Denim Intelligence Report

DENIM INTELLIGENCE REPORT

relevant analyze actionable DEMAND SIGNALS PRODUCT ATTRIBUTES BUSINESS INSIGHTS SOCIAL SEARCH SKUs

the consumer AGENDA ------REPORT OVERVIEW ------01 ------MARKET SCORECARD ------02 --- 03 ------PRICE ANALYSIS ------EMERGING TRENDS ------04 --- 05 ------CORE SILHOUETTES ------BRANDS TO WACH ------06 ------MARKET INNOVATION ------07 ------KEY TAKEAWAYS ------08 --- DENIM DISRUPTION

KEY TAKEAWAYS The denim market is undergoing substantial disruption, unseen since the rise and fall of premium denim in the 2000s.

1. Customer experience innovation and new players entering the market are leveling the playing field.

2. Purchasing decisions are moving from brand-driven to trend-driven.

3. A vintage revival is leading to an influx of new silhouettes.

WOMENS DENIM

FlareBootcut Flare Bootcut Straight BootcutRelaxed Relaxed 2% 1% Bootcut3% 3% Cropped 4% 4% 4% 6% Flare 4% Flare 5% Distressed 6% 9% Relaxed 7% 6% Distressed Cropped 7% Distressed 7% 10% Distressed 10% FAST FASHION Relaxed SPECIALTY Straight PREMIUM LUXURY 7% 12% Cropped 14% Straight Skinny/Stretch Skinny/Stretc Skinny/Stret 15% Skinny/Stretch 55% Cropped h 40% ch 72% 52% Straight 15% 20% Current Trend: Distressed Current Trend: High Waist Current Trend: Frayed Hem Current Trend: Embroidery Test Opportunity: Step Hem Skinny Test Opportunity: Denim Test Opportunity: Lace Up Test Opportunity: Cropped Jacket Flare MENS DENIM

Men’s Slim Fit Jeans Men’s Stretch Jeans

Bootcut Bootcut Relaxed Bootcut Tapered Relaxed Distressed Relaxed Tapered 3% Tapered 2% 1% 1% 4% 1% Relaxed 3% 3% Distressed 5% Distressed Distressed 3% Tapered 4% 6% 11% 4% 4% Stretch Stretch Stretch 6% 11% 9% Stretch Slim Straight 14% 30% FAST FASHION SPECIALTY Skinny PREMIUM LUXURY 18% Slim 16% 18% Straight Straight 35% 34% Skinny Skinny Straight 40% Slim 19% 21% 22% Skinny Slim 24% 29% MARKET PRICING

41% 46% products at full price products at full price

WOMEN MEN Overall there are double the number of women’s products in Overall 46% of men’s products are currently at full price the market than men’s jeans. 41% of products are currently with an AUR of $159.04 and average mkd rate of 24%. at full price with an AUR $128.43 and average mkd rate of Brands with highest product penetration include Diesel, 7 34%. for all Mankind, Dsquared2, and Levi’s. Brands with the highest product penetration include J Retailers include Yoox, Farfetch, Amazon, and ASOS. Brand, Paige, 7 for all Mankind, and Current/Elliot. Retailers include Yoox, TheRealReal, Farfetch, and Amazon.

DIVISION DENIM DIVISION DENIM AVERAGE MARKET AUR RANGE AVERAGE FULL MARKET AUR RANGE AVERAGE FULL AVERAGE FULL FULL PRICE % PRICE % PRICE % PRICE %

FAST FASHION $43.22 $10 - $50 62% 50% FAST FASHION $33.02 $10 - $50 36% 40%

SPECIALTY $71.37 $25 - $100 43% 40% SPECIALTY $69.31 $25 - $100 44% 41%

PREMIUM $149.45 $100 - $250 50% 50% PREMIUM $147.00 $100 - $250 49% 50%

LUXURY $431.20 $250+ 56% 54% LUXURY $524.29 $250+ 66% 65%

WOMENS DENIM MENS DENIM VALUE vs. AMAZON

VALUE / OFF-PRICE AMAZON

PRICING ARCHITECTURE

DENIM AVERAGE DENIM AVERAGE MARKET AUR RANGE FULL PRICE % MARKDOWN RATE

VALUE / OFF $88.09 $10 - 500 21% 51% PRICE

AMAZON $88.52 $10 - 500 46% 10% SOCIAL BUZZ

SOCIAL ACTIONS BY MARKET (JANUARY 2017)*

HIGHEST SOCIAL MARKET FAN COUNT SOCIAL ENGAGEMENT ENGAGEMENT

FAST FASHION 154M 25M Forever 21, H&M, Topshop

Hollister, Calvin Klein, Tommy SPECIALTY 131M 14M Hilfiger

PREMIUM 24M 2.6M Good America, A.P.C., Acne

LUXURY 127M 24M Dolce & Gabbana, Gucci WHAT’S HOT?

Market Penetration Hig Low

High

Growth Growth Rate

Low

DENIM TREND ANALYSIS DENIM JACKET

denim jacket 2x Positioned to move out of the early adopter space with 90s revival, embroidery, and distressing driving this trend.

outerwear bomber jacket NOT JUST JEANS

DENIM CHOKER DENIM SKIRT DENIM OVERALLS Nascent, +900% Growing, +15% Mature Search Volume: 3k Search Volume: 46k Search Volume: 8k AUR: $27.17 8x AUR: $175 AUR: $212 SKU’s: 60 SKU’s: 1,800 SKU’s: 133

TOP TRENDS ON THE RISE

EMBELLISHED DISTRESSED HEMS HACKS

nascent growing seasonal / mature volatile EMBELLISHED DENIM

EMBROIDERED JEANS PATCHED JEANS LACE-UP DENIM ONE TO WATCH: Growing +500% Growing +100% Nascent +65% RACER / SIDE Search Volume: 15k Search Volume: 3k Search Volume: 2k STRIPE Social Actions: 170k Social Actions: 22k Social Actions: 42k Early Adopter AUR: $198 AUR: $144 AUR: $265.37 Products at full price: 42% Products at full price: 44% Products at full price: 56% SKU’s: 1,600 SKU’s: 141 SKU’s: 224 Fast / Luxury Premium / Specialty Early Adopter

DISTRESSED DENIM

DISTRESSED RIPPED FRAYED ONE TO WATCH: Growing 50% Growing 30% Nascent/Growing 180% SLOGAN RIPPED Search Volume: 27k Search Volume: 75k Search Volume: 1,300 Early Adopter Social Actions: 390k Social Actions: 560k Social Actions: 42k AUR: $162 AUR: $125 AUR: $184 Products at full price: 52% Products at full price: 52% Products at full price: 64% SKU’s: 5,000 SKU’s: 1,300 SKU’s: 2,000 Premium / Specialty Premium / Specialty Fast / Luxury HEM HACKS

RAW HEM CROP / KICK FLARE UNVEVEN / STEP ONE TO WATCH: Growing +130% Growing 100% HEM RUFFLE HEM Search Volume: 800 Search Volume: 2,500 Nascent, +230% Early Adopter Social Actions: 18k Social Actions: 1,400 Search Volume: 300 AUR: $182 AUR: $186 Social Actions: 3,600 Products at full price: 70% Product at full price: 80% AUR: $182 SKU’s: 90 SKU’s: 200 Product at full price: 81% Specialty / Premium Premium / Luxury Early Adopter / Premium

FRAYED vs. EMBROIDERED

frayed jeans embroidered jeans STEP HEM FORECAST social buzz & product styling step hem jeans velvet boots KEY ITEM ANALYSIS

OUTFIT: High Waist Jeans vs. Crop Tops

vs.

Boyfriend Jeans & Stan Flare Jeans & Wedge Smiths Heels SEASONAL: Over the Knee Boots vs. Black Skinny Jeans CORE SILHOUETTES

nascent growing mature

WIDE LEG HIGH WAIST / RIPPED BOYFRIEND SKINNY CORE SILHOUETTES

SEARCH VOLUME

nascent growing mature declining

Crop Flare Skinny Ripped High Waist Skinny Jegging

Wide Leg Mom Boyfriend Bootcut

Men's Tapered Men's Slim Stretch Straight Low-rise PRODUCT PENETRATION SEARCH GROWTH BOYFRIEND JEANS: when should we break up? Chambray Shirt: 5 years Midi Skirt: 3 years

Bomber Jacket: 2 years

Boyfriend + Slip On vs. Flare Jean + Wedge Heels

Emerging / Test Growing / Top Seller Mature / Core Fit Silhouette JOGGERS

Joggers Hybrid Trend

Curve Search Search volume

Peplum - Boyfriend Jeans - MOMENTUM

ACCELERATION

Month (2012-2017) Premium Brands: WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

7 FOR ALL MANKIND J BRAND JOE’S JEANS Fan Count: 85,658 Fan Count: 347,081 Fan Count: 56,228 AUR: $135.70 AUR: $157.53 AUR: $118.60 Average Mkd Rate: 29% Average Mkd Rate: 27% Average Mkd Rate: 34%

ROCK & REPUBLIC TRUE RELIGION CITIZENS OF HUMANITY Fan Count: 1,129 Fan Count: 236,155 Fan Count: 121,169 AUR: $86.00 AUR: $123.00 AUR: $206.00 Average Mkd Rate: 1% Average Mkd Rate: 36% Average Mkd Rate: 19% BACK TO BRANDING? then now future DIRECT TO CONSUMER CENTERS OF INNOVATON

LOS ANGELES JAPAN • IT Silhouettes • Denim Heritage • Made In USA • Selvage • Celeb • Fabric Endorsed Revice - $$ UniqloInnovation - $ AMO - $$$ Beams - $$ Mother - $$$ EUROPE Moussy - $$$ GRLFRND - $$$ • Fabric Tradition • Minimalism • IT Streetstyle Bethnals- $$ CLOSED – $$$ IRO - $$$$ Marques’ Almeida - $$$$ THE NEW GUARD

Good American RE/DONE Mott & Bow Fan Count: 336k Fan Count: 150k Fan Count: 13k Social Actions: 2.4M Social Actions: 640k Social Actions: 1,200 Brand Prop: 0-24 sizing Brand Prop: Recycled Vintage Brand Prop: DTC / Try on at Home AUR: $172 AUR: $291 AUR: 96-128 BRANDS MAKING HEADLINES

Mother Denim Second Skin 3x1 Fan Count: 79k Fan Count: 14.7 k Fan Count: 32k Social Actions: 370k Social Actions: 880k Social Actions: 740k Brand Prop: Indie LA, Miranda Kerr Brand Prop: Blogger Brand, Seasonless Brand Prop: Custom Made collection Overalls AUR: $177 AUR: $187.79 AUR: $230

RETAIL EXPERIENCES

PATCH BARS DIY SUSTAINABILITY • Custom • Perfect Fit • Reduce Footprint • Instantaneous • Selvage Fabric • Value Proposition • Interactive • One of a Kind • Unique Pieces

Levis - $$ Vintage Twin - $$ Revice - $$ Madewell - $$ Levis Lot 1 - $$$ RE/DONE - $$$ MiH Denim - $$$ 3x1 - $$$$ Vetements + Levi’s - $$$ Selfridges - $$$$ SelvageWork - $$$$ interactive RETAIL

Interactive Vanessa Bruno Displays Embroidery Bar (PERCH)

Personalized Tutorials (MemoMi Smart Mirror) Charlotte Tilbury Cailler Chocolate VR Shop by Look STRATEGIC analysis & use cases

RIGHT PRODUCT RIGHT PRICE RIGHT TIME RIGHT MESSAGE increase sales maximize margin drive conversion brand voice & discovery

Analyze Trend Assortment Efficient Pricing Optimize Plan Marketing Enhance Influencer Curves Architecture Comp Shopping Analysis Product Flows Calendar SEO/SEM Strategy 10%

lift in SALES

Price Optimization x Demand Signals: Senior Product Merchandiser, Luxury Department Store

INCREASE marketing

engagement by 30%

Marketing Content Optimization x Demand Signals: Social Media Manager, National Department Store

CONSUMER centric retailing = increased profitability

ASSORTMENT PLANNING PRODUCT DESIGN & costing & development

improve GM% save 20 days per year

HINDSIGHTING PRODUCT PRICING & line planning. correct product & testing . investment 10% sales lift

30% capitalize on engagement trends MARKETING CALENDAR increase IN-SEASON MANAGEMENT & campaign strategy. & fast chase . denim fashion week beauty report lifestyle trends intelligence report recaps

2016 2017 FEB 2017 MARCH 2017 APPENDIX

PLATFORM RESOURCES

BRANDPUSLSE (CATEGORY TEMPLATES) Denim – Fast Fashion Brands* Denim – Specialty Brands** Denim – Premium Brands*** Denim – Luxury Brands**** Denim –Value & Off Price Retailers*****

TRENDPULSE (CATEGORY TEMPLATES) Denim and Jeans – Silhouette (women's) Denim and Jeans – Wash & Embellishment (women's) Men's - Denim: Wash & Fabric Men's - Denim: Silhouette MARRYING THE ART & SCIENCE OF RETAIL

Karen Moon Co-Founder & CEO 79 Madison Avenue, New York [email protected] www.trendalytics.co