Monthly Report Number 10/02 18 October 2002

Highlights Additional food aid pledges improved the food > Additional pledges of nearly 165,000 MT of emergency food aid were made in aid pipeline but a significant shortfall remains in late September/early October 2002. These pledges have improved the food aid pipeline through October but November and December approximately 108,000 MT of food assistance has yet to be obtained to cover needs approximately 273,000 MT of emergency food assistance between needs in November and December. October and December 2002. Of this, nearly 165,000 MT of emergency food aid is With current level of food aid needs expected to increase substantially in the available from recent pledges by donors (Figure 1). This has greatly improved the food first half of 2003, additional pledges before aid pipeline for September and October, thereby permitting the immediate draw down the end of the year are critically and distribution of a comparable volume of food from the Emergency Food Security important. Reserve (EFSR) until the newly pledged food aid arrives. However, outstanding > Nutrition survey results for West requirements of 108,000 MT of food aid need to be pledged quickly in order to prevent a Hararghe indicate Global Acute Malnutrition rate of about 8 percent in the break in the pipeline in November and December. The current level of food aid needs is highlands and wet midlands and 15 expected to persist and even increase substantially in the first half of 2003. percent in the lowlands and dry midlands. In the presence of aggravating factors, the survey results are considered “poor” and It is to be recalled that inadequate food aid distribution during the first half of the year “critical,” respectively, per the Ethiopian has contributed to increased food insecurity currently being witnessed in many areas. Emergency Nutrition Guidelines.

> Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) contingency Figure 1. Availability of Food Aid in 2002 as of 10 October 2002 planning figures indicate that 10 to 14 million Ethiopians will need emergency 80 180 food assistance during some part of 2003 Cereal Gap due to poor meher (main) harvest prospects and rising food insecurity in 70 Veg Oil & Blended Food Gap 160 pastoral areas.

> Near to above-average meher rainfall in Cereal Available as % of 140 Tigray and Afar Regions in September is 60 Needs expected to improve crop and pasture Veg Oil & Blended Food conditions marginally but precipitation Available as % of Needs 120 remained deficient elsewhere in the 50 country. 100 > According to a report by the Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), poor to 40 very poor forage conditions persist in Afar 80 Region and central and eastern parts of Somali Region. However, the situation 30 could improve in the Somali Region with 60 the expected arrival of the deyr season rains that normally fall between late Food Aid Gap ('000 MT) 20 September through November. 40

> With the approach of the meher (main season) harvest, cereal prices started to 10 20 decline in most markets and stabilized in Food Aid Availability as % of Total Needs others. However, cereal prices are likely to increase earlier than normal in 2003 0 0 due to the expected below average meher harvest, particularly for long cycle crops, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec such as, maize and sorghum, whose harvests are expected to decline Source: WFP, DPPC, press releases by US Embassy and SC-UK. significantly this year. Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia.

The Ethiopia Network on Food Security is an initiative by USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) and the EU’s Local Food Security Unit (EU-LFSU) to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information.

Contributors to this report include the National Early Warning Working Group, whose members include the following organizations: the Disaster Preparedness and Prevention Committee (DPPC), Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE), European Union Local Food Security Unit (EU-LFSU), National Meteorological Service Agency (NMSA), Save the Children UK (SC-UK), World Food Program (WFP), USAID’s Famine Early Warning Network (FEWS NET). In addition, this report uses satellite data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and US Geological Survey EROS Data Center (USGS). ETHIOPIA NETWORK ON FOOD SECURITY — MONTHLY REPORT: 18 October 2002 PAGE 2 Surveys find very poor nutritional status among children in the dry midlands and lowlands of West Hararghe In response to the emerging food crisis in , a joint (DPPC, WFP, CARE, SC-UK) nutrition survey was carried out 20 to 30 September 2002. A 30 by 30 cluster sample survey was undertaken in two survey areas: (1) highlands and wet midlands (2) dry midlands and lowlands. Using height as a proxy indicator for age, all children between 65 cm and 110 cm were included in the survey sample frame.

Table 1. Nutrition Survey Results from West Hararghe Zone of Oromiya Region Sample Global Acute Malnutrition Severe Acute Malnutrition Presence of Areas Surveyed Size (GAM)1 (SAM)2 Oedema3 Survey Area 1 938 7.9 % 1.6 % 11 (1.2%) CI: (6.4 –10.0%) CI: (0.9 – 2.7%) CI: (0.6 - 2.2%) Survey Area 2 933 15.1 % 3.6% 26 (2.8%) CI: (12.9 - 17.6%) CI: (2.6% - 5.1%) CI: (1.9 –4.1%)

Source: Summary Report of the West Hararghe Nutrition Survey (8 October 2002). Notes: 1/Children with oedema are considered acutely malnourished and are included in the GAM and SAM figures above. They are also reported in a separate column in the above table. 2/Survey Area 1: Highland and wet midland areas of , Guba Koricha, Kunni, , , Daro Lebu, and Bokie woredas. 3/Survey Area 2: Dry midland and lowland areas of Anchar, Guba Koricha, Habro, Daro Lebu, and Bokie woredsa, and all areas of Miesso woreda. 4/CI=Confidence Interval: the true prevalence falls within the range specified.

The Global Acute Malnutrition rate (GAM) in the highlands and wet midlands is 7.9 percent (Table 1). According to the Ethiopian Emergency Nutrition Guidelines, a GAM of 5 to 9 percent is classified as “poor” in the presence of aggravating factors. In some parts of the highlands and wet midlands, aggravating factors included low food access due to poor crop harvests, poor cash crop performance and low vaccination coverage.

The GAM rate in the lowlands and dry midlands is 15.1 percent, considered “critical” per the Emergency Nutrition Guidelines in the presence of aggravating factors. The aggravating factors in the second survey area included poor access to food (failure of long cycle crops, failure of bridging harvests of secondary crops such as sweet potatoes, poor access to livestock products and low livestock market value), low vaccination coverage, high incidence of diarrhea diseases and several reported cases of malaria/fever. High prevalence of Vitamin A deficiency disease was also detected in the surveyed areas.

The relatively poor nutritional status among children in the dry midlands and lowlands is consistent with earlier reports that mid and low altitude areas were the most affected by the drought condition in 2002. However, the survey results mask pockets with significantly higher prevalence of malnutrition in both survey areas.

Major recommendations of the joint nutrition assessment team are: · Continued distribution of general rations (grain and oil) in all lowland and dry midland and pockets of the highland and wet midlands for the next 9 to 12 months; · Targeted distribution of supplementary (blended) food such as Famix/CSB as take- home dry rations for lowland/dry midland areas for the next 6 months; · Provision of Vitamin A along with measles immunization in all drought-affected areas in the zone; · Capacity building of local health institutions;

1 GAM is the percentage of children with moderate and severe malnutrition i.e. their weight-for-height ratio more than 2 standard deviations below the average of the reference population and oedema.

2 SAM is the percentage of children whose weight-for-height is more than 3 standard deviations below the average of the reference population and oedema.

3 Oedema: the presence of excessive amounts of fluid in the intercellular tissue. It is the key clinical sign of kwashiorkor, a severe form of protein-energy malnutrition, carrying a very high mortality risk in young children.

ETHIOPIA NETWORK ON FOOD SECURITY — MONTHLY REPORT: 18 October 2002 PAGE 3

· Training of community leaders at the grass roots level and woreda officials in the use of DPPC Guidelines on food aid targeting and monitoring; and · Close monitoring of the situation.

DPPC contingency planning figures for 2003 indicate 10 to 14 million people in need of emergency food assistance in Ethiopia

On 1 October, the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) launched a food aid appeal to donors for the October-December 2002 period. The Appeal also provided various scenarios of the likely magnitude of emergency food assistance requirements in 2003 based on the results of multi-agency assessments carried out in late August in drought affected parts of the country (Table 2).

Table 2. Contingency Planning Figures for Food Aid Needs in Ethiopia in 2003 Number of Food Aid Requirements (‘000 MT) Scenarios Beneficiaries Vegetable Blended Cereals TOTAL (Millions) Oil Food Best Case 6.8 850 22 65 937 Mid Case 10.2 1,341 34 101 1,476 Worst Case 14.3 1,992 46 139 2,177

Source: Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC), Appeal for Immediate Food Needs and Scenarios of Likely Emergency Needs in 2003 (1 October 2002). Notes: 1/Best-case scenario = meher (main) rains extend beyond normal time of withdrawal. 2/Mid-case scenario = meher rains withdraw per the normal pattern. 3/Worst-case scenario = meher rains withdraw earlier than normal.

Under the mid-case scenario, nearly 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) of emergency food assistance will be required to feed about 10 million highly food insecure people during all or part of 2003. Over 2 MMT of food aid will be required to feed approximately 14 million people under the worst-case scenario. The best-case scenario, premised on the extension of rainfall, can be ruled out as the main rains have already withdrawn from many of the drought-affected areas with the bulk of the food insecure population.

More precise food aid needs for 2003 will be determined through a DPPC-led multi-agency assessment scheduled for November/December. However, under either of the mid-case and worst-case scenarios, food aid needs during the first quarter of 2003 are expected to be very high. Meeting these needs requires immediate attention and logistical preparation by all concerned.

Near to above average meher rainfall in Tigray and Afar Regions in September is expected to improve crop and pasture conditions marginally but precipitation remained deficient elsewhere in the country September is the month during which meher season (June-September) rainfall usually starts to withdraw. Normally, meher rainfall withdrawal starts in northern and northeastern crop-producing areas around mid September, then moving west and southward by late September/early October.

This year, Tigray, Afar and northern parts of Somali Region received near to above normal rainfall in September (Figure 2). In other crop dependent areas, September rainfall was mostly below normal, except in pockets where good rains fell during the second and third dekads of the month.

The near to above-normal precipitation during September in Tigray benefited meher season crops, particularly late-planted crops such as teff and pulses. Similarly, pasture regeneration and replenishment of water resources were ETHIOPIA NETWORK ON FOOD SECURITY — MONTHLY REPORT: 18 October 2002 PAGE 4

Figure 2. Estimated September 2002 Rainfall Compared with the Long-term Average First Dekad Second Dekad Third Dekad Estimated Current (1-10 September) (11-20 September) (21-30 September) Rainfall (in MM):

Long-term Average Rainfall (in MM):

Difference of Current Rainfall from the Long- term Average:

Source: United States Geological Survey (USGS) Eros Data Center. Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia.

enhanced by near to above normal rainfall received in the Afar Region and northern parts of Somali Region during the month.

In other crop -dependent areas that experienced a late start of the meher season rainfall, below-normal rainfall in September impeded seed setting, seed filling and maturity stages of planted crops, thereby diminishing harvest prospects.

The early withdrawal of the belg season (March-May) rains, the late start of the main meher rains and erratic distribution during the season (June-September) are expected to lead to a significant decline in the overall main harvest and widespread harvest failures this year (November-December), particularly in the eastern half of the country. Significant decreases in crop production are also expected in traditionally surplus producing western parts of the country. Final harvest estimates will be available in January following the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment in November/December.

Poor to very poor forage conditions persist in Afar Region and central and eastern parts of Somali Region According to the Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS), the northern parts of Afar Region and most of central and eastern Somali Region have poor to very poor pasture conditions (Figure 3).

Southern Ethiopia, including southern parts of Oromiya Region (lowlands of Bale and Borena Zones) as well as southern and southeastern and lowlands of Somali Region are also showing signs of declining forage conditions.

LEWS monitoring sites in the Afar Region exhibit poor to very poor forage conditions (Alert, Warn and Watch stages). The extreme eastern half of Zones 1 and 2 in Afar Region are in an extremely low forage conditions.

ETHIOPIA NETWORK ON FOOD SECURITY — MONTHLY REPORT: 18 October 2002 PAGE 5

Figure 3. Forage Conditions in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Areas of Ethiopia, 21-30 September 2002

Although LEWS projections indicate Legend: that most of these sites will continue to deteriorate over the next 90 days, the situation could improve if the brief but important dadaa rains occur as expected in Oct- ober/November.

According to LEWS, all sites in southern Ethiopia are below normal with most in Warn and Watch status. Forage conditions at Yabello in southern Ethiopia (in the Borena Zone of Oromiya Region) appear to be only somewhat below normal but could decline sharply in the coming months and, therefore, require close monitoring.

The situation could improve in the Somali Region with the expected arrival of the deyr season (late September through November) rains.

Source: Livestock Early Warning System (LEWS) Situation Report for Ethiopia (1 October 2002).

With the approach of the main harvest, cereal prices have started to decline in most markets and stabilized in others Cereal prices that began rising in April started to decline in most retail markets in September and stabilized in others at about their August levels (Figure 4 and Table 3). Maize prices usually start to decline in August as the new maize harvest comes in, after increasing to a peak level during the lean months of June and July.

Figure 4. Real Retail Prices of White Maize in Addis Ababa: 13-Month Trend and Historical Monthly Average (1994-2001) 140

120

100

80

60

Birr/Quintal 40

20

0

Jul-02 Sep-01 Oct-01 Nov-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Sep-02

Historical Average Current Prices Source: Market Information System of the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) and European Commission Local Food Security Unit (EC-LFSU); data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia. Graphics by FEWS NET/Ethiopia. ETHIOPIA NETWORK ON FOOD SECURITY — MONTHLY REPORT: 18 October 2002 PAGE 6

Given poor harvest prospects this year, particularly for long cycle crops such as maize and sorghum, the expected decline in maize prices has been delayed by about a month. Prices of most cereals other than maize normally start declining in September with the approach of the main harvest and start to rise around March/April. However, cereal prices could start increasing earlier than normal in 2003 due to the expected below average meher (main) harvest.

Table 3. Retail Prices for Selected Cereals by Market

Percentage Change from September 2002 CEREALS & MARKETS (Birr/Quintal) Previous Month Last Year September Average (August 2002) (September 2001) (1994-2001) WHITE MAIZE Addis Ababa 115 -1 74 -3 Nekempte 80 8 106 -26 Jimma 85 -9 80 -13 Dire Dawa 131 -8 14 -20 Mekele 144 -3 58 -4 WHITE SORGHUM Addis Ababa 198 0 27 6 Gonder 136 1 33 3 Dire Dawa 216 7 11 3 Mekele 194 11 50 -2 WHITE WHEAT Addis Ababa 198 -1 49 1 Bale Robe 124 -1 61 -5 Hossaena 139 -2 67 -19 Dire Dawa 210 0 11 -9 Mekele 220 2 15 -5 MIXED TEFF Addis Ababa 259 0 7 6 Hossaena 174 6 15 -10 Bahir Dar 175 -3 -27 -32 Dire Dawa 242 -1 34 7 Mekele 212 0 53 5 WHITE BARLEY Addis Ababa 165 1 27 0 Gonder 213 3 112 30 Jimma 142 -4 18 -21 Assela 141 0 -15 -36 Mekele 224 7 41 10

Source: Market Information System of the Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) and European Commission Local Food Security Unit (EC-LFSU); data archives of FEWS NET/Ethiopia.

Disclaimer: This document should not be construed as an official pronouncement by FEWS NET, the EU-LFSU or members of the Early Warning Working Group. Comments and suggestions regarding this report should be addressed to:

The Country Representative Tel: (251-1) 510088 or 510488 USAID—FEWS NET Fax: (251-1) 510043 P.O. Box 1014 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]