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Downloaded 10/10/21 10:19 AM UTC APRIL 2013 J I a N D K a N G 1279 1278 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 70 Double-Nested Dynamical Downscaling Experiments over the Tibetan Plateau and Their Projection of Climate Change under Two RCP Scenarios ZHENMING JI Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China SHICHANG KANG Key Laboratory of Tibetan Environment Changes and Land Surface Processes, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, and State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China (Manuscript received 30 May 2012, in final form 7 November 2012) ABSTRACT A high-resolution regional climate model is used to simulate climate change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). The model is driven at the grid spacing of 10 km by nesting the outputs of 50-km-resolution simulations. The results show that the models can capture the spatial and temporal distributions of the surface air temperature over the TP. The so-called double-nested method has a higher horizontal resolution and represents more spatial details. For example, the temperature simulations from the double-nested method reflect the obser- vations better compared to the 50-km-resolution models. This is mainly due to the fact that topographical effects of complex terrains are detected better at higher resolution. Although both models can represent the basic patterns of precipitation, the simulated results are not as good as those of temperature. In the future, significant warming seems to develop over the TP under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Greater increases occur in December–February (DJF) compared with June–August (JJA). The increasing temperature trend is more pronounced over the Gangdese Mountains and over the Himalayas than in the central TP. The projection of precipitation shows the main increases in DJF. In JJA, it predicts de- creases or slight changes in the southern TP. The comparison between RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios shows a similar spatial distributions of temperature and precipitation, whereas the respective values of RCP8.5 are enhanced compared with those under RCP4.5. 1. Introduction Gangdise Mountains) and lakes (e.g., Nam Co, Qinhai Lake) are located in the TP. As the ‘‘water tower of Asia,’’ The Tibetan Plateau (TP), known as the ‘‘third pole,’’ the TP is also the cradle of the Yangtze, Yellow, Salween, displays the highest elevation and most complex surface Mekong, Brahmaputra, Indus, and Ganges Rivers. characteristics in the world. It is surrounded by the Mountains, glaciers, lakes, rivers, permafrost, and alpine Hengduan Mountains in the east, the Karakoram Moun- meadow coexist in the sensitive cryospheric environment. tains in the west, and the Himalaya Range, which sepa- As the ‘‘sensor’’ for global climate change (Schwalb rates South Asia and the TP in the south and the Kunlun et al. 2008), the temperature of the TP increased rapidly and Qilian Mountains in the north and northeast, re- (Kang et al. 2010) in recent decades. Warming could spectively. The altitude of the majority of these mountains lead to changes of agriculture (Qin 2002), ecology (Wu exceeds 6000 m. Many basins (e.g., Qaidam, Qiangtang et al. 2006; Klein et al. 2007), natural disasters (Yao Basins), valleys (e.g., Yalungtsangpo, Polungtsangpo 2010), hydrological processes, and water resources (Yao Canyons), mountains (e.g., Tanggula, Nyenchen Tanglha, et al. 2007, 2004; Ye et al. 2008). Many studies about the climate change of the TP have been based on observed data (Qin et al. 2006; Liu et al. 2006; You et al. 2010a,b). Corresponding author address: Zhenming Ji, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Building 3, Courtyard 16, Lin Cui Road, However, the meteorological stations are scarce in the Chaoyang District, Beijing 100101, China. TP, especially in mountainous areas. This limits the re- E-mail: [email protected] search that has to be carried out. DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-12-0155.1 Ó 2013 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/10/21 10:19 AM UTC APRIL 2013 J I A N D K A N G 1279 Previous studies had analyzed climate change in the et al. 1993a,b) and RegCM3 (Pal et al. 2007). The series TP using the results of the general circulation models of RegCMs were widely used to address research about (GCMs) (Xu et al. 2003). However, the performance of climate change (Gao et al. 2011, 2012; Shi et al. 2009, GCMs was not good enough because of the coarse res- 2011a,b; Ji and Kang 2013), extreme-events assessment olution (Gao et al. 2008) that makes it difficult to cap- (Gao et al. 2002; Shi et al. 2010), hydrology-resources ture details of the surface characteristics in the TP. On assessment (Wu et al. 2012), aerosols’ effects (Ji et al. the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs) can 2010, 2011; Zhang et al. 2009), land use changes (Gao compensate for the shortage of lower grid space from et al. 2007; Zhang et al. 2010), short-term climate pre- GCMs. Thus, the downscaling results of RCMs show diction (Ju and Lang 2011), and paleoclimate simula- more realistic climatological distribution compared with tions (Ju et al. 2007). the GCM outputs (Shi 2010). However, the errors, es- RegCM4 is based on the hydrostatic version of the pecially the cold bias between RCMs and observations, dynamical core of the fifth-generation Pennsylvania were still obvious in the TP (Zhang et al. 2005; Shi et al. State University (PSU)–National Center for Atmo- 2011b). spheric Research (NCAR) Mesoscale Model (MM5) Generally, the horizontal grid space of RCM is at 30– (Grell et al. 1994). Radiation transfer is computed using 60 km, which is largely determined by the GCM’s res- the radiative package of the NCAR Community Cli- olution (the ratio of RCM and GCM resolutions should mate Model 3 (CCM3; Kiehl et al. 1996), and the land be in the range of 3–5) (Gao et al. 2011). However, that surface processes are carried out with the Biosphere– resolution does not perform well over the regions of Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS1e; Dickinson complex terrain. Thus, much finer results can be ob- et al. 1993). The nonlocal boundary scheme is repre- tained by the double-nested technique (Leung and Qian sented by Holtslag et al. (1990) while the ocean flux 2003). Im et al. (2006) used a one-way double-nested parameterization follows Zeng et al. (1998). Convective method to simulate the present climate over the Korea precipitation is using the mass flux scheme of Grell Peninsula at 20-km grid space. And Wu et al. (2012) (1993) with Arakawa and Schubert–type closure (Arakawa investigated the climate effects of Three Gorges reser- and Schubert 1974) assumption. voir using two double-nested simulations. But relatively Initial and lateral boundary conditions were obtained few results were conducted with small domains and from the global model Beijing Climate Center Climate short simulated periods. Until now, there are few results System Model, version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1). BCC_ at the 10-km resolution over the TP. CSM1.1 is one of the Chinese models in phase 5 of the In this paper, we used a double-nested dynamic down- Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) scaling method and conducted simulations at 10-km (Taylor et al. 2012). It is composed of the following resolution over the TP. First, the model capability is parts: the BCC_AGCM2.1 atmospheric model (Wu evaluated by comparing with observations. Then, the et al. 2010; Wu 2011), which is developed from the NCAR projection of climatic change is displayed under two Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3) representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. (Collins et al. 2004); the BCC Atmosphere-Vegetation- The RCP4.5 pathway is a stabilization of radiative Interaction Model, version 1 (BCC_AVIM1) land sur- 2 forcing at 4.5 W m 2 in 2100 and it represents a low- face model (Ji 1995); the ocean and sea ice module of emission scenario. The RCP8.5 pathway stands for a high the Modular Ocean Model, version 4, with 40 vertical level of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario and levels (MOM4-L40) (Griffes et al. 2004); and the Sea 2 GHGs’ radiative forcing is near 8.5 W m 2 in the end of Ice Simulator (SIS) from the Geophysical Fluid Dy- the twenty-first century (Moss et al. 2008). This work namics Laboratory (GFDL). Horizontal resolution of represents an early high-resolution regional climate sim- BCC_AGCM2.1 is T42 (;280 km) and the vertical layers ulation over the TP that may contribute to better un- are 26. Previous evaluation of the model performance derstanding the impact of climate change and thus the shows good results in simulating the present temperature adaptation strategies for the local society. and precipitation (Wu et al. 2010; Zhang et al. 2011). Land use types are based on observed data within China (Liu et al. 2003) and satellite data of Global Land Cover 2. Model, data, and experimental design Characterization (GLCC) (Loveland et al. 2000) devel- The model employed is the Regional Climate Model, oped by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) outside China. version 4, (RegCM4) developed by the group of Earth The experiments are completed by two steps. First, we System Physics at Abdus Salam International Center for use a period of 150 yr (1950–2099; the first year is con- Theoretical Physics (Giorgi et al. 2012). RegCM4 is sidered as model spinup time) simulation (EXP1) over updated from the previous version of RegCM2 (Giorgi East Asia. In EXP1, the horizontal grid spacing is 50 km Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/10/21 10:19 AM UTC 1280 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 70 TABLE 1.
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