Aviation Demand Forecasts

BELLINGHAM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MASTER PLAN UPDATE Chapter 3 Aviation Demand Forecasts

Prepared by:

Leibowitz & Horton AMC JUB Engineers, Inc.

3 FORECAST OF DEMAND

3.1 INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this chapter is to prepare updated forecasts of aviation demand for Bellingham International Airport (BLI). Forecasting is a key element in the planning process. Information contained in the forecasts is essential for determining future airport requirements, analyzing alternative development plans, assessing possible environmental effects of proposed plans, and determining the economic implications of future growth and development.

Forecasts of activity presented in this chapter are to be used as guidelines for the formulation of the long-range development program for the airport. Implementation of the various facility improvement projects recommended as an outgrowth of these forecasts should be based on activity reaching the demand levels related to the associated facilities and not on adherence to the timetable (yearly dates) presented as part of the forecasts. The timeline is presented only as a possible model of the logical progression of activity as it increases with time.

Forecast Time Frame and Base Year Updated aeronautical activity estimates for BLI were prepared for the short, intermediate, long-range, and extended range time frames which equate to 2003 - 2007, 2008 – 2012, 2013 - 2022, and 2050 respectively. The year 2000 will be used as the basis for comparing BLI forecasts with the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF). Year 2003 has been selected as the first year of the

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forecast in order to provide the Port with a full 5-year, detailed Capital Improvement Program (CIP) upon completion of the Plan, which is anticipated for the end of 2002.

3.2 DEMAND ELEMENTS

There are numerous kinds of activity occurring on an airport on a daily, monthly, and yearly basis. The level and kind of activity depends on many factors and usually reflects the services available to passengers and aircraft, meteorological conditions under which the airport operates (daily and seasonally), and businesses located on the airport facility or within the community the airport serves. Activities that are forecast for BLI include passengers, based aircraft, aircraft operations, and aircraft types. These are general forecast categories. Several additional forecasts have been derived from these. Specifically, forecasts were prepared for the following:

• Airline Activity • Passenger enplanements • Passenger deplanements • Aircraft load factor • Aircraft operational fleet mix • Aircraft operations • Peaking characteristics

• General Aviation Activity • Aircraft operations • Aircraft operational peaking • Based aircraft • Based aircraft fleet mix

• Military Activity • Aircraft operations

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• Total Airfield Aircraft Operational Activity • Itinerant, local, and total aircraft operations • Airfield peaking characteristics • Aircraft operational fleet mix

• Critical Aircraft and Operations Activity • The Critical Aircraft • Critical Aircraft Operations

3.3 SUMMARY

Exhibit 3-1, shown on the following page, presents and compares the master plan forecast with the FAA Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), a task which is part of FAA requirements for preparation of the master plan update forecast. It is important to note that the comparison shown in Exhibit 3-1 is between the forecast contained in this chapter (prepared based on 1999 TAF data with some calendar year 2000 data from BLI records), and 2000 TAF data. Consequently, some activity categories shown in Exhibit 3-1 (based on 2000 TAF) will vary slightly from data presented throughout the chapter (based on 1999 TAF).

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Exhibit 3-1: Forecast Summary and Comparison

Forecast Element Year Historical FAA MP/TAF FAA TAF MPU MPU for 2000 TAF (% 15 Yr Avg 15 Yr Avg 50 Yr Avg & MPU Difference) Ann’l Growth Ann’l Growth Ann’l Growth Forecast Rate 2 Rate 3 Rate 3 Enplanements - Air Carrier Base Year (Historical) 2000 19,737 19,737 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 13,036 19,737 66.0% 0.0% -2.73% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 54,649 2.1% Enplanements – Commuter/Air Taxi Base Year (Historical) 2000 92,208 92,208 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 117,613 120,547 97.6% 1.8% 1.64% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 220,427 1.8% Enplanements- TOTAL Base Year (Historical) 2000 111,945 111,945 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 130,649 140,284 93.1% 1.5% 1.04% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 275,076 1.8% Commercial Ops. - Air Carrier Base Year (Historical) 2000 510 510 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 1,191 510 233.5% 0.0% 5.82% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 4,084 4.2% Commercial Ops. – Commuter/Air Taxi Base Year (Historical) 2000 22,086 22,086 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 9,799 25,641 38.2% 1.0% -5.27% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 9,722 -1.6% Air Carrier & Commuter/Air Taxi TOTAL COMMERCIAL OPS. Base Year (Historical) 2000 22,596 22,596 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 10,990 26,151 42.0% 1.0% -4.69% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 13,806 -1.0% GA Itinerant Operations Base Year (Historical) 2000 36,696 36,696 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 50,200 47,955 104.7% 1.8% 2.11% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 75,449 1.5% GA Local Operations Base Year (Historical) 2000 26,636 26,636 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 30,768 34,808 88.4% 1.8% 0.97% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 46,243 1.1% GA TOTAL Itinerant and Local Operations Base Year (Historical) 2000 63,332 63,332 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 80,967 82,763 97.8% 1.8% 1.65% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 121,692 1.3% Commercial / GA / Military/Cargo - TOTAL OPERATIONS Base Year (Historical) 2000 87,273 87,273 100.0% Base yr. + 15 Years 1 2015 100,175 100,259 90.9% 1.6% 0.92% Base yr. + 50 Years 2050 152,817 1.1%

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Exhibit 3-1 (cont.): Forecast Summary and Comparison

3.4 HISTORICAL ACTIVITY

3.4.1 Summary

The previous Master Plan Update for Bellingham International Airport was completed in mid-1997, with forecasts based on activity data from 1988 through 1995. Since completion of the Plan Update, the Airport has experienced fluctuations in both passenger traffic and aircraft operations with both sharp declines and significant rebounds. To gain a better perspective on the long-term trends at the Airport, a longer than usual historical period has been selected as a basis for this analysis. The historical reporting period selected this master plan update extends from 1985 through year-end 2000, the last year for which data was available. Passenger and operations levels for this period are discussed on the following pages.

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3.4.2 Enplaned Passengers

Historically, enplaned passengers at BLI have shown considerable 160,000 fluctuation on a year-by year basis. However, the overall long- 140,000 120,000 term trend in enplaned passengers is positive. During the period 100,000 80,000 between 1985 and 2000, annual enplaned passenger levels at BLI 60,000

40,000 grew from approximately 33,700 in 1985 to 114,000 in 2000. This

20,000 1985 1990 1995 2000 represents more than a 300 percent increase overall and an average

BLI Enplaned Passenger compound annual compound growth rate of 7.9 percent. In fact, enplaned annual growth 1985 to 2000 averaged passengers reached a high of nearly 152,000 in 1993 before pulling 7.9 percent per year. back to under 92,000 by 1999. Enplaned passengers rebounded in 2000 to 114,00 at the close of the reporting period.

Between 1985 and 2000, enplaned passengers at the national level grew at an average annual compound growth rate of 3.1 percent, while passengers within the FAA’s Northwest Mountain Region (ANM) grew at a 3.8 percent rate. As a result, even with the wide fluctuations in enplaned passengers at BLI, the average rate of growth was more than double the national and regional rates as shown below:

10.0% • 1985 – 2000 Historical Per Annum Growth Rates 8.0% − 7.9 percent for BLI 6.0% − 3.1 percent for the nation 4.0% − 3.8 percent for the ANM

2.0% Note: The 2000 through 2015 FAA Terminal Area Forecast

0.0% of enplanements for BLI projects a 1.56-% per annual growth rate. National ANM BLI

Comparison of Average Annual The reasons for the wide swings in enplaned passengers at BLI are Enplaned Passenger Growth Rates believed to be related to the pricing and availability of air service 1985 to 2000 to the community rather than to specific local socio-economic factors. Due to the complexity of this issue, a separate discussion has been prepared under Section 3.5 – Historical Air Service Perspective.

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Exhibit 3-2 on the following page summarizes a 15-year history of passenger and operations activity at BLI from 1985 through year-end 2000.

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Exhibit 3-2: Summary of Historical Activity

Enplaned Passengers Operations Air Air Taxi/ Air Air Taxi/ General Year Total Military Total Carrier Commuter Carrier Commuter Aviation 19851 3,000 30,698 33,698 -- 12,000 48,553 842 61,395 19861 40,827 23,637 64,464 1,800 12,600 32,432 203 47,035 19871 63,490 18,380 81,870 1,889 12,779 34,409 203 49,280 19881 88,431 19,942 108,373 1,978 20,000 51,000 350 73,328 19891 81,647 5,729 87,376 2,789 18,487 63,663 753 85,692 19901 85,261 24,735 109,996 3,994 13,869 56,903 722 75,488 19911 63,199 65,013 128,212 2,713 15,587 57,972 721 76,993 19921 42,729 76,142 118,871 1,469 19,793 63,146 790 85,198 19931 46,459 105,259 151,718 1,083 19,016 58,894 1,031 80,024 19941 25,125 108,506 133,631 813 19,398 63,316 1,472 84,999 19951 22,015 104,022 126,037 1,026 20,489 58,216 1,777 81,508 19961 28,178 94,887 123,065 671 23,190 59,317 1,373 84,551 19971 24,433 87,125 111,558 705 20,682 57,827 1,647 80,861 19981 9,732 84,352 94,084 402 20,709 47,637 1,848 70,596 19991 2,711 88,953 91,664 137 22,008 57,384 1,347 80,876 20002 -- -- 113,925 479 22,347 65,489 1,415 89,730 Sources: 1FAA TAF Database. Fiscal Years 2000 to 2015, FAA-APO-00-7, December 2000 2Based on Bellingham International Airport records. Only total for enplaned passenger is shown due to differences in classification between BLI and FAA of air carrier and air taxi/commuter activities.

Historical Enplanements Historical Operations 100,000 160,000 140,000 80,000 120,000 60,000 100,000 80,000 40,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 - - 1985 1990 1995 2000 1985 1990 1995 2000 Air Carrier Air Taxi/Commuter Air Carrier Ai r Taxi /Com m uter General Aviation Military

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3.4.3 Aircraft Activity

Understanding the character and extent of operations at BLI is important to determining long-term facility requirements at the airport. Total annual operations are presented in Exhibit 3-2, shown above, according to the following categories: 100,000 90,000 • Air Carrier 80,000 70,000 • Air Taxi/Commuter 60,000 50,000 • 40,000 General Aviation 30,000 20,000 • Military. 10,000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000

The FAA defines an aircraft operation as either a takeoff or a Total operations fluctuated within a landing. An air carrier operation is considered to be a takeoff or narrow range throughout the mid- landing by a commercial scheduled air carrier aircraft with a 1990’s. Overall 1985 to 2000 operations growth averaged 2.3 seating capacity of 60 or more seats. Charter operations with percent annually. aircraft with seating of greater than 60 are also included in the air carrier category, for the purposes of this study. Commuter operations include takeoffs and landings by scheduled commercial flights with 60 or fewer seats. Air taxi operations include takeoffs and landings of commercial aircraft of 60 or fewer seats on a non- scheduled or for-hire (charter) basis. General aviation operations are those takeoffs or landings not classified as commercial or military.

Later, in the demand forecasts, general aviation and military operations will be further divided into local and itinerant operations. Local operations are defined as aircraft activity remaining within the airport traffic pattern, within sight of the airport, or known to remain within a 25-mile radius of the airport. All activity not classified as local is considered itinerant.

Differences between FAA and airport definitions or classification systems can make traffic data collected by the FAA appear inconsistent with data collected by the airport. For example, an operation by a commercial airline commonly considered a

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“regional carrier” within the market place would be categorized as an "air carrier” operation if flown by an aircraft with more than 60 seats. Consequently, Horizon Air, a regional carrier currently operating the 60+ seat Dash 8-400 aircraft would be classified as an air carrier operation by FAA while the airport activity reports might record the same activity as an air taxi/commuter operation. A Horizon Air flight using a Dash 8/200 would be classified by FAA as air taxi/commuter. Consequently, two operations by the same carrier could be attributed to separate operations categories. To the extent possible, this Master Plan Update uses FAA operations and forecast data contained within the most current Terminal Area Forecasts for BLI. The FAA data is being used because of the consistent historical record it provides in addition to long-term forecasts for comparison purposes.

Overall, annual operations fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the mid-1990s with larger swings in activity early and late in the period. Historical averages show that general aviation has contributed approximately 72 percent of total operations at BLI, followed by air taxi/commuter operations (24 percent), air carrier operations (2 percent) and military (1 percent).

Air Carrier Activity

4,500 Air carrier operations peaked in 1990 – 1991, and after exhibiting a 4,000 3,500 sharp drop-off between 1992 and 1994, have continued a slower 3,000 2,500 decline through year 2000. The overall long-term trend for air 2,000 1,500 carrier activity is an average 8.5 percent per year decline over the 1,000 500 reporting period (see Exhibit 3-2). While enplaned passengers 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 experienced a 1990 to 1991 “spike” at the same time as air carrier

Air carrier operations exhibited an operations, passenger levels have continued to grow over time in average 8.5 percent per year decline contrast to generally declining air carrier operations. between 1985 and Year 2000.

In addition, air taxi/commuter operations showed peaks both immediately preceding and following the air carrier 1990 – 1991 peak (see Air Taxi/Commuter Activity discussion below), with air

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taxi/commuter operations dipping in 1990 – 1991. From this it may be inferred that, as passenger levels continued to grow, changes occurred in the size of aircraft used by the carriers, with larger aircraft in use during the 1990 – 1991 time frame.

Air Taxi/Commuter Activity Since 1985, air taxi/commuter operations at BLI have averaged 25,000 nearly 4 percent annual growth. Operations nearly doubled over 20,000 the reporting period as air taxi/commuter takeoffs and landings 15,000 have comprised approximately 25 percent of total annual 10,000 operations. 5,000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000

As noted under the air carrier operations discussion above, air Air taxi/commuter operations nearly taxi/commuter operations have, to a degree, appeared to move doubled, averaging 4 percent per contrary to air carrier activity, i.e., dropping as air carrier activity year growth between 1985 and Year 2000. increases and then resuming upward movement as air carrier operations dropped off.

General Aviation Activity

Combined General Aviation (GA) itinerant and local operations 70,000 increased slightly more than 30 percent between 1985 and 2000 60,000 50,000 representing a compound annual growth rate of 1.8 percent. GA 40,000 30,000 operations rapidly expanded between 1987 and 1990 followed by 20,000 an extended period of minor increases and decreases. Activity 10,000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 dipped between 1998 and 1999, but rebounded again in 2000.

General aviation total operations During the 1985 to 2000 reporting period, GA operations averaged grew at an average annual rate of 1.8 percent while constituting 72 72 percent of total operations at BLI. Itinerant GA Operations percent of total BLI operations. averaged 65 percent of total GA activity with the remaining 35 percent of GA operations classified as local.

An important component of GA activity is the fleet mix of aircraft based at the airport. Exhibit 3-3 presents a recent history of the based aircraft fleet mix for BLI.

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Exhibit 3-3: Historical Based Aircraft

Type 19971 19982 19992 20003 Single-Engine 129 129 157 163 Multi-Engine/Turboprop 5 -- 5 7 Turbo Fan -- 3 3 3 Rotor 3 3 5 2 Ultralight 1 1 -- -- Total 138 136 170 175 Sources: 1Washington State Aviation System Plan, WSDOT Aviation Div., 1998 2Bellingham International Airport Records 3Current FAA form 5010

Military Activity

Between 1985 and 2000, military operations increased 60 percent 2,000 1,800 from 842 to 1,347. Operations peaked in 1998 with nearly 1,850 1,600 1,400 takeoffs and landings before declining to current levels. Even so, 1,200 1,000 800 the average annual growth rate for military operations through the 600 400 end of the reporting period was approximately 3 percent. 200 - 1985 1990 1995 2000

As with GA, military activity is classified as itinerant or local Military operations increased nearly 60 percent and grew at an depending on the nature of the operation. Itinerant operations average annual rate of 3 percent. constituted, on average, 68 percent of the total military operations logged at the airport. However, although total military operations increased over time, the relative percentage of itinerant operations showed a clear decline. This suggests a trend to increased local military training activity over flight operations beyond the airport area.

Air Charter Activity The classification system used by the FAA in its Terminal Area Forecasts aggregates air charter activity into the air taxi/commuter category for aircraft of 60 seats or less. The FAA does not have a category for charter operations by larger aircraft of more than 60 seats. At BLI, Casino Express operates charter flights to gambling destinations using Boeing 737-series aircraft.

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In year 2000, Casino Express carried over 15 percent of the enplaned BLI passengers making it the third largest passenger carrier at the airport ranked only behind Horizon Air and United Express/Skywest. Over the past five years, Casino Express has carried an average of 4.5 percent of the enplaned passengers at the airport. As a result, enplaned passenger and operations forecasts for BLI must take into account the contribution to activity by the large destination-charter operators at the airport.

3.4.4 Freight and Mail

Based on the most recent activity data available from BLI, in the five-year period since 1996, 15 separate carriers have, at various times, engaged in providing freight and mail service. Six of those carriers are dedicated freight operators, the remaining are passenger and air taxi service providers carrying freight in the cargo compartment of the passenger aircraft. By 2000, nearly 85 percent of all enplaned and deplaned freight was carried by three carriers, Empire Airlines/FedEx, Ameriflight Inc., and Horizon Air. Overall, 60 percent of freight moved on dedicated freight carrier aircraft while approximately 40 percent moved on passenger aircraft. Over the past five years, freight volumes have declined slightly, particularly in 1998 and 1999; however, volumes began to recover again in 2000. Total enplaned/deplaned freight volumes are presented in Exhibit 3-4.

During the past five years, a single carrier, Horizon Air, transported all enplaned and deplaned mail. In contrast to the decline in freight, mail volumes increased sharply in 1997 and 1998. By 1998, mail volumes were 66 percent higher than 1996 levels. However, they declined rapidly and by 2000, showed a net increase of approximately 20.0 percent over 1996 levels for a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.0 percent.

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Exhibit 3-4: Historical Freight and Mail by Carrier Type (in pounds)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Enplaned/Deplaned Freight Passenger Carriers 1,989,788 1,704,443 1,161,859 1,271,434 1,524,971 Cargo/Freight Carriers 2,252,656 2,355,246 2,480,166 2,351,544 2,299,021 Total Enplaned/Deplaned Freight 4,242,444 4,059,689 3,642,025 3,622,978 3,823,992 Enplaned/Deplaned Mail Passenger Carriers 21,241 29,847 35,276 30,183 25,788 Cargo/Freight Carriers 0000 0 Total Enplaned/Deplaned Mail 21,241 29,847 35,276 30,183 25,788 Source: Bellingham International Airport Records

3.4.5 Socioeconomic Trends

The Bellingham/Whatcom County area offers a diverse economy able to capitalize upon its location situated between the Seattle/Puget Sound region and Vancouver, British Columbia. According to figures published by the Washington State Office of Financial Management/Forecasting, between 1990, and 2000, Whatcom County population increased 28 percent from approximately 128,000 to 164,000, for a compound annual growth rate of over 2 percent per year. The Bellingham & Whatcom County Economic Development Council reports over 2 million people currently live within a 50-mile radius of the county.

Bellingham and Whatcom County offer a well-educated work force with three institutions of higher learning including Western Washington University, the State’s third largest university, Whatcom Community College and Bellingham Technical College. Student enrollment at the three institutions is approximately 21,000.

The Bellingham/Whatcom County area offers a variety of transportation options. Interstate highway access via I-5 (north/south) runs through the area and major east/west highways are accessible immediately north of the U.S./Canada border and via Highway 2 and I-90 to the south. Air transportation service is

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available locally at BLI, as well as at major air carrier airports in Seattle and Vancouver, B.C. Water transportation is available by the Port of Bellingham’s link to the Alaska Marine Highway system, other Port facilities, as well as the ports of Seattle and Vancouver, B.C. Lastly, rail carriers serving the community include Amtrak passenger service, Burlington-Northern, Santa Fe, and, Canadian Pacific and Canada Rail across the U.S./Canada border.

The local economy consists of older mature industries such as agriculture, timber and fishing, combined with rapidly growing new industries including:

• Engineering, research and related services • Electronic equipment and components • Computer equipment and software • Transportation equipment • Measuring and controlling devices • Transportation services and distribution • Communications • Sports and recreation products • Business services • Educational services • Health services

Bellingham/Whatcom County employment, by industry type, is presented in Exhibit 3-5. As is apparent from the information, retail trade employs the highest percentage of the area workforce at over 24 percent. This is consistent with the high level of retail activity in the area resulting from Canadian shoppers traveling from the Vancouver, B.C. area to take advantage of local U.S. retail outlets.

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Exhibit 3-5: Percentage of Employment by Industry Type

Industry Type Percentage of Employment Agriculture & Fishing 4.4% Mining 0.2% Construction 6.8% Manufacturing 14.5% Transportation & Utilities 4.0% Wholesale Trade 4.2% Retail Trade 24.3% Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 3.6% Services 23.5% Government 14.5% Total 100.00% Source: Bellingham & Whatcom County Economic Development Council, November 2001

Three common socio-economic indicators used in forecasting passenger activity include population, employment and per capita income. Experience has shown that these three indicators provide insight into the financial strength and well-being of the local economy and often correlate closely to the level of passenger activity and aircraft ownership and operation at a given airport. A brief historical overview of each of these indicators for the Bellingham/Whatcom County area is presented below.

Population

400,000 Long-term population projections for Bellingham and Whatcom

350,000 County anticipate continued growth. The Washington State Office 300,000 250,000 of Financial Management/Forecasting (OFM) projects Whatcom 200,000 150,000 County population to reach 204,000 by 2010 and grow as high as 100,000 50,000 247,000 by 2020. The OFM population forecasts assume a - 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.0 percent –

Based on Washington OFM consistent with historic trends. growth rate assumptions, Whatcom County population could more than double by Assuming population growth continues at the same 2.0 percent 2050. annual rate beyond 2020, Whatcom County population could be

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expected to reach nearly 370,000, more than double over 2000 levels by the end of the 50-year forecast horizon.

Employment Bellingham and Whatcom County top 50 privately owned companies ranked by revenue, and their respective employee levels are presented in Exhibit 3-6, on the next page.

During the 1990’s, Whatcom County employment increased by approximately 25.0 percent from 57,804 in 1990 to 71,993 by the end of the decade, or 2.2 percent annually. Although long-term employment forecasts for Whatcom County through the end of the planning period are not available, the statistical correlation between past County population and employment is very strong. Given that long-term population forecasts are available, this strong correlation could be useful in the forecasting effort.

Per Capita Income Over the 10-year period between 1990 and 1999, per capita income in Whatcom County increased nearly 34.0 percent compared to a 19.0-percent increase statewide during the same period. Locally, per capita income grew at an annual rate of approximately 3.0 percent, significantly above the 1.7-percent annual growth rate for Washington State as a whole.

Whatcom County per capita income growth correlated well with County employment and population levels with r2 values of 0.94 and 0.93 respectively.

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Exhibit 3-6: Top 50 Privately Owned Companies (by Revenue)

Rank Company Business Type Employees 1 Haggen, Inc. Food Retail 4000 2 Brown & Cole, Inc. Food Retail 2500 3 Trillium Corp. Property Developer 587 4 Jerry Chambers Car Dealership 102 5 Exxel Pacific Inc. Construction 50+ 6 Bellingham Marine Industries Marine/Dock Construction 200 7 Ryzex Group Remanufacture comp. 200 8 Dawson Construction Construction 100 9 Diehl Ford Inc. Car Dealership 95 10 Yorkston Oil Petroleum Products 60 11 Homestead Northwest Residential Developer 156 12 Bornstein Seafoods Seafood Processing 50 13 Impero Contracting Contractor 70 14 Whatcom Farmers Coop Farm Equip., supplies 100 15 Roger Jobs Motors Car Dealership 36 16 Exports of Wash., Inc. Investment Co. 260 17 Keith Oil Co. Fuel Distributor/retailer 10 18 Diamond B Constructors Construction 75 19 Wilson Motors, Inc. Car Dealership 45 20 Bellingham Chrysler Car Dealership 51 21 Pioneer Ford Car Dealership 34 22 Seafood Producers Cooperative Wholesale Seafoods 50 23 Haskell Corp. Industrial Construction 200 24 American Cordage Group Marine Supplies 300 25 Dealer Info. Systems Computer Products 140 26 Barleans Organic Oils, Co. LLC Food Products 50 27 Import Motors Car Dealership 50 28 Dewey Griffin Car Dealership 52 29 Alpha Technologies Mgmt Consulting/Eng. 275 30 Farmers Equipment Co. Farm & Garden Mach. 60 31 Allsop, Inc. Computer Accessories 150 32 Madrona Medical Group Medical Services 281 33 Ebenal General Construction 60 34 Yamato Engine Spec. Motor Vehicle Parts 110 35 Nielson Bros. Timberland Development 75 36 Sound Beverage Distributors Wholesale Beverages 65 37 ALRT Corporation Timberland Dev. 71 38 Grizzley Industrial Inc. Manufacturing 300 39 Hoksbergen Hay Hay/Straw Wholesaler 50 40 Redden Marine Supply Comm. Fishing Supplies 50 41 Sea K Fish Co., Inc. Seafood Processor 75 42 TranSmart Petroleum LLC Wholesale Petroleum Products 24 43 Edaleen Dairy Products Wholesale Dairy Products 56 44 Sauder Mouldings Inc. Manuf. Wood Moldings 120 45 IMCO General Construction Construction 60 46 Elenbaas Co. Inc. Farm Product Manuf. 50 47 Stargate Telecom. Communications 200 48 Rain Cap Inc. Retail/Install Truck Canopies 8 49 Apache Aerospace Inc. Wholesale Precision Tools 5 50 Walton Beverage Co. Soft Drink Manufacturer 80 Source: "Whatcom County's Top Private 50: Top 50 Firms Make Major Impact in County," - Whatcom County Business Pulse, May 2001

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3.4.6 Previous Forecasts

There are two sources of existing forecasts for Bellingham International Airport. The most recent Master Plan Update for BLI was completed in 1997. The Plan Update included 20-year forecasts for passengers, aircraft operations and cargo beginning with 1995 as the base year and extending through 2015. In addition, FAA Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) are available for BLI. The TAF forecasts are based on FAA’s national modeling and include years 2000 through 2015, with historical activity through 1999.

1997 Master Plan Update The general conclusions of the 1997 Master Plan Update forecasting effort are summarized below:

• Passengers: Passenger levels would continue to grow over time, however the rate of growth would slow compared to previous years. The overall growth rate for combined enplaned and deplaned passengers between 1995 and 2015 was 3.6 percent annually.

• Aircraft Operations: Operations would increase 37.0 percent between 1995 and 2015, yielding an annual growth rate of 1.5 percent

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• Air Cargo: Cargo volumes were anticipated to grow from 4,800 tons in 1995 to 13,200 tons, a 275.0 percent increase over 1995 levels.

Exhibit 3-7 presents a summary of the 1997 Master Plan Update forecast numbers.

Exhibit 3-7: Summary of 1997 Master Plan Update Forecasts

Ave.

1995 Ann’l 2000 2005 2015 (actual) Growth Total Passengers (Enplaned + Deplaned) Scheduled Carrier Passengers 212,525 318,000 358,800 448,500 3.8% Charter/Air Taxi Passengers 48,107 72,000 81,200 101,500 3.8% Total Passengers 260,632 390,000 440,000 550,000 3.8% Aircraft Operations Air Carrier/Regional 14,322 18,500 19,300 20,900 1.9% Cargo 2,760 3,200 3,640 4,500 2.5% Air Taxi 4,328 4,610 4,770 5,170 0.9% Charter 554 670 760 950 2.7% General Aviation 59,655 68,100 72,100 80,500 1.5% Military 1,754 1,800 1,800 1,800 0.1% Total Operations 83,373 96,880 102,370 113,820 1.6% Freight and Mail (Enplaned + Deplaned) Passenger Carriers 417 640 710 870 3.7% Cargo Carriers 4,359 5,510 7,220 12,290 5.3% Total Freight and Mail 4,776 6,150 7,930 13,160 4.2% Source: Bellingham International Airport Master Plan Update, 1997

Terminal Area Forecasts 1999 – 2015 The most recent published FAA Terminal Area Forecast (at the time of this writing) provides historical activity through 1999 and forecast projections for key elements of aviation activity from 2000 to 2015. The TAF forecasts are provided for individual airports listed in the National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems (NPIAS), based on a variety of factors including historical airport market share as well as the FAA’s national aviation forecast model. The TAF forecasts are unconstrained, i.e., the forecasts

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assume the airport and air traffic system can accommodate whatever level of demand may be placed upon them. Exhibit 3-8 summarizes the most recent published TAF forecasts for BLI.

Exhibit 3-8: Terminal Area Forecasts – 1999 – 2015

Avg.

Category Actual Forecast Ann’l 1999 2000 2003 2007 2012 2015 Growth Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 2,711 2,711 2,711 2,711 2,711 2,711 0.0% Commuter 88,953 90,674 95,837 102,722 111,327 116,491 1.6% Total Enplanements 91,664 93,385 98,548 105,433 114,038 119,202 1.6% Operations Itinerant: Air Carrier 137 137 137 137 137 137 0.0% Commuter/Air Taxi 22,008 22,030 22,096 22,185 22,295 22,362 0.1% Total Commercial 22,145 22,167 22,233 22,322 22,432 22,499 0.1% General Aviation 35,433 38,061 39,286 40,919 42,961 44,187 1.3% Military 883 883 883 883 883 883 0.0% Local: General Aviation 21,951 26,343 27,627 29,438 31,868 33,422 2.5% Military 464 464 464 464 464 464 0.0% Total Operations 80,876 87,918 90,493 94,026 98,608 101,455 1.3% Instrument Operations 17,898 18,483 18,725 19,058 19,486 19,752 0.6% Source: FAA TAF Database. Fiscal Years 1999 to 2015, FAA-APO-00-7, December 2000

• Enplaned Passengers: Enplaned passengers are projected to grow at a consistent compound annual rate of 1.6 percent between 1999 and 2015. By 2015, enplaned passengers are expected to reach over 119,000, representing a 30 percent increase over 1999 levels. Air taxi and commuter aircraft are forecast to capture 97 to 98 percent of the enplaned passenger traffic throughout the forecast period.

• Aircraft Operations: TAF forecast project operations increasing 25 percent between 1999 and 2015, increasing from

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approximately 81,000 in 1999, to over 101,000 in 2015. The compound annual growth rate for total aircraft operations over the forecast period is 1.3 percent

FAA Aerospace Forecasts In addition to the Terminal Area Forecast cited above, the FAA prepares additional longer term forecasts of aviation activity to provide information to state and local authorities, the aviation industry, and the general public. The latest versions of these forecast are the FAA Aerospace Forecasts - Fiscal Years 2001- 2012, and FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025 which project that the national and global economies will continue to grow and have positive impacts on the aviation industry.

Between 1993 and 2000, commercial air carrier passenger enplanements in the United States experienced an average annual growth rate of 4.5 percent. The domestic regional airlines continued to expand rapidly during this time frame with an average annual growth rate in enplanements of 7.1 percent compared to 4.1 percent for larger air carriers. Worldwide, the average annual enplanement growth rate from 1993 through 1999 was recorded at 5.3 percent.

Between 2000 and 2012, FAA forecasts project enplanements by U.S. carriers to grow at the following average annual rates:

• Domestic air carrier enplanements – 3.6 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2012 and 3.7 percent from 2013 to 2025. • Domestic regional carrier enplanements – 5.7 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2012 and 4.2 percent from 2013 to 2025. • International enplanements – 5.3 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2012 and 4.7 percent from 2013 to 2025. • Total enplanements worldwide – 3.8 percent average annual growth.

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According to the FAA, the North American air cargo market has grown more than 50 percent since 1990, with most of the growth occurring in the integrator/express sector. In 2000, the total number of air cargo revenue ton-miles (RTMs) flown by U.S. commercial carriers increased by 6.7 percent. Long term, FAA forecasts for air cargo growth rates are as follows:

• Domestic air cargo RTMs – 5.0 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2012, dropping to 4.8 percent annual growth between 2013 and 2025. • International air cargo RTMs – 6.7 percent average annual growth between 2000 and 2012 and 5.0 percent growth annually from 2013 to 2025.

Between 1995 and 2000, total U.S. annual aircraft operations increased from 62.4 million to 68.7 million: The average annual rates of increase were air carrier – 2.1 percent; commuter/air taxi – 1.0 percent and general aviation – 2.1 percent. FAA forecasts for 2000-2012 project the following average annual growth rates:

• Air carriers: 3.1 percent per year from 2000, to 2012 and 3.0 percent from 2013, to 2025. • Commuter/air taxi: 2.4 percent per year from 2000, to 2012 and 3.0 percent from 2013 to 2025. • General aviation: 2.3 percent per year from 2000, to 2012, and 3.0 percent from 2013, to 2025.

The U.S. economy expanded by 5.4 percent (GDP) in 2000. The recent economic downturn prompted the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) to revise short-term economic forecasts downward prior to the publication of the FAA report. However, the OMB believes the impact of the downturn will be limited to the early years of the forecast and unlikely to impact the projected long-term annual growth rate of 3.1 percent in the later years of the forecast period. Additional economic forecasts contained in the FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal Years 2015, 2020

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and 2025, assume average annual GDP growth of 3.0 percent between 2013 and 2025.

The FAA forecasts do not account for recent impacts on aviation due to the September 2001, terrorist attacks on the U.S. However, as discussed later under Section 3.6.4, the industry is expected to recover within approximately two years, barring further terrorist incidences. As a result, the FAA long-term forecast is helpful given the 50-year forecast horizon of this Master Plan Update.

Comparison with the Previous Forecast A comparison of 1997 Master Plan Update passenger and operations forecasts are presented in Exhibit 3-9, along with the average annual compound growth rates implied by the forecast numbers.

Exhibit 3-9: 1997 Master Plan/TAF Forecast Comparison

Ave. Ann’l

2000 2005 2015 Growth Enplaned Passengers 1997 Master Plan Update1 195,000 220,000 275,000 3.8% Terminal Area Forecasts 1999 – 2015 93,385 101,990 119,202 1.6% Total Aircraft Operations 1997 Master Plan Update 96,880 102,370 113,820 1.6% Terminal Area Forecasts 1999 – 2015 87,918 92,245 101,455 1.3% Source: FAA TAF Database. Fiscal Years 1999 to 2015, FAA-APO-00-7, December 2000 Bellingham International Airport Master Plan Update, 1997 1Calculated based on 50 percent of projected total enplaned/deplaned passengers.

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Significant differences exist between the 1997 Master Plan Update and TAF passenger forecasts. The 1997 Master Plan Update relied on activity data through year-end 1995. As noted earlier, between 1985 and 1995, BLI had experienced more than a three-fold increase in passenger traffic and an average annual compound growth rate of nearly 8 percent. The 3.8 percent average annual 300,000 growth rate used in the 1997 Master Plan Update was consistent 250,000 with the FAA rate nationally at the time. This lower rate most 200,000 150,000 likely appeared quite conservative given historical passenger 100,000 growth. 50,000 - 1999 2000 2005 2015 Actual TAF 1997 MP Between 1996 and 1999, BLI experienced a substantial decline in 1997 BLI MasterPlan Update passengers before rebounding in 2000 (see Historical Air Service passenger forecasts significantly discussion below). The effects of this decline are reflected in the exceed passenger projections in the TAF forecasts for BLI, which use the lower 1999 passenger figures FAA TAF 1999-2015. as their starting point. Furthermore, the significantly lower annual growth rate for BLI enplanements used in the TAF, i.e., 1.6 percent versus 3.8 percent used in the 1997 Master Plan Update, results in a more pronounced difference between the forecasts farther into the future. 150,000 125,000 Total operations forecasts track more closely between the 1997 100,000 75,000 Master Plan Update and TAF Forecasts than enplaned passenger 50,000 projections. Annual growth rates used in the two forecast 25,000 - documents compared more favorably with 1.6 percent in the 1997 1999 20 00 2005 2015 Actual TAF 1997 MP Master Plan Update compared to 1.3 percent in the TAF. The Total aircraft operations forecasts more similar growth rate projections, combined with the lower between 1997 BLI Master Plan degree of variability in the overall operations numbers in recent Update and the FAA TAF 1999- years combine to yield forecasts that remain within 10 to 12 2015 projections vary by only 10 to 12 percent over the forecast percent of each other through the end of the forecast period. period.

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3.5 HISTORICAL AIR SERVICE PERSPECTIVE

Commercial airline activity has been available at the BLI for more than 20 years. Exhibit 3-10 shows the enplaned passenger levels recorded from 1979 through 2000, by the airport.

Exhibit 3-10: Historical Enplaned Passenger Levels

Year Passenger Level Year Passenger Level 1979 18,966 1990 109,996 1980 18,634 1991 128,212 1981 6,600 1992 118,871 1982 18,277 1993 151,718 1983 17,484 1994 133,631 1984 22,890 1995 126,037 1985 33,698 1996 123,065 1986 64,464 1997 111,558 1987 81,870 1998 94,084 1988 108,373 1999 91,664 1989 87,376 2000 113,925 Source: FAA TAF, Bellingham International Airport Records

As shown, passenger levels have grown substantially over the period with the highest levels being recorded in 1993 when a peak level of 151,718 passengers was enplaned. In the meantime, several trends have been recorded that need to be explained.

Enplaned passenger levels in Bellingham began to increase in 1984. Prior to this date, all passenger service at Bellingham was offered by regional or commuter airlines operating aircraft with fewer than 19 seats. This began to change in late 1984 and 1985, corresponding with the opening of Expo. in Vancouver, British Columbia. By fall of 1985, Bellingham was served by Pacific Southwest Airlines [(PSA) now US Airways] using McDonnell Douglas DC-9/MD-80 aircraft. The PSA flights operated between Bellingham and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac).

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In 1989, Alaska Airlines began operating three flights per day between Bellingham and Sea-Tac using MD-82 aircraft. In addition to these flights, Bellingham was also being served by regional carriers using smaller (less than 30 passenger) aircraft.

By 1993, USAir decided to eliminate many of its West Coast operations and announced that it would suspend the Bellingham-Seattle service. At the same time, Alaska Airlines decided to eliminate service, allowing Horizon Air to increase their operations. At this point, passenger volumes began to decline.

Other factors have been cited as being important considerations in any analysis of these passenger enplanement trends. Included are the relative strength of the regional, state and national economy, the state of the airline industry at-large and the impact of the Canadian traveler. Anecdotal evidence suggests that a portion of the passenger levels recorded from 1994 through 1998 can be traced to congestion at Vancouver International Airport resulting from the terminal modernization and construction programs occurring at that time.

3.5.1 BLI Air Service Catchment Area

The level of travelers using BLI has greatly fluctuated over the past two decades (see Section 3.4.2). The airport’s geographic location between two major metropolitan areas, Seattle, Washington and Vancouver, British Columbia, serves to be both advantageous and disadvantageous. The population living in the expanding metropolitan areas contribute to the use of BLI along with residents of Whatcom County; however, the international airports in Seattle (SEA) and Vancouver (YVR) detract from use of BLI by drawing travelers with greater choice of destinations and flight frequency. It has been estimated that YVR and SEA draw

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approximately 60 percent, or approximately 300,000 passengers, away from using BLI1. Several reasons for this are:

• Lower fares • More flight options • Convenience – shorter layovers, fewer plane changes • Frequent flyer programs • Jet preference.

These circumstances will continue to impact BLI as long as airlines provide service that is cost-conscious, efficient and convenient, i.e., short lines for check-in, security processing, and bag-claim, at the larger airports. Another influencing factor is the population’s perception of ease with which they can access the airport from their resident locations (ground travel). Traffic congestion along the I-5 corridor north of Seattle could enhance BLI’s position in the region’s air service market. It is primarily within these fundamental conditions that the level of air passengers utilizing BLI will be realized.

Examples of the expanding geographic market areas for BLI include the Surrey B.C. area, which has recently been one of the fastest growing areas in North America. BLI is closer to this population center than is Vancouver International Airport. The expansion of the Seattle metropolitan area northward into the communities of Marysville and Stanwood, which are closer to BLI than SEA, are part of the growing catchment area of BLI. This represents a population base of approximately 500,000 additional residents from which BLI might draw.

In a recent report prepared by the Port of Bellingham (see footnote), BLI’s core catchment area population was estimated at 291,000 (1998), extending throughout Whatcom County. The report estimated the potential one-way passenger market of BLI in

1 Port of Bellingham, Bellingham International Airport, air service study prepared in 1998

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the range of approximately 400,000 to 470,000 passengers, and ranked the BLI catchment just below that of Boise (494,000) and Spokane (627,000), but above that of Medford (289,000), Yakima (233,000), Pasco (225,000), and Missoula (159,000).

In the remaining sections of this chapter, analyses will be conducted to test the relationships cited, where sufficient historical data is available. In other cases, no testing is possible. It is therefore important to keep some of these aforementioned factors in mind as decisions are being made regarding selection of preferred forecasts from the range of projections.

The air service and estimated catchment area for BLI is depicted in Exhibit 3-11.

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Exhibit 3-11: Catchment Area

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3.6 AIRLINE ACTIVITY FORECASTS

3.6.1 Introduction

To determine the appropriate size and characteristics of passenger service facilities at BLI, it is necessary to gain an idea of the future activity levels that may occur. Two basic indicators are commonly forecast in this category: annual passengers and annual airline operations. From these basic activity segments forecasts of peak activity can be deduced.

When preparing forecasts of passenger activity for an airport, it is common practice to concentrate on those passengers boarding aircraft and departing from the facility. These are commonly referred to as enplaned passengers or enplanements. Once the number of enplanements is forecast, they are used to determine the future requirements for terminal facilities, access and parking, and other passenger-oriented facilities. Typically, numbers of arriving or deplaned passengers are assumed to equal enplaned passengers. Therefore, the total number of passengers moving through the airport is calculated as two times the enplaned passengers.

3.6.2 Current Service Levels

Historical data relative to passenger activity levels at BLI have already been presented. Existing scheduled passenger service as of late-2001 is discussed below.

Flights from BLI link passengers to the national airport system primarily via Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, with connecting service throughout the U.S. and abroad. According to flight schedules published in the Official Airline Guide (October 2001), limited direct scheduled service is also available to Eastsound and Friday Harbor, Washington.

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In recent years, the two key scheduled air carriers serving BLI and carrying the majority of passengers were Horizon Air and United Express. In 2000, Horizon Air and United Express/Skywest carried 60 percent and 20 percent, respectively, of all enplaned passengers at BLI. Through October 2001, the combined flight schedule of the two carriers included nine daily weekday direct flights to Sea-Tac International Airport. By November 2001, United Express/Skywest discontinued all service at Bellingham while Horizon Air continued to operate five daily weekday arrivals and departures.

West Isle Air provides additional scheduled service at the airport to Eastsound and Friday Harbor in the San Juan Islands. West Isle Air operates four flights daily weekdays to/from the San Juan Islands.

Exhibit 3-12 shows the Consolidated Flight Schedule of all scheduled aircraft arrivals and departures at the airport as of November 2001. Due to the current aviation environment, there may be considerable variation in scheduled flight operations over time and it should be anticipated that this schedule would change during the course of the Master Plan Update.

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Exhibit 3-12: Scheduled Passenger Service

Carrier Time City From City To Flight No. Equip Type Freq. Arr. Seats Dep. Seats Code 5:20 a.m. SEA QX 2197 DH8 X7 37 7:00 a.m. ESD/FRD W6 295 CNA X7 5 7:59 a.m. SEA QX 2232 DH8 X7 37 8:20 a.m. SEA QX 2271 DH8 D 37 9:00 a.m. FRD/ESD W6 300 CNA D 5 9:00 a.m. ESD/FRD W6 305 CNA X67 5 10:40 a.m. SEA QX 2068 DH8 D 37 11:15 a.m. FRD/ESD W6 310 CNA D 5 11:00 a.m. SEA QX 2097 DH8 D 37 12:15 p.m. ESD/FRD W6 305 CNA 67 5 1:15 p.m. SEA QX 2146 DH8 D 37 1:35 p.m. SEA QX 2099 DH8 D 37 2:15 p.m. FRD/ESD W6 330 CNA D 5 3:15 p.m. SEA QX 2267 DH8 D 37 3:35 p.m. SEA QX 2137 DH8 D 37 4:00 p.m. ESD/FRD W6 335 CNA D 5 5:00 p.m. FRD/ESD W6 340 CNA D 5 5:10 p.m. SEA QX 2110 DH8 D 37 5:30 p.m. SEA QX 2217 DH8 D 37 7:30 p.m. SEA QX 2158 DH8 D 37 7:55 p.m. SEA QX 2015 DH8 D 37 10:40 p.m. SEA QX 2162 DH8 X6 37 Sources: Alaska Airlines flight schedule, November 2001 West Isle Air flight Schedule, November 2001 Legend: City Codes Air Carriers Equipment Type SEA Seattle-Tacoma QX Horizon Air DH8 Dash 8 FRD Friday Harbor W6 West Isle Air CNA Cessna 206 ESD Eastsound

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3.6.3 Forecast Methodologies

Preparing the aviation demand forecasts for use in the Airport Master Plan Update is a two-phase process. The first is the analytical phase, which involves applying statistical techniques to historical data to establish a basis for modeling future growth. The second or subjective phase, adds experience, knowledge, and other non-mathematical valuation to the process. The combination of techniques is essential to the development of a final preferred forecast.

For the analytical phase, past trends in the aviation demand elements are extended into the future using a variety of techniques and assumptions. The products of these analyses are trend lines, which produce projections for specific time periods. A number of projections are developed since the most reliable approach to estimating demand is often obtained using more than one technique. Methodologies that are commonly employed include correlation and regression analyses, time series extrapolation (trend data), and market share analyses.

• In a Regression Analysis, projections of an aviation demand element (the dependent variable) are prepared based on one or more outside indicators, such as population or other socioeconomic factors (the independent variables). Historical values for both the dependent and the independent variables are tested using correlation analyses to determine whether a relationship exists. If it is determined that there is a relationship, it can be used to define future aviation activity levels based on a continuation of the relationship into the future using forecasts of the independent variables prepared by others.

• A Time-Series Analysis can be a means of establishing any trends that are evident in the demand category without regard to the reasons for the trend. This type of analysis is perhaps the simplest, most widely used forecasting technique. It fits

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growth curves to historical data and extends them into the future.

• Market-Share Analysis techniques involve a review of the historical activity levels at the airport as a percentage share of a larger market. This share factor is compared to forecasts for the larger market to determine the likely future activity level.

These three analytical techniques share a common shortcoming. They assume that relationships that existed in the past will continue unchanged into the future. Consequently, they do not allow for the effects of more aggressive marketing, increased service levels, or other changes that are independent of past indicators. Similarly, they do not permit the analysis of the impact of point-in-time activity increases followed by resumption of previous growth rates. To counter this weakness, the second phase of forecasting involves a judgmental analysis. During this phase, decisions are made regarding the growth projections resulting from the analyses of each demand element. These decisions require that a number of intangible factors, such as policy and objective changes, be considered. The forecast team adds these elements to the process using experience at other airports, industry trends, knowledge of the aviation community, and other information gathering techniques that may be available. Despite all of these efforts, the level of confidence in forecasts that extend beyond five years should be minimal, and the numbers generated during the forecast effort should be used as guides rather than absolutes.

Forecast Model Verification Before a forecast model can be relied upon as a basis for projecting future activity, it must pass certain statistical tests verifying that a legitimate relationship exists between the dependent and independent variables used in each particular model.

The correlation coefficient (Pearson’s ‘r’) and coefficient of determination (r2) measure the strength of the association between

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changes in the dependent variable (such as enplaned passengers) and the independent variable (such as population). A r2 of greater than 0.95 indicates that the relationship is strong and can be used as a good predictor of future activity. A r2 value of 0.00 indicates that no correlation whatsoever exists between the variables. A r2 value below 0.90 may be useful in the absence of any other information but is not typically relied upon as a predictive tool.

As noted above, the forecast models evaluated for the Master Plan Update included regression analyses, time-series (trend analyses), and market share analyses. Of the three methodologies, the regression models were suited to verification by testing the coefficients of correlation and determination between their respective dependent (in these case enplanements) and independent variables.

Enplanement regression models tested included local and state population, employment and per capita income. Exhibit 3-13 presents the results of correlation tests between historical reported enplanements at BLI and the independent variable for each particular model.

Exhibit 3-13: Forecast Model Correlation Tests

“r” “r2” Model Type Dependent Variable Independent Variable Value Value Whatcom County/ Bellingham Regression BLI Enplanements 0.819 0.671 Population Regression BLI Enplanements Whatcom County Employment -0.05 0.003 Regression BLI Enplanements Whatcom County Per Capita Income -0.215 0.046 Regression BLI Enplanements Washington State Population 0.846 0.715 Regression BLI Enplanements Washington State Employment -0.295 0.087 Regression BLI Enplanements Washington State Per Capita Income -0.522 0.273 Sources: Data FAA Terminal Area Forecast Database Washington State Office of Financial Management/Forecasting Bellingham/Whatcom County Economic Development Council

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None of the regression models prepared and shown in Exhibit 3-13 (shown previously) demonstrated sufficient correlation to provide a basis for forecasting future enplanement levels at BLI. While virtually all of the independent variables in the different models showed consistent growth over time, passenger enplanements at BLI were highly variable. Consequently, none of the models demonstrated a clear relationship to enplaned passengers at BLI.

3.6.4 Passenger Forecast

The trend (time series) and market share forecasting models were selected as the most suitable modeling tools. Three market share models and one trend projection were used in developing enplaned passenger forecasts for BLI. Where appropriate, TAF enplanement data, dating as far back as 1976, was used to gain the greatest possible historical perspective. The forecasts and an explanation of the trend and market share models used to create them are presented in the following discussion.

Market Share: Enplanement market share models used included the historical average BLI share of national enplanements, FAA Northwest Mountain Region enplanements and, due to the close association between Bellingham and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Sea-Tac enplanements.

The average Sea-Tac and Northwest Mountain Region market share models produced nearly identical forecasts with 337,000 enplanements each by 2050. The national market share model was also reasonably close to the other two regional market share projections with 277,000 enplanements for the same forecast period. (See the exhibit below for per annum growth rates.)

Trend Analysis: The trend analysis was based on the enplanement growth trend at BLI between 1976 and 2000. The historical trend line was established based on TAF reported enplanements and then adjusted to correspond with reported year 2000 enplanements.

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This forecasting approach produced enplanement levels significantly higher than the market share models due to the high historical growth rates on enplaned passengers at BLI compared to the much lower growth rates attributed to FAA projections of future enplanement growth – the basis of the market share models. The trend analysis projected 418,000 enplanements by 2050. (See the exhibit below for per annum growth rates.)

Exhibit 3-14 presents the results of the market share and trend forecasts.

Exhibit 3-14: Enplanement Market Share and Trend Forecasts

Average SEA Average ANM Average U.S. BLI Historical Year Market Share Market Share Market Share Trend 2000 113,925 113,925 113,925 113,925 2003 132,166 120,938 114,000 132,183 2004 137,163 125,545 118,474 138,270 2005 142,160 130,151 122,897 144,356 2006 147,157 134,757 127,320 150,442 2007 152,153 139,364 131,743 156,528 2012 177,137 162,395 153,850 186,959 2022 215,432 208,459 181,604 247,820 2050 337,409 337,436 276,807 418,232 Per Annum Growth: 2000 through 20151 3.419% 2.950% 2.382% 4.002% 2000 through 2022 2.938% 2.784% 2.142% 3.596% 2000 through 2050 2.195% 2.195% 1.791% 2.635% 1Derived through interpolation between years 2012 and 2022

Interpretation of Forecasts One anomaly in the forecasts is reconciliation of existing year 2000 enplanements level of 113,925 with the forecast results for 2003. Because actual 2000 enplanements do not fall exactly on the forecast lines established by the models, it creates the appearance of abnormal movement in enplanements between 2000 and the 2003 forecast level. However, from 2003, through the end of the

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forecast period, the enplanement levels show growth rates consistent with expectations under the respective models.

The enplaned passenger growth rates exhibited in the Trend Analysis are unusually high within the industry and unlikely to be sustainable through the end of the forecast period. Furthermore, inability to identify the reasons for the rapid growth and wide swings in enplanements to specific analytical factors makes the high growth rate demonstrated via trend line suspect as a basis for long-term forecasting purposes. As a result, the Trend Analysis was eliminated from further consideration.

In Exhibit 3-15, the three market share forecasts are compared against the existing FAA Terminal Area Forecast, as well as additional forecasts using the FAA air carrier and regional carrier growth rates contained in the FAA publication “FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts, Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025” (June 2001). In addition to the growth shown in the table above, the FAA long-range Air Carrier Growth Rate model, growth rates are 3.6 percent annually between 2000 and 2012, and 3.7 percent from 2013 through 2025. For the Regional Carrier Enplanement Model, FAA growth rates are 5.7 percent annually between 2000 and 2012, and 4.2 percent from 2013 through 2025. These long-range rates were extended through 2050 to reach the 2050 planning horizon. The existing TAF forecast provides projections through 2015; this was extended through 2050 using the established growth rate of the forecasted period.

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Exhibit 3-15: Comparison - FAA Forecast Growth Rates vs. Market Share Models (Enplanements)

FAA Long- FAA Long- Average Average Average FAA range Forecast range Forecast SEA ANM U.S. Year TAF Air Carrier Reg’l Carrier Market Market Market Growth Rate Growth Rate Share Share Share 2000 93,3851 113,9252 113,9252 113,9252 113,9252 113,9252 2003 98,548 126,677 134,538 132,166 120,938 114,000 2004 100,269 131,238 142,206 137,163 125,545 118,474 2005 101,990 135,962 150,312 142,160 130,151 122,897 2006 103,711 140,857 158,880 147,157 134,757 127,320 2007 105,433 145,928 167,936 152,153 139,364 131,743 2012 114,038 174,155 221,574 177,137 162,395 153,850 2022 131,249 250,452 334,346 215,432 208,459 181,604 2050 179,441 692,674 1,058,016 337,409 337,436 276,807 Per Annum Growth: 2000-20153 2.295% 5.392% 7.441% 3.419% 2.950% 2.382% 2000-2022 1.559% 3.645% 5.016% 2.938% 2.784% 2.142% 2000-2050 1.315% 3.676% 4.558% 2.195% 2.195% 1.791% 1Year 2000 FAA TAF forecast 2Actual enplanements as reported by BLI 3Derived through interpolation between years 2012 and 2022 N/A – Not Available

The enplanement growth rate attributed to BLI in the FAA TAF is less than half the 3.2 percent average annual growth rate applied nationally and within the Northwest Mountain Region (ANM). While the high historical trend in enplanements at BLI may be questionable as a basis for long-range forecasting, the absence of any explanation as to the low growth rate applied to BLI in the TAF also raises questions. Conversely, the FAA long-range air carrier growth rates are approximately twice the levels applied to BLI while regional carrier growth rates approach nearly three times the FAA’s estimated growth rate.

The economic, geographic and social environments in the Bellingham/Whatcom County area position the community and the airport for continued growth into the future. The economy is well diversified and is likely to benefit as an attractive alternative for people and employers as congestion increases throughout the Puget

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Sound region. The community’s location in close proximity to both Seattle and Vancouver, B.C., makes it an attractive option for those wishing to take advantage of the benefits of the large cities while avoiding many of the associated downsides.

Forecasts by the Washington Office of Financial Management/ Forecasting all show very strong correlation between Bellingham and Whatcom County population, employment and per capita income and corresponding indicators at the state level. Consequently, while a direct correlation between these socio-economic factors and past enplanements at BLI may not be discernible, continued long-term growth of the local and state economies appears unquestionable. It is reasonable to assume that socio-economic factors creating a particular rate of passenger growth in the region would be expected to have a similar effect at BLI.

One factor that will not change for BLI is its geographic location relative to the Seattle and Vancouver, B.C. metropolitan areas and their respective international airports. The proximity of the two international airports is likely to continue to cause "leakage" of potential passengers who elect to drive or take surface transport to these airports to connect to the national and international air transportation system. While increasing roadway congestion and potential processing delays at the large airports may dissuade some potential passengers from using direct surface transport, no significant change in travel patterns is expected in the foreseeable future.

It is anticipated that BLI will continue to serve primarily a "feeder" role to Seattle-Tacoma International. Historically, direct point-to-point service from Bellingham to other regional and national destinations has not survived. Even so, it is possible that the BLI service area could support additional markets to other city-pair non-stop destinations in the future.

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The existing TAF assigns a 3.2 percent average annual rate of growth for passenger enplanements within the Northwest Mountain Region. While passenger growth at BLI may be somewhat constrained by the airport's geographic location and role, the 1.56 percent average annual rate of growth contained in the FAA Terminal Area Forecasts is believed to be too conservative. The average BLI market share of the Northwest Mountain Region total enplanements extrapolated over the 50-year planning period yields a 2.15 percent compound average annual growth rate for BLI enplanements. These relationships bear on the selection of the preferred enplanements forecast for BLI as discussed below in the recommended forecast section.

Additional Forecasting Considerations The September 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, the severe impact on airlines and air travel and associated slide of the U.S. economy into recession have caused significant uncertainty for all those associated with the air transport industry. Because of the slowing economy, air carriers were losing significant sums even prior to the September attacks that only exacerbated the carriers difficult position. At the time of this writing, BLI has already been impacted by the departure of United Express/Skywest passenger service.

While the future is unknown and the long-term impacts are yet to be determined, industry experts expect a general recovery of air travel at the national level within 18 to 24 months, or by late-2003. It is likely that local activity may take longer to recover to levels experienced in 2000, as air carriers stabilize operations at the major hub airports and improve their financial positions before seeking to expand their service in smaller communities and as the national and local economies recover from the 2001 economic recession. It is also likely that service will be added in circumstances where some carriers entirely vacate markets resulting in remaining carriers adding service (flights) sooner than

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they might otherwise have under these uncertain and economically sluggish times. It is expected that positive growth in calendar year-over-year activity would resume at BLI by the end of 2002.

Recommended Enplanement Forecast The following approach is recommended to arrive at an enplanement forecast for BLI. As shown in the historical activity section of this chapter, levels of enplanements at BLI have varied from year to year, based on local and regional air service availability, economic, and geographic conditions and circumstances. While there is nothing in the offing to indicate there will be explosive growth in air service at BLI, there is no indication that service will be discontinued. Because of the varied record of enplanement activity it is difficult to establish a close correlation with other socioeconomic factors. However, a marginally acceptable relationship has existed between passenger levels experienced at BLI and those of the Northwest Mountain Region (ANM) as a whole. Final derivation of the enplanement forecast for BLI is as follows:

1. The average of the BLI passenger market share of the Northwest Mountain Region for the period 1976 through 1999 is determined.

2. The BLI average market share of the Northwest Mountain Region (0.18099 percent) is applied to the FAA’s passenger forecast for the Region through 2050 (URS trend ANM forecast for years 2016 through 2050).

3. The per annum growth rate of 2.15 percent demonstrated via this process is applied to the last year for which there is actual enplanement information (2001 estimated at 97,000).

It is important to note that the annual growth rate of 2.15 percent (established via the methodology described above) is applied to the estimated 2001 year-end enplanement level at BLI (approximately

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97,000), to arrive at the enplanement forecast for use in this Master Plan Update. Exhibit 3-16 presents the historical and forecast information regarding the average market share methodology discussed above.

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Exhibit 3-16: Historical and BLI Forecast ANM Market Enplanements

BLI Average BLI BLI Enplane- ANM Enplane- BLI Share Resulting share Year Share x ANM2 Enplanements ments ments1 of ANM (%) of ANM4 Enplanements Forecast3 Per annum = Per annum = Average = 9.47% 5.37% 0.18099% 1976 10,094 16,707,911 0.0604145 1977 14,085 18,674,283 0.0754246 1978 16,000 22,010,773 0.0726917 1979 18,966 23,872,729 0.0794463 1980 18,634 22,942,416 0.0812207 1981 6,600 22,205,473 0.0297224 1982 18,277 24,474,671 0.0746772 1983 17,484 26,638,634 0.0656340 1984 22,890 29,171,577 0.0784668 1985 33,698 32,358,304 0.1041402 1986 64,464 36,506,450 0.1765825 1987 81,870 37,309,611 0.2194341 1988 108,373 36,598,586 0.2961125 1989 87,376 34,628,545 0.2523236 1990 109,996 34,369,452 0.3200400 1991 128,212 36,030,061 0.3558473 1992 118,871 38,973,454 0.3050050 1993 151,718 42,020,428 0.3610577 1994 133,631 45,912,654 0.2910548 1995 126,037 47,746,048 0.2639737 1996 123,065 52,151,211 0.2359773 1997 111,558 53,943,236 0.2068063 1998 94,084 54,053,132 0.1740584 1999 91,664 56,005,803 0.1636688 2000 113,925 2001 97,0005 2003 66,820,110 0.18099% 120,938 101,216 0.151475 2004 69,365,172 0.18099% 125,545 130,392 0.149055 2005 71,910,239 0.18099% 130,151 105,615 0.146871 2006 74,455,298 0.18099% 134,757 107,886 0.144900 2007 77,000,382 0.18099% 139,364 110,205 0.143123 2012 89,725,699 0.18099% 162,395 122,573 0.136609 2015 97,360,934 0.18099% 176,214 130,649 0.134190 2022 115,176,376 1 0.18099% 208,459 151,627 0.131648 2050 183,438,248 1 0.18099% 337,436 275,076 0.149956 1Simple trend 2003 through 2050, by URS 2Last complete year of available actual enplanement activity (estimated by POB) 3Demonstrated per annum growth rate 2000 through 2050 is 2.15% 4Per annum growth rate of 2.15 % is applied to 2001 estimated actual enplanements of 97,000 5Last complete year of available actual enplanement activity (estimated by POB)

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Additionally, the recommended enplanement forecast is presented in Exhibit 3-17, along with the FAA TAF, for comparison purposes.

Exhibit 3-17: Preferred Enplanement Forecast (including TAF and preferred forecast comparison)

Adjusted ANM TAF and Forecast Year FAA TAF Market Share1 % Variance 2000 93,3852 113,9253 22.0% 2001 97,0004 2003 98,548 101,216 2.71% 2004 100,269 103,392 3.11% 2005 101,990 105,615 3.55% 2006 103,711 107,886 4.03% 2007 105,433 110,205 4.53% 2012 114,038 122,573 7.48% 2015 119,202 130,649 9.60% 2022 N/A 151,627 -- 2050 N/A 275,076 -- 1Preferred Forecast 2Year 2000 FAA TAF forecast 3Actual enplanements as reported by BLI 4Estimated enplanements reported by BLI

Preferred Enplanement Forecast v. TAF

450,000 400,000 rs

e 350,000 g 300,000 250,000 assen

P 200,000

ed 150,000 an l

p 100,000 n

E 50,000 - 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Actual Enplanements Preferred Forecast TAF Forecast TAF Trend

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The preferred forecast is believed to address a number of issues relative to future passenger enplanements at BLI, which are as follows:

• The forecast reflects regional socio-economic factors and future growth rates expected in the Pacific Northwest. The forecast recognizes a higher rate of growth than present in the FAA TAF, which appears low relative to local economic development potential and regional growth.

• The compound average annual growth rate used is based on the actual historical relationship between BLI and ANM enplanements.

• The forecast recognizes and accommodates recent political events and the current economic downturn, allowing a reasonable time period for activity to recover.

The total enplaned passenger forecast will be further categorized by air carrier type in the subsequent discussions.

Enplaned Passenger Forecast Allocations The enplaned passenger projection presented above encompasses all passengers carried by scheduled and charter carriers at the airport. The following discussion allocates the enplaned passengers in the forecast to carrier type.

As noted in Section 3.4.3, Aircraft Activity, the FAA system for distinguishing air carrier and air taxi/commuter activity depends on aircraft seating capacity. Aircraft of more than 60 seats are classified as air carrier while aircraft with 60 or fewer seats are considered air taxi/commuter operations.

The consequence of such a classification system is that a long established regional carrier such as Horizon Air could have operations classified differently based on the size of aircraft in use. As Horizon Air migrates to the Dash 8/400 series aircraft with over

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60 seats, some of its operations will be categorized as air carrier operations while operations by earlier, smaller Dash 8 models will be considered air taxi/commuter.

To avoid confusion inherent in the above classification system, this Master Plan will categorize activity based on the commonly accepted understanding within the industry between major air carrier and regional carrier operators and consistent with BLI’s records of aircraft and enplanement activity.

Exhibit 3-18, on the following page, presents a five-year history of passenger service providers and charter carriers at BLI between 1996 and 2000, along with their percent contribution of enplaned passengers each year. Clearly apparent in the exhibit is the lack of major carrier activity at the airport during the past five years. Based on the airport’s classification system, regional carriers accommodated an average of 95.0 percent of enplaned passengers annually between 1996 and 2000. The charter/air taxi carriers served, on average, 5.0 percent of enplaned passengers during the same period.

The two largest regional carriers, Horizon Air and United Express averaged 80 percent of the annual enplaned passengers. Although United Express has discontinued operations at BLI, it is assumed that the nearly 25 percent of passengers served by the regional carrier will be absorbed by Horizon Air in the short-term, with the possibility of another regional carrier re-entering the Bellingham/Whatcom County market as the airline industry recovery unfolds into 2003-2004.

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Exhibit 3-18: Historical Passenger Service Providers at Bellingham International Airport (by percent of total enplaned passengers)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Average Major Carrier ------Subtotal ------Regional Carrier Aeronautical Services, Inc. 0.15% 0.19% 0.02% -- -- 0.07% Aviation Northwest, Inc. 0.21% 0.20% ------0.08% Great AM Airways 20.33% 4.66% ------5.00% Harbor Airlines -- -- 0.28% 0.18% -- 0.09% Horizon Air 55.45% 52.94% 66.11% 66.02% 58.60% 59.83% Island Air ------0.04% 0.07% 0.02% Juan Air Ltd. -- 0.01% ------Reno Air -- 14.88% ------2.98% Rite Bros Aviation, Inc. ------0.02% 0.01% Sky Trek International -- -- 0.67% -- -- 0.13% Sun West Int'l/Pace/Laughlin ------0.38% 0.08% Sun West Int'l/Sierra Pacific Airlines ------1.28% 0.66% 0.39% United Express 20.79% 23.22% 8.88% -- -- 10.58% United Express/Skywest -- -- 18.36% 27.37% 20.45% 13.24% West Isle Air 1.60% 1.91% 2.87% 3.36% 4.16% 2.78% Subtotal 98.54% 98.03% 97.19% 98.25% 84.34% 95.27% Charter/Air Taxi Casino Express 1.46% 1.97% 2.81% 1.75% 15.66% 4.73% Totals – All Categories 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Source: Bellingham International Airport Records

Future enplaned passenger allocations at BLI are based on the preferred forecast passenger levels distributed according to the five-year historical average of passenger activity presented in Exhibit 3-19, on the following page. There are no passengers assigned to major carrier operators. Regional carrier enplaned passengers are allocated at 95 percent, with charter/air taxi operations capturing 5 percent of enplaned passengers

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Exhibit 3-19: Enplaned Passenger Allocations by Carrier Type

Regional Total Enplaned Year Major Carrier Charter/Air Taxi Carrier Passengers 20001 - 96,089 17,836 113,925 2003 - 96,155 5,061 101,216 2004 - 98,222 5,170 103,392 2005 - 100,334 5,281 105,615 2006 - 102,491 5,394 107,886 2007 - 104,695 5,510 110,205 2012 - 116,444 6,129 122,573 2022 - 144,046 7,581 151,627 2050 - 261,322 13,754 275,076 1Last complete year of available actual enplanement activity

3.6.5 Total Passenger Forecast

In addition to the enplaning passengers discussed in the preceding section, there will be a complementary number of deplaning passengers at BLI. Typically deplaning passenger levels are approximately equal to enplaning passengers. Therefore, this forecast assumes that deplaning passenger levels will remain equal to those for enplanements, and that the total passengers using Bellingham will be twice the enplaned passenger projections. Exhibit 3-20 shows this forecast level for all passengers.

Exhibit 3-20: Forecast of Total Passenger Levels

Year Enplaned Passengers Deplaned Passengers Total Passengers 20001 113,925 113,925 227,850 2003 101,216 101,216 202,432 2004 103,392 103,392 206,784 2005 105,615 105,615 211,230 2006 107,886 107,886 215,771 2007 110,205 110,205 220,410 2012 122,573 122,573 245,145 2022 151,627 151,627 303,255 2050 275,076 275,076 550,151 1Last complete year of available actual enplanement activity

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3.6.6 International Passengers

Historical enplanement/deplanement records for BLI show only 11 international passengers deplaned in 1996. Significant international passenger traffic is not foreseen during the forecast period. However, for the future, it is possible to envision some international passengers attributable to extension of existing air service to the San Juan Islands eventually extending to the Canadian Gulf Islands and other Inside Passage destinations as the regional population grows and the area continues to be an attractive travel destination. As a result, 0.5 percent of overall enplaned passengers are categorized as international passengers in the passenger forecasts by 2050.

Exhibit 3-21 presents the international passenger forecast.

Exhibit 3-21: International Passenger Forecast

Enplaned Int’l Deplaned Int’l Total Int’l Year Passenger Passengers Passengers 2000 - - - 2003 - - - 2004 103 103 207 2005 264 264 528 2006 432 432 863 2007 551 551 1,102 2012 613 613 1,226 2022 758 758 1,516 2050 1,375 1,375 2,751

3.6.7 Aircraft Operations

Forecasting the number of air carrier operations expected to occur at the airport helps to define a number of factors that are important to airport planning. An aircraft operation is defined as a take-off or a landing; thus each flight consists of two operations. Forecasting the operations relies on a process that determines the

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historical number of enplaned passengers per carrier departure, projects changes in this ratio, and applies these changes to the forecast of enplaned passengers.

A direct relationship exists between the number of air carrier operations and the level of passenger enplanements. The average number of passengers on a departing airplane helps determine the frequency of flights and/or the size of the aircraft being used on that route. This relationship is measured using a boarding load factor, which is typically expressed as a percentage of seats filled per departing aircraft. If a carrier has a high boarding load factor, say 70 to 80 percent, it may choose to increase the number of flights or use an aircraft with greater seating capacity. To determine the future of airline service at Bellingham, it is important to understand the aircraft fleet serving the Airport. The following discussion details the known current and future plans for the key scheduled carriers recently serving BLI.

Horizon Air uses DeHavilland Dash 8-series aircraft for their service in Bellingham. Horizon operates as a sister airline to Alaska Airlines, offering code-share service to smaller market cities and feeding passengers into Alaska’s route system. Horizon’s current plans call for a gradual increase in the size of the aircraft in their fleet. It is expected that the larger 70-passenger Dash 8/400 series aircraft will be assigned to Horizon’s more heavily traveled routes such as Seattle to/from Spokane and Portland. It is expected that Horizon will serve BLI primarily with its 37-passenger Dash – 8 and Dash – 8/200 series aircraft until passenger volumes warrant transition to larger aircraft.

United Express/Skywest. United Express recently discontinued service to BLI. However, until October 2001 service was provided using 30-passenger Embraer 120 Brasilia aircraft. It is assumed that as the U.S. economy and air travel recovers over time, United Express or a similar regional carrier will offer competing service to Horizon Air.

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Other Carriers serving BLI range from smaller scheduled service operators such as West Isle Air, providing service to the San Juan Islands and region with aircraft carrying less than 10 passengers, to the gambling charter flights currently operating B-737-200 aircraft. While the activity levels of these carriers are expected to change over time, the gauge or seating capacity of aircraft they use are well suited to their operations and not expected to change.

Forecasting future activity depends on a sound historical perspective of past air service at BLI. Exhibit 3-14, presented earlier in this chapter, showed a 5-year history of passenger service providers at the airport, their annual enplaned passengers as a percent of total enplaned passengers, as well as their overall 5-year average. Exhibit 3-22, presents a summary of their operations by aircraft type as reported by BLI, including the average seats per departure.

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Exhibit 3-22: Existing Passenger Aircraft Fleet Mix

Average Percent of Average Seats/ Aircraft Type Seats 1999 2000 Average Total Departure Aircraft with 10 seats or less C172 3 181 122 242 2.79% 0.08 C-172/C-206 4 1181 2205 2284 26.31% 1.05 PA-31 5 11 220 121 1.39% 0.07 PA31-350 5 79 0 79 0.91% 0.05 C-206 6 97 31 113 1.30% 0.08 Subtotal 1,549 2,578 2,838 32.69% 1.33 Aircraft with 11 to 30 Seats C208 B 12 543 3 545 6.27% 0.75 C-208D 12 106 0 106 1.22% 0.15 B-99 19 18 39 38 0.43% 0.08 EMB120 30 0 1095 548 6.31% 1.89 EMB120-ER 30 995 572 1281 14.76% 4.43 EMB120-RT 30 533 614 840 9.68% 2.90 Subtotal 2,195 2,323 3,357 38.67% 10.20 Aircraft with 31 to 60 seats DH8 37 0 981 491 5.65% 2.09 DH8/200 37 970 2051 1996 22.99% 8.51 Subtotal 970 3,032 2,486 28.64% 10.60 Aircraft with more than 60 seats1 DH8/400 68 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00 Subtotal 0 0 0 0.00% 0.00 Grand Total 4,714 7,933 8,681 100.00% 22.131 Source: BLI Activity Reports 1Excludes destination charter activity. 2Destination Charter Carriers average 87 seats per departure.

Given the existing fleet mix and what is known about the plans of the airlines, as well as the current industry trends in service, some assumptions can be made regarding future service at BLI. Some of the primary assumptions are:

• As the airline fleet evolves, a clear trend is to increase the number of seats available per aircraft. This is consistent with trends identified in the FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts

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– Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025. Between 2000 and 2025, the FAA projects average regional carrier seating capacity to grow from 37.5 seats to approximately 55.1.

• For reasons driven primarily by BLI’s geographic location, it is believed the airport will continue to feed the majority of its passengers through Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. As passenger levels grow throughout the forecast period and newer more cost efficient aircraft such as the Regional Jet become more common in the aircraft fleet, some direct service to other hubs in the west such as Denver or Salt Lake City may be a possibility. Future congestion at Sea-Tac may also make direct service to Portland, Spokane or other regional hubs a more attractive option as well.

• Carriers serving BLI will balance enplaned passenger loads by varying size of aircraft used and frequency of service. As scheduled departures reach higher load factors, carriers are likely to move to the next larger aircraft available in their fleet. However frequency of service will be important to provide passengers with flexibility in scheduling their travel. Regional carriers feeding passengers to national airlines at Sea-Tac will likely schedule BLI flights around banks of departures and arrivals at Sea-Tac to enable passengers to make convenient connections.

• If any of the preceding actions occur, service to Bellingham from airline regional hubs could increase to take advantage of the increasing passenger potential. This could result in more flights to more cities directly, as well as an increase in traffic to the airline hubs.

Forecasts of future air carrier activity were prepared based on the passenger enplanement forecast presented earlier and projections of future aircraft seating capacity and load factors anticipated in the future. Growth rates for regional carrier aircraft seating

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capacity and expected load factors were drawn from the FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025. FAA growth rates for each forecast element were applied to existing average aircraft seating and load factors to provide adjusted rates applicable to BLI.

The FAA long-range forecasts divide future growth periods generally into 2000 to 2012 and 2013 to 2025. Given the 2050 forecasting horizon for this Master Plan Update, the growth rates beyond 2025 were adjusted slightly downward from the levels used in the 2013 to 2025 period. As already mentioned, FAA projects aircraft seating capacity to grow from 37.5 to 46.0 seats in 2012 and 55.1 seats in 2025. The resulting growth rates are 1.87 percent annually between 2000 and 2012, and growth rate of 1.40 percent annually from 2013 to 2025. Beyond 2025, seating capacity is assumed to grow at 1.0 percent annually.

The above growth rates were applied to existing average seats per departure at BLI to forecast future aircraft seating capacity in use at the airport. Average seats per departure increased overall from 28.57 in 2000 to 56.4 seats per departure in 2050. It should be noted that destination (gambling) charters were calculated separately to avoid co-mingling scheduled passenger service and special charter data. The specialized charter operations were calculated at 120 seats per departure reflecting current use of Boeing 737/200 aircraft.

Regional carrier load factors are projected by FAA to increase from 59.0 percent in 2000, to 62.8 percent in 2012, and 66.2 percent by 2025. The resulting FAA load factor growth rates are 0.52 percent annually between 2000 and 2012, and 0.41 percent annually between 2013 and 2025. Load factors were assumed to continue to grow at 0.30 percent annually from 2025 to 2050.

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The forecast of air carrier operations has been determined from the derived ratio of passenger enplanements per operation using the following process:

• Determination of the ratio of enplaned passengers to airline departures

• Projection of changes in the enplaned passenger to departure ratio as per FAA growth projections

• Application of the projected ratios to the enplaned passenger forecast to determine the number of departures

• Doubling the number of departures to determine the total operations

The forecast of annual air carrier operations were developed using these average seats per departure numbers, the historical and projected passenger load factors, and the forecast of annual enplaned passengers, This is shown in Exhibit 3-23.

Exhibit 3-23: Passenger and Charter Carrier Operations Forecast

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Scheduled Passengers 96,089 96,155 98,222 100,334 102,491 104,695 116,444 144,046 261,322 Enplaned Passengers/ Departure 12.4 13.5 14.7 15.8 16.9 18.0 20.4 25.1 38.8 Average Seats/Departure 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.1 26.7 31.6 43.7 Average Load Factor 73% 73% 73% 74% 74% 74% 77% 79% 89% Total Departures 7,933 7,100 6,704 6,366 6,076 5,824 5,703 5,740 6,739 Total Scheduled Commercial Operations 15,866 14,199 13,407 12,733 12,152 11,648 11,407 11,480 13,479 Charter Passengers 17,836 5,061 5,170 5,281 5,394 5,510 6,129 7,581 13,754 Enplaned Passengers/ Departure 87 86 86 85 85 84 84 84 84 Average Seats/Departure 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 120 Average Load Factor 72% 72% 71% 71% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% Total Charter Departures 206 59 60 62 64 66 73 90 164 Total Charter Operations 412 118 121 124 128 131 146 181 327 Total Scheduled and Charter Operations 16,278 14,317 13,528 12,857 12,280 11,779 11,553 11,661 13,806

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Forecasts of future air carrier operations by aircraft category are presented in Exhibit 3-24. Operations forecasts by aircraft category were based on the projected percentage of that aircraft category relative to the total commercial and charter fleet operations anticipated in each benchmark year. The exhibit references a representative aircraft type for each aircraft category. Overall, the "10 and fewer seat" and "11 to 30 seat" categories decline slowly over the forecast period while the "31 to 60 seat" and "more than 60 seat" categories increase consistent with FAA long-term growth projection. The average annual rate of change for each aircraft category is as follows:

• 10 Seats or less: -0.49 percent Average Annual Growth. • 11 to 30 Seats: -0.46 percent Average Annual Growth. • 31 to 60 Seats: 0.45 percent Average Annual Growth. • More than 60 Seats: 3.0 percent Average Annual Growth.

For the largest aircraft category, charter activity by B-737 type equipment is expected to account for approximately 25 percent of the "more than 60 seats" operations. Additional large aircraft operations by scheduled passenger carriers are also expected. This question will be addressed in more detail under the Critical Aircraft discussion. Passenger and charter aircraft fleet mix operations are presented in Exhibit 3-24.

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Exhibit 3-24: Passenger/Charter Fleet Mix and Operations Forecast

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Aircraft with 10 seats or less (Cessna 206 – 5 seats) Percent of Fleet 32.0% 32% 32% 32% 31% 31% 30% 29% 25% Subtotal Operations 5,207 4,558 4,287 4,056 3,855 3,681 3,466 3,323 3,452 Aircraft with 11 to 30 seats (Beech 1900 - 19 seats) Percent of Fleet 37.8% 38% 38% 37% 37% 37% 36% 35% 30% Subtotal Operations 6,158 5,399 5,086 4,819 4,588 4,388 4,159 4,023 4,142 Aircraft with 31 to 60 seats (Dash 8/200 – 37 seats) Percent of Fleet 28.0% 28% 28% 28% 28% 28% 30% 32% 35% Subtotal Operations 4,561 4,018 3,803 3,620 3,463 3,328 3,466 3,731 4,832 Aircraft with more than 60 seats including Charters (B-737/200 – 120 seats) Percent of Fleet 2.2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 10% Subtotal Operations 352 341 352 362 372 383 462 583 1,381 Total Operations 16,278 14,317 13,528 12,857 12,280 11,779 11,553 11,661 13,806

Operations Forecast By Aircraft Type 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 - 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050

More than 60 Seats 31 to 60 Seats 11 to 30 Seats 10 Seats or Less

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3.7 PEAKING CHARACTERISTICS

3.7.1 Enplaned Passenger Peaking

Peak passenger levels may impact the need for terminal facilities such as curbside footage, hold room areas, baggage claim, and parking requirements. Forecasts of peak passenger enplanement levels were prepared using three key indicators of peak aviation activity including:

• Peak Month: Defined as that month in the calendar year when the highest overall activity levels occur. The term “Design Month” is interchangeable with peak month.

• Average Day: Defined as the average day within the peak month. This indicator is developed by dividing the peak month activity by 30.

• Peak Hour: Defined as the peak hour activity within the average day. For enplaned passengers, the peak hour is calculated as:

Peak Hour Passengers = Enplaned Passengers/Departure x Departures

Exhibit 3-25 presents the distribution of passenger enplanements by month for 2000. Peak month passenger activity occurred during September with 9.7 percent of the total operations for the year. Average Day activity for September 2000, was 358 enplaned passengers or 3.2 percent of the monthly total.

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Exhibit 3-25: 2000 Enplaned Passenger Distribution

Enplanements Monthly Enplanements Average Day Average Day as

by Month as Percent of Annual Enplanements Percent of Monthly January 8,659 7.6% 279 3.2% February 8,764 7.7% 283 3.2% March 9,074 8.0% 293 3.2% April 9,288 8.2% 300 3.2% May 10,012 8.8% 323 3.2% June 10,217 9.0% 330 3.2% July 9,752 8.6% 315 3.2% August 10,731 9.4% 346 3.2% September 11,105 9.7% 358 3.2% October 9,483 8.3% 306 3.2% November 8,839 7.8% 285 3.2% December 8,001 7.0% 258 3.2% Source: Based on passenger enplanement and aircraft operations statistics provided by Bellingham International Airport

For forecasting purposes, Peak Month and Average Day percentages of 9.7 percent of annual and 3.2 percent of Peak Month enplanements were used to project corresponding passenger activity based on annual forecasts provided earlier in this chapter. Future Peak Hour enplanements were forecast using estimates of Peak Hour departures and anticipated enplanements per departure for major and regional air carriers.

Forecasts for major and regional carrier enplaned passengers per departure are presented earlier in this chapter.

Exhibit 3-26 summarizes the Enplaned Passenger peaking forecasts for years 2000 through 2050. As already noted under the design operations forecast, Peak Hour departures are assumed to remain flat throughout the planning period. Similarly, as passenger traffic grows over time, the average number of seats per departure and the number of enplaned passengers per departure will both increase thereby accommodating larger passenger volumes.

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Exhibit 3-26: Enplaned Passenger Peaking Forecast

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Total Annual Enplanements 113,925 101,216 103,392 105,615 107,886 110,205 122,573 151,627 275,076 Peak Month Enplanements1 11,105 9,786 9,997 10,212 10,431 10,655 11,851 14,660 26,596 Average Day Enplanements2 346 316 322 329 336 344 382 473 858

Annual Operations 16,278 14,317 13,528 12,857 12,280 11,779 11,553 11,661 13,806 Annual Departures 8,139 7,158 6,764 6,428 6,140 5,890 5,776 5,830 6,903 Average Seats/Departure -- 5 10 14 19 24 27 32 44 Annual Enplaned Passengers 113,925 101,216 103,392 105,615 107,886 110,205 122,573 151,627 275,076 Enplaned Passengers/Departure3 14.0 14 15 16 18 19 21 26 40 Peak Hour Departures 444444 457 Peak Hour Enplaned Passengers4 55 59 66 70 72 76 92 140 296 1Calculated at 9.7 percent of Annual Enplanements 2Peak Month Enplanements divided by 31 3Composite scheduled and charter enplaned passengers 4Calculated as Enplaned Passengers/Departure x Peak Hour Departures

3.7.2 Air Carrier Operations Peaking

Average 1999 and 2000 monthly statistics for passenger and charter landings compiled by the Airport are presented in Exhibit 3-27 on the following page. Total carrier operations are calculated by doubling aircraft landings.

Between 1999 and 2000, average monthly activity amounted to 8.3 percent of annual operations. Monthly passenger and charter operations ranged from a low of 7.2 percent of total annual operations in February to a high of 9.7 percent of annual operations in August. The month of July followed August in peak activity, with operations representing 9.2 percent of total annual activity. The forecast of future peak month activity has been projected at 9.7 percent of projected annual operations.

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Exhibit 3-27: 1990 to 2000 Average Operations Distribution

Average Total Percent of Average Monthly Average Annual Departures Operations Operations January 888 1,777 7.7% February 833 1,666 7.2% March 956 1,912 8.3% April 947 1,893 8.2% May 977 1,954 8.5% June 1004 2,007 8.7% July 1063 2,125 9.2% August 1117 2,234 9.7% September 1013 2,026 8.8% October 956 1,912 8.3% November 904 1,807 7.8% December 898 1,797 7.8% Average Total 11,555 23,110 Source: Based on historical data provided by Bellingham International Airport

A review of the existing flight schedule for BLI earlier in this chapter indicates that operations by scheduled passenger carriers are reasonably evenly distributed throughout the day. The destination charter carrier operations are assumed to occur on a different schedule with predominant activity in the afternoon and evening hours and, therefore, not expected to significantly contribute to peak demand. Future Peak Hour operations are forecast at 8.0 percent of Average Day activity.

Based on the operations forecasts presented earlier in this chapter, Peak Month, Average Day, and Peak Hour operations are presented in Exhibit 3-28. Peak Hour operations for passenger and charter carriers are expected to remain flat through the end of the forecast period as increasing passenger levels are offset by larger aircraft and increased load factors.

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Exhibit 3-28: Air Carrier Operations Peaking Forecast1

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Airline/Air Taxi/Charter 19,448 14,317 13,528 12,857 12,280 11,779 11,553 11,661 13,806 Air Cargo 3,378 2,500 3,833 4,250 4,250 4,475 5,821 9,849 15,972 Total Commercial Operations 22,826 16,817 17,362 17,107 16,530 16,254 17,374 21,510 29,779 Peak Month Operations2 2,207 1,626 1,679 1,654 1,598 1,572 1,680 2,080 2,879 Average Day Operations3 71 52 54 53 52 51 54 67 93

Peak Hour Operations4 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 7 1Cargo and Utility/Feeder Operations data pending 2Calculated at 9.7 percent of Annual Operations 3Peak Month Operations divided by 31 4Calculated at 8.0 percent of Average Day Operations

3.8 GENERAL AVIATION AND MILITARY FORECASTS

3.8.1 General Aviation Introduction

Bellingham International Airport serves as the area’s primary general aviation facility as well as serving passenger carriers. Thus, most of the general aviation activity in the Bellingham Region is concentrated at the airport. Consequently, BLI is the business and corporate aviation center for the Bellingham area as well.

Exhibit 3-29, on the following page, shows general aviation-based aircraft at BLI over the past ten years.

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Exhibit 3-29: Historical Based Aircraft

Year Based Aircraft 1990 136 1991 159 1992 158 1993 158 1994 157 1995 137 1996 Missing 1997 138 1998 136 1999 170 2000 175 Source: FAA TAF, BLI Records and Current 5010 Form

As can be seen, based aircraft fluctuated slightly over the ten-year period with a sharp increase in the 1999-2000 time frame. Airport staff reports the recent increase in based aircraft resulted from additional basing capacity becoming available as new hangar facilities were completed. Staff also reports additional unmet basing demand as evidenced by a waiting list maintained for aircraft owners seeking to base at the airport as space becomes available. Exhibit 3-30 presents a breakdown of the recent based aircraft fleet mix at BLI.

Exhibit 3-30: Existing Based Aircraft Fleet

1997 1998 1999 2000 Single-Engine 129 129 157 163 Multi-Engine/ Turboprop 5 0 5 7 Turbo Fan 0 3 3 3 Rotor 3 3 5 2 Ultralight 1 1 0 0 Total 138 136 170 175 Source: FAA TAF, Washington State Aviation System Plan, BLI Airport Records

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3.8.2 General Aviation Industry Economic Considerations

Forecasting general aviation demand is always difficult due to the fluctuations that have characterized this industry. Historically, general aviation grew rapidly until the late 1970s. From the late 1970s through the mid-1980s, severe declines were experienced; but these have leveled off and some stability has been seen since. The factors most commonly cited as causing these trends include the increased cost (and decline in manufacture) of new general aviation aircraft, the increased cost of operating an aircraft, and a decline in the number of new pilots.

Nationwide, 2000 marked the sixth year since the passage of the General Aviation Revitalization Act of 1994. The FAA Long- Range Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025 reports that since the passage of the 1994 Act over 250,000 new general aviation jobs have been created, aircraft production has increased 100 percent, general aviation company research has increased 150 percent, and the number of student pilots is increasing.

The FAA expects continued growth in both the number of aircraft as well as the utilization expressed in terms of hours flown. However, FAA also acknowledges the predictions are predicated on continued economic stability and the success of programs such as “GA Team 2000” to stimulate expanded aircraft production and growth in student pilots.

The long-term impacts, if any, of recent terrorist attacks on the U.S. and resulting restrictions placed on general aviation are yet to be determined. The current economic downturn will have some impact on general aviation if only in the short-term until the economy recovers. General aviation may benefit however from the difficulties and uncertainty of commercial passenger service, particularly for the corporate and business traveler. Delays or

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increased time required by increasing security measures at major airports, as well as airline cutbacks in service to smaller communities may cause business travelers to consider general aviation as an alternative for short and intermediate haul trips.

In developing this forecast, consideration was given to the fact that the area is showing positive growth in both population and employment, two indicators that traditionally have been directly related to the number of private aircraft based at an airport. Additionally, the general aviation environment has demonstrated the potential for growth at Bellingham International when additional basing capacity has become available. As the FAA growth rate forecasts show, turbine-powered higher performance business aircraft can expect the highest rate of growth.

Over the 50-year forecast period of this master plan update, factors such as the cost of fuel and the overall economics of aircraft ownership and operation will likely have the most significant impact on the industry.

3.8.3 Based Aircraft Forecast

In the future, the FAA expects general aviation aircraft to grow at an average annual rate of 0.9 percent between 2000 and 2012, and 0.8 percent between 2013 and 2025. The near and long term FAA growth rates for specific segments of the general aviation aircraft fleet are as follows:

• Piston Aircraft: FAA projected growth is 0.6 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2012, 0.5 percent average annual growth from 2013 to 2025.

• Fixed-Wing Turbine Aircraft: Turboprop and turbofan aircraft are projected to grow at 3.0 percent annually from 2000 to 2012, and 2.2 percent average annual growth from 2013 to 2025.

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• Helicopter: Growth rates, calculated from projected fleet numbers, are 1.9 percent average annual growth from 2000 to 2012, and approximately 1.0 percent average annual growth from 2013 to 2025.

In preparing these forecasts, three categories of activity have been considered. The first examines the general aviation-based aircraft at the facility and projects future fleet levels. The second forecast looks at total general aviation activity levels at the airport.

In projecting the number of general aviation aircraft to be based at BLI, two methodologies were used:

• Aircraft/Population Ratio. In this model, the historical average number of aircraft based at the airport was related to the number Whatcom County between 1985 and 2000. The long-term average ratio was 9.92 aircraft for each 10,000 population. Over the 15-year period, there was no significant upward or downward trend in this ratio. Given the state of the general aviation industry, it is unlikely that this ratio will grow in the future. Therefore, the projection was made by applying the historical average ratio to the forecasts of population.

• FAA Growth Rates. The FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts - Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025 project the total general aviation aircraft fleet to grow at 0.9 percent annually between 2000 and 2012, and 0.8 percent between 2013 and 2025. Although the FAA forecasts end at 2025, it has been further assumed that growth in the general aviation fleet will slow to 0.5 percent annually between 2025 and 2050 due to the combined impact of increased energy costs and increasing congestion in the air transportation system. The above growth rates were applied to the existing BLI based aircraft reported as of 2000.

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• FAA Terminal Area Forecast Extrapolation. The FAA Terminal Area Forecasts project based aircraft at BLI through 2015. The TAF forecast has been extended to 2050 by extrapolating the overall based aircraft trend from 1985 to 2015. It should be noted that FAA TAF based aircraft figures for BLI for 1999 and 2000 differ significantly from actual based aircraft reported by the airport. The TAF forecast projects 136 and 137 aircraft respectively compared to the actual 170 and 175 based aircraft.

Exhibit 3-31 above shows the forecast numbers resulting from these methodologies. The FAA Growth Rate Model is the preferred forecast of based aircraft recommended to be used in this Master Plan Update. The FAA TAF forecast does not appear to adequately reflect actual demand currently experienced at the airport. The Aircraft/Population Model projecting based aircraft to more than double over the forecast period seems unlikely, particularly since, according to FAA fleet mix projections, the growth would be primarily in the high-performance turbine aircraft category.

Exhibit 3-31: Projections of Based Aircraft

Forecast Model 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 TAF Extrapolation 175 165 161 158 154 151 161 172 207 FAA Growth Rate 175 179 180 181 183 184 193 209 243 Aircraft/Population Ratio 175 182 184 187 189 191 210 252 366 Note: Year 2000 is actual

3.8.4 General Aviation Fleet Mix Forecast

It is important for future planning to determine the fleet mix, or the types of airplanes, comprising the based aircraft. In making a projection of the future fleet at BLI, consideration has been given to the shifts in general aviation that has been occurring across the

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nation. As stated, the industry is moving toward more sophisticated, turbine-powered aircraft. The smaller piston airplanes are aging, and new aircraft manufacturing for this segment of the industry is slow. Therefore, over the course of the 50 years covered by this study, it can be expected that the airplanes at BLI will make a similar transition.

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Exhibit 3-32 shows the expected changes to be experienced in the composition of the based aircraft fleet at the airport. As shown, both the number and percentage of turbine-powered aircraft will increase at a much higher rate than will the piston-engine aircraft. It is anticipated that the number of single-engine piston airplanes will remain stable throughout the period with any additions in this category being offset by attrition.

Exhibit 3-32: Based Aircraft Fleet Mix

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Piston 163 166 167 167 169 170 175 185 203 % of Fleet 93.1% 92.6% 92.5% 92.3% 92.2% 92.0% 91.5% 89.6% 83.6% Applied Growth Rate 0.54% 0.54% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.60% 0.50% 0.30% Multi-Engine/ Turboprop 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 13 22 % of Fleet 4.00% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 6.2% 8.9% Applied Growth Rate 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% Turbo-Fan 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 9 % of Fleet 1.70% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 3.8% Applied Growth Rate 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% Helicopter 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 9 % of Fleet 1.14% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 3.6% Applied Growth Rate 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Total Aircraft 175 179 180 181 183 185 191 206 243 Based on FAA Long-range growth rates by type

Year 2000 Based Aircraft Fleet Year 2050 Based Aircraft Fleet

7 32 9 9 22

203 163 Piston Turboprop Turbo-Fan Helicopter Piston Turboprop Turbo-Fan Helicopter

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The growth rates by aircraft type reflected in the forecasts are based on FAA long-range forecast growth rates discussed above. Helicopters are assigned a higher growth rate than in FAA national long-range forecasts as at BLI, their relative relationship to the local based aircraft fleet (1.1 percent) is significantly lower than the national average (3.9 percent). It is assumed that, over time, helicopters as a percentage of local fleet mix will migrate closer to national averages. The projected 2050 helicopter allocation at BLI is still only 3.6 percent of the overall based aircraft fleet, a full percentage point lower than extrapolated national figures.

3.8.5 General Aviation Operations

General aviation operations fall into two categories: local, defined as aircraft that operate in the local traffic pattern or within sight of the airport, or are known to be departing for or arriving from a local practice area; and itinerant, which are all others. In projecting general aviation operations at BLI, total operations projections were developed and then distributed between local and itinerant operations. Three separate projections of operations were produced as follows:

• Operations per Based Aircraft (OPBA). In this methodology, the average annual GA operations per based aircraft between 1985 and 2000 were calculated. It is recognized that not all GA operations at the airport were performed by airplanes that were based there, but this relationship serves as a good indicator/predictor for future operations. At BLI, there were on average 401 operations per based aircraft between 1985 and 2000. This ratio was applied to the forecast of based aircraft for each benchmark year to arrive at a forecast of operations.

• Trend Analysis. In this analysis, the number of operations recorded since 1985 were examined, and projections made

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assuming the trend exhibited between 1985 and 2000 would continue into the future.

• FAA Forecast. The most recent operations projections prepared by the FAA for BLI in the existing Terminal Area Forecast are presented for years 2000 to 2015 with values beyond 2015 extrapolated to 2050 at the same growth rate.

The results of the forecast models are presented in Exhibit 3-33.

Exhibit 3-33: Forecast of General Aviation Operations

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 FAA TAF Extrapolation 65,489 67,575 68,271 68,966 69,662 70,357 73,018 83,893 115,582 Operations per Based Aircraft 65,489 69,047 70,233 71,418 72,604 73,790 77,424 83,924 97,277 Operations Trend 65,489 67,795 68,563 69,332 70,495 71,659 77,477 89,112 121,692

In reviewing the forecast models, the FAA TAF extrapolation yields an overall average annual rate of growth of approximately 1.1 percent over the 50-year forecast period. The Operations per Based Aircraft Model yields only a 0.8 percent growth. The Operations Trend Model results in a 1.3-percent growth rate. The FAA’s long-range average annual growth rate for aircraft utilization between 2000 and 2025 is approximately 1.8 percent. Consequently, the Operations Trend Model is believed to most closely reflect increased operations activity at BLI over the forecast period.

General aviation operations may be further allocated to the aircraft categories comprising the based aircraft fleet at BLI. Exhibit 3-34 presents the breakdown of operations by aircraft type.

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Exhibit 3-34: General Aviation Operations by Type

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Piston 163 166 167 167 169 170 175 185 203 % of Fleet 93.1% 92.6% 92.5% 92.3% 92.2% 92.0% 91.5% 89.6% 83.6% Applied Growth Rate 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% Operations 60,998 62,798 63,396 63,994 64,972 65,934 70,922 79,856 101,768 Turboprop 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 13 22 % of Fleet 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.9% 6.2% 8.9% Applied Growth Rate 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% Operations 2,620 2,914 3,014 3,114 3,222 3,340 3,826 5,514 10,869 Turbo-Fan 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 9 % of Fleet 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.4% 3.8% Applied Growth Rate 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.2% 2.0% Operations 1,123 1,249 1,292 1,335 1,381 1,431 1,640 2,178 4,658 Helicopter 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 9 % of Fleet 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 3.6% Applied Growth Rate 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% Operations 748 833 861 890 921 954 1,089 1,564 4,396 Total Aircraft 175 179 180 181 183 185 191 206 243 Total Operations 65,489 67,795 68,563 69,332 70,495 71,659 77,477 89,112 121,692

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Records of general aviation activity at BLI show that, on average, about 38 percent of all operations were local and 62 percent itinerant. Future levels of local and itinerant activity were forecast using this distribution as shown in Exhibit 3-35.

Exhibit 3-35: Forecast of Local and Itinerant GA Activity

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Local Operations 24,886 25,762 26,054 26,346 26,788 27,230 29,441 33,863 46,243 Itinerant Operations 40,603 42,033 42,509 42,986 43,707 44,428 48,035 55,250 75,449 Total Operations 65,489 67,795 68,563 69,332 70,495 71,659 77,477 89,112 121,692

3.8.6 Military Activity

Between 1985 and 2000, total military operations at BLI averaged 1,025 annually (1,415 in 2000). During the same period, itinerant military operations have averaged 68 percent of total military operations. In forecasting future military operations levels, it has been assumed that they would remain a low percentage of total airport activity. The current FAA terminal Area Forecast projects military activity to remain at a constant of 1,347 operations, the 1999 level, through the end of the TAF forecast period in 2015. The forecast for military operations assumes that the total annual military operations will remain steady at the projected FAA level throughout the forecasting period.

3.8.7 General Aviation/Military Peaking

The growth in the general aviation based aircraft fleet at BLI, as well as the consistent activity levels expected for military operations, are not expected to significantly change the pattern of peak hour activity for general aviation operations. As a result, the relationship between annual, peak month, average day, and peak hour activity is assumed to be essentially the same as has existed historically. For the peaking forecast, military operations are

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included, along with the general aviation forecast calculations. Exhibit 3-36 presents general aviation/military peaking activity for the forecast period.

Exhibit 3-36: General Aviation/Military Peaking Forecast

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Total Operations 66,904 69,142 69,910 70,679 71,842 73,006 78,824 90,459 123,039 Peak Month Operations1 7,252 7,122 7,201 7,280 7,400 7,520 8,119 9,317 12,673 Average Day Operations2 234 230 232 235 239 243 262 301 409 Peak Hour Operations3 23 23 23 23 24 24 26 30 41 1Calculated at 10.3 percent of annual operations 2Peak Month operations divided by 31 3Calculated at 10.0 percent of Average Day operations

3.9 PEAK ACTIVITY SUMMARY

Exhibit 3-37 on the following page summarizes the total peaking activity forecasts for commercial, general aviation and military operations and activity through the end of the forecast period. Operations figures include major and regional passenger carriers, charter operators, general aviation, and military activity. Peak passenger activity includes enplaned passengers for major and regional airlines.

Peak Hour operations are expected to increase from 34 operations per hour in 2000, to 41 operations per hour in 2022, and 58 operations at the end of the long-range forecast period. Peak Hour passengers are expected to grow from 80 enplaned passengers per hour in 2000, to 140 passengers per hour in 2022, and 296 passengers by the end of the long-range forecast period.

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Exhibit 3-37: Peaking Forecast Summary

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Operations Total Operations 89,730 85,958 87,272 87,785 88,372 89,260 95,409 111,969 152,818 Peak Month Operations (11.8%) 10,588 10,143 10,298 10,359 10,428 10,533 11,258 13,212 18,033 Average Day Operations (31-day 342 327 332 334 336 340 363 426 582 month) Peak Hour Operations (10.0%) 34 33 33 33 34 34 36 43 58 Enplanements Total Annual Enplanements 113,925 101,216 103,392 105,615 107,886 110,205 122,573 151,627 275,076 Peak Month Enplanements (9.7%) 11,105 9,786 9,997 10,212 10,431 10,655 11,851 14,660 26,596 Average Day Enplanements (31-day 346 316 322 329 336 344 382 473 858 month) Peak Hour Percent of Average Day 23.0 18.8 20.5 21.3 21.5 22.1 24.7 29.5 34.5 Peak Hour Enplaned Passengers 80 59 66 70 72 76 92 140 296

3.10 INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS

An instrument operation at an airport is defined as: any arrival or departure from an airport by aircraft operating in accordance with an instrument flight rule (IFR) flight plan or with the provision of IFR separation from other aircraft by a terminal control facility; or any contact with the ATCT by aircraft operating under an IFR Flight plan. Instrument operations can be conducted at any time, regardless of meteorological conditions. Actual instrument approaches, however, are defined as instrument operations conducted during instrument meteorological conditions. Instrument meteorological conditions exist when the cloud ceiling is less than 1,000 feet above ground level (AGL) and/or visibility is less than three miles.

At BLI, between 1990 and 2000 the reported number of annual instrument operations averaged 23 percent of total operations as noted in Exhibit 3-38, on the following page.

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Exhibit 3-38: Historical Ratio of Instrument Operations and Total Operations

Instrument Total Instrument Operations Year Operations Operations as Percent of Total 1990 17,931 75,114 24% 1991 17,610 78,778 23% 1992 19,488 84,993 23% 1993 18,091 81,083 23% 1994 18,090 83,522 21% 1995 18,598 83,373 23% 1996 20,346 81,003 24% 1997 18,290 80,401 23% 1998 18,137 70,338 26% 1999 17,898 83,592 22% 2000 18,483 89,730 23% Historical Average 23% Source: FAA Terminal Area Forecasts

In forecasting future growth in the number of instrument operations, four methodologies were tested. Each of the models is summarized below.

• Historical Average Ratio: As already noted, the historical average ratio of instrument operations to total operations is 23 percent. The Historical Average Ratio model applied this ratio to future total operations forecasts.

• Historical Trend: This approach calculated the historical trend in instrument operations and projected future activity based on the resulting trend line.

• FAA Terminal Area Forecast Extrapolation: This approach accepted the existing FAA Terminal Area Forecast projections for instrument operations through 2015 and extrapolated activity out to 2050 using the same growth rate applied by the FAA.

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• FAA Long-Range Average Growth: The FAA Long-Range Aerospace Forecasts – Fiscal Years 2015, 2020 and 2025 projects instrument operations to grow at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent through 2025. This growth rate was applied to the last year of actual instrument operations at BLI and extended through the end of the forecast period.

The projections resulting from of each of these forecast models are presented in Exhibit 3-39.

Exhibit 3-39: Forecast of Instrument Operations

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Total Operations 89,730 85,958 87,272 87,785 87,372 89,260 95,409 111,969 152,818 Historical Average Model 18,483 18,905 19,327 19,749 20,171 20,593 22,012 25,832 35,257 Ratio of Total Operations 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23% Historical Trend Model 18,483 18,522 18,562 18,601 18,640 18,680 18,794 19,022 19,708 Ratio of Total Operations 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 17% 13% FAA Terminal Area Forecast Extrapolation 18,483 18,564 18,646 18,727 18,809 18,890 19,313 20,167 22,714 Ratio of Total Operations 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 21% 20% 18% 15% FAA Long-range Average Growth Rate Model 18,483 18,908 19,333 19,758 20,183 20,608 22,976 28,562 54,868 Ratio of Total Operations 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 24% 26% 36% Preferred Forecast 18,483 18,905 19,327 19,749 20,171 20,593 22,012 25,832 34,257 Ratio of Total Operations 21% 22% 22% 22% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%

The selected or preferred forecast reflects the average ratio seen over the past ten years. The Historical Trend and FAA TAF models show substantial declines in the level of instrument operations over time, even as the level of aircraft and operations are increasing. Conversely, the FAA Long-Range Growth model results in instrument operations nearly double the historical average by the end of the forecast period. Given the stability of the long-term average ratio of instrument operations, the Historical Average model has been selected.

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For forecasting purposes, no distinction has been made between instrument operations and instrument approaches at BLI. At some airports, a significant number of instrument flights transiting the airport traffic area can occur that don’t result in an actual approach or landing at the facility. This can contribute to controller workloads beyond that which might be apparent from a single forecast alone. In making this determination, it was assumed that all air carrier and destination charter operations would be instrument approaches regardless of the weather. Exhibit 3-40 presents the breakdown of instrument and visual aircraft operations through the end of the forecast period.

Exhibit 3-40: Summary of Visual and Instrument Approaches

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Visual Operations 71,247 67,053 67,945 68,036 68,201 68,667 73,397 86,137 117,561 Air Carrier/Charter Instrument Operations 16,278 14,317 13,528 12,857 12,280 11,779 10,764 11,661 13,806 General

Aviation/Military 2,205 4,588 5,799 6,892 7,892 8,814 11,247 14,172 21,450 Instrument Operations Total Operations 89,730 85,958 87,272 87,785 88,372 89,260 95,409 111,969 152,818

3.11 CRITICAL AIRCRAFT AND OPERATIONS ACTIVITY

3.11.1 The Critical Aircraft

The Critical Aircraft selected for the airport reflects the operating requirements of the most demanding aircraft (or family of aircraft) expected to generate 500 or more itinerant operations per year. The Critical Aircraft is used as the basis for comparing airport facilities against the operating requirements of aircraft regularly using the facility. It also determines which FAA planning and design criteria, as defined by the FAA’s Airport Reference Code (ARC), should apply to the airport.

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The FAA’s Airport Reference Code is a classification system developed to relate airport design criteria to the operational and physical characteristics of the airplanes expected to operate at the airport. The ARC is based on two key characteristics of the designated Critical Aircraft. The first characteristic, denoted in the ARC by a letter code, is the Aircraft Approach Category as determined by the aircraft’s approach speed in the landing configuration. Generally, aircraft approach speed affects runway length, exit taxiway locations, and runway-related facilities. The ARC approach speed categories are as follows:

• Category A: Speed less than 91 knots; • Category B: Speed 91 knots or more, but less than 121 knots; • Category C: Speed 121 knots or more, but less than 141 knots; • Category D: Speed 141 knots or more, but less than 166 knots; and • Category E: Speed 166 knots or more.

The second ARC component, depicted by a Roman numeral, is the Airplane Design Group. The Airplane Design Group is defined by the aircraft’s wingspan and determines dimensional standards for the layout of airport facilities, such as separation criteria between runways and taxiways, taxilanes, buildings, or objects potentially hazardous to aircraft movement on the ground. The Airplane Design Group categories include:

• Design Group I: Wingspan up to but not including 49 feet; • Design Group II: Wingspan 49 feet up to but not including 79 feet; • Design Group III: Wingspan 79 feet up to but not including 118 feet; • Design Group IV: Wingspan 118 feet up to but not including 171 feet; • Design Group V: Wingspan 171 feet up to but not including 214 feet; • Design Group VI: Wingspan 214 feet up to but not including 262 feet.

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The 1997 Master Plan Update recommended airport facilities, geometry and separations to be developed to Design Group III standards based on the activity forecasts. The forecasts showed the Dash 8 aircraft (ARC A-III) met the requisite operations levels at the time, with the MD 80 aircraft (ARC C-III) anticipated to meet Critical Aircraft activity levels in the future.

The plan also recommended that, to the extent possible, ARC Design Group IV standards be accommodated between the runway and apron parking to preserve future flexibility.

The aviation demand forecasts presented in this plan sustain the recommendations of the 1997 Master Plan Update, except to the Design Group IV setback standards for apron parking; these should also be Design Group III.

Essentially all of the operations forecast to occur from aircraft of more than 60 seats will be from ARC Design Group III aircraft including a combination of the Dash 8/400, regional jets (two out of three of the regional jets seating more than 60 passengers are ARC Design Group III aircraft), and B-737-series/MD80-series aircraft operated by the destination charter carriers. The ARC Design Group III aircraft operations are expected to exceed 500 annual take-offs and landings well within the first time period of the forecast, 2003-2007. Exhibit 3-41, on the following page, presents the forecast of operations for the Critical Aircraft Family expected at BLI.

The forecast contained in this chapter will be compared with the FAA Terminal Area Forecast for the year 2015. The following operations by the critical aircraft family are projected: 769 for the DH8/400, 391 for the B737-series, 0 for the B727-series aircraft, and 30 for the MD80-series aircraft.

Bellingham International Airport Master Plan Update – June 2004

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Exhibit 3-41: Critical Aircraft (family) Operations Forecast (BLI)

2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2012 2022 2050 Aircraft with more than 60 seats including Charters (Dash 8-400, 727-200, 737 series, MD80 series) DH8/400 0 286 406 514 614 707 754 1,399 2,761 B737-Series 412 304 313 322 332 341 383 519 1,230 B727-200 0 14 15 15 16 16 0 0 0 MD80-Series 0 23 24 25 25 26 29 39 93 Total Operations 412 627 757 876 986 1,090 1,252 1,958 4,084

Bellingham International Airport Master Plan Update – June 2004

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