Report – The El Niño phenomenon, second rainy season. July‐October 2009

1. Key highlights

• 21.424,81 hectares of forest, vegetation and crops were burned in the period 1 June – 4 October. • The driest September in the last 31 years – with rainfall below 50% of the normal. • The departments of Huila, Cundinamarca, Tolima, Nariño and Valle de Cauca were the most affected. • High temperatures due to the “El Niño” will continue during the first quarter of 2010. • The second rainy season of 2009 was shorter than normal in the month of October.

Abnormal rainfall during the month of September.

As can be noted from the map regarding the abnormal rainfall in most of the departments in the Andean Region, the rainfall was between moderately below and well below normal (IDEAM1).

Well below normal Moderately below normal Slightly below normal Normal Slightly above normal Moderately above normal Well above normal

Source: Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM).

1 Boletín Informativo Sobre El Monitoreo del fenómeno de “El Niño, No.3, 14 October 2009. 1 2. General situation

El Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales (IDEAM)2 reported that from July through September, the “El Niño” phenomenon accentuated the mid‐year dry season that normally occurs in the Caribbean and Andean regions. The most critical conditions of low rainfall occurred in July and August in the southern Andean region, especially in large sections of the departments of Tolima, Huila, Valle del Cauca, Cauca and in some areas of Cundinamarca, Boyacá and Nariño. There was a rainfall deficit in large parts of the Valle del in August and September.

The “El Niño” phenomenon began to present itself in May 2009. By mid‐june, the early formation of the phenomenon was obvious, impacting heavily on the summer climate. Increased temperatures were registered in practically the entire tropical Pacific and the values of the increased warming show an increase of between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees Celsius above the average for this period (IDEAM3).

EVENTS PER El Sistema Nacional para Prevención y Atención (SNPAD4) reported that 5 DEPARTAMENT between 1 June and 8 October, 421 events related to high temperatures and lack of rain, affecting the vegetation cover were recorded. There was not registered as much impact in June as in the following three months HUILA 108 with higher than average temperatures measured across the country. The CUNDINAMARCA 99 departments most affected were Huila, Cundinamarca and Tolima, where

TOLIMA 52 61% of reported events occured.

NARIÑO 44 VALLE DEL 35 CAUCA

BOYACA 23

QUINDIO 14 EVENTS PER MONTH CAUCA 10

MAGDALENA 9 282 ANTIOQUIA 9 NORTE DE 8 SANTANDER

SANTANDER 7

66 VICHADA 1 45 13 15 GUAINIA 1

CALDAS 1 June July August September October

Source: Sistema Nacional de Prevención y Atención Source: Sistema Nacional de Prevención y Atención de Desastres (SNDPAD). de Desastres(SNPAD)6.

PRECIPITATION September: During September especially, dry conditions prevailed and the effects of the ongoing “El Niño” phenomenon became highly noticeable. The total amount of rainfall showed significant deficits in most parts of the country, particularly in some areas of the Caribbean region (Bolivar and Atlantic) and the Andean region (Santander, Norte de Santander, Antioquia, Quindió, Tolima, Bogota, Huila and Nariño) where the rainfall only amounted to 30% of the normal for the season. September turned out to be the driest September in the last 31 years in cities like Barranquilla, Cartagena, Medellín and among other locations, with lower values in rainfall at many locations in the Andean region than during the intense period of “El Niño” in September 1997. In cities with temperate climate like Armenia, Pereira, Ibague, and Medellin, temperatures above 30°C ocurred, i.e. 2 and 3 degrees Celsius above normal (IDEAM7).

2 The Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM). 3 Boletín Informativo Sobre El Monitoreo del fenómeno de “El Niño”, No.3, 14 October 2009. 4 The National System for Disaster Prevention and Response (SNPAD). 5 Varios types of damages due to fire in the vegetation cover. 6 http://www.sigpad.gov.co/emergencias_detalle.aspx?idn=41 (08.10.2009). 7 Boletín Informativo Sobre El Monitoreo del fenómeno de “El Niño, No.1 y 3, 17 September and 14 October 2009. 2 October: The IDEAM reported that in October the reduction in rainfall has been more noticeable in the north of the country, while in most departments of the Andean region the rains have been slightly lower than normal and in some areas moderately below normal.

STATE OF THE VEGETATION COVER

FIRES IN THE VEGETATION COVER 2009 TYPES OF VEGETATION COVER AFFECTED (Area in hectars) 1 June – 4 October Forest Forest Forest Crops Moorlands Savannas / Pastures Stubble Vegetation TOTAL AREA dense native planted dry grasslands improved dry 4.243,5 79 1 1.738,5 17,3 786,1 726 5.703,1 1.916,7 15.211,2 (21.424,81)* Source: Sistema Nacional de Prevención y Atención de Desastres (SNPAD).

The SNPAD reports that 21.424,81 hectares of vegetation were affected by fires in the period 1 June ‐ 4 October. The SNPAD has detailed information about 15.211,2 hectares, but also reports that some 6046,81 hectares have been affected in the departments of Huila, Tolima, Cauca and Cundinamarca during this period. There are no details available on the damages, except for a fire in the Municipality of La Sierra in the Department of Huila, where SNPAD reports: 1 person dead, 40 houses damaged and 200 families affected. However, all the events reported fire damages on the vegetation affecting areas between 10 hectares up to damages of 2,200 hectares in the Department of Huila on September 9 (SNPAD)8. The Dirección de Gestión del Riesgo (DGR)9 reports that the total number of fires presented is not posible to specify, as in some cases the information provided corresponds to the monthly sum of fires in a given area10.

Due to the prolongation of the summer and little rainfall, the number of forest fires in parts of the country increased, among which include the Andean and Inter‐Andean forests, the moorlands, the pasture and crop areas, particularly in the south‐west of the Andean region. The departments most affected were Cundinamarca, La Sabana de Bogotá, Boyacá, Norte de Santander, Santander, Caldas, Quindió, Tolima, Huila, Valle del Cauca, Cauca and Nariño (IDEAM).

THE STATE OF THE MAIN RIVERS IDEAM reported that in September, the largest rivers in the country reached lewels as low as during the strong "El Niño" phenomenon in 199711.

Cauca River: Upper basin: During mid‐september and the first week of October, the behaviour of the up to the station of () showed a downward trend and levels below the minimum average for the month of October. Also, it should be noted that the levels in the beginning of 2009 showed values above average because of the above mentioned conditions associated with the presence of the "La Niña" phenomenon. It is expected that the levels will increase as the rainy season will bring more rain to the area.

Lower basin: The levels to date are very similar to those recorded during the strong “El Niño” event in 1997, although there were some moderate increases during the first week of October at the lower part of the basin at Las Varas in the Municipality of Guaranda (Sucre).

Magdalena River: The is one of the most affected by the heat wave, drastically reducing its volume, resulting in constraints in navigation on the river due to the low water levels hindering the passage of heavy vessels.

Upper, middle and lower basin: In the upper basin, in the Magdalena River as well as in its tributaries ‐ especially the Paez River, increases in water levels were registered during the first week of October. These contributions are regulated by the reservoir of Betania. The behavior of the Magdalena river level at its middle and lower sections (Puerto Salgar, Puerto Berrio, Barrancabermeja, El Banco and Calamar) in general reached the lowest values of the year in late September.

8 http://www.sigpad.gov.co/emergencias_detalle.aspx?dn=41 (08.10.2009). 9 The Risk Management Directorate (DGR). 10 Boletín Informativo No. 162, 28 September, 2009. 11 Boletín Informativo Sobre El Monitoreo del fenómeno de “El Niño, No.2 y 3, 24 September and 14 October, 2009. 3 However, with the arrival of the second rainy season during the last week of September, the levels have increased and it is expected that this situation will continue.

Bogotá River According to the Centro de Monitoreo Hidrológico y del Clima de la CAR12, a major deficit of rainfall was observed during the past four months in the upper part of the Bogota River, a situation that could affect populated areas of middle and lower basins of the river13. Since August, there has been a noticeable reduction in rainfall in the upper basin of the Bogota River and the Bogotá River as well as the River Machetá recorded low levels. Other basins in the area recorded low to critical levels (IDEAM).

ENERGY According to the Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (the Ministry of Environment), the water reservoirs did not reach a critical level in September. However, September was a critically dry month and levels were the lowest in the last five years. El Ministerio de Minas y Energía (The Ministry of Mines and Energy) assured that the reservoirs in September had a storage capacity of 67%. Even though there was no cause for alarm, they warned that the reservoir levels had fallen dramatically in a very short time. In August, the level was at 75%, representing a reduction of 8% for September.

IDEAM recommended developing plans designed to promote energy conservation. In Antioquia, one of the most affected departments, the Empresas Publicas de Medellin (EPM), who is the largest provider of public services, warned the community about the need to save electricity and water in order to prevent the reservoirs to fall to levels that would force rationing of energy services. El Viceministerio de Agua (the Vice Ministry of Water) stated that the departments and municipalities affected would possibly have to impose restrictions on the services14.

According to the Empresa de Acueducto y Alcantarillado de Bogotá (EAAB) (the Water Supply and Sewerage Company of Bogotá), Bogota and 11 surrounding municipalities have sufficient water reserves for 7 months in order to avoid rationing, but encourages citizens to use water rationally. Cali is one of the cities most affected and have imposed water rationing in some areas, as well as lowering the pressure in order to avoid that the service cuts is extended to more areas.

AGRICULTURE The Agricultural Society of Colombia (SAC)15 reported that the heat wave could generate an unprecedented rise in food prices. The SAC reports that short‐cycle crops would be the most impacted, with an inevitable readjustment of prices for the final consumer or a lower crop production.

The crops that may be most affected by the intense heat are cereals, beans, corn and vegetables, which has a cycle that lasts five to six months and which will be harvested between the end of this year and mid‐201016.

On October 13, the SAC reported that for the rest of the year the country will have problems of supply and demand. The Society of Farmers and Ranchers in Colombia (SAG)17 reported that the phenomenon will hit the agricultural sector throughout the country. It also affects those who have water wells to supply their activities. They will be affected as more liquid is evaporating due to the heat18.

HUMANITARIAN IMPACTS The drought and the fires mostly affected the vegetation cover, the agriculture and the animals. El Sistema Nacional Para Prevención y Atención de Desastres (SNPAD) reports that one person died on 29 August due to the heat. The victim was a woman and according to the Colombian Society of Cardiology19, she died due to the heat having a fatal impact on her health20.

12 The Center of Hydrology and Climate Monitoring. 13 El Tiempo 18 September, 2009. 14 El Tiempo 18 September, 2009. 15 La Sociedad de Agricultores de Colombia (SAC). 16 La Sociedad de Agricultores de Colombia (13.10.2009) 17 La Sociedad de Agricultores y Ganaderos de Colombia (SAG). 18 El Colombiano (06.08.2009). 19 Sociedad Colombianade Cardiología. 20 http://www.sigpad.gov.co/emergencias_detalle.aspx?idn=41 and http://www.radiosantafe.com/2009/08/03/ola‐de‐calor‐provoca‐primera‐muerte‐en‐ colombia/. 4 4. Predictions – the climate and impacts of the “El Niño”

The “El NIÑO” PHENOMENON was analized during the IX Climate Outlook Forum for the Western South America21 in Cuzco, Peru, during 26‐27 October 2009. Statistical analyses were available from 215 stations of the Meteorological Services of Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Chile, with oceanographic and weather forecasts on a global scale during the period November 2009‐January 2010. The predictions for Colombia were as follows: “Major probability that the amount of rain will be lower than the average normal for the season in large parts of the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions, in the Llanero plains and the Amazon. To the east of the country, rainfall is projected to be close to the averages of the season, including the north and east of the Orinoco and Amazon in the south‐east"22.

SEASONAL PROGNOSIS ‐ WESTERN SOUTH‐AMERICA Probability of rain: Nov‐2009 – Jan 2010

Source: IDEAM.

Historically, October is considered the rainiest month of the year. However, this year the rainfall has decreased 20‐30% due to the intense summer brought by the “El Niño” phenomenon in the entire country. Normally, this second rainy season lasts until mid‐December. Nevertheless, due to the influence of the “El Niño” in the coming months, the total amount of rainfall will be less than normal for the period. IDEAM predicts that the rainfall in November will decrease and that the country will experience a stong summer in December, i.e. with temperatures above normal.

21 El IX Foro de Perspectivas Climáticas para el Oeste de Sudamérica. 22 Pronóstico Estacional Oeste de Sudamérica nov 2009 – ene 2010. IX Foro de Perspectivas Climáticas para el Oeste de Sudamérica. Cuzco, Perú 26‐27 Octubre 2009. 5 During the second rainy season this year, the rainfall will be less in the central and northern parts of the Caribbean region, while in the areas of the Gulf of Uraba, in the central and northern parts of the Pacific region and in the east of the country, rainfall close to the average for the season will be expected. The southern and eastern parts of the country are likely to experience a slight excess compared to historical values of the season (IDEAM23).

During the month of October, the departments of Chocó, Huila, Cundinamarca, Antioquia, Bolivar, Cordoba and Tolima were the ones most affected by flooding and strong winds.

Chocó Department San José del Palmar Municipality: On 5 October, flooding left damages on the main road in the municipality and destroyed crops in the area.

Municipio de Bagadó: On 10 October, SNPAD reported that flooding in the the Municipality of Bagadó left a large part of the population in San Marino, Piedra Honda, Engribadó, Playa Bonita, Cuajando, Muchichi, El Salto and Ochoa affected. 3,895 persons were reported affected and a total of 779 houses were damaged. There are no reports of destroyed house.

Huila Department Neiva, and Guadalupe municipalities: In October, three municipalities in the Department of Huila were seriously affected by strong winds: On 11 October, 340 persons and 68 houses were affected in the Municipality of Neiva. On 12 October, 250 persons were left affected and 50 houses were damaged, and on 19 October, 250 persons were affected and 45 houses were damaged.

Cundinamarca Department

Flooding in Bogota, 19 October 2009. Source: www.radiosantafe.com.

Bogotá and Zipacón municipalities: Bogotá experienced heavy rains and flooding on 12, 19 and 20 October. On 12 October, 120 persons were affected and 60 houses were damaged in the neighbourhoods of Perdomo and Bosa in the south of the city. On 19 and 20 October, no persons or houses were reported affected, but blockage of several drainage systems resulted in flooding of several roads, damaging 30 vehicles. On 20 October, the Fucha River flooded due to the heavy rains, affecting the Boyacá avenue and the Fontibón sector.

On 13 October, the Municipality of Zipacón was affected by flooding in the rural area of El Ocaso, leaving 30 persons affected and 6 houses damaged.

23 Boletín Informativo Sobre El Monitoreo del fenómeno de “El Niño, No.3, 14 de Octubre 2009. 23 Pronóstico Estacional Oeste de Sudamérica nov 2009 – ene 2010. IX Foro de Perspectivas Climáticas para el Oeste de Sudamérica. Cuzco, Perú 26‐27 de Octubre 2009.

6 La Pintada, Medellín and La Unión municipalities: On 13 October, the Municipality of Pintada was affected by strong winds, leaving 90 persons affected and 18 house damaged. On 19 October, the neighbourhood of San Javier in the city of Medellín was affected by a strong wind leaving 124 persons affected and 35 houses damaged. The neighbourhood of Los Girasoles in the Municipality of La Unión was also affected on 19 October as flooding left 225 persons affected and 45 houses damaged.

Bolívar Department Cartagena Municipality: On 15 October, the city of Cartagena suffered from flooding, affecting the neighbourhoods of Las Palmeras, El Paraíso, Fredonia, Villa Rosita and Olaya Herrera. The events left a total of 142 persons affected and 23 houses damaged.

Córdoba Department Cereté y Lorica municipalities: On 15 October, flooding occured in the municipalities of Cereté and Lorica, leaving a large part of the population affected. A total of 1,995 persons were affected in the two municipalities and 399 houses were damaged.

Tolima Department Municipality: On 18 October, the rural village of San Felipe in the Municipality of Armero was affected by strong winds affecting 75 persons and leaving 15 houses damaged.

Sources IDEAM www.ideam.gov.co DGR www.sigpad.gov.co SNPAD www.sigpad.gov.co OCHA Colombia www.colombiassh.org Sociedad de Agricultores de www.sac.org.co Colombia (SAC) La Sociedad de Agricultores y www.sagvalle.org Ganadores de Colombia (SAG) El País http://www.elpais.com.co/paisonline/calionline/notas/Agosto092009/incen2.html Radio Santafé http://radiosantafe.com

* This report is based on information compiled by OCHA through the OCHA information system and is based on official and secondary sources. In case of questions or need for elaboration of information, please refer to the stated sources.

Contacts OCHA Colombia María José Torres Macho Maria Claudia Marín Head of Office OCHA Information Officer Calle 98 No.10‐15 oficina 401, Bogotá Calle 98 No.10‐15 oficina 401, Bogotá Tel: (+57) 1 6221100 / Fax: (57) +1 6221232 Tel: (+57) 1 6221100 / Mob: (+57) 3115166667 E‐mail: [email protected] E‐mail: [email protected] Nina A. Brattvoll Reporting Officer Calle 98 No.10‐15 oficina 401, Bogotá Tel: (+57) 1 6221100 E‐mail: [email protected] *For more information, please consult the OCHA Colombia web page: http://www.colombiassh.org

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