March Series Dissecting Derivatives
The entire March contract can be divided into 2 halves, the first fortnight being a Sagar Doshi very bright one, wherein the Nifty was hitting fresh highs, corrections were Research Analyst getting over in the form of traps. At one point of time, the Nifty was at a kissing [email protected]
distance of breaking previous All time highs, but that rally got sold into and that Ankit Narshana was the turning point which led to the second phase.The second fortnight saw Research Analyst [email protected] the picture getting painted in RED. All the highs were getting sold into and the Nifty gave up all the gains registered in the fortnight. Banks were the highlight of Parag Shah this series as they were mainly responsible for dragging the index down. Cement Research Analyst [email protected] stocks witnessed a decent runup as stocks made fresh life highs. IT & FMCG were late entrants in lending a support hand to the Nifty. EoE Nifty ended with losses of 773 points (5.12%).
Nifty rollovers stood at 81.70% (Vs 3 Month Avg of 79.10%). Roll cost for Nifty stood at 0.71% which is the highest in the past 6 months. Bank Nifty rollovers stood at 88.20% (Vs 3 Month Avg of 80.20%). Roll cost for Bank Nifty stood at 0.86% which is also the highest in the past 6 months.
Market wide rollovers were slightly higher than 3 month avg of 92.2%. This was primarily because of more than average rollovers in the indices.
Date: March 26, 2021
Edelweiss Wealth Research 1
March Series
Sector wide Rollover
Auto :The sector witnessed slightly higher than average rollover at 95% (3Month Avg Rollover was 93%). Within the PV space, Tata Motors witnessed higher than average rollover at 96% (3 Month Avg was 93%). Within the 2 wheeler space, Bajaj Auto saw rollovers to the tune of 95% whereas the 3 month avg rollover being 92%.
Banks :Sector rollover was in line with the 3 month avg at 92%. Within the Pvt Banking space, Axis Bank stood out with rollovers at 96% (3 Month Avg rollover was 91%). Also RBL Bank witnessed rollovers at 87% (3 Month Avg being 82%). The PSB’s witnessed rollovers inline with their 3 month avg.
Capital Goods :The sector witnessed slightly higher rollovers at 94% (3 Month Avg was 92%). Major contributors were Concor, witnessing rollovers to the tune of 96% Vs 3 month avg of 92%& Cummins which saw rollover to the tune of 93%.
Cement :Sector witnessed a slightly better rollover mainly contributed by frontline cement names AmbujaCem which saw highest rollover 96% Vs 3 month avg of 91%. Shreecem also witnessed higher than avg rollover at 99% Vs 3 month avg of 90%.
Exhibit 1: March' 21 Roll Cost Roll Cost 3 MONTH Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE NIFTY 82% 78% 77% 101.45 0.71% 79% BANKNIFTY 88% 78% 75% 282.60 0.86% 80% FINNIFTY 40% 44% 53% 144.1 0.93% 46%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH BANKS Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE AXISBANK 96% 85% 92% 5.85 0.84% 91% BANDHANBNK 88% 96% 93% 2.50 0.71% 93% BANKBARODA 79% 89% 89% 0.75 1.07% 85% CANBK 97% 97% 99% 1.25 0.87% 97% FEDERALBNK 94% 97% 94% 0.40 0.52% 95% HDFCBANK 96% 96% 96% 11.60 0.79% 96% ICICIBANK 97% 97% 97% 4.80 0.84% 97% IDFCFIRSTB 90% 92% 93% 0.20 0.35% 92% INDUSINDBK 95% 94% 93% 6.10 0.64% 94% KOTAKBANK 92% 94% 84% 13.65 0.77% 90% PNB 91% 82% 92% 0.25 0.71% 88% RBLBANK 87% 65% 93% 1.55 0.74% 82% SBIN 94% 93% 95% 2.40 0.67% 94% Total 92% 90% 93% 92%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 2
March Series
Roll Cost 3 MONTH AUTO Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE AMARAJABAT 97% 96% 91% 6.90 0.82% 95% APOLLOTYRE 92% 93% 92% 2.00 0.92% 92% ASHOKLEY 93% 89% 92% 0.95 0.87% 91% BAJAJ-AUTO 95% 87% 92% 33.80 0.97% 92% BALKRISIND 97% 96% 72% 12.60 0.79% 88% BHARATFORG 96% 96% 93% 5.30 0.93% 95% BOSCHLTD 98% 98% 94% 109.05 0.80% 97% EICHERMOT 96% 94% 91% 22.20 0.86% 94% ESCORTS 95% 96% 97% 9.75 0.77% 96% EXIDEIND 94% 96% 89% 1.15 0.64% 93% HEROMOTOCO 93% 98% 93% 8.70 0.30% 95% M&M 92% 84% 95% 4.10 0.52% 90% MARUTI 95% 95% 95% 42.75 0.63% 95% MOTHERSUMI 94% 94% 95% 1.70 0.87% 94% MRF 92% 98% 93% 599.75 0.73% 94% TATAMOTORS 96% 94% 90% 2.05 0.72% 93% TVSMOTOR 93% 91% 95% 2.25 0.41% 93% Total 95% 94% 92% 93%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH CAPITAL GOODS Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE BEL 94% 94% 90% 1.05 0.89% 93% BHEL 90% 95% 96% 0.45 0.93% 94% CONCOR 96% 90% 90% 3.70 0.67% 92% CUMMINSIND 93% 91% 91% -7.15 -0.84% 92% LT 95% 95% 94% 8.55 0.62% 95% SIEMENS 94% 94% 81% 10.35 0.57% 90% Total 94% 93% 90% 92%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH PHARMA Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE APOLLOHOSP 97% 92% 89% 18.80 0.67% 93% AUROPHARMA 96% 94% 88% 5.35 0.64% 93% BIOCON 97% 96% 94% 2.85 0.72% 96% CADILAHC 97% 95% 97% 3.50 0.83% 96% CIPLA 93% 96% 97% 2.00 0.25% 96% DIVISLAB 98% 95% 97% 28.55 0.83% 97% DRREDDY 97% 96% 97% 37.00 0.85% 97% GLENMARK 90% 96% 92% 4.25 0.96% 93% LUPIN 87% 95% 98% 6.35 0.64% 93% SUNPHARMA 98% 98% 92% 4.80 0.83% 96% TORNTPHARM 98% 97% 97% 22.55 0.93% 97% LALPATHLAB 80% 91% 90% 2.75 0.11% 87% Total 95% 96% 94% 95%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 3
March Series
Roll Cost 3 MONTH CONSUMER Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE ASIANPAINT 98% 97% 93% 18.10 0.75% 89% BATAINDIA 94% 94% 95% 11.95 0.84% 93% BERGEPAINT 98% 97% 91% 5.30 0.72% 97% BRITANNIA 93% 94% 98% 19.65 0.57% 95% COLPAL 97% 99% 92% -5.80 -0.38% 98% DABUR 98% 93% 97% 4.40 0.85% 96% GODREJCP 98% 97% 99% 4.90 0.72% 92% HAVELLS 96% 95% 89% 7.45 0.73% 94% HINDUNILVR 95% 95% 94% 14.30 0.64% 96% ITC 96% 94% 95% 2.30 1.09% 94% JUBLFOOD 97% 91% 92% 22.85 0.81% 94% MARICO 98% 71% 95% 2.80 0.70% 89% MCDOWELL-N 98% 96% 98% 3.20 0.59% 97% PAGEIND 99% 96% 90% 252.05 0.86% 95% PIDILITIND 98% 98% 89% 12.25 0.70% 98% TATACONSUM 96% 96% 96% 5.55 0.91% 96% UBL 70% 94% 93% 7.90 0.65% 79% VOLTAS 95% 93% 94% 9.05 0.94% 92% Total 95% 94% 94% 94%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH METAL Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE HINDALCO 94% 77% 90% 2.85 0.91% 89% JINDALSTEL 97% 96% 97% 2.75 0.89% 96% JSWSTEEL 98% 93% 96% 3.60 0.82% 96% NATIONALUM 93% 87% 95% 0.45 0.86% 86% NMDC 85% 83% 86% 1.30 1.05% 86% SAIL 95% 92% 90% 0.75 1.04% 78% TATASTEEL 98% 90% 97% 4.40 0.61% 94% VEDL 59% 96% 95% 0.50 0.22% 84% Total 90% 89% 93% 89%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH OIL & GAS Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE BPCL 89% 87% 91% 3.85 0.92% 88% GAIL 93% 87% 87% 1.15 0.90% 89% HINDPETRO 91% 90% 97% 2.15 0.95% 90% IGL 97% 87% 97% 4.05 0.81% 92% IOC 93% 93% 89% 0.70 0.77% 92% MGL 95% 96% 91% 3.15 0.28% 90% ONGC 92% 85% 89% 0.80 0.78% 85% PETRONET 97% 93% 99% 1.60 0.73% 96% RELIANCE 98% 96% 96% 15.85 0.80% 96% Total 94% 90% 93% 91%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 4
March Series
Roll Cost 3 MONTH FINANCIALS Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE BAJAJFINSV 95% 94% 84% 70.65 0.78% 95% BAJFINANCE 97% 93% 91% 40.15 0.78% 90% CHOLAFIN 95% 89% 89% 3.75 0.70% 92% LICHSGFIN 96% 94% 94% 2.85 0.69% 94% M&MFIN 95% 91% 95% -1.15 -0.59% 94% SRTRANSFIN 93% 86% 92% 2.35 0.17% 91% PEL 96% 90% 99% 16.40 0.92% 94% MUTHOOTFIN 91% 77% 95% 0.30 0.03% 88% MANAPPURAM 92% 97% 96% 1.30 0.88% 93% L&TFH 85% 79% 88% 0.90 0.96% 85% HDFC 96% 87% 90% 19.55 0.79% 92% IBULHSGFIN 93% 97% 97% 1.85 0.95% 95% HDFCLIFE 94% 96% 87% 6.60 0.99% 95% ICICIPRULI 94% 97% 95% 2.50 0.58% 96% ICICIGI 97% 98% 98% 10.20 0.74% 96% MFSL 96% 89% 96% 7.10 0.84% 94% SBILIFE 80% 95% 93% 0.75 1.04% 90% HDFCAMC 96% 99% 0% 20.10 0.72% 96% Total 93% 91% 93% 93%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH IT Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE COFORGE 88% 96% 91% 24.00 0.87% 93% HCLTECH 97% 97% 97% 6.35 0.66% 97% INFY 96% 97% 96% 10.65 0.80% 97% MINDTREE 91% 96% 87% 17.50 0.89% 94% NAUKRI 93% 98% 89% 44.65 1.01% 95% TCS 96% 95% 97% 24.85 0.81% 94% TECHM 97% 93% 92% 8.50 0.88% 96% WIPRO 93% 96% 91% 3.40 0.85% 95% Total 94% 96% 92% 95%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH CEMENT Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE ACC 97% 92% 97% -1.70 -0.09% 95% AMBUJACEM 96% 80% 97% 2.15 0.73% 91% GRASIM 82% 98% 99% 5.10 0.37% 93% RAMCOCEM 93% 94% 97% 6.10 0.64% 94% SHREECEM 99% 86% 99% 195.10 0.71% 90% ULTRACEMCO 96% 98% 95% 41.10 0.61% 96% Total 94% 91% 97% 93%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 5
March Series
Roll Cost 3 MONTH REALTY Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE DLF 95% 95% 88% 2.05 0.74% 92% GODREJPROP 83% 88% 89% 11.75 0.88% 88% Total 89% 92% 88% 90%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH MEDIA Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE PVR 95% 94% 92% -2.15 -0.17% 93% SUNTV 94% 94% 94% 4.10 0.91% 92% ZEEL 97% 96% 93% 1.90 0.97% 97% Total 95% 95% 93% 94%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH POWER Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE NTPC 93% 90% 87% 0.90 0.87% 87% PFC 96% 82% 85% 0.85 0.75% 89% POWERGRID 62% 74% 93% 1.35 0.62% 67% RECLTD 89% 82% 94% 1.20 0.92% 84% TATAPOWER 97% 95% 92% 0.90 0.91% 96% TORNTPOWER 93% 93% 97% 3.15 0.77% 93% Total 88% 86% 92% 86%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH CHEMICAL Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE AARTIIND 92% 94% 0% 11.75 0.89% 93% SRF 96% 97% 94% 45.80 0.87% 96% TATACHEM 94% 89% 91% 6.45 0.88% 92% UPL 98% 98% 96% 5.20 0.87% 96% Total 96% 95% 94% 95%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH TELECOM Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE BHARTIARTL 96% 92% 99% 4.40 0.87% 94% IDEA 49% 93% 92% 0.25 2.81% 78% INDUSTOWER 87% 88% 78% 1.40 0.58% 86% Total 77% 91% 90% 86%
Roll Cost 3 MONTH OTHERS Mar Roll Feb Roll Jan Roll Rs. % AVERAGE ADANIPORTS 95% 93% 78% 6.70 0.98% 89% ADANIENT 93% 94% 98% 8.85 0.90% 95% GMRINFRA 88% 98% 98% 0.30 1.26% 95% COALINDIA 84% 83% 77% 1.15 0.90% 85% INDIGO 98% 96% 88% 0.95 0.06% 97%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 6
March Series
Exhibit 2: Delivery Analysis Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Jan - March 2021 Total Volume Del Volume Company Name Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % ('000) ('000) Hindustan Unilever Ltd. 51.18% 58.41% 63.26% 138538.5 79794.5 57.60% PI Industries Ltd. 62.39% 60.55% 57.74% 21138.8 12784.3 60.48% Alembic Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 54.14% 52.21% 57.53% 23275.7 12666.0 54.42% ICICI Lombard General Insurance Co Ltd. 58.20% 62.78% 57.09% 43621.1 26177.0 60.01% Britannia Industries Ltd. 43.13% 49.60% 56.49% 40781.2 19866.3 48.71% Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd. 58.07% 53.70% 55.44% 245691.1 137136.8 55.82% Nestle India Ltd. 40.74% 48.40% 55.25% 6901.9 3326.7 48.20% Infosys Ltd. 45.66% 51.16% 54.07% 489702.7 243456.3 49.72% ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. 42.97% 48.81% 53.48% 169503.9 82851.8 48.88% Petronet LNG Ltd. 47.45% 47.51% 52.53% 297277.3 144890.0 48.74% Dabur India Ltd. 36.77% 49.50% 51.78% 175644.0 79997.6 45.55% Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. 29.97% 33.40% 50.95% 814543.0 341150.8 41.88% City Union Bank Ltd. 63.47% 60.59% 50.33% 184299.9 104388.5 56.64% Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd. 53.80% 46.68% 49.63% 254930.4 127253.0 49.92% Marico Ltd. 35.17% 38.38% 49.56% 140988.3 56354.7 39.97% Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. 41.19% 47.73% 49.21% 210068.2 95613.6 45.52% Indus Towers Ltd. 39.01% 56.55% 49.12% 359877.3 179526.9 49.89% ITC Ltd. 38.63% 35.76% 47.77% 2521083.3 1013929.4 40.22% Pfizer Ltd. 33.58% 43.54% 47.54% 3863.7 1537.9 39.80% Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd. 35.74% 44.40% 47.25% 35997.4 14835.5 41.21% Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. 39.64% 41.72% 47.16% 92026.6 38869.1 42.24% Divis Laboratories Ltd. 42.17% 36.04% 47.07% 48683.5 19865.6 40.81% Torrent Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 38.95% 38.50% 46.95% 22333.2 9031.6 40.44% Max Financial Services Ltd. 39.48% 33.30% 46.21% 96217.7 36544.9 37.98% HDFC Bank Ltd. 45.66% 43.23% 46.06% 548521.0 246194.2 44.88% Tata Consumer Products Ltd. 36.60% 32.94% 45.50% 237033.2 87734.1 37.01% Alkem Laboratories Ltd. 65.80% 58.98% 44.34% 7186.7 4038.3 56.19% Power Grid Corporation Of India Ltd. 58.38% 41.43% 43.82% 802745.0 375586.1 46.79% Bharti Airtel Ltd. 35.30% 46.25% 43.45% 1427433.0 599784.5 42.02% HDFC Life Insurance Co Ltd. 47.16% 46.19% 43.28% 200753.6 91988.0 45.82% Vedanta Ltd. 25.34% 26.76% 43.09% 1092976.3 347105.6 31.76% Larsen & Toubro Ltd. 41.46% 40.52% 42.91% 237261.6 98503.0 41.52% ICICI Bank Ltd. 44.16% 40.87% 42.70% 1438125.3 609411.5 42.38% HCL Technologies Ltd. 35.00% 42.03% 42.45% 397498.1 155492.2 39.12% SBI Life Insurance Company Ltd. 41.90% 44.20% 42.02% 155845.7 66376.0 42.59% Dr. Reddys Laboratories Ltd. 29.08% 33.30% 41.63% 64708.3 22225.5 34.35% Tech Mahindra Ltd. 35.21% 37.51% 41.49% 245795.5 92901.2 37.80% AU Small Finance Bank Ltd. 67.19% 53.05% 41.44% 56070.7 29805.9 53.16% United Spirits Ltd. 33.26% 39.53% 41.28% 163130.6 60912.9 37.34% Biocon Ltd. 33.09% 30.23% 41.05% 265822.9 89720.1 33.75% Nippon Life India Asset Management Ltd. 40.80% 53.35% 40.52% 69234.8 30263.4 43.71% Asian Paints Ltd. 38.34% 37.88% 39.63% 150264.5 57844.5 38.50% Power Finance Corporation Ltd. 29.39% 33.68% 39.47% 474336.8 166598.3 35.12%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 7
March Series
Delivery Analysis Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Jan - March 2021 Total Volume Del Volume Company Name Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % ('000) ('000) Titan Company Ltd. 32.00% 32.54% 39.42% 123364.3 42043.5 34.08% Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. 39.28% 38.47% 39.26% 466730.7 181730.7 38.94% Exide Industries Ltd. 24.63% 25.76% 38.86% 296386.1 82991.2 28.00% Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. 22.29% 30.71% 38.76% 65142.8 19369.7 29.73% Aurobindo Pharma Ltd. 28.12% 35.66% 38.58% 169407.1 56064.7 33.09% Larsen & Toubro Infotech Ltd. 40.19% 58.98% 38.52% 15004.6 6432.2 42.87% SRF Ltd. 31.37% 36.93% 38.45% 10281.0 3586.1 34.88% Hero MotoCorp Ltd. 28.03% 28.21% 38.30% 72954.8 22307.7 30.58% Pidilite Industries Ltd. 35.48% 35.14% 38.15% 38035.5 13681.7 35.97% Reliance Industries Ltd. 40.72% 34.69% 38.10% 709063.8 269808.5 38.05% Bajaj Auto Ltd. 16.47% 24.43% 37.01% 53238.8 12691.3 23.84% Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. 28.93% 27.13% 36.69% 358137.4 107468.9 30.01% Havells India Ltd. 16.88% 22.54% 36.63% 181330.0 41104.0 22.67% HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd. 44.17% 43.77% 36.23% 18348.0 7630.3 41.59% REC Ltd. 26.33% 29.16% 36.18% 392318.2 121639.3 31.01% L&T Technology Services Ltd. 38.58% 39.08% 36.13% 17297.5 6525.0 37.72% Indraprastha Gas Ltd. 26.64% 28.19% 35.92% 199534.4 59497.0 29.82% Coal India Ltd. 31.60% 24.37% 35.64% 1092848.4 321060.3 29.38% Mphasis Ltd. 47.57% 55.03% 35.46% 24893.4 11430.4 45.92% Interglobe Aviation Ltd. 21.00% 25.42% 35.40% 72157.2 19901.6 27.58% NMDC Ltd. 27.43% 26.15% 34.83% 714758.8 210225.4 29.41% Gujarat Gas Ltd. 56.73% 32.11% 34.70% 81711.7 30571.6 37.41% Balkrishna Industries Ltd. 27.10% 29.04% 34.55% 52326.5 15451.4 29.53% Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd. 28.01% 22.33% 34.41% 67213.6 18247.5 27.15% NTPC Ltd. 37.22% 32.08% 34.25% 1734237.5 593928.5 34.25% Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. 23.45% 24.57% 34.23% 453815.9 119817.9 26.40% Cipla Ltd. 23.07% 26.34% 34.21% 262867.5 71329.3 27.14% Grasim Industries Ltd. 21.08% 27.30% 34.12% 131182.6 34402.3 26.22% Ultratech Cement Ltd. 28.63% 33.03% 34.01% 42416.4 13484.3 31.79% Navin Fluorine International Ltd. 46.35% 50.84% 33.86% 9238.7 3927.6 42.51% Manappuram Finance Ltd. 27.99% 31.39% 33.84% 320004.9 99196.6 31.00% Vodafone Idea Ltd. 25.94% 31.75% 33.55% 17359673.4 5095666.4 29.35% Indian Oil Corporation Ltd. 26.88% 30.18% 33.49% 1772944.5 534194.9 30.13% Bata India Ltd. 20.26% 24.46% 33.44% 41648.9 10347.8 24.85% Dr. Lal Pathlabs Ltd. 47.60% 29.80% 33.17% 13433.2 4895.7 36.45% GMR Infrastructure Ltd. 23.32% 28.59% 33.00% 1153254.2 331891.7 28.78% Axis Bank Ltd. 31.82% 35.82% 32.53% 1078234.8 361742.1 33.55% Muthoot Finance Ltd. 31.99% 31.58% 32.23% 106725.5 33985.2 31.84% Granules India Ltd. 46.80% 43.88% 32.21% 124053.7 48035.9 38.72% Ambuja Cements Ltd. 38.24% 29.37% 32.08% 436618.9 144003.0 32.98% Eicher Motors Ltd. 18.12% 23.51% 31.91% 91408.7 21038.3 23.02% Amara Raja Batteries Ltd. 20.10% 23.08% 31.70% 58679.7 14194.9 24.19% Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd. 27.09% 28.14% 31.69% 100359.0 28811.7 28.71%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 8
March Series
Delivery Analysis Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Jan - March 2021 Total Volume Del Volume Company Name Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % ('000) ('000) Bharat Electronics Ltd. 24.79% 29.95% 31.58% 919261.1 259030.1 28.18% Container Corporation Of India Ltd. 41.18% 25.17% 31.25% 230113.3 73381.7 31.89% Bandhan Bank Ltd. 33.45% 30.72% 31.04% 676657.5 216997.7 32.07% Torrent Power Ltd. 31.14% 28.10% 30.69% 128333.3 37991.3 29.60% Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd. 31.39% 27.94% 30.44% 2010256.6 597101.7 29.70% Hindalco Industries Ltd. 28.82% 21.71% 30.40% 1027895.8 267454.8 26.02% Aarti Industries Ltd. 50.99% 53.50% 29.98% 22717.5 10028.5 44.14% Steel Authority Of India Ltd. 34.12% 33.45% 29.72% 4121927.7 1357484.9 32.93% Trent Ltd. 57.64% 49.76% 29.55% 46135.9 19906.9 43.15% Sun TV Network Ltd. 20.96% 25.57% 29.51% 180049.3 44545.4 24.74% Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. 32.03% 22.26% 29.37% 1211107.4 312773.6 25.83% National Aluminium Company Ltd. 25.92% 26.25% 29.28% 1656331.7 446758.8 26.97% Voltas Ltd. 18.79% 23.59% 29.12% 136289.3 31928.2 23.43% Lupin Ltd. 23.75% 26.92% 28.96% 154274.7 39886.9 25.85% IndusInd Bank Ltd. 23.80% 19.83% 28.37% 624994.3 143895.6 23.02% Page Industries Ltd. 22.07% 24.50% 28.34% 2776.3 689.0 24.82% Info Edge (India) Ltd. 21.51% 21.10% 28.23% 49843.7 11251.5 22.57% Wipro Ltd. 22.23% 24.54% 28.17% 923870.2 224296.4 24.28% Shree Cement Ltd. 27.22% 23.12% 27.92% 3692.6 944.9 25.59% Godrej Properties Ltd. 20.08% 22.03% 27.90% 60899.2 14016.4 23.02% PVR Ltd. 15.09% 28.95% 27.85% 91798.4 20972.4 22.85% GAIL (India) Ltd. 27.67% 24.53% 27.83% 1544998.5 408971.1 26.47% Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services Ltd. 27.74% 24.00% 27.72% 609829.6 159519.1 26.16% Bharat Forge Ltd. 17.81% 25.90% 27.72% 178247.2 40581.4 22.77% Berger Paints India Ltd. 25.88% 26.95% 27.54% 79463.4 21295.7 26.80% Bosch Ltd. 23.30% 23.62% 27.47% 4001.6 965.6 24.13% State Bank Of India 23.66% 22.10% 27.36% 3040859.4 722553.3 23.76% Ashok Leyland Ltd. 20.59% 23.38% 26.81% 1915533.2 440134.4 22.98% Cholamandalam Investment & Finance Company 18.10% 26.32% 26.07% 368138.0 85308.1 23.17% Ltd. Bank Of Baroda 15.35% 16.57% 25.53% 3871827.7 718409.3 18.55% LIC Housing Finance Ltd. 25.53% 21.23% 25.21% 376126.1 89745.9 23.86% United Breweries Ltd. 22.05% 31.10% 24.89% 32000.8 8297.4 25.93% Cadila Healthcare Ltd. 22.42% 32.87% 24.86% 163056.4 44585.8 27.34% Escorts Ltd. 20.08% 17.32% 24.40% 87355.6 17348.4 19.86% The Ramco Cements Ltd. 28.22% 22.47% 24.17% 43995.8 10933.0 24.85% Cummins India Ltd. 25.32% 19.53% 24.15% 106798.7 24572.7 23.01% The Federal Bank Ltd. 25.73% 23.91% 23.98% 1713309.0 423605.6 24.72% IDFC First Bank Ltd. 20.80% 20.86% 23.84% 3411907.4 732781.7 21.48% ACC Ltd. 27.07% 20.30% 23.83% 71581.6 16950.5 23.68% Mahanagar Gas Ltd. 22.83% 21.26% 23.15% 50007.4 11152.4 22.30% Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. 19.95% 21.41% 23.10% 1064276.7 228169.6 21.44% Jubilant FoodWorks Ltd. 20.71% 21.85% 23.07% 52799.7 11436.8 21.66% Shriram Transport Finance Company Ltd. 15.67% 14.96% 22.19% 214413.8 36014.7 16.80% Indiabulls Housing Finance Ltd. 16.96% 17.57% 21.83% 1247480.5 232113.3 18.61%
Edelweiss Wealth Research 9
March Series
Delivery Analysis Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Jan - March 2021 Total Volume Del Volume Company Name Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % Delivery % ('000) ('000) L&T Finance Holdings Ltd. 22.48% 25.74% 21.53% 1147450.1 268969.8 23.44% Bajaj Finance Ltd. 18.76% 19.32% 21.29% 162033.3 31657.1 19.54% TVS Motor Company Ltd. 14.29% 19.72% 21.17% 208959.7 36118.7 17.28% Piramal Enterprises Ltd. 22.90% 19.94% 20.50% 114298.0 24437.2 21.38% Bajaj Finserv Ltd. 17.50% 15.13% 20.23% 34867.9 5952.4 17.07% Siemens Ltd. 19.39% 18.02% 20.00% 25391.5 4814.8 18.96% MRF Ltd. 10.92% 9.21% 19.65% 2673.4 318.2 11.90% Jindal Steel & Power Ltd. 16.58% 19.18% 19.60% 617540.3 112926.7 18.29% JSW Steel Ltd. 17.44% 19.57% 19.44% 442931.4 83190.1 18.78% Deepak Nitrite Ltd. 38.24% 30.00% 19.29% 64617.7 18253.8 28.25% Punjab National Bank 21.23% 18.23% 18.82% 9827705.4 1888399.3 19.22% Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. 22.96% 25.89% 18.51% 4846741.9 1087688.7 22.44% DLF Ltd. 14.20% 14.73% 18.44% 1033468.7 156653.8 15.16% Apollo Tyres Ltd. 11.43% 13.95% 18.40% 850331.7 116294.4 13.68% Mindtree Ltd. 18.37% 23.65% 18.18% 61894.2 11920.7 19.26% Indian Railway Catering & Tourism Corporation 33.63% 28.52% 18.06% 142152.3 35305.2 24.84% Ltd. Tata Power Company Ltd. 25.73% 21.28% 17.89% 3137417.2 649316.7 20.70% Coforge Ltd. 24.53% 29.92% 17.29% 22215.6 5186.6 23.35% Tata Steel Ltd. 15.79% 14.13% 17.16% 1225132.2 190021.3 15.51% Tata Chemicals Ltd. 17.19% 12.84% 16.86% 454921.6 69059.4 15.18% RBL Bank Ltd. 14.83% 16.42% 16.71% 1011942.7 160775.4 15.89% UPL Ltd. 21.30% 23.94% 16.13% 550904.8 114590.4 20.80% Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd. 19.45% 17.81% 15.83% 712189.4 123772.4 17.38% Canara Bank 17.99% 15.50% 15.52% 1727937.2 284699.7 16.48% Tata Motors Ltd. 9.07% 11.62% 14.96% 6391720.6 705943.4 11.04% Adani Enterprises Ltd. 12.06% 8.35% 9.77% 457501.7 43953.4 9.61%
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March Series
NIFTY PULLERS V/S DRAGGERS IN MARCH SERIES Nifty 50 stocks • Below table comprises of Nifty 50 components and their corresponding point contribution to loses over 700 the Index. The 50 pack index ended March series 770 points lower. Out of 50 stocks, only 18 points in March stocks ended in Green series, mainly dragged by Bank • Banking stocks contributed highest in dragging index. Out of top 10 draggers, 5 were banking Nifty stocks stocks. Most of the heavyweight components contributed highest in Nifty fall. Among pullers, IT and Cement stocks were among top which supported the index.
POINTS POINTS PULLERS DRAGGERS CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTION INFY 54 RELIANCE -164 ULTRATECH CEMENT 30 HDFC BANK -161 ITC 25 ICICI BANK -109 GRASIM 24 HDFC -98 TCS 20 LT -81 ADANI PORTS 15 KOTAK MAHINDRA -56 HINDUSTAN UNILEVER 13 STATE BANK OF INDIA -50 HCL TECH 10 BHARTI AIRTEL -45 JSW STEEL 9 AXIS BANK -30 SHREE CEMENT 8 BAJAJ FINANCE -24 UPL 4 BAJAJ FINSERV -17 DR REDDY'S 3 INDUSIND BANK -17 EICHER MOTORS 3 HEROMOTOCO -17 BRITANNIA 2 TATA MOTORS -14 ASIAN PAINTS 2 BAJAJ AUTO -13 SBI LIFE INSURANCE 1 COAL INDIA -13 TATA STEEL 1 HDFC LIFE -11 CIPLA 1 M&M -10 TOTAL 225 MARUTI -8 GAIL -8 WIPRO -7 TECH MAHINDRA -7 ONGC -7 SUN PHARMA -7 HINDALCO -4 IOC -4 BPCL -4 TITAN -4 POWER GRID -4 DIVIS LAB -2 NTPC -1 NESTLE INDIA -1 TOTAL -998
Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
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March Series
NIFTY BANK PULLERS V/S DRAGGERS
POINTS POINTS PULLERS DRAGGERS CONTRIBUTION CONTRIBUTION Among Nifty Bank BANDHAN BANK 102 HDFC BANK -725 components, only
one stock managed TOTAL 102 ICICI BANK -603 to end in green in AXIS BANK -504 the March series INDUSIND BANK -283 KOTAK MAHINDRA -277 BANK BANK OF BARODA -71 RBL BANK -54 PUNJAB NATIONAL -40 BANK IDFC FIRST BANK -11 TOTAL -3182 Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
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March Series
FIIs Reducing their Long Exposure • After 5 months of relentless buying, FIIs seem to reduce their long exposure. In cash market, FIIs net buying were at 6 month low.
FII DII Net Net Month Gross Buying Gross Selling Gross Buying Gross Selling Buying/Selling Buying/Selling Mar-21 1,66,665 1,64,453 2212 90445 91207 -762 Feb-21 2,23,030 1,80,986 42044 1,04,175 1,20,533 -16358 Jan-21 1,68,241 1,59,260 8981 1,05,747 1,17,718 -11971 Dec-20 1,82,528 1,34,304 48224 84,739 1,22,033 -37294 Nov-20 2,59,779 1,94,462 65317 71,778 1,20,097 -48319 Oct-20 1,36,822 1,22,284 14538 69,356 86,675 -17319 Sep-20 1,27,201 1,38,612 -11411 91,029 90,919 110 Aug-20 1,31,434 1,15,684 15750 77,599 88,646 -11047 Jul-20 1,13,501 1,11,011 2490 89,373 99,381 -10008 Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
In Stock futures, FIIs have been reducing their long exposures. Their long exposure in stock futures were at multi year high in the month of June. However since then, we have been witnessing the decline in their long position. In the March series, net stock futures contracts have gone to new 3 year low.
7,00,000 Exhibit 4: FII Stock Futures 6,00,000
5,00,000
4,00,000
3,00,000
2,00,000
No. of Contracts of No. 1,00,000
0
-1,00,000
-2,00,000
28-10-2018 31-01-2018 02-03-2018 01-04-2018 01-05-2018 31-05-2018 30-06-2018 30-07-2018 29-08-2018 28-09-2018 27-11-2018 27-12-2018 26-01-2019 25-02-2019 27-03-2019 26-04-2019 26-05-2019 25-06-2019 25-07-2019 24-08-2019 23-09-2019 23-10-2019 22-11-2019 22-12-2019 21-01-2020 20-02-2020 21-03-2020 20-04-2020 20-05-2020 19-06-2020 19-07-2020 18-08-2020 17-09-2020 17-10-2020 16-11-2020 16-12-2020 15-01-2021 14-02-2021 16-03-2021 01-01-2018 Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
Edelweiss Wealth Research 13
March Series
In Index Futures, FII activity in the March series remain muted. The net long contracts from the end of Feb series to the end of March series remain unchanged. Currently, FII net position stand at 26k long contracts which is at the lower end of its trading range.
Exhibit 5: FII Index Futures 1,00,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0 No of Contracts of No -20,000
-40,000
-60,000
17-09-2020 25-06-2020 09-07-2020 23-07-2020 06-08-2020 20-08-2020 03-09-2020 01-10-2020 15-10-2020 29-10-2020 12-11-2020 26-11-2020 10-12-2020 24-12-2020 07-01-2021 21-01-2021 04-02-2021 18-02-2021 04-03-2021 18-03-2021 11-06-2020 Source: Edelweiss Wealth Research
Edelweiss Wealth Research 14
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Vinay Khattar Head Research [email protected]
Edelweiss Wealth Research 15
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Edelweiss Wealth Research 16
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Edelweiss Wealth Research 17