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181 248 206 205 229 162 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 73 225 129 142 191 139 VTB Capital Investment Forum RUSSIA CALLING October 1-2, 2014 Moscow
Colour palette Disclaimer
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 The information contained herein has been prepared using information available to OJSC MMC Norilsk Nickel (“Norilsk Nickel” 151 146 or “NN”) at the time of preparation of the presentation. External or other factors may have impacted on the business of Norilsk 151 48 Nickel and the content of this presentation, since its preparation. In addition all relevant information about Norilsk Nickel may
0 226 not be included in this presentation. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the accuracy, 0 229 0 234 completeness or reliability of the information. Any forward looking information herein has been prepared on the basis of a number of assumptions which may prove to be 20 139 68 174 incorrect. Forward looking statements, by the nature, involve risk and uncertainty and Norilsk Nickel cautions that actual results 108 214 may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. Reference should be made to the most recent
214 166 Annual Report for a description of major risk factors. There may be other factors, both known and unknown to Norilsk Nickel, 5 175 which may have an impact on its performance. This presentation should not be relied upon as a recommendation or forecast 0 190 by Norilsk Nickel, which does not undertake an obligation to release any revision to these statements. 236 64 236 149 Certain market share information and other statements in this presentation regarding the industry in which Norilsk Nickel 236 220 operates and the position of Norilsk Nickel relative to its competitors are based upon information made publicly available by other metals and mining companies or obtained from trade and business organizations and associations. Such information and 181 248 206 205 statements have not been verified by any independent sources, and measures of the financial or operating performance of 229 162 Norilsk Nickel’s competitors used in evaluating comparative positions may have been calculated in a different manner to the
73 225 corresponding measures employed by Norilsk Nickel. 129 142 191 139 This presentation does not constitute or form part of any advertisement of securities, any offer or invitation to sell or issue or any solicitation of any offer to purchase or subscribe for, any shares in Norilsk Nickel, nor shall it or any part of it nor the fact of its presentation or distribution form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or investment decision
1 Colour palette
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0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Markets Overview 236 64 236 149 Company Overview 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
Colour palette Leading Nickel and PGM Mining Major 35 204 Strong Through the Cycle 108 221 Key Highlights … and Conservative 176 237 Margins… Balance Sheet 56% 151 240 World’s largest producer of nickel and palladium with strong 49% 51% 1.1x 151 146 positions in copper, platinum, cobalt and rhodium; 44% 42% 41% 0.8x 0.8x 0.8x 151 48 37% 0.5x World’s best polymetallic reserve base; 0.4x 0 226 0 229 7.2 7.2 5.8 0 234 Lowest cash cost nickel producer worldwide; 4.9 4.2 4.2 2.5 20 139 Sustainably high EBITDA margin through the cycle; 68 174 (0.4)x 108 214 Strong balance sheet with investment grade credit rating from all 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 14 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 14 three international rating agencies (BBB-/Baa2/BBB-); EBITDA EBITDA margin Net Debt / EBITDA 214 166 5 175 0 190 Industry’s Best Tier I Assets Diversified Metals Revenue Mix (1H2014) 236 64 236 149 236 220 Sales by Metal Sales by Region Value per ton of ore (USD)(1) Other 181 248 Polar Division Polar 612 5% 206 205 Platinum 229 162 Kola Division (Polar Division) 9% Asia Xstrata 30% Canada 552 73 225 (Canada) Nickel 129 142 NN Harjavalta 41% Europe 191 139 Doniambo 481 Palladium 52% (Doniambo) 22% USD5.2 bn USD5.2 bn
Vale Canada 427 North (Canada) America PT Vale Russia 9% 318 Copper Tati Nickel Indonesia 9% (Indonesia) 23% Nkomati Nickel BHP Australia 122 Tier I Mining Asset (Australia) International Mining Asset International Plant
Source: Norilsk Nickel 1H 2014 interim consolidated financial statements, AME , LME, Ratings Reports, Companies reporting Notes: (1) Proven and probable reserves before recovery; Calculated using broker consensus’ long term metal prices: USD17,878/t nickel, USD6,474/t copper, USD1,760/oz platinum, USD810/oz palladium, USD1,250/oz gold 3 Colour palette Financial Performance vs. Global Peers
35 204 108 221 (1) 176 237 Leading Returns: EBITDA margin, 1H 2014 Conservative Leverage: Net Debt/EBITDA 0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x 1.4x
151 240 151 146 151 48 5 48% NN 0.8х 0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214 4 44% Rio 0.8х
214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 3 43% BHP 0.9х 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
Vale 1.2х 73 225 2 41% 129 142 191 139
1 30% Anglo 1.3х
Source: Norilsk Nickel, companies’ financial reports for 1H 2014, Bloomberg; Note: 1. Net debt to Adjusted EBITDA for 1H 2014. Calculated as net debt as at the end of the relevant period divided by Adjusted EBITDA for the last 12 consecutive months 4 Colour palette Unique Polymetallic Mineral Resource Base
35 204 108 221 176 237 Nickel (Mt), 2013 Copper (Mt), 2013 Palladium (Moz), 2013 Platinum (Moz), 2013 151 240 151 146 151 48 6.7 12.2 97.0 25.9 Proven and probable Proven and probable Proven and probable Proven and probable 0 226 0 229 12.1 22.6 193.3 54.0 0 234 Measured and indicated Measured and indicated Measured and indicated Measured and indicated 20 139 (1) (1) (1) (1) 68 174 P&P Ore Reserves Nickel Grades Copper Grades PGM Grades 108 214 Mt % 3.0% % g/t 3.0% 6.0 214 166 700 5 175 0 190 2.5% 600 2.5% 5.0
236 64 2.0% 236 149 500 2.0% 4.0 236 220 400 1.5% 1.5% 181 248 3.0 206 205 300 229 162 1.0% 1.0% 2.0 200 73 225 129 142 0.5% 0.5% 1.0 191 139 100
0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0
VNC
PTVI
VNC
PTVI
Andina Salobo
Marula
Bokoni
Talnakh
Olympic
Talnakh
Sudbury
Talnakh
MtKeith
Talnakh
Sudbury
MtKeith
Zimplats
Pandora
Sudbury
Mototolo Limpopo
Grasberg
Antamina
Falcondo
Marikana
Falcondo
MountIsa
Koniambo
Collahuasi
Escondida
Koniambo
Thompson
Thompson
ElTeniente
OncaPuma
OncaPuma
Voisey'sBay
ErnestHenry
Voisey'sBay
Cerro Matoso Cerro Matoso
Source: Norilsk Nickel calculations, companies’ reports Proven and Probable Reserves and additional Measured, Indicated and Inferred resources are stated on 100% consolidated basis Note 1. Based on Proven and Probable reserves, 2013 5
Colour palette World’s Largest Producer of Nickel and Palladium
35 204 108 221 176 237 Norilsk Nickel is the world leader in nickel and palladium production with strong positions in platinum and copper 151 240 151 146 151 48 #1 in Nickel: 14% market share…. 100% = 1,976 kt #1 in Palladium: bigger than OPEC in oil 100% = 203 t 0 226 0 229 0 234 Norilsk 14% Norilsk 41%
Vale Angloplats 20 139 12% 21% 68 174 108 214 Jinchuan 8% Implats 13%
214 166 Xstrata 7% Stillwater 6% 5 175 0 190 BHP 6% Lonmin 5%
236 64 236 149 SMM 3% Vale 5% 236 220 0 5 10 15 0 10 20 30 40 50 #12 in Copper: one of the leaders in refined 181 248 #4 in Platinum: the largest producer outside 206 205 of South Africa 100% = 189 t copper production 100% = 17,700 kt 229 162 Angloplats 39% Codelco 10%
73 225 129 142 Impats 24% Freeport 9% 191 139 Xstrata Lonmin 13% 9% BHP Norilsk 7% 11% Billitron Nickel Antofagasta 4% Northam 3%
Vale 1% Norilsk 2% 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Source: GFMS, Brook Hunt, CRU, companies’ results announcements, Norilsk Nickel Marketing Department, estimates from company reports. Data for 2013 FY
6 Colour palette Global Reach: Regions and Clients
35 204 108 221 176 237 The group benefits from strong in-house distribution platform in 5 international offices and Moscow headquarters covering all major markets (40+ countries) and customers (450+) 151 240 151 146 151 48 Sales Structure by Type of Client (2013)
0 226 0 229 0 234
Normetimpex 20 139 68 174 NN Europe, UK 108 214 Metal Trade NN USA NN Marketing 86% 14% Overseas AG, (Shanghai) Switzerland NN Asia (Hong 214 166 Kong) 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220 Industrial users Traders & Exchange
181 248 Sales offices 206 205 229 162 Norilsk’s Realized Nickel Premium over LME
2.5% 73 225 129 142 191 139 . Strong in-house distribution platform 2.0% . Cover all major markets 1.5% . Focus on long term contracts and sales to industrial 1.0% 2.2% users 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
. Direct access to the main markets 0.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
7 Effective Dialogue and Alignment of Interests – Anchor Colour palette Shareholders 35 204 108 221 176 237 Shareholder Agreement in place, new governance Shareholder Structure 151 240 151 146 system introduced and proved its efficiency: 151 48
0 226 0 229 New corporate strategy vetted by all anchor 0 234 shareholders, approved by the Board of Directors 30.0% 20 139 in September 2013 and being implemented 32.5% 68 174 108 214 Parties to the 214 166 Strategy update / execution guidelines approved Shareholder 5 175 0 190 by the Board in May 2014 3.5% Agreement 236 64 6.0% 236 149 28.0% 236 220 2013 dividends in line with previously announced
181 248 dividend targets 206 205 229 162 Interros
73 225 Conservative balance sheet management: strict Rusal 129 142 191 139 adherence to Investment Grade ratings Crispian Investments Limited (1)
Shareholders aligned on efficiency thrust Metalloinvest Free Float
As of June 30, 2014. Notes: 1. An affiliate of Mr. Roman A. Abramovich
8 Colour palette Target Dividend Payout 35 204 108 221 Dividend Targets Implementation of Approved Dividend Targets 176 237
151 240 On October 1, 2013, Norilsk Nickel’s Board of Directors 2013 dividends are fully in line with announced 151 146 151 48 approved the Company’s new dividend targets: targets:
0 226 Dividend Regular Special 0 229 USD1.1bn (USD6.9 per share(1)) dividends for 0 234 . For 2013 50% of EBITDA 9m 2013 approved and paid 20 139 (paid in 2014)* (minimum USD2bn) 68 174 Up to USD1bn from the 108 214 sale of non-core assets For 2014 50% of EBITDA . Additional USD1.1bn dividends (USD7.0 per 214 166 (paid in 2015) (minimum USD2bn) share(1)) for FY2013 recommended by the Board 5 175 0 190 of Directors on 25 April Difference between 236 64 236 149 USD7bn and all 236 220 dividends paid (including For 2015 special) for 2013 and 50% of EBITDA 181 248 (paid in 2016) 2014 (with a potential 206 205 229 162 deferral in payment of up to 20% of such amount 73 225 until the following year) 129 142 191 139 2016 50% of EBITDA and beyond
Note: 1. Converted into USD using FX rate of Central Bank of Russia as of the date of the announcement
9 Colour palette New Management Team
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151 240 151 146 Vladimir POTANIN 151 48 Chief Executive Officer 0 226 0 229 0 234 Chairman of the Management Board
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 Strategy and Investor and Sales and 5 175 Operations Finance 0 190 Development Government Relations Markets
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 Sergey DYACHENKO Sergey MALYSHEV Pavel FEDOROV Andrei BOUGROV Anton BERLIN COO of Kazakhmys 20 years of experience in Deputy Minister of Energy of Held senior positions at 14 years of experience with 30 years of experience in the finance the Russian Federation EBRD and World Bank Norilsk Nickel and commodity markets mining industry Held senior positions at First Vice-President of Member of Norilsk Nickel’s Held senior positions at Rio LUKOIL and other large Rosneft Board since 2002 Tinto and De Beers Russian companies 14 years in investment banking with Morgan Stanley and UBS
10 Colour palette
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Markets Overview 236 64 236 149 Markets Overview 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
Colour palette Preferred Metals Basket
35 204 108 221 Best performing metal basket, YTD Preferred metal basket for the medium term 176 237 Commodity price outlook
151 240 35% 60% 151 146 151 48 50% 0 226 77% of NN 0 229 23% metal basket 0 234 40%
20 139 17% 68 174 30% 108 214
214 166 6% 20% 5 175 0 190 4% -4% -5% 10% 236 64 236 149 236 220 Ni Pd Pt Cu Al Gold Crude Oil Iron Ore 0% 2013 2014E 181 248 2015Е 2016Е 2017Е 206 205 229 162 -10%
73 225 129 142 -20% 191 139
-30%
-33% -40% Nickel Copper Palladium Platinum Aluminum Gold Iron Ore Thermal Coal
Source: Company data, Bloomberg consensus, Citi Research 12 Colour palette Nickel Market: Surpluses are Being Removed
35 204 108 221 Major market trends LME nickel price and stocks 176 237 weeks of global consumption Nickel ore ban in Indonesia is having a major impact on the global Price, USD/t 151 240 market. 10 60,000 151 146 151 48 Nickel oversupply to reduce along with Chinese NPI volumes. 8 50,000 New projects outside China expected to ramp up in 2014-2015 to 0 226 40,000 0 229 offset some of Indonesian supply losses; but 2012-2013 6 0 234 underinvestment in new mines will result in fewer new mines 30,000 launched in the next 3-5 years. 4 20 139 20,000 68 174 Ni demand growth driven mainly by stainless steel capacity 108 214 expansions in China as well as healthy demand in USA and 2 10,000 recovery in Europe. 214 166 0 0 5 175 Above-the-ground inventories of nickel and ores are albeit 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 190 substantial but gradually decreasing as the Indonesian ban holds. LME stocks Nickel price ($/mt) 236 64 There is a supply risk that Philippines could follow Indonesia. 236 149 236 220 Nickel consumption by region, 2014E Nickel market balance improving 181 248 kt 206 205 175 229 162 (375 kt) China 20% 113 73 225 129 142 191 139 Europe & Africa (199 kt) (941 kt) 16 10% 49% Americas
(58) (391 kt) Asia w/o China 21% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Source: Norilsk Nickel, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg 13 Colour palette Growing Nickel Consumptions
35 204 108 221 China stainless steel production up strongly in 1H 2014, kt Other world exc. China stainless steel production 176 237 recovering, kt +5% 151 240 +13% 6,000 +8% 151 146 6,000 +15% 151 48 4,000 4,000 0 226 0 229 0 234 2,000 2,000
20 139 0 0 68 174
108 214
2012 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4
2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 214 166 2012 Q1 5 175 Ferritic Stainless Steel (400 series) 0 190 Ferritic Stainless Steel (400 series) High Ni-contained Stainless Steel (300 series) High Ni-contained Stainless Steel (300 series) Y-o-Y Low Ni-contained Stainless Steel (200 series) 236 64 Low Ni-contained Stainless Steel (200 series) 236 149 236 220 Primary nickel consumption (stainless steel), kt Primary nickel consumption (non-stainless steel), kt
181 248 1,600 600 +3% 206 205 +3% 229 162 1,400 500 1,200 73 225 400 129 142 1,000 191 139 800 300 600 200 400 56% 57% 48% 52% 100 200 41% 28% 29% 29% 30% 30% 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E Nickel consumption in China Nickel consumption in other countries Nickel consumption in China Nickel consumption in other countries
14 Colour palette Nickel Ore Stocks in China are Depleting, Price is Increasing
35 204 108 221 China nickel ore import from Indonesia dried out, NPI production costs are expected to increase 176 237 wet kt
151 240 10,000 151 146 25,000 +29% +27% 151 48 +34% 8,000 20,000 Spot Ni price 18,800 USD/t 0 226 0 229 0 234 6,000 15,000
20 139 4,000 10,000 68 174 108 214 2,000 5,000
214 166 5 175 0 0 0 190 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Jul-14 EAF RKEF BF Indonesia Philippines 2013 2015E 236 64 236 149 236 220 Nickel ore becomes more expensive in China Nickel ore stocks in China are depleting wet kt 450 Index 35,000 181 248 206 205 30,000 229 162 +171% YTD 350 25,000 73 225 129 142 20,000 191 139 250 15,000 10,000 150 +92% YTD 5,000 50 0 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 E
Filipino 1.8% Ni ore FOB Philippines Indonesian 1.8% Ni ore high-grade ore (Ni > 1.7%) medium-grade ore (Ni 1.3-1.6%) in Chinese ports low-grade ore (Ni <1.2%)
Source: Nieba, China Customs, Wood Mackenzie, Bloomberg, Norilsk Nickel estimates 15 Colour palette New Projects Unable to Satisfy Demand Growth
35 204 108 221 New projects can hardly compensate NPI losses Nickel consumption is growing 176 237 kt kt
151 240 151 146 100 151 48 250
0 226 0 229 0 234 200 50 2016 20 139 68 174 108 214 150 214 166 5 175 0 0 190 2015
236 64 100 236 149 236 220 -50 181 248 206 205 50 229 162 2014
73 225
-100
2015 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 129 142 2014
0
2015 2016 191 139 2014 2014 2015 2016
New projects growth Change at existing operations New demand increase NPI production losses (incl. effect on Indonesian NPI ramp-up)
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Norilsk Nickel estimates 16 Colour palette New Projects vs Production Losses
35 204 108 221 Production growth (y-o-y) Production losses (y-o-y) 176 237 2014 2015 2016 151 240 400 0 151 146 151 48 Indonesian NPI Other Producers
0 226 100 Other producers 0 229 Nickel West 0 234 Eagle 300 -100 20 139 Fenix Pamco 68 174 108 214 140 Koniambo (140) Cerro Matoso 214 166 Goro 5 175 200 -200 0 190 Taganito Punta Gorda
236 64 Ramu 236 149 236 220 Fortaleza Taguang 100 90 -300 (150) 181 248 Ambatovy 206 205 Falcondo 229 162 (40) Onca Puma NPI Losses 73 225 Barro Alto 129 142 191 139 0 -400 2014 2015 2016
Source: Wood Mackenzie, Norilsk Nickel estimates
17 Colour palette Palladium Demand Outstrips Supply 35 204 108 221 Rising usage of palladium in auto catalysts Russian stockpiles have dried out 176 237 Pd demand in emissions control catalysts, Moz Deliveries from Ministry of Finance stockpiles, koz +3% p.a. 151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234 6.1 6.3 6.5 5.2 5.5
20 139 68 174 0 108 214 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 214 166 5 175 0 190 Possible projects require feasibility study Palladium demand outpaces production 236 64 236 149 Supply outlook by expansion type, koz Surplus / (deficit), koz 236 220
8,000 181 248 206 205 229 162 7,000 1,000 73 225 6,000 129 142 191 139
5,000
2012 2013
2011 (500)
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E (1) (950) Production at existing sites Probable projects Possible projects Primary metal consumption
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Source: Companies’ results announcements, GFMS, Swiss customs data, SFA Oxford, Norilsk Nickel estimates Note: 1. Gross metal consumption less recycling. Investment demand is not included 18 Colour palette Supply Side Issues in South Africa
35 204 108 221 Africa controls 80%+ of Pt mine supply… …Operating costs in Africa are growing 176 237 2014 Pt mine supply Total cash cost (excluding by-product credits), $/oz 4E
151 240 1,400 151 146 (784 koz) 151 48 1,200 15% 1,000 0 226 (3,625 koz) 0 229 70% 800 0 234 (406koz) 600 8% 20 139 68 174 400 108 214 (377 koz) 200 7% 214 166 0 5 175 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 0 190 S. Africa Russia N. America Zimbabwe 90th centile 236 64 236 149 236 220 Strikes and mine closures tighten the supply… …and keeping the Pt market in deficit South Africa supply reduction owing to closures and strikes since 2011, Moz Surplus / (deficit), koz 181 248 -35% 206 205 Platinum 229 162 500 Palladium -34% 1.7 73 225 0.5(1) 129 142 0.9 0.3 191 139 4.8 2.6 3.1 1.7 (400) (450)
2011 Strike related 2014E 2011 Strike related 2014E losses and losses and capacity capacity reduction reduction 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Source: Companies’ results announcements, GFMS, Swiss customs data, SFA Oxford, Norilsk Nickel estimates; 1. Release of refined inventory by SA producers 19 Colour palette PGM Demand On The Rise
35 204 108 221 Increasing demand for PGM: global car production up 5% y-o-y in 1H 2014
176 237
15%
151 240
151 146
151 48 → 10%
Brazil
ASEAN
India
Turkey
Russia Argentina 5% Canada Weighted average 0 226 0 229 0% 0 234 S. Korea USA EU Mexico Japan China -5% 20 139 -10%
68 174 Growth in 1H 2014 1H Growth in 108 214 -15% Share in the world automobile production→ 214 166 -20% 5 175 0 190 -25% 0 0 10010% 20020% 30030% 40040% 50050% 60060% 70070% 80080% 90090% 1000100%
236 64 236 149 236 220 Palladium ETFs holdings change, y-o-y Platinum ETFs holdings change, y-o-y
181 248 koz koz 206 205 229 162 1,104 916 902 583 73 225 129 142 507 384 191 139 381 430 276 280 194 183 327 24 102
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD (520)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014YTD
Source: Bloomberg, Companies’ results reports 20 Colour palette Global Above-Ground PGM Stocks: Not as Much as it May Seem
35 204 108 221 Above-ground stocks: only half of Pd and a third of Pt is The market is overestimating the size of available 176 237 available for immediate consumption – at a right price PGMs stocks
151 240 Moz Months of consumption 151 146 40.0 151 48 12.0
0 226 0 229 10.0 0 234 30.0
20 139 68 174 8.0 108 214 not available for immediate 20.0 214 166 6.0 consumption 5 175 0 190 4.0 236 64 10.0 236 149 236 220 2.0
181 248 206 205 229 162 0.0 0.0 Palladium Platinum Rhodium Palladium Platinum
73 225 Not-For-Sale Stocks ( consumer inventory and production-in- 129 142 progress, coins, strategic reserves, etc.) 191 139 Restricted Availability (NYMEX & TOCOM, limitation on Norilsk Nickel Standard Bank monthly delivery volumes) Low Elasticity Stock (ETFs)
Possibly Available Stock
Source: Company estimates (June 2014) 21 Colour palette Copper Market Remains Balanced, Inventories low
35 204 108 221 Major market trends LME copper price and stocks 176 237 kt Price, USD / t
151 240 The global market remains fairly balanced - 1,000 12,000 151 146 151 48 expected surplus in 2014 less than 1% of annual 800 10,000 consumption. 8,000 0 226 600 0 229 6,000 0 234 Lower LME stocks as metal moves to non-LME 400 warehouses. 4,000 20 139 200 2,000 68 174 108 214 Copper consumption in US and EU recovering; 0 0 Chinese consumption still strong. 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 214 166 LME COMEX SHFE (L.H.S) Copper price (R.H.S) 5 175 0 190 Copper consumption by region, 2014E Copper supply / demand balance 236 64 236 149 kt 236 220 560 530 550 (4,408 kt) China 181 248 20% 206 205 229 162 Europe & Africa 180 73 225 (9,953 kt) 170 129 142 45% 191 139 (2,986 kt) 10 14% Americas
Asia w/o China (4,569 kt) 21% (330) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E
Source: Norilsk Nickel estimates, Datastream, Wood Mackenzie 22 Colour palette
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 New Strategy: Focus on Delivery 236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 Colour palette Key Strategy Milestones: Entering New Strategy Cycle
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 New CEO (since December 2012) and TOP-Management team 151 48 2013 Unveiling New Strategy (October 2013) 0 226 0 229 Focus on Tier-1 Assets 0 234 Capital and Investment discipline 20 139 68 174 Dividend targets 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Strategy Update – Focus on Delivery (May 2014) Increase in FCF 5 times y-o-y to USD2.4bn 236 64 236 149 2014 236 220 Release of USD1bn of Working Capital Approval of new downstream configuration 181 248 206 205 229 162 “5 in 4” FCF creation target Exit from non-core assets and non tier-1 73 225 129 142 191 139
Strategy Update – New Upstream Strategy to be presented 2015
24 New Strategy: Focus on Tier I Assets, Colour palette Value and Investment Discipline 35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 New Vision: Approved by 151 48 the Board of 0 226 0 229 Norilsk Nickel to deliver sustainably high return on capital by owning and Directors of 0 234 Norilsk Nickel 20 139 efficiently operating Tier I metals and mining assets located in regions with on September 68 174 108 214 high geological potential, where the Company can build on its competitive edge 12, 2013 214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 1 2 3 4 129 142 Capital and 191 139 Focus on Tier I Optimal Value Social Investment Assets Chain Footprint Responsibility Discipline
25 Colour palette 1 Refocusing on Tier I Assets: Portfolio Review
35 204 108 221 176 237 Tier I Asset Criteria
151 240 Large Scale High Margins Long Geological Potential 151 146 of the Region 151 48 (>USD1bn (>40% EBITDA Reserve Life Revenues) margin) (>20 years)
0 226 0 229 0 234 Polar Division 20 139 (Taymyr peninsula) 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Kola Division 236 64 (Kola peninsula) 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162 Chita Copper 73 225 Project 129 142 191 139
International and Non-core Assets
26 Colour palette 1 Refocusing on Tier I Assets: Unlocking Taymir’s Potential
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 Reserves/Production, years 151 146 151 48 Confirmed reserve base 0 226 Kara Sea Reserves >30 for development 0 229 0 234 Off-shore Reserves & Upside potential on 20 139 Hydrocarbon ~601 the back of existing 68 174 Resources resources 108 214 infrastructure
214 166 5 175 Dikson Unlocking Taymir’s Resource Potential 0 190 Taymir Hatanga Peninsula Joint initiative with the Government of Russian 236 64 236 149 Federation to unlock the full value of Taymir via 236 220 Yamal Establishment of “Accelerated Growth Territory” Peninsula 181 248 (special economic regime modelled on Pilbara 206 205 DudinkaДудинка 229 162 experience) Norilsk 73 225 Joint investments in infrastructure development 129 142 191 139 Igarka – bringing in Russian oil and gas majors and energy companies to the region
Novy Urengoy Arctic Circle Streamlining licensing regime – to open up the Airport Geological Resource “Definition” flow of exploration investments Sea port High Medium Low None Polymetallic ores Power Infrastructure
Notes: 1. Average for different metals 27 Colour palette 1 Release of Non-Productive Capital: Exiting Non-Core” Assets
35 204 108 221 176 237 . The list of targets identified and approved by the Board 151 240 Focus on Tier I Compliance 151 146 151 48 Assets that do not meet “Tier I” . Disposal processes ongoing, the first round of deals happened 0 226 assets criteria to be exited by 2016 0 229 signed and closed 0 234
20 139 68 174 Examples of Non-Core Assets 108 214 . Minority stakes in power companies (Inter RAO, minority stakes in distribution 214 166 companies) 5 175 0 190 . Airline companies (Nordavia, Taymir)
236 64 . Moscow head office building 236 149 236 220 . Mining assets outside of preferred metals basket Examples of Non-Tier I International Assets 181 248 206 205 229 162 . Gold assets, Australia (North Eastern Goldfields Operations) Deals signed
73 225 . Nickel assets, Australia (Honeymoon Well, Avalon/Cawse, Black Swan, Lake Johnston) 129 142 191 139 . Nkomati, South Africa (50% share in JV) . Tati Nickel Mining Company, Botswana (85% stake)
More than USD1.0bn of non-productive capital to be freed up by 2016
28
Colour palette 2 2016 Target Configuration: Optimal Value Chain Footprint
35 204 108 221 176 237 Assets Location Mining Concentrating Smelting Refining
151 240 151 146 151 48 Cu cathodes Polar Division Kola Division and Norilsk Copper Smelter Copper Refinery 0 226 NN Harjavalta Concentrator
0 229 0 234 PGMs in
Kola Division 7 Mines Upgrade concentrate
20 139 Nadezhda Smelter 68 174 Precious metals refinery
108 214 Upgrade Polar Division Polar Finland Talnakh 214 166 Concentrator 5 175 NN Harjavalta
0 190 Russia Nickel Smelter Nickel Refinery
Ni cathodes 236 64
236 149 Cu cathodes Upgrade
236 220 PGMs in & NNH & Kola Nickel concentrate Refinery 181 248 206 205 Mining operations 229 162 2 Mines Zapolyarny Nickel Concentrators Concentrator Smelter Ni cathodes Ni salts 73 225 Harjavalta Refinery
129 142 Metallurgical plants KolaDivision 191 139
Shutdown of Nickel Plant at Polar Division by 2016 – ongoing dialogue with the Government Upgrade of Talnakh Concentrator, Nadezhda Smelter and Kola Nickel Refinery Kola Nickel Refinery to be completely integrated into Polar Division’s value chain Low-margin tolling of third party material to be replaced with own feedstock
29 Consolidation of Smelting and Refining Operations – 2 Colour palette Economies of Scale and New Technologies 35 204 108 221 176 237 North-West Refining Complex Taymir Peninsula – Polar Division 151 240 151 146 151 48 Nickel Refining Center Talnakh Concentrator Upgrade: Capacities available for Norilka Ni content in concentrate refining of own matte, kt 0 226 river 0 229 235 Talnakh 13.5% 0 234 9.5% 125 65 125 170 Consolidation of Polar Division’s 2014 2016 20 139 Nickel smelting capacities Nickel concentrate volumes will reduce by 68 174 2014 2016 Smelting capacity, Mt Talnakh Concentrator 1.4x times(1) – prerequisite for optimization 108 214 Kola Nickel Refinery Harjavalta of smelting capacities (1980)
214 166 5 175 2.4 0 190 1,9 Kola Nickel Refinery 2014 2016 (Kola division) 236 64 Finland 236 149 236 220 NNH Russia Smelter Refinery 181 248 206 205 229 162 Accelerated shutdown of obsolete plant located in the city of 73 225 129 142 Norilsk (subject to 191 139 Nadezhda Plant ongoing dialogue with 100% utilization with own the Government) matte (1981) Nickel Plant (1942) Norilsk
1. Reduction in volumes of Nickel concentrate produced by Talnakh Concentrator will not result in decreased volumes of production of saleable metals due to increased quality of concentrate (in particular, nickel content) 30 Colour palette 2 Accelerated Shutdown of Nickel Plant at Polar Division
35 204 108 221 176 237 Norilsk Nickel Plant
151 240 151 146 Nickel Plant – the oldest asset in the Company’s 151 48 portfolio with high level of technological and 0 226 physical obsolescence 0 229 0 234 Subject to completion of a joint initiative with the 20 139 Norilsk 68 174 Government, Nickel Plant will be shut down by 108 214 2016, which would allow Norilsk Nickel to 214 166 5 175 streamline production footprint and improve 0 190 environmental situation in the city of Norilsk Old town Norilsk 236 64 236 149 Norilsk Nickel Plant Nickel Plant 236 220 Launch: 1942 181 248 206 205 229 162 Location: Norilsk
73 225 Smelting Capacity: 1 000 kt of concentrate p.a. 129 142 191 139 Refining Capacity: 120 kt of nickel per annum Ageing of equipment: 65%(1) Number of employees: 3 500 people
SO2 Emissions: up to 400 kt per annum
Notes: 1. For machinery and equipment 31 Colour palette 2 Kola Nickel Refinery Upgrade
35 204 108 221 176 237 Mining Concentrating Smelting Refining
151 240 151 146 Polar Division 151 48
0 226 Kola Division 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214 Parameters 2013 2017 214 166 5 175 Nickel cell-house 0 190 Refining Capacity 125kt per annum 170kt per annum
236 64 236 149 236 220 Electrorefining of Base technology Chlorine leaching 181 248 anodes 206 205 229 162
73 225 Cash Costs, 129 142 (20-25)% 191 139 USD/t of Nickel
Nickel Recovery(1) 97.8% 98.9%
Цех электролиза никеля ОАО «КГМК» Capital Expenditure Total investments: ~USD400mn
Notes: 1. Nickel recovery ratio for base technology 32 Colour palette 2 Production Targets
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 2014 (plan) 2016 (plan) 2018 (plan) 151 146 151 48 220–225 0 226 Nickel, kt 1 225–235 225–235 0 229 (225–230) 0 234
20 139 340–345 68 174 Copper, kt 360–375 420–445(2) 108 214 (345–355)1
214 166 5 175 0 190 595–620 Platinum, koz 615–640 665–690 (635–650)1 236 64 236 149 236 220 2,500–2,580 181 248 Palladium, koz 2,530–2,630 2,730–2,840 206 205 (2,585–2,665)1 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 . New basis for production guidance - from "Metals produced by Russian assets" (Guidance 2013) to "Metals produced from own feedstock" (current guidance) . Target volumes for 2018 – in line with the previous guidance (2013), with the growth of production from own feedstock (up 6% for Ni3) to overweight the effect of the exit from low-margin tolling operations
Notes: 1. In brackets – production targets for Russian Assets, including Kola Division tolling operations (similar to October 2013 Guidance) 2. Including the effect of Bystrinsky project ramp-up 33 3. Guidance 2013 included around 13kt of nickel, 4kt of copper, 15koz of platinum, 55koz of palladium made from tolling feedstock. Colour palette 2 “Margin Improvement” Initiatives – First Results in 2014
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 А Continuous improvement program B Impact of new production configuration 151 146 151 48
0 226 USD455mn 0 229 0 234 per annum
20 139 USD180mn After 2017 68 174 per annum 1 108 214 Cash cost reduction: 2014 214 166 Economies of scale: reduction of fix costs resulting 5 175 1 0 190 from shutdown of Nickel Plant and consolidation of Improvement in overall metal recovery factors smelting and refining operations 236 64 236 149 Lower variable cost due to technology upgrade 236 220 2 Labour productivity improvements 2 181 248 Incremental EBITDA resulting from improved recovery 206 205 229 162 ratios: 3 Improved recovery ratio resulting from Talnakh 73 225 Equipment productivity improvements 129 142 Concentrator upgrade 191 139 Losses reduction resulting from new refinery 4 technology implementation on Kola Nickel Refinery Energy efficiency
USD635mn Total effect on annual EBITDA in 2018+, USDmn: per annum
ХХХ - Annual EBITDA uplift, USDmn 34 Colour palette 2 Production Reconfiguration – Value Impact of Up to USD2bn
35 204 108 221 176 237 NPV of Production Reconfiguration Program (2014-2030)
151 240 NPV, USDmn (@10% discount rate) 151 146 151 48 1,770
0 226 0 229 0 234 1,220
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 (160) 1,380 5 175 0 190
236 64 1,320 236 149 370 236 220 280
181 248 206 205 Lost Tolling CapEx in Maintenance Net Working Cash Costs Improved Recovery TOTAL 229 162 Margins Reconfiguration CapEx Savings Capital Release Reduction (Incremental EBITDA) Confirmed Downstream Impact 73 225 129 142 191 139 In Nominal Terms: EBITDA impact Cash flow impact EBITDA impact (USD20-30mn) (USD1.5bn) USD45mn per annum USD350mn USD455mn1 per annum from 2016 in 2014-2016 since 2017 by 2017 per annum in 2018
Reconfiguration program (concentrator capacity increase) creates opportunities for development of additional mining projects
Notes: 1. With further upside since 2021 35 Colour palette 2 Valuing Corporate Transformation – Norilsk’s “Five In Four”
35 204 108 221 176 237 Target Cash Flow Effect from Corporate Efficiency Initiatives (2013-2016), USDbn 151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0.3-0.5 4.0-4.5 4.2 0 229 0.7-1.0 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214 1.0 214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 2.0 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
Reduction in WC Sale of Cumulative Other (Purchasing, Target FCF Effect 2013EBITDA (2013-2016) Non-core Assets SG&A Reduction Special Projects)
36 Colour palette Release of Non-Productive Capital: Working Capital Targets
35 204 108 221 176 237 . Recorded >USD1.0bn working capital release in 2013
151 240 151 146 151 48 . Additional working capital release of almost USD900 mln in 1H 2014
0 226 0 229 . Mid-term goal to sustain net working capital at ~USD2.0bn 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214 Net working capital, USDmn Key Levers Goals by YE2014
214 166 • Turnover of 5 175 • Streamline purchasing and ~180 days of 0 190 4,044 Materials logistics consumables • Utilize/sell unused materials 236 64 costs 236 149 236 220 Work-in-Process • Review work-in-progress 2,990 • Turnover of ~90 and Metals stocks limits days of COGS 181 248 Inventories • Reconfigure production 206 205 229 162 ~2,127 ~2,000 • Renegotiate contract terms Trade and Other • Turnover of ~15 • Use factoring to sell 73 225 Receivables days of revenues 129 142 receivables 191 139 • Turnover of ~45 Tax receivables • Streamline VAT returns days of COGS
• Secure large prepayments • Turnover of ~45 YE2012 YE2013 1H2014 YE2014E Total Payables from key customers days of revenues
37 Colour palette 3 Target Result: ROIC Enhancement
35 204 108 221 176 237 Invested Capital, USDmn 2014-2016 Strategy 151 240 151 146 151 48 15,351 . Assets that do not meet Tier I assets criteria and do 0 226 655 Non-Core Assets(1) 0 229 not qualify as core to be exited by 2016 0 234 20 139 68 174 108 214 2,990
214 166 5 175 Net Working Capital . Ongoing working capital reduction program 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 . Core capital to grow as a result of focused, highly 229 162 11,686 profitable investments in Tier I assets 73 225 Core Capital 129 142 191 139 . Project financing solutions will be considered for large new opportunities
YE2013
Notes: 1. Pro Forma includes assets of Tati Nickel Mining Company 38 Colour palette 4 Polar Division: Main Environmental Initiatives
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48 Modernization of the Talnakh 1 Concentrator: an increase in 2004 – 2011: - 5% 0 226 0 229 sulphur discharge into tailings 0 234
20 139 Talnakh 68 174 Concentrator 108 214 Shutdown of the outdated and 214 166 5 175 2 inefficient Nickel Plant located 0 190 right in the city of Norilsk
236 64 236 149 236 220 Copper Plant (built Nadezhda Plant: Expansion and in 1949) 181 248 206 205 modernization of smelting 229 162 3 facilities and construction of
73 225 sulphur capturing and storage 129 142 Nadezhda Plant 191 139 capacities (built in 1981)
Copper Plant: construction of Nickel Plant 4 sulphur capturing and storage (built in 1942) capacities
39 Colour palette 4 Sulfur Dioxide Emission Reduction Program
35 204 108 221 176 237 2014 2015 2016
151 240
151 146 SO2 emission reduction by 15%
151 48 resulting from Talnakh Concentrator 0 226 upgrade and shutdown of Nickel 0 229 Nickel Accelerated shutdown as a part of production 0 234 Plant Plant reconfiguration program
20 139 68 174 Improved air quality in the city of 108 214 Reconfiguration Norilsk resulting from accelerated 214 166 5 175 shutdown of Nickel Plant 0 190
236 64 Nadezhda 236 149 SO2 capturing plant 236 220 Plant
Full commitment of Norilsk to the feasibility study
181 248 SO2 capturing projects 206 205 Feasibility study 229 162 completion / Company plans to invest USD60mn 73 225 approval by the 129 142 in feasibility study in 2014 Investment Committee 191 139 – 1H2015 Next update – after completion of Copper SO2 capturing plant “Sulfur Projects” “Sulfur the feasibility study in 1H2015 Plant feasibility study
40 Colour palette
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Major Projects Update 236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 Colour palette Composition of Capital Investment Program in 2013 35 204 35 204 108 221 176 237 176 237
151 240 151 240 151 146 IRR 151 48 151 48 Skalisty and
0 226 Mining brownfields 0 226 0 229 ~60% 0 234 0 234
20 139 20 139 68 174 108 214 108 214 Talnakh Chita Copper 49% 214 166 51% USD2.0Bn Concentrator> Project 214 166 5 175 30% (1) 0 190 ~30% 0 190 Other(2) 236 64 236 64 236 149 236 220 236 220
181 248 181 248 206 205 229 162 229 162 Development CapEx 73 225 0 500 1000 73 225 Stay-in-Business CapEx 129 142 191 139 191 139
. Stay-in-business CapEx reduced through new project approval procedures
. All of Norilsk’s development projects are highly profitable based on the company’s internal conservative price scenario
1 Chita Copper Project IRR on the entire financing pack is c. 29.7%. Net IRR on Norilsk Nickel equity (under non-recourse financing) is c. 50-70% 2 “Other” include Monchegorsk Refining Plant upgrades, Norilsk Nickel Plant closure and other projects 42 Colour palette Priority Mining Brownfield Projects in the Polar Division
35 204 108 221 176 237 Additional employed ore In 2013 2013 On time/ 151 240 Key Projects Project Description IRR 151 146 reserves completed CapEx on budget 151 48
Skip shaft upgrade To maintain throughput 3.9 Mtpa 0 226 71.4 Mt of ore: 0 229 Infrastructure objects: 0 234 LOM extension – 20 years Taymirsky Ni – 941 kt exceeds Power, water supply, Next stage to be launched in 2015 USD96mn 20 139 mine Cu – 1,500 kt 50% water treatment plant 68 174 Total CapEx: ~USD640mn upgrade 108 214 PGM – 331 t (2014-2022) Main fan upgrade 214 166 5 175 0 190 To maintain throughput 6.55 Mtpa Underground 236 64 95.5 Mt of ore: 236 149 LOM extension – 16 years development and 236 220 Ni – 822 kt Oktyabrsky exceeds Construction work Next stage to be launched in 2014 USD59mn mine Cu – 2,340 kt 50% 181 248 Water treatment 206 205 Total CapEx: ~ USD500mn PGM – 635 t plant upgrade 229 162 (2014-2023)
73 225 129 142 191 139 Production facilities To maintain throughput 5.0 Mtpa 120 Mt of ore: Machinery and power LOM extension – 25 years Komsomolsky Ni – 870 kt exceeds equipment Next stage to be launched in 2014 USD56mn mine Cu – 1,350 kt 45% Power infrastructure Total CapEx: ~USD1.5bn PGM – 581 t Heat and water supply (2014-2032) facilities
43 Colour palette Skalisty Mine
35 204 108 221 176 237 Project Overview 151 240 151 146 Greenfield project 151 48 Production capacity – 2.4Mtpa 0 226 0 229 Ore reserves: 58Mt 0 234 First stage to be launched in 4Q 2014 20 139 68 174 (+650ktpa) 108 214 Total CapEx: ~USD1.8bn (2014-2025)
214 166 5 175 Construction stage – completed by 25% 0 190 Estimated Project IRR exceeds 50%
236 64 236 149 2013 CapEx – USD335mn 236 220 Facilities and drift mines constructed in 2013:
181 248 206 205 229 162 Power plant, infrastructure and
73 225 auxiliary facilities 129 142 191 139 797m Shaft sinking
Drifting 2 850m
44 Existing facility and drifting Perspective construction 2014-2025 by Q1 2013 Colour palette Talnakh Concentrator
35 204 108 221 176 237 2013 Project Overview 151 240 151 146 151 48 Project execution in 2 stages: Stage 1 0 226 0 229 Installation new flotation cells 0 234 Capacity – 7.7 Mtpa
20 139 68 174 Completion – 2014 108 214 Stage 2
214 166 Technology upgrade and capacity increase by 2.5 Mtpa 5 175 0 190 Completion – 2016
Overall throughput in 2016 – 10.2 Mtpa 236 64 236 149 2014 Overall CapEx – USD950mn 236 220 Project IRR - over 40%1 181 248 206 205 229 162 Stage 1
73 225 - is on schedule 129 142 191 139 Stage 2 - FS is completed - Schedule brought back by 2 years - Construction is in progress
2013 CapEx totaled USD180mn
Notes: 1.Excluding maintenance CapEx and including impact of debottlenecking for additional mining projects 45 Colour palette Chita Copper Project: Tier I Asset Next to the Largest Market
35 204 108 221 176 237
Key importers of copper 151 240 Chita Copper Project Overview 151 146 151 48 Russia 0 226 Large Scale: Revenue ~ USD0.9-1.2bn 0 229 0 234 Chita Copper Project 20 139 68 174 EBITDA margins ~ 50% High Margins: 108 214 Asset IRR of c. 30% China 214 166 5 175 South Japan 0 190 India Korea
Taiwan Life of mine: In excess of 30 years 236 64 236 149 236 220 RUSSIA Chita Sretensk CHINA 181 248 206 205 Chita Copper Project 229 162 Gazimursky Zavod
73 225 Project Status: Feasibility study is completed 129 142 Aleksandrovsky 191 139 Zavod Project approved by Corporate Borzya Investment Committee Krasnokamensk Tender on the project was Zabaykalsk MONGOLIA Manchuria announced
Existing railway infrastructure Chita Copper Project Naryn-1 (Borzya) — Gazimursky Zavod railway link
46 Colour palette Chita Copper Project: Attractive Returns Profile
35 204 108 221 176 237 Mining 151 240 Mining reserve – 294 Mt of ore 151 146 151 48 Cu – 0,7% Fe – 23% 0 226 Au – 0.8 g/t 0 229 0 234 Processing 10 Mtpa concentrator capacity 20 139 68 174 108 214 Production Cu – 66 ktpa in concentrate 214 166 Fe – 3.1 Mtpa of magnetite concentrate 5 175 0 190 Au – 219 kozpa in concentrate Infrastructure 236 64 236 149 Construction of new railway line Naryn-1 (Borzya) — Gazimursky Zavod: 236 220 25 % financed by Norilsk Nickel (financing completed) 181 248 75% - Investment Fund of the Russian Federation 206 205 229 162 Infrastructure construction ~90% completed
73 225 Key Parameters of the Project 129 142 191 139 CapEx ~ USD1.1bn (2014-2017), of which ~ USD0.7bn (2015-2016) NPV – USD2.9bn Asset IRR – 30% (Equity IRR over 50%) Project to be launched in 2017 Stage: execution Project executing - on time/on budget
47 Colour palette Chita Copper Project Development on Track
35 204 108 221 Stripping works at open-pit mine Concrete Mixing Plant 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220 Chemical Storage Facility Construction Wastewater Disposal System Construction
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
48 Colour palette Chita Copper Project: Sourcing Project Finance
35 204 108 221 176 237 Norilsk Nickel’s investment capability to be considerably enhanced by using innovative project financing
151 240 solutions 151 146 151 48 Potential Financing Structure for
0 226 Chita Copper Project Prospective Financing Timeline, USDmn 0 229 0 234 Total = USD1.5bn 20 139 Remaining CapEx (>USD1.0bn) 68 174 to be 100% funded on a project basis – no 108 214 further equity commitment of Norilsk 400 214 166 5 175 0 190 29% 300 236 64 236 149 Start of operations at 236 220 Bystrinskoye: Q3 2017 200
181 248 206 205 229 162 71% 100
73 225 129 142 0 191 139 Norilsk Nickel Equity 2007-12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Non-Recourse Project Financing
. Norilsk Nickel is considering non-recourse financing opportunities for Chita Copper Project
. Subject to successful completion Norilsk Nickel will consider using similar project financing solutions for large new opportunities and infrastructure investments (pipeline, sulfur, et al) in order to achieve optimal risk/returns profile and minimize equity commitment
49 Colour palette Capital Expenditure Targets
35 204 108 221 176 237 In line with earlier CapEx Guidance amended for the new projects and co-investment initiatives
151 240 151 146 151 48 CapEx Guidance 2014E-2017E
0 226 0 229 0 234 “Bolt-on” investments:
20 139 . Program for accelerated 68 174 1.5 108 214 modernization of Norilsk Production Complex and 214 166 Up to 0.5 5 175 Nickel Plant Shutdown – 0 190 subject to confirmation of the 236 64 co-investment with the ~USD1.5bn for 2015-2017 236 149 1.0 236 220 Government
181 248 . Non-recourse / project 206 205 229 162 financing – for “Chita Copper Project” 73 225 129 142 191 139 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.7
Base investment case(1) USD2.0bn per annum
2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E
Notes: 1. Including sulphur projects 50 Colour palette
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 1H 2014 Financial Results 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 Colour palette Health and Safety
35 204 108 221 Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR) 176 237 Life protection is the critical priority – target zero
151 240 fatalities. 151 146 151 48 0.81 0.77 0.76 0 226 0 229 Zero tolerance to any unsafe acts.
0 234
20 139 68 174 Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR) in 108 214 0.47 1H 2014 was down 38.2% y-o-y to 0.47 (in line 214 166 5 175
0 190 with the global industry average). per 1,000,000 hours 1,000,000 per
236 64 236 149 236 220 In 1H 2014 Company improved the monitoring
181 248 system of all accidents to identify high-risk areas
206 205 lost time injuries injuries time lost 229 162 and adopted new methodology for reporting 2012 1Н 2013 2013 1Н 2014 73 225 129 142 accidents in order to provide the management with 191 139 the most accurate data.
Source: Company data 1. LTIFR is calculated as the number of lost-time injuries per million hours worked 52 Colour palette 1H 2014 Highlights: Three-Fold Increase in FCF
35 204 108 221 176 237 Robust performance driven by the new strategy focused on capital discipline, cost control and prudent cash management with ROIC expanding to 20% from 17%. 151 240 151 146 151 48 Revenue of USD5.7 billion unchanged y-o-y amidst mixed metal markets with strong palladium prices and nickel posting recovery. 0 226 0 229 0 234 EBITDA grew 9% to USD2.5 billion with margin expanding to 44% driven by cost reduction across all business segments and RUB depreciation against USD. 20 139 68 174 108 214 Net profit almost tripled to USD1.5 billion.
214 166 FCF (before financing) increased almost three times to USD2.4 billion driven by higher EBITDA, release of 5 175 0 190 working capital and lower CAPEX.
236 64 Working capital in the last 12 months reduced by USD2 billion of which USD0.9 billion was released in 236 149 236 220 1H 2014.
181 248 Dividends for the full year 2013 in the amount of RUB248.5 (approximately USD7.1) per ordinary share were paid 206 205 229 162 in June 2014. The total dividend paid (including interim dividends for 9M 2013) in respect of 2013 amounted to
73 225 RUB469.18 per share (approximately USD14.0), which was fully in line with payout targets approved by the 129 142 191 139 Board. Leverage remained conservative with Net Debt to LTM EBITDA ratio reducing to 0.8x. Company’s long-term credit rating upgraded by Fitch to investment grade (BBB-/Stable) reflecting strong financial profile and constant improvement in corporate governance. Shut down of the outdated and environmentally unfriendly Nickel Plant in Norilsk announced in line with the new strategy.
53 Colour palette 1H2014 Segmental Reporting
35 204 108 221 176 237 Revenue (before EBITDA (before Change, y-o-y Change, y-o-y EBITDA Margin Change, y-o-y 151 240 eliminations) HQ cost) 151 146 USD mln 151 48
0 226 Polar Division 0 229 (Taymir 0 234 4,348 +3.2% 2,602 +8.0% 60% +3 p.p. peninsula) 20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 Kola Division 5 175 566 +5.8% 171 +81.9% 30% +12 p.p. 0 190 (Kola peninsula)
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 Other industrial 206 205 568 -20.2% (128) n/a (22%) -10 p.p. 229 162 assets
73 225 129 142 191 139 Non-industrial 531 -7.0% (30) n/a (6%) -5 p.p. assets
54 Colour palette Sales & Distribution Results: Strong Pd Performance
35 204 108 221 Base metals sales volumes: Ni down 4% y-o-y, kt PGM sales volumes: positive dynamics y-o-y, koz 176 237
176 151 240 165 151 146 1,369 151 48 1,324 134 128
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 321 328 68 174 108 214
Nickel Copper 214 166 Palladium Platinum 5 175 0 190 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2013 1H 2014
236 64 236 149 236 220 Realized metals prices: Pd price was up strongly Metal revenue breakdown: growing sales to Asia USD/t USD/Oz 181 248 16,898 1,541 206 205 16,401 1,433 5,149 5,202 229 162 Russian Federation 10% 9% 73 225 10% 9% 129 142 North America 191 139 25% 783 30% 7,743 726 6,969 Asia
55% 52% 49% 44% Europe
Nickel Copper Paladium Platinum 1H 2013 1H 2014
1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2013 1H 2014 Source: Company data 55 Colour palette Metals Revenue Practically Unchanged
35 204 108 221 Revenue dynamics, USD mln 176 237 Revenue unchanged y-o-y at USD5.7 bn in
151 240 558 151 146 537 545 506 1H 2014 due to a combination of factors: 151 48
0 226 • Recovery on nickel market and strong palladium 0 229 5,879 0 234 5,149 5,258 5,202 market performance; 20 139 68 174 108 214 • Higher sales volumes of copper and PGMs; 2H 12 1H 13 2H 13 1H 14 214 166 5 175 Revenue from metal sales Revenue from other sales 0 190 • Negative impact of lower nickel sales volumes Metal revenue breakdown, USD mln 236 64 and lower copper and platinum prices; 236 149 236 220 5,149 5,202 Others Changes in realized prices: 181 248 4% 5% 206 205 9% 9% 229 162 Platinum 19% 22% • Up: nickel by 3%, palladium by 8%; 73 225 129 142 Palladium 191 139 25% 23% • Down: copper by 10%, platinum by 7%;
Copper • Nickel realized premium over LME totalled 1%; 43% 41% Nickel
1H 13 1H 14
Source: Company data 56 Colour palette Growth in EBITDA and Improved EBITDA Margin
35 204 108 221 176 237 EBITDA increased by 9% y-o-y to USD2.5 bn driven by operating cost savings in Russia and RUB depreciation
151 240 against USD. 151 146 151 48 Total cash operating costs decreased by 8% y-o-y to USD2.2 bn. 0 226 0 229 0 234 SG&A was almost flat y-o-y: 11% decrease in export customs duties and 2% reduction in administrative costs were offset by an increase in other S&D costs. 20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 EBITDA (USD mln) & EBITDA margin (%) EBITDA bridge, USD mln
3,000 50.0% 45 236 64 43.7% 236 149 42.1% 45.0% 184 236 220 39.7% 40.4% (4) 2,496 2,500 40.0% (50) 181 248 32.7% 35.0% 206 205 2,000 2,494 2,438 229 162 53 30.0% 2,299 2,299 1,899 2,496 73 225 1,500 25.0% (31) 129 142 191 139 20.0% 1,000 15.0%
10.0% 500 5.0%
0 0.0% 1H 12 2H 12 1H 13 2H 13 1H 14 1H 2013 Metal Other Cost of Cost of SG&A Other exp 1H 2014 sales sales metal other sales expenses sales
Source: Company data 57 Colour palette Improving Management Control of Cash Costs
35 204 108 221 Total cash costs down 8% y-o-y, USD mln 176 237 Y-o-Y Cash operating costs were down 8% y-o-y: USD mln 1H 2014 1H 2013 Change 151 240 Cash operating costs • labour costs down 10% y-o-y due to effect of RUB 151 146 151 48 Labour 729 810 (10%) depreciation against USD; Expenses on acquisition of raw materials and 509 407 25% semi-products • consumables and spares down by 24% y-o-y due to 0 226 0 229 Consumables and spare parts 422 553 (24%) improved procurement procedures, Norilskgazprom 0 234 Outsourced third party services 225 297 (24%) consolidation, and RUB depreciation; Tax directly attributable to cost of goods sold 124 144 (14%) 20 139 Utilities 108 110 (2%) 68 174 • third party services down 24% y-o-y due to mothballing 108 214 Transportation 63 77 (18%) Sundry costs 51 41 24% assets in Australia and cost savings in insurance; Cash operating costs (before credits) 2,231 2,439 (9%) 214 166 • expenses on acquisition of raw materials increased 25% y-o-y 5 175 Revenue from sale of by-product metals (5) (8) (38%) 0 190 Total cash operating costs 2,226 2,431 (8%) owing to higher volumes of metals purchased;
236 64 236 149 1H 2014 Total cash operating costs, USD mln Largest components of cash costs, USD mln 236 220 Other Other Labor 181 248 2,431 206 205 $341 mln $729 mln 229 162 2,226 33% 364 15% 3d parties 341 services 73 225 297 225 129 142 3rd party 191 139 services 553 422 Consumables & $225 mln 10% USD 2,226 mln Spares
407 509 Cost of metals bought from 3d 19% parties Consumables & 23% 810 729 Cost of metals Labor Spares bought from 3d $422 mln parties $509 mln 1H 13 1H 14
Source: Company data 58 Colour palette Operating Cash Cost Breakdown: Flat Y-o-Y in RUB Terms
35 204 108 221 176 237 USD208 mln effect from the depreciation of RUB against USD (effect of translation to presentation currency).
151 240 151 146 151 48 USD102 mln cost savings across most cash cost items driven by the cost optimization initiatives.
0 226 0 229 USD102 mln – seasonal increase in purchases of metals from 3rd parties. 0 234
20 139 68 174 In RUB terms cash operating costs excluding purchases were almost flat y-o-y. 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Cash cost bridge, USD mln 236 64 236 149 2,431 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162 102 8
73 225 129 142 2,226 191 139 (70) 5 16 (208) (48) (6) (4)
1H 2013 FX Changes Cost of metals Labor Consumables & 3d parties Utilities Transportation Taxes Other 1H 2014 bought from 3d Spares services parties Source: Company data
59 Colour palette Working Capital Release of USD2 billion in LTM
35 204 108 221 176 237 Working capital reduced by approximately USD0.9 bn since the start of the year and by USD2 bn in the last
151 240 twelve months: 151 146 151 48 • Increase in trade and other payables by USD505 mln mainly due to increase in advances from customers;
0 226 0 229 • Reduction of tax receivable and growth of tax payable totalled USD432 mln due to increase in income tax 0 234 and VAT primarily on the back of seasonality; 20 139 68 174 • Increase in inventories by USD62 mln primarily due to Norilsk Nickel Harjavalta stock accumulation; 108 214
214 166 Net working capital bridge, USD mln 5 175 0 190 4,122 236 64 236 149 236 220 2,990 95 181 248 206 205 (186) 151 229 162 (360) (105) (117) 44 2,127 73 225 (323) (62) 129 142 Trade and other Inventories 191 139 receivables Taxes receivable and Trade and other payable payables
WC'1H 2013 WC'2013 Revenue Receivables Seasonality in Optimization of Increase of Optimization of Prepayments FX Other WC'1H 2014 increase -LME factoring tax payments VAT refund concentrate in terms of for metal sales prices NNH stock payables
Source: Company data 60 Colour palette Management Focus on FCF Generation
35 204 108 221 176 237 Free Cash Flow (before financing) almost tripled y-o-y to USD2.4 bn owing to:
151 240 151 146 • Reduction of working capital by USD487 mln in 1H 2014 vs. working capital increase of USD189 mln 151 48 in 1H 2013;
0 226 0 229 • Increase in EBITDA by USD197 mln; 0 234 • Lower CAPEX on the back of more stringent investment governance system and weaker RUB/USD 20 139 68 174 exchange rate and reduced infrastructure investments; 108 214
214 166 5 175 FCF bridge(1), USD mln 0 190 113 2,371 236 64 393 236 149 236 220 143 197 181 248 206 205 676 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 849
1H 2013 WC movements EBITDA Income tax paid CAPEX Other adjustments 1H 2014
Source: Company data 1. Free cash flow is a non-IFRS measure and is calculated as net cash generated from operating activities less net cash used in investing activities for the reported period 61 Colour palette Capital Expenditures Discipline Driven by New Strategy
35 204 108 221 USD mln 176 237 1,989 163 151 240 151 146 117 USD300 mln 151 48 182 - FX Effect 1,697 0 226 211 0 229 - Reduced mandatory Capex 156 0 234 164 335 - Investment discipline 20 139 192 68 174 187 108 214 147
214 166 5 175 981 0 190 884 851
236 64 491 236 149 236 220 1H 2013 2013 1H 2014 2014E 181 248 206 205 Mandatory CAPEX Skalisty mine Polar mines Talnakh Enrichment Plant Kola MMC Chita Copper Project 229 162 Total capex decreased by 44% y-o-y to USD491 mln in 1H 2014 owning to: 73 225 129 142 7% 191 139 • RUB depreciation against USD; 5% 13%
• Reduced infrastructure-related mandatory capex driven by new downstream7% strategy;
• Roll-out of investment discipline, improvement in payment terms and reduction31% in the price of selected capex items vs. budget;
Source: Company data 62 Colour palette Maintaining Conservative Balance Sheet
35 204 108 221 Leverage reduced to 0.8x Net Debt/LTM EBITDA Strong Liquidity Position as of 1H 2014 176 237 USD bn USD2.6 bn of cash and cash equivalents. 151 240 5 4.5 4.58 1.20 151 146 Available credit lines of USD2.3 bn. 151 48 3.99 1.00 4 3.51 1.1 3.46 Overall liquidity comfortably covers refinancing needs. 0 226 0.80 0 229 3 0 234 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.60 Proactive Debt & Leverage Management 2 1.69 20 139 0.40 Leverage(1) reduced to 0.8x Net Debt/LTM EBITDA as of 1H 2014 68 174 1 0.5 108 214 0.4 (2.61) 0.20 despite challenging market conditions. 0 214 166 0.00 5-year bilateral unsecured credit lines of USD950 mln raised from 5 175 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H 14 -1 0 190 -0.20 several international banks.
236 64 -2 -0.40 Company’s long-term credit rating upgraded by Fitch to 236 149 236 220 -3 (0.4) -0.60 investment grade (BBB-/Stable).
181 248 206 205 (2) 229 162 Liquidity and Debt Repayment Schedule Debt Structure USD bn 6,5586,558 Maturity Currency Collateral 73 225 3,5003,5004.9 129 142 ST 18% ST 7% 191 139 3,0003,000 3.0 RUB 22% RUB 17% 2,5002,500 Sec 20% 2,5212,521 2,0002,000 1.7 1,500
1,500 1,0981,098 LT USD USDm USDm 1,0371,037 928928 1,0001,000 0.9 83% 82% 0.6392 392 Unsec 500500 Unsec 0.0 7979 USD 78% USD 83% 100% 0 0 LT 82% LT 93% 80% CashCash &Cash 2014LinesLines 201320152013 20142014201620152015 201720162016 2017+2018+2017+ Availableavailableavailableavailableavailable Credit Lines CashCashLiquidity position DebtUnusedUnused repayments Credit Credit Lines Lines 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2013 1H 2014 1H 2013 1H 2014
Source: Company data, 1. Net Debt to Adjusted EBITDA , 2. As of June 30,2014 63 Colour palette 2014 Outlook
35 204 108 221 176 237 We reiterate our bullish view on nickel market. We expect it to be balanced in 2014 and develop a 151 240 151 146 151 48 sizeable deficit in 2015-2016 as the Indonesian export ban remains in place and unaltered.
0 226 0 229 0 234 We expect copper market to remain balanced with low level of exchange inventories making the market
20 139 68 174 vulnerable to supply side issues and recovery of demand in developed markets. 108 214
214 166 5 175 We expect both palladium and platinum prices to increase due to a widening structural deficit in the PGM 0 190
236 64 market, with palladium to platinum discount narrowing further. 236 149 236 220
181 248 EBITDA Margin in 2H 2014 will likely exceed 1H 2014 on the back of higher sales volumes, cancellation 206 205 229 162 of export duties on nickel and copper, stronger metals prices. 73 225 129 142 191 139 We expect CAPEX for the FY2014 at USD1.7 bn.
Working capital is expected to decline to USD2 billion by the year end 2014.
2014 Interim dividends are expected to be announced in the autumn 2014.
64 Colour palette
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190 Appendix 236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139 Colour palette Shareholder Agreement Highlights per UC RUSAL Filings
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
Source: UC RUSAL filing with HKE 66 Colour palette Shareholder Agreement Highlights (cont’d) 35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48
0 226 0 229 0 234
20 139 68 174 108 214
214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
Source: UC RUSAL filing with HKE 67 Colour palette IR Contact Details
35 204 108 221 176 237
151 240 151 146 151 48 Vladimir Zhukov Mikhail Borovikov
0 226 0 229 Investor Relations Investor Relations 0 234 Director, Head of Investor Relations Department Deputy Head of Investor Relations 20 139 MMC Norilsk Nickel MMC Norilsk Nickel 68 174 108 214 Tel: +7 495 797 8297 Tel: +7 495 787 7662 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] 214 166 5 175 0 190
236 64 236 149 236 220
181 248 206 205 229 162
73 225 129 142 191 139
68