Bulletin #22 • March 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw
The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url
Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 5 The bulletin contains official information for the month of February 2019 Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger collected from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The Indicators 5 High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 6 ZRBF Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning regarding this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi. Signals 10 [email protected]), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water ([email protected]). level in selected rivers 11
UNDP Zimbabwe, ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, Harare, Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Overall Results and Implications
Summary Classification
Key Highlights According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 15 districts were rated “Alert” and the remaining three did not report. The following indicators were rated “Emergency” during the reporting month of January 2018 were: 1. Cattle price in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 2. Cholera Reported Cases in Mutoko 3. Common Diarrhea reported Cases in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 4. Crop condition in Beitbridge 5. Crops pest and diseases outbreaks in Beitbridge 6. Distances to water sources for households in Mberengwa 7. FMD reported cases in Mberengwa 8. Goat Price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane 9. Indigenous chicken price in Chiredzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza and Umzingwane 10. Maize price in Bubi, Chiredzi, Mudzi, Nkayi and Umzingwane 11. Number of livestock poverty deaths in Zvishavane 12. Pastures availability in Beitbridge 13. Pearl millet price in Beitbridge, Bubi, Chiredzi, Insiza, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane 14. Rapoko price in Mudzi 15. Sorghum price in Bubi, Insiza, Matobo, Nkayi, Umguza and Zvishavane
Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019 Zvishavane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Umzingwane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Umguza
No
data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Nyanga
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal No data No data Nkayi No
Data Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Mwenezi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mutoko
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Mudzi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Mbire
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
No data No data No data Mberengwa
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Matobo
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Lupane
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Kariba
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal No data No data No data Insiza
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Binga
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal No data No data No data Bubi
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Normal Normal Normal Beitbridge
Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert
Normal Month Jan-19 Oct-18 July 18 Feb-19 Feb-18 Nov 18 Nov Dec-18 Aug-18 Mar-18 May-18 Sept-18 June-18 April-18 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts 1: Overall Classification Table Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming
• The general increase in prices of different commodities is a response to weakening of the local currencies (bond notes) against the US dollar and rand. Beitbridge, being a border town, is more very sensitive to price fluctuations for maize grain and cattle, especially, in the light of an active parallel market informal trading of the local currencies against the South African Rands, in the district. Farmers selling their cattle and grain, in these inflationary conditions, should be advised to invest their earnings in physical assets or stable currencies to lock the value of their earnings.
• Pasture availability were in the emergency in Beitbridge due to the late on-set of the rainfall and the little rainfall received so far in the district. Due to the same reasons, high prevalence of livestock poverty deaths were recorded in Chiredzi. Farmers should, therefore, be advised to provide supplementary feeds to their livestock and to consider destocking the non-productive stock.
• High prevalence of waterborne diseases, especially human common diarrhoea, were reported in all the targeted districts, other than Nyanga. Development partners and the Ministry of Health should collaborate to strengthen public health and hygiene awareness in all the districts and to encourage affected people to drink oral rehydration solution while seeking immediate medical assistance at the nearest health centre.
• Six (6) districts and were in the Alarm category, while the other six (6) were in the alert category for livestock diseases, with Matobo districts reporting five (5) cases of the deadly theileriosis, popularly known as the January disease. Farmer should be encouraged to dip or spray their livestock with acaricides once every week to prevent tick borne diseases. Overnight kraals, for cattle, should be free from mud to prevent foot rot, black leg and other livestock opportunistic bacterial infections.
• Fall army worm (FAW) affected maize crops in Beitbridge, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mberengwa, Zvishavane and Mwenezi. Farmers should be encouraged to consult their local extension officers for safe pesticide usage against FAW and other non-chemical control measures. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators
Vegetation Condition Index
Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for February 2019
The Vegetation Condition Index shows improving vegetation condition in some districts culminating in the following classification:
1. Normal (Binga, Bubi, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza and Umzingwane),
2. Alert (Beitbridge, Insiza, Mberengwa and Zvishavane), and
3. Alarm (Chiredzi)
The detailed table below show the average VCI values per district.
District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.51 Alert Mbire 0.85 Normal Binga 0.83 Normal Mudzi 0.82 Normal Bubi 0.78 Normal Mutoko 0.85 Normal Chiredzi 0.32 Alarm Mwenezi 0.84 Normal Insiza 0.56 Alert Nkayi 0.86 Normal Kariba 0.8 Normal Nyanga 0.87 Normal Lupane 0.77 Normal Umguza 0.88 Normal Matobo 0.74 Normal Umzingwane 0.67 Normal Mberengwa 0.43 Alert Zvishavane 0.57 Alert Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Real-time water levels in major rivers
The second macro-indicator, real-time river flow, showed that all the rivers had low flow rates indicating low flooding risk. The classification is based on a scale determined in Annex 1. The rain seasonhas started across the country and Table 3 show that there was no flooding risk in all the districts.
Table 3: Average water levels along selected major rivers in Zimbabwe, February 2019.
River Site Level Crisis Modifier Category Zambezi Victoria Falls 0.83m Normal Odzi Odzi Gorge 0.59m Normal Mazowe Mazowe Bridge 0.73m Normal Musengezi Centenary 0.43m Normal Musengezi Chidodo 3.37m Normal Save Condo Dam 0.235m Normal Runde Confluence with Tokwe No data
Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators
The micro-indicator data from the 15 districts which reported (Kariba, Binga, Mbire did not report) reflect conditions in the four broad classes of indicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category maintaining the same categories from the past month.
• Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 9 out of 14 districts an improvement from 12 in the previous month. The rest of the districts were in the Normal category.
• Production indicators are in the Alert category for 10 districts. This is mainly due to an increase in livestock diseases, livestock poverty deaths as well as the high cases of common diarrhoea which are in emergency for 13 districts.
• Access indicators were mainly in the Alert category in 10 districts which reported. Households which were travelling 9.4km to get water in Mberengwa are now travelling an average of 1.13
• Seven (7) districts were in the Alarm stage for trade indicators. This was mainly due to the sharp increase in the goat and cattle prices where a beast for 1500 RTGS dollars in Umzingwane, cattle prices were averaging 1000 dollars per beast. Beitbridge was in the emergency category due to a sharp increase in livestock and grain prices. Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Table 4: Trigger Indicator summary for January 2019
District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Emergency Bubi Normal Normal Alert Alarm Chiredzi Alert Alert Alert Alarm Insiza Alert Normal Normal Alert Lupane Normal Alert Alert Normal Matobo Alert Alert Alert Normal Mberengwa Alert Alert Alert Alarm Mudzi Normal Alert Alert Normal Mutoko Normal Alert Normal Alert Mwenezi Alert Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Alarm Nyanga Normal Umguza Alert Alert Alert Alarm Umzingwane Normal Normal Normal Alarm Zvishavane Alert Alert Normal Alarm
Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update
Biophysical Trigger indicators
Table 5: Biophysical trigger indicator summary for February 2019
Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 1 126 3 Bubi 4 166.2 4 Chiredzi 3 229.44 3 Insiza 3 86.4 3 Lupane 3 93 3 Matobo 2 120 2 Mberengwa 3 113.32 3 Mudzi 2 83.3 4 Mutoko 4 80 4 Mwenezi 3 162.1 3 Nkayi 4 110 2 Nyanga No data No data No data Umguza 4 300 2 Umzingwane 4 56 4 Zvishavane 3 87 3 v
• There has been a significant improvement in Pasture availability this month. Pasture availability was in Emergency category in Beitbridge district. Two (2) districts were in the Alarm category down from five (5) in the previous month an improvement attributed to the rainfall received which revived pastures. Six (6) Districts were in the Alert category and Five (5) in the normal. Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
• Rainfall was in Alert category in Umguza district which received 300mm a decrease from four (4) districts last month which had received between (100mm-300mm). Seven (7) Districts were in the Alert category having received an excess of 100mm of rainfall and six (6) were in the normal category. Beitbridge district which had not received any rainfall in January received 126 mm in February.
• Three (3) districts were in the Alarm category for State of water sources. Six (6) districts were in the Alert category.
Production Trigger indicators
Table 6: Production trigger indicator summary for February 2019
Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Reported Cases Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Livestock of Livestock of Waterborne Outbreaks Poverty Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 1 4 3 -1 5 423 Bubi 3 3 3 0 34 98 Chiredzi 3 3 2 418 41 1045 Insiza 2 3 2 0 0 149 Lupane 2 3 2 63 144 182 Matobo 3 3 2 21 32 218 Mberengwa 2 3 2 0 73 271 Mudzi 1 2 2 0 40 752 Mutoko 2 2 3 0 312 486 Mwenezi 3 3 2 34 0 276 Nkayi 3 1 3 0 12 187 Nyanga No data No data No data No data 0 0 Umguza 3 3 2 0 14 418 Umzingwane 3 3 3 0 23 202 Zvishavane 3 3 2 0 87 563
• Eight (8) districts were in the normal category. Four (4) districts were in the Alert category and two were in the Alarm category. FAW affected maize crops in Beitbridge, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mberengwa, Zvishavane and Mwenezi. • Crop condition was in Normal category for 11 districts, Alert in Mudzi and Mutoko and Alarm in Nkayi. Rains received improved crop condition in most districts, however persistent high temperatures left some maize crop wilting in Chiredzi and Mwenezi, small grains have a better chance of reaching maturity. • There was a slight improvement in livestock body condition mainly due to the slight improvement in pasture availability. Nine (9) districts were in the Alert category and five (5) were in the normal. • There was a decrease in the districts reporting livestock poverty deaths from nine (9) last month to four (4) this month, mainly due to improvement in pasture availability. Two (2) districts were in the Alert category and Chiredzi district was in Alert category having reported 418 cases of livestock poverty deaths. • Six (6) districts were in the Alarm category for livestock diseases. Matobo districts reported five (5) cases of the theileriosis. Six (6) districts were in the Alert category. There were no reported cases of FMD. • 13 districts were in the emergency category for water borne diseases, all being common diarrhoea cases. Bubi district was in the Alarm category. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Access Trigger Indicators
Table 7: Access trigger indicator summary for February 2019
Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 3 3 5 Bubi 2.5 2 4 3 Chiredzi 1.21 2 3 1.42 Insiza 3 3 4 1 Lupane 3 2 3 1 Matobo 3 2 3 4 Mberengwa 1.13 2 No data 1.69 Mudzi 2 2 3 2 Mutoko 0.4 2 4 0.5 Mwenezi 1.43 2 3 1.22 Nkayi No data 2 4 2 Nyanga No data No data No data No data Umguza 2.5 3 4 5 Umzingwane 2 3 4 1 Zvishavane 0.9 2 No data 1.34
• Distance to water sources is in the Alert category for 10 districts. Households in Insiza, Lupane, Matobo were travelling an average of 3km to access water.
• Two (2) districts; Up from one last month. Four districts were in the alert category down from eight (8) in the previous month. Eight (8) districts were in the normal category due to the rains received; cattle were tracking shorter distances, making use of pools and rivulets near homesteads.
• School attendance was in the Alert category for six (6) districts mainly due to lack of fees children were being sent home. Six (6) were in the normal category and three (3) districts did not provide data.
• Ten districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert category. Four (4) districts were in the normal category Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Trade Trigger Indicators
Table 8: Trade trigger indicator summary for February 2019
Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price Millet Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge 1000 0 0 10 0 No data 0 0 Bubi 1000 80 10 12 15 No data 100 15 Chiredzi 722.22 68.11 9.5 10.84 11.76 13.4 102.75 9.62 Insiza 775 50 10 10 12 15 75 12 Lupane 500 50 8 10 12 10 70 10 Matobo 600 60 10 10 10 10 80 10 Mberengwa 550 80 7 12 15 15 150 12 Mudzi 330 28 5 6.5 7.5 10 40 5 Mutoko 650 50 15 10 12 18 65 10 Mwenezi 329.17 30.56 5.33 4.83 4.42 8.1 52.75 4.5 Nkayi 750 80 12 12 No data No data 90 No data Nyanga No data No data No data No data No data No data No data No data Umguza 600 120 15 10 15 No data 150 15 Umzingwane 1500 120 20 12 10 No data No data 10 Zvishavane 1000 80 10 10 12 13 100 12
• Cattle prices were in the Emergency category for eight (8) districts down from 14 last month. Most prices of cattle were pegged in forex (Rands,) for districts such as Mberengwa, Lupane, Matobo, Umguza, Chiredzi, Mwenezi, Mudzi (USD). • Goat prices were ranging between 50 and 120 dollars resulting in eight (8) districts being in the Emergency category. Of note is Umzingwane where a goat sold for 120 dollars. • Pearl millet prices 12 districts resulting in Emergency categorisation. Sorghum prices were in the emergency category for six (6) districts Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
National Media Monitoring for Early-Warning Signals
• CBH to invest US$150million in Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector 16 February 2019 https://www.chronicle.co.zw/cbh-to-invest-us150million-in-zimbabwes-agriculture-sector/
• Debunking GMO myths could improve food security in Africa 15 February 2019 https://www.farmanddairy.com/news/debunking-gmo-myths-may-improve-food-security-in- africa/537901.html
• Wildlife Conservation and Female Empowerment in Zimbabwe 17 February 2019 https://www.borgenmagazine.com/wildlife-conservation-and-female-empowerment-in- zimbabwe/
• Fueled by climate change, Zimbabwe’s erratic harvests cause farmers with HIV to struggle 17 February https://www.newzimbabwe.com/fueled-by-climate-change-zimbabwes-erratic-harvests-cause- farmers-with-hiv-to-struggle/
• Govt farming programme to benefit youths 21 February 2019 http://www.zbc.co.zw/govt-farming-programme-to-benefit-youths/
• UN chief to launch Zim food aid appeal 27 February 2019 https://www.chronicle.co.zw/un-chief-to-launch-zim-food-aid-appeal/
• Integrate pest management practices, SADC urged 26 February 2019 http://www.zbc.co.zw/integrate-pest-management-practices-sadc-urged/
• UN launches flash appeal for Zim 28 February 2019 http://www.zbc.co.zw/un-launches-flash-appeal-for-zim/
• UN aims to revive Zimbabwe from drought with USD 234 million 28 February 2019 https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/international/428878-un-aims-to-revive-zimbabwe- from-drought-with-usd-234-million
• Zimbabwe looks to tackle food shortage using local resources 28 February 2019 http://venturesafrica.com/zimbabwe-looks-to-tackle-bread-shortage-using-local-resources/ Page 12 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #22 | March 2019
Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers
Table 8: River water flow categorisation
Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence Masvingo 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%