Rural Development Institute

The Importance of Rural : A Discussion Paper

May 2015

William Ashton, Ph.D.,Director, The Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Scott McCullough, MCP, Research Associate, The Institute of Urban Studies, University of

www.brandonu.ca/rdi • Phone: (204) 571-8513 Copyright © May 2015 Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Brandon University established the Rural Development Institute in 1989 as an academic research centre and a leading source of information on issues affecting rural communities in Western Canada and elsewhere. RDI functions as a not-for-profit research and development organization designed to promote, facilitate, coordinate, initiate and conduct multi-disciplinary academic and applied research on rural issues. The Institute provides an interface between academic research efforts and the community by acting as a conduit of rural research information and by facilitating community involvement in rural development. RDI projects are characterized by cooperative and collaborative efforts of multi- stakeholders. The Institute has diverse research affiliations, and multiple community and government linkages related to its rural development mandate. RDI disseminates information to a variety of constituents and stakeholders and makes research information and results widely available to the public either in printed form or by means of public lectures, seminars, workshops and conferences. For more information, please visit www.brandonu.ca/rdi. Rural Development Institute

Introduction

The Rural Development Institute is celebrating Rural Manitoba continues to build on its proud 25 years as an academic research centre at history and significant achievements while facing Brandon University. In recognition of this a challenging future. Identified primary anniversary, the Institute has commissioned a challenges include declining population in some series of Rural Factsheets. The eleven Factsheets regions, youth retention, changes to immigration detail ongoing changes to Manitoba’s rural policy, the changing nature of primary farming, demographics and economy. The intent of the and significant infrastructure deficits. Yet rural factsheets is to compile and make more widely Manitoba is a major contributor to the provincial available, information about rural Manitoba that economy and deeply integrated into the national is currently difficult to access. The Factsheets and international economies. The rural economy were supported by two Workshops where is important in and of itself; and due to its representatives of a dozen organizations (see integrated nature, the overall provincial economy Appendix A) working in rural areas or on rural is reliant on the health of rural areas. development, commented on the utility of the Factsheets, and how they could be used to guide policy. This discussion paper builds upon aspects

of the Factsheets and comments from the RuR al Development InstI

Workshops and identifies emerging challenges Rural Population Sizetute and Change RuRal Development InstItute www.brandonu.ca/rdi/ and policy pathways. www.brandonu.ca/rdi/ July 2014 highlights • In 2012, Manitoba’s non-metr Immigrant Arrivals July 2014 metropolitan area of Winnipeg) was 489 from 450 thousand in 1996. o population (outside the • In 2012, 40% of Manitobans lived in a higher than the 30% share at the C thousand, up • Manitoba’s non-metro populat units larger than a community should be c HigHligHts year since 1996.Figure 1. Immigrant arrivals non-metro outside Winnipeg area, in 2012‘urban’ or ‘rural’. For community issue • Non-metro areas have maintained 40 anada-level. geographic units should be cla • In each year since the mid-2000s, there have been were 2,094 individuals,ion has down grown from in each3,587 in 2009 population since 1991, du about 2,000 immigrant arrivals per year in the census Findings metro population grew more lassified as divisions (CDs) outside Winnipeg. s, smaller population. Data is available for various ssified as ‘urban’ or ‘rural’. • This may be compared to the situation in Winnipeg e to periods when% of Manitoba’s the non- • From 2006 to 2011 within non-m level of density and distance to d where the number of immigrants has increased three- than Manitoba’s metro growth occurred in the smaller citie For many economic development di fold during the same period. In 2012, the Winnipeg measures of ‘rurality’ (i.e. to cities and in northern areas. This analysts distinguish between CD ranked #2 in Canada in terms immigrant arrivals ensity). general pattern across Canada. etro Manitoba, strong having access to agglomeratio per capita. s, in areas adjacent population living outside the reach scussions, • In recent years, there were about 750 immigrants per replicates the economy. To make this distinctionthe population living in or year (about 1% of the population) arriving in CD #7 metro and non-metro n economies (includes Brandon) and about 500 immigrants per 3 and the Manitoba’s non-metro populati of an agglomerated year (under 1% of the population) arriving in CD #3 4 areas in Manitoba. What is rural? 2012, up from 450 thousand in , we present data for (includes Winkler, Morden and Altona) and in CD #2 The number of arrivals in 2012 was the 4th Rural is density and distance (includes Steinbach). consecutive year of decline in immigrant arrivals – low population density and / or Figure 1. on was 489 thousand in • For the latter two CDs, this is a decline from a higher compared to the high of 3,587 arrivals in 2009. The population density 489 thousand Manitoba’s in 2012 non-metro 1996popula (Figure 1). number of immigrant arrivals in the mid-2000s. number toof densityimmigrant – specifically, arrivals in the CDs outside density place which is a long distance 1 population density place,. If youWinnipeg you live in a a approachedlong low populationdistance 2,000 to immigrants in 2001 and has fluctuated around 2,000 immigrants per year tion reached The typical first question insince a ru that time. – what is Manitoba’s rural population? are ‘really’ from rural. a high However, the number of immigrant arrivals in Winnipeg WHy iMMigRAnt ARRivAls?The objective of this factsh has increasedral policy discussionfrom less than is 4,000 individuals in the By about 2030, there will be fewerand change births thanin Manitoba’s deaths rural po late 1990s to over 12,000 in the last two years. in Canada. At that point, populationThe choice growth of a willdefinition only of eet is to document the size In 2012, the CD outside Winnipeg that received the occur via international immigration.the issue Communities being discussed most immigrants was CD #7 (includes Brandon) with who want to grow will needdevelopment to attract migrants is being from considered, th pulation. elsewhere in Canada and / or they will need to attract rural767 should immigrant be based arrivals on during the year. The number 1. See Reimer, Bill and Ray D. Bollman. 2 *Reclassification is not an issue in th for Rural Development Policy an . If regionalhas fluctuated economic around 750 immigrant2006 boundaries ofarrivals metro a in the immigrants. (ed.) Rural Planning and Developm Source: Statistics Canada. Annual De four years from 2009 to 2012051-0046 (Figure 2). 2. See du Plessis, Valerie, Ro nd non-metro.is time series. These data have been tabula The objective of this Factsheet“Definitions isof Rural.” to document Rural a d Rural the Planning (2010) “Understanding Policy.” Chapter enRural 1 ingeographic Canada:David Implicatio Statistics Canada, Catalogue. no. 21-006-XIE) The population in non-metro areas has ent in Canada. (Toronto:Figure Nelson Education 2. Top Ltd.). 3 census divisions for immigrant arrivalsmographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 an number of immigrant arrivalscel?catno=21-006-X&CHROPG=1&lang=eng). into rural Manitoba.land Beshiri, Ray D. Bollman and Heather Clem nd Small Town Canada Analysis Bulletin Vol. each year from 1996 to 2012 (The 3. “Agglomeration economies” are a outside Winnipeg in 2012 were CD #7, CD #3 and CD #2 ted within the A high level of immigrantagglomerated arrivals or metropolitan per capita area. implies J.A. Douglasns Figure 2 shows the size of the year- workers and access to a large market. (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/bsolc/olc-cel/olc- a relatively higher demandoptions for for their immigrantspecialized trai welcoming change in population. Note that the no d by being able to ‘rub shoulders’ wit benefit to firms and a benefit to workers enson.who lo (2001) increased in and Growth: Key Issues for Firms have access to a wide range of special3, No. 3 (Ottawa: services. (Ottawa: Statistics Canada, Agriculture and positive in each year.) Non-metro growth height w of the bar in ning and Workers workers benefitare able from to learn a wider the nuancesrange of ofemplo 601-MIE) (www.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-bin/downpu than metro growth in three years (1 An increase1 in the level of immigrant Rural arrivals andh peers. Territorial impliesSee Development:Alasia, Alessandro. A Survey (2005) of theSkills, Inno to-year percent cate in an Bollman, ray d., & ized trained 2006) and lower than metro growth Rural Working Paper no. 76, Catalogue no. n-metro data is a demand for increased services to welcome yment b/listpub.cgi?catno=21-601-MIE). years shown in Figure 2. immigrants. ashton, W. rural development institute, Btheir trade Literaturevation as larger 4. Statistics Canada defines a Census Met 997, 2005 and FinDings 21- population of 100,000 or more and in 50% or more of the employed resident in the other 13 Manitoba. See Appendix B for detailed defin In 2012, the number of immigrants who arrived in randon university, Brandon, Manitoba, July, 2014. cludesropolitan all the surrounding Area (CMA) towns (or ‘metro’) and munici as having a Census Divisions (CDs) outside the Winnipeg CD s commute to the CMA. Winnipeg is the only C itions. was 2,094 individuals (Figure 1). Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052 Annual data for immigrant arrivals are from July 1st to June 30th. palities wheretotal

MA in 1 Bollman, Ray D., & Ashton, W. Rural Development institute, Brandon University, Brandon, Manitoba, July, 2014.

The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper 1 Rural Development Institute

A Picture of Rural Manitoba

Overall, the population of rural Manitoba The rural economy (called the non-metro (defined by StatsCan as all areas outside of the economy by StatsCan) is also an important Winnipeg CMA) has grown slowly since 1996, and component of the overall Manitoba economy, now stands at 489,000, or about 40% of the constituting 35% of provincial GDP. This is a larger provincial population. However, variations exist share than the national average of 30%, making across Manitoba. Winnipeg and Census Divisions Manitoba’s rural economy larger than the (CDs) close to the city have shown consistent national average. Rural areas are also important growth since 1996. Northern areas have also for employment, generating 34% of all jobs in shown population growth, due to higher birth Manitoba. There has been slow rural job growth rates in the Aboriginal population. Four CDs in across the province since 1998, but this trend has the Parkland region have had population declines also been interrupted by periods of decline. As since 1996. Census Divisions close to Winnipeg well, the combined ‘Parklands and North have also shown positive migration from within Economic Region’ has not shown job growth Canada over this period, contributing to their during this period. growth. Immigration from outside Canada has been an important contributing factor to rural growth since the late-1990s. Immigrants have mainly settled in three rural Census Divisions: CD#7-Brandon area, CD#3 Winkler, Morden, Altona area and CD#2-Steinbach area. Contrary to many people’s expectations, primary agriculture is not the main economic sector in rural Manitoba. Rather, the rural economy is made up of the following sectors, in order of size: wholesale and retail trade; manufacturing and services that support agriculture; natural resource development, health-care services, and lastly, primary agriculture. Rural development should be understood as developing these sectors, in conjunction with agriculture. These sectors of the rural economy present opportunities for the future, even as employment in primary agriculture has declined steadily for decades.

2 The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper Rural Development Institute

Challenges & Opportunities

Rural areas of Manitoba continue to grow in the this decline including: new limits to the fees that face of ongoing challenges. Changing immigration consultants can charge, competition demographics are presenting several of these amongst provinces for new immigrants, the challenges. These include the effects of out- recent repatriation of immigration services to the migration, an ageing population, and changing federal government, increased language immigration patterns. For instance, in the 2011 to requirements for status, and new limits to the 2012 period, seven rural Census Divisions public services available to temporary foreign experienced a loss of population primarily from workers. Although immigration to rural Manitoba out-migration. Firm data on age-group changes in continues, the large number of immigrants rural areas are not available, but Chambers of arriving over the last decade is trending down, Commerce research suggests that youth moving and this limits the use of immigration as a growth to metro areas is a significant component of this strategy for rural areas. Attracting newcomers challenge. Youth retention is a critical issue for and retaining youth also requires high levels of rural areas, and some communities have begun employment and services in rural areas. Yet, to address the challenge. A cohesive strategy to many areas need to grow before such services address this issue would benefit communities. can be offered efficiently. A strategy successful in The aging workforce across Manitoba and some communities is targeting growth Canada is also resulting in fewer people entering opportunities in particular sectors outside of the labour market entries than those retiring. primary agriculture. We see the success of This is already the case in four census divisions in attracting food-processing operations in Brandon rural Manitoba (CD#1-Lac du Bonnet area, CD#5- and , multiple small manufacturing Killarney area, CD#15-Minnedosa area, CD#18- operations in the Winkler area, and health-care Gimli area). This trend is expected to continue growth in . Each of these across Manitoba until 2021 to 2027, depending initiatives has attracted new immigrants, created on economic growth and immigration rates. This growth, and enabled an increase in services. tightening of the labour market will reduce the Targeting migration from within Canada and from ability to grow the workforce and the economy in are possible opportunities for rural areas; and puts further emphasis on the growth as well. Emulating the marketing and need for youth retention and attraction strategies planning of areas successful in attracting in rural areas. At the other end of the spectrum, immigrants, such as Winkler-Morden and three northern census divisions have nearly three Brandon, may be useful to other rural regions. new entrants to the job market for each retiree Immigration in itself is innovation, bringing (CD#19-Berens River area, CD#22-Thompson knowledge and productivity to rural areas. area, and CD#23-Churchill area). These areas will Provision of services in rural areas is a key have to increase job opportunities, or face youth component to attracting and retaining new out-migration and the high social costs growth. Health services were especially seen as associated with high unemployment levels. critical, but also ‘business critical’ services that For some rural areas, immigration from outside allow small communities to exist. Essential of Canada has driven growth. Immigration has building blocks for rural communities are the been particularly attracted to rural areas where basic businesses of a gas station, grocery store, jobs and services are available. Immigration to hardware store, and pharmacy. Challenges to rural areas peaked in 2008-2009 and has declined ensuring the continuance of these businesses since. Several reasons have been suggested for include populations too low to support them,

The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper 3 Rural Development Institute

aging business owners who have little prospect of The rural economy is undergoing significant selling the business on retirement, competition long-term change. Corporatization of farms from larger urban areas, and low profit margins. continues. Vertical integration by large firms gives Long-term strategies and actions, especially market advantages to large companies and succession planning, are needed to maintain presents challenges to smaller independent these services in rural areas. farmers. Risks undertaken by independent With the understanding that the rural economy is farmers are increasing. The cost to put a crop in largely driven by wholesale / retail trade, has risen from $75 to $200 an acre. Average farm manufacturing, natural resource development, size in Manitoba is now over 1100 acres (2011), and health-care services; it is to these economic so the yearly risk to “putting in a crop” is sectors that workshop participants looked for the averaging a quarter million dollars. Farming is future. The ongoing success of food-processing also capital intensive (machinery, equipment, operations was seen as a significant opportunity buildings, land, and land-improvements). Profits for expansion. Noted were opportunities in for livestock operations are declining. These canola and hemp-oil production. Imagined, was a factors are shifting farming from small future where Manitoba ships pasta to the world independent businesses to larger corporations. instead of wheat. Shifting to this kind of value- Workshop participants questioned who will own added production will entail creating the the land when this generation of farmers retires. conditions for such development. Production Climate change presents additional challenges facilities have large impacts on rural communities and interesting opportunities. The growing and need to be strategically located, close to season and rainfall levels are changing resulting suppliers, workers, and infrastructure. This has a in changes to in the types of crops that can be high probability of creating winners and losers grown and where. Opportunities may exist in the amongst rural areas. future to growing higher margin crops. This shift The ability to grow rural economies is also in crops may also impact distribution patterns directly linked to infrastructure. In rural areas, and transportation systems; because such crops this is the ability to move agricultural and may be better marketed in a U.S. Midwest manufactured goods on highways, roads, and integrated system, rather than the current east- railways. Workshop attendees argued that these west Canadian system. Research needs to be systems have not been developed sufficiently to undertaken here to help predict climate support the growth of rural economies. adaptations on agriculture and the rural Challenges in developing highways to support the economy. oil and gas industry in southwest Manitoba is an example; as was the difficulty in moving grain by rail in 2013. The rail backlog in particular, significantly impacted the final price farmers saw for their record harvest that year. Infrastructure also affects the day-to-day lives of people living in rural areas, and therefore the ability of those areas to attract people and growth.

4 The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper Rural Development Institute

The Shifting Importance of Data

The above discussion of Manitoba’s rural Several solutions to data challenges have been demographics and development is informed by utilized by communities and organizations to access to good quality information. Data, overcome these data limitations. Some information, and research on the demographics organizations are purchasing data from private and economy of rural Manitoba are increasingly businesses. These businesses base their datasets important for planning and development. This on StatsCan data, the labour survey data, and information is also increasingly lacking. other sources while extrapolating to fill gaps in Workshop participants identified key areas where the data for rural areas and small towns. Others information is lacking that could inform policy have begun using Manitoba Health data in order decisions (see Appendix B). The current voluntary to get a different level of information. This National Household Survey (NHS) did not collect dataset also has the advantage of yearly as thorough information on rural areas as did the collection. For the 2011 census, the RM of 2006 Census. Thirty-three percent of rural Stanley provided translation service in the Manitoba census subdivision datasets (97 of Modern-Winkler area, which substantially 292), were suppressed because of low response improved their survey response rates and rates. Differing collection methodologies therefore improved the quality of data for this between rural areas and Indian Reserves may census division. also have exaggerated changes in ratios between These solutions raise significant questions about these two. StatsCan uses a very specific set of the quality and consistency of privately sourced definitions to define rural areas, as well as using data, and the fair accessibility to data for RMs the analysis of ‘rural metro-adjacent regions’. and organizations that have to pay for it. With These definitions are useful for cross-Canada the diminished role of data collection played by comparisons but the ‘rural metro-adjacent StatsCan, private firms have stepped into the gap. region’ does not align with Manitoba’s current However, there is a role for the Province to play planning framework for the Capital Region. in collecting and collating missing data, and Further, StatsCan defines agricultural workers as funding research. This will be essential in policy ‘primary agriculture’ only. This excludes all the areas where data is missing including details on other jobs that occur in rural areas and those immigration, understanding changing age cohorts that may be integrated with agriculture in rural areas, and the impacts of a variety of (manufacturing, goods, retail, and service). This input and market prices on the rural economy means that Manitoba’s ‘agricultural economy’ (see Appendix B). can appear under-emphasized in StatsCan data.

The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper 5 Rural Development Institute The ‘Landscape View’ of Manitoba’s Economy

Rural development is often thought of in isolation Manufacturing and retail are also affected by from urban economies. Likewise, discussion on global factors. Prairie agriculture is export- urban economies is often void of rural issues, dependent and goods produced in rural areas are unless a more regional question is being shipped worldwide. Economic down times on the considered. But the landscape of the Manitoba prairies may result in less sales in Canada, but economy is both rural and urban; it includes all increased sales overseas. sectors of the economy, and is integrated Agriculture has a large impact on the Winnipeg provincially, nationally, and internationally. For and Manitoba economies. Without farming, example, food processing that occurs in Winnipeg there would be huge losses in the manufacturing, is reliant on rural primary agricultural inputs, as retail, and service sectors that support well as transportation and market systems. The agriculture. This would affect jobs throughout the price of canola is reliant on the global oil seed province. Workshop participants asked, ‘How market, so Canadian farmers have little control different would downtown Winnipeg look if there over the prices they will receive. Prices for many wasn’t the grain trade and immigrants?’ other agricultural commodities are set in Chicago, and Manitoba exports are dependent on Canada/ US dollar exchange rates. The current high value of the Canadian dollar is impacting exports of potatoes, as has happened in the past with sugar beets. Increased production of hogs in China is impacting the export of Canadian hogs. Agricultural prices are also dependent on production in the American Midwest. Drought that affects the Midwest may raise commodity prices but will likely also affect output on the Canadian prairies. The 2013 situation of record crops and record prices was likely an anomaly.

6 The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper Rural Development Institute

Policy level

Planning and policy play important roles in Policy makers need to look farther to the future. Manitoba’s rural-urban development. For most Demographic changes are happening on the scale rural areas policy will be about driving growth, of decades; climate change impacts will but for Winnipeg and a few growing rural increasingly occur over this century. Adaptation communities, policy will be about managing will need to be planned for, and funded. The growth. Therefore, policy and planning needs to province is entering a period where new entrants be place-based and differentiated to build upon to the job market will not be able to replace local and regional assets. It is injudicious to treat those retiring. By 2030, there will be fewer births all Rural Municipalities the same. Some need than deaths in Canada and population growth more assistance for growth, some none at all. will only occur via international migration. Sector opportunities must be strategically Continuing to attract new, young immigrants is located. critical for Manitoba’s and Canada’s economy. Participants questioned: Understanding immigration will help plan for future retention and service requirements. • Do we want to grow rural Manitoba populations, and how is that advantageous? In rural communities, providing services, jobs, and infrastructure, will be critical to maintaining • Where should resources be invested; be it viability and growth. Programs and policies that areas of growth or areas in decline, or support rural communities will continue to be balanced. As well, how and why are such needed. Other growth strategies than decisions made? immigration will also need to be pursued, • What should be done with declining rural including: areas? Can such areas be serviced? • Encouraging value-added production over • Should we encourage regional centres in rural primary production (ship pasta, not wheat), areas or not? Where should service-centres be • Strategic investments in sectors outside of strategically located? agriculture, • Is rural growth mostly exurban (surrounding • Tax-share agreements with local communities Winnipeg)? And if so, what are the to support growth, implications? • Supporting local immigration planning, • Most internal population growth in Manitoba is especially in smaller communities without Aboriginal. This is a hugely under-utilized planning and development capacity, human resource. How do we more fully engage this community in the provincial economy? • Pursuing other economic opportunities How can we increase education and skills to including tourism/recreation strategies. increase greater labour force participation? Recognizing that prairie agriculture is export- Workshop participants emphasized that without dependent, that the commodities market is strong rural communities, there is only Winnipeg. highly variable, and that these factors impact the This would be insufficient for stability and success of rural communities; there is a need to growth. Without a strong rural foundation, there stabilize this industry. The current federal will not be a robust provincial economy. Public program, Agri-Stability, is ineffective. Participants policy, therefore, should reflect the value of also worried that efforts to stabilize the primary having prosperous rural areas that contribute agricultural sector may result in greater substantially to the provincial economy. corporatization of farms.

The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper 7 Rural Development Institute

Corporatization and the future ownership of land in rural Manitoba need to be addressed. Estimates suggest that between 65% and 70% of the farmland in North America will change hands over the next fifteen years, as current farm owners retire. Who will own this land in the future? There are people who want to buy farms but the inherent risks and low service levels in rural areas favour increasing corporate ownership of land. This will affect the requirements for services in rural areas. In this scenario, large companies own vast tracts of land and provide their own services, thus further diminishing the need for rural communities. Jobs in primary agriculture continue to decline, but other opportunities present themselves, particularly in health services, manufacturing, food processing, and wholesale and retail trade. Jobs in these sectors will be important for the ongoing health of rural areas. Rural Manitoba has much greater potential for growth than only the primary agriculture sector. Lastly, needed is a broad rural policy that can tie these many disparate opportunities and challenge-responses together into a coherent strategy. Such a strategy will recognize the interplay between changing demographics and economic development; the need for service provision and infrastructure for economic development to happen; and rationalize the ‘when’ and ‘where’ of these investments.

8 The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper Rural Development Institute

Conclusion: Why is Rural Important?

It is too easy to disregard the importance of rural Manitoba. But the Factsheets show the numbers. Forty percent of Manitoba’s population lives in rural areas. Rural areas generate 35% of provincial GDP, and 34% of all jobs. This makes the rural economy important in and of itself; but large segments of Manitoba’s economy rely on the health of rural areas because the rural economy is integrated throughout Manitoba’s economy and beyond. Rural areas are worthwhile investments in our future. They are places of growth, prosperity, and opportunities, for Manitobans and newcomers alike. There are clear opportunities, and significant challenges to ongoing growth. Rural communities can meet these challenges. Encouraging the growth of rural Manitoba will require significant policy and planning for the future. In this, there is a strong role to play for rural communities, businesses, and the provincial government.

The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper 9 Rural Development Institute

Appendix A Rural Factsheet Workshop Attendees, June 16th & 18th, 2014

Ruth Mealy Business Development Specialist, MAFRD Mona Cornock Director VAREA, MAFRD Darrell Racine Brandon University, Native Studies program chair Doug Ramsey Rural Development, Brandon University Kim Beilby Acting Director, MAFRD Tara Newton Demographics and Census Statistician, MB Bureau of Statistics Nedzad Brkic Policy Analyst, MB Credit Union Central Chris Leach Regional Manager, Municipal Government Cory Kolt Director of Policy and Communications, Manitoba Chambers of Commerce Alison Kirkland Women’s Enterprise Centre Alanna Keefe Women’s Enterprise Centre Jeff Fidyk Agri-food and Rural Economic Division, MAFRD Daryl Domitruk Director, MAFRD Craig Senchuk President of the Brandon Chamber of Commerce Mona Cornock MAFRD Kim Beilby MAFRD Dan Maizer Ag Committee, Brandon Chamber of Commerce Grant Palmer Policy Economist MAFRD Maureen Cousins MB Beef Producers Carol Duma Senior Analyst, Strategic Policy Centre, Industry Canada Dr. Craig Martin Dairy Economist, CMU Alanna Gray Policy Analyst, Keystone Agricultural Producers Peter Reimer Strategic Planning Leader, Policy Development and Analysis Centre, MAFRD

And the research team: William Ashton Director, The Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Scott McCullough Research Associate, The Institute of Urban Studies, University of Winnipeg Xanthe Zarry Research Assistant, The Rural Development Institute, Brandon University Robert Galston Research Assistant, The Institute of Urban Studies, University of Winnipeg

10 The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper Rural Development Institute

Appendix B Areas of Data Research Needed

Workshop participants identified many areas • Estimates of absolute numbers of potential where further research and data may help new entrants to the job market, rather than to guide policy. Some of these include: percentage of potential exiters from the market would be more useful. This will be Demographics: important when considering opportunities • Data is needed on changes in age structures for people living in Parklands and the for each economic region. It would be useful northern economic regions. to know if youth are leaving some rural • GDP should be available by the seven non- areas, or if retirees are leaving, as this will metro economic zones, rather than affect jobs markets and service requirements combining all of non-metro MB together, in in those areas. order to determine where growth is • Changes in population should take into occurring. account Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal peoples. Agricultural Economy: For example, Parkland has a declining overall • Corn prices should be included in the rural population, but it also has large Aboriginal factsheets because of ethanol production in population with high birth rate. The the U.S., which has strongly affected feed implication is that for the non-Aboriginal prices over the last decade. population, the decline must be even greater • The price of energy and its effect on the rural than the overall population count suggests. economy is not emphasized enough. Immigration: Farming is an energy system, and highly dependent on these input prices. • Detailed information on retention rates for new immigrants in rural areas may help • A comparison between commodity prices with planning and understanding effective and output levels would be useful for retention strategies. understanding changes to the agricultural industry. • Details of where migrants are coming from, and going to, are useful for planning service • The effect of the exchange rate on exports is delivery and retention strategies. This a factor that should be examined. The information is currently difficult to get Canadian prairies are export-dependent because different government levels use regions, and commodity prices are mostly different datasets and typically do not set in Chicago. release this information.

Rural Economy: • Data on incomes categories is needed for rural areas. • Cost of living comparisons between rural and urban areas, and between economic regions, are needed.

The Importance of Rural Manitoba: A Discussion Paper 11 Lower Concourse, McMaster Hall Complex 270-18th Street, Brandon, MB R7A 6A9

2015 - Prepared for Rural Development Institute, Brandon University