Royal Danish Embassy T. Kosciuskos 36, LT-01100 Vilnius Tel: +370 (5) 264 8768 Mob: +370 6995 7760 The Defence Attaché To Fax: +370 (5) 231 2300 , Latvia & Lithuania

Newsletter for the Baltics Week 6 2018

The following information is gathered from usually reliable and open sources, mainly from the Baltic News Service (BNS), respective defence ministries press releases and websites as well as various newspapers, etc.

Table of contents THE BALTICS AND RUSSIA ...... 3 Russia stationing Iskander for permanent presence in Kaliningrad – Lithuanian defmin ...... 3 LITHUANIA ...... 4 Georgian chief of general staff visits Lithuania ...... 4 Lithuanian PM says army modernization now more important than universal conscription .... 4 EU grants €17 million for Lithuania-Russia border projects ...... 4 LATVIA ...... 5 Latvia to buy anti-tank missiles for €108 million ...... 5 Russian military transport aircraft spotted near Latvian border ...... 5 Latvian citizen suspected of spying for Russia was gathering information about military objects ...... 5 Latvian army to receive 62 tactical vehicles with help from U.S. aid ...... 6 Maizitis warns of heightened activity by Russian intelligence services ahead of Saeima elections ...... 6 Strengthening energy security must remain Latvia’s priority ...... 6 Two Russian naval ships detected near Latvian border ...... 7 ESTONIA ...... 7 Estonian Defence Minister discusses cyber defence cooperation with Georgian counterpart . 7 to rehearse winter warfare with allies ...... 8 Estonian border guard catches 2 Russian citizens who violated border on Lake Peipsi ...... 8 Land border between Estonia, Russia fully marked ...... 8 Nationalist caucus of IRL wants EU to conclude partnership treaty with NATO ...... 9

2

THE BALTICS AND RUSSIA

Russia stationing Iskander for permanent presence in Kaliningrad – Lithuanian defmin

On 5 February, Lithuania’s Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis stated that Russia stationed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region, and intends to leave them there permanently. Karoblis said Russia used to bring the missile complex to the region wedged between Lithuania and Poland for military drills only, however, “this time the situation is different – it is permanent stationing with all the necessary infrastructure in place.” Lithuania’s intelligence agencies stated that the placement of Iskander systems in Kaliningrad would potentially be more dangerous for Lithuania due to its capacity to hinder Allied actions in the region, while the complex is not needed to target Lithuania’s territory, as theoretically they could be taken down by the existing capacities. Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite stated “This is not just a threat to Lithuania but a half of all European countries.” In response to the permanent stationing of Iskander in Kaliningrad, NATO should start preparations for neutralization of the capacities in the Russian region aimed at restricting the arrival of NATO Allies in the Baltic States in case of a conflict. Grybauskaite said the Alliance should make faster decisions, update contingency plans for the Baltic States, facilitate the movement of military troops in the region and ensure air defence. Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis, further elaborated, “The deployment of the missile complex in the Kaliningrad region confirms once again that air defence issues must become a priority at this stage.” According to Latvian Defence Ministry, “The National Armed Forces therefore continue to develop their missile defence systems, and this only shows that both individually and together with their NATO allies Latvia has to keep making serious investments in modern missile defence.” NATO says that the deployment of the battalions in the three Baltic countries and Poland is a response to Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine and its military build-up in the region. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s Press Secretary stated that Russia has a sovereign right to deploy Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad Oblast. Vladimir Shamanov, Chairman of the Defence Committee of the Russian State Duma stated the deployment was a response to the deployment of military facilities on the other side of the border.

3

LITHUANIA

Georgian chief of general staff visits Lithuania

On 8 February, Major General Vladimer Chachibaia, the Chief of General Staff of the Georgian Armed Forces started his visit to Lithuania. Chachibaia visited General Jonas Zemaitis from the Military Academy of Lithuania, the NATO Energy Security Center of Excellence and the National Cyber Security Center in Vilnius. Chachibaia met with Lithuania’s Chief of Defence Lieutenant General Jonas Vytautas Zukas to discuss military cooperation and the security situation in the region before paying a visit to the Lithuanian Armed Forces’ Defence Staff and the Special Operations Forces. According to the press release, military cooperation between Lithuania and Georgia mainly focuses on officer training and consultations on strategic communications, cyber defence, logistics, financial management and strategic planning issues. Georgia seeks to become a member of the and of NATO, but their chances look slim. Russia recognized the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states, after a brief war with Georgia in 2008. Thousands of Russian troops are stationed on a permanent basis in military bases in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are considered as occupied territories of Georgia by the international community.

Lithuanian PM says army modernization now more important than universal conscription

On 7 February, Lithuanian Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis stated that the modernization of the Armed Forces is currently more important that universal military conscription, adding that a mandatory enlistment of all young men could be considered after 2020. The Defence Ministry estimates in the study that Lithuania would need around €400 million to introduce universal male conscription and a total of approximately €1.5 billion if young women were to be drafted as well. Universal male conscription would include around 6,300 young men annually, while conscription of both men and women would raise that number to around 12,300 people. According to the Defence Ministry, the earliest date for universal male conscription could be 2024 if €105 million were provided for this purpose annually. Both men and women could be drafted starting in 2026 if €280 million were provided yearly. In 2015, Lithuania reintroduced partial military conscription.

EU grants €17 million for Lithuania-Russia border projects

On 5 February, the European Union is continuing cooperation with Russia at the country’s external borders, planning to grant over €17 million for Lithuania-Russia projects. The sum is envisaged in the Lithuania-Russia cross-border cooperation program signed between the EU and Russia in January. The EU money will be earmarked from the community’s 2014-2020 budget. Russia will grant €8.5 million for the program. The money will go towards management

4

of cultural, educational and other objects in the border region, furthermore, a deal has been reached on recovery work. Since 2004, two programs were implemented, however, they were among three countries: Lithuania, Poland and Russia. This time Lithuania and Poland will have separate programs with Russia. Over 14 years, the three-country projects received €178 million in EU support, including €43 million at the Lithuanian border. A total of 218 projects have been implemented at the region at the Russian border.

LATVIA

Latvia to buy anti-tank missiles for €108 million

On 12 February, Defence Minister Raimonds Bergmanis (Greens/Farmers) and EuroSpike executives Gunter Lauer and Arie Lapidot signed an agreement at the Defence Ministry on the purchase of Israeli-made Spike anti-tank missile systems for €108 million. Developing anti-tank capabilities is one of the Latvian defence sector’s priorities, and Spike anti-tank missile systems have been recognized as best suited for the National Armed Forces’ (NAF) needs. The Spike anti-tank missile systems will be added to the NAF’s existing weaponry and bolster the fighting ability of regular NAF units and Home Guard. Spike missiles will be installed also on the CVRT reconnaissance vehicles that have been purchased from the UK. It is planned that the Spike anti-tank missiles will be supplied to Latvia in instalments by 2023.

Russian military transport aircraft spotted near Latvian border

On 8 February, the Latvian National Armed Forces stated the NATO planes policing Baltic airspace detected a An-26 Russian military transport aircraft close to the Latvian border.

Latvian citizen suspected of spying for Russia was gathering information about military objects

On 7 February, the Security Police announced that the Latvian citizen recently detained by the Security Police on suspicion of spying for Russia was gathering information about National Armed Forces (NAF) objects, as well as the situation on the border area with Russia. This information has been obtained by the Security Police in their investigation into this criminal process. The Security Police informed that the investigation into this matter continues, but will

5

not release any more detailed information in the interests of the investigation. Speaking about spying threats in general, Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis (Unity) previously said that the intelligence risks to Latvia from foreign special services has never been low but has increased in the last two years due to the overall security situation in the Baltic States. He said that deployment of the NATO eFP Battle Group to Latvia had piqued the interest of foreign special services to learn the details about the allied forces.

Latvian army to receive 62 tactical vehicles with help from U.S. aid

On 6 February, the Latvian Defence Ministry announced that the Latvian National Armed Forces will get 62 tactical vehicles under the foreign military aid program of the United States government. The Latvian army will get Polaris MRZR-2, MRZR-4 and MV850 vehicles made by Polaris Government & Defence Company, as well as several vehicles equipped with mobile surveillance systems. It is planned that the first vehicles will arrive in Latvia in May of this year and further deliveries will be made until the second quarter of 2019. The Polaris tactical vehicles will enhance the tactical mobility capacity of the Latvian National Armed Forces. The vehicles will be used by the regular army units as well as the Latvian Home Guard. The U.S. has been providing assistance to Latvia under various military aid programs for more than 20 years, delivering equipment crucial for development of the Latvian National Armed Forces, including the communications equipment, night vision devices and vehicles.

Maizitis warns of heightened activity by Russian intelligence services ahead of Saeima elections

On 4 February, Constitutional Protection Bureau Chief Janis Maizitis warned of risks associated with heightened activity by Russian intelligence services ahead of this year’s Saeima (Latvian Parliament) elections. Maizitis stated that one of the tasks of foreign intelligence services is to monitor political processes. “This is task of all foreign intelligence services, especially from those countries which are not as friendly towards us,” he admitted. The head of the Constitutional Protection Bureau said that elections are the culmination of politics, where much is determined.

Strengthening energy security must remain Latvia’s priority

On 2 February, Lolita Cigane (For!/Unity), the chairwoman of the parliamentary committee on European affairs stated that Latvia has taken serious steps towards diversification of its energy supply. Furthermore, Cigane states strengthening energy security must remain a priority for Latvia also in the future. Cigane said that progress had been made regarding synchronisation of the Baltic power grids with the power grids in Europe, but the efforts should continue.

6

Connectivity of the Baltic power grids with the European power grids had increased from four percent to twenty-four percent in recent years.

Two Russian naval ships detected near Latvian border

On 2 February, the Latvian National Armed Forces stated that a Goryn-class naval tug, MB-119, and a Kastahn-class submarine support ship, Aleksandr Pushkin, were detected in Latvia’s exclusive economic zone ten nautical miles from Latvia’s territorial waters.

ESTONIA

Estonian Defence Minister discusses cyber defence cooperation with Georgian counterpart

On 9 February, Estonian Defence Minister Juri Luik met with his Georgian counterpart Levan Izoria on 8 February, and had the chance to visit Georgia’s cyber defence bureau. The Defence Ministers discussed the security situation in the Black Sea region, broad bilateral cooperation in the field of cyber security, international operations and cooperation in the framework of NATO partnership. The Ministers also signed the 2018 bilateral defence cooperation plan. Luik said that bilateral defence cooperation between the two countries is strong, as they take part in each other’s military exercises, Estonia supports the training of Georgian defence personnel, and cooperation in the field of cyber defence is becoming increasingly stronger. He stressed Estonia’s unwavering support to Georgia’s territorial integrity and acknowledged the state’s achievements in carrying out reforms in the field of defence. Luik added that Estonia continues to support Georgia’s broad-based security sector reform.

7

Scouts Battalion to rehearse winter warfare with allies

5 February news report. Members of the , Kaitseliit (Defence League) volunteers and NATO allies are to rehearse warfare under winter conditions during the winter field training exercise Winter Cam 2018. Scouts Battalion troops and their vehicles started moving to the practice area from on 5 February. The Scouts Battalion will use the Pasi armored personnel carriers and the CV9035 infantry fighting vehicles. The CV9035 vehicles will also be used by the Danish troops participating in the exercise as part of the NATO allied battle group. The British troops will use their own heavy equipment, including the Challenger tanks. Those participating in the exercise include active servicemen and conscripts from the Scouts Battalion, British and Danish allies serving as part of the NATO battle group and Kaitseliit volunteers from the Sakala district. The Winter Camp is to last until 14 February.

Estonian border guard catches 2 Russian citizens who violated border on Lake Peipsi

5 February news report. Estonian border guard caught two Russian citizens who illegally crossed the Estonian-Russian border on Lake Peipsi. Officials of the Vasknarva border patrol station noticed on 3 February that the temporary control line on Lake Peipsi was crossed from Russia to Estonia. The border guard took the two citizens of the Russian Federation, one born in 1974 and the other in 1981, to the Vasknarva base for further information. Spokespeople for the East prefecture said that the violators were issued a fine and were handed over to the border representatives of the Russian Federation.

Land border between Estonia, Russia fully marked

5 February news report. The marking of Estonia’s land border with Russia was fully completed by the end of last year. The locations of all border posts along the border section in southeastern Estonia have been marked, and by the end of 2017, all 567 posts were installed. The locations of 144 border posts on the bank of the Narva River, and on the small islands, have been pre-marked and altogether 39 border posts have been installed. It was announced on 1 February that according to calculations made by the Police and Border Guard Board, the construction of Estonia’s eastern border could cost 2.5 times more than initially planned and the Interior Ministry has launched an audit to find out why the construction is to cost €118 million

8

more than the initial estimate. According to Director General of the Police and Border Guard Board Elmar Vaher, the project became more expensive as a result of unexpectedly harsh natural conditions on the border, like marshy lands, high ground water, the need for new access roads and power lines, transferring new land, which was not considered in such detail when forecasting a preliminary indicative price. Vaher argues that the problem could be solved by dropping certain elements of the border, like air boundary control. The PPA has sent its proposals to The Interior Ministry that will decide on what course to take in one week.

Nationalist caucus of IRL wants EU to conclude partnership treaty with NATO

On 3 February, the nationalist caucus in the Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) party in Estonia believes that in order to ensure their own security, the European Union must review the underlying principles of their security policy and enter into a partnership with NATO. In a statement, the nationalist caucus said that building a defence capability of its own parallel to that of NATO is not a sustainable solution for the EU economically because it would split the military and economic resources of the member states. Such a partnership should contain an agreement on three things; the EU will direct 5 percent of its budget into the budget of NATO for defence expenditures, NATO will guarantee the security of EU member states, and it will be possible for the EU upon agreement with NATO to use the resources of the alliance, manpower and combat equipment. Tarmo Kruusimae, member of parliament, who was re-elected as chairman of the nationalist caucus of IRL, said in his speech that Estonia must again legalize the use of landmines in its territory by leaving the Ottawa treaty. Kruusimae described Estonia’s accession to the convention banning anti-personnel mines in 2004 as unjustified. According to Kruusimae, the use of anti-personnel mines bars the rapid advance of infantry and motorized combat units, and Estonia should follow the example of Finland, which has adopted the use of landmines as a mainstay of its national defence. Kruusimae also pointed out, that neither the United States nor Russia have joined the Ottawa convention.

Newsletter was prepared by Julie Fodgaard Kristensen and Fridrikur Henriksen (interns, Vilnius), Frederik Isberg Johansen (intern, ), Niels Christian Stubbe (intern, Riga)

9