London Borough of Camden CAM DEN RETAIL S TU DY

F inal Rep ort October 2008

ROG ER TY M & PARTN ERS

F airfax H ouse 15 F ulwood Place London WC1V 6H U t (020) 7831 2711 f (020) 7831 7653 e london@ tymconsult.com w www.tymconsult.com

Th is document is formatted for double-sided p rinting.

RTP J ob N umber - P1775

CON TEN TS

1 IN TRODU CTION ...... 1 Background ...... 1 S tudy Aims and Ap p roach ...... 1 2 POLICY CON TEX T AN D RECEN T RES EARCH ...... 7 Policy Contex t ...... 7 Recent Research ...... 15 3 CU RREN T S H OPPIN G AN D LEIS U RE PATTERN S IN TH E S TU DY AREA ...... 21 Comp arison G oods S h op p ing...... 22 Conv enience G oods S h op p ing ...... 26 Leisure Activ ity ...... 29 S ocio-demograp h ics ...... 31 K ey M essages...... 32 4 PROF ILE OF V IS ITORS TO CAM DEN AN D IS LIN G TON CEN TRES ...... 35 V isitor Ch aracteristics ...... 35 Trip Ch aracteristics ...... 37 S p ending Ch aracteristics ...... 39 Transp ort and Accessibility Ch aracteristics ...... 42 V isitor Attitudes ...... 43 K ey M essages...... 47 5 TH E N EED F OR ADDITION AL RETAIL F LOORS PACE ...... 49 Background ...... 49 N eed Assessment ...... 50 Comp arison G oods N eed...... 50 Conv enience G oods...... 56 K ey M essages...... 59 6 REV IEW OF EX IS TIN G CEN TRES ...... 61 M ajor Centres...... 61 District Centres...... 63 Centres/frontages/areas With in th e Central Actv ities Z one...... 67 K ey M essages...... 70 Conclusions on th e Centre H ierarch y ...... 70 7 S U M M ARY AN D CON CLU S ION S ...... 73 S urv ey Conclusions and S h op p ing Patterns...... 73 H ealth ch eck Conclusions...... 74 F orecast Retail N eed...... 76 Accommodation of N eed...... 77

Camden Retail S tudy Draft F inal Rep ort

1 IN TRODU CTION Background 1.1 In August 2003 th e London Borough of Camden commissioned Roger Tym & Partners to carry out a retail study for th e Borough to inform th e rev iew of th e retail/town centre p olicies and strategies contained with in th e Camden U DP 2000. Th e study was p ublish ed in N ov ember 2004. F ollowing th e adop tion of a rep lacement U DP in J une 2006, th e Council h as begun p rep aration of its Local Dev elop ment F ramework (LDF ), with th e Core S trategy th e first p riority. 1.2 Alth ough much of th e research in th e N ov ember 2004 study remains v alid, London Borough of Camden wish es to ensure th at th e ev idence wh ich informs th e Core S trategy and oth er DPDs is robust and credible, in order to ensure th eir soundness1. It h as th erefore commissioned Roger Tym & Partners to p rep are a new retail study, drawing in p art on th e research undertaken for th e 2004 study.

S tudy Aims and Ap p roach S tudy Aims 1.3 Th is study aims to up date much of th e work undertaken for th e 2004 retail study, to p rov ide p art of th e ev idence base for th e London Borough of Camden LDF . In p articular it aims to: ° Prov ide an up to date summary of th e p lanning p olicy contex t and research , p articularly th at p ublish ed since th e 2004 rep ort; ° Prov ide Borough -wide q uantitativ e estimates of ex isting and future floorsp ace need for retail, based on th e surv eys of retail p atterns undertaken for th e 2004 and on up to date p rojections of ex p enditure, floorsp ace efficiency, e-tailing and p ip eline retail dev elop ment sch emes; ° Comp are th e q uantitativ e p rojections with th ose p rep ared for th e G LA, and seeks to p rov ide a general ex p lanation of any discrep ancies, to assess wh eth er th is migh t suggest a need for a strategy wh ich div erges from th at set out in th e London Plan; ° Ap p raise th e v itality and v iability and function of th e Borough ‘s centres, including analysis of th e ap p rop riateness of th e current retail h ierarch y; ° Consider of th e imp lications of th e q uantitativ e analysis and h ealth ch ecks for each of th e centres; ° Consider th e ex tent to wh ich th e situation h as ch anged since th e comp letion of th e 2004 study, and conseq uently th e ex tent to wh ich th e strategy for retail/town centres set out in th e adop ted U DP remains adeq uate, th ough it stop s sh ort of making sp ecific recommendations. 1.4 U nlike th e 2004 study, th is rep ort does not address th e imp act of dev elop ment at K ing‘s Cross in detail, as p lanning p ermission for th is sch eme, wh ich includes a substantial retail element, h as now been secured. It is, h owev er, included as a commitment in th e retail modelling ex ercise. 1.5 Th e up dated work is set out in th is rep ort, wh ich rep laces th e 2004 rep ort. It draws on th e data and information wh ich informed th e 2004 study wh ere it remains v alid

1 ”Planning Policy S tatement 12: Local Dev elop ment F rameworks‘ makes clear th at local dev elop ment documents must be soundly based in terms of th eir content and th e p rocess by wh ich th ey are p roduced, and th at th ey sh ould be based up on a robust, credible ev idence base.

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and up to date. Accordingly, some p arts of th e 2004 rep ort are rep roduced in th is rep ort. S tudy Ap p roach 1.6 Our first step is to rev iew relev ant p lanning p olicy and research , including th at p ublish ed since th e 2004 rep ort. Our rev iew is set out at section 2. We th en rep roduce at section 3 our assessment of sh op p ing and leisure p atterns in th e London Borough of Camden and adjacent areas in 2004. Our starting p oint for th is assessment was to define a S tudy Area. We did so by identifying th e area from wh ich we considered London Borough of Camden centres to draw th e v ast majority of th eir locally generated trade. S h op p ing p atterns do not generally coincide with local auth ority boundaries and so it was necessary to cast th e S tudy Area boundary beyond London Borough of Camden to fully understand th e sh op p ing flows to centres such as K ilburn on th e western side of th e borough and Camden Town to th e east. Th e S tudy Area is th erefore formed of all of London Borough of Camden and London Borough of Islington, p lus a small number of wards in London Borough of Brent and th e City of Westminster. Th e S tudy Area is illustrated at F igure 1.1.

Roger Tym & Partners October 2008 2

Camden Retail S tudy Draft F inal Rep ort F igure 1.1

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1.7 A surv ey of a rep resentativ e samp le of h ouseh olds in th e defined S tudy Area was th en undertaken. Th e surv ey was telep h one based and samp led 1,000 h ouseh olds across th e S tudy Area in eigh t S tudy Area z ones (125 in each ). Th e surv ey asked a series of structured q uestions to determine wh ere h ouseh olds undertake th eir sh op p ing (sep arately for comp arison and conv enience goods2), th eir leisure activ ities (sep arately for A33 and D2 typ e activ ity) and also asked q uestions relating to mode of trav el, trip freq uency and sough t q ualitativ e v iews on th e ex isting p rov ision (a full ex p lanation of th e meth od emp loyed in th e surv ey is set out in section 3). 1.8 Th e information p rov ides market sh are data for th e town centres in and outside of th e S tudy Area, wh ich is essential background for th e need and imp act assessment work streams th at follow-on. Th e surv ey data identify wh ich p articular centres h ouseh olds in th e S tudy Area are v isiting for th eir sh op p ing needs, and crucially wh ere th ese centres are not with in London Borough of Camden, p rov ides useful insigh t of th e reasons wh y h ouseh olds are being drawn to centres elsewh ere. 1.9 In section 4 of th e rep ort we rep roduce th e p rofile of v isitors to centres in London Borough of Camden and London Borough of Islington centres from th e 2004 rep ort. Th is p rov ides a p icture of h ow each of th e centres functions and th e role th ey p lay for th e resident p op ulation. Th is task was ach iev ed th rough face-to-face surv eys of v isitors in a number of th e centres in London Borough of Camden and London Borough of Islington centres. A full ex p lanation of th e meth od and th e centres surv eyed is set out in S ection 4). N ot all th e LB Camden centres were surv eyed and th e p rincip al criterion used to determine wh ich were surv eyed was anticip ation of v isitor draw from beyond th e borough . 1.10 Th e key information drawn from th e surv ey concerns th e typ e of v isitors p resent in th e centres œ th at is th e p rop ortions of v isitors th at are local to th e area, from elsewh ere in London, th e U K or from abroad, along with th e reasons for th eir v isit and th e amount of ex p enditure made on comp arison and conv enience goods. Th is data is imp ortant in establish ing h ow much turnov er in th e centres is drawn from beyond th e S tudy Area. Th e surv ey also p rov ides a q ualitativ e rev iew of facilities in each centre. 1.11 We th en turn to assess th e need for additional retail floorsp ace (sep arately for comp arison and conv enience goods) in th e S tudy Area. We set out both th e detailed meth odology and our findings at section 5. In summary, th e ex ercise inv olv es a modelling ex ercise drawing on data from th e two surv eys referred to abov e, togeth er with p op ulation growth data and ex p enditure data (both current and forecasts of growth ). 1.12 Th e modelling ex ercise p roduces total ex p enditure forecasts incorp orating growth to 2012, 2017 and 2022 and 2027 from wh ich claims on th e ex p enditure are deducted, and th e residual ex p enditure totals are conv erted to a floorsp ace req uirement across th e S tudy Area. We also comp are our findings to recent research for th e M ayor of London on comp arison and conv enience goods floorsp ace need in th e cap ital.

2 Conv enience goods are: food and non-alcoh olic bev erages; alcoh olic drink (off-licence sales); tobacco; non-durable h ouseh old goods; and newsp ap ers and magaz ines. Comp arison goods are: books; cloth ing and footwear; furniture, floor cov erings and h ouseh old tex tiles; audio-v isual eq uip ment and oth er durable goods; h ardware and DIY sup p lies; ch emists‘ goods; jewellery, watch es and clocks; bicycles; and recreational and oth er miscellaneous goods. Th ese definitions are based on th e classification of indiv idual consump tion by p urp ose (COICOP) categories cited in M ap Info Information Brief 06/2. 3 S ince th e h ouseh old surv ey was undertaken th e Town and Country Planning (U se Classes) (Amendment) (England) Order 2005 h as introduced additional classes so th at th e former A3 use (food and drink) defined in th e Town and Country Planning (U se Classes) Order 1987 is now sp lit into th ree, A3 (restaurants and cafes), A4 (drinking establish ments) and A5 (h ot food take away).

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1.13 In section 6 we rev iew th e town centres in London Borough of Camden (and two Islington centres) to assess h ow each functions and th e role it p erforms. Th ese ”h ealth ch ecks‘ are undertaken th rough th e assessment of key p erformance indicators (K PIs) of town centre v itality and v iability. Th e assessment th erefore inv olv es gath ering p rimary and secondary information from a wide range of sources to inform assessment of th e K PIs. N o one K PI will demonstrate on its own h ow a town centre is p erforming, but taken togeth er th e ten indicators will p rov ide a sound barometer of p erformance and p oint to each centre‘s general outlook. Th e h ealth ch eck rev iew th erefore p rov ides th e contex t for establish ing wh ere any identified need for future floorsp ace growth sh ould be located with in th e Borough ‘s centres. 1.14 Th e rep ort concludes at section 7 by considering of th e imp lications of th e q uantitativ e analysis and h ealth ch ecks for each of th e centres, before ex amining th e ex tent to wh ich th e situation h as ch anged since th e comp letion of th e 2004 study, and conseq uently th e ex tent to wh ich th e strategy for retail/town centres set out in th e adop ted U DP remains adeq uate.

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2 POLICY CON TEX T AN D RECEN T RES EARCH Policy Contex t N ational Planning Policy and G uidance 2.1 At th e time of th e original rep ort, PPG 6 p rov ided guidance on retail and town centres. It h as now been sup erseded by PPS 6 wh ich , togeth er with PPS 1 and PPG 13, establish es fourteen fundamental p rincip les for retail and town centres, as follows: i) th e G ov ernment‘s p rimary objectiv e is to p romote, sustain and enh ance th e v itality and v iability of ex isting town, district and local centres as p art of a p ackage of initiativ es to p romote sustainable dev elop ment; ii) th e need ”to focus dev elop ment, esp ecially retail dev elop ment, in locations wh ere th e p rox imity of businesses facilitates comp etition from wh ich all consumers are able to benefit and max imises th e op p ortunity to use means of transp ort oth er th an th e car‘; iii) th e objectiv e of ”concentrating dev elop ment for uses wh ich generate a large number of trip s in p laces well serv ed by p ublic transp ort, esp ecially town centres, rath er th an in out-of-centre locations‘; iv ) th e need ”to maintain an efficient, comp etitiv e and innov ativ e retail sector‘; v ) th e need ”to ensure th e av ailability of a wide range of sh op s, emp loyment, serv ices and facilities to wh ich p eop le h av e easy access by a ch oice of means of transp ort‘; v i) th e need for p lans to establish a h ierarch y of centres and a strategy for th e location of emp loyment, sh op p ing, leisure, h osp ital, education and oth er uses wh ich generate many trip s so as to identify th e p referred locations for major retail and leisure inv estment in p articular and ensure th at all significant generators of trav el are well serv ed by p ublic transp ort; v ii) th e need to adop t a p lan-led ap p roach to th e p romotion of all typ es of new dev elop ment wh ich generate many trip s so as to ensure th at th ey are well serv ed by p ublic transp ort; v iii) th e need to adop t a seq uential ap p roach to selecting sites for new retail and leisure dev elop ment and oth er town centre uses - in areas wh ere th ere is a need and cap acity for such dev elop ment - wh ich is an ap p roach wh ich req uires flex ibility on th e p art of local p lanning auth orities, dev elop ers and retailers; ix ) th e need to incorp orate th e p rincip le of ”disaggregation‘ in ap p lying th e seq uential ap p roach , so th at large retail and leisure dev elop ment p rop osals are broken down into th eir constituent p arts in seeking to fit th em into ex isting town, district and local centres; x ) th e need to reduce ov erall trav el and th e demand for car trav el in p articular; x i) th e need to resist ap p lications for retail dev elop ment on land designated for oth er uses in an ap p rov ed dev elop ment p lan; x ii) th e twin req uirements th at ”new retail dev elop ments sh ould sup p ort th e G ov ernment's objectiv es for sustaining and enh ancing ex isting centres and sh ould be in accord with th e strategy for retail dev elop ment set out in th e dev elop ment p lan‘; x iii) th e need to p romote mix ed-use dev elop ments, esp ecially with in town centres, and max imise th e use of p rev iously dev elop ed brownfield land; and

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x iv ) th e need to imp rov e access to leisure, retail and oth er serv ices œ p articularly in local centres œ for residents of dep riv ed areas as p art of th e driv e to p romote social inclusion. 2.2 Th ese rep resent a rigorous set of p rincip les wh ich confirm th e p reference for town centre locations for all typ es of new dev elop ment wh ich generate many trip s. Edge-of- centre and out-of-centre retail and leisure dev elop ments rep resent, resp ectiv ely, th e less fav oured and last resort op tions; such retail and leisure dev elop ments can only be justified by ex cep tional circumstances wh ere th ey p ass each of th e six key national p olicy tests, as follows: ° th e ”need‘ test; ° th e seq uential ap p roach ; ° th e likely imp act on th e dev elop ment p lan‘s strategy; ° th e likely imp act on th e v itality and v iability of ex isting centres; ° accessibility by a ch oice of means of transp ort, including th e by foot and bicycle modes; and ° th e likely effect on trav el and car use. 2.3 H owev er, th e Wh ite Pap er ”Planning for a S ustainable F uture‘, p ublish ed in M ay 2007, indicates th at th e G ov ernment intends to rev iew th e current ap p roach in PPS 6, and th at it will rep lace th e need and imp act tests with a new test. Th is new test, it indicates, will focus on th e ”town centre first‘ ap p roach , but will av oid th e ”unintended effects‘ of th e needs test wh ich restrict comp etition and limit consumer ch oice. Draft p rop osals were p ublish ed in S ummer 2008. 2.4 PPS 6 indicates th at guidance on assessing need and imp act of new retail and leisure dev elop ment, ap p lying th e seq uential ap p roach , and strategies for smaller centres will be p ublish ed sep arately. Th ese documents h av e not yet been p ublish ed in draft or final form, and we susp ect th eir p ublication will be furth er delayed p ending th e p ublication of a new or rev ised PPS 6. 2.5 With regard to town centre h ealth , PPS 6 sets out th e key indicators wh ich local auth orities sh ould collect information on in order to measure th e v itality and v iability of th eir centres. Th ese are as follows: ° Div ersity of uses ° Amount of floorsp ace in edge-of-centre and out-of-centre locations ° Potential cap acity ° Retailer rep resentation ° S h op p ing rents ° Prop ortion of v acant p rop erty ° Commercial yields ° Pedestrian flows ° Accessibility ° Customer and residents v iews ° Crime and safety ° Env ironmental q uality

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Th e London Plan Background 2.6 A new v ersion of th e London Plan was p ublish ed in F ebruary 2008. It reflects all ch anges made to th e Plan since 2004 and forms th e S p atial Dev elop ment S trategy for G reater London. It p laces London Borough of Camden in ”N orth London‘, one of fiv e sub-regions. Th e borough was p rev iously located in th e Central London S ub-Region, wh ich h as now been sp lit between new sub-regions, th ough to counter th is th e Plan p laces a far greater emp h asis on th e Central Activ ities Z one, wh ich lies at th e intersection of a number of borough s and sub-regions, including Camden. 2.7 In terms of ov erall retail/town centre p olicy, Policy 2A.8 of th e Plan commits th e M ayor, and req uires borough s, to using th e network of town centres sh own on M ap 3D.1 as th e basis for p olicy dev elop ment and deliv ery with in th em. With in th e London Borough of Camden, M ap 3D.1 identifies Camden Town and K ilburn4 as ”M ajor Centres‘, togeth er with four district centres. Th ese district centres are identified in Annex 1, Table A1.1 of th e Plan as S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, K entish Town, H amp stead and West H amp stead. Th e same table furth er notes th at Camden Town and S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, K entish Town and H amp stead include clusters of nigh t time activ ities of more th an local imp ortance. 2.8 Th e map also sh ows th at th e Central Activ ities Z one cov ers th e south ern p art of th e borough , but Policy 2A.8 makes clear th at alth ough th e CAZ is of key economic imp ortance, th e M ayor will work with sub-regional p artnersh ip s and oth er agencies to imp lement a p olycentric strategy for London‘s dev elop ment. It furth er notes th at th is will be ach iev ed by: ° sustaining and enh ancing th e v itality and v iability of town centres including community and civ ic activ ities and facilities; ° accommodating economic and h ousing growth th rough intensification and selectiv e ex p ansion; ° reducing deliv ery, serv icing and road user conflict; ° meeting th e needs of Londoners and imp rov ing th e sustainability of London‘s dev elop ment; ° taking account of th e relationsh ip with town centres in adjoining sub-regions and in th e regions adjoining London, to p rov ide strategic direction for th e dev elop ment of th e network of centres. 2.9 Policy 2A.8 goes on to emp h asise imp ortance of a comp etitiv e retail sector, h igh ligh ting th e need to engage with dev elop ers and op erators to find sites wh ich fulfil th e req uirements of th e seq uential test. It furth er notes th at DPD p olicies sh ould: ° identify future lev els of retail and oth er needs in ligh t of integrated local and strategic assessments and enable th e sup p ly of cap acity to meet th ese; ° dev elop and enh ance th e network of International, M etrop olitan, M ajor, District and sp ecialist centres as sh own on M ap 3D.1 and Annex 1; ° identify more local and neigh bourh ood centres and th ose with distinct roles in meeting sp ecial needs; ° seek close p artnersh ip working with retailers and oth er stakeh olders to identify dev elop ments th at will sup p ort deliv ery of th is p lan‘s objectiv es, focusing it wh ere p racticable on town centres and wh ere th is is not p racticable on th e edge of town centres.

4 In fact, K ilburn straddles th e boundary of London Borough of Brent and London Borough of Camden, and th is is recognised at Table A1.1 of th e London Plan.

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2.10 Policy 3D.1 of th e London Plan deals sp ecifically with town centres, and notes th at th e M ayor will and borough s sh ould —enh ance access to goods and serv ices and strength en th e wider role of town centres, including DPD p olicies“, to: ° encourage retail, leisure and oth er related uses in town centres and discourage th em outside th e town centres; ° encourage forms of dev elop ment, op erational p ractice and consumer beh av iour wh ich will h elp to reduce carbon diox ide emissions; ° imp rov e access to and with in town centres by p ublic transp ort, cycling and walking; ° enh ance th e comp etitiv eness and q uality of retail and oth er consumer serv ices in town centres; ° sup p ort a wide role for town centres as locations for leisure and cultural activ ities, as well as business and h ousing and th eir key role in dev elop ing a sense of p lace and identity for sustainable local communities; ° req uire th e location of ap p rop riate h ealth , education and oth er p ublic and community serv ices in town centres; ° designate core areas p rimarily for sh op p ing uses and secondary areas for sh op p ing and oth er uses and set out p olicies for th e ap p rop riate management of both typ es of area; ° encourage net additions to town centre cap acity wh ere ap p rop riate to th eir role in th e ov erall network; ° undertake regular town centre h ealth ch ecks and integrated strategic and local consumer need and cap acity assessments; ° sup p ort and encourage town centre management, p artnersh ip s and strategies including th e introduction of Business Imp rov ement Districts in ap p rop riate locations and ap p rop riate p rov isions to sup p ort th e safety and security of town centres. 2.11 Policy 3D.2 deals with town centre dev elop ment and notes th at DPD p olicies sh ould: ° assess th e need and cap acity for additional retail, leisure, commercial and oth er town centre dev elop ment and reconcile th ese by making ap p rop riate p rov ision following th e seq uential ap p roach ; ° relate th e scale of retail, commercial and leisure dev elop ment to th e siz e and role of a centre and its catch ment and encourage ap p rop riate dev elop ment on sites in town centres in th e network, or wh ere sites are not av ailable on th e edge of centres; ° encourage additional comp arison goods cap acity in larger town centres and conv enience goods cap acity in smaller centres of ap p rop riate scale, esp ecially District centres, to secure a sustainable p attern of retail p rov ision; ° treat p rop osals for out of centre dev elop ment or for intensification or ex p ansion of ex isting out of centre retail facilities in line with Policy 2A.8; ° manage ex isting out or edge of centre retail and oth er serv ice p rov ision in line with th e seq uential ap p roach , seeking to reduce car dep endency and traffic generation and to imp rov e p ublic transp ort access to p romote more sustainable forms of dev elop ment. 2.12 A number of oth er p olicies are also relev ant. F irst, Policy 2A.4 deals with th e Central Activ ities Z one, wh ich as we note abov e ex tends into th e south ern p art of th e London Borough of Camden. M ap 5G .1 in th e Plan p rov ides an indicativ e boundary for th e CAZ , alth ough it makes clear th at th e detailed boundary sh ould be defined in DPDs.

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2.13 M ap 5G .1 also identifies key features and ch aracteristics of th e CAZ for p articular areas: ° Th e area of th e borough lying south of N ew Ox ford S treet and west of K ingsway is ch aracterised by a mix of uses with strong arts, cultural or entertainment ch aracter; ° Th at p art of Ch aring Cross Road running along th e boundary of th e borough is a CAZ frontage; ° M uch of K ingsway falling with in th e borough is a CAZ frontage, togeth er with p arts of H igh H olborn, th e eastern end of N ew Ox ford S treet and small sections of Euston Road; ° M uch of th e area east of K ingsway and south of H igh H olborn, togeth er with th e area around th e south ern p art of G rays Inn Road is ch aracterised by a mix of uses with a strong legal ch aracter; ° Tottenh am Court Road is a CAZ frontage and p art of th e West End S p ecial Retail Policy Area; ° Th e area east of Tottenh am Court Road is ch aracterised by a mix of uses with a strong academic ch aracter; ° Th e Tottenh am Court Road/Eastern Ox ford S treet area, Euston station area and K ing‘s Cross rail lands are Areas of Op p ortunity. 2.14 Th e basis for th e identification of CAZ frontages is not ex p lained in th e Plan, th ough p aragrap h 5.180 notes th at p rojected comp arison goods ex p enditure in th e CAZ sh ould be accommodated in K nigh tsbridge (20%) and th e West End (62%), with th e remainder elsewh ere in th e CAZ , with th e most ap p rop riate locations being th e oth er CAZ frontages. F urth ermore, Policy 5G .4 of th e Plan notes th at th e Central Area F rontages (p resumably th e same as CAZ frontages) sh ould be th e focus for enh anced and ex p anded retail p rov ision. Policy 5G .4 also notes th at a framework will be drawn up for th e West End S p ecial Retail Policy Area (with in wh ich Tottenh am Court Road falls), with a v iew to sup p orting, reinforcing and ex tending th e distinctiv e retail offer, togeth er with encouraging uses including h otels and restaurants. 2.15 Turning to th e Op p ortunity Areas identified, each of wh ich may h av e a bearing on future retail locations, th e Plan notes at section 5B th at: ° Th e location, accessibility and underuse of th e station airsp ace and adjacent areas at Euston p rov ide an op p ortunity for intensification; ° Th ere is substantial dev elop ment p otential to enh ance th e attractions of th e Tottenh am Court Road/Eastern Ox ford S treet area th rough dev elop ment sup p orted by enh anced p ublic transp ort accessibility associated with Crossrail; ° Th ere is an op p ortunity to create a sustainable business and residential community at K ing‘s Cross. 2.16 Th e Areas of Intensification, also identified by th e Plan at section 5B, may also h av e a bearing on future retail locations. Two Areas of Intensification lie in London Borough of Camden: ° Th e newly identified West H amp stead Area for Intensification, wh ere th ere is an op p ortunity to imp rov e th e links between rail, U nderground and bus as well as ach iev ing th e intensification of th e use of th e land. ° Th e H olborn Area for Intensification, wh ere th ere is an op p ortunity for th e area to benefit from imp rov ed p ublic transp ort cap acity and accessibility th rough mix ed use redev elop ment at h igh er densities. 2.17 Th e F arringdon/S mith field Area for Intensification is also of note, giv en th at it lies close to th e boundary of London Borough of Camden, th ough its p otential is unclear and is

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dep endent up on op erational rail req uirements and th e outcome of a rev iew of wh olesale markets in London. S ub-Regional Dev elop ment F ramework for Central London 2.18 Th e London Plan 2004 identified fiv e sub-regions with in London: Central, East, West, N orth and S outh . As we note abov e, London Borough of Camden fell with in th e Central London S ub-region, alongside th e City of Westminster, Islington, K ensington and Ch elsea, Lambeth , S outh wark and Wandsworth . S ub-regional dev elop ment frameworks were p rep ared for each of th e sub-regions and were intended to p rov ide guidance on th e imp lementation of p olicies in th e London Plan. 2.19 Th e S ub-Regional Dev elop ment F ramework for Central London was p ublish ed in M ay 2006 and addresses th e broad asp irations of th e London Plan 2004. It sh ould be noted, h owev er, th at th e London Plan 2008 (Consolidated with Alterations since 2004) makes clear th at th e nex t round of S ub-Regional Dev elop ment F rameworks will h av e a stronger emp h asis on p olicy imp lementation, and to reflect th is th ey will be known as S ub Regional Imp lementation F rameworks. M oreov er, th e sub-regions h av e been redrawn in th e London Plan 2008 (Consolidated with Alterations since 2004), and London Borough of Camden now falls in th e N orth sub-region. 2.20 G iv en th at th e sub-regional dev elop ment frameworks were intended to inform future rev isions of th e London Plan, th ey h av e been p artly sup erseded by th e p ublication of th e new, consolidated London Plan. N ev erth eless, th e S ub-Regional Dev elop ment F ramework for Central London p rov ides useful background and identifies a number of actions for London Borough of Camden related to retail and town centres at Action 1D (p 22): ° Wh en making p rov ision for anticip ated retail demand in LDF s, borough s are encouraged to undertake fine grained distributions of need and cap acity taking into account th e indicativ e sub-regional and borough need for new comp arison and conv enience goods retail floorsp ace to 2016 in Annex 4, Table 1D.1 and 1D.2. ° Borough s are asked to v erify th e p ip eline of retail floorsp ace, including th e strategically significant p rop osals in Annex 4, Table 1D.3, and consider th ese in ligh t of local assessments of need and th e seq uential test. ° Th e M ayor will continue to work with borough s and oth er stakeh olders to consider areas wh ere reconciliation of retail need and cap acity [may be needed], esp ecially th at associated with th e West End, wh ich may req uire coordination between th e Central London sub-region and its neigh bours. 2.21 Th e strategically significant p rop osals in London Borough of Camden identified in Annex 4, Table 1D.3 are: ° K ing‘s Cross (25,000 sq m additional comp arison floorsp ace; 3,000 sq m additional conv enience floorsp ace; estimated commencement of initial p h ase 2010); ° Camden œ Brunswick Centre (3,995 sq m additional conv enience floorsp ace; estimated commencement of initial p h ase 2004). 2.22 Table 2.2 of th e S RDF sets out a summary of p otential growth in town centres in th e sub-region to 2016. Th e p arts of th e table dealing with centres falling with in London Borough of Camden, in wh ole (Camden Town) or p art (K ilburn and th e West End), are rep eated in th e table below.

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Table 2.1 Potential growth to 2018 of town centres in London Borough of Camden London Total Indicativ e Office action Comment Centre Plan floorsp ace (sq comp arison Town m) floorsp ace Centre need (sq m) Category Reinforce uniq ue retail offer (based on breadth and ch oice of sh op p ing; Coordination of imp rov e Inter- 125,000 - p rov ision based accessibility; West End 1,497,000 national 185,000 on localised imp rov e sub-markets env ironment/p ublic realm; identify cap acity for additional retail floorsp acee

S trength en sp ecialist Camden 6,000 œ S ome mix ed M ajor 104,000 retail, Town 9,000 use leisure and cultural role

Integrated

3,000 œ N o strategic ap p roach to K ilburn M ajor 66,000 4,000 demand regeneration req uired S ource: London Plan S ub-Regional Dev elop ment F ramework, Table 2.2, p aragrap h s 153-158 and p aragrap h s 164-172

2.23 A furth er reference to Camden Town is made at section 1F of th e S RDF , wh ich notes th e ex istence of a cluster related to th e nigh t-time economy in th e centre. Th e centre is also addressed in Annex 1 of th e S RDF , wh ich notes th at th e centre‘s catch ment ex tends ”well beyond borough boundary drawing in v isitors and tourists to its uniq ue market and mix of retail, leisure and v ibrant ev ening activ ity‘. It furth er notes th at p ublic transp ort cap acity imp rov ements sh ould sup p ort th e role of th e town centre and th e p otential for intensification. London Plan S up p lementary Planning G uidance: Retail N eed Assessments 2.24 A draft v ersion of th e S PG on retail assessments was p rogrammed for summer 2007, th ough we susp ect it h as been delayed p ending consultation on a new or rev ised PPS 6. London Plan S up p lementary Planning G uidance for th e Central Activ ities Z one 2.25 Th e London Plan 2008 commits th e M ayor of London to p rep aring S up p lementary Planning G uidance on imp lementation of h is p olicies wh ich bear on CAZ . Th is h as not yet been p ublish ed.

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London Plan S up p lementary Planning G uidance on Town Centre, Retail and Leisure Issues 2.26 Th e London Plan 2008 commits th e M ayor of London to p rep aring S up p lementary Planning G uidance on town centre, retail and leisure issues. Th is h as not yet been p ublish ed. Rep lacement U nitary Dev elop ment Plan (Adop ted J une 2006) 2.27 Th e strategic p olicies for town centres, retail and entertainment (S 11 and S 12) indicate th at th e Council will seek to: ° [S ]up p ort th e ch aracter, function, v itality and v iability of centres by guiding ap p rop riate uses to th em and will seek th eir imp rov ement th rough town centre management, env ironmental, design, transp ort and p ublic safety measures; ° [P]rotect sh op s, serv ices and food and drink uses, inside and outside centres, wh ere th ey contribute to th e ch aracter and function of th e area, and minimise th e imp act to any area from th e ex ternal imp acts of dev elop ment with a sh op p ing, serv ice or entertainment ch aracter. 2.28 S ection 6 deals with retail and town centre uses and notes at p aragrap h 6.9 th at th e aims of th e p olicies in th is section are: ° to p romote th e success of Camden‘s centres; ° to p rov ide for and retain a range of retail (sh op s, serv ices and food and drink) and entertainment uses in ap p rop riate locations; and ° to p rotect local residents and areas from th e h armful imp act of such uses. 2.29 M ore sp ecifically, th e p olicies aim to: ° guide sh op p ing and serv ices towards Central London F rontages, Town Centres and N eigh bourh ood Centres, togeth er with a new town centre and local p arades in th e K ing's Cross Op p ortunity Area; ° guide food and drink and entertainment uses to Central London F rontages, Town Centres and th e K ing's Cross Op p ortunity Area; ° ensure th at new retail dev elop ment does not h av e unaccep table imp acts on th e v iability of centres; ° ensure th at non-retail uses do not h av e an unaccep table cumulativ e imp act on th e ch aracter of th e area in wh ich th ey are located; ° p rotect th e amenity, function, v itality and v iability of centres by only granting p ermission for dev elop ment outside U se Classes A1, A2, A3, A4, A5, B1a or D2 p rov ided th at th ey do not h arm th e centre as a sh op p ing area and a p lace to liv e; ° p rotect Central London F rontages, Town Centres and any focus of sh op p ing and serv ice uses establish ed in th e K ing's Cross Op p ortunity Area by resisting th e net loss of sh op p ing floorsp ace at ground floor lev el; ° ensure th at strong elements of conv enience sh op p ing are retained in N eigh bourh ood Centres, by resisting dev elop ment th at would p rev ent th e centre from being cap able of p rov iding a range of conv enience sh op p ing; ° p rotect local sh op s by only granting p ermission for dev elop ment wh ich would result in th e loss of sh op s (U se Class A1) wh ere it contributes to local ch aracter, function, v itality, v iability and amenity (with in th e Central London Area) or wh ere th ere is alternativ e p rov ision with in 5 to 10 minutes walk (outside th e Central London Area).

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Recent Research London Town Centre Assessment: S tage 1 - Comp arison G oods F loorsp ace N eed 2.30 Th e G reater London Auth ority (G LA) ap p ointed Ex p erian to assess current and future comp arison goods floorsp ace needs th rough out London, in order th at borough s and th e G LA can consider systematically th e p ossible future roles of centres. Th is p art of th e London Town Centre Assessment, S tage 1, was p ublish ed in S ep tember 2004. 2.31 Th e study focuses on p rojected demand for comp arison goods to 2016 and conv erting th at into a floorsp ace req uirement. It builds up on ex isting and forecast ex p enditure datasets across all borough s of London and identifies centres wh ere th e need for floorsp ace is greatest. 2.32 Th e study is intended to be a broad, strategic, region-wide assessment of th e baseline or gross floorsp ace need associated with th e centres wh ere th e need for additional floorsp ace is greatest, p rov iding th e contex t and coordination framework for more local and p recise studies to be undertaken for indiv idual borough s and dev elop ment p rop osals. 2.33 Th e study identified floorsp ace req uirements under four different scenarios: ° S cenario 1: with fix ed p roductiv ity growth , assuming a £4,000/sq m sales density for additional dev elop ments ° S cenario 2: with sp lit p roductiv ity growth , assuming a £4,000/sq m sales density for additional dev elop ments ° S cenario 3: with fix ed p roductiv ity growth , assuming a £5,000/sq m sales density for additional dev elop ments ° S cenario 4: with sp lit p roductiv ity growth , assuming a £5,000/sq m sales density for additional dev elop ments 2.34 F our different estimates of p roductiv ity growth were ap p lied to each of th ese scenarios and resulted in identified need in London Borough of Camden of: ° S cenario 1: Between 5,223 sq m and 20,963 sq m ° S cenario 2: Between 5,680 sq m and 10,369 sq m ° S cenario 3: Between 4,178 sq m and 16,771 sq m ° S cenario 4: Between 4,544 sq m and 16,771 sq m 2.35 We comp are th e conclusions of th e Ex p erian work with our own assessment of need later in th is rep ort. Th e G LA commissioned an up date of th is study in 2007/08, but th e results h ad not been p ublish ed at th e time of writing. London Town Centre Assessment: S tage 2 - Conv enience G oods F loorsp ace N eed 2.36 S tage 2 of th e London Town Centre Assessment focussed on conv enience goods, and th is p art of th e study was p ublish ed in J une 2005. Th e study concluded th at London Borough of Camden‘s base conv enience floorsp ace req uirements to 2016, under a scenario assuming a £5,500/sq m sales density for additional sup ermarket dev elop ments, would be between 5,783 sq m and 14,425 sq m, dep ending on th e lev el of p roductiv ity growth . 2.37 U nder an alternativ e scenario assuming a £9,400/sq m sales density for additional sup ermarket dev elop ments, th e floorsp ace req uirement would be between 3,383 sq m and 8,440 sq m, again dep ending on th e lev el of p roductiv ity growth . We comp are th e conclusions of th e Ex p erian work with our own assessment of need later in th is rep ort.

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London-wide Town Centre H ealth Ch ecks 2006 Analysis 2.38 Th e London-wide Town Centre H ealth Ch ecks were p ublish ed in J anuary 2006 and are based on analysis undertaken in 2006. Th ey were undertaken in th e ligh t of a commitment in th e London Plan to test th e London Town Centre network th rough regular town centre ”h ealth ch ecks‘, with reclassification of centres th rough S ub- Regional Dev elop ment F rameworks and subseq uent rev iews of th e London Plan. Th e h ealth ch ecks were undertaken by th e G LA, and draw on data from a range of sources, including surv eys of th e borough s. Th e G LA sees th e h ealth ch ecks as an imp ortant element of assessing th e h ealth of th e network and centres‘ relationsh ip s to each oth er. 2.39 Th e h ealth ch eck commentary makes th e following p oints in relation to Camden Town: ° Th e centre p rov ides substantial town centre floorsp ace (v ariously giv en as 104,358 sq m and 112,748 sq m), similar in scale to smaller M etrop olitan centres; ° H owev er, in contrast to M etrop olitan Centres much of th is (36% or 37,760 sq m of 104,358 sq m) is leisure-related; Camden Town h as th e fourth h igh est amount of leisure floorsp ace of all centres in London, and G OAD data indicates th at it h as th e th ird h igh est number of leisure outlets in London (82 restaurants/cafes, 29 take aways, 58 bars/p ubs, 0 nigh tclubs); ° S ome 60% of floorsp ace in Camden Town is retail-based (62,898 sq m of 104,358 sq m); ° It h as th e th ird h igh est amount of office floorsp ace of all centres outside th e Central Activ ities Z one, th ough at 147,663 sq m it is well sh ort of th e office floorsp ace at Croydon (475,639 sq m) and H ammersmith (327,502 sq m); ° Camden Town h as 3,700 sq m of v acant floorsp ace; ° Th ere are unimp lemented p ermissions at Camden Town for 2,205 sq m of retail and 93 h ousing units 2.40 Th e h ealth ch eck commentary makes th e following p oints in relation to K ilburn H igh Road: ° K ilburn H igh Road (Camden) h as 4,120 sq m of v acant floorsp ace; ° Th ere are unimp lemented p ermissions at K ilburn H igh Road (Camden) for 120 h ousing units and 79 h otel bedsp aces. 2.41 Th e h ealth ch eck commentary makes th e following p oints in relation to S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road: ° Th e centre is large in comp arison to smaller M ajor centres (75,000 sq m floorsp ace), with retail floorsp ace of 38,000 sq m as well as almost 18,000 sq m of leisure floorsp ace ° It h as a p articularly h igh turnov er of conv enience goods (at £130m), but h as a low p rop ortion of comp arison goods retail floorsp ace (46% of retail floorsp ace) œ lower th an all oth er M ajor centres ex cep t Camden Town (44%) and Peckh am (43%); ° It h as a low number of multip les (42) œ lower th an all oth er M ajor centres ex cep t Brix ton (39) and Wandsworth (35); ° Based on some indicators, th e centre is op erating abov e th e District lev el, but oth ers suggest th at it is still functioning as a District centre. 2.42 F inally, th e h ealth ch eck commentary notes th at 70% of floorsp ace in H amp stead is related to food and drink.

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Retail in London: Working Pap er A - Retail in th e West End 2.43 Th is document formed p art of G LA Economics‘ wider study of retail in London. It was p ublish ed in M arch 2005 and is based on av ailable data, th ough it was also informed by discussions with a number of p arties interested in retail in th e West End. It concluded th at: ° Th e West End is by far th e largest retail area (in terms of floorsp ace, emp loyment and range of sh op s) in th e U nited K ingdom (U K ); ° In contrast to most retail centres in th e country, it is easy to get to by p ublic transp ort, and attracts both London residents and ov erseas tourists; ° Th ere is little h ard ev idence of a significant trend away from retail in th e West End (retail rents h av e grown at least as fast as most oth er London retail centres); ° Th ere h as nev erth eless been a sligh t downturn in sales since 2003, and th is is best ex p lained by th e slowdown in economic activ ity, wh ich was p articularly sev ere in London, and not by th e introduction of th e congestion ch arge as some retailers h av e suggested; ° Retail ex p enditure in th e West End is ex p ected will grow strongly ov er th e nex t decade or so. It sh ows th at th e West End will remain th e largest retail area (in terms of floorsp ace) in London. 2.44 H owev er, it furth er notes th at: ° Oth er retail centres are more ”car-friendly‘, wh ich means th at p oor q uality p ublic transp ort could deter consumers; ° Th e lev el of p edestrian and traffic congestion (p lus th e lev el noise, fumes, litter and ex p osure to th e elements) can deter some consumers, but th ese ”env ironmental factors‘ are likely to be more effectiv ely addressed by oth er retail centres. 2.45 Th e rep ort notes th at th e following p olicy issues arise: ° It is difficult to coordinate actions to address th e p roblems from wh ich th e West End suffers, but BIDs can p lay a key role; ° Transp ort is key, and any imp rov ements to p ublic transp ort and th e p edestrian env ironment would imp rov e consumers‘ ex p erience of th e West End. Rep ort of th e West End Central Retail Area Planning and Dev elop ment Commission 2.46 Th e West End Central Retail Area Planning and Dev elop ment Commission was set up by th e M ayor of London in resp onse to: ° Concerns th at th e West End h ad lost its comp etitiv e edge comp ared with oth er centres; ° Concerns th at it is underp erforming its p otential as a retail centre of international standard ap p rop riate for an ex emp lary 21st century world city. At th e same time, th ere are a number of initiativ es; ° Th e op p ortunity th at new dev elop ments and initiativ es, such as th e first rev iew of th e London Plan, th e creation of th e N ew West End Comp any and th e 2012 Olymp ics and Paralymp ics. 2.47 Th e Commission was ch arged with dev elop ing p olicy op tions for th e West End, wh ich it defined as including Tottenh am Court Road and th e north ern p art of Ch aring Cross Road, to inform rev iew of th e London Plan and oth er M ayoral strategies. Th e Commission p ublish ed its final rep ort in N ov ember 2006 and concluded th at: ° Th e West End needs urgent action to sustain and dev elop its distinct retail offer;

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° Th ere is a need for a h olistic ap p roach th at addresses th e needs and op p ortunities p resented by th e wh ole area; ° Th ere is a tension between wh at makes it successful, notably th e range and ch oice of sh op s, and th e th ings th at dissuade p eop le from v isiting th e area, such as congestion (both traffic and p edestrian) and env ironmental q uality; ° Th ere is scop e to make more of th e retail, leisure, creativ e and v isitor-based agglomerations in th e area. 2.48 Th e Commission went on to make a number of recommendations. In relation to p lanning p olicy and its imp lementation it noted th at a ”sup p ortiv e p lanning framework‘ is req uired to: ° Promote th e area as a retail area (th at based on Ox ford, Bond and Regent streets and Tottenh am Court Road) of international, national and London-wide imp ortance; ° Encourage a greater number of large, flagsh ip and/or distinctiv e sh op s (reinforcing th e area‘s distinctiv e offer); ° Imp rov e th e q uality of th e urban env ironment, transp ort/accessibility, legibility, amenity and consistency of th e area, and to p romote th e most efficient use of sp ace and ensure h igh q uality design. ° Encourage th e p rov ision of comp lementary uses: h otels, cinemas, th eatres, restaurants, and p erh ap s an international conv ention centre, with p articular emp h asis on p romoting a wider range of eating and drinking facilities in th e area; ° Prov ide th e basis for p rep aration of a p lanning framework as p art of th e London Plan p rocess setting out a sustainable dev elop ment p rogramme for th e area. Th e Role th e M arkets Play in th e V itality & V iability of Camden Town 2.49 In th e ligh t of p ressure for redev elop ment of Camden Town U nderground station and adjacent land, including Camden M arket (Buck S treet) and th e Electric M arket (also known as th e Electric Ballroom M arket), London Borough of Camden commissioned a study to ex amine: ° Th e wider role of th e markets in Camden town centre; ° Th e sp ecific roles of th e Camden M arket (at Buck S treet) and th e Electric M arket; and ° Th e contribution th at th e Camden M arket (at Buck S treet) and th e Electric M arket make to th e v itality and v iability of th e town centre. 2.50 Th e rep ort was comp leted in October 2006 and drew th e following conclusions: ° In terms of town centre v itality and v iability, th e ev idence base is not strong enough to sup p ort th e case for req uiring th e retention of Camden M arket (at Buck S treet) and th e Electric M arket in th eir current form; ° Th ere are limited op p ortunities for an alternativ e market site(s) to accommodate disp laced market stalls with in th e town centre during an interim but length y construction p eriod, th ough oth er op p ortunities may arise in th e future; ° If retail use, wh ich could include a new cov ered market, was included as p art of any large-scale redev elop ment of th e Camden Town U nderground S tation site, th is would sup p ort th e future v itality and v iability of th e town centre. 2.51 It sh ould be noted th at Birch am Dyson Bell, acting on beh alf of Camden Lock (London) Limited, commissioned Ch ase & Partners to critiq ue th e study. Ch ase & Partners argued th at th e study lacked objectiv ity and sough t to downp lay th e role of th e markets at Camden generally, and in p articular th e role th at th e Camden M arket at Buck S treet

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and th e Electric M arket h av e in enh ancing th e attractiv eness of th e town centre as a sh op p ing and tourist destination.

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3 CU RREN T S H OPPIN G AN D LEIS U RE PATTERN S IN TH E S TU DY AREA

3.1 A necessary first step towards establish ing th e cap acity for new retail floorsp ace in a locality is to understand current sh op p ing and leisure p atterns in an area. Th e accep ted best means of establish ing th ese p atterns is th rough a surv ey of h ouseh olds with in a giv en geograp h ical area. A surv ey of sh op p ing and leisure p atterns across th e London Borough of Camden and in p arts of th e adjacent borough s was carried out in S ep tember/October 2003. In our v iew th e sh op p ing and leisure p atterns identified in th e surv ey are unlikely to h av e ch anged substantially, as no major dev elop ments h av e begun trading since th en. 3.2 Th e S tudy Area for th e surv ey ex tends to cov er th e wh ole of both th e London Borough of Camden and Islington and four wards on th e west-side of th e London Borough of Brent and th ree wards in th e north ern sector of th e City of Westminster. Th e area was ch osen to reflect both th e fact th at a number of Camden‘s centres are located on th e outer edges of th e Borough (indeed K ilburn H igh Road straddles th e Camden/Brent boundary), and th e need to encomp ass th e likely ex tent of th e main catch ment area of any significant retail element th at may emerge in th e K ing‘s Cross regeneration p rop osals.5 3.3 F or th e p urp ose of analysis th e S tudy Area h as been subdiv ided into eigh t z ones based as far as p ossible on th e ex isting centre distribution as indicated below. F our of th e z ones (Z ones 1 to 4) are wh olly with in th e London Borough of Camden, one in London Borough of Brent (Z one 5), one in th e City of Westminster (Z one 6) and th e final two (Z ones 7 and 8) are wh olly with in London Borough of Islington and collectiv ely cov er th e wh ole of th at borough . 3.4 Th e eigh t z ones are as follows: ° LB Camden z ones Z one 1: cov ers th e south ern p art of Camden, but no ex isting town centres Z one 2: centred as far as p ossible on Camden Town Z one 3: centred on K ilburn and S wiss Cottage/ F inch ley Road Z one 4: centred on H amp stead ° LB Brent z one Z one 5: centred on K ilburn ° City of Westminster z one Z one 6: cov ers th e Regent‘s Park area, but no ex isting centres ° LB Islington z ones Z one 7: centred on N ags H ead Z one 8: centred on Angel 3.5 A map of th e S tudy Area is rep roduced in section 1. It is imp ortant to note th at th e analysis contained in th is section deals only with th e sh op p ing and leisure p atterns of h ouseh olds resident with in th e S tudy Area. Th e h abits and attitudes of v isitors to th e centres from beyond th e S tudy Area, i.e. th ose trav elling in for work, sh op p ing or leisure p ursuits (including tourists) from beyond th e S tudy Area, is assessed th rough V isitor S urv eys, wh ich were conducted in a total of nine centres, and are rep orted in th e nex t section of th is rep ort. 3.6 Th e h ouseh old surv ey inv olv ed a systematic random samp le of a total of 1,000 h ouseh olds, 125 in each of th e eigh t z ones, drawn directly from th e residential

5 Prop osals h av e now come forward but were not clear at th e time

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telep h one subscriber listings. A full descrip tion of th e S urv ey M eth odology is set out at Ap p endix 1.1. 3.7 Th e surv ey q uestionnaire p rincip ally sough t to establish sh op p ing trip destinations for conv enience and comp arison goods, and leisure trip destinations for food and drink and commercial leisure activ ity. Trip ch aracteristics were also assessed th rough q uestions on th e mode of transp ort used to access th e centre/facilities, journey length and trip freq uency. Resp ondents were also asked for th eir q ualitativ e v iews in resp ect of matters such as th eir reasons for v isiting th e centres, and wh eth er or not th e centre meets th eir sh op p ing and leisure needs. Th e surv ey q uestionnaire is rep roduced in full at Ap p endix 1.2. 3.8 In all cases th e resp ondents were th e p erson resp onsible for undertaking th e majority of th e h ouseh old‘s sh op p ing. 3.9 Th e results of th e h ouseh old surv ey are set out in 34 tables at Ap p endix 1.3. Th e data is p resented mostly in th e form of th e results for each z one, but wh ere data for each indiv idual centre is more relev ant, we use th is in addition or instead. Due to th e dominance of th e West End6 and, to a lesser ex tent, Brent Cross, for some q uestions a number of th e centres failed to obtain sufficient resp onses to allow for meaningful ex amination. Th erefore we h av e only included centres in our analysis th at receiv ed more th an twenty resp onses for each p articular q uestion.

Comp arison G oods S h op p ing 3.10 We asked a series of q uestions to establish comp arison goods sh op p ing p atterns in th e S tudy Area z ones. Because of th e density of sh op p ing p rov ision in th e locality, and th e likelih ood th at sh op p ers v isit a number of centres on a reasonably regular basis, we asked resp ondents wh ich is th eir main centre p lus up to th ree oth er centres th at th ey also v isit. Th is is imp ortant in th e calculation of th e market sh ares for each centre, as th e smaller centres may not be th e main location for comp arison goods sh op p ing, but are often a second, th ird or ev en forth trip destination. We also asked resp ondents to estimate th e p rop ortion of total comp arison goods sp end made at th e main location (main only as to ask for all locations was considered likely to length en th e interv iews unnecessarily), and q uestions relating to trip ch aracteristics and satisfaction with th e centre. 3.11 Th e resp onses to th e q uestions dealing with th e centres v isited combined with th e p rop ortion of sp end in th e main location are used to calculate th e market sh are of each of th e centres included in th e analysis by ap p lying th e p rop ortion of total sp end av ailable to each centre in accordance with th e number of h ouseh olds v isiting each centre. Th e p rop ortion of sp end in th e second, th ird and forth locations is based on our judgement of an ap p rop riate ratio to ap p ly. M ain Destination 3.12 Resp ondents were first asked in wh ich centre th ey undertook most of th eir sh op p ing for cloth es, sh oes and h omeware items. Th e class of goods used rep resents an establish ed p rox y for non-bulky comp arison goods sh op p ing, and th e q uestion was designed to establish wh ere comp arison sh op p ing is undertaken. Th e results are set out at Table 2.1 (surv ey q uestion 1a) of Ap p endix 1.3.

6 We have adopted the ODPM (now CLG) definition for the West End (as presented in the 2004 Defining Town Centre Boundaries Report), which includes Covent Garden, Soho, Oxford Street, Regent Street, Bond Street, Piccadilly and all the streets that intersect with these, plus two of the other London Borough of Camden Central London Area centres (in addition to Covent Garden (northern part) - Tottenham Court Road and Charing Cross Road. These centres are contiguous, and evidence from the surveys conducted in the course of this study demonstrate that the general public are unable to distinguish in shopping terms between these diverse and specialist areas that in aggregate constitute the ‘West End’. Thus where reference is made to ‘West End’ throughout this report it is based on the above mentioned ODPM definition.

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3.13 Th e table demonstrates th e dominance of th e West End in th e S tudy Area, with h alf of all trip s from th e wh ole area being made to th at centre. Th e dominance v aries from ov er th ree q uarters in Z one 1 to only just ov er 30% in Z one 5, and indeed it is only Z one 5 wh ere anoth er centre (Brent Cross) is more dominant th an th e West End. Brent Cross is th e second most p op ular comp arison goods sh op p ing destination in th e S tudy Area recording 12% ov erall, h igh est in Z one 5, but also significant in Z ones 3 and 4 in p articular. Combined, th ese two centres account for almost two-th irds of all main sh op p ing trip s in th e S tudy Area. 3.14 Camden Town is th e dominant centre in th e London Borough of Camden, ach iev ing a 5% main trip h aul ov erall, with ov er a q uarter of trip s from Z one 2 (Camden Town), albeit th at figure being only h alf th e draw to th e West End. Camden Town‘s draw from th e rest of th e S tudy Area is surp risingly weak, and only ex ceeds 5% of main trip s in Z one 1 and 4, wh ich is likely to reflect th e sp ecialist nature of its fash ion offer and a lack of dep th in th e mainstream fash ion-wear offer; a p oint also drawn out of th e h ealth ch eck assessment. H amp stead deriv es ov er 17% of main trip s from Z one 4 (H amp stead), but few main trip s from elsewh ere in th e S tudy Area, and K ilburn draws 15% and almost 10% resp ectiv ely from th e two z ones th at bisect th e centre (Z ones 5 and 3). It is not surp rising th at K ilburn commands a larger p rop ortion of trip s from Z one 5 th an Z one 3 giv en th at currently th e sh op p ing p rov ision to th e west of K ilburn is weaker th an th at to th e east. 3.15 Th e Islington centres h av e a sh are of th e ov erall number of main trip s midway between Camden Town (5.1%) and K ilburn (3.6%) at 4.4% and 5.0% resp ectiv ely. N ags H ead accounts for a resp ectable one in fiv e trip s from Z one 7 (N ags H ead), and 8% from Z one 8. Angel draws almost a q uarter of all trip s from Z one 8 (Angel), and also accounts for 9% from Z one 7. N eith er centre h as much influence beyond Z ones 7 and 8, alth ough Angel draws ov er 6% from Z one 1. Oth er Destinations 3.16 We asked resp ondents wh ere else th ey sh op for comp arison goods and th e results to th is q uestion are set out in Tables 1.2 (a second location), 1.3 (a th ird location) and 1.4 (a fourth location) (surv ey q uestions 7a, 7b and 7c resp ectiv ely). 3.17 Table 1.2 indicates th at ov erall more th an two-th irds of h ouseh olds sh op at more th an one location, wh ich is consistent with th e ch oice av ailable to S tudy Area h ouseh olds. H ouseh olds in Z ones 1 and 6, th e two z ones closest to th e West End, h av e much th e h igh est p rop ortions (41% and 43% resp ectiv ely œ refer to th e ”no oth er‘ centre on th e last row of th e table) of h ouseh olds th at only sh op in th e one location, wh ich almost certainly reflects th e q uality of th e p rov ision in th e West End. Th e most significant ”second‘ locations are once again th e West End and Brent Cross, wh ich reflects th at th ose wh o ch oose to sh op mainly in th e London Borough of Camden centres will also v isit West End and Brent Cross as a second ch oice. Of th e centres with in th e S tudy Area, Camden Town and Angel attract th e h igh est number of sh op p ers as second ch oice locations. 3.18 Th e p rop ortions of h ouseh olds th at sh op in more th an two locations is set out in Table 1.3. Th e table indicates th at only a q uarter of all h ouseh olds regularly sh op in th ree or more locations. In addition to v isits to th e West End and Brent Cross, th e London Borough of Camden and London Borough of Islington centres, h ouseh olds do v isit locations elsewh ere in London and beyond. Table 1.4 demonstrates th at v ery few (only 8%) h ouseh olds regularly sh op at four or more locations. S p end 3.19 S h op p ers were asked wh at p rop ortion of th eir total ex p enditure th ey make in th eir main centre for comp arison goods. Th e resp onses to th is q uestion are set out in Table 1.5 (surv ey q uestions 1b). Th e ov erall mean av erage p rop ortions v ary across th e S tudy Area, but not v astly (ranging between 57% and 68%), and indicate th at ov erall marginally less th an two-th irds of all ex p enditure is sp ent in th e main centre.

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3.20 Th e table also sets out th e mean sp end p rop ortion for th ose h ouseh olds v isiting two, th ree and four locations. N aturally h ouseh olds th at only v isit th e one location sp end 100% of th eir av ailable ex p enditure in th at centre, and as one would ex p ect th e table indicates th at th e p rop ortion of sp end in th e main centre (th is is wh at Q 1b asked) decreases as th e number of centres routinely v isited increases. Th us th e p rop ortion of sp end in th e main centre by h ouseh olds v isiting two locations av erages across th e S tudy Area at 62%, th ose v isiting th ree locations av erages 55%, and 50% of total ex p enditure is made in th e main location by th ose h ouseh olds th at v isit four locations. 3.21 Th e nex t step is determine th e ap p rop riate ratios of sp end to ap p ly to th e h ouseh olds v isiting two, th ree and four different locations for th eir comp arison goods sh op p ing needs. Th e p rop ortions are based on th e findings in resp ect of th e main location as referred to abov e. Th e p rop ortions we consider to be ap p rop riate are set out in Table 3.1 below. Table 3.1 Prop ortion of Total Comp arison G oods S p end by Resp ondent G roup

Resp ondent G roup Prop ortions

Th ose using 1 centre only 100%

Th ose using 2 centres 60% / 40%

Th ose using 3 centres 55% / 30% / 15%

Th ose using 4 centres 50% / 25% / 15% / 10%

3.22 Th ese findings confirm th at a h ouseh old‘s p rimary destination accounts for th e lion‘s sh are of all ex p enditure, and inform our market sh are calculations. M arket S h ares 3.23 We use th e results of th e main and oth er comp arison goods sh op p ing destinations and th e sp end data to calculate th e market sh are for each of th e centres th at draw ex p enditure from th e S tudy Area, and th e results are set out in Tables 2.6a and 2.6b (based on th e results to surv ey q uestions 1a and 1b). Th e calculations inv olv e a few step s. F irst of all we strip out from th e results th ose sh op p ers wh o only sh op by catalogue/mail order/Internet as in th is study we are calculating market sh ares for traditional forms of sh op p ing, i.e. bricks and mortar retailing, and not th e sp ecial forms of trading (S F T) such as mail order, catalogue and th e increasingly p op ular e-tailing. We deal with th e ex p enditure th at goes to th ese forms of trading sep arately in th e needs assessment section of th is rep ort. A total of 19 solely non-store based h ouseh olds are th erefore remov ed from th e dataset resulting in a total of 983 resp ondent h ouseh olds with in th e S tudy Area. 3.24 Th e nex t step req uires th e data in Tables 1.1 to 1.4 to be sp lit out to accord with th e resp ondent group classifications and th en th e p rop ortions of total sp end are th en ap p lied and th e aggregate total market sh ares are set out in Table 1.6a, total av ailable comp arison goods sp end in each of th e S tudy Area z ones. 3.25 We th en tested th e market sh are data by ap p lying th e market sh are data to th e total av ailable comp arison goods ex p enditure, adding in wh at we consider to be realistic figures for turnov er inflow, i.e. turnov er generated from beyond th e S tudy Area, and calculating av erage sales densities for each centre (Table 1.6b). Th e v ast majority of th e centres h ad wh at we consider to be realistic sales densities with th e ex cep tion of th ree (K entish Town, S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road and Cricklewood), wh ich ap p eared to h av e unrealistically low market sh ares, wh ich is likely to result from th e local dominance of Camden Town, th e West End and Brent Cross. In accordance with common p ractice we h av e th erefore made adjustments to th e data for th ese centres to

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bring th em up to wh at we consider to be realistic lev els. Th is req uired multip lying th e market sh ares by four in th e case of K entish Town and th ree in th e case of th e oth er two. To accommodate th ese up ward adjustments, downward adjustments h av e been made to th e market sh ares of all th e oth er centres. 3.26 Th e reworked market sh ares are p resented in Table 1.6b, wh ich demonstrates th at ov erall London Borough of Camden centres retain a market sh are of just under 20% from across th e S tudy Area. Th e sh are is h igh est in Z one 2 (Camden Town) at 37% and is lowest (ap p rox imately 2%) in Z one 8 (Angel). Th is finding œ togeth er with th e fact th at with th e ex cep tion of Z one 1, Camden centres draw much h igh er market sh are from th e London Borough of Camden z ones (Z ones 1, 2, 3 and 4) - demonstrates th e localised nature of th e catch ment areas for all th ese centres. London Borough of Camden centres draw relativ ely low market sh are from Z one 1 (south ern Camden). Th e latter is dominated by th e attraction of th e West End and oth er Central London Area centres, wh ich are th e destination for two-th irds of all sh op p ing trip s. 3.27 Ov erall th e West End draws a market sh are of 43%, h igh est in Z ones 1 and 6 (two- th irds) and lowest in Z one 5 wh ere Brent Cross is th e dominant centre. Camden Town attracts almost a q uarter of all trip s from Z one 2 and 8.5% from Z one 4, but th e centre‘s influence in th e S tudy Area is v ery limited oth erwise. K ilburn draws resp ectable sh are from Z ones 3 and 5 (8% and 14% resp ectiv ely), but again little from oth er z ones. Th is p attern is rep eated for all oth er centres, N ags H ead enjoys a 20% market sh are from Z one 7 and almost 8% from Z one 8, but no more th an 3.6% from any oth er z one. Angel draws a 27% market sh are from Z one 8, almost a double-digit sh are from Z one 7 and 7% from Z one 1, but from only one oth er Z one does th e centre draw more th an 1%. In comp arison th e market sh are for Brent Cross only drop s below 5% in two z ones (Z ones 1 and 8). Th ese findings once again reinforce th e v ery localised nature of sh op p ing for comp arison goods in th e London Borough of Camden and London Borough of Islington centres. Comp arison G oods S h op p ing Trip Ch aracteristics 3.28 We asked resp ondents about th e means of transp ort normally used wh en sh op p ing for cloth es, sh oes and h omeware, and we p resent th e results for th ose centres wh ere enough resp onses were recorded to make analysis meaningful in Table 1.7 (surv ey q uestion 2). Th e table sh ows th at ov erall th e bus is ov erwh elmingly th e most p op ular mode of transp ort used to access th e centres, accounting for just less th an two-th irds of all trip s from th e S tudy Area to Camden Town, 57% to Wood G reen and h alf of all trip s to th e West End. Th e bus is also th e most p op ular mode for trip s to both th e Islington centres. Ov erall th e p riv ate car is only h alf as p op ular as th e bus as a means of transp ort to th ese centres, and is only more significant th an th e bus for sh op p ers accessing H amp stead and Brent Cross. Trip s to H amp stead from th e S tudy Area are ov erwh elmingly made on foot (almost th ree q uarters of th e total). U nsurp risingly giv en its location, 70% of sh op p ing trip s to th e Brent Cross sh op p ing centre are car borne, with th e bus accounting for just about all of th e oth er trip s. Th e table also indicates h ow imp ortant trip s on foot are to th e oth er centres, not only for H amp stead, but also for K ilburn, N ags H ead and Angel in p articular. 3.29 Resp ondents were asked h ow long on av erage it takes to get from th eir h ome to th e centre, and th e results are set out in Table 1.8 (surv ey q uestion 3). Th e table demonstrates th at ov erall journey length tends to be sh ort with v ery low p rop ortions inv olv ing journeys of more th an h alf an h our. Th is finding is consistent with th e density of centres in th e area and th e h igh p rop ortion of bus and walk-in sh op p ers referred to abov e. Th e H amp stead z one (Z one 4) h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of sh op p ing trip s th at take longer th an 30 minutes, but ev en h ere such trip s only account for one in fiv e. 3.30 Th e freq uency of v isit to th e centres is set out in Table 1.9 (surv ey q uestion 6). Th e table p oints to a dich otomy between th e regularity of v isit to th e larger centres (th e two p urp ose-built centres of Brent Cross and Wood G reen and th e West End) and th e traditional centres. Th e traditional centres are v isited much more freq uently th an th e

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larger centres, av eraging at around two-th irds of sh op p ing trip s made at least on a weekly basis comp ared with an av erage of 25% for th e large centres. Consumer V iews and Attitudes 3.31 Th e reasons for ch oosing to sh op in each centre were sough t and th e results are p resented in Table 1.10 (surv ey q uestion 5). Th e reasons ch osen again reflect th e v ery different p rofile of th e town centres from th e larger centres (West End, Wood G reen and Brent Cross), with far h igh er p rop ortions of sh op p ers in th e former citing p rox imity to h ome as being a significant reason comp ared to th e latter. Indeed, th is reason was cited by ap p rox imately 50% of all sh op p ers to th e town centres, much th e h igh est reason giv en, and ap p rox imately double th e p rop ortion th at considered th e selection and q uality of sh op s to be a main reason for v isiting. Th e selection and q uality of sh op s is more imp ortant th an p rox imity in resp ect of th e West End and Wood G reen, but not Brent Cross. Th e main factor in th e ”oth er‘ category in resp ect of Brent Cross largely comp rises of th e ease of p arking and th e fact th at p arking is free. V alue for money is an imp ortant factor for K ilburn sh op p ers, and th e conv enience of access is imp ortant for sh op p ers at Wood G reen in p articular, but also th ose in Camden Town and th e West End. Th e lack of imp ortance p laced on rail/Tube serv ices is surp rising and is in sh arp contrast to th e findings in resp ect of bus access. 3.32 Resp ondents were asked h ow good th eir main centre is at meeting th eir comp arison goods sh op p ing needs by grading th e centres from ”v ery good‘, ”good‘, ”neith er good nor p oor‘, to ”p oor‘ and ”v ery p oor‘, and th e resp onses are set out in Table 1.11 (surv ey q uestion 4). Th e table indicates th at most centres scored h igh ly, with th e centres th at score best once again being th e larger centres œ th e West End, Brent Cross and Wood G reen, p lus Angel th is time. Th e h igh lev el of satisfaction with Angel may h av e been enh anced due to th e recent addition of th e p urp ose built N 1 centre. Th e centres with th e h igh est neutral or ”p oor‘ score are Camden Town, K ilburn, H amp stead and N ags H ead.

Conv enience G oods S h op p ing 3.33 We asked a series of q uestions to determine sh op p ing p atterns with in th e S tudy Area for conv enience goods. Th e q uestions asked wh ich sp ecific store th e h ouseh old uses to undertake most of th e main food sh op p ing and also oth er stores used regularly for food sh op p ing. Q uestions were also asked on th e p rop ortion of conv enience goods ex p enditure made in th e main location, th e sh op p ing trip ch aracteristics and th e satisfaction with th e main location. 3.34 Th e conv enience goods analysis differs from th e comp arison goods assessment because it identifies some of th e key stores with in each of th e centres, but in common with th e comp arison goods ap p roach we aggregate up market sh are to centre lev el. M ain Destination 3.35 Th e p atterns for main conv enience goods sh op p ing, as set out in Table 1.12 (surv ey q uestion 8a), are v ery different from th e p attern for comp arison goods sh op p ing. Th e ch ief difference being th e much more localised draw with no one store h av ing an ov erall dominant p osition with in th e S tudy Area. In Z one 1 th e local Z one 1 stores in th e Brunswick Centre and H olborn dominate, alth ough th e S ainsbury store on Liv erp ool Road, Islington draws a h igh p rop ortion of h ouseh olds. In Z one 2 th e Camden Town stores dominate, accounting for ov er two-th irds of all h ouseh olds. Th is p attern is rep eated across all th e z ones with th e ex cep tion of Z ones 4, 5 and 6 wh ere th ere is v ery limited foodstore p rov ision, but good p rov ision in th e neigh bouring z ones (Z ones 2 and 3), to wh ich th e h ouseh olds in Z ones 4, 5 and 6 are drawn. 3.36 Ov erall S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road (S ainsbury and Waitrose) is th e centre with th e largest main conv enience goods sh op p ing draw (13.4%), followed by Camden Town

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(S ainsbury and S afeway7) with 12.7%, Angel (S ainsbury) with 8.4% and K ilburn H igh Road (S ainsbury) with 4.8%. Oth er Destination 3.37 A similar p attern p rev ails for oth er locations used by h ouseh olds for conv enience goods sh op p ing as is sh own in Tables 1.12, 1.13 and 1.14 (surv ey q uestions 12a, 12b and 12c). M arginally less th an 30% of h ouseh olds use only th eir main store to sh op for conv enience goods, comp ared to 70% th at use two or more. Th e p rop ortion using th ree or more falls to around 25% and only 6% of h ouseh olds sh op for conv enience goods at four or more stores. S p end 3.38 S h op p ers wh ere asked wh at p rop ortion of th eir total ex p enditure th ey make in th eir main conv enience goods store. Th e resp onses to th is q uestion are set out in Table 1.16 (surv ey q uestions 8b). Th e mean av erage p rop ortions sh ow v ery little v ariation across th e S tudy Area, much less th an th at for comp arison goods, th e range being between 70% and 75%, with th e mean ov erall being 72%. 3.39 Th e table also sets out th e mean sp end p rop ortion for th ose h ouseh olds v isiting two, th ree and four locations. As ex p lained abov e in th e comp arison goods assessment h ouseh olds th at only v isit th e one location sp end 100% of th eir av ailable ex p enditure in th at centre, and h ouseh olds th at v isit more th an one location will sp end an inv erse p rop ortion of th eir ex p enditure in each . Th us th e p rop ortion of sp end made in th e main store by h ouseh olds v isiting two stores av erages 70% across th e S tudy Area, th ose v isiting th ree locations av erages 65%, and 60% of total ex p enditure is made in th e main location by th ose h ouseh olds th at v isit four locations. 3.40 Th e nex t step is to estimate based on th e abov e information h ow th e total sp end is likely to sub-div ide, and our estimates are p resented below in Table 3.2. Table 3.2 Prop ortion of Total Comp arison G oods S p end by Resp ondent G roup

Resp ondent G roup Prop ortions

Th ose using 1 store only 100%

Th ose using 2 stores 70% / 30%

Th ose using 3 stores 65% / 25% / 10%

Th ose using 4 stores 60% / 25% / 10% / 5%

3.41 Th ese findings inform our market sh are calculations. M arket S h ares 3.42 We adop t th e same basic p rocedure for th e calculation of conv enience goods market sh ares as we h av e for comp arison goods, th at is, we remov e from th e dataset any h ouseh olds th at undertake th is form of sh op p ing v ia non-store based means, we allot a weigh ting p rop ortion to th e resp ondent group based on th e sp ending p attern (as set out in Table 3.2 abov e), and we finally ch eck and adjust market sh ares as necessary to reflect wh at we consider to be a realistic sh op p ing p attern. F or th e p urp oses of calculating market sh ares, and ev entually for th e calculation of need, we mov e from being store sp ecific (as p er th e surv ey data), to being centre sp ecific. Th us, for ex amp le, a market sh are for Camden Town is calculated in aggregate rath er th an sep arately for each of th e indiv idual stores with in th at centre.

7 Th e S afeway store in Camden Town now trades as a M orrisons store

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3.43 A total of nine h ouseh olds sh op for conv enience goods v ia th e internet and so th e total number of h ouseh olds surv eyed in th e S tudy Area and wh ich are used to deriv e market sh ares drop s from 999 to 990. Th e resultant market sh ares are set out in ap p endix Table 1.17a. 3.44 We th en test th e market sh are data by calculating av erage sales densities for each centre (after adding in turnov er deriv ed from beyond th e S tudy Area). Th ere were a number of centres wh ere sales densities were eith er a little h igh er or a little lower th an wh at we consider to be realistic. Th e reasons for th is are not clear, but under- rep resentation of h ouseh olds in th e samp le of centres with smaller foodstores, and ov er-rep resentation of h ouseh olds v isiting th e bigger foodstores in th e centres needing weigh ting downwards is th e p rincip al susp ect. Th e range of adjustments req uired to obtain wh at we consider to be realistic sales densities and market sh ares was less th an th at for comp arison goods, but inv olv es more centres. In all eigh t centres req uire adjustment, four up wards (Tottenh am Court Road (a factor of 1.5), K entish Town (2.0), West H amp stead (3.0) and Cricklewood (1.5)) and four downwards (S wiss Cottage/ F inch ley Road (0.75), N ags H ead (0.9), Angel (0.75) and Brent Cross (0.5)). 3.45 H av ing undertaken th e abov e mentioned data adjustments th e market sh ares h av e been calculated and are p resented in ap p endix Table 1.17b. Th e table demonstrates th e v ery localised nature of th is form of sh op p ing. Th e London Borough of Camden centres (th ose contained in Z one 1 to 4) deriv e a total market sh are of just ov er h alf of th e entire S tudy Area, wh ich is v ery resp ectable considering th e oth er p rov ision with in th e S tudy Area, and th e sh are from with in London Borough of Camden alone (Z ones 1 to 4) is considerably h igh er still - at two-th irds or better. Z one 1 generates th e lowest sh are (68%) and indicates th at significant p rop ortions of h ouseh olds in th is z one undertake th eir conv enience goods sh op p ing beyond th e London Borough of Camden boundary, most notably at Angel (10%). Th ere is a significant reduction in market sh are for London Borough of Camden centres beyond th e administrativ e boundary with Z ones 5 and 6 drawing ap p rox imately 40% and 50% resp ectiv ely and much lower p rop ortions from th e London Borough of Islington z ones (ap p rox imately 8% and 10% from Z ones 7 and 8). 3.46 Looking at sp ecific centres, th e table demonstrates th at stores in H olborn/Tottenh am Court Road dominate th e Z one 1 market sh are, and stores in Camden Town dominate Z one 2 and neigh bouring Z one 4. Indeed th e Camden Town stores h av e th e h igh est market sh are for an indiv idual z one (70% from Z one 2) and also th e h igh est ov erall centre total at 18%, demonstrating th e successful trading p osition of th e centre. S tores in S wiss Cottage dominate th e Z one 3 market sh are and are also significant in neigh bouring Z ones 4, 5 and 6, all of wh ich lack a modern main conv enience goods sh op p ing attraction. K ilburn deriv es a significant market sh are from Z ones 3 and 5 and 6 as ex p ected. M arket sh ares in th e two London Borough of Islington z ones (Z ones 7 and 8) are dominated by stores located in both N ags H ead and Angel. 3.47 In summary th e market sh are data confirms th at alth ough th ere are no good q uality modern conv enience foodstores in Z ones 4, 5 and 6, good q uality p rov ision is av ailable close at h and in Camden Town (Z one 2) and th e v arious centres in Z one 3. Th e ov erall p icture is of good p rov ision enabling sh op p ers to undertake th eir conv enience sh op p ing needs locally. Conv enience G oods S h op p ing Trip Ch aracteristics 3.48 Resp ondents were asked h ow th ey normally trav el to sh op for conv enience goods, and we p resent th e results for th ose centres wh ere enough resp onses were recorded to make analysis meaningful in Table 1.18 (surv ey q uestion 10). Th e table sh ows th at th ere are significant differences between th e mode used by sh op p ers in th e v arious centres. In th e Central London Area centres access on foot dominates, p resumably a large p rop ortion of such trip s are work based rath er th an h ome based. In Camden Town and S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, N ags H ead and Brent Cross th e car is th e dominant mode for residents to access th e centres, p articularly in th e case of th e latter

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centre. In Angel sh op p ers on foot outnumber th e car borne. Th e bus is significant in all centres, but surp risingly low in N ags H ead. N o oth er means of transp ort are significant for th is form of sh op p ing. 3.49 Resp ondents were asked h ow long on av erage it takes to get from h ome to th e centre, and th e results are set out in Table 1.19 (surv ey q uestion 11). Th e table demonstrates th at v irtually no h ouseh olds trav el more th an 30 minutes to undertake conv enience goods sh op p ing, indeed less th an 10% trav el for longer th an 20 minutes. Th is finding is consistent with our ex p erience of th is sector elsewh ere; sh op p ers are p rep ared to trav el for longer in rural locations, but in inner city areas th e greater av ailability of ch oice reduces th e need to trav el for much more th an 10 minutes. In th is S tudy Area two-th irds of trip s are for less th an 10 minutes. In Z ones 1, 7 and 8 ov er 70% are less th an 10 minutes. Th e inference is th at conv enience goods sh op p ing, wh ich is undertaken v ery regularly, tends to be done as close to h ome as p ossible regardless of th e q uality of th e p rov ision. Consumer V iews and Attitudes 3.50 Due to th e req uirement to keep th e q uestionnaire to a manageable length we did not ask q uestions about freq uency of v isit to conv enience goods sh op p ing locations or duration of v isit. Resp onses to such q uestions would h av e been interesting, but are not central to th e study and certainly less imp ortant th an oth er q uestions th at were asked. We did seek resp ondents‘ v iews about h ow good th e main store is at meeting th eir needs for th is typ e of sh op p ing. As for th e similar q uestion in resp ect of comp arison goods resp ondents were asked to ch oose from fiv e categories (”v ery good‘, ”good‘, ”neith er good nor p oor‘, ”p oor‘ and ”v ery p oor‘). Th e resp onses are set out in Table 1.20 (surv ey q uestion 9). 3.51 Table 1.20 demonstrates th at th e Z one 1 h ouseh olds are significantly less well serv ed for foodstore p rov ision th an h ouseh olds elsewh ere in th e S tudy Area. Ap p rox imately 30% of Z one 1 h ouseh olds consider th eir current main store p rov ision to be less th an good, i.e. ”neith er good nor p oor‘, ”p oor‘ and ”v ery p oor‘, wh ich comp ares to 13% in th e S tudy Area ov erall and less th an 10% in Z ones 3, 4 and 7. Th is finding p oints to a q ualitativ e deficiency in foodstore p rov ision for Z one 1 h ouseh olds. Th e one surp rising result is resp onse from Z one 4, wh ere th ere is v ery little modern conv enience goods retail p rov ision, but h ouseh olds are satisfied with th e stores th at th ey v isit, wh ich tends to be stores in Z ones 2 and 3.

Leisure Activ ity 3.52 We asked a series of q uestions to ascertain th e leisure h abits of th e S tudy Area h ouseh olds. Th e q uestions focused sep arately on th e eating and drinking, i.e. use of restaurants and bars, h abits of residents and also on th e commercial leisure activ ities, i.e. use of activ ities such as cinema, th eatre, bowling. Th e q uestions asked wh ere do h ouseh olds go most often, th e freq uency of v isit, th e means of trav el, journey length and finally a q uestion to determine th e degree of satisfaction with th e facilities on offer. Below we rev iew th e resp onses firstly in resp ect of th e locations to eat and drink and th en th ose to undertake commercial leisure activ ity. 1. Eating and Drinking Locations M ain Destinations 3.53 Th e resp onses to th e q uestion concerning wh ere h ouseh olds go most regularly to eat and drink are set out in Table 1.21 (surv ey q uestion 13b). Th e table indicates th at ov erall and unsurp risingly th e West End is th e p rimary location for th is typ e of activ ity with just ov er a th ird of all S tudy Area h ouseh olds v isiting for th is p urp ose. Across th e S tudy Area th e h igh est p rop ortion v isiting come from Z one 1 (45%) and th e lowest from Z ones 2 and 8, z ones wh ere Camden Town and Angel resp ectiv ely dominate as locations for th is activ ity. Ov erall Angel is th e most dominant centre after th e West End,

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but its influence is v ery focused in th e London Borough of Islington z ones (Z ones 7 and 8) with much lower draw in th e oth er z ones. Th e oth er significant centres for th is activ ity in th e S tudy Area are Camden Town and H amp stead, wh ich togeth er are th e most imp ortant centres in Z ones 2 and 4 and h av e significant draw from most oth er z ones. K ilburn, S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road and West H amp stead all h av e ex tremely localised attraction. Trip Ch aracteristics 3.54 Th e resp ondents were asked h ow freq uently th ey go to th e location most often v isited for eating and drinking, and th e resp onses are set out in Table 1.22 (surv ey q uestion 13a). Th e table indicates much less v ariation between th e z ones for th is activ ity th an th ere was for comp arison goods sh op p ing. On av erage across th e S tudy Area 40% v isit th eir p rimary location for th is activ ity on at least a weekly basis. Perh ap s th e most striking finding is th at almost a q uarter of h ouseh olds nev er undertake th is activ ity. Across th e z ones it is Z one 3, wh ich h as th e lowest p rop ortion (18%) th at nev er undertake th is activ ity and Z ones 6 and 7 th at h av e th e h igh est p rop ortion (28% and 29%). 3.55 Th e resp onses to th e trip mode q uestion are set out in Table 1.23 (surv ey q uestion 13c). Th e table indicates th at th e majority of trip s are made on foot, with most centres ex p eriencing between 40% and 50% of trip s made in th is way. Only at S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road are more trip s made by means oth er th an by foot: h ere th e car accounts for th e largest p rop ortion of trip s. Th e bus and U nderground are th e most significant modes for trip s to th e West End, and indeed th e bus in p articular is a significant mode for trip s to all th e centres. 3.56 Th e final trip ch aracteristic q uestion asked was in resp ect of journey length , and th e results are set out in Table 1.24 (surv ey q uestion 13d). Th e table reinforces th e earlier findings th at trip s are p redominantly local with ov erall almost 40% taking less th an 10 minutes and two-th irds less th an 20 minutes. Th e h igh est p rop ortion (almost a h alf) of trip s of less th an 10 minutes are undertaken by h ouseh olds in Z one 1. Z one 4 h as much th e h igh est p rop ortion of h ouseh olds th at trav el for more th an h alf and h our to th eir eating and drinking destination, wh ich is surp rising giv en th at th e z one is h ome to H amp stead, one of th e most p op ular attractions for th is typ e of activ ity. Consumer V iews and Attitudes 3.57 Th e resp onses to th e q uestion concerning v isitor satisfaction with th e eating and drinking p rov ision are sh own in Table 1.25 (surv ey q uestion 13e). Th e resp onses indicate generally h igh lev els of satisfaction, with th e ratings of ”p oor‘ or ”v ery p oor‘ centres are being almost negligible. Angel scores most h igh ly in terms of a v ery good rating with th ree q uarters of v isitors giv ing th is rating, th is comp ares to an av erage for all th e centres of around 50% and th e lowest score of 36% for K ilburn. 2. Commercial Leisure Locations M ain Destinations 3.58 Resp ondents were asked wh ich location th ey v isit most freq uently to undertake commercial leisure activ ities such as cinema and bowling. Th e results are set out in Table 1.26 (surv ey q uestion 14b). Th e ov erall p attern is unsurp risingly similar to th ose for locations for eating and drinking leisure trip s. Th e West End once more comes out on top with a little less th an a th ird of all S tudy Area trip s and Camden Town and Angel are once more significant oth er locations. H owev er, th e imp ortance of th e p rov ision at th e O2 Centre at S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road is ev ident, drawing twice as many S tudy Area trip s comp ared to th e p rov ision in Camden Town. 3.59 Across th e z ones th e West End retains two-th irds of all trip s from Z one 1, much th e h igh est figure for any z one, Z one 2 is once more dominated by Camden Town, wh ile th e influence of S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road is widely felt in p articular in Z ones 3, 4, 5 and 6.

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Trip Ch aracteristics 3.60 Trip freq uency is set out in Table 1.27 (surv ey q uestion 14a). Th e results sh ow a similar p attern to th e resp onses to th e same q uestion for eating and drinking locations with little discernible differences between th e z ones. H owev er, th is typ e of p rov ision is v isited far less freq uently th an p laces to eat and drink with only 15% of h ouseh olds using such facilities weekly or more often comp ared with 40% for th e latter. Once again th e most striking finding is th e p rop ortion of h ouseh olds th at claim nev er to use such facilities, 36% in th is case. In common with resp onses in resp ect of p laces to eat and drink Z one 3 h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of regular v isits and th e lowest (jointly with Z one 4) p rop ortion of residents nev er using such facilities. 3.61 Table 1.28 (surv ey q uestion 14c) sets out th e resp onses to th e mode of transp ort used to access th e facility q uestion. In common with trip s to p laces to eat and drink, access on foot is significantly th e most common means, once again reinforcing th e v ery local nature of th e leisure p rov ision in th e area. Almost twice as many h ouseh olds walk to Camden Town th an driv e (42% comp ared to 22%), wh ile around a th ird trav el by bus. S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road and H amp stead attract th e h igh est p rop ortion of trip s by car, alth ough in th e latter‘s case trip s by foot account for more th an h alf of all trip s and th e centre attracts th e lowest total of bus borne v isitors. 3.62 Once again with journey length th e trip ch aracteristics for commercial leisure activ ity sh ow v ery similar p rofile to th ose for trip s out to eat and drink, as is demonstrated in Table 1.29 (surv ey q uestion 14d). Ov erall th e majority of journeys (th ree q uarters) take less th an 20 minutes, and again Z one 4 h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of h ouseh olds trav elling for th e longest. Consumer V iews and Attitudes 3.63 Th e satisfaction with th e commercial leisure facilities is addressed in Table 1.30 (surv ey q uestion 14e). Th e findings are th at again th ere is general satisfaction with th e p rov ision used, again unsurp rising giv en th e scale of p rov ision in th e West End and its dominant role. Th e negativ e v iews are negligible, alth ough Camden Town, N ags H ead and somewh at surp risingly S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road draw significant numbers giv ing th e centre a neutral rating.

S ocio-demograp h ics 3.64 Th e final four tables set out th e socio-demograp h ic ch aracteristics of th e samp le. In addition to ev aluating differences between z ones, we h av e also comp ared th e samp le p rofile against ON S data for th e S tudy Area, London and G B. 3.65 Table 1.31 (surv ey q uestion 15) sets out th e socio-economic class of th e samp le and indicates th at ov erall th e samp le included h igh er p rop ortions of th e h igh er skilled h igh er earning A/B and C1 h ouseh olds comp ared with th e lower skilled/unskilled lower earning p otential C2 and D/E categories. Th ere is relativ ely little noteworth y v ariation across th e z ones. 3.66 Comp arison with th e ON S data for th e S tudy Area sh ows th e samp le p rov ides an almost ex act match for th e h igh er earning group s, alth ough th ere is under rep resentation of C2 and ov er rep resentation of D/E. Th e S tudy Area h as h igh er p rop ortions of h igh er earners th an eith er th e London or G B av erages. 3.67 Th e age (Table 1.32) (surv ey q uestion 16) and sex (Table 1.33) (surv ey q uestion 18) p rofiles ex h ibit th e ex p ected p atterns, wh ich mirror national trends with two-th irds of th e sh op p ers being female and th e modal age group being th e retired. H owev er, th ere is an interesting difference between th e age p rofiles in Z ones 5 and 6. In Z one 5 50% of sh op p ers are aged between 25 and 44 comp ared to less th an h alf th is in Z one 6. Conv ersely almost 50% of Z one 6 sh op p ers are retirement age, more th an th ree times th e p rop ortion in Z one 2.

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3.68 Comp arison with th e ON S data for th e S tudy Area indicates th at th e samp le under- rep resents th e younger age group s, but closely match es th e h igh sp ending mid-age group (th e 35-44 group ). Th e samp le is ov er-rep resented in th e older age group s. Th e ON S data also indicates th at th e S tudy Area as a wh ole h as a more youth ful p op ulation th an th e London and G B av erages. Th e ON S data also indicates th at th e samp le under-rep resents males as comp ared to females. 3.69 Th e final dataset cov ers th e eth nic makeup of th e samp le and is p resented in Table 1.34 (surv ey q uestion 17). Th e eth nicity of th e S tudy Area samp le ex h ibits some interesting v ariations. Ov erall 85% of th e S tudy Area samp le is wh ite, with black Afro- Caribbean accounting for th e largest p rop ortion of th e remainder (some 7%). Th e p rop ortion of wh ite British v aries from 49% in Z one 5 to 71% in Z one 8. Z one 5 ex h ibits th e largest div ersity of eth nic group s and Z one 8 th e least. 3.70 Th e ON S data uses aggregates of th e eth nic origin group s used in th e surv ey, but indicates th at ov erall th ere is a reasonably close correlation with th e eth nic mix samp led with in th e S tudy Area. F or ex amp le, in resp ect of th e biggest eth nic group - Wh ite British /Irish , th e h ouseh olds interv iewed in th at eth nic group eq uated to some 68% of th e samp le, wh ich comp ares to th e ON S figure of 73%. Th ere are significant differences between th e p rop ortions of h ouseh olds in different eth nic group s in th e S tudy Area comp ared to London and ev en greater differences with G B av erages.

K ey M essages 3.71 A detailed h ouseh old q uestionnaire was used across th e S tudy Area‘s eigh t z ones to establish market sh ares for both comp arison and conv enience goods. Th is inv olv ed a random samp le of 1,000 h ouseh olds, 125 h ouseh olds in each z one. Th e q uestionnaire focused on sp ending p atterns in th e identified centres with in London Borough of Camden, in two centres identified in London Borough of Islington (Angel and N ags H ead) and th ose centres elsewh ere th at draw significant numbers of sh op p ers. 3.72 Th e resultant data illustrates th e p erceiv ed function and attractiv eness of each centre and th e sh op p ing h abits of residents by z one. F or comp arison goods sh op p ing Table 1.6b demonstrates th e h uge attraction of th e West End (a 43% market sh are), followed by Brent Cross (13%). N o centre in Camden or Islington comes close to th ese centres in terms of comp arison market sh are, th e nex t rankings being Angel (6%), Camden Town (5%), and N ags H ead (4%). Th us th e dominance of th e West End and th e p resence of Brent Cross as a major div ersion of comp arison sp end is clearly confirmed by th e surv ey results. 3.73 Inev itably, market sh ares for conv enience goods p resent a v ery different and more diffused p attern of trade. In terms of th e main food sh op p ing (see Table 1.12) of th ose h ouseh olds surv eyed, th e q uestionnaire sh ows S wiss Cottage (S ainsbury and Waitrose) as th e centre with th e largest market sh are (13.4%), followed by Camden Town (S ainsbury and S afeway8) with 12.7%, Angel (S ainsbury) with 8.4% and K ilburn H igh Road (S ainsbury) with 4.8%. Th e commensurate market sh ares for all conv enience ex p enditure (see Table 1.17b) are S wiss Cottage (10%), Camden Town (18%), Angel (8%) and K ilburn H igh Road (6%). 3.74 Th e trav el ch aracteristics related to comp arison goods sh op p ing trip s demonstrates th e dominance of bus trav el. Th is accounts for two-th irds of all trip s from th e S tudy Area to Camden Town, and 50% of all trip s to th e West End. H amp stead is accessed by much th e lowest p rop ortion of bus borne sh op p ers (9%). Th e U nderground is significant as a means of trav el only to th e West End (21% of all trip s). Th is comp ares with only 4% for Camden Town.

8 Th e S afeway store in Camden Town now trades as a M orrisons store

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3.75 A significant number of journeys for comp arison goods sh op p ing p urp oses from with in th e S tudy Area are made on foot. Walking dominates trip s to H amp stead and is significant for oth er centres with a largely local catch ment, namely K ilburn H igh Road (42%), N ags H ead (38%) and Angel (31%). As migh t be ex p ected, trip s to Brent Cross are largely car borne (71%), with no oth er centre h av ing more th an 20% of trip s by car. Th us th e general p attern is v ery much one of reliance on p ublic transp ort for most centres, but th is transp ort is generally bus- and not Tube-based.

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4 PROF ILE OF V IS ITORS TO CAM DEN AN D IS LIN G TON CEN TRES

4.1 In th is section we assess th e h abits and attitudes of v isitors using th e Borough ‘s main sh op p ing centres, and th ose of v isitors to Angel and N ags H ead in neigh bouring Islington. Th e selection of centres was based on a v ariety of criteria. Ch ief amongst th ese was th e need to secure information on th ose centres, wh ich are considered to benefit th e most from v isitor sp ending, and th us centres such as K ilburn, S wiss Cottage, West H amp stead and K entish Town were not selected. Two Islington centres were included because th ey are th e closest centres to London Borough of Camden. 4.2 Th e assessment is made th rough analysis of th e results of a series of street-side sh op p ers‘ surv eys th at were undertaken in th e centres during normal sh op p ing h ours (1000 to 1700 h ours) on F riday 5 and S aturday 6 S ep tember 2003. Th e centres surv eyed were: ° Ch aring Cross Road ° Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) ° H atton G arden ° H igh H olborn ° Tottenh am Court Road ° Camden Town ° H amp stead ° Angel ° N ags H ead 4.3 Th e surv eys samp led a rep resentativ e number of v isitors in each of th e centres (50 on th e F riday and 50 on th e S aturday) th rough out th e sh op p ing day and th e interv iewers roamed freely in th e centres to av oid any locational or time-related bias. Inev itably, th e p recise location of any on-th e-street surv ey will h av e some bearing on th e surv ey results, but our ex p erience indicates th at th e meth od emp loyed will p rov ide a fair rep resentation of v isitor p rofiles across th e wh ole of th ose centres surv eyed. Th e surv ey days (a F riday and a S aturday) were selected to reflect a typ ical weekday (F riday is accep ted to be such ) and th e situation at th e weekend. 4.4 Th e surv ey was based on a structured q uestionnaire th at asked a series of unp romp ted q uestions aimed at drawing out information on v isitor h abits and attitudes in each sp ecific centre. Th e q uestionnaire is rep roduced at Ap p endix 2 of th is rep ort along with th e surv ey results set out in 20 tables. 4.5 Below, we analyse th e resp onses to th e surv eys referring to th e tables at Ap p endix 2, but also using a series of bar ch arts embedded in th is section, wh ich we use to illustrate some of th e data. Th e ch arts are ordered as p er th e list of centres giv en at p aragrap h 4.2. We firstly consider th e ch aracteristics of th e v isitors in th e centres th en we mov e on to consider th e p urp ose of th e trip , sp ending, accessibility ch aracteristics before considering th e attitudes of th e v isitors to th e centres, and finally we draw out th e key messages from th e surv ey work.

V isitor Ch aracteristics 4.6 We asked a series of q uestions to determine th e v isitor ch aracteristics, wh ich were in resp ect of sex (surv ey q uestion 16), age group (surv ey q uestion 17) and residence (surv ey q uestion 18/19). Th e th ree ch arts below illustrate th e v isitor ch aracteristics: sex , age and p lace of residence in each of th e centres surv eyed.

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Ch art 4.1 S ex of V isitors

Ch aring Cross Road 54 46

Cov ent G arden, p art 42 58

H atton G arden 55 45

H igh H olborn 41 59

Tottenh am Court Road 51 49

Camden Town 40 60

H amp stead 37 63

Angel 34 66 N ags H ead 13 87

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% M ale F emale S ource: Table 2.18, Ap p endix 2.2

4.7 Ch art 4.1 (and Table 2.18, Ap p endix 2.2) illustrates th at th e Central London Area centres (th e top fiv e in th e ch art) generally ex h ibit similar sex ch aracteristics ranging between 41 œ 55% males. Th e major/district centres h av e lower p rop ortions of males, albeit Camden Town only 1% less. H owev er, N ags H ead h as by far th e smallest p rop ortion of males at just 13%. Ch art 4.2 V isitor Age G roup

Ch aring Cross Road 2 40 16 40 20 9 8 5 Cov ent G arden, p art 2 32 24 16 11 10 5 H atton G arden 1 10 33 19 14 10 10

H igh H olborn 11 20 32 20 15 6 1

Tottenh am Court Road 2 17 43 23 8 5 2

Camden Town 11 15 25 24 12 5 7

H amp stead 2 22 27 25 18 3 2

Angel 5 15 26 25 15 9 4

N ags H ead 1 17 23 18 14 10 16

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% U nder 18 18-24 yrs 25-34 yrs 35-44 yrs 45-55 yrs 56-64 yrs 65+ yrs

S ource: Table 2.19, Ap p endix 2.2

4.8 Ch art 4.2 abov e (and Table 2.19, Ap p endix 2.2) sets out th e age of th e resp ondents. Th e age band p rov iding th e biggest p rop ortion of v isitors in all centres is th e 25-34 group , wh ich again is more p ronounced for th e Central London Area centres ranging

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from 32-40% comp ared to th e oth er centres, wh ich range between 23-27%. N ags H ead h as much th e h igh est p rop ortion of retired v isitors (16%), and H atton G arden h as th e smallest p rop ortion of v isitors aged less th an 24 (11%). Ch art 4.3 Residence of V isitors

Charing Cross Road 6 8 2 43 24 17

Covent Garden, part 4 14 52 29 11 Camden

Hatton Garden 19 8 7 45 19 Islington

High Holborn 20 5 3 48 13 11 Westminster

Tottenham Court Road 17 7 2 39 16 19 Oth er London Borough Camden Town 38 5 1 31 18 7 Elsewh ere in th e U K Hampstead 39 15 49 4 2 Outside th e U K Angel 6 41 1 41 10 2

Nags Head 4 75 0 19 20

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% S ource: Table 2.20, Ap p endix 2.2

4.9 Ch art 4.3 (and Table 2.20, Ap p endix 2.2) identify th e residence of th e surv ey resp ondent. Th e location th at h as a significantly h igh er p rop ortion of local residents is N ags H ead wh ere 75% of v isitors are resident in th e Borough of Islington. Th e h igh p ercentage of local p eop le in N ags H ead is reflected in th e sh op p ing h abits of th e area; of th e nine locations it is th e most likely to be used for sup ermarket and grocery sh op p ing. 4.10 Th e nex t h igh est p rop ortion of local borough v isitors is th e oth er Islington centre, Angel (41%), th en H amp stead (39%) and Camden Town (38%). H owev er, unlike N ags H ead th ese th ree locations also h av e significant numbers of v isitors from elsewh ere in London and elsewh ere in th e U K . Interestingly, and p erh ap s surp risingly, only a q uarter of v isitors to Camden Town are from outside London. 4.11 Th e Central London Area centres h av e a far h igh er p rop ortion of v isitors from elsewh ere in th e U K and foreign tourists th an th e oth er centres. Cov ent G arden (north ern p art), unsurp risingly, leads th e way with 40% of v isitors coming from beyond London. Th e p rop ortion and/or th e absolute number of v isitors is likely to be h igh er still in th e p rincip al areas of Cov ent G arden - J ames S treet and Th e Piaz z a. 4.12 Central London Area centres are much more likely to h av e v isitors from outside th e U K th an th e oth er centres. Almost a fifth of th e v isitors (19%) to Tottenh am Court Road are from outside th e U K , and 17% are from abroad on Ch aring Cross Road. Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) and H igh H olborn each h av e 11% of th e v isitors from abroad, alth ough th e oth er Central London Area centre, H atton G arden, h as somewh at surp risingly only 1%.

Trip Ch aracteristics 4.13 We now turn to look at th e reasons wh y v isits to th e centres are made, th e freq uency of v isits and th e duration of stay. We asked q uestions identifying th e main p urp ose of th e v isit (surv ey q uestion 1a), wh at oth er activ ities were intended (surv ey q uestion 1b), th e freq uency of v isits (surv ey q uestion 6) and th e duration of th e v isit (surv ey q uestion 7).

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Th e main p urp ose of th e v isit 4.14 Table 4.1 below sets out th e main reasons for v isiting each of th e centres aggregated into sh op p ing and non-sh op p ing related reasons. Table 4.1 Purp ose of V isit Location S h op p ing N on-sh op p ing Ch aring Cross Road 45% 52% Cov ent G arden, p art 54% 45% H atton G arden 31% 68% H igh H olborn 28% 72% Tottenh am Court Road 38% 58% Camden Town 47% 53% H amp stead 36% 63% Angel 57% 43% N ags H ead 69% 29%

S ource: Table 2.1, Ap p endix 2.2 N B Totals do not always add to 100% because figures ex clude v isitors wh o did not resp ond to th is q uestion

4.15 Table 4.1 abov e indicates th at th e locations most likely to be v isited mainly for a sh op p ing p urp ose are N ags H ead (69%), Angel (57%) and Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) (54%). In th e case of N ags H ead th is reflects th e relativ e lack of non-sh op p ing attractions. N on-sh op p ing reasons are more p rev alent in H igh H olborn (72%), H atton G arden (68%) and H amp stead (63%), th e former two centres most likely due to work related reasons. 4.16 We now turn to Table 2.1, Ap p endix 2.2 to identify th e activ ities undertaken in more detail. Th e area most likely to be v isited mainly for sh op p ing for cloth es and sh oes is Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) (28%), and indeed th is is th e p rimary reason of v isiting th is centre. Th e oth er centres v isited mainly for th is p urp ose are; Camden Town (16%), H amp stead (14%) and N ags H ead (11%). S urp risingly only 4% of v isitors to th e Angel v isit th e centre mainly for cloth es and sh oe sh op p ing. 4.17 S h op p ing at sup ermarkets is th e main reason for v isits to N ags H ead (22%), th e nex t h igh est destination for sup ermarket sh op p ing being th e oth er Islington centre, Angel (12%). Wh ere non-sup ermarket grocery sh op p ing is concerned th e N ags H ead again is th e location th at is most likely to be v isited (25%), followed by Angel (9%) and Camden Town (7%). 4.18 Turning now to oth er sp ecific forms of comp arison goods it comes as no surp rise th at th e centre most likely to be v isited p rimarily for buying jewellery is H atton G arden (21%), and sh op p ing for electrical goods is th e main reason to v isit Tottenh am Court Road (27%). 4.19 M ov ing on to consider non-sh op p ing reasons for v isiting th e centres, it is difficult to fully sep arate v isits to p ubs from (oth er) leisure v isits. N ev erth eless, th e ev idence suggests th at v isits to p ubs, cafes, restaurants are not significant reasons for v isiting th e centres by day at least. M ore significant reasons are v isiting banks/building societies (43% of v isitors to H atton G arden do so mainly for th is reason), wh ich is not unex p ected with th e largely office workforce-based catch ment p op ulation, leisure/recreation (almost one in fiv e v isitors to H amp stead (18%) do so for th is reason), and work related reasons wh ere Ch aring Cross Road (31%) and H igh H olborn (28%) h av e th e h igh est p rop ortions. F req uency of v isits 4.20 Th e freq uency of v isits to each of th e centres is set out in Table 2.8, Ap p endix 2.2. Th e table demonstrates th at H atton G arden is by some measure th e most freq uently

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v isited location with daily v isits by 56% of v isitors. Th e nex t most often freq uented centre is H igh H olborn wh ere 38% of v isits are made on a daily basis. Both of th ese centres tend to function as p redominantly work p lace destinations wh ere v isitors‘ main p urp ose is work rath er th an any form of sh op p ing/leisure, and th is almost certainly ex p lains th e h igh freq uencies in th ese locations. 4.21 Th e two Islington centres h av e th e h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors making more th an weekly v isits to th e centres (66% and 64% resp ectiv ely), wh ich indicates th at th ese centres p rov ide a v ery localised sh op p ing function. Th is result was ex p ected for N ags H ead, but is a little surp rising for Angel, but may reflect th e attraction in p articular of th e Liv erp ool Road S ainsbury store and/or Ch ap el S treet market. 4.22 Th e Central London Area centres h av e a much h igh er p rop ortion of first time or infreq uent v isitor. A th ird of v isitors to Ch aring Cross Road, Tottenh am Court Road and Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) are doing so eith er for th e first time or as a rare v isit. Th is is likely to be due to th e significant p rop ortions of v isitors in th ese locations th at are eith er from outside London or foreign tourists. A q uarter of all v isitors to Tottenh am Court Road are v isiting for th e first time, wh ich is by far and away th e h igh est p rop ortion of all th e centres. Duration of v isit 4.23 Th e duration of v isit to th e centres is set out in Table 2.9, Ap p endix 2.2. N one of th e centres h av e h igh p rop ortions of v isitors sp ending less th an h alf an h our in th e centre, wh ich is encouraging from a retailer p ersp ectiv e, as th ere is a general correlation between length of stay and sp end. H owev er, Angel and p articularly N ags H ead h av e th e h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors sp ending relativ ely sh ort p eriods (less th an an h our) in th e centres (35% and 42% resp ectiv ely). 4.24 All th e centres, ex cep t for H atton G arden, attract a large p rop ortion of v isitors for between one and two h ours. N ags H ead again comes out top for th is typ e of v isitor, wh ich means th at only ap p rox imately a q uarter of all v isitors stay for more th an two h ours, all th e oth er centres h av ing at least double th is p rop ortion. 4.25 Th e majority of th e centres attract significant p rop ortions of v isitors wh o stay for th e longest p eriod (ov er four h ours) and it is likely th at th ese are p redominantly tourists and workp lace v isitors both in th e Central London Area centres and elsewh ere. H atton G arden h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors staying for more th an four h ours (52%), wh ich is likely to be workp lace v isitors. 4.26 Turning to consider duration of v isit in relation to residence, Table 2.9, Ap p endix 2.2 demonstrates th at ov erall residents liv ing in local London Borough s are th e most likely to sp end up to an h our in a location comp ared with th ose from elsewh ere (42% comp ared to 12%). H owev er, residents from elsewh ere in th e U K /non-local residents tend to sp end much longer p eriods in th e centres th an th e locals, av eraging ap p rox imately 2.5 h ours comp ared to below two h ours for v isitors from local London Borough s.

S p ending Ch aracteristics 4.27 We asked two q uestions to determine v isitor sp end ch aracteristics. Th e q uestions asked wh at typ e of goods (if any) th e v isitor h ad or intended to buy in th e centre (surv ey q uestion 2) and h ow much th e v isitor intended to sp end on th e goods (surv ey q uestion 3). Below, we rep ort on th e resp onses to th ese q uestions, and to aid our understanding of th e sp ending p atterns between th e different v isitor group s in each of th e centres we also cross-tabulate th e resp onses to surv ey q uestions 2 and 3 by th e q uestion th at asked th e v isitor‘s p lace of residence (surv ey q uestion 19).

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Ch art 4.4 S p ending Ch aracteristics

Ch aring Cross Road 42 11 3 44

Cov ent G arden, p art 42 23 8 27

Comp arision G oods H atton G arden 29 24 12 36

H igh H olborn 19 22 4 55 Conv enience G oods

Tottenh am Court Road 41 9 7 43 Both Conv enience & comp arision Camden Town 42 35 4 19 N oth ing H amp stead 21 29 24 26

Angel 27 42 8 23

N ags H ead 10 49 14 27

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% S ource: Table 2.3, Ap p endix 2.2

4.28 Below, we analyse th e data p resented in Ch art 4.4 with regard to th e comp arison and conv enience goods p urch ases. V isitors to th e Central London Area centres Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) (42%), Ch aring Cross Road (42%), Tottenh am Court Road (41%) and Camden Town (42%) are much more likely to p urch ase comp arison goods th an v isitors in th e oth er locations. Ov erall Camden Town is th e p rincip al location wh ere v isitors undertake some form of sh op p ing, with ov er 80% doing so. At th e oth er end of th e sp ectrum only 10% of v isitors to N ags H ead make comp arison goods sh op p ing p urch ases, alth ough in th e case of th at centre h alf of all v isitors make conv enience goods sh op p ing p urch ases. Th e p rop ortions of v isitors making both conv enience and comp arison goods p urch ases are relativ ely small ex cep t in th e case of H amp stead wh ere a q uarter of v isitors p urch ase both typ es of goods. 4.29 In addition to N ags H ead, conv enience goods are also th e p rincip al p urch ase made in Angel (42%), H amp stead (29%) and H igh H olborn (22%). Th e findings reinforce th e significance of th e day-to-day conv enience goods sh op p ing role of th ese centres. 4.30 Comp aring th e p rop ensity to sp end on comp arison and conv enience goods h elp s to identify th e role of th e centres. It is clear from th e surv ey th at v isitors to N ags H ead are fiv e times as likely to be buying conv enience goods as comp arison, but for Angel th e p rop ortion is much lower at 1.6 times more likely, and ev en lower in H amp stead (1.4 times more likely), and for Camden Town th e ratio rev erses (with a p rop ortion of 0.8 - i.e. more v isitors making comp arison goods p urch ases th an conv enience goods p urch ases). Th e Central London Area centres also v ary in th e p rop ortion of v isitors sp ending on conv enience and comp arison goods. V isitors to H igh H olborn are more likely to p urch ase conv enience goods th an comp arison goods (1.2 times more likely), in Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) v isitors are twice as likely to make comp arison goods p urch ase and at Ch aring Cross Road and Tottenh am Court Road almost four times as likely. 4.31 With th e ex cep tion of Cov ent G arden (north ern p art), th e Central London Area centres h av e th e h igh est p rop ortions of v isitors th at make no p urch ases at all. 4.32 We h av e also rev iewed th e sp ending ch aracteristics of th e v arious v isitor group s and p resent th is cross tabulation in th e final columns of Table 2.3. Th e table demonstrates some v ery clear p atterns. Th e most ev ident p attern is th at more local London residents

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(defined as residents of Camden, Islington and Westminster) v isit th e centres to buy conv enience rath er th an comp arison goods (38% comp ared to 22%). Th e rev erse is true for v isitors from beyond th e local Borough s. S p end in th e area 4.33 Of th ose indicating th at th ey h av e/intend to make p urch ases we th en asked h ow much th ey h av e/intend to sp end (surv ey q uestions 3a and 3b), coding th e answers in sp end bands (Tables 2.4 and 2.5, Ap p endix 2.2). Th e ch arts below set out th e mean sp end firstly on conv enience goods and th en th at on comp arison goods. Ch art 4.5 M ean S p end on Conv enience G oods (£ sterling)

3.71 Ch aring Cross Road 3.5 Cov ent G arden, p art 16.42 H atton G arden 4.89 H igh H olborn 2.11 Tottenh am Court Road 7.43 Camden Town 12.36 H amp stead 12.37 Angel 18.12 N ags H ead £0.00 £5.00 £10.00 £15.00 £20.00

S ource: Table 2.4, Ap p endix 2.2

4.34 N ags H ead is th e centre with th e h igh est mean sp end on conv enience goods (£18.12) with Tottenh am Court Road h av ing th e lowest with an av erage sp end of £2.11. Th ese results reflect both th e typ e of v isitors to th e area and th e nature of th e p rov ision œ N ags H ead being th e centre with th e h igh est p rop ortion of local v isitors, and foodstore p rov ision th at can cater for bulk conv enience goods sh op p ing, and Tottenh am Court Road one of th e lowest p rop ortions of local v isitors and foodstore p rov ision wh ich is much more ”top -up ‘ in nature. Th e conv enience goods sp end in centres outside Central London is considerably h igh er th an th e Central London Area centres with th e ex cep tion of H atton G arden wh ere th e Leath er Lane market is likely to account for th e h igh sp end. 4.35 Th e final four columns of Table 2.4, Ap p endix 2.2 adds to th e abov e analysis by calculating th e mean sp end by v isitor group . Th e table demonstrates th e imp ortance of residents of th e local London Borough s in terms of sp end on conv enience goods (ach iev ing a mean sp end of £14.64), wh ich is significantly h igh er th an all oth er group s. ”Oth er London‘ and ”Elsewh ere in th e U K ‘ group s sp end only ap p rox imately a th ird as much as locals (mean sp end £5.38 and £4.35) and th e foreign tourists only h alf as much again (mean sp end £2.83).

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Ch art 4.6 M ean S p end on Comp arison G oods (£ sterling)

Ch aring Cross Rd 20.17

Cov ent G arden, p art 45.41

H atton G arden 77.92

H igh H olborn 24.82

Tottenh am Court Rd 95.15

Camden Town 36.10

H amp stead 27.30

Angel 14.92

N ags H ead 16.30

£0.00 £10.00 £20.00£30.00£40.00 £50.00£60.00 £70.00£80.00£90.00 £100.0

0 S ource: Table 2.5, Ap p endix 2.2

4.36 G enerally th e comp arison goods sp end trend is th e rev erse of th at for conv enience goods, th at is h igh est in th e Central London Area centres and much less in th e oth er centres, alth ough Camden Town and H amp stead sh ow reasonably h igh lev els of sp end. V isitors to th e Islington centres undertaking comp arison goods sh op p ing, sp end th e least. 4.37 V isitors to Tottenh am Court Road on av erage record th e h igh est sp end £95.15, Tottenh am Court Road is also th e centre wh ere v isitors making p urch ases are most likely to sp end ov er £200 (Table 2.5, Ap p endix 2.2). Th e lowest comp arison goods sp end is in Angel and N ags H ead wh ere v isitors making p urch ases on av erage sp end only £14.92 and £16.30 resp ectiv ely. 4.38 Th e final four columns of Table 2.5 of Ap p endix 2.2 set out sp end by th e different v isitor group s. M uch th e h igh est sp enders are th ose th at liv e in ”oth er London Borough s‘ (mean sp end £59.42), followed by th ose from outside th e U K and th ose liv ing elsewh ere in th e U K (£38.17 and £38.14 resp ectiv ely). Residents liv ing in local London Borough s sp end on av erage only a th ird of th at sp ent by th eir ”oth er London Borough counterp arts, and only h alf as much as th ose liv ing outside London at an av erage sp end of £20.64.

Transp ort and Accessibility Ch aracteristics 4.39 We now mov e on to consider th e transp ort and accessibility ch aracteristics of th e v isitors to th e centres. We asked two q uestions to determine th e mode of transp ort used to access th e centre (surv ey q uestion 4) and journey time to th e centre (surv ey q uestion 5). M ode of transp ort 4.40 Table 2.6 of Ap p endix 2.2 sets out th e mode of transp ort used by resp ondents to reach th e centres, and demonstrates th e dominance of p ublic transp ort and modes oth er th an th e p riv ate car. Th e Central London Area centres h av e th e h igh est p rop ortion, 92% of v isitors to Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) for ex amp le use means oth er th an th e p riv ate car. Th e p rop ortion is th e same in Camden Town, and only in H amp stead do significant p rop ortions of v isitors (a th ird) use th e p riv ate car to access th e town centre.

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4.41 Th ese findings confirm th e v iew th at th e p riv ate car is not necessary for sh op p ing trip s in th is p art of Inner London, as th e ov erwh elming majority of sh op p ing trip s are made by p ublic transp ort. We susp ect th at th e p rop ortions using th e car for conv enience goods sh op p ing will be less th an th e ov erall av erages, as in our ex p erience th e car is th e dominant mode for main conv enience goods sh op p ing trip s. 4.42 Walking is th e single most p op ular mode for trip s to a number of centres with significant p rop ortions of v isitors to N ags H ead 46%, Angel 35%, H atton G arden 35% and Camden Town 33% making th e journey on foot. Duration of J ourney Ch art 4.7 Duration of J ourney

Ch aring Cross Road 11 19 24 8 29

Cov ent G arden, p art 13 14 17 26 30

H atton G arden 21 15 20 8 35

H igh H olborn 19 21 26 16 18

Tottenh am Court Road 19 14 36 12 19

Camden Town 34 29 12 7 18

H amp stead 22 29 17 19 13

Angel 39 27 13 9 11

N ags H ead 34 36 17 4 8

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0-10 minutes 11-20 minutes 21-30 minutes 31-45 minutes ov er 45 minutes

S ource: Table 2.7, Ap p endix 2.2

4.43 Ch art 4.7 abov e demonstrates th at th e centres th at h av e th e h igh est p rop ortion of journeys of less th an ten minutes are Angel, N ags H ead and Camden Town, a finding th at corresp onds to th e h igh p rop ortion of walk-in v isitors in th ese centres. Additionally, two-th irds of v isitors to th e abov e mentioned centres h av e journey times of less th an 20 minutes. H amp stead is th e only non-Central London centre wh ere journey times tend to be longer (only h alf, as op p osed to two-th irds, taking less th an 20 minutes), wh ich is likely to reflect th e fact th at alth ough 40% of v isitors are from LB Camden, a th ird trav el by car, wh ich th e surv ey indicates (Table 2.16. Ap p endix 2.2) is associated with p roblems of a lack of car p arking, wh ich suggests a significant p rop ortion of th e journey time for car borne sh op p ers is sp ent seeking out a sp ace to p ark. As ex p ected th e Central London Area centres h av e much th e h igh est p rop ortion of more length y journeys for ex amp le 30% of v isitors to Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) h av e journey times in ex cess of 45 minutes.

V isitor Attitudes 4.44 We asked a series of q ualitativ e q uestions to ascertain v isitors‘ attitudes and satisfaction with th e local centres. Th e q uestions determined wh eth er th e centre was th e main centre used for comp arison goods sh op p ing (surv ey q uestion 8), wh ich oth er centres are v isited for comp arison goods sh op p ing p urp oses (surv ey q uestion 15), th e reasons for ch oosing to v isit th e centre (surv ey q uestion 10), th e general satisfaction

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with th e p rov ision of sh op p ing and leisure facilities (surv ey q uestions 9, 12 & 13) and measures th at would make for imp rov ement (surv ey q uestion 14). 4.45 Th e ov erwh elming p attern illustrated in Table 4.2 below is th at across th e board th e majority of v isitors in each of th e centres use anoth er centre as th eir main location for comp arison goods sh op p ing. Indeed th e only centres wh ere more th an 20% use th e centre v isited as th e main location for th is typ e of sh op p ing are N ags H ead (40%) and Angel (29%). Th ese h igh totals, esp ecially at N ags H ead, reflect th e fact th at th ese centres h av e much lower p rop ortions of v isitors from beyond London Borough of Islington and th e borough residents are using th ese centres for comp arison goods sh op p ing. 4.46 Th e p attern in th e Central London Area centres is of h igh p rop ortions of v isitors from beyond th e local area wh o use oth er centres for th eir main comp arison goods sh op p ing. It seems likely th at th e relativ ely h igh p rop ortions of v isitors to Tottenh am Court Road and Ch aring Cross Road are ex p lained by v isitors associating sh op p ing in th ese locations with trip s to Ox ford S treet / th e West End more generally. M ain Centre Table 4.2 M ain Centre for Comp arison G oods S h op p ing Location M ain Centre - M ain Centre - Y es N o Ch aring Cross Road 17% 83% Cov ent G arden, p art 9% 91% H atton G arden 11% 89% H igh H olborn 4% 96% Tottenh am Court 13% 87% Road Camden Town 11% 89% H amp stead 13% 87% Angel 29% 71% N ags H ead 40% 60% Ch aring Cross Road 17% 83% Cov ent G arden, p art 9% 91% H atton G arden 11% 89% S ource: Table 2.10, Ap p endix 2.2

M eeting Comp arison G oods S h op p ing N eeds 4.47 Table 2.11, Ap p endix 2.2 sets out v isitor satisfaction with th e comp arison goods p rov ision in th e centres. Th e mean score towards th e bottom of th e table indicates th at ov erall th e combined score for all of th e centres is a score marginally ov er av erage (3.21, av erage being 3.0). H owev er, th ere is significant v ariance between th e scores ach iev ed by th e indiv idual centres. Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) outp erforms all th e oth er centres by some margin in terms of meeting v isitor needs for comp arison goods sh op p ing with th ree q uarters rating th e centre ”v ery good‘ or ”good‘ and a mean score of ov er 4.0. H amp stead is th e nex t best p erforming centre (62% of v isitors rating th e centre ”good‘ or better), and th e centre ach iev es a mean score of 3.76. Of th e oth er centres only Camden Town and Angel ach iev e a mean score greater th an th e av erage. 4.48 Th e lowest rated centres are th ree of th e Central London Area centres (H atton G arden, H igh H olborn and Tottenh am Court Road), wh ich ach iev e mean scores of 2.6, 2.5 and 2.7 resp ectiv ely), wh ich is likely to reflect th e sp ecialist roles of th ese centres, alth ough

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th e oth er sp ecialist Central London Area centre, Ch aring Cross Road is p erceiv ed to be better at meeting needs. Oth er F req uently V isited Centres 4.49 Table 2.17, Ap p endix 2.2 demonstrates th at ov erall th e most freq uently v isited centre for cloth es and sh oe sh op p ing is th e West End/Central London9 (58%), followed by Brent Cross 15% and Camden Town (10%). Th e West End/Central London is th e most freq uently v isited sh op p ing destination for v isitors in all locations and by all v isitor group s, but p articularly by London-based v isitors. Almost h alf (46%) of all v isitors to H amp stead also sh op at Brent Cross. Wood G reen is a significant alternativ e destination for v isitors to N ags H ead and Camden Town. 4.50 A th ird of v isitors from outside th e U K are most likely to v isit th e West End and oth er Central London Area centres to sh op for cloth es and sh oes. Th ey are v ery unlikely to v isit local centres for th is p urp ose. Th is is also th e case for th ose liv ing elsewh ere in th e U K (43% v isit th e West End/Central London). Reasons for ch oosing to v isit th e centre 4.51 Th e reasons for v isits to th e centres are set out in Table 2.12, Ap p endix 2.2 in resp onse to surv ey q uestion 10. Th e resp ondents were free to mention multip le reasons for th eir v isit, and so some of th e columns will add to more th an 100%. Th e resp onses giv en include all reasons giv en, including leisure activ ity, and we make assessment of th e resp onses below. H owev er, th e surv ey also asked sp ecific and sep arate q uestions relating to food and drink and D2 leisure activ ity, and we rep ort on th e resp onses to th e q uestions in detail subseq uently. 4.52 Two-th irds of v isitors to N ags H ead do so because it is close to h ome, wh ich tallies with th e h igh p rop ortion of v isitors to N ags H ead from local Borough s (Ch art 4.3). Th e nex t h igh est p rop ortion is at Angel (42%). 4.53 Conv enience of location (in terms of it being close to work) is also a key reason for v isiting H atton G arden (29%) and H igh H olborn (28%). 4.54 A th ird of all v isitors to Tottenh am Court Road use th e centre because of th e good selection/ q uality of sh op s, wh ich reflects th e q uality of th e sp ecialist offer in th is centre, and almost a q uarter ch oose to sh op in Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) (24%) and H amp stead (23%) for th e reason of th e selection and q uality of sh op p ing p rov ision. 4.55 Almost a fifth (19%) of v isitors in H amp stead ch oose to v isit because it is a ”p leasant p lace to sh op ‘, wh ich is much th e h igh est p rop ortion, and is in contrast to only 1% of v isitors in N ags H ead wh o cite th is as a reason to v isit. 4.56 Th e markets in H atton G arden (Leath er Lane) and Camden Town are a reason for v isiting th e centres for between one in six and one in sev en v isitors (16% and 18% resp ectiv ely), wh ich is a significant attraction. M eeting F ood and Drink Leisure N eeds 4.57 Th e resp onses to th e q uestion th at asked if th e centre th e resp ondent was located in met th eir need for food and drink facilities (surv ey q uestion 13), are set out in Table 2.15 of Ap p endix 2.2. Table 2.15 indicates th at all centres with th e ex cep tion of N ags H ead h av e ov er 50% of v isitors rating th e p rov ision of cafes/bars/restaurants ”v ery good‘ or ”good‘. Angel is th e top p erformer with a rating of ov er 90%. All th e Central London Area centres h av e a ”v ery good/good‘ rating of ov er 60%. Th e general lev els of

9 West End/ Central London definition œ th e q uestion asked ”Wh ich oth er centre do you v isit most freq uently for cloth es and sh oe sh op p ing‘ and th e resp onses were not p romp ted, and th erefore we can conclude th at v isitors gav e th e answer ”West End or Central London‘ because th ey were not able to distinguish between th e v arious areas th at collectiv ely constitute th e West End/Central London area.

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satisfaction are h igh with no centre oth er th an N ags H ead, h av ing a mean score of much less th an 4.0 (th e score for a rating of ”good‘). M eeting Commercial Leisure N eeds 4.58 Th e resp onses to th e q uestion addressing satisfaction with meeting commercial leisure needs (q uestion 12) are set out in Table 2.14 of Ap p endix 2.2. V isitors to Cov ent G arden (north ern p art), as would be ex p ected, score Cov ent G arden10 h igh est in resp ect of meeting needs for commercial leisure facilities with much th e h igh est mean score of ov er 4.2, i.e. better th an th e ”good‘ rating score of 4.0. Th e only oth er centres with ratings ap p roach ing 4.0 are Angel and Ch aring Cross Road. H owev er, p erh ap s th e most noteworth y message from th e resp ondents is th e h igh p rop ortion of day-time v isitors wh o do not use such leisure facilities (th e ”don‘t know‘ category). It is v ery likely th at if th e same q uestions were asked in th e ev ening, outside th e core sh op p ing h ours, th e resp onses would be v ery different. Comp aring th e p rop ortions of ”don‘t know‘ resp onses for food and drink and D2 activ ity tends to suggest th at wh ereas v isitors do v isit A3 facilities by day far fewer v isit D2 leisure facilities by day. N on-sh op p ing facilities used 4.59 Table 2.13, Ap p endix 2.2 sets out th e resp onses from v isitors in resp ect of wh at non- sh op p ing facilities th ey use in th e centres. H owev er, as with th e p rev ious discussion on leisure activ ity, th ere is a need for some degree of caution with interp reting th e results as th e surv eys were conducted only during th e core sh op p ing h ours (1000 œ 1700). Th e main finding is th at ov erall less th an 50% of v isitors use any such facilities. Th e p rop ortion v aries from Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) wh ere two-th irds of v isitors use such facilities to H atton G arden and N ags H ead wh ere ap p rox imately th ree q uarters of v isitors do not use such facilities. 4.60 In all locations th e most common non-sh op p ing activ ity is v isiting restaurants/cafes/ bars. V isitors to Tottenh am Court Rd (47%), th e north ern p art of Cov ent G arden (43%), Angel (39%) and H igh H olborn (38%) use th ese facilities th e most. Table 2.13 also demonstrates th at v isitors from beyond th e local London Borough s are more likely to use such facilities (th e th ree non-local Borough group s av eraging 35% comp ared to an av erage of 25% for local Borough ). 4.61 Oth er th an v isits to restaurants/cafes/bars th e p rop ortions of v isitors using oth er non- sh op p ing facilities is v ery low. Ten p er cent of v isitors to Camden v isit th e cinema, 9% of v isitors to Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) v isit th e th eatre and 9% of v isitors to Tottenh am Court Road v isit a museum/art gallery. N ine p er cent of v isitors to H amp stead v isit th e H eath /oth er op en sp ace. V isitors from outside th e U K are much more likely to v isit museums, galleries and th e th eatre th an U K residents. Imp rov ements S uggested by Resp ondents 4.62 Th e resp onses to surv ey q uestion 14, wh ich asked for suggested imp rov ements to th e centres are set out in Table 2.16 of Ap p endix 2.2. Th e table indicates, in common with such surv eys we h av e conducted elsewh ere th at most v isitors made no suggestions at all (45%). Th e p rop ortions v ary from just ov er 50% in Tottenh am Court Road, Ch aring Cross Road, Camden Town and H amp stead to only 19% at N ags H ead. Th ese generally h igh p rop ortions does not necessarily constitute a ringing endorsement of th e centres, as v isitors inv ariably find it h ard to come up with suggestions in resp onse to street surv eys esp ecially if th e v isit is a rare one or ev en a first. Th erefore th e suggested imp rov ements, albeit mostly low in p ercentage terms, do reflect imp ortant issues for consideration.

10 It is v ery likely to be th e case th at resp ondents in Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) h av e not distinguish ed th eir resp onse between th e London Borough of Camden sector of Cov ent G arden and th at with in London Borough of Westminster, and so h av e considered all th e leisure facilities av ailable in th e area wh en resp onding to th is q uestion.

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4.63 Access to th e centres is generally not considered to be an issue for imp rov ement in th e centres ex cep t for H amp stead wh ere access and p arking are identified as issues, p articularly th e latter. H igh H olborn is th e location wh ere v isitors consider more and a better range of sh op s would h elp . Interestingly H amp stead is also identified as a location wh ere more sh op s would make for imp rov ement. A better range of sh op s at N ags H ead is also identified as a suggested imp rov ement. 4.64 Ov erall th e resp onses ap p ear to indicate th at th e p rov ision of leisure facilities is adeq uate as only 1% of v isitors considered th is to be an issue. Imp rov ing th e sh op p ing env ironment was most keenly considered imp ortant in H igh H olborn (22%) and N ags H ead (17%), with no oth er centre scoring abov e 5%.

K ey M essages 4.65 Below, we draw out th e key messages from th e V isitor S urv ey in resp ect of each of th e centres surv eyed starting with th e fiv e Central London Area centres, followed by Camden Town and H amp stead, and th en th e two London Borough of Islington centres. 4.66 Central London Area centres: Th ese comp rise Ch aring Cross Road, Tottenh am Court Road, H igh H olborn, Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) and H atton G arden. Th e V isitor S urv ey broadly reflects many concep tions as to th e nature and function of th ese centres. Th us Ch aring Cross Road h as a large p rop ortion of v isitors from U K outside London and from ov erseas (41%) and low ex p enditure p er h ead for both conv enience and comp arison goods. Tottenh am Court Road and H atton G arden h av e h igh lev els of (sp ecialist) comp arison ex p enditure, with th e former being th e centre h av ing th e largest p rop ortion (19%) of v isitors from outside th e U K . H igh H olborn is v ery much a conv enience centre sup p orted largely by local workers rath er th an residents or v isitors. Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) h as th e second h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors from outside London (40%), almost certainly reflecting its location as p art of th e div erse and v ibrant group of attractions located at Cov ent G arden. 4.67 F our of th e Central London Area centres surv eyed h av e a h igh degree of reliance on journeys by Tube. Th e ex cep tion is H atton G arden. Th is is only p artially accountable by reference to th e geograp h y of th e U nderground system and is almost certainly more a reflection of significant walk-in trade by office workers from nearby surrounding p remises. 4.68 Camden Town: Th e surv ey sh ows Camden Town is a centre th at attracts p rop ortionately far more v isitors from elsewh ere in th e U K and from abroad th an any oth er surv eyed centre in Camden or Islington. Camden Town also h as a fairly ev en sp lit, by v isitor numbers, between conv enience and comp arison ex p enditure and a larger p rop ortion (28%) of v isitors trav elling by Tube th an any oth er Camden or Islington centre in th e surv ey. 4.69 Th e centre‘s strength deriv es from comp arison and A3 ex p enditure and leisure activ ities. Of th e eigh t centres included in th e V isitor S urv ey, Camden Town is p rop ortionately th e most p op ular for indoor leisure activ ities and th e second most p op ular for meeting in cafes, bars and restaurants. Of th e nine surv eyed locations, Camden h ad th e fewest resp ondents wh o considered it a p leasant p lace to sh op . 4.70 H amp stead: Th e V isitor S urv ey p laces H amp stead as a p articularly distinctiv e centre. It h as p rop ortionately more v isitors from oth er London Borough s th an any oth er centre. It h as a clear balance between conv enience and comp arison goods sh op p ing by v isitor numbers. Only a v ery small p rop ortion of v isitors consider th at comp arison needs and café /bars/restaurant p rov ision in th is centre are p oorly or v ery p oorly catered for œ 8% and 4% resp ectiv ely. 4.71 H amp stead is th e centre th at h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors trav elling by car (33%). Th is comp arativ ely h igh p rop ortion togeth er with th e current difficulties in accessing th e centre and also in finding a car p arking sp ace (as identified in 2.16),

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suggests th at it will be difficult to generate significant modal sh ift for H amp stead sh op p ers. 4.72 Islington centres: Th ese comp rise th e Angel and N ags H ead. In both cases, a h igh p rop ortion of v isitors liv e with in th e local borough œ some 41% and 75% resp ectiv ely. Th e p rop ortion for Angel is q uite similar to th ose for Camden Town and H amp stead (wh ich av erage 39%). Th us N ag‘s H ead p resents q uite a different p rofile and is strongly dep endent on trav el by bus, with 44% of v isitors using th is means of transp ort. 4.73 Both th e Islington centres are strong in terms of conv enience draw: ° An av erage of 46% of v isitors h ad or intended to buy conv enience goods œ a significantly h igh er p rop ortion th an any oth er centre surv eyed; ° Actual or intended conv enience sp end p er h ead is h igh er th an any oth er centre with th e ex cep tion of H atton G arden; ° Both centres h av e v ery h igh p rop ortions of th eir trade based on local ”close-to- h ome‘ journeys. 4.74 On th e oth er h and, actual or estimated comp arison goods sp end p er h ead in th e two Islington centres was lower th an any oth er centre surv eyed. On aggregate, th is sp end was only h alf of th at for th e two Camden centres surv eyed.

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5 TH E N EED F OR ADDITION AL RETAIL F LOORS PACE Background 5.1 In th is section we set out our assessment of th e need for additional retail floorsp ace in th e London Borough of Camden centres and oth er centres in th e S tudy Area ov er th e p eriod up to 202711. S ep arate assessments are made for comp arison and conv enience goods sh op p ing. Th e assessments are based on th e ch anges in ex p enditure p otential brough t about by p op ulation ch ange and real growth in p er cap ita sp ending lev els. 5.2 We h av e emp loyed a step -by-step ap p roach to th e assessment in accordance with standard p ractice, and in a manner consistent with th e ap p roach recommended by th e G LA12. Th e ap p roach is as follows: ° S tep 1: Define th e S tudy Area, and to allow for more sensitiv e analysis subdiv ide th is area into a series of z ones th at reflect as far as p ossible th e ex isting centre distribution (th is step is discussed in S ection 2 of th is rep ort); ° S tep 2: Calculate p op ulation estimates for each S tudy Area z one for th e base year (2007) and for th e forecast years (2012, 2017 and 2022 and 2027) using p op ulation p rojections p rov ided by London Borough of Camden. 5.3 S tep s 1 and 2 are common for both comp arison and conv enience goods sh op p ing. Th e rest of th e data and modelling (S tep s 3 to 9) rely on sep arate datasets for th e two forms of sh op p ing, and are th erefore rep orted sep arately. ° S tep 3: Obtain p er cap ita comp arison and conv enience goods ex p enditure estimates for each S tudy Area z one for th e base and forecast years (with all monetary v alues maintained at constant p rices); ° S tep 4: Calculate th e total av ailable ex p enditure with in each of th e S tudy Area z ones by ap p lying th e p op ulation data to p er cap ita ex p enditure, and also th e growth in ex p enditure ov er th e p eriod 2007 to 2027; ° S tep 5: Calculate th e q uantum of ex p enditure av ailable in th e S tudy Area for non- bulky comp arison goods retailing by making a deduction from th e total av ailable ex p enditure figures to account for th e ex p enditure cap tured by out-of-centre retail wareh ousing; ° S tep 6: Calculate th e base year turnov er and total market sh are deriv ed from th e S tudy Area of each of th e centres included in th e assessment by ap p lying th e market sh ares for each z one (from th e 2004 study) to th e p ool of av ailable ex p enditure; ° S tep 7: Calculate th e base year turnov er and total market sh are deriv ed from th e S tudy Area of each of th e centres included in th e assessment by ap p lying th e market sh ares for each z one (from th e 2004 study) to th e p ool of ex p enditure av ailable from both th e resident p op ulation and from v isitors (inflow); ° S tep 8: M ake a deduction for claims on th e ex p enditure growth (floorsp ace efficiency, e-tailing and committed new floorsp ace); and finally ° S tep 9: Conv ert th e resulting residual ex p enditure (th at is th e growth in ex p enditure, less th e claims deduction), based on market sh ares set out in th e 2004 study, to a floorsp ace req uirement in th e forecast years.

11 Th e S tudy p rov ides forecasts for 2012, 2017, 2022 and 2027. Wh ilst we consider th at th e forecasts to 2017 are robust, a degree of caution needs to be ex ercised with th e 2022 and 2027 forecasts, because M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting do not p rov ide ex p enditure growth estimates beyond 2016. 12 G LA ”A London Rev iew of Retail N eed M eth odologies‘, S DS Tech nical Rep ort 15, August 2002

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5.4 Below we outline th e work and calculations undertaken at each step . S tep s 1 and 2 are common to both th e comp arison goods and th e conv enience goods assessments, but following th ese step s we th en firstly outline th e comp arison goods assessment before dealing with th at for conv enience goods. All th e tables (Tables 3.1 to 3.11 and 4.1 to 4.10) referred to in th e tex t, and th at set out th e floorsp ace req uirement calculations, are rep roduced in Ap p endices 3 and 4. 5.5 We conclude by identify and seeking to ex p lain p ossible reasons for any discrep ancies between Roger Tym & Partners‘ analysis and th e conclusions of th e work undertaken by Ex p erian for G LA.

N eed Assessment Th e Basic S tudy Area Data S tep 1: S tudy Area Definition 5.6 Th e S tudy Area was defined at th e outset of th e study to set th e geograp h ical p arameters of th e h ouseh old sh op p ing p atterns surv ey, and its ex tent and indeed th e z onal subdiv ision is discussed fully in section 3 p aragrap h s 3.3 to 3.5 of th is rep ort and is illustrated by th e map in section 1. Th e eigh t S tudy Area z ones are based on ward- lev el geograp h y13. S tep 2: S tudy Area Pop ulation 5.7 London Borough of Camden h as p rov ided p op ulation p rojections for each of th e S tudy Area z ones. Th e p rojections are p rov ided on an annual basis for th e p eriod 2006 to 2031. 5.8 In th e case of th ose z ones falling with in London Borough of Camden, th e p rojections are based on aggregated ward data. Th e p rojections are G LA 2006 Round-based (RLP Low - S RP), constrained to G LA 2006 Round-based (RLP H igh ). Work h as been done for London Borough of Camden to up date th e p rojections in terms of th e birth s p rojection, retention of 0 year olds and distribution of 0-4 in th e base year (2001). F urth ermore, Camden p rov ided an up to date forecast of h ousing ch ange wh ich was built into an RLP Low p rojection, designated RLP Low (S RP). After taking adv ice from G LA Demograp h y Team, London Borough of Camden officers h av e conv erted RLP Low (S RP) for Camden to match with RLP H igh , and th ese are th e figures p resented h ere. 5.9 Ward p rojections for p artnering borough s (Brent, Islington and Westminster) are G LA 2006 Round-based (RLP H igh ). Th ese are G LA's interp retation of p op ulation distribution according to demograp h ic determinants and G LA's v iew of forecasted h ousing ch ange from th e London Dev elop ment Database (LDD) and th e London H ousing Cap acity S tudy (LH CS ) 2004. Th ese p rojections are rep roduced in th e ap p endices œ for comp arison goods in Ap p endix 3, Table 3.1 and for conv enience goods in Ap p endix 4, Table 4.1.

Comp arison G oods N eed 5.10 We now mov e on to consider th e need for additional comp arison goods floorsp ace.

13 Camden (Bloomsbury, H olborn and Cov ent G arden, K ing's Cross, Camden Town with Primrose H ill, Cantelowes, H av erstock, K entish Town, Regent's Park C, S t Pancras and S omers Town, Belsiz e, F ortune G reen, F rognal and F itz joh ns, K ilburn C, S wiss Cottage, West H amp stead, G osp el Oak, H amp stead Town, H igh gate); Brent (Brondesbury Park, K ilburn B, M ap esbury, Q ueens Park); Westminster: (Abbey Road, M aida V ale, Regent's Park W); Islington (F insbury Park, H igh bury East, H igh bury West, H illrise, H olloway, J unction, M ildmay, S t G eorge's, Tollington, Barnsbury, Bunh ill, Caledonian, Canonbury, Clerkenwell, S t M ary's, S t Peter's)

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S tep 3: Per Cap ita Comp arison G oods Ex p enditure Estimates 5.11 We h av e obtained p er cap ita comp arison goods ex p enditure estimates for each of th e S tudy Area z ones from M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting togeth er with p ercentage growth figures for th e forecast years. Th e data obtained are 2004 ex p enditure estimates at 2004 p rices, reflecting th e av ailability of data sets used by M ap Info to construct th e estimates. Th ey are also consistent with th e demograp h ic information p rov ided by th e M ap Info 2004 Pop ulation U p dates. (M ap Info‘s Ex p enditure p er h ead estimates use p op ulation and h ouseh old counts from th eir 2004 Pop ulation U p dates.) 5.12 Th e data p rov ides total annual p er cap ita comp arison goods ex p enditure estimates, wh ich includes a p rop ortion of ex p enditure th at is sp ent by sp ecial forms of trading (S F Ts) such as mail order, catalogue and Internet sales wh ich is not av ailable for conv entional store-based (bricks and mortar) retailing, and th erefore needs to be subtracted from th e p ool of ex p enditure av ailable for bricks and mortar retailing. 5.13 Based on Ex p erian‘s Retail Planner Briefing N ote 2.3D (December 2005), we h av e th erefore made a deduction of 5.7% in 2004, 8.6% in 2007 and 12.3% in 2012. Ex p erian env isages th at th e rate of S F T growth will slow in th e p ost-2011 p eriod, with non-store sales in th e comp arison sector p lateauing at around 12.4% in 2014. We h av e th erefore made deductions of 12.4% for 2017, 2022 and 2027. 5.14 Th us th e first row of Table 3.2 giv es th e M ap Info 2004 p er cap ita ex p enditure figures for each of th e S tudy Area z ones net of th e p rop ortion sp ent v ia S F T. Th e figures sh ow q uite significant v ariations across th e S tudy Area with th e h igh est ex p enditure p er h ead in Z one 6 closely followed by Z ones 3 and 4, with th e lowest in Z ones 1, 2 and 5. 5.15 Th e 2004 p er cap ita ex p enditure estimates are p rojected forward to th e base year (2007) and to th e forecast years 2012, 2017 and 2022 and 2027 based up on th e M ap Info ex p enditure growth p rojection of 4.4% p er annum for 2005 to 2016 and our own assump tion th at th is trend will continue to 202714. We also make a deduction for S p ecial F orms of Trading (S F T), based on Ex p erian‘s Retail Planner Briefing N ote 2.3D (December 2005), of 5.7% in 2004, 8.6% in 2007 and 12.3% in 2012. Ex p erian env isages th at th e rate of S F T growth will slow in th e p ost-2011 p eriod, with non-store sales in th e comp arison sector p lateauing at around 12.4% in 2014. We h av e th erefore made deductions of 12.4% for 2017, 2022 and 2027. Th e resultant p er cap ita ex p enditure figures in th e base and forecast years are set out in Table 3.2 in th e rows below th e 2004 data. S tep 4: Total Ex p enditure Estimates 5.16 In S tep 4 we calculate th e total av ailable comp arison ex p enditure in each z one by ap p lying th e p op ulation forecasts (set out in Table 3.1) to th e p er cap ita ex p enditure figures (set out in Table 3.2). Th e results are p resented in Table 3.3, wh ich identifies th e p ool of ex p enditure generated in each S tudy Area z one (and th e total for th e wh ole S tudy Area) ov er th e time h oriz on, and also th e ex p enditure growth at each forecast year. 5.17 Table 3.3 sh ows th at th e S tudy Area as a wh ole currently generates nearly £2 billion of comp arison goods ex p enditure, wh ich is forecast to grow by 13% to ov er £2.2 billion in 2012, rising to ap p rox imately £2.54 billion in 2017, to £2.9 billion in 2022 and to £3.3 billion in 2027. Ov er th e twenty year p eriod to 2027 comp arison goods ex p enditure is forecast to grow by nearly £1.3 billion. S tep 5: Out-of-Centre Retail Wareh ouse Ex p enditure 5.18 At Table 3.4 we sep arate out th e comp arison goods ex p enditure th at is currently cap tured by out-of-centre retail wareh ousing from th e ex p enditure av ailable for all

14 Th e growth p rojections for 2017 onward must be treated with caution.

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oth er forms of retailing. We do th is to accord with current G ov ernment p olicy, wh ich seeks to direct all retail dev elop ment into town centres, and adop t a goods-based rath er th an a format driv en ap p roach to th e need for additional retail p rov ision15. Our ap p roach is to identify th e q uantum of comp arison goods ex p enditure cap tured by out- of-centre retail wareh ousing ex p enditure in th e base year, and in an acknowledgment th at th e turnov er of th e ex isting p rov ision will not stand still, but will continue to grow, we allow for growth at 1.8% p er annum16, wh ich is th e same rate we allow for ex isting floorsp ace with in identified centres. 5.19 Our estimate is th at in th e base year out-of-centre retail wareh ousing cap tures 13.45% of th e total comp arison goods ex p enditure across all z ones. Th is figure is deriv ed from Ex p erian's retail categories data th at indicates th at across th e S tudy Area 26.9% of ex p enditure is sp ent on bulky goods. We estimate th at h alf of th is p rop ortion (13.45%) is sp ent in th e ex isting centres in dep artment stores and oth er large stores with out-of centre retail wareh ousing cap turing th e oth er h alf. 5.20 Th us Table 3.4 indicates th at in th e base year th e S tudy Area as a wh ole p rov ides £1.7 billion of ex p enditure av ailable for all forms of comp arison retailing ex cep t out-of-centre retail wareh ousing, and th is figure rises to nearly £2.0 billion in 2012, £2.2 billion in 2017, £2.5 billion in 2022 and £2.9 billion in 2027. S tep 6: Turnov er of Ex isting Centres from with in th e S tudy Area 5.21 H av ing calculated th e av ailable sp end and growth in ex p enditure on comp arison goods generated from with in th e S tudy Area, th e nex t step is to calculate th e turnov er of th e ex isting centres generated from with in th e S tudy Area by ap p lying th e market sh are (by v isit) estimates17 to th e p ool of av ailable ex p enditure with in each z one. Th e ex ercise also allows us to calculate th e total S tudy Area market sh are for each of th e centres. 5.22 Th e results are set out at Table 3.6, wh ich sh ows th e turnov er deriv ed from each z one with in th e S tudy Area by each centre in London Borough of Camden, th e two London Borough of Islington centres and oth er significant centres beyond th e S tudy Area. Th e sp ending p atterns are deriv ed from ap p lying th e results of th e h ouseh old surv ey (set out at Table 3.5) to th e av ailable ex p enditure in each of th e z ones set out in Table 3.4. Tables 3.5 and 3.6 demonstrate th e dominance of th e West End as a comp arison goods sh op p ing location drawing nearly £700 million worth of ex p enditure from th e S tudy Area, a 40% market sh are across th e wh ole of th e S tudy Area. Th e centre with th e nex t h igh est draws is Brent Cross at £209 million, a 12% market sh are. Of th e centres located with in th e S tudy Area, Angel/U p p er S treet deriv es th e h igh est turnov er from th e study area at £128.1 million (a 7.4% market sh are), followed by N ag‘s H ead/H olloway Road at £110.4 million (a 6.4% market sh are). 5.23 Of th e centres in London Borough of Camden, Camden Town deriv es a turnov er of £89.3 million (a 5.2% market sh are), followed by S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road at £58.2 million (a 3.4% market sh are), K ilburn at £53.7 million (a 3.1% market sh are), H amp stead at £51.3 million (a 3.0% market sh are) and K entish Town at £31.0 million

15 S ee p aragrap h 3.10, Planning Policy S tatement 6 (2005) 16 Paragrap h 8.2 of Ex p erian Retail Planner Briefing N ote 4.0 refers to recent research for th e BCS C wh ich h as rev isited th e estimates and p rojections in Retail Planner Briefing N ote 2.2 (Ap ril 2005) in some detail and, in p articular, h as giv en more attention to th e p ossible imp act of p ast ch anges in net-to-gross ratios and to th e imp act of th e sale of comp arison goods in conv enience stores on th e estimates. It used central p rojections of 2.3% for comp arison goods, wh ich falls with in th e range p rev iously recommended (2.0% and 2.5%). H owev er, alth ough th is lev el of sales density growth h as occurred in th e p ast, we consider th is lev el is unlikely to continue in th e study area ov er th e study timeframe. Th is is because such h igh lev els of sales density growth occur due to unmet consumer ex p enditure growth . As th ere are new dev elop ments th at will op en in and outside th e study area, notably K ing‘s Cross, S tratford City and Wh ite City, we consider th at th e sales density growth is unlikely to reach th ese lev els. We h av e th erefore assumed th at th e comp arison floorsp ace in th e study area will imp rov e by 1.8% p er annum, lower th an th e lev el forecast by Ex p erian. 17 M arket sh are data obtained from th e Camden H ouseh old S urv ey (S ep tember/October 2003)

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(a 1.8% market sh are). West H amp stead deriv es only £6.5 million, a 0.4% market sh are. 5.24 Collectiv ely th e S tudy Area centres retains a th ird of all S tudy Area ex p enditure, and London Borough of Camden centres retain 17.7%. Th e London Borough of Camden centres retain 29.6% of th e borough ‘s ex p enditure (Z ones 1 to 4), reflecting th e p rox imity of th e West End as an internationally renowned sh op p ing attraction. S tep 7: Base Y ear Total Turnov er and F loorsp ace S ales Densities of Ex isting Centres 5.25 S tep 6 abov e p rov ides turnov er and market sh are data for th e centres generated from with in th e S tudy Area, but naturally each centre will deriv e some turnov er from beyond th e S tudy Area, wh ich we term ”inflow turnov er‘. Due to th e attraction of centres such as Camden Town for v isitors from beyond London and abroad we h av e div ided th e inflow between th at deriv ed from elsewh ere in London, wh ich we term ”oth er London inflow‘, and th at from beyond London, wh ich we term ”non-London/tourist inflow‘. We h av e based our assessment on th e p rop ortion of inflow turnov er on a combination of th e findings of th e V isitor S urv ey, oth er consultants‘ estimates and our p rofessional judgement. Our estimates of inflow turnov er, th e resultant total turnov er and th e resultant sales densities for each of th e centres included in th e assessment, are set out in Table 3.7. 5.26 Th e table indicates th at Camden Town attracts h alf its comp arison goods turnov er (£89.3 million) from beyond th e S tudy Area. Th is reflects th e sp ecialist fash ion wear content of much of Camden Town‘s retail offer, and th e h igh numbers of U K and foreign tourists th at are attracted to v isit by th e centre‘s rep utation. Camden Town is th e only one of th e six London Borough of Camden town centres wh ere we consider tourist ex p enditure accounts for a v ery significant p rop ortion of centre turnov er. K ilburn also generates ap p rox imately a th ird from beyond th e S tudy Area, but th is is almost entirely due to th e location of th e centre towards th e p erip h ery of th e area: th e same reasoning ap p lies to a number of th e oth er centres. Th e figures demonstrate th at v ery few of th e centres are considered to attract significant ex p enditure from beyond London. Ap art from Camden Town, th e centres located with in S tudy Area deriv e th e v ast majority of th eir turnov er from th e S tudy Area. 5.27 Th e table indicates th at th e London Borough of Camden centres collectiv ely generate turnov er of around £464.3 million. Camden Town generates th e most, with a sales density of £5,555/sq m. K ilburn and S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road each generate comp arison goods turnov er of around £83 million, with sales densities of £4,911 and £6,649. H amp stead, as indicated by its h igh sales density, trades v ery well, wh ich is unsurp rising giv en th e large number of fash ion boutiq ues in th e centre th at retail comp arativ ely h igh v alue goods. West H amp stead h as th e lowest turnov er and sales density of all th e London Borough of Camden centres, reflecting th e limited comp arison goods offer in th e centre. 5.28 Turning to th e London Borough of Islington centres, Angel/U p p er S treet and N ag‘s H ead/H olloway Road ach iev e turnov ers of £150.6 million and £122.7 million resp ectiv ely. Th e turnov ers of both centres are lower th an th at of Camden Town, but significantly better th an London Borough of Camden‘s oth er major centres K ilburn and S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road. Th e sales densities of around £6,650/sq m may reflect th e better range and q uality of th e p rov ision in Angel and th e p op ularity of N ags H ead with its local and loyal sh op p ing p ublic. 5.29 Th e difference in scale between th e local centres and both th e West End and Brent Cross is ev ident from th e table. Our analysis suggests th at th e West End ach iev es a turnov er of £6,944 million, h igh er th an p rojected in th e London Town Centre Assessment18 but nev erth eless a figure we th ink reasonable, giv en th at it rep resents a

18 Table 24 of th e London Town Centre Assessment S tage 1 - Comp arison G oods F loorsp ace N eed (S ep tember 2004) p rojects a turnov er for th e West End of £5,715 million in 2006 and £7,051 million in 2011.

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sales density of £5,489/sq m, with in th e range we would ex p ect for an International Centre. 5.30 Th e turnov er of Brent Cross is estimated to be ap p rox imately one tenth th at of th e West End‘s, and nearly one and h alf times h igh er th an all th e London Borough of Camden centres combined, wh ich reflects th e p op ularity of th is p urp ose built centre, as noted in our h ouseh old surv ey. Brent Cross h as th e h igh est sales density of all th e centres assessed at around £9,500/sq m. S tep 8: Deduction for ex isting floorsp ace commitments and likely take up of floorsp ace in th e centres 5.31 Th e nex t step in th e assessment is to make deductions for (ii) th e likely take-up of currently v acant floorsp ace in th e centres and (ii) any ex isting floorsp ace commitments, th at is ex tant p ermissions (both th ose unimp lemented and th ose under- construction) with in th e S tudy Area th at will draw on th e p ool of ex p enditure growth in th e forecast years. Th e deductions made are set out in Table 3.8. 5.32 In th is case th ere is no need to factor in imp rov ements in occup ancy rates as v acancy rates with in th e centres, esp ecially th e p rimary frontages, are ex tremely low av eraging around 1%. Th ere are, h owev er, a number of committed sch emes for wh ich an allowance needs to be made: K ing‘s Cross Central, S t Pancras International19, Wh ite City, S tratford City and th e LDA sch eme at Wembley. Th e committed Wembley Q uintain sch eme and th e Wembley Central S q uare sch eme Wembley Town Centre are sch eme are not ex p ected to h av e a material draw on th e p ool of ex p enditure growth . We h av e ex cluded th e p rop osed additional floorsp ace at Brent Cross at th is stage as it is not yet a commitment, th ough as an ap p lication was submitted in M arch 2008 we run an alternativ e scenario including th e Brent Cross ex tension later in our q uantitativ e analysis (see below). 5.33 F or th e K ing‘s Cross sch eme, London Borough of Camden officers h av e adv ised th at up to 45,925 sq m net additional A use floorsp ace h as been p ermitted. Th ere are no conditions or legal agreements restricting th e amount of A1 floorsp ace, th ough a legal agreement restricts th e combined additional A1/A2 floorsp ace to 32,500 sq m. Th e retail statement submitted in sup p ort of th e K ing's Cross ap p lication indicates at Tables 7.1 and 7.2 th at th e additional comp arison goods floorsp ace is ex p ected to total between 21,950 sq m gross (15,055 sq m net) and 24,800 sq m gross (17,010 sq m net). We h av e th erefore assumed a mid-p oint of 23,375 sq m gross (16,033 sq m net) A1 floorsp ace. Th e retail statement furth er assumes th at 30% of th e floorsp ace would be on line by 2011, 65% by 2016 and th e remainder by 2021, an ap p roach we h av e adop ted. 5.34 Th e retail statement also assumes a sales density at Table 7.1 of £6,500/sq m at 2003 p rices. We h av e rebased th is sales density to 2004 p rices based on p rice indices set out at Table 3 of M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting Information Brief 06/1. We estimate th at 60% of turnov er will be drawn from th e study area in 2012, 55% in 2017 and 50% in 2002, reflecting th e wider catch ment of K ing's Cross as th e amount of floorsp ace increases. We assume a growth in sales efficiency of 1.8%/annum for each p h ase at 2012, 2017 and 2022 to reflect th e fact th at th e new floorsp ace will increase its turnov er following comp letion. 5.35 F or S t Pancras International, th e retail statement submitted in sup p ort of th e K ing's Cross ap p lication indicates th at 6,550 sq m gross (4,493 sq m) comp arison floorsp ace is being p rov ided at S t Pancras International. Th e retail assessment assumes th at th is floorsp ace will trade at £6,500/sq m at 2003 p rices. We h av e rebased th is sales

Assuming constant growth in th is p eriod, th is imp lies a turnov er of £5,982.2 million in 2007. Th e p rice base is not stated, but we assume th at all data in Table 24 is at 2001 p rices, in common with th e rest of th e document. If th e turnov er data is rebased to 2004 p rices, th is imp lies a turnov er of £6,368.1 million in 2007. 19 Th e dev elop ment at S t Pancras International op ened in N ov ember 2007, but is not yet fully occup ied

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density to 2004 p rices based on p rice indices set out at Table 3 of M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting Information Brief 06/1. We estimate th at 15% of turnov er will be drawn from th e study area and assume a growth in sales efficiency of 1.8%/annum to reflect th e fact th at th e new floorsp ace will increase its turnov er following comp letion 5.36 F or Wh ite City, S tratford City and th e LDA sch eme at Wembley our allowances for trade draw are based on th e retail statements submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lications. In th e case of th e Wembley Q uintain sch eme th e retail statement submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lication indicates th at th ere will be no material draw from ex isting centres as th e new retail floorsp ace will be sustained by th e wider dev elop ment. In th e case of th e Wembley Central S q uare we are adv ised th at no retail statement was submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lication as th e amount of retail floorsp ace was not considered to be materially significant, and th at it would h av e a negligible imp act on nearby centres. 5.37 Oth er major mix ed use sch emes are also beginning to come forward, most notably at Euston and V ictoria stations. In th e case of Euston, British Land was selected in Ap ril 2007 as N etwork Rail‘s p referred dev elop ment p artner for th e redev elop ment of th e station. We understood th at British Land are in th e p rocess of drawing up a masterp lan, but at th is stage th ere is no indication of th e amount of retail floorsp ace likely to be included. Conseq uently we h av e not included additional floorsp ace at Euston in our assessment. 5.38 In th e case of V ictoria, an ap p lication was submitted in Ap ril 2007 by Land S ecurities for redev elop ment of th e transp ort interch ange. Th is includes up to 41,500 sq m gross non-food retail floorsp ace, th ough in fact a p rop ortion is likely to be giv en ov er to A2, A3, A4 and A5 uses. A retail assessment submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lication indicates th at, in terms of comp arison goods, th e p rop osal is likely to draw up on ex p enditure growth env isaged for th e West End area, wh ich it defines as stretch ing from Paddington in th e north west, to G reen Park in th e south and H olborn and th e S trand in th e east. G iv en th at th e majority of th e West End floorsp ace lies outside th e study area we h av e made no allowance for th e likely draw of th e V ictoria station dev elop ment. S tep 9: Conv ert th e resulting residual ex p enditure to a floorsp ace req uirement 5.39 Th e final step , S tep 9 draws togeth er all of th e abov e calculations. Th e workings for S tep 9 are p resented in Table 3.9. Th e first h alf of th e table deals with th e ex p enditure retention from th e S tudy Area and with inflow ex p enditure from elsewh ere, concluding with th e total av ailable ex p enditure figures in th e base and forecast years. Th e bottom h alf of th e table deals with th e necessary deductions from th e av ailable ex p enditure, and th e conv ersion of th e residual ex p enditure (th at is th e growth in ex p enditure, less th e claims deduction) into a floorsp ace req uirement by ap p lying an assumed sales density for future new comp arison goods floorsp ace. 5.40 We build into th e assessment 1.8%/annum growth in sales density to reflect th e efficiency imp rov ements ex isting traders make, to allow for continued p rofitability and inv estment in th e building fabric, staff and p roduct.20 5.41 Dealing firstly with th e calculations leading to th e total av ailable ex p enditure figures, we h av e ap p lied th e current market sh are for all th e centres currently trading with in th e S tudy Area, wh ich is ap p rox imately a one th ird sh are. Th us th e floorsp ace req uirement calculations include th ose for th e centres in th e centres with in th e London Borough s of Islington and Brent th at fall with in th e S tudy Area as well as th ose falling with in London Borough of Camden. Th e inflow ex p enditure from beyond th e S tudy Area incorp orates growth of 4.4%/annum in th e forecast years in accordance with M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting Information Brief 06/2. Th us th e total av ailable ex p enditure in th e base year is £744 million, growing to £868 million in 2012, around £1,010 million in 2017, 1,187 million in 2022 and £1,386 million in 2027.

20 S ee footnote 16

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5.42 We th en make a deduction for commitments in each of th e forecast years (as set out in Table 3.8). In accordance with standard p ractice we h av e made th e assump tion th at as of th e base year ex p enditure and floorsp ace is in eq uilibrium, i.e. th e residual ex p enditure figure is £0.0 million. 5.43 In conv erting th e residual ex p enditure to a floorsp ace req uirement, we h av e adop ted a sales density of £6,500/sq m in 2007. We make an allowance for growth in th e sales density of 1.8%/annum, in accordance with our ap p roach to making an allowance for growth in th e forecast years of th e ex isting floorsp ace. Th us we estimate th at in 2012 th ere will be a req uirement for 3,534 sq m comp arison floorsp ace, for 9,041 sq m in 2017, for 16,936 sq m in 2022 and 26,531 sq m in 2027. Alternativ e S cenario Including Brent Cross Ex tension 5.44 An ap p lication for new retail dev elop ment at Brent Cross was submitted in M arch 2008 and includes a substantial amount of additional comp arison goods floorsp ace. Drawing on th e estimated turnov er of th e new floorsp ace set out in th e retail assessment submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lication, we estimate th at 10% of th e turnov er of th is dev elop ment would come from th e S tudy Area‘s aggregate turnov er. Our analysis of th e Brent Cross ex tension‘s likely trade draw is p resented at Table 3.10. 5.45 At Table 3.11 we rerun S tep 9 wh ere we conv ert th e residual ex p enditure to a floorsp ace req uirement. We conclude th at, if th e Brent Cross ex tension was built out by 2017, th ere would be a req uirement in th e S tudy Area for 3,354 sq m additional comp arison floorsp ace, rising to 4,944 sq m in 2017, 12,850 sq m in 2022, and 22,360 sq m in 2027. Comp arison with Projections by Ex p erian for G LA 5.46 Th e Ex p erian work for G LA (October 2004) runs a number of scenarios identifying a req uirement for London Borough of Camden of between 4,200 sq m and 21,000 sq m, albeit ov er a sligh tly different p eriod of 2001 to 2016. Th e outp uts of our more fine- grained analysis are consistent with th e more ”broad brush ‘ analysis undertaken for G LA.

Conv enience G oods 5.47 Our ap p roach to th e assessment of th e conv enience goods floorsp ace req uirement is essentially th e same as th at used for th e assessment of th e comp arison goods floorsp ace req uirement and so in th e interests of brev ity and av oiding any unnecessary meth odological rep etition we restrict our rep orting wh erev er p ossible to th e findings. S tep 3: Per Cap ita Comp arison G oods Ex p enditure Estimates 5.48 Table 4.2 sets out th e p er cap ita ex p enditure figures sourced from M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting togeth er with p ercentage growth figures for th e forecast years. Th e data obtained are 2004 ex p enditure estimates at 2004 p rices, reflecting th e av ailability of data sets used by M ap Info to construct th e estimates. Th e 2004 p er cap ita ex p enditure estimates are p rojected forward to th e base year (2007) and to th e forecast years 2012, 2017 and 2022 and 2027 based up on th e M ap Info‘s ex p enditure growth p rojection of 0.9% p er annum for 2005 to 2016 and our own assump tion th at th is trend will continue to 2027. 5.49 Th e data p rov ide total annual p er cap ita comp arison goods ex p enditure estimates, wh ich includes a p rop ortion of ex p enditure th at is sp ent by sp ecial forms of trading (S F Ts) such as mail order, catalogue and Internet sales wh ich is not av ailable for conv entional store-based (bricks and mortar) retailing, and th erefore needs to be subtracted from th e p ool of ex p enditure av ailable for bricks and mortar retailing. We th erefore make a deduction for S p ecial F orms of Trading (S F T) of 1.25% for 2004, 2.15% for 2007, 3.2% for 2012, 3.2% for 2017, 3.2% for 2022, 3.2% for 3.2% for 2027. Th is is based on Ex p erian‘s Retail Planner Briefing N ote 2.3D (December 2005), with

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each of th e Ex p erian estimates h alv ed to reflect th e dominance of sh elf-p icking in conv enience goods h ome deliv ery, rath er th an from a h ub outside th e catch ment as is common with comp arison goods. S tep 4: Total Ex p enditure Estimates 5.50 Th e total av ailable conv enience goods ex p enditure in th e S tudy Area is calculated by ap p lying th e p op ulation p rojections to th e p er cap ita ex p enditure figures. Th e resulting total ex p enditure estimates for th e S tudy Area, for th e base and forecast years are set out in Table 4.3. 5.51 Table 4.3 indicates th at in th e base year th ere is ap p rox imately £1,034 million of conv enience goods ex p enditure generated from with in th e S tudy Area. Th e av ailable ex p enditure grows by £57 million in th e fiv e years to 2012, by a furth er £56 million by 2017, by £71 million to 2022 and by £65 million to 2027. 5.52 Th e p rojected ex p enditure growth for conv enience goods is of a much lower order th an th at for comp arison goods. Th e main reason for th is is because growth in conv enience goods ex p enditure is much lower th an for comp arison goods simp ly because as a p op ulation our sp ending on food and oth er conv enience goods h as lev elled out. Th e main sup ermarket op erators‘ resp onse to th is h as been to increase th e lev el of p re- p rep ared food and meals in an attemp t to increase turnov er and driv e up market sh are. N ev erth eless for th e foreseeable future growth in th is sector of th e market is likely to remain relativ ely low. S tep 5: Out-of-Centre Retail Wareh ouse Ex p enditure 5.53 S tep 5 does not ap p ly to conv enience goods retailing. S tep 6: Turnov er of Ex isting Centres from with in th e S tudy Area 5.54 In S tep 6 we calculate th e turnov er of th e ex isting centres generated from with in th e S tudy Area by ap p lying th e market sh are (by v isit) estimates21 (set out in Table 4.4) to th e p ool of av ailable ex p enditure with in each z one. Th e h ouseh old surv ey obtained market sh ares for all conv enience goods outlets, th at is both th e large foodstores, th e smaller format conv enience p rov ision and local conv enience stores. Th e ex ercise also allows us to calculate th e total S tudy Area market sh are (by turnov er) for each of th e centres, and th e results are set out in Table 4.5. 5.55 Table 4.5 demonstrates th at London Borough of Camden stores deriv e £531 million from th e S tudy Area, wh ich eq uates to a market sh are of ov er 51%. Th e data indicates th at th e London Borough of Camden stores retain a market sh are from th e borough (Z ones 1 to 4) of more th an 74%, a v ery h ealth y sh are considering th e q uantity and q uality of p rov ision in th e locality. S tep 7: Base Y ear Total Turnov er and F loorsp ace S ales Densities of Ex isting Centres 5.56 Conv enience goods sh op p ing p atterns are much less widely drawn th an th ose for comp arison goods, as was noted in th e h ouseh old sh op p ing p atterns surv ey. H owev er, each centre will deriv e some turnov er from beyond th e S tudy Area and in S tep 7 we account for th is and p resent th e resultant total turnov er and th e sales densities for each of th e centres included in th e assessment in Table 4.6. 5.57 Th e table indicates th at, with th e ex cep tion of London Borough of Camden's Central London Area centres, th e estimates of inflow turnov er are much lower th an for comp arison goods retailing. Indeed only K ilburn and H amp stead, located towards th e outer limits of th e S tudy Area, h av e inflow estimates greater th an 10%.

21 M arket sh are data obtained from th e Camden H ouseh old S urv ey (S ep tember/October 2003). Th e surv ey p rov ided data on indiv idual stores, wh ich for th e p urp oses of th e need assessment we h av e aggregated data to centre lev el.

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5.58 Th e centre sales densities v ary from th e h igh est for H olborn at around £21,000/sq m to £3,700/sq m at H amp stead. G enerally th e sales densities are h igh and reflect th e q uality of th e local p rov ision, th e localised sh op p ing h abits of a v ery densely p op ulated catch ment area, and th e boost to turnov er made by th e non-resident p op ulation. S tep 8: Deduction for claims on th e ex p enditure growth 5.59 We make deductions for claims on th e ex p enditure growth for years 2012, 2017 and 2022 and 2027 at Tables 4.7a, 4.7b, 4.7c and 4.7d resp ectiv ely. We make an allowance for th e imp rov ements in floorsp ace efficiency and committed new floorsp ace, but not for imp rov ed occup ancy rates for th e reasons set out abov e in reference to comp arison goods retailing. We build into th e assessment a 0.9%/annum sales density imp rov ement for th e ex isting stock to reflect th e continued efficiencies traders make to generate continued p rofitability and inv estment in th e building fabric, staff and p roduct. We also build into th e assessment th e conv enience floorsp ace commitment at K ing‘s Cross wh ich , th e retail statement submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lication notes, is th e eq uiv alent of th ree large foodstores, togeth er with th e small amount of conv enience floorsp ace p rop osed at S t Pancras International. We estimate th at new large foodstores would draw much of th eir turnov er from th e S tudy Area, but th at th e turnov er of conv enience floorsp ace at S t Pancras International22 will be largely driv en by rail trav ellers. S tep 9: Conv ert th e resulting residual ex p enditure to a floorsp ace req uirement 5.60 S tep 9 draws togeth er all of th e abov e calculations, and we set out th e calculations in Table 4.8. Th e retained ex p enditure figures are based on th e current market sh are (ap p rox imately 70% of th e total) for all th e centres with in th e S tudy Area. Th e inflow ex p enditure from beyond th e S tudy Area incorp orates growth of 0.9%/annum in th e forecast years in accordance with p rojections set out in M ap Info/Ox ford Economic F orecasting Information Brief 06/2 for 2005 to 2016 and our assump tion th at th is trend will continue to 2027. Th us th e total av ailable ex p enditure in th e base year is £832 million, growing to £877 million in 2012, £922 million in 2017, £978 million in 2022 and £1029 million in 2027. 5.61 We th en make a deduction for commitments in each of th e forecast years (as set out in Tables 4.7a, 4.7b, 4.7c and 4.7d). In accordance with standard p ractice we h av e made th e assump tion th at as of th e base year ex p enditure and floorsp ace is in eq uilibrium, i.e. th e residual ex p enditure figure is £0.0 million. 5.62 We h av e adop ted a sales density figure of £10,000/sq m in 2007, wh ich is lower th an th e sales densities currently ach iev ed in most of th e S tudy Area centres, but is a figure th at rep resents a realistic density ach iev able by th e main foodstore op erators. Th e sales density is p ermitted to grow by 0.6%/annum, reflecting adv ice at p aragrap h 8.2 of Ex p erian Retail Planner Briefing N ote 4.0 (October 2006). 5.63 After th e deductions referred to in S tep 8 abov e we find th at by 2012, th ere is a req uirement for around 901 sq m net new conv enience floorsp ace, and a need for 1,432 sq m net by 2017. By 2022 th ere is a need for 2,840 sq m net, and by 2027 a need for 4,733 sq m net. Alternativ e S cenario Including Brent Cross Ex tension 5.64 An ap p lication for new retail dev elop ment at Brent Cross was submitted in M arch 2008 and includes additional conv enience goods floorsp ace. Drawing on th e estimated turnov er of th e net additional new floorsp ace set out in th e retail assessment submitted in sup p ort of th e ap p lication, we estimate th at 2% of th e turnov er of th is dev elop ment would come from th e S tudy Area‘s aggregate turnov er. Our analysis of th e Brent Cross ex tension‘s likely trade draw is p resented at Table 4.9a, 4.9b, 4.9c and 4.9d.

22 Th e dev elop ment at S t Pancras International op ened in N ov ember 2007, but is not yet fully occup ied

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5.65 At Table 4.10 we rerun S tep 9 wh ere we conv ert th e residual ex p enditure to a floorsp ace req uirement. We conclude th at, if th e Brent Cross ex tension comes forward by 2012, th ere would be a req uirement 901 sq m net conv enience floorsp ace and 1,351 sq m net in 2017. By 2022 th ere would again be a req uirement for additional floorsp ace of 2,758 sq m, and by 2027 a req uirement for 4,649 sq m. Comp arison with Projections by Ex p erian for G LA 5.66 Th e Ex p erian work for G LA (J une 2005) runs two scenarios. Th e first, wh ich we th ink unrealistic, assumes a sales density of £5,550/sq m for sup ermarkets. A second, more realistic scenario assumes a sales density of £9,400/sq m. U nder th is more realistic scenario, and assuming p roductiv ity growth of 1.0%, Ex p erian identify a req uirement for additional conv enience floorsp ace req uirement of 3,383 sq m by 2016. Clearly th is is h igh er th an th e req uirement we h av e identified, but th e Ex p erian work is necessarily ”broad brush ‘ and th us some discrep ancy is to be ex p ected.

K ey M essages 5.67 Th e need for additional retail floorsp ace h as been assessed using a tried and tested step -by-step model. It is consistent with th e ap p roach recommended by th e G LA and is based on p op ulation, ex p enditure p er h ead, ex isting and committed floorsp ace and market sh ares as deriv ed from surv ey work, with a base year of 2007 and p rojections to 2012, 2017 and 2022 and 2027. Our work distinguish es between comp arison and conv enience ex p enditure/floorsp ace and p rojects th e need for additional floorsp ace by th ese two categories. 5.68 F or th is study, a total of eigh t surv ey z ones were used. Th ese cov er th e wh ole of London Borough of Camden as well as areas in neigh bouring borough s, wh ich include retail centres used by th e borough ‘s residents. M ost retail modelling with in conurbations is difficult and th is h as p rov ed to be th e case h ere. London Borough of Camden‘s residents h av e a wide range of ch oice of centres for comp arison and conv enience sh op p ing, as well as a good p ublic transp ortation system, wh ich allows relativ ely good access to many centres. In p arallel, th e centres with in and adjoining th e Borough h av e comp lex and ov erlap p ing catch ment areas and th e p icture is furth er comp licated by th e close p rox imity of th e West End (as an international centre), Brent Cross (as a major sub-regional centre) and by committed dev elop ments at Wh ite City and S tratford, and th e likelih ood of new floorsp ace at Brent Cross. 5.69 Th e resultant retail cap acity assessment (see Tables 3.9 and 4.8 of th e summary totals) is th us p ut forward as a realistic outcome from th e meth odology adop ted and th e surv ey results as secured. Th is assessment is based on th e ex isting market sh ares of each of th e centres in th e study and can be summarised (with floorsp ace rounded to th e nearest 500 sq m for comp arison goods and 100 sq m for conv enience goods) as follows: ° Th e net floorsp ace req uirement for comp arison goods grows from ap p rox imately 3,500 sq m in 2012, to 9,000 sq m in 2017, to 17,000 sq m in 2022 and to 26,500 sq m in 2027. ° Th e net floorsp ace req uirement for conv enience goods grows from ap p rox imately 900 sq m in 2012, to 1,400 sq m in 2017, to 2,800 sq m in 2022 and 4,700 sq m in 2027. 5.70 H owev er, if th e Brent Cross ex tension is built out by 2017: ° Th e net floorsp ace req uirement for comp arison goods grows from ap p rox imately 3,500 sq m in 2012, to 5,000 sq m in 2017, to 13,000 sq m in 2022 and to 22,500 sq m in 2027..

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° Th e net floorsp ace req uirement for conv enience goods grows from ap p rox imately 900 sq m in 2012, to 1,400 sq m in 2017, to 2,800 sq m in 2022 and 4,600 sq m in 2027.

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6 REV IEW OF EX IS TIN G CEN TRES

6.1 In th is section we draw togeth er th e key findings for each of th e centres studied by reference to th e h ealth ch eck assessments (wh ich are rep orted in full in th e Annex to th is rep ort), along with th e surv ey results (h ouseh old and v isitors‘ surv eys) p ertaining to customer v iews and beh av iour, set out in th e earlier sections of th is rep ort. 6.2 We firstly identify th e current ch aracteristics of each centre, th en p oint to th e outlook and finally identify if th ere are p rosp ects for th e centres to absorb some of th e, admittedly limited, future growth p otential identified in th e p receding section. 6.3 Th e centres th at we h av e assessed are: ° M ajor Centres (as identified by th e London Plan): Camden Town, K ilburn (also h av ing regard to th at p art of th e centre in London Borough of Brent); ° District Centres (as identified by th e London Plan): S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, K entish Town, H amp stead and West H amp stead; ° Centres/frontages/areas falling with in th e Central Actv ities Z one (as defined by th e London Plan): H atton G arden/Leath er Lane, Cov ent G arden (also h av ing regard to th at p art of Cov ent G arden with in Westminster), Tottenh am Court Road/N ew Ox ford S treet, Ch aring Cross Road, H igh H olborn. 6.4 Below, we summarise th e key findings for each centre in th e order listed abov e. M ajor Centres Camden Town Centre Ch aracteristics 6.5 In terms of A1 floorsp ace, Camden Town is th e largest centre in th e London Borough of Camden, with 55,250 sq m. A v ery low p rop ortion of th is is in serv ice use. Th e centre‘s street markets are a national and international tourist attraction. Th e scale of th ese, combined with th e attractiv e env ironment in th e market areas, p rov ides Camden Town with its uniq ue selling p oint. Th e market area is to th e north west of Camden U nderground station towards Ch alk F arm, and is renowned for an emp h asis on fash ion and cloth ing p rov ided by in large measure indep endent traders, wh ich adds to th e uniq ueness and interest and attracts a young clientele. Away from th e market area in th e south of th e centre th e h igh street area is increasingly dominated by th e multip le traders wh o are attracted by Camden Town‘s fash ionable image, and wh ose imp act continues to be to driv e up rents. Th e two areas offer q uite different sh op p ing and attract different group s of sh op p ers. 6.6 Camden Town is attractiv e to both retailers and inv estors. Rents are h igh er in Camden Town th an in both Ch aring Cross Road and H igh H olborn (th ough it is notable th at growth in rents h as been substantially lower th an in oth er centres and frontages in th e Central Activ ities Z one), and yields are attractiv e at 6%, indicating th at Camden Town is a v iable and h ealth y centre. Demand for retailer rep resentation is h igh , th ough th e p rop ortion of A1 units lying v acant (10%) suggests a p ossible mismatch between th e typ e of units av ailable and/or ex act location of retailer req uirements. 6.7 Th e V isitors‘ S urv ey demonstrates th e wide draw of Camden Town to v isitors from beyond th e local borough s, with 30% coming from elsewh ere in London and a q uarter from elsewh ere in th e U K or from abroad. Th is finding is reinforced by th e h ouseh old surv ey, wh ich found th at beyond th e Camden Town z one (Z one 2) the centre's draw with in th e S tudy Area is surp risingly weak. Returning to th e V isitors' S urv ey, v isitors to Camden Town sp end less on comp arison goods th an th e th ree LB Camden centres with in th e West End, but more th an any oth er centre (£36). V isitors also sp end more on conv enience goods (£7) th an v isitors to th e Central Area Centres (with th e ex cep tion of H atton G arden), but significantly less th an v isitors to H amp stead. A total

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of 8% of v isitors access th e centre by p riv ate car, wh ile a th ird walk-in, with th e remainder using some form of p ublic transp ort. Th e surv ey also h igh ligh ted crime and/or th e p ercep tion of crime is a significant issue for v isitors. Th e incidence of robberies in th e centre is h igh er th an elsewh ere in th e borough and in London as a wh ole, and measures such as demarcating ”safety z ones‘ around cash p oints h av e recently been introduced to address th is. 6.8 Th e h ouseh old surv ey demonstrates th e strength and attraction of th e A3 and D2 leisure p rov ision in Camden Town, wh ich draw p rimarily from th e local area (Z one 2), but also from across th e S tudy Area. Outlook 6.9 Th e trends in th e market indicators suggest th at Camden Town will continue to p erform well and draw in th e crowds of v isitors th at it p resently does as long as it continues to retain th e wealth of indep endent fash ion orientated traders th at p rov ide th e centre‘s uniq ue selling p oint and th e p rincip al attraction to sh op p ers and oth er v isitors. Th e range of sh op s and serv ices in Camden Town is th e best of all th e London Borough of Camden centres alth ough in terms of —h igh street“ multip le offer Camden Town does not match centres such as Brent Cross. 6.10 M uch of th e new retail dev elop ment in recent years h as inv olv ed consolidating a number of smaller units into larger stores for th e national ch ains, such as V irgin and G ap . Th e ex p ansion of th e multip le traders north wards towards th e market area could in th e future th reaten th e v iability of traders h oused in th e smaller units as rents are driv en h igh er because of th e sup p ly-side sh ortages. Th e introduction of furth er traffic calming measures and imp rov ed p edestrian facilities with in th e centre would bring furth er benefits. S h op front imp rov ements of th e stock beyond p rimary frontages would also broaden th e centre‘s attraction. Th ere is a need to reduce crime rates, p articularly during th e ev enings and weekends. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.11 Camden Town is p redominantly a linear centre with little op p ortunity for ex p ansion with in its ex isting boundaries, and th e p rov ision of large modern retail floorp lates th at are attractiv e to th e national ch ains may only be p ossible th rough th e comp reh ensiv e redev elop ment of ex isting buildings. H owev er, any dev elop ment p rop osals th at sough t to ex p and th e mainstream retailer area north wards into th e markets area may lead to th e erosion of Camden Town‘s uniq ueness. On th e oth er h and, th ere may be sp in off benefits from redev elop ment in key locations. Consideration sh ould th erefore be giv en to op p ortunities for relocation of disp laced market stalls sh ould redev elop ment p rop osals for p arts of th e ex isting markets be brough t forward. K ilburn Centre Ch aracteristics 6.12 In terms of A1 floorsp ace, K ilburn is London Borough of Camden‘s second largest centre (beh ind Camden Town) with a total of 42,291 sq m of A1 retail floorsp ace. K ilburn h as some strength s, including a strong ev ening economy, wh ich h as seen an imp rov ement in th e q uality of p rov ision in recent times, comp arativ ely good q uality arch itecture and good accessibility. 6.13 Ov erall, th e p erformance of th e centre is imp rov ing. Retail rents h av e increased by nearly 50% in th e p ast six years, th ough th ey still fall some way sh ort of th e borough ‘s more successful centres, and yields are relativ ely low at 9%. 6.14 In common with most of th e London Borough of Camden‘s centres, and indeed many traditional centres in London, K ilburn is a linear centre. H owev er, in K ilburn‘s case th e length of th e retail area (around 1.5km) sp reads th e retail attraction out, wh ich dilutes th e ov erall attraction. An adv antage th at K ilburn does h av e ov er some oth er London Borough of Camden centres is th at alth ough traffic v olumes are significant, th e traffic

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does not dominate th e street scene in th e way th at it does in S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, Camden Town or most of th e Central Area Centres. 6.15 Th e v iews and p ercep tions of S tudy Area residents of K ilburn were assessed th rough th e h ouseh old surv ey (because K ilburn functions v ery much as a local centre it was not included with th e centres wh ere a V isitors‘ S urv ey was req uired) th e key findings of wh ich are set out below. Outlook 6.16 Th ere is some demand from national multip les for floorsp ace in K ilburn, but th is is p redominantly from A1 comp arison —discount“ format retailers seeking large units. H owev er, K ilburn lacks large units to accommodate such demand and th ere is little sp ace for ex p ansion. Th e centre‘s large catch ment p op ulation suggests th at it could sup p ort a wider range of retailers, but th e sh op p ing env ironment and th e ov erall lack of sufficient critical mass of retail attraction suggests th at K ilburn is unlikely to attract significant numbers of national multip les in th e future, and is unlikely to increase its market sh are. 6.17 Th e h ouseh old surv ey results demonstrate th at only modest p rop ortions of h ouseh olds in K ilburn‘s natural catch ment area (Z one 3 and 5 œ 7.7% and 14% resp ectiv ely) use th e centre for comp arison goods p urp oses and with out th e p rov ision of facilities to riv al Brent Cross in K ilburn th is p attern will not ch ange. Th e p riority for K ilburn sh ould be to build on its relativ e strength s, th e most imp ortant being its large and relativ ely affluent catch ment p op ulation wh o sh ould be encouraged to continue to use K ilburn for conv enience and day-to-day sh op p ing p urp oses, and to use th e imp rov ing ev ening economy facilities. 6.18 K ilburn must also continue to imp rov e th e q uality of th e sh op p ing env ironment, building on recent streetscap e and sh op front imp rov ement sch emes to enable th e centre to comp ete to maintain its market sh are in th e face of growing comp etition. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.19 Op p ortunities to ex p and th e retail p rov ision in th e centre of K ilburn are limited. H owev er, th ere may be an op p ortunity for a small infill dev elop ment at th e junction with Palmerston Road and would inv olv e th e loss of some sh ort term p arking and p edestrian access to th e Webh eath Estate. On th e western side of K ilburn H igh Road, with in th e London Borough of Brent, th ere is a p ossible op p ortunity for dev elop ment of th e M ecca Bingo H all car p ark. 6.20 Th e weakness of th e p rime p itch in K ilburn and th e linear nature of th e centre suggest th at th e best op p ortunity to enh ance K ilburn as a sh op p ing destination will be to consolidate th e retail activ ity in th e central area and allowing oth er activ ities to come forward in less centrally located areas. Th e p recise location and ex tent of any consolidation would req uire more detailed local study.

District Centres H amp stead Centre Ch aracteristics 6.21 In terms of A1 floorsp ace, H amp stead is th e second smallest of Camden‘s six town centres, p rov iding a total of 12,560 sq m of A1 retail floorsp ace. Th e centre h as a strong rep utation for p rov iding a h igh q uality fash ion offer, with a large number of th e more up market national fash ion ch ains and indep endents rep resented in th e centre. Th ere is a comp arativ ely low p rop ortion of A1 conv enience floorsp ace in th e centre, and no large food retailer cap able of p rov iding a main conv enience goods sh op p ing destination. Th e centre h as good rep resentation of A3 activ ity, esp ecially in resp ect of café s and restaurants. Th e sh op p ing env ironment is p articularly p leasant with th e centre located with in a designated conserv ation area th at contains large numbers of

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listed buildings th at add v isual interest, and th e v olume and sp eed of road traffic p assing th rough th e centre is comp arativ ely low. 6.22 Th e market indicators demonstrate th at H amp stead is p erforming well. Indeed, in many resp ects it p erforms significantly abov e wh at would normally be ex p ected for a centre of its siz e, wh ich largely reflects th e affluent catch ment area. Th e centre functions as a comp arison goods sh op p ing destination p articularly for ladies wear, and h as a much better q uality and range of fash ion-wear stores th an all th e oth er London Borough of Camden centres, with th e ex cep tion of Cov ent G arden (north ern p art). H amp stead h as h igh retail rental v alues, wh ich is largely th e result of th e h igh number of small units p resent in th e centre th at are attractiv e to th e fash ion-wear boutiq ue op erators. Retailer demand for units of a wider v ariety of siz es is h igh , wh ich maintains low sh op v acancy rates. 6.23 Th e V isitors‘ S urv ey indicates th at almost 40% of v isitors come from Camden and all but a v ery small number (6%) come from elsewh ere in London. Comp arison goods sp end in H amp stead is lower th an most oth er centres in th e London Borough of Camden, wh ile conv enience goods sp end is one of th e h igh est (at £12), wh ich is surp rising giv en th e lack of main conv enience goods sh op p ing destinations, but is likely to reflect th e strength of th e top up sh op p ing p rov ision in th e centre. Th e lack of large conv enience goods stores in th e centre is emp h asised by th e h ouseh old surv ey, wh ich indicates th at conv enience goods sh op p ing needs are being met in oth er centres such as Camden Town and F inch ley Road/S wiss Cottage. Desp ite th is, th e V isitors‘ S urv ey does not indicate th at th e lack of food retailing p rov ision in th e centre is an issue; th e main concern for v isitors is th e lack of sufficient car p arking p rov ision. Th e fact th at a th ird of v isitors to H amp stead arriv e by car h as undoubtedly contributed to p arking being th e main issue raised. H owev er, th e h ouseh old surv ey demonstrates th at th ree q uarters of local residents access H amp stead on foot, with th e car accounting for only 18% of trip s. 6.24 H amp stead scored h igh ly in resp onse to q uestions on v isitor satisfaction and meeting comp arison goods sh op p ing needs in both th e V isitor and H ouseh old surv eys. Th e centre retains a reasonable p rop ortion of h ouseh olds‘ comp arison goods ex p enditure (12.6%) from th e centre‘s local catch ment area (Z one 4), wh ich comp ares fav ourably with th e draw of Brent Cross wh ich is located close by. Th e centre also scored h igh ly in terms of p rov iding an A3 leisure location and satisfying th at need. Outlook 6.25 With demand for retail rep resentation esp ecially from th e fash ion-wear retailers in H amp stead outstrip p ing sup p ly th e outlook is for continuing success. Th e centre will retain its —v illage“ atmosp h ere and continue to offer an attractiv e mix of A1 and A3 activ ity in a v ery conduciv e sh op p ing env ironment. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.26 In common with most of th e London Borough of Camden centres th ere is no obv ious op p ortunity to ex p and th e centre, wh ich in H amp stead‘s case is all th e more ch allenging giv en th e Conserv ation Area status and Listed Buildings affecting th e centre. Were th ere to be th e p h ysical cap acity for growth th ere would undoubtedly be demand from th e fash ionwear op erators and q uite p ossibly a major foodstore op erator. K entish Town Centre Ch aracteristics 6.27 K entish Town p rov ides 17,400 sq m of A1 retail floorsp ace and functions v ery much as a local centre, with th e retail and serv ice p rov ision directed v ery much at serv ing th e day-to-day needs of th e local p op ulation. F or a centre of th is siz e th e range of sh op s and serv ices p rov ided is good, and th e retail p rov ision is dominated by indep endent traders. A substantial amount of floorsp ace is in use for A3/A4/A5 uses.

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6.28 Th ere is only a limited amount of market data av ailable for K entish Town, th ough th e p rop ortion of v acant A1 units is relativ ely low at 6%. Th ere is some retailer interest, th ough th is is focussed on th e budget end of th e market (TK M ax x , Poundland) and A3/A4/A5 uses (S tarbucks, K F C). 6.29 A number of imp rov ements h av e been made to K entish Town Road, including: ° imp rov ed p edestrian crossings; ° more p arking and loading bays; ° new and brigh ter street ligh ts; ° rep av ing of footp ath s. 6.30 F urth er rep av ing of footp ath s is p rop osed, togeth er with th e creation of sq uares at Roch ester Road, F arrier S treet and H ealey S treet. 6.31 Accessibility to K entish Town by p ublic transp ort is good as both U nderground and bus transp ort th e v isitor into th e h eart of th e centre. Outlook 6.32 Th e imp rov ements being made to th e centre are likely to make th e centre increasingly attractiv e to retailers and sh op p ers, albeit only to a relativ ely local catch ment, reflecting th e siz e of th e centre and th e p rox imity to th e h igh er order centre at Camden Town. Th e centre is th erefore likely to continue to serv e as a local centre. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.33 Th ere are few, if any, op p ortunities to accommodate new dev elop ment. S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road Centre Ch aracteristics 6.34 In terms of A1 floorsp ace, S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road is th e th ird largest centre in th e London Borough of Camden with a total of 33,970 sq m of A1 retail floorsp ace, ov er h alf of wh ich is used for comp arison goods retailing. Ov erall, S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road is p erforming reasonably well, with th e p rop ortion of v acant A1 units at around 7%, lower th an both Camden Town and K ilburn. F urth ermore, yields are reasonable at 7%. 6.35 Th e op ening of th e O2 Centre in 1999 h as p rov ided a significant increase in both A3 and D2 leisure p rov ision in th e locality, acting as a key anch or for th e centre, and our h ouseh old surv ey demonstrates th e wide scale attraction of th e centre. At th e south ern end of th e centre, th e V isage leisure centre/S wiss Cottage Cultural Centre h as p rov ided anoth er anch or for th e centre. S maller scale dev elop ment h as also taken p lace at th e north ern end of th e centre, with a new residential-led sch eme with retail at ground floor recently comp leted at th e corner of Lymington Road (south ern side) and F inch ley Road. Th at said, it is clear th at th ere is a h eav y reliance on th e H abitat store, wh ich h as relocated to th e O2 centre, and th e Waitrose store, wh ich h as ex p anded to fill th e entire unit, to p rov ide th e retail attraction. 6.36 Like most linear centres located on a busy arterial route, a key issue is th e p oor sh op p ing env ironment th at results from th e traffic-ch oked roadway and th e fact th at v isitors are unable to mov e freely and easily about th e centre. Th e barrier created by th e road h as led to th e main retail attraction becoming focused on th e western side of F inch ley Road, with th e eastern side suffering as a result. 6.37 Th e h ouseh old surv ey identifies th e imp ortance of th e O2 Centre in attracting v isitors from a wide area, beyond th e local z one (Z one 3), alth ough th e A3 activ ity draw is much more localised.

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Outlook 6.38 Th e O2 Centre trades v ery successfully, and th e wider centre is now p erforming reasonably well. M oreov er, th e centre h as a large and relativ ely affluent catch ment p op ulation, and th ere is an op p ortunity to build on th is. A key concern, h owev er, is th e dominance of road traffic, wh ich h as a major negativ e imp act up on th e q uality of th e sh op p ing env ironment. With out measures to reduce th e dominance of th e road traffic th is centre will continue to lose out to centres elsewh ere th at p rov ide both a more conduciv e sh op p ing env ironment and conseq uently a better q uality and range of sh op p ing. If th e sh op p ing env ironment can be imp rov ed th ere may be an op p ortunity to increase th e retention rates for comp arison goods sh op p ing, wh ich are currently low (11% of Z one 3 and 10% of Z one 6). Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.39 Alth ough th e centre is p erforming reasonably well, it would nev erth eless benefit from greater consolidation of th e retail activ ity. Th e p recise definition of any redrawn p rimary frontages or th e p rimary sh op p ing area would req uire detailed local assessment, but may ex tend south towards th e S wiss Cottage area (incorp orating S up erdrug, WH S mith , Argos, Costa Coffee and M cDonald‘s) and north to include th e O2. A p otential redev elop ment site (or p erh ap s more likely a refurbish ment op p ortunity) ex ists at th e junction of Lymington Road (north ern side) and F inch ley Road. Th is former car sh owroom could p otentially accommodate req uirements from sp ecialist furniture sh owrooms or scooter sales, for wh ich th ere is a known demand. Th is would ensure th at ”core‘ retail activ ity wh ich generates a h igh er footfall is concentrated in th e areas around H abitat and Waitrose. West H amp stead Centre Ch aracteristics 6.40 In terms of A1 floorsp ace, West H amp stead is th e smallest of th e London Borough of Camden town centres p rov iding 9,110 sq m of A1 retail floorsp ace. M arket information on th e centre is limited, but it is ev ident th at th e centre p erforms both a conv enience and comp arison goods sh op p ing role, albeit th e comp arison goods stores are limited to a relativ ely local catch ment. Conv enience floorsp ace is currently dominated by indep endent conv enience outlets, th ough we understand th at th e Woods and Woods furniture store on West End Lane closed on 17 F ebruary 2008 and will re-op en in th e summer as a Tesco store. 6.41 Th e north ern p art of th e centre h as a p leasant v illage ch aracter; env ironmental q uality is h igh with wide p av ements, a seating area, attractiv e buildings and well-maintained sh op fronts. H owev er, th e south ern p art of th e centre, wh ere th e station is located, h as narrow p av ements and a less attractiv e env ironment. Relativ ely few v isitors access th e town centre by rail (oth er th an commuting related sh op p ing trip s on th e way h ome from work). N ev erth eless, if imp rov ements to th e env ironment from th e south could be imp lemented th is would undoubtedly h av e a p ositiv e effect on trading p rosp ects in th e centre, albeit not significant. Outlook 6.42 West H amp stead‘s role will continue to be th e p rov ision of th e day-to-day needs of th e local catch ment p op ulation, both in terms of conv enience and comp arison goods. Th e p rop osed Tesco store will p rov ide a new anch or for th e centre and may encourage linked trip s to oth er stores in th e centre. On th e oth er h and, it may p ut at risk some of th e ex isting conv enience retailers. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.43 Th e area around th e stations is th e subject of draft p lanning framework, p ublish ed in M arch 2004 and seeks th e dev elop ment of:

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° both frontages to West End Lane as an ex tension to th e retail centre (with small scale retail units at ground floor lev el and residential use abov e) ° land immediately to th e east of West End Lane for a new transp ort interch ange with a mix of residential/office/small scale retail, albeit with residential th e dominant use after transp ort. 6.44 In addition, West H amp stead h as been identified as an Area for Intensification in th e London Plan. Th e op p ortunity to take forward dev elop ment consistent with th e p lanning framework remains. H owev er, th e location is likely to attract only comp arison goods retailers serv ing th e immediate catch ment and some conv enience retail serv ing both th e immediate catch ment and th e commuting p ublic.

Centres/frontages/areas With in th e Central Actv ities Z one Ch aring Cross Road Ch aracteristics 6.45 Ch aring Cross Road is p art of th e West End, and is a sp ecialist retail centre for books and music. Th e centre is linear in nature and is bisected east west by th e Westminster City and London Borough of Camden borough boundaries (Westminster resp onsible for th e western side and Camden for th e eastern side). Almost all th e A1 class floorsp ace on Ch aring Cross Road is in comp arison goods use. In terms of market indicators, Ch aring Cross Road is p erforming better th an in recent years, with rents increasing by 60% between 2001 and 2007, th e greatest increase for all th e centres and frontages for wh ich data are av ailable. Th at said, rents are still lower th an in Tottenh am Court Road and H igh H olborn 6.46 Th e v iews and p ercep tions of v isitors are restricted to th e analysis of th e V isitors‘ S urv ey. Th is centre, togeth er with Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) and Tottenh am Court Road, h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors from beyond London (some 40%). Th e av erage sp end on comp arison goods is th e lowest of all th e Central Area Centres (£20), wh ich is likely to reflect th e v alue of th e goods sold in th e centre. Only 3% of v isitors access Ch aring Cross Road by p riv ate car, with th e majority trav elling by tube, bus or train. Outlook 6.47 Ch aring Cross Road is not a mainstream comp arison goods sh op p ing location: it h as a p articular sp ecialist retail function, wh ich is of international renown. Th is sp ecialist function sh ould be encouraged and any p ressure for A3/A4/A5 uses sh ould be resisted. Th e sh op p ing env ironment on Ch aring Cross Road is p oor, and th e centre would th erefore benefit from env ironmental imp rov ements. Difficulties in management p osed by th e centre being bisected by th e City of Westminster and London Borough of Camden could be in p art solv ed by th e creation of a BID for th e centre, p ossibly in conjunction with Tottenh am Court Road. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.48 Th ere is little op p ortunity for ex p ansion in th is centre, oth er th an at th e north ern end (see section on Tottenh am Court Road/N ew Ox ford S treet). Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) Centre Ch aracteristics 6.49 Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) is also p art of th e West End and p erforms a sp ecialist fash ion retailing role comp rising, in th e main, indep endent fash ion-wear retailers commonly occup ying small units of between 60 sq m to100 sq m set in a h igh q uality sh op p ing env ironment. In common with th e south ern p art of Cov ent G arden (located in th e City of Westminster) it is a destination and festiv al sh op p ing area attracting v isitors from all ov er th e U K and from abroad.

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6.50 Th ere is substantial retailer interest in Cov ent G arden: 74 national multip les h av e sp ace req uirements with in th e wider Cov ent G arden area. Both A1 comp arison and A3 retailers are seeking sp ace in th e wider Cov ent G arden area, most of wh om would almost certainly also consider sp ace in Cov ent G arden (north ern p art), with its mix of fash ion and A3 retailing. Th ose retailers seeking sp ace are generally at th e ”q uality‘ end of th e market. 6.51 Our assessment of th e v iews and p ercep tions of v isitors to Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) are restricted to th ose of th e v isitors interv iewed with in th e centre during th e v isitors‘ surv ey, and not a detailed assessment of th e v iews of residents with in th e S tudy Area, as th rough th e medium of th e h ouseh old surv ey we were unable to distinguish sep arate v iews for Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) from v iews ex p ressed in resp ect of th e wider West End. Th e V isitors‘ S urv ey confirms th e h igh p rop ortion of non-London based v isitors to th e area, with 40% of v isitors surv eyed coming from beyond London. Oth er th an H atton G arden and Tottenh am Court Road (both of wh ich are sp ecialist sh op p ing v enues with h igh v alue items), v isitors to Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) h av e th e h igh est sp end on comp arison goods (£45) of all th e centres surv eyed. Th e centre also h as one of th e h igh est p rop ortions of v isitors arriv ing by means oth er th an th e p riv ate car (92%). Outlook 6.52 Th e future for th is centre are firmly linked to th e fortunes of th e West End as a wh ole, and will be sensitiv e to th e global security situation and th e terrorist th reat more so th an oth er centres th at rely less on tourist numbers. Th e ex p ectation is th at due to th e ov erall offer in Cov ent G arden, in terms of wh ich Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) p lays an imp ortant role, th e area will continue to offer th e typ e of uniq ue v isitor attraction th at will keep drawing th e crowds. An imp ortant facet of th e area is th e balance of A1 to A3 retail p rov ision, with A3 imp ortant in th e Plaz a and th e adjoining streets. Th e combination of retail and p laces to eat and drink is crucial to th e ov erall attraction giv en th e benefits of max imising dwell times th rough out th e day and into th e ev ening. H owev er, th e A3 activ ity must not come to dominate th e A1 uses if th e area is to retain its retail attraction. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.53 Th ere are no retail dev elop ment op p ortunity sites in Cov ent G arden (north ern p art). H atton G arden Centre Ch aracteristics 6.54 H atton G arden is not p art of th e West End. Th e centre h as two distinct retail functions; a sp ecialist retail area for jewellery of international rep ute, and also as a local centre p rov iding th e day-to-day needs of th e local resident p op ulation and office workforce. Added colour and interest is p rov ided by Leath er Lane market, wh ich is an imp ortant attraction for both local residents and workers. 6.55 Th e V isitors‘ S urv ey demonstrates th at a th ird of v isitors are from th e local London borough s with almost h alf coming from elsewh ere in London, and a fifth from elsewh ere in th e U K . Th e surv ey did not identify large numbers of foreign v isitors. In terms of sp end th e surv ey identified th at H atton G arden comp arison goods sp end (£78) was only bettered by Tottenh am Court Road and th e conv enience goods sp end was considerably h igh er th an any of th e oth er Central Area Centres at ov er £16. Wh ilst only 10% of v isitors trav elled to th e centre by th e p riv ate car, th e largest single group of v isitors were th ose wh o trav elled on foot and not th ose trav elling by forms of p ublic transp ort. Outlook 6.56 H atton G arden‘s role as a world-renowned centre for jewellery and its distinctiv eness relies on th e jux tap osition of manufacturing activ ity and retail. F urth er ex p ansion of th e

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retailing activ ity sh ould be encouraged wh ere th is can be ach iev ed with out undermining th e manufacturing activ ity. 6.57 If retail-led dev elop ment were to be taken forward at S mith field M arket and/or F arringdon S tation could h alt any furth er ex p ansion or p ossibly erode H atton G arden‘s role in serv ing th e day-to-day needs of th e local resident p op ulation and office workforce. Th is may mean th at th e centre would need to become more focussed on its sp ecialist function. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.58 Th e sp ecialist nature of th e dominant activ ity in H atton G arden suggests th at any future ex p ansion of th e retail activ ity in th e centre will be p iecemeal in nature, and in common with th e oth er centres and frontages in th e Central Activ ities Z one will be mostly p rov ided th rough intensification. H igh H olborn Centre Ch aracteristics 6.59 H igh H olborn is not p art of th e West End, and unlike Camden‘s oth er Central Area Centres does not h av e a sp ecialist retail function. Th e centre p rincip ally serv es th e daytime weekday office workforce, and h as much reduced v isitor numbers in th e ev ening and at weekends. Th e retail p rov ision reflects th is role with large numbers of A3 activ ities, sandwich bars and routine comp arison goods stores. 6.60 Data from Colliers CRE indicates th at Z one A rents in H igh H olborn h av e risen from £1,399/sq m p er annum in 2001 to £1,938/sq m p er annum in 2007, an increase of 39%. By th at measure it is doing better th an Ch aring Cross Road, wh ich ach iev ed rents of £1,722/sq m in 2007, but falls some way sh ort of Tottenh am Court Road, wh ich ach iev ed rents of £2,637/sq m. 6.61 Th e v iews and p ercep tions of v isitors to th e centre are assessed th rough analysis of th e V isitors‘ S urv ey, wh ich indicates th at 20% of all v isitors are local London Borough of Camden residents. V isitor sp end on comp arison goods is th e second lowest of all th e centres/frontages with in th e Central Activ ities Z one (at £25), but th e conv enience goods sp end is second h igh est at £5. Th e surv ey indicates th at no v isitors at all use th e p riv ate car to access th e centre, with most using Tube or bus. Outlook 6.62 H igh H olborn‘s strength s are th e wide v ariety of A3 p rov ision and th e conv enience goods, comp arison goods and serv ice outlets th at cater for daytime weekday office workers and th e needs of local businesses. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.63 G iv en th e role of th is centre and th e sep aration from th e West End, th e centre will continue to p rov ide refurbish ed retail accommodation (and in some cases redev elop ment of indiv idual sites). Th at said, H olborn h as been identified as an Area for Intensification, and nearby Tottenh am Court Road h as been identified as an Op p ortunity Area in th e London Plan, and th ere is a case for furth er consideration of th e links between th e two areas. Tottenh am Court Road/N ew Ox ford S treet Centre Ch aracteristics 6.64 Tottenh am Court Road is located with in th e West End, and it is a successful centre renowned for two sp ecialist retail sectors: electronic goods and furniture. Th ese two activ ities are distinct from one anoth er, in terms of both location and catch ment area. Th e electronics retailers tend to locate in th e south ern p art of Tottenh am Court Road, wh ere th e units command h igh er rents, and th e furniture traders group in th e central and north ern z ones.

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6.65 Th e market indicators av ailable sh ow th at Tottenh am Court Road is p erforming well: rental lev els are th e h igh est of all London Borough of Camden‘s centres and h av e seen an increase of 47% between 2001 and 2007. Th e majority of floorsp ace on Tottenh am Court Road is used for A1 comp arison retail, but th e centre also h as good p rov ision of A1 conv enience floorsp ace. 6.66 Th e V isitors‘ S urv ey indicates th at ap p rox imately a q uarter of all v isitors come from th e local borough s, wh ile just ov er a th ird come from beyond London (less th an Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) and Ch aring Cross Road, but more th an H atton G arden and H igh H olborn). V isitors to Tottenh am Court Road record th e h igh est sp end on comp arison goods with an av erage of £95, wh ich reflects th e h igh v alue items sold in th is centre. Conv enience goods sp end is th e lowest of all centres surv eyed. Th e mode of transp ort used to access th e centre sh ows a similar p attern to th at of th e oth er centres and frontages with in th e Central Activ ities Z one, with reliance on p ublic transp ort, significant numbers walking to th e centre (wh ich indicates th at local residents are more inclined to walk) and v ery few (5%) arriv ing by p riv ate car. Outlook 6.67 It is likely th at th e successful sp ecialist retail in Tottenh am Court Road will continue to th riv e, and th at th ere will be some p ressure for intensification of ex isting sites. Alth ough data sp ecific to N ew Ox ford S treet is not av ailable, it ap p ears to be p erforming less strongly and lacks th e v itality th at migh t be ex p ected of a central London frontage. Op p ortunities for G rowth 6.68 On Tottenh am Court Road itself th e main scop e for ex p ansion is th rough intensification of sites in ex isting A1 use, along with th e cleared site at th e junction of Tottenh am Court Road/G rafton Way. Tottenh am Court Road h as been identified as an Op p ortunity Area in th e London Plan, and nearby H olborn h as been identified as an Area of Intensification, and th ere is a case for furth er consideration of th e links between th ese two areas. On N ew Ox ford S treet th ere is an op p ortunity to introduce additional retail activ ities, p erh ap s building on th e ex isting cluster of p h otograp h y and comp uter-related retail at th e western end of th e street. S outh of N ew Ox ford S treet th ere is an op p ortunity to introduce new food and drink uses, sp ecialist sh op s and tourist and entertainment attractions along S t G iles H igh S treet and S h aftesbury Av enue.

K ey M essages 6.69 As is to be ex p ected of an inner London borough , London Borough of Camden‘s retail centres and frontages disp lay a div erse range of ch aracteristics, ranging from th e world renowned Cov ent G arden to th e v illage-like H amp stead. S ome centres are significant London centres in th eir own righ t; some h av e a strong ev ening economy; oth ers attract h igh p rop ortions of v isitors from beyond London, some p resent a limited range of goods and serv ices; some serv e p rimarily local residents wh ilst oth ers are reliant on weekday custom by office workers. Th ere is wide div ergence between th e centres in terms of th e key p erformance indicators, wh ich means some are more attractiv e for future inv estment th an oth ers.

Conclusions on th e Centre H ierarch y 6.70 One of th e aims of th e p rev ious study was to assess th e ap p rop riateness of th e ex isting retail centre h ierarch y. Th is must be seen in th e contex t of th e London Plan, wh ich as we note in section 2 identifies Camden Town and K ilburn as ”M ajor Centres‘, togeth er with four district centres: S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, K entish Town, H amp stead and West H amp stead. Imp ortantly, one of th e key ”tests of soundness‘ for LDF dev elop ment p lan documents is th e need to in ”general conformity‘ with S p atial

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Dev elop ment S trategy (London Plan). Th e London Borough of Camden would th erefore need a comp elling reason to div ert from th e definitions in th e London Plan. 6.71 M ajor centres are described as Annex 1 of th e London Plan as ”ch aracteristic of inner London‘. It furth er notes th at: ° Th ey act as imp ortant sh op p ing and serv ice centres, often with a borough -wide catch ment; ° Th eir attractiv eness is deriv ed from a mix of both comp arison and conv enience sh op p ing ° Th ey typ ically h av e ov er 50,000 sq uare metres of retail floorsp ace; ° M ay h av e some leisure h av e some leisure and entertainment functions. 6.72 District centres are also described at Annex 1 of th e London Plan. It notes th at: ° Th ey h av e traditionally p rov ided conv enience goods and serv ices for more local communities; ° Th ey may h av e sp ecialist sh op p ing functions, often as a result of th eir lower rents. ° M any h av e a linear nature, wh ich may need to be consolidated to make more efficient use of land and transp ort cap acity. 6.73 We h av e assessed th e role and function of each centre based up on th e town centre h ealth ch eck work and th e results of th e h ouseh old and v isitor surv eys. In th e ligh t of our analysis we are satisfied th at Camden Town serv es as a ”M ajor‘ centre. It is, h owev er, difficult to see h ow K ilburn can be defined as a ”M ajor‘ centre, giv en th at its catch ment is relativ ely small and, alth ough it h as a substantial p rop ortion of comp arison goods floorsp ace, p erforms a local sh op p ing role, not at all th e role th at is env isaged for a M ajor centre. 6.74 We agree with th e London Plan‘s designation of S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, K entish Town, H amp stead and West H amp stead as district centres, but th at is not to say th ey fit neatly with in th e London Plan definition of a district centre. Leisure p rov ision at S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, attracts v isitors from a wide catch ment, alth ough th e retail catch ment is more local. S imilarly, H amp stead h as a substantial comp arison goods offer, th ough giv en th at th is is focussed on th e up market fash ion-wear sector it may be seen as th e ”sp ecialist‘ retail role to wh ich Annex 1 refers. 6.75 We agree th at K entish Town and West H amp stead do function in accordance with th eir district centre designation by p rov iding a local conv enience and serv ice sector retail offer. 6.76 Designation of th e centres, frontages and areas in th e Central Activ ities Z one is ev en more difficult. Th e London Plan indicates th at Tottenh am Court Road and p art of N ew Ox ford S treet are central area frontages wh ich fall with in th e West End S p ecial Retail Policy Area (WES RPA), for wh ich a p lanning framework will be p rep ared by th e M ayor of London and oth er stakeh olders. We agree with th e London Plan designation of th ese frontages, th ough defining th eir ex act ex tent will req uire more detailed analysis, and may also be dep endent on wh eth er London Borough of Camden continues to p ursue a p olicy seeking to ex tend th e q uality of th e retail offer along N ew Ox ford S treet. Th ere is a case for widening th e WES RPA to take account of th e Op p ortunity Area at th e junction of Tottenh am Court Road, Ch aring Cross Road and Ox ford S treet and N ew Ox ford S treet, togeth er with Ch aring Cross Road itself. Th is could be considered th rough joint working in th e p rep aration of th e p lanning framework for th e WES RPA. 6.77 H igh H olborn/K ingsway and Ch aring Cross Road are also defined as a central area frontages, a designation with wh ich we agree. Again, th e ex act ex tent of th ese frontages will req uire more detailed analysis, p robably in consultation with th e G LA. H atton G arden receiv es no mention in th e London Plan, but in our v iew it could usefully

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be identified as a district centre, giv en th at it p rov ides on th e one h and for a relativ ely local catch ment for ”day-to-day‘ retail but also p erforms a sp ecialist role. Cap acity to Accommodate th e F loorsp ace G rowth Projections 6.78 In section 5 we concluded th at if th e S tudy Area centres maintain th eir ex isting market sh are ex p enditure growth in th e S tudy Area will p roduce th e net floorsp ace req uirements set out in Table 6.1 below. Table 6.1 F orecast floorsp ace req uirements (sq m net) Typ e of floorsp ace 2012 2017 2022 2027 With out Brent Cross ex tension Comp arison 3,500 9,000 17,000 26,500 Conv enience 900 1,400 2,800 4,700 With Brent Cross ex tension Comp arison 3,500 5,000 13,000 22,500 Conv enience 900 1,400 2,800 4,600

6.79 Our assessment indicates th at th ere is v ery little p h ysical cap acity to accommodate significant additional retail floorsp ace in any of th e London Borough of Camden centres. Th e req uirement for new floorsp ace will th erefore need to be accommodated th rough redev elop ment of ex isting retail, coup led with some additional dev elop ment at th e Op p ortunity Areas at Euston and Tottenh am Court Road and Areas for Intensification at West H amp stead and H olborn. 6.80 One critical issue req uiring furth er consideration is th e role of th e markets at Camden Town, and th e ex tent to wh ich p art of th e markets migh t come forward for redev elop ment. It is difficult to offer a v iew on th is at th is stage, giv en th e recent fire and th e current uncertainty ov er th e Camden Town U nderground station site, but as our p rev ious study of markets suggested, we do not believ e th at conclusiv e ev idence is av ailable to justify th e retention of Camden M arket (at Buck S treet) and th e Electric M arket in th eir current form. H owev er, sh ould redev elop ment of Buck S treet come forward, th ere may be an op p ortunity to accommodate some disp laced traders at H awley Wh arf. It may also be p ossible to accommodate an element of non-market retail sp ace at th e Camden Town U nderground station site and th e H awley Wh arf site.

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7 S U M M ARY AN D CON CLU S ION S S urv ey Conclusions and S h op p ing Patterns H ouseh old S urv ey 7.1 A detailed h ouseh old q uestionnaire was undertaken for th e 2004 study and we h av e drawn on its outp uts for th is up date. Th e surv ey was undertaken across th e S tudy Area‘s eigh t z ones to establish market sh ares for both comp arison and conv enience goods. Th is inv olv ed a random samp le of 1,000 h ouseh olds, 125 h ouseh olds in each z one. Th e q uestionnaire focused on sp ending p atterns in th e identified centres with in London Borough of Camden, in two centres in London Borough of Islington (Angel and N ags H ead) and th ose centres elsewh ere th at draw significant numbers of sh op p ers. 7.2 Th e surv ey illustrated th e p erceiv ed function and attractiv eness of each centre and th e sh op p ing h abits of residents by z one. F or comp arison goods sh op p ing, th e West End p rov ed h ugely attractiv e, securing a 43% market sh are), followed by Brent Cross (13%). N o centre in Camden or Islington came close to match ing th e West End or Brent Cross, th e nex t rankings being Angel (6%), Camden Town (5%), and N ags H ead (4%). 7.3 Inev itably, market sh ares for conv enience goods p resented a different and more diffuse p attern of trade. In terms of th e main food sh op p ing, of th ose h ouseh olds surv eyed, th e surv ey sh owed th at Camden Town (S ainsbury, S afeway23, M arks & S p encer and S ainsbury‘s Local) with 16.2% was th e centre with th e largest market sh are, followed by S wiss Cottage (S ainsbury and Waitrose) (13.4%), Angel (S ainsbury) with 8.4% and N ag‘s H ead/H olloway Road (Waitrose and S afeway, trading as M orrison) with 7%. 7.4 Th e trav el ch aracteristics related to comp arison goods sh op p ing trip s demonstrates th e dominance of bus trav el. Th is accounts for two-th irds of all trip s from th e S tudy Area to Camden Town, and 50% of all trip s to th e West End. H amp stead is accessed by much th e lowest p rop ortion of bus borne sh op p ers (9%). Th e U nderground is significant as a means of trav el only to th e West End (21% of all trip s). Th is comp ares with only 4% for Camden Town. 7.5 A significant number of journeys for comp arison goods sh op p ing p urp oses from with in th e S tudy Area are made on foot. Walking dominates trip s to H amp stead and is significant for oth er centres with a largely local catch ment, namely K ilburn H igh Road (42%), N ags H ead (38%) and Angel (31%). As migh t be ex p ected, trip s to Brent Cross are largely car borne (71%), with no oth er centre h av ing more th an 20% of trip s by car. Th us th e general p attern is v ery much one of reliance on p ublic transp ort for most centres, but th is transp ort is generally bus- and not Tube-based. V isitor S urv ey 7.6 A v isitor surv ey was undertaken for th e 2004 study in resp ect of each of th e centres surv eyed starting with th e fiv e Central London Area centres, followed by Camden Town and H amp stead, and th en th e two London Borough of Islington centres in th e study area. Once again, we h av e drawn on its outp uts for th is up date. 7.7 Camden Town: Th e surv ey sh owed Camden Town is a centre th at attracts p rop ortionately far more v isitors from elsewh ere in th e U K and from abroad th an any oth er surv eyed centre in Camden or Islington. Camden Town also h as a fairly ev en sp lit, by v isitor numbers, between conv enience and comp arison ex p enditure

23 Th e S afeway store in Camden Town now trades as a M orrisons store

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and a larger p rop ortion (28%) of v isitors trav elling by Tube th an any oth er Camden or Islington centre in th e surv ey. 7.8 Th e centre‘s strength deriv es from comp arison and A3 ex p enditure and leisure activ ities. Of th e eigh t centres included in th e V isitor S urv ey, Camden Town is p rop ortionately th e most p op ular for indoor leisure activ ities and th e second most p op ular for meeting in cafes, bars and restaurants. Of th e nine surv eyed locations, Camden h ad th e fewest resp ondents wh o considered it a p leasant p lace to sh op . 7.9 H amp stead: Th e V isitor S urv ey p laces H amp stead as a p articularly distinctiv e centre. It h as p rop ortionately more v isitors from oth er London Borough s th an any oth er centre. It h as a clear balance between conv enience and comp arison goods sh op p ing by v isitor numbers. Only a v ery small p rop ortion of v isitors consider th at comp arison needs and café /bars/restaurant p rov ision in th is centre are p oorly or v ery p oorly catered for œ 8% and 4% resp ectiv ely. 7.10 H amp stead is th e centre th at h as th e h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors trav elling by car (33%). Th is comp arativ ely h igh p rop ortion togeth er with th e current difficulties in accessing th e centre and also in finding a car p arking sp ace (as identified in Table 2.16), suggests th at it will be difficult to generate significant modal sh ift for H amp stead sh op p ers. 7.11 Centres/frontages/areas With in th e Central Actv ities Z one: Th ese comp rise Ch aring Cross Road, Tottenh am Court Road/N ew Ox ford S treet, H igh H olborn, Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) and H atton G arden. Th e V isitor S urv ey broadly reflects many concep tions as to th e nature and function of th ese centres. Th us Ch aring Cross Road h as a large p rop ortion of v isitors from U K outside London and from ov erseas (41%) and low ex p enditure p er h ead for both conv enience and comp arison goods. Tottenh am Court Road and H atton G arden h av e h igh lev els of (sp ecialist) comp arison ex p enditure, with th e former being th e centre h av ing th e largest p rop ortion (19%) of v isitors from outside th e U K . H igh H olborn is v ery much a conv enience centre sup p orted largely by local workers rath er th an residents or v isitors. Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) h as th e second h igh est p rop ortion of v isitors from outside London (40%), almost certainly reflecting its location as p art of th e div erse and v ibrant group of attractions located at Cov ent G arden. 7.12 F our of th e Central London Area centres surv eyed h av e a h igh degree of reliance on journeys by Tube. Th e ex cep tion is H atton G arden. Th is is only p artially accountable by reference to th e geograp h y of th e U nderground system and is almost certainly more a reflection of significant walk-in trade by office workers from nearby surrounding p remises.

H ealth ch eck Conclusions 7.13 Below we briefly summarise th e h ealth ch eck and surv ey work findings in resp ect of each of th e centres and conclude on each centre‘s role and p osition in th e retail h ierarch y. Th e centres th at we h av e assessed are: ° M ajor Centres (as identified by th e London Plan): Camden Town, K ilburn (also h av ing regard to th at p art of th e centre in London Borough of Brent); ° District Centres (as identified by th e London Plan): S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road, K entish Town, H amp stead and West H amp stead; ° Centres/frontages/areas falling with in th e Central Actv ities Z one (as defined by th e London Plan): H atton G arden/Leath er Lane, Cov ent G arden (also h av ing regard to th at p art of Cov ent G arden with in Westminster), Tottenh am Court Road/N ew Ox ford S treet, Ch aring Cross Road, H igh H olborn. M ajor Centres 7.14 Camden Town and K ilburn are both identified in th e London Plan as M ajor centres. Camden Town serv es a much wider catch ment th an any oth er centre in th e

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Borough outside th e Central Actv ities Z one and attracts p eop le from around th e world. Th e centre scores h igh ly in terms of th e key p erformance indicators of town centre h ealth , alth ough rental growth h as been much lower th an in frontages in th e Central Actv ities Z one. A critical issue for Camden Town is th e future of th e markets, p articularly in th e ligh t of p rop osals for th e redev elop ment of Buck S treet and th e recent fire. On th e one h and th e redev elop ment of p arts of th e market may lead to th e erosion of Camden Town‘s uniq ueness. On th e oth er h and, th ere may be sp in off benefits from redev elop ment in key locations. Consideration sh ould th erefore be giv en to op p ortunities for relocation of disp laced market stalls sh ould redev elop ment p rop osals for p arts of th e ex isting markets be brough t forward. We agree with th e London Plan designation of Camden Town as a M ajor centre. 7.15 K ilburn serv es a relativ ely localised catch ment. Th e h ealth of th e centre is imp rov ing, and retail rents h av e increased by nearly 50% in th e p ast six years and it h as a strong ev ening economy. Th at said, th e sh op p ing env ironment is unattractiv e and th e centre lacks th e larger units req uired to accommodate th ose retailers wh o are seeking sp ace in th e centre. Th e p riorities for K ilburn are to build on its strength s in order th at it can continue to serv e th e local p op ulation for conv enience and day-to-day sh op p ing p urp oses, and to imp rov e th e q uality of th e sh op p ing env ironment. In terms of th e centre‘s designation, it is difficult to see wh y K ilburn is defined as a ”M ajor‘ centre in th e London Plan, giv en th at its catch ment is relativ ely small and, alth ough it h as a substantial p rop ortion of comp arison goods floorsp ace, p erforms a local sh op p ing role, not at all th e role th at is env isaged for a M ajor centre. District Centres 7.16 Th e O2 Centre at S wiss Cottage/F inch ley Road h as much imp rov ed th e leisure offer in th is centre, and attracts p eop le from a wide area. Th e catch ment for th e retail offer, h owev er, is much smaller. Th e centre is p erforming reasonably well, th ough th ere is a h eav y reliance on th e H abitat store, wh ich h as relocated to th e O2 centre, and th e Waitrose store, wh ich h as ex p anded to fill th e entire unit, to p rov ide th e retail attraction, and th e centre may benefit from consolidation of th e centre around th e core sh op p ing and leisure areas. Based on th e London Plan definition we th ink designation as a ”district centre‘ is reasonable. 7.17 K entish Town serv es a v ery localised catch ment p op ulation p rincip ally for conv enience goods and retail serv ices. Th e centre does sup p ort some comp arison goods retailing, but th e stores form a comp arativ ely low p rop ortion of th e ov erall floorsp ace, and like th e oth er small centres, a large number of th e comp arison goods activ ity is eith er to serv e day-to-day needs or sp ecialist retailers drawing from a much wider catch ment such as electronics and musical instrument stores. Imp rov ements are being made to th e streetscap e wh ich are likely to make th e centre increasingly attractiv e to retailers and sh op p ers, albeit only to a relativ ely local catch ment, reflecting th e siz e of th e centre and th e p rox imity to th e h igh er order centre at Camden Town. Th e centre is th erefore likely to continue to serv e as a district centre, in accordance with its London Plan designation. 7.18 H amp stead is th e second smallest of th e London Borough of Camden‘s centres in terms of floorsp ace (West H amp stead being th e smallest) but is p erforming strongly. Th e centre is renowned for its fash ion-wear boutiq ues and attractiv e env ironment and attracts sh op p ers for th is typ e of goods from beyond its immediate catch ment. In resp ect of th is activ ity th e centre p erforms considerably better th an its siz e would suggest. If additional floorsp ace could be accommodated in th e centre it would undoubtedly trade well. H owev er, because significant numbers of sh op p ing trip s to H amp stead are made by car, and th e p h ysical constraints p laced on future dev elop ment by th e q uality of th e env ironment, th ere is no obv ious p rosp ect for significant additional floorsp ace in th e centre.

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7.19 Th is centre does not easily fit into th e London Plan centre definitions as it h as only modest retail floorsp ace, wh ich suggests a district centre designation, yet a substantial p rop ortion of th is is for comp arison goods. H owev er, much of th e comp arison goods floorsp ace can be seen as sp ecialist, and th us consistent with th e London Plan district centre status. 7.20 West H amp stead caters p redominantly for th e conv enience goods and serv ice needs of a v ery localised catch ment, with h igh p rov ision of conv enience goods retailing such as grocers, newsagents and off-licences. Th e centre is fulfilling its role as a district centre, and th is role would be reinforced if a new transp ort interch ange and associated dev elop ment were to come forward in th e future. 7.21 Centres/frontages/areas falling with in th e Central Actv ities Z one 7.22 H igh H olborn/K ingsway and Ch aring Cross Road are both designated in th e London Plan as central area frontages. Th ey p erform different roles, th e former p rov iding retail and serv ice facilities for th e daytime office worker p op ulation and th e latter as a sp ecialist sh op p ing destination (for books and music). Both are p erforming well, th ough th e latter would benefit from env ironmental/streetscap e imp rov ements. Th e ex act ex tent of th e frontage will need to be agreed th rough more detailed analysis, p ossibly in association with G LA officers. 7.23 Tottenh am Court Road and p art of N ew Ox ford S treet are also designated central area frontages in th e London Plan, and also fall with in th e West End S p ecial Retail Policy Area (WES RPA). Both Tottenh am Court and th e western p art of N ew Ox ford S treet are p erforming well, th ough th ere is an op p ortunity to dev elop th e N ew Ox ford S treet furth er east in order to imp rov e th e link with H olborn. 7.24 H atton G arden h as two distinct retail functions as both a sp ecialist retail area for jewellery and as a local centre p rov iding th e day-to-day needs of th e local resident p op ulation and office workforce. Added colour and interest is p rov ided by Leath er Lane market, wh ich is an imp ortant attraction for both local residents and workers. Cov ent G arden (north ern p art) p erforms a sp ecialist fash ion retailing role and th e area is p erforming well, with numerous retailer req uirements.

F orecast Retail N eed 7.25 In section 5 we concluded th at if th e S tudy Area centres maintain th eir ex isting market sh are ex p enditure growth in th e S tudy Area will p roduce th e net floorsp ace req uirements set out in Table 7.1 below. Table 7.1 F orecast floorsp ace req uirements (sq m net) Typ e of floorsp ace 2012 2017 2022 2027 With out Brent Cross ex tension Comp arison 3,500 9,000 17,000 26,500 Conv enience 900 1,400 2,800 4,700 With Brent Cross ex tension Comp arison 3,500 5,000 13,000 22,500 Conv enience 900 1,400 2,800 4,600

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Accommodation of N eed 7.26 Our assessment indicates th at th ere is v ery little p h ysical cap acity to accommodate significant additional retail floorsp ace in any of th e London Borough of Camden centres. Th e req uirement for new floorsp ace will th erefore need to be accommodated th rough redev elop ment of ex isting retail, coup led with some additional dev elop ment at th e Op p ortunity Areas at Euston and Tottenh am Court Road and Areas for Intensification at West H amp stead and H olborn. 7.27 Turning to conv enience goods, th e limited req uirement sh ould, in our v iew, be accommodated th rough small scale ex tensions to ex isting stores in th e sh ort- to medium-term. In th e longer-term (to 2027) th ere may be scop e for a new foodstore, th ough th e broad location of any new store sh ould be considered later and in th e ligh t of an up dated retail study wh ich identifies q ualitativ e deficiencies in conv enience p rov ision at th at time.

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