IN THE CALVERT ERA: BETWEEN CONTINUITY AND CHANGE

Tom McIntosh and Howard Leeson

Going into the election last November, the appeared poised to form the new government. Yet the NDP managed to secure a fourth successive victory, a feat not accomplished since . Political scientists Tom McIntosh and Howard Leeson review the latest developments in Saskatchewan and discuss the most pressing issues and challenges facing the province. Demographics, agricultural crisis, the future of Aboriginal populations and equalization are all top government priorities. But since these issues all have intergovernmental dimensions to them, resolving them will require more than local action. And in order to get what it needs from Ottawa, “Saskatchewan may well have to move away from its former role as a ‘fixer’ between the federal government and more hardline provincial governments and adopt a much harder line with Ottawa,” conclude the authors.

Pendant la campagne électorale de novembre dernier, le Saskatchewan Party semblait enfin prêt à former le prochain gouvernement. Mais le NPD a finalement remporté un quatrième scrutin consécutif, exploit sans précédent depuis l’époque de Tommy Douglas. Les politologues Tom McIntosh et Howard Leeson examinent l’évolution récente de la Saskatchewan ainsi que les enjeux et défis les plus pressants auxquels cette province est confrontée. En tête de ses priorités : problèmes démographiques, crise agricole, avenir des populations autochtones et péréquation. Toutes ces questions ont cependant une dimension intergouvernementale qui nécessite une action débordant le cadre provincial. Et pour obtenir d’Ottawa ce dont elle a besoin, la Saskatchewan devra sans doute délaisser son rôle de « médiateur » entre le gouvernement fédéral et les provinces traditionnellement plus exigeantes, et adopter une ligne plus dure à l’exemple de ces dernières.

n a recent book on Saskatchewan politics much was Conservative Party of Saskatchewan, for example, have dis- made of the clash between continuity and change in appeared, while new parties, like the Saskatchewan Party, I the province. When most Canadians outside of the have appeared on the scene. province think of Saskatchewan they think of flat rolling Using Alberta as an example of what can supposedly be wheat fields, small towns, and socialist experiments like accomplished by the private enterprise system, successive medicare. Some of those things are still there. However, right-of-centre parties in the province have argued that much has changed. The agricultural community is in severe Saskatchewan need only adopt the private enterprise system crisis, small towns are dying, and the economy of the of its western neighbour in order to succeed. Those on the province is now propelled by the service and natural Left point to the fact that Saskatchewan’s resources are more resource industries. As well, the ethnic and linguistic make- landlocked, that greater amounts of capital and technology up of the province is changing dramatically. In particular, were needed to develop them, and that they do not repre- the aboriginal community is growing at a very fast rate. sent the same potential for short-term gain as did light One might expect all of this to have a dramatic impact crude oil in the case of Alberta. They argue that on politics and the political parties in the province. In some Saskatchewan is on the right track with its slower develop- ways it does. In response to what has transpired in the rest ment and greater attention to social experiments that bring of the world, political parties in the province have moved greater equality and a better quality of life. For the voters of ideologically toward the Right. Some parties, the Progressive the province, then, it was not at all clear that switching to

24 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2004 Saskatchewan in the Calvert era: between continuity and change the Alberta model would bring with it would make the difference between a be less charismatic than the man he the same economic prosperity that majority or a minority government. In replaced and certainly did not have the province has achieved. This, then, was the end, the Liberals were shut out of same national profile as . the context for the election of the legislature as the NDP took 30 seats More importantly, in the year and a November 2003. to the Saskatchewan Party’s 28. After half since Romanow’s departure, the the selection of the Speaker, the NDP government appeared to be lurching his most recent election night had a one-seat advantage. from one minor scandal to another. T could not have been more different Going into the election, the None of these alone, whether a failed than the one in 1999. Then, NDP pre- Saskatchewan Party appeared poised for investment in a potato processing plant, mier Roy Romanow was ahead in all the victory. After nearly unseating the delay in a proposed ethanol facility or a series of questionable In 2003 the NDP appeared more vulnerable than it had been out-of-country investments in 1999. The drought that over the past few years had by provincial Crown corpo- rations, was enough to sink devastated much of the province’s agricultural sector had a government. But taken lessened somewhat, but not to the extent that anyone could together they painted a pic- declare a recovery. Economic growth was modest, but higher ture of a government that than in much of the rest of the country. Yet, the balanced was, as the Opposition charged, at best “tired” and budgets that marked the Romanow era were quickly fading as “out of ideas” and, at worst, the province again moved toward deficit. “incompetent” and “fiscally irresponsible.” polls and the local chattering class gen- Romanow four years earlier, this coali- erally conceded his eventual victory. tion of right-of-centre former Liberals, hortly after the election call, howev- Thus, relatively early into the counting Conservatives and federal Reform/ S er, the Saskatchewan Party provided of the votes, and confident in its com- Alliance members had spent the past the NDP some momentum by appearing puter projections, the CBC election desk four years as the presumed government- untrustworthy on a number of “wedge announced that the NDP would win its in-waiting. In 2003 the NDP appeared issues.” In response to a question con- third majority government. As the night more vulnerable than it had been in cerning his party’s intentions vis-à-vis wore on, however, this was not to be, 1999. The drought that over the past the privatization of the large Crown cor- and the NDP had to make do with a few years had devastated much of the porations (Sask Energy, Sask Power, minority government. Needless to say, province’s agricultural sector had less- SaskTel, Saskatchewan Government the media were embar- rassed, and that no doubt More importantly, in the year and a half since Romanow’s contributed to the more departure, the government appeared to be lurching from one cautious coverage of what minor scandal to another. None of these alone, whether a failed all conceded was a pretty close fight four years later. investment in a potato processing plant, the delay in a With the NDP, now proposed ethanol facility or a series of questionable out-of- led by former Romanow country investments by provincial crown corporations, was cabinet minister Lorne enough to sink a government. But taken together they painted Calvert, and the opposi- tion Saskatchewan Party, a picture of a government that was, as the opposition charged, led again by former at best “tired” and “out of ideas” and, at worst, “incompetent” Reform Party MP Elwin and “fiscally irresponsible.” Hermanson, locked in an effective dead heat in the polls, the ened somewhat, but not to the extent Insurance (SGI) and the Saskatchewan media was reticent to rely on computer that anyone could declare a recovery. Crown Investment Corporation (CIC), projections. More than two hours after Economic growth was modest, but which provides direct and venture capi- the polls closed and with a single seat higher than in much of the rest of the tal investment in various sectors of the see-sawing between the NDP and new country. Yet, the balanced budgets that economy), Hermanson said, in effect, Liberal leader David Karwacki, the CBC marked the Romanow era were quickly that the Saskatchewan Party had no pronounced an NDP victory. But it fading as the province again moved plans at this time to sell the big Crowns. would not venture a prediction on who toward deficit. Though well regarded, The NDP leapt on the phrase “at this would win the riding that the new premier appeared to many to time” as being code for “there could be

POLICY OPTIONS 25 MAY 2004 Tom McIntosh and Howard Leeson

CP Photo Lorne Calvert, elected : It remains to be seen if he is able to put togeth- er government policies that will respond to the public’s desire for trustworthiness, say McIntosh and Leeson. Indeed, the policy areas that need the most attention and the most creativity are also those areas where the Calvert government made little progress in the year and a half before winning its own mandate.

plans in the future,” and for the first While the polls put the two parties intended to vote for the NDP), it seems time in recent years the Opposition was in a virtual dead heat in terms of vot- clear in retrospect that they were not on the defensive. ing intentions — the NDP was slightly prepared to accept change simply for In the coming weeks, the NDP ahead but within the margin of error change’s sake. Indeed, in the end, the would hammer on this issue and argued — a more detailed look showed some- NDP’s popular vote went up by 5 per- that the Saskatchewan Party was plan- thing more. In some key policy areas cent, and though they lost some urban ning to dismantle those very instru- such as “handling the economy” and seats, they managed to capture some ments of public policy that were so “dealing with rural issues,” the seats in rural ridings where they had important to the building of the Saskatchewan Party had a clear advan- previously been shut out. The province and, arguably, to its future eco- tage, while the NDP was favoured to Saskatchewan Party’s vote declined nomic stability. The Saskatchewan Party “provide adequate social services” and slightly overall, and though they man- called this fear-mongering, but the abil- “preserve public health care.” But on aged to make inroads into the city of ity of the NDP to raise the spectre of the the more undefineable issues, such as Saskatoon, their disappointment at Saskatchewan Party as being blinkered “who do you trust” and who “would once again failing to unseat the govern- by their ideological commitment to all be the better premier,” Calvert out- ment — especially a government they things privatized, and to raise doubts polled Hermanson two to one. thought was more vulnerable this time about whether the party was being com- While the majority of voters around — was palpable. As a result, pletely forthright about its agenda, went expressed a desire for change (which Hermanson announced his intention deeper than mere fear-mongering. was true even for many of those who to resign as leader early in 2004.

26 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2004 Saskatchewan in the Calvert era: between continuity and change

aving secured their fourth succes- Of similar importance, as highlight- At the same time, however, there is H sive election victory (a feat not ed by the tone and substance of the some unease about the degree of accomplished since Tommy Douglas’s recent election debate, is the future role accountability of the Crowns to the six straight majority governments), of the major Crown corporations. Some provincial government, especially about the NDP now faces a number of chal- — but by no means all — international the extent to which the CIC invests in lenges of which any one could cause investments by the Crown Investment foreign business ventures and how such the government to stumble badly. Corporation (CIC) have been unsuccess- investments are evaluated. Of course, While this election allowed Calvert to ful. This, coupled with some ill- such criticisms might have been be receive his own mandate from the conceived local investments such as the more muted had fewer of these invest- electorate and thus marks the real millions pumped into a film production ments, such as those in Australian cable beginning of the Calvert era, he is still facility that is now under bankruptcy operations, failed to pay off. But the fact short of the new blood in the caucus protection, speaks to the need to review remains that the new government is that would mark a definitive break the role of the Crowns and their rela- going to have to confront the issue of with his predecessor. Calvert’s new tionship with the government. the advisability of investing in interna- cabinet is filled with many familiar Though some residents may love tional ventures at a time when venture faces, especially in most of the key to hate the Crown utilities — after all, and direct capital investment might be portfolios. no one likes the phone company — more wisely used to support the bur- The most pressing issue for the gov- they are at the same time deeply geoning service and knowledge econo- ernment may in fact be the one it has attached to the fact they “belong” to my within the province itself. the least control over — the state This brings us to one of the of the provincial economy. As The problems in the agricultural more important issues resonating the most recent budget con- sector, even though it is no longer through the politics of the firmed, the modest surpluses of the biggest part of the provincial province — the disturbing demo- the Romanow years are clearly at graphic profile that is emerging an end and the government will economy, are large enough to and its implications for the future effectively exhaust the so-called create a substantial drag on the of the province. On the one fiscal stabilization fund with province as a whole. Low hand, the fastest growing age which it has “balanced” its budg- international prices and declining cohort in the province is the one ets in the past few years. At the nearing retirement; younger resi- same time, as demands for markets for wheat and other crops, dents, especially those with post- increased spending on health the persistence of massive secondary education, seek care and education continue, it agricultural subsidies for US and EU economic opportunities outside seems clear that the province has farmers, the closing of markets for the province (and especially in a revenue problem. And the call neighbouring Alberta). On the in the budget for increases in a cattle as a result of BSE, and half a other hand, the province’s host of user fees and a 1 percent- decade of drought all highlight the Aboriginal population is also age point rise in the provincial grim adage that neither crime nor growing, and especially within sales tax, although not popular farming pays. the younger age cohorts. But the with the public, could well have latter population still suffers from been bigger had the federal government the people of the province, thus they the social pathologies that have persist- not provided a one-time compensation continue to serve an important public ently marked the lives of Canada’s payment for its over-zealous clawback of policy purpose. With a small popula- Aboriginal peoples. Thus, what should be resource revenues. The problems in the tion spread over a large territory, there the province’s greatest resource is, agricultural sector, even though it is no is little faith, for example, that a private through a combination of social and gov- longer the biggest part of the provincial telephone company would expend the ernment inertia, in danger of being tragi- economy, are large enough to create a kind of resources necessary to ensure cally wasted. substantial drag on the province as a access to high-speed internet across the whole. Low international prices and province as SaskTel did for a number of ooking ahead, two things are declining markets for wheat and other years. And as skyrocketing auto insur- L important for the Saskatchewan crops, the persistence of massive agricul- ance rates became an issue in a number Party. First, the party needs to attract a tural subsidies for US and EU farmers, of provincial elections over the past younger and more urban constituency the closing of markets for cattle as a year, there was a certain satisfaction to the party. The ascension, unop- result of BSE, and half a decade of that, thanks to SGI, Saskatchewan resi- posed, of Swift Current MLA drought all highlight the grim adage that dents enjoy some of the lowest auto to the party’s leadership may provide neither crime nor farming pays. insurance rates in the country. that opportunity.

POLICY OPTIONS 27 MAY 2004 Tom McIntosh and Howard Leeson

Second, despite its name, those in politics this is unprecedented. In an Alberta, the ability of the Saskatchewan charge of the development of policy in age of eight-second news clips, longevi- government to compensate farmers for the Saskatchewan Party seem to have lit- ty in government is not a virtue. As losses due to drought or closed borders tle understanding of the complexity of well, the NDP is likely to have the same for cattle or beef is severely constrained, the province’s political scene. In the leader, which may reinforce the percep- and the federal assistance to date has interval between 1999 and 2003 they tion that a change in government is proven insufficient. seemed to be confident that if they sim- needed. We also know that the fiscal More importantly, the rural “cri- sis” goes much further than If the Saskatchewan Party is going to move forward, it must the drought or the tempo- understand that it may have to modify its policies in order to rary dislocation caused by make them more acceptable to mainstream voters. This will BSE. The basis of the rural economy — the independ- require them to rethink such proposals as privatization of ent family farm — no major Crown corporations, simplistic tax reductions proposals, longer sustains in the man- and their approach to social services and Aboriginal peoples. ner in which it did a gener- ation or two ago. Modern ply proposed the Alberta model of devel- situation in the province is not likely to successful farms are either growing in opment to the people of Saskatchewan recover in the near future. size or adapting to small niche markets the election would be a foregone conclu- for more specialized crops. Factory sion. But party’s insistence in the cam- n order to win a fourth term the farming of livestock is both more wide- paign that they would not sell the I NDP capitalized on Calvert’s “trust- spread and more controversial in terms Crowns did not square with its adher- worthiness” with the electorate, and of its environmental impact. This con- ence over the previous four years to the on election night he staked out his centration of capital pushes rural resi- idea that free markets and the “Alberta claim to that territory. It remains to be dents into the cities, which further way” were the answer. If the seen if he is able to put together gov- contributes to the decline of rural com- Saskatchewan Party is going to move for- ernment policies that will respond to munities as all the things that signify ward, it must understand that it may the public’s desire for that amorphous “a community” disappear one by one have to modify its policies in order to quality. Indeed, the policy areas that — bank branches, schools and hospi- make them more acceptable to main- need the most attention and the most tals are closed; post offices are down- stream voters. This will require them to creativity are also those areas where sized; and so on. There are no easy rethink such proposals as privatization the Calvert government made little policy options that will either reverse of major Crown corporations, simplistic progress in the year and a half before or ease these transformations, and the tax reductions proposals, and their winning its own mandate. province’s urban residents are increas- approach to social services and Aborigi- First, he must respond in some pos- ingly uneasy about the cost of current nal peoples. Unless they do, it is not at itive way to the massive changes that farm support policies and programs. all clear that they will win an election at are taking place in rural Saskatchewan. In both the short and longer terms any time in the near future. In both the short and longer terms the government must All of these projects demonstrate to Saskatchewan’s Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal will take a bit of time. The government’s unpopular communities that it has the ability and the imagination to begin budget could induce the the process of bringing the two communities together. If the Saskatchewan Party to try province is to succeed in the 21st century, it cannot continue to to defeat the government ignore the untapped potential in the Aboriginal communities. in the legislature and force another election. It would be a risky strategy, but the idea of reversing The latest farm income statistics indi- the government must demonstrate to the outcome of the last election may be cate that we have suffered the single Saskatchewan’s Aboriginal and non- too tempting to resist. largest decline in agricultural income Aboriginal communities that it has the The problem for the New since 1921. In many respects the prob- ability and the imagination to begin the Democratic Party is more complex, and lems in rural areas remain a litmus test process of bringing the two communi- in some ways more difficult. When for successful public policy in the ties together. If the province is to suc- they head into the next election they province. But in real policy terms, much ceed in the 21st century, it cannot will be asking for a fifth successive of what can be done requires the assis- continue to ignore the untapped poten- mandate. In modern-day Canadian tance of other governments. Unlike in tial in the Aboriginal communities.

28 OPTIONS POLITIQUES MAI 2004 Saskatchewan in the Calvert era: between continuity and change

Yet, as recent data collected by the support for the agricultural sector — from Regina. With anger over the spon- Centre for Research and Information but another may soon move to the fore- sorship scandal already eroding support on Canada demonstrates, there is a front. A recent IRPP Choices study by in the West for the new prime minister, very wide gulf between the two com- Queen’s economist Thomas Courchene failing to take seriously the range of munities. While Canadians across the (March 2004) has revealed that every intergovernmental issues being articulat- country — including in Saskatchewan dollar raised from oil and gas in the ed from Western premiers (who are per- — may agree in the abstract that province results in a federal clawback of haps more united in their grievances “something must be done” about the slightly more than a dollar in equaliza- than in the past) might not only forestall appalling and shameful conditions in tion payments. If Courchene’s analysis Martin’s desire to increase the Liberal which the Aboriginal peoples live, is correct, then the province has been Party’s presence in the region, but also there is significant resistance to the short-changed of hundreds of millions threaten its already fragile support base. expansion of Aboriginal treaty rights in places Equalization, coupled with the intergovernmental aspects of the where the non- agricultural crisis and the future of the Aboriginal populations, Aboriginal population could serve to move the province away from its past role as a will most directly feel the impact of such an expan- “fixer” between the federal government and the more hardline sion. In the recent provincial governments and place it more firmly in the municipal elections in provincialist/decentralist camp. This would significantly change the province, MP Jim the intergovernmental dynamic and make relations between Pankiw — who has made a career of criticizing the the federal and provincial governments potentially more testy so-called reverse racism than they already are. of the policy toward Aboriginal people — placed a strong of dollars over the past number of years Saskatchewan has never worn the third with 23 percent of the vote in his and the pressure on the province to mantle of the “alienated Westerner” run for mayor of Saskatoon. This, take a hard line with Ottawa over a new very comfortably. It has, traditionally, along with the ongoing inquiry into equalization formula is only going to believed in both strong provincial and the actions of the Saskatoon city police grow. The $120 million Saskatchewan strong federal governments and it has with regard to the death of Neil recently received from Ottawa was done so out of necessity. In the recent Stonechild, speaks to a racial divide in deemed a one-time payment to correct health care debates, for example, the province that should be profound- some past errors in the application of Saskatchewan took the position that ly disturbing to any government. the formula. For the government of Ottawa’s funding should increase not Finally, Saskatchewan’s role in the Saskatchewan, it was merely a down because of a so-called fiscal imbalance federation may be changing. The payment on what it is owed. but because Ottawa had an obligation Romanow years were marked by a strong Equalization, coupled with the to Canadians to be involved in the commitment to collaborative federalism, intergovernmental aspects of the agri- future of medicare. But the multitude with the premier often trying to act as a cultural crisis and the future of the of pressures currently being placed on mediator between the federal govern- Aboriginal populations, could serve to the new Calvert administration may ment and some of his provincial coun- move the province away from its past mean that it will have to take a much terparts. But Calvert has neither the close role as a “fixer” between the federal harder line for its voice to be heard. personal relationship with the prime government and the more hardline Saskatchewan voters may have reject- minister that Romanow had (forged as it provincial governments and place it ed the Alberta model of economic was by their shared role in the constitu- more firmly in the provincialist/decen- development proposed by the tional battles of the 1980s), nor the sta- tralist camp. This would significantly Opposition, but Alberta-style intergov- tus that comes with being a long-serving change the intergovernmental dynamic ernmentalism may be more attractive premier (he is, after all, only a few and make relations between the federal in the face of federal inaction. months into his first real mandate). But and provincial governments potentially more importantly, perhaps, there is a more testy than they already are. Tom McIntosh is an assistant professor growing list of irritants that could push These issues could also directly of political science and a research faculty the province to take a much harder line affect the fortunes of the Martin govern- member of the Saskatchewan Population with Ottawa than it has in the past. ment in the next federal election. The Health and Evaluation Research Unit, Some of these have already been two most powerful westerners in . Howard Leeson is a discussed — the response to BSE and Cabinet are undoubtedly Anne McLellan professor in and chair of the Department the closing of the borders, and financial from Edmonton and Ralph Goodale of Political Science, University of Regina.

POLICY OPTIONS 29 MAY 2004