Lake Melville Ice Monitoring Service (Lake Ice Report)

Report R‐14‐029‐1123

Prepared for: Nalcor Energy

Revision 1.0 June, 2014

Captain Robert A. Bartlett Building Morrissey Road St. John’s, NL A1B 3X5

T: (709) 864‐8354 F: (709) 864‐4706

Info@c‐core.ca www.c‐core.ca

Registered to ISO 9001:2008

Lake Melville Ice Monitoring

Service (Lake Ice Report)

Prepared for: Nalcor Energy

Prepared by:

C‐CORE

C‐CORE Report Number: R‐14‐029‐1123 Revision 1.0 June, 2014

Captain Robert A. Bartlett Building Morrissey Road St. John's, NL Canada A1B 3X5

T: (709) 864‐8354 F: (709) 864‐4706

Info@c‐core.ca www.c‐core.ca

Registered to ISO 9001:2008

Lake Melville Ice Monitoring Service (Lake Ice Report) Nalcor Energy Report no: R‐14‐029‐1123 Revision 1.0 June, 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION ...... 1 1 IMAGE ACQUISITIONS ...... 2 2 METEORLOGICAL CONDITIONS ...... 4 3 ICE MODEL ...... 5 4 RADAR AND OPTICAL SIGNATURES ...... 6 4.1 Freeze‐up ...... 6 4.2 SAR Features of Interest ...... 8 4.3 Break‐up ...... 8 APPENDIX A ‐ IMAGERY ...... 10

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. SAR image acquisition table for Lake Melville for the 2013/2014 season ...... 2 Table 2. Cloud free MODIS image acquisition for Lake Melville for the 2013/2014 season ...... 3

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Temperature profile and Precipitation chart for 2013/14 season ...... 4 Figure 2. Graph of Ice Thickness and Snow Depth ...... 5 Figure 3. Standard mode, RADARSAT‐2 SAR, HH polarization, acquired on Dec 14, 2013 ...... 6

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INTRODUCTION This document serves as a lake ice analysis report for Goose Bay and Lake Melville during the 2013/14 season. Through a service agreement with Nalcor Energy, C‐CORE has provided near real time image maps showing ice conditions on Lake Melville during the 2013‐2014 ice season. To complete this work, C‐CORE has acquired Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and optical imagery and processed and disseminated these to the service's website for community use. Additionally, C‐CORE's one dimensional (1D) thermodynamic ice thickness model was run for the entire season and the results were posted on the website weekly. Using the combination of the service's imagery, the results of C‐CORE's ice thickness model as well as local meteorological data this lake ice analysis report was written describing Goose Bay and Lake Melville's ice freeze‐up, break‐up and any ice features of interest that where observed in the image signature.

The document is structured as follows:

Section 1 – Describes the imagery acquired for the Lake Melville Water Quality service. The same imagery is used for the lake ice analysis in this report.

Section 2 – Describes the local meteorological data acquired over the 2013/14 season.

Section 3 – Describes the ice thickness model results for the 2013/14 season.

Section 4 – Describes the radar and optical signature in Goose Bay and Lake Melville during freeze‐up, break‐up and any features of interest observed in the imagery.

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1 IMAGE ACQUISITIONS RADARSAT‐2 imagery with a 25m and 75m spatial resolution were acquired over the Lake Melville, from November 20th, 2013 through June 7th, 2014. Table 1 shows the dates and time of acquisition. Table 1. SAR image acquisition table for Lake Melville for the 2013/2014 season

RADARSAT‐2 Acquisitions Date Time (UTM) Date Time (UTM) 11/20/2013 10:29:23 2/24/2014 21:54:34 11/24/2013 10:12:10 2/28/2014 10:12:05 12/04/2013 21:46:06 03/07/2014 10:08:02 12/08/2013 10:04:01 03/10/2014 21:46:14 12/11/2013 21:41:24 3/17/2014 10:17:18 12/14/2013 21:54:37 3/24/2014 10:13:01 12/24/2013 22:02:57 3/31/2014 21:33:48 12/28/2013 21:46:17 04/07/2014 10:04:46 12/31/2013 21:58:46 4/13/2014 10:29:42 01/04/2014 21:41:26 4/23/2014 22:02:55 01/07/2014 21:54:40 4/30/2014 21:58:44 01/11/2014 21:37:23 05/01/2014 10:04:47 1/14/2014 21:50:27 05/04/2014 21:42:05 1/17/2014 22:02:55 05/07/2014 21:54:36 1/21/2014 21:46:20 5/17/2014 22:02:55 1/24/2014 21:58:44 5/18/2014 10:08:57 1/31/2014 21:54:39 5/28/2014 10:17:17 02/04/2014 10:13:06 5/31/2014 21:54:31 02/07/2014 21:50:24 06/01/2014 9:59:35 02/10/2014 22:02:54 06/04/2014 10:12:00 2/14/2014 21:46:15 06/07/2014 21:50:28 2/21/2014 21:42:06

Cloud free MODIS imagery was posted on the website for the 2013/2014 season. Table 2 shows the dates of acquisition for the MODIS imagery that was posted.

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Table 2. Cloud free MODIS image acquisition for Lake Melville for the 2013/2014 season

MODIS Acquisitions Date 12/01/2013 1/19/2014 3/30/2014 5/24/2014 12/02/2013 1/22/2014 04/01/2014 5/25/2014 12/09/2013 1/27/2014 04/02/2014 5/27/2014 12/14/2013 1/28/2014 04/08/2014 5/28/2014 12/15/2013 1/29/2014 04/10/2014 5/31/2014 12/17/2013 02/01/2014 04/11/2014 06/03/2014 12/20/2013 02/03/2014 04/12/2014 6/13/2014 12/22/2013 02/05/2014 4/13/2014 12/23/2013 02/06/2014 4/17/2014 12/24/2013 02/07/2014 4/22/2014 12/25/2013 02/08/2014 4/29/2014 12/28/2013 02/10/2014 05/02/2014 12/29/2013 2/18/2014 05/10/2014 12/31/2013 2/27/2014 5/13/2014 01/02/2014 03/01/2014 5/14/2014 01/03/2014 03/05/2014 5/15/2014 01/09/2014 03/09/2014 5/17/2014 01/11/2014 3/26/2014 5/18/2014 1/17/2014 3/28/2014 5/19/2014

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2 METEORLOGICAL CONDITIONS Meteorological data was acquired from Environment Canada's Happy Valley‐Goose Bay station located at 53.36 N, 60.42W. This meteorological data was used as input the thermodynamic ice thickness model. Figure 1 shows the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, total rain, total snow and total precipitation for the 2013/14 season.

Figure 1. Temperature profile and Precipitation chart for 2013/14 season

The daily temperature profile during the image acquisition period can be qualitatively broken down into four time periods. The first begins at the start of image acquisitions (November 20th, 2013) to November 28th, 2013 and is characterized as daily maximum temperature rising periodically above 0o C and the minimum daily temperature remains consistently below 0o C. From November 29th, 2013 to April 2nd, 2014 it is characterized as daily maximums below 0o C, other than two cases where temperatures rise slightly above 0o C. Of significance is a rain event on January 7th, 2013. The third period that follows shows a rise in daily temperatures, with the maximum temperatures consistently above 0o C. The minimum temperature fluctuates above and below the freezing point to May 16th. The final stage starts on May 16th where the minimum temperature remains above 0o C for the remainder of the season.

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3 ICE MODEL A 1D thermodynamic ice thickness model was run for the entire season using a mixing depth of 30.0 meters, snow density of 200 kg/m3 and latitude of 53.7N. Figure 2 shows the ice thickness and snow depth over time. The first graph shows the last four seasons and the second graph shows the 2012/13 and 2013/14 season only.

Figure 2. Graph of Ice Thickness and Snow Depth The 2013/14 dates when freeze‐up, break‐up, and the maximum ice thickness and snow depths derived from the model are:

 Freeze‐up: 12/08/2013  Break‐up: 05/27/2014  Ice thickness peak: 05/03/2014 = 1.32 meters  Snow depth peak: 04/14/2014 = 0.57 meters

The 2013/14 season snow pack begins to decrease in depth starting around April 15th 2014 and the maximum ice thickness is achieved around May 3rd 2014. The ice thickness drops rapidly and ice break‐up occurs on May 27th 2014 which is coincidental with the observed ice conditions acquired with the SAR and MODIS imagery. The 2013/14 season lake ice peak thickness and break‐up dates are comparable to the 2011/12 season, but significantly thicker with a later break‐up date compared to the 2010/11 and 2012/13 seasons.

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4 RADAR AND OPTICAL SIGNATURES From the radar and the optical signature, freeze‐up and break‐up dates have been determined. As well areas of interest have be labelled in Figure 3. All imagery mentioned in this section is in Appendix A.

Figure 3. Standard mode, RADARSAT‐2 SAR, HH polarization, acquired on Dec 14, 2013

4.1 FREEZE‐UP Prior to the stages of freeze‐up, it is evident in the November 20th, 2013 SAR imagery that both Lake Melville and Goose Bay are completely open water. The temperature graph shown in Figure 1 is consistent with this as temperatures remain consistently above zero during this time. The temperatures begin to drop well below zero during the night after this and consequently, November 24th, 2013 highlights some of the new ice developments. It is evident in this SAR imagery that new ice is forming near the mouth of Goose River in Goose Bay as well as along its southern coastline, east of the mouth of the Churchill River. Newly formed shoreline ice is also starting to form in Etaugalet Bay in Lake Melville.

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The temperature trend continues to drop and on November 27th, 2013 (SAR imagery) mobile new ice has formed in Goose Bay and the southern half of Lake Melville. The freeze‐up is clearly starting to take place at this point.

The next scene in the sequence is dated December 1st in which the MODIS imagery is showing that Goose Bay is approximately 80% frozen over, continues to freeze over on December 2nd (MODIS imagery) towards Sandy Point and over 95% frozen as evident in the December 4th, 2013 SAR imagery. The temperatures have dropped to below ‐10 and temperatures are not going above zero at this point.

The December 2nd MODIS imagery has evidence of new ice starting to form along the south east coast of Lake Melville but the majority of the new ice in the interior of the southern half of Lake Melville (seen in the November 27th, SAR imagery) has disappeared most likely due to a wind event. It is mostly open water with ice streamers forming in areas.

On December 4th (SAR imagery) the shore fast ice continues to grow in Etaugalet Bay and Valley Bay in Lake Melville. These isolated and protected back bays are able to freeze up quickly as they are not dealing with wind events. The dark signatures show that the ice is forming with little to no surface roughness. This fast ice expansion continues on December 8th (SAR imagery) with ice streamers forming on December 9th (MODIS imagery) in the interior of the southern Lake Melville. There is a definite line of new ice that has formed along the south shore of Lake Melville. This ice is likely quite thin but resilient.

Three days later, the December 11th (SAR imagery) demonstrates the rapid growth of new ice within the lake. The south shore line of new ice described in the previous scene has worked its way north to cover approximately 80% of the area. The roughened surface north of the ice extent suggests that there is wind causing waves, or specifically wind roughened water. Of note, Goose Bay is now fast having bright linear features, which is evidence that this ice is now clearly fast.

The wind effects on the ice can be seen in the December 14th SAR and MODIS imagery. Of specific note, the new ice has been pushed south and therefore the extent of new ice has now been altered. The southern shore, however, has continued to thicken. Clearly, there has been a significant change in Lake Melville's ice since the previous December 8th scene, with the ice consolidating east of Etaugalet Bay.

On December 17th (MODIS imagery) Lake Melville is possibly 90% mobile ice and consolidating.

Lake Melville completed consolidation of ice between December 17th (MODIS imagery) and December 24th (SAR imagery).

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4.2 SAR FEATURES OF INTEREST The most stable areas from a SAR and optical imaging perspective are labeled 'A' and "D' in Figure 3. These areas are the first categories of the stages of development on Lake Melville, meaning these were also the first to freeze and are thickest which lens to their stable radar signature from January onward.

The area labeled 'C' was the second to freeze over and its second thickest region. This area also has a stable radar signature from January onwards.

The area labeled 'B' is the thinnest ice which froze over between December 17th and 24th. It has variable signatures from December 24th through mid January. Unlike all the other regions, there are large areas where the SAR signatures change from scene to scene, from bright to dark and vice versa. In spite of these signature changes, the ice is fast which precludes ice dynamics and formation as influencing factors. These changes could be attributed to significant changes in the snow properties be it depth or physical structure. There was a heavy snowfall event on 12 and 13 January, 22.5 cm of snowfall was recorded at Happy Valley‐Goose Bay. There was also a rain event on January 7th (2mm) that would have contributed to a change in the radar signature. This rain event is part of the reason for the "washed out" look of the fast ice in the SAR imagery. From this point on in the season, the level of detail seen in the SAR imagery within the now fast ice on Lake Melville is far less.

The December 28th SAR scene is also interesting in that there is evidence of tracks along the newly formed lake ice all along the northern shores from northwest River to beyond the point in which many of the local cottages are. Many of the floes that have frozen within the fast ice are clearly visible.

The SAR imagery from mid January to mid March shows the lake ice remains consolidated with the SAR signature changing from scene to scene. These changes could be attributed to significant changes in the snow properties be it depth or physical structure.

4.3 BREAK‐UP On March 31st, 2014 (SAR imagery) the main channel connecting Goose Bay and Lake Melville starts to show open water. The amount of open water at this point grows throughout April (SAR imagery) to May 17th (SAR and MODIS imagery). This period corresponds to the maximum temperatures consistently above 0oC and the minimum temperature fluctuates above and below the freezing.

The appearance of the imagery changes dramatically from this point forward and corresponds to the transition of the daily temperature profiles to maximum and minimum temperature being above zero. This, essentially, suggests surface melt has begun and the SAR imagery captures this.

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Of particular note, the April 23rd SAR image shows a complete loss of any sort of texture within the fast ice. This is a common occurrence with any sort of lake ice as the surface melt removes any sort of variance in tone within that structure. This scene is also quite interesting as it shows the main channels that have clear signs of open water. The channel at from Lake Melville to Grand Lake as well as at Goose Bay both clearly show ice has broken up. In both cases, the ice is never considered stable but this scene, based on the surface melt; helps characterize this open water effect nicely.

One week later, the April 30th SAR image shows all channels in question continuing to deteriorate. Back bays area also starting to show signs of melt as well as runoff from some of the elevation that surrounds the lake.

Over 2 weeks pass before the May 17th SAR scene is acquired and the two channels previously mentioned have now connected. This area is more open water and mobile ice at this point. Shoreline erosion is noticeable through the entire lake, although particularly prominent in the south shore line in Goose Bay. The following day, the May 18th SAR scene shows that the area between the two channels is almost completely open water.

One week later, the May 24th (SAR and MODIS imagery) show significant fractures throughout the entire area. Goose Bay is now mostly open water mixed with two major floes while Lake Melville East of North West River has grown completely unstable.

On May 28th (SAR and MODIS) the lake is over 40% open water with most of the floe being pushed to the southern portion of the lake due to wind. On June 1st it is over 60% open water with the ice floes moving to the North West portion of the lake. On June 4th (SAR imagery) there is less than 5% of the ice remaining located in the interior of the lake. On June 7th (SAR imagery) Lake Melville is completely open water.

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APPENDIX A ‐ IMAGERY

The tab text defines date of acquisition and sensor type of imagery: MM_DDYY_sensor

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