How a Math Nerd Plays Craps

Home , Betting strategy, Card counting, Craps, Gambling, NERD (sabermetrics), Table limit

About the Author HOW A MATH NERD PLAYS CRAPS

Todd Gades is a 37 year old software developer for a large financial institution. He holds a Bachelors of Science degree in computer science and a minor in mathematics from St. Cloud State University in St. Cloud, Minnesota. Todd is not a professional gambler and does not claim to make a living from playing craps. Instead, he has a unique insight into the game of craps and hopes to simplify the game as well as provide techniques for playing craps smartly so that anyone can play the game and have a good shot at coming out ahead. Todd is married to Amanda Gades and they make their home in Lakeville, MN. Todd can be reached on Twitter @YoEleven_

Table of Contents Chapter 28 : Build Your Own System ...... 74

Chapter 1 : Introduction ...... 3 Chapter 2 : Why Craps? ...... 5 Chapter 3 : The Game ...... 8 Chapter 4 : Craps Lingo ...... 12 Craps Table Layout ...... 14 Chapter 5 : The Bets ...... 15 Chapter 6 : Roll Distributions and Probability ...... 20 Chapter 7 : House Edge ...... 22 Chapter 8 : The Best Bets ...... 23 Chapter 9 : Bankroll ...... 24 Chapter 10 : The “Luck” Factor ...... 28 Chapter 11 : A Simple 6/8 Strategy ...... 29 Chapter 12 : An Expansion of the Simple 6/8 ...... 32 Chapter 13 : Betting “Units” ...... 35 Chapter 14 : Betting the Passline ...... 37 Chapter 15 : Passline + Come ...... 39 Chapter 16 : More On Place Bets ...... 41 Chapter 17 : Buying the 4 and 10 ...... 43 Chapter 18 : A Combination Strategy ...... 44 Chapter 19 : Expanding on the Combination Strategy ...... 46 Chapter 20 : Guarantee a Profit ...... 48 Chapter 21 : Other Systems ...... 51 Chapter 22 : Martingale Betting ...... 55 Chapter 23 : Fibonacci betting ...... 57 Chapter 24 : “Pressing” Strategies ...... 59 Chapter 25 : True Stories ...... 62 Chapter 26 : Etiquette ...... 69 Chapter 27 : Electronic Games ...... 72

and complex tables that end up being not-so-“basic”, and How a Math Nerd Plays Craps no shrewd ways of playing which require advanced intelligence. This can be a beatable game in the short haul, which is what most of us play, and I hope to tell you Chapter 1 : Introduction the best ways of how to do it. I’m a self-professed math nerd and proud of it. True, it doesn’t make a lot of women swoon, but it does The game of craps, I believe, is easily the most help a lot in terms of earning money, keeping money, and fun game in the casino. And aside from counting cards making money grow (no, not on trees…at least not yet). I or cheating at a game, it offers the best chance to have a degree in mathematics and have always enjoyed actually win money. The “poker boom” of recent years applying it in real life. Applying mathematics at a craps has brought a lot of attention to casino gambling. More table in order to make money while gambling seems and more states are allowing casinos as a source of more interesting to me than calculating the strength of a revenue, and more and more people are gambling in bridge or ideal insurance rates, how about you? hopes of being like the people they see on TV winning money. Let’s face it though, not everyone can be a poker In my college days pursuing a computer science professional. Very few can, actually - ditto for being an degree, I spent a lot of late nights in the computer lab expert card counter at blackjack. Not to mention the working on programming projects. One night my lab chance of being caught and banned from casinos partner and I got bored and decided to download what forever! was a new phenomenon back then - an online casino! We fired up the craps table and were completely lost as Craps, however, takes very little skill to play well - to just what the #@%& was going on. Sometimes bets very well, in fact. Played well, I believe it is the easiest won, sometimes they lost. Sometimes the same number game to consistently have the best shot at making rolled on the dice would win for a bet and sometimes it money. You can play with almost no house edge at would lose for that same bet! “WTF is going on here?” times, meaning you only need to get slightly lucky to be we thought. It must be a software error! So we decided successful. Just one or two random rolls of the dice out to figure out what the program's glitch was, looked up the of 100 in your favor can turn the tides and give YOU the rules to the game and found out the program was advantage over the casino. Even if the dice are slightly working correctly, we just didn’t understand the game! out of your favor, you can still profit from craps. There are no “basic strategy” systems to memorize with large It turned out I had found the game which intrigues me to no end. The math involved here, the probabilities,

3 the house edge, betting strategies, money management math cannot be avoided at times, but I’ll try my best to strategies, betting progression theories… there’s some keep it simple. serious depth and potential here. And it isn’t difficult to play this game well! So what is this book about? I’ve taught many of my friends the game of craps. Some play it with me, some don’t. Some win money, some don’t. But, suffice it to say, we have fun, and I’m addicted to it. I’ve been successful playing craps. I’m not going to BS you; I don’t play thousands of dollars for hours upon hours, winning tens of thousands of more dollars. I go with my wife and friends to Las Vegas and we want to hit the pool, we want to hit the buffet, we want to do some people watching. We're truly "low-rollers". For the most part, I’d say I’ve recouped about a third of all my Vegas expenses playing craps. Are there mega jackpots? No. Go waste time and money at the slots if you want a shot at that. Do I earn tons of “comps” points such that casinos are asking me to come play and giving me tons of freebies to keep me happy? No. A math nerd plays to win some money for dinners, get some free drinks while playing, maybe help pay for the airfare, and some extra “entertainment” bucks. This book isn’t about math. I won’t bore you with a bunch of formulas and advanced concepts. They might just bore and confuse you even more and turn you off to the game. Instead I’ll try to explain the math in more real-world terms. If you can count chips and do some simple adding and subtracting, you will easily be able to handle the math involved in the game of craps. The

very long time in order to eek out a small 2% or so Chapter 2 : Why Craps? advantage. The casinos normally have this advantage, and they are open 24 hours a day and always playing, which is why they are the winners in the long run. On top Why does a math nerd choose craps to play? of that, casinos are now changing the rules of blackjack Why does a math nerd gamble in a casino at all? These to dissuade counters. They will pay less than the are both great questions. All casino games are set up for traditional 3 to 2 for blackjacks and/or increase the the player to lose. Yes, all. Including craps! An extreme math nerd would avoid a casino altogether and number of decks in play - both of which are not advantageous for the player. buy 10-year treasury notes or something similarly FDIC insured. *Yawn* I can’t chastise him that much, because Another problem I have with blackjack is the those products will make you money, but seriously? shuffle. Assuming a player has “basic strategy” Booorriiing…..!! memorized and plays it strictly and every player at the table plays it strictly, the player’s destiny is essentially I’m interested in taking a risk of losing some of my determined once the shuffle and cut is complete. Those hard-earned money, though, and likely you are too if cards are not coming out randomly; they are in a set you’re reading this book. order. The shuffle itself may mix up the cards very well, Blackjack is one game that a player can get an but it is not random by any stretch of the definition. That advantage over the house if he or she is an expert player small 2% advantage comes into play assuming a player who has memorized “basic strategy” and is a perfect card goes against many shuffles, whereby you are likely to counter. Card counting is an entire book in and of itself, see a fair distribution of cards such that it “appears” but it takes months and years of practice to learn and random. play it perfectly. Then you actually have to get away with I’ve been at a blackjack table where I played it in a casino, and casinos are becoming more and more perfect basic strategy and yet lost 7 hands in a row. adept at catching card counters! Teams of counters Why? The shuffle simply was not in my favor. Had I have been able to further exploit this advantage and even gone outside the basic strategy and done something increase it. But again, very few people are able to incorrectly, I could have potentially altered the outcome perform this expert skill. Even fewer could be part of a of my hands to shift them in my favor. (Maybe I should successful counting team. have!) But you are essentially a robot if you are playing A solo card counter may be able to get away with basic strategy blackjack. There’s no creativity in playing it if he or she is good. But a card counter must play a

5 like a robot. Craps, on the other hand, is full of creativity! hundreds or possibly thousands of scenarios perfectly, (More on that soon…) you must get a machine with a favorable pay table in order to get your 98% or 99% expected payout, and then The opposite can also be true; the shuffle may be so much in your favor that it doesn’t matter much how hope you get some favorable hands dealt to you. And you play, those cards are just coming out winners for you you have to find a machine that no one else is using! over and over. This is where a counter really does his There are a lot of people in the casino who know which damage. Personally though, it really bugs me when I’m machines have the good pay tables, and those machines playing how the math and strategy dictates I should play, are the ones people flock to. but I keep losing because the deck’s order was against Live poker is a game that can be beaten, but me the entire time. again, this takes years of practice in reading people, What about slots? A math nerd would say that knowing how to tell tells (pun intended), and take slots are simply a waste of time. They require no skill advantage of weaker players, all while knowing when and are boring. They are not random either, despite you, yourself, are beat and when to get out of a hand. clever computer algorithms that make it look like the Very few people are successful in this business. numbers are random. The machines are programmed to Roulette is a fun game, but the house edges on pay out a certain amount and keep a certain amount. In the bets are very high. If you can find a wheel with only many states, this is actually a legal requirement, not a one single-green-zero slot, you’ve got better chances of casino’s choice. Over the long run every machine will coming out ahead, but realistically the bets in this game have to pay out a big jackpot or it will be breaking the have a house edge that are too high for a math nerd to gaming laws. You may, I emphasize may, be able to take seriously. track how long certain machines have gone before Craps however is a game of virtually true they’ve paid a jackpot to help determine when it may be a randomness with the dice throws, excellent bets with good time to hop on, but let’s face it, you’ve got better house edges as low as 1% or lower, and a helluvalotta things to do. If you must play slot machines, play low fun to play! Many people shy away from it because it denominations and make sure you get a free drink or two looks very complex. My hope in this book is to break while you play. down the complexity of craps into smaller parts that are How about Video Poker? This can be a lucrative simple to understand. Some people are embarrassed to game for a math nerd. But again, there is a different step up to a craps table because they don’t know how to basic strategy for every type of poker game which needs play. Or worse – they get up to a table thinking they are to be memorized and practiced. On top of playing a hot shot only to lose their shorts because they don’t

6 know how to play. I’m here to show you the good bets, the not-so-good-bets, explain the game, and tell you the best ways of how to win. Craps is a good mix of skill and luck. The luck, of course, is in the dice throws. The skill is in making good bets, knowing when to bet more, knowing when to bet less, and in managing your money wisely. Winning at gambling always feels good, no matter what game you are playing. But unlike losing at blackjack or video poker, when I lose at craps it is more a feeling of, “Oh well, the dice just weren’t rolling my way this time!” than a feeling of “It didn’t matter what I did because the cards just kept coming out against me, there’s nothing I could do about it!" or "This stupid machine! ” In craps, all that needed to have happened was for that one die to have flipped a hair more to one side and avoided a bad number for you. In blackjack, guess what? If you sat down when the deck was in a bad shuffle for you, you’re screwed and that’s final. This is why I love craps. Anyone can easily make the best bets in the house and get extremely low house edges. Craps is a very social game and you can play with friends or even make new friends at a table. All of this and it doesn’t require memorizing any complicated perfect systems, doesn’t require advanced intelligence, and doesn’t require hours and days and months and years of practice. So here it is… how I, a math nerd, plays craps…

were being thrown, and generally harass you about your Chapter 3 : The Game funny looking Minnesota driver’s license after he cards you (It happened to me, seriously!). Around the rest of the table stand the players. Which brings me to another If you already know the rules of the game, I’ll be point - why the #@%& don’t they bring chairs? But I honest, skip this chapter. The one-liners contained digress… herein aren’t that good. Go directly to chapter 6. Do not Here’s how the game works. I’m not going to pass GO. Do not collect $200. (Well, hopefully you will discuss the bets right now. Instead, you first need to on the felt). understand the flow of the game before you start Okay for those of you still left and not yet bored throwing chips on the felt. If you don’t understand how out of your mind, first thing you do - hop on the internet the game works, then you’ll lose chips like we did with and download a craps game. There are many out there, the online casino back in the college computer lab, I either online casinos (which don’t require you to play with promise. real money) or a standalone software program. “Practice Let’s say a brand new table opens up with a group makes perfect” is what my mother always said, and I of frat boys on spring break. The guys start throwing believe it to be true here as well. Once I get into talking chips around and the dice are handed to one of them by about my strategies, you’ll find being able to practice the stickman. Don’t worry about how the frat boys are them on a computer simulation game is an invaluable betting just yet, we’ll get to that. For now, I just want to asset. explain the flow of the game. But let me talk about the live game. First, there’s The person rolling the dice is called the “shooter”, one guy in a casino uniform holding a big stick. No, he and he rolls the dice to the opposite end of the table to does not whip you with it, even if you ask him to. He start a game. Think of a “game” as a series of rolls, as uses it to gather up the dice as the shooter throws ‘em. short as 1, as long as infinity, during which the shooter On each end of the table stands a dealer in an equally either wins or loses. bad and matching uniform. He’s the one taking your chips when you lose and giving you more when you win. I know what you are thinking: “Whoa math nerd! In between the dealers is the boxman, usually wearing a Infinity? Stop talking theoretical BS here, WTF does that normal business suit, thank goodness. He’s there to mean?” monitor everything, track comps, rule on any iffy-bets that A “pass” means the shooter has won a game. A some drunk slob threw out onto the table just as the dice “miss” means they’ve lost the game.

“Ok ok… so how do you win?” says ON. Third, if a new person becomes the shooter, You know in the movies or on TV, people jump up his or her first roll is always a comeout roll. Again, the and down whenever someone rolls a 7? Or the Elvis stickman will say something like, “new shooter coming line, "Let me shoot a 7 on every shot"? If it’s the first roll out!” of a new game and you toss a 7, bingo! That’s an Okay, so we covered 2, 3, 7, 11, and 12 for the immediate pass (win). Same if it’s an 11. comeout roll, what about the other numbers? This is the “Oh yeah, 7 come 11, I’ve heard that before!” meat of the game. 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, and 10 are the other possible numbers you can roll. If this happens, that The flip side though… and you’ll see number becomes the “point”. The shooter’s goal is to EVERYTHING in craps has a flip side… is craps. 2, 3, then roll that same number again which is called the and 12 are called the “craps” numbers. If the first roll of a “point” before he or she rolls a 7. Again, read this new game is craps, it’s an immediate miss (loss). paragraph one more time. It’s important you understand These rules for 2, 3, 7, 11, and 12 only apply to what the points are, and how the shooter tries to roll their the first roll of the game, called the comeout roll. It point a second time. Let’s go through a quick example… has nothing to do with a closet, it’s just the first roll of the Let’s say the comeout roll is a 7. It’s a pass! game. It’s an important term, though, so remember it! “Way to gooooo, shootah!” High fives all around! A new Read this paragraph again. Repeat it until you firmly game starts right away, because the previous one just have a solid understanding of the comeout roll. (Hint: it’s ended with a pass/win (remember I said a game could be in the boldface text!) as few as 1 roll?). Now that you know the first roll of the game is the Next comeout roll is a 2. Craps! A loser! Well… comeout roll, maybe you’re wondering, “How can you tell easy come, easy go, right? if the next roll is a comeout roll?” Let’s give this a 3rd try…. New comeout roll is 5. There are 3 ways to know if the next roll is a Okay, that’s a point number. The point is a 5. The comeout roll. First, the stickman will say it’s the comeout dealer will now take the black puck which says OFF, flip it roll just before the shooter throws the dice. Second, the over to the white side that says ON and move the puck black pucks in front of the dealers will say OFF. Look on next to the number 5. your internet craps game or software program, you will see a round black marker about the size of a hockey “So what’s this point thing mean again, math puck that either is black and says OFF or is white and nerd?”

The shooter will now roll over and over and over  Player 1 throws again: it’s an 11 (notice this is until they either roll the 5 again, in which case, the game NOT a win because it’s not the comeout roll) is another win, people jump up and down and scream  Player 1 throws again: it’s a 6! Winnah winnah 6! (oh.. so this is why there are no chairs!), or they roll a 7 The game is a pass or win! and the frat boys start swearing and bragging about how much better THEY could have done. If he does roll a 7, that’s called sevening out, and it means the game is  New game, player 1 keeps the dice and throws on lost. The dealer will flip the puck back to the OFF side the comeout roll: it’s a 3. Craps a loser! (But he and move it to the end of the table. The dice will then keeps the dice because he did not seven out) move to the next player on the left, and the whole shootin’ match starts over with a new comeout roll.  Player 1 throws another comeout roll: it’s a 10 (The point is now 10) So what does this mean for betting? Right now I’m just explaining the flow - how a game starts, how it  Player 1 throws: trying to roll another 10, but ends and how the dice move around the table. But instead it’s a 7! Seven out! The game is a miss or generally, you can make a bet that the shooter will win loss, and the dice are given to the next player their game, OR you can even bet that the shooter will lose their game. If you are correct in how you bet the game will end, you’ll win. If you’re not, you’ll lose.  New shooter… player 2: come out roll is 7! Automatic win on the 7 since it was a comeout roll! Here’s another example which will help you Cue shouting and high fives! newbies :  Player 2… a new come out roll is a 4. (The point is 4)  Player 1 is the shooter: come out roll is a 6 (The point is 6)  Player 2…shooting for the 4: It’s an 8. Nothing exciting happens here.  Player 1 throws again: trying to roll another 6… nope, it’s a 5.  Player 2 throws again… and this time it’s a 4! Winnah winnah 4! Player 2 made their point! Cue  Player 1 throws again: trying to roll a 6… nope it’s high fives once again! a 9.

Got it? That’s the flow of the game. Notice how the same shooter keeps the dice until he or she sevens out. That is when the table is wiped clean of all losing bets, winners are paid and a new shooter starts. Try a few games on your internet game or software program and you should be able to follow it after a short time. You can now step up to a table and know just what the heck is going on. But uh… you have no idea how to bet yet!

Chapter 4 : Craps Lingo Nickel : $5 chip

Quarter : $25 chip (You may ask a dealer when buying Here’s a list of terms I’ve heard and know about in to give you “nickels”, or “quarters”, or both) which you may also hear. I will use a lot of these throughout the book so hopefully these will help you out. Aces : A roll of 2. (Each die has a 1)

Shooter : The player who is throwing the dice. Ace-Deuce : A roll of 3.

Line / Front Line : Same as the Passline. No-field 5: A roll of 5. (The field loses when a 5 is rolled)

Backline : Same as Don’t Passline Forty-five: A roll of 9 where the dice show a 4 and 5.

Sometimes also called a “Colt”, as in the handgun, “Colt Seven out : When the player rolls a 7 instead of their 45”. point number. The game is considered a “loss”.

Puppy Paws : A roll of 10 where the dice show two 5’s. If Line Away : What the stickman often says when a you look, they resemble puppy paws. shooter sevens out.

Yo / Yo 11 : A roll of 11. Eleven sounds very similar to Pay the line : When the stickman often says when a Seven, so to avoid confusion, people will say Yo instead. shooter makes his or her point. The game is considered a “win”. Boxcars : A roll of 12.

Comin’ out : The next roll is a comeout roll. Hard : a roll of doubles, i.e. 2,2 or 3,3, etc.

Craps : A roll of 2, 3, or 12. Easy : a non-doubles roll, i.e. 2,6, or 4,6, etc.

Bones : Dice 3x, 4x, 5x odds : The maximum bet allowed in odds is 3-

times your bet for the 4 and 10, 4-times your bet for the 5 Checks : Same as chips

12 and 9, and 5-times your bet for the 6 and 8. Some tables one $100 chip instead of twenty $5 chips... it's easier to will have different variations but 3x, 4x, 5x is common. carry)

Color me up : Asking the dealer to count your remaining chips and give you the correct change in fewer chips. (i.e

Craps Table Layout

always want to make bets with the lowest house edges Chapter 5 : The Bets because mathematically, these are considered better than bets with high house edges. Once you've bet on the passline and a point has been established, you cannot Look at a picture of a craps table. Pretty wild, remove that bet, it is locked in place until the game has huh? Or as a Canadian would say, “Pretty wild, eh?” finished. Better yet, look at one with chips on it. Even crazier! But hey, I’m here to help. But wait, there's more! The passline unlocks the key to the best bet in the house. The only bet in the entire casino which has 0.00% house edge. No, I'm not Passline – This is the “outer ring” closest to where you joking. That's right... NO HOUSE EDGE! It's stand, and where you typically see chips directly in front appropriately named the odds bet. If you've made a bet of a player. What does it mean? It means you’re betting on the passline and a point is established, you can then that the shooter is going to pass, or win this next game. add more money to the bet and get paid TRUE ODDS on It pays “even money” which means you’ll win the same those extra chips if the point number is rolled again. You amount as your bet if you win. Remember the 7 or 11 on make this bet by putting more chips behind your passline the comeout roll? That’s the passline. Remember bet in the unmarked area of the felt. There are no making the point? That’s the passline. Remember markings on the felt for the odds bet. The casino sevening out? That’s the passline. The passline is used probably doesn’t want you to bet here because they have in many of my strategies, so you should take some time no edge. However, dealers will often ask you about to understand it. If you bet here and the shooter rolls a 7 adding odds to a passline bet. It’s their job to get more or 11 on the comeout roll you will win the same amount money on the table. as your bet. If the shooter makes the point you will win Besides having no house edge, another great your bet. But if you bet here and the shooter loses the thing about odds bets are you can also increase or game, either by throwing 2, 3, or 12 on the comeout roll, decrease your odds at any time or even taken them or by sevening out, your chips are swept away to the completely off the table. Here's an example describing dealer’s stack. NOT what a math nerd likes to see! But betting on the passline and also adding odds: (Warning, the house edge here is only 1.4%, which means that over math ahead!) time, for every $100 wagered on the passline, the casino is expected to take $1.40 in profits for themselves. That’s outstanding in terms of casino odds. You will

 $5 Passline alone : always pays even money. If Don’t Pass – Simply put, it’s the exact opposite of the the point is 4 or 10, there is a 2:1 disadvantage passline with one exception: the 12 will not win on this (meaning you should lose 2 times for every 1 time bet, it will push (meaning it doesn’t win or lose). Not you win). If the point is 5 or 9, there is a 3:2 many people bet on the don’t pass line. If they do, they disadvantage, and there is a 6:5 disadvantage if are said to be betting on the “dark side” and can be the the point is 6 or 8. target of a lot of negative chi. However, it also has a 1.4% house edge, so for a math nerd it’s actually a really

good bet. But like the red-headed stepchild, it just  $5 Passline + $10 odds : pays $5 + true odds if doesn’t get much attention. This bet is really good on a you win : “cold” table, where shooters are not making their points and are sevening out often. Like the passline, it pays even money for winning bets. If they make the 4 or 10 as the point, you'll get paid $25. ($5 pass + 2/1 x ($10 odds)) So you risked $10 more, but won $20 more! Field – This bet looks really enticing. 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, 12! Look at all those numbers! And it pays even money! If the next roll is one of these numbers, you win. If they make the 5 or 9, you'll get paid $20. ($5 pass + Otherwise, you lose. Ah… but a math nerd would do 3/2 x ($10 odds)) So you risked $10 more, but won $15 some counting here… there are 16 ways you can make more! these numbers, out of 36 total possible rolls. Uh… 16/36 is quite a bit short of even 50-50, which is what the bet pays if you win. 16 ways to win and 20 to lose!? If they make the 6 or 8, you'll get paid $17. ($5 pass + However, most casinos pay double for the 2 and 12, 6/5 x ($10 odds)) So you risked $10 more, but won $12 some will even pay triple for the 12. So that brings you more! up to as high as 19 wins for 20 losses which is better, but that is still short of 50-50. This setup with the payout double for the 2 and triple for the 12 has a house edge of Playing "double odds" in this example, $10, or twice your about 2.75%. Not bad, but we can do better. passline bet of $5, reduces the house edge down to a measly 0.6%. That’s almost nothing! Passline + odds is very powerful.

Come – This is exactly the same as the passline, except Place bets – Don’t see the word “place” on the table? you only bet here after a point has been established. I Stop looking; it isn’t there. Look at the large numbers, 4, know what you’re thinking, “Huh?” The come bet often 5, 6, 8, 9 and 10. This is where the dealer will put your confuses new craps players, but it's not that difficult to chips when you tell them you want a place bet on one of understand if you can see it in action on your online these numbers. Place bets are great because you can craps game. Within the game where the shooter make them, increase them, reduce them, or even take establishes a point for the passline, you can have them completely off the table at ANY time during the separate new mini-games for the come bet! Wild!!! It game. And unlike the passline or come “point”, the pays the same amount as the passline - even money. It number only needs to be rolled once to win on a place also pays on the 7 or 11 if it’s not a comeout roll and bet. loses on 2, 3, or 12. Otherwise the chip is moved up to So, how’s it work? Very simple - if the number you the new point number just rolled and you’ve got a new bet on is rolled before a 7, you’ll win. If the 7 shows up “come point” working outside of the passline point! As instead, you’ll lose. Beware that by default, on the you might expect, the house edge here is also 1.4%. comeout roll these bets are considered “Off”, meaning You can also add “odds” bets to come point numbers just they won’t win if the number is rolled and they won’t lose like the passline. Put the chips down on the felt and tell if the 7 shows up. You can, however, ask the dealer to the dealer you want to add odds to the bet. The dealer make your place bets “On” during a comeout roll if you will stack the extra chips on top of the come bet. Try this wish. This is one reason why the puck says On or Off. bet on your online craps game simulation and it will make You can easily tell if your place bets are working or not more sense. Again, you only make a come bet after a by looking at what the puck says. point has been established (when the puck says ON). The payouts for place bets vary on the number and this is important to understand. Most of the bets I Don’t Come – Exactly the same as the don’t pass bet, have described up until now all pay even money. But this except it’s made after a passline point is established. is where some of the complexity of craps comes into play Again, the same exception “push” rule for the 12 applies. and, unfortunately, why many people shy away from the “Push” means the bet does not win or lose, nothing game because they don’t understand all the payouts. happens. Also, it has a house edge of 1.4%. But they aren’t too difficult to understand if you look at them in pairs:  The 4 and 10 each pay $9 for every $5 wagered.

 The 5 and 9 pay $7 for every $5 wagered. put a small token on top of the bet which says "buy" to indicate it is a buy bet.  The 6 and 8 pay $7 for every $6 wagered. Yes, that’s correct, SIX dollars wagered. The place 6 and 8 should be made in six-dollar increments. Lay bets – These are the opposite of a buy bet. Again, The house edge for these bets also varies based the casino will charge you a fee for this bet. If you “lay” a on the number. 6’s and 8’s are pretty good at about number, you are hoping that the number is NOT rolled 1.5%. A math nerd loves place bets on the 6 and 8, and before a 7. A math nerd might lay the 4 and 10 after a you will see I use them extensively. The 5 and 9 are a big winning session with about a 2.5% house edge, but little worse at 4%. There are some instances when a will otherwise stay away from these. Again, ask the math nerd will place the 5 and 9, but not too often. The 4 dealer how much they will charge you to lay the 4 or 10. and 10 have a house edge of 6.67%. A math nerd Sometimes these bets are also called “no” bets, meaning NEVER places the 4 and 10 at this price…but… you want to bet against the number. “$20 no 4” would be the same as “$20 lay 4”. Again, a lay bet looks similar to

a buy bet on the table, with a token labeled "Lay" placed Buy bets – …Instead, a math nerd will BUY the 4 and 10! on top of the chips. If the right conditions exist, that is. A buy bet works the same as a place bet, except that the casino pays true odds for the bet, minus a charge or “vig”, as the casinos Big 6/8 – This works like a place bet on the 6 and 8, but call it. Think of it as a fee you are charged for the only pays even money. Do yourself a favor, pretend like privilege of having the casino pay you true odds for a you don’t see Big 6 or 8 because it is a rip-off. If you win winning bet. Always ask the dealer what they will charge a big 6 bet with $5, you win $5. Alternatively, if you win a if you buy the 4 or 10 before you make the bet. A math place bet with $6, you win $7! Place the number instead nerd will look for a casino that will charge only $1 if you and earn the extra money. Casinos put this bet on the buy the 4 or 10 for $25 and it wins. The 2:1 payout on table with big numbers and close to the players as a this bet is $50, minus the $1 charge, which is only 2% of sucker bet to players who don’t know what they’re doing. the winnings. Not a bad deal. A math nerd will NOT buy Feel free to point and laugh at someone you see betting the 5, 6, 8, or 9, as the buy bets have a higher house big 6 or big 8. A polite math nerd, though, would explain edge than the “equivalent” place 5, 6, 8 or 9. There is no to the person the difference and tell them to place the 6 box on the table for a buy bet, instead the dealer will put or 8 instead. Some casinos have eliminated the “Big 6 / your chips on the number much like a place bet and will

Big 8” bets from their tables altogether so you might not but it might really make someone’s day if that bet wins for even see this bet on the table you play at. them. The “fire” bet is another proposition bet that you Proposition bets – These bets are in the middle of the see at some tables. It is a bet you would make when a table, and the stickman usually controls these bets as new shooter first gets the dice. If they make 4 unique they are closest to him. Generally speaking, a math nerd point numbers or more, you will get paid a handsome will NEVER make a proposition bet with any seriousness sum. As you may have anticipated by now, it has a very high house edge and should really be avoided. It would in hopes of winning. These include the “hardways” bets, where you are hoping that a 4, 6, 8, or 10 is rolled as a make for a pretty fun story if you had a really hot roll and “double” pair: (2,2), (3,3), (4,4) or (5,5) before the number actually won on a “fire” bet, but you’ll probably waste a lot is rolled the “easy” way, such as 4 being rolled as (1,3) or of dollars trying to win a “fire” bet. 8 being rolled as (6,2) or (5,3). The “doubles” way is the Some tables also feature a bet called "All Small, hard way, hence the name. Hardways bets will win if you All Tall, All or Nothing At All". All Small is a bet that the roll the number the “hard” way before your roll the shooter will roll a 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 before rolling a 7. All number the “easy” way or a 7, in which case they lose. Tall is that they will roll an 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 before a 7. Other proposition bets are that the next roll will be And All or Nothing At All is that they will roll every number a 2, 3, 7, 11, or 12, or several combinations of these. EXCEPT a 7. These can be fun and have high payouts, but seriously high house edges, too. A math nerd stays Some of the combinations have fun names like “Horn”, “Hop”, “Any Craps”, “C and E” or “Any-7”. The payouts away from them. for prop bets look high (30 to 1, 15 to 1, etc), but the house edges for these bets are all very high. The only These are the bets generally accepted at a craps time a math nerd might play these bets is when he is table. Focus your attention at the passline, odds, and making a “tip” bet for a dealer or another player. Yes – place bets if you want to review this chapter again. you can make bets for other people at the table, including the dealers! If you’ve been winning, show your appreciation for the shooter or the dealer by placing one of these exotic bets for THEM. Even if you’ve been losing, consider making a simple tip bet for the dealers as you leave the table. Yes, you are throwing money away,

Notice that the 7 is the most common number Chapter 6 : Roll Distributions and which should be thrown. It can be made six different ways. That’s why it is such a key number in the game of Probability craps. In the bet descriptions in the previous chapter, many of the bets are won or lost when the 7 is rolled. No Now that I’ve talked about the bets and how the matter what one die is showing, the number 7 can game works, we need to take a look at the dice and see always be made by the other die. Notice also that really what’s going on here. We’ve all thrown dice in “pairs” of numbers have the same likelihood of showing board games since we were kids, but do you really know up. The 2 and 12. 3 and 11. 4 and 10. 5 and 9. 6 and what numbers are most likely to show up? A math nerd 8. Now it’s making sense why the bets on these pairs will quickly tell you that when throwing 2 dice, there are pay out the same amount if they hit, right? You should 36 different number combinations that can show up. 1 remember these pairs, as many of my strategies involve thru 6 on one die and 1 thru 6 on the other. 6 times 6 is betting pairs. 36. Here is a diagram showing the roll possibilities: Now, in a perfect world where the laws of Total – (first die, second die) probability are strictly obeyed, every group of 36 rolls 2 – (1, 1) would produce one and only one of every combination in 3 – (1, 2) (2, 1) the chart listed on the previous page. 4 – (1, 3) (2, 2) (3, 1) 5 – (1, 4) (2, 3) (3, 2) (4, 1) “What the heck are you talking about, math nerd?” 6 – (1, 5) (2, 4) (3, 3) (4, 2) (5, 1) I mean, if you took 2 dice and rolled them 36 times 7 – (1, 6) (2, 5) (3, 4) (4, 3) (5, 2) (6, 1) and kept track of each die, you would use every possible 8 – (2, 6) (3, 5) (4, 4) (5, 3) (6, 2) one of the combinations on the chart, without any 9 – (3, 6) (4, 5) (5, 4) (6, 3) repeats. Now I’m going to tell you that is impossible to 10 – (4, 6) (5, 5) (6, 4) 11 – (5, 6) (6, 5) do. Well, ALMOST impossible. I’d be willing to bet it’s 12 – (6, 6) never been done, although I have no proof of this. The truth is, you’re going to have a mix of everything in the previous chart. You may have rolled only three 7’s when Bookmark this page as I will refer to this chart you should have rolled six of them. You may have rolled many times throughout this book. It is very important. three 12’s when you should have only 1. Hell, you could even have thirty-six 12’s! But over the long run of hundreds and thousands of rolls, the roll distributions will

20 look pretty similar to the chart. Every roll is independent read in my strategy chapters soon. Together, these 2 of the previous one, so you cannot say that you can numbers showed up twelve times instead of the expected predict a certain number is “due” because it hasn’t ten. If I had been betting only on the 6, I’d be pretty showed up in awhile. Nor can you say other numbers disappointed, but the 6 and 8 together would have been are repeating and will certainly show up again. Sure, it’s pretty good! possible a shooter may hold the dice the same way, toss In groups of 36 rolls, you will almost always have them the same height, hit the same spot, and the same some numbers showing up more often than they numbers appear to be showing up, and more power to “should”, and some showing up less often than they the guy who can do this (I do believe I’ve seen it done “should”. There’s no way of knowing which ones these once, and I won a lot of money from that shooter), but a will be, when a “cold” number will turn “hot”, or vice math nerd knows this cannot be relied upon. versa, but know that it definitely happens. Many of the Now that I’ve said all this, consider again a group strategies in this book try to take advantage of these of 36 consecutive rolls. Try it once yourself and write temperature changes in hopes of catching cold numbers down how many times each number showed up. This is warming up or hot numbers cooling off. I like to think of an important exercise, so yes, seriously, go grab a pair of dice rolls in craps as a series of 36 rolls. Which numbers dice and do it! were hot, which numbers were cold? Of course, the past The probability says there should be five 6’s rolled. does not predict the future, but the rules of probability say that eventually, the cold numbers must heat up and the Did you get exactly five of them? It’s possible, but not likely. What if you got ten 6’s? I would certainly want to hot numbers must cool down. have been betting on that number, wouldn’t you? What if you got only one? I would hope I hadn’t been betting on it! I just did 36 rolls of my own and rolled only three 6’s instead of the expected five. Not good if I’m betting on the 6! So, if there were only three 6’s, there must have been some numbers showing up more often than they should have, right? I had the 8 appear nine times, almost twice as often as the probability says it “should” have been rolled. This is why I like to bet equivalent “pairs” of numbers, like the 6 and 8 together as you’ll

Every time you have a winning bet, think of taking Chapter 7 : House Edge the number of swim strokes upstream into the current equal to the number of dollars won. Every time you have a bet lose, take that number of swim strokes Okay I mentioned earlier about the house edge of downstream. If you’re above the dock, you’ve won various bets. What’s up with that and why is it important? money. If you’re below the dock, you’ve lost. One simple way to think of it is: it’s the amount of money Now, also consider the length of time you play. that the casino does NOT pay you for winning bets that The longer you play, the longer you have to fight that the mathematical probability says it should if it were a current. Even a slow current, if you stay in the water long perfectly "fair and square" game. Still confused? Let’s enough, will make it hard to swim back to the dock. The step outside the box for a moment and think of a river less you play, the less current you have to fight. That’s current. If you jump off a dock into a river with a flowing why a math nerd won’t play craps for hours and hours on current, you’re going to be taken downstream by the end. Most math nerds are not marathon swimmers. You moving water. The higher the percentage of house edge probably aren’t, either. that a bet carries, think of it as a faster river current, and you’ll need to swim even harder to make it back to the Typically, I play craps for about 20-30 minutes. dock. Smaller house edge bets would be a slower river Usually this is sufficient enough time for me to have won current, making it easier for you to swim back to the or lost enough to quit. More on “when to quit” later... dock. In other words, “get back to even”. The house edge is probably the most important Expanding on this river current analogy, you thing to a math nerd because all casino games, including should also think of the amount of money you are betting. craps, are set up so the casino will win over the long Let’s say you are betting a high amount, $100, on a good haul. Generally speaking, the fancier looking the bet, the bet like the passline with a house edge of only 1.4%. better it is for the casino and the worse it is for the player. Then you bet $1 on a bad proposition bet like Any-7 with The “odds” bet with no house edge isn’t even marked on a house edge of over 16%. There is a far greater weight the felt anywhere! Minimizing the house edge is vital to a assigned to the good bet than the bad bet, so in this player who wants to win money consistently. So now I’ll instance a math nerd shouldn’t yell at you for playing that start to tell you what the best bets are, how to play them, horrible Any-7 for $1. Just don’t get into the habit of and how to hopefully win on a consistent basis. playing these bad bets too often.

This strategy of passline + odds offers you the Chapter 8 : The Best Bets best chance to come out ahead in the long run and if you're going to be playing a long time, say, several hours or more, this is the only way to play. But craps is a game This should be a short chapter. The best bets are with so many options and it can be insanely fun to those that win! Yay, chapter done! Uh…okay, you want experiment with. Just passline and odds alone is great, more than that, I gotcha. A math nerd will tell you the and it’s a strategy I often play, but there are many other best bets are those with the lowest house edge, and the strategies and bets which can still give you outstanding math nerd would be correct. So that rules out ALL of the chances to consistently come out ahead as well as get proposition bets, but includes the bets like passline + you more involved with the game. Therefore, I will offer a odds (or come + odds). The don’t pass line alone also few other good strategies with low house edges that you qualifies even though not as many people play it. Place can play. But before I give you a bunch of fun strategies bets on the 6 and 8 are also some of my favorites, as you for you to try out I need to explain more about bankroll will soon find out. Other acceptable bets for a math nerd and money management which is probably more are the field, place 5/9, and buy 4/10. There you have it, important than good bets vs. bad bets. those are the only bets a math nerd will make at a craps table! A math nerd will also tell you to get the lowest possible house edge, and you should listen. That means make the minimum bet on the passline (or come) with a house edge of 1.4% and the maximum amount on the odds with 0% house edge. And you know what? He’d be right! I’ve been to a casino where the minimum passline bet was $2 and they let you bet up to 100-times that on odds. $2 on passline and $200 in odds!?! That table is a math nerd’s dream come true! That’s almost a 0% house edge for the combined bets! But let’s be realistic here, I’m not willing to bet $202 on a single number showing up instead of a 7 because that’s usually my entire bankroll for that session.

Okay… so let’s say you’re at a $5 minimum table, Chapter 9 : Bankroll what is a good amount to buy in with? This really depends on how much you plan on betting. If you are only going to bet $5 on a simple bet like the passline or If there’s only one rule in this book you should the field, you won’t need to buy in for much more than, follow it is this: Don’t gamble more than you can say, $50. If you are going to throw in some place bets, rd afford to lose. Read that sentence again. Read it a 3 maybe odds for the passline, then multiply whatever the time. Got it memorized? Beyond all the bets, house most money you expect to have out on the felt by about edges and systems I explain in this book, that one rule is 10. This should be what you buy in for. If this goes over by far the most important. I’ll repeat it because it’s so your limit of what you can afford to lose, then you either important – DON’T GAMBLE MORE THAN YOU CAN have to bet less or find a lower minimum table, or go AFFORD TO LOSE! home! There’s no mathematical basis to this 10-fold So you’ve looked at your budget and you’ve got number, but you want to make sure you can withstand a some extra money you’re willing to lose. How much do couple of bad luck hits to your bankroll and still have you play with? This answer to this first depends on the some in reserve to fight back. table minimums. My rule is – the lower the table What about when to quit? This is a good question minimum, the better. Typical table limits may be $5 - and a tough one to answer. It follows the old adage of, $2000 or $10 - $5000. The lowest minimum I’ve ever “buying stocks is a science, but selling stocks is an art seen was $2 – that was a fun table! Unless you’ve really form.” One good answer for when to quit is, quit before got a lot of extra money on hand, you won’t be betting your plane or bus leaves for home! But I hope you won’t anywhere near those upper limits. If you’re that kind of be playing THAT long. Instead, set some win goals and player, I doubt you have the free time to read this book, loss goals. A 10-20% win of your initial bankroll is anyway. certainly a reasonable win goal. That’s $10 to $20 if your Usually I end up playing at a $5 table, which buy-in was $100. It might not sound like much, but when means the lowest I can bet on the passline is $5. The you consider you are fighting a house edge - swimming lowest I can bet on place 6 or 8 is $6. One point to against that current - ANY profit, really, is good since all remember about the minimums is they do not apply to casino games are set up for you to lose. Most people the proposition bets like the hardways or any-craps. The consider a 10-20% gain in the stock market a good gain casino will gladly take even $1 on these because there’s for an entire YEAR! such a high house edge for these bets.

Also consider where you have been during the Anything in between a loss of 50% or gain of game with your bankroll. Did you lose a bunch right 100% is sort of a gray area. You really need to think away but have fought back to get even with the house? about where you’ve been in your game play and where Maybe that’s a good time to quit. Are you already up you’re at now. If you have been up 75% but now find 20% on your very first roll? Maybe that’s a good time to yourself only up 25%, a math nerd would say you should keep going; your next bet is essentially playing with the quit; your numbers are cooling off. If you were down house’s money. 40% but are now even, you may want to quit, happy to Here are the limits I try to adhere to. Notice I said have gotten back the chips you were down. It’s really all “try to”. No one is perfect, this is a fun and infectious about how you feel and whether you can leave the table game and you can get caught up in the action VERY happy. Think of the 2 examples above. Would you be easily, as you will read later in my true stories chapter. happier having been up 75% but walking away up 25% or First of all, I say quit if you have lost half of your buy-in would you be happier having fought from way down back amount. Obviously the rolls are not going your way at to even? That’s a difficult question to answer. I can this point. Swallow some pride and take a few chips with justify either scenario as being better. you away from the table and try again later. Losing is Also, I would say that 3/4ths of all craps players bad enough, but nothing is worse than leaving with are ahead at some point during their game. 3/4ths of nothing! It’s happened to me and it wasn’t a good feeling those people lose it all back, and more! Don’t be one of losing my last chip. One trick I sometimes use is to put them! If you’re ahead, pocket your profit and leave. half of the chips in my pocket and leave them there. If Even if that means you win on your very first roll, a math you buy in for $100, put $50 in your pocket and don’t nerd might just get up and leave right away. There’s touch them. That forces you to leave the table with chips certainly nothing wrong with that. I’ve done it. I’ve paid if things go badly. for a few meals that way. On the upside, also quit if you’ve doubled your Here’s yet another scenario for you to ponder and buy-in. 100% profit may seem like a wild expectation, one that I hope you will come across. Let’s say you and it is. That is why I say if you have doubled your buy- bought in for $100 and planned on making a $5 passline in, you’ve been at a very hot table, and it is probably bet with $5 in passline odds, an excellent strategy as I going to cool down. Take your profits and leave. If you will soon explain. A $100 initial buy-in makes sense for really want to stay, pocket your original buy-in plus about this strategy. Now let’s say after 30 minutes the dice half of your winnings and play with the rest. were really hot and you’ve doubled your money to $200. You could definitely quit here and I hope you would

25 seriously consider it. But let’s say you’re in the mood to Another trick that I have used and really like is keep going. Set aside $125 - $150 in your pocket. This how to separate your bankroll across several days. is your initial buy-in plus $25-$50 in profit. Don’t touch it! Typically when I travel to Las Vegas it’s over an extended This will leave you about $50-$75 left in chips to play weekend so I might have 3 or 4 days worth of gambling with. Now step up your bets. Maybe do $5 passline with in front of me. Let’s say you bring $500 to gamble with $10 in odds. Maybe add a field bet to the original for a weekend. Separate that into $100 for each of the passline + odds. You’ll have more fun cheering for more first 3 days, and maybe $200 for the last day. numbers and potentially increasing your earnings even On Day 1, use your $100 as your buy-in. Follow faster. And if the dice turn against you, which they some win/loss limits for that day as you play. If you eventually will, you still have that profit saved in your follow the loss limit, especially, you will have some pocket and you can walk away ahead even if you start money to carry over to the next day. Let’s say you had a losing. good day and you’re up $60. Take that $160 and add it Also, here's a trick that I use to help keep an eye to the $100 for Day 2. Now you’ve got $260 to buy in on my bankroll during a game. With a bunch of chips in with, and you can make some more bets, or bet more the trays in front of you, it can be difficult keeping track of money on each of your good bets. how much you have. Let’s use the example where white Maybe Day 2 didn’t go as well as planned, and chips are $1, red chips are $5, and green chips are $25. your $260 dropped to $210. Take that money and add it Typically when I play, I have mostly red chips, some onto another $100 for Day 3 for a new buy-in of $310. white chips, and some green chips. I try to use the white or green chips as separators for the red chips. I will See the pattern? As you progress throughout a stack in front of me 5 red chips, then a white chip, then 5 multi-day stay, you’ll always have some money to play red chips, then a white, etc. That makes it visually easy with. If you follow the win/loss guidelines, you’ll generally to see quickly how much money I have in front of me. have MORE money each day to play with. I would hate Each group of red chips is $25, and the separators are for you to be at a cold table your first day and lose most each $1. Or you can separate green chips with red chips or all of your bankroll and not have much to play with the if you are a little higher end player than I am. It just gives next couple of days! you a quick way to add up how much you have by Of course, you can split up your own bankroll glancing at the colored sections of chips and doing some however you want. If you’re a higher end player, you mental math. could split up $5000 into $1000-$1500 each day, for example. And maybe even take that a step further and

26 say you’re going to take your $1500 per day and split that into a $500 buy-in, 3 times per day. The possibilities are nearly endless. As I stated at the very beginning of this book, you aren’t going to win tens of thousands of dollars playing craps. Craps is not like some slot machines were you can put a few dollars in, and possibly walk out with $50,000 or more. Personally, my own bankroll for a weekend in Las Vegas is between $500 and $1000 for the entire trip. I’ve typically ended a weekend ahead anywhere from $100 to $350 (I believe was my best trip). It’s not huge winnings, that’s for sure, but I’ve been able to consistently come out ahead on all of my weekends in Las Vegas except one trip where the dice simply weren’t landing my way. And that trip I was only down about $60 over 4 days of play which isn’t too horrible. I believe the key to winning at craps is money management. The dice will do what they do. You can’t control that. But you can control how much you come to play with, what you bet on, how much you bet, and when to leave. I’ll say it again. Don’t gamble with money you can’t afford to lose. None of my strategies or systems will make you rich. They’re meant to provide a good way to play as well as you can against the house and give you a good chance to win money over a medium length period of time, say an hour or less.

You could do this all day long, keeping track of Chapter 10 : The “Luck” Factor coin flips, but you’ll get bored quickly, trust me. But the th math will eventually work out that about 1/4 of the time, you’ll flip 2 heads in a row. You will have streaks where Okay you've read about the dice and how each that happens more often than it should, and streaks when throw is random and independent from the others. I’ve it rarely happens. Now change the thought of flipping a mentioned how we need to fight the river current which is coin to tossing dice. The same rules about probability always working against us when we are betting. And it apply. You will have streaks where numbers are rolled works against us in different ways – the type of bet, the more often than they should, and streaks where they do amount of money we wager on that bet, and the total not. Look back at the 36 rolls of dice you did earlier. See amount of time we play. I concluded the last chapter that some numbers showed up more often than they saying I hope to give you a strategy which gives you a should? Others showed up fewer times than they should good chance at winning over about an hour at the table. have. If you do another series of 36 rolls and keep track (Warning! Math ahead!) of them, you’ll probably see that the totals evened out a First, though, think of the lottery, where you bet a bit from your first 36 rolls. dollar and then pick 5 or 6 numbers from about 50 ping- My craps strategies aim to hopefully take pong balls. If you get them all right, you win millions of advantage of these small short term fluctuations in how dollars. You have to be EXTREMELY lucky to do this. many times various numbers are rolled, versus how often Most mega jackpot lotteries have odds of 1 in hundreds the probabilities say they should be rolled. Using good of millions! You’re far more likely to be struck by bets and solid money management, you don’t have to get lightning. But, now think of flipping a coin and seeing if it that lucky in order to be a successful craps player. This lands heads up. It’s a 50/50 chance, right? You don’t book is titled “How a Math Nerd Plays Craps”, not how a need to be all that lucky to flip a heads. What about math nerd “always wins at” or “makes money at” craps. flipping 2 heads in a row? That’s a 1 in 4 chance. In This is important to understand because this IS gambling, other words, flip a coin twice and repeat this four times, and all of the bets (except the odds bet) do have an one of those should result in getting 2 heads. If you had advantage for the house. So these strategies are two groups where you got both heads, I would call you designed to give you the best chance at winning at a slightly lucky. If you had 3 groups where you got both game that you’re not supposed to win at. heads, I would call you very lucky. If none of the groups had both heads, then you would be slightly unlucky.

earned them for ya. Thank them, even if you are not a Chapter 11 : A Simple 6/8 Strategy believer in good karma or positive chi. It’s polite, and a lot of math nerds are polite. You will see this pattern in almost all of my systems, where you start with a large This is really the first “system” I learned, and the wager, then, after it hopefully wins, you reduce your bets only system I played on my first trip to Las Vegas. I won and pocket profits. about $300 in $7 and $14-increments that trip playing “Ok, enough rambling, math nerd! What’s the only 4 times and that’s how I became hooked on the system?” Okay okay… You wanted the best, you got the game of craps. best! Here it is : First I’m going to tell you what many people do, Let’s assume you’re at a table where the minimum and why I believe it’s wrong. People usually bet the table bet is $5. Don’t bet anything on the comeout roll. Sure, minimum and then increase their bets as they win, called you’ll miss out when the shooter bangs out a few 7s and "pressing" the bet. Their idea is to bet only a small 11s and everyone else is jumping for joy. But this amount, win, and then press the bets up to build more strategy does not call for a passline bet. After a point is off your profits, and build and build exponentially. But established, either the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 it doesn’t sooner or later that 7 will roll and they’ve now lost matter, you take $24 off your chip tray, put it down on the everything that they had “won”. The word “won” in the table in front of you and tell the dealer, “place the 6 and 8 previous sentence is in quotation marks because they for $12 each”. You can also shorten it to “Twelve dollar 6 never really won anything. Those chips were sitting out and 8” if you want. The dealer will know what you mean, on the felt in no man’s land, they were never in your chip this ain’t his first rodeo. Note that a typical buy-in amount tray. I always like to think of chips on the table as the based on my money management philosophy for this casino’s chips, not yours. They are only yours when they strategy is about $240. Okay, make it an even $250 or are in your tray or in your pocket. Also, with this type of $300 just so the dealers don’t look at you funny. betting, when the 7 hits you’re down your original minimum bet from your own stack. Not cool! Now you wait for the shooter to roll, hopefully a 6 or 8! If he does, you’ll win $7 for every $6 bet. You’ve I say, put the BIG BET OUT FIRST and THEN got $12 out there on each number so a math nerd REDUCE your bet after it wins. That’s right, pocket some calculates you’ll win $14. You don’t care which number chips after a winning wager. Those are now MY chips hits, either the 6 or the 8 as they have an equal chance of once they are in my pocket or on my chip tray and I showing up (remember I said in chapter 6 to bet pairs of earned them. Uh... actually whoever rolled the dice numbers?) and you have the same amount bet on each

29 number. You cheer for the 6 or 8. But unfortunately, if “Okay okay, I see now, I was just handed $26, the 7 does show up, it’s lights out and you just lost $24 which is $2 more than what I put out there to start with… and you take 24 swim strokes downstream! Ouch! so I’m up $2? No matter what?” Let’s be more optimistic though. Look back at the Exactly! You’ve got it! Take 26 swim strokes roll distribution chart in chapter 6. A math nerd will add upstream against that very slow river current of 1.5% up that the 6 or 8 can show up ten different ways on the which is the house edge for place bets on the 6 or 8. dice, whereas the one bad number, the 7, can show up And you’ve still got $6 out there riding on each of the 6 six ways. So you’ve got a 10 to 6 advantage of winning and 8, which you can think of as betting with the house’s on each roll, that’s 62.5% which is a decent amount over money now. Even if the shooter sevens out and you lose 50/50. the chips on the table, you’re still ahead $2 from where Here come the dice…Bang! The shooter rolled an you started. $2 might not sound like a lot, but remember, 8! Great! The dealer will take $14 off HIS stack and sort ANY profit is good in a casino. of look at you like, “uh… what now, buddy?” Tell him Let’s keep going with this system. The shooter will “Reduce my 6 and 8 to $6 each”. Now he’ll do a double- roll again, and guess what? That same 10 to 6 take, maybe even have you repeat yourself, because advantage you have over the 7 applies. The dice have most people will press winning bets up. Not a math nerd! no memory, right? Let’s say they roll a 3, nothing The dealer will do what you asked him to do and will happens. Then a 12, nothing happens. Then a 7… hand you a stack of chips. Put them in your tray. seven out! Your $12 out there is now gone. But you are ahead $2 and upstream from where you started! Think “So what just happened? How much am I up?” what would have happened if instead you started with the Let’s look - originally you put $24 out there. You minimum $6 bets on each of the 6 and 8, pressing the just won $14 with the winning roll, and you’re bringing winnings instead. You would have won $7 when the 8 back $12 of your original opening bet. That totals $26 rolled, pressed up that 8 to $12 taking back $1 for being handed back to you. Count it when the dealer yourself, and then the 7 rolled and you would have lost gives it to you! Dealers are people too, and while they everything out there. Now you’re down $11! Up $2 or rarely make mistakes, it sometimes happens. I've only down $11? It doesn’t take a math nerd to tell you which had this happen twice that I know of and the dealer was is better. happy to correct the mistake both times. But let’s continue to be optimistic. What if the shooter didn’t roll a 7 when you had $6 on the 6 and $6 on the 8? Instead, that 62.5% works in your favor again,

30 this time with another winning roll of an 8! The dealer So to summarize this system – wait for the point to takes $7 off his stack, chastises you for not betting more be established, then bet $12 on the place 6 and place 8 (but screw him!), and you say “take all my bets down”. each. If (hopefully when) you win one of these bets, take Now he’s REALLY going to chastise you for quitting. your $14 winnings and reduce your place bets to $6 Don’t be intimidated! Actually most dealers will not do each, taking another $12 back and locking in a $2 profit this, or if they do, they’re probably joking with you. I had no matter what happens next. If you’re lucky and get that one dealer at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas tell me I was second win, take that $7 in winnings and the other $12 playing smartly by taking my money down. I gave him a off the table, and you’re now up $21. There’s only one nice tip bet which won him $15 when I left the table feeling better than winning money with this system, and ahead about $50. But I digress… that’s when you’ve taken all your chips off and you see So you just won $7 on another winning 8, and I that 7 get rolled. You did not lose anything because you told you to take the remaining $12 off the table. That’s do not have any bets out there! another $19 being handed to you. You were already up There it is. That’s the system. It’s that simple, $2, now you’re got another $19, so the math nerd does and I’ve used this system more than any other system. some mental math… hey, $21! Blackjack! Uh.. wrong And that’s the truth. game, sorry. Take 19 swim strokes upstream and then set a safety net against the current.

“Huh? Safety net? You’re taking this river analogy a little far, math nerd.” Table 1 Simple 6/8 Regression - $24/$12/off Here’s what I mean – you just took all your bets off Situation Profit or Loss the table. You cannot lose any more. The river current 0 hits on the 6 or 8 - $24 isn’t even affecting you now! You’re ahead $21 for (immediate 7-out) playing intelligently and getting a little lucky, even though that 10 to 6 advantage is always in your favor. Now you 1 hit on the 6 or 8, reduce + $2 wait for the shooter to either make their point or seven bets, then 7-out out. You don’t really care. Order a White Russian from 2 hits on the 6 or 8, take + $21 the cocktail waitress. Explain what you’re doing to the all bets off cute girl you chose to stand next to, she might be wondering how you’re winning.

hot streak continues and you get a 5th hit, another $14 Chapter 12 : An Expansion of the Simple win! Should you drop down to $6 each like the basic system? Absolutely! There’s nothing wrong with that, 6/8 but now a very greedy math nerd might instead press the Okay so you’ve practiced the simple 6/8 bets up to $18 each! Who knows, maybe the shooter's regression strategy. You like it. You’ve used it. It’s got the rhythm down and is hitting that same spot every worked some of the time for you and other times it hasn’t. time. I've seen it done... honestly (although there’s no There have probably been a few times when you’ve won proof it was skill instead of luck). Does it hit again? Go your 2 hits, taken all your chips off the table, then a to $24 on each number! Why not? You're still pulling series of more 6s and 8s show up before the 7 out or the back even MORE profit each time, and winning more shooter makes the point. About now you're thinking, each time. If you get a string of these wins in a row, trust ”Dammit!, all these 6's and 8's and I'm lettin’ ‘em go with me, you'll be feeling fine, even if Tiffany still has not come nothing out there! Geez, this system is kinda back with your White Russian! I will explain a similar monotonous. $12, 6, off. $12, 6, off. (yawn) Got system like this with betting the passline in a later chapter anything ... uh... MORE?!” Hell yeah I do! along with a true story of how it worked nicely on a great hot roll. Like before, start with the normal $12 on the 6 and 8 and reduce to $6 each after the first hit, locking in your This variation gives you a little more action, but small $2 profit. After the 2nd win, though, pocket the $7 remember, you’re also in that house edge “river current” profit, but keep your other chips out there on the 6 and 8. all this time, too, and when that ugly 7 shows its head, You are still guaranteed to be up $9 even if the dirty 7 and it will, anything out there on the felt is GONE. A shows up. But now you’ll make another $7 on the 3rd hit, math nerd would rather be keeping small profits in HIS the 4th hit, etc. Let’s say you do win 4 times, where does chip tray than seeing massive unrealized gains out there that leave you? $14 + 7 + 7 + 7 for $35 in winnings and on the felt getting stacked into the dealer's stack after $12 still out there at risk on the felt - a guaranteed profit losing. Here are two tables summarizing a couple of $23! At this point, a math nerd would probably take variations of the strategy. back the other $12 and pocket it all. But let’s say you’re greedy and you like this little hot streak and want to take a little more risk.

You could, instead, press up the 6 and 8 back to $12 each and start the entire series over. Let’s say the

Table 2 Expanded 6/8 Regression - $24/$12/keep bet at $12 until Table 3 Expanded 6/8 Regression with pressing after 5 hits 7 out Situation Profit or Loss Situation Profit or Loss 0 hits on the 6 or 8 - $24 0 hits on the 6 or 8 (immediate 7- - $24 (immediate 7-out) out) 1 hit on the 6 or 8, reduce + $2 1 hit on the 6 or 8, reduce bets, + $2 bets, then 7-out then 7-out 2 hits on the 6 or 8, leave + $9 2 hits on the 6 or 8, leave bet + $9 bet alone, then 7-out alone, then 7-out 3 hits on the 6 or 8, leave + $16 3 hits on the 6 or 8, leave bet + $16 bet alone, then 7 out alone, then 7-out 4 hits on the 6 or 8, leave + $23 4 hits on the 6 or 8, leave bet + $23 bet alone, then 7 out alone, then 7-out 5 hits on the 6 or 8, press + $18 5 hits on the 6 or 8, leave bet + $30 the 6 and 8 up $6 each, then alone, then 7-out 7 out 6 hits on the 6 or 8, leave bet + $37 6 hits on the 6 or 8, press + $20 alone, then 7-out the 6 and 8 up another $6 7+ hits + $44 + $7 more each, then 7 out dollars each hit 7 hits on the 6 or 8, press + $29 the 6 and 8 up another $6 each, then 7 out 8 hits on the 6 or 8, reduce + $81 !!!!! to $12 each on 6 and 8, then 7 out

Notice how in the above tables, after you get that first hit, there are no negative numbers. This is a very key point and is really the basis for how a math nerd plays craps! You only have to sweat that first hit with your biggest bet of the series, unless you are playing the

33 expanded version where you start to press your bets after you have already pocketed plenty of earnings. In Table 3, you will see the huge jump from $29 to $81 at the end. This is when you are taking back some of your bets. It is highly unlikely you will win 8 times before you see the 7, but the point here is: when you reduce your bets, you really see your profits increase. It seems kind of backwards that when you bet less, you win more, but in this case it is true. Once you get that first hit, you must stay in profit range. Don’t increase your bets until you’ve won a lot. Or better yet, don’t increase them at all, instead REDUCE them, or take them off the table completely. Before you get overly excited about leaving bets out there and pressing them up, notice in Table 1 in the previous chapter, the simple system, you are ahead by $21 after just 2 hits and you remove your bets. Now look at Table 3 after 7 hits, you are ahead only $29. That’s only 8 dollars more than the first system, yet it took you 5 more wins to get there. That’s because you would have $48 on the felt at risk with the Table 3 system, versus nothing at risk with the Table 1 system. A math nerd would suggest you stick to the first system as you start to learn and practice the game of craps. Your bankroll will last longer, you will get to play longer, and you have less money at risk. Move to the other systems if you have already profited a lot.

cent pieces. They will instead pay you $7.00. But if you Chapter 13 : Betting “Units” put $6 in odds, a 3:2 payout is a much nicer $9. So by risking an extra $1 in odds for the point being 5 or 9, you

will win $9 instead of $7. Many dealers will even ask you For much of the rest of this book, I will often talk to put down $6 if you try to put $5. They’re actually about betting in terms of “units”. It’s all based on what watching out for you! Similarly, triple odds for the 5 and 9 the minimum bet of the table is. If the table minimum is would best be made as $16, where you will enjoy a $24 $5, then a “one unit” bet would be $5. “Two units” would payout should it hit. be $10. 3 units would be $15, etc. Remember that the So let’s go through an example - assume you bet place 6 and 8 must be made in $6 increments, so even at $5 on the passline and the point is 4, 6, 8, or 10. A single a $5 minimum table, a “one unit” bet would be $6 and two unit of odds would be $5, two units would be $10. If the units is $12 for the 6 and 8. If the table minimum is $10, point were 5 or 9, a single unit of odds would be $6 and then one unit for most bets would be $10, or $12 for two units, also called “double odds” is still $10. (Warning! place 6 and 8. 2 units is $20 or $24. You get the picture. Math ahead!) One special note about tables with a $10 minimum : Casinos will often accept a $10 bet on the place 6 or 8 Quick quiz… I say to bet $5 passline with double even though these bets should be made in $6 odds, and place 2 units each on the 6 and 8. How much increments. The payout for a $10 place on the 6 or 8 is money are you betting? Well, $5 + $10 in odds, and usually $11. A math nerd would calculate it is more place bets on the 6 and 8 are $6 per unit, so $12 on each advantageous to bet $12 instead of $10, anyway, to of those numbers. 5 + 10 + 12 + 12…That comes to $39. boost your payout to $14 if it wins. Did you get it correct? I will also refer to odds on passline or come bets in One more – You already have $5 on the passline terms of units. One unit of odds is equal to the amount of and the point is 9. Bet single odds on the passline, one the passline or come bet, with exceptions for the point unit on the 6 and 8 and one unit on the field. What is being 5 or 9. Recall that the odds pay out 3:2 for the 5 your total amount of chips on the table? $28! Did you and 9. If you bet $5 on the passline and the point is 5, remember single odds for the 9 is $6, not $5? you will want to put out $6 in odds, not $5. Why? The Discussing betting in terms of units instead of casino will cheat you out of some money, that’s why! A dollars makes sense because not everyone plays at the 3:2 payout on $5 is $7.50, but every craps table I've ever same level as others. What might be a costly bet of $25 played at, except one, does not have $2.50 chips or 50- to one person might be a normal bet for someone else.

Other people reading this book might not be betting in dollars, but some other currency. You can use your own betting level amount and multiply it by the number of units I describe to determine how much you really would be betting.

have never witnessed any animosity towards a cold Chapter 14 : Betting the Passline shooter. This is a fun, fun game all around. Okay enough nostalgia, let’s get to the betting. It’s pretty simple, throw money on the passline before the I’ve mentioned the passline carries one of the comeout roll (the puck will say OFF). If a 7 or 11 is rolled lowest house edges on the table at 1.4%. That’s a very you win, but if it’s craps (2, 3, or 12) you lose. Repeat. slow current to have to swim against! And also I’ve told people who are going to Vegas that want a remember that adding the odds bet to your passline bet “simple strategy” for craps the following : “Put 5 bucks out effectively reduces the house edge even further! This is on the passline. If the dealer slides you another chip, the most common bet people play, many times the ONLY pick it up and put it in your tray. If he takes the chip bet people will play, and a very conservative math nerd away, put another one down.” You honestly don’t really will likely do the same. Aside from the low house edge, it need to do much more than that to have a solid craps also lets you participate in the social aspect of the game strategy with a low house edge. You don’t need to know since most people are rooting for the shooter to make his about probability or what the heck is going on over the or her point, or roll some 7’s on the comeout roll. You rest of the table. No strange 7 to 6 payouts or 3 to 2 always know when that happens because people scream payouts. It’s an even-money bet, which is what most for joy! people are accustomed to seeing from other games like Few things are as infectious as being at a craps blackjack, baccarat or many roulette bets. table when everyone is betting on the passline and the Understanding the passline further, as I eluded to shooter is making their points. Everyone’s jumping up in chapter 5, add the odds bet to your passline wager to and down, making money and high-fiving each other. enhance its earning potential. “Oh waitress…?” Complete strangers who never knew each other become instant best buddies. Who knows, “Geez you’re talking like my stock broker now!” maybe you’ll see that shooter and his wife out at the pool Well, in a way it’s similar. You’re adding more or in the buffet line. You may have a new friend! I’ve shares to your position to increase the amount of money had good rolls where other players high-fived me and you’ll hopefully make. And a bonus – the odds bets pay said “you’re my hero!” And what’s more, the opposite a TRUE payout based on the probability. It’s like adding isn’t really true. If you’re losing money for the table by a dividend-paying stock to your portfolio! They, in effect, rolling bad numbers, people don’t hate you, at least I reduce the 1.4% house edge of your passline bet. So a simple passline and odds strategy might be:

On the comeout roll, bet 1 unit ($5) on the passline or come bets with odds, you'll want to find a table that and after the point is established, bet 1 unit of odds ($5 allows the most amount of odds. Keep in mind, though, for the point being a 4, 6, 8, or 10, and $6 if the point is 5 your bankroll. The more odds you use, the lower the or 9). Cheer for the point! Your bankroll will increase house edge, but the higher the variance! For a math very quickly with a hot shooter banging out a couple nerd, craps is often a battle between house edge, points for you with extra odds bets. An easy way to variance, and bankroll. remember which points have the “odd/strange” bet amounts for “odds” is they are the “odd” numbers of 5 Table 4 Passline and odds by point. 1 unit = $5 and 9. 4, 6, 8, and 10 are all even numbers. Or make it Point 4 or 10 5 or 9 6 or 8 really simple and just double your passline bet in odds or (win/loss) (win/loss) (win/loss) ask the dealer, they will help you. Passline +$5 / -$5 +$5 / -$5 +$5 / -$5 only The passline bet is really quite simple and good Passline + +$15 / -$10 +$14 / -$11 +$11 / -$10 mathematically, too. Adding odds… even better! Look at single odds the table below and see how the more odds you add to Passline + +$25 / -$15 +$20 / -$15 +$17 / -$15 your bet, the greater amount you’ll win if your number double hits. Passline alone will only pay you even money. A odds math nerd loves adding odds!

Each table or casino may have differing rules on how much in odds you are allowed to add to your passline (or come) bets. The rules are usually displayed on a placard near each dealer on the side of the table along with what the table limits are. In Las Vegas, most casinos will allow "3x, 4x, 5x" odds, which means if the point is 4 or 10, you can place up to three times your passline bet in odds. If the point is 5 or 9, you can place up to four times your passline bet in odds. And for points of 6 or 8, you can bet up to five times your passline bet in odds. Other casinos may allow 5x odds no matter what the point is, or even 10x odds! Some, however might only allow 2x odds. If you plan on playing the passline,

edge on all of these bets, which as I’ve said is pretty Chapter 15 : Passline + Come good. But now you’ve got 3 times as much money out there, so you’re risking a lot more if the 7 shows up. If

you’ve got extra money and are willing to risk it, add odds Remember my description of the come bet? “It’s to the passline and come bets increasing their power. It’s just like the passline, except you play it after the comeout what a math nerd with a sufficient bankroll would do. roll.” This can be somewhat confusing at first until you “Okay, math nerd, I’ve tried this and it’s fun, but it see it working. Try it on your craps simulation game on seems I maybe get 1 or 2 wins, then the 7 wipes the internet. On the comeout roll make a passline bet everything away and I’m still down overall!” and wait for the point to be established. Once it is, put a bet on Come and watch what happens. Let’s say the 7 Yes… this is common. The 7 may be cold for rolls right away. Your passline bet loses of course, but awhile, but it is the most common number rolled so it will the come bet wins! It’s like an insurance policy for the not stay cold very long, usually. Put another way, the 7 is passline! Every non-comeout roll for the come bet works the most likely number to heat up. How do we beat that? like comeout rolls for the passline. But if the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 Well we can’t beat that, but we can play smartly. Let’s or 10 rolls, the dealer will move your chips up to that say you successfully get 3 numbers working, and you put number and you’re cheering for that number (the come 1 unit of odds on each come bet, as well as your passline point) to roll again. And you’re still cheering for the bet. (We’ll say $5 = 1 unit) Let’s say the point is 4, and passline point, too! Of course though, once that 7 shows you also have the 5 and the 8 with come bets + single up, they’re all toast. This is a way to get multiple odds on each. The 8 hits and you are paid $21, your $10 numbers “working” for you. Remember the roll original bet plus $11 in winnings. You’ve got $21 still out distribution we tried earlier? Some numbers show up there on the passline and the 5. ($5 passline, $5 odds. more often than they should, some show up less. By $5 come bet on the 5 and $6 in odds). If the 7 shows up spreading out your bets across multiple numbers, you here, you’ll be down $10. A math nerd knows the 7 is have a better chance at catching that “hot” number. more likely to show up than either the 4 or the 5, so it may be smart to remove your odds, taking back $11 of Let’s build a strategy. On the comeout, make a your original bet. So you’ve won $11 on the 8, and have passline bet. After the point is established, make a come $10 out there in come bets which you cannot remove. If bet to get another number “working”. Then make another the 7 does show up, you’re still ahead by a dollar. And if come bet until you get 3 numbers working. Now wait for you get lucky and the 4 or 5 does show, you’ll be up even either the numbers to win or lose. There is a 1.4% house more. Sure, it would have been nice to have those odds

39 out there to collect more, but you should always be fearful of the 7. You may see some people playing strictly passline + come bets. A math nerd approves of this strategy as it has a low house edge. If you find that you really love the game like I do and you want to play for long periods of time, say, an hour or longer, this is the way to play. Bet ONLY passline + odds and/or come + odds. If you add odds to the bets, it reduces the house edge even more, but you also end up putting a lot more money out there. Even with single odds at a low $5 minimum table, you could very quickly have $40, $50, even $60 on the table which requires a substantial initial buy-in. With all of these numbers “working” for you - when that 7 shows up, you’re wiped out. Come bets are great when you get the same number rolled several times before a 7, but I have never had too much success in my personal play trying to get a lot of numbers working with multiple come bets. I have better luck with winning on bets where numbers only have to be rolled once which are the place bets…

risk, so you could potentially lose $1 if the 7 showed up Chapter 16 : More On Place Bets right away. This setup is called 22-inside, and the dealers will know what to do if you tell them “22 inside”. Look back at the roll possibilities. There are six ways to Okay back to the place bets. I gave you a couple make a 7, but 18 ways to make either the 5, 6, 8 or 9! of options for playing the 6 and 8, where you reduce a This is a 3:1 advantage over the 7 and at this point you’re larger starting bet down after winning. I firmly believe this really only risking $1 of your original money. This is is the best way to do it. I also gave you some options for sounding better now, huh? Or a Canadian might say, playing longer after locking in a profit and eventually “This is sounding better now, eh?” But I digress… pressing the 6s and 8s back up to take advantage of a It’s a pretty good advantage over the 7 at this time, hot streak in the roll distribution you may be in the middle and if you get a hit, then maybe take all the bets down of. What about the other numbers? and you’re now ahead $28! Or, take them down The only other place bets a math nerd will make incrementally - if you get that next hit, maybe take only are on the 5 and 9. These bets pay $7 for every $5 the 5 and 9 back off since they have the higher house wagered. (A true payout would be $7.50 to $5). That 50 edge and are less likely to show up compared with the 6 cents which you are not being paid will add up over time, or 8. If you want to do it this way, a math nerd would so I do not recommend playing these very often. In keep the 6 and 8 out there for more possible wins. The contrast, the $6 bet on the place 6 or 8 should pay you place 6 and 8 are mathematically better than the 5 and 9. $7.20, but actually pays you $7.00. That’s 20 cents you They show up more often and have a lower house edge. are not being paid, which is a far less percentage than But place bets on the 5 and 9 can be useful! the 50 cents for the place 5 or 9. Still though, these bets One special note about the 5 and 9, if you're on the 5 and 9 can be useful at times. betting higher amounts, say $20 or more, it might be Let’s say you’ve been doing $12 on the 6 and 8, advantageous to BUY the 5 or 9 instead of placing it. hitting and regression to $6 each, locking in $2 of profit. You'll want to ask your dealer about how they will handle They hit again and you can either come down completely the vig on a buy 5 or 9. If you are only charged the vig for $21 in profit, or let them stay there for another for a winning buy bet, go ahead and buy it instead of chance. What if, instead you placed the 5 and 9 for $5 placing it. You might see a math nerd smile at the other each along with your $6 on the 6 and 8? Where does end of the table. this leave you? Well… you had won $21 from your Back to the 6 and 8, what if you started with $18 previous 2 winners and you would have $22 out there at on the place 6 and 8? I’ve done this myself and as long

41 as you get that first hit, you have a multitude of options. 8 each and regress to $30 after one hit. Or go If one of these hits, it’s a $21 win. You can instantly immediately to $44-inside. Or even go all the way down regress down to $6 on each number to lock in a $9 profit. to the minimum $6 on the 6 and 8. In this case, you You could go to “22-inside”, which, again, puts you $1 at would have locked in $58 in profit after your first hit! You risk, but you are 3 times more likely to get a win over the have many options when you’ve locked in profit and 7 on every roll here as mentioned above. The nice thing experimenting with the place 6 and 8, 5 and 9 in different about place bets on the 5, 6, 8, and 9, is that they all betting amounts can be a very fun time at the craps table. have the same payout - $7 per unit (of $5 or $6). This makes keeping track of how much you’ve won pretty easy, it’s always a multiple of 7. And you can take the bets off at any time unlike the passline and come bets. Want a good shot at a free cheap lunch? Use 22- inside. You have a 3:1 advantage over the 7. Those are pretty good odds it will win you $7, which is enough for a combo meal at most fast food joints. How about a good shot at a free buffet? No, don’t stand there for 3 hours betting huge amounts earning “comps” points. Use 44- inside! It’s simply $10 on the place 5 and 9 and $12 place 6 and 8. One hit and you win $14. Take all your chips off and head over to the buffet line. As you can see, there are many different ways to create place bet strategies. Again, I firmly believe that you start with the 6 and 8 betting more than the table minimum, lock in a profit with 1 hit, then gradually spread things out, possibly fanning out to the 5 and 9. If you are still winning, then consider pressing the bets up 1 unit at a time, pocketing the rest as more profit. Place bets kick ass, and a math nerd loves them! If you are a higher end player, this basic principal still applies. You could initially bet, say $60 on the 6 and

inside” with “Buy $25 4/10”, I can see how this could be Chapter 17 : Buying the 4 and 10 profitable if you get that first hit. Just PUH-LEEZ take some money off the table and lock in a profit.

I have only made this $25 buy 4/10 bet in my life All this talk about 6 and 8, 5 and 9… what about once and fortunately I was lucky enough to roll the 4 on the 4 and 10? There are a couple of reasons why I don’t my very first roll. I then took both wagers off the table like to play the 4 and 10. First of all, each of them is only and proceeded to roll two more 4’s. Oh well… Another half as likely to show up as the 7. The two of them guy on the opposite side of the table was betting the combined, then, have an equal chance of showing up as same way except he pressed his bets. Now the math the 7 does. If you play them as a pair, it’s simply a coin nerd looks like the dummy, but hey, I was happy with my toss in terms of the probability of either showing up $49 win and it brought me back to even for my session instead of a 7. Look back at the roll distributions - I like after I was down! I quit after I finished rolling and was the pair of 6 and 8 best for its 10 to 6 advantage, and definitely relieved to have gotten back to even. then 5 and 9 together have an 8 to 6 advantage.

Secondly, in order to get a “good” house edge for a buy 4/10, you may need to bet a significant amount more than your other bets. If you can find a table where they will only charge you $1 for a winning buy bet of $25, this can be a fun bet. A $25 winning buy bet on the 4 or 10 will pay $50, minus the $1 charge. That’s only 2% of your winnings. If you were to buy the number for only $10, you will win $20, but they will still charge you $1, which is now 5% of your winnings. The key is to bet the most such that they will charge you the least. You will want to ask the dealer what they will do for different dollar amounts before you make a buy bet on the 4 or 10. For a math nerd, it is difficult to play a good strategy like $12 6 and 8, then have to throw $50 more out there on the 4 and 10 which are less likely to show up. If you’ve got a big bankroll and were doing an “$88-

Starting this strategy over from the beginning, if Chapter 18 : A Combination Strategy the point number becomes a 6 or 8, the place bet on that number with the 1.5% house edge does not make sense

because you can now take an odds bet on the passline Hopefully by now you’ve gotten the hang of the which has NO house edge! So in this case where 6 or 8 game. You understand the bets and why some bets are is the point, place the other number that is not the point better than others. You’ve practiced it on the internet or for 2 units and put down 2 units of odds for the passline. at home and you’re ready to move on to bigger and Now play the regression down on both the place bet and better things. Well, bigger for sure; better we hope. the passline odds and then consider adding some odds Here is a strategy using some of the best concepts from to the passline if you have locked in a profit after a couple what you’ve already read. wins. If you want to get 3 numbers working in this case Bet the passline for 1 unit and wait for a point to where you’ve got a point of 6 or 8, try the come bet! If be established. Then place the 6 and 8 for 2 units and the shooter 7’s out right away, that come bet wins, which put down single or double odds on the passline. Now, as will “cancel” the loss on the passline. Also put odds on your numbers hopefully start winning, go to the the come bet after it gets moved to a number to improve regression system with the place 6 and 8, and also its earning potential. regress your odds as well. One note about come-bet odds : odds are like “What?! – the math nerd is saying take a bet off place bets on the come out roll – they are not “ON”. If the table which has no house edge! This guy’s a quack!” you have a come bet on the 9 and double odds from the previous game and on a new comeout roll the shooter Yeah yeah yeah… I realize this goes against the rolls a 9, you will only win even money on your come bet. ultra conservative math nerd who puts out all the odds You will not win 3:2 true odds on the come-odds, the possible. More power to him, but I like to take big wins at odds are just simply returned to you. The reverse of this, the beginning and then pull money back. Maybe, just however, if they roll a 7 on the comeout, you will only MAYBE, I will make the ultra conservative math nerd a lose the flat come bet itself, you will not lose the odds, little happier by saying this – if you get your hits on the 6 they are simply handed back to you by the dealer. You and 8, take those bets off and instead place a portion of can, however, ask the dealer to turn your odds bets “ON”, your winnings back into the passline odds. Now you just like you can with place bets. cheer for the point! “Oh waitress…?” See how the passline and come counter each other? They will cancel each other out when the 7 shows

44 up. This is another reason people like making come bets when they have a passline bet. Try out this combination strategy on your own. You’ll find out that if you hit a hot streak, you’ll really pile up the winnings. But, with so many bets out on the table, that 7 will wipe you out quickly, too. A combination strategy like this will require a pretty decent sized buy-in to start with. If you’re following my money management strategy of adding $100 per day to your bankroll, a combination strategy might be good for the last day of your trip when you more likely going to have a larger buy- in.

Going back to the combo strategy, I said start with Chapter 19 : Expanding on the 2 units on your place bets and odds. If you’ve had 2 consecutive seven outs without getting any hits on your Combination Strategy numbers, reduce your next bet to only 1 unit of place bets and odds (or leave the table completely!). This table Now you’ve seen how I combine the appears to be cold so you don’t want to lose as much. passline/come + odds with place bets on the 6 and 8, Then, once you get two games in a row where you’ve regressing the bets down each time to pocket some won money and taken your bets down, you’ve locked in profits. If you were to play this strategy as I’ve explained some winnings so you are now able to go back up to 2 it without any changes for a long time, the house edge units per bet. Get 2 more complete series wins in a row? will eventually eat away at you and you WILL lose The table could be heating up! Now start with 3 units per money. How do we attempt to counter this? Vary our bet and when you win, regress down to 1, then off on bet sizes! You will certainly notice some hot and cold another win. 2 more series wins? Wow things are hot! streaks while you are at the table. Bet more during the And now you can afford to risk more! Go to 4 units per hot streaks and bet less during the cold streaks. bet, regress to 2, regress to 1, then off. Winning streaks like this are extremely rare, but if you are fortunate “Wait a sec, math nerd, you’ve already said you enough to be a part of one, get your money out there. As can’t predict the dice. You’ve also said hot streaks cool soon as you get 2 losses in a row, that’s a sign to me off and cold streaks warm up. WTF?” things are cooling off. I’d probably quit the game entirely Yes, both these things are true. There’s no at this point, ahead a good amount. But if you wish to guarantee that if the 6s and 8s haven’t been hitting for keep playing, you could restart your “series” again back you for the last 2 hours, they will all of a sudden get hot. at 2 units as your base bet. I believe, though, that you CAN tell if a table has been Of course, remember your loss limit. I said 50% of hot or cold. From this, you hope that you are in the your bankroll is a good loss limit. You may already be middle of this hot or cold streak and you adjust well below that after even a semi-cold streak. Don’t think accordingly. There’s nothing mathematic behind the that the dice are due to turn anytime soon. Also word “hope” so a purist math nerd will take offense to that remember – the 7 is the most likely number to heat up. last sentence. But let’s be realistic, this is gambling, a lot In all the systems I play, the 7 is my enemy. of it is “hope” anyhow. When I say the table is hot or cold, it is usually referring to the 7. If there are fewer 7’s being thrown,

46 then there are more of the other numbers, which hopefully you are betting on. If there are more 7’s being thrown, that means there are fewer of the other numbers being rolled, and it only takes one 7 for you to lose everything on the table. It’s worth mentioning again the amount of money you should consider for your initial buy-in. This strategy can have a pretty high maximum amount of chips on the table so you need to consider this when determining how much to buy in for. You want to be able to withstand a couple of bad hits to your bankroll if you hope to fight back and therefore you’ll need a substantial buy in to play a system like this.

we need to look at in order to guarantee a profit…dollars Chapter 20 : Guarantee a Profit won. Start with a $5 passline bet and assume the point is 4, put double odds on the passline for $10 and $12 on The title of this chapter is a little misleading. the place 6 and 8 each. You’ve just risked $39. Let’s There are no guarantees in craps. I say guarantee a profit after 1 hit, no matter how small that profit may be. say the place bet on the 8 wins for you, a nice $14 score! Now reduce the bets on the table such that you have The simple 6/8-regression is an example of this as you fewer than $14 at risk. You could take down all the place read earlier. 22-inside, then off, is another example. In a bets and leave the passline + $5 in odds. Or you could casino game that is set up for you to lose, a math nerd take all the odds off locking in more profit. Since you tries to keep as much as possible OFF the table so you cannot remove the passline bet, as an option you could are not swimming against the current more than you leave $6 on either the 6 or 8, but not both. Since I prefer necessary. Instead, have that safety net set up so you to always play the 6 and 8 as a pair, I would likely choose cannot be taken downstream. Play with the casino’s to leave the passline + $5 in odds which has a lower money as much as possible, not your own. house edge than the place 6 and 8 and it also impresses Even with my combination systems, there are a math nerd. Now wait for the point to be decided. ways to guarantee a profit after 1 hit. You really need to If the shooter 7’s out instead of making the point-4 practice this to get the hang of it so I hope you (which is twice as likely to happen in this case), start this downloaded a good simulator game like I suggested! series over again. You will have an overall $4 profit. But, You must be able to keep a tally of how much money let’s say the shooter does make the 4. You win an you’ve won so this requires quite a bit of concentration on additional $15 for a total profit of $29. your part when playing it live. Hopefully by practicing the place bets on the 6 and 8, passline or come bets and Repeat this system for the next point, placing the 6 odds, it has become almost second nature to you, and 8 for $12 each and double odds on the passline. knowing exactly how much you are winning with each hit. Again you have $39 at risk, but with your previous And remember my trick for stacking your chips, using the winnings you are gaining ground! different colors as separators? This will come in very Now let’s say this system has been working for handy for this system. you and you are ahead about $60. Now expand the I will now use dollar amounts instead of “units” in system up to 3 units of odds and place bets. You will most of these examples because that’s the bottom line have $56 or $57 at risk, depending on how much you

48 have in passline odds. This is less than the $60 profit honestly, is managing small $1 thru $4 profits. To me, you have accumulated thus far, so even if the 7 screws that’s still better than losing a lot. you over here, you are still ahead for your session. But if But, losing a lot is also possible with this system. the numbers keep coming your way you’ll be winning Got $39 out there and the 7 shows? You’re screwed. It’s even more, allowing you more options. just how the game works. Remember in my combination For example – you have the $18 place 6/8 and strategy I said reduce to single-unit bets on the 6 and 8 passline of 5 + 15 in odds. Let's say the 6 hits, giving and odds if you lose a couple in a row (or leave the table you a $21 win. Now reduce your bets on the table so you completely!)? Do this here as well. Even with a $6 place have less than $21 out there. What are your choices? bet winning you $7, removing everything except the One option is a passline bet with no odds ($5) and place passline bet will yield a $2 profit in this case. Trudging 6 and 8 for $6 each, which is an outlay of $17, locking in around in the trenches eeking out $1 or $2 profits is a lot a $4 profit. Another would be passline + single, double, better than losing your shorts. Unless you don’t like your or even triple odds. This is still locking in a profit, while shorts, of course. giving you that excellent passline + odds bet. Maybe you’ve tried this strategy on your simulator Let’s say you reduce to $6 place 6 and 8 and but you are getting points which are 6 and 8. This is remove the passline odds. Now the 8 hits! You now quite common, of course, but it throws a bit of a wrench have even more choices instead of just paper or plastic. into the numbers I listed above. Recall how I said it is Take those winnings and replace some of the passline better to take passline odds for a point of 6 or 8 instead odds? Yup! Or how about take the 6 and 8 completely of placing the number? That is still true here! Place the off and instead put the passline odds back? Yup! What “other” number for $12 and take $10 in passline odds. about taking EVERYTHING down? Yup! All are good Now make a come bet to get 3 numbers working and add choices for a math nerd. You have more freedom with double odds to it. This scenario will give you a bet total this system which makes it more fun. of $42. Keep track of these numbers and how much you Your winnings can really pile up quickly if the dice are winning if your numbers hit. Reduce your bets to lock are behaving. As long as you get that first hit, you are in a profit. golden because you can reduce your bets locking in a One way this strategy can get you into trouble is if profit. Remember, AGAIN, the 7 is the most likely the dice have been cold and you’ve reduced your bets to number to be rolled and the most likely number to “heat single units. The point is 8 so you take $5 in odds and up”. Much of the time spent in this strategy, quite place the 6 for $6 and do a come bet. Now the 6 hits so you are paid $7 and the come bet goes up to the 6 and

49 you take your passline odds off. Oops, wait a sec… you These systems are ones that I, a math nerd, have still have $10 out there but only won $7? You didn’t lock used or would use. In the next chapter are a few others in a profit! Easy solution - if you have reduced to single that I don’t personally play, but they may interest you. unit bets, don’t make a come bet to get 3 numbers Hopefully you will have success with them if you give working. Hope and pray the 6 and 8 bring you back out them a shot. of the hole and net you some chips to increase back to 2 units where you have more flexibility. Other things that can throw a wrench into this type of system are the “natural” wins and losses, which I have not written very much about. By these, I’m talking the 2, 3, 7, 11 and 12s which either win or lose your base bet on the passline or come. While the place bets and odds provide the most amount of your wins or losses, these “natural” wins and losses absolutely do affect your bottom line. Let’s say you just made a point of 4 with single odds for a payout of $15. Great! Now the next comeout roll is a 2 and you lose $5. The next comeout roll is 12 and you lose again. Now they finally establish a point of 6. You may want to adjust your bets keeping in mind you just lost $10 on the passline during the last two comeout rolls, eating away much of your last win. The opposite is also true, maybe you made the point of 4 with single odds, then won 3 more naturals of 7 or 11 for another $15! You may then want to increase your place bets in the next round, or keep the odds up longer than you may have before. Every dollar counts! There you have it, perhaps my best complex system to date.

“Okay math nerd, what’s the math on this Chapter 21 : Other Systems strategy?” Looking back at the expected roll distributions, out of 36 total rolls, you should expect to roll six 7’s for a loss Field bets! Field bets! Come getcha field bets! of $132. Your wins work out to a +$123, so the net result These can be fun to play. As explained earlier, you’re is an expected loss of $9. So if you can avoid just 1 of betting that the next roll is 2, 3, 4, 9, 10, 11, or 12. The 2 these 7’s or maybe get lucky with an extra 2 or 12 and and the 12 pay double your bet. Sometimes the 12 will you can work this system into profit territory! Remember pay triple! Look for a table that pays triple if you want to that the place bets are “OFF” on the comeout roll so if make some bets on the field. you play this system on a comeout roll, tell the dealer you Many people will make a field bet after a 5 is want the place bets “ON”! rolled. There is a craps myth that “After 5, the field’s alive”. There’s absolutely no basis for this claim, but it’s Don’t Pass/Don’t Come - Not too many people amazing how many people who never play the field will play the “don’t” side of the game. They’re the ones toss a chip out there after a 5 is rolled. Hell, even a math quietly snickering when the rest of the table lets out a nerd has done it a few times! disgusted sigh when that 7 shows up. However, there One interesting strategy using the field worth are some very valid reasons for playing this way. Like mentioning is called “anything but 7”. Okay okay, I lied the passline and come, the bet pays even money. But earlier, I have played this strategy, and it worked. I did it this time you are betting against a number that has just out of desperation, however… which is NOT a good rolled. What have I been saying all along in this book? move for a gambler. But I digress… Here’s what you do: The 7 is the most common number to be rolled and the bet $5 place 5, $6 place 6 and 8, and $5 field. As long as most likely number to “heat up”. Getting paid even the next roll is not a 7, you’ll win. If it’s a 2 you’ll win $10. money on the chances that a 7 is rolled instead of a 4? A 3, 4, 9, 10 or 11, you’ll win $5. A 5, 6, or 8, you’ll win That’s golden! A 2:1 edge over the dice! Even the 6 or $2 (remember the field bet loses). And if it’s a 12 you’ll 8, which I have been pushing you to bet this entire book, win $15 (assuming 3x payouts for the 12 on the field)! don’t stand a chance in the long run against the 7. The There’s only a 1 in 6 chance any given roll will be a 7, so don’t-6 or don’t-8 should win 6 times for every 5 times it there’s a pretty good shot this bet will work for you a few loses. times. Don’t get greedy though, if that 7 does show up, The risk on betting don’t pass or don’t come is you’re down $22. when you first make the bet on the don’t pass or don’t

51 come, you have to fight the 7 and 11 which lose. True, number, which should happen 1/3rd of the time, the 2 and 3 help offset this (the 12 does not), but you do you’re now out $15 instead of just $5! need to get “through” the don’t pass or don't come in order for you to be sitting pretty. It can be a lucrative bet, no doubt. Next : Proposition bets – Some people go crazy with these, but there’s no arguing that the math behind My previous systems you’ve just read about deal these bets is not good for the player. Still, they can add with decreasing your bets, or leaving the table entirely quite a lot of entertainment to the game, for a small price when the 7’s start showing up and taking away your of a buck here or there. Thinking back to many of the chips. Imagine switching sides to betting the "back door" times I’ve played craps, a lot of the better memories where you can also profit. It’s like shorting a stock… you actually involve these silly “bad” bets! I hit a hard 8 as a can win on the way down as well as on the way up! So point once when I had a side bet with my friends along on you should consider playing the don’t pass/come if the that trip which said, the first of us to make a point the table cools off. hard way, everyone else had to make four hardways bets Here is a bit about don’t pass/don’t come odds. If for that person. I have also done from time to time a “2- you're only occasionally playing the don't, don’t use ‘em! way hardways” bet. That means you bet $2, one dollar Here’s why… once you get that don’t number for you and one dollar for the dealers. They love it when established, you have an advantage of 2:1, 3:2 or 6:5 you make bets for them. Normally you feel like it’s you depending on the number. Getting paid even money for against the dealer, but when you’re making bets for them, that wager is awesome! By adding more money to it, you’re all on the same page and they want to win as however, and getting paid the true odds of 1:2, 2:3, or 5:6 badly as you do. “dilutes” your advantage. Here’s an example to show Many people will make an extra wager when the this: point is 4, 6, 8 or 10, that the shooter will make the point  $5 don’t pass number of 4. If it wins you are paid the hard way. Again, these bets simply have such a high $5, even money. You risk $5 to win $5. house edge that in the opinion of a math nerd, these bets should not be made. But when they do hit, you hear an  $5 don’t pass number of 4 with $10 in odds. If it extra loud eruption from a craps table and the enjoyment wins, the don’t pass bet pays $5, but the odds also you get from that might be worth the few bucks you pay $5. So you risked $15 to win $10? See why it sacrifice in this generally “bad” bet. doesn’t make sense? Plus – if they do roll the

Another thing you will often see people do, they “Straddle the point” will bet “any craps” on a comeout roll. This bet pays 7:1 This is a catchy little strategy I’ve witnessed at the if a 2, 3, or 12 is rolled on the very next roll. (True odds tables a time or two. You start by making a 1 unit are 8:1) People will put $1 on this bet as an insurance passline bet and wait for a point to be established. Then, against losing a passline bet of $5 or $10 on the comeout whatever that point ends up being, you place the roll. At first it sounds reasonable, since it protects the numbers on either side of the point number on the table passline wager, but if you do this on every comeout roll for 1 unit. For example, if the point was 6, you would over an hour or so, you’re going to lose a lot of $1 place the 5 and 8, the numbers on either side of the six. wagers compared with the protection you’ll receive If the point was 9, you would place the 8 and 10. AHH!! against the 2, 3, or 12. Place the 10!?! Noo!!! This is why I disagree with the Horn bets – Betting that the next roll is 2, 3, 11, or system. NEVER place the 4 or 10. One could modify 12. People like these, mostly because I think it’s fun to this strategy easily to not include the 4 or 10. say and the payout is big. A “horn high” bet is the same Alternatively, you could also make a $25 passline bet, thing, except there is an extra dollar in play. For then make your place bets for $25 (5/9), $24 (6/8), or instance, a “$5 horn high 11” means $2 on the 11, and $1 buy the 4 or 10 for $25. The whole idea is that the on the 2, 3, and 12. These are common on comeout rolls shooter is trying to roll the point number, but might be off as well, as it provides the hedge against craps, but an by just a bit, so surround the point number with more bets even stronger bonus for the 11, as the bettor wins their in case they are slightly off. To a math nerd, this whole passline bet AND a big $30 for the 11. Every other concept is slightly off, but if you make these bets in a number, however, means a loss. smart way, this strategy might be workable. Hop bets – These bets aren't very common but I did seen one woman make a $10 hop bet and she won, “Playing both sides” so I guess that means I have the egg on MY face, huh? Or a Canadian would say “I have the egg on my face, I have seen only one player do this but let’s think eh?” But I digress… A hop bet is simply predicting what outside the box for a minute. What is the best bet on the each die will show on the next roll. It could be anything, 1 table? The odds bet. There is no house edge on this and 6. 2 and 3. 5 and 5, etc. The bet pays 15:1 or 30:1 bet, hence no river current for you to have to swim for the “doubles” numbers. It could be a fun wager if you against. In order to make the odds bet you have to make really believe you are psychic. A math nerd stays away a passline bet. This itself has a very good house edge of from this nonsense. 1.4%. But the 7 is still a major risk here, as both your

53 passline and odds bets will lose if you see a 7 get rolled there is no house edge. We’ve already surrendered the while trying to make the point. What about that box right fact that we will lose 1 unit per 36 games for the 12 on behind the passline called the don’t passline? It wins the comeout, and the odds bets should also come out to when the shooter 7’s out. That bet will cancel the 0, so this, like every other craps strategy out there, is still passline bet. Now you are only risking your odds bet, expected to be a losing strategy in the long run. But which as I’ve said probably 100 times by now, has NO once again, think of the roll distributions over those 36 house edge! games. If you can get just slightly lucky and make 1 Let’s investigate this further. If you made both a more point than you should, this becomes a winning passline and don’t pass bet, the 7 wins for the passline system. If you can buck the 12 on the comeout, you’re and loses for the backline. Ditto for the 11. The craps always guaranteed that your passline and don’t pass will bets are the opposite, the 2 loses for the passline but cancel. The odds are your “free ticket” to chances at wins on the backline. Ditto for the 3. But the 12? Ah ha! pure profit. So there is a hole in this! The 12 loses for the passline You could also make a come and don’t come bet but does not win for the don’t passline. So no matter and then add odds to the come bet after a number is what, these two bets are guaranteed to lose you money established and it would have the same outlook at the when the 12 is rolled on the comeout. There is no passline + don’t passline bets together. Practice this chance to win money making these two bets yourself, it’s worth looking into. simultaneously by themselves. How bad is it, though? Out of 36 comeout rolls, the probability says only 1 of those should be a 12. It could be more, of course, but you can expect 1 out of 36. Remember how I’ve said the 7 is the most likely number to “heat up”? The 12 (and 2) would be the least likely to “heat up”. Okay so we’ve established we can expect to be down 1 unit over 36 comeout rolls between the passline and don’t pass in combination. Otherwise, these two bets are guaranteed to always cancel each other out. After a point is established, enter the passline odds! The expected outcome of your odds bets is always 0 since

4. Bet $40 on the passline, lose again. Now down Chapter 22 : Martingale Betting $75, double your bet. (see how this is growing quickly?)

5. Bet $80 on the passline, finally win. You win $80 First and foremost, this is a risky style of betting on your bet and had a previous loss of $75, so you and I do not condone it. Why am I even writing about it have a net gain of $5 which is the same as your then? Mostly because I claim to be a math nerd and original bet. believe that this is a popular way people play but it can lead to disaster. So what is it? Sounds promising, huh? The math is there. If you figure that the passline is a 50/50 bet (it isn’t, but it’s Betting a “Martingale” style of wagering on even- close enough for this example), you can do some extra money bets that means every time you lose a bet, you calculations. Remember my example earlier of flipping a make the same bet for twice the amount you just lost. coin and how many times would you get 2 heads in a When you finally win a bet, that win covers all your row? 1 in 4. What about 3 in a row? 1 in 8. 4 in a row? previous losses and gives you a small profit equal to 1 in 16. If you were betting on tails this entire time, you whatever your first bet was. Here’s a simple example : would be hurting, but you are probably thinking the 1. Bet $5 on the field and lose. You are down $5. chances of losing so many in a row are very bleak. As Now you double your bet : long as you can avoid that “1 in a million shot” at losing 2. Bet $10 on the field and win. You won $10, had so many in a row... you’ll be fine! Many people have previously lost $5, so now you have a $5 profit. made this mistake, and when it hits you, you will be down huge. In the previous example you were betting $80 just for a net gain of only $5! In the opinion of a math nerd, Let’s work this example out a few more times : that’s not smart. 1. Bet $5 on the passline and lose. You are down Furthermore, this strategy requires an infinite $5, double your bet. amount of money. The tables I often play at have table limits from $5 to $2000. If you started at $5 and lost 8 2. Bet $10 on the passline, lose again. Now down bets in a row, your 9th bet would be $1280 which is $15, double your bet. approaching the table limit and you would have already 3. Bet $20 on the passline, lose again. Now down lost $1275. And what if you lose that 9th bet? You $35, double your bet. cannot double your bet to $2560 because that’s over the table limit. Recall what I said about the distribution of

55 rolls, you may be stuck in that bad streak and losing everything you may have won up to this point. Martingale betting is very risky. Stick with better money management.

So here’s the strategy. Start with the first bet in Chapter 23 : Fibonacci betting the Fibonacci sequence. As you lose, move further down the sequence. If you win, move backward one number in the sequence and make that bet. If you win that one, No, Fibonacci is not a type of pasta. Although if it you'll be ahead by the first number in the series, so start were, a math nerd would probably love it! The Fibonacci the series over. You can see, this betting strategy sequence is named after an Italian mathematician and requires you to win 2 in a row to lock in your profit. has some similar properties to the risky martingale “What? 2 in a row? You just got done saying with betting, but isn’t as risky. Let me explain the sequence of the Martingale system….. wtf?” numbers and how it works. Each number in the sequence is the sum of the previous two. For example, I know, I know… But the difference with this start with 0 and 1. The next number is the sum of those system, however, is it doesn’t grow as quickly as the two, 0+1=1. Put that number at the end of the original Martingale. Remember with the Martingale, if you had sequence and now we have 0,1,1. The next number, lost 5 in a row and started with a $5 bet, you’d be down again, is the sum of the previous two, 1+1=2. Now we 5+10+20+40+80 = $155. With the Fibonacci betting, the have 0,1,1,2. Keep the sequence going, 1+2=3. 2+3 = same 5 losses in a row would put you down 5. 3+5 = 8, etc. Here is a longer Fibonacci sequence: 5+5+10+15+25 = only $60. This would be advantageous to players with smaller bankrolls. 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144. Let’s see how this would work compared with the How does this relate to betting? Take a pair of Martingale in the previous chapter. I need to continue numbers next to each other in the sequence like 5 and 8. the examples in the previous chapter one more time, but Add these together and you get 13. Now look at the sum with another win, because this system requires 2 wins. of the numbers before the 8 and you’ll find they all add up Also, I will multiply the Fibonacci series numbers by 5 to 12. If you were to bet each of these numbers in since I’m usually playing at a $5 table. sequence and keep losing, when you finally win 2 in a row, you will be ahead by whatever the sequence started 1. Bet $5 on the passline and lose. Down $5. Move with, in this case 1. Go even deeper into the series, look to the next number in the series, $5 again. at 55 and 89. These total 144. The sum of the previous 2. Bet $5 on the passline and win. You’re even, numbers is in the sequence is 143. Again if you bet $144 move back one number in the series, again 5. and won – you’d be ahead by $1. See the pattern?

3. Bet $5 on the passline and win. You’re up $5. Let’s go back to the example where you were Same net result as the Martingale. down 35, bet $25 and won so you were down just $10. nd Things will make more sense with a second Let’s say you don’t get that 2 win in a row. You bet example : $15 and lost, so now you are down $25. You march further down the series again to the $25 and let’s say you 1. Bet $5 on the passline and lose. You’re down $5. win this time. You’re even! You could now start the Next number in the sequence is 5. series over at $5 and just be glad it didn’t get any worse. 2. Bet $5 on the passline and lose again. You’re If you, instead, went backward only 1 number like the down $10. Next number in the sequence is 10. basic system says to, you would bet $15 again and if you won it, you’d be ahead $15. Personally I would say you 3. Bet $10 on the passline and lose again. You’re should have quit the series when you got even. But even down $20. Next number in the sequence is 15. more personally, I would say you should not play this 4. Bet $15 on the passline and lose again.. You’re system at all. It’s better than the Martingale, but it still down $35. Next number in the sequence is 25. requires an infinite amount of money if you work the true theory. If you’ve got that kind of money, you don’t need 5. Bet $25 on the passline and win. You’re down my help in the first place and you’re also not reading this $10. Back up one number in the sequence, 15. book. 6. Bet $15 on the passline and win. Now you’re up $5.

Again you’re at the same net result as the Martingale, but you were down at most only $35 in this example. You would have been down $75 with the Martingale. So the Fibonacci is a “little better” than the Martingale. Your bets won’t grow exponentially like they did with the Martingale. Unfortunately, you need to 2 wins to snag a profit. But do these two wins need to be in a row?

you started. So if the sequence goes win-loss, or win- Chapter 24 : “Pressing” Strategies win-loss, you’re up $5. But let’s say you hit a hot streak and the $10 bet wins. Now pull back $5 back to your

stack and press the bet to $15. Win again? Pull back This strategy sounds like it goes against what I $10 in profit and press to $20. Get the picture? Each have said throughout most of my strategies, that you time you win you’re pulling back more and more profit, should NOT press your bets, but rather REGRESS them, and increasing the bet to potentially win more. This like the basic “$12 / $6 / off” strategy on the place-6 and requires a pretty hot streak of many wins in a row to 8. I’ve said how it’s a mistake to press your bets right really do some damage, but it’s not unreasonable to see away because when you eventually lose (and you will), 3 or 4 wins in a row during your time at the table. Of you lose all, or most of your winnings, plus your original course, you can also see 3 or 4 losses in a row so you bet. But there is a way you CAN play a system that have to be careful and remember your loss limits if the involves combining regressing and pressing your bets. I dice are not rolling in your favor. touched on this when discussing the place bets where I was fortunate to be playing this strategy when I you would start at, say, 2 units on the place 6 and 8, went on a hot roll at the Excalibur in Las Vegas. I threw regress them down after a hit, and then start pressing 9 consecutive winners (both points and “natural” wins) them as you win more and more. You take back some during 45 minutes of craps bliss! That was a loud table, profit each win, while increasing the bets so that if you do believe me! Let’s see how the bets went down to see catch one of those “hot” series of rolls, you can really how much profit I made, and how much I *could* have rake in some chips. Here’s a simple system for an even- made had I not reset my bets towards the end of that run. money bet which works best on the passline, but could also be used on the field, though you’re less likely to win close to 50% of your bets on the field unlike the passline. 1st hit - Bet $10, won $10, pull back $15 to my Start with 2 units (1 unit = $5) on the passline. If it stack so I’m guaranteed +$5. wins, take the $10 in winnings and $5 of your original bet 2nd hit – Bet was $5, won $5, press the bet back to off the table, leaving $5 on the passline for the next $10 so I’m still guaranteed +$5. game. Now, even if you lose this bet, you’re still ahead rd $5. But let’s say it wins a 2nd time and the dealer slides 3 hit – Bet was $10, won $10, pull back $5, press another $5 chip your way. Now press that $5 back up to to $15, guaranteed +$10. $10. If this bet loses, you’re still ahead $5 from where

4th hit – Bet was $15, won $15, pull back $10, Here is a similar strategy for pressing place bets. press to $20, guaranteed +$20. This strategy is best played after having a winning bet 5th hit – Bet was $20, won $20, pull back $15, where you can guarantee a profit if the dirty 7 shows up. press to $25, guaranteed +$35. First, start with $18 on the place 6 and 8. (Or a higher starting amount, but for this example I’ll start with $18). 6th hit – Bet was $25, won $25. At this point I figured the end of the streak HAD to be near so I pulled After you get a win on either the 6 or 8, you’ll win back the entire $25 winnings, plus $15 of the original bet $21. Take the $21 and reduce the 6 and 8 to $6 each. Now you’ll have a $9 profit if the shooter 7’s out. But if for $40 and reset my series back at the $10 original wager. So I pulled back $40 and my guaranteed profit you get another win, that will be an additional $7. Take was now $75 and my bet was back to $10. $5 off of your stack and drop it on the table asking the dealer to “press the 6 and 8 each”. So now you’re up to th 7 hit – Bet was $10, won $10, pull back $15 so a $12 6 and 8, with a guaranteed $4 profit if they 7 out. the remaining bet is $5, guaranteed +$80. After another hit, place the 5 and 9 for $5 each, taking 8th hit – Bet was $5, won $5, press the bet back to back $4 into your stack so you’re guaranteed to be ahead $10, still guaranteed +$80. $8 at this point and you have on the table $5 on the place th 5 and 9 and $12 on the place 6 and 8. Next, if the 6 or 8 9 hit – Bet was $10, won $10, pull back $5, press hits again, press the 5 and 9 up by $5 each taking back to $15 at which point I sevened out, resulting in a profit of another $4 to your stack so you’re now up $12 in profit $85. Not too shabby! territory. But if the 5 or 9 hit for you instead, you have to If, instead of dropping back to $10 after I won on decide whether to press the 5 and 9 immediately or wait my $25 bet I had pressed it and kept pressing like before, for another hit. If you want to press right away, give the the resulting win would have been $145. But the math dealer $3 from your stack. Now you have $44-inside and nerd in me said I needed to play it a little more this is where the strategy gets really fun. conservatively since I had already gotten 6 wins in a row Remember the 5 and 9 have a 4% house edge which is rare. Hindsight is always 20/20 and I cannot be and the 6 and 8 are at 1.5% each. So it’s better to have too upset with myself for not continuing to press the bets. more money on the 6 and 8 compared with the 5 and 9 – I was thrilled with that hot roll and so was everyone else plus, they are rolled more often! From this point on, I say at the table. I think everybody but 2 people cashed out if the 5 or 9 is rolled for you, take $12 of the $14 winnings when I sevened out. Smart people… they were all ahead and press the 6 and 8 $6 for each number, taking back and QUIT WITH PROFITS! Good for them! $2 to your stack. But, if the 6 or 8 is rolled, keep the

60 entire payout for your stack and leave all remaining bets the same. If you are lucky enough to get to this point, you’re on a really hot streak! The 5 and 9 will always stay at $10 each, and are essentially a “feeder” for pressing the better 6 and 8 bets. You have a 3:1 advantage over the 7 with bets on the 5, 6, 8 and 9 so you’re sitting pretty at this point. And you’ve been locking in more and more profit the whole way. If you’ve got a really hot roll going on, you could see your place bets on the 6 and 8 climb to $30, $36, or even higher. You may end up becoming hoarse from all the screaming you’ll be doing as you collect more winnings!

for a point to be established and then dropped $24 on the Chapter 25 : True Stories table and said "Place the 6 and 8, 12 dollars each". The dealer didn't bat an eyelid and set up the bets. A few

rolls later a 6 rolled and I knew I was on my way! After As I have said playing craps is a social game. just a few minutes, I found myself ahead by probably $40 Usually several people are all winning, or losing at the or so, and at THAT point, the boxman asked for my ID. same time. Played with a group of friends, craps can be "Ah ha!", I thought to myself. Had I been losing, they a lot of fun when you are all winning. And it provides a wouldn't have cared if I was at least 21 years old, but shoulder to cry on if you all lose. Even playing at a table now that I'm winning it's a different story! I only played 4 with complete strangers, you form a bond with the other times that weekend but walked away with "big" profits players when you’re “all in the same boat”. Nearly every each time (roughly doubling my $60 initial buy-ins). time I’ve played craps live, other players at the table are When I got home I couldn’t wait to tell everyone that the rooting for the shooter, even asking their name to call out system had worked, and worked well! “Let’s go, Jim!” or whatever their name is. Here are a After this trip I taught several of my friends to play collection of more true stories I’ve been involved with at craps and I even bought a small craps table for my home craps tables. (ironically costing $300 – the same amount I had won in In my very first trip to Las Vegas with the same lab Las Vegas). We had a lot of fun times working different partner I mentioned at the beginning of this book I won systems and strategies. One of my friends was simply about $300 playing strictly the $12/$6/off regression trying to lose all the fake-money chips he had, and in strategy on the 6 and 8. The only time I strayed from this doing so, went on a streak of field winners rarely seen. was when I was rolling and was forced to make a He ended up winning every chip I had instead of losing passline bet. I was 22 years old but looked more like 14. all of his. Unfortunately, the following year in Vegas, this I had been carded a couple of times for simply same guy was the only person to lose money at a REAL WATCHING a craps game and not even standing at the table when the rest of us were winning. I’m not sure he’s table! I was pretty nervous the first time I bought in at the played a serious game of craps since. Tropicana at a $5 table, but I was confident I knew how I taught a high school friend of mine the simple 6/8 to play that system and wouldn't make a fool of myself. I strategy as well in about 10 minutes one day. He later just needed the dice to cooperate a little! I dropped $60 told me he won over $200 on a cruise ship playing that on the felt for my buy-in and was surprised when the system. How proud was I?! dealer didn't ask for my ID, but I played it cool and waited

Remember the Buy 4/10 strategy? I watched 2 and the guy was still standing there, down another $5000 guys at the Paris Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas go or so by our estimates. It was a tough night for him, crazy with buying the 4 and 10. It was about 8 in the indeed. morning when the casino was practically empty. I stood The biggest high roller I ever saw was at the MGM there and watched as these guys fought the 7 and won Grand. I knew something was up when I saw chairs at a hundreds, maybe thousands, on the 4 and 10. I did not roped off craps table. The MGM has $25,000 chips know the color-dominations of the chips they were using which are larger in diameter than a standard chip and so I cannot say for sure. The one time I finally got the bright orange. They are called “pumpkins”. Soon courage to do this bet myself for $50 at the MGM Grand, enough, an older gentleman, his wife, and another couple I also won and immediately took my bets down. started playing. The older man was playing with $5000 The first high roller I saw lose a ton of money was base bets on the passline and come. He threw out a at the Aladdin (now called Planet Hollywood). He was couple of pumpkins for odds on the 6 or 8. I was in doing what I’ve described as a good strategy - passline absolute awe at what I was seeing. Honestly, I didn’t see with come bets and full odds. That casino offered 3- a whole lot because there were security guards standing times, 4-times, and 5-times odds on the 4/10, 5/9, 6/8, a few feet away from the table and I didn’t care to put my respectively (Often shown on the table as 3x, 4x, 5x). scrawny 145 lb frame anywhere near them. But I His base bet was $100, so he was betting a total of $400, watched him play for at least half an hour; he had to have $500 and $600 per number after he had his full odds on bet hundreds of thousands of dollars. Interestingly each number. enough, I don’t recall hearing one scream of joy, or Now, one craps “myth” is that if the dice hit a chip scream of agony either. Whatever this guy might have when they land, that roll will be a 7. Again, there’s won or lost at the table really made no difference to him. absolutely no justification whatsoever for this myth, but He was just “payin’ the bills” for whatever “free this guy would probably argue otherwise. A man on the everything” (comps) he was given that weekend. I’ve opposite side of the table threw the dice towards him been at many tables where the players betting $10 or while he had every number working, all 6 of them, for $15 scream louder when they win than the guy next to $3000 total. You could tell by the high trajectory of his him whose got $400 or $500 out there. To each his toss that the dice just didn’t look right. Sure enough, own… I suppose? when they landed, chips splashed everywhere… “7 out, Knowing when to quit is, of course, very important shooter’s a loser.” The shooter lost maybe $30. The when playing craps. It is for any form of gambling! A high roller lost $3000. We came back about an hour later hard lesson I learned about when to quit happened at the

Wynn in Las Vegas. I had been playing the simple play, and it cost me. Sure, you could say that maybe I strategy of just $10 passline and $10 odds for about 30 could have won more, but remember the longer you swim mins. The table was fairly hot, and I found myself ahead in the river, the longer the current works against you and about $50 and felt it was probably a good time to quit. this is a prime example of that. The shooter had sevened out, and even though I wanted There have been a couple of other times I can to roll myself, there were 2 players ahead of me for rolling remember leaving the table with a decent profit, maybe and I wanted to leave with a decent profit. So I gathered around $50-$70 or so, but my friends kept playing. Sure up my chips and prepared to tell the dealer to “color me enough, when I return a half hour later, or I saw them the up” when I noticed that neither of the two players to my next morning, the story was "You quit at the right time, it right had bets on the passline. The dealer asked the first got cold after that, we all lost." Remember what I wrote player if he wanted to roll and he said no. Then he asked earlier? It seems that 75% of all players are ahead at the player to my right but he was confused about needing some point and 75% of them lose it all back and more! to put a bet on the passline in order to roll. I thought to myself, “oh, here’s my chance to roll!” and I put $10 down on the passline thinking the stickman would give me the Craps isn’t always glory and profit, however. I’ve dice. But, then, the guy to my right went ahead and put had a couple of rough rolls myself. At the Mirage, about $10 on the passline and the dealer gave him the dice. I 4 of my friends and I decided we would open up a new thought to myself, “No problem, I can play a little bit table where no one was playing. This is yet another longer.” He established a point and I dropped down craps myth with no basis – never open up a new table, it another $10 in odds…. “Seven out, line away…”. Grr... will be cold! Well it certainly was. We went all the way There goes $20 of my profits down the drain. around the table and not a single one of us made a point Now it was MY turn to roll, so I was excited to or rolled a 6 or 8. By the time the dice got all the way keep playing. $10 on the passline and I established a around, my entire $100 buy-in was gone. point. $10 more in odds… “Seven out, line away…”. I also lost my full buy-in of $100 in a matter of 10 Argh! Another $20 in profits down the drain! mins or so at the Palms just a couple of months after it The moral of this story is, leave when you tell opened. That time it wasn’t a “new” table being opened, I yourself you should leave! I could have left with $50 in just simply got spanked. Hmm… kinky. But no, I didn’t profits but instead only left with $10 because I wanted to enjoy it. Fortunately, these are the only 2 times I’ve lost roll. A little bit of confusion with the players on my right everything shooting dice. Needless to say, these 2 kept me at the table longer than I told myself I should

64 events prompted me to create my 50% loss rule. I’d be should be multiple of $6, so he really should have made $100 richer today if I had used that rule back then. a $600 place bet on the 6 or 8. From the “I’m Gonna Be a Big Shot” file : it was Anyway, what happened? The first roll was a hard my bachelor party and the guys and I decided to head to 8 and the dealers took a minute to figure out what a $500 a casino in Wisconsin for the weekend. My only place bet on the 8 pays. Turns out, it's $583. The dealer stipulation was that it, of course, had live craps. This cut out $583 in chips and handed it to him. Next roll - 7 promised to be a great weekend and I was going to play out, everything gone! Our jaws dropped and I felt bad for craps, and play craps big at my bachelor party! I was the guy, but only a little bit, someone that stupid needs to ready to throw down! I was happy to find $5 craps tables be spanked. which meant I could play my normal $12 6/8 strategy, or But wait, the story doesn't end there. He $5 in passline + odds. In the back of my mind, though, I immediately took out another 25 $100 bills and dropped wanted to play big, but I still fell back to my old habits of them onto the felt. The boxman counted them out and bets around $5 - $15. The first day went well and I was gave him 5 more $500 chips. Sure enough, $3000 ahead around $70. My friends kept giving me a rough across was set up for the next roll, the point was a 4. time about how I said I was going to play big but wasn’t! nd First roll - VERY FIRST ROLL! 7 out! $3000 swept away So the 2 day I said “screw it” and decided I was going into the dealer's stack. Wow. The player left the table to finally play big and upped my bets to $25 and higher. and punched the nearest chair of an open video poker You guessed it, I quickly lost all my profits and probably machine next to the craps pit. He lost $5417 in just 3 $200 more in a matter of minutes. No discipline! Yes, rolls. Unreal. it’s important!

The stupidest player I ever saw walked up to a $5 minimum bet table and dropped a wad of $100 bills onto Another buddy of mine has a knack for playing the the felt. Everyone was stunned! The boxman counted field. No, not with women, on the craps table! One year out 37 of them and then the player asked for 2 of them in Vegas he felt that every casino we passed “owed” him back! WTF? He didn't even know how much he had! $20. His strategy was walk in, put $5 on the field, win, Anyway, they gave him $3500 in chips and he spread press the $10, win again, pocket the $20 and leave. I’ll $3000 of them "across", meaning $500 buy bets on the 4 be damned if he didn’t do this at 5 or 6 casinos up and and 10, $500 place bets on the 5, 6, 8, and 9. So, why down the strip in one night. On top of this, we got to the was this extremely stupid in my opinion? Anyone who's Bellagio where the table limits minimum was $10. He played craps more than once knows the place 6 and 8 puts $10 down, it wins. He presses that $20 bet and a

65 triple-12 is rolled! There’s another $60! Luckiest SOB finally quit at $160. My friend rolled another field number I’ve ever seen. His streak finally came to an end at the right after that which would have won him $320, and then San Remo (Now the Hooters hotel and casino) following ANOTHER field winner on the following roll, that time a breakfast the next morning. Triple-12! The guy would have won $1280 if he had This same guy also went 3 for 3 on “horn high” stuck it out. We stopped giving him advice after that. In bets the first year I went to Vegas with him. I had fact, we left the casino shortly after that! coached these guys what to bet, what not to bet (i.e. the Speaking of clairvoyance, I did call one of my own horn bet), but he went off and did it anyway! And won rolls before I threw the dice one time. A young guy and each time! He even made a horn-high-11 bet for the his buddies came up to a nearly empty table and he dealers once and it, too, won! Those were some happy bought in for about $100. He was only making $5 field dealers! I shook my head in amazement while they bets each roll but the dice weren't going his way and after laughed it up. awhile he was down to his last $30. I was the shooter Going back to the field bet – my friends and I when I saw him drop his remaining stack onto the field. I seem to have a wicked winning streak at one Vegas said to him, "You probably want me to roll a 12 don't casino that we call the “No Please”. It was given this you?" He said, "I'd LOVE it if you threw a 12!" So I set name because the dealer didn’t appreciate our politeness the dice to 6 and 6 were showing at the top and said in asking to “place the 6 and 8 for $12, please”. "Here goes..." and I launched them to the other end of the table. "Craps 12!" This guy jumped for joy and Eventually he snapped and yelled “JUST SAY NUMBER! NO PLEASE!” But I digress… I, personally, have never screamed like he had just caught the winning touchdown lost money in all my weekends in Las Vegas playing at pass. That $90 win for him got him back above even. the “No Please”. I did have to fight to break even once, He even thanked me and tossed me a $5 chip! and quit as soon as I got there, but I’ve never lost there. Another field story – I was rolling at the Bellagio at Anyway, one night at the No Please, there was a a $10 minimum table. I was having a decent roll and was guy at our table who bet $5 on the field. A friend of mine up about $40 and started to increase my bets. Even rolled a field number and this guy won his bet. He though the table was full, hardly anyone was playing big pressed the $10 and it won again. He pressed the $20, it money, it was mostly minimum bettors like myself. I won again. He pressed $40, it won! By now we’re almost felt like I was getting “no respect” for having a hot starting to wonder if this guy was clairvoyant or what? roll and nobody had big money out there! Anyway, while He pressed $80, it won! By now we’re practically trying to hit a 6 or 8 I threw the dice toward the opposite BEGGING this guy to take his chips off the table! He wall and leaned forward to see if I could see the result. I

66 heard the stickman call out “Craps 12”. A player standing make another 2 or 3 points and soon enough I was up to my left jumped up and screamed “YES!” I wasn’t sure over $150 and quit the game, walked over, shook his what he was so excited about until I looked down at the hand, said thanks, and headed over to the poker room to table and he had put $200 on the field. The field paid tell my friends the crazy story. triple on that table so that was a nice $600 score for him. I touched on this next story in a previous chapter, He should have thanked me but didn’t. Again – “No but it is something that sticks out in my mind so much I Respect!” have to tell the full story. I was playing at the Flamingo Another time I was playing at the Excalibur while and had lost about $50 playing mini-baccarat. One my friends played in a poker tournament. I was by buddy of mine and I walked over to a craps table that myself at the table except for 3 or 4 other strangers. was extremely loud (which is usually a good sign) and I Things didn’t start out very well and I was quickly down bought in with the other $50 I hadn’t lost playing mini- about $40. A new shooter got the dice and things turned baccarat. Before I could even get my first bet down, the around. He made a couple of points and 6’s and 8’s for shooter who was standing right next to the stickman (so me, and soon enough I was back to just above even. As he had the shortest distance to throw) banged out a a “thank you” I threw out $1 and said to the stickman winner 6. I was disappointed I had missed it. The table “Dollar YO for the shooter”. It was a tip-bet I made for erupted! Finally settled now, I started the Passline + the guy shooting. The dice landed and it was a 6 and a odds and 6/8 strategy. The shooter established an 8, I 5! YO-Eleven! The dealer slid $15 towards the shooter put down my double odds, and he banged the 8 right and the guy said, looking confused, “What’s this?” The back on his first roll. The table erupted. He continued to stickman pointed to me and said “This gentleman made roll and roll winning numbers, most of them were 6's and that bet for you, sir.” This guy must have been in a giving 8's. I noticed he was holding the dice the same way, mood, because he took $5 and said, “$5 YO right back at throwing them at nearly the same trajectory, and hitting ya!” Now I felt appreciated too! Nice of him to return the the exact same spot on the table within about 2 inches favor, huh? Or a Canadian would say “Nice of him to every time. The dice would hop once, barely hit the wall, return the favor, eh?” But what are the odds of him and land softly. I had heard stories about people throwing another 11… what are the odds!? Okay a math “controlling” dice throws but never believed it. Now here I nerd will tell you it’s 18 to 1, and he’s right. He tossed was, either witnessing it for myself in person, or he was the bones and they landed right in front of me. Sure just simply getting very lucky. One of the dealers even enough, 6 and 5 again! Another $15 for him, and now commented “we’ve been waiting all day for a streak like $75 for me! Plus our passline bets! He continued to this.” To make a long story short, I made about $150 in

67 profits at that table before he finally sevened out. He started playing the passline, along with 6 and 8, per received quite an ovation and a lot of tips from the entire usual. I rolled an 8 and the dealer slid me $14. Just then table. He had rolled for 30 mins while I was standing someone taps me on the shoulder and says in a very there. I don’t even know how long he had been rolling sexy European accent, "Vat vas zat bet you zhoost before I got there. It was magical. made?" I look to my right and here are my dreams come Perhaps only a math nerd can appreciate this true, a gorgeous European blonde woman is asking ME humorous comment made by a stickman, at the MGM how to play craps? But of course I went into math nerd Grand. I had been playing my standard 6/8 strategy and mode and told her about my $12 on the 8, and what it doing fairly well when the dice started heating up. There pays if I roll it, just some very basics about the game. were a lot of hard 8’s being thrown. Needless to say, She stood and watched for another minute or so many people started pouring money onto the hard 8 and I explained a little more. I found out she was from proposition bet. Several people also made dealer bets Germany and I can speak a little German too, so that for the hard 8. Now EVERYONE was cheering for the was fun. But of course, a moment later I hear my wife hard 8! Then the 8’s dried up and the rolls came out say, "Hi Todd!". I turn around with that "I'm just giving something like 2, 9, 6, 5, 5, 10, 12, 6, 3, 11, 2, 5, 6, 9, 9, this gorgeous German blonde girl some advice on how to 6, 4… no 8’s! It seemed like it would never end! play craps, nothing else!" look. Haha... How did my wife Between each of these rolls the stickman was BEGGING know?! HOW DO THEY ALWAYS KNOW!? Why did the shooter to roll a hard 8. Remember, the dealers this never happen to me when I was single! It was all make money too when you bet for them! Finally the good though, the woman's equally gorgeous boyfriend stickman was getting impatient and said, “Roll a hard 8… was also there, so my wife had some eye candy to look ANY hard 8!” I lost it. Of course, there is only 1 hard 8. at, too. The girl then bought in for $10 and started Not funny? Maybe you had to be there. Maybe you have playing while I figured I'd better go elsewhere with my to be a math nerd. wife so we found some video poker to play. A half hour Another funny situation I found myself in was at later we left the casino, but the German girl was still my favorite place, the "No Please". My wife and I walked playing craps and looked to be up about $50. I hope she into the casino and I immediately went for the craps still plays! tables. She said she was going to find some video poker You can quickly create a list of your own fun true stories. Get out there and play! But play smartly! and the No Please was small enough that we knew we could easily find each other eventually without too much trouble. So after awhile the dice came to me and I

player is only allowed to place chips directly into the Chapter 26 : Etiquette betting boxes on the felt for the passline, don't passline, passline odds, don't passline odds, come, and field. Any place bets, lay bets, buy bets, and all of the proposition There are some etiquette and procedures you bets you need to put the chips onto the felt on or near the should follow while playing craps. If you’re new to the field or come boxes, and tell the dealer what you want for game, these will be important so you don’t embarrass your bet. Players are not allowed to touch chips in the yourself, someone else, or slow the game down. proposition bet area, or the 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10 boxes. Buy – in : When you are ready to step up and start Rolling : When it is your turn to be the shooter, you playing, wait until the dice have already been thrown and must make either a passline or don’t passline bet. You the stickman has collected them. You don’t want to stick do not HAVE to roll if you do not want to. The stickman your hands or arms out onto the table and have the dice will likely ask if you want to roll if you have not placed a hit them. The boxman may even call a “no roll” which will bet. You can decline and he will give the dice to the next certainly upset a few people. Once the coast is clear, put shooter. But when you DO want to roll, the stickman will your cash onto the table. Do not hand money directly to push several dice to you, perhaps 5 or 6 of them. Pick 2 the dealer, they cannot take money directly from you. of them and he will take the rest back and put them in the Put your cash on the table and the dealer will give you bowl in front of him. Only use 1 hand to touch the dice chips by sliding them to you on the felt. Again, there can and never take the dice outside of the table. Do not use be no hand-to-hand exchange of either cash or chips. two hands to “shake” the dice or they might scold you Betting : The dealers often work in one direction, because, in theory, you COULD be hiding a 2nd pair of left to right, or right to left, as they make payouts, make cheater dice in the other hand. Some strict boxmen new bets for players. Before you buy in, watch what might also scold you if you take the hand you roll with direction the dealer is working and wait until it’s your and bring it outside of the table. I had this happen to me “turn” to either take your winnings or make a new bet. once when I reached under the table for my drink with the Few things are as embarrassing is taking someone else’s hand I was using to roll. The boxman asked me to open chips. I did it once and apologized profusely to the player up my hand when I brought it back to the table before I next to me. Of course, speak clearly to the dealers so could touch the dice. I learned my lesson… they know exactly what you want your bet to be. “$12 Also, and this is more of a personal gripe of mine, dollar 6 and 8” is better than throwing chips onto the but don’t take a long time to roll. When the stickman table, pointing and saying “Those 2 numbers”. Also, the gives you the dice, that means the dealers are ready for

69 you to throw. A lot of shooters like to set the dice a Also make sure that when you do throw the dice, certain way, maybe having the two 3’s face up, that they travel the full length of the table and hit the back sometimes the 6’s face up. Some (like myself) won’t wall of the table. The wall has some egg-carton-like throw the dice if they are showing a 7. But, I witnessed material on it which cause the dice to bounce at odd one guy at Bill’s Gamblin’ Hall do something that was so angles, hopefully ensuring a “random” roll. If you do not idiotic, I probably had time to use the restroom between hit the back wall, the dealers will ask you to try and hit the each throw. Thankfully, at least he had a reasonably hot back wall. roll. But anyway, he would take each individual die, and Dealers : These guys never cease to amaze me. turn it 6 times so that each number was face-up exactly They are often dealing to 6, 7, 8 or more people at once. once. If he made a mistake and one of the numbers They have to keep track of different amounts of bets showed face up more than once, he would throw the dice belonging to different people. Occasionally they do make backwards toward the wall directly in front of him to, I mistakes so be careful to keep track of what you’re guess, “reset” the dice??? Seriously, it was ridiculous! betting on. If you’re at a busy table, there are more chips So many players think they can control the dice to roll visible than felt so things can get mixed up easily… certain numbers, but honestly, you’re throwing the dice especially if the dice hit the chips. Know what you’re probably 10 or 12 feet each time, there’s simply no betting on, and how much you should get paid if you win. controlling a dice throw over a distance that far. Oh… I’ve only had to remind a dealer 1 time when I didn’t get and the worst part was, he would throw the dice so high paid for a winning bet so they do an extremely good job. that about every other throw would go off the table, and Wait until your turn to tell the dealer what to do and don’t he would always ask for the “same dice” to be returned, bet out of turn. Also don’t throw chips out onto the table so we had to wait for the pit boss to examine the dice just before, or as the dice are being thrown. It’s each time. It really slowed down play and made an distracting to the dealers who have enough to remember otherwise good roll memorable, but for a bad reason. and think about. Be polite to them and tip them when It also bothers me when players call for the “same you are done. Either a direct tip or make a bet for them. dice” after throwing them off the table. I understand Walking away : When you’re ready to leave, some people think they’ve picked the “lucky” dice and hopefully with winnings, ask the dealer to “color you up”. want to keep them, but honestly, they’re all identical, it He’ll tell you when it’s okay to put all of your chips on the makes no difference which ones you use. If you throw felt. They might want you to wait for the next roll to them and one flies outside the table, just take another complete first. Separate your chips into stacks of like one and don’t slow down the game, please!. colors so it’s easier for them to count rather than a

70 haphazard mix of various colored chips. If you’ve used my trick to use different colored chips as separators, make sure to always undo the color scheme when coloring up. When the dealer motions for you to put your chips down, set them down and he’ll take them and give them to the boxman to count up and the dealer will give you that amount in chips back which you can take to the cashier. And don’t forget to leave a tip or make a bet for the dealers when you leave!

money as there are a multitude of legal, banking, and Chapter 27 : Electronic Games security concerns. If you find an electronic game to use for practice only with fake money, however, a math nerd is all for it! But for the electronic games found in casinos, here are my opinions: Recently, there have been some electronic craps games showing up in casinos. I have seen some where Pros : For someone who is a little shy about the players sit in a circle around a center “hopper” stepping up to a craps table because of the intimidation containing two oversized dice. Each player has a touch factor some people perceive, this type of game is more screen computer terminal in front of them where they personal and private. Also, because there are no chips make their bets. The “shooter” has a button that involved and all payouts are done electronically, there’s activates the hopper which starts vibrating and then pops virtually no risk of making an invalid bet or having an the dice up in the air and when they land, that’s what the incorrect payout. And it’s more secure because there is roll is. There is a countdown timer of about 30 seconds a small risk of theft of chips at a craps table. for players to make their bets before the shooter “rolls” Also, remember back to the odds bet for the point the dice. There is no dealer for this game, all bets are being a 5 or 9? I said that you should make a $6 odds paid electronically and a ticket is printed out when the bet in this case instead of $5 (or $16 instead of $15) due player wants to quit much like any other slot machine. to the 3:2 payout. Well, at the electronic games, the Another variety is a normal looking craps table computer will actually pay fractions of a dollar for these with a stickman who collects your cash and hands you types of bets. So a winning $5 odds bet on a point of 5 chips when you cash out. The stickman also collects the or 9, you will actually get paid $7.50 unlike in a live game dice and passes them to the shooter like a regular live where you would only be paid $7.00. This is definitely game. But, each player has a touch screen terminal in advantageous to the player. front of them like the previous example where the player It is also extremely easy to keep track of your makes his/her bets. The shooter rolls the dice just like a bankroll on an electronic machine because your balance regular game and the stickman punches the roll result is displayed on the screen. At a live table, it can be into the computer and all bets are paid electronically. difficult to keep track of how much money in chips you A third type of electronic game is an online casino, have in your tray and how much you have on the table. I like what my lab partner and I first played craps on during gave you a trick of using the different colored chips as our college days. I would shy away from these with real separators to help you quickly figure out how much you

72 have, but having your balance displayed on the screen is down, as not every roll results in a payouts, losses, or obviously superior. new bets being made by players. In this case, the live Table minimums at electronic games also seem to game is faster. be lower than at live tables. I couldn’t count the number But is faster always better? This is gambling, and of times I’ve passed by a $25 minimum table, or even the game is set up for you to lose. The longer you play, $10 tables looking for an open $5 table. I’ve seen the more rolls you see, the longer you are in that river electronic games with $3 minimums, and I’ve heard of current and the harder it is to come out ahead. So, you others with minimums as low as $1! could say a slower game is better! Especially if you’re Cons : As I’ve described throughout this book, still waiting for Tiffany to come back with your White craps is a very social game. It’s very fun and exciting to Russian! But as you read in my true stories chapter, that cheer for the shooter, watch his wife or girlfriend “blow on shooter who was taking forever, nearly always throwing the dice” for good luck. It’s fun to high-five a complete the dice off the table and demanding the same dice for stranger who had a hot roll and just made you a nice another shot really slowed down the game to the point profit or have someone come up to you and thank you for where it wasn’t enjoyable, even though I was winning! your own hot roll. These electronic games are much So it’s really up to each individual player how fast or slow quieter than a live game. There’s very little camaraderie they prefer the game to go. amongst the players who are just watching the screen in Without having any dealers to tip, you could say front of them. Sure, there’s some excitement when the the electronic game is better financially. But the dealers shooter makes his/her point, but generally speaking from are also there to help you, to explain the game or bets to what I’ve witnessed, the electronic game doesn’t seem to you, and they generally are up for some small talk and be as “fun” as the live game. can provide other assistance aside from the game. Unknown : I’ve seen some debate about the Dealers often give great tips for where to have a good speed of play at electronic games. Some say it’s faster, dinner, opinions on shows to see, or directions to the nearest restroom! So, while the electronic game may some say it’s slower. The betting and payout speeds must certainly be faster as there is no dealer who has to speed things up and eliminate betting/payout errors, I’m tend to as many as 8 players, or more. Many dealers are not sure you can say it’s actually better. extremely efficient and accurate, but they can’t compare Try out an electronic game for yourself and see to the speed of a computer. However, the electronic what you think! games all seem to have a countdown timer for players to get their bets in. So that can actually slow the game

Chapter 28 : Build Your Own System get creative with how you play them. A strict math nerd will always say, “leave them on the table, and bet as

much as you can because they reduce the overall house I’ve given you several of my favorite systems. By edge of your game.” I’m a little more conservative, no means is this a complete list. Hopefully, you have however, and like to guarantee profits when I get wins. learned about the good bets in the game: passline/come, You are free to do as you choose with how you play. odds, and the place bets. Mathematically there’s really Sometimes bad bets will win you money, as in my story no difference between some of my “strict” systems like about betting $1 on the 11 for the shooter, him winning place 6/8 with $12/$6/off, and something more random and making the same bet for me and rolling another 11. like “wait 9 rolls, then bet $12, wait for a win, take all your That was simply pure dumb luck. You may get lucky with chips off, wait another 9 rolls, bet $6, wait for a win, and some hardways bets at times, too. Just please do not take your chips off.” Statistically it’s the same since play these very often. Only if you are already ahead, every dice roll is independent of the previous rolls. You have locked in some profit, and feel like the $1 you throw don’t even have to bet the “pairs” of numbers like I have out there might make for a good story worth more than suggested in this entire book. You could do “Bet $12 on the money you’ll probably lose because it’s a bad bet for the 6, wait for a hit and take those chips down and bet $6 a math nerd. on only the 8, wait for a hit and come completely off.” In building your own system, I hope you will Again, statistically, it’s the same strategy, and this one adhere to some common principles, however. First and requires a smaller initial bet out of your chip tray, too. foremost, if you’re losing, quit. Live to play another day. You’re only losing half as much as I am when that Second of all, pocket some profit, even if you make that shooter 7’s out before winning for you. But you only have profit from bad bets. This game is set up for you to lose half the chance of hitting the 8 versus hitting either the 6 so when you do win, don’t give it back! Third, use good OR the 8. Remember earlier in this book when I rolled bets with low house edges. These will give you the most the dice 36 times and got very few 6s but a lot of 8s? return on your bet and give you the best chance at That’s why I like to bet pairs of numbers even if you are making money. Fourth, you cannot control the dice. risking more money on each roll. They will do whatever they do. You ARE gambling and So you can see there is really a lot of freedom the longer you play, the greater the chances that you will here, especially with the place bets because you can lose. Every strategy and bet I have talked about in this increase or decrease them anytime you want. You also book will lose in the long run, so don’t stand there for have that same freedom with your odds bets. You can hours and hours expecting to crawl your way back to

74 even, or that your hot streak will last forever. Even the streak of 9 consecutive passline winners I rolled lasted only about 45 minutes. Lastly, have fun! This is the most exciting game in the casino and I guarantee you that you will have some great stories to tell friends. Teach them how to play because playing this game with friends is an absolute blast. Good luck!