Arab Reform Brief

36 November 2012

Kuwait: The Crisis and its Future

Mohammad Alwuhaib *

It is not possible to understand a book by simply reading its last page. Likewise, it is not possible to understand what is happening in today without reviewing the previous episodes of crises that have generated the state of affairs we see today, which many have described as a state of crisis from which it is difficult to exit without opening political wounds. This paper will highlight a group of historical events that bear the seeds of the current crisis. It will also briefly shed some light on some of the central concepts for understanding Kuwaiti political mobilization. The first of these concepts is the nature of the Kuwaiti government. The second is the current constitution, which defines not only the nature and roles of the three powers, but also the very nature of today’s current conflict.

The fifty-year-old Kuwaiti constitution that captured in the outcomes of elections and the Kuwaitis consider to be the founding charter will of the Emir and his ministers founded in for their democratic experience establishes a a separate vision. As a result of this coupling that appears illegitimate at first contradiction, it is not guaranteed that these glance. This coupling is between a democratic two wills will reach an agreement. system that grants sovereignty to the nation Thus, we face a state whose internal (Article 6 of Section 1) and a traditional composition contains various elements that monarchical system that gives broad powers are at the very least undemocratic, including to the Emir including the power to appoint remnants of obsolete social systems like and dismiss the prime minister and other religion, tribe, and monopolization of power. cabinet members (Article 56 of Section 2). However, I tend to think that the There is a contradiction between two distinct constitutional system in Kuwait is the result wills: The will of a given people at a given of a specific phase of Kuwait’s history and time founded in a particular vision as the product of the mainstream culture at the

* Professor of political philosophy at Kuwait University and the Head of the Kuwait Center for Active Citizenship 2 time it was drafted. If we keep this in mind, towards power is that it lacks any intellectual we could understand the current demands of basis. Political pragmatism so to speak is the most of the youth and political movements to hallmark of this mentality. There is no room amend the constitution that was drafted fifty for discussing an ideology, a clear and distinct years ago and no longer accommodates the political platform, or even some of the ambitions of many of the people. intellectual principles that lie behind regime The other relevant issue is that the Kuwaiti actions. Everything is negotiable; everything is usable, under certain conditions. Therefore, constitution has codified the state of affairs that had prevailed at the time, i.e. the ancient the biggest problem for conservative regimes tribal rule of Al Sabah family. Although the lies in their total refusal of change. As we constitution regulates and organizes the rule have seen, it appears that this refusal is a of Al Sabah (by only referring to the royal direct result of the fact that these regimes lack the tools for change that are required and family via the Emir and the Crown Prince), the has always been an effective imposed by democratic regimes whose rule is and strong party in the management of state based on continuous dialogue between affairs. The prime minister is always a son of different points of view. the family; all “sensitive” or “sovereign” How did the Crisis Begin? A Historical ministries are reserved for the family, not to Perspective mention the existence of family council – an unofficial council that determines the many of Each new situation in the development of the relationships and roles of members of the Kuwaiti democracy has often been the royal family as well as the equilibrium among outcome of conflict between two different, the leading figures of the family. contradicting wills. This applies to the The interference of the royal family in the different stages of the development of management of state affairs via a side avenue Kuwaiti constitutional system until 1962 rather than an official constitutional avenue is when the current constitution appeared. This one of the most difficult aspects for those observation applies also to all the crises attempting to understand Kuwaiti politics. through which Kuwait has passed including Most of these interactions result from the current one. differences in the interests and visions held by It is useful to begin the history of the current individuals possessing significant influence in crisis by returning to 2006 when Sheikh the management of state affairs even if such Sabah Al Ahmed Al-Jabir was appointed individuals are not members of the after Sheikh Saad Abdullah government. Al Salim abdicated for health reasons. The The best description that we can offer for issue, however, does not stop here. The Emir Kuwaiti regime is to cast it as “conservative”. appointed his brother Sheikh Nawaf as Crown Conservative regimes seek to preserve the Prince and his nephew Sheikh Nasser al- status quo and refuse change. The principle Mohamed al-Ahmed as Prime Minister. The problem for this conservative mind-set distribution of ruling positions in this manner was a painful blow to the parties whom felt

3 that they too had the right to rule. These broke about the largest financial scandal in parties included the children from the Al the political wherein it was Salim branch of the royal family (whom have revealed that the financial accounts of many ruled Kuwait several times) and the children members of parliament had significantly from the Al Hamad branch of the royal family increased not long after they entered (which was excluded from the Emirship and Parliament. The subsequent massive, popular the position of crown prince until recently sit-ins and the marches that stormed when Sheikh Jabir al-Mubarak was appointed Parliament were not hard to explain away as a Prime Minister). vengeful response by Sheikh Ahmed Al Considering the fact that some of the Fahad against the Prime Minister whom had members of the royal family (especially those presented Al Fahad to the people and who belong to Mubarak branch and thus members of parliament as the one responsible for bribing those parliamentarians. possessing the right to become Emir) have significant economic, political and social However, it appears that there was also an weight, they have begun to wage fierce objective reason for the overwhelming public campaigns against the Prime Minister with anger. The government headed by Sheikh the aim of finishing his political career in Nasser Al Mohamed had always been weak. order to clear path to rule for themselves. This In just five years, it formed nearly six conflict between parties of the royal family is governments all of which were unable to pass played out in the Kuwaiti parliament, media through the different rounds of parliamentary outlets owned by members of the royal inquiry and failed to approve or apply any family, and Twitter through some Twitter development plans. This, in addition to other accounts. factors to be mentioned later, nourished The actual parties to the conflict, i.e. members displeasure towards the government’s of the royal family, have always worked performance. subtly and managed their conflicts behind the The sit-ins and demonstrations in Al Erada scenes. However, as a number of examples Square that led to the storming of parliament have demonstrated, the nature of conflict on 16/11/2011 successfully prompted the itself has generally pushed these parties to Prime Minister to again submit his resignation appear in public. After Sheikh Ahmed Al to the Emir. However, even though the Emir Fahad left the government after being had rejected Prime Minister’s resignation threatened with a parliamentary inquiry about several times previously, he had no choice but suspected corruption, many of the statements to accept it this time for it was the only in official newspapers on his dispute with the possible way to defuse the crisis and contain former Prime Minister Sheikh Nasser Al popular anger. In the midst of this tense Mohamed revealed that the Prime Minister atmosphere, the Emir dissolved the had prompted members of parliament to Parliament of 2009 on 6/12/2012 and summon Al Fahad in for questioning in order afterwards called for the election of a new to compromise his political career. Not long parliament (the Parliament of 2012). after Al Fahad left the government, news However, as these elections yielded a

4 majority opposition most of which was major Islamist trends in the Kuwaiti political Islamist and tribal, it was not long before the arena: The Salafis and the Muslim Constitutional Court issued a ruling that both Brotherhood. But, this does not necessarily invalidated this newly elected parliament due mean that all the youth movements were to a procedural error that had marred the Islamist, as there were also secular and Shi’a decree dissolving the former parliament and movements and some others that claimed to reinstated the Parliament of 2009. be independent. Today, the common cause of these movement is that most of its youth The parliamentary elections of 2012 were a landmark in the history of Kuwaiti leaders face court verdicts related to the democracy. Despite the brief, roughly four- storming of parliament. These verdicts have month life of the Parliament of 2012, the sentenced some militants to up to nine years elections that created it revealed large in prison. These verdicts might lead in the coming days to a larger youth mobilization to sectarian and social divisions within Kuwaiti society. Candidates from different religious pressure the government to recant its verdicts. sects and segments of society made excessive Kuwaitis perceived that the decree dissolving use of hate speech against one another. the Parliament of 2009 that was dominated by Government corruption and MPs financial bribery and political money to be a popular scandal in turn were a primary concern for decision that the people obtained only after candidates in their electoral rallies. many sacrifices and, thus, it was out of Consequently, those members of the 2009 question that this Parliament would Parliament suspected of bribery either chose reconvene. This is exactly what happened as not participate in the elections or lost the reconvened Parliament met only once. resoundingly. The dominant belief amongst Then, fearing a constitutional vacuum the Kuwaitis at these elections was that fighting Emir issued a decree that dissolved the corruption needed strong MPs, preferably Parliament of 2009 without calling for new Islamist ones. This belief might explain why elections. women did not manage to get elected during At the same time, anticipating that elections these elections. would produce an opposition parliament like Another factor that played an important role the Parliament of 2012, the government in these elections was the rise of new youth attempted to rearrange electoral districts by leaders in the political arena. These leaders contesting their constitutionality in front of fuelled much of the sit-ins and marches that the Constitutional Court. This provided led to the dissolution of the 2009 Parliament reason enough for the parliamentary majority and the acceptance of Prime Minister of the dissolved Parliament of 2012 to resignation. Some of these new youth leaders mobilize its constituents in Al Erada Square became members of parliament while others to refuse any change to the electoral districts remained on the outside. Ideologically, coming from outside of Parliament. The however, we cannot dissociate most of these Constitutional Court ruled that it did not have youth movements – or at least the most the jurisdiction to look at the equitable organized of these movements – from the distribution of the electoral districts, which

5 delighted the opposition majority in the exit. Some of its members suggested that the Parliament of 2012. This delight, however, movement open its doors to all the political did not last long. On 21/10/2012, the Emir and youth movements in the country issued a decree that amended the electoral regardless of their ideology and draw up a system and gave one vote, rather than four political agenda for reform that would votes, to each voter. This decree led to an become the electoral platform for the unprecedented, angry, popular mobilization, movement’s members in the next elections. which has produced the “Nation’s Dignity” While some of the independent youth marches that have led to the major crisis we movements and political forces responded see today. favorably to this invitation, the liberal and Shiite currents completely rejected it. And Today’s Crisis after an extended meeting, it was decided to call this new movement the “National Front The Parties of the Crisis for the Protection of the Constitution”. The two primary parties in the current The biggest problem faced by the members of political crisis are the regime on one side this front was how to come to an agreement represented by the emir and the government upon a common reform platform. Despite the and opposition majority of the Parliament of predominance of some veteran political 2012 on the other. After the dissolution of figures over these meetings which were held Parliament of 2002, this majority attempted to in their Dewaniya (reception area), the organize itself in a temporary political political caution these political figures movement, led by members of the disbanded practiced was not enough to curb the parliament. This movement called itself excitement of the youth. Consequently, the “Movement for the Reinstatement of veteran politicians had no choice but to Majority” and was propelled by groups of submit to the aspirations of the youth who supporters of different parliamentarians and have the capacity to constantly harass and the youth movements associated with political trouble the regime by fomenting unrest and groups of the most influential MPs, like the organizing sit-ins and other forms of tribes, the Muslim Brotherhood Youth, and mobilization. Seasoned politicians accepted the Salafi Youth. not because they completely agreed with this However, the futility of this movement program (as some of them had been members became quickly obvious as it appeared to be of parliament for several decades and never an incoherent movement whose members come up with such a platform) but rather differed on many issues and seemed to be because they were unwilling to lose these bound together only by their desire to return youth forces as an important tool in their to their seats in Parliament. This movement struggle with the regime. quickly realized its weakness and its lack of “The National Front for the Protection of the citizens’ trust and confidence. Afraid of Constitution” released the following as the failure, “Movement for the Reinstatement of basis for its reform platform: Majority” held several meetings to seek an

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1. Completing democratic development respond to and repress this popular towards a full parliamentary system; movement, it is also faced with other kinds of threats: an internal threat posed by the 2. Enacting a democratic law that allows the establishing of political parties; ambitious sheikhs and a regional threat that considers Kuwaiti democratization to be a 3. Enacting a new electoral law in threat to the stability of the entire Gulf region accordance with a single district, and believes that regime must drop the proportional representation, party list constitution altogether in order to fall into line system, and establishing an with other GCC countries. independent electoral authority; The ruling family has long dealt with the 4. Reforming, developing, and threat posed by the power aspirations of the supporting the independence of the offspring of Sheikh Mubarak either through judiciary, especially the establishment peaceful means like the norms and of an independent constitutional court equilibrium within the royal family, through in accordance with the article 173 of coercive political exclusion, or through force. the Constitution. However, the current conflicts between the Due to the limited space here, we will only leading figures of the royal family has taken discuss the first point. This point is a watered on a different form as disagreements are no down version of the youth’s constantly voiced longer resolved behind the closed doors of the demand for a constitutional emirate in which royal family or within the boundaries of the the royal family is restricted to holding just closely related political class. Today, conflict the positions of the Emir and Crown Prince between leading figures of the royal family clearing the way for the parliamentary has taken up a new dimension and these majority to select the Prime Minister from figures have started using new tools, foremost outside of the royal family. “Completing the among them the parliament and parliamentary democratic development towards a full inquiries, to embarrass each other and tarnish parliamentary system”, however, is a each other’s reputation before the general convoluted formula for the constitutional public. Additional examples of these new emirate (a demand that frightens many tools are the Internet and social media outlets Kuwaitis) and appears to be a product of such as blogs, Facebook, and Twitter. professional political action. And, unless the The bottom line is that for the first time ever Front achieves a parliamentary majority, its the Kuwaiti public has become aware of what program will remain merely ink on paper, as goes on behind scenes thanks to leaks here its desired reform is contingent upon and there by parties embroiled in this conflict occupying seats in parliament! via modern means of communication. Many of leading figures of the conservative Conflicts like this amongst the upper power regime are now attempting vigorously to repel echelons over governance and financial this attack and disperse the Front in a variety affairs have helped increase Kuwaitis’ feeling of ways. We ought to keep in mind that at the that the gap between the royal family and the same time that the regime is attempting to people has started to widen and that the time

7 has come for the people to take up the reins of stolen the right of the people to decide the power and straighten out affairs through form of their democracy. Indeed, this was cry different forms of popular pressure. shouted by the demonstrators in their recent Currently, it is not difficult to conclude that marches: “We will not allow you” that was that “The National Front for the Protection of part of a famous speech given by the famous the Constitution” appears to be the only opposition parliamentarian Musallam Al possible means to express this popular Barrak. The public prosecutor’s decision to pressure, as there is no other alternative. close the lawsuits against former MPs Therefore, we are faced with two parties of suspected of bribery added further fuel to the this crisis each of whom has its own priorities fire. and internal contradictions: the royal family The popular protests took a new form in this and the National Front for the Protection of crisis. Before they were just sit-ins that started the Constitution that is supported by youth and ended in Al Erada Square but now they movements enraged by corruption. Nor is it took the form of precisely planned marches difficult for us to recognize the shift in the gathered together at meeting points on maps National Front’s critical discourse which used published over social media. Despite the to be directed at the government and prime threat of the government to use force against minister but is now explicitly directed at the illegal marches, the protesting forces where emir. Fearing the loss of popular support, the not deterred from organizing the Nation’s opposition deferred the discussion of the Dignity march and the other marches that “constitutional emirate” (in which the Emir followed. would reign but not rule) and as alternative - The choice of the National Front for the that appears to merely be play on words- Protection of the Constitution to take the Emir proposed “a full parliamentary system”. This as the central target of their criticism has partial change in parties of the crisis led to a launched a new era in dealing with the new form for the crisis and this is the subject opposition. Instead of the previous manner of that we will address in the lines that follow. addressing crises via the government and Form of the Crisis prime minister, today the Emir is directly involved with the crisis. At the same time that The support of the youth and the tribal the first march descended to the streets, the movement has given the National Front for Emir called for an emergency meeting with the Protection of the Constitution an excellent leading figures of the royal family and the opportunity to escalate its pressure against the crown prince. The meeting was the occasion regime in an attempt to obtain its demanded for these figure to renew confidence in and reform. As we have seen, this pressure began loyalty to the Emir. The following day, the with opposing the submission of electoral law Emir met with tribal leaders and Dewaniya to the Constitutional Court. Opposition owners and gave a speech containing several persists today against the emir’s “necessity important messages: First, he announced that decree” that amended the voting system. he was personally aware that the members of Their main argument was that the emir had the royal family had exceeded the proper

8 boundaries in their conflicts and that he current circumstances, it is has become would be unrelenting in holding them difficult for both these wills to reach an accountable to the law. Second, he stated that agreement and that it appears that during the day of Nation’s Dignity march, he confrontation is inevitable. However, it had seen the end of the state and its authority nonetheless appears that this matter also and that the state itself was on the verge of needs some additional detail. falling apart. The manner of dealing with the Violence and chaos remain the principle events that followed confirmed this new issues for both parties. The opposition hopes policy towards opposition. MPs were accused to lure the regime into violently assaulting of insulting the Emirship, and bloggers and citizens in order to break the close tie binding tweeters were dealt with firmly. It remains to the Al Sabah family to the people. The be determined whether or not some of the opposition did not hesitate to use all available leading figures of the royal family have been media outlets to raise the level of popular prohibited from engaging in the political discontent against the royal family. The sphere. regime on the other hand, is cognizant of its The form of the crisis in Kuwait today capacity to crush the opposition. To date, the depends a lot upon its parties. Neither the regime has been able to emerge victorious Emir nor the National Front is willing to from several previous confrontations although make concessions and they may in fact be such confrontations occurred in atmosphere unable to do so. Any concession by the Emir different from that of the Arab Spring today. towards revoking the decree as is desired by Although the regime could threaten to resort the National Front will certainly weaken the to GCC Peninsula Shield Forces to curb State’s authority and rule of law and open the unrest just like what occurred in Bahrain, the door for all sorts of demands in the future. government is cognizant that such violence Any concession by the National Front will comes with a price that it is not willing to cause it to lose the trust of the youth and thus pay. The government does not want violence rob it of one of its best weapons in its battle as it would compromise its ties with the with the regime. It appears that this people nor does it want international pressure confrontation, as a direct result of having that would tarnish the image of Kuwaiti arrived at a dead end, is the only possible democracy. In this case, the alternative is the choice at the moment. This is what we will attempt on behalf of the regime to lure the discuss in detail in the next section. opposition into violence that would tarnish the reputation of the opposition and What Next? automatically isolate it. We first need to shed more light on the In parallel to the regime’s strategy for dealing contradiction between the two wills: the will with the opposition that has announced its of the conservative regime and the will of the intent to boycott elections, it appears that the opposition represented by the National Front regime intends to carry out new reforms for the Protection of the Constitution. We within the royal household. These reforms have said previously that in light of the intend to rearrange the positions of the

9 family’s members filling them with those it requires a deep understanding of the essence can negotiate with and excluding from them of this opposition. The Kuwaiti regime does those it cannot deal with. However, any good not have any doubt that the real engine and observer of the royal family, its alliances and organizer behind all opposition’s movements its schisms would be aware of the fact that the is the Muslim Brotherhood and its youth cake is far too small to feed everyone. Thus in cadres, especially its youth group “Nahj” that the end, every rearrangement of the ruling mobilizes tribesmen and youth via social household is just a temporary solution. One media outlets. The crushing victory achieved would be prompted to suggest a clear political by the global Muslim Brotherhood movement rupture by limiting the rule to one branch of in the Arab Spring countries has cast a Sheikh Mubarak’s offspring. This would shadow of fear over the Gulf regimes. The require a constitutional amendment which issue started in the with means that the Emir is in need of an amenable the vicious attack of the Muslim parliament that would allow this transition to Brotherhood’s cadres, which revealed its occur. It appears that the coming parliament, leaders’ relationships with their counterparts whose elections will be held in the beginning in Kuwait. At the time, many newspapers of December and will be boycotted by most wrote that the Kuwaiti regime had received of the political forces, would probably play confidential reports from the UAE on the this role . suspected activities of the group. The issue is not this simple, however. The However, regardless of the veracity of these regime is aware that the advent of such a rumors, it appears that the Kuwaiti regime has “sham” parliament would be perceived by the no doubt about the high degree of public opinion as one entrenched in organization of the demonstrations and corruption, which would subsequently cause marches. Marches are determined according an outbreak of popular anger and a new cycle to simplified maps available to the public and of unrest. Today, the wager of the regime alternative maps in the event of intervention appears to be clear: most election boycotts in by the security forces. In addition, the past ended up with those boycotting international observers, photographers and isolated from the street and the media, which medical teams accompany each march, not to automatically cause the ranks of the mention the symbolic message the opposition to dismantle and its electoral bases demonstrators wanted to send by ending their to crumble. The challenge facing the regime march at Qasr Al Saif (the palace of the is thus related to time: the longer the crisis Emir). All this could hardly be orchestrated continues the more it loses momentum. (This by excited youth groups who are still depends upon the natural boredom that newcomers to politics. afflicts people from repeating meager It does not appear that security response will demonstrations that do not achieve anything). be successful in checking this type of Today, dismantling the opposition appears to organized mobilization. Likewise, it does not be the true challenge facing the regime in appear that the regime has been successful in Kuwait. Achieving this goal, however, its youth-oriented program, which at its

10 essence had sought to contain a large number The regime, however, continues to bet upon of Kuwaiti youth. In sum, it is not possible for some weak points of the current opposition. the regime to limit itself to reacting to the The most important of these points are the opposition without a strong and robust vagueness of its reform platform and its program as a basis for its rule. If the regime inability to convince people. Also, this vague does not yield the tools of changes today and platform seems unable to penetrate other attempt to change itself voluntarily, it will societal groups such as the urbanites, the find itself forced to accept the change that Shiites, some Islamists like the Salafis, and others impose upon it. the silent tribesmen whom to date remain part of the patronage and interests network that the rentier state has established over the past decades. This network will oppose every possible radical change to economy or interests around which it has been

constructed.