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Implications of HTC's Guidance Electronics / Regional 24 November 2011 Asia Electronics Sector mainly to HTC’s mid-to high-end only temporary as the trend for next Implications smartphones with its high-pixel lens. year is mid-to-low-end smartphones Hence, we believe Largan will be and they believe sales momentum of HTC’s affected by HTC’s market share loss in should resume in 1Q12 with new high-end smartphones. Also, our model launches. J Touch and guidance cut research indicates that Largan is likely YoungFast are aggressive in China’s to lose orders from HTC given an low-priced smartphone market. increasing number of new lens Eric Chen (852) 2773 8702 providers, such as Kantatsu (Not TPK (3673 TT, NT$387, Buy [1]) [email protected] listed). and Wintek (2384 TT, NT$19.9, Outperform [2]) currently derive Alex Chang Plastic surface painting: (886) 2 8788 1584 only 6-8% of their sales from HTC, so [email protected] Waystech (Not rated) Our the impact should be quite minimal. research indicates that HTC currently We see the impact as even smaller for Chris Lin contributes 70-80% to Waystech’s (886) 2 8788 1614 AU Optronics (2409 TT, NT$13.3, [email protected] sales, but we believe the impact for Hold [3]), as HTC only accounts for Waystech may be softened with its 2-3% of its total sales currently. Jenny Shih market share increased on the HTC (886) 2 8780 1326 [email protected] side given HTC’s increased proportion Semiconductors: Qulacomm of low-priced smartphone shipments. (QCOM US, US$52.03, Outperform [2]) and MediaTek Casing: Catcher Technology We believe the impact on Qualcomm, • Largan, Catcher, Waystech, J (2474 TT, NT$147, Outperform Touch, Luminous Optical, HT Skyworks (Not rated), and Nvidia [2]) HTC accounts for about 20% of (Not rated) is quite limited. Even Energy and Unitech have high Catcher's sales currently. We believe though HTC is now Qualcomm’s sales exposure to HTC weaker-than-expected shipment largest client (15-20% of its total sales), • Buy Samsung and MediaTek, momentum at HTC would reduce our we believe Qualcomm will offset order given HTC's market share loss 4Q11 top-line forecast by 3-4%. losses from HTC with order increases However, as Apple (mainly the from other smartphone makers given • Reaffirm Sell on Largan Macbook) still accounts for around its high global smartphone IC market 40% of Catcher's sales, we believe share exceeding 70%, which we What's new shipment momentum should still be We see the following implications believe makes Qualcomm's sales solid in 2012. Also, we expect metal growth trend related more to growth from HTC's (2498 TT, NT$526, Hold casing to continue to be adopted in in the global 3G smartphone market. [3]) cut in its 4Q11 sales guidance handsets in 2012 since casing is only However, we believe global brand (announced on 23 November). 1) HTC 3-4% of the overall handset bill of smartphone makers' shipment growth should continue to lose market share material (BOM) cost. HTC’s low-end may slow from 2012, while low-priced in high-end smartphones to Apple smartphone, Chacha, is adopting smartphones should be the major (AAPL US, US$366.99, Outperform metal casing rather than plastic casing. growth segment. We forecast China [2]) and Samsung Electronics (SEC) Rising adoption of the Ultrabook 3G + smartphone shipments of 140m (005930 KS, W943,000, Outperform should also give Catcher further units in 2012, ie, 170% YoY growth. [2]). 2) HTC’s supply chain players are upside potential. Therefore, we likely to see order losses. 3) Low- believe the stock’s recent sharp sell-off What we recommend priced smartphones should be the should create a good entry point. We suggest staying away from HTC major growth driver for the 3G and Taiwan component makers. We smartphone market in 2012. Panels and touch panels: suggest investors accumulate SEC, YoungFast (Not rated) and J Compal Communications (8078 TT, What's the impact Touch (Not rated) NT$44.1, Buy [1]), and MediaTek Camera lenses: Largan Both could be affected significantly, as (2454 TT. NT$273.5, Outperform Precision (3008 TT, NT$473.5, HTC accounts for 20% of their total [2]) given their better smartphone Sell [5]). Largan (13-15% of sales sales. However, their managements market positions. from HTC currently) is exposed commented that the impact should be Important disclosures, including any required research certifications, are provided on the last two pages of this report. Electronics / Regional 24 November 2011 HTC: supply chain Revenue contribution HTC's order allocation Component Ticker Manufacturer from HTC to component vendors Power Amplifier SWKS US Skyworks 70% RFMD US RFMD 30% RF Switch 6758 JP Sony 65% SWKS US Skyworks 30% RFMD US RFMD 5% RF module 3152 TT ACXC 1% 2% 6981 JP Murata 98% LCD 6758 JP Sony 3.7"+4" (SLCD) 27% 6753 JP Sharp 4.3" (TFT+LTPS) 37% 6501 JP Hitachi 13% 2409 TT AUO 2-3% 12% 034220 KS LGD 11% AMOLED+Touch 006400 KS Samsung SDI 100% Light sensor INTL US Capella 83% ISIL US intersil 17% G sensor (Accelerometer) Private AKM 100% CPU QCOM US Qualcomm 15-20% (HTC become largest client for Qualcomm from 3Q11) 100% NVDA US Nvidia 0% 0%(so far) Memory 005930 KS Samsung 70% 6502 JP Toshiba 30% Baseband Modem QCOM US Qualcomm 100% Private ST Ericsson 0% 0% (so far) PWM (Pulse-width modulation) TXN US Texas Instrument 100% Camera Lens 3008 TT Largan 13% 100% Private Kantatsu 0% 0%(so far) VCM (Voice coil motor) 6762 JP TDK 100% Camera module 2301 TT Lite-on 3% 65% Private Altus Technology (FIH's subsidiary) 35% Camera Sensor OVTI US Onivision 30% 005930 KS Samsung Electronics 70% Connector 2392 TT Foxlink 5% 100% Crystal 3042 TT TXC <2% 30% 6724 JP Sekio Epson 70% Acoustic 2439 TT Merry 5% 3% 2018 HK AAC 5-10% 97% Touch Panel 3622 TT Young Fast 15%-20% 10% 2384 TT Wintek 6% 10% 3584 TT Jtouch 20% 10% 3673 TT TPK 7-8% Plastic casing 3508 TT Waystech 70-80% 30% Aluminium casing 2474 TT Catcher 20% 100% Plastic surface painting 3508 TT Waystech 70-80% 100% Cover lens 3471 TT Luminous Optical 70% 20% Battery module 6170 TT HT Energy (Welldone) 50% 33% PCB 2367 TT Unitech 30-35% 50% 3037 TT Unimicron 5% 50% Source: Daiwa estimates - 2 - Electronics / Regional 24 November 2011 Samsung Electronics: share price and Daiwa recommendation trend Date 28/10/2011 27/09/2011 07/07/2011 28/01/2011 22/12/2010 06/10/2010 30/04/2010 Target price 1,100,000 1,000,000 1,100,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 970,000 1,080,000 Rating 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Date 07/04/2010 29/01/10 30/10/09 Target price 1,040,000 970,000 920,000 Rating 2 2 2 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,080,000 1,200,000 1,100,000 1,100,000 1,100,000 1,040,000 970,000 970,000 1,000,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 ` 200,000 0 Jul-10 Jul-11 Oct-09 Oct-10 Apr-10 Oct-11 Apr-11 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jun-10 Jun-11 Mar-10 Mar-11 Feb-10 Feb-11 Nov-09 Dec-09 Aug-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Aug-11 Sep-11 May-10 May-11 Target price (W) Closing price (W) Source: Daiwa - 3 - Electronics / Regional 24 November 2011 Disclaimer This publication is produced by Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, and distributed by Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. and/or its non-U.S. affiliates, except to the extent expressly provided herein. This publication and the contents hereof are intended for information purposes only, and may be subject to change without further notice. Any use, disclosure, distribution, dissemination, copying, printing or reliance on this publication for any other purpose without our prior consent or approval is strictly prohibited. Neither Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd. nor any of its respective parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees, represent nor warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein or as to the existence of other facts which might be significant, and will not accept any responsibility or liability whatsoever for any use of or reliance upon this publication or any of the contents hereof. Neither this publication, nor any content hereof, constitute, or are to be construed as, an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any of the securities or investments mentioned herein in any country or jurisdiction nor, unless expressly provided, any recommendation or investment opinion or advice. Any view, recommendation, opinion or advice expressed in this publication may not necessarily reflect those of Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd., and/or its affiliates nor any of its respective directors, officers, servants and employees except where the publication states otherwise. This research report is not to be relied upon by any person in making any investment decision or otherwise advising with respect to, or dealing in, the securities mentioned, as it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any person. Daiwa Securities Capital Markets Co. Ltd., its parent, holding, subsidiaries or affiliates, or its or their respective directors, officers and employees from time to time have trades as principals, or have positions in, or have other interests in the securities of the company under research including derivatives in respect of such securities or may have also performed investment banking and other services for the issuer of such securities.
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