TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
Charles Edel February 2018 The Alliance 21 Program is a multi-year research initiative that examines the historically strong Australia-United States relationship and works to address the challenges and opportunities ahead as the alliance evolves in a changing Asia. Based within the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, the Program was launched by the Prime Minister of Australia in 2011 as a public-private partnership to develop new insights and policy ideas.
The Australian Government and corporate partners Boral, Dow, News Corp Australia, and Northrop Grumman Australia support the program’s second phase, which commenced in July 2015 and is focused on the following core research areas: defence and security; resource sustainability; alliance systems in Asia; and trade, investment, and business innovation.
The Alliance 21 Program receives funding support from the following partners. Research conclusions are derived independently and authors represent their own view not those of the United States Studies Centre.
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Reports published by the United States Studies Centre are anonymously peer-reviewed by both internal and external experts. Cover photo: East Room of the White House (Getty) Contents page image: ‘Washington crossing the Delaware’ oil on canvas painted by Emanuel Leutze (Getty) Table of contents
Executive summary and key judgements 01
Introduction 02
Presidential power: A short history 03
The extent, and limit, of presidential power 07
The Trump stress test 11
Implications 17
Conclusion 19
Endnotes 20
About the author 24
This report may be cited as: Charles Edel, “Trump and the US presidency: The past, present and future of America’s highest office,” United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, February 2018. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
Executive summary
While media attention remains fixed on Donald Trump, focusing too intently on the president obscures the profound role played by the institution of the presidency and the stress test it faces. The presidency was constitutionally created to be empowered, but is restrained by the legislative and judicial branches of government. It has accumulated greater powers over time, but institutional and normative checks have remained in place. Five factors determine the outward limits of a president’s power within this constitutional framework: the circumstances in which they came into and occupy office; the president’s political standing and popularity; the degree of friction between the different branches of government and between the states and national government; the president’s ability to control the bureaucracy; and the president himself. How these factors interact determines the shape and the impact of a president’s term.
Key judgements
Donald Trump’s ability to reshape the office, probe the boundaries of American political discourse and transform America’s place in the world will be a product not just of his will, but also of the effectiveness of institutional constraints on presidential power. One year into his presidency, there are signs pointing to both the resilience of the American system and to the corrosive effect Trump’s actions have had on it. Trump, like all previous presidents but perhaps more so than most, will continue to meet bureaucratic friction — some of it endemic to bureaucracies, and some unique to his presidency. Because the president is ultimately less constrained in foreign policy than in domestic affairs, Trump’s presidency will continue to cause international concern by its very unpredictability. Trump’s unpredictable policies have created a credibility gap; the president is no longer seen as having the final word on foreign policy and national security, and is often bypassed.
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Introduction
Today, it seems pretty hard to escape Trump. From his constant tweets, to his repeated transgression of American political and cultural norms of behaviour, to his evident pleasure in provoking and distracting the American public, Trump’s antics seem to dominate every waking moment. In many ways, it is as if Trump, having reached the commanding heights of American politics and global power, has commandeered centre stage in a Shakespearean play, proclaimed that “all the world’s a stage”, and condemned the rest of the world to the role of the audience. And it is with a mixture of fascination, bewilderment and anxiety that the world waits to find out if this play is a history, comedy, or tragedy.
Focusing too intently upon Trump, however, obscures profound issues surrounding the American presidency. Assessing the likelihood of change and making sense of the present requires a broader understanding of the presidency as an institution. There is no way of knowing how long-lasting the effects of Trump’s presidency will be on the office and the norms that have long governed American democracy. In fact, one year in, there are signs that point in both directions — to both the resilience of the American system and to the corrosive effect Trump’s actions have had on it.1 For all the confusion, disruption, and chaos of Donald Trump’s term thus far, he will continue to possess the immense powers of the American presidency, while also being frustrated by its many constraints.
Photo: Former presidents George H. W. Bush, Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter (Getty)
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Presidential power: A short history
From America’s founding in the late 18th century, Constitution afforded the executive branch. Nowhere the framers of the US Constitution imagined the is this more true than in the realm of national security. presidency as simultaneously powerful, constrained, One of the founding fathers, Alexander Hamilton, and a work in progress. These seemingly contradictory argued that as “the circumstances that endanger impulses arose out of the historical experiences of the safety of nations are infinite… no constitutional rejecting monarchy in their war for independence shackles can wisely be imposed on the power to and experiencing disunity and disorder in the period which the care of it is committed. This power ought after independence. When the founding fathers to be coextensive with all the possible combinations drafted a constitution for the United States they did so of such circumstances”.3 The lack of clarity over consciously trying to steer a middle path between the the extent of executive power, however, left other abuses of royal tyranny and the chaos of weak central founders concerned that this ambiguity could be government. In practice, this meant the presidency is abused. According to George Mason, a delegate to the head of the executive branch, but it is a co-equal the 1787 Constitutional Convention and inspiration branch of government with the legislature (Congress) for America’s Bill of Rights, “if strong and extensive and judiciary (federal courts). The president could not powers are vested in the executive and that executive unilaterally enact legislation, interpret the constitution, consists only of one person, the government will of appoint cabinet officials or dictate the government’s course degenerate into monarchy”. budget. Yet the president was still given more power than any other individual in government as the Arguments over the appropriate size, scale, and scope only elected officeholder accountable to the entire of the executive branch, and indeed of the entire federal American populace. The checks and balances inherent government, drove the ratification debate and much to the constitution meant that the office of president of American political history from that point forward. was created to be empowered by the people, but Theodore Roosevelt, who served as president from restrained by the legislative and judicial branches of 1901-1909, posited that unless expressly prohibited government and, like the Constitution itself, capable of by law or the Constitution, the president could “do changing as the times dictated. anything that the needs of the nation demanded”.4 Such a view was as contested in the early 20th As one scholar of the American presidency recently century as it is today. And it points to the necessity observed, “the enduring strength of the office of examining the personalities that have shaped, and 2 comes from its original lack of definition”. This was been shaped by, the presidency. because the Constitution merely sketched the roles and functions of the presidency, leaving open the Successive presidents redefined the presidency — interpretation of its powers. Most presidents have its job description, its role, and its powers. America’s nonetheless held an expansive view of the power the first president, George Washington, set precedents
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with everything he did. His aim was national stability, (1933-1945) not only reimagined the social contract and he attempted to set the government’s general with the creation of the modern welfare state, but direction, establish a rough balance between the three also gave the White House a central role defining branches of government, and restrain public passions the legislative agenda, making the president both where he could. Andrew Jackson, who served as the originator and enforcer of policy. A master at America’s seventh president (1829-1837) broke the communicating directly with the public through the Washingtonian model of a disinterested, apolitical, radio, his “fireside chats” shaped the image of the and restrained president, riding to power on the back president as caretaker of the American people. And, of a newly formed political party. In this view, the most significantly, Roosevelt brought President president, acting as the sole representative of the Woodrow Wilson’s (1913-1921) internationalist vision entire American public, was charged with protecting the national interest against manipulation by privileged of collective security into practice by presiding over the elites, entitled to stock the federal bureaucracy with birth of the United Nations, and successfully guiding like-minded officials, and was required to fight against the nation during World War II. Harry Truman (1945- the other branches to carry out his program. Abraham 1953), presided over the militarisation of the Cold War Lincoln, America’s 16th president (1861-1865), remade and subsequent creation of modern foreign policy American society through rhetoric and action, expanded and military establishments of the US government, executive power to an unprecedented degree, and including the National Security Council and Central transformed the role of commander-in-chief. Theodore Intelligence Agency. President Ronald Reagan (1981- Roosevelt (1901-1909) responded to the Industrial 1989) oversaw a massive arms build up and the end of Revolution’s social disruptions by rejecting the idea the Cold War while working to diminish the role of the of limited government, regulating business, using the government in American life. “bully pulpit” of the presidency to promote social and labour reforms, and fashioning the Executive Order — Of course, there have been plenty of examples of a power unique to the president that remains under failure as well, and presidential power expanded in fits increasing scrutiny for its constitutionality — into a and starts. John Quincy Adams preceded Jackson, 5 driver of policymaking. He also actively worked to James Buchanan served ahead of Lincoln, and Herbert maintain a favourable balance of power in Asia and Hoover came before Franklin Roosevelt. And that says Europe, solidified America’s forward presence in the nothing about the long list of mediocre and forgettable Pacific, and initiated the largest peacetime buildup of presidents who were largely subordinate to a powerful naval forces in American history.6 Congress.7 But even such a partial list of transformative Modern presidents continued to redefine the scale, presidents suggests that the presidency is greatly scope and power of the presidency. Franklin Roosevelt shaped by particular occupants and their views.8
Photo: President-elect Donald Trump and President Barack Obama in the Oval Office, 10 November 2016 (Getty)
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The president according to the Constitution
The US Constitution is the supreme law of the United States, outlining the structure of the federal government, delineating the powers of the three separate branches of government and establishing the concept of federalism, which divides sovereignty between the federal and state governments. Article I posits the powers of the legislature; Article II the executive branch (the presidency); and Article III, the judiciary.
Article II of the US Constitution enumerates the role, power, and limitations on the American president. It does so in four sections, with the first defining the four-year term of office, the method of election, the necessary qualifications, compensation, and oath of office. The second section enumerates the president’s constitutionally prescribed roles as commander-in-chief of the military and head of the various executive departments, and gives him the power to grant pardons (except in the cases of impeachment), make treaties subject to the Senate’s approval, and nominate judges, ambassadors and officials.
The third article proscribes the president to inform Congress on the state of the Union, recommend policy for their consideration, and execute the laws; the fourth provides the circumstances for removal from office.9
Subsequent constitutional amendments revised the indirect election procedures of the president through the Electoral College (12th Amendment), shifted the start and end dates of presidential terms (20th Amendment), limited to two the number of times a person can be elected president (22nd Amendment), and outlines succession procedure if the president dies, resigns, is removed from office, or is otherwise unable to discharge the powers of the presidency (25th Amendment).
The president, as outlined by the Constitution, was to play multiple roles in the American republic: commander-in-chief, head of state, and chief executive of the federal government.
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Clockwise from top left: Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan, Theodore Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Abraham Lincoln (Getty)
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The extent, and limit, of presidential power
In addition to his or her official position as head of state, in which they came into and occupy office, (2) the head of the federal government and commander-in- president’s political standing and popularity, (3) the chief of the US military, the modern president also degree of friction between the different branches takes on the responsibilities of party leader, legislative of government and between the state and national director, appointer-in-chief, and chief spokesperson. government, (4) the president’s ability to control the This grants the president the power to set the tone executive branch bureaucratic machinery, and (5) and policy for their party, drive a legislative agenda the president himself. How these factors interact and propose a budget, appoint thousands of federal determines the shape and the impact of a president’s employees and nominate hundreds of federal judges, term in office. While such evaluations are necessarily and use the office to influence policy by persuading subjective, they nonetheless offer a useful set of the public, Congress, and the executive branch itself.10 criteria to evaluate presidencies and their subsequent legacies. Yet for all his or her power, there are multiple constraints on the exercise of it. The Constitution checks presidential power by including two other Circumstances co-equal branches of government — the legislative and judiciary. Further, the president is limited by Throughout American history, the general rule has the federalist structure of the government, which been that the more existential a threat seems, the established dual sovereignty between 50 independent more sweeping the powers afforded the president. states and federal government. There are further Indeed, the most sweeping expansions of presidential constraints inside the executive branch, as different power have come during war and economic crises. agencies and departments — ranging from State, As Abraham Lincoln, possibly the most powerful to Defense, to Treasury to the various intelligence president in US history, professed: “I claim not to agencies — compete for resources and operate quasi- have controlled events, but confess plainly that events 11 independently of each other. have controlled me.” That is not to say that Lincoln had no control over his circumstances, but that the In practice, five key factors have determined the skilful manipulation of circumstance is what facilitates outward limits of a president’s power within the a president’s effective exercise of power. This is what constitutional framework: (1) the circumstances Rahm Emmanuel, Barack Obama’s first chief of staff,
Photo: Mount Rushmore National Memorial (Getty)
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meant when he reflected upon the financial crises In practice, the higher the perception of a president’s and the major reforms that the Obama administration prestige, the more support he will garner for his implemented, saying “you never want a serious crisis agenda; and the lower it falls, the more resistance to go to waste… [as] crisis provides the opportunity for it will generate.18 Popularity plays a role here. us to do things that you could not before”.12 Lincoln, America’s most rhetorically gifted president, understood the importance of cultivating public It is only extraordinary circumstances that yield opinion, arguing that “public sentiment is everything. extraordinary powers, such as the suspension of habeas With public sentiment, nothing can fail; without it corpus during the Civil War, the curtailment of political nothing can succeed”. To Lincoln, public opinion served dissent during World War I, and the internment of as the critical foundation Japanese-Americans during World War II. Of course, of all politics and policy, circumstances are not just the product of unforeseen because “he who moulds To Abraham Lincoln, public and momentous events. Whether a president is in sync public sentiment... makes opinion served as the critical or at cross-purposes to the prevailing national mood statutes and decisions will dictate the amount of support or resistance a possible or impossible to foundation of all politics and 13 president encounters for their programs. be executed”.19 policy, because “he who moulds
The exercise of presidential power is also affected Where a president stands public sentiment... makes by the different stages of an administration’s tenure in public opinion can also statutes and decisions possible because its composition, policy inclinations, and relative set boundaries on the level or impossible to be executed”. power shift over time. Presidents often assume office of compliance he receives with a fair amount of political momentum and are more from members of his party likely to push major legislative items early, as was the in Congress and sometimes those from the opposing 14 case with Obamacare. While presidential campaigns party as well. This was evident in the bipartisan typically promise a wholesale rejection of prior policies, support that George W. Bush received for his massive an administration’s first year in power generally offers national security expansion amid 90 per cent approval a mixed repudiation and selective, if quiet, embrace of ratings following the attacks on September 11, 2001. 15 the immediate past. Historically, the president’s party Getting things done, of course, takes much more than generally loses midterm congressional elections, as popularity. A president can be popular but still be unable seen in the Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, and Obama to persuade political actors to do what he wants. While 16 administrations. If a president is defeated during a ideology plays a role, these calculations are rooted re-election campaign he becomes a “lame duck” as in an assessment of whether their own interests are foreign and domestic observers shift their focus to the likely to be served by supporting the president. incoming team.
Separation of powers Political standing While it is a common belief that the three branches But circumstance and prevailing national mood alone of the American government hold separate powers, in cannot explain a president’s ability to ‘get things done’. practice they hold overlapping and mutually dependent A president’s power, in the famous formulation of power, making it very challenging for a president to Harvard professor and White House advisor, Richard impose his will on the government for too long — or, at Neustadt, is “the power to persuade”. That power is least not without the tacit consent of those other two based in large part on the perception of a president’s institutions. competence and popularity. Powerbrokers of all stripes — political, military, diplomatic, business and media — The built-in friction to the machinery of the US constantly calibrate their level of support or defiance of government is clearest in the realms of law, finance, an administration based on their ongoing assessments and national security. The federal courts hold the power of a president’s skill and willingness to act, and his to declare the legality of a law or an administrative standing with the general public.17 action. As Franklin Roosevelt found out when the
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Supreme Court declared much of his legislative agenda caps the size of an administration’s defence budget, unconstitutional and as Trump learned when the limiting the resources available to a president.24 In federal courts repeatedly struck down his immigration wartime, Congress has the ability, rarely exercised, to ban, the judiciary can limit a president’s agenda.20 Yet, defund a war by refusing to appropriate the necessary the judiciary and presidency are more co-dependent budget. than exclusionary, as it often takes executive power to enforce the court’s decisions. Responding This is more pronounced in the legal realm, where contemptuously to a decision contravening the White Congress is constitutionally empowered to declare war House’s policy of Indian Removal, Andrew Jackson and has the ability to place limits on the presidential use was said to have declared that John Marshall, the of military force. Starting with President Truman and chief justice of the Supreme Court at the time, “has the Korean War, presidents have largely circumvented 25 made his decision; now let him enforce it”.21 This cuts congressional authorisation. Nevertheless, the other way as well: Dwight Eisenhower’s decision Congress has with mixed results attempted to curb to use federal troops to enforce the Supreme Court’s presidential authority to commit US forces to armed landmark 1954 ruling that declared segregation in conflict, most significantly with the 1973 War public schools unconstitutional ensured compliance Powers Resolution. This committed the president to with the law. promptly notify Congress upon the commencement of military action and required the White House to If there are overlapping and competing sources of seek authorisation for the use of military force if the power regarding the enforcement of laws, this is even forces remained engaged for more than 60 days. more true with the making of them. The president Additionally, Congress on occasion has acted to curb often serves as legislative leader, but it is Congress presidential use of covert action programs, particularly that enacts law. President John F. Kennedy lamented when such programs are seen as egregious abuses that while the president’s ability to veto congressional of presidential power. Although a variety of factors legislation made it “very favour the executive branch in matters of national easy to defeat a bill in security, presidential power remains contested, and the Congress. It is much congressional restraints, timetables, and committee Presidential power remains more difficult to pass hearings influence an administration’s calculations on contested, and congressional one”. 22 The difficulty varies the timing and advisability of using military force. restraints, timetables, and based on the partisan committee hearings influence composition of the House and Senate, but even when The machinery of government an administration’s calculations a president’s own party on the timing and advisability controls Congress there Presidential power is also contested within the executive branch itself as a president’s power depends of using military force. is no guarantee that they will master the necessary on his ability to drive the machinery of the executive. political horse trading Effectiveness stems from the competence of the entailed with legislation. cabinet officials appointed, the balance and locus of This is even more true in fiscal matters where the power within an administration, and the willingness of president proposes a budget but has to wrestle with the bureaucracy to follow the president’s lead. Cabinet Congress for passage. Congress jealously guards its members, whether working as a “team of rivals” or possession of the “power of the purse”, and as Senator as a cohesive group, advise the president and transmit Lindsey Graham said this past March, “historically, the expertise, institutional knowledge, and preferences presidential budgets do not fare well with Congress”.23 of their respective agencies and departments to the White House.26 Moreover, they have the institutional Indeed, while presidents typically wield more power ability and bandwidth to reach into the bureaucracy in foreign policy than in domestic matters, the most to provide direction and enforce compliance. This conspicuous constraint on a president’s ability to has become most visible in the National Security conduct national security remains Congress’ budgetary Council, which has grown from 10 members at its and statutory authorities. In peacetime, Congress often inception in 1947 to nearly 400 by the end of the
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Obama administration. This growth has increased the the Damascus airport where a hijacked TWA flight was president’s power to conduct foreign policy, develop sitting, Kissinger decided “to give the president the a budget, and assess interagency coordination. While opportunity to have second thoughts” and slowed the all White Houses attempt to centralise and coordinate movement of aircraft carriers heading towards Syria. policymaking to some degree, to have effect there And in the days before Nixon’s resignation the chairman must be decentralised execution, and bureaucratic of the Joint Chiefs of Staff told his subordinates that buy-in.27 if they received orders from the White House to use force, they should first confirm them with him or the It is common to hear new administrations complain secretary of defense.30 There is no way of knowing that a hostile bureaucracy is passively fighting their what would happen in a similar situation in the future, agenda, but the challenge is often more structural but these acts of bureaucratic obstruction point to than it is personal or political. Memorably titled the ability of a government to contain and, in certain “Bureaucracy Does Its Thing”, Robert Komer’s 1972 instances, overrule a president. study on the Vietnam War was a larger statement about the institutional constraints of policy execution.28 Komer argued that policymakers in the White House The individual were stymied as much by their failure to grasp organisational minutiae, as they were by bureaucratic A final determinant on presidential power is the inefficiencies, overlapping authorities, and resistance president himself. Michelle Obama, speaking at the to change. As information tends to flow vertically in Democratic National Convention in 2012, declared that Washington, the executive is frequently filled with “being president doesn’t change who you are, it reveals semi-autonomous entities that wage constant turf who you are”.31 While easily dismissed as campaign wars over budgets and authorities. These feuds, rhetoric, such a sentiment captures something about however, are not just over resources or strategy; they presidential leadership that is impossible to quantify, also concern policy objectives themselves. In theory, but that matters enormously. A president’s resilience, the White House deconflicts and adjudicates these firmness, willingness to take measured risk, attention institutional differences. But this depends upon the to detail, and ability to tolerate and encourage bureaucratic skill of an administration and a White disagreement, all play an enormous, perhaps decisive, House, and especially of a president. role in determining the success of a presidency. Such a list — temperament, character, and judgement in short Nowhere is the dynamic between a president and his hand — does not reveal what a president will do in a executive branch more critical than when it comes to given situation. It does however suggest the manner his role as commander-in-chief, in possession of an in which the occupant of the Oval Office approaches arsenal of nuclear and conventional weapons. Yet, their tenure.32 this unimaginable power is predicated on whether the chain of command follows a presidential order that they deem excessive or unbalanced. According to Jack Goldsmith, an expert on national security law, the answer is they would: “The president’s view, and whatever orders stem from that view… carry the day.”29
But, as Richard Nixon’s presidency illustrates, the historical record on this is mixed. In multiple instances, and due to his erratic behaviour, subordinates checked Nixon’s direct commands, either by slow-rolling their response, or simply ignoring them. When Nixon ordered a retaliatory nuclear strike against North Korea for shooting down a Navy reconnaissance plane, his Defense Secretary Melvin Laird successfully obstructed the process. When Nixon wanted to bomb
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The Trump stress test
Donald Trump is subjecting the presidency to a stress of Pearl Harbor, or even the global financial crisis.35 test, challenging the outer boundaries of democratic A true international crisis, and perhaps a domestic governance. In his demands for personal loyalty oaths terrorist event, might change that dynamic, yet present over constitutional obligations, his tarnishing of the conditions do not permit such an outright suppression integrity of independent government institutions and his of civil liberties, as Trump has sought in regards to libel attacks on free speech and the independent media, the laws and free speech.36 president, in the words of his son-in-law, is attempting to “bend, and possibly break, the office to his will”.33 While there is much Trump can do to question Trump is not the first populist to seize control of the American global leadership, the jury is out as to White House, as Andrew Jackson’s tumultuous eight- whether circumstances make it clear that he has a year term demonstrated.34 Nor is he the first president mandate to do so. In fact, American support for its to bring the government to the brink of a constitutional alliance and defence commitments actually seems to 37 crisis. But due to policies that remain both opaque and be increasing. During the 2016 campaign, 89 per cent uncertain in many critical areas, actions and speech that of the overall public thought that maintaining existing continue to transgress the normal bounds of American alliances was very or somewhat effective at achieving political discourse, and lingering questions over how American foreign policy goals. Among self-identified much more disruptive his presidency could become, Trump supporters, those numbers dipped to 84 per 38 Trump has heightened concerns about the long-term cent — hardly an embrace of his isolationist position. effect he is having on the presidency and the American More telling was the Chicago Council of Global Affairs system of checks and balances. October 2017 poll results. Not only was support for the alliance system and defence commitments holding 10 months into the Trump era, but it actually seemed to Circumstances be increasing, with more Americans convinced that alliances are very effective.39 As this data underscored, As every occupant of the White House discovers, it is “the US public is not buying [Trump’s] argument”.40 the domestic and foreign circumstances under which While premature to conclude that such initial reactions they assume office that shapes their presidency. No are tantamount to a wholesale rejection of Trump’s matter the “American carnage” that Trump described transactional view of American foreign policy, it would in his inauguration address, Trump’s presidency did not be an error to read Trump’s election as a wholesale start out with an existential crisis on the scale of the rejection of America’s commitments to allies and American Civil War, the Great Depression, the bombing presence in places such as the Asia-Pacific region and
Photo: President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, 28 January 2017 (Getty)
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Europe. While Trump has the ability to challenge long- legislative accomplishments and boasts that he has held assumptions of America’s place in the world, such signed more bills “than any president, ever”.44 In truth, challenges have already faced bipartisan resistance Trump signed fewer bills into law in his first year than any from the public and Congress. recent president.45 But his administration has delivered on multiple promises as well, including passing tax reform, rolling back business and environmental Political standing regulations, pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, withdrawing from the Paris climate deal, degrading Trump’s future political standing will also determine ISIS, and enacting tougher immigration enforcement the level of support he receives for his agenda. Based among other measures. As long as Trump finds some on polls, special congressional elections, command success for his agenda and is able to deliver to his of the public narrative and ability to deliver legislative core supporters — either through executive actions victories, the results are mixed. His favourability ratings or congressional support — his political standing will are historically low for this early in a presidency. Indeed, not sink below a floor. But, until he has the ability to he is the only president that a majority of Americans attract new supporters, his agenda will continue to disapprove of this soon after his inauguration, and face stiff political headwinds. History illustrates that if he has the lowest net approval ratings in the history his popularity and accomplishments do not improve, 41 of presidential polling. Further, the combination of he will likely face a primary challenger in 2020. the president’s unfavourability ratings, mixed state election results, and the fact that significantly more Republicans are retiring from congressional seats in The separation of powers 2018 than normal, make this year’s midterm elections a particularly challenging political environment for Many have asked what Trump’s constant attacks Republicans. These factors will play an outsized role on democratic norms, constitutional restraints, and in whether Trump finds himself with an even friendlier morality portend, and questioned whether this means and more pliant, or hostile and more antagonistic the end of democracy and the beginning of American Congress.42 autocracy and tyranny.46 For that to happen, the How Trump’s message resonates with Americans, presidency would have to however, is just as relevant to his political fortunes. gain decisive control over the The combination of President Nowhere has Trump’s message been louder than on other branches of government Trump’s unfavourability ratings, Twitter. Trump realised faster than anyone else that and an ability to effectively mixed state election results, his direct and unfiltered access to a global audience drive the bureaucracy under and the fact that significantly on a moment’s notice had upended the rules of mass its command. For the time communication and he could communicate, provoke, being, while the institutional more Republicans are retiring and distract pretty much constantly. Less clear, constraints on power are from congressional seats in however, is whether the bully pulpit’s new medium is absolutely being tested, they 2018 than normal, make this powerful, or just noisy. Trump’s tweets, for example, have not cracked. The judiciary year’s midterm elections a seemed to indicate that transgender individuals would has upheld its independence no longer be allowed to serve in America’s armed and status as a co-equal particularly challenging political forces, yet Defense Department policy has not shifted. branch of government, both environment for Republicans. While such tweets command attention, it is far from striking down a number of clear whether they herald policy shifts or just reflect his the president’s executive immediate and unfiltered reactions to events.43 orders on constitutional grounds — such as his hurried implementation of a travel ban on numerous Muslim- Politically, Trump’s fortunes will be judged not just by majority nations — while upholding other measures it what he says, but what he is able to accomplish. Here found constitutional. the record is mixed. The multiple attempts to repeal and replace Obamacare, build a border wall, develop In a Republican-controlled Congress, Republicans an infrastructure strategy, or even pass a budget have had limited success in achieving their agenda. undercut the White House’s claims of Trump’s stellar Congressional Republicans can only claim two major
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accomplishments for 2017 — the passage of tax reform involves pressuring business to abide by state-set legislation and the confirmation of the Supreme Court standards.47 Justice Neil Gorsuch. House and Senate Republicans have failed to repeal and replace Obamacare despite It is important to note that beyond institutional repeated attempts; and the Senate vote to increase constraints, it is norms of behaviour that establish sanctions on Russia for its interference in the US the boundaries of American democracy. These are, election and other offences passed 98-2 despite the in one former presidential speechwriter’s words, “the threat of a presidential veto. unenforced and unenforceable standards of civility and respect” that keep leaders’ baser instincts in At the same time, however, congressional Republicans check.48 Indeed, the founding fathers imagined that seem willing to bend to Trump’s will in exchange for the presidency would be filled with individuals “pre- presidential support for various legislative priorities. eminent for ability and virtue” as a defence against This is most significant in the ongoing investigations “men of factious tempers, of local prejudices, or of into allegations of obstruction of justice, collusion sinister designs” who would “by intrigue, by corruption, with Russians during the or by other means” betray the public trust.49 Indeed, presidential campaign, and they believed personal restraint, particularly among the The actions that Trump takes, the multiple ethics violations nation’s leaders, to be necessary for self-government. and charges of personal Nowhere is this more true than with the president, and the responses of law profit brought against Trump who in addition to commanding a fearsome arsenal enforcement officers and and his family. In all of these, is able, with his rhetoric, to incite unrest or sooth congressional Republicans members of Congress, might societal grievances. Here, Trump has had a direct and have not been willing to risk be the ultimate test of how coarsening effect on political discourse — evident in an overly public break, or to his stirring ethnic and racial prejudices, encouraging resilient democratic institutions too aggressively investigate police brutality, labelling the press as “enemies of and norms are, and how much a Republican president — the people”, as well as politicising previously non- and have regularly sought to they have deteriorated. partisan institutions like the CIA and FBI. It is this weaken, delay, and discredit constant violation of political norms that ultimately will the ongoing investigations. most challenge the institutions designed to safeguard Of the few Republican senators who have publicly American liberties. criticised the president, none have insisted on transparency and accountability on the president’s Central to the current stress test is whether or not personal financial affairs or with regards to the Russia Trump has abused the powers of the presidency investigation, while all have advanced his agenda and in order to protect his own personal interests. This voted with him in almost complete lockstep. question raises discrete and broader points. Narrowly, Because of the federated nature of the American polity, it asks whether, in the midst of multiple investigations state governments also have the ability to circumscribe over obstruction of justice and conspiring with a the president’s power. Just as President Obama found foreign power to affect the 2016 election, the president that state governors could refuse federal funding has the ability to fire or pardon whomever he chooses for mandatory public healthcare under Obamacare, — including himself — regardless of motive or intent. Trump has had similar challenges from states and Trump’s personal lawyer has already suggested that the cities opposed to his policies. On issues surrounding “president cannot obstruct justice because he is the climate change, immigration and voter fraud, the chief law enforcement officer under [the Constitution’s administration has faced opposition. For example, Article II] and has every right to express his view because of the market power of California — the of any case”.50 This broaches the larger, and more world’s sixth largest economy — the administration consequential, point of how the president is bound by might find its ability to roll back federal regulations on and held accountable to the law. The actions that Trump greenhouse gas emissions neutralised. Pledging to takes, and the responses of law enforcement officers run a “countermovement”, California’s governor has and members of Congress, might be the ultimate test strategised with other like-minded state and national of how resilient democratic institutions and norms are, leaders on how to set state standards, part of which and how much they have deteriorated.
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The machinery of government While the pace of nominations has picked up, both the number of nominations and Senate confirmations of Within the executive branch, the president holds much presidential appointments lags significantly behind greater sway, but his ability to force his preferences his predecessors.54 It took nearly a year to nominate on the government are hardly uncontested. Cabinet and confirm the Pentagon and State’s top officials secretaries “serve at the pleasure of the president”, for Asia. Many critical subordinate positions remain but they are not without power and status in their own vacant and as recently as February 2018 the White right. Here, Trump may have something of a ‘James House had no ambassadors in Canberra or Seoul. In Mattis Problem’ in that Defense Secretary Mattis is the conduct of foreign policy, the administration’s lack not only more popular with Congress than President of experience combined with its marginalisation of the Trump, but is known to fundamentally disagree with State Department and other organs of national security the president on a number of policy areas. President mean that it has less ability to effectively carry out any Andrew Johnson’s 1868 impeachment centred on strategy. his dismissal of Secretary of War Edwin Stanton. The political dynamics in the aftermath of the Civil War are wholly different than today. But while such a dismissal The individual is not unimaginable, Mattis’ personal integrity as well as his standing with Congress, would constrain the Restraint and Donald Trump are not words that are president. Moreover, Trump’s cabinet, while loyal, often paired. And with good reason. As a long-time does disagree with him in private, and has done so Trump friend explained, “Donald Trump has spent his publicly to an unprecedented degree for modern entire life a free agent; he has always done things his administrations.51 way”. 55 As head of a family-run business, Trump did not have to deal with shareholders or a board of directors Effective execution of the president’s agenda requires that could hold him accountable for his decisions. a federal government ready, willing, and able to Always playing offence and never apologising served carry it out. This is particularly pronounced in the Trump well as a real estate mogul and reality TV realm of foreign policy where complicated issues celebrity, allowing him to ignore criticism, put his require multiple actors coordinating resources and opponents on their heels, and influence, if not control, deconflicting authorities. As Stephen Sestanovich the narrative.56 It was Trump’s temperament and has noted, “to work, they depend on the resources, character that spawned the birth of the ‘Never-Trump technical expertise, coordinated implementation, and Republicans’ who, like Peter Wehner, concluded that support of the national-security bureaucracy”.52 “he is unlikely to be contained by norms and customs, While premature to conclude that the president or even by laws and the Constitution. For Mr. Trump, has won or lost the debate on America’s role in nothing is sacred. The truth is malleable, instrumental, the world — including its purpose, coherence, and subjective”.57 While inconsistency can be a virtue, as it prospects — Trump, according to Sestanovich, “is allows policy to adapt to changing conditions and new certainly losing control of it” because of his inability, facts, unmoored to principle and untethered to fact, it or unwillingness, to adequately staff the government.53 provides a poor basis for leadership.
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Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy
Even though the broad contours of Trump’s opinions on a number of issues — from the value of free trade and alliances to his sympathies towards authoritarian strongmen — have remained fairly consistent, the White House’s communication of his policy has been deliberately erratic.58
The challenge is deeper, however, than communication. From repeatedly questioning security commitments, to flip-flopping policy positions, to undermining the efforts of his administration, the president suffers from a “credibility gap”. This is compounded by Trump’s penchant for speaking falsely on a regular basis.59 As a result, both at home and abroad (and even with long- standing allies) large majorities find Trump untrustworthy.60
While some see more continuity than change in Trump’s foreign policy, the majority of outside observers have found it challenging to understand the intent of White House policy on most key issues from NAFTA and NATO, to Asia and the Middle East. To some degree, there will always be uncertainty after a presidential election about how much policy will actually change. This uncertainty is heightened when there is a transition from one party to another. It is heightened further when the president who takes office continues to make statements which are outside the bounds of normal foreign policy discourse and procedurally opaque. Trump, to be sure, wants to be less predictable than his predecessors and international opponents, declaring “we must, as a nation, be more unpredictable”.61
There are countervailing forces at work against Trump’s penchant for unpredictability. Secretary Mattis, Chief of Staff John Kelly, National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson collectively are referred to as “the adults in the room”, and have attempted to give structure, organisation, and coherence to the administration’s foreign policy.62 But the president’s unpredictability continues to undermine such efforts, as his pronouncements on issues ranging from trade, to North Korea, have repeatedly and explicitly undercut his cabinet secretaries. The result has made it nearly impossible to understand what is a tweet and what, ultimately, is policy.
As Trump knows, from a negotiating perspective, and certainly when dealing with competitors, unpredictability carries some advantages and, judiciously applied, can provide leverage. But elevating unpredictability to a strategy has downsides. It has confused allies, promoted instability in critical trade relationships, elevated
15 the risks of miscommunication in a crisis, and left the world questioning the credibility of American commitments.63 The actions required to demonstrate resolve and to signal deterrence have likely increased, as have the chances of unintentional escalation.
Some of this will be offset by more trusted cabinet members and the might of the American military, but no matter how many times US alliances are reaffirmed by senior officials, presidential unpredictability raises fears that America will not live up to its security guarantees. As a major US ally in Asia commented, “Washington, DC is now the epicenter of instability in the world”.64 Perhaps the most damaging result is that the president no longer is seen as having the final word on foreign policy and national security and is often bypassed. “I’ll tell you, honestly, for a foreigner, in the past we were used to going to the White House to get our work done,” Shivshankar Menon, India’s former foreign secretary and national security adviser to the prime minister recently stated.65 “Now we go to the corporations, to Congress, to the Pentagon, wherever.”
Left to right: H. R. McMaster, James Mattis. Donald Trump and John Kelly (Getty) UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
Implications
History tells us that the unpredictable nature of pronouncement, future presidents will continue to find circumstances and individual leaders means the governing different than campaigning. shape and power of the presidency is always evolving. Regardless of the president, some elements of the Likewise, it is a safe bet to conclude that the next, presidency are likely to endure as permanent features, or even the next several, administrations will define and some old debates are likely to resurface. themselves in opposition to Trump’s presidency. George W. Bush came into office with an ABC (Anything But Clinton) mentality, while Barack Obama What will stay the same most concisely defined his relatively restrained foreign policy strategy, “Don’t Do Stupid Shit”, to juxtapose it Different moments change the shape of the presidency. against the perceived sins of George W. Bush’s. That is The challenges of the first year differ from those of obviously more true if a Democrat is the next occupant the second, and those of a first term from a second of the White House, but will probably hold even if a term. Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton’s Republican succeeds Trump. tenures all furnish examples of presidents turning to foreign policy when frustrated at home, and when they Finally, some have suggested that in response to are in legacy-building mode. Certain moments during Trump, and perhaps during this administration, the a president’s tenure — generally at the outset, after locus of power could shift back to the legislative re-election or after profound shocks such as 9/11 — branch. History, however, suggests that the president are more conducive than others to producing or re- will continue to occupy the “bully pulpit” that sits at the evaluating strategy. centre of American political discourse. Congress can resist the president, as it did during the Nixon and Ford While Trump’s election clearly indicated profound administrations in the 1970s, and it often becomes the dissatisfaction with the American political process, centre of action during political impasses, as it was it has not transformed the requirements of effective during Clinton’s impeachment in 1998 or during the governance from process to fiat. Guiding legislation budget showdowns of the Obama era. But it cannot through Congress, negotiating with foreign leaders, take over foreign policy. As a result, the global focus and building coalitions at home and abroad are will remain on the words of the president, the White tasks that require time and skill. Because policy is House and the national security apparatus more than as much about process and personnel as it is about it does Congress.
Photo: The White House (Getty)
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What might change One set of reforms which will be called for will be to streamline the focus and ease the burdens of the Throughout American history there have been periodic office. In his recent survey of the presidency, Jeremi calls to reform the presidency. Those proposed reforms Suri concluded that “by the start of the twenty-first have taken on different shapes depending on both the century, the inhuman demands of the office made it circumstances and the occupant of the office, and have impossible to succeed as president”.66 Proliferating alternatively called for scaling up its reach, stripping responsibilities, accumulating demands, accelerating back its powers, and making it more manageable. In news cycles, and busier work schedules have the aftermath of Trump, several of these debates and left presidents at a disadvantage. The hectic pace recommendations are likely to resurface. has translated into a daily grind that has often left presidents reacting to events with the immediate First, it is almost inevitable that Americans will debate crowding out the important, bereft of time for strategic how the presidential election is conducted and whether thinking, and ultimately less well equipped to handle the process should change. This discussion will revolve the extraordinary demands of the job. around three questions: Is there a better nomination process within the major parties; is it time to shift Apart from the toll the office exacts, its frenetic pace away from the Electoral College and towards a popular translates into a constantly distracted chief executive. vote; and is there a better way to safeguard American Most notorious here is Jimmy Carter, whose elections from foreign interference? perfectionism and zealous attention to detail led him The prolonged campaign season combined with to read hundreds of pages Trump is not the first president the pace of individual state primaries tends to push of detailed briefings each candidates to cater to their party’s most dedicated week, check the accuracy to assume office having lost base. The charges against the current system are that of the budget’s arithmetic, the popular vote; in fact, he’s the nomination process produces candidates less and even personally attractive to the broad centre of American politics, the fifth. The prospects of assess all requests to use eliminating the Electoral College bloodied by partisan ideological fights and therefore the White House tennis vulnerable in a general election, and more focused courts.67 Although this is and replacing it with a popular on smaller states, such as Iowa or New Hampshire, an extreme example which vote, however, are slim. whose primaries occur earliest in the calendar. Unless Carter eventually moved these states voluntarily abandon their early primary away from, it led his chief dates, or the political parties mandate a streamlined speechwriter, James Fallows, to conclude that “if [the and tightened nominating process, such changes are president] is distracted from the big choices by the unlikely. torrent of petty details, the big choices will not get 68 A second complaint that will reappear is whether made”. to abolish the Electoral College. Given that Trump To help future presidents strike a balance, particularly lost the popular vote by nearly three million votes to in the aftermath of a presidency that is viewed as Hillary Clinton, but still was elected president due to impulsive and in need of institutional “guardrails”, the mathematics of the Electoral College, this charge debates about the bureaucratic structure within the has particular resonance even if most of the voices executive branch and constraints on presidential advocating for its abolition are Democrats. Trump is action will resurface. The bureaucracy’s focus will not the first president to assume office having lost the be on institutional reform, but the questions will be popular vote; in fact, he’s the fifth. The prospects of multiple, ranging from streamlining decisionmaking, to eliminating the Electoral College and replacing it with eliminating petty burdens on the president, to shifting a popular vote, however, are slim. Not only would it certain responsibilities away from the executive. require the passage of a constitutional amendment; but it would also privilege urban population centres In national security matters, the discussion will centre over low-density rural areas, which would be politically on how to ensure the presidency is more focused on unpalatable to a large number of American politicians. decision-making, how to decentralise execution to
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executive agencies, and how to ensure that strategic George W. Bush’s speechwriter David Frum has decisions are thoroughly vetted. This is especially recently pointed out that the military and intelligence true on command-and-control of the armed forces, services have developed methods to cope with Trump where Trump’s presidency has revived talk among “that circumvent the president’s role as commander- academics, legal experts, military officers and senators in-chief”. From divulging highly classified information about what checks are in place to constrain a reckless to the Russian foreign minister and ambassador, to 70 or illegal order. Debate has already commenced on telling Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte the location restructuring the National Security Council, but after of two US nuclear submarines, Trump has caused Trump’s presidency there will be renewed examination the national security community to recalibrate what of whether other branches of government, executive information it shares and how promptly it responds branch agencies and the military should have more to the president. Even for those who applaud efforts ability to constrain a president. to ‘cage’ Trump, and certainly for those who do not, Crucially, as Trump has disrupted many norms within these actions have the potential to slowly erode the the national security community, there will be further president’s role in the chain of command, degrade scrutiny on the constitutional norms surrounding the civilian-military relations, and challenge the principle of president’s role as commander-in-chief.71 President civilian control over the armed forces.
Conclusion
At some point, the Trump presidency will end — Franklin Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan. Like all previous whether that comes in 2025, 2021, or sooner — and presidents, but perhaps more so than most, Trump will the nation will move on. While it is far too early to continually meet bureaucratic friction — some endemic conclude what the sum total of Trump’s effect on the to bureaucracies, and some unique to his presidency. presidency will amount to, several observations can be made. At present, the balance of power between the But while the separation of powers has the potential branches of government continues to hold, but could to constrain Trump domestically, it is much less able tip if the 2018 midterm elections — where a third of the to restrain him internationally. While all American Senate and the entire House of Representatives will presidents are both empowered and constrained by face re-election — either bring more hardcore Trump the office, what is different in the Trump administration supporters to Washington, or tip Congress to the is the seeming instability emanating from the White Democrats. Trump, however, will probably not preside House. This turbulence has, and will, continue to over a major or permanent reorganisation of the US subject the integrity of America’s political system and government in a way similar to Andrew Jackson, position in the world to a stress test.
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Endnotes
1. For instance, see Eliot Cohen’s pieces, “A Clarifying power, “What to do with an Unfit President,” Moment in American History,” and “American Washington Post, October 9, 2017: https://www. are Rising to the This Historic Moment,” one year washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-to-do-with-an- apart from each other, in The Atlantic. https://www. unfit-president/2017/10/09/074cc0e2-ad09-11e7- theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/01/a-clarifying- a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?undefined=&utm_ moment-in-american-history/514868/; https:// term=.28ee1d7a7654&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1 www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/01/ 8. For a particularly insightful account of how different trump-clarifying/550562/?utm_source=twb. presidents’ ideas continue to shape the conduct 2. Jeremi Suri, The Impossible Presidency: The of American foreign policy see Walter Russell Rise and Fall of America’s Highest Office Mead’s Special Providence: American Foreign (New York: Basic Books, 2017), p. 20. Policy and How it Changed the World (New York: Knopf, 2003). And, for those interested in a deeper 3. Hamilton, Federalist Paper 23. http://avalon. dive on the presidents, see the law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed23.asp. Washington Post podcast, “Presidential,” which explores the 4. John Morton Blum, The Republican Roosevelt character and legacy of each of the American (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1954), presidents. https://www.washingtonpost.com/ p. 108; for a spirited and controversial take on graphics/business/presidential-podcast/. this point, see Harvey Mansfield, “The Law and 9. For more on the history of impeachment, see the President in a National Emergency: Who Simon Jackman’s Impeachment 101: The History, You Gonna Call?’ Weekly Standard, January Process and Prospect of a Trump Impeachment, 16, 2006. http://www.weeklystandard.com/ July 18, 2017. https://www.ussc.edu.au/ the-law-and-the-president/article/7751 analysis/impeachment-101-the-history-process- 5. Roosevelt issued more than 1,000 executive and-prospect-of-a-trump-impeachment. orders, nearly as many as all of his predecessors 10. At the start of the Trump administration, there combined and almost ten times as many as his were roughly 4,100 positions in the government predecessor. For more, see Kenneth R. Mayer, open to presidential appointment process: With the Stroke of a Pen: Executive Orders and https://www.govinfo.gov/features/2016-plum- Presidential Power (Princeton: Princeton University book. For a list of judicial appointments by Press, 2003). For data on the use of Executive president, see: http://www.uscourts.gov/judges- Orders, and for a repository of their texts, see judgeships/authorized-judgeships/judgeship- he American Presidency Project: http://www. appointments-president. On the president’s ability presidency.ucsb.edu/executive_orders.php to persuade see Richard E. Neustadt’s classic 6. Michael J. Green, By More than Providence: Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents: Grand Strategy and American Power in the The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Asia Pacific Since 1783 (New York: Columbia Reagan (New York: The Free Press, 1990). University Press, 2017), 78-113. 11. Abraham Lincoln to Albert G. Hodges, April 4, 1864. 7. Robert Kagan recently made the argument for http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=104107 congressionally-led government, arguing that “for 12. Rahm Emanuel, November 18, 2018, WSJ the decades after the Civil War but also to a lesser Interview. http://www.wsj.com/video/rahm- extent during the 1920s... Congress ran the show emanuel-on-the-opportunities-of-crisis/3F6B9880- on many critical matters and the president dared D1FD-492B-9A3D-70DBE8EB9E97.html take no action without the approval of powerful 13. Arthur M. Schlesinger Jr., The Cycles of American committee chairmen.” “Impeaching Trump is a long History (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1999); Steven shot. There’s another way to protect the country,” Sestanovich, Maximalist: America in the World Washington Post, September 4, 2017. https:// from Truman to Obama (New York: Knopf, 2014). www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/impeaching- trump-is-a-long-shot-theres-another-way-to- 14. Julia Azari, “A President’s First 100 Days protect-the-country/2017/09/04/78dd58bc-8d96- Really Do Matter,” FiveThirtyEight, 17 January 11e7-84c0-02cc069f2c37_story.html?utm_term=. 2017, https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a- cf035a7f2f83. See also, the Washington Post’s presidents-first-100-days-really-do-matter/; editorial for the amplification of congressional 15. The University of Virginia’s Miller Center’s First Year
20 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
Project features a terrific set of essays by leading scholars Kearns Goodwin’s Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of on the challenges that different incoming administrations Abraham Lincoln (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2005). have faced in their first years. http://firstyear2017.org/. As an 27. During the Obama administration, his first three of his additional resource, see also Southern Methodist University’s secretaries of defence complained that the White House Center for Presidential History. https://www.smu.edu/CPH. intruded too far into operational details. Robert Gates claimed 16. John Woolley and Gerhard Peters, “Seat in Congress/Lost by that “the controlling nature of the Obama White House and the the President’s Party in the Mid-Term Elections - F. Roosevelt - NSS staff took micromanagement and operational meddling Obama,” The American Presidency Project, 19 December 2014, to a new level.” Leon Panetta charged that “officials who http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/mid-term_elections.php knew the most about certain subjects were excluded from 17. Neustadt described this as the “Washington community” important public debates.” And, Chuck Hagel groused that which consisted of “Members of Congress and “We seemed to veer away from the big issues.” Robert Gates, of his Administration, governors of states, military Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War (New York: Alfred A. commanders in the field, leading politicians in both Knopf, 2014), p. 587; Leon Panetta, Worthy Fights: A Memoir of parties, representatives of private organizations, newsmen Leadership in War and Peace (New York, Penguin Press, 2014), of assorted types and sizes, foreign diplomats (and p. 232; Chuck Hagel, http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/18/ principles abroad)… no matter what their physical location” hagel-the-white-house-tried-to-destroy-me. For a history of these were all “Washingtonians.” Neustadt, p. 50. the NSC, see David Rothkopf, Running the World: The Inside Story of the National Security Council and the Architects 18. Neustadt, p. 76 ff. of American Power (New York: Public Affairs, 2005). 19. Paul M. Angle, ed., The Complete Lincoln-Douglas Debates 28. R. W. Komer, Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional of 1858 (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991), p. 128. Constraints on U.S.- GVN Performance in Vietnam. Santa 20. The Executive Order was then revised by the Trump Monica: RAND, 1972. For a modern take on this challenge, administration, which the Supreme Court upheld in part, and see Frances Z. Brown, “Bureaucracy Does Its Thing, Again,” struck down in part as still violating the equal protection clause. The American Interest, Vol. 8, No. 2. October 9, 2012. https:// 21. H. W. Brands, Andrew Jackson: His Life and www.the-american-interest.com/2012/10/09/bureaucracy- Times (New York: Doubleday, 2005), 493. does-its-thing-again. The classic study of bureaucracy is James 22. John F. Kennedy, “Television and Radio Interview: After Two Q. Wilson’s Bureaucracy: What Government Agencies Do and Years - A Conversation With the President.” December 17, Why They Do It (New York: Basic Books, 1989). Also relevant is 1962. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=9060. Leslie H. Gelb with Richard K. Betts, The Irony of Vietnam: The System Worked (Washington D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1979). 23. Lindsey Graham, March 16, 2017. https://twitter.com/ lindseygrahamsc/status/842465304215207941?lang=en 29. Sarah Grant and Jack Goldsmith, “What if President Trump Orders Secretary of Defense Mattis to Do Something 24. See Ashley Townshend, Dougal Robinson, and Deeply Unwise?,” Lawfare, 22 August 2017, https:// Brendan Thomas-Noone’s “Trump, Congress and the www.lawfareblog.com/what-if-president-trump-orders- 2018 defence budget: A primer for Australia.” https:// secretary-defense-mattis-do-something-deeply-unwise www.ussc.edu.au/analysis/trump-congress-and- the-2018-defence-budget-a-primer-for-australia 30. Both of these examples are cited by David Ignatius in his column “Our Best Hope against Nuclear War,” Washington 25. This method has become the norm over the past seven Post, October 3, 2017. https://www.washingtonpost. decades, and Truman’s decision set the precedent for com/opinions/global-opinions/our-best-hope-against- subsequent presidential justifications for authorisation of nuclear-war/2017/10/03/7df61d86-a883-11e7-92d1- force without congressional authorisation. The standard work 58c702d2d975_story.html?utm_term=.a6cc14e44274 remains Louis Fischer’s Presidential War Powers (Lawrence: University Press of Kansas, 1995). For a helpful overview, 31. Michelle Obama, DNC Convention Speech, September see Jennifer Elsea and Richard Grimmett, The Congressional 4, 2012. http://www.npr.org/2012/09/04/160578836/ Research Service, “Declarations of War and Authorizations transcript-michelle-obamas-convention-speech for the Use of Military Force: Historical Background and Legal 32. Fred I. Grenstein, The Presidential Difference: Leadership Style Implications.” https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL31133.pdf from FDR to Barack Obama (Princeton: Princeton University 26. For examples of histories that do a particularly good job at Press, 2009). Beyond this, see James MacGregor Burns’ sketching presidents surrounded by strong and talented Leadership (New York: Harper & Row, 1978). Two particularly groups of advisors, see Walter Isaacson and Evan Thomas’s useful works that examine character are William Lee Miller’s The Wise Men: Six Friends and the World They Made Lincoln’s Virtues: An Ethical Biography (New York: Alfred A. (London: Faber and Faber, 1986), David Halberstam’s Knopf, 2002) and Peggy Noonan’s When Character was King: The Best and the Brightest (New York: Random House, A Story of Ronald Reagan (New York: Penguin Books, 2001). 1972), James Mann’s Rise of the Vulcans: The History of 33. Maggie Haberman, Glen Thrush, and Peter Baker, “Inside Bush’s War Cabinet (New York: Viking, 2004), and Doris Trump’s Hour-by-Hour Battle for Self-Preservation,”
21 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
New York Times, December 9, 2017. https://www. 43. See Nicholas Carr, “Why Trump Tweets (And Why We nytimes.com/2017/12/09/us/politics/donald-trump- Listen)” Politico Magazine, January 26, 2018. https:// president.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/26/donald- &clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column- trump-twitter-addiction-216530. For a fuller treatment that region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0 proceeded Trump’s presidential campaign, see Carr, The 34. For contrasting views on the relevance of Andrew Jackson to Shallows: What the Internet is Doing to our Brains (New Trump’s presidency see, H. W. Brands, “Trump as the New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2010). For Trump’s Twitter Andrew Jackson: Not on Old Hickory’s Life,” Politico Magazine, statistics, see, https://twittercounter.com/realDonaldTrump January 29, 2017 and Walter Russell Mead’s interview with 44. Donald J. Trump, “Trump: U.S. Wealth Has ‘Been Susan Glasser, “The Man who put Andrew Jackson’s Portrait Drained’, The Washington Post, 18 July 2017, https:// in the Oval Office,”Politico Magazine, January 22, 2018. www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/trump-us- https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/01/andrew- wealth-has-been-drained/2017/07/17/b1eb89f4-6b2b-11e7- jackson-donald-trump-populist-president-history-214705 abbc-a53480672286_video.html?utm_term=.c353c1befb1c and https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/01/22/ 45. GovTrack Insider, “Falling From First to Last: President andrew-jackson-donald-trump-216493. Also see Mead’s “The Trump has signed the fewest bills into law by this point Jacksonian Revolt: American Populism and the Liberal Order,” in any recent president’s first year,”GovTrack Insider, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2017. https://www.foreignaffairs. 22 December 2017, https://govtrackinsider.com/ com/articles/united-states/2017-01-20/jacksonian-revolt. falling-from-first-to-last-president-trump-has-signed-the- 35. Donald J. Trump, “The Inaugural Address,” January 20, fewest-bills-into-law-by-this-point-in-8945aac6ad54 2017. https://www.whitehouse.gov/inaugural-address 46. In particular, see Andrew Sullivan, “America Has Never Been 36. Jenna Johnson, “A Brief History of Donald Trump’s Mixed so Ripe for Tyranny,” New York Magazine, May 1, 2016. http:// Messages on Freedom of Speech,” The Washington Post, nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/04/america-tyranny- 29 September 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ donald-trump.html; David Frum, “How to Build an Autocracy,” politics/a-brief-history-of-donald-trumps-mixed-messages- The Atlantic, March 2017. https://www.theatlantic.com/ on-freedom-of-speech/2017/09/28/dd44160c-a3b6-11e7- magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/; ade1-76d061d56efa_story.html?utm_term=.b95795e5cdfa. Timothy Snyder, On Tyranny: Twenty Lessons from the 37. Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “What Americans Twentieth Century (New York: Tim Duggan Books, 2017). think about America First,” October 2, 2017, p. 10. 47. Evan Halper, “Gov. Jerry Brown calls for ‘countermovement’ https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/ against Trump’s ‘colossal mistake’ on climate change,” what-americans-think-about-america-first Los Angeles Times, 28 March 2017, http://www.latimes. com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates- 38. 2016 Chicago Council Survey, “America in the Age gov-jerry-brown-calls-for-1490734956-htmlstory.html. of Uncertainty: American Public Opinion and US Foreign Policy,” October 6, 2016, p. 29. https:// 48. Michael Gerson, “America is Riding a Carousel of Hate,” www.thechicagocouncil.org/sites/default/files/ The Washington Post, 15 June 2017, https://www. ccgasurvey2016_america_age_uncertainty.pdf. washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-is-riding-a- carousel-of-hate/2017/06/15/c85caabc-520b-11e7-91eb- 39. Chicago Council on Global Affairs, “What 9611861a988f_story.html?utm_term=.a84261ffed24 Americans think about America First,” p. 10. 49. Federalist Paper 68; 10. http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/ 40. Ibid, p. 11. fed68.asp; http://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed10.asp. 41. Henry Enten, “Six Months In, Trump Is Historically 50. Mike Allen, “Exclusive: Trump lawyer claims the ‘President Unpopular,” FiveThirtyEight, 17 July 2017, https:// cannot obstruct justice,’” Axios, 4 December 2017, fivethirtyeight.com/features/six-months-in-trump-is- https://www.axios.com/exclusive-trump-lawyer-claims- historically-unpopular/. FiveThirtyEight serves as an the-president-cannot-obstruct-justice-1513388369- aggregator of poll data; for a daily tracker of Trump’s ratings, 032ba40d-55c3-42d6-bdf9-d6399ed7a2ce.html as well as a comparison to his predecessor’s, see: https:// projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ 51. Abby Phillip and Jenna Johnson, “Trump undercuts his aides by contradicting their statements,” The Washington 42. On Democrats internal squabbles, see Alan Greenblat’s “Are Post, 6 June 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ Democrats Headed for a McGovern Redux?” http://www. politics/trump-undercuts-his-aides-by-contradicting- politico.com/magazine/story/2017/10/09/democrats-mcgovern- their-statements/2017/06/06/1ae3155a-4ad2-11e7-9669- 1972-trump-nixon-2020-215687; on Bannon’s ongoing 250d0b15f83b_story.html?utm_term=.25415c147bb9 . insurgency within the GOP, see Robert Kagan’s, “Faster, Steve Bannon. Kill! Kill!” https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ 52. Sestanovich, “The Brilliant Incoherence of Trump’s faster-steve-bannon-kill-kill/2017/10/11/77bdf5c2-aea7-11e7- Foreign Policy.” The Atlantic, May 2017. be94-fabb0f1e9ffb_story.html?utm_term=.4bc231d9cb88 53. Ibid.
22 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
54. The Washington Post and Partnership for Public April 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/28/ Service, “Tracking how many key positions us/politics/transcript-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0. Trump has filled so far,”The Washington Post, 12 62. See James Mann’s “The Adults in the February 2018, https://www.washingtonpost.com/ Room,” The New York Review of Books, graphics/politics/trump-administration-appointee- October 26, 2017. http://www.nybooks.com/ tracker/database/?utm_term=.7cbc5ab8f625 articles/2017/10/26/trump-adult-supervision/. 55. Josh Dawsey, “White House aides lean on delays 63. See Joshua A. Geltzer and Jon Finer, “The Only and distractions to manage Trump,” Politico, 10 Constant is Trump,” The Atlantic, May 26, 2017: September 2017, https://www.politico.com/ https://www.theatlantic.com/international/ story/2017/10/09/trump-aides-guard-rails-243608. archive/2017/05/the-only-constant-is-trump/528048/. 56. Trump has attributed the origin of these techniques to 64. Susan B. Glasser, “Trump National Security Team the influence of Roy Cohn. See, Jonathan Mahler and Blindsided by NATO Speech,” Politico, June 5, 2017. Matt Flegenheimmer, “What Donald Trump Learned http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/06/05/ from Joseph McCarthy’s Right-Hand Man,” New trump-nato-speech-national-security-team-215227. York Times, June 21, 2016. https://www.nytimes. 65. Evan Osnos, “Making China Great Again,” The New com/2016/06/21/us/politics/donald-trump-roy-cohn. , January 8, 2018. https://www.newyorker. html; Marie Brenner’s “How Donald Trump and Roy Yorker com/magazine/2018/01/08/making-china-great-again. Cohn’s Ruthless Symbiosis Changed America,” Vanity Fair, August 2017. https://www.vanityfair.com/ 66. Suri, The Impossible Presidency, p. 289. news/2017/06/donald-trump-roy-cohn-relationship. 67. For Carter’s reading habits, see the Miller Center’s 57. Peter Wehner, “Why I Cannot Fall in Line Behind Oral History with Carter’s National Security Advisor Trump,” New York Times, January 21, 2017. https:// Zbigniew Brzezinski. https://millercenter.org/the- www.nytimes.com/2017/01/21/opinion/sunday/ presidency/presidential-oral-histories/zbigniew- why-i-cannot-fall-in-line-behind-trump.html. brzezinski-oral-history-assistant-president. 58. Thomas Wright, “Trump’s 19th Century Foreign 68. James Fallows, “The Passionless Presidency: The Policy,” Politico Magazine, January 20, 2016. Troubles with Jimmy Carter’s Administration,” https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/01/ The Atlantic, May 1979. https://www. donald-trump-foreign-policy-213546 theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1979/05/ 59. For a running catalogue of Trump’s falsehoods, the-passionless-presidency/308516. see David Leonhardt and Stuart A. Thompson, 69. On NSC reform, see Michèle Flournoy, “Nine “Trump’s Lies,” The New York Times, 14 Lessons for Navigating National Security,” March 25, December 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/ 2016. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/ interactive/2017/06/23/opinion/trumps-lies.html nine-lessons-for-navigating-national-security. 60. On these points and others, see Keren Yarhi-Milo’s 70. https://www.foreign.senate.gov/hearings/authority- insightful, “After Credibility: American Foreign to-order-the-use-of-nuclear-weapons-111417; Policy in the Trump Era,” Foreign Affairs, January/ https://www.vox.com/world/2017/11/17/16656856/ February 2018. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ trump-congress-nuclear-weapons-war. See also, articles/2017-12-12/after-credibility. For polling data Eric Schlosser, Command and Control: Nuclear abroad, see http://news.gallup.com/poll/225761/ Weapons, the Damascus Accident, and the Illusion world-approval-leadership-drops-new-low.aspx; of Safety (New York: Penguin Press, 2013). https://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/08/politics/ 71. David Frum, “The Problem with ‘Containing’ cnn-poll-trump-one-year-later/index.html. Donald Trump,” The Atlantic, October 9, 61. Donald J. Trump, “Transcript: Donald Trump’s 2017. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/ Foreign Policy Speech,” The New York Times, 27 archive/2017/10/corker-trump/542409.
23 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE TRUMP AND THE US PRESIDENCY: THE PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE OF AMERICA’S HIGHEST OFFICE
About the author
Dr Charles Edel Senior Fellow and Visiting Scholar United States Studies Centre
Charles Edel is a senior fellow and visiting scholar at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. Previously, he was associate professor of strategy and policy at the US Naval College, and served on the US Secretary of State’s policy planning staff from 2015 to 2017. In that role, he advised Secretary of State John Kerry on political and security issues in the Asia-Pacific region.
Charles worked at Peking University’s Center for International and Strategic Studies as a Henry Luce Scholar and was also awarded the Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship. He is the author of Nation Builder: John Quincy Adams and the Grand Strategy of the Republic. In addition to his scholarly publications, his writings have appeared in The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The American Interest, and various other outlets.
Charles holds a PhD in history from Yale University, and received a BA in classics from Yale College.
Acknowledgements
The author would like to thank those individuals who lent their time and expertise to this report. At the United States Studies Centre, Simon Jackman, Ashley Townshend, James Brown, Dougal Robinson, Brendan Thomas-Noone, Matilda Steward and Carla Owen along with two anonymous reviewers all provided comments and useful insights. Drew Sheldrick and Susan Beale did an expert job steering this report to publication. Special gratitude is extended to Jared Mondschein for his time, insights, and collaboration on this report.
The author would further like to thank the scholars who shared their insights discussing this paper, including Jeremi Suri, Jeffrey Engel, Melvyn Leffler, Fredrik Logevall, Stephen Sestanovich, William Inboden, Hal Brands, and James Wilson. The views, and errors, expressed are the author’s alone.
24 United States Studies Centre Institute Building (H03) The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Australia Phone: +61 2 9351 7249 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @ussc Website: ussc.edu.au