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Lower Rio Grande Basin Study Full Report

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Lower Rio Grande Basin Study Full Report Lower Rio Grande Basin Study Under the Authority of the SECURE Water Act (Public Law 111-11) Great Plains Region, Oklahoma-Texas Area Office U.S.Department of the Interior Rio Grande Regional Water Authority Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Colorado December 2013 Mission Statements The U.S. Department of the Interior protects America’s natural resources and heritage, honors our cultures and tribal communities, and supplies the energy to power our future. The mission of the Bureau of Reclamation is to manage, develop, and protect water and related resources in an environmentally and economically sound manner in the interest of the American public. Lower Rio Grande Basin Study Under the Authority of the SECURE Water Act (Public Law 111-11) Great Plains Region, Oklahoma-Texas Area Office U.S.Department of the Interior Rio Grande Regional Water Authority Bureau of Reclamation Denver, Colorado December 2013 Acronyms 2010 Region M Plan Rio Grande Regional Water Plan, dated October 1, 2010 ac-ft/yr acre-feet per year Basin Study Lower Rio Grande Basin Study BCSD Bias Corrected Spatially Downscaled Surface BGD brackish groundwater desalination BPUB Brownsville Public Utilities Board CMIP-3 Climate Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 DFC desired future condition DMI domestic-municipal-industrial EPA United States Environmental Protection Agency ERHWSC East Rio Hondo Water Supply Corporation ET0 reference evapotranspiration GAM Groundwater Availability Model GCM global climate model GHG greenhouse gas GMA Groundwater Management Area GNEB Good Neighbor Environmental Board GWA Groundwater Management Area HUD Housing and Urban Development IBWC International Boundary and Water Commission Interior U.S. Department of the Interior ITC Irrigation Technology Center M&I municipal and industrial mg/L milligrams per liter MGD million gallons per day NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NAWSC North Alamo Water Supply Corporation P&Gs Economic and Environmental Principles and Guidelines for Water and Related Land Resources Implementation Studies P.L. Public Law PC percentage change PM Penman-Monteith psi pounds per square inch QA/QC quality assurance/quality control Reclamation Bureau of Reclamation RGRWA Rio Grande Regional Water Authority RO reverse osmosis ROI return on investment ROW right-of-way SB1 Senate Bill 1 SECURE Science and Engineering to Comprehensively Understand and Responsibly Enhance SRWA Southmost Regional Water Authority State Water Plan 2012 Statewide plan entitled Water for Texas – 2012 TCEQ Texas Commission on Environmental Quality TDS total dissolved solids Treaty Treaty of 1944 Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande TWDB Texas Water Development Board UCM Unified Costing Model USDA U.S. Department of Agriculture USGS U.S. Geological Survey VIC Variable Infiltration Capacity Hydrology Model WAM Water Availability Model WaterSMART Sustain and Manage America’s Resources for Tomorrow WMS water management strategy WRAP Water Rights Analysis Package WSC water supply corporation WUG water user group WWCRA West Wide Climate Risk Assessment Symbols °F degrees Fahrenheit % percent § section Table of Contents Page Summary ............................................................................................................. S-1 I. Background ........................................................................................ S-1 II. Findings.............................................................................................. S-3 A. Water Supplies and Demands .................................................... S-3 B. Planning Objective ..................................................................... S-3 C. Alternatives/Adaptive Strategies ............................................... S-4 D. Next Steps and Future Considerations ....................................... S-8 E. Consequences of Taking No Action .......................................... S-9 Chapter 1: Problems, Needs, and Opportunities ........................................... 1-1 I. Introduction ........................................................................................ 1-1 A. Purpose of Study ........................................................................ 1-1 1. Local Planning Process ...................................................... 1-2 2. International Jurisdiction ................................................... 1-3 3. Social Characteristics ......................................................... 1-4 4. Environmental Characteristics ........................................... 1-6 5. Present Water and Related Land Development ............... 1-13 6. Public Involvement .......................................................... 1-14 Chapter 2: Regional Demands and Supplies and Future System Reliability ......................................................................................................... 2-1 I. Introduction ........................................................................................ 2-1 A. Chapter Organization ................................................................. 2-1 II. 2010–2060 Water Supply and Demand ............................................. 2-1 A. Surface Water Supply Availability Methodology (WAM/WRAP) ....................................................................... 2-1 B. Groundwater Supply Availability Methodology ....................... 2-6 C. 2010–2060 Water Supplies ........................................................ 2-7 D. 2010–2060 Water Demands ....................................................... 2-9 III. Projected Water Supply Deficit ....................................................... 2-16 IV. Climate Change Variable Infiltration Capacity Methodology ......... 2-18 A. Global Climate Model.............................................................. 2-18 B. Variable Infiltration Capacity Model ....................................... 2-19 1. Land Surface Simulation.................................................. 2-19 2. Period Change Flow Adjustment Factors ........................ 2-21 C. VariabIe Capacity Infiltration Surface Water Modeling Results ................................................................................... 2-23 1. Hydroclimate Projections................................................. 2-23 2. Impacts on Annual and Seasonal Runoff ......................... 2-28 3. Impacts on Reservoir Evaporation ................................... 2-29 4. Climate-affected Impacts on Irrigation Demand ............. 2-30 i Page D. Future Reliability of Facilities and Operations as Required by SECURE Water Act §9503(b)(3) ..................... 2-31 1. Summary .......................................................................... 2-31 2. Climate Change Projections ............................................. 2-32 3. Surface Water................................................................... 2-33 4. Groundwater .................................................................... 2-41 Chapter 3: Planning Objective and Water Management Strategies .......... 3-1 I. Planning Constraints .......................................................................... 3-1 A. Competition with Supply and Demand in Mexico .................... 3-1 B. Groundwater Supplies ................................................................ 3-2 C. Temporal Aspects ...................................................................... 3-2 D. Locational Aspects ..................................................................... 3-3 E. Quantitative Aspects .................................................................. 3-4 II. Planning Objective ............................................................................. 3-5 III. Water Management Strategies from the Region M Plan ................... 3-6 A. Evaluation Criteria ..................................................................... 3-7 1. Effectiveness ...................................................................... 3-8 2. Acceptability ...................................................................... 3-8 3. Completeness ..................................................................... 3-8 B. Water Management Strategies ................................................... 3-8 1. Role of Conservation ......................................................... 3-8 2. Strategies Receiving Further Evaluation ......................... 3-11 3. Implications for International Cooperation ...................... 3-15 C. Evaluation Outcome................................................................. 3-16 Chapter 4: Alternatives Formulation Report ............................................... 4-1 I. Objective ............................................................................................ 4-1 II. Limitations of the Characterization Process ...................................... 4-2 III. Water Management Strategies Evaluation ......................................... 4-2 A. Seawater Desalination ................................................................ 4-3 B. Fresh Groundwater Development .............................................. 4-3 C. Comparison of Brackish Groundwater Desalination and Non-potable Reuse ......................................................... 4-4 IV. Conclusion and Next Steps ................................................................ 4-7 Chapter 5: Alternatives Evaluation ............................................................... 5-1 I. Objective ...........................................................................................
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