20 March 2000 No 3/2000 Main Indicators for the Finnish Economy
Charts and tables
page Supply, demand and labour market
Chart 1.1 GDP: Finland and EU countries 1 Chart 1.2 GDP: quarterly and monthly indicator 1 Chart 2 GDP by sectors of origin 2 Chart 3 Manufacturing production: Finland and EU countries 2 Chart 4 Main demand components 3 Chart 5 Household sector's saving ratio 3 Chart 6 Indicators of domestic demand 4 Chart 7 Labour force and employment 5 Chart 8 Unemployment rate: Finland and EU countries 5 Table 1 Supply, demand and labour market indicators 6
External balance and sectoral finance
Chart 9 Exports of goods, volume 7 Chart 10 Imports of goods, volume 7 Chart 11 Foreign trade prices 8 Chart 12 External balance, trade account, current account 9 Chart 13 Sectoral Debt Ratios 9 Chart 14 Corporate sector borrowing 10 Chart 15 Household's borrowing 10 Chart 16 Central government finance 11 Chart 17 Foreign net debt, international comparison 12 Chart 18 Foreign net debt, per cent of GDP, per cent of exports 12 Table 2 External balance and sectoral finance indicators 13
Costs and prices
Chart 19 Earnings 14 Chart 20 Relative unit labour costs in manufacturing 14 Chart 21 Producer price indices, Finland and EU countries 15 Chart 22 Consumer prices, Finland and EU countries 15 Chart 23 Import prices and producer prices 16 Chart 24 Harmonized consumer price index, Finland and Euro countries 16 Chart 25 Timber prices and export prices of forest industry products 17 Chart 26 Dwelling prices 17 Table 3 Cost and price indicators 18 page Money market and monetary policy
Chart 27 Trade-weighted competitiveness indicator 19 Chart 28 Exchange rates 19 Chart 29 Rates of interest set by eurosystem 20 Chart 30 Key interest rates 20 Chart 31 Short-term domestic and foreign interest rates 21 Chart 31.1 Long-term domestic and foreign interest rates 21 Chart 32 Real and nominal interest rates, 3-month 22 Chart 32.1 Real and nominal interest rates, government bond yields, 10 year 22 Chart 33 Yield curve 23 Table 4 Interest rates and exchange rates 24
Financial market, securities market
Chart 34 Banks' markka lending rates and markka funding rates 25 Chart 35 Banks' interest rate margin 25 Chart 36 Bank funding from the public 26 Chart 37 Bank lending to the public 26 Chart 38 Outstanding bank credit 27 Chart 39 Hex, Helsinki Exchanges: share indices by sector 28 Chart 40 Hex, Helsinki Exchanges: share turnover 28 Chart 41 Hex, Helsinki Exchanges: market value 29 Chart 42 Government benchmark bonds 29 Chart 43 Stock of bonds outstanding in Finland 30 Chart 44 Foreign portfolio investments in Finland 30 Table 5 Key figures for the Finnish deposit banks 31 1
Chart 1.1
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FINLAND AND EU
Volume index 1970=100, s.a. 240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80 70 75 80 85 90 95 Finland EU Latest observation Q3 99 Q4 99
Chart 1.2
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
Volume index 1995=100, s.a. 130
120
110
100
90 92 94 96 98 GDP monthly indicator at producer prices GDP at market prices
Latest observation Dec 99 Q3 99 2
Chart 2. 1) GDP BY SECTORS OF ORIGIN Volume index 1995=100, s.a. 130
120
110
100
90
80
70 88 90 92 94 96 98 Industrial production Rest of the private sector Public services Latest observation Q3 99 1) GDP at producer prices
Chart 3. MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION Volume index 1995=100, trend 140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70 90 92 94 96 98 00
Finland EU
Latest observation Jan 2000 Dec 1999 3
Chart 4. MAIN DEMAND COMPONENTS
Volume index 1995=100, s.a. 180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40 88 90 92 94 96 98
Exports Fixed investment Public consumption Private consumption
Latest observation Q3 99
Chart 5. HOUSEHOLD SECTOR'S SAVING RATIO
Netsaving/netdisposableincome,% 10
5
0
-5 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98
Latest observation Q3 99 4
Chart 6. INDICATORS OF DOMESTIC DEMAND Private consumption Volume index 1995=100, s.a. 180 150
160 140
140 130
120 120
100 110
80 100
60 90
40 80 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 Imports of consumer goods Retail sales (right scale)
Latest observation Dec 99 Nov 99
Fixed investment Volume index 1995=100, s.a. 300
250
200 1)
150 2)
100
50
0 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 Imports of investment goods Building starts, 2 quarters moving average Latest observation Dec 99 Q4 99 1) Peak in March 1993 due to cruiser ship imports (FIM 1.5 billion)
2) Includes increase caused by the change in statistical periods connected with Finland's entry into the EU Chart 7. 5 LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT 1000 persons, s.a. 2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2200
2100
2000 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Labour force (EU-harmonised) Employed (EU-harmonised)
Latest observation Jan 2000
Chart 8. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE %, s.a. 20
15
10
5
0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Finland (EU-harmonised) EU
Latest observation Jan 2000 Jan 2000 6
TABLE 1
Supply, demand and labour market indicators
1997 1998 1999 1999 / 2000 Volume change from previous year, per cent
Gross domestic product 1) 6.3 5.0 3.5 2.8 Q3 at market prices
GDP monthly indicator 6.0 5.3 3.5 6.6 M12 at producer prices 3.5 M01-M12
Manufacturing production 10.0 8.9 5.7 7.0 M01
Consumption expenditure 1) 3.7 3.7 2.1 2.5 Q3 private 3.5 4.6 2.8 3.4 Q3 government 4.1 1.5 0.3 0.5 Q3
Gross fixed capital formation 1) 11.9 7.8 4.8 4.2 Q3 private 11.3 9.6 7.0 6.3 Q3 government 15.0 -0.4 -6.3 -8.0 Q3
Domestic demand 1) 4.7 4.3 1.8 -0.9 Q3
Exports of goods and services 1) 14.1 9.3 7.0 11.8 Q3
Imports of goods and services 1) 11.3 8.5 3.3 3.6 Q3
Percentage change from previous year
Employed persons 2) 2.0 2.4 3.3 1.9 M1
Per cent
Unemployment rate 2) 12.6 11.4 10.2 10.0 s.a. M1
1) European System of Accounts 1995 2) EU harmonized figures 7
Chart 9. EXPORTS OF GOODS, volume Index 1990 =100 250
200
150
100
50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 Monthly s.a. Trend
Latest observation Jan 2000
Chart 10. IMPORTS OF GOODS, volume Index 1990 =100 160
140
120
100
80
60
40 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Monthly s.a Trend Latest observation Jan 2000
The change in statistical periods caused by Finland's entry into the EU has not been taken into account in the seasonally-adjusted figures or in the trend for December 1994 8 Chart 11. FOREIGN TRADE PRICES Index 1990 = 100 FIM prices 140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
60 80 85 90 95 00
Export prices Import prices
Terms of trade 105
100
95
90
85
80 80 85 90 95 00 Finland EU
1) Foreign currency 120
110
100
90
80
70
60 80 85 90 95 00 Export prices Import prices
1) FIM prices have been deflated using the payments-weighted currency index.
Latest observation Feb 2000 Year 99 EU Chart 12. 9 EXTERNAL BALANCE 12-month moving totals
EUR billion FIM billion 12 71.3
10 59.5
8 47.6
6 35.7
4 23.8
2 11.9
0 0.0
-2 -11.9
-4 -23.8
-6 -35.7 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 Trade account (new statistics, trade in goods, fob) Current account Latest observation Jan 2000
Chart 13. SECTORAL DEBT RATIOS Gross debt as a percentage of GDP 100
80
60
40
20
0 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Corporate sector Household sector Central government
Latest observation Q3 99 Q3 99 Q4 99 10
Chart 14. CORPORATE SECTOR BORROWING
EUR billion FIM billion 12 71.3
8 47.6
4 23.8
0 0.0
-4 -23.8
-8 -47.6 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Bank lending Bonds and cp´s Other liabilities 1) Foreign liabilities
Chart 15. HOUSEHOLDS' BORROWING EUR billion FIM billion 8 47.6
6 35.7
4 23.8
2 11.9
0 0.0
-2 -11.9
-4 -23.8 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Bank lending Other liabilities 1)
1) Due to a change (1996) in how the sectoral breakdown is made, there was a FIM 3.5 billion shift from households to the corporate sector. 11
Chart 16. CENTRAL GOVERNMENT FINANCES 12-month moving totals EUR billion FIM billion 40 237.8
35 208.1
30 178.4
25 148.6
20 118.9
15 89.2 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Revenue excl. financial transactions Expenditure excl. financial transactions
EUR billion FIM billion 5 29.7
0 0.0
-5 -29.7
-10 -59.5
-15 -89.2
-20 -118.9 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Revenue surplus Net borrowing requirement
Latest observation November 99 12 Chart 17. NET INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION, international comparison Per cent of exports of goods and services in 1998 Finland
United States
Australia
Canada
New Zealand
Sweden
Spain
United Kingdom
Denmark
Austria
France
Italy
Netherlands
Germany
Belgium
Norway
Japan
-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 Net claim (-) For Austria, Canada, Germany and Netherlands the latest data available are for end 1997 and for France 1996.
Chart 18. FINLAND'S NET INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION
% 0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Per cent of GDP Per cent of exports of goods and services
Latest observation Jan 2000 13
TABLE 2
External balance and sectoral finance indicators
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Trade account EUR billion 8.8 10.1 11.2 11.0 0.9 M01
per cent of GDP 8.9 9.5 9.7 9.1
Current account EUR billion 4.0 6.0 6.6 6.4 0.3 M01
per cent of GDP 4.0 5.6 5.7 5.3
Capital account. EUR billion -6.3 -4.2 -6.4 -6.3 -0.1 M01
General government 1.1 -1.0 -4.0 -4.5 -2.6 M01
Direct investment to Finland 0.9 1.8 10.9 2.8 5.0 M01
abroad 2.8 4.6 16.8 3.9 0.7 M01
Shares 0.9 2.0 5.0 5.4 -4.0 M01
Other capital (incl. errors and omissions) -6.5 -2.4 -1.5 -6.1 2.3 M01
Foreign exchange reserve (increase -) 2.4 -1.8 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 M01
Net lending (saving minus investment) Private sector EUR billion 7.1 7.6 5.1 3.6 per cent of GDP 7.2 7.1 4.4 3.0
General government EUR billion -3.1 -1.6 1.5 2.7 per cent of GDP -3.2 -1.5 1.3 2.3
Central government EUR billion -7.1 -3.9 -1.7 -0.7 per cent of GDP -7.2 -3.7 -1.5 -0.6
Local government EUR billion 0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 per cent of GDP 0.8 -0.7 -0.3 -0.2
Social security funds EUR billion 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.8 per cent of GDP 3.3 2.8 3.1 3.1
Net foreign debt
per cent of GDP 41.9 41.0 71.9 175.7 per cent of exports of goods and services 111.6 105.0 184.3 466.8
Sectoral debt ratios (gross debt per cent of GDP)
Non-financial corporate sector 48.6 43.6 41.6 Household sector 42.0 39.7 39.2 General government (EMU) 57.1 54.1 49.0 47.1 Central government 66.8 65.3 63.0 14
Chart 19. EARNINGS Percentage change from previous year 15
10
5
0
-5 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 Negotiated wages Wage drift Real earnings Latest observation Q4 99
Chart 20. RELATIVE UNIT LABOUR COSTS IN MANUFACTURING Finland / competitor countries Index 1982=100 120
100
80
60 70 75 80 85 90 95 Common currency National currencies
Latest observation year 1998 A fall indicates improvement in competitive position 15
Chart 21. PRODUCER PRICE INDICES 12-month percentage change 8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Finland EU
Latest observation Feb 2000 Aug 1999
Chart 22. CONSUMER PRICES 12-month percentage change 15
10
5
0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00
Finland EU
Latest observation Feb 2000 Jan 2000 16
Chart 23 . IMPORT PRICES AND PRODUCER PRICES 12-month percentage change 20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00
Import price index Producer prices in manufacturing (domestic goods)
Latest observation Feb 2000
Chart 24. HARMONIZED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX 12-month percentage change 3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Finland Euro countries
Latest observation Feb 2000 Jan 2000 17
Chart 25. TIMBER PRICES AND EXPORT PRICES OF FOREST INDUSTRY PRODUCTS Index 1980 = 100 250
200
150
100
50 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 Timber prices (stumpage prices) Export prices 1) Latest observation Feb 2000
1) Export price index of Statistics Finland from beginning of 1995
Chart 26. DWELLING PRICES Index 1983 =100 250
200
150
100
50 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 Whole country Old two-roomed Whole country, real prices flats in Helsinki (deflated by consumer prices) Latest observation
Q4 99 Feb 2000 Q4 99 18
TABLE 3
Cost and price indicators, percentage change
1998 1999 2000
Labour costs
Index of wages and salaries 3.5 2.6 2.5 99Q4
Unit labour costs Whole economy 1.9 2.2 .. Manufacturing -1.0 0.6 ..
Price indices
Export prices 0.0 -4.4 6.0 M02 4.7 M01-M02
Import prices -3.5 0.6 14.6 M02 13.6 M01-M02
Producer prices -1.1 -2.5 6.8 M02 6.1 M01-M02
Wholesale prices -1.5 -0.1 7.8 M02 7.1 M01-M02
Consumer prices 1.4 1.2 2.7 M02 2.5 M01-M02
Indicator of the underlying inflation 1.0 1.3 2.5 M01
Asset prices
Stumpage prices 3.0 1.6 5.6 M02 5.3 M01-M02
Dwelling prices 10.2 8.9 9.1 99Q4
Share prices 41.6 72.1 167.5 M02 152.8 M01-M02 19
Chart 27. TRADE-WEIGHTED COMPETITIVENESS INDICATOR (OLD BANK OF FINLAND CURRENCY INDEX) Index 1982=100 92
100
108
116
124
132
140
148 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99
Latest observation Feb 2000
Chart 28. EXCHANGE RATES Rising curve=EURO strenghtens Monthly averages of selling rates in EURO, January 1990=100 80
100
120
140
160 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 US dollar Pound sterling Swedish krona
Exchange rates until 31 Dec 1998 are based on corresponding Finnish markka rates converted into euro rates at the fixed conversion rate 5.94573. Latest observation Feb 2000 20
Chart 29. RATES OF INTEREST SET BY EUROSYSTEM
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 93 95 97 99 Marginal lending rate Deposit rate Main refinancing rate Until 31 Dec 1998 the corresponding rates set by the Bank of Finland. Latest observation Feb 2000
Chart 30. KEY INTEREST RATES 20 %
15
10
5
0 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 3-month euribor (helibor until 31 December 1998) 1-month euribor (helibor until 31 December 1998) Long term bond rate (close to ten year) Latest observation Feb 2000 21
Chart 31. SHORT-TERM DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN INTEREST RATES 3-month interest rates, % 22
18
14
10
6
2 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Euribor Sweden UK US Latest observation Feb 2000
Chart 31.1. LONG-TERM DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN INTEREST RATES Government bond yields, close to 10 year, % 16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Finland Sweden UK US Latest observation Feb 2000 22
Chart 32. REAL AND NOMINAL INTEREST RATES 3-month interest rates, % 18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Nominal Real
3-month euribor (from January 1999) Latest observation Feb 2000
Chart 32.1. REAL AND NOMINAL INTEREST RATES
Government bond yields, close to 10 year, % 16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Nominal Real Latest observation Feb 2000 23
Chart 33. YIELD CURVE Maturities over one year based on government benchmark bonds, % 6.0
20.3.2000 5.5 31.12.1999
5.0
4.5
31.12.1998 4.0
3.5
3.0 maturity, years 123456789101112131415 24
TABLE 4
Interest rates and exchange rates
Market rates, %, daily averages 1999 8/99 9/99 10/99 11/99 12/99 1/2000 2/2000
EURIBOR (Helibor until 31 December 1998)
1 month 2.862 2.614 2.584 2.763 3.061 3.509 3.150 3.359 3 months 2.961 2.695 2.727 3.376 3.468 3.446 3.343 3.537 6 months 3.054 3.053 3.107 3.457 3.484 3.512 3.556 3.735 12 months 3.183 3.237 3.301 3.684 3.689 3.826 3.949 4.111 Yields on government bonds 5 years 4.07 4.45 4.60 4.93 4.72 4.79 5.12 5.19 10 years 4.74 5.15 5.32 5.56 5.27 5.36 5.75 5.72
Exchange rates, daily averages
Exchange rates until 31 December 1998 are based on corresponding Finnish markka rates converted into euro rates at the fixed conversion rate 5.94573
EUR exchange rate against US dollar, Pound sterling and Swedish krona
Daily average US dollar 1.066 1.060 1.050 1.071 1.034 1.011 1.014 0.983 Pound sterling 0.659 0.660 0.647 0.646 0.637 0.626 0.618 0.615 Swedish krona 8.807 8.752 8.634 8.727 8.633 8.586 8.597 8.511
Trade-weighted competitiveness indicator 121.2 121.4 122.5 121.8 123.1 124.2 124.2 124.8 1982=100 25
Chart 34. BANKS' MARKKA LENDING RATES AND MARKKA FUNDING RATES 16 % 14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 New markka lending Markka lending Markka deposits
Latest observation Jan 2000
Chart 35. BANKS' INTEREST RATE MARGIN Averagerateonmarkkalending-Averagemarkkadeposit,% 6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 Latest observation Jan 2000 26
Chart 36. BANK FUNDING FROM THE PUBLIC 12-month change, % 30
20
10
0
-10 90 92 94 96 98 00 Markka deposits Total funding Latest observation Jan 2000
Chart 37. BANK LENDING TO THE PUBLIC 12-month change, % 40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20 90 92 94 96 98 00 Markka lending Total lending
Latest observation Jan 2000 27
Chart 38. OUTSTANDING BANK CREDIT
Bill.FIM 450
400
350
300
250
200
150 89 91 93 95 97 99 Markka-denominated Markka- and foreign currency -denominated Latest observation Jan 2000 28 Chart 39. HEX, HELSINKI EXCHANGES Share indices by sector Hex-index 28.12.1990 = 1000 18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 All-share index Banks and finance index Forest industries Metal industries Latest observation Feb 2000
Chart 40. HEX HELSINKI EXCHANGES Share turnover EUR billion 25
20
15
10
5
0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Latest observation Feb 2000 29
Chart 41. HEX, HELSINKI EXCHANGES Market Value EUR billion % 400 140
350 120
300 100 250 80 200 60 150 40 100
50 20
0 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Market value of listed Market value of listed companies, EUR billion companies, per cent of GDP
Latest observation year 99 year 98
Chart 42. GOVERNMENT BENCHMARK BONDS EUR billion 45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Trades between Customers' Stock of benchmark primary dealers (purchases) trades bonds outstanding
Latest observation Feb 2000 30
Chart 43. STOCK OF BONDS OUTSTANDING IN FINLAND EUR billion 60
50
40
30
20
10
0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Public sector Financial institutions Corporations Latest observation Jan 2000
Chart 44. FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENTS IN FINLAND EUR billion 5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Finnish bonds and money market papers, net purchases Finnish shares, net purchases Latest observation Jan 2000 31
TABLE 5
Key figures for the Finnish deposit banks, billions of FIM*
All deposit banks 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996* 1997* 1998* 1999*
Income from financial operations 10.7 13.0 13.7 12.4 11.0 11.7 13.5 13.5 Other income 9.5 9.7 8.6 8.2 10.2 10.2 8.4 8.2 Total income 20.2 22.7 22.3 20.6 21.2 21.9 21.9 21.7 Expenses 14.9 15.3 16.4 15.5 12.8 12.0 11.4 11.5 - pensionfund surplus refunded 1.2 1.5 0.6 Depreciation 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.7 2.1 2.5 1.3 1.2 Profit before credit and guarantee losse 3.4 5.5 4.4 3.4 7.5 8.9 9.2 9.0 Credit and guarantee losses 14.0 14.7 11.2 6.2 3.7 2.4 1.8 0.5 Profit before extraordinary items, appropriations and taxes -10.6 -9.2 -6.8 -2.8 3.8 6.5 7.3 8.5
Total assets 688.9 726.8 667.8 616.6 578.2 608.4 643.4 701.0 Non-performing assets, net 35.9 25.4 19.6 12.3 8.3 5.5 4.8 Capital adequacy, % 10.7 10.7 11.7 12.0 11.4 11.6 11.5 11.7
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Jan 2000
Markka deposits of the public 264.6 268.8 275.4 291.4 283.7 291.1 304.7 323.2 327.4 - 12-month percentage change -0.5 1.6 2.5 5.8 -2.7 2.6 4.6 6.1 7.0 Markka lending to the public 274.4 269.8 264.7 258.0 265.0 275.7 309.1 353.1 354.0 - 12-month percentage change -4.9 -1.7 -1.9 -2.5 2.7 4.0 12.1 14.2 11.0 Lending to the public (total) 373.2 339.6 311.8 291.5 289.1 292.0 326.8 361.6 362.4 - 12-month percentage change -6.5 -9.0 -8.2 -6.5 -0.7 1.0 11.9 10.6 10.3
* groups consolidated
* For 1996 and 1997, the figures for the new cooperative banks group are used, previously separate figures for the OKO group and cooperative banks * For 1998, the figures of Merita Pankki Oyj are used, previously figures for the Merita Oyj