12 2008 Election Preview Tuesday, november 4, 2008 Tuesday, november 4, 2008 politico 2008 Election Preview 13

8-8:59 p.m. Connecticut’s 4th District Pennsylvania’s 12th District Extinction alert! The last House Republican What is happening standing in New England, Rep. Christo- More states close their polls at 8 or Since winning his seat in 1974, only once has Demo- cratic Rep. John P. Murtha dipped below 60 percent pher Shays, is yet again under siege and 8:30 p.m. than at any other time on in a tossup race. This time, his Democratic Election Night. By 8:30 Eastern, the in his reelection bids. But describing constituents as presidential election narrative will racists or rednecks, as Murtha recently did, does not opponent is Jim Himes, a former vice presi- begin to take shape and all of enhance reelection prospects. As a result, Murtha has a dent at Goldman Sachs. (the state is divided into two differ- fight on his hands. ent time zones) will have weighed in. John Shinkle — Politico In addition to Florida, several other key states will finish voting at 8, including Missouri, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

Maryland’s 1st District After knocking off moderate Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in the GOP primary, conservative state Sen. thought he could coast to victory in the heavily Republican 1st. But the conservative legislator from the suburbs finds himself in a tight race against Democrat . New Jersey’s 7th District Republican state Sen. Leonard Lance is run- Illinois’ 10th District Florida’s 16th District ning competitively against Democratic state Sen. GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, a leading moder- Two years after Republican Rep. Mark ate, is fighting strong currents in his bid Linda Stender despite be- Alabama’s 5th District Foley disgraced this district with his sex ing significantly outspent. In a Huntsville-based district that has never for a fifth term. He represents a suburban scandal, his successor, Democratic Rep. district that is trending Democratic, and Republicans have effec- elected a Republican to Congress, the GOP actu- , has done the same. Few tively tagged Stender as a ally has a shot this year with Democratic Rep. he faces a well-funded challenger in a think Mahoney can recover, making this presidential year in which his home-state tax-and-spend liberal, and Bud Cramer’s retirement. one of the GOP’s best chances for a pickup. Lance has benefited from senator is heading the Democratic ticket. AP Photos It doesn’t get much worse than that. his moderate reputation in the Legislature.

Connecticut New Okla. Alabama Florida Illinois Mississippi Missouri New PenNsylvania Electoral Votes: 7 2004 Results Electoral Votes: 7 Electoral Votes: 9 Electoral Votes: 27 Electoral Votes: 21 Electoral Votes: 6 Electoral Votes: 11 Electoral Votes: 21 2007 Population: 3,502,309 Other Jersey 2007 Population: 4,627,851 2007 Population: 18,251,243 2007 Population: 12,852,548 2007 Population: 2,918,785 2007 Population: 5,878,415 Hampshire 2007 Population: 12,432,792 2007 Pop.: 3,617,316 Electoral Votes: 4 2007 Pop.: 1,315,828 Demographics 2% Electoral Votes: 15 2007 Pop.: 8,685,920 Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics Races Demographics 77.5% 9.4% Kerry Bush White Hispanic To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch To Watch 54% 44% Demographics Demographics 70.3% 65.4% 67.8% The surpris- 60.7% 83.8% Two New 95.1% Republicans have 84.1% 8.7% 2.4% 2% White Florida is teeming White White White White White White with vulnerable ingly competi- Hampshire po- some unlikely op- Black Asian Other 66% 74.1% 25.9% 14.2% 14.9% 36.2% 11.2% 0.7% 9.8% White White members from tive Senate race litical titans will portunities here. Black both parties, but Black Black pits the state’s Black Black clash on Elec- Black The marquee Black 13% 7.5% 1.7% Democrat Tim Ma- 16.8% 12.3% newly appointed 1.4% 2.1% tion Night in a 1.7% matchup is in 3.2% Delaware Black Black Hispanic honey stands out. Hispanic Hispanic Republican sena- Hispanic Hispanic rematch of their Hispanic northeast Penn- Hispanic 13.3% 5.2% ap ap ap Electoral Votes: 3 2004 Results 0.7% After admitting to 1.6% 3.4% tor, Roger Wicker, 0.6% 1.1% 2002 Senate 1.3% sylvania, where 1.8% Hispanic Hispanic Bright paying $121,000 to Halvorson against former Graves race: first-term 12-term Demo- 2007 Population: 864,764 Asian Asian Asian Asian Asian Asian Asian Other 5.7% 1.3% cover up an affair Democratic Gov. GOP Sen. John crat Paul E. Kan- 1% Montgomery 2.2% 2% In Illinois’ 10th 1.4% Ronnie Musgrove. 1.1% 1.9% Sununu and for- 1.2% jorski is facing 1.1% Demographics Asian Asian with his mistress, Republican Con- Mayor Bobby Other he looks like politi- Other District, GOP Other ’s Other Other mer Democratic Other Hazleton Mayor Other 72.5% 4.8% 2% 12% gressman Sam Kerry Bush Bright has run as Median Household cal mincemeat. On Median Household Rep. Mark Median Household candidacy should Median Household Graves looks Median Household Gov. Jeanne Median Household Lou Barletta. Median Household White Hispanic Other Other Kirk is hoping guarantee high Shaheen. 53% 46% a social conserva- Income: the GOP side, Rep. Income: Income: Income: well-positioned Income: Income: Another vulner- Income: 18.9% 2.1% 1.7% 2004 Results 2004 Results tive in the heavily $38,783 ’s past $45,495 his moderate $52,006 African-American $34,473 to hold his 6th $42,841 A Sununu vic- $59,683 able Democrat is $46,259 Black Asian Other Other conservative open ties to jailed lobby- record can help turnout, a boost District seat, tory would give John P. Murtha. 1% 2nd District and Unemployment: ist Unemployment: him survive Unemployment: to Musgrove. But Unemployment: despite early Unemployment: Republicans an Unemployment: Rep. Christo- Unemployment: distanced himself 5.3% 6.1%* have made him 6.1%* 6.6% the pro-Obama 6.1%* Wicker appears 6.1%* 7.8% Democratic 6.1%* 6.4% early morale 4.1% 6.1%* pher P. Carney 5.7% 6.1%* to have the late Bush Kerry from Barack the underdog. Rep. tide expected in hopes of pick- boost and has long been Kerry Bush *National average *National average *National average momentum in the *National average *National average *National average *National average Maine 34% Obama. Polls show is at risk this suburban ing him off. could portend a considered one of 53% 46% 66% him running com- 2004 Turnout Rate: of losing his seat 2004 Turnout Rate: Chicago seat. 2004 Turnout Rate: race. Mississippi 2004 Turnout Rate: 2004 Turnout Rate: better-than-ex- 2004 Turnout Rate: the most vulner- 2004 Turnout Rate: Electoral Votes: 4 2004 Results was the scene of Former Kansas petitively against to attorney Alan Democrats City Mayor Kay pected national able freshman 2007 Population: 1,317,207 55.2% 56.5% 55.6% the Democrats’ 53.5% 62.9% GOP perfor- 68.3% 60.5% Other GOP state Sen. Jay Grayson. Demo- are also well- Barnes was once Democrats, but 1% Love, who was slow Pop. Breakdown crats are making a Pop. Breakdown positioned to Pop. Breakdown biggest victory so Pop. Breakdown Pop. Breakdown mance. Pop. Breakdown polls show him Pop. Breakdown Demographics far this year: a spe- a leading Demo- to recover from a 55.4% play for the Cuban- 89.3% pick up the 87.8% 48.8% cratic recruit, 69.4% In the 1st Dis- 59.2% in decent shape 77% 96.5% 11th District cial election upset Kerry Bush tough primary. In Urban American vote, Urban Urban Urban but a Graves Urban trict, Rep. Carol Urban against Republi- Urban White Tenn. Ark. the open 5th Dis- seat of retiring by Democrat Tra- Shea-Porter which has jeopar- campaign ad can businessman 54% 45% Electoral Votes: 11 Electoral Votes: 6 trict, Democratic 44.6% 10.7% GOP Rep. Jerry 12.2% vis Childers in the 51.2% 30.6% has a chance 40.8% 23% 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 1.5% dized the brothers portraying Chris Hackett. 2007 Pop.: 6,156,719 2007 Pop.: 2,834,797 state Sen. Parker Rural Rural Weller. State Rural 1st District seat Rural Rural to prove her Rural And Rep. Jason Rural Black Hispanic Asian Other Diaz-Balart, Barnes as an Griffith began as neither of whom Senate Majority vacated by Wicker. shocking 2006 Altmire looks the favorite to hold has ever faced a Key Fact Leader Debbie While Childers’ elite San Fran- Key Fact victory over like a sure bet to Demographics Demographics cisco liberal retiring Democratic Key Fact credible chal- With 16 Repub- Halvorson Key Fact special election Polls show GOP then-GOP Rep. win his rematch Key Fact struck a chord 79.2% 78.6% Rep. Bud Cramer’s If Republicans lenge. Rep. Lincoln licans, Florida has the edge Democratic Rep. victory over Greg Rep. Kenny Jeb Bradley against former More Democratic- Davis attracted Key Fact in this largely Hulshof, who wasn’t a fluke. Electoral Votes: 10 White White seat. But Republi- capture both Diaz-Balart holds currently has over Republi- Bill Foster, who GOP Rep. Melissa held seats are 2004 Results can Wayne Parker open House seats, can concrete nationwide atten- Gregg Harper, the rural district. In vacated his 9th She’s facing competitive in Bush 16.3% 15.6% a narrow lead over the third-largest won former House Hart. Rep. Phil 2007 Population: 5,618,344 Other has gained traction they’ll have a 6-to-1 former Hialeah­ company owner tion, the rematch Rankin County the neighboring District seat to run Bradley again English is the Pennsylvania xx% Black Black GOP delegation in Speaker Dennis 1% after accusing Grif- advantage in the Mayor Raul Mar- the House, after Marty Ozinga, Hastert’s Repub- looks to be anti- GOP chairman, 9th, GOP state for governor, badly in a rematch; a Key Fact most endangered than anywhere Demographics 2.2% 3.2% fith of past medical Alabama congres- tinez, while Rep. California and though she’s got lican-leaning seat climactic. With is expected to tourism director trailing Democratic second straight Bush twice carried Republican in else this year. In Hispanic Hispanic the advantages of Blaine Luetke- Attorney General 62.1% 4.3% Kerry Bush malpractice and sional delegation. Mario Diaz-Balart Texas. Mahoney one significant in an April special win easily in the victory could Shea-Porter’s 1st the delegation. 2006, the opposite White Hispanic 1% 0.7% after airing an ad The sole remaining faces a challenge is the only one of liability: her election upset even a few months open 3rd District meyer is running Jay Nixon. The win- convince District, winning Polls show him at was true — four 56% 43% of incumbency, race to succeed evenly with state ner will succeed 27.7% 4.0% 2.1% Asian Asian claiming Griffith Democrat will be from , the state’s nine connection victory, is rated by doubters she’ll 51 percent to 49 risk of losing his Republican recently made Artur Davis of the the Miami-Dade to unpopu- Childers is favored retiring Repub- Rep. Judy Baker, one-term GOP Gov. be staying in percent in 2004 and Erie-area seat to incumbents lost Black Asian Other 1.3% 1.9% House Democrats the Cook Political unpatriotic com- Birmingham-based County Democrat- whose seat is lar Gov. Rod Report as likely to to win comfort- lican Rep. Chip a former health Matt Blunt, the son Congress for a 49 percent to 46 Democrat Kathy their seats in Other Other ments. 7th District. ic Party chairman. endangered. Blagojevich. hold the seat. ably this time. Pickering. care executive. of Rep. Roy Blunt. while. percent in 2000. Dahlkemper. Pennsylvania. 2004 Results 2004 Results Massachusetts 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact 2004 Results Key Fact Electoral Votes: 12 2004 Results Other Other President Bush In 2004, Bush was Other Cook County In 2004, exit polls Missouri has New Hamp- A Republican 1% Other Other Other Other Other 2007 Population: 6,449,755 Other 1% won 69 percent 1% declared the winner 1% provided an showed whites voted for the 1% shire is the presidential 1% of the male vote at 11:39 p.m. by ABC 842,000-vote 1% voted 85 percent to 1% eventual winner only state that 1% nominee hasn’t Demographics Kerry Kerry Bush Kerry Bush Bush and 57 percent of Kerry Bush but wasn’t declared Kerry Bush margin of victory Kerry Bush 14 percent for Bush, in every presi- Bush voted for Bush Kerry Bush carried Pennsyl- 81.9% Bush Kerry Bush Kerry Kerry 43% 57% 45% 54% 37% 62% the female vote in 47% 52% the state’s winner 55% 44% for — 40% 59% and blacks voted dential election in 2000 and 51% 48% vania since 1988. White 37% 2004. by NBC and MSNBC the biggest of any 90 percent to 10 46% 53% but one since 50% 49% Kerry in 2004. 5% 6.8% 3.7% 2.6% 62% until 12:24 a.m. county in 2004. percent for Kerry. 1904. Black Hispanic Asian Other SourceS: The Almanac of American Politics, 2008; bureau of labor statistics; u.s. census bureau Note: Due to rounding, not all demographics total 100 percent. Election results figures were also rounded, and for some states, “Other” category includes candidates such as Ralph Nader and Michael Badnarik.