Increasing the resilience of Niue through a comprehensive approach to climate information services and early warning systems
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Niue United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
2 November 2017 Increasing the resilience of Niue through a comprehensive approach Project/Programme Title: to climate information services and early warning systems.
Country/Region: Niue
Accredited Entity: UNDP
National Designated Authority: Niue Premier’s Office PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 2 OF 5 PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 3 OF 5
A. Project / Programme Information Increasing the resilience of Niue through a comprehensive A.1. Project / programme title approach to climate information services and early warning systems. A.2. Project or programme Project
A.3. Country (ies) / region Niue A.4. National designated authority(ies) Niue Premier’s Office A.5. Accredited entity (NOT TO BE CHANGED) United Nations Development Programme Executing Entity: Government of Niue Project Management and A.6. Executing entity / beneficiary Coordination Unit Beneficiary: Niue Government, Private Sector, Communities A.7. Access modality (NOT TO BE CHANGED) Direct ☐ International ☒ A.8. Project size category (total investment, million USD) Micro (≤10) ☒
A.9. Mitigation / adaptation focus Adaptation ☒
A.10. Public or private Public Which of the following targeted results areas does the proposed project/programme address?
Increased resilience of: A.11. Results areas (mark all that apply) ☒ Most vulnerable people and communities (E.g. mitigation of operational risk associated with climate change – diversification of supply sources and supply chain management, relocation of manufacturing facilities and warehouses, etc.)
A.12. Project / programme life span ____5__ years __0____ months
Start: 01/08/2018 A.13. Estimated implementation start and end date End: 01/08/2023
B. Project/Programme Details
The Fund requires the following preliminary information in order to promptly assess the eligibility of project/programme investment.
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 4 OF 5 These requirements may vary depending on the nature of the project/programme. Summary
Niue is one of the most vulnerable countries on the planet to the ever-worsening impacts of climate change. Scientific assessments of observed and projected impacts in Niue depict vulnerability to tropical cyclones, rainfall variability and drought, sea level rise and coral bleaching. The only way for a country like Niue to survive these types of existential challenges is for decision-making to be based on scientifically-rigorous, standardized weather and climate data, and for early warning and preparedness for climate disasters to be well coordinated. In order for Niue to undertake such a paradigm shift, the country must improve its ability to collect and manage climate data; translate that data into usable information relevant to key vulnerable development sectors; and, have sufficient capacity to be able to incorporate these data into planning, policies and activities. This project proposes to support Niue to achieve these objectives, thereby building its resilience and reducing vulnerability.
Sub-Section 1: Strategic Context
Niue is an island country in the South Pacific Ocean, partway between Tonga, Samoa, and the Cook Islands. Its land area is 260 km2 and its population, predominantly Polynesian, is around 1,700 as of May 2017. Niue is one of the world's smallest countries and largest elevated coral atolls. The terrain consists of steep limestone cliffs along the coast with a central plateau rising to about 60m above sea level. The island has a tropical climate, with most rainfall occurring between November and April.
Climate change vulnerability. Niue has experienced an average of ten tropical cyclones per decade over the last four decades. Models suggest that frequency of tropical cyclones will B.1. Project / programme decrease in number but increase in intensity going forward (PACCSAP, 2015). Niue is largely description (including unprepared to deal with intense tropical cyclones, given the age and state of disrepair of most objectives) homes and other structures on the island and the location of most critical infrastructure along the coast. This is illustrated by the fact that Niue is still recovering from a 2004 category 5 cyclone, Cyclone Heta, which caused USD 37 million of damage, three times Niue’s GDP at the time, and effectively destroyed the capital city of Alofi and most of the island’s infrastructure (JNAP 2012, NDMCC, 2011). Also significant were the losses to community and culture. Heta destroyed the national museum and 90% of its collection (Barnett, 2008). Even before Heta, cyclone risk was commonly cited as an impetus for Niueans to emigrate to New Zealand and has virtually locked the country into perpetual aid dependence (Barker, 2000).
In addition to cyclone risk, rainfall records since 1905 show high levels of variability from year to year (PACSSAP, 2015). This long-term observation is supported by Met Service data from the last decade showing that annual rainfall ranged from 1276 mm to 3218 mm. Models suggest that this baseline variability will continue in the future with increased incidence of extreme rainfall events caused by climate change. Rainfall is expected to be less frequent but more intense during dry seasons, creating additional risk of erosion, coastal inundation, and damage to crops (JNAP 2012). According to officials at the Met Service, this rainfall variability has resulted in the loss of entire growing seasons and will make certain crops less tenable moving forward. For example, there has been only one successful mango growing season since 2004 (Ridge to Reef Program, 2016). Taro, Niue’s subsistence crop and primary export, is especially vulnerable given Niue’s thin soil. Taro begins to wither after only 2 weeks without rain (JNAP 2012).
Niue’s coastal waters have increased in both surface temperature and acidity levels (PACCSAP, 2015) as a result of climate change. Knock-on effects include increased incidence of coral bleaching and die-off and out-migration of fish species critical for food security, such as deep- water tuna, that are migrating to higher latitudes and away from Niuean waters. This development
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 5 OF 5 is particularly concerning to the GoN given that an average of 73% of households in Niue eat fish caught in Niuean waters, 56% of which is classified as subsistence fishing (Barnett 2008). Coupled with the resulting decrease in net productivity, and increase in variability of catches, it is increasingly likely that Niueans will be forced to replace local fish with more expensive and less nutritious imported food moving forward (Barnett 2008). Changes in current and warmer water temperatures may also induce further risks to marine life, such as ciguatera poisoning or increased invasive species such as jellyfish (JNAP 2012). These impacts combine with non- climate factors such as over-fishing of the reef flats in a context where demand for fish already far outstrips supply. Such changing conditions have resulted in reduced access to fish for food security and market-based income, reduced barrier protection (provided by reefs) against storm surges, and increased reliance on imported foods to meet island demand.
Satellite data indicate the sea level has risen near Niue by about 5 mm per year since 1993. This rate is higher than the global average of 2.8–3.6 mm per year (PACCSP, 2011). While sea level rise may not represent a pressing concern for most of the country given the elevation of the island, sea level rise does pose considerable risk to its few beaches and is causing degradation of the country’s single wharf (Barnett 2008). Overtime, beaches will cease to attract tourists, and the wharf will require more frequent upkeep and reconstruction as Niue’s only access point for the imports on which it depends for food, fuel and other supplies.
Country economic context The Niuean economy is extremely small and relies heavily on financial assistance from New Zealand, with which it enjoys a relationship of free association. An estimated 80% of Niue’s budget is foreign aid (Barnett, 2008). The public sector comprises Niue’s largest source of employment, with up to 80% of all adults earning wages from the government (Internet Niue, 2010). Other areas of the Niuean economy include tourism, agriculture, and fisheries, although food production remains largely for home consumption.
Since 2009, the Government of New Zealand has been expressing its desire to help Niue decrease its dependence on foreign aid and has begun directing its support toward jump-starting economic sectors for self reliance, such as the tourism industry (Reiser and Pforr, 2015, The Hall Report, 2009). These efforts have met mixed success given the immensity of dependence, even of the tourism industry, on imports and international transport. In response to New Zealand’s ongoing focus on propping up Niue’s tourism sector, such as its most recent goal of 20,000 visitors by 2020 (current rate has increased to nearly 10,000 tourists per year). In order to successfully and sustainably increase tourism, the country will have to reduce the climate risks it currently faces.
Should Niue exponentially grow its tourism sector as New Zealand aid draws down, it will require more climate-smart agriculture and fishing to meet increased demand, the safeguarding of its natural attractions from climatic effects such as inland and coastal erosion and marine resource die off, and an approach to tourism itself that is climate-proofed and environmentally sustainable. Strengthened climate information and early warning capabilities across government, private sector and communities promises to buttress the country with greater knowledge of climate-smart tourism, sustainable agriculture and fishing, as well as greater focus on what is now a nascent but growing eco-tourism movement.
Relevant policies and strategies. Critical policies and strategies developed by the GoN include the 2009 National Climate Change Policy (NCCP), which lays out six strategies: 1) awareness raising; 2) data collection, storage, sharing, and application; 3) adaptation; 4) mitigation, 5) governance and mainstreaming; and, 6) regional and international cooperation. In addition, the 2012 Joint National Action Plan (JNAP) for Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation includes overarching goals such as institutional strengthening for adaptation, improved public awareness, energy efficiency and security, and community resilience, among
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 6 OF 5 others. These goals and objectives are further developed in the 2014-2019 Niue National Strategic Plan (NNSP), which presents a vision for mainstreaming climate change considerations within sectoral lines, including policies such as the Forest Policy, the Niue National Energy Policy, and the Ecosystems Approach to Fisheries Management. Identified key sectors for climate mainstreaming include water resources, food security sectors, public health, and infrastructure.
As an active participant in the negotiation of the Paris Agreement, Niue announced the following guiding principles for climate resilience in its INDC: 1. Awareness Raising – To promote public awareness and improve stakeholder understanding of the causes and effects of climate change and climate variability and as well as on vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation responses; 2. Data Collection, Storage, Sharing, and Application – To improve and strengthen the collection, storage, management and application of climate data, including greenhouse gases and emissions, to monitor climate change patterns and its effects; 3. Adaptation – To develop effective adaptation responses and enhance adaptive capacity in order to protect livelihoods, natural resources and assets, and vulnerable areas to the impacts of climate change to all sectors; 4. Governance and Mainstreaming – To mainstream climate change issues into national development; and ii) establish an effective regulatory and institutional framework to facilitate the development and implementation of national responses to climate change; 5. Regional and International Cooperation – To ensure Niue obtains maximum benefits from relevant international and regional instruments relating to climate change and that it meets its commitments under them.
Sub-Section 2: Baseline Scenario and Investment
The GoN and its citizens have become aware of the aforementioned impacts of climate change both through everyday observation of changes to the climate as well as through scientific assessment. The GoN has taken important initial steps to address these risks by building political will around climate impacts, by establishing the policies and laws described above, and most importantly, by creating baseline capacity within the Met Service. While great gains have been made at expanding Met Service capacity and operations, there remain gaps in both capacity and resources at the Met Service in order to firmly act upon Niue’s climate change challenges. In addition, the capacity of the government to translate their political will and policies into implementation is also lacking. Efforts to date, as well as challenges, related to addressing the new climate reality are described below.
The core business of the Met Service includes the issuing of weather and marine forecasts and warnings; reporting meteorology and climatological observations; advising on threat of tropical cyclones and other natural disasters; and fulfilling commitments and obligations with inter- governmental organisations (Natcom, 2016). These functions are codified in the Niue Meteorological Act of 2013, and have been made possible by significant investments by the government and development partners.
As a result of being a member of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and maintaining its obligations, the Met Service carries out manual synoptic observations (3-hourly) and METAR reports (hourly), undertaken during normal working hours from 8am to 4pm on Monday to Friday. In addition, synoptic observations carried out outside of these working hours are transmitted through an automated system, the Synoptic Automatic Weather Station (Natcom, 2016). The ability of Met Service staff to interpret meteorological data has been made possible by the Pacific Island Climate Prediction Project (PICPP) and the Pacific Climate Change Science Programme (PCCSP). Through trainings associated with these projects, Met Service staff can now offer basic interpretation of weather and climatic data. Based on long term climate data investment, the Met Service also collects climatological information, such as rainfall, temperature and wind, which is
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 7 OF 5 recorded on a daily basis and digitised into the climate databases, Climate Computer (CLICOM), Climsoft, and basic Excel Spreadsheet. Through recent developments of the data management systems, the Met Service has upgraded to using a climate database called CLIDE (Climate Database for the Environment), that holds all digitized and updated climate data. This ability to collect and interpret data is critical for the country to be able to create a baseline on weather conditions over the years. It is this local data collection, in part, that has enabled the analysis of climate change impacts described in the preceding section.
Niue as a whole, and the Met Service in particular, also benefit from forecasting services provided by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC), Nadi, Fiji. Forecasting services for severe weather warnings, public, aviation and marine forecasts are received regularly by the Niue Met Service from the RSMC. As cyclone risk increases with climate change, were it not for the severe weather monitoring provided by the RSMC, Niue would be even more vulnerable than it currently is. This said, Niue does not rely exclusively on the RSMC for weather forecasts. As a result of the Pacific International Desk Training (PITD), the Niue Met Service produces a three-day forecast for the local community. Dissemination of these forecasts for the general public is through the Broadcasting Corporation of Niue (BCN), government staff and through Non-Government Organisations (NGO).
Through the Pacific-Australia Climate Science and Adaptation Program (PACCSAP) and the Climate and Oceans Support Program in the Pacific (COSPPAC) projects, the Met Service has been able to access web-based tools and build the basis for access to tropical cyclone portals, climate data portals, sea level data and other climate related products and education and awareness materials. In addition, a Niue Climate Outlook (NCO) newsletter is issued monthly by the Met Service using a program called the Seasonal Climate Outlook for Pacific Island Countries (SCOPIC). Through support from COSPPAC, the Met Service has begun to record data collected through traditional knowledge practices. The hope is that these data will eventually be incorporated into weather and climate forecasting. Nevertheless, even a concerted focus on harnessing traditional knowledge would be unable to keep pace with the comparatively rapid onset of climate change-induced factors.
The Met Service also plays an important role in times of climate-related disasters, providing weather warning advice to the Niue Disaster Council (NDC), an executive council led by the Chairperson, Secretary of Government (SoG) who takes the lead for the Government of Niue in issuing action alerts. This includes further coordination with Director Generals (DG) of government and the Broadcasting Corporation of Niue (BCN). The colour coded system of Blue Alert (“approaching”), Yellow Alert (“near”), and Red Alert (“hit”) is executed according to the strength of the Tropical Cyclone. The Met Service also hosts Niue’s Emergency Operations Centre when a cyclone is approaching. The NDC comprises of SoG, Chief of Police, National Disaster Management Officer (NDMO) and Director of Met Service. CoP and NDMO coordinates disaster response through the engagement of the Ministry of Infrastructure – Departments of Utilities (Water, Building Divisions), Transport (Rescue Fire, Outside Services, Heavy Plant), Telecom Niue, Niue Power and Civil Quarry as required.
Aside from these significant investments in Met Service capacity, the government has also begun to advance another foundational element for building climate resilience: mainstreaming the consideration of climate risk across development sectors. As described in the strategic context section above, the 2009 National Climate Change Policy, the 2014-2019 Niue National Strategic Plan (NNSP), Niue’s 2015 Nationally Determined Contribution to the Paris Agreement, and Niue’s Second National Communication 2016 all highlight mainstreaming as a key priority, with the NNSP specifically naming water resources, food security sectors, public health, and infrastructure as priority sectors for mainstreaming. The GoN’s desire for robust policy mainstreaming reflects its deepening concern over the advent of changes to rainfall and drought patterns, oceanic conditions, average temperatures, and cyclone risk –changes that would prove economically
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 8 OF 5 overwhelming without aggressive mainstreaming and integrative approaches.
Although the above investments and intention setting have made inroads in building the climate resilience of the country, Niue is now positioned at a critical juncture where it would benefit from a project that ties together disparate climate resilience efforts together into a holistic concept. As described in Section D.2. Paradigm Shift Potential, a comprehensive approach that addresses all angles of climate information and early warning services is now needed in order to stage more aggressive climate resilience measures in the future. This GCF project intends to build upon previous investments in order to create this comprehensive approach. However, there are challenges that would have to be addressed in order to do this. These challenges include:
1. Limited collection of climate and weather data. At present, there is only one automatic weather station on the island, and this station collects data on only limited variables. Therefore the country does not collect data on variables such as visibility, cloud height and wave height, all of which are critical for informing citizens, tourists and airline officials about conditions that could be of concern. Furthermore, the lack of multiple weather stations limits the relevance of the data collected for other parts of the island and might paint a skewed picture, over time, of the weather and climate in Niue. Finally, weather and climate data is collected only during work hours. This means that any meteorological phenomena that occur outside normal working hours do not necessarily get registered in the country’s data collection system. 2. Limited telecommunication capacity of Niue Met Service. While Niue is able to access satellite data to monitor tropical cyclones and other low pressure systems, and can receive forecasting information from the RMSC, the telecommunications capabilities of the Met Service are so limited that real time monitoring of such systems is often a challenge. The telecommunication constraints extend to also limit the ability of the Met Service and other agencies engaged in disaster preparedness and response (Met Service, broadcasting company, police, fire, paramedics) to effectively communicate with subnational governments and communities in parts of the island other than Alofi, the capital. 3. Lack of an adequate physical space to house the Met Service. The current Met Service space cannot support the number of staff and type of equipment necessary for Niue to collect, analyze and use weather and climate data. In addition, the Met Service (along with the country’s ad-hoc Emergency Operations Centre) is located in a building that cannot withstand a cyclone of a high magnitude, putting Niue’s ability to manage a climate emergency into question. 4. Lack of sufficient staff capacity in the Met Service, both in terms of number of staff and in terms of education and training. As described above, weather data is collected only during normal work hours because of limited staff availability. In addition, current staff do not have the training to be able to adequately analyze collected data to be able to produce climate information products that would be of use to end-users. 5. Inability of line ministries to use weather and climate data collected to inform policies, plans and activities. While the government has committed to mainstreaming climate risk consideration across its functions, government staff from line ministries exhibit knowledge and capacity gaps in terms of how climate information could be used to improve their policies, plans and activities related to key development sectors, eg, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, infrastructure, etc. 6. Inability of private sector and communities to use climate information to make climate-smart decisions related to food security, water security, fire risk, tourism development, etc. There is little engagement by the government with communities in relation to addressing climate risks, and as a result, communities and individuals have limited awareness of climate change vulnerabilities and resilience practices.
In order for Niue to effectively reduce its vulnerability, and enhance its resilience and adaptive
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 9 OF 5 capacity, the aforementioned gaps must be addressed. The GCF project proposes to do just that, as described in the next section.
Sub-Section 3: Project/Programme Description
The objective of the project is to build the resilience of the country of Niue, to anticipated extreme and slow onset events, through improved and expanded collection, analysis and use of climate and weather data for strengthened early warning and climate-resilient decision-making. The Government of Niue envisages three main outputs to achieve this objective and will build on the aforementioned projects and investments, seeking to address the remaining challenges. The outputs are:
Output 1: Weather and climate information networks expanded and enhanced. This output will focus on expansion of networks that generate weather and climate data, as well as telecommunication capacity, for improved early warnings and climate information services. While the data currently collected is a helpful baseline for providing basic forecasts and warnings, with expanded data collection, Niue would be able to provide a much more nuanced and tailored view of weather, climate variability and climate change. The project would involve: purchase and installation of additional equipment to measure weather and climate variables, such as an additional automatic weather station, telemetric rain gauges, ceilometer, hygrometer, wave rider buoy, etc.
In addition, because the Met Service’s current telecommunication capacity limits its ability to track storms (and thus provide warnings) in a fully real-time manner, the project will also involve the purchase and installation of software and telecommunication system components needed for accessing global satellite imagery, data from global and regional monitoring systems, and for communicating increased risk associated with impending hazards. As a result, Niue’s ability to make use of regional data and platforms will be enhanced.
This output would also involve efforts to feed data produced and collected in Niue into regional data sharing systems, including those managed through the World Meteorological Organization, so that Niue data could be of benefit to others in the region or globally.
Training of staff in use of new equipment, as well as dissemination of collected weather and climate data, is discussed as part of Output 3 below.,
Output 2: Construction of physical space for Met Service and community training. While expansion of the networks to generate climate and weather data will go a long way in improving the evidence base for decision-making, one of the other major challenges Niue faces in terms of using weather and climate data is the lack of an adequate physical space to house the Met Service (including some of the new equipment described above and additional Met Service staff described in number 3 below). While the existing Met Service location is useful, given its proximity to the country’s only automatic weather station as described in the baseline scenario section, the current space is insufficient for an effective, modern Met Service. Addressing the need for an additional physical space for the Met Service would be leveraged in this project to further build the capacity of the government to address disaster preparedness needs by co- locating expanded Met Service space with other government disaster preparedness and response agencies (police, fire, paramedics), given the relationship between the Met Service and these other agencies during disaster response, and because the current location of the Met Service and disaster response agencies is highly vulnerable to cyclone destruction. The Government of Niue has already secured funds from domestic budgets and commitments from bilateral donors to construct a new, category 5 cyclone-resistant, environmental efficient building on a currently vacant public lot to house disaster preparedness and response agencies. Through this project, using GCF funds, the government’s vision for this Emergency Operations Centre
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 10 OF 5 (EOC) will be expanded. The project will cover the additional construction costs associated with expanding the EOC space to be able to also accommodate the expanded Met Service capacity and equipment. The synergies created by this coupling go beyond the cost savings associated with limiting new construction to just one building; the expansion of the emergency services centre to include the Met Service means better integration of the Met Service, and their crucial early warning capacity, with other disaster management agencies.
In addition, given the final focus of the project, described below, on enabling other government agencies, the private sector and communities to use climate information and early warning systems to inform decision-making, the expanded Met Service location and EOC will be co- located with a small, GCF-supported climate training centre. The training centre will serve as a hub for disseminating climate information to a variety of stakeholders, including community members, and training them on how to apply climate information to their everyday activities. Not only would climate expertise be concentrated in the training centre (in the form of some of the Met Service staff and equipment), but the centre would also be furnished with basic audio-visual equipment needed to facilitate training and learning. Such a location does not currently exist in Niue. The combination of these three purposes (expanded Met Service, centralized emergency management services, and training and capacity building) will be combined into the physical form of the Niue Climate Resilience Centre. GCF funds will cover only the portion of construction related to the expanded Met Service and training centre, approximately half the total cost of the Climate Resilience Centre. Operations and maintenance of the centre, as described in the project sustainability section below, will be covered through Niue’s annual budgeting process.
Output 3: Capacity of GoN and community stakeholders to interpret, use, and disseminate climate information increased. The final major challenge Niue faces in relation to advancing climate-resilient decision-making is a lack of training and capacity to analyze data collected, translate the data into information relevant for multiple audiences, and for those audiences to apply the information in their everyday activities. In order to overcome these barriers, increased capacity is needed on multiple fronts. GCF funding would be used to: ---- Train current Met Service staff and hire and train additional Met Service staff in state of the art methods for climate information services and early warning systems related to key hazards and priority development sectors. These staff will be trained to use the new equipment described in Output 1 and will also be trained to develop templates for and produce end-user information products relevant for priority sectors. ---- Provide intensive, guided trainings for government staff of key development sector line ministries, e.g., agriculture, tourism, fisheries, infrastructure and disaster management, on incorporating climate information and early warning systems into planning, policies and activities. A focus of this training will be on increasing the baseline level of climate understanding among relevant ministries, and curricula will be designed in a way that allows non-technical staff to understand and make use of fundamentally technical data. ---- Provide hands-on support to select line ministries, e.g., agriculture, tourism, fisheries, infrastructure, to update their sectoral strategies to take climate information into account. For example, the Agriculture Department will be able to adjust its plans and strategies, including its extension efforts, based on likely shifts in rainfall and temperature. In addition, the project will provide direct support for ministries to create dissemination channels for the end-user climate information products produced by the Met Service. These channels might range from webpages to mobile networks to expanded community extension services. ---- Establish government-led, sector-specific training programs for various private sector entities, e.g., the Tourism Board, and to communities on integrating climate risk information into daily activities. Where relevant, traditional knowledge about weather and climate would be integrated into these training programs. The Niue Climate Resilience Centre training facility mentioned in Output 2 would be the principal location for conducting training activities, as the facility will be in a central location that all communities would be able to access. In addition, where possible, the community training efforts will take advantage of the existing village-level governments, given the
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 11 OF 5 authority and social capital they posses. This capacity building work will focus in particular on women and other vulnerable populations. These trainings would allow community members to understand how, for example, climate change will impact their fishing practices. Private sector representatives involved in the tourism industry would begin to understand how their buildings should be constructed to deal with drought and cyclone impacts.
While all three of the aforementioned outputs would, on their own, go a long way in improving the resilience of Niue, the combination of the three will allow Niue to transform its decision-making process to truly take evidence of climate change into account in its decision-making, allowing the country to better safeguard the hard-won development gains it has secured over the years.
The following table cross-references the challenges described in section B.1.2 (Baseline Scenario) with the Outputs described above.
Output produced vs. Challenges addressed
United Nations Development Programme has been selected by the Government of Niue as the Accredited Entity (AE) for this Green Climate Fund project. UNDP was accredited to the GCF in 2015. UNDP Multi Country Office (MCO) based in Samoa covers four countries in the Pacific: Cook Islands, Niue, Samoa and Tokelau. UNDP MCO Samoa has experience in engineering paradigm shifts in the management of terrestrial and marine protection sites under the Global Environment Facility-funded “Ridge to Reef” project; in planning and governance process under the “PACC” (Pacific Adaptation to Climate Change) project and in transitioning to low carbon economies under the Pacific Islands Green Gas Abatement through Renewable Energy project. This, combined with the recent acceptance of UNDP MCO Samoa’s own USD 65.7 million GCF proposal further B.2. Background information supports the Government of Niue’s decision to select UNDP as its AE. As AE, UNDP will conduct on project/programme the Quality Assurance of the project including management of funds, programme quality sponsor assurance, fiduciary risk management and timely delivery of financial and programme reports. The project in Niue will be supported by the UNDP MCO Samoa office, the Regional Hub in Bangkok and HQ. UNDP MCO Samoa’s office has a number of staff experienced in the fields of climate change adaptation.
The project will be implemented under UNDP’s National Implementation Modality (NIM) mechanism with the National Implementing Partner / Executing Entity as the Government of Niue’s Project Management and Coordination Unit (PMCU), a department under the Premier’s office. Established in 2014, the purpose of the PMCU is to provide centralized project management service dedicated to coordinating project management activities for all bilateral and multilateral-
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 12 OF 5 funded projects in Niue through effective stakeholder relationships. Given this charge, the PMCU has managed implementation of several multi-million dollar environment, infrastructure and community development projects, including the ones mentioned above, The PMCU is also mandated to serve as Niue’s focal point for the Green Climate Fund.
Given this project’s co-finance from the European Development Fund, 10th window (to be implemented by Secretariat of the Pacific Community) and the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, it should be noted that all project partners (GoN, UNDP, European Commission, SPC and NZ MFAT) have a long history of successful collaboration. The relationships that have been built over time will allow for seamless implementation of the project.
At this point, potential conflicts of interest between this project and other GoN GCF projects are not an issue, as this project would be the first GoN project supported by the GCF.
Not applicable. The public goods nature of the proposed project entails no revenue-generation or B.3. Market overview cost-recovery.
This project will follow standard procedures agreed between the Government of Niue and UNDP. The National Implementation Modality will be adopted, providing full ownership to the government, with UNDP ensuring project objectives are met through an assurance role. A project management unit will be established to implement the project on a daily basis.
All procurement conducted by the Government of Niue will adhere to government procedures and will be subject to government policies including tax. Procurement conducted by UNDP, as agreed B.4. Regulation, taxation and beforehand with the government (especially regarding international procurement) will be exempt insurance of tax duties. Otherwise, all procurement in country is subject to relevant tax policies, for example services and goods procured by third party partners (companies and NGOs contracted through the project).
The Government of Niue is the owner of the land on which the Niue Climate Resilience Centre will be constructed, and access to the parcel is through publicly owned roads. The Government is able to produce the title for the parcel.
The project will be implemented following UNDP’s National Implementation Modality (NIM), according to the Standard Basic Assistance Agreement between UNDP and the Government of Niue, the Country Programme Action Plan (CPAP), and as policies and procedures outlined in the UNDP POPP (see https://info.undp.org/global/popp/ppm/Pages/Defining-a-Project.aspx) The Implementing Partner for this project is the Government of Niue Project Management and Coordination Unit (PMCU). PMCU is accountable to UNDP for managing the project, including the monitoring and evaluation of project interventions, achieving project outcomes, and for the effective use of UNDP resources. The following parties have entered into agreements with B.5. Implementation PMCU to assist in successfully delivering project outcomes and are directly accountable to arrangements PMCU as outlined in the terms of their agreement: Ministry of Natural Resources (including the Met Service and Department of the Environment); Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications, Utilities, Transport; Treasury Department; Crown Law; the National Disaster Council; and, Police Department.
The Project Board is comprised of the following organisations: - Secretary of Government - Treasury - Financial Secretary - Ministry of Natural Resources - Director General - Ministry of Infrastructure - Director General
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 13 OF 5 - Ministry of Social Services - Director General - Crown Law - Attorney General The project board may also include a community representative and / or business representative given the central focus of the project of building the capacity of these groups to use climate data in decision-making. The Project Board is responsible for making, by consensus, management decisions when guidance is required by the Project Manager. Project Board decisions will be made in accordance with standards that shall ensure management for development results, best value money, fairness, integrity, transparency and effective international competition. In case a consensus cannot be reached within the Board, final decision shall rest with the UNDP Programme Manager. The Project Board will meet regularly to ensure smooth implementation of the project. The Project Manager will run the project on a day-to-day basis on behalf of PMCU within the constraints laid down by the Project Board. The Project Manager function will end when the final project terminal evaluation report and other documentation required by the GCF and UNDP, has been completed and submitted to UNDP. The Project Manager is responsible for day-to-day management and decision-making for the project. The Project Manager’s prime responsibility is to ensure that the project produces the results specified in the project document, to the required standard of quality and within the specified constraints of time and cost.
Additional details about the project’s management structure, including the specific roles each board member will play will be further elaborated in the full proposal.
Project timeline: Year 1: -Given the centrality of the Climate Resilience Centre in implementation of the project, both for housing expanded Met Service capacity and for serving as a training centre for the community, efforts toward construction of the centre will start immediately with project kick-off, focusing initially on attaining all necessary permits and having contracts in place. It is estimated that the centre construction will take approximately 1 year to complete. - In parallel, additional Met Service equipment will be purchased and installed, and recruiting and training of additional Met Service staff will occur. Year 2: -The Climate Resilience Centre construction will be completed, and the centre will be inaugurated. The expanded Met Service capacity and equipment will be relocated there, along with Niue Emergency Service agencies, e.g., police, fire, emergency response. -Met Service training and capacity to analyze climate data and produce actionable information will continue to be built. - The training program for government staff, private sector stakeholders and communities will be developed, focusing on curricula development, pedagogical approach, etc., . Year 3: -Work with line ministries to integrate climate information into sectoral plans will kick off. - Training and capacity building programs – with continued focus on Met Service and new focus on other government agencies Year 4: -Work with line ministries to integrate climate information into sectoral plans continues. - Training and capacity building program continues, with program focus expanded to include private sector and communities, building on lessons learned from training of government staff..
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 14 OF 5 Year 5: - Continued work with line ministries to integrate climate information into sectoral plans. - Training and capacity building program continues. - Financial close of the project and handover of activities to GoN occurs
The following table describes the aforementioned timeline based on project outputs
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
Output 1
Met Service equipment X X X X purchase
Output 2
Permits & contracts for centre X X construction
Centre construction X X X X
Relocation of Met Service & other X X agencies
Output 3
Hiring Met Service X X X staff
Training Met X X X X X X X X Service staff
Curricula development & X X X X training planning
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 15 OF 5
Training X X X X X X X X Government staff
Integrate climate information into X X X X X X X X X X plans
Training private X X X X X X sector stakeholders
Training X X X X X X X X communities
Project financial X X close
Contractual arrangements: Construction and supervision methodology, as well as post-construction operational arrangements, with key contractual agreements will be developed for the full proposal.
C. Financing / Cost Information Funds are being requested by the Government of Niue in the form of grants, given the “public good” nature of the proposed climate information services / early warning system investments. It is highly unlikely that revenue streams will occur from these investments and hence loans or non- grant instruments will not be feasible. The GCF grant resources will be directed towards three key interconnected outputs, listed in the table below, each of which have been requested by the Government of Niue to enable transformative, nation-wide climate-resilient development. Tentative breakdown of costs per component are as follows:
As described in section C.2, the GoN has secured co-finance commitments from the European Development Fund (EDF), 10th window, and from the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade in relation to Output 1.2. The EDF funds are stipulated to be a grant for the construction of the Niue Emergency Operations Centre, and the MFAT funds are stipulated to be C.1. Description of financial a grant for technical assistance related to the construction project, either in the form of elements of the project / engineering support or project management. The funds requested from GCF for OUtput 1.2 programme would be used exclusively for expanding the EDF10 and MFAT funded Emergency Operations Centre to also include space for the expanded Met Service and a community training centre (Thus, creating the Niue Climate Resilience Centre). In addition, while not listed in C.2 as co- finance, the GoN commits to providing land and labor valued at USD 800,000 in order to enable construction of the Climate Resilience Centre.
Amount Currency of Amount Local Component Output disbursement currency Component 1: Output 1 NZD Improved Weather and USD collection, climate analysis and information 2.5M 3.45M
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 16 OF 5 use of climate networks and weather expanded and data for enhanced strengthened Output 1.1: early warning Purchase and and climate- installation of resilient additional decision- equipment to USD making measure weather and climate variables 1.4M Output 1.2 Purchase and installation of USD software and telecom systems components 1.1M Output 2 NZD Construction of physical space for USD Met Service and community training 1.5M 2.03M Output 2.1 Permits and contracts for USD centre construction 150,000 Output 2.2 Centre construction (GCF funds would be used to USD cover the portion that would be used for Met Service and training centre) 1.15M Output 2.3 Relocation of certain Met Service functions USD and emergency operations agencies 200,000 Output 3 NZD Capacity of GoN and community stakeholders to USD interpret, use, and disseminate climate 3M 4.05
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 17 OF 5 information increased Output 3.1 Salaries of Met USD Service staff hired through project 500,000 Output 3.2 Curricula development and USD training for Met Service staff – existing and new 750,000 Output 3.3 Curricula development and USD training of other Government staff 350,000 Output 3.4 Support to line Ministries for USD integrating climate into sectoral plans 1M Output 3.5 Curricula development and training of private USD sector and community stakeholders 400,000 7M USD 9.53M NZD
Financial Currenc C.2. Project Amount Tenor Pricing financing Instrument y information Total project financing 7.7M USD (a) = (b) + (c)
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 18 OF 5
( ) % ( ) years ( ) % ( ) years ( ) % (b) Requested 7M USD (vi) Grants * IRR GCF amount
Total Requested 7M USD (i+ii+iii+iv+v+vi)
(c) Co- Financial Seniorit financing Amount Currency Name of Institution Instrument y
Exclusively for construction costs European Development associated USD with the Niue Grant 600,000 Fund, 10 Options Climate USD Grant (in kind) 100,000 NZ MFAT… Options Resilience
Centre (Output
2).
Lead financing institution: Green Climate Fund
(d) Covenants N/A
(e) Conditions precedent to N/A disbursement
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 19 OF 5
D. Expected Performance against Investment Criteria
Please explain the potential of the Project/Programme to achieve the Fund’s six investment criteria as listed below. Beneficiaries
The project is anticipated to directly benefit the entire Niuean population (over 1,700 people), as trainings will be tailored to reach every segment of this small society, including women artisan weavers, agricultural producers, small scale fisherpeople, etc. In addition, the project will indirectly benefit the 10,000 annual visitors to Niue, as they will have increased access to sector-specific weather forecasts to help plan their daily activities as well as access to early warning information in the case of a potential hazard.
Impact level results
The project will focus on achieving Fund Level Impact 1.0: Increased resilience and enhanced livelihoods of the most vulnerable people, communities, and regions. The project will elevate the GoN’s capacity to both generate nation-wide information on weather and climate and enable the use of this information for making more resilient plans, policies and activities in critical development sectors. For instance, the government’s agricultural development activities will be informed by an understanding of current and evolving climate conditions, and the government’s building codes will be updated to reflect present and anticipated cyclone risk and water availability. Comparable efforts (EWS, climate information, and community-based DRM) have been effective in saving lives, assets, and livelihoods. Advanced EWS systems are estimated to be 100% effective in reducing loss of life by cyclones (Teisberg and Weiher D.1. Climate impact potential (2009). [Potential to achieve the
GCF's objectives and results] Outcome level results
As described below, the following outcomes will be achieved by executing the three components of the proposed project: 1) Weather and climate information networks expanded and enhanced; 2) Construction of physical space for Met Service and community training; and, 3) Capacity of GoN and community stakeholders to interpret, use, and disseminate climate information increased.
This project will contribute directly to several Fund Level Outcomes, such as Primary Outcome 6.0: Increased generation and use of climate information in decision-making. The project will enable additional weather and climate data to be collected, including data on variables such as visibility and wave height, and in more than one part of the country. This will allow for a more nuanced understanding of Niue’s weather and climate. In addition, the capacity of the Met Service to translate such data into end-user products will be expanded through increased staffing and training of staff in state of the art climate information systems. Finally, the ability of sectoral ministries, the private sector and communities to use these products to adjust their currently climate-vulnerable practices will be supported. All of these functions will be supported by creating the physical space necessary to expand Met Service capacity and provide training to various stakeholders.
Additionally, this project will directly contribute to Outcome 7.0: Strengthened adaptive capacity
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 20 OF 5 and reduced exposure to climate risks. With newfound knowledge about climate risks and how to address them, communities, the private sector and government line ministries will be equipped with additional capacity to adapt to current and future climate change. For example, agriculturalists, through training on use of climate information, will have new strategies to deal with the rainfall variability that currently leads to crop losses. In addition, every male and female in Niue will benefit from the strengthened early warning system that will result from the project. The project will, for instance, ensure that all citizens have access to up to the minute alerts about approaching storms and about drought- and temperature-related fire risks.
Outcome 8.0: Strengthened awareness of climate threats and risk-reduction processes will also show visible progress under this project. The Climate Resilience Centre’s training function will focus on educating various stakeholders on climate threats by virtue of presenting climate information products and how to apply those products to make changes in business as usual practices. All efforts will be made to ensure that all females and males become aware of climate threats and risk-reduction practices through the training program by ensuring that organizations, such as the Youth Council and the Women’s Business Council, are engaged in developing and implementing trainings
There are several factors that have primed the country of Niue to realize maximum benefit from the type of project that this proposal presents. As described in B.1.2 Baseline Scenario, Niue has benefited from several investments to strengthen Met Service capacity in collecting data and offering basic interpretations of weather and climate information. These investments create an important baseline upon which Niue now must build in order to address the climate change impacts it is experiencing and that it will continue to face in the future. Dealing with these changes will require a more sophisticated and agile Met Service than past efforts have achieved to date, as well as more proactive use of climate information in government decision- making. Though the GoN recognizes the effects of climate change on the land and shores of Niue with increasingly grave concern (variability of rain and drought, oceanic conditions, etc.), they still have much progress to make in achieving their vision for climate mainstreaming across sectors and fully engaging with all layers of the community (local government, traditional practices, private sector, etc.) on building resilience. A substantial part of this story is the lack of adequate climate data and information services to act upon. Though Niuean society knows that climate change is becoming a greater challenge overall, they will require a sustainable means of generating, analyzing, and using detailed climate information in order to D.2. Paradigm shift potential avoid great economic losses and hardship in the future. The success of this project will mean [Potential to catalyze impact that the GoN will have the means to evaluate present and future climate-related changes and beyond a one-off project or the ability to design and implement informed approaches to preventing or managing them, programme investment] across sectors.
This project will mark a paradigm shift for Niue, as it will strengthen the fundamental bedrock for the country to effectively manage climate risk: strong climate information services and early warning coordination. Up until now, adaptation efforts have been valuable but ad-hoc, and because of the constraints described above, government decision-making has not systematically addressed the perhaps greatest threats to the country's stability and prosperity: climate variability and change. It is by sheer chance that, since the Category 5 Cyclone Heta in 2004, a major climate event has not struck Niue and exposed the country’s continued extreme vulnerability. Having effective climate information services will equip the GoN with the necessary tools and knowledge to make informed decisions, expand upon its climate mainstreaming policies, execute policies into meaningful action cross-sectorally, and close the institutional gaps related to effective early warning capacity. As a result, a more knowledgeable government will be able to apply more extensive and sophisticated climate information to planning, policies, public awareness, and interventions nationwide.
Additionally, the project will facilitate linkages between the government and communities.
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 21 OF 5 Training programs will involve local NGOs such as the Women in Business Council and the National Women’s Council to mainstream climate adaptation techniques in traditional practices and artisan livelihoods such as basket weaving. They will also include NGOs such as the National Youth Council on launching educational programs and field trips for youth on topics such as biodiversity and climate science.
Potential to scale and replicate. While the project will focus on key development sectors such as agriculture, tourism, infrastructure and disaster management, it can be replicated over time in other sectors, such as education and energy, given the sustainable capacity that will be built within government and the cross-cutting nature of climate information that will become available as a result of the project. For example, previous and ongoing projects in Niue are commonly hampered by either lack of adequate climate information to act on, or by the lack of capacity and communication infrastructure to utilize such information effectively. This project’s focus on climate information services and coordination is anticipated to unlock and in some cases, increase the potential gains afforded by complementary projects. Moreover, the ability to harness more extensive, accurate, and sophisticated climate information will also have amplifying effects on aspects of Niue’s climate change governance that the project many not cause directly, such as future policy making, initiatives, and/or further community engagement beyond the project’s lifecycle. The national capacity that will be built through the project will also allow for refinement of activities, based on evolving weather and climate data, overtime.
With robust and sustainable climate information infrastructure in place, the GoN will also be equipped to inform the process of mainstreaming climate change across development sectors, particularly in formulating upcoming national level policy refreshes (JNAP, NCCP), as well as in annual planning at the ministry and down to the village level (agricultural extension services, water harvesting, etc.). These efforts will contribute to an enabling environment for further adaptation and climate resilience efforts in the future.
Given that nearly a quarter of the Niuean population already works for the government at the sectoral level and nearly everyone Niuean is at least related to a government employee, having far greater access to and quality of climate information (e.g. future risks to prepare for) promises to have a transformative effect on knowledge and learning. This will also be manifested in the introduction of the Climate Resilience Center, which will serve as an information hub for the community and host workshops and events to educate citizens.
While focused on the climate change risks faced by the country, the proposed GCF project will also produce a number of sustainable development co-benefits in support of the country’s climate resilient development. Aside from Sustainable Development Goal 13 (Climate Action), the proposed work on improved and expanded collection, analysis and use of climate and weather data for strengthened early warning and climate resilient policies, plans and decision making would also support Niue to achieve SDG 11: making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable. The project’s activities specifically relate to target 11B: by 2020, substantially increase the number of cities and human settlements adopting and D.3. Sustainable development implementing integrated policies and plans towards inclusion, resource efficiency, mitigation potential and adaptation to climate change, resilience to disasters, and develop and implement, in line [Potential to provide wider with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, holistic disaster risk development co-benefits] management at all levels.
This project will also contribute indirectly to several other SDGs including SDG 5: achieving gender equality and empowering all women and girls through linkages created between civil society and government. Linkages will be created by integrating climate change adaptation measures into traditional practices of artisans and entrepreneurs as well as the activities of the Women in Business Council. Additionally, the project will support achievement of SDG 15: Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems through adjusted and
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 22 OF 5 climate-informed agricultural practices that result in reduced production loss, land degradation loss and ecosystem benefits loss.
On an economy-wide level, benefits will be derived from the avoided economic losses related to climate induced disasters. In addition, many Niuean citizens will receive training in climate- resilient practices, which will strengthen livelihoods and make them better prepared for relevant jobs across the Pacific.
The key social benefits of this project relate to the avoidance of loss of lives and damage to social infrastructure. Loss of life is avoided as early warning coordination and capacity of the government is improved and as laws, such as the Building Code, are updated to avoid construction of climate vulnerable infrastructure. This is achieved through working directly with sectoral end users and local communities that play a pivotal role in ensuring that future developments and public infrastructure such as roads, bridges, ports and airports are climate resilient.
The project’s impact is anticipated to yield a number of knock-on co-benefits for the country. Illustrative examples may include: ● Refinement of policies and laws, such as the building code, to account for climate impacts. ● Increased demand among high value crop (vanilla bean, nonu tree) producers for drought or flood tolerant varieties; climate-informed government agricultural extension services in place to support demand for capacity building of producers. ● Increased resilience of key infrastructure, assets and reduction in fire losses, due to increased warnings about risks and awareness of risk reduction behaviours. ● Disaster management agencies are well-enough prepared that they are able to meet their “not one life lost” goal for the next extreme weather event. As described in Section D.1, this project is anticipated to benefit the whole of the Niuean population (1,700 people). The following information on needs of the recipient was, in part, gathered through extensive consultations with officials of the GoN, Met Services, as well as representatives of donor-funded projects, and civil society (Chamber of Commerce, National Youth Council, private sector actors, etc.).
Climate risks and exposure. As one of the world’s least populated island nations with extreme limitations to its economic growth, Niue is highly exposed to the consequences of climate change across all sectors. As detailed in Section B.1. Strategic Context, Niue’s vulnerabilities include: cyclone vulnerability, ocean acidification, depletion and out-migration of fish stocks, sea level rise, vulnerability to drought and extreme rainfall events, among others. These D.4. Needs of recipient vulnerabilities are exacerbated by Niue’s weak climate governance, limited institutional [Vulnerability to climate capacity, and lack of coordination among government sectors to handle climate change effects change and financing needs or build up resilience. of the recipients] Economic isolation and fiscal gaps. Niue chronically relies on foreign aid to close its fiscal gaps due to considerable barriers to its own economic growth. These barriers relate largely to the island’s isolation. The remote location means that transport costs are very high and physical connectivity is very limited. Air transportation, primarily used for passengers rather than cargo, consists of two flights per week between Alofi and Auckland, thereby limiting the flow of tourists and goods that could yield economic development benefits. Nearly all supplies are imported from New Zealand and arrive by a cargo ship that goes to Niue approximately once in four weeks. The cargo includes diesel fuel, Niue’s primary source of electricity generation, which comprises an estimated 25% of all of its imports. In 2004, Niue paid eight times as much to import just fuel as it earned from exports (Barnett 2008). During consultations, members of the Chamber of Commerce and the Department of Transport each noted the Niue’s vulnerability relate in part to over-reliance on these shipments, recalling instances where delayed
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 23 OF 5 shipments have caused shortages in basic supplies and staple foods such as bread. Such scenarios took a toll on the local population as well as the tourism industry. Niue’s extreme small size, both in terms of landmass and population, means that human resources are limited, local market demand is limited, and the tax base from which to fund public works is very small. The few exports that Niue does make are almost exclusively purchased by New Zealand (96%; Barnett 2008). Other barriers include poor and aging infrastructure, limited capacity to govern, limited natural resources, and the absence of local financial capital for development (Reiser and Pforr, 2015). In addition, Niue is unable to access loans from international entities. All of these factors lead to a high degree of reliance on foreign aid, and other support, again mainly from New Zealand. Foreign aid accounts for approximately 80% of Niue’s GDP (Barnett 2008). Up to 57% of Niue’s recurrent budget is provided by the Government of New Zealand (Global Climate Change Alliance, 2013). Niue’s public sector accounts for the vast majority of employment, separate from smaller tourism, fishing, and vanilla industries. GDP growth has hovered around 4% annually in the last few years (Niue ke Monuina, 2017). In addition to Niue’s isolation, high levels of depopulation in the form of large-scale emigration over the last 50 years has seriously hampered Niue’s labor force, limiting the country’s possibilities for economic growth. Compared to over 5,000 in the 1970s, there are now only about 1,700 people living in Niue. In comparison, over 20,000 Niueans live in New Zealand, and over 1,500 in Australia (Barnett 2008). This trend is slowly beginning to reverse, and the government is invested in attracting back Niueans to live on the island by creating economic opportunities and building the country’s resilience to climate impacts. As stated in Niue’s Nationally Determined Contribution, donor funding will be required to support development of relevant sector policies and plans. Given that Niue continues to rely on foreign aid for a majority of its budget, the GoN would be unable to address its climate change needs on its own. Capacity and institutional strengthening. Lack of human resources is a commonly cited key challenge to Niue in addressing climate change, both in literature (Global Climate Change Alliance 2013, JNAP 2012), as well as among the directors of line departments during direct consultations. When human resource gaps are filed, they are done so through short term personnel and project personnel provided by regional and international partners. Given that many climate change activities implemented in Niue are project based with 3-5 year time frames, sustainable progress often falls short (Global Climate Change Alliance 2013). In particular, long-term government personnel require formalized training and capacity building on understanding climate change and its risks, raising public awareness about climate change and its risks in a systematic way, as well as communicating climate information across sectors. Consultations with government officials revealed that all GoN ministries require capacity development and institutional strengthening to address climate change. Met Service personnel require certification on quality management services and other related standards. There are also gaps in expertise at the Met Service on topics such as climatology, forecasting, seasonal and future modelling, among others. Additionally, meteorological equipment to provide end-to- end EWS services, alert systems for water tank management, mapping software, additional AWS systems, etc., would enable the Met Service to capture more consistent and accurate climate information and thereby strengthen Niue’s resilience in monitoring climate impacts and related extreme weather events. At the institutional level, the GoN has made clear its intentions to mainstream climate change considerations across government functions (JNAP, NSSP). Across sectors, communications remain relatively weak, however. lthough the JNAP (2012) calls for the creation of a National Climate Change and DRM Committee to oversee coordination and M&E of the JNAP, such a
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 24 OF 5 committee has yet to be established. To date, the Met Service reported that they either communicate directly with the police on an adhoc basis, who lead emergency and disaster response, or less directly with the National Disaster Council, but they lack an institutional partner in sharing climate information that is not immediately related to disasters. The Met Service further affirmed that there exist ample opportunities to implement an improved communications system across the Met Service and other government sectors, both for disaster preparation and response as well as disseminating climate information. These include formalizing communication channels between the Met Service and government departments that manage relevant sectors, such as agriculture, fisheries, and infrastructure.
Additionally, formalized engagement between the national government and local leadership, such as village councils and faith-based organizations, would further expand the reach of climate information services and maximize community involvement in managing climate risks. According to Ridge to Reef (R2R) staff, as well as representatives from the Ministry of Social Services, untapped opportunities in community outreach include expanding the use of community surveys and consultations with village council representatives, more hands-on assistance to village councils in developing village climate-resilient development plans, publishing maps of land use zones that are already produced but not currently disseminated, among others. The Ministry of Social Services also noted that more climate adaptation-centric responsibilities could be added to the Village Council Act (2016), which governs village council responsibilities. Pastors are traditionally some of the most effective mouthpieces to communicating climate change concerns to the wider community. All of these efforts would be central approaches in the GCF project.
The proposed project originates from consultation with the Government of Niue and is based on the national request for a project to support enhancing capacity to address extreme and slow onset events. The project will be fully country-owned and driven by the GoN. All national policies and strategies related to climate change adaptation, disaster risk reduction, and natural resource management, described above, clearly prioritize the need for increased availability and quality of climate information services, coordination, and communication. For example, the project’s underlying approach will directly contribute to several of the core strategies described in the 2009 National Climate Change Policy, such as data collection, storage, sharing, and application; awareness raising; adaptation; and governance and mainstreaming. Likewise, the project’s approach aligns with the key priorities described in the D.5. Country ownership 2012 Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management [Beneficiary country (JNAP), including institutional strengthening for adaptation, improved public awareness, and ownership of project or community resilience. Moreover, improved CIS / EWS, coordination, training and capacity will programme and capacity to propel forward the GoN’s desire to mainstream climate change and adopt an integrative implement the proposed approach, as espoused in the 2014-2019 Niue National Strategic Plan. activities] As described above, the primary stakeholders and beneficiaries of the project with whom UNDP will closely work include the GoN Project Management and Coordination Unit (PMCU), GoN Meteorological Service, GoN Department of the Environment (coordinating body of the JNAP) and other relevant departments (agriculture, etc.) under the Ministry of Natural Resources, and members of the Disaster Risk Management Council, such as the Police Department. At the community level, the project will engage with Village Council members (the village-level governance structure), the National Chamber of Commerce and its affiliated members, faith-based entities, as well as civil society organizations such as the National Youth Council and Women in Business Council, on activities for spreading public awareness and community action around climate adaptation.
GoN’s stakeholder engagement process is described in section G below.
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 25 OF 5
In terms of efficiency, the combination of interventions to create an end-to-end approach to collection, analysis and use of weather and climate data, as proposed by this project, will lead to bigger improvements in resilience than if the project included only a single approach. Niue has participated in a number of interventions designed to address some aspect of the climate resilience challenge, from installing an automatic weather station to developing village-level assessments of climate impacts. While useful, the transaction costs associated with these limited and siloed interventions is high, while the resilience dividend and long-term transformative change is low. The combined approach that this project will advance, from creation to application of data, and from targeting government, businesses and community members, will create the fundamental capacity Niue needs to address current and future climate impacts.
- As described throughout this concept note, various other measures will be taken to ensure the effectiveness and efficiency of the project. These include:Integrating regional data into Niue’s capabilities - Making new Niue-produced data available to regional and global stakeholders - Ensuring long-term sustainability of the project by incorporating operations D.6. Effectiveness and efficiency and maintenance, and training support into annual budgeting processes. [Economic and financial Creating training materials that are ‘timeless’ as much as possible, and can be lasting guides soundness and available in centrally accessible locations. effectiveness of the Co-financing: proposed activities] ● A grant contribution from the European Development Fund, 10th window in the amount of USD 600,000 will be used to support the creation of an emergency coordination centre, leveraging the GCF contribution in support of complementary Met Service capacity and physical space. ● Technical assistance in the amount of USD 100,000 from the New Zealand Minisitry of Foreign Affairs and Trade for creation of the emergency coordination centre will also support a comprehensive approach to early warning and disaster preparedness capacity.
Total co-financing is USD 700,000, which amounts to nearly 10% of project costs.
The project requests solely grant finance from the GCF. Given the public nature of the goods produced by the project, there is no possibility for generating a revenue stream that could be used to repay a loan. In addition, the fact that Niue has never had access to international loans (and thus never taken one) means it has no track record related to managing and repaying a loan. A full economic rate of return analysis for this project will be submitted with the full proposal.
E. Brief Rationale for GCF Involvement and Exit Strategy Without GCF support, Niue’s climate resilience challenges will continue to grow. The country is no less at risk than it was in 2004, when the category 5 Cyclone Heta hit and caused $37 million dollars of damage (3 times the country’s 2004 GDP). In many ways, because of the expansion of tourism infrastructure and other types of basic development infrastructure, the country stands to lose even more if it were hit by a major storm than it did in 2004 with Heta. It is not for lack of wanting that Niue hasn’t managed to further develop its climate resilience practice. The main barrier is the extreme lack of resources and capacity that the country has in relation to the enormity of its exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts.
While Niue is working hard to increase its economic sustainability and does receive significant budgetary support from New Zealand, this support is not enough to cover all of Niue’s needs. Priority uses of New Zealand aid, therefore, tend to focus on provision of basic services and not climate interventions. The special relationship Niue enjoys with New Zealand tends to mean that the other traditional
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 26 OF 5 donors are less active in Niue, limiting Niue’s ability to seek bilateral climate change support. In addition, Niue is not a member of the World Bank Group, nor the Asian Development Bank, putting the country at a distinct disadvantage relative to its Pacific Island neighbors when it comes to accessing technical assistance and finance for addressing climate change. It is for these reasons that it can be assumed that, without GCF support, Niue would not be able to implement the comprehensive end-to-end approach to climate and weather data envisioned by this project. In addition, the GCF is the ideal partner for Niue, as the country pursues the transformational change intended by this project, for a number of reasons. For one, the GCF promotes paradigm-shift approaches. As described above, Niue has participated in projects previously, with support from bilateral and multilateral donors, focused on improving Met Service capacity and has undertaken initial work on integrating climate science into government decision-making. However, because those projects have been limited in scope and siloed, Niue has not developed the end-to-end approach to climate information envisaged for this project. Given the GCF’s focus on paradigm-shifting approaches, it is the ideal partner for the Government of Niue to undertake this comprehensive project. Support from GCF would be used to cover the additional costs associated exclusively with climate change, costs that the country has done next to nothing to create and that the government has been unable to cover through domestic budgets or other bilateral or multilateral support. Recognizing the synergies possible when the country’s emergency services agencies and Met Service are physically combined, the project will leverage the secured co-finance from the 10th window of the European Development Fund and from the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade for building an emergency operations centre. GCF funds will be used to build out the emergency operations centre concept to also include additional space for the Met Service’s expanded climate information services capacity, as well as space for training communities on incorporating climate information into their daily activities.
Please explain how the project/programme sustainability will be ensured in the long run, after the project/programme is implemented with support from the GCF and other sources.
Once the project is completed, all activities have been finalized and the entire grant has been disbursed by the GCF, the ownership of all the assets acquired or built during the project implementation phase will be transferred to the GoN. From that moment forward, the GoN will be responsible for: 1) sustaining all the operation and maintenance expenses of the new Met Service equipment and the Climate Resilience Centre itself; 2) paying salaries for the additional Met Service staff hired through the project; and, 3) maintaining the training and capacity building program for government, private sector and communities.
The GoN commits to sustainably covering these costs through normal budgetary processes following the exit of the GCF. Regarding the operation and maintenance of the equipment and the Climate Resilience Centre, the GoN has indicated that when it enters into any construction project, it also plans for post construction operation and maintenance costs, and this will apply to the Climate Resilience Centre as well. Additionally, for all other assets that are government owned, Niue has an Asset Maintenance Plan and budget in place. In this case, the co-location of existing departments, such as police, fire and paramedics, will be an advantage, since the GoN already has in place operation and maintenance budgets for these departments. Also, considering that in the event of a natural disaster the centre will function as an emergency operation and coordination centre, the GoN has indicated that maintenance of optimal functionality of the building and the equipment will have high priority on its budget agenda. Finally, the building will be constructed implementing modern energy efficient technologies and design, which will help minimize operating costs.
In terms of staffing, when the GoN hires new staff, their salaries are figured into the government’s budget for the ensuing years. Budgeting for staff hired through this project will follow a similar model, where GoN will automatically include these staffing costs in the annual budget in subsequent years. Lastly, in order to maintain the training component, the GoN commits to using government personnel trained through the project to maintain the training function though the organization of workshops or via ad-hoc meetings to satisfy specific requests of stakeholder groups. It is anticipated that any costs related to maintaining the training component will also be incorporated into normal budgeting processes.
F. Risk Analysis Risks associated with this project are relatively low and relate mainly to the sitting of the new building that will form the Niue Climate Resilience Centre. While an in-depth safeguards screening will take place during the full proposal development process, the risks associated with the Centre location are minimal in that the site identified is publicly-owned, currently bare and in an inland part of the
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 27 OF 5 island, away from coastal hazards.
A full risk analysis will be outlined in the full proposal.
G. Multi-Stakeholder Engagement
The Government of Niue prides itself on holding open and transparent processes with all key stakeholders in order to inform the country’s development trajectory. As such, GCF proposal prioritization follows intensive stakeholder engagement processes. From a macro level, over the last five years, the government has hosted several “town hall” type events to discuss climate related challenges with community groups and ask for their feedback. It is through the process that the general notions of improved climate information, strengthened early warning capacity and coordination, and climate-resilient communities have come forward. In addition, following Cyclone Heta in 2004, the concept of the Emergency Operation Centre was developed and endorsed by communities through many consultations. The need for such a centre was further emphasized and incorporated into Niue’s Climate Change Policy and the Joint National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management & Climate Change, again based on stakeholder engagement.
As this project progresses to full proposal stage, the Government envisages to undertake a robust stakeholder engagement process to ensure that the project is developed in a way that takes advantage of the “hive mind” benefits that come from group thinking and to ensure that the needs of all stakeholders are taken into consideration. In particular, the following constituencies will be foci of the stakeholder engagement process: government line ministries; individual private industry groups, eg, tourism, agriculture, import / export; civil society groups, eg, women’s groups, church groups, youth groups; and local governments.
H. Status of Project/Programme
1) A pre-feasibility study is expected to be completed at this stage. Please provide the report in section J.
2) Please indicate whether a feasibility study and/or environmental and social impact assessment has been conducted for the proposed project/programme: Yes ☐ No ☐ (If ‘Yes’, please provide them in section J.)
3) Will the proposed project/programme be developed as an extension of a previous project (e.g. subsequent phase), or based on a previous project/programme (e.g. scale up or replication)? Yes ☐ No ☐ (If yes, please provide an evaluation report of the previous project in section J, if available.)
I. Remarks
J. Supporting Documents for Concept Note
X☐ Map indicating the location of the project/programme ☐ Financial Model X☐ Pre-feasibility Study ☐ Feasibility Study (if applicable)
PROJECT / PROGRAMME CONCEPT NOTE GREEN CLIMATE FUND | PAGE 28 OF 5 ☐ Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (if applicable) ☐ Evaluation Report (if applicable)