I-95 Transit/ TDM Study LRTP Advisory Committee September 27, 2017

1 Scope of Work & Schedule

. Task 2: Literature Review and Existing Conditions . Task 3: Market Analysis and Prioritization Methodology . Task 4: Transit Route Recommendations . Task 5: TDM Plan . Task 6: Draft and Final Report

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 2 Transit Service Improvement Options . Commuter • Up to 8 routes by 2024 • Up to 9 routes by 2030 • Up to 13 routes by 2045 • Reverse peak route • Commuter lot expansion . VRE Service Improvements • Without commuter bus, how much new service is needed to satisfy demand? • Includes feeder service to Spotsylvania, Leeland Rd, Brooke, and Quantico Stations . Vanpool • Expand and maintain existing vanpool service as market supports . TDM Strategies • Marketing & incentives • Last-Mile connections

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 3 Transit Service Improvement Scenarios

. Scenario 1: Commuter Bus service introduced • Growth and excess transit demand absorbed by commuter bus, VRE, and vanpools • 13 routes by 2045 • Reverse peak / supplemental VRE route • Feeder routes to commuter lots & VRE stations • Commuter lot & VRE lot expansion • TDM strategies . Scenario 2: Commuter Bus service not introduced • All growth is absorbed by VRE and vanpools • Feeder routes to commuter lots & VRE stations • Commuter lot & VRE lot expansion • TDM strategies

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 4 Transit Service Improvement Scenarios

Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Excess Demand Background Growth

Commuter Bus

VRE

VRE Commuter

Bus

VRE

VRE

Feeder Services Feeder Services Feeder

Vanpool

Vanpool Services Feeder Vanpool

Vanpool Services Feeder

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 5 Commuter Bus Operators

. 2 main options: • Service operated by PRTC or FRED • Directly operated or bid out to a private entity like MARTZ • Service operated by a new, regional transit authority • Directly operated or bid out to a private entity like MARTZ

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 6 Review of Vanpool Growth - 2024 . Cumulative growth in vanpool riders using growth rates from demand model Scenario 1 Scenario 2

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 7 Review of Vanpool Growth - 2030 Scenario 1 Scenario 2

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 8 Review of Vanpool Growth - 2045 Scenario 1 Scenario 2

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 9 Net Ridership Estimates

. Net increases over 2015 model year . Scenario 1 yields more total ridership due to “induced demand” from having an additional transit mode: • Increased transit frequency = increased total transit ridership • More transit modes = increase total transit ridership, it gives people more options

Scenario 1 2024 2030 2045 Scenario 2 2024 2030 2045

Commuter Bus 561 1,036 1,425 Commuter Bus 0 0 0

VRE -200 212 1,356 VRE 116 618 1,886

Vanpool 201 347 1,268 Vanpool 351 711 1,488

Total Increase 561 1,595 4,049 Total Increase 468 1,329 3,374

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 10 Scenario 1 - Lot Needs . Commuter Bus service, VRE growth, and vanpool growth results in increased utilization – mitigated in part by planned expansions

Unoccupied Park and Ride Spaces by Horizon Year with Planned Expansions

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 11 Scenario 2 – Park and Ride Lot Needs . VRE growth and vanpool growth results in increased utilization– mitigated in part by planned expansions

Unoccupied Park and Ride Spaces by Horizon Year with Planned Expansions

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 12 Resource Need – Increase over Current . Assumptions • All proposed commuter bus routes • 6-10 trips per day on reverse commuter bus route • Feeder routes meet every VRE train • similar to PRTC and FRED for commuter bus and feeder routes • VRE includes purchase of 16 new rail by 2025 – enough to satisfy demand • VRE operating costs are net increase over 2018 • Park and Ride Lot expansion costs are based on surface parking costs, not structured parking costs

Scenario 1 Total Operating Operating Subsidy Capital Vehicles Improvement 2024 2030 2045 2024 2030 2045 Total 2024 2030 2045

Commuter Bus $3,356,139 $5,377,270 $9,042,638 $1,376,017 $2,204,681 $3,707,482 $93,769,296 28 39 54 Reverse Commuter Bus $652,971 $946,447 $1,414,862 $267,718 $388,043 $580,093 $0 0 0 0 Feeder Routes $1,147,513 $2,494,888 $4,848,553 $1,017,844 $2,212,966 $4,300,666 $10,060,215 13 17 23 VRE $15,727,000 $34,067,000 $89,319,000 $6,097,000 $11,778,000 $30,973,000 $44,774,566 0* 2* 11* Vanpool - - - $0 $0 $0 $0 0 0 0 Park and Ride Lot Expansion ------$14,868,006 - - -

Scenario 2 Total Operating Operating Subsidy Capital Vehicles Improvement 2024 2030 2045 2024 2030 2045 Total 2024 2030 2045

Commuter Bus $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 0 0 Reverse Commuter Bus $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 0 0 0 Feeder Routes $1,147,513 $2,494,888 $4,848,553 $1,017,844 $2,212,966 $4,300,666 $10,060,215 13 17 23 VRE $15,727,000 $34,067,000 $89,319,000 $6,097,000 $11,778,000 $30,973,000 $70,488,453 1* 5* 15* Vanpool - - - $0 $0 $0 $0 0 0 0 Park and Ride Lot Expansion ------$12,272,436 - - - * Number of train cars needed to satisfy demand I-95 Transit/TDM Study 13 Pros/Cons Across Modes

Commuter Bus VRE Vanpool

• $4.85 - $5.55 to Quantico • $5.80 • MARTZ: $11.25 Cost to Rider (Per One-Way • $10.55 - $11.90 to • Parking: varies – some are free • PRTC: $6.90 Trip) Arlington/DC • Parking for van is necessary at • Parking: Free • Parking: Free job site

• Direct service to job sites and • Closer to job sites and less • Farther from job sites and little to no intermediate stops Travel Time intermediate stops more intermediate stops • No additional transfer necessary on destination side

• High • High • Traffic congestion possible • Traffic congestion possible on • Highest Reliability on local roads local roads • No traffic congestion • Highway traffic congestion • Highway traffic congestion mitigated by Express Lanes mitigated by Express Lanes

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 14 Ridership and Cost Comparison

. Between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

Scenario 1 Scenario 2

• Commuter Bus: 1,425 • Commuter Bus: 0 • VRE: 1,356 • VRE: 1,886 Net Ridership (2045) • Vanpool: 1,268 • Vanpool 1,488 • Total: 4,049 • Total: 3,374

Net Cost of Operating • $39.6 million annually • $35.3 million annually Subsidy (2045)

Net Cost of Capital (Cumulative through • $163.5 million • $92.8 million 2045)

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 15 TDM Plan

. Developed to support transit recommendations and other non- SOV modes in corridor . Four elements

GWRideConnect I-95 Multimodal Commuter Bus Target Marketing Marketing (Ongoing)

Enhanced First Mile/Last Commuter Mile Programs and Connections Services

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 16 TDM Plan – Target Marketing

. GWRideConnect I-95 Multimodal Target Marketing Campaign • 8-month campaign, focused two months on each mode with target messaging and graphics • Vanpool, , bus, VRE (coordinate with VRE) • Send users to GWRideConnect website and VRE website • Begin campaign two years before first commuter bus routes begin, revisit campaign every two years • Roll-out other TDM elements before launching new bus routes, including enhanced commuter programs • Include regular marketing in off-years to maintain awareness • Focus on GWRC regional media: Print, online, radio, and targeted social media

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 17

TDM Plan – Commuter Bus Marketing . Community buy-in and involvement are critical • Planning and Promotion • Develop coordinated roll-out marketing plans (including ceremonies) for launch of new routes • Use earned media to create regional buzz • Incorporate FRED services into Commuter Bus Marketing  show how the services complement each other • Design • Work with local artists design bus wraps or promotional materials (similar to FRED) • Develop “Name the Route” or similar regional contests • Consider local preferences and impacts when choosing colors, design . Commuter Incentives • Review other regional commuter bus roll-out incentives for options, including PRTC; consider limited number of free/reduced price ride passes for new commuter bus routes during first month of service, if needed

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 18 TDM Plan – Enhanced Commuter Programs

. Enhanced Vanpool Program Services • Increase VanStart and VanSave subsidy/seat to $200 subsidy/seat for a six month period of time for all vans meeting program criteria (currently $150 subsidy/seat) • Coordinate with Vanpool Alliance and others on vanpool app that finds empty seats in real time • Enhanced ridematching to help vanpool formation

. Real -time Information • Use real-time counters in commuter parking lots to identify empty spaces and tie into vanpool app, help commuters plan their commute • Coordinate with providers on regional mobile app with fixed route bus routes + vanpool information

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 19 TDM Plan – First Mile/Last Mile

. First Mile/Last Mile Connections • Include feeder routes in Commuter Bus and VRE target marketing • Coordinate with local planners to identify current or future Park and Ride locations with adjacent residential or mixed- use land uses • Include bicycle/pedestrian connections from adjacent neighborhoods to Park and Rides in regional plans and transportation funding opportunities • Include bikeshare proposed for Fredericksburg area and existing bikeshare systems in NoVA and DC • Identify opportunities for ridehailing pick-up/drop-off areas at crowded Park and Rides

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 20 Next Steps

. Finalize TDM recommendations & provide cost estimates to support other improvements

I-95 Transit/TDM Study 21