Building a Sustainable Wind Energy Industry AfricaAfrica’’’’ss Natural Advantages Key Design Features of 1.5MW PMDD and Fleet Availability
Building a Sustainable Wind Energy Industry AfricaAfrica’ ’’’ss Natural Advantages
From a manufacturer and wind farm investors’ perspective: covering key trends in Wind Power markets and technologies:
– What technologies and business models are best suited to Africa?
– Where are the investment dollars likely to go?
– What decisions will drive efficient use of capital, resources and ultimately return the most value to the community?
2 About Goldwind
The first and most established wind turbine manufacturer in the Chinese market: ― Over 20 years history ― Strong customer base, order book and production capability ― International R&D ― Impressive financial performance and backing ― Bankable products, with certification testing and quality control to international standards ― Total installations of over 6000 wind turbines and 7.0 GW*
The Goldwind group of companies operates in a growing number of countries around the world in the areas of: ― Wind turbine manufacturing ― Project development and financing ― Wind farm construction ― Wind farm operation and maintenance services
*As of August 1, 2010 3 Market position 2009
In 20092009, Goldwind was the 555ththth largest wind turbine supplier globally, gaining significant market share over our number 9 rank in 2008
Goldwind had approximately 21% of cumulative installations in China at the end of 2009.
Source: BTM Consult March 2010 4 Market position – 2010 Update
For the first 6 Months of 2010 Goldwind sold 5292MW5292MW**
Source: Bloomberg NEF 11 Oct 2011, Vestas website 11 Nov 2011 ** Beijing Gao Hua Securities (Goldman Sachs) Earnings Review, 17th August 2010
5 World Wind Industry – Installed Capacity
Source: Bloomberg NEF 11 Oct 2010 6 What Happened?
7 Barriers to an African Wind Industry
Technical Barriers — Adapting designs to suit the local conditions, approvals, connection and certification
— Technology, international trends moving away from DFIG
Establishing the right conditions for Investment — Feed in tariffs — Clear long term targets and policies
Financial barriers — Raising equity and debt
Encouraging competition/Small market — Strong competition in the current wind turbine market 8 New Market Barriers to Entry – Unique Demands
USA — Varied conditions, ranging from high elevation conditions to desert. All classes of WTG. — Only high yield turbines (high swept area to generator size) likely to be used due to very difficult project economics
Australia — Varied conditions, ranging from coastal temperate conditions to desert. Generally suited to IEC Class I or II (higher wind sites) — Banks very concerned with certification and may not tolerate generic certification or change of components w/o re certification — All about grid connection, sophisticated dynamic modelling needs to be carried out due to typically “stringy” network
Africa — Generally hot and dry conditions, unlikely to be large coastal wind farms suited to IEC Class III certified turbines (lower wind sites) — Desert issues – sandstorms, dust — Typically weak grid conditions — Generally grid standards are only now being developed and may be more flexible (but potentially time consuming) to get connection approvals
9 New Market Barriers Major trend moving away from DFIG
DDPM Technology – Forward Trend Trend Reason for Change Direct Eliminate failure of Drive gearboxes Eliminate gearbox energy losses Reduce number of Direct Drive parts required to less Permanent than half Magnet Full Power Generator Converter (100% of full- Permanent Better fault ride rating) Magnet through/zero power Generator requirement to Gearbox DFIG – Incumbent Technology energize Eliminate secondary winding losses Eliminate slip rings and associated maintenance Full Power Grid friendly Converter More control and DFIG operational flexibility Meet Future Grid Double-Fed Induction Codes and Gearbox Power Converter Generator (30% of full- Requirements 111 rating)
10 Global top 10 Current and Future Technology
Company Production Turbines Technological Indicated Future History Turbine Technology Direct Permanent Full Power Drive Magnet Converter
Vestas Yes Yes Gearbox DFIG Gearbox driven PM full power converter
GEGEGE Yes Yes Gearbox DFIG DDPM
Sinovel Gearbox DFIG Gearbox DFIG Enercon Yes Yes Wound Rotor DD Wound Rotor DD Goldwind Yes Yes Yes 7 yrs of 1MW+ DDPM DDPM Siemens Yes Yes Gearbox DFIG DDPM
Suzlon Gearbox DFIG Unknown Repower Gearbox DFIG Unknown Gamesa Yes Yes Gearbox DFIG Unknown Dong Fang Gearbox DFIG DDPM
11 New Market Barriers Major trend, moving away from DFIG
Goldwind, GE, Siemens and Vestas new machines all utilize permanent magnet technology and full power converters.
Goldwind, GE and Siemens have also announced to the market that their “next generation” of turbine will be Permanent Magnet Direct Drive (PMDD)
Siemens installed a 3MW, 101m rotor direct drive turbine prototype in July 2008 expect these turbines to be available in 2011 2012
In the second half of 2009, GE acquired Scanwind and have advertised this “revolutionary” design as the future of wind in many press releases and publications including Popular Science, April 2010
Source: Popular Science, Renewable Energy World.com 12 Local manufacturing and Physical Presence
Initial SeedSeed; Construction and erection of pilot projects may be necessary in order to make a start in a new market
Local EmploymentEmployment; In many markets it is very important to use local staff to make local connections, need planning to attract appropriate local staff with sufficient experience
Regionalised O&MO&M; Need to be able to respond to machine outages, development of after sales/O&M service teams capability is very important
Supply ChainsChains; Components may be local or imported, however, supply chains for all components including quality auditing need to be established
Critical MassMass; Building a sufficient fleet/reputation/presence in the industry is key to market entry, can be easier/faster to do this as part of a strategic alliance with a developer
13 Source: Vestas, Nacelle Assembly, Tasmania. Cost/Risk Optimisation and Local Manufacturing
Additional Government SupportSupport; Many markets offer government support for setting up local manufacturing or might assist the developer in getting their project approvals
Nacelle AssemblyAssembly; Can be cost effective for relatively low numbers of turbines. Good potential first step for local manufacturing
Tower ManufacturingManufacturing; Towers are usually expensive to transport due to their size and manufacturing is relatively simple. Particularly interesting where there are good large local steel manufacturers near wind sites (South Africa). Also may help significantly in localisation of costs
Blade ManufacturingManufacturing; More difficult than towers to manufacture but similarly, savings are likely on transportation costs. Due to the relative costs of the blades (typ. 20 25% of turbines) can significantly help to localise currency which is desirable for developers
Acquisition /partnership with local manufacturing facilities/companiesacilities/com paniespanies; Can be significantly cheaper than starting from scratch plus very helpful to acquire good local staff/supply chains/relationships. May be a far faster route to market than building new facilities
Transportation cost modellingmodelling; Can be very complex and dependent on many factors including fuel price, availability of cargo space, FOREX, etc.
Local manufacturing will aid market penetrationpenetration; In many countries some sort of local manufacturing will make a very big difference to market perceptions of the product and ultimately turbine sales 14 Africa Friendly Design – Smaller, Generators, Smaller Cranes and Lower Maintenance
The use of permanent magnets in the generator rotor removes the need for excitation of rotor windings, slip rings, brushes and associated maintenance
Permanent magnets also allow for a smaller physical structure, removing weight and enabling easier transportation
3. Stator ― Simple and compact structure Windings and a lightweight design Reduction in diameter due to PMPMPM ― Multi polar, low speed 4. Permanent 5. Rotor Magnet Windings
― High power to weight ratio Generator Diameter 1. Rotor ― No excitation losses
2. Stator 1. ― No requirement for excitation Rotor 3. Stator 2. Stator slip rings and brushes Windings Wound Rotor Goldwind Excitation Permanent Magnet ― External diameter of WTG is Generator Generator smaller than wound rotor designs 15 Africa Friendly Design – Weak Grid Capable Connectivity
Variable Speed Technology ― Passive diode rectifier: high efficiency, low EMI ― Very low harmonics to the grid ― Automatic adjustment to 50 Hz or 60 Hz ― Measured and certified low voltage ride through ― Full reactive power control ― High reliability: air cooling, robust converter control ― Good serviceability: modular design with fast IGBT exchange
“Low tech converter” of highly integrated IGBT modules ― Integrated current sensor ― Integrated temperature sensor ― Integrated heat sink ― Integrated driving circuit & protection
16 Africa Friendly Design – Near Zero Maintenance Hubs
The blade pitch system in the 1.5MW direct drive hub is designed to be largely maintenance free
The following design changes have been made in comparison to common pitch systems where frequent maintenance is required:
― Toothed belts are used in place of spur gears
― AC pitch drives are employed instead of DC motors
― Ultra Capacitors are used in place of lead acid or gel cell batteries for the emergency stop/over speed safety system
17 African Wind Projects Raising Equity and Debt
Non recourserecourse; Stand alone, non recourse project financing often preferred/necessary for wind farms GearingGearing; Banks typically willing to loan up to 70% or 80% (vary depending on bank and market). In the US currently this is more likely to be 50% Debt CoverageCoverage; Restrictions on minimum DSCR (vary depending on bank and market) WTG Sales TermsTerms; Turbine supply terms/structures: 1. Minimum warrantee period 5 years or longer now in most markets 2. 97% Availability industry standard plus at least 95% power curve 3. Need adequate securities 4. EPC type arrangement favoured by banks but generally structure is very important
HistoryHistory; Turbine history/success/certification/production volume very important together with developer history/success and financial position of WTG supplier AvailabilityAvailability; In most markets banks are still eager to lend to the right developers, but cost of debt has risen through the financial crisis and banks are increasingly looking at technical/commercial details
Local RequirementsRequirements; Local currencies and country risk/exposure 18 International Offices and Operating Turbines
Germany 15 WTG Russia -Nuenkirchen Office Poland 2 WTG - 2 Manufacturing Canada 3 WTG Plants 8 WTG China 3,000 WTG Spain & Bulgaria USA 8 Manufacturing Plants Portugal 3 WTG 6 WTG Pakistan Numerous Offices 8 WTG -Chicago Office 5 WTG India -Manufacturing to 50 WTG be announced
Brazil 57 WTG
South Africa -Capetown Australia Office - Sydney Office - Melbourne Office
Approximately 3000 PMDD Wind Turbines Globally (4.6GW) Offices in South Africa, China, Australia, Germany and USA
19 Uilk Wind Farm Minnesota, USA 3 x Goldwind 77m Rotor 1.5MW
20 Regionalised O&M, RENEW Energy Maintenance, USA
RENEW Energy Maintenance LLC , a Midwest based wind turbine service company, has entered into a multiyear strategic relationship with Goldwind USA Inc. RENEW Energy Maintenance will provide operations and maintenance services to Goldwind USA and for projects owned by Goldwind's affiliates.
"We are impressed with Goldwind's turbine technology, including their utilization of direct drive power transmission, and are excited about the opportunity to grow with Goldwind's expanding North American presence,"
“The partnership could create 25 to 35 U.S. local operations and maintenance jobs over the next few years, with the potential for more job growth”
Source; P. Mikel, president of RENEW Energy Maintenance, www.nawindpower.com 21 1.5MW Rotor Lifting (Germany)
22 VENSYS Production Facilities (Germany)
23 German/Chinese Collaboration 2.5 MW PMDD Turbine
First prototype 2.5MW was installed at year end 2009, 5 units currently operating in China, 1 in northern Germany
Goldwind is currently ramping up serial production, with 40 units to be installed in 2010
Domestic and International certification is now in progress and will be completed later early 2011
Availability for international markets including Europe, USA, Australia , Asia (ex. China) and Africa to be announced
24 German Chinese Collaboration Near Shore and Offshore
25 1.5MW Direct Drive Erection (Germany)
26 Goldwind Production Facilities (China)
27 Summary
For wind manufacturers to truly succeed in markets such as Africa they must continue to develop a localised supply chains in each market (particularly blades and towers).
It is important to draw on the best practices, expertise, and technology from numerous countries, especially Germany, Denmark, China and U.S.
In the case of Goldwind, our strategy relies on globalization through localization. Our success in bringing innovative technology to global markets depends on utilizing local manufacturing, management, and suppliers that create local jobs.
Our number one goal is to continue producing clean, cost efficient renewable energy. We look forward to working with the international community to support the further development of wind power globally
28 Questions ?
Garth Heron
Director of Business Development Goldwind International Goldwind Science & Techonology Co.,Ltd Add: Floor 20, Tower A, Gemdale Plaza, 91 Jianguo Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100022
E Mail: [email protected]