Chacaltaya Glacier Geographical Position: 16º21’S-68º07’W Altitude Range: 4700-5396 M Catchment Area: 0.52 Km2 Glacier Area in 2007: 0.003 Km2 General Exposure: South

Climate change, glacier retreat and water resources availability in high mountain cities: case of Bolivia

Edson RAMIREZ Ph.D.

Institut of Hydraulics and Hydrology, San Andrés University (IHH-UMSA) La Paz - Bolivia Photo: E.Ramirez © Glaciers and Altitude Water Resources Climate and Environmental Indicators  The evolution of water resources  The variability of the climate – hydrosphere – cryosphere in high altitude regions

Past Present Future 1000 years Instrumental data Tropical Glaciers distribution in the world

5% of the world’s mountain glaciers 99% are concentrated in the Andes 70% in Perú, 20% in Bolivia, 10% in the rest Location of the “Cordillera Real” BOLIVIA

Amazon

Andes Water glaciers uses

Tuni-Condoriri

Hydropower Lake Titicaca Zongo

Water Supply Hydropower

Irrigation La Paz

El Alto Mururata

These glaciers were selected mainly because of the influence of ice melting on water resources for human consumption and hydropower generation for the city of La Paz and El Alto. Tropical glaciers respond to:

- Precipitation (Snow/Rainfall) - Temperature - Humidity - Cloudiness - Solar Radiation - “El Niño” Climatic Events. Dynamics of a glacier Glacier fluctuation since the Litle Ice Age

Glacier actuel

1912±9 AD

1871±9 AD

1808±10 AD 1734±12 AD

1686±14 AD

Source: Charquini glacier (Bolivia) Rabatel et al. 2005 (IRD) 160 140 ¿Why the Bolivian glaciers are sensitive? 120

100

80 60 Rainfall Precipitación (mm) Precipitación 40 Precipitation

0 DIC JUL JUL ENE FEB JUN ENE FEB JUN SEP ABR ABR OCT MAY MAY NOV MAR AGO MAR AGO Melting Radiacion Solar Incidente a 5150m (ORE), maxima diaria, 2003-2004

1800 SWIncMax(cor) Polinómica (SWIncMax(cor)) 1600

1400

1200

1000

Radiacion Solar Max Inc 800

600

400 17/8/03 6/10/03 25/11/03 14/1/04 4/3/04 23/4/04 12/6/04 1/8/04 20/9/04

Radiation

Storage During the summer (Rainy season)

Fotos: E. Ramirez © In the Past In the Past: Andean Ice Cores for climate reconstruction IN THE LAST CENTURY

(Hoffmann, Ramirez et. al. 2003, Geophysical Research Letters)

In the Present

Foto:E.Ramirez ©

Aerial photogrammetric missions since 1956 to 2009

Photogrammetric mission in 2009

Bolivian Air Force & IHH-UMSA Zongo cumulative mass balance reconstruction since 1956

Recent studies shows the advantage of digital photogrammetric tecniques in order to reconstruct glaciological mass balance.

The glaciological mass balances were calculated using yearly field measurements and adjusted according to photogrammetric data.

Source: Soruco 2009 , Annals of Glaciology Advanced Land Observation Satellite (ALOS) JAXA - RESTEC

Zongo Glacier

ELA: 5500 m

Contacts in RESTEC: Dr. Makoto ONO Dr. Nobuhiro TOMIYAMA COMBINING NEW TECHNOLOGIES: ALOS – DGPS - LIDAR

DGPS – Thales Z-Max 3D – Laser scanner

Zongo glacier: Bolivia Source: IHH CASES OF STUDY IN BOLIVIA:

ZONGO GLACIER (HUAYNA POTOSI) & CHACALTAYA

6100 m

5300 m

Beginning of the Glacier Monitoring Program in Bolivia: 1991 1975

Huayna Potosí

Chacaltaya

Huayna Potosí

Chacaltaya

Huayna Potosí

Chacaltaya

Huayna Potosí

Chacaltaya

2005

Photos: B.Francou (IRD)© E.Ramirez (IHH-UMSA) ©

0 0

-200 -50000 2009

-400 -100000

-600 -150000 antizana 15A antizana15b -800 yanamarey -200000 broggi -1000 pastoruri -250000 uruashraju Cajap

-1200 -300000 Cumulative area evolution (m²)

Cumulative length evolution (m) evolution length Cumulative Zongo (area) Charquini-S (area) -1400 -350000 Chacaltaya (area)

-1600 -400000 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Ramirez et. al 2001; Journal of Glaciology Foto: E. Ramírez © MASS BALANCE DE FOR CHACALTAYAFOR DEMASS BALANCE GLACIER1991 SINCE

Erupción del Pinatubo Source: IRD Source: -IHH Water resources in La Paz

The city of La Paz, administrative capital of Bolivia, is located at 3600 m a.s.l. with a population of one million inhabitants. An increasing migratory flow from the countryside has formed the city of “El Alto” (3800 m a.s.l.), also about one million inhabitants, that borders La Paz.

Photo: P. Ginot Tuni-Condoriri Huayna Potosi

Tuni

Chacaltaya

Milluni

Laderas Este y Oeste de Ciudad de La ciudad de La Paz El Alto

(Fuente: E. Ramirez) Pérdida de Areas Cuenca Condoriri CONDORIRI

3,000

y = -1E-07x3 + 0,0004x2 - 0,3587x 2,500 R2 = 0,9782

2,000

1,500

1,000 Area (km2)

0,500

0,000

-0,500 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Año 2045

Pérdida de Areas Cuenca Tuni TUNI 1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

3 2 0,800 y = -2E-07x + 0,0007x - 0,6464x R2 = 0,9618 0,600 Area (km2) 0,400

0,200

0,000

Glacier surface losses for the period -0,200 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1956 – 2006 Año 2025 Condoriri: 44%, Tuni: 55% Source: IHH-UMSA, IRD

2009

Demanda vs Oferta de Cuenca

PROYECCIÓN

DemandDemanda

The analysis of the water demands and supplies for “El Alto” shows a break in 2009, where the demand will surpass the water supply. (Ramirez & Olmos, 2006) Mapa Fuente: Aguas del Illimani ¿What about the future?

Photo: E.Ramirez Future climate in a world with double the preindustrial carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, according to general circulation models

!!!!! Uncertainty in precipitation prediction !!!!

Bradley et al. SCIENCE Vol (312) 23 Junio 2006 The process of adaptation to the impacts of the climatic change will depend besides the water resources management

Water availability Uses of Water

- Precipitation - Efficient use of water - Melting (Glacier)

(Vulnerable to climatic change) (Vulnerable to the inefficient use of the water)

At the present the city of “El Alto” loses in the water supply system even of 50%. References: Francou, B., Ramirez, E., Cáceres, B., Mendoza, J., Glacier Evolution in the Tropical Andes during the Last Decades of the 20th Century: Chacaltaya, Bolivia, and Antizana, Ecuador, AMBIO a Journal of the human environment, 29 (7) 416-422, 2000.

Ramirez, E., Francou, B., Ribstein, P., Descloitres, R., Guérin, R., Mendoza, J., Gallaire, R., Pouyaud, B., Jordan, E., Small-sized glaciers disappearing in the Tropical Andes, A case study in Bolivia : The Chacaltaya Glacier, 16°S, Journal of Glaciology, 47, 187- 194, 2001.

Hoffmann, G., E. Ramirez, J.D. Taupin, B. Francou, P. Ribstein, R. Delmas, H. Dürr, R. Gallaire, J. Simões, U. Schotterer, M. Stievenard, and M. Werner, Coherent isotope history of Andean ice cores over the last century, Geophysical Research Letters, 30 (4), 1179-1182, 2003.

Ramirez, E., G. Hoffmann, J.D. Taupin, B. Francou, P. Ribstein,N.Caillon, F.A. Ferron, A. Landais, J.R. Petit, B. Pouyaud, U. Schotterer, J.C. Simoes, and M. Stievenard, A new Andean deep ice core from the Illimani (6350 m), Bolivia, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 212 (3-4), 337-350, 2003.

Ramirez, E., B. Francou, C. Olmos, A. Román, C. Ramallo, P. Garreta, T. Berger, F. Ledezma, A. Soruco and R. Fuertes (2007). Deshielo de la Cuenca del Tuni-Condoriri y su Impacto sobre los Recursos hídricos de las ciudades de La Paz y El Alto. La Paz, (Final Report) Ministry of Develpment, Vice-Miniestry of Planificationl : 150. Thank you very much for your attention

Photo: E.Ramirez