“Nature, Wealth & Power” Summer School

Philipps-Universität , Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS), 25 August – 1 September 2018

Version: 17.08.2018

Sponsored by:

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Overview of the Program Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Time/Date 25.08.2018 26.08.2018 27.08.2018 28.08.2018 29.08.2018 30.08.2018 31.08.2018 01.09.2018 08:00 – 09:00 Welcoming 09:00 – 10:00 Session (00A26) Atabaki Gutmann 10:00 – 11:00 (01A09) (01A09) Ansari 11:00 – 12:00 Kraus & (00A26) Iran Forum 12:00 – 13:00 Break Kommer Break (00A26) 13:00 – 14:00 Break Atabaki (01A09) Gutmann Arrival of Trip to Büren Departure of 14:00 – 15:00 Ansari (01A09) (01A09) Participants and Detmold Participants 15:00 – 16:00 (00A19) 16:00 – 17:00 17:00 – 18:00 Farewell Session (00A26) 18:00 – 19:00 Fischer 19:00 – 20:00 (01A09)

All rooms (in parentheses) are in the CNMS in Deutschhausstr. 12, 35032 Marburg.

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Detailed Program

Saturday, 25 August 2018

Arrival of participants. No further program planned.

Sunday, 26 August 2018

08:30 – 09:30 Welcoming & Introduction Round (Room: 00A26) 09:30 – 10:00 Break 10:00 – 13:00 First Workshop: “Energy in the Middle East – poverty, markets, and outlooks” (Room: 00A26) Dawud Ansari (DIW, ) 13:00 – 14:30 Break 14:30 – 16:00 First Workshop: “Equilibrium modelling with GAMS” (Room: 00A19) Dawud Ansari (DIW, Berlin)

Monday, 27 August 2018

09:00 – 12:00 Second Workshop: “Oil, Nature, Society, and Power in Iran” (Room: 01A09) Touraj Atabaki (International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam) 12:00 – 13:30 Break 14:30 – 16:00 Second Workshop: Critical Discussions (Room: 00A19) Touraj Atabaki (International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam)

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Tuesday, 28 August 2018

09:00 – 17:00 Third Workshop: Simulation Game (Room: 01A09) Annette Kraus (Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin) Florian Kommer (Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin) The workshop includes several breaks and starts in room 01A09. During the game, participants might change to rooms 01A24, 01A12, or 01A16.

Wednesday, 29 August 2018

09:00 – 12:00 Fourth Workshop: “Consequences of Resource Endowments for Democratization and the Use of Repression” (Room: 01A09) Jerg Gutmann (University of ) 12:00 – 13:30 Break 14:30 – 16:00 Fourth Workshop: Critical Discussions (Room: 00A19) Jerg Gutmann () 16:00 – 18:00 Break 18:00 – 19:00 Historical Context for the Trip to Büren and Detmold Sven Fischer (Philipps-Universität Marburg)

Thursday, 30 August 2018

07:00 – 07:30 Meeting in Front of CNMS 07:30 – 10:00 Bus to Büren 10:00 – 13:00 Guided Tour in the Wewelsburg 13:00 – 15:00 Break 15:00 – 16:00 Bus to Detmold 16:00 – 17:00 Visiting the Hermann Monument 17:00 – 20:00 Bus to Marburg

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Friday, 31 August 2018

2nd Iran Forum (Room: 00A26)

09:00 – 09:15 Introduction Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universität Marburg) 09:15 – 09:35 Impact of Resource Revenues on Other Types of Domestic Revenues Ladan Ghodrati (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) 09:35 – 09:55 Agent-based Modeling and Its Application in Nature and Economics Seyedfarzad Moosavi (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) 09:55 – 10:15 Ponzi Game in Water Resources Fatemeh Farzin (Tarbiat Modares University) 10:15 – 10:30 Break 10:30 – 11:15 From Water to Dust - Environmental Research in Central Asia Michael Groll (Philipps-Universität Marburg) 11:15 – 12:00 Estimating Demand of Iranian Oil by the OECD Countries Narges Salehnia (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) 12:00 – 13:00 Break 13:00 – 13:45 Control of Internet Consumption within Tehranian Households Alireza Dehghan Niri (University of Tehran) 13:45 – 14:30 Economic Sanctions and Iran’s International Trade Policy Sajjad Faraji Dizaji (Tarbiat Modares University) 14:30 – 15:15 Oil Booms and Inequality in Iran Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (Philipps-Universität Marburg)

Saturday, 1 September 2018

Departure of participants. No further program planned.

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Workshop Descriptions

First Workshop: Part I: “Energy in the Middle East – poverty, markets, and outlooks” (Room: 00A26) Part II: “Equilibrium modelling with GAMS” (Room: 00A19) Dawud Ansari (DIW, Berlin)

Description: Despite intersections between both themes, the Middle East can largely be split into resource-rich countries, whose fate is dependent on the global energy system, and net-importers, which struggle typically with the provision of (stable) energy networks. This session will give an introduction into both worlds from an interdisciplinary perspective, uniting traditional economics with energy systems, policy analysis, and engineering. Students will learn to assess the complex nature of energy in the context of different perspectives and comprehend its importance for and in the Middle East region. Upon completing the session, students will be able to detect different trends and to understand and discuss the impact of fuel market dynamics on Middle Eastern economies. Moreover, students will be able to distinguish relevant technologies for energy access and recommend appropriate policies. The lab session provides students with basic computational skills to study and predict the influence of policies on markets by implementing simple supply-and-demand equilibria in GAMS. Topics:

 Fossil fuels in today’s global energy system o Empirical overview o Role of the Middle East in the global system  The New Economics of Oil & Outlooks for fossil fuel producers o The shale oil revolution o Energy outlooks o Diversification, transformation, and political economy  Energy poverty globally and in the Middle East o Definitions and empirics o Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)  Electrification strategies and energy access governance o Subadditivity o Off-grid technologies o Fossil fuel subsidies o The way forward Lab session: Equilibrium modelling with GAMS

 Getting familiar with GAMS (General Algebraic Modelling Software)  Refresher on partial market equilibria and modelling  Implementing a partial market equilibrium in GAMS

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 Comparative statics

Biography Dawud Ansari is the director and founder of Energy Access and Development Program (EADP), research associate at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), and lecturer at Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin). He studied economics at HU Berlin, TU Berlin, and Johns Hopkins University, and he is a PhD fellow at DIW Berlin. His work bridges between the public sector and academia in the fields of energy, sustainable development, and policy analysis. Using numerical modelling as well as descriptive methods, his research focusses on fossil fuel markets, the impact of oil on Middle Eastern economies and states, and rural electrification.

Literature (obligatory) Ansari, D. (2017). OPEC, Saudi Arabia, and the shale revolution: Insights from equilibrium modelling and oil politics. Energy Policy, 111, 166-178. El-Katiri, L., & Fattouh, B. (2011). Energy poverty in the Arab world: the case of Yemen. http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/14299/1/MEP_1.pdf (p. 1 – 20)

Literature (additional) Ansari, D. & Holz, F. (2018). Scenarios of the global fossil fuel markets. SET-Nav Issue Paper D4.3. http://www.set- nav.eu/sites/default/files/common_files/deliverables/wp4/Issue%20Paper%20on%20scenarios %20of%20the%20global%20fossil%20fuel%20markets.pdf Ansari, D. (2016). Resource curse contagion in the case of Yemen. Resources Policy, 49, 444-454. Albassam, B. A. (2015). Economic diversification in Saudi Arabia: Myth or reality?. Resources Policy, 44, 112-117. Dale, S. (2015). New economics of oil. ONE J, 1, 365. Fattouh, B., Poudineh, R., & Sen, A. (2016). The dynamics of the revenue maximization–market share trade-off: Saudi Arabia’s oil policy in the 2014–15 price fall. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 32(2), 223-240. Fattouh, B., & El-Katiri, L. (2013). Energy subsidies in the Middle East and North Africa. Energy Strategy Reviews, 2(1), 108-115. Johansson, T. B., Patwardhan, A. P., Nakićenović, N., & Gomez-Echeverri, L. (Eds.). (2012). Global energy assessment: toward a sustainable future. Cambridge University Press. Pachauri, S., van Ruijven, B. J., Nagai, Y., Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Brew-Hammond, A., & Nakicenovic, N. (2013). Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030. Environmental Research Letters, 8(2), 024015. Pachauri, S., Rao, N. D., Nagai, Y., & Riahi, K. (2012). Access to modern energy: Assessment and outlook for developing and emerging regions.

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Sathaye, J., Lucon, O., Rahman, A., Christensen, J., Denton, F., Fujino, J., ... & Shmakin, A. (2011). Renewable energy in the context of sustainable development. Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Special report of SRREN. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/special- reports/srren/Chapter%209%20Renewable%20Energy%20in%20the%20Context%20of%20Sus tainable%20Development.pdf Steckel, J. C., Brecha, R. J., Jakob, M., Strefler, J., & Luderer, G. (2013). Development without energy? Assessing future scenarios of energy consumption in developing countries. Ecological Economics, 90, 53-67. Van der Ploeg, F. (2016). Fossil fuel producers under threat. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 32(2), 206-222.

Second Workshop: “Oil, Nature, Society, and Power in Iran” (Room: 01A09) Touraj Atabaki (International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam) https://socialhistory.org/en/staff/touraj-atabaki

The economy and politics of the twentieth century to a large extent has been crafted along the capturing, producing, marketing and securing of petroleum and its byproducts. The “oil civilization” as has been referred, while saturating the natural world, refashioned not only the world geopolitics but also altered everyday life of the people globally. This workshop comprises a critical and interdisciplinary examination of the impact of oil, on social relations of power, as well as on nature-society/human-environment interactions globally in general, and in Iran in particular. In this workshop we will analyze the transformative impact of oil on spatial patterns of urban and rural life, migration, work discipline, class relations and class consciousness, urban planning and urban segregation. Furthermore, on methodology, this analysis goes beyond the national frontiers and considers the reciprocal interaction between local, regional and global. The assigned readings introduce the workshop participants to both conventional theories of resource access, as well as more critical approaches to oil extraction and consumption (including post-structuralist, Marxian, and actor-network theories). We will differentiate between the first set of theoretical and analytical approaches that tend to reduce petroleum to a material resource, and a merely passive product of nature that is external to society; versus alternative analytical frameworks that question the duality of society/nature, and frame petroleum as a material agent that is constitutive of the manner in which inter-social and social/natural dynamics are shaped in a relational way.

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Required Readings: Gavin Bridge and Philip Le Billon, Oil, 2nd edition (Cambridge, MA: Polity, 2017). In this book, Chapters 1 (Nature of a Political Resource) and Chapter 6 (Governing Oil) are specifically recommended to be read. Tim Mitchell, “Carbon Democracy”, Economy & Society 38:3 (August 2009): 399-432. Tyler Priest, “The Dilemmas of Oil Empire,” Journal of American History 99, no. 1 (2012): 236– 51. Ian Bremmer & Robert Johnson, “The Rise and Fall of Resource Nationalism” Survival 51:2 (2009): 149-158. Touraj Atabaki, - “From ‘Amaleh (Labor) to Kargar (Worker): Recruitment, Work Discipline and Making of the Working Class in the Persian/Iranian Oil Industry”, International Labor and Working-Class History, 84 (2013): 159-175. Touraj Atabaki, "Far from Home, But at Home: Indian Migrant Workers in the Iranian Oil Industry", Studies in History, 31, (2015): 85-114. Kaveh Ehsani, “Disappearing the Workers”, Touraj Atabaki, Elisabetta Bini, K. Ehsani (eds), Working for Oil (NY: Palgrave, 2018): 11-34. Touraj Atabaki and Kaveh Ehsani, “Oil and Beyond Expanding British Imperial Aspirations, Emerging Oil Capitalism, and the Challenge of Social Questions in the First World War” coauthor Kaveh Ehsani, in Helmut Bley and Anorthe Kremers (eds), The World During the First World War (Essen: Klartext Verlag, 2014): 261-287. Peyman Jafari, “Fluid History: Oil Workers and the Iranian Revolution”, Touraj Atabaki, Elisabetta Bini, K. Ehsani (eds), Working for Oil (NY: Palgrave, 2018): 69-98.

Additional Readings: Here are some important web-based research sites and forums that will be helpful for the workshop participants: Alberta Climate Dialogue: https://www.albertaclimatedialogue.ca/ Climate & Capitalism: http://climateandcapitalism.com/2015/12/31/top-10-cc-articles-of-2015- and-of-all-time/ Petro Cultures: http://petrocultures.com/resources/ Natural Resource Governance Institute: https://resourcegovernance.org/ Open Society Foundation: https://www.opensocietyfoundations.org/search?key=energy

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Third Workshop: Simulation Game (Room: 01A09) Annette Kraus & Florian Kommer (Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin)

Is it a curse or a blessing if an unstable state discovers it has oil resources that are large enough to remedy many economic difficulties? Who benefits from resources and what are the consequences in relation to security policy that natural resources have for the dynamics of domestic conflicts? Actors in this simulation game range from private and state-owned oil companies to national and municipal governments as well as sub-state opposition and rebel groups.

Two trainers from planpolitik will conduct the game. They have a vast experience with simulation games. You can find more information on them here: http://planpolitik.eu/english/

Fourth Workshop: “Consequences of Resource Endowments for Democratization and the Use of Repression” (Room: 01A09) Jerg Gutmann (University of Hamburg)

A model from Acemoglu and Robinson (2006) will be introduced in the first part of the workshop and later in the second part applied to other examples.

Required Readings: Robinson, James A, and Daron Acemoglu. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. Chapters 4 and 5.

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Biographies (Alphabetical Order)

Dawud Ansari (DIW, Berlin) Dawud Ansari works as a researcher and PhD fellow in the group for international resource markets within the Department Energy, Transportation, Environment. Additionally, he is the founder and director of the non-profit organization Energy Access and Development Program (EADP), which is engaged in project work, training, research, and consulting in the field of (decentral) energy systems in developing countries. Previous to that, Dawud studied (mathematical) economics at TU Berlin (best of his year), HU Berlin, and Johns Hopkins University Systems Institute. He has multiple years of experience as a lecturer in economics, energy, and mathematics. Before joining DIW Berlin, He also worked for the prominent Berlin Social Science Center (WZB) on applied game theory and economics of the Middle East. His research focusses on the analysis of energy systems and fossil fuel markets as well as the interdisciplinary study of developments in the Middle East, using complementarity equilibrium modelling and empirical methods. Previous results are frequently presented on national and international congresses and talks, additional to their publication in renowned scientific journals.

Touraj Atabaki (International Institute of Social History, Amsterdam) Dr Touraj Atabaki is Senior Researcher at the International Institute of Social History. He is Professor Emeritus, holder of the chair of the Social History of the Middle East and Central Asia at the Leiden University. Studied first theoretical physics and then history, he did his doctoral dissertation under the supervision of Prof Ervand Abrahamian (Baruch College) on the ethnicity and regional autonomy in the twentieth century Iran; it was published in 1993 and reprinted in 2000. Touraj Atabaki coordinated number of projects, including Social History of Labor in the Iranian Oil Industry 1908-2008 and Practicing Modernization in Turkey and Iran. He is also a participant in the international project of the Global Collaboratory on the History of Labor Relations 1500-2000. Touraj Atabaki is the founder of the Sadighi Research Fund and the Prince Dr Sabbar Farman-Farmaian Research Project. Touraj Atabaki served as: President of the Association of Iranian Studies, President of the European Society for Central Asian Studies, member the Academic Board of the International Institute of Asian Studies, member of the Editorial Board of the Central Asian Survey. And severs as a member of the Board of Consulting Editors of the International Labor and Working-Class History, member of the advisory Council of Journal of Iranian Studies. Atabaki's fields of research encompass Social History of the Middle East, the former Soviet South, the Caucasus and Central Asia, Labour and Subaltern Studies, Migration and post-Colonial Historiography.

Alireza Dehghan (University of Tehran) Alireza Dehghan is Associate Professor of Communication and Associate Dean of Faculty of Social Science at University of Tehran. He gained his PhD in Sociology at University of New South Wales in 1996.

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Sajjad Faraji Dizaji (Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran) Sajjad Faraji Dizaji is Assistant Professor of Economics at Tarbiat Modares University (TMU) and got his PhD in the field of Financial Economics and International Economics (2012). His most recent researches and publications are about political economy of oil and also international sanctions in Iran. Sajjad Dizaji is the contact person of the NAREM project at TMU.

Mohammad Reza Farzanegan (University of Marburg, CNMS) Since 2012, Mohammad Farzanegan is Professor of Economics of the Middle East and Chair of Research Group at Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies (CNMS) of Philipps-Universität Marburg (2012-2015 as Assistant Professor). He was born in Tehran and graduated from Allameh Tabatabaei University with a B.A. in Theoretical Economics in 1999, and from University of Tehran with a M.Sc. in Energy Economics and Marketing in 2002. He acquired his Ph.D. in Economics (Dr.rer.pol) from Technische Universität Dresden (2009) with summa cum laude. Following his PhD project, he received the Georg Forster Research Fellowship for Postdoctoral Researchers of Alexander von Humboldt Foundation for his research project at ZEW Mannheim (Environmental and Resource Economics, Environmental Management Department under supervision of Professor Löschel) and TU Dresden (Professor Thum). Mohammad Farzanegan is the project leader of “Political Economy of Natural Resource Management in Iran (NAREM)” with University of Tehran, Tarbiat Modares University, and Mashhad University.

Sven Fischer (University of Marburg, CNMS) Sven Fischer is Researcher at Economics of the Middle East Research Group of CNMS. He is also coordinator of the NAREM project in Marburg. He gained his MA in Political & Economics of the Middle East at CNMS in 2015 and his BA in Social Science from Ruhr-Universität Bochum in 2012.

Jerg Gutmann (University of Hamburg) Jerg Gutmann is post-doctoral researcher at the Institute of Law and Economics in Hamburg. He got his PhD in Economics from University of Hamburg and his Master degree in economics from University of Marburg. He works at the intersection between economics, law, and political science. Most of his research addresses questions in the new institutional economics and political economy and tries to answer them based on cross-country empirical research. Since 2018, he is a co- investigator in the DFG-funded research project Economics of Compliance with Constitutions (ECC) in cooperation with Warsaw University.

Florian Kommer (Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin) Florian Kommer is a policy advisor on the Middle East and North Africa. As a policy advisor on European Politics he was formerly part of the department EU/North America of the Heinrich- Böll-Foundation. He studied Politics, Economics and Philosophy in Hamburg, Istanbul and Passau. Throughout his studies, he worked at the Institute for European Integration, in the German

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Parliament, with a daily newspaper and finally with the European Commission in Brussels. His focus is on the future of the EU and on European development cooperation.

Annette Kraus (Heinrich Böll Foundation, Berlin) Annette Kraus works at the Heinrich Böll Foundation, a German political foundation. After some years working in and on South East Europe, she joined the International Environmental Policy Division in 2006 where she focuses on resource politics.

Narges Salehnia (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) Since 2016, Dr. Narges Salehnia is Assistant Professor of Economics at the Economics Department of Ferdowsi University of Mashhad (FUM). She gained her PhD in Economics in 2015 from FUM. Her PhD thesis was about "Pricing of Natural Gas Derivatives Using Stochastic Modelling of International Spot Prices in Henry Hub”. Currently, she is working in stochastic modelling, water economics, energy pricing, dynamic programming and agent based modelling of natural resources.

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