minutes if early warning systems show an incoming attack. Several former defence secretaries and generals have argued that they should be taken off this state of readiness because of the danger of false alarms, especially in the age of cyber warfare. Some former officials, including William Perry, defence secretary in the Clinton administration, have argued ICBMs should be scrapped altogether. Perry said he knew Mattis well, having worked for the marine, then a colonel, for three years during Perry’s time at the Pentagon. The two have since taken part in conferences and panel discussions on nuclear weapons and defence. “He’s very intelligent, a very serious thinker, nothing frivolous at all about him,” Perry told the Guardian. “My view of him is that he will be a solid addition to Trump’s team. He brings an experience in defence and national security that is lacking.” “More importantly,” Perry said, “he is a man who says what he thinks. He’s not easily intimidated. He is known for speaking truth to power and that will be a great asset in this administration.” Perry added that, during conversations he had had with Mattis and George Shultz, Ronald Reagan’s secretary of state, the marine general showed a deep understanding of the dangers of nuclear

weapons. “I would not expect him to be recommending anything rash with nuclear weapons,” Perry said. “His views on a number of issues are certainly more hawkish than mine but I don’t think he’s over the top on any issue that I’m aware of,” the former secretary of defence said. He added that he did not expect Mattis would seek to torpedo last year’s multilateral nuclear deal with Iran, in which Tehran agreed to significant curbs on its nuclear activities in return for sanctions relief. “While he’s said to be hawkish on Iran, I do not believe he favours scrapping the agreement,” Perry said. Mattis has voiced deep scepticism about Iran’s motives and warned that the US and its allies would have to remain vigilant for violations. But in April he argued against walking away from the nuclear deal, as Trump has threatened to do. “One point I want to make is there’s no going back,” Mattis said at an event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Absent a real violation – I mean, a clear and present violation that was enough to stimulate the Europeans to action as well – I don’t think that we can.” Were the US to renege on its agreement, Mattis said, “I believe we would be alone if we did, and unilateral economic sanctions from us would not have anywhere near the impact of an allied approach to this.” Mattis’s views on the right size of the US nuclear arsenal are likely to become relevant early in a Trump administration. Key decisions to pursue the comprehensive modernisation plan envisaged by the Obama administration would have to be taken within months, and expenditure would peak in the 2020s. The Trump White House will have to consider whether the US can afford simultaneous nuclear upgrades and an expansion of conventional military forces, as the president- elect has promised – all while cutting taxes. “Candidate Trump basically said we are going to do it all,” Perry said. “I imagine that will be rethought, reconsidered.” Generals would have an open mind toward nuclear weapon adjustments depending on the cost to their conventional forces, he said. “If it turns out that Trump is willing to write the defence department a blank cheque – if the generals see the nuclear weapons as coming for free and not at the cost of conventional weapons – then they will support them. But if they see that in order to proceed with this programme, they are going to have cut back on some of the things they want, all the things that are really dear to their hearts, then it will be a different issue.” https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/04/james-mattis-defense-secretary-nuclear- missiles-trump Return to Top

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Minot Daily News – Minot, ND Some Funds Already Approved for ICBM Upgrade Program By ELOISE OGDEN, Regional Editor December 5, 2016 A portion of the federal funding is in place for a major upgrade of the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles including those of the 91st Missile Wing at Minot Air Force Base. “Congress has approved $75.2 million for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program in fiscal year 2016,” said Leah Bryant, chief of Public Affairs and legislative liaison for the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center at Kirtland AFB, N.M. For fiscal year 2017, the president’s budget requested $113.9 million from Congress, Bryant said. She said they are waiting for final congressional approval for fiscal year 2017. On Friday, Congressman Kevin Cramer announced the House of Representatives passed the Conference Report to S. 2943, the Senate version of the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2017. The legislation includes continuing to fund ICBM modernization and supports the Air Force proposal to structure the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program. The Senate vote on the bill is scheduled for this week. The ICBM program involves upgrading missile communications, launch facilities and launch control centers. This past summer, the Air Force kicked off proposal competitions for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent to replace the 1960s-era Minuteman III ICBM, and the Long Range Standoff (LRSO) weapon, according to Defense News. Minot AFB’s 91st Missile Wing is one of three ICBM wings in the Air Force responsible for operating, maintaining and securing the 150 Minuteman III missiles in underground facilities in several counties in northwest and north central North Dakota. The other wings are at F.E. Warren AFB, Wyo., and Malmstrom AFB, Mont. Recently, a team from Lockheed-Martin met with Minot Area Chamber of Commerce officials to discuss the program and the impact it will have on the local community. “Going forward, we will annually request funding from Congress to continue executing the GBSD program,” Bryant said. She said those future year requests will also be made through the annual president’s budget submissions to Congress. “The Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center estimates the total GBSD acquisition cost will be $62.3 billion,” Bryant said. The Long-Range Stand-Off (LRSO) weapon is being developed to replace the aging AGM-86B air- launched cruise missile, according to the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center Public Affairs. “The LRSO will be a reliable, flexible, long-ranging, and survivable weapon system to complement the nuclear triad,” Gen. Robin Rand, commander of Air Force Global Strike Command, told the Senate Armed Forces Committee earlier this year. “LRSO will ensure the bomber force can continue to hold high-value targets at risk in an evolving threat environment, to include targets within an area-denial environment.” Minot AFB’s 5th Bomb Wing has the B-52 bomber. Constance Baroudos and Peter Huessy reported in Breaking Defense in July that critics of U.S. nuclear modernization claim the LRSO can be eliminated without harming America’s security Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

interests. But the LRSO provides America with a unique capability to deter adversaries from using nuclear force and projects credible power while keeping U.S. forces safe. “Updated standoff weapons ensure America maintains a credible and reliable strategic deterrent force. Standoff cruise missiles are launched from a bomber outside defended airspace and penetrate enemy territory — allowing a non- stealthy aircraft like the B-52 to strike well-protected targets,” they said. Huessy, founder and president of GeoStrategic Analyis, a defense consulting firm in Potomac, Md. who has partnered with Task Force 21, Minot’s base retention and new mission committee, for nuclear triad symposiums that the Minot group has held. Mark Jantzer, chairman of Task Force 21, said the most recent symposium was held in September in Washington, D.C., and attended by about 200 people. Experts on the nuclear triad and members of Congress are among the speakers at the symposiums. Bryant said no costs may be released for the LRSO program due to its classified nature. “However, it was also approved to start its TMRR (Technology Maturation and Risk Reduction) phase” of the program, she said. http://www.minotdailynews.com/news/local-news/2016/12/some-funds-already-approved-for- icbm-upgrade-program/ Return to Top

National Defense Magazine – Arlington, VA OPINION/Article U.S. Needs to Bolster Nuclear Arsenal and Missile Defense, Experts Say By Jon Harper December 6, 2016 As the U.S. nuclear arsenal ages and adversaries develop better long-range missiles, the United States needs to enhance its deterrence capabilities, lawmakers and experts said during a recent high-profile gathering of members of the national security community. Concerns about North Korea should prod policymakers into action, Sen. Dan Sullivan, R-Alaska, said during a recent panel discussion at the Reagan National Security Forum in Simi Valley, California. “At some point we’re going to wake up and our public is going to wake up to the fact that the head of North Korea … is probably going to have the capability to hit our country with an intercontinental ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead on top of it,” he said. “Is that going to happen in two years or three years or 10 years? We don’t really know. But it is going to happen at some point and … what we need to be doing now is preparing … to have a much more robust missile defense,” he added. The United States should enhance its tracking and sensor systems and increase the number of interceptors in its arsenal, he argued. The election of Donald Trump to be the next president bodes well for investment in these capabilities, according to Sullivan.

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama “It is an area where the president-elect has talked a lot about the need to ramp that up, so I think you’re going to see a lot of focus on missile defense” during his administration, he said. More investment is needed to ensure that other nations respect U.S. capabilities, said Ellen Tauscher, a Democrat who previously served as under secretary of state for arms control and international security affairs, and special envoy for strategic stability and missile defense. The existing ground-based system has had mixed results in testing, including failures to intercept mock enemy warheads. That has sparked doubts among adversaries that it could actually do the job, she said. While bolstering its missile defenses, the United States must also enhance its own nuclear arsenal to strengthen deterrence, the panelists said. As legacy systems approach the end of their service lives, the Defense Department is moving forward with plans to acquire new intercontinental ballistic missiles, bombers, ballistic missile submarines and air-launched cruise missiles that could deliver nuclear weapons. Warhead modernization is also in the works. The Pentagon and independent nuclear experts project that the plans, if fully implemented, would cost hundreds of billions of dollars in the coming decades. The bill to upgrade the nuclear enterprise will be “massive,” said former Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., who now servers as senior counsel at Covington & Burling LLP. “We’ve allowed it to atrophy and we’ve allowed a lot of obligations to pile up that should have been taken care of” earlier, he said. “All three legs of the triad have basically run out of their life and need to be replaced all at the same time. We should never have allowed that to happen.” Sullivan expects Congress to spend about $234 billion over the next 10 years on nuclear modernization. The idea of investing more taxpayer dollars in this and missile defense enjoys strong bipartisan support at a time when political gridlock has become the norm in Washington, D.C., he noted. “That’s a lot of money but I think it’s important enough and it can be done,” he said. Nevertheless, finding enough funding to meet the nuclear modernization needs of the services won’t be an easy task. The Navy and Air Force also have ambitious plans to modernize their conventional forces during the same period. The Navy is slated to buy new aircraft carriers, destroyers, attack submarines and fighter jets, among other items. The Air Force intends to procure large quantities of the F-35 joint strike fighter, the B-21 bomber and the KC-46 tanker. Analysts are warning about the approaching modernization “bow wave” that is expected to hit the Defense Department in the coming years. Senior defense officials recognize that the price tag will be high. “The real question I think is going to be do we go down the path of trying to recapitalize both nuclear and conventional [assets] at the same time?” Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein told National Defense after the panel discussion concluded. “That’s what drives the bills,” he said. “We’re going to have to figure out a way to pay for it.” Lawmakers have created a national sea-based deterrence fund outside of the Navy’s regular shipbuilding account to help pay for the new Columbia-class ballistic missile submarine. National Defense asked Goldfein whether he believes the Air Force should receive similar consideration as it seeks to acquire new nuclear missiles and bombers. Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

“I don’t know the vehicle that’s the best in terms of whether [the money should come from] this fund or that fund,” he said. “To me, it’s a broader question of how do we as a nation ensure that we are appropriately modernizing both our conventional forces that have atrophied and our nuclear forces that have atrophied. And we’ve got to get at both and there’s probably a number of vehicles we can think about on how to do that.” The Air Force’s top officer said policymakers should consider the strategic benefits that the nuclear arsenal provides, not just the price tag. “We tend to get the question, 'Can we afford this?’ I would offer you a different question, can we afford not to do this?” he said. “You take a look at the two world wars, we had 75 million folks lost” from all the countries involved, he added. “Since the introduction of nuclear weapons we haven’t seen anything close [to that level of casualties among the world’s major powers]. So I think this is something that we have to have a debate on.” http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/blog/Lists/Posts/Post.aspx?ID=2371 Return to Top

Sputnik International – Russian Information Agency Why Russia's Revived 'Ghost Trains' Fuel So Much Fear in the West 4 December 2016 Commenting on the recent successful pop-up launch tests of a Russian-made intercontinental ballistic missile on the advanced Barguzin rail-based strategic missile complex, German media have sounded a clear alarm, calling it "a nightmare," however noting that it comes only in response to the west's build-up on Russia's borders. The testing took place at the Plesetsk Cosmodrome in early November, and paves the way for full- scale flight development tests. "Pop-up launch tests are conducted to determine whether the complex is operational. The missile and the transporter-launcher container were developed some time ago, but the launching platform is a novel solution. The trials are meant to test its performance," Russian Defense analyst Victor Murakhovsky told Radio Sputnik earlier in November. The test marks the revival of the nuclear-trains project originally dating back the Soviet-era. In 1987, the USSR decided to place its missiles on railways, taking advantage of its large and diverse railroad network, in which a train could hide from satellite reconnaissance. Each of the 12 Soviet ‘nuke trains' was armed with three RT-23 Molodets (SS-24 Scalpel) intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) carrying 10 warheads. From space, the trains looked like ordinary refrigerator cars. In accordance with the START II treaty, Russia removed these trains from operational use in 2005 and completely decommissioned them in 2007. The new project, codenamed "Barguzin" after a strong Baikal wind, is not subjected to the treaty and surpasses its predecessors in capabilities.

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Every "Barguzin" train will be armed with six ICBMs RS-24 Yars (a land equivalent of the submarine-launched Bulava). The new "nuke train" is similar to a nuclear-capable submarine in its function. The cars are so solid that they can resist the explosion of a nuclear warhead just several hundred meters away. A train can run for a month autonomously and travel up to 1,000 kilometers per day. The system is expected to be developed by 2018. Five "Barguzin" regiments are expected to enter Russia's Strategic Missiles Forces by 2020. "Soviet-era platforms employed railway cars, different in size from standard rail carriages. The new missile complex fits onto the standard rail gauge. The wagons carrying [the recently tested] missiles resemble a freight refrigerator car for instance," Murakhovsky explained. Commenting on the recent tests, German news website Welt.de and news magazine Stern have called the train "a nightmare." However the outlets note that the revival of the so-called "ghost trains" comes in response to what Moscow sees as the "West's crossing of the red line" in Eastern Europe, right on Russia's borders. The outlets point to NATO's military build-up in Eastern Europe and in the Baltic states. In a separate comment on the issue, Russian military commentator Vasily Sychev noted that Barguzin emerged only in response to the US' Prompt Global Strike (PGS) project, which is a system that can deliver a precision-guided conventional weapon airstrike anywhere in the world within one hour, in a similar manner to a nuclear ICBM. Such a weapon would allow the US to respond far more swiftly than is possible with conventional forces. In September 2014, President Putin mentioned PGS among a number of the new threats Russia faced, along with the US Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system in Alaska, the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System in Europe, and increased NATO activity in eastern Europe. Deputy Prime Minister in charge of defense industry Dmitry Rogozin warned that Russia would upgrade its strategic nuclear forces and aerospace defenses in response to the PGS system. Victor Murakhovsky said that those who refer to the train as "a sheer nightmare" for foreign intelligence services have every reason for such a reference. "I would agree with this since there are no attributes which could be used to detect this rail-based missile complex," he said. "There is a new launching platform and a new combat control system which uses protected digital communication channels. There are new input programs for missions," he detailed. Hence the German media is right in its alarm that the feared Russian trains will be able to capture any strategic targets in the West. The trains however will remain solely on the Russian territory as the size of Russia's railway gauge is broader than that of Europe. Rail tracks in the territories of Russia and the former Soviet Union were constructed using broad- gauge track (1,520 millimeter, or roughly 5 feet). Most European railways west of the Baltic states, as well as 60 percent of the railways in the world, use standard-gauge track (1,435 millimeter). The origins of the difference in rail gauges between Europe and the former Soviet Union extend back to the 19th century.

For Russia, the different rail gauge served a strategic military purpose by complicating the ability of hostile militaries to move troops and materiel into the country by rail. https://sputniknews.com/world/201612041048148204-germany-russia-nuclear-trains/ Return to Top

TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia Russia Developing Robot Able to Imitate Any Submarine This submarine imitator provides for up to 15-16 hours of naval exercises, reproducing an enemy submarine’s maneuvering, including at high speed December 06, 2016 MOSCOW, December 6. /TASS/. Specialists of Russia’s Rubin Central Design Bureau for Marine Engineering have developed a conceptual design of a seaborne robotized system called Surrogat for holding naval exercises, the design bureau’s press office told TASS on Tuesday. Currently negotiations are under way with the Navy on this project, the press office said. Surrogat is equipped with a lithium-ion battery. This submarine imitator provides for up to 15-16 hours of naval exercises, reproducing an enemy submarine’s maneuvering, including at high speed, over this time. The robot’s relatively large size (about 17 meters long) and the ability to carry towed sonar arrays for various applications will help realistically reproduce an enemy submarine’s physical fields - acoustic and electromagnetic, the Rubin design bureau said. The imitator’s modular design allows changing its functionality: Surrogat will be able to imitate both a conventional and a nuclear-powered submarine, and also to carry out terrain mapping and reconnaissance. "Today, combat submarines have to be involved for exercises or tests and this practice distracts them from carrying out their basic missions. The use of an unmanned imitator will help avoid this and cut the cost of drills. Besides, a submarine without a crew reduces risks while keeping simulated scenarios realistic," Rubin CEO Igor Vilnit told TASS. "This apparatus will be distinguished by its simplicity in operation and the low cost of its maintenance and upgrade. Now we’re holding consultations with Navy representatives to make the imitator fully meet the Navy’s requirements," he said. The Rubin design bureau also does not rule out that foreign customers may display interest in Surrogat. The autonomous unmanned submarine Surrogat will have a displacement of about 40 tons, a cruising range of about 600 miles at a speed of 5 knots, a maximum speed of over 24 knots and the maximum immersion depth of 600 meters. http://tass.com/defense/917035 Return to Top

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C. Russia Tests Nuclear-Capable Drone Sub Unmanned underwater vehicle a strategic threat By Bill Gertz December 8, 2016 Russia conducted a test of a revolutionary nuclear-capable drone submarine that poses a major strategic threat to U.S. ports and harbors. U.S. intelligence agencies detected the test of the unmanned underwater vehicle, code-named Kanyon by the Pentagon, during its launch from a Sarov-class submarine on Nov. 27, said Pentagon officials familiar with reports of the test. No details were available about the location or results of the test. Pentagon spokesman Capt. Jeff Davis declined to comment. “We closely monitor Russian underwater military developments, but we will not comment specifically about them,” Davis said. Development of the new drone submarine was first disclosed by the Washington Free Beacon in September 2015 and then confirmed by the Russian military two months later. Russian officials said the secret program was mistakenly disclosed. Russia calls the drone development program the “Ocean Multipurpose System ‘Status-6.’” The developer is Russia’s TsKB MT Rubin design bureau, the defense industry entity that builds all Russia’s submarines. U.S. intelligence agencies estimate the Kanyon secret underwater drone will be equipped with megaton-class warheads—the largest nuclear weapons in existence, with the killing power of millions of tons of TNT. The weapon likely could be used against U.S. ports and bases, including those used by ballistic missile submarines. The two U.S. nuclear missile submarine bases are located at Kings Bay, Georgia, just north of the Florida border, and Puget Sound in Washington State. Russia’s nuclear weapons development in recent years has alarmed American military leaders in part due to a new doctrine adopted by Moscow that increases its reliance on nuclear forces in a conflict. The new doctrine indicates that Russia will quickly escalate to the use of nuclear arms to compensate for its aging and outdated conventional forces. U.S. intelligence agencies also have detected Russia’s development of new low-yield tactical nuclear weapons—arms that could be used more easily in regional conflicts. Former Pentagon official Mark Schneider said the test of the underwater nuclear delivery vehicle poses a new strategic threat. “The Status-6, a nuclear powered, nuclear armed drone submarine, is the most irresponsible nuclear weapons program that Putin’s Russia has come up with,” said Schneider, now with the National Institute for Public Policy. “Status-6 is designed to kill civilians by massive blast and fallout,” he said, noting that such targeting violates the law of armed conflict.

According to a Russian document disclosed on state television Nov. 10, 2015, the weapon is a self- propelled underwater craft capable of carrying a nuclear warhead up to 6,200 miles. The vehicle can submerge to a depth of 3,280 feet and travel at speeds of up to 56 knots. A drawing of the drone submarine shows it will be nuclear powered, controlled by surface ships, and supported by a Sarov submarine. Russia’s Sarov has been described in Russian press reports as a diesel electric-powered vessel for testing new weapons and technology. It also has been described as an intelligence-gathering submarine. The Russian document said Russia planned to build a Kanyon prototype by 2019 and begin testing that year. The Nov. 27 test indicates the document may have been a disinformation operation aimed at deceiving the United States about the program. U.S. intelligence agencies assessed that the 2015 leak was Moscow’s attempt to warn the United States about its displeasure with U.S. missile defenses in Europe and the deployment of missile defense ships to the region. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters one day after the leak that classified information had been accidentally disclosed—an unusual public admission of a security error that has raised concerns about false Russian strategic messaging. The Russian nuclear arms buildup has coincided with what U.S. officials say are unprecedented public statements by Russian leader Vladimir Putin about nuclear weapons in response to Western opposition to Moscow’s military annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. In addition to the nuclear-tipped drone, Russian nuclear modernization includes a new class of ballistic missile submarines, new submarine-launched ballistic missiles, two new land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, and a new long-range bomber. Russia also is building a new railroad-based missile system. The U.S. Navy is developing new underwater drones, but none will be nuclear armed. Schneider, the former Pentagon official who has held a number of positions involving strategic weapons, said reports from Russia indicate the drone sub will be armed with a 100-megaton warhead. “The Russian government daily Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported that to achieve ‘extensive radioactive contamination’ the weapon ‘could envisage using the so-called cobalt bomb, a nuclear weapon designed to produce enhanced amounts of radioactive fallout compared to a regular atomic warhead,'” Schneider said. “A cobalt bomb is a ‘doomsday’ weapons concept conceived during the Cold War, but apparently never actually developed,” he said. Testing of the drone, which is said to be powered by a nuclear reactor with limited shielding, poses environmental risks. A guidance failure could result in an undersea nuclear disaster. “The Obama State Department appears to be asleep at the helm on this issue,” Schneider said, noting the New START arms treaty requires notification of new offensive strategic weapons in a U.S.-Russia commission.

NPR (National Public Radio) – Washington, D.C. Russia Seen Moving New Missiles to Eastern Europe By GEOFF BRUMFIEL December 8, 2016 In what could mark an escalation of tensions with the West, commercial satellite images suggest that Russia is moving a new generation of nuclear-capable missiles into Eastern Europe. Russia appears to be preparing to permanently base its Iskander missile system in Kaliningrad, a sliver of territory it controls along the Baltic coast between Lithuania and Poland. Arms control experts shared fresh satellite imagery with NPR, which they say provides evidence that the Iskander will soon be housed in the Russian-controlled enclave. Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

The images show ground being cleared for tent-like shelters used at other Iskander bases, says Jeffrey Lewis, a nonproliferation expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. "The pattern, and the size, and the location strongly suggest to us that this is the beginning phase of construction of the shelters for Iskander," Lewis says. Lewis and Finnish defense analyst Veli-Pekka Kivimäki discovered the construction through digital sleuthing. First, they searched Russia's Facebook, known as VKontakte, for images taken by military conscripts assigned to Iskander units (Russian grunts are prolific on social media, according to Lewis). Comparing the images posted by conscripts to the satellite imagery, they were able to pinpoint the missile base in Kaliningrad where the Iskanders have sometimes been sent on training exercises. They then monitored the bases until they saw construction of what they recognized as permanent storage structures used for Iskander missiles. Lewis says placing Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad is a provocative act. Kaliningrad has been controlled by Russia since World War II. It lies far to the west of Russia's own border, putting any missiles based there within range of additional targets in Europe. "Things that are in Kaliningrad... can reach places that they could not otherwise reach in Russia," Lewis says. Lewis and other experts believe Russia may be also developing a longer-range cruise missile that would allow the Iskander system to reach targets in Western Europe as well. That missile, if it does exist, would violate the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which prohibits medium- range cruise missiles from being deployed on the ground. If Russia has decided to permanently position Iskander in Kaliningrad, "It may be in response to a number of things," says retired Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack, who served as defense attaché to Russia from 2012 to 2014. The U.S. has recently deployed a missile defense system in Romania and is building a second base in Poland. U.S. and European officials say those sites are to defend against potential ballistic launches from Iran, but Zwack says that Russia views them as provocations. The new Polish missile defense site would be within range of the Iskander, adds Lewis. But Zwack says it's important not to overreact. Russia already has nuclear-capable systems based in Kaliningrad, including SS-21 ballistic missiles. The new Iskanders will "freak the local neighbors," he says, but they "will not change any strategic equation, because if they go into tactical mode, it's the end of the world anyway." Ultimately, Zwack says he believes any decision to put Iskanders into Kaliningrad is about sending a message to NATO and the West that Russia disapproves of their activities. "It ups the ante in the region," he says. http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2016/12/08/504737811/russia-seen-moving-new- missiles-to-eastern-europe Return to Top

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama TASS Russian News Agency – Moscow, Russia US Senate Prohibits Defense Cooperation with Russia The overall US military budget for the next year will stand at almost $619 billion December 09, 2016 WASHINGTON, December 8. /TASS/. The US Senate passed the bill on the Pentagon’s 2017 budget Thursday, which prohibits military cooperation with Russia and allocates funds to support Washington’s allies in Europe. The overall US military budget for the next year will stand at almost $619 billion. The bill is yet to be signed into law by outgoing US President Barack Obama. White House request Members of Congress committees on defense and military issues earlier said they had granted the Obama administration’s request to allocate $3.4 billion to strengthen the defense of its NATO allies in Europe. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter said the measure was to "aggressive actions by Russia." The document also cites terrorist threat and the inflow of refuges from the Middle East as reasons for allotting the money. Limited Cooperation According to the bill, any defense cooperation with Moscow will be limited until the Secretary of Defense, in coordination with the Secretary of State, "provides a certification" that Russia stopped "to illegally occupy Crimea, to foster instability in Ukraine, and to maintain an aggressive posture towards its regional neighbors." In addition, US lawmakers insist on full implementation of the Minsk accords and a ceasefire agreement for southeastern Ukraine. "Bilateral military-to-military cooperation is unwarranted so long as Russia continues its aggressive and intimidating behavior towards U.S. partners and allies in Europe," the bill reads. The defense coopeation has not been halted completely, however. For example, the bill envisages funds to purchase 18 Russian-made RD-180 rocket engines to equip Atlas-V carrier rockets. Arms control The bill also contains a clause that blocks the allocation of $10 million for the Executive Office of the President of the United States until the Defense Secretary reports to the Congress about counter- measures that Washington had taken against alleged violation by Russia of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty). In addition, the bill imposes a direct ban on financing further implementation of the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) until the administration makes a number of reports to the Congress, including on Russia’s nuclear doctrine and on the treaty’s influence on the US nuclear arsenal. Open Skies The Congress also banned any expenditures concerning Russia’s observation flights under the Treaty on Open Skies until the Department of State and the Pentagon convince lawmakers that Moscow fully complies with the treaty and permits aerial surveillance of some of its territories, including Kaliningrad, Moscow, Chenchya and areas that border the former Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

White House stance The White House administration has not yet expressed its attitude towards the document. Last year, a similar text was vetoed by US President Barack Obama. At the same time, according to the Miltiary Times portal, the Democrats previously expressed their support for the draft bill. http://tass.com/defense/917920 Return to Top

RT (Russia Today) – Moscow, Russia Russia Is ‘No. 1 Threat’ to United States, Air Force Secretary Claims 5 December 2016 The Secretary of the US Air Force has once again claimed that Russia is the “No. 1 threat” faced by the US, with several defense officials expressing similar opinions. It follows promises by US President-elect Donald Trump to improve relations with Moscow. “Russia is the No. 1 threat to the United States. We have a number of threats that we’re dealing with, but Russia could be, because of the nuclear aspect, an existential threat to the United States,” Air Force Secretary Deborah James told Reuters at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum on Saturday. She went on to speak of “very worrying” incidents of “very dangerous airmanship” by Russia, as well as alleged cyber-attacks by Russian hackers on US institutions. James’ statements were echoed by chief of Naval Operations Admiral John Richardson and Pentagon chief arms buyer Frank Kendall, all of whom voiced growing concern about what they claim is Russia’s increasingly aggressive behavior. Richardson told Reuters that increased Russian naval activities are taking place across the globe. He cited Moscow’s deployment of a carrier strike group to the Mediterranean, the firing of missiles from ships in the Caspian Sea, increased submarine activities in the northern Atlantic, and a growing naval presence in the Pacific. He said there are continuing incidents involving Russian aircraft buzzing US vessels, with some coming as close as 30 feet. He also cited cases where ships were allegedly behaving “erratically.” “It’s all for public consumption,” Richardson said, claiming that Russian ships often filmed the encounters and edited them to make it appear as if US ships were at fault. Richardson went on to state that Washington and Moscow have an agreement to limit and discuss incidents at sea, but that the accord appears to be having limited impact on curbing such incidents. “More communication with Russia would be a valuable thing,” Richardson said, noting that dialogue between US and Russian naval officers has ceased since Russia’s reunification with Crimea following the 2014 referendum. Meanwhile, Kendall said that US policy, which had previously been focused on threats in the Asia- Pacific region and the Middle East, is now being focused more on Russia. “Their behavior has caused us… to rethink the balance of capabilities that we’re going to need,” he said.

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama Speaking at the conference, Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, accused Russia of aiming to counter NATO and undermine its credibility while limiting the ability of the US military to project power around the world. “They are operating with a frequency and in places that we haven’t seen for decades,” he said, noting Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, Crimea, and Syria. Army Secretary Eric Fanning also told a panel at the conference that Russia was acting in a “destabilizing way.” It is not the first time that James has named Russia as the biggest threat to the US. In August, she told Fox News that she thinks the “number one threat is Russia,” adding that it is “one of the handful of [countries] that could actually present an existential threat to the US.” “They have nuclear weapons. They have been acting [in] very aggressive manners in recent years. And they are also investing and are testing military capabilities… that is very worrisome for the United States and to our allies,” she elaborated at the time. Dunford was also treading old ground during his Saturday speech. He said extremely similar words to James in July 2015, claiming that “Russia presents the greatest threat to our national security… if you want to talk about a nation that could pose an existential threat to the United States, I’d have to point to Russia.” None of the officials gave details about how Russian concerns would affect the Pentagon’s fiscal 2018 budget request, but defense officials have noted the need to focus on areas such as cyber security, space, nuclear capabilities, and missile defense – areas where Russia has developed new capabilities in recent years. The budget request is expected to be submitted in April at the earliest, and will likely be significantly reworked once Trump takes office. Despite the officials’ cited concerns about Russia, President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to strengthen ties between the two countries, repeatedly stressing that it would be great if the two nations could get along, and citing a common desire to combat Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL). Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed a willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration during his annual address to Russian lawmakers on Friday, saying that Moscow and Washington “have a shared responsibility to ensure international safety.” For its part, Moscow has expressed its own concerns about US and NATO military activity in recent months, with Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov calling the Western alliance an “aggressive bloc” in November. He said that Russia has the right to protect itself against NATO’s eastward expansion, saying it has “all the sovereign rights to take the necessary measures across all the territory of the Russian Federation.” Peskov’s statements were echoed by Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu earlier in November, when he stated that Russia was being forced to take reciprocal defensive measures in response to the US and NATO building up their offensive capabilities on the Western borders of Russia and Belarus. He stated that in order to address security challenges, Russia was supplying state-of the art armaments and weapons systems to army units guarding the Western borders, as well as ramping up combat training for troops. In October, Russia’s Permanent Representative to NATO, Aleksandr Grushko, said that NATO’s buildup close to Russian territory could have a negative impact on the general security situation in the region.

“NATO’s [systematic] efforts have been changing the very essence of the military security in the regions which are adjacent to the Russian border,” Grushko told Rossiya-24 channel, noting that the alliance's ongoing military buildup in its eastern flank is “some sort of project that not only does not correspond to the common European security interests, but goes against them.” https://www.rt.com/usa/369195-russia-threat-us-military/ Return to Top

The Washington Free Beacon – Washington, D.C. China Flight-Tests 10 DF-21 Missiles Show of force comes amid transition to Trump By Bill Gertz December 2, 2016 China’s military conducted a salvo of 10 missile flight tests late last month in a show of force during the transition to the Donald Trump administration. Chinese state media reported Thursday that the simultaneous flight tests of 10 DF-21 intermediate- range ballistic missiles were carried out in China. The missiles “can destroy U.S. Asia-Pacific bases at any time,” the dispatch from the official Xinhua news agency reported. The flight tests were disclosed by China Central Television on Nov. 28 and coincide with President- elect Donald Trump’s high-profile announcements of new senior government officials. Disclosure of the missile salvo launch comes as Trump announced on Thursday that he will nominate retired Marine Corps. Gen. James Mattis as his defense secretary. Mattis is one of the Corps’ most celebrated warfighting generals. Xinhua reported that the DF-21 is comparable to the U.S. Pershing II intermediate-range missile that used a two-stage rocket and aerodynamic reentry vehicle. The Pershing II was dismantled under the U.S.-Russian INF treaty. Rick Fisher, a China military expert, confirmed the missile tests involved the DF-21C variant of the missile. Fisher, a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center, also noted that the missile test came as China is conducting large-scale naval exercises. “The PLA is banging some drums to provide background for military psychological warfare,” Fisher said. The DF-21 is the basis for several types of missiles, including the anti-ship variant known as the DF- 21D. Another version is believed to be part of China’s anti-satellite arsenal.

Yonhap News Agency – Seoul, South Korea Top Nuke Envoys of S. Korea, U.S. and Japan to Discuss N.K. Nuke Threat Next Week December 5, 2016 SEOUL, Dec. 5 (Yonhap) -- The top nuclear envoys of South Korea, the United States and Japan will meet in Seoul early next week to discuss how to cope with the evolving threat from North Korea, the foreign ministry here said Monday. The trilateral meeting of the representatives dealing with the North's nuclear issue will be held on Dec. 13, according to the ministry. Kim Hong-kyun, special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, will meet with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Joseph Yun and Kenji Kanasugi. "Opinions on the North and its nuclear issue will be exchanged (during the meeting)," the ministry said in a press release. They will also likely discuss ways to better cope with any possible provocations by the North in the days before Jan. 20 when Donald Trump takes office as next president of the U.S., the ministry added. This would mark the first trilateral meeting of the countries since June and also the first of its kind since the U.S. envoy's inauguration in October. The meeting comes after the United Nations Security Council adopted a new set of sanctions last week aimed at punishing the North for carrying out its fifth and latest nuclear test in September. The main focus was placed on choking off money flow into Pyongyang that could be exploited to continue its nuclear and missile programs, including restrictions on coal exports. In a follow-up move, Seoul, Washington and Tokyo unveiled their own unilateral punitive sanctions against the North. The Seoul government, in particular, blacklisted scores of North Korean individuals, including close aides to Kim Jong-un, and entities, setting up bans and restrictions on their trade with South Korean people. http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2016/12/05/0401000000AEN2016120500445131 5.html Return to Top

People’s Daily Online – Beijing, China China's Probe into S Korea's Lotte Group Unrelated to THAAD Deployment: Expert (Global Times) December 5, 2016 Chinese experts on Friday said the decision to investigate units of South Korea's Lotte Group in China was a legitimate regulatory action, and that it was not related to the company's involvement in the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system. A representative at Lotte China headquarters in Shanghai confirmed with the Global Times on Friday that several subsidiaries of the company have been investigated by Chinese authorities for tax, fire control and safety issues. The representative, who requested anonymity, said they are still gathering information from these subsidiaries and that the company attaches great importance to Chinese laws and safety regulations. But the representative refrained from commenting further on the investigation or if the company has been in contact with the South Korean government. South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported Friday that the South Korean government is considering to express regret over China's probes into Lotte because "the action may be in retaliation to" the planned deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. Lotte has signed a deal with the South Korean government to provide a golf course in Southeast South Korea for the THAAD deployment, according to Yonhap. Experts said the South Korean government and Lotte may have misread and complicated the investigations. "They are connecting dots that are not really related here," Lü Chao, a research fellow with the Liaoning Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times. He said though it is obvious that Lotte's involvement in the THAAD issue raised concerns among some Chinese, the probes are "legitimate and are common" to foreign companies operating in the Chinese market. The Chinese government's authority to oversee and investigate any foreign company operating in China in accordance with law is indisputable, said Gao Liankui, an expert from the Department of Economics with the Renmin University of China. However, the accusation that China is punishing a private firm for political disputes is "unreasonable," Lü said, noting China has "many more ways" to express its opposition to the THAAD issue, including through diplomatic and military channels. "China has genuine concerns over the deployment of THAAD system, and South Korea should rethink its decision before further damaging bilateral relations. Meanwhile, China should take appropriate counter measures," Lü said. DPRK responds to sanctions DPRK's leader Kim Jong-un on Friday observed a huge artillery drill and threatened to "make a clean sweep" of South Korea if war broke out, in an apparent response to fresh sanctions on his country. Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The military drill carried out by DPRK front-line units reportedly simulated hitting targets in South Korea, Yonhap reported. Kim Jong-un said "nobody and nothing" could survive such military strikes, which, if inflicted on South Korean forces, could "completely break their will of counteraction at the start and make a clean sweep of them." South Korea on Friday announced new unilateral sanctions against DPRK, which includes adding 35 entities and 36 individuals to a blacklist, according to a separate Yonhap report. South Korea included a Chinese firm and four executives of the company to its sanction list, the first time Chinese entities are targeted by South Korean sanctions, Yonhap said. http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1205/c90000-9150776.html Return to Top

The National Interest – Washington, D.C. China Has Built the Biggest and Baddest Conventional Submarine in the World By Sebastien Roblin December 5, 2016 In 2010, China’s first—and only, so far—Qing-class submarine sailed out to sea following nearly six years of construction. Displacing 6,628 tons submerged and measuring exactly the length of a football field at one hundred yards long (ninety-two meters), it is by most accounts the largest diesel submarine ever built. Unlike the vast majority of diesel submarines, the Type 032 can fire not only long-range cruise missiles, but submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with the capacity to send a nuclear warhead across the ocean. Beijing prefers to keep its cards close to the chest, leading to speculation about the Type 032—is it purely a missile testing submarine, as is officially claimed, or is it the precursor of a fleet of low-cost ballistic-missile subs? Or was the Type 32 actually built as a prototype vessel for export to Pakistan? In the past, nuclear submarines enjoyed an enormous advantage in submerged endurance and noise compared to traditional diesel submarines. A diesel submarine could swim quietly for days before having to resurface, but a nuclear-powered submarine can do it for months. That China would even consider developing such a large diesel submarine is due to the advent of Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) systems, which encompass a variety of technologies that allow engines and generators onboard a submarine to operate while consuming little or no oxygen. AIP systems can be even quieter than the reactors onboard nuclear submarines, and can efficiently propel the ship electrically for weeks, albeit only at slower speeds. The first operational AIP powered submarine was the Swedish Gotland, which entered service in 1996. Using a Stirling engine, it could operate submerged for thirty days at a time. The small and nearly silent diesel sub successfully penetrated the antisubmarine defenses of U.S. aircraft carrier task forces in several war games. Since then, China has built fifteen Yuan-class Type 039A (aka Type 041) diesel submarines using Stirling AIP technology, with another twenty planned. The torpedo-armed Yuan-class subs are intended, like the Swedish Gotland, to serve as stealthy short-range boats for stalking enemy vessels in coastal waters.

The Stirling-powered Qing class, however, marks a dramatic departure from that modus operandi. Situated on the vessel’s elongated sail are two or three Vertical Launch Systems (VLS) tubes used to fire JL-2A Ju Lang (“Big Wave”) ballistic missiles. The JL-2A is believed to have a range approaching five thousand miles and can carry a single one-megaton nuclear warhead, or three or four ninety- kiloton independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs). The JL-2 was first tested in 2001 and constitutes the main armament of China’s Type 094 Jin-class nuclear submarines. A Type 094 sub embarked on China’s first nuclear deterrence patrol in 2015. Hypothetically, the Type 032 would offer a cheaper, shorter-endurance compliment to the Type- 094. Four or five additional VLS cells on the Qing class’s bow can fire JL-18B Yingji (Eagle Strike) antishipping cruise missiles, which surge to speeds of Mach 2.5 on their terminal approach. The JL- 18B is supposedly satellite guided, and is variously credited with a range of 110 to more than three hundred miles. The Type 032 can also launch the slower but longer-range CJ-20A cruise missiles, a derivative of the CJ-10. Rounding out the Qing class’s armaments is an unconventional pairing of a single standard 533- millimeter torpedo tube with an extra-large 650-millimeter tube. The Type 032 also has facilities to accommodate and deploy up to fifty special-forces personnel—an increasingly common feature in modern submarines. In other respects, the Type 032 is less impressive. It’s slow—with a maximum speed of sixteen miles per hour submerged, nearly half the speed of a Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine. Its maximum dive depth is reported to be 160 to 200 meters—again, less than half the depth that many modern designs can submerge. The Qing class is understandably not designed for a knife-fight. In any case, the fact that only a single Type 032 has been built reinforces the claims that it is intended as an affordable testing platform for missile armament. It indeed appears to have replaced the sixties-era Type 031 Golf-class sub used to test the JL-2 ballistic missile. In addition to its crew complement of eighty-eight, it claimed that the Type 032 can carry an additional one hundred “scientists and technicians.” The sub has also reportedly been used to test submarine-launched surface-to-air Missiles and a new underwater escape pods. Some suggest the Type 032 may be applied to deploying undersea drones. However, a 2011 report claimed that China would sell six Type 032 submarines to Pakistan. The two countries hold a long-time alliance opposing India. China remains wary of the potential future superpower, and sees reinforcing its archrival Pakistan as a strategic hedge. However, the initial claim to a Type 032 deal was either inaccurate or fell through. More recently, Beijing confirmed in October that it would sell eight Project S-26 and Project S-30 submarines for $4–5 billion—a price roughly equivalent to the cost of two nuclear submarines. Four of each subtype will be constructed in China and Karachi, Pakistan, with first delivery no sooner than 2020 and completion of the contract by 2028. However, it’s unclear what type of submarines these will turn out to be. Several of official reports appear to state that these are derivatives of the Type 032, but most experts believe they are instead down-scaled version of the ship-hunting Yuan-class submarine. However, some descriptions of the S-30 imply it is based on the Type 032, with an intended armament of four Pakistani-developed Babur nuclear-capable land-attack cruise missiles as well as retaining two SLBM tubes.

The Korea Herald – Seoul, South Korea NK, Cuba Vow to Expand Friendly Ties December 6, 2016 North Korea and Cuba reaffirmed their friendly ties as a senior North Korean official visited Havana to attend Fidel Castro's memorial service, Pyongyang's media said Tuesday. Choe Ryong-hae, a vice chairman of the ruling party's central committee, met with Cuba's leader Raul Castro on Saturday during his visit to Havana, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). North Korea sent Choe to Havana on Nov. 28 to pay tribute to the late leader in a move seen as highlighting its close ties with the Caribbean nation. The country called Castro a "close friend and comrade" of North Koreans. The KCNA said that the two countries reaffirmed their close relationship, vowing to jointly fight against imperialism. "Cuba would more firmly strengthen the ties with the DPRK than ever before to steadily develop the friendly ties provided by the preceding leaders of the two countries," Raul Castro was quoted as saying by the KCNA. The DPRK is the acronym for the North's official name -- the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un visited the Cuban Embassy in Pyongyang last week to mourn Castro. Pyongyang honored Castro by observing a three-day mourning period from Nov. 28-30 as the former Cuban leader died at age 90 on Nov. 25. It hoisted flags at half-staff at major organizations and designated places.

North Korea and Cuba have long maintained close ties since they established their diplomatic relationship in 1960. (Yonhap) http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20161206000205 Return to Top

The Korea Times – Seoul, South Korea US Nuclear Negotiator Calls for Continued Pressure on N. Korea December 6, 2016 The United States and its partners should intensify sanctions and pressure on North Korea to force the communist regime to come back to the denuclearization negotiating table, the U.S. pointman on Pyongyang said Monday. Joseph Yoon, special representative for North Korea policy, made the case during a security forum, stressing that denulearization is the No. 1 goal of the U.S., but the North has shown no willingness to resume negotiations on its nuclear program. "Of course, I'm very mindful that sanctions and defensive measures are not an end in themselves. They are tools to bring the North Koreans back to the negotiating table on denuclearization. Our goal, let me emphasize, is denuclearization. And we have made repeated overtures to North Korea," Yoon said. "I think you would all have to agree that so far response from Pyongyang has not shown any signs it is ready to undertake serious negotiations and that is why we believe we must continue on the pressure track," he said during the discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Yoon said it takes pressure, diplomacy and defensive measures to cope with the North Korea problem. Asked if it's time for the U.S. to consider regime change in North Korea, Yoon repeated that denuclearization remains the top goal. "This was by far the most common and important objective of everyone we talked to there, Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo, and I think this is clearly the goal we all share. Denucleariation is the No. 1 priority," he said of a recent trip to South Korea, Japan and China. Earlier in the same event, former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage called openly for regime change in North Korea, saying he no longer believes it's possible change Pyongyang's behavior without a regime change. Yoon, who assumed the post in October after serving as ambassador to Malaysia, said that he believes the six-party talks are the best mechanism to resolve the nuclear standoff even though bilateral and other forms of talks could happen within the framework. "I think ultimately six-party talks present a very good established body, institution you might call it, that can do these things. These are obviously the countries most interested and most at stake, including Russia and Japan. So I would imagine that any discussion, any serious negotiation would have to involve six parties," Yoon said.

Global Times – Beijing, China PLA Jets Circled Taiwan: Official Source: Global Times December 6, 2016 Taiwan defense officials confirmed on Monday that several fighter jets of the People's Liberation Army flew over the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait last month during a drill in the Western Pacific Ocean, the first time PLA fighter jets have done so. The PLA dispatched H-6 bombers, electronic reconnaissance jets and Su-30 fighter bombers to join a drill in the Western Pacific on November 25, according to earlier media reports. The Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee of Taiwan's "legislature" asked the island's defense and security agencies to report the incident on Monday. A defense official said he was not surprised since the PLA has the capability to carry out the mission, and that there is no need to adjust Taiwan's response strategies. Media reports said the PLA flew near Taiwan's flight information region (FIR) three times in September, October and November. Taiwan's defense authorities, however, counted more than three times, though the jets didn't enter its air defense identification zone. The official noted such flying missions began in 2013 and the drills were carried out 1,000 kilometers from what China refers to as the first island chain, therefore the PLA had other targets in mind than Taiwan. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1022221.shtml Return to Top Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

Business Insider.com – Berlin, Germany North Korean Experts Explain What Kim Jong Un Wants By Amanda Macias December 6, 2016 WASHINGTON, DC — In the next four years, North Korea may join China and Russia as the only countries with the ability to reach the US's West Coast with nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. "Over the past year, North Korea has crossed technical thresholds that were previously thought to be beyond their reach for years," Victor Cha, senior adviser and Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said during a panel discussion. "The normally aggressive regime has taken an unusually violent path, even by their own extraordinary standards," Cha added. In the 14 years prior to Kim Jong Un's regime, Pyongyang was responsible for 16 missile tests and one nuclear test. By comparison, in 2016 alone, the Hermit Kingdom conducted 25 ballistic-missile tests and two nuclear tests. The acceleration and frequency in testing shows not only the North's nuclear ambitions but also that the rogue nation has developed something of an arsenal. Which leaves the obvious question, what does North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ultimately want? "What does Kim Jong-un want?" Cha said repeating the question. "I think he wants to ... he wants a peace treaty with the United States as a nuclear weapons state. I think that's what he wants." "I would add to that, that the North Koreans clearly would like to loosen, if not fracture, US alliances with Seoul and Tokyo, beginning with Seoul, certainly," said Ambassador Robert Gallucci, the lead negotiator with North Korea in the 1990s in the Agreed Framework process. "And they will do a lot to achieve that, and including, perhaps, enter negotiations," Gallucci noted. "Similar to what Bob said, [Kim Jong Un] also wants China to continue to treat North Korea as a special relationship, not a normal state-to-state relationship," said Chris Johnson, senior adviser and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "And I would add to it also that he wants to be able to maintain total control, a type of government that he has with him as the pure dictator," said retired US Army General Walter "Skip" Sharp, a former commander of US Forces-Korea. The panel of scholar-practitioners agreed that the new administration would have to deal with North Korea "almost immediately upon taking office." "More often than not, we measure the mettle of presidencies by the unexpected crises that they must deal with. For President Bush, this was clearly the terrorist attacks of 9/11, it completely changed almost every element of his presidency. For President-elect Trump, this crisis could very well come from North Korea," Cha said. http://www.businessinsider.com/what-kim-jong-un-wants-2016-12?r=UK&IR=T Return to Top

People’s Daily Online – Beijing, China 'Long-Time Friend' of Xi's Appointed US Ambassador to China By Sun Wenyu (People's Daily Online) December 8, 2016 According to a Bloomberg report, Donald Trump, the President-elect of the U.S. has named Iowa Governor Terry Branstad as his pick for the country's next ambassador to China. Branstad has nurtured a 30-year friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Then governor of Iowa, Branstad met Xi for the first time in 1985, when the latter visited the Iowa city of Muscatine as Party secretary of Zhengding County, Hebei province for a two-week exchange on agriculture and animal husbandry. The two met again in China when Branstad visited the country in 2011. During that visit, they had a conversation that lasted nearly an hour. Five months later, Xi paid another visit to Iowa. After President Xi took the office, he met with his old American friend twice, in 2013 and 2015, sharing his memories of the past. Branstad is proud of his friendship with the Chinese president. The governor loves to tell the story of his relationship with Xi, a fact known by anyone who stays in his company for more than five minutes. Iowa also shares a close bond with China, and the residents of the state are proud of their Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

contributions to bilateral relations between the two countries. Branstad, who has served as Iowa's governor for more than 20 years, deserves much of the credit for this rapport. In Trump's eyes, although Branstad has no formal experience in diplomatic relations, no one could compete with him in terms of trade. However, Branstad is not likely to keep quiet if Trump continues to take a hard line with China, like he did several days ago. http://en.people.cn/n3/2016/1208/c90000-9152479.html Return to Top

The Japan Times – Tokyo, Japan North Korea Can Launch Nuclear Weapon but Target Accuracy May Be Lacking: U.S. Brass Associated Press (AP) December 9, 2016 WASHINGTON – North Korea now has the capability to launch a nuclear weapon, a senior U.S. military official said Thursday, adding that while the U.S. believes Pyongyang can mount a warhead on a missile, it’s not clear that it can hit a target. The official said it appears that North Korea can mount a nuclear warhead on a missile, but may not have the re-entry capabilities for a strategic strike. That would include the ability of the weapon to get back through the atmosphere without burning up and the ability to hit the intended target. The official said North Korea continues to try and overcome those limitations. The Pentagon continues to revise its contingency plans regarding a North Korean strike, said the official, who was not authorized to discuss the issue publicly so spoke on condition of anonymity. The military routinely develops plans for all threat possibilities. U.S. officials have steadily expanded their assessments of Pyongyang’s nuclear abilities. Adm. William Gortney, then-head of U.S. Northern Command, said in March that Pyongyang may have figured out how to make a nuclear warhead small enough to fit on a long-range missile. Under Kim Jong Un, who rose to power following his father’s death in 2011, North Korea has seen steady progress in its nuclear and missile programs, including two nuclear tests this year. The country recently claimed a series of technical breakthroughs in its goal of developing a long- range nuclear missile capable of reaching the continental United States. North Korea is now “fully equipped with nuclear attack capability,” leader Kim announced proudly after the August launch of a submarine-launched missile. He was exaggerating, but the strings of tests indicate that North Korea may have medium-range missiles capable of striking American military bases in the Pacific in the next couple years, experts say. Some believe Pyongyang may be able to hit the Western United States as early as 2020. South Korean defense officials say North Korea doesn’t yet have such a weapon, but some civilian experts have said they believe the North has the technology to mount warheads on shorter-range Rodong and Scud missiles that can strike South Korea and Japan. “I think that they’re struggling with getting the (intercontinental ballistic missile) program up and operational,” U.S. Gen. Vincent Brooks, the head of U.S. forces in Korea, said in Senate hearings

The Australian – Sydney, Australia IS ‘Plotting Drone Chemical Strike’ By DIPESH GADHER, The Times (London) December 4, 2016 Businesses have been warned that Isis fighters returning to Britain from Syria and Iraq will seek to carry out a mass-casualty chemical or radiological “dirty bomb” attack, possibly using a drone. Law enforcement agencies believe hardened Isis recruits are planning to import terrorist tactics perfected on the battlefields of the Middle East, including the deployment of chlorine and mustard gas, to the UK. The discovery last month of a secret Isis “drone factory” in Mosul, northern Iraq, has added to concerns that such devices will be weaponised and used in future atrocities in Europe.The alert comes as it emerged that as many as 200 jihadists who have returned to Britain may be harbouring terrorist intentions. The threat of a possible chemical or dirty bomb attack has been highlighted to UK firms by Pool Re, the government-backed terrorism insurance company. In its latest quarterly threat assessment, it states: “Daesh [an alternative name for Isis] has developed a significant chemical weapons capability in Syria and Iraq. “Reports also indicate that the group has been conducting research into radiological dispersion devices (RDDs or ‘dirty bombs’) in Mosul, Iraq. As more fighters return home, there is a growing risk of a technology transfer from current attack methods in the Middle East to future attack methods in the UK.” The Pool Re assessment was compiled by a team headed by Brigadier Ed Butler, a former head of the SAS who previously led British forces in Helmand, Afghanistan. The company, set up with Treasury support in 1993 following the IRA bombing of the City’s Baltic Exchange the previous year, is also working on a report assessing the risk and insurance costs of a drone-based terrorist attack on the UK. A chemical or radiological strike on the West is an “aspiration” for Isis, and the Pool Re report states the group is “investing significant resources into enhancing this capability”. It adds: “The psychological impact of these weapons systems have the potential to cause widespread panic and significant economic impact.” Experts say the components needed for a chemical attack or dirty bomb have a dual commercial use and are therefore widely available. They also fear such materials could be smuggled into smaller ports on the UK coast where security is less stringent. Last month the US State Department said there was “credible information” to indicate that Isis and al-Qaeda were planning attacks in Europe around Christmas.

It told American citizens: “Terrorists may employ a wide variety of tactics, using both conventional and non- conventional weapons.” The latter phrase normally refers to chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear agents. On Friday, Europol, the EU-wide police agency, warned that Isis would step up overseas attacks as it came under pressure in its self- declared “caliphate”. While a Paris-style marauding firearms attack involving many terrorists and venues remains the most likely prospect, Europol raised the potential for a chemical strike. “It is also possible that Isis will consider the use of chemical and/or biological weapons in the EU at some stage,” the agency said. “Isis is known to have used sulphur mustard gas in Syria and is thought to be able to produce the gas itself.” The terrorist group has also used mustard agents - as well as chlorine - against Kurdish peshmerga forces fighting in Iraq. In October, an Isis drone fitted with explosives killed two peshmerga fighters, raising serious concern among western intelligence agencies that jihadists returning to Europe will seek to replicate such attacks with off-the-shelf drones carrying improvised bombs or chemicals. Some 400-450 jihadists have returned to Britain from Syria and Iraq. Last week a leaked German government report revealed that almost half - 48 per cent - of fighters who had come back to Germany remained committed to extremist ideology. Only 10 per cent claimed they were disillusioned with Isis. The Times (London) http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/is-plotting-drone-chemical- strike/news-story/8f600050edabd10a4f80ac538ececb83 Return to Top

CNN News – Atlanta, GA Obama to Sign Iran Sanctions Bill By Allie Malloy and Ted Barrett, CNN Friday, December 2, 2016 Washington (CNN) President Barack Obama will sign an extension of the Iran sanctions bill passed in Congress this week, White House spokesman Eric Schultz said Friday, although he called it "not necessary." The White House has held the position that the administration has already provided enough sanctions on Iran, but said as the new measures will not interfere with the nuclear deal, Obama will sign it. "We haven't been shy about taking action in response to those actions that includes strong robust sanctions, and that's not going to change," Schultz said. Senators overwhelmingly approved Thursday a 10-year extension of tough economic sanctions against Iran they believe is needed to ensure Iran doesn't violate the terms of the recent international accord to curb that country's nuclear program.

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran Iran’s Velayati: US Extension of Sanctions Clear Breach of JCPOA December 03, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – Head of the Strategic Research Center of Iran’s Expediency Council Ali Akbar Velayati denounced a recent move by the US Congress to extend anti-Tehran sanctions for 10 years as a clear violation of the JCPOA, a nuclear deal between the Islamic Republic and world powers. Speaking to the Tasnim News Agency, Velayati pointed to a legislation recently passed by the US congress to extend the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA), and said the measure is a breach of the nuclear deal reached between Tehran and world powers in July 2015. If the US president signs the legislation into law and finalize it, the measure would be a clear violation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), he said. That is because in the negotiations between Tehran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany), the Americans had pledged not to take any measure contrary to the spirit of the JCPOA, added Velayati, who is also a senior adviser to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei. The measure passed the US Senate by 99-0 on Thursday. It passed the House of Representatives nearly unanimously in November, and congressional aides said they expected President Barack Obama would sign it. Meanwhile, a senior lawmaker on Friday said Iran’s parliament is weighing a series of measures in response to the US Congress. Bahrouz Nemati, spokesman for parliament’s presiding board, said some 220 lawmakers have prepared a resolution which condemns US extension of the sanctions. A two-starred motion on prohibiting US-made products is also moving through the chamber for approval, Nemati added. The parliament is expected to take other counter-measures against the ISA extension which he did not specify. While the JCPOA, the nuclear agreement between Iran and the Group 5+1 (Russia, China, the US, Britain, France and Germany) came into force in January, some Iranian officials complain about the US failure to fully implement the accord. Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said last month that if the sanctions were extended, Iran would definitely respond to it.

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 4 December 2016 President: Iran's Response to JCPOA Violation Would Be Decisive Tehran, Dec 4, IRNA – Any violation of the nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, is going to meet with our decisive response, says Iran's President Hassan Rouhani. The US Senate on Thursday renewed the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) for another ten-year period. 'As the President of the Islamic Republic and head of the Supreme National Security Council, I declare here that Iran is not going to stand any violation of the JCPOA by any member states of the P5+1 group of countries,' President Rouhani said on Sunday in Iran's parliament before tabling the new budget deal. 'Any violation is going to meet our appropriate response,' he said. President Rouhani said that extension of the ISA in the US Senate is against the nuclear deal and is going to violate it. 'We consider signing of the Iran Sanctions Act by the US president as to be against Washington's commitments,' he said. 'The president of the United States is obliged not to sign the measure and use all in his prowess to stop the act,' he said. President Rouhani also said that the JCPOA is a valid international document that has been ratified by the United Nations Security Council. 'Full and precise implementation of the nuclear deal tends to benefit all the parties involved as well as the global community.' http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82331764/ Return to Top

FARS News Agency – Tehran, Iran Sunday, December 04, 2016 Iranian Lawmakers Condemn US Violation of N. Deal, Urge Gov't to Reciprocate TEHRAN (FNA) - Iranian legislators in a statement on Sunday deplored the US Senate for approving extension of the Iran Sanctions Act (ISA), and cautioned the government to take rapid action to reciprocate the US violation of the nuclear deal. "We, the Iranian MPs, condemn the US House and Senate measure and believe it signifies the height of irresponsible behavior of the (US ruling) system in complying with its international undertakings," the statement said.

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama The Iranian parliamentarians referred to the law approved earlier by Iran's Islamic Consultative Assembly (Majlis) on necessary actions against the world powers' violation of the nuclear deal, and called on the government to act accordingly and adopt reciprocal moves immediately and inform the parliament of the results. "It is required that rapid action is taken to implement the stated law on the conditions and terms of reciprocal action against the violations of the other side," the statement stressed. The statement was issued in reaction to the extension of the Iran Sanctions Act by the US Senate on Thursday that clearly violates the last year nuclear deal. Iranian officials have warned that Tehran has prepared itself for showing a tough reaction. On Saturday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani requested the world powers, party to the nuclear deal with Tehran, to take action to stop Washington from damaging the Vienna agreement, warning that the US is treating the multilateral deal based on its own antagonistic aspirations. "The nuclear deal is the product of seven countries' cooperation and in line with global peace and security. Every one should try to safeguard its achievements and we shouldn’t allow any country to take action to weaken the agreement as it desires," President Rouhani said in a meeting with Russia's special envoy on Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev, in Tehran. "Iran has always been and will be committed to its international undertakings and other members of the Group 5+1 (the US, Russia, China, France and Britain plus Germany) should fully act upon their undertakings too for the nuclear deal to remain," he added. Lavrentiev, for his part, referred to the developments related to the nuclear deal, and said, "Russia's position on the nuclear deal is stable and strong and undermining the agreement is no way justified." Upon his arrival in New Delhi International Airport on Saturday, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif also said that "the US officials have still a responsibility to prevent execution of such bills as they blatantly violate the nuclear agreement". The Iranian foreign minister underlined that signing the US Congress bill for extension of Iran's sanctions will discredit the US government at the international scene. Zarif, however, reiterated that the US unilateral sanctions have no impact on the third countries' relations with Iran. Also, Secretary of Iran's Expediency Council (EC) Mohsen Rezayee warned the US to fulfill its undertakings under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) or wait for the resumption of full-scale nuclear activities by Tehran. "Should the US adopt new sanctions against Iran, Tehran's response will be shocking," Rezayee wrote in his Instagram page on Friday. The Expediency Council's secretary said that the sanctions will not be targeted against Iran only; rather they will mock the European Union, China and Russia as well. "We will have the free hand to take action against the US; however, our action will be many times more fundamental and more crushing," Rezayee added. http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950914000877 Return to Top

Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) – Tehran, Iran 5 December 2016 Salehi: Iran Will Give Strong Reaction to US Breach of JCPOA Tehran, Dec 5, IRNA – Vice-President and Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali-Akbar Salehi said on Monday that Iran will give strong reaction to the United States breach of JCPOA. Salehi made the remarks in a statement to the inaugural session of the International Conference on Nuclear Security. 'Unfortunately, we see certain illogical behavior and measures from the United States. Iran will react strongly if a party to JCPOA take practical step to breach the nuclear deal.' He said durability of the JCPOA depends on fulfillment of commitments and action of the other parties. He noted that Iran has thus far fully implemented the commitments to the JCPOA and will not be the initiator of any breach. 'The Islamic Republic of Iran is among staunch supporters of the idea of the world free from nuclear weapons.' He said that within the same framework, Iran calls for the Middle East free of nuclear weapons. He then emphasized universality of Non-Proliferation Treaty and the need to make efforts for elimination of weapons of mass destruction. Salehi rebuked the Israeli regime for 'unjustifiable' refusal to sign up for NPT, saying that nuclear program of Tel Aviv regime is a serious concern and a threat to regional and international security. He refuted the cyber attack on the nuclear facilities, including using the Stuxnet virus against Iran, calling on IAEA member states to condemn such attacks. He urged adoption of measures and comprehensive plans to counter such attacks. The AEOI director pointed to dangers of the access of the terrorist groups to nuclear and radioactive substances, saying that it is a major concern and a threat to international security. He then underlined the role of communicative technology and cyber space in facilitation of such access and emphasized protecting the sensitive information connected to nuclear security. Salehi said measures to be taken for nuclear security should not undermine or overshadow international cooperation for peaceful use of nuclear energy. Salehi highlighted Iran's activities for nuclear security build-up, saying that Iran is keen on international cooperation in that area. http://www.irna.ir/en/News/82333967/ Return to Top

Tasnim News Agency – Tehran, Iran White House Claims ISA Renewal Not ‘Inconsistent’ with JCPOA December 06, 2016 TEHRAN (Tasnim) – White House Spokesman Josh Earnest claimed that the US extension of Iran Sanctions Act (ISA) for another 10 years was not “inconsistent” with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the July 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers. “Well, we've made clear since Congress was considering the passage of this legislation that this legislation was not inconsistent with the agreement that was reached in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action…,” Ernest said during a press briefing on Monday. He added, “And in fact, we made clear that if Congress did pass legislation that undermined the deal that was inconsistent with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action that the President would veto it.” Ernest further claimed that the legislation does not violate the deal, and that Obama does intend to sign it into law.

The US Senate last week voted 99-0 to extend the ISA for another decade. The bill was passed by the House of Representatives nearly unanimously in November, and congressional aides said they expected President Barack Obama would sign it. On Sunday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said implementation of the bill will draw a decisive response from Tehran, noting that even Obama’s endorsement of the bill will provoke Iran’s commensurate reaction. https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/12/06/1259478/white-house-claims-isa-renewal- not-inconsistent-with-jcpoa Return to Top

China Military – Beijing, China OPINION Why Does Russia Revive the 'Nuclear Train' Program? Source: China Military December 5, 2016 BEIJING, Dec. 5 (ChinaMil) -- Research and development of the missile-carrying train for Russia's future Barguzin "combat railway missile complex" (BZhRK), also referred as the "nuclear train" for its transportation and launch of strategic nuclear missiles, is in smooth progress, according to Russian media reports. The Barguzin complex's intercontinental ballistic missile had a successful Pop-up launch test recently, and further flight design testing may begin in 2017. Sergei Karakayev, commander of Russian Strategic Missile Forces, said the nuclear train is expected to be deployed in the strategic missile troops in 2020 and assume combat duties. The BZhRks was called the "ghost trains" during the Cold War. The US and former Soviet Union invested a lot of scientific research resources and capital in its development and manufacturing, and the US didn't abandon this program until the Soviet Union was disintegrated and the Cold War ended. The Soviet strategic missile troops were equipped with 12 BZhRKs with 36 intercontinental ballistic missiles in total from 1987. After the Cold War, Russia and the US signed the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), according to which 10 BZhRKs were destroyed, and the remaining two were placed in an exhibition hall after being "demilitarized". Why does Russia revive the BZhRK program, which once posed a serious threat to the US, so many years after the Cold War? Because it wants to maintain strategic deterrence against the US. First of all, Russia is developing new strategic missiles to preserve its national security and maintain the position as a nuclear power. Russian President Putin once said that nuclear weapons will remain a key factor that prevents nuclear and conventional military conflicts, and Russia's main task is to "maintain sufficient potential of nuclear restraint". Therefore, Russia has been trying hard to keep up the nuclear

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama arsenal it inherits from the Soviet Union despite its economic fluctuations, and strives to keep a general equilibrium with the US in strategic nuclear forces. Thanks to the government's strong support, Russia has developed a range of advanced intercontinental ballistic missiles including Topol-M, Yars and Rubezh, and the Sarmat intercontinental missile with the firing range of 17,000km is under way. According to Karakayev, reviving the Barguzin BZhRK was a decision made by President Putin. Second, reviving the Barguzin program will help Russia ensure the flexible deployment and launch of its land-based strategic missiles. Karakayev said after the new-generation missile train is commissioned, Russia's land-based strategic missile troops will resume the three launching approaches that were adopted by the former Soviet Union, namely silo launch, mobile launch on the road and train-based launch, which will largely expand the troops' maneuvering scope and enhance its surprise attack. Russian media reported that the new-generation missile-carrying train can run 1,000km on regular rail in 24 hours and can launch the missile within minutes either on the move or in halt. Third, the missile-carrying train has much better stealth performance than silo launch and road-mobile launch. Given Russia's vast territory and sprawling railway network, the missile-carrying train will merge into the network as soon as it gets on the way. A Russian expert on military and security issues pointed out that thanks to modern technology, the carriage of the newly developed missile train isn't much different from the carriage of regular passenger and cargo trains, and common people won't know it carries powerful weapons even if it passes them. Russian media reported that during the Cold War, the US used several satellites to look for the serving Soviet missile trains, but didn't find them. The American admitted it was like "searching for a needle in a haystack". The missile train program is also a countermove in response to America's global missile defense system and C-PGS (prompt global strike) program. The new strategic missile Russia is developing focuses on the capability of penetrating America's missile defense system. Russia didn't reveal much information about the new-generation missile train yet, but it was reported earlier on that it will be equipped with the modified Yars intercontinental missile. Each missile train can carry six Yars missiles and each missile has four independently reentry nuclear vehicles with the firing range of 10,000km and precision radius of 100m. According to Russian military experts, missile train is the strategic missile combat system that is most likely to dodge nuclear or conventional strikes launched by other countries because it can vanish into the forests along the railway or hide in mountain tunnels, which will make countries that plan to attack Russia by surprise think twice. Karakayev said when re-launching the BZhRK, Russia will consider applying all the latest research results in combat missile. Barguzin will surpass its predecessors in precision and firing range, and will serve in Russia's Strategic Missile Forces for a long time. The Russian military plans to form five Barguzin strategic missile regiments, each including one missile train and six missiles. The Russian media held that once the Barguzin is put into service, it will become another "ace in the hole" that can significantly enhance the overall strength of the Russian strategic missile troops and effectively counter America's military superiority.

Disclaimer: The information, ideas or opinions appearing in this article are those of the author named Xie Rong from the Xinhua News Agency and do not reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn. Chinamil.com.cn does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same. http://english.chinamil.com.cn/view/2016-12/05/content_7392916.htm Return to Top

China Military – Beijing, China OPINION Rear Admiral: China's Development of H-20 Bomber Just in Time Source: Xinhua December 7, 2016 BEIJING, Dec. 7 (ChinaMil) -- The Science and Technology Daily of China published an article titled Conjecture on China’s Strategic Bomber Performance on December 4, saying that China’s Air Force Commander Ma Xiaotian revealed that China is developing next-generation long-range bombers at an open day activity on September 1, confirming the “legendary” “H-20” bomber. Recently, a China Central Television (CCTV) program also showed a suspected CG graph of China’s H-20 bomber, which further made a big splash among military fans. When asked when China's next-generation strategic bombers will make the debut, Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, director of the PLA Navy's Expert Consultation Committee, said that we should have some patience. China has never developed such a large-tonnage and long-range strategic bomber before. The H-6 bomber in service is medium-sized but not a strategic bomber. Having the strategic bomber will become one of the symbols of China’s air force as a strategic service, said Yin Zhuo. Yin Zhuo also held that the strategic bombers that China is developing will be surely on a par with B-2 of the US and have the stealth performance. Yin introduced that the next-generation strategic bombers need a longer development cycle, usually more than ten years. China boasts some favorable conditions for developing strategic bombers: China has accumulated some experience from the development of J-20 and F -31 stealth fighters, so the material and design is not a big problem. China has developed Y-20, C-919 and other large aircraft, so the relevant technical reserves are useful for developing strategic bombers. Cruise missiles, nuclear weapons and other weapons and equipment that will be carried by domestic strategic bombers are all in place, so it is just in time for China to develop strategic bombers, said Yin Zhuo. Leveraging the rich technical reserves, the development cycle may be shorter. Speaking of whether China can develop supersonic stealth strategic bombers, military expert Li Li said that this is technically demanding indeed. Because if the emphasis is laid on the stealth performance, the aircraft's aerodynamic configuration will be quite different from that of a supersonic bomber. It may be a more realistic solution to select from the stealth capability and supersonic penetration.

Global Times – Beijing, China OPINION/Editorial Reciprocity Key to Dealing with Trump’s US Source: Global Times December 8, 2016 After meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday, Japan's SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son announced a $50 billion investment in the US, aiming to create 50,000 jobs. Trump then tweeted that Son "would never do this" if Trump hadn't won the election. Immediately some Japanese netizens said this is the result of Trump extorting Japan. Not long before, South Korea said it would have to accept taking a greater share of costs for hosting US forces if Trump demands it. Foxconn, belonging to Taiwan tycoon Terry Gou, will join SoftBank in investing $7 billion in the US, creating another 50,000 jobs. The president-elect has already prompted the US' Asian allies to actively express their willingness to pay "protection money" before he is sworn in. The investment of SoftBank and Foxconn is widely considered to be a creative way of Japanese and Taiwan authorities to play up to Washington. But some think the investment deal is a show by SoftBank in alliance with Trump. The company has already invested in the US on venture capital, robotics and online finance, which will only decrease US jobs, not the other way around. Trump tries to translate his image of not playing by the rules into a worldwide presumption that he may play tough, in an attempt to blow away his targeted countries and regions. His tactics seem to have worked out on Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Trump obviously considers China a cash cow. There have been voices in the West that want China to do more since the US deemed that China took a free ride on US efforts to maintain world order. However, it was reported Wednesday that Trump is to appoint Iowa Governor Terry Branstad, an old friend of China, as the next US ambassador to Beijing, which suggests there may be another dimension to Trump's desire to maintain communications and friendliness with China. This has made his China policy in the making more complicated. China has made more efforts to contribute more to world peace and increasing expenditure in this regard as it is necessary with China's continuous development. But does China need to make deals with Trump that only benefit the US for making peace with him? Apparently not. The negotiations between China and the US must be carried out on an equal footing with mutual benefits, and won't come to any agreement under Trump's coercion. What if someone tries to leverage China in negotiations in an unacceptable way and tries to create an arrogant atmosphere? In this case, the best China can do is to return an eye for an eye. Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies (CUWS) Outreach Journal

China won't pay into Trump's protection racket. It should use the money to build more strategic nuclear arms and accelerate the deployment of the DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile. China's military spending in 2017 should be augmented significantly. We need to get better prepared militarily regarding the Taiwan question to ensure that those who advocate Taiwan's independence will be punished, and take precautions in case of US provocations in the South China Sea. If Branstad is appointed US ambassador, China should give a positive response. China needs to always prepare for the worst and stay open to the good. http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1022482.shtml Return to Top

China Military – Beijing, China OPINION What's Japan's Strategic Intention for Deploying THAAD? Source: China Military December 9, 2016 BEIJING, Dec. 7 (ChinaMil) -- Japanese media reported that the Japanese Ministry of Defense plans to form a committee headed by deputy defense minister Kenji Wakamiya to discuss the introduction of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile battery and other new equipment from the US military. The committee aims to finalize a missile defense blueprint before the summer of 2017. A source from the Japanese government also said that defense minister Tomomi Inada is scheduled to inspect the US military's cutting-edge land-based missile interception system THAAD in Guam in mid-December. Given the worsening security situation in Northeast Asia, Japan claimed the deployment of THAAD is to deal with nuclear threats from the DPRK, but it already deployed the SM-3 and Patriot missile interception systems on its homeland, which is more than enough to fend off "nuclear missile threats from the DPRK". Why does it deploy the THAAD? It is just an excuse to cover up Tokyo's military ambition. Declaring to introduce THAAD regardless of the consequence of worsening the regional security situation, Japan definitely has an axe to grind. The cat's-paw to consolidate Japan-US alliance After the election campaign started in the US, Japan pinned its hopes on the Democratic candidate Clinton Hillary, only to see the Republic candidate Trump become president-elect. Trump put forth his agenda during the election campaign, and the first thing he did after taking office was to stop the TPP, which is a multilateral agreement initiated by the Obama administration and Japan to politically suppress and isolate China. We can imagine how embarrassed and anxious Tokyo was after Trump was elected.

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538 USAF Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies CUWS Outreach Journal Maxwell AFB, Alabama More importantly, Trump declared that he will carry out strategic contraction worldwide during his term, especially in the Asia Pacific and Japan, and invest more energy and resources in domestic development. He criticized Japan during the campaign, and made it clear that he will cut military input in the Asia Pacific and demand Japan to bear more military cost for the American troops stationed there. For Japan, maintaining a sound alliance with the US is the foundation for it to contain China's rise, seize the dominance in East Asia and raise its international standing and military strength. Without America's firm support, Japan will soon find itself in a strategically passive state across the board. Therefore, Japan taking the initiative to deploy the THAAD system, which announced its willingness to continue to be the cat's-paw of America's Asia Pacific strategy, is not only to show Trump its "resolve" to follow Washington, but also to bear America's military expenses in the Asia Pacific by purchasing and deploying its weapons and equipment, so as to make overtures to the new administration. Military buildup targets China At present, Japan has an anti-missile network comprising the Aegis system and Patriot system. As THAAD is able to intercept incoming missiles on the altitude from 20km to 150km, Japan hopes it can connect the Aegis and Patriot systems and form a three-layer anti-missile network. This means that Japan's claim that deploying THAAD is mainly to fend off "nuclear missile threats from the DPRK" is just an excuse. Its real purpose is to establish an all-altitude and multi-layer anti- missile system to intercept China's missiles and undermine its strategic strike capability. On the other hand, THAAD's X-band radar has a detecting range of 2,000km, with which Japan will be able to monitor China's military movements and missile activities on its southeast coast. The ROK already decided to deploy THAAD, which will keep an eye on military activities in China's northeast and northern areas, and ROK and Japan just signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA). Once these two countries connect their THAAD systems and share information, most of China's key strategic areas will be monitored by them as well as the US, which will overthrow the strategic balance in Northeast Asia. Worsening security situation to pave the way for "constitutional amendment" As DPRK's nuclear issue is escalating and security instability in Northeast Asia is worsening, Japan insists on introducing the THAAD system despite objections from China and Russia because it has to pave the way for "constitutional amendment". First of all, Japan is an economic power with limited political influence, and it is always under the restriction and influence of the US. To amend the peace constitution, Abe must have America's support or connivance because only the US can help it clear the way for the amendment. Second, to break through the policy on "defense only" and lift the ban on the right to collective self- defense, Japan needs a solid public foundation. Therefore, it planned to deploy THAAD to cause China's strong objection and consequently flame up the China-Japan conflicts and Japanese people's sense of nationalism, thus achieving its ulterior motive. Besides, only by creating a turbulent surrounding environment can Abe have the excuse to increase military budget, expand the JSDF and amend the constitution. It's worth mentioning that the Abe administration took a series of steps, including deploying the THAAD, to enhance its military strength, stir conflicts between China and Japan and instigate

ABOUT THE USAF CUWS The USAF Counterproliferation Center was established in 1998 at the direction of the Chief of Staff of the Air Force. Located at Maxwell AFB, this Center capitalizes on the resident expertise of Air University, while extending its reach far beyond - and influences a wide audience of leaders and policy makers. A memorandum of agreement between the Air Staff Director for Nuclear and Counterproliferation (then AF/XON), now AF/A5XP) and Air War College Commandant established the initial manpower and responsibilities of the Center. This included integrating counterproliferation awareness into the curriculum and ongoing research at the Air University; establishing an information repository to promote research on counterproliferation and nonproliferation issues; and directing research on the various topics associated with counterproliferation and nonproliferation. The Secretary of Defense's Task Force on Nuclear Weapons Management released a report in 2008 that recommended "Air Force personnel connected to the nuclear mission be required to take a professional military education (PME) course on national, defense, and Air Force concepts for deterrence and defense." As a result, the Air Force Nuclear Weapons Center, in coordination with the AF/A10 and Air Force Global Strike Command, established a series of courses at Kirtland AFB to provide continuing education through the careers of those Air Force personnel working in or supporting the nuclear enterprise. This mission was transferred to the Counterproliferation Center in 2012, broadening its mandate to providing education and research to not just countering WMD but also nuclear deterrence. In February 2014, the Center’s name was changed to the Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies to reflect its broad coverage of unconventional weapons issues, both offensive and defensive, across the six joint operating concepts (deterrence operations, cooperative security, major combat operations, irregular warfare, stability operations, and homeland security). The term “unconventional weapons,” currently defined as nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons, also includes the improvised use of chemical, biological, and radiological hazards. The CUWS's military insignia displays the symbols of nuclear, biological, and chemical hazards. The arrows above the hazards represent the four aspects of counterproliferation - counterforce, active defense, passive defense, and consequence management.

Issue No.1244, 9 December 2016 United States Air Force Center for Unconventional Weapons Studies| Maxwell AFB, Alabama https://cuws.au.af.mil \ https://twitter.com/USAF_CUWS Phone: 334.953.7538