Peace and Conflict Trends Analysis

Adamawa & Borno States January 2018

Issue No. #1 Contents • Summary • Introduction • Risk Factor I: Unintended outcome of Operation Deep Punch on Madagali • Risk Factor II: Suspected forceful conscription of firewood loggers • Peace Factor I: Government’s effort to rehabilitate ex-insurgents and person associated with Peace and Conflict Trend Analysis Summary border communities in Adamawa is a monthly analysis of risks State remain the biggest peace identified from monitored incidents This Trend Analysis highlights and security challenge in the and situations with implications the unintended implication of states in January. The drawn- for peace and human security in the ongoing military operations out battle against insurgents that Adamawa and Borno States. It analyzes the drivers and impact of - Operation Deep Punch - on pitched the government these risks and suggest possible communities in fringes of Madagali against the violent extremist mitigation strategies. The data is local government area (LGA) of group, Jama’atu Ahlus-Sunnah from open source information, and . It examines the Lidda’Awati Wal Jihad (Boko observation of trained community current dimension of insurgents’ Haram) and more recently its observers and Search staff in attack on civilians in Borno State splinter group, the Islamic State Adamawa and Borno states where Search’s Early Warning and Early especially firewood sellers and in West Africa Province (ISWAP), Response system is operational. farmers, which raises concerns entered its ninth year with negative Search for Common Ground of forceful conscription of young impacts on security and protection (Search) is an international people into insurgent groups, of residents of the states. In nonprofit organization that promotes and efforts to rehabilitate January, security and protection peaceful resolution of conflict. ex-insurgents and persons issues subsists in Borno State Search’s mission is to transform associated with insurgents and continued to impede access how individuals, organizations, and governments deal with conflict, in Borno State. The analysis to villages in many communities, away from adversarial approaches presents recommendations to undermining the return of internally and towards cooperative solution. address these identified risks. displaced persons (IDPs) and Search has been operational in refugees to their communities. The Nigeria since 2003 in the Niger Introduction improved security and protection Delta, North East, and North Central. recorded in Adamawa State in For more information go to Attacks by insurgent groups on previous months was significantly bit.ly/Nigeria-Monthly-Bulletin communities in Borno State and in reversed by the sharp increase in number of insurgents’ attacks the influx of dislodged insurgents hundreds. October to December on communities in Madagali into many border communities in also recorded similar incidents LGA. Adamawa State recorded Madagali LGA of Adamawa State. in several other communities, the highest number of attack on including in Wuna village which communities, eight out of the 12 Madagali LGA shares borders killed five people. Bomb blasts were attacks recorded in the early warning with , , and Askira/ also reported in several villages and system occurred in Madagali. Uba LGAs in Borno State and an the market in Madagali. The bomb Borno State accounted for about international border with . blast in the market on December 8 89% of all suicide bomb attacks Madagali was occupied by Boko killed an estimated 50 people and recorded in the system, with about Haram in 2014 after the declaration another 17 were killed in the bomb 80% of the bomb carriers reported of Gwoza as headquarter of blast at the market on December 25. as females, thereby reinforcing their Islamic caliphate, but it was the trend of feminization of suicide liberated by the military in 2015. bombing. The month recorded Gwoza is about 25km away from other significant attacks including Madagali and Camp Zeiro, the on firewood loggers, military posts, strong hold of Boko Haram inside markets, IDP camps, police stations, Sambisa Forest, is 41km away. etc. Of the 18 incidents recorded in Madagali also connects to another Borno State, 15 occurred in Borno major hideout of Boko Haram - Central Zone, three in Marte and the Mandara hills situated along Mounguno LGAs in the Northern the Nigeria-Cameroun border. Zone, and none were reported in The Mandara hills region includes the Southern Zone. In Adamawa Gwoza hills in Borno State, hills State, 13 of the 17 incidents across villages in Madagali, and recorded occurred in Madagali those through to Cameroon. LGA. In comparison with December 2017, January recorded more Madagali LGA is insurgents’ attacks on communities situated at the centre of in Adamawa State. Four attacks the trajectory of In the month reviewed reports on communities were reported in insurgents displaced showed that Palam, Gulak, Mayo December, while at least eight were Wandu, Shiwari, Yimirsa, Bitiku, from Sambisa Hybulam, Kafin Hausa, Mildu and reported in January. In Borno State, Forest fleeing to there was no significant difference Kaya communities in Madagali in the type or frequency of attacks hideouts in the were attacked with reported raiding of food stores and dispensary, from December to January. Mandara hills around the Nigeria-Cameroon rustling of animals, burning of Risk Factor I: border. This disposes houses, and killing at least 18 communities in people. The attack on Hybulam Unintended community on January 26 killed Madagali to attacks by three people, while three others outcome of fleeing insurgents. were kidnapped and a bomb blast Operation Deep during the burial of the victims killed Since intensification of the military an additional six people. The Punch on Madagali offensive on Sambisa Forest frequency of the attacks is also In July 2017, the Nigerian Army and its environs in July 2017, significant; at least ten communities launched ‘Operation Deep Punch’ to reports of movement of insurgents were raided between Jan 11 and 26 clear remnants of Boko Haram from into communities in the fringes and two bomb explosions were Sambisa Forest and the general of Madagali increased. This reported in this period. Lake Chad area. The operation movement also brought a season is a part of the ongoing Operation of looting, raids, arsons and attacks These attacks occurred despite Lafiya Dole in the Northeast region. on villages and communities in ongoing military operations and The intensified military offensive in the fringes of the LGA. Between activities of local hunters deployed and around Sambisa Forest and July and September, at least ten to provide security to villages in the axis of Damboa, Bama, Gwoza, communities recorded raids, looting, the LGA. The presence of the 143 Ngala, Marte, and Kala/Balge and attacks by insurgents, killing Ranger Battalion in Madagali, LGAs of Borno State triggered at least ten people and displacing whose previous efforts led to the liberation of Magadali in 2015, to strengthen communication with These attacks overstretch the seemed inadequate to prevent the control and command based in resources of the military who are the attacks. This has reportedly Chibok to improve response, and saddled with the responsibility of breached the confidence of prevent and mitigate attacks. The providing security in the metropolis, communities in the capacity of the capacity of the stationed battalion capital towns of local government military to protect them. Community and other security forces should be councils, and accessible villages actors in Gulak and Palam and assessed to understand existing while also clearing out Sambisa others accused security forces of resource limitations or other issues Forest and the Lake Chad region of laxity in responding to early warning impeding their capacity to provide insurgents. information shared with them, security for communities in the especially reports of insurgents’ fringes of the LGA, those most In December 2017, at least four movements around the communities vulnerable to insurgents’ attacks. farms were attacked in three that subsequently culminated communities in Jere and Mafa in attacks on said communities. Civil-military relations should LGAs and resulted in the death of be strengthened for effective about three farmers while four were Following the trend in communication of early warning reportedly abducted. Citing food the past seven months, information between communities shortages, displaced populations, and security, moving responses especially in Mafa LGA, continued attacks were attributed away from countering to preventing to agitate for security clearance to intensified military attacks in communities in Madagali. to enable them to resume farming operations in Sambisa The role of the hunters and vigilantes activities even amidst reports of Forest and environs. currently supporting the military to insurgents’ infiltration of farmlands This pushed insurgents counter violent extremism in the and bushes around . into border communi- LGA should be strengthen with The earlier clearance for farming ties in Madagali LGA, appropriate trainings on community- was however withdrawn by the based early warring to bridge the military in January due to rising often with the aim of communication gap and increase attacks on farmland. This has looting and raiding their support to communities implication for food security communities rather with minimal security presence. and livelihood of communities than killing villagers. and IDPs in host communities. Risk Factor II: The successes recorded by military interventions like Operation Deep Suspected forceful Punch are critical to the successful conscription of management of the insurgency. The January 30 report of the firewood loggers destruction of Camp Zeiro in In Borno State, attacks targeting Sambisa Forest and the construction firewood loggers, farmers, and of a road into the heartland of civilian populations continued in Sambisa Forest and adjoining the month and it is indicative of towns is a welcome development. the precarious situation of villages However, a critical assessment of and surrounding bushes in the LGA the unintended outcome of such outside the capital town of Maiduguri. operations on rural communities in Madagali, who experience attacks Attacks on farmers daily due to the movement of and firewood loggers insurgents, should be prioritized to is symbolic. It is a The attack on December 30 killed ensure attacks do not escalate to a four loggers while insurgents large-scale invasion or abduction of warning to keep off surrounding bushes abducted six others and stole women and girls from vulnerable five vehicles meant for loading communities. and farmlands, which firewood. On January 3, 31 firewood are believed to house Recommendations: loggers were reportedly abducted An assessment of the capacity of insurgents dislodged in the bushes in Gamboru, Ngala the military battalion in Madagali from Sambisa Forest LGA. The victims were all male should be considered with a view and other hideouts. and reportedly in their twenties. On January 8, suspected insurgents investigation should be sensitive attacked firewood loggers in the and understanding of the loggers’ Rehabilitation of ex- bushes of Kaje village in Marte circumstances which provides them insurgents and people LGA, killed about 20 firewood with limited opportunities to make a associated with them loggers, and abducted about 20 living. Similar attention giving to the is critical to preparing others. Community members control of farming activities should reportedly believe these attacks on also be extended to firewood them for life in the loggers are due to the suspected logging to ensure that the lives of community. This must relationship between them and civilians are not further jeopardized. be accompanied with insurgents. They are believed to robust programs at be secretly supplying insurgents Peace Factor I: the community level to with food and basic needs while Borno State prepare communities fetching firewood, or to be spying to receive rehabilitated on insurgents for the military and Government’s effort civilian militias. However, the trend individuals and live of attacks and abductions on the to rehabilitate with them peacefully. loggers, who are young males, could ex-insurgents and allso be to forcefully conscript them. persons associated Recommendations: Attacks on firewood with Boko Haram Prioritizing community-level healing loggers in Mafa and acceptance is critical in Borno The Borno State government’s LGA are common State where early warning system current efforts to provide reports have shown emerging and put loggers in rehabilitation and reintegration conflicts arising from discrimination midst controversy as programs for ex-insurgents and against ex-insurgents and people community members persons associated with the associated with them, including believe they are insurgency through the Borno State women and girls that were abducted collaborating with Rehabilitation Centre in Bulunkutu, and had children fathered by Boko insurgents. However, Maiduguri is a key program aiming Haram members. Simmering to address some of the emerging tension between groups including the trend of attacks and concerns following the protracted returnees and ‘remainees’ (people abductions of young war on insurgency in the state. that remained in the community male loggers, rather when others fled during invasions Special programs are necessary in by insurgents) over looted suggests forceful the demobilization and rehabilitation properties and other issues have conscription of the process. However, experience from been identified. Rehabilitation loggers by insurgents. other countries with similar contexts programs in this context should showed that family reunification and therefore be two-pronged: Recommendations: community-based strategies are the There is the need for the government rehabilitate ex-insurgents and most effective to prevent reversal to investigate the alleged persons associated with the and return of the beneficiaries to collaboration between firewood insurgency, and prepare the insurgency. The reluctance of loggers and insurgents to remove communities to live harmoniously their families and communities to all access to support for insurgents with the rehabilitated persons. accept them back could reverse the attacking civilians from their hideouts gains of the rehabilitation program if in bushes around communities. The unaddressed.

Search for Common Ground Nigeria For inqueries and comments, please contact @SFCGNigeria Search’s Conflict Analyst at: [email protected] www.sfcg.org/nigeria +234 802 302 1631